WEBVTT - Markets Pricing in US Strikes on Iran 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:13.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.920 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:22.000 on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:25.680 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:27.200 us live on YouTube. 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:32.000 We efforted Richard Haas yesterday we are unable to get him. 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:35.760 We have him today and we extend out here commercial 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:40.560 free for you. In a conversation with the President Emeritus, 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:44.879 the consun Foreign Relations and of course senior counselor. Was 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:47.000 someen of you partners with Paul Far. 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:47.440 More than that. 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:53.480 The single best clarity before the attack I put out 0:00:53.880 --> 0:00:59.640 on Twitter in LinkedIn Ambassador Has's essay in the Financial Times. 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:01.520 It's forever ago. 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:04.000 Richard. It was three or four days ago. 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:09.000 You wrote a jewel of short clarity of what to do, 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:12.319 what to hope for. If you wrote that essay now, 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:13.520 how would you change it? 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:17.720 Well, good morning, Tom, and thank you. Look, the United 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:24.280 States faced difficult decisions in the aftermath of the Israeli actions. 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:29.480 We chose the path of acting in this case to 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:34.960 do an intense but idealistically or optimally narrow, military strike 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:37.319 against Iran. What's so interesting to me if I had 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:39.880 to say one thing at this point. If you think 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:42.440 about this crisis over the last ten or so days, 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:46.880 the first week was dominated by Israel, it deciding in 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:50.360 the aftermath of October seventh, the weakening of Iran's proxies, 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:53.080 it was going to act against the Iranian nuclear program 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:56.760 and more broadly against the Iranian political leadership. Then the 0:01:56.880 --> 0:02:00.560 United States decided this was the moment to set back 0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:04.200 the Iranian nuclear program. But now initiative has passed to 0:02:04.240 --> 0:02:06.960 Iran for the first time in this crisis. It's the 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:11.960 Iranian leaders who control as much as anybody. How this 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:15.400 unfolds from this point on, And that's what's different. If 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.400 I were writing today, indeed I will be writing later today. 0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:19.519 That's what's different. 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:22.480 For the first time since this phase of the crisis began, 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:26.400 decision making, if you will, is in the hands of 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:29.240 Iran more than Israel, more than the United States. 0:02:29.440 --> 0:02:31.640 Investor has and I want to make clear here that 0:02:31.760 --> 0:02:35.720 Richard Hass redefined the international relations debate with the invention 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:40.760 of the Internet. At the Council Unfeigned Relations John Bellinger 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:45.320 at CFR, Richard Has writes a blistering essay with his 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:51.120 legal expertise. Does President Trump have the authority to strike Iran? 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:53.959 From where you sit with all your work back to 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:57.919 Northern Ireland. Did the president have the ability to act 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:00.640 from the executive branch? Or did you need to use 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.720 a different process with Congress? 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:07.200 And the president had the authority like all of his 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:09.919 predecessors if you look at the history of a modern 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:15.040 American foreign policy initiative, and foreign policy has decidedly passed 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:17.760 to the executive I mean, Tom, what was it sixty 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:21.200 years ago Arthur Slessinger Junior wrote his essay and book 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:25.600 about the impurial presidency. This is nothing new. Congress virtually 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:30.840 never ever fulfills its constitutional obligation to declare war, and 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:34.840 we have used military force hundreds of times in the 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:38.680 absence of anything so formal. So I just flat out 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:43.880 disagree with that kind of a narrow legalist interpretation. That said, 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:46.760 if I had been advising President Trump, I would have said, 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:48.760 take a page out of the book of President Bush, 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:53.040 the father push forty one. Do things with the internationally 0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:57.720 with building on the International Atomic Energy Agency skating report 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:00.680 of Iran, Do things with the Congress, do things with 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:03.640 the American public if you're going to use military force, 0:04:04.080 --> 0:04:06.560 people should come to conclude that you tried to do 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.600 diplomacy and at the end of the day you reluctantly 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:11.800 had to use it. But also, by the way, would 0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:14.560 have helped this president with his magabase. So I think 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:17.280 he should have gone about this differently. But did he 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:21.479 under American political tradition? Did he possess the authority to 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:22.080 do what he did? 0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:23.599 Absolutely, Richard. 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:26.360 As the world awaits some type of response to moren 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:30.080 do we have any good information as to their capabilities 0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:34.440 today from just their military capabilities into their leadership because 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:36.880 Israel has dealt a blow to their leadership, what should 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:37.360 we expect. 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:42.600 No, they're both good points. I actually think they're unlikely 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:47.279 to retaliate. My reading of the Iranians is they're focused 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.800 on regime survival. In some ways. This is the second 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:56.400 great difficult period crisis for Iran's leadership since their nineteen 0:04:56.480 --> 0:04:59.200 seventy nine revolution, the first one being a decade later 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:01.840 during the Iran Or War. So my guess is they're 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:05.400 going to focus on regime consolidation. Down the road, they 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:09.359 may focus on reconstituting their nuclear program. We have no 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:14.839 idea how much of their nuclear program is intact, but 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:17.520 I think it is difficult for the Iranian leadership to act. 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:19.680 They're trying to stay off the net because they don't 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:25.640 want to give signals for Americans or Israelis to target them. 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:28.760 They obviously have lost control over the airspace of their 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:33.200 own country. Their proxies are much diminished, so I don't 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:35.640 think they have very good options. That said, they can 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:39.440 still lob missiles at the forty thousand American soldiers in 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:42.279 the region. They can play havoc with shipping. It doesn't 0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:44.960 take a lot to drive insurance rates up. They can 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:49.120 do asymmetrical warfare using cyber or terrorism, so they actually 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:52.159 have lots of capability. You don't have to compete with 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:55.880 US be two stealth fighters in order to be militarily effective. 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:58.719 But I just think that the Iranians right now, their 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:02.279 priority in the short is not to retaliate against the 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:03.080 United States. 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:06.599 Richard Haus with US, we continue with Ambassador House Paul Sweene, 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:09.400 and I welcome all of you across the nation are 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:12.880 continuing that coverage. Here a difference this morning, the markets 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:16.200 are open. We will consider the markets across the arc 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:18.720 of the show. We thank Golder mount Avali from London 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:21.680 for being with us. Jumana Brasseti from Dubai, and we 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:26.240 continue here on YouTube and on all of our commute 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:30.839 our audio radio affiliates as well, and we say good morning. 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:31.680 Paul Richard. 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:35.080 For many observers, the American strike on the nuclear facilities 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:39.560 in around was a bold strike, a surprising strike. Does 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:41.760 that have an impact in other parts of the world. 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:45.760 I'm thinking about Ukraine and Russia, thinking about China. How 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:47.640 do you think those actors are viewing this? 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.960 It was surprising more in the tactical rather than strategic sense. 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:55.120 We've been talking for years that we weren't going to 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:58.200 let her On gain nuclear weapons or even get close 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:00.960 to them. What was surprising, for how tactically was when 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:03.480 the President talked about his two week last chance for 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:06.279 diplomacy to work that turned out to be a faint 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:09.720 or a ruse. I think it was surprising tactically, not strategically. 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:12.120 I think the rest of the world took note both 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:16.240 that the United States acted as well as how effectively 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:20.800 the US military looked. What was brought together was was 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:25.440 criite extraordinary. My guess is the Russians probably have liked 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:29.280 this crisis any time. They like when energy prices go up. 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:32.160 They like when the United States expends munitions in other 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:33.800 parts of the world. That means we don't have to 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:36.760 give to Ukraine. People aren't talking as much about Ukraine. 0:07:36.760 --> 0:07:39.280 I thought it was quite interesting at the G seven 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:43.520 that Ukraine almost seemed to be something of an afterthought. 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.120 So the Russians have to like that. My guess isn't 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:49.800 The Chinese are probably concerned about on the opposite side 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.960 of the coin, as a massive energy importer. They don't 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:56.400 much like instability in the Middle East, but all of 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:58.080 them have to be happy. I would think that the 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:01.119 United States is once again involved in the Middle East. 0:08:01.160 --> 0:08:05.280 That means we have less bandwidth, less ability to focus 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:08.560 on safety Stasia or Taiwan, or on helping Ukraine. 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:11.520 Richard Haass with us and folks, I can't say enough 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:13.800 about this. This is a book you can throw at 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:17.120 your smart alec kids, the college brats. They're home from 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:19.960 Oberlin and you throw this book at him, and you 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:24.320 won't hurt them because it's beautifully brief bill of obligations. 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:28.160 I can't say enough about Richard Haas's cry for citizenship 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.800 in America. I can't again, I can't say enough about it. 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:35.120 I'll put that out on Twitter and LinkedIn as well. 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:38.280 Part of our bill of obligations, Richard Haass is to 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:42.679 have a coherent foreign policy. We can go back to 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:47.480 clash of civilizations staggered a Zakaria in a post American world. 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:50.400 Robert Cappen coming up in a bit, maybe with a 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:55.560 Kissingerian realist theory. What's the host theory you observe at 0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:57.120 the State Department right now? 0:08:58.640 --> 0:09:02.319 Well, State Department Israel to observe. It's actually a sad 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:07.160 story over the last decade or two of the weakening 0:09:07.200 --> 0:09:10.240 of an institution, the hollowing out of the Foreign Service, 0:09:10.760 --> 0:09:14.080 more broadly, the hollowing out of our interest or capability 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:19.120 in terms of diplomacy, in terms of the whole mission 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:22.680 of the Agency for International Development, the whole promotion of 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:27.200 democracy and American values around the world. We have dramatically 0:09:27.240 --> 0:09:31.240 weakened one of the principal instruments of American national security. 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:33.760 We've then compounded a top with the hollowing out of 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:37.360 the National Security Council. This is an administration, I would 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:40.280 argue that is in some ways it's put itself dangerously 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:43.920 dependent on a top down approach to foreign policy, where 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:46.760 the president does things and quite honestly, the rest of 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:49.319 the administration falls in behind. I don't see an awful 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:52.760 lot of ground up analysis, but I do worry about 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:55.880 what's been now more than what decade and a half 0:09:56.440 --> 0:10:01.480 of the weakening of the diplomatic dimension instrument of American 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:04.800 foreign policy and national security Richard. 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:09.440 Some folks are even discussing, probably a small chance, but 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:13.360 still discussing regime change in a rent How do you 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:14.400 think about that topic? 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:16.640 A couple of ways. 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:20.720 One is I find regime change in the category of wish, 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:24.600 not a strategy. If Bibi Netsnahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:28.200 or Donald Trump said to their generals, I want regime change, 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:31.320 they wouldn't know how to implement it. Regime change is 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:34.120 not something you can design an operation to bring about. 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:38.440 Colin Powell used to say, the military military instruments do 0:10:38.520 --> 0:10:42.360 two things. They destroy and they kill. Regime change is 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:44.959 not is not on the menu. So that's one thing. 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:47.800 Second of all, you never know if you can bring 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:50.480 about You also never know what comes of it. You 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:54.560 know what would follow this regime? Is it necessarily something 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:57.240 that you want for all, you know, nuclear materials which 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.000 are clearly still existing around could get into the hands 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:02.760 of all sorts of groups that might be in the 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:05.040 Be careful what you wish for. So I take, I 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:08.760 take regime changes, unseerious foreign policy. If it comes about, 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:11.480 it's going to come from within Iran. It's not going 0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:14.800 to come, if you will, from Israeli or American bayonets. 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:20.959 Do we underestimate, ambassador, has the military violence of the 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:26.040 theocracy in Iran? The news flow to me, Ambassador, with 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:32.079 the respect of my colleagues, is so simplistic. Iatola theocracy, 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.640 the people of Iran. What's in between them? And the 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:38.520 answer is a harsh dictatorship. 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:42.520 Right, You've got that, You've got all sorts of citizen 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:47.520 groups that are uh, listen to them, the so called basis, 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:49.319 you know, the the guys who used to come out 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.360 with the sticks and beat beat up on the Green 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:56.040 Movement protesters. And then you've got formal authorities, uh, the 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:57.320 military and and. 0:11:57.480 --> 0:11:58.040 And so forth. 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:00.480 So this is this is a regime that has tools, 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:03.520 if you will, time of repression in addition to what 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:06.920 it can do as a more traditional marilitary In addition 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.640 to its its proxies. But this is a this is 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.160 a system, it's been in place now for more than 0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:16.200 half a century, that has instruments of repression and coercion. 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:20.200 Paul, I remember exactly where I was in the shock 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:25.480 of the hostages. Are you ready a country road in Pittsfield, Vermont, 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:30.120 on a cold, cold November day, walking down the road, 0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:33.480 trying not to slip in my two tone Tony Lahma 0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:37.000 cowboy boots, and we were in shock. Is a nation 0:12:37.559 --> 0:12:39.080 over the failed hostage event? 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:39.319 Yep? 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:43.520 Absolutely, Richard, give us the point of view of Israel here. 0:12:43.960 --> 0:12:45.720 A lot of folks are saying this might be a 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:49.280 special time for Israel to kind of reset the Middle 0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:52.079 East as it takes care of, you know, many of 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:55.680 what it perceives to be its enemies, including obviously a 0:12:55.800 --> 0:13:00.079 Ran most recently, can Israel change its position in the 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:02.200 Middle East or the balance of power in the Middle East? 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:06.680 Well, I would argue Israel has much improved its strategic position, 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:10.000 mainly through the weakening of Iran's proxies as Bola first 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:14.120 and foremost Amas secondarily, then through regime change what we 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:19.200 saw in Syria. Israel has improved its position against Iran, 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:23.640 but hasn't resolved it. By that, I mean Iran remains 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:27.480 hostile to Israel has capabilities. And again we don't know 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:31.720 how much of their nuclear components survived. For all we know, 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.480 a lot of them were parked in undisclosed location. So 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.240 Israel is not out of the woods there. And even more, 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:40.840 Israel's not out of the woods dealing with Gaza or 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:44.840 with the three million Palestinians in the West Bank. And 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:48.439 I think that's still the biggest strategic question. So Israel 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:51.600 has the Iranian dimension and still has the Palestinian dimension 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:52.280 very much. 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.000 Richard has one final question Paul and I in our 0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:57.760 broadcast yesterday, Paul, please help me. 0:13:58.320 --> 0:13:59.640 I agree that we. 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:03.839 Were thunder struck by the acuity and concision of our 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:07.720 Chairman of the Joint chief of Staff. I was blown 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:11.680 away by his report. Richard Hass you're the grizzled veteran. 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:14.439 What did you think of the press conference of our 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:17.160 Chairman of the Joint chiefs of Staff. 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:21.680 Tom He was impressive. General Carilla, the head of Central Command, 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:24.200 is impressive. Let me just make a larger point. When 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.720 I look at American society, I think there's two great 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:31.240 pools of talent one is in the American military. The 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:35.280 professionalization there is awesome. And the other is something you guys, 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.440 you have all deal with all the time, which is 0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:40.920 the best of American corporate leadership. These are people who 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.880 know how to run big operations and do it in 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:48.000 a really responsible, accountable way. So I'm not surprised when 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:50.560 I see great talent in the military rise to the top. 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:54.120 It is a meritocracy. These people are tested and they 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:58.720 are responsible for large numbers of lives. So I find 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:03.360 the post Vietnam American military is quite an extraordinary institution. 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:06.840 Richard Huss, thank you so much. Just send of you 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:10.040 partners and a course is definitive work. The Council on 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:15.280 Foreign Relations Ambassador House back decades to the diplomacy of 0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:17.520 a Northern Ireland solution. 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:26.840 You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:30.120 weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.840 Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:35.520 watch US Live on YouTube. 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:39.680 There is an approach that each expert in international relations 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.600 and geopolitics takes. We had Richard Haass with this earlier. 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:47.320 Ambassador Hass looking at the fabric of American culture and 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:52.960 extending it out across his treatment of foreign policy, Robert D. Kaplan, 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:57.520 over a stretch of over twenty books, just simply speaks 0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:00.880 of the map. If you're one of those believers in 0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:04.920 get out the map and look at it, Kaplan is definitive. 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:08.520 His new tour de force is Wasteland a world in 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:09.880 permanent crisis. 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:11.040 This is coming off my. 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:13.000 Book of the year a few years ago, The Loom 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:17.640 of Time from Morocco to Persia. Robert Chaplin, thank you 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:20.320 so much for joining us. I'll cut to the chase. 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:26.320 You say, technology has permanently changed our map, our geography. 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.840 Is that true of this war with Israel and Iran? 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:34.760 Yes, it is to an extent, because Iran is a 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:37.720 long distance from Israel on the map. 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:39.200 But yet the. 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:44.520 Israelis and of course the Americans have condensed that distance 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:49.400 through technology. The America excuse me. The Americans sent B 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.520 two bombers all the way from the center of the 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:57.080 United States white Men Air Force based in Missouri to 0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:01.840 bomb Iran, so that Iran is is close to America 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:09.399 in you know, in in operational terms, as you know, 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:14.080 as Kansas was to the Indian wars in the middle 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:18.840 of the nineteenth century. And let me just make one 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:23.240 thing very clear here. Yeah, people who are saying that 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:28.320 this could this could lead to another you know, forever 0:17:28.480 --> 0:17:34.680 forever war, Middle East quagmire, they're making a mistake of category. 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:41.680 Iraq is in different was in a different category than Iran. 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:46.560 Iraq was in the category of Vietnam and Afghanistan and 0:17:46.800 --> 0:17:51.720 Korea in the sense that it involved tens of thousands 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:56.440 of ground troops which got stuck literally in a quagmire. 0:17:57.000 --> 0:18:01.000 Here we're dealing with just air and naval sets. The 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:03.760 war could go in a number of ways. There could 0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:07.560 be blowback, but as long as we stick with air 0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:11.040 and naval assets, there's not going to be a quagmire. 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:15.080 There's going to be something different. It may be something bad, 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:19.480 but it will simply exist in a category different from 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:25.360 those four forever wars Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:31.159 Robert, what do you expect the response from Iran will be? 0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:37.520 I think there will be a response. It may take 0:18:37.560 --> 0:18:39.919 a few days or a few weeks. It may be 0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:43.480 a terrorist attack in Europe. It may be an attack 0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:48.919 by Shia, a pro Iranian Shia militia in Iraq on 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:54.880 US troops not too far away. There certainly will be blowback, 0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:58.520 but it's going to take a few months at least 0:18:59.000 --> 0:19:04.159 to really just whether this decision by President Trump to 0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:10.560 bomb the Iranian nuclear facilities was a wise or an 0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:15.640 unwise decision. It will unfold stages, and. 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:18.120 You're the loom of time, and folks, I can't say 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:21.879 enough about this is your single concise read on the 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:26.080 span from Morocco to the Eastern Arab world and over 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:30.200 to Persia. You talked there, Robert Kaplan, about the giant 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:33.960 of your academics, which is Clifford Gertz, and it's the 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:39.040 idea of culture described for our American audience today, the 0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:46.000 Persian culture, the Persian culture extant since the theocracy of 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:47.280 nineteen seventy nine. 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:54.280 Yes, Persia. Iran is not the Arab world. It is 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:58.600 not Iraq, it is not Syria, it is not Libya. 0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:03.560 Iran has been a nation state of sorts on the 0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:08.720 Iranian plateau for thousands of years. Iran was the world's 0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:14.639 first superpower and antiquity. You're dealing with a highly sophisticated, 0:20:15.160 --> 0:20:20.360 highly evolved organ you know, culture and civilization where there 0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:24.920 is not one center of political power, but multiple centers 0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:28.640 of political power. Uh. You know, I've been to Iran 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:32.600 several times. It takes two hours in traffic to drive 0:20:32.680 --> 0:20:36.000 from one end of Tehran to the other. Being in 0:20:36.119 --> 0:20:40.560 Iran is like being in Egypt or India, and that 0:20:40.760 --> 0:20:46.760 is it's overwhelming. You feel overwhelmed. So the so the 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:50.840 idea that you know that a singular attack on nuclear 0:20:50.920 --> 0:20:55.399 facilities is going in a linear fashion to lead to 0:20:55.480 --> 0:21:00.560 a regime change is far too simplistic. They're you know, 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:05.120 they're very very well likely could be a regime evolution, 0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:09.240 as I call it, but it will involve many other factors, 0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:13.640 and it will be internally driven. It won't be imposed 0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:14.800 from the outside. 0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:18.960 Robert, what do you think our the US strategy should 0:21:19.000 --> 0:21:22.639 be towards Iran at this point? Again, the over the weekend, 0:21:22.640 --> 0:21:27.199 a significant escalation and military action, it should be our 0:21:27.200 --> 0:21:28.640 strategic view. 0:21:28.880 --> 0:21:32.920 Well, at this point, we should try, as President Trump said, 0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:36.000 to keep it a one off that we try as 0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:39.040 hard as we can not to attack again, not to 0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:42.359 respond again. You know, if they're just going to do 0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:47.920 a desultory pin prick response like they did after President 0:21:47.960 --> 0:21:52.399 Trump bordered the assassination of Kassamsuleimani, the head of the 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:57.640 El Kutz force, back in twenty twenty. In January twenty twenty, 0:21:57.720 --> 0:22:01.239 I think it was there's no need to spawn, you know, 0:22:01.320 --> 0:22:05.439 the policy now should be to lower the temperature, not 0:22:05.680 --> 0:22:09.960 talk about changing a regime from the outside. Because the 0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:14.080 damage has been done. It will take days or weeks 0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:18.840 to more properly assess exactly how much damage was done. 0:22:19.359 --> 0:22:22.399 But the idea that the Uranians are just going to 0:22:22.520 --> 0:22:28.320 rebuild their nuclear facilities is very simplistic. They're never going 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:32.679 to rebuild it to the point that Fardeau or Natans was, 0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:36.399 you know, way before they get to that point, the 0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:40.120 Israelis will be able to attack them. So this attack 0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:43.720 really did do substantial damage. 0:22:44.400 --> 0:22:47.879 What do you expect Israel to do here? Because a 0:22:47.880 --> 0:22:49.920 lot of folks are suggesting this is a unique time 0:22:50.080 --> 0:22:53.440 for Israel here in terms of exerting and expending and 0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:57.920 its role within the Middle East and add to its security. 0:22:58.000 --> 0:22:59.359 Is this a unique time for Israel? 0:23:00.840 --> 0:23:05.040 Yes, it is because you know, Benjamin Netanyahu, love em 0:23:05.119 --> 0:23:09.520 or hate him, is a world historical figure. People may 0:23:09.600 --> 0:23:14.080 forget Clinton, Obama and Biden and half of the European 0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:17.719 prime ministers, you know, who will be forgotten in the 0:23:17.800 --> 0:23:21.040 course of the decades. But decades from now, people will 0:23:21.080 --> 0:23:26.120 be writing biographies about Netanyahu, you know, because he's been 0:23:26.200 --> 0:23:29.639 in power so long, and the way he was able to, 0:23:29.920 --> 0:23:33.920 you know, achieve tactical surprise in his attacks on Iran, 0:23:34.280 --> 0:23:38.359 and then I'll use the word manipulate President Trump into 0:23:38.440 --> 0:23:43.359 taking action on his own is is nothing short of extraordinary. 0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:47.640 I think with these the smart thing for the Israelis 0:23:47.680 --> 0:23:50.800 to do now, now that they got help from the US, 0:23:51.160 --> 0:23:54.439 is to give the US something that is start the 0:23:54.560 --> 0:23:57.200 process of withdrawing from Gaza. 0:23:58.440 --> 0:24:00.680 Robert Kevin one final question, and one's going to run 0:24:00.680 --> 0:24:02.440 on with the day. And again, folks, I can't say 0:24:02.520 --> 0:24:06.400 enough about Wasteland. Robert Caplin's new effort in The Loom 0:24:06.440 --> 0:24:08.719 of Time, my book of the year. You wrote a 0:24:08.760 --> 0:24:12.119 monograph I'm going to call it The Tragic Mind, taking 0:24:12.200 --> 0:24:16.120 us back to Greek mythology and how we need tragedy 0:24:16.160 --> 0:24:20.840 to move forward. Does President Trump have a tragic mind 0:24:21.600 --> 0:24:24.760 in there somewhere? Is there a philosophy of tragedy? 0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:28.119 Is a foundation strength? Very hard? 0:24:28.440 --> 0:24:32.439 Yeah, Tom, that's a very hard question to answer. Because 0:24:32.480 --> 0:24:35.919 I don't sense it. I think he's too vain and 0:24:36.080 --> 0:24:40.520 superficial to really have a deeply, a deeply developed sense 0:24:40.560 --> 0:24:44.240 of tragedy. But I could be wrong. I could be 0:24:44.400 --> 0:24:48.560