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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It's be Joey P joe P Zapia. And

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty three NFL season has come to a close.

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Speaker 1: The super Bowl is in the books, but that means

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Speaker 1: we can open the books for the twenty twenty four

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Speaker 1: NFL season. And it's never too early to look ahead

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Speaker 1: because sometimes there's some amazing values on the board that

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Speaker 1: we could start to bet on, start to invest in

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Speaker 1: already before the draft, before the combine, before anything even

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Speaker 1: free agency. Andrew Erickson and I are going to take

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Speaker 1: a look today and we're going to start picking apart

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Speaker 1: some potential values we want you to invest in, because Andrew,

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Speaker 1: this is a time of year where last year, if

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Speaker 1: you go back, I made a ton of wagers here

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Speaker 1: in this span that turned out to be very fruitful ones.

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Speaker 1: It's a way to invest in things that you think

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Speaker 1: are going to be good or better than the odds

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Speaker 1: that are currently out there, and then if you don't

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Speaker 1: want to see those all the way to the end,

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Speaker 1: some places will give you that cash out option. So

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Speaker 1: to me, when you're looking at things like MVP Conference Champion,

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, etc. These are great opportunities to kind of

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Speaker 1: throw some money early before some adjustments are made, especially

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Speaker 1: if you feel like you have a beat on what

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four NFL is gonna look like.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm going to bet on NFL stuff rather

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Speaker 2: than MLB or NBA or this other thing people are

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Speaker 2: telling me about. I think it's called hockey. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm throwing my hat in the ring trying to get

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Speaker 2: in some of these early bets and some of these

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Speaker 2: late values, because I think you're just gonna see the

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Speaker 2: market move, especially off of transactions where we have coming up,

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Speaker 2: NFL free agency, the NFL Draft, and teams are just

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Speaker 2: going to naturally all try to get better over that span.

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Speaker 2: So you can kind of beat the punch of some

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Speaker 2: of these teams where it's like, well, this team has

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Speaker 2: a ton of cap room, they're gonna add more players,

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Speaker 2: and therefore they're going to look better on paper, where

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Speaker 2: this team is gonna look worse. Then they're gonna see

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Speaker 2: the odds move in those types of directions. So it's

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Speaker 2: better to get ahead of the game. Now, get some

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Speaker 2: and try to find some of that early value. I

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Speaker 2: think that's really more of big it's less about being correct,

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Speaker 2: I mean, because obviously so much can happen between now

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Speaker 2: and then. But like you said, like building a portfolio

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Speaker 2: where the odds are going to move in my favor,

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Speaker 2: and that's how I'm going to approach it rather than, oh,

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Speaker 2: I need to be right. You know, when we're sitting

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Speaker 2: here in February talking about the NFL after the Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl just ended, it's.

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Speaker 1: A much more of a stock market feel, and that's

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna look at today. And it's a fun

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Speaker 1: time to do that. And speaking of fun, we're going

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Speaker 1: to a hockey game next Thursday, you and I Nashville Predators,

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Speaker 1: and I'm looking forward to that. Hockey is the best

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Speaker 1: live sport period. End of story there. I said it.

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Speaker 1: Have you been to a hockey game before in your life?

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Speaker 1: You had to if you're from New England, right, it

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Speaker 1: had to have made it to a hockey game.

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Speaker 3: I've been to a Bruns a game with Bruns game

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Speaker 3: last It was fun.

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Speaker 1: It's a good time. So we'll be doing some baseball

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Speaker 1: betting here on the channel too. Welsh and I have

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Speaker 1: some incredible bets. We've already been talking about it on

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Speaker 1: our MLB channel. If you haven't, make sure you subscribe

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Speaker 1: to Fantasy Pros MLB because we always talk betting every

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Speaker 1: single day over there too. Once leading off starts, but

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Speaker 1: speaking about giving away fun things, we have a winner

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Speaker 1: for our one year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: and the winner is Bronco Jim. Congratulations Bronco Jim. Fantastic name.

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Speaker 1: By the way, Get in touch with us Bronco over

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Speaker 1: at customer support mail bag at Betting Pros, not Fantasy Pros,

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Speaker 1: that's my bad mail bag at Betting Pros dot com.

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Speaker 1: process for you as soon as possible. So Bronco Jim,

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Speaker 1: hit us up mailbag at Bettingpros dot com again. Be

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Speaker 1: like Bronco, drop your comments below, subscribe to the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros channel and you might be the next Bronco Jim

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Speaker 1: or Bronco Joe or Bronco Steve or Bronco Jane. Who knows.

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Speaker 1: So go ahead do that and bring that bell for

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Speaker 1: drops and if you're the winner of the next big

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Speaker 1: premium VP giveaway. Also, don't forget about fast break bets

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Speaker 1: every single Monday, Wednesday, Friday NBA with Matt Modaie he's

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Speaker 1: our man. And by the way, I got to do

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Speaker 1: a show with Matt and no one ever told me

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Speaker 1: his name was pronounced Modi, so I've been saying Mody

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Speaker 1: all these months, So I'm an idiot. But if you're

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Speaker 1: watching the channel, you probably do that already. Anyway, let's

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Speaker 1: get to NFL. Andrew ericson, Let's start with the conference champions.

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Speaker 1: Looking at the big board right now, Cancelity Chiefs at

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Speaker 1: the top of the AFC plus three fifty. These are

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Speaker 1: pretty good odds here for the defending champs, and they

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Speaker 1: have motivation. They have it in their sites, Andrew, if

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Speaker 1: you watch the post game after the Super Bowl, they

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Speaker 1: know what they're doing. They know back to back is hard,

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Speaker 1: they know three peat is near impossible. They want it,

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Speaker 1: They're motivated, and they just might be the team to

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Speaker 1: do it, especially with a good free agency. The Baltimore

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Speaker 1: Ravens are plus four to sixty, the Bills at plus

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Speaker 1: six to fifty. Then you get the Bengals at seven hundred,

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins at eleven, the Texans at fourteen, and if

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Speaker 1: you like the Jets and the bounce back at sixteen hundred. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm listening. Aaron Rodgers is great, but again, to win

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Speaker 1: the conference championship, Aaron Rodgers will have to win a

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Speaker 1: playoff game, and that sometimes it's a little hard to

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Speaker 1: come by. Maybe I'll pick up some shade that I

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Speaker 1: just threw Andrew. Let's talk about the AFC. To me,

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Speaker 1: the favorite makes sense. Plus three to fifty is a

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Speaker 1: really good wager for a team that I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: won the Super Bowl this year, not at its best,

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Speaker 1: but with a great defense and a great quarterback and

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Speaker 1: the will to win. I think the Chiefs could do that. Again,

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Speaker 1: who's your favorite of the favorites?

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Speaker 2: I like the Bengals the most. And that's going to

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Speaker 2: be a recurring theme on this show. We're talking about

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Speaker 2: the love for the Bengals because I think that last

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Speaker 2: year was they all got hurt and that's why nothing

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Speaker 2: really worked out. You know, people asked me a lot

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Speaker 2: of the time, like, oh, how are your fantasy teams?

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Speaker 2: I was like, well, I had a lot of Bengals players,

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it wasn't good, Like a lot of my league.

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Speaker 1: Felt good at the time, Andrew it felt good at

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Speaker 1: the time.

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Speaker 2: So I'm breaking out the neuralizer. I'm forgetting all about

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Speaker 2: the injuries and what happened last year drafting the Cincinnati

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Speaker 2: Bengals players in fantasy making bets on them. Jamar Chase

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Speaker 2: Offensive Player of the Year, Joe Burrow MVP. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: forget all about it, and I'm just gonna go right

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Speaker 2: back to it because i think this team can bounce back.

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Speaker 2: When you're looking at the AFC contenders. Look, the Bengals

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Speaker 2: have had success against the Chiefs in the past, They've

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Speaker 2: had success against the Buffalo Bills, and the Ravens are

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Speaker 2: a team where this was the Ravens year and the

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Speaker 2: Ravens kind of blew it, like they had the perfect

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Speaker 2: storm in terms of they had the MVP quarterback play,

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Speaker 2: they had an elite defense playing at an elite level,

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Speaker 2: but then they lost their coordinators. They have a lot

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Speaker 2: of guys that need to sign in free agency. The

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Speaker 2: Bengals are in a favorable cap situation, like they have

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Speaker 2: the salary cap availability and potentially more health after how

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Speaker 2: injured they were last year, to have better injury luck

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Speaker 2: to be able to push the chips in on this

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four season where the Chiefs I think are

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Speaker 2: still a little bit vulnerable. Like the Chiefs winning the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl obviously was crazy based on how I play

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Speaker 2: it throughout the year, But is that just going to

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Speaker 2: go away? Are they just gonna instantly be better? Are

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Speaker 2: they going to have to go through some struggles again?

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Speaker 2: Is their defense gonna be as elite as it was

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Speaker 2: last year? I don't think so. So for me, the

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Speaker 2: Bengals are the team that I want to buy the

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Speaker 2: dip on after last year just basically blew up in flames.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to buy the dip in the better odds

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Speaker 2: that you're getting this year versus last year.

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Speaker 1: I agree. In fact, they're my favorite. I consider them

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Speaker 1: a long shot at seven to one, because the odds

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Speaker 1: are telling me they're a bit of a long shot.

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Speaker 1: So it's interesting that neither of us went to the

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Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens or the Bills, but we went right from

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Speaker 1: Kansas City to the Bengals, And to me, it feels

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Speaker 1: like this Andrew, I would bet two to three units

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Speaker 1: on the big favorite Chiefs because at three and a

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Speaker 1: half to one, that's still really good odds, and then

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Speaker 1: one to two on the Bengals. I think that's my

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Speaker 1: approach here. I also think the Bengals are team that

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Speaker 1: could turn things around very quickly with a good free agency,

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Speaker 1: with a good draft, with some restructuring. Here of the

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Speaker 1: team just a little bit. You saw them compete even

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Speaker 1: when Joe Burrow wasn't there, which I thought was really

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Speaker 1: important to the team. Really didn't fold up the tents

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Speaker 1: and quit on the coach, and oftentimes you see that happen,

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Speaker 1: it didn't happen. I think that's important. I also think

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Speaker 1: it's important that, as you mentioned, Joe Burrow can beat

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Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. He's shown you can go on the

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Speaker 1: road and beat the Bills, go on the road, beat

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Like that's important stuff here, that's big boy stuff,

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Speaker 1: and Joe Burrow's capable of that. He just needs to

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Speaker 1: be healthy. The other team that I'm curious about, it's

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Speaker 1: a bit of a long shot, but it's a winnable division.

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Speaker 1: And if Anthony Richardson is healthy and plays to his

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Speaker 1: abilities and develops quickly plus twenty four hundred, the Indianapolis

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Speaker 1: Colts are team that really intrigues me. Again, I know

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Speaker 1: the Jets are going to be a trendy long shot

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Speaker 1: at plus sixteen hundred, but I think the Colts are

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Speaker 1: even more intriguing to me. If they franchise Michael Pittman,

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Speaker 1: if Richardson plays well, he got Jonathan Taylor with their

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Speaker 1: normal off season, no contract disputes or nonsense, a good

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Speaker 1: NFL draft, a good free agency. I can see the cold.

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Speaker 1: It's making some noise in twenty twenty four. Give me

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Speaker 1: your favorite long shot in this group for the AFC

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Speaker 1: for that season.

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Speaker 2: That's for the Los Angeles Chargers, because I've already lost

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Speaker 2: so much money on them in years past, thinking that

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Speaker 2: they could win the Super Bowl with their roster and YadA, YadA, YadA,

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Speaker 2: but it just you know, now they finally have a

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Speaker 2: good head coach. Like that's the play here with the Chargers.

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Speaker 2: And it's actually crazy to think that a team that this,

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Speaker 2: that finished this poorly last year, is only sixteen to

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Speaker 2: one to win the AFC ahead of teams like the Jaguars,

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Speaker 2: like the Browns, like the Colts. So again, I don't

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Speaker 2: love the odds here, but still is a long shot

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Speaker 2: sixteen to one. Look, it's a matter of Okay, is

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Speaker 2: Harbob the key that unlocks this Chargers team? Like, because

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Speaker 2: you know the quarterback is talent enough to be a

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Speaker 2: to be the leader of a team that wins AFC. Like,

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Speaker 2: we know Herbert's got the talent and that's the big

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Speaker 2: question mark with a lot of these teams. Oh who's

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Speaker 2: the quarterback? And the quarterback drive them to the promised land.

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Speaker 2: We know that justin Herbert can do that. It's a

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Speaker 2: matter of everything else around him and the lack of

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Speaker 2: what's been there around him the last couple of seasons.

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Speaker 2: So again, as a team that's been super underwhelming basically

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Speaker 2: in any type of betting sense, the Chargers, maybe this

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Speaker 2: is the year where things kind of regress to the

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Speaker 2: mean load bit where they've always fell below expectations. Seemingly

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Speaker 2: every single day the last four years in a row,

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Speaker 2: they've fallen short of their win total. Maybe this year

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Speaker 2: they finally get over the hump and they do it

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Speaker 2: by a large sum.

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Speaker 1: My only problem with that pick because I agree sometimes

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Speaker 1: it's a different voice and Harball. I can't think of

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Speaker 1: a more different voice between Harball and Brandon Staley like

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Speaker 1: that could not be two different personalities there, And I

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Speaker 1: think that's a positive thing for the Chargers. My only

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Speaker 1: problem is the cap issues they have. Can they work

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Speaker 1: that all out where they can get the team that

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Speaker 1: they need in order to.

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Speaker 2: Cut Mike Williams And that's gonna say like thirty million

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Speaker 2: dollars anyway, But you.

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Speaker 1: Can't just cut guys. You got to replace guys too,

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Speaker 1: And that's the thing. It's like, can you do all

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Speaker 1: that efficiently via the draft via free agency? We'll see,

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Speaker 1: But I pick up what you're laying down. And in

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Speaker 1: terms of long shots, it's a fun one. I'm surprised

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Speaker 1: it's plus sixteen hundred Sillily the truth, like, if you

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Speaker 1: were asking me to handicap and it would have been eighteen

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Speaker 1: to twenty. So obviously Vegas is kind of covering themselves.

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Speaker 1: They think, just like your best horrorball, Yeah, you're show

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Speaker 1: me your best horrorball. All right, let's go to the

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Speaker 1: NFC switch gears here the San Francisco forty nine ers

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Speaker 1: or plus two thirty and folks, let me just throw

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Speaker 1: a number at you. Here, a little statistic that Joey

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Speaker 1: p Uncle Joey was looking at some history lessons here,

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Speaker 1: and I think you're gonna possibly be lighting some money

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Speaker 1: on fire if you go ahead and take the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers. Here's why the forty nine ers coming off

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Speaker 1: a loss of the Super Bowl. If you go back

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Speaker 1: since the year two thousand, it's only been one team

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Speaker 1: in the last twenty four years that has lost a

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl and made it back to the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: let alone won the next year. And that team, of course,

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Speaker 1: was the twenty nineteen Patriots. They lost in eighteen, came

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Speaker 1: back the next year and won against the Rams. They

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Speaker 1: lost the year before against the Eagles, but again that's

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady. So they kind of throw that one out

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Speaker 1: because when you're dealing with a goat that, really no

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Speaker 1: statistic is safe. But Andrew, I don't think we take

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Speaker 1: this into account, the losing of a Super Bowl, the

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Speaker 1: emotion of that, you know, the kind of the big

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Speaker 1: letdown after the long season. I know they're right now

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Speaker 1: the odds on favorite at plus two thirty to win

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Speaker 1: the NFC, but I am not going in that direction.

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Speaker 1: I am fading that hard. More to come on that

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Speaker 1: later on. Do you have a favorite in the NFC

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Speaker 1: that is or is not the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Eagles US eight hundred with the

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Speaker 2: Philadelphia Eagles. I think it's just a matter of we're

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Speaker 2: kind of writing them off after last year. I mean

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Speaker 2: they started last year. I know they were kind of

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Speaker 2: a fraudult last year.

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Speaker 1: Who lost the Super Bowl last year? Andrew who was it?

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Speaker 2: But that's that's right, the Eagles, Right, So then you

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Speaker 2: get them a year removed after they lein the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: This is a bounce back season for them. Again.

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Speaker 2: They were a team that started with eleven wins, they

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Speaker 2: had the number one seed in the NFC, and then

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Speaker 2: things just totally fell apart. Now they weren't dominating teams

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Speaker 2: like they were the year before. But a lot of

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Speaker 2: it had to do with the schedule. And it's something

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Speaker 2: that it mentioned with the Bengals as I'll just bring

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Speaker 2: up another point here. The Bengals are facing a last

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Speaker 2: place strength of schedule as they came in fourth place

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Speaker 2: in the AFC North. That matters, like where you end

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Speaker 2: up finishing in your division, that projects the strength of

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Speaker 2: your schedule the next year. The Eagle schedule is much

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Speaker 2: easier the season it was last year. Last year they

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Speaker 2: faced a juggernaut of teams. So again, they had it

291
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Speaker 2: was like every single week, it was the Chiefs, it

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Speaker 2: was the Bills. It was like and everyone was throwing

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Speaker 2: them the best punch because they were viewed as the

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Speaker 2: team to beat in the NFC. So again, that's not

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Speaker 2: gonna be the case here. It's gonna be forty nine ers,

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Speaker 2: like you said, and it's why it's so hard for

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Speaker 2: teams to get back to the super Bowl after they

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Speaker 2: lose in their conference. So for me, eight to one,

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Speaker 2: I mean the Eagles still have a lot of their

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Speaker 2: main pieces there. Yes, they're probably gonna lose Jason Kelcey,

301
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Speaker 2: but he's an offensive lineman, like they've been preparing for

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Speaker 2: him to be gone for a long time by drafting

303
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Speaker 2: offensive lineman. I still think Jalen Hurts can ball out.

304
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Speaker 2: They have the weapons at wide receiver between Smith and

305
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Speaker 2: aj Brown. The defense needs to be fixed, but the

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Speaker 2: defensive line is still really good. So yeah, there are

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Speaker 2: some pieces here that need upgrading, but I don't think

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Speaker 2: they're that far away that eight to one. I'm like, oh, well,

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Speaker 2: the Eagles have no shot. It's like, no, the Eagles

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Speaker 2: are gonna be in the running. Into that conversation, like

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Speaker 2: they were last year, where unfortunately things just kind of

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Speaker 2: fell off towards the end.

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Speaker 1: Of the year, especially if they can fix that secondary.

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Speaker 1: For me, it's the Eagles fixing the say if you

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Speaker 1: could tweak that fix that defense was also green last year.

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Speaker 1: You know, we keep talking about all the guys who

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Speaker 1: have come up from Georgia in the last few years,

318
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Speaker 1: but they're all rookies and second year players still, you know,

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Speaker 1: they need a little bit more time. As talented as

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Speaker 1: they are, they're still young, and I think that was

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Speaker 1: one thing I do think they can bounce back. They

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Speaker 1: got to get the coordinator situation straight now too, because

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Speaker 1: obviously that was a problem last year on offense and defense.

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Speaker 1: To be honest, I'm gonna go with the Detroit Lions

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Speaker 1: of plus sixteen hundred. It's my favorite of the favorites

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Speaker 1: to win. They are the second spot here. I like

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Speaker 1: the incremental improvement of the Lions every year. Right, you

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Speaker 1: go back a couple of years ago, they made big

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Speaker 1: time improvements, you know, starting to look towards a winning

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Speaker 1: season this year, a team that not only made the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: but won their first playoff game in forever. Then, of

332
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Speaker 1: course they got exposed they made it to the NFC

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Speaker 1: Championship game. They got exposed at the end of that game.

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Speaker 1: They were in control that game for the first half

335
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Speaker 1: of it. So you know they're good enough to go

336
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Speaker 1: in the road and beat the forty nine like you

337
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Speaker 1: saw it. They are a good enough team to do that.

338
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Speaker 1: There's some holes to fill, some things to fix. One

339
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Speaker 1: of them has to be also the incremental improvement of

340
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Speaker 1: Dan Campbell as a head coach of understanding. Yeah, you

341
00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:10,200
Speaker 1: can play fast and loose in the regular season, but

342
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Speaker 1: when you get to the playoffs, you have to tighten

343
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Speaker 1: up and you have to call things a little differently.

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Speaker 1: Take the points. We can get the points. I think

345
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Speaker 1: it's a learning curve for the Lions, and that learning

346
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Speaker 1: curve for me, has been very good in the last

347
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Speaker 1: few years for Detroit. I really like what they're doing here.

348
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Speaker 1: It's a new Detroit Lions feel. It's a good organization.

349
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Speaker 1: They've had good drafts. They've brought in. I mean last

350
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Speaker 1: year and the year before two back to back fantastic drafts.

351
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Speaker 1: Think about all the talent they brought in the last

352
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Speaker 1: two years to that team, everyone from Gibbs to Campbell

353
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Speaker 1: to Laporta, not to mention the year before Aiden Hutchinson

354
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Speaker 1: right like, this is a great organization I think now,

355
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Speaker 1: and I can't believe I'm saying that about the Lions.

356
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Speaker 1: Let's talk about long shots. Maybe let's go a little

357
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Speaker 1: off the board. You picked the Eagles, I picked the Lions.

358
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Speaker 1: Where would you go for the NFC? Maybe you want

359
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Speaker 1: to go deeper down the trough.

360
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Speaker 2: So plus twenty two hundred. I'm looking at the Chicago Bears,

361
00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:56,480
Speaker 2: who potentially be rostering a rookie quarterback. But what I'm

362
00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:59,880
Speaker 2: looking at here with them is their cap space situation,

363
00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,440
Speaker 2: the amount of draft capital they have. They have a

364
00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,480
Speaker 2: ton like we're not going to look at the Bears

365
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Speaker 2: two months from now and be like this team is

366
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Speaker 2: worse and the team that end of the season where

367
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Speaker 2: this team almost had a shot to make the playoffs

368
00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:11,320
Speaker 2: at the end of view of the defense started playing

369
00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,720
Speaker 2: an elite level. You saw the offense start to take

370
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:15,360
Speaker 2: a step forward. Now it's going to look different with

371
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Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback under center. So that's the question mark.

372
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Speaker 2: How far can a rookie quarterback bring a team? But

373
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Speaker 2: the defense is good again Again, it's a division where

374
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Speaker 2: there's question marks. Are the lines going to deliver. Again,

375
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,080
Speaker 2: who's the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. We still don't

376
00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 2: necessarily know who that is and Jordan Love was it

377
00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:31,200
Speaker 2: a flash of the pan or he can he continue

378
00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,760
Speaker 2: to progress? So the Bears as the team with the

379
00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,920
Speaker 2: longest odds in the NFC North, which is the worst division,

380
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,240
Speaker 2: I would say in the NFC besides the NFC South.

381
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Speaker 2: This is the bet I think that you should make.

382
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Speaker 2: You know you're looking at the Bears. I think they

383
00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:44,880
Speaker 2: can be a lot better just based on what they

384
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:46,360
Speaker 2: have at their disposal and what to work with it.

385
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Speaker 2: They're going to be labeled that's one of those teams

386
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Speaker 2: that wins the off season. So I think that these

387
00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:52,040
Speaker 2: odds are just going to get shorter as be closer

388
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Speaker 2: to the season. And then the other team that's just

389
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,040
Speaker 2: the long shot would be the Arizona Cardinals. And this

390
00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,600
Speaker 2: is just a bet on again a team that has

391
00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 2: a lot of cap space, a team has a lot

392
00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,320
Speaker 2: of draft capital, and the team has Kyler Murray at quarterback. Like,

393
00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 2: look at all these other teams with these long shot odd's,

394
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,600
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray's by far the best quarterback on any of

395
00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:12,120
Speaker 2: these teams. At plus four thousand. Can Kyler Murray rise

396
00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 2: above the other quarterbacks in his division?

397
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,440
Speaker 3: Possibly? Yeah? Like how much better is Brock Purdy than

398
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:17,040
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray?

399
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 2: Is he?

400
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:18,720
Speaker 3: I don't necessarily think so.

401
00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,080
Speaker 2: So for me, Kyler Murray fully healthy another year with

402
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,000
Speaker 2: Jonathan Gannon taking over that defense.

403
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:25,440
Speaker 3: The defense was horrible last year.

404
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,160
Speaker 2: Even if they can just be average under Jonathan again,

405
00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:30,080
Speaker 2: I think this team could make some noise. So I

406
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:32,080
Speaker 2: like Arizona Cardner's a lot as a long shot.

407
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,080
Speaker 1: All right, I'm not going to go quite as down

408
00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 1: the trough as ericson. I don't like the NFC. I

409
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,800
Speaker 1: don't think there's a lot of real true competitors, But

410
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,040
Speaker 1: I do think outside the Lions in that same division,

411
00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,760
Speaker 1: the Packers are interesting. Packer's the youngest team in the NFL.

412
00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 1: Last year, made the playoffs, made a run of the

413
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,360
Speaker 1: playoffs too, huge victory in Dallas for them, went out

414
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 1: to San Francisco again, had that game in check, they

415
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:55,760
Speaker 1: had it in their hands, they let it slip through

416
00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:57,800
Speaker 1: their fingers. But the thing that I took away from

417
00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 1: that you talked about is Jordan Love a flash in

418
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,680
Speaker 1: the pan man, Andrew. When I listened to Jordan Love

419
00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:06,280
Speaker 1: or in that post game, I saw nothing but accountability,

420
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:08,639
Speaker 1: and I thought that goes a long way in that

421
00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,320
Speaker 1: locker room. That's what leader's supposed to do. And he's

422
00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,359
Speaker 1: a young quarterback still, and he said, look, it's on me.

423
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 1: I should not have rolled out try to throw against

424
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,080
Speaker 1: my body. He knew he was trying to make a play,

425
00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:19,520
Speaker 1: trying to do too much, and the moment got away

426
00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:22,960
Speaker 1: from him. And I think his immediate understanding of that

427
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,640
Speaker 1: is really good for his development in twenty twenty four,

428
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,760
Speaker 1: just understanding yeah, and then taking accountability for it on

429
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,640
Speaker 1: top of that. If I am a packer, I am

430
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:38,159
Speaker 1: very excited about that leader in my clubhouse. I'm excited

431
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,320
Speaker 1: about that guy in the locker room. I'm excited about

432
00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:41,679
Speaker 1: that guy on the field, and I want to make

433
00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 1: sure that I'm playing hard for him because I know

434
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,840
Speaker 1: that he is accountable. I think that goes a long way,

435
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 1: and I think that's something that's been lacking there. The

436
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,840
Speaker 1: accountability when quarterback play goes wrong in Green Bay has

437
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 1: not been there in quite some time. It's always about

438
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:57,480
Speaker 1: somebody else having a problem, always, always, always, Jordan Love

439
00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,439
Speaker 1: fell short. But Jordan Love had accountability. So give me

440
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 1: the Packers at plus one thousand. I like that number

441
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,240
Speaker 1: quite a bit, but I'm still very much on the Lions.

442
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 1: To me, that's the only bet I would make on

443
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,320
Speaker 1: this particular one. I go two units there on the Lions,

444
00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:15,000
Speaker 1: and I am fading hard the San Francisco forty nine ers.

445
00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:16,919
Speaker 1: Let's look to the super Bowl where the forty nine

446
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,159
Speaker 1: ers are the odds on favorite. Why don't just let

447
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:20,560
Speaker 1: your money on fire. Why don't you do that? And

448
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,239
Speaker 1: I'm sure somebody's gonna clip this at the forty nine

449
00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,280
Speaker 1: Ers win and they'll be the first team in a

450
00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 1: generation to lose a Super Bowl. Get back there and win. Okay, fine,

451
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:30,479
Speaker 1: clip it. I'm ready for it. I'm here for it,

452
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,359
Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna invest in it. The Chiefs at

453
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,640
Speaker 1: plus six fifty already know I'm going to invest in that.

454
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:41,199
Speaker 1: The Detroit Lions or a plus thirteen hundred your Eagles

455
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,159
Speaker 1: or plus seventeen hundred you talked about. The Bengals are

456
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 1: plus fifteen. The Green Bay Packers plus twenty two hundred.

457
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:49,640
Speaker 1: So let's try to have a plan here of how

458
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 1: we want to approach this. Erickson, when you're looking at

459
00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:53,880
Speaker 1: the outright Super Bowl board, I know it's a long

460
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,160
Speaker 1: way away, but what makes sense to you in terms

461
00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 1: of investability.

462
00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,479
Speaker 2: Well, I think the Chiefs. I mean, the Chiefs might

463
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,960
Speaker 2: just need to be your portfolio every single year. Like well,

464
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,120
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes is there. It's like if you had bet

465
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 2: on the Patriots every single year to get to the

466
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 2: Super Bowl win the AFC, like you definitely would have

467
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,720
Speaker 2: came out. So it's just like like the day after

468
00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,399
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl you log into your sports book, you'd

469
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,160
Speaker 2: be like, all right, Chiefs bet because again, the oddible

470
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,399
Speaker 2: change and fluctuate, especially during the season. But it's just

471
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,200
Speaker 2: like get that bet in now and that way. When

472
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 2: you look up and oh, what do you know, Patrick

473
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,920
Speaker 2: Holmes's in the super Bowl again, you're not like, well,

474
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 2: I'm not surprised, and I have money on the Chiefs

475
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 2: to win, so you're gonna feel good about that. So

476
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 2: I think the Chiefs just to make it. Like you

477
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 2: said at the top, it's just a smart investment. It's investment.

478
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 2: It's an investment at this point. Anything else, it's not

479
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,119
Speaker 2: even to bet with the Chiefs. So I still like

480
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 2: the Bengals a lot of fifteen to one again, just

481
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 2: looking at how they compare to the rest of the

482
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,119
Speaker 2: powerhouses and AFC Bills, Chiefs, Ravens. The Joe Burrow led

483
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 2: Bengals are five and one versus the Bengals or versus

484
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 2: the Bills and Chiefs since twenty twenty one, including the

485
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:53,200
Speaker 2: post season, so they've had success against the two top

486
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,959
Speaker 2: dogs in the AFC. And like I mentioned before, the

487
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 2: the Ravens are gonna take a step back. So for me,

488
00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,159
Speaker 2: it's the Chiefs and the Bengals I really want to

489
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 2: focus on, and I'm not going to probably get too

490
00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 2: crazy outside of those in the Super Bowl.

491
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 1: Look, the Jets defense is fascinating to me. You know,

492
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 1: I can't you know, my brain keeps wanting to make

493
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 1: Jet wagers here saying, Okay, Rodgers comes back, he plays

494
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,120
Speaker 1: just you know, slightly above average, and their playoff team

495
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 1: and anything can happen in the playoffs. I just can't

496
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 1: get over his deficits in big games in the last

497
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 1: ten years. I mean, that's all we've seen from him

498
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,200
Speaker 1: is those deficits. Well, I'm not going to go there.

499
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 1: I'm going to have some discipline.

500
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:29,680
Speaker 3: I think it's fair too.

501
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 2: Maybe just you know, let Aaron Rodgers play a game first, like,

502
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 2: let's complete a game before I put any money on

503
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 2: the New York Jets.

504
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:39,919
Speaker 1: Look, I'm looking at this and I think that you

505
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 1: know again, I'm with you. One hundred percent of the

506
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:46,399
Speaker 1: Chiefs plus six fifty. I mean, why not. It's crazy

507
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 1: to think that that can't make money for you. On

508
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 1: top of that, the lines plus thirteen hundred, what a

509
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 1: fantastic you know number that is. You make a good kid.

510
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 1: We're both in on the Bengals. The Eagles at plus

511
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 1: seventeen are interesting too.

512
00:20:58,080 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 2: To me.

513
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 1: My favorite one though, where're right in that sweet spot

514
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,640
Speaker 1: is Detroit, because I think the NFC is still an

515
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 1: easier road, and I think if we're taking the forty

516
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 1: nine ers out, because history has taught us to take

517
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,160
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers out of this conversation now, then

518
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 1: it's almost kind of a clear track where the Lions

519
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 1: just have to not beat themselves the way they did

520
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 1: last year. To me, that Lions bet might be the

521
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 1: best one on the board. Let's switch gears here for

522
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,919
Speaker 1: another one. Here, let's talk about MVP Patrick Mahomes at

523
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 1: the top of the board. Now, typically what I tend

524
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 1: to do, Andrews, I picked two guys and I invest early,

525
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 1: and then I have cashed out of certain guys when

526
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 1: that's gone from like plus eight hundred to plus two hundred,

527
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 1: I'll cash out if I have the option then reinvest

528
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 1: in a second guy to hedge outside of my favorite.

529
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,239
Speaker 1: So Mahomes at plus six fifty, I'm investing in him

530
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 1: right away. Josh Allen a plus eight hundred. Joe Burrow

531
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: at plus one thousand. I think he's a good wager. CJ.

532
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 1: Stroud eleven hundred to Lamar plus twelve. It's interesting that

533
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 1: Stroud ahead of Lamar. Kind of interesting there, just throwing

534
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 1: that out. Herbert at plus thirteen that you have Jordan Love.

535
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 1: Obviously it's mostly quoter. Jalen Hurts a plus sixteen, but

536
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 1: thirty to one Anthony richardson, My dude, I'm telling you,

537
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: if the Colts take off and Shane Steichen is a

538
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 1: coach that I believe in, Andrew, I think the Colts

539
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 1: could be a really sneaky fun team this year. Again,

540
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 1: you could throw one unit on it just for s's

541
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: and g's, but Mahomes is still the guy I want

542
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 1: to vest in first. So Mahomes and richardson those two

543
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 1: guys because I think that Richardson number. If things go

544
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 1: the way I'm talking about, by the time we get

545
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 1: to November, by the time we're sitting down to Thanksgiving dinner,

546
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 1: that could be a four to one odds and I'm

547
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 1: making money on that bad boy. What are your thoughts

548
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 1: on MVP?

549
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 2: I like the Richardson call, and I wasn't really even

550
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 2: thinking about it in terms of it against Stroud. Unfortunately

551
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,159
Speaker 2: for me, I'm gonna be like underweight on Stroud in

552
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 2: a lot of differ because I think he's just overvalued.

553
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:46,719
Speaker 2: Like that's the case, Like the market's gonna be all

554
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 2: over Stroud, just like we were last year. The Texans

555
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 2: were like one of the most overrated teams and the

556
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 2: betting markets every single week we talked about it, like

557
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 2: against the spread, It's like why the Texans favorite? Like

558
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 2: does this doesn't make any sense? Well, they are, so

559
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,919
Speaker 2: the market's gonna love Stroud. But how you counteract that

560
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 2: and how you kind of bet against C. J. Stroud

561
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 2: winning MVP is to bet on Anthony Richardson because these

562
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 2: teams are going to face twice, potentially three times if

563
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 2: they meet in the playoffs, so you're going to get

564
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 2: that marquee quarterback quarterback matchup, where if Richardson beats CJ. Shroud,

565
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 2: the voters are going to use that as a reason

566
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 2: to vote for Richardson sent instead of c J. Stroud,

567
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 2: especially of who wins the division. Because when it comes

568
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: down to MVP, this is what I harped on when

569
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 2: I wrote up Lamar Jackson at plus sixteen hundred last year,

570
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 2: comes down to two principles. The best quarterback on the

571
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 2: team with the best record. So the Colts and Texas

572
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 2: both can't have the best record, so only one of

573
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 2: them is going to win that division. So if the

574
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: Colts win the division, he should have better odds and

575
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 2: a better chance to win the MVP Award. And so

576
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 2: for me, when I'm looking at, okay, best quarterback on

577
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 2: the team with the best overall record, I'm looking at

578
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 2: teams again, the Eagles I mentioned they haven't much easier

579
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 2: schedule than they did last year. And I think the

580
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 2: thing that's interesting about Jalen Hurts at plus sixteen hundred,

581
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: so two years ago he was second place in terms

582
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 2: of the MVP voting. Last year, obviously things fell off

583
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 2: with the offense kind of crumbling towards the end of

584
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 2: the year. But the thing that's interesting that I noticed

585
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 2: about Lamar Jackson's odds last year, or as he was

586
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 2: the quarterback with the shortest odds to win Offensive Player

587
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 2: of the Year and then you end up winning the MVP.

588
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 2: The quarterback with the lowest or the highest odds of

589
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,479
Speaker 2: winning Offensive Player of the Year is Jalen Hurts. So

590
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 2: for some reason, these quarterbacks that are mobile that come

591
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,479
Speaker 2: with some question marks get like bucketed into the Offensive

592
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:22,880
Speaker 2: Player of the Year, which is an award that they'll

593
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,119
Speaker 2: never win because it always goes two quarterbacks. But for

594
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: some reason, the market kind of prices them here. It's like, okay,

595
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,400
Speaker 2: well Jalen Hurts that say he has a really good year,

596
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: Like lately, it goes all over.

597
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 1: I mean, you know we've seen wide receivers win it

598
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,360
Speaker 1: just as recently as you know, justin Jefferson two years ago.

599
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 1: So that like, Richardson's another guy when the AP stuff

600
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 1: comes out. That's one that I'm looking for too, because

601
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: he might have the video game numbers but maybe fall

602
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 1: short of the wins. And I think that's another way

603
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: to invest in Richardson. You could tell you're gonna be

604
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: sick of me talking about the Colts by the time

605
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 1: we hit label No.

606
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 2: I mean I'm here for especially because it works against

607
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 2: because everyone's gonna want to talk about the Texans, right,

608
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,199
Speaker 2: Like that's the team that's that's this, Here's Daguars, Like

609
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 2: it's gonna be the team that's like sent from destiny

610
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 2: that everybody has to bet on, everyone has to vote on,

611
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 2: and there're just gonna ultimately let you down. I think

612
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 2: the Texans are a team that can potentially do that,

613
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 2: And how do you take advantage of that?

614
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 3: In full circle?

615
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 2: Is you bet on the Colts as one of the

616
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 2: teams that could potentially mean that division instead? Because you

617
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 2: look at the division odds, I'm assuming they're much closer

618
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: between the Colts and Texans than the MVP odds are

619
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 2: for Anthony Richardson he shroud, I'd have to imagine.

620
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 1: So all right, So Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray justin Fields,

621
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: those are two guys also you're in on potentially, right,

622
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 1: So how do you like, what's the plan for those

623
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: guys when you're looking at the long shots in terms

624
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 1: of how many units.

625
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: You might want to put on a guy again, I

626
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 2: mean they're small bets because it's more of a long

627
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 2: shot odd. But again, if the cardis start out hot,

628
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: if Justin Fields goes to the Falcons and has tons

629
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 2: of you know, big plays and statistics and it's putting

630
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 2: up numbers. Like again, I look a lot at what

631
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 2: people have voted for in the past, and Justin Fields

632
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 2: has gotten MVP votes before, Like he has gotten votes

633
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,160
Speaker 2: for it. Now he hasn't won anything, but two years

634
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 2: ago he got votes, So then he's already.

635
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 3: In the minds of the voters.

636
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 2: Where Okay, he goes to Atlanta, he starts out gates

637
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 2: on fire with all these weapons.

638
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 3: Okay, what do you know?

639
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 2: Now he's tied up with brock perty to win the

640
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 2: MVP awar because the Falcans are running Bay with the

641
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 2: division with the easiest schedule for the second straight year.

642
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 2: So those are the things that I kind of look at,

643
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 2: and I think that buying on mobile quarterbacks makes the

644
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 2: most sense. We talked about richardson Hurts. You know last

645
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 2: year I was on Lamar, I get another mobile quarterback.

646
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 2: It's just you want to find a way to get

647
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 2: quarterbacks that put up bonkers numbers by themselves because when

648
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 2: they score a rushing touchdown. They're the only play that's

649
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 2: getting credit for it, not their teammates, so that helps

650
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 2: them stand out. I think a little bit more in

651
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 2: the MVP conversation.

652
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 1: All right, let's do a little lightning round NFL draft

653
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 1: because Combine is happening next week, so we're all very

654
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 1: excited about that. In the meantime, I'm gonna throw some

655
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 1: questions at you. You give me some answers. Number one overall,

656
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: pick Caleb Williams. The juice's minus fifteen hundred, nobody wants it.

657
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 1: Can make a case for a Drake May a plus

658
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 1: one thousand, or Marvin Harrison or Jayden Daniels at plus

659
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 1: twenty five or is it just Caleb Williams for whoever

660
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: drafting in the first spot.

661
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 3: I think it's just Caleb Williams. Yeah, I don't. I

662
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 3: see a lot of value here.

663
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 1: Move on to number two, Drake May minus one sixty.

664
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 1: The juice is strong, but again so is the buzz.

665
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: Jade Daniels plus money plus one seventy if you'll like

666
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 1: anybody else here. If Caleb goes to it's plus eleven hundred,

667
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 1: which is interesting. But Marvin Harrison plus fifteen JJ McCarthy

668
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 1: getting buzz, but again he's plus three thousand. Maybe the

669
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 1: offensive lineman Joe Alti plus five thousand if you want

670
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 1: to go kind of off the reservation here. Any thoughts

671
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 1: on number two pick? Is this something you can invest in?

672
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 1: Yet are still too many variables?

673
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 2: I think for me, I think the steam for Jane

674
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 2: Daniels could become a point where he could end up

675
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 2: being favored here at the number two overall pick. So

676
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 2: I think the move is to bet on Jane Daniels

677
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 2: now get him at plus money, and then you can

678
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 2: potentially foot flop it and get Drake May at plus

679
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 2: money as well on the same bet at number two overall.

680
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 3: So you have two bets at plus odds for one

681
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 3: of them.

682
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 2: Because I think that the commanders are going to go

683
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 2: with the quarterback pretty much no matter what, so and

684
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be Drake May. But the

685
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 2: steam about Jane Daniels is people are going to convince themselves,

686
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 2: oh well, he's a better for Cliff Kingsbury, like Cliff

687
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: Kingsbury's control.

688
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 3: Of the offense.

689
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 2: So I think that right now the movie to be

690
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 2: to bet on Daniels because I think that we're gonna

691
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 2: look up and these odds could be minus for Jade

692
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 2: Daniels as the number two.

693
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 1: Well, in all fairness, Cliff Kingsbury is a guy ericson

694
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 1: that like everywhere he's been, he's had a quarterback that's

695
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 1: mobile and flashy, that can extend plays and kind of

696
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 1: make him look better than he is, So it sounds

697
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 1: more like Jade and Daniels to me. It's interesting if

698
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 1: you bet Daniels now a plus one to seventy for

699
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: number two overall pick, and then Drake May for number

700
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 1: three a plus ninety interesting situation. You also get more

701
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: an Harrison a plus two to seventy there as well.

702
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: Here's some fun ones too. The NFL team to draft

703
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy plus five hundred for the Vikings, same for

704
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: the Falcons, plus six hundred for the Broncos. Do you

705
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 1: like any of those Raiders? Patriots Seahawks of Patriots by

706
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: the way, plus eight to fifty if you like him.

707
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: But to me, even just the five to one odds

708
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 1: and the Vikings is really intriguing.

709
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one is tough because he's gonna go to

710
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 2: either the Vikings, Falcons Broncos are Raiders like during that

711
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 2: stretch of draft picks from eight to twelve, like he's

712
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 2: gonna go somewhere in that range. Most likely the fact

713
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 2: that they're all who.

714
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 1: In hedge because you're getting five or better like like

715
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 1: to me, it's Vikings and then I I might want

716
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Broncos would be the other one.

717
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: I think Atlantas can handle their business.

718
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,479
Speaker 2: Probably want to do the teams to pick first, so

719
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 2: that would be the Falcons and the Vikings.

720
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: I guess first. I guess. Here's my thing though, if

721
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 1: Justin Fields ends up with Atlanta, this number disappears, right,

722
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: So let's not go that route. If you're looking at

723
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: the early value, it's Vikings and Broncos because the Falcons

724
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: have that variable of the Justin Field trade that would

725
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: take them out of the McCarthy running. What about Harrison,

726
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: Marvin Harrison Junior Cardinals minus one seventy makes a lot

727
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: of sense. I think we're all on that that. You know,

728
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 1: when the Patriots plus four hundred and the Bears are

729
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 1: plus four, the Chargers are twenty to one, the Commanders

730
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 1: thirty to one, Giants forty to one, and he feels

731
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 1: about this one.

732
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 2: I think for me, I think the value is probably

733
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 2: on the Patriots just because you know, we don't know

734
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 2: what they're gonna do. Like, this is a whole new

735
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 2: crew that's running the show here. It's not Bill Belichick,

736
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: it's Elliot Wolfs Rod Mayo that are kind of running

737
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: this draft room, and we have no idea what they're

738
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 2: going to do. So again, it's easy to look at

739
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 2: what the market saying, oh, it's going to be quarterback. Well,

740
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: we're gonna hear a bunch of stuff this offseason heading

741
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 2: into draft season where they're gonna be like, oh, well,

742
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 2: the top player on their board is Marvin Harrison if

743
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 2: they don't like the quarterback that's available at three, or

744
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 2: they like Joe Alt at number three overall. So this

745
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 2: is the time to now get in on the Patriots

746
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 2: not picking quarterback with the market overly convinced that's going

747
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 2: to happen. When I mean, would you be surprised if

748
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: they don't take a quarterback at three? No, Like, I

749
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 2: don't think it's surprise.

750
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 1: Would I be upset? Yes, that's fair, But those are

751
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:37,479
Speaker 1: just different questions, and so will you. We'll commiserate together

752
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: over a pint of Sam Adams. But I get not

753
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 1: a sponsor of the show. By the way, but ericson

754
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: what other bets NFL draft year before we get to

755
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: combine action where things you know, we see that combine happens.

756
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 1: These odds change a great time to get involved. Anything

757
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: to peauk your interest.

758
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's really just taking advantage of the

759
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 2: Patriots not drafting a quarterback at three. So some of

760
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 2: the bets that I've looked at, So number three overall

761
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 2: pick brought back you can get at plus ten thousand.

762
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 2: What if the Patriots like, okay, he's the best player

763
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 2: in the draft that's not a quarterback. What if they

764
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 2: say that we're gonna take brock Bowers at plus ten thousand. Okay, Yeah,

765
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 2: I'm entertained in that. Kyle Pitts first non quarterback draft

766
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 2: of the year, he was picked fourth overall, he was

767
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 2: plus and for the Patriots to draft Brock Bowers overall

768
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 2: so they could trade down, he's plus thirty six hundred,

769
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 2: So I like that. Again, I mentioned Joseph Ault, the

770
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: Notre Dame tackle thirty five to one to be selected

771
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 2: by the Patriots or second shortest odds to be the

772
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: first non quarterback selected. So they're already saying like, hey,

773
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 2: if it's not Marvin Harrison, it's going to be Joseph All.

774
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 2: So thirty five to one for the Patriots to pick

775
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 2: a non quarterback with the tackle, it's great.

776
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 1: Throw ten bucks on there, you win three.

777
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 2: So for me, I'm gonna be fading the again.

778
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 3: This is how I'd be happy.

779
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 2: If they draft the quarterback, I'll be happy, and if

780
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 2: they don't, then I'm gonna make money. So like that's

781
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: the way that I'm going to approach the New England

782
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 2: Patriots and then going back to the other quarterbacks. So

783
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 2: the team that I think that is not being talked

784
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 2: enough about drafting quarterback is the Saints. So I'm looking

785
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 2: at the Nordlands Saints as a team that could potentially

786
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: land a guy like or Michael Pennix, who in recent

787
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: news have been kind of falling in the draft. You know,

788
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 2: I've seen them out of round one box altogether, which

789
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 2: means they could go through the entire first round, and

790
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 2: that means they could go to any team. But when

791
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the teams that their odds are not

792
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: going to change for quarterbacks because the Saints can't add

793
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 2: a quarterback in free agency like they're going into the

794
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 2: draft of Derek Carr.

795
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 1: They can't as twix right exactly.

796
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 2: So I think that a team that, hey, they're not

797
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 2: overly convinced Derek car is their guy, I think that

798
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 2: they could take a shot on either Bow Knicks or

799
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 2: Michael Pennix late in round one or even in round

800
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 2: two if one of these guys falls. So I know

801
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 2: that the Saints are going to be interested in the quarterback,

802
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 2: and I like their long shot odds right now. And

803
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 2: the thing that I want to point out and hit

804
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 2: home here is their odds are not going to change

805
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 2: as we get to the draft. The Vikings, Falcons, Broncos Raiders,

806
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 2: those are the teams that are the high profile teams

807
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 2: that draft a quarterback. Those teams could also add quarterbacks

808
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 2: in free agency, which will then change their odds to

809
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 2: draft said quarterback. So that's what you want to make

810
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 2: sure you're paying attention to.

811
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: All right, pay attention to all of the lines as

812
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 1: they continue to move this NFL season, and yeah, this

813
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,400
Speaker 1: NFL season, because we're in it, folks. It's Alaly twenty

814
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: twenty four NFL Great stuff. Andrew has always will be

815
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: here obviously, with a lot of draft coverage coming up

816
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 1: here on the channel. Make sure you check out Fantasy Pros.

817
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 1: We've got our live mocks going on too. We've also

818
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 1: gonna have live coverage of the NFL Draft itself, so

819
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: subscribe to Betting Pros YouTube. Subscribe to Fantasy Pros YouTube,

820
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 1: and also don't forget Fantasy Ros MLB two because we've

821
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 1: got all the baseball breakdowns every single day. So if

822
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 1: you're hot on baseball betting, and we are, and we

823
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: made a ton of money last year doing it. The

824
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 1: Welsh and I were red hot last year, join us

825
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 1: there as well and download that VP app. Drop your

826
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: comments below. What are your picks here for the twenty

827
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 1: twenty four early NFL that you like, because we want

828
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 1: to hear from you, And of course don't forget to

829
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 1: ring that bell for notifications, you know, every time a

830
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: piece of content drops here on the channel. That'll do

831
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: it for us. But the story of the game goes

832
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 1: on for Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. We'll see you

833
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast.

834
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

835
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836
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837
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838
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