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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: We are presented by bet MGM Brendan Glasheen in the

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Speaker 1: host chair, joined by Sean Zerilo and Billy Ward. Here

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Speaker 1: for a UFC betting preview. We make our way to

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Speaker 1: Abu Dhabi or UFC Fight Night.

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Speaker 3: We'll dive right in.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to the guys, fight of the night, favorite underdog,

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Speaker 1: top props, and then some best bets and we'll get

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Speaker 1: you out of here. Get you ready for Saturday in

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Speaker 1: Abu Dhabi. Main card is on ABC starting at three

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Speaker 1: pm Eastern. You don't have to well locally, not going

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Speaker 1: to be up in the wee hours of the morning

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Speaker 1: like like last week as we discussed.

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Speaker 3: So let's let's dive in. We've got the bantam weight

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Speaker 3: made event.

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Speaker 1: Corey Sanhagen and Umar Normaga madeoff. Who is the favorite

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Speaker 1: minus three forty the total rounds at four and a half. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Sean Zillo. What do you make of this this matchup

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Speaker 1: and how would you like.

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Speaker 4: To bet it?

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Speaker 5: I think this is the most intriguing fight the UFCS

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Speaker 5: put on in a number of months. I don't know

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Speaker 5: if Billy agrees with that sentiment. It's just a very

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Speaker 5: intriguing fight, though relatively binary on paper, I guess Umar

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Speaker 5: the better grappler, Corey the better striker. Corey is also

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Speaker 5: taller and longer three inches taller one inch each, advantaged

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Speaker 5: longer reach with his legs, and he's the better kicker.

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Speaker 5: So I think that reach is going to be more

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Speaker 5: pronounced when they're standing at range because he's going to

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Speaker 5: be able to kick Umar where Umar is not going

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Speaker 5: to be able to touch him at range. Corey just

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Speaker 5: has a longer reach, but I think it's even more

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Speaker 5: pronounced than that one inch when you factor in the legs. Now,

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Speaker 5: both of these guys have a number of finishes in

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Speaker 5: their recent fights. I think the fight to go the distance, though,

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Speaker 5: is the best bet I can make on this bout.

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Speaker 5: At about minus one twenty, I projected this closer to

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Speaker 5: minus one forty. Sanhagan's recent stoppages. He had a cut

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Speaker 5: stoppage over Sanyadong, He knocked out an old chinny Frankie Edgar.

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Speaker 5: He knocked out an old chinny Marlon Morish, who last

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Speaker 5: five minutes in all of his fights. And then is done. Now,

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Speaker 5: those were beautiful knockouts, incredible techniques flash KOs, but buying large.

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Speaker 5: Corey is more of an attritional finisher. He doesn't have

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Speaker 5: big one shot ko power. Obviously, if anybody hits you

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Speaker 5: with a fine knee, you're probably gonna go out, or

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Speaker 5: spinning wheel kick, you're probably gonna go out. But he

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Speaker 5: doesn't particularly have huge one shot power. He's more so

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Speaker 5: of a guy who's going to put twenty five strikes

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Speaker 5: on you per round, rack up one hundred, one hundred

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Speaker 5: and fifty strikes over the course of a five round fight,

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Speaker 5: and put a ton of damage on you while he's

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Speaker 5: doing it. As I said the cut stavage on Song

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Speaker 5: and Dong, he often is beating his opponents to a

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Speaker 5: pop when he's able to put a ton of strikes

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Speaker 5: on them, but not typically knocking them down repeatedly, more

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Speaker 5: so just putting a ton of damage on them. So

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Speaker 5: the damage battle favorite Sanhagan, but the grappling upside, the control,

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Speaker 5: the submission upside all goes to cousin Umar, who got

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Speaker 5: dropped in his last fight and set after the fight,

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Speaker 5: he basically woke up on top of his opponent grappling

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Speaker 5: him there was a short notes opponent. He was a

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Speaker 5: big favorite. I don't know if he has the best chin.

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Speaker 5: That was definitely a bit concerning seeing him get wobbled

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Speaker 5: and not remember it after the fighter, you know, basically

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Speaker 5: go out and then come back too. But consistently throughout

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Speaker 5: his career we've seen Corey Sanhagan struggle once he gets

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Speaker 5: taken down. Now his takeown defense is improved. He made TJ.

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Speaker 5: Dillashaw shoot about twenty attempts, only got a couple of them,

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Speaker 5: controlled him for eight minutes of that twenty five minute fight,

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Speaker 5: which probably ultimately swayed the decision, but didn't do insane

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Speaker 5: damage or get close to a submission or anything, you know,

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Speaker 5: in those exchanges. I think Umer will get close to

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Speaker 5: potentially finishing the fight on the ground. I think he's

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Speaker 5: going to get to some dangerous positions. But I do

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Speaker 5: think Sanagan's defensive grappling is leveled up to a point.

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Speaker 5: I think his offensive grappling has leveled up to a

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Speaker 5: point where he can just be more competitive and more

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Speaker 5: comfortable in the grappling here, and I think he can

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Speaker 5: do well to keep this on the feet, keep it standing,

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Speaker 5: and have a chance to win the fight. But I

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Speaker 5: think Umar just has more upside to win, you know,

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Speaker 5: a quick submission or win more of a control based decision,

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Speaker 5: and deserves that favoritism. Now the line is blown out.

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Speaker 5: Corey opened about plus one to eighty. He's currently about

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Speaker 5: plus two to sixty. I think he's getting closer to

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Speaker 5: being bettible because that would make this line about plus

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Speaker 5: two eighty. So have you got plus three hundred or

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Speaker 5: better on sagon Aigan, I'd be interested. I'm a little

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Speaker 5: interested in his decision prop At about plus six to fifty,

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Speaker 5: I made that line plus six hundred, but the ghost

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Speaker 5: to decision the over would be the ways I would

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Speaker 5: bet this. You know, I mentioned Corey's finishes, Umar's finishes.

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Speaker 5: He chaoed Howny Barcellos. It was really wild sequence. But

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Speaker 5: Barcellos is forty, you know, another old potentially Chinney opponent,

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Speaker 5: you know, taken down by a ko. I just I

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Speaker 5: think most of their finishes aren't necessarily repeatable, and not

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Speaker 5: repeatable against guys who are in their physical prime, so

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Speaker 5: both pretty durable to me. I think Umar obviously like

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Speaker 5: her to get Kaot Sanhagan likelier to get submitted, but

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Speaker 5: I don't necessarily think it is as binary playing out

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Speaker 5: as it looks on paper, and therefore I do like

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Speaker 5: the over Billy.

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Speaker 1: There's win at the sales here for Sanjag, and he's

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Speaker 1: won a couple fights in a row.

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Speaker 3: His losses are only the UFC champions.

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Speaker 1: I see in your luck ratings right Upactionnetwork dot Com

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Speaker 1: Action Networks UFC luck ratings that Billy puts out every

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Speaker 1: week that you might be intrigued for a spread bet

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Speaker 1: which would be taking potentially five and a half five

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Speaker 1: and a half rounds to Sandhagen. Does that still is

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Speaker 1: that still attractive to you or does that still out

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Speaker 1: of play?

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Speaker 6: So I was really hopeful on Monday that I would

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Speaker 6: get plus one fifty maybe even a little bit better

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Speaker 6: on the Corey Sanhagan spread. The books are on top

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Speaker 6: of that one. It was even money. It's it's not enough.

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Speaker 6: There's too much of a difference, I should say, from

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Speaker 6: his money line to be worth it. Those are harder

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Speaker 6: to hit on five round fights because you basically need

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Speaker 6: to win forty percent of the rounds as opposed to

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Speaker 6: thirty three percent of the rounds in a three round fight.

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Speaker 4: You just need one.

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Speaker 6: So yeah, not seeing that the way I had hoped

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Speaker 6: it would come out. I really agree with Seohn's point,

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Speaker 6: especially the last thing you said about it's not really

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Speaker 6: that binary of a fight. Like sand Haagan is a

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Speaker 6: very good grappler. We all assume Umar and market made

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Speaker 6: off is Habib because they have the same last name.

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Speaker 4: But he's a more dynamic striker, I.

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Speaker 6: Think than Habib ever was, and not as good as

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Speaker 6: a grappler, like not as good of a pure wrestler

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Speaker 6: puer takedown artist that Habib was.

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Speaker 4: So it's it's a closer fight.

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Speaker 6: He reminds me a lot of how I saw Balal

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Speaker 6: Edwards last week, where there's a big underdog. I think

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Speaker 6: the price is somewhat not reflective of their actual skill set,

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Speaker 6: but I have a hard time seeing the underdog winning. Obviously,

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Speaker 6: we all came in one outright, but the spread bat

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Speaker 6: there paid off nicely, and you know, it's closer than

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Speaker 6: we thought.

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Speaker 4: I see kind of the same situation here.

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Speaker 6: Sanagan is not going to look like almost three to

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Speaker 6: one underdog once this fight happens. I have a hard

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Speaker 6: time seeing him winning this outright though, unless the cardio

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Speaker 6: difference is what it could be. Because Santagan has gone

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Speaker 6: at least four rounds in five straight fights. We've never

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Speaker 6: seen that happen with Nermaga made Off, Tront and I

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Speaker 6: talk about it all the time repeatedly. Grappling gets really

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Speaker 6: difficult and wears you out, especially if you don't get

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Speaker 6: those takedowns. You get the takedown, you get the control position,

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Speaker 6: you get to rest a little bit. If he has

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Speaker 6: to shoot three or four takedown If Nermaga Madoff has

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Speaker 6: to shoot three or four takedowns for everyone he gets,

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Speaker 6: he could win a round or two but be absolutely

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Speaker 6: gassed by the end of that. And we know Sanhagan

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Speaker 6: usually builds throughout the fight. He's been great down the stretch.

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Speaker 6: So two angles. You know, you can go Sanagan by decision,

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Speaker 6: Sana Haigan four or five decision split bets or and

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Speaker 6: this is my preference, just wait.

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Speaker 4: To bet them live right, you're not.

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Speaker 6: You're eliminating the risk of him just getting malled on

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Speaker 6: the ground at round one, which is possible, if not probable,

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Speaker 6: in this fight. And then if he survives those first

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Speaker 6: couple of rounds, you get a way better price. If

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Speaker 6: Sanagan wins round one or two and you get a

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Speaker 6: worse price, that's okay too, you'll still get him at

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Speaker 6: plus money, but you've also made it through the most

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Speaker 6: dangerous part of the fight. So either way, I think

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Speaker 6: that's the way I would play it. If you're not

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Speaker 6: gonna be around, you know, it's kind of a weird time.

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Speaker 6: Any of those late props are fine too, but I

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Speaker 6: think it's a pretty good live betting spot.

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Speaker 4: And again read and react right.

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Speaker 6: If Numar gets all of his takedown and gets four

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Speaker 6: and a half minutes to control time in the first

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Speaker 6: two rounds, probably won't go that route. But if he's

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Speaker 6: shooting a ton Sanahiggan's getting back to his feet, landing

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Speaker 6: at range, but still losing the round, this could be

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Speaker 6: a perfect opportunity.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think Umer finishes the fight via submission or

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Speaker 5: I guess if you finishes. In general, I would expect

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Speaker 5: it to come under one and a half rounds when

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Speaker 5: they're both still relatively dry early in the fight. After

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Speaker 5: that point, I think Poory is the much likelier finisher,

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Speaker 5: and it's going to come down the stretch if Umar,

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Speaker 5: like like TJ Dillashagus two for nineteen on takedown or times.

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Speaker 5: You know, if he really struggles to get takedowns but

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Speaker 5: he's attempting three per round, two per round. Yeah, he

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Speaker 5: might gas out for the fourth or fifth round, So

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Speaker 5: I like the libel look their two billity.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to the fight of the night another

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Speaker 1: bandam weaight? That the guys have highlighted here Marlon cheto Vera,

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Speaker 1: he's the underdog taken on Davison Figuredo at minus one

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Speaker 1: forty ish Zarila, the same question for you, how do

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Speaker 1: you what do you make of this fight? I mean,

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Speaker 1: right now it's the over under on the rounds is

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Speaker 1: two and a half.

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Speaker 3: So how do you assess this matchup? And how would

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Speaker 3: you like to bet?

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Speaker 5: I think the likeliest finish here is Davison Figuredo by submission,

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Speaker 5: and you can get twelve to one on that bet.

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Speaker 5: The books have his submission prop price shorter than his

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Speaker 5: knockout prop. Now typically he's more of a knockout artist.

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Speaker 5: He had crazy power when he fought at one twenty five.

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Speaker 5: Moving up to one thirty five, I don't think he

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Speaker 5: hits quite as hard, but he's still very technical and

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Speaker 5: Cheeto is one of the most durable fighters in the sport,

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Speaker 5: so I doubt he's going to knock him out. I

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Speaker 5: don't really like Cheetoh in three round fights. He's such

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Speaker 5: a slow starter. He typically gives away round one, very

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Speaker 5: much like pyotr Jan. And when you're in a three

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Speaker 5: round fight, if you're gonna give away the first round,

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Speaker 5: you have such thin margins to draw on. So I

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Speaker 5: think Figgi gets out to a lead pretty consistently here,

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Speaker 5: both on activity in the first round, but also with

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Speaker 5: the grappling upside, because Cheeto has shown a susceptibility to

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Speaker 5: getting taken down and held out throughout his career, and

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Speaker 5: I think Figgy his easiest path of victory here is

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Speaker 5: to grapple, but also I think he's likely to grapple.

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Speaker 5: And if you look at Cheeto's fight history, go back

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Speaker 5: through all of his opponents, he has not faced a

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Speaker 5: grappler anywhere near this level. In terms of submission finishing,

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Speaker 5: He's faced guys who can wrestle. He is not face

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Speaker 5: guys who can finish fights with grappling like Figgie. And

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Speaker 5: I really don't think anybody's actually tried to threaten Cheeto

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Speaker 5: with submissions to finish it, because he's dangerous on the

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Speaker 5: feet and once they get on top of him, they

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Speaker 5: want to lock things down and keep him on the

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Speaker 5: ground and not actually go for their prioritizing position over

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Speaker 5: actually attacking submissions and trying to finish the fight. I

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Speaker 5: think Figgi's gonna try to finish him on the mat,

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Speaker 5: and I think he's gonna have a decent chance of

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Speaker 5: doing so, because really nobody's tried it, you know. I

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Speaker 5: was surprised to look back through Cheetoh's fight history and

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Speaker 5: see like he just hasn't faced a grappler of this level. Now,

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Speaker 5: he is bigger, he's taller. I think if they gets stuck,

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Speaker 5: or if Figurado allows this to stay at striking range

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Speaker 5: for the large part of the fight, Chido absolutely is

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Speaker 5: a chance of pulling the upset because he probably throws

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Speaker 5: a little bit more volume. He's gonna be able to

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Speaker 5: fight at longer range with the reach, and also with

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Speaker 5: his kicks. He's great kicks, and I think Figgy could

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Speaker 5: just get a little bit frustrated trying to get inside

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Speaker 5: and land hooks. But if he wants to pursue the

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Speaker 5: grappling upside, if he wants to just turn this into

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Speaker 5: a grappling match, I think Figgy covers this price pretty easily.

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Speaker 5: It's just a matter of whether he pursues that game

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Speaker 5: plan or not. And sometimes it is tough to fed

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Speaker 5: on these guys to do something that they don't always do.

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Speaker 5: Figurado pursue grappling in his last fight well great against

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Speaker 5: Cody Garbrandt ended up choking him out. Don't know if

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Speaker 5: he's reliable necessarily to do that again. I think it's

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Speaker 5: his best path of victory, but it's not something he

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Speaker 5: always does. He likes the strike, and we'll see if

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Speaker 5: he ends up doing that, especially if Cheetoh isn't going

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Speaker 5: to throw anything for round one. He may feel just

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Speaker 5: super comfortable on the feet, but I would expect at

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Speaker 5: some point he grapples, and if he does, I think

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Speaker 5: he is a good chance to catch the subprop So

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Speaker 5: twelve to one, biglong odds. I think we're the pope.

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Speaker 3: Bill, you have a better feeling on just taking a side.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I do.

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Speaker 6: I think Figurado mainly for the reason Sean pointed out

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Speaker 6: Vera being willing to give away one round. You just

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Speaker 6: can't do that in a three round fight, and that

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Speaker 6: habit is hard to break, and almost sometimes it feels

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Speaker 6: worse when you do break those habits, right, We'll see

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Speaker 6: guys you talked about it. Oh God, who's Terrence McKinney

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Speaker 6: with his first round thing where like you get in

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Speaker 6: your own head about this bad tendency of yours and

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Speaker 6: then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. And I think

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Speaker 6: there's a bit of that going on with Cheeto in

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Speaker 6: recent fights. But yeah, I don't necessarily. I think there's

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Speaker 6: a pretty fair price on Figuredo's money line. He's got

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Speaker 6: the grappling upside and is probably close to neutral, if not,

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Speaker 6: you know, the better striker as well. So the only

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Speaker 6: way it really goes wrong is he's a little bit older,

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Speaker 6: he's starting to slow down. But the mileage on Cheeto

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Speaker 6: is ridiculous at this point, Like he's just eaten so

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Speaker 6: many strikes over the last couple of fights that between

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Speaker 6: Figuredo going up a weight class, which is kind of

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Speaker 6: like dropping the years down a little bit. It's rolling

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Speaker 6: back the odometer a little bit and then vera, you know,

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Speaker 6: just take he took two hundred and thirty significant strikes

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Speaker 6: against Sehan O'Malley, one thirteen against Pedro Munos one twenty

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Speaker 6: eight against ad Hagen, and those are all within the

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Speaker 6: last like fifteen months or something.

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Speaker 4: So I don't love that about Cheeto.

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Speaker 6: I could see him getting finished just because the durability

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Speaker 6: can't last forever.

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Speaker 4: Right, You're gonna hit that point at some point. Might

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Speaker 4: not be now.

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Speaker 6: I see the submission angle. That makes a ton of

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Speaker 6: sense too, But I'm just laying the juice on Figuredo.

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Speaker 6: I'm playing that one straight up.

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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Everybody Is Brought to You by

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00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,240
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Speaker 1: one plus gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Let's

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Speaker 1: move on to underdogs. What do you make of the

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Speaker 1: card this week? Sean for underdogs and Abu Dhabi.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, there's a few underdogs. I like three bets that

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Speaker 5: side placed, and Billy and I both have underdog best bets,

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Speaker 5: so I think we're going to cover one for each

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Speaker 5: other here in the section, and you can guess as

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Speaker 5: the which is the best bet for either of us.

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Speaker 5: So a couple underdogs are me the one that's different

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Speaker 5: for Billy Rolanda Bedoya against Ji Herbert Padoya nine years

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Speaker 5: younger and just way more volume. This is a guy

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Speaker 5: who's going to land across fifteen minutes more than one

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Speaker 5: hundred significant strikes pretty comfortably, whereas Ji Herbert across fifteen

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Speaker 5: minutes is going to get doubled up. He's going to

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Speaker 5: land like sixty to seventy strikes at most. He's just

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Speaker 5: too low volume. He has really nasty combinations.

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Speaker 3: When he lets them go.

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Speaker 5: He's very quick hands, but I don't think he trusts

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Speaker 5: his own cardio. And he also doesn't have a particularly

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Speaker 5: good chin here either, So you know, Padoia younger, much

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Speaker 5: better hardware in terms of durability, and then also place

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Speaker 5: the volume, so I think pretty comfortably Badoya and Herbert

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Speaker 5: doesn't grapple either. He's more of a pure kickboxing striker

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Speaker 5: looking to finish people, and that's why he's so low volume.

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Speaker 5: I think he's very confident in his tower. He almost

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Speaker 5: knocked out Eliotatoria, but because of that confidence, he just

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Speaker 5: doesn't throw enough. So across a fifteen minute decision, I

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Speaker 5: think Padoya comfortably pulls away interested in Bedoya by decision,

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Speaker 5: but I think Herbert is a very wonky chin so

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Speaker 5: wouldn't be surprised with the ko either. So Badoya anything

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Speaker 5: plus one ten plus one oh five are better looks

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Speaker 5: good to be there. And then as far as my

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Speaker 5: other underdog for Bester underdogs, We're gonna go with Lubi

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Speaker 5: Godinez at about plus one oh six. I think she

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Speaker 5: should be favored against Mackenzie Durrant. She's the better wrestler,

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Speaker 5: she's the better striker. Dern is discussed being more reliant

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Speaker 5: on her grappling in this fight. She's gotten stuck kickboxing

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Speaker 5: brawling in her recent fights when she is a grappling

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Speaker 5: oriented fighter or world champion jiu jitsu practitioner. But she

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Speaker 5: doesn't have great wrestling, and I do think Lupy has

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Speaker 5: won the better offensive wrestling, but two enough defensively to

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Speaker 5: deny her and keep this fight standing. And when Dern

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Speaker 5: has those takedown attempts in recent fight, she just starts

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Speaker 5: swinging wildly and starts like flailing and spinning and doing

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Speaker 5: all sorts of really awkward stuff on the feet that

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Speaker 5: looks very bad from a judge's perspective, looks very bad

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Speaker 5: from a fan perspective because it just looks like she's

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Speaker 5: literally getting scared and flailing. And she might be. I mean,

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Speaker 5: she's been hurt badly in recent fights, and I assume

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Speaker 5: doesn't want to keep taking that damage and gets a

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Speaker 5: little skittish once she can't get the takedowns because now

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Speaker 5: she's stuck in her opponent's realm. So i'd expect her

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Speaker 5: to be a little bit more proactive pursuing the grappling

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Speaker 5: in this fight. I just don't think she's going to

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Speaker 5: have success with it, and I think Godinaz has recovered

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Speaker 5: in terms of being able to dictate where the fight

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Speaker 5: takes place. I durn gets this down, She's going to

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Speaker 5: be a threat to finish the fight, but otherwise I

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Speaker 5: think it's Lupy's fight to lose it. I give her

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Speaker 5: the advantage in two out of three aspects of MMA,

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Speaker 5: So Lupy Godina is at about plus one oh six

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Speaker 5: and then Alejandro Badoya at plus one twenty. Sorry, Rolando Badoya,

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Speaker 5: I don't know why in my head, he's Allejandro Badoya.

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Speaker 5: I feel like there must be another athlete out there

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Speaker 5: who's whose name is Alee Jundra Adoya, because I keep yeah,

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Speaker 5: it's a soccer player. Okay, so I'm not crazy. There

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Speaker 5: is an Allejandra Bedoue, who I believe played for t USA,

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Speaker 5: But Roladabadoa is the MMn fighter of betting that time.

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Speaker 3: Of year with the Olympics understandable.

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Speaker 5: There's there are There's a lot of UFC fighters who

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Speaker 5: have the same surname as professional athletes from other sports,

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Speaker 5: and for some reason, like I always wanted a fault

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Speaker 5: to calling them, you know, the name that I'm more

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Speaker 5: familiar with from from free MMA days. So yeah, it's

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Speaker 5: it's always a fun game I get to play in

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Speaker 5: my head.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Sean said, stay tuned, we'll have some underdog crossover

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Speaker 1: into best bets.

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Speaker 3: Billy.

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Speaker 1: You've got two different ones though than Sean for now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: I mean we're actually both betting each other's picks, primarily

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Speaker 6: here and I was close on Badoya and then when

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Speaker 6: I saw Sean put this in the show sheet, I

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Speaker 6: ran out and bet it myself because I just needed

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Speaker 6: someone to give me permission basically, I'm kicking myself for

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Speaker 6: not getting the better lines earlier in the week, but

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Speaker 6: love that one as well too. I'm looking at one

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Speaker 6: is Mohammed y Aaya vers Kaalie Fernandez. Both guys are

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Speaker 6: owned one in the UFC. They both lost decisions in

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Speaker 6: their debut. One guy, Mohammed Yaya is like more than

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Speaker 6: a three to one underdog. His nickname is the UAE Warrior.

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Speaker 6: He's from Dubai. He's the only local fighter they have

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Speaker 6: on this card. Clearly the UFC thinks this is at

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Speaker 6: least an okay matchup for him. They don't bring in

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Speaker 6: the one local fighter to get him slaughtered. That's not

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Speaker 6: how any of this works. That's not how it's ever worked.

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Speaker 6: It doesn't mean he's gonna win. It doesn't mean he's

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Speaker 6: the better fighter. I just don't see him as a

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Speaker 6: three to one underdog in this It doesn't make any

407
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Speaker 6: sense to me. His debut was against Trevor Peak, and

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Speaker 6: he looked kind of bad against Trevor Peak. But that

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Speaker 6: was the fight where Trevor Peak decided he was a

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Speaker 6: wrestler all of a sudden, after being a wild brawler

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Speaker 6: up until that point.

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Speaker 4: Had I been his coach.

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Speaker 6: Had I been that fighter and Trevor Peak shot a

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Speaker 6: takedown on me, I would have thrown my hands up

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Speaker 6: and given up too. Like nobody prepared for that. He

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Speaker 6: had no idea it was going to happen. Nobody knew

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Speaker 6: Trevor Peak even knew how to spell take down before

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Speaker 6: that fight, So like, I'm gonna give him a pass

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Speaker 6: on That is where I'm going with all that. Kwie

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Speaker 6: Fernandez lost a split decision to Mark DIACIZI arguably could

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Speaker 6: have won it, but he didn't comfortably look better right,

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Speaker 6: also with some suffering a little bit in the wrestling

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Speaker 6: department against a fighter who didn't historically do that.

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Speaker 4: I just don't see this wide of a split between them.

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Speaker 6: One guy's plus three hundred crazy line in my opinion,

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Speaker 6: and then the other one, which Sean will also get

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Speaker 6: to later, is me how Ola sek chuck at plus

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Speaker 6: two ten. I'm basically just fading the Shara bullet hype here.

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Speaker 6: I think it's gone a little bit too far for

430
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 6: a guy with one eye and two hand pick matchups

431
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 6: so far in the UFC. They gave him Bruno Silva,

432
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 6: who is the UFC is like, oh, we've got a

433
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 6: cool kickboxer.

434
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 4: Let's give him a good matchup.

435
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,160
Speaker 6: They call Bruno Silva when that happens, and Bruno Silva

436
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 6: took him down three times, which is not a good

437
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 6: sign for shar Bullet.

438
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 4: Ola J. Chuck.

439
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 6: He has six losses in the UFC, five of them

440
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,360
Speaker 6: are submissions. He does not need to worry about that here.

441
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 6: He's also a former tool fiver who can crack, has

442
00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 6: never been knocked down despite fighting much bigger opponents.

443
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:02,880
Speaker 4: Shara Bullet, former welterweight coming up.

444
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 6: I think I said it to Sean and our private

445
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 6: slack or somewhere else last fight that I think he'd

446
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,159
Speaker 6: do better as a welterweight in the UFC. His power

447
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 6: just doesn't quite seem to play up. He does a

448
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 6: lot of touching you, but not a lot of hurting you,

449
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:18,400
Speaker 6: and then he can't grapple to save his life.

450
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 4: So Oli J.

451
00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,719
Speaker 6: Chuck has the grappling advantage, might not use it, probably

452
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 6: won't use it, but then it's, in my opinion, roughly

453
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 6: a coin flip on the feet between one guy who's

454
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 6: gonna land volume one guy's gonna do damage. It's pretty

455
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 6: much the same thing as g rod versus Christian Leroy

456
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 6: Duncan last week with the hype prospect and the guy

457
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 6: who you know can hang in the striking and do

458
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 6: better in the grappling.

459
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 4: Oli J.

460
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 6: Shuck's grappling is nowhere near g rods, but that's why

461
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:45,919
Speaker 6: we're getting plus two ten instead of plus one twenty.

462
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 6: So I'll take that one all day. Shawn's also gonna

463
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 6: go a little bit deeper on that shortly.

464
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 1: Where do we see value in the prop market? Shun

465
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 1: for Abudhabi billion, I.

466
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 5: Have the same page here Alzamont. Murza Khanov to win

467
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 5: inside a distance is how I'm playing it, about plus

468
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 5: one twenty, and I also like his round two and

469
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 5: round three props at about plus six hundred and plus

470
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 5: nine hundred, respectively, slightly worst numbers out there. I would

471
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 5: still take. But Murza Khanov is undefeated. Menifield typically a

472
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 5: round one finisher, and then his cardio fades after five minutes,

473
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 5: and traveling over to Abu Dhabi, it's going to take

474
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 5: a lot out of him. I do not see Menifield

475
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 5: being effective here for more than a few minutes of

476
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 5: this fight. He's also in his late thirties as well.

477
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 5: You know, it continues to get older. He actually looked

478
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 5: okay up until his last fight too, like it seemed

479
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 5: like his cardio was improving. He was able to get

480
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 5: through fifteen minute fights, and then he was immediately iced

481
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 5: by Carlos Olver. Now the chin is certainly a concern

482
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 5: for him surviving to round two, but I expect kind

483
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 5: of his typical approach where he's dangerous for a round.

484
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 5: Mr Zakhanov may back off a little bit, allow him

485
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 5: to gass himself out, and then I think he took

486
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,439
Speaker 5: On finishes him in round two or round three, and Murzicon,

487
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 5: if you see in his career record, typically builds to

488
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 5: a third round finish, but he's throwing the same heat

489
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 5: roughly throughout. I just think he's able to sustain his style.

490
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 5: He doesn't look great either, cardio wise at round three

491
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 5: against most of his opponents. He's a big dude. He's

492
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 5: a wide dude for heavyweight or light heavyweight, but he's

493
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 5: actually kind of short, so he's like the short, stocky

494
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 5: frame and it doesn't seem like he necessarily is carrying

495
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 5: his cardio well. But he's still knocking people out in

496
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 5: round three and throwing like cool techniques flying techniques, so

497
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 5: he seems to sustain it, and I just think he

498
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 5: has a big cardio advantage here on top of the

499
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 5: fact that he's the more dangerous fighter for the final

500
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 5: ten minutes. So like that inside the distance prop. But

501
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 5: I think I really like it in rounds two and

502
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 5: rounds three at juice of your odds, and this just

503
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 5: seems like the UFC giving him an opportunity to get

504
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 5: another finish for his record and keep ascending up the

505
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 5: light heavyweight rankings because he's pretty old to be. You know,

506
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 5: he's only thirteen to oh fourteen and oh and he's

507
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,479
Speaker 5: already thirty six thirty five, So they need to move

508
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,439
Speaker 5: him along as quickly as possible and try to get

509
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 5: him into the rankings and moving up the rankings as

510
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,719
Speaker 5: quickly as they can because the window is relatively limited,

511
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 5: you know, if they want him to fight for a title,

512
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 5: let's win in the next two years or so.

513
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 1: All right, Billy, and there's another there's another way you'd

514
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 1: like to play Azam up right?

515
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, and it's mostly the same logic as Sean,

516
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 6: But I'm just taking the knockout of plus one forty,

517
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 6: covering all the rounds not much that Sean didn't hit

518
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 6: on the one thing.

519
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 4: A couple things. I'll point out.

520
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 6: Merga Khanoff at least has scored a knockdown in every

521
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 6: promotional appearance, including his last one against Dustin Jacoby.

522
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 4: Jacoby made it to the bell.

523
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 6: I feel like people sleep on Justin Jacoby is one

524
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,959
Speaker 6: of the elite technical strikers in the sport, but he

525
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 6: continues to be And if you look good on the

526
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 6: feet against Dustin Jacoby, that's a really good sign. More importantly, though,

527
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 6: Alonso Manifield got knocked out in twelve seconds, like three

528
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 6: months ago, not even three full months.

529
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 4: Weirdly quick turnaround time given how.

530
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 6: Bad he looked, you know, getting pummeled by Oldberg. So

531
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 6: that's that's what pushed me on knockout, just because I

532
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 6: don't think he's fully recovered there. It seems like usually

533
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 6: guys that take at least fourish months, and this isn't

534
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 6: three full ones, so that certainly doesn't help. And then yeah,

535
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 6: Sean pointed out Manfield is about a year older, a

536
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 6: year and a half older. If you looked at pictures

537
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 6: of these guys, you would one hundred percent get that wrong.

538
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 4: Though, as a Matt merger Kanof.

539
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 6: Looks like he's forty eight years old, but he's He's

540
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,640
Speaker 6: actually like a year and a half younger than Menafield,

541
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 6: so don't let the appearances fool you. He's the younger

542
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 6: man here with less miles as well, right, a few

543
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 6: less pro fights and never been beaten, so obviously hasn't

544
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:39,880
Speaker 6: been knocked out either.

545
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 3: Okay, and best bets.

546
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 1: As we teased, these guys are taking from each other

547
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 1: and sharing, or as Billy said, they're giving each other permission.

548
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 1: I like that way he worded it earlier. So Sean,

549
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 1: you'd like to echo one of Billy's dogs from earlier.

550
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, mahawell, stay check. I almost one consensus best bet here

551
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 5: with Billy because he had his stuff in the sheet first.

552
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 5: But that was the place one bet on this card.

553
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 5: It would be McCall olik state. Chuck Now lost his

554
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 5: last two fights pretty quickly, both via submission. That, as

555
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 5: Billy said, not going to be an issue for him here.

556
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 5: Shaer bullet is not going to grapple him. This is,

557
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 5: for all intents and purposes, a boxer against a kicker,

558
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 5: and Sharah I don't really like his hands. I think

559
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 5: he's the liability. Defensively, he's getting put in Hollywood movies

560
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 5: as a villain and he is GOLDI bit hype train

561
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 5: right now, but I don't think he's a particularly good fighter.

562
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 5: I think he has some nice, flashy kicks, that's about it.

563
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:31,719
Speaker 3: McCall.

564
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 5: Big power, you know, came down former light heavyweight or

565
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 5: middleweight now welterweight, but came down to class, and that

566
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 5: power itself has a ton of round one finishes on

567
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 5: his record throughout his career. But it's not like he

568
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 5: can't win decisions. He's four and one on the scorecards.

569
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 5: The cardio down a weight class not as great as

570
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 5: it would be, you know, without cutting the weight. But

571
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 5: that said, I still think he has a serious chance,

572
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 5: not only to win this fight early and winning round

573
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 5: one like he typically does. And you can certainly sprinkle

574
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 5: his round one odds at nine to one, ten to one,

575
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 5: because that is typically how he wins. And he's probably

576
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,479
Speaker 5: going to pressure Shara, and I would imagine he has

577
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 5: a handshake agreement with the UFC to make Sharff fight

578
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 5: because Shara basically in his past two fights hasn't fought.

579
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 5: He's just sit on the outside and kicked his opponents

580
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 5: and hasn't engaged, and he was favored or his shortest

581
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 5: odds were to win by knockout or to win inside

582
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,360
Speaker 5: the distance of both of those fights, could have probably

583
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 5: never really pursued it. So you know, this is the

584
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 5: guy who's had legal problems for like beating people up

585
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 5: in public. He's he's seemingly more aggressive in public than

586
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 5: he is once he's in the cage. It's very odd,

587
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 5: but I think he's flashy, and I think he's the

588
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 5: hype trade, and I don't think he's particularly good. Now

589
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 5: I would have loved to have bet against him with

590
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 5: a guy who can actually grapple, or who will proactively

591
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 5: offensively grapple, even if they're not particularly good at it.

592
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:00,639
Speaker 5: This is going to be a shred fight, but I

593
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 5: still don't think it is anything less than a competitive

594
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:09,360
Speaker 5: striking fight, especially early. And I actually tend to lean

595
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,159
Speaker 5: more towards the overs or the fight to go to

596
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 5: a decision, because even though I do think McCall will

597
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 5: make Shara fight, I still think there's the likelihood that

598
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 5: they just sort of strike it out for fifteen minutes

599
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 5: and that nobody ultimately falls. I think McCall is more

600
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 5: vulnerable to the body than he is to the head,

601
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 5: so maybe those kicks, you know, maybe Shara lands a

602
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 5: bodykick and puts him down or something like that. But yeah,

603
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 5: by and large, I think Olik say, Chuck is going

604
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 5: to be landing more head strikes. I think he is

605
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 5: the higher likelihood of winning by ko and I don't

606
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 5: think Shara is going to attack him in the grappling,

607
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 5: where he is by far weakest, where he is like

608
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 5: almost incompetent compared to his striking skills. So yeah, clear

609
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 5: plus two town. I mccallox say, Chuck, I think this

610
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 5: fight is a coin flip on the feet. I think

611
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 5: he's guts vastly more UFC experience. Obviously there's an age differential,

612
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 5: but you know, I'll take the punt sure over the

613
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 5: kicker in pretty much any fight, and just judges prefer punches, and.

614
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 1: Billy will wrap with loopy as to why you're gonna

615
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 1: support Sean's bet that you had said earlier that you

616
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: have received permission to do so.

617
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 6: Before I jump on that one, though, what age differential

618
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 6: are you referring to?

619
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 5: You know, I'm thinking Shara is younger, he's Yeah, they're

620
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 5: the they're the same age. It's it's more the damage

621
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 5: differential and the fact that Mhal is like, did he

622
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 5: get his arm broken against Kevin Hollands? He refused to

623
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 5: tap out to that arm bar. Is he coming in

624
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 5: here with like a mangled arm, you know, in one

625
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 5: arm that works? That's that's the That's the concern for me,

626
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 5: is he got kicked in the body by Michelle Pereira,

627
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 5: fell to the ground, choked out. I think he got

628
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 5: his arm snapped by Kevin Holland. Now he's coming back

629
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 5: a few months later, So I'm like, I'm worried a

630
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 5: bit about the physical stuff, but beyond that, I think

631
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 5: he's probably the better fighter.

632
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 6: I kind of am too, But we're bearing the lead

633
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 6: a little bit here. Charl Bullet has one eye, Like

634
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 6: he literally can't see out of one of his eyes.

635
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 6: So when you talk about it striking defense, yeah, I

636
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 6: mean if you can only see punches from half the side.

637
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 6: And we're worried about Michael's physical tools, but like he

638
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 6: has the use of sight in all directions, he.

639
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,239
Speaker 5: Can't fight most of the first off, he can't get

640
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 5: a besta to come to the US because he's assaulting

641
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 5: people in Dagistan. But also he wouldn't be allowed to

642
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 5: fight in a lot of jurisdictions in the US because

643
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 5: you need two eyes to be able to fight. Michael Bisping,

644
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 5: you know, had to stop fighting because there was no

645
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 5: where he could fight in the US. So yeah, it's

646
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 5: a physical issue that he has to overcome in all

647
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 5: of his fights. And again, another thing that helps the

648
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 5: guy punching as opposed to kicking.

649
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 6: And Ola jay Chuk is the first UFC Southball he's fought.

650
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 6: I'm not sure which eye is off the top of

651
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 6: my head, but if it's your right eye and coming

652
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 6: on the left. But yeah, so there's a lot to

653
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 6: like about Mahow. Basically, that's why you know I had

654
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 6: is my favorite underdog. Sean has his best bet looping

655
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 6: back to Loopy gotten as who Sean mentioned earlier. I

656
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 6: think the best you can get is even money. Now,

657
00:30:58,560 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 6: I put it in the luck ratings when she was

658
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 6: plus one ten.

659
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 4: Loved that.

660
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 6: But yeah, I fully agree with Sean. It's a jiu

661
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 6: jitsu fighter versus wrestler where the jiu jitsu fighter really

662
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 6: wants the things to be on the ground and the

663
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 6: wrestler won't let her get it there.

664
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 4: I don't think Lupy is a great striker, but.

665
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 6: Compared to how we've seen McKenzie Durn lately, I think

666
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 6: she's a lot better than that. Only thing I wanted

667
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 6: to add I should have mentioned this with prop. Lupy

668
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 6: has never gotten a knockout in her career, but Mackenzie

669
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 6: Durn has been dropped five times over her last two fights,

670
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 6: and that chin just might be gone. So if we

671
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 6: think Lupy keeps this standing and she's the better boxer,

672
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 6: which I don't think you can really argue with either

673
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 6: of those assertions, fourteen to one on a knockout, I

674
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 6: love that. So I put nine tenths of a unit

675
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 6: on Lupy at plus one ten to win roughly one unit,

676
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 6: and then you know, sprinkle point one on her.

677
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 4: Knockout prop because if there's ever going to be a time.

678
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 6: The other thing I should point out for the knockout,

679
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 6: Mackenzie Durn is booked to compete in a pretty high

680
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 6: profile grappling match two weeks from now. And I'm not

681
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 6: a big in the MMA gods, but if there's one

682
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 6: thing the MMA gods hate, it's hubris and booking yourself

683
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 6: in another competition two weeks from now, with an MMA

684
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 6: fight in between. It just feels like one of those

685
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 6: things that always goes wrong in this sport, and a

686
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 6: knockout from Loopy would be the way to make that

687
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 6: go wrong.

688
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 4: So I'm half.

689
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 6: Kidding with that, but sometimes when you look past your opponent,

690
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 6: you you invite more of that. And if she's training

691
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 6: for a grappling competition and her striking is already suspect,

692
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 6: also probably not a great sign. So love the Loopy

693
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 6: money line, little bit sprinkle on the knockout, and yeah,

694
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 6: totally in agreement with Sean's reid on that.

695
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 5: Otherwise, one of the quickest ways you could see a

696
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 5: striking efficiency add up striking accuracy percentage, striking defense percentage.

697
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 5: You want fighters generally who are over one oh one combined.

698
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,479
Speaker 5: Loopy's at one to eleven forty eight percent offense, sixty

699
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 5: three percent defense. Really good defensive striker Dern is at

700
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 5: ninety one forty percent of her strikes landed, fifty one

701
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 5: percent striking defense. She's a punching bag. She also has

702
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 5: a lot of trouble hitting her opponents. There's a twenty

703
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 5: percent differential and commind striking accuracy and defense. Normally the

704
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 5: gap is like three to five percent between opponents. Twenty

705
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 5: percent is massive. This isn't even close on the feed.

706
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 5: So yeah, I like that Lupy Kalo Billy that. I

707
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 5: think that's interesting and long. I hope that's not off

708
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 5: ball this week.

709
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 6: The difference would probably be even larger if you removed

710
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 6: all of durant ground strikes. Is yeah, because she's like

711
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 6: arguably the best jiu jitsu competitor ever in the UFC

712
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 6: in terms of credentials at very least, like no World champ,

713
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 6: new World Champ championships at different levels, been training since

714
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 6: she was like three or four, right, unquestionable grappling credentials.

715
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 4: Most of the strikes she lands around the ground too.

716
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 4: You take all those out, it's even worse.

717
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 6: You can say a little bit the same about Loopy

718
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 6: because she's a good wrestler. But I would bet if

719
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 6: you remove ground strikes, the descrapanty gets even wider.

720
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 5: Oh I'm sure, yeah, yeah. Just you know, that's a

721
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 5: that's a little quick interesting reference stat you can find

722
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 5: just by combining those numbers, because you know, typically when

723
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 5: fives have lower accuracy, they have higher defense. It means

724
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 5: they're just further away from their opponents. But typically, like

725
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 5: if they're striking accuracies at fifty percent, their defense is

726
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,919
Speaker 5: closer to fifty percent because it means they're they're more

727
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 5: in the pocket and likeler to get hit. So just

728
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 5: a quick little efficiency reference number, but you don't normally

729
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 5: see a gap that large between two fighters. That really

730
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 5: caught my attention that the striking defensive stats. You know,

731
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 5: normally you see a difference in one stat right, like

732
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 5: a fighter may defense strikes at sixty percent of the

733
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 5: opponent of fifty percent they're striking accuracy maybe the same.

734
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 5: It's it's not a huge advantage for one fighter typically

735
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,280
Speaker 5: in both areas, and here it is there.

736
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 3: A chance Loopy becomes out of range.

737
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 5: As far as the price, past minus one oh five

738
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 5: is where i'd stop betting her. I make her a favorite.

739
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 5: I made her about fifty three percent, but yeah, I

740
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 5: wouldn't take past minus one oh five. I know Billy

741
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 5: got closer to plus one twenty. I took about plus

742
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 5: one oh six, so it seems to be continuing to

743
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 5: take in her direction. But I think a pick them

744
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 5: price is fine minus one oh five. I wouldn't really

745
00:34:58,200 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 5: go much chress Up.

746
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:01,399
Speaker 4: I'd probably go a little bit further.

747
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 6: I'm fairly confident in this one, but you could also, like,

748
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 6: if you're worried about it, juice it up with the

749
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 6: same game parlay.

750
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 4: Add a couple of minutes to it, right, Because if.

751
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 6: Lupy does get a knockout finish, I really don't think

752
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 6: it's going to be on one big punch.

753
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 4: It's gonna because she's wearing her down over the fight.

754
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 6: So add over, half around or over you know, three

755
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 6: minutes or whatever. Yeah, that'll be enough. That would push

756
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 6: it back to plus money anyway.

757
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 5: So yeah, if your creator and a half minutes, it's

758
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 5: there to be a submission. That's the that's the quick

759
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 5: finish in this fight. So yeah, loopy loopy iterations with

760
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 5: overs right, like you said, the over, half around, over around,

761
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 5: all right.

762
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 3: Very good again.

763
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 1: Main card from Abu Dhabi starts on at three pm

764
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 1: Eastern Time. ABC prelims at noon over on ESPN too

765
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 1: the ESPN.

766
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 3: Family of networks.

767
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: That concludes our UFC betting preview for Shonzarella Billy Ward.

768
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: Find those guys in the free award winning Action Network

769
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:56,720
Speaker 1: app should they add anything live.

770
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 3: And that's really a quick turnaround. Those are tough to

771
00:35:58,520 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 3: kind of get around to, but if.

772
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 1: You are populating in the app, have a look at

773
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:08,399
Speaker 1: those guys as the card gets underway tomorrow afternoon. Thanks

774
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 1: for tuning in to this UFC betting.

775
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 3: Preview on the Action Network podcast.

776
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 1: We are presented by BETMGM no great weekend Best of WUK.

777
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:27,279
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778
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,520
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779
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780
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