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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today,

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Speaker 1: extra amazing because we're back. Yeah, finally back Crystal. Indeed,

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Speaker 1: we do nice to be back in the chair. We

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Speaker 1: did miss you guys, although it's a little bit nice

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Speaker 1: to have a week off. Yeah, reset refresh by say

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Speaker 1: anything group, blame it on jet Lab. I'm still blaming

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Speaker 1: long Covid for any gripind fog that I have from

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Speaker 1: here on out. Before we get to what's in the show.

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Speaker 1: We do have a couple of announcements off the top

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Speaker 1: be the first of many. I know. I'm really excited.

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Speaker 1: We're already planning, making sure it's going to be a

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Speaker 1: grateful to all of you, absolutely absolutely, and a lot

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Speaker 1: of you have all right upgraded, which I want to

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Speaker 1: thank you for. The response to the promotion has been

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Speaker 1: really strong, and again it just really helps us out

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Speaker 1: for this year as we're planning for the midterms, so

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Speaker 1: we're thinking about bringing another person on. It just really

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Speaker 1: helps us to plan all of that. Okay, in the

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Speaker 1: show today, we do have some new developments out of

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Speaker 1: Uvaldi and actually some new indications that politically this is

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Speaker 1: hurting Texas Republicans in terms of their failed response to

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Speaker 1: the massacre of those students in that town. We also

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Speaker 1: have a sort of deal between Russia and Ukraine on

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Speaker 1: shipping out graine through the Black Sea, but then Russia

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Speaker 1: immediately started sholling the port city that the grain is

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Speaker 1: supposed to go out, And so we've got all of

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Speaker 1: those updates for you. Also, Democrats finally making some intelligent

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Speaker 1: political moves in the House and the Senate, putting Republicans

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Speaker 1: on the spot with some tough votes on gay marriage

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Speaker 1: and contraception access, and also some related to abortions. So

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Speaker 1: we'll give you those breakdowns, new numbers about exactly who

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Speaker 1: is to blame for the chaos at American airports. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, it is exactly what you think. It

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Speaker 1: is the airline's fault in spite of all of their

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Speaker 1: attempts to blame shift, it is their fault. And of

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Speaker 1: course Pee Boodage in charge of the Department of Transportation

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Speaker 1: doing nothing and also sort of really gaslighting the public

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Speaker 1: about exactly how on top of the issue he has been. Also, guys,

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Speaker 1: stock alert here for those of you who are you

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Speaker 1: making moves in the market. Paul Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi's husband,

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Speaker 1: making some big moves ahead of some potential legislation with

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Speaker 1: regards to chips. So we will tell you about that.

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Speaker 1: But Sager, we did want to start with the very

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Speaker 1: latest out of the investigation in Uvaldi. Yeah, we got

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Speaker 1: to stay on top of this story. And when we're

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Speaker 1: looking over the things of the last week. Yes, I

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Speaker 1: know Biden has COVID, he seems fine. You know wish

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Speaker 1: him the best, but this is always going to be

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Speaker 1: one that we want to try and stick to as

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Speaker 1: much as possible because the reports out of it everyone

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Speaker 1: seems to be more unbelievable than the next. And we

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Speaker 1: finally have some even more horrific details. Put this up

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Speaker 1: there on the screen now, the latest report out of

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Speaker 1: the state of Text. This is eighty page reports basically

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Speaker 1: being obtained by multiple media outlets. This was realed by

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Speaker 1: authorities the Texas State Senate and others tells us that

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Speaker 1: nearly four hundred four hundred law enforcement officials were outside

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Speaker 1: and had rushed to the mass shooting before they had

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Speaker 1: actually gone in breached the door. This picture that those

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Speaker 1: who are watching can just see in front of you

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Speaker 1: is literally of a officer standing in front of other

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Speaker 1: officers with his hands up like this, preventing them from

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Speaker 1: going into the hallway to where the shooter was located.

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Speaker 1: And throughout that report they blamed quote systemic failures. Yet

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Speaker 1: you think for exactly what exactly happened here, I think

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Speaker 1: it's horrific because they really just point to the fact that,

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Speaker 1: as we'd already learned, if these guys had done their jobs,

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Speaker 1: the shooter could have been neutralized within three minutes of

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Speaker 1: the shooting. Three minutes and we already know, based upon

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Speaker 1: video evidence, that there were not only officers on the scene.

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Speaker 1: There were officers. They didn't just have handguns, they had

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Speaker 1: high powered rifles, they had what they needed. There even

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Speaker 1: was an officer there who had a riot shield or

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Speaker 1: some sort of ballistic shield that could have been used.

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Speaker 1: As we also know, the door itself was unlocked, and

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Speaker 1: they spent twenty to thirty odd minutes, you know, kind

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Speaker 1: of faking around trying to quote find the key, even

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Speaker 1: though they didn't need a key. Nobody even asked for

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Speaker 1: a key in the initial thirty minutes of what was happening.

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Speaker 1: It ultimately, it really took a tremendous act of insubordination

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Speaker 1: on behalf of some border patrol officers who were like,

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Speaker 1: you know what, forget it, We're just going to go in. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and all of that. So all of that is detailed

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Speaker 1: here in the report. But the top line, four hundred four,

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Speaker 1: that's almost as many kids who were in the damn

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Speaker 1: school who are on sen completely insane. Yeah, And I

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Speaker 1: think what it shows is, you know, we've seen so

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Speaker 1: many shifting narratives. And that is actually another piece that

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Speaker 1: came out some talking points that they had about the

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Speaker 1: narrative that they wanted to push. That you heard politicians

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Speaker 1: from Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas on down pushing

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Speaker 1: immediately after this happened, before we knew any of the

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Speaker 1: facts of just how failed this response ultimately was. Then

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Speaker 1: once that narrative starts to fall apart, then there was

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Speaker 1: an attempt to really put one hundred percent of the

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Speaker 1: blame on Pete Rodondo, who is of course in charge

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Speaker 1: of the Uvaldi School District Police Force. Now, listen, that

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Speaker 1: dude deserves a lot of blame. But when you've got

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Speaker 1: four hundred law enforcement officers and we're talking about one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty Border Patrol agents, ninety one state police officials,

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Speaker 1: and then you have the local PD, you had US

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Speaker 1: federal marshals on the scene, every level of law enforcement,

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Speaker 1: and they all just stand around for an hour and

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Speaker 1: twenty minutes and do nothing, it really does show you

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Speaker 1: how there is something that has gone really awry in

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Speaker 1: terms of law enforcement. I mean, we were talking before

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Speaker 1: the show about this Indiana shopping mall where there was

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Speaker 1: a shooting and an ordinary civilian with a gun was

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Speaker 1: able to take this guy out like this, and you

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Speaker 1: just realized that. You know, something we said from the

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Speaker 1: beginning is you honestly would have had a much more effective,

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Speaker 1: much better, and much less deadly response if just random

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Speaker 1: parents had been given guns and weapons and been able

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Speaker 1: to go in. Because this is an absolute atrocity, the

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Speaker 1: fact that it was every single level. No, no, no,

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Speaker 1: the blame is not on one person. It is on

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Speaker 1: every single person who stood there and did absolutely nothing

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Speaker 1: and was happy to shift the blame, happy to shift

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Speaker 1: the responsibility, happening, pretend that it wasn't their problem. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is the twenty two year old in Indiana. Elijha Dickon.

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Speaker 1: I hope I'm saying that right, Elijah. If you're out there,

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Speaker 1: definitely a hero and you know actually just exactly what

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Speaker 1: you're talking about. This is a proficient guy in firearms,

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Speaker 1: He had his gun on him, he actually had found cover.

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Speaker 1: He was asking people to move behind him as he

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Speaker 1: moved forward, took the shooter out in a matter of minutes.

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Speaker 1: You have four hundred here. I also do think that

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Speaker 1: unfortunately some of the blame, the most blame has gone

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Speaker 1: towards Pete Rodondo and look, it should and we're about

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Speaker 1: to get to even more of why that guy should

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Speaker 1: be fired and some more cover to continue. However, there

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Speaker 1: were federal marshals who are on the scene. I actually

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Speaker 1: got some messages from people who watch the show who

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Speaker 1: are in the Federal Marshals Service US Marshals, and they're like,

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Speaker 1: this is an outrageous They're like, these people are a

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Speaker 1: disgrace to our so they even understand. He was telling

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Speaker 1: me that the way that they train is specifically for

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Speaker 1: situations like this, and they're like, yeah, you know, anybody

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Speaker 1: can expect some small Yokal PD not to do the best,

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Speaker 1: but yeah, have guys there with millions of dollars in training,

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Speaker 1: you know, for well supposedly for situations like this, and

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Speaker 1: who don't do anything. I also want to spend some

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Speaker 1: time on that narrative thing that you brought up, because

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Speaker 1: it's very important, which is similar. There were some documents

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Speaker 1: that came out the city of Uldi itself days after

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Speaker 1: the shooting occurs, and they're meeting with the Texas Department

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Speaker 1: of Public Safety. They're not going over what went wrong.

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Speaker 1: They are lambasting him for criticizing their response and have

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Speaker 1: created an official government document that was titled Narrative, and

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Speaker 1: it has a different version of events from what made

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Speaker 1: you described as the facts, in which they say, oh,

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Speaker 1: well he was barricaded and according to that, well do

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Speaker 1: we have a different to training regimen complete bs there.

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Speaker 1: They literally trained for this months before in the school

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Speaker 1: where this actually happened. They knew and it even says

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Speaker 1: written in the documents, you may be the first person

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Speaker 1: there and you may have to put your life on

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Speaker 1: the line in order to immediately stop. Everybody knows active

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Speaker 1: shooter situation, that the bleeding stops whenever the shooting starts.

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Speaker 1: And also for those who were coming to these cops defense,

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Speaker 1: they're like, well, you know the majority of the shooting

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Speaker 1: took place in the first three minutes. Okay, let's say

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Speaker 1: you saved one, maybe two lives immediately, just in terms

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Speaker 1: of those shots worth it worth. And then even more so,

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Speaker 1: remember there are people who bled out on that floor.

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Speaker 1: I mean everybody who you know. It's called the golden

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Speaker 1: hour in combat for a reason, because you need an

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Speaker 1: hour or within that hour you have I think it's

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Speaker 1: dramatically exponentially higher likelihood of surviving, like even horrific gunshot wounds,

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Speaker 1: So who knows how many kids may have been in

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Speaker 1: critical condition versus who have been bled out on the course.

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Speaker 1: Another another piece that came out in this report is

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Speaker 1: the fact that they did know the nine nine were

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Speaker 1: coming from inside the room. And there was a lot

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Speaker 1: of question of that initially, of like, oh, maybe they

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Speaker 1: didn't know that there were still kids in there and

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Speaker 1: that those kids were still alive. No, this has now

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Speaker 1: been revealed. They knew, they knew that there were kids

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Speaker 1: in there. They're calling nine to one one begging for

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Speaker 1: help as they you know, sort of like bumbled around

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Speaker 1: and pretended like they were finding a key when you've

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Speaker 1: got me new had even the door wasn't even locked.

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Speaker 1: Number one. They didn't even try the knob. That's number one.

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Speaker 1: Number two, And if the door was locked, they had

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Speaker 1: everything they needed within three minutes to force fully reach

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Speaker 1: that door even if it was locked. So it's just

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Speaker 1: it's just mind boggling. It really is not mind boggling

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Speaker 1: to watch four hundred law enforcement officials from every single level,

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Speaker 1: all in their gear, all gi jode up standing around

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Speaker 1: and hoping that someone else is going to deal with

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Speaker 1: the issue. We also have the video that we've seen.

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Speaker 1: Let's go out that we had been heard described to us,

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Speaker 1: going and put this up there on the screen. You

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Speaker 1: have Officer Ruben Ruiz here. He is actually a Uvaldi

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Speaker 1: PD officer. You could see for those who are watch,

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Speaker 1: he's coming forward with his gun in his hand and

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Speaker 1: he's saying, she's been shot. She's been shot. You can

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Speaker 1: see officers there actually putting their hands around him, kind

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Speaker 1: of pushing him back. Look, there's been some judgment of

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Speaker 1: the guy, like he didn't fight hard enough. That's all

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Speaker 1: Monday morning quarterbacking. He was clearly in shock and trauma.

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Speaker 1: And actually we talked previously about an officer was on

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Speaker 1: his phone. He was actually the guy who was on

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Speaker 1: his phone because he was checking to make sure he

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Speaker 1: was getting text messages and calls from her and how

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Speaker 1: she was getting shot inside of the construct shelter. Parrish. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he says there in the video, she said she's been shot,

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Speaker 1: and they still pull him back. So they know that

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Speaker 1: people are getting shot inside. We know that, but the

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Speaker 1: nine to one one calls, we know that the you know,

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Speaker 1: her own husband is outside of the room being restrained

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Speaker 1: by his colleagues. Pushback kind of like that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's just a horrific situation, as we said, also in

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Speaker 1: terms of the reporting and Pete Radondo's show's up there.

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Speaker 1: So this school board has now delayed. They were supposed

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Speaker 1: to fire him four days ago. Pete Rodondo, he was

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Speaker 1: placed on leave obviously, and from the city council as well. Well.

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Speaker 1: They canceled the meeting which was on Saturday, where they

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Speaker 1: were scheduled to quote consider firing the police chief, and

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Speaker 1: they're blaming it on process. Look, they had the vote

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Speaker 1: ready to go then they canceled the meeting ahead of

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Speaker 1: where this guy's been by It's been over a month

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Speaker 1: since the shooting even happened, So in what world is

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Speaker 1: this not even justice accountability? Most people have made peace

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Speaker 1: with the fact that these guys will never be able

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Speaker 1: to be criminally prosecuted, even though I think many of

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Speaker 1: them should be, specifically Pete Rodondo, at the very least,

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Speaker 1: we want him to be fired, we want him to

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Speaker 1: have his job lost, and yet they can't even come

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Speaker 1: around to firing him. It's crazy what the residents are saying.

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Speaker 1: And I think what any decent human being in the

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Speaker 1: country would say is that not a single one of

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Speaker 1: these people deserves to have a badge. I mean, all

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Speaker 1: four hundred of them that stood by, men and women

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Speaker 1: in their gear, that stood by and did nothing, Not

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Speaker 1: one of them deserves to you know, pretend to protect

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Speaker 1: and serve. So the fact that even this one dude

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Speaker 1: who you know, really was supposedly in charge and was

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Speaker 1: the one who came up with this idea of oh,

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Speaker 1: it's you know, it's not it's a barricaded subject, so

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Speaker 1: we need to just do nothing for an hour and

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Speaker 1: twenty minutes, and who even when they went in, was

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Speaker 1: still reluctant, was like, I guess you guys can go in,

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Speaker 1: but seemed to not really think it was the right

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Speaker 1: thing to do. At the very least, there could be

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Speaker 1: some accountability for this guy. And I think the failed

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Speaker 1: political response, just as the failed law enforcement response was

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Speaker 1: at every single level, from local to state to federal,

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Speaker 1: the failed political response also goes across every single level. Clearly,

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Speaker 1: the local good old boys network is closing ranks around

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Speaker 1: these guys and trying to protect them in every way

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Speaker 1: they can, and they have from the beginning, I mean,

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Speaker 1: blocking media, harassing the one the mom who tried to

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Speaker 1: go who did actually ultimately go in after being handcuffed

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Speaker 1: and get her children and was willing to speak out

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Speaker 1: to the press. But then you also see from the

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Speaker 1: governor on down, everybody sort of trying to close ranks,

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Speaker 1: trying to block any sort of public release of information,

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Speaker 1: and zero pressure for accountability at any level of government. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's go ahead and talk about Russia. I've been monitoring

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Speaker 1: the situation there closely, some mixed news out of the

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Speaker 1: conflict at the geostrategic level. Let's put this up there

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Speaker 1: on the screen. So at first it seemed like we

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Speaker 1: actually had some decent news that Ukraine and Russia had

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Speaker 1: actually signed a deal which was going to allow Keyv

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Speaker 1: to resume exports of grain through the Black Sea. People

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Speaker 1: should remember that Ukraine is one of the largest exporters

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Speaker 1: of grain in the world, and that that shortage was

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Speaker 1: leading to a potential and actually even realized food crisis

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Speaker 1: in much of the developing world, Africa many others that

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Speaker 1: import a ton of Ukrainian grain. Ukraine long known as

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Speaker 1: the bread basket of the Soviet Union during that time,

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Speaker 1: so the Russian navy had been blockading those grain exports,

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Speaker 1: and they agreed to this deal where they said that

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Speaker 1: they would be allowing Kiev in order to export that grain.

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Speaker 1: What's interesting also about the deal is it highlights the

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Speaker 1: changing nature of diplomacy in the year twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: In the past, the United States would have been party

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Speaker 1: to this deal, or not even party, would have been

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Speaker 1: the guarranter of this deal. But because of our policy,

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Speaker 1: which is don't ever meet any Russians, don't talk to

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Speaker 1: the Russians. I don't even think that the president has

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Speaker 1: spoken with Putin since after the invasion, there's been no

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Speaker 1: high level diplomatic contacts. I think Blincoln had maybe one

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Speaker 1: phone call with his counterpart over there. Well, Turkish President

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Speaker 1: Arediwan has actually stepped up to the play. He's been

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Speaker 1: holding a ton of talks between the two governments, and

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Speaker 1: he is really the one who broke her the deal.

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Speaker 1: Obviously that's noteworthy because Turkey is in NATO, and Turkey

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Speaker 1: and Aredawan specifically probably have the most heterodoctic so foreign

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Speaker 1: policies within the NATO alliance, especially given there they have

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Speaker 1: a complicated relationship with Russia. But as of recently they've

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Speaker 1: been talking with them given what was happening in Sirias.

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Speaker 1: So they have a lot of high level military contacts specifically,

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Speaker 1: and actually the Russian top general is one of the

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Speaker 1: people who was there whenever this deal was signed. The

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Speaker 1: deal was set to last for one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: days and was actually it was going to be monitored

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Speaker 1: out of Istanbul, but also staffed by the UN, Turkey,

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Speaker 1: Russia and Ukrainian officials. Now the issue though, is, as

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Speaker 1: was highlighted there, is that well, this deal is only

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Speaker 1: a deal if there's not a military response, and unfortunately

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Speaker 1: the Russians doing what the Russians do. Let's go and

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Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. Almost immediately when

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Speaker 1: it hit the Black Sea port despite the grain deal,

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Speaker 1: Russian missiles hours after the deal was signed to resume

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian grain exports actually came in and fired two caliber

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Speaker 1: cruise missiles which hit port infrastructure and Ukrainian air defenses,

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Speaker 1: which at least brought down to of the others. That's

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Speaker 1: according to the Ukrainian Military Command. But it is noteworthy

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Speaker 1: because they while they did not strike grain storage facilities,

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Speaker 1: which is what the Turks were highlighting, they did strike

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Speaker 1: port infrastructure and it does just generally comport with the

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Speaker 1: Russian strategy, not only to starve the Ukrainians out food wise,

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Speaker 1: but really in order to destroy their economy as much

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Speaker 1: as possible because this is such a critical export. So

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Speaker 1: it is a mixed bag in the in the diplomatic

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Speaker 1: in the diplomatic future for this conflict. And it doesn't

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Speaker 1: inspire confidence. You know, something you and I've been saying

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Speaker 1: here is like, hey, we need to have some diplomacy.

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Speaker 1: But it's also not hard. It's not easy to have

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Speaker 1: diplomacy if the people who are a party are going

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Speaker 1: to be breaking deals like this and just immediately violating it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Ukrainians said, this is a spit in

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Speaker 1: our face. I think that's it's hard. It's hard to

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Speaker 1: argue with that. It's really hard to argue with that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it definitely puts, i mean, at the best,

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Speaker 1: it puts the deal very much in doubt. And it

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Speaker 1: really is a shame there there's no enforcement mechanism in

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Speaker 1: this deal. It's basically you know, you do what can

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Speaker 1: you do? Right, It's a handshake kind of a deal.

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Speaker 1: And immediately after the deal is supposedly inked and agreed to,

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Speaker 1: Russia goes and does this and completely undermines it. And

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Speaker 1: it's really sad, not just because obviously the Horn of

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Speaker 1: Africa in particular has been extraordinarily hard hit not only

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Speaker 1: by this war, also by failed crops in part due

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Speaker 1: to the climate crisis, so they were in a very

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Speaker 1: precarious situation to start with. And also because of financial

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Speaker 1: situation around the world and inflation, it's costs more to

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Speaker 1: import grain anyway, So this has been really devastating for

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Speaker 1: poor nations around the world, and so the fact that

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Speaker 1: this was immediately undermined is truly a disaster. And the

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Speaker 1: other piece here too was Ardowan was actually hopeful that

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Speaker 1: maybe this could be the first step back to the

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Speaker 1: negotiating table, because your recall back when there were ongoing

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Speaker 1: meetings and talks about a potential negotiated settlement and diplomat

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Speaker 1: end to this war. Those were being facilitated by Turkey.

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Speaker 1: So you know, Urtawan had said he hoped it would

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Speaker 1: be the first step towards bringing the war to an end.

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Speaker 1: This joint stepartating with Ukraine and Russia will hopefully revive

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Speaker 1: the path to peace. Obviously that has not worked out, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it has. I mean I've said this and this is

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Speaker 1: the only way to look at it, which is that

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Speaker 1: as they've shown in political science, the more tempts that

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Speaker 1: you try to have a ceasefire, most seasfires fail, but

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Speaker 1: eventually some of them work. So the mere fact that

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Speaker 1: you're trying to sign a ceasefire can again can be

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Speaker 1: something that indicates some sort of forward direction. But I

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Speaker 1: do think the Artiwan government has done actually a pretty

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Speaker 1: decent job of at least continuing the talks. It took

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Speaker 1: two months just to get here. Maybe it'll take two

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Speaker 1: months to get to one that actually sticks, and then

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Speaker 1: maybe it'll take a year in order to get to

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Speaker 1: one that is further among along the diplomatic process. But

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Speaker 1: we should also not forget, you know, the war is

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Speaker 1: still not going well for the Ukrainians in the eastern

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Speaker 1: part of the country. They haven't suffered any major losses

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Speaker 1: since we lasted our show, but the continuing bombardment and

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Speaker 1: artillery is happening on the eastern front and they have

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Speaker 1: not made any forward progress despite massive shipments of arms

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Speaker 1: from the west. Another thing we wanted to highlight an update.

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Speaker 1: Let's put this up there Kaliningrad. So we talked previously

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Speaker 1: about how the Russians have an exclave outside of their

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Speaker 1: country Kaliningrad. This is an old Soviet Union type thing.

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Speaker 1: Give it guarantees them access to the Baltic Sea. Well,

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Speaker 1: there had previously been a ban by Lithuania, a NATO country,

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Speaker 1: in terms of rail transport of sanctioned goods in and

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Speaker 1: out of the Russian area of Kaliningrad. How this is

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Speaker 1: governed is very difficult, But the Lithuanians claimed again claimed

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Speaker 1: that based upon EU sanctions that they could not allow

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Speaker 1: the transport of these goods. The Russians were like, hey,

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Speaker 1: you're preventing the free movement of goods in between our country.

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Speaker 1: And this was never something that was supposed to even

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Speaker 1: be on the table in the past. Lots of accusations

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Speaker 1: flying between both Russia, accusing and basically threatening safe we're

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Speaker 1: rattling against the Lithuanians, which of course we have an

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Speaker 1: interest in because Lithuania is a NATO and they have

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Speaker 1: Article five protection anyway, So they have actually resumed the

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Speaker 1: lifting of rail restrictions for the Russian exclave. I think

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Speaker 1: that this matters because it generally is a soft folding

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Speaker 1: on many sanctions grounds on the West, so the hardest

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Speaker 1: hitting sanctions against the Russians, it's not just the financial ones,

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Speaker 1: it was against their oil and gas infrastructure. And I

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Speaker 1: talked a lot about before we left the natural gas

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Speaker 1: we're about to update everybody on. But the Canadians ultimately

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Speaker 1: did fold, and they're like, all right, you can have

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Speaker 1: your gas turbines because and even the US government was like, Okay,

431
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 1: ship them the damn gas turbines because we don't want

432
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,880
Speaker 1: the Germans to cut off from the nord Stream pipeline.

433
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 1: So we're still pursuing this strange dual track policy where

434
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,239
Speaker 1: we're not actually sticking to the harshest sanctions, like we'll

435
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 1: stick to them ish, but then when the Russians are

436
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 1: really threatened and they start ratching it up and the

437
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 1: stakes of that become clear, then we fold. So we're

438
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: doing this strange thing where you know, Russians are moving

439
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: this stuff between colin Ingrad, they're getting the gas turbines,

440
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,680
Speaker 1: they're printing hundreds of billions of euros a day with

441
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 1: gas and with oil. They're richer than they've ever been

442
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 1: before the Moscow government, not the people ink Russia. And

443
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 1: at the same time, so we're not hurting the Russian

444
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 1: war machine, but then we're also not moving towards any

445
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,880
Speaker 1: sort of diplomatic solutions. It's like the idiocy of the policy. Well,

446
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 1: I think it's a recognition that the policy has failed,

447
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,639
Speaker 1: and so they can't publicly back away from it because

448
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 1: they've sold their populations. Certainly here in the US we

449
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 1: were sold on like you're going to pay high gas prices,

450
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 1: but we're going to stick it to the Russians. This

451
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: is not worked out at all, but they are too

452
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 1: cowardly to actually fess up to that and say we

453
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: got to try different route. And they certainly are not

454
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: interested in pushing for a diplomatic solution, understanding that that

455
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: may be unattainable right now, even if we were putting

456
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 1: our force behind it. But the fact of the matter

457
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 1: is we're not putting our force behind it. And so

458
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 1: I think these little movements are a sort of subtle

459
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: acknowledgment that the overall sanctions policy has been a failure.

460
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,919
Speaker 1: It has not bled the Russian war machine, it has

461
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: not really hurt Putin ultimately, And I'm glad to see

462
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 1: them back down here in Cliningrad, because this was a

463
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 1: very Even though it may seem like a small thing,

464
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 1: this was a major escalatory talking point for Putin and

465
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 1: for Russia that he was. You know, in state media

466
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 1: there were really taking to their population as see how

467
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: far the West is going. See you how much they

468
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 1: hate to see how far they'll go beyond what even

469
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 1: that they've said, And the EU ultimately decided that the

470
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: transit ban only affects road, not rail, and that's what

471
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: allowed the transit to be opened back up by rail

472
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: to this area. So you know, when we covered this

473
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: originally we said this is a very dangerous situation. I

474
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: think still was still very much the case, and it

475
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 1: appears the Europeans looked at it and said, you know what,

476
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: the juice is not worth the squeeze is not worth

477
00:23:58,080 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: the risk here. So that's why it's so such a

478
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 1: foolish policy. Oh only by ruy raid roy road, not

479
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 1: by rail. Listen, either do it or don't, because if

480
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: you're not going to some half assed policy, then what's

481
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,120
Speaker 1: the point. I mean, they're being half punished, but not really.

482
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: They could still get their goods, they can still export

483
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: whatever they want, they could still pump their gas, but

484
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: oh god forbid. You know some Russian guy plays and

485
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 1: wimbled it. Yeah, what are we doing here? Those are

486
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 1: the ones that make you really crazy. I mean, it's

487
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: just like complete xenophobia with a complete theater and xenophobic

488
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 1: theater that everyone has just broadly accepted. It's gross, very foolish.

489
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show

490
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 1: for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal? Indeed, we

491
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 1: do a lot of big stories to get to. First

492
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: of all, are we in a recession already? Are we

493
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 1: heading towards a recession? The White House very much out

494
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: there trying to parse and come up with their own

495
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: alternative facts around the state of the economy. Also, as

496
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: we have been previewing, the Fed set to raise interest

497
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: rates to expectation is they will probably lift at seventy

498
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 1: five basis points point seventy five percent. There is an

499
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 1: outside chance that they'll lifted one percentage point either way.

500
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 1: This is an extraordinary move with major implications for you

501
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,359
Speaker 1: and for the economy. So we will break all of

502
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 1: that down. Also, some new questions about whether the Murdochs

503
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: and Fox News are turning on Trump. Yeah, it's an

504
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: interesting one, big debate out there. So we'll read some

505
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: of the tea leaves see what they're up to. Also,

506
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: Yesterday we brought you the news that Nordstream won that

507
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,719
Speaker 1: critical pipeline bringing natural gas in particular to Germany had

508
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: been turned back on. Now we're getting numbers about how

509
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 1: much capacity maybe on, but not really not a full

510
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: blast ye. So, and also a new deal just breaking

511
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 1: this morning among EU member nations to curb their natural

512
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 1: gas consumption. So we'll break all of that down for you.

513
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: Also another insider trading scandal, this time with a former congressman,

514
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: and we have this is kind of a stunning development,

515
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: a friend of the show, Glenn Greenwold, along with a

516
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: lot of other figures, Chelsea Gabert Ran Paul Lula, the

517
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 1: former president of Brazil, put on a blacklist in Ukraine

518
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: of people who are quote unquote spreading Russian propaganda. It's

519
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 1: completely it's completely insane, and it's part of a really

520
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 1: disturbing trend in Ukraine of cracking down on any descent.

521
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: So bring that to you. We also have a first

522
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 1: time guest on the show, Jonathan's want to add a

523
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: big scoop about the plans being laid for a second

524
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 1: Trump term. But before we jump into the latest news

525
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 1: about potential recession, we do have a couple of announcement.

526
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 1: Number One, you guys already known to say live show,

527
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 1: we got to sell those tickets people. Let's put this

528
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. September sixteenth in Atlanta. Obviously,

529
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a lot to discuss. It's going to

530
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: be election season, part of a bigger midterm tour that

531
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 1: Christal and I are doing with many other friends of

532
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: the show. We'll be making appearances across the country. I mean,

533
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 1: we're obviously going to drag Marshall Kilde of course, of course,

534
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,919
Speaker 1: but we're we're still looking at some others. All right,

535
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,959
Speaker 1: it's going to be great, and listen this tour, it's

536
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: this is the first show. As we've said, we have

537
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: to show people that we can sell these tickets. We'd

538
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 1: really really like to sell this one out as soon

539
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 1: as possible, just to prove it to many other venues

540
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 1: who we're speaking with exactly how many tickets we can booking,

541
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: et cetera. I don't want to bring people too far in,

542
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 1: but that is why we've been pushing it so hard,

543
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 1: so we deeply appreciate it. Number two, also as a

544
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: reminder our premium monthly subscribers, just if you could help

545
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 1: out the show for financial planning purposes, we are offering

546
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 1: a discount to upgrade to yearly. It is deeply appreciative

547
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 1: on our parts. It really helps, as we said, financial planning,

548
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: as we're looking to hire and expand further out into

549
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 1: the show. Just given everything with the economic situation, we

550
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 1: thought it was best and as such we're offering those

551
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: existing monthly subscribers the ability to upgrade. There is a

552
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: link in your premium newsletter at the very very top

553
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 1: for you to do so. For all, for the many

554
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 1: of you who have already done so, we appreciate it

555
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 1: so much, and they've been sending in such nice messages

556
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 1: like of course I can if you can't afford it,

557
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 1: no worries whatsoever. We totally get it, you know, given

558
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 1: what's happening with the economy right now. And so that's

559
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 1: probably a good segue actually to what we should discuss,

560
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 1: which is the Biden administration is facing down the barrel

561
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: of a quote technical recession. And whenever you do such

562
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: a thing, what do you do? You go? You know what,

563
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: let's just change the definition of recession. So that's what's happening.

564
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen. So Thursday,

565
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 1: we are likely to see a GDP report that shows

566
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 1: a second consecutive quarter of negative growth. Now, technically that

567
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: should be a recession. However, the Council of Economic Advisors,

568
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: which is appointed by the White House and which provides

569
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 1: supposed to be nonpartisan economic analysis to the executive branch,

570
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 1: is now changing the definition ahead of that Thursday GDP report.

571
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 1: And so Jackie Henrik, who is over at Fox News,

572
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: points out very clearly that the White House release says,

573
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: what is a recession? Oh, please tell us? While some

574
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 1: maintain two consecutive quarters of following real GDP constituted recession,

575
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 1: that is neither the official definition nor the way economists

576
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 1: evaluate the state of the business cycle. Instead, both official

577
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: determinations of recession economist secessions are based on a holistic

578
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: look at the data. Based on these data, it is

579
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: unlikely the decline in the gend of the first quarter

580
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: of this year, even if followed by another GDP decline

581
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 1: in the second quarter, indicates a recession. Well, there's a

582
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: little bit of a problem with that. Let's go ahead

583
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: and throw this next one. Let's go ahead actually and

584
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 1: listen on CNN Whenever the White House Economic Advisor is

585
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: pressed for changing this definition, and it will also show

586
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: you some historical stuff which outright proves that the White

587
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: House is lying. Let's take a listen to the White

588
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 1: House spin first. What will be comments from some saying

589
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 1: two quarters of negative growth in a row, that's a recession, right,

590
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 1: And certainly in terms of the technical definition, it's not

591
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: a recession. The technical definition considers a much broader spectrum

592
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: of data points. But in practical terms, what matters to

593
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: the American people is whether they have a little economic

594
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: breathing room, they have more job opportunities, their wages are

595
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,480
Speaker 1: going up. That has been Joe Biden's focus since coming

596
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 1: into office. Yeah, so are any of those things happening? No,

597
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: so it also is a recession. But as Michael Strain

598
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 1: points out, let's go and put this up there on

599
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: the screen, of the past ten times that the US

600
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: economy has experienced two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth,

601
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: how many times was a recession officially declared? Ten? So

602
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: ten out of ten times. Now, look, I get that

603
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 1: it's not great pr optics, but redefining definitions of recession

604
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: is frankly, in my opinion, worse than saying, yeah, we're

605
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: living through hard times. I'm doing everything I possibly can

606
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: about it. I will give one counter defense, Crystal. I

607
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: spoke with Joe Wisenthal friend over at Bloomberg. Here's what

608
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: he says. Every single post World War II recession saw

609
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: unemployment rise before it or during it. However, in the

610
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: first half of twenty twenty two, we saw unemployment fall

611
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: from three point nine to three point six. So that

612
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: is the defense of like the White House position. And

613
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: you know, Joe is not spinning, He's just giving you

614
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 1: the facts of why this one is wonky. Fine say that, hey,

615
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: this is a wonky recession, but redefining the term recession

616
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 1: really gaslighting people, also using criteria which clearly are negatively

617
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: trending for all of the American people. On top of

618
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: the fact that everybody know that nothing is working in

619
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: American society. You're not fooling everybody. It's such insane move

620
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: on their nominal wages maybe rising, but of course when

621
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 1: you count inflation, everyone is getting a pay cut basically

622
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 1: every week. So the idea that wages are going up,

623
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 1: I mean again, it's very gaslighting. And the bottom line

624
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 1: is this isn't going to work. People know what's going

625
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: on in their own lives. I just was looking, you know,

626
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: earlier this month, there was a poll that found fifty

627
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: eight percent of Americans already think the country is in

628
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 1: a recession. So they don't need your technical parsoning definition

629
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 1: to figure out what's going on in the economy. And

630
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 1: I think politicians really air when they try to persuade

631
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: people that things are going better than what they actually

632
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 1: think and feel. I think Obama made this same mistake

633
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: in his second term when he tried to sell the

634
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: recovery as something that was really robust and really amazing

635
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: when people were really still struggling, and it made him

636
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 1: vulnerable to defeat if the Republicans had run anyone other

637
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: than like a cartoon care like monopoly putocratic villain. And

638
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: so I think the Bind team throughout this period has

639
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 1: consistently made this same mistake of trying to sell the

640
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: unemployment numbers, trying to sell the nominal wage gains as

641
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 1: this incredible recovery and the media is just spinning and

642
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 1: the economy is actually great. You just don't understand it

643
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 1: when people know that things are really tight for them.

644
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 1: They know that, you know, the job market already there's

645
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: signs of significant deterioration that we're going to get to

646
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 1: in a moment. You have new unemployment claims coming and higher,

647
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: so you see that starting to ebb. Well, you already

648
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 1: see massive impacts in terms of the housing market. So

649
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 1: I was actually just reading an article about how upper

650
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: middle class Americans, not that they're the most compelling or

651
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: most sympathetic group, but they're really being squeezed right now

652
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: too because they didn't benefit from the pandemic programs which

653
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 1: means tested, and now their stock portfolios, which made them

654
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 1: feel like they had a lot of money, have all crashed.

655
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: Their housing values would which also made them feel like

656
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 1: they had a lot of money, are starting to crash.

657
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 1: They recognize they can't sell into this market. If they

658
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: did and tried to move somewhere else, they couldn't afford

659
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: a new home. So you have people increasingly in their

660
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 1: lives feeling like things are tight, like they can't afford

661
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: what they could at the grocery store, like they're having

662
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 1: to cut back. And the White House's like technical parsing

663
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: of whether or not it's a recession is not going

664
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: to change their minds on that. Yeah, and Janet Yellen,

665
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: the Treasury Secretary, is sticking to the same spin. Let's

666
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: go and put this up there on the screen. She says,

667
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: the economy shows no signs of recession. And once again

668
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 1: this is bs because Janet Yellen should know better. Her

669
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:39,959
Speaker 1: background is as a technical economist. Her and her husband

670
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: are both I think her husband is a Nobel prize

671
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 1: in the field of economic They're the ones who came

672
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: up with this definition. And yet now they are saying,

673
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: you don't see any of the signs. A recession is

674
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: a broad based contraction that affects many sectors of the economy.

675
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 1: We just don't have that. In the very same breath,

676
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 1: she acknowledges the impact of high inflation numbers on Americans,

677
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 1: typically gas, food, and other economic problems. And this the

678
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: issue that I really have on this is that they

679
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: are all over the place. Remember it was not even

680
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 1: three months ago Joe Biden was standing in front of

681
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 1: the Port of Los Angeles telling us that we've lived

682
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:17,959
Speaker 1: in the strongest economic recovery since World War Two. Look again,

683
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 1: they're using technical definitely like wholl Economy's unemployments three point nine,

684
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: What does the unemployment rate matter? If you cannot expec

685
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 1: if you cannot literally afford anything in your daily life,

686
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 1: if you can't buy a car. I mean, even just recently,

687
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 1: I was looking again, especially with this FED rate hike,

688
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 1: which is like we're about to talk about it, it's

689
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 1: about to come down the pipe. That's going to raise

690
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 1: the average car prices like eight hundred dollars a month.

691
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: That's not even including not even including insurance and all

692
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: the other attendant costs. And that's if you can buy

693
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: a car. So the used car market is on fire.

694
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 1: People are having real trouble taking out loans. Their credit

695
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 1: card usage is sky high. We're seeing all sorts of

696
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: insanity happened in the mortgage markets, in the loan markets.

697
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 1: That's on top of what have anyone been to a

698
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 1: grocery store lately. It's crazy, Like you look at a

699
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: you know, price of a pound of ground beef is

700
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 1: going for like eight to nine dollars, and you know,

701
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 1: we've even seen a reduction. And this is again what

702
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:19,840
Speaker 1: really bothers me. People are making really material cutbacks in

703
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 1: their daily lives. I told you about the booming YouTube

704
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 1: channel about how to cook like a depression housewife, Like

705
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 1: this is not good or American Yeah, they literally have

706
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 1: these old videos. I have a lot of friends who

707
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 1: could fill out that YouTube context. You're very effective at that.

708
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 1: This is grandma who has now died, but in twenty

709
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 1: thirteen did like a whole series, or their grandson. She's like,

710
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 1: here's how we used to cook in the depression, and

711
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 1: now our views are going like booming right now because

712
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: people are like, oh, how do I make like a

713
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 1: single Costco rotisserie chicken last for a week? We don't

714
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 1: want the American people if that's a terrible situation to

715
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 1: be in. You know, that leaves generational scars, no acknowledgment

716
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 1: by the government. That's that's the single failure I think

717
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 1: by the administration. Yeah, I think that's right. You have

718
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: to level with people. I mean, they just they know

719
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 1: what's going on. They see it and feel it better

720
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,399
Speaker 1: than you do. I mean, you know, we're talking about

721
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 1: officials who aren't worried about their next paycheck. They're not

722
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 1: worried about having to stretch a Costco chicken all week

723
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 1: their families. So the American people have a much better

724
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 1: sense of what is really happening on the ground. There's

725
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: another reason why people like Janet Yellen in particular, would

726
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 1: be interested in sort of spinning the numbers and pointing

727
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 1: to out, we have these really great, you know, low

728
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: unemployment numbers, which is true, but does not even come

729
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,879
Speaker 1: close to telling the whole story of what's going on here.

730
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 1: But if you have the economy already slipping into a recession,

731
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 1: you can't have the FED continuing to move forward with

732
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 1: these incredibly drastic hawkish measures, because you know, if you

733
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 1: already have tipped things into a recession and you still

734
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: have this high inflation, this proves the point that the

735
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 1: FED policy, the direction they're going in, is really not

736
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 1: working and is actually just making things worse. And I

737
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 1: guess that's a great transition to talk about what the

738
00:36:57,920 --> 00:36:59,919
Speaker 1: Fed is set to do this week. Let's go ahead

739
00:36:59,920 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 1: and put up Bloomberg article up on the screen. They're

740
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: on track at their Wednesday meeting to raise interest rates

741
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 1: by seventy five basis points. Again, that's just point seventy

742
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 1: five percent. That's for the second straight month when they

743
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 1: meet later in July. As you know, they raise interest

744
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 1: rates by a quarter point in March, a half point

745
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,320
Speaker 1: in May, three quarters of a point in June. That

746
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 1: was the biggest move since nineteen ninety four, and they

747
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 1: are set to replicate it this week on Wednesday. Now,

748
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 1: there had been some expectation, which is not completely out

749
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 1: the window, but seems like a very outside chance now

750
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 1: that they might go so far as to lift the

751
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: rates a full hundred basis points. That's a full percentage point,

752
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 1: So that would be, you know, quite astonishing and quite

753
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 1: significant of a move. But seventy five basis points is

754
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 1: no joke either. This is in an extraordinarily hawkish direction

755
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 1: that the Fed is pushing things in, and you know,

756
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 1: they're kind of flying blind. No one really has a

757
00:37:55,920 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: great sense of exactly how these interest rates increases going

758
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 1: to trickle down throughout the economy. We already see huge

759
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 1: impacts in terms of financing cars, in terms especially of

760
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 1: the housing market. As I was saying before, you're starting

761
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,439
Speaker 1: to see impacts even in the employment market as well,

762
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 1: in spite of the fact that you have had this

763
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,760
Speaker 1: these low unemployment numbers for a long time. The reason

764
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 1: that they seem to have backed off of the full

765
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 1: hundred basis point move is because they got some data

766
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: showing that US consumers long term inflation expectations actually declined

767
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: in early July, so they were forecast to go two

768
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: point eight percent versus three point one percent the month before.

769
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: That's what people's expectations of inflation were. So they sort

770
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 1: of looked at that, and I said, Okay, maybe we

771
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 1: don't need to go quite so far, but I don't

772
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,280
Speaker 1: want to underplay how extraordinary of a move this still

773
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 1: is to have for the second month in a row,

774
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: an interest rate increase that we have not seen since

775
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety four. Yeah, and actually what whilst, by the way,

776
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: the one hundred basis points not off the table, I

777
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 1: was just reading this morning that City Bank and many

778
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 1: other major traders on Wall Street are still betting on

779
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 1: the one hundred. They're willing to be surprised if they

780
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,920
Speaker 1: do go ahead and hit seventy five basis points. And

781
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: the reason again that this matters is that not only

782
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: was the previous rate hike the highest since nineteen ninety four,

783
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 1: and then you do it again, but you know, it's

784
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 1: it just shows you that given where inflation is right now,

785
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:22,839
Speaker 1: which is that we continue to have forty year highs

786
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 1: almost every month since the number comes out, there still

787
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be any indication that they're going to stop,

788
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:31,799
Speaker 1: so what others are pointing to? The chief economist over

789
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 1: at JP Morgan says, the real question is what comes after,

790
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 1: because they're going to have to continue hiking rates. They

791
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 1: could go up as high as five, six, seven, eight

792
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 1: nine percent, and they could continue, you know, month after month,

793
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 1: every time that they have these quarterly meetings, and if

794
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 1: they're increase seventy five basis points over a period of time,

795
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 1: and we could be looking at mortgage rates which are

796
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 1: nine or ten percent. Now, those of you who bought

797
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: houses in like the nineties won't be that sympathetic, but

798
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 1: it's a different country. We haven't lived in a country

799
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 1: like that for thirty some years. And I was actually

800
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 1: reading that the real issue also is the housing stock.

801
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 1: So obviously we have a major housing shortage across the

802
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 1: United States. Low interest rates and low mortgage or the

803
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 1: housing boom was actually fueling a hell of a lot

804
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 1: of construction. But now guess what the problem is. We

805
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: actually need that construction to finish, We really do. But

806
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 1: why would general contractors finish their houses if they can't

807
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 1: sell them? So it actually the housing increase. While yes,

808
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 1: will slow down the housing market, it also will probably

809
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 1: it will probably increase the housing shortage that we have

810
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 1: across the United States. So the investment that we have

811
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 1: right now is really a major problem. And also I

812
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 1: just you know, I can't emphasize enough in the past,

813
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: which is that the key tool that the FAT has

814
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 1: here is targeting demand and increasing unemployment. That is not

815
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: going to solve the vast majority of inflation that we

816
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 1: have right now in twenty twenty two. And you flag

817
00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:59,800
Speaker 1: this and look, no fanibolism with Warren here, But to

818
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 1: be fair, she's been actually pretty relentless. Let's put this

819
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 1: up there on the screen, writing well that she can

820
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 1: be good on economics when she's good. I yeah, you know,

821
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 1: her trade policy and all that are always supported. So

822
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 1: let's gohead and put this on the screen. Wall Street

823
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 1: Journal opinion paid so very clearly targeted the business economic elite.

824
00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 1: And she specifically points out here more aggressive rate hikes

825
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 1: are costs millions of jobs and will not address the

826
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:24,280
Speaker 1: cause of high prices. And she quotes the Federal Reserve

827
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 1: chairman when she asked him whether that was going to

828
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 1: bring down the price of gas or food, and he said, quote,

829
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 1: there are many things that we can't affect. Again, the

830
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,839
Speaker 1: reason it matters is your demand at the grocery store

831
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 1: is not the reason that we have seen seven to

832
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 1: ten to twenty percent increase for twenty percent, for example,

833
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 1: in the price of egg. It's supply. We have massive

834
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 1: supply problems. We have fertilizer problems. Climate obviously, you know

835
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: there's a scorcher all across the country. There's wildfires all

836
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 1: the way out west, not just here. Brazil had a

837
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: massive shortage, so a coffee is down by four you know,

838
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 1: there's a shortage of like forty percent. That's the reason

839
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: that there's such crazy increases. And we've had shortages in

840
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 1: the economy now for two years. We've had bad corporate planning,

841
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 1: and we've had over financialization. The Fed can't do anything

842
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: that's right about all those things. And she very articulately

843
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 1: lays that out here. Yeah, she did. This was well written,

844
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 1: like very easy for anyone to understand because she makes

845
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:23,239
Speaker 1: the argument very clearly, and I mean it goes a

846
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 1: lot of what we've been saying on this show. Frankly,

847
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: we played for you before that moment when she questioned

848
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve Chairman J Powell about so hiking interest rates

849
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: by the Fed. Is that going to deal with increased

850
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: gas prices? Is that going to deal with supply chain shocks?

851
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 1: And he very honestly said no. So it's like okay,

852
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 1: she lays down here. She says, all right, So then

853
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 1: if raising interest rates by the Fed, if that doesn't

854
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 1: solve these underlying issues that are actually made problem right now,

855
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 1: what do they actually do? And she says, when the

856
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 1: Fed raises interest rates, increasing the cost of borrowing money,

857
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 1: it becomes more expensive for businesses to invest in their operations.

858
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 1: As a result, employers will slow hiring, cut hours, and

859
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 1: fire workers, leaving families with less money. In the bloodless

860
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 1: language of economists, that's referred to as dampening demand. But

861
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 1: make no mistake, if the FED cuts too much or

862
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:18,360
Speaker 1: too abruptly, the resulting recession will leave millions of people,

863
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 1: disproportionately lower wage workers and workers of color, with smaller

864
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:25,919
Speaker 1: paychecks or no paycheck at all. So making it clear

865
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: that listen, as bad as the inflation situation is, the

866
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 1: inflation continuing to soar on top of a recession is

867
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: a way worse situation. She closes by saying, before the

868
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve triggers a recession. Mister pal should remember that

869
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 1: the one medicine in his kit does not treat every

870
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 1: economic illness. Low unemployment and high inflation are painful, but

871
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 1: a fed manufactured recession that puts millions of Americans out

872
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 1: of work without addressing high prices would be far worse.

873
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,479
Speaker 1: And as I pointed to you before, the Washing Post

874
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 1: has an article pointing to some of these signs that

875
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 1: the job market is starting to slow down. In other words,

876
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:08,040
Speaker 1: that yes, not only are we going to have two

877
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 1: quarters of GDP contraction, which is the sort of standard

878
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,320
Speaker 1: issue definition of a recession, but even the metrics that

879
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 1: the White House is using here are heading in the

880
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:19,840
Speaker 1: wrong direction. Let's go ahead and throw this up on

881
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 1: the screen. This is according to the Washington Post. They

882
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: say the job market is beginning to show cracks. Job

883
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 1: growth is slowing, vacancies are down, and unemployment claims are

884
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 1: ticking up. They point in particular to the tech sector,

885
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 1: which has of course taken a beating in terms of

886
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 1: the stock market. We're going to get a lot of

887
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 1: earnings out this week to get a better picture even

888
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 1: of what's going on there. Soccer talked about some of

889
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 1: this in his monologue yesterday, But they say that tech

890
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 1: tech hiring has fallen nine percent in just the past month.

891
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 1: That's compared with a five point four percent dip in

892
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 1: hiring across all industries. Number of tech firms and startups

893
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 1: laying off workers has picked up in recent weeks. You've

894
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:59,240
Speaker 1: had Netflix, Tesla, Coinbase all announcing job cuts or hiring freezes. Vimeo,

895
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,800
Speaker 1: the online video platform, and one time tech Darling announced

896
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 1: this week it is laying off six percent of their staff.

897
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 1: They also interview a lot of job recruiters and ordinary workers,

898
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 1: some people who, when the job market was super hot,

899
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 1: switched jobs, were actually recruited into new jobs with big

900
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 1: pay increases and exciting new roles and responsibilities, only to

901
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: see themselves laid off months later because of fears of

902
00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 1: recession and because of the fact that everything is slowing down.

903
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 1: So even the one number that the White House really

904
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 1: loves to point to and highlight, the low unemployment number,

905
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 1: that is also beginning to show signs of cracking. And

906
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: as I mentioned before, new unemployment claims are ticking up,

907
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:43,160
Speaker 1: not a good sign. Yeah. The stuff that I pay

908
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 1: even more attention to is like the candy point here,

909
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 1: convene seven to eleven eight hundred workers at the corporate level,

910
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 1: Ford eight thousand positions in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Rivian,

911
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 1: the electric car maker, down seven hundred delivery down. That

912
00:45:57,680 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 1: thing has always been a mess, though, hasn't it? Right? Yeah,

913
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 1: although I got to say this, you know, like bezos aside,

914
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:05,399
Speaker 1: the Rivian looks cool. I've never driven one. I saw

915
00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:08,320
Speaker 1: one on the road. It looks sweet. However, the mortgage

916
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 1: lender loan depot forty eight hundred jobs gone ahead and

917
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: slash this year. So it's not just tech, and this

918
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 1: stuff will bleed into the broader economy, especially if it

919
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 1: hits manufacturing. And why this is such a tragedy is

920
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 1: we are finally building more stuff in America for the

921
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:27,320
Speaker 1: first time in several years, the supply chain crisis, the tariffs,

922
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: all of it. For the first year on record, we

923
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 1: actually brought more manufacturing back to the United States. They

924
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:35,839
Speaker 1: said it couldn't be done people, Well, we proved them

925
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 1: that we actually could. And now all of a sudden

926
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:43,399
Speaker 1: decrease in demand, specifically FED policy would absolutely hammer many

927
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 1: of these new jobs and would frankly only increase the

928
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 1: pressure on the White House. Right now in order to

929
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:51,320
Speaker 1: remove tariffs, to outsource even more, and to cut costs,

930
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 1: because I think that's the other point that we should remember,

931
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,760
Speaker 1: which is that manufacturing, investment and all of that doesn't

932
00:46:56,800 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 1: just come out of capital. It comes out of your

933
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 1: ability to borrow. And if borrowing is way more expensive,

934
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 1: you can't hire more people, and you can't invest in

935
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 1: your future workforce. And we already know what Wall Street's

936
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 1: going to do. But they're going to cut jobs, try

937
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 1: and buy back their own stock in order to try

938
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 1: and save their pensions and all this other stuff. But

939
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,840
Speaker 1: none of that translates into a better economic future. I

940
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 1: think for people it's a grim picture. It really is.

941
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,919
Speaker 1: And the high level view is that. The reason why

942
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:23,879
Speaker 1: they are leaning so heavily on this, as Elizabeth Warren

943
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:26,959
Speaker 1: puts it, this medicine that is not the right cure

944
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 1: for the disease that ails us is because the only

945
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:33,279
Speaker 1: institutions that still function, that still function, and I mean

946
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 1: function in terms of actually being able to do anything,

947
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:38,839
Speaker 1: are basically the ones that are beholden to rich people. Also,

948
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 1: not only all of an undemocratic right, I mean everything

949
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 1: else has been completely unintentionally by the way hamstrung, gridlocked,

950
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 1: made so it is not responsive to the people whatsoever.

951
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,320
Speaker 1: And so the only institutions that are left that actually

952
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 1: have power and are able to operate, not in a

953
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 1: good fashion, but able to operate are the ones that

954
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,880
Speaker 1: have been sort of designed by and for rich people,

955
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:07,800
Speaker 1: the FED being key among those. Let's talk about Ukraine.

956
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,800
Speaker 1: This is a really troubling development, and you should be

957
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:14,280
Speaker 1: able to both separate the obvious view that the Russian

958
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine is unjust from your also ability to

959
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: critique the Ukrainian government and the way that it acts domestically.

960
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 1: They are not holy gods. They are able to criticize them,

961
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 1: supposedly as allies. Given that we provide them billions of dollars,

962
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 1: we should probably hold them to a standard of which

963
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 1: we try to hold all of people who are in

964
00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 1: the West. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian government has really pursued something

965
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 1: that I find very troubling. Let's put this up there

966
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 1: on the screen. They have issued a quote blacklist of

967
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 1: Russian propagandists. And this was from the Center for Countering

968
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: Disinformation established in twenty twenty one. Sounds familiar. Under President

969
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 1: Zelenski and headed by a former lawyer who sits on

970
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 1: the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, and its

971
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 1: aim is to quote detect and counter propaganda and destructive

972
00:49:02,960 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 1: disinformation and to prevent the quote manipulation of public opinion. Well,

973
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 1: on July fourteenth, it went ahead and published a list

974
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 1: of politicians, academics, activists that they say are quote promoting

975
00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: Russian propaganda, including some not only Western intellectuals, but politicians.

976
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 1: So let me read you some of the lists. Rand Paul,

977
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 1: the current Republican senator, former congresswoman Tulsey Gabbard, military and

978
00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 1: geopolitical analyst, Edward Lutwalk, realist and political scientist John Mersheimer,

979
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:43,400
Speaker 1: and finally heterodox journalist Glenn Greenwald. Now, again the criteria

980
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 1: for the inclusion is completely unclear. They simply label them

981
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:52,239
Speaker 1: in a list of having quote pro Russian opinions. Now

982
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:56,640
Speaker 1: I love this because really dig into what exactly the

983
00:49:56,760 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 1: reasons for being labeled this are. Edward Lutwalk, for example,

984
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 1: was labeled a Russian propagandis for suggesting that referendums should

985
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 1: be held in the Donetsk and Lahansk regions. Mersheimer is

986
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:14,760
Speaker 1: recorded as a Russian propagandist for saying this quote. NATO

987
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 1: has been in Ukraine since twenty fourteen, and for saying

988
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 1: quote NATO provoked Putin as far as Greenwald and others,

989
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:27,479
Speaker 1: they don't even give a proper reason. And I really

990
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:29,840
Speaker 1: think that going through the details of this matters because

991
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 1: the quote Russian propagandist label is thrown out willy nilly,

992
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 1: But the Ukrainian government is taking its cue from the

993
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 1: Twitter activists and the Western intellectuals. You're in Washington, and

994
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:46,320
Speaker 1: Edward Lukwok actually gives perfect a perfect retort. He says,

995
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 1: from twenty fourth to February, day one of the war,

996
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: I have relentlessly argued not just the United States, the UK,

997
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 1: Norway and others should send weapons to Ukraine, but also

998
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 1: called out the reluctance of France, Germany and Italy to

999
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 1: do so. I have personally lobbied the defense ministers of

1000
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 1: NATO countries to send more weapons as the part of

1001
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 1: a war effort. I am not exactly Putin's most faithful agent.

1002
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 1: What's happened is this, I said, there is victory party,

1003
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 1: and the victory party is not realistic. Their idea is

1004
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 1: if Russia can be defeated, then Putin will fall This

1005
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 1: is also a moment when nuclear escalations becomes a feasibility.

1006
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 1: It is a fantasy to believe Russia can be squarely

1007
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 1: defeated in Kiev. They have interpreted this stance as meaning

1008
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 1: I am pro Russia. I think that's the perfect example

1009
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:35,400
Speaker 1: giving a realistic analysis. Edward Lukwok is an American strategist.

1010
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:36,880
Speaker 1: He's trying to think about what is best for the

1011
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 1: United States, best for peace. He's not Ukrainian, and it's

1012
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 1: not his job to faithfully tout the Ukrainian party line.

1013
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 1: Same when we think about John Meherscheimer, and we played

1014
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 1: even the clip here. Meerscheimer is a realist. He's long

1015
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:52,880
Speaker 1: been against NATO expansion. But by the same definition of

1016
00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:58,319
Speaker 1: John Mehersheimer, John Meherscheimer as a quote Russian propagandist. Well,

1017
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 1: then George Kennan, the father of containment against the Cold War,

1018
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 1: a victory against the Soviet Union, he wrote the same

1019
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:09,399
Speaker 1: thing in the nineteen nineties in the New York Times. Well,

1020
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 1: by the way, Meerscheimer was way more correct about that

1021
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 1: last was he actually predicted very accurately this exact sequence

1022
00:52:17,280 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 1: of events. So while no, I don't co sign everything

1023
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:22,800
Speaker 1: that he says the idea that he should be blacklisted.

1024
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 1: He's a Russian eight. It is crazy. I mean, maybe

1025
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:29,239
Speaker 1: the most disturbing one is actually Senator Ran Paul United

1026
00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 1: States politicians exactly. I mean, whatever you think of any

1027
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 1: of these characters in their views on the issues, we

1028
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: have to be able to have a debate that takes

1029
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 1: into account what the enemy is thinking as well. Rand Paul.

1030
00:52:43,719 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 1: You know, maybe his greatest great crime here in their

1031
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:49,760
Speaker 1: view is that he didn't even say, don't send the weapons.

1032
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:51,800
Speaker 1: He said we should be tracking them. He said we

1033
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,799
Speaker 1: should have inspector general to keep track of where these

1034
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 1: weapons are going and law and behold just I think

1035
00:52:56,560 --> 00:52:58,799
Speaker 1: a few weeks later we covered this on the show too.

1036
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:02,879
Speaker 1: You had European law enforcement saying, we have a problem

1037
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:05,359
Speaker 1: with a lot of you know, black market weapons coming

1038
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:07,239
Speaker 1: out of Ukraine, and this is something we really need

1039
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 1: to pay attention to because this is a big problem

1040
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 1: because once those weapons are shipped into the country, we

1041
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 1: have no idea what happens next. So this was an

1042
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:21,080
Speaker 1: incredibly rationable, rational, reasonable idea that everyone acted like, oh,

1043
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:23,840
Speaker 1: this is ridiculous, and you just start like a Russian puppet,

1044
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 1: you and you know, what. Here's the other thing is

1045
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 1: even people who do I think go too far and

1046
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:34,840
Speaker 1: do you know, echo some of the Kremlin talking points

1047
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:38,800
Speaker 1: or whatever, they should be allowed to do. That you

1048
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 1: should be allowed to hear what the enemy's line is,

1049
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 1: what they're thinking. And so this is why I've always

1050
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 1: been against, you know, cracking down at all. We can't

1051
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:49,360
Speaker 1: see ourt on YouTube and we can't have any of

1052
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:53,800
Speaker 1: the sort of Kremlin state TV or state media available

1053
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 1: in the West because it really does hinder our ability

1054
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:59,959
Speaker 1: to understand how they are approaching this and what they're

1055
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 1: thinking and what they're selling to their population. Absolutely, I

1056
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,799
Speaker 1: completely agree with that, And you know, call me whatever

1057
00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 1: you want for saying this, but you know, Rand Paul

1058
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:09,919
Speaker 1: is a sitting United States member senator, an elected member

1059
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 1: of the United States government. And last time I checked,

1060
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:16,000
Speaker 1: we shipped you and forty billion dollars of weapons guaranteed

1061
00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:18,840
Speaker 1: your security to quote unquote fight for freedom. So how

1062
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 1: about you keep your mouth shut about our politicians given

1063
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 1: the fact that we are literally guaranteeing the existence of

1064
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 1: your country. Right. And another one who's on the list,

1065
00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:31,840
Speaker 1: Lula da Silva, who is very likely to I mean,

1066
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:33,840
Speaker 1: he's the former president of Brazil is very likely to

1067
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 1: be the next president of Brazil, leading significantly in the

1068
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:39,080
Speaker 1: polls last I saw that I followed Brazilian politics like

1069
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 1: extraordinarily closely, but this is this isn't Marine La penn

1070
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 1: Is on there again. I don't care what you think

1071
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:48,960
Speaker 1: about these people, and this is a broader trend in

1072
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 1: Ukraine that is very uncomfortable, I think for people to

1073
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:54,879
Speaker 1: talk about because they just want to, you know, put

1074
00:54:54,960 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 1: up the Ukrainian flag and be support and support of

1075
00:54:57,000 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 1: the Ukrainian people. I totally get it. I share the

1076
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 1: same sentiment. We also have to be honest about the

1077
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 1: fact that this is a state that has suffered from

1078
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 1: a lot of corruption. Is that before the war and

1079
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 1: since the war has started, has cracked down on a

1080
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 1: lot of descent, banning polic opposition political parties, banning descent

1081
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 1: in terms of what their population can consume, and then

1082
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:21,200
Speaker 1: coming out with you know, blacklists like this, which I

1083
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:23,200
Speaker 1: do want to be clear, it's not it is not

1084
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 1: at all spelled out what this list means, how they're

1085
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:30,080
Speaker 1: going to use it. It is sort of like the

1086
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 1: you know, disinformation board that they floated here, where it's

1087
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 1: very vague with the actual purpose of the list. Here's

1088
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 1: my question, what if rand Paul wants to go on

1089
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:39,239
Speaker 1: a congressional delegation to Ukraine, are they going to ban

1090
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:41,120
Speaker 1: him from doing so? Also, Glenn, you know Glenn is

1091
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 1: a journalist, Why shouldn't he be He should absolutely be

1092
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 1: allowed to go into Ukraine and to maybe report on

1093
00:55:46,320 --> 00:55:48,680
Speaker 1: how some of these weapons are doing. Save this for last.

1094
00:55:48,760 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 1: I love Glenn's response. Here's what he says. Fitting back.

1095
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 1: More proponents in the West and other functionaries of the

1096
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:56,760
Speaker 1: Western security state have used the same tact for decades

1097
00:55:57,000 --> 00:55:59,600
Speaker 1: to demonize anyone questioning the foreign policy of the US,

1098
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:01,919
Speaker 1: and native chief among them, going back to the start

1099
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:04,320
Speaker 1: of the Cold War, is accusing any dissionent of spreading

1100
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 1: Russian propaganda or otherwise serving the Kremlin. That's all this

1101
00:56:07,840 --> 00:56:10,759
Speaker 1: is the Ukrainians is just standard with mccarthurg idiocy. The

1102
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:13,800
Speaker 1: Ukrainians have the absolute right to pursue whatever war policies

1103
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:16,120
Speaker 1: they want, but then they start demanding that my country

1104
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 1: and my government use its resources to fuel their effort.

1105
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 1: Then I, along with all other Americans, have the absolute

1106
00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 1: right to question that policy or to point out its

1107
00:56:24,680 --> 00:56:27,720
Speaker 1: dangers and risks. I don't care at all about Ukraine's

1108
00:56:27,719 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 1: attempts to shut down debate in our country by smearing

1109
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:33,320
Speaker 1: journalists and politicians who are questioning US and NATO policy

1110
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 1: as being Russian propagandists. That tactic is as inconsequential as

1111
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:41,400
Speaker 1: it is cheap, tawdry, and discredited. I completely agree with

1112
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:44,359
Speaker 1: that sentiment. In our country, we have a robust debate

1113
00:56:44,440 --> 00:56:46,919
Speaker 1: about who we support and who we don't. The whole

1114
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 1: reason supposedly, by the way, for supporting this sometimes here too. Okay, fine,

1115
00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 1: but you know, at least we should try and aspire

1116
00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:56,000
Speaker 1: to that. But the whole reason that we supposedly support

1117
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,880
Speaker 1: these people is the cause of freedom, etc. Well, you know,

1118
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:00,840
Speaker 1: if you're going to be behaving just like the Russians,

1119
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:03,400
Speaker 1: who also, by the way, probably have many of the

1120
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:06,400
Speaker 1: people who accused Glenn of being a Russian propagandist on

1121
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:10,319
Speaker 1: their blacklist, then what is the point of this entire thing?

1122
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:12,840
Speaker 1: I exposes a hell of a lot of hypocrisy and

1123
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 1: people who really believe into the supposed free Ukraine Western Ukraine.

1124
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 1: That's the whole reason for all this member UH, potential

1125
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 1: NATO member, an EU person is issuing blacklists against US.

1126
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:30,720
Speaker 1: Politicians and US journalists. That's not how they're supposed to behave.

1127
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 1: Nobody will say it, though, because they themselves will also

1128
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 1: be accused of a Russian propagandist Ukraine. Please don't put

1129
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 1: me on the list. I still do want to visit

1130
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:41,000
Speaker 1: your beauty. Joining us now is a great guest, Jonathan Swan.

1131
00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 1: He's a reporter over at Axios. He has a fascinating

1132
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 1: news story on the plans for a second Trump administration

1133
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:48,400
Speaker 1: if one term materialized. Let's go ahead and put this

1134
00:57:48,560 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. It go ahead and details

1135
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 1: the radical plan for Trump's second term that focuses on

1136
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:57,800
Speaker 1: something called schedule F. So, Jonathan, this is one of

1137
00:57:57,840 --> 00:57:59,840
Speaker 1: those things we focus a hell of a lot here

1138
00:57:59,880 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 1: on this show and try to emphasize to people that

1139
00:58:02,520 --> 00:58:05,960
Speaker 1: personnel is policy, something that not many can understand. So

1140
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 1: this is an entirely personnel plan that details an executive

1141
00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 1: order and more that you've spent a long time reporting out.

1142
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:13,680
Speaker 1: Why do you go ahead and lay this out for

1143
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:19,240
Speaker 1: the audience? Well, prisident Trump's former prisonent. Trump's biggest regret

1144
00:58:19,720 --> 00:58:25,720
Speaker 1: from his first term is personnel. And it's not even close.

1145
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 1: I mean, of all the things that he wishes he

1146
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:31,160
Speaker 1: could have done differently. It's the people he hired, and

1147
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:36,200
Speaker 1: every time he sees one of his former cabinet secretaries

1148
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 1: come out with a new book or go on television

1149
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:44,560
Speaker 1: and criticize him, it reignites his animus towards them. And

1150
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:48,080
Speaker 1: how the f did we pick these people? Who? You know?

1151
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 1: Blah blah blah. It's sort of well worn rant. Fine, Okay,

1152
00:58:53,600 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 1: that great, He was ranting about that for a long time.

1153
00:58:56,720 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 1: The question I embarked upon actually really started thinking about

1154
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:04,800
Speaker 1: this a year ago, but the reporting got a lot

1155
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 1: much more intense in the last six months. Was fine,

1156
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 1: you can whine about this, but is anyone serious actually

1157
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:15,200
Speaker 1: doing anything about it? Because if they're not, then who cares.

1158
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 1: I'm not writing a story about Trump. You whining about

1159
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:21,960
Speaker 1: people being disloyal. And what I discovered, and it took

1160
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:23,560
Speaker 1: me a while to kind of piece all the bits

1161
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:27,120
Speaker 1: of it together, is there are actually serious people working

1162
00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 1: on this problem who have Trump's blessing. In some cases,

1163
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:35,680
Speaker 1: they have Trump's funding, and they're sorry, let me just

1164
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 1: put this on more stable footing. Yeah, so there are

1165
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:43,840
Speaker 1: actually serious people working on this problem, and they're well funded,

1166
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 1: and their experience. Some of them are quite adept at

1167
00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 1: using government power. And there are sort of a network

1168
00:59:49,920 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 1: of groups out there. The Conservative Partnership Institute, which has

1169
00:59:54,280 --> 00:59:57,000
Speaker 1: got people like Ed Corrigan who worked on Trump's transition,

1170
00:59:57,200 --> 01:00:01,080
Speaker 1: Mark Meadows, his former chief of staff. There's Russ Votes group.

1171
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:07,320
Speaker 1: Russ was Trump's director of Officer Management and Budget. And yeah,

1172
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:10,400
Speaker 1: there's this group America First Policy Institute, run by President

1173
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 1: Trump's former domestic policy director. Each group is fits into

1174
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:18,760
Speaker 1: this ecosystem in a different way. And then there are

1175
01:00:18,800 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 1: some interesting groups that aren't affiliated with Trump, but I

1176
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:29,040
Speaker 1: would say affiliated with the America First Movement. They're ideologically simpatico.

1177
01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 1: And one of them is a group that I featured

1178
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:33,120
Speaker 1: is a younger group, which actually you're on the board of.

1179
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 1: So I would just American Moment, which I think what

1180
01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 1: they're doing is really interesting. They're younger guys. Saab Shama

1181
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 1: twenty four year old guy from Texas, very smart guy

1182
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:47,960
Speaker 1: and has very good connections in I would just say

1183
01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:51,840
Speaker 1: the younger America First Movement, and they're developing a pipeline

1184
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 1: of talent at that more mid level junior job. So

1185
01:00:55,920 --> 01:00:57,520
Speaker 1: you can sort of see it what the piece lays

1186
01:00:57,520 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 1: out is how it all comes together. And at the

1187
01:01:00,160 --> 01:01:03,439
Speaker 1: enter of all of it is this legal instrument which

1188
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:07,040
Speaker 1: most of your viewers probably weren't aware of. It's called

1189
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:10,600
Speaker 1: Schedule F. Basically, every time a new president comes in,

1190
01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 1: they can replace about four thousand so called political appointees. Right.

1191
01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:17,640
Speaker 1: It's this rotating layer of personnel at the top level

1192
01:01:17,680 --> 01:01:21,560
Speaker 1: of the government, but below that sits this mass of people,

1193
01:01:22,160 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 1: around two million federal employees, and they're effectively insulated from

1194
01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:31,200
Speaker 1: being replaced or fired. It's it's extremely difficult to fire,

1195
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:35,080
Speaker 1: and they have really strong civil service protections that are

1196
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:39,120
Speaker 1: enshrined in law. And to grossly simplify it, what this

1197
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:43,960
Speaker 1: executive order does is it allows a Cabinet secretary on

1198
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:48,960
Speaker 1: behalf of the president to reassign potentially tens of thousands

1199
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:54,120
Speaker 1: of civil servants into a new employment category called Schedule F,

1200
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:57,880
Speaker 1: which removes all of their employment protections or it certainly

1201
01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:00,760
Speaker 1: almost all of them, and allows the president or the

1202
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:04,400
Speaker 1: capa secreture very quickly replace them. So what it does

1203
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:08,439
Speaker 1: is it stipulates that any federal government employee who's working

1204
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 1: on policy, who's influencing policies, that doesn't apply to someone

1205
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:14,720
Speaker 1: who's answering the phones in a field office. But people

1206
01:02:14,760 --> 01:02:20,000
Speaker 1: who are at that top layer influencing policy, they become replaceable.

1207
01:02:20,520 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 1: And so what is happening now on the outside of

1208
01:02:23,120 --> 01:02:27,480
Speaker 1: people affiliated with Trump is they're building an alternative labor

1209
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 1: source to meet that scale, which would be unprecedented scale.

1210
01:02:32,480 --> 01:02:34,000
Speaker 1: They don't think, to be clear, they don't think they're

1211
01:02:34,040 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 1: going to need to fire fifty thousand people, but they

1212
01:02:36,680 --> 01:02:40,240
Speaker 1: might need to fire an additional six or seven thousand people.

1213
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 1: And so therefore you need a talent pool of not

1214
01:02:43,440 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 1: just four thousand, but probably ten thousand, eleven thy, twelve thousand.

1215
01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:50,000
Speaker 1: That's a lot of people. That's a very ambitious undertaking,

1216
01:02:50,120 --> 01:02:52,680
Speaker 1: and that's what's going on right now. So I think

1217
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:55,600
Speaker 1: there are a couple of things to point out here.

1218
01:02:55,880 --> 01:02:58,200
Speaker 1: First of all, part of what you're describing sounds a

1219
01:02:58,280 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 1: lot like what normal political operations do all the time

1220
01:03:01,320 --> 01:03:03,560
Speaker 1: you think about, you know, the Clinton campaign, they had

1221
01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:06,280
Speaker 1: their sort of like administration in waiting, primarily at the

1222
01:03:06,280 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 1: Center for American Progress. The Biden team they had West

1223
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:13,200
Speaker 1: exec Advisors, which was essentially their like foreign policy team

1224
01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:15,919
Speaker 1: in waiting or their cabinet in waiting that they're able

1225
01:03:16,000 --> 01:03:19,240
Speaker 1: then to pluck directly from to staff up their administration.

1226
01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:22,400
Speaker 1: The piece that is different is the schedule F piece,

1227
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 1: which allows them to get rid of a much larger

1228
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:29,560
Speaker 1: number of individuals and sort of put in place their

1229
01:03:30,000 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 1: true believers and the ideologues who are committed to their cause.

1230
01:03:33,160 --> 01:03:35,240
Speaker 1: I guess my big question reading this is whether you

1231
01:03:35,400 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 1: actually think that a Trump administration could pull this off,

1232
01:03:38,680 --> 01:03:41,640
Speaker 1: because they're certainly the last time around, they were not

1233
01:03:41,800 --> 01:03:45,840
Speaker 1: known for their discipline, or their combatants, or their ability

1234
01:03:45,920 --> 01:03:48,280
Speaker 1: to follow through with the plan. I'm just thinking about, like,

1235
01:03:48,440 --> 01:03:49,920
Speaker 1: you know, how many times did they th oh, this

1236
01:03:50,040 --> 01:03:52,080
Speaker 1: is going to be infrastructure week and it never actually

1237
01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:55,160
Speaker 1: ended up being infrastructure week. So when you talk about

1238
01:03:55,240 --> 01:03:59,040
Speaker 1: something of the level of scale and complexity that you're

1239
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:02,080
Speaker 1: laying out in this, do you actually think that a

1240
01:04:02,160 --> 01:04:04,440
Speaker 1: second Trump administration is going to have the kind of

1241
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:08,200
Speaker 1: discipline that it takes to carry something like this out. Well,

1242
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 1: I'm skeptical, and that's why I have throughout the piece

1243
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 1: it's laced pretty heavily with skepticism. It's a huge undertaking,

1244
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:18,920
Speaker 1: and as I said, developing that labor source it is,

1245
01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 1: it would be of unprecedented scale. But there's a few

1246
01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:25,760
Speaker 1: things that I would just put in the column of

1247
01:04:26,200 --> 01:04:30,240
Speaker 1: it's possible and shouldn't be dismissed. The first is, I'm

1248
01:04:30,280 --> 01:04:33,200
Speaker 1: not suggesting in this article that Donald Trump himself has changed,

1249
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 1: that he is now some disciplined, you know, monastic figure

1250
01:04:39,800 --> 01:04:43,360
Speaker 1: who's transformed himself in exile and is sort of reading

1251
01:04:43,440 --> 01:04:46,040
Speaker 1: Marcus Aurelius and is ready to you know, come onto

1252
01:04:46,120 --> 01:04:49,800
Speaker 1: the scene as a completely No, that's absurd, obviously, that's absurd.

1253
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:53,240
Speaker 1: What's changed is the people working on this and the

1254
01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:56,600
Speaker 1: people around him, and he has a very hardened mentality

1255
01:04:56,760 --> 01:05:00,120
Speaker 1: against having any of these sort of people who I

1256
01:05:00,160 --> 01:05:03,320
Speaker 1: would just call them the sort of restrainers, the people

1257
01:05:03,320 --> 01:05:05,880
Speaker 1: who wanted to restrain him from what they saw as

1258
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:09,880
Speaker 1: his most extreme impulses. And there are some people working

1259
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 1: on it that I would say have a track record

1260
01:05:12,800 --> 01:05:15,840
Speaker 1: of implementation inside government. Russ vote is a very good

1261
01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:18,720
Speaker 1: example of that. The other thing I would just say

1262
01:05:18,760 --> 01:05:22,880
Speaker 1: to you is this is not some fantastical document. This

1263
01:05:23,000 --> 01:05:26,600
Speaker 1: is an executive order that went through legal vetting and

1264
01:05:26,760 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 1: it was issued, It was signed into law at the

1265
01:05:29,560 --> 01:05:33,680
Speaker 1: end of twenty twenty, and Democrats are alarmed enough about

1266
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:38,840
Speaker 1: its resurrection that Representative Jerry Connolly from Virginia, who chairs

1267
01:05:38,880 --> 01:05:41,960
Speaker 1: the subcommittee that oversees the federal Civil Service. He's attached

1268
01:05:41,960 --> 01:05:44,560
Speaker 1: an amendment to the Annual Defense Bill this year to

1269
01:05:44,680 --> 01:05:47,560
Speaker 1: try to prevent a future president from reviving Schedule F.

1270
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:50,320
Speaker 1: It passed the House, Republican's probably going to try and

1271
01:05:50,760 --> 01:05:52,480
Speaker 1: know they're going to try and block it in the Senate,

1272
01:05:52,720 --> 01:05:56,160
Speaker 1: so Democrats are very worried about it. The other thing

1273
01:05:56,240 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 1: I would just say is it actually doesn't require a

1274
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:02,880
Speaker 1: of You don't need to be Oliver Wendel Holmes to

1275
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:05,320
Speaker 1: fire a whole bunch of people. You can do that

1276
01:06:05,480 --> 01:06:08,600
Speaker 1: pretty fricking easily. And actually, if you look at a

1277
01:06:08,720 --> 01:06:10,080
Speaker 1: big part of what they want to do, which is

1278
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:13,640
Speaker 1: fire people in the intelligence community, they actually you don't

1279
01:06:13,680 --> 01:06:15,320
Speaker 1: even need Schedule AFT for that. A lot of those

1280
01:06:15,320 --> 01:06:19,520
Speaker 1: people are not protected by these civil service protections. So

1281
01:06:20,680 --> 01:06:23,880
Speaker 1: you might say, well, can they pull this off? Well,

1282
01:06:24,760 --> 01:06:29,120
Speaker 1: sending a letter and firing someone is actually not that difficult,

1283
01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:33,080
Speaker 1: and so you don't need, you know, the great geniuses

1284
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:35,320
Speaker 1: of the world to come together to pull this off.

1285
01:06:35,600 --> 01:06:37,920
Speaker 1: What would be interesting to know is who's going to

1286
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:40,160
Speaker 1: replace these people? Are you going to have that labor source.

1287
01:06:40,240 --> 01:06:44,160
Speaker 1: That's the part that I remain skeptical about. But implementing

1288
01:06:44,280 --> 01:06:47,920
Speaker 1: a purge is not actually that difficult necessarily if they

1289
01:06:48,000 --> 01:06:52,760
Speaker 1: have this legal instrument combined with the will to do it. Absolutely,

1290
01:06:52,800 --> 01:06:54,640
Speaker 1: And I think one thing I also want to focus

1291
01:06:54,680 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 1: on is what are these people believe? Because the real

1292
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:00,520
Speaker 1: you know, you can fire people, you can point them.

1293
01:07:00,600 --> 01:07:02,480
Speaker 1: But I think one of the things that stung Trump

1294
01:07:03,160 --> 01:07:05,200
Speaker 1: was that many of the people who he would hire,

1295
01:07:05,240 --> 01:07:07,320
Speaker 1: and even many of these groups, they don't even necessarily

1296
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:11,280
Speaker 1: ideologically agree with each other on anything. So when Trump

1297
01:07:11,360 --> 01:07:14,080
Speaker 1: has a criterion for who he wants to elevate and

1298
01:07:14,200 --> 01:07:17,720
Speaker 1: put into a personnel office, does he have any policy

1299
01:07:17,880 --> 01:07:20,840
Speaker 1: behind that or is it simply he's never criticized me

1300
01:07:20,960 --> 01:07:24,400
Speaker 1: on TV and he believes or at least mouths the

1301
01:07:24,680 --> 01:07:27,360
Speaker 1: language of stop the steal. I mean, beyond that, does

1302
01:07:27,440 --> 01:07:29,960
Speaker 1: it matter to be able to end up in one

1303
01:07:29,960 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 1: of these jobs? That's what I'm most curious about this. Well,

1304
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:34,920
Speaker 1: this is where you distinguish between Trump himself and the

1305
01:07:34,960 --> 01:07:38,600
Speaker 1: pivolier points. And so what's interesting is so the answer

1306
01:07:38,640 --> 01:07:40,680
Speaker 1: for Trump is no, he doesn't really care that much

1307
01:07:40,680 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 1: about prolacy. It stopped the steal and loyalty to him absolutely,

1308
01:07:44,280 --> 01:07:45,920
Speaker 1: Like he said this to million times people, I want

1309
01:07:45,960 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 1: people who are loyal and you can get very closely.

1310
01:07:48,680 --> 01:07:50,560
Speaker 1: You give it quickly into his inner circle by just

1311
01:07:50,600 --> 01:07:54,160
Speaker 1: sucking up to him. Of course, we know that. What's interesting, though,

1312
01:07:54,280 --> 01:07:56,760
Speaker 1: is the person that I expect him to appoint to

1313
01:07:56,880 --> 01:07:59,800
Speaker 1: run his transition, which is John mcinte, who ran his

1314
01:08:00,000 --> 01:08:03,360
Speaker 1: personnel office. John mcintee is an ideal logue actually, and

1315
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:07,080
Speaker 1: he does believe in these policies. He is very very

1316
01:08:07,360 --> 01:08:11,520
Speaker 1: anti interventionist on foreign policy, and he is hardcore and immigration.

1317
01:08:11,920 --> 01:08:15,600
Speaker 1: And so by dint of appointing John mcintee and people

1318
01:08:15,720 --> 01:08:19,920
Speaker 1: like him, russ vote is authentically is sort of comes

1319
01:08:19,960 --> 01:08:22,600
Speaker 1: out of the Ross Perot type of Republican. So some

1320
01:08:22,680 --> 01:08:25,640
Speaker 1: of the key people that will be I expect, I

1321
01:08:25,760 --> 01:08:28,840
Speaker 1: expect things could change, and you know, nothing certain in troupworld,

1322
01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:30,479
Speaker 1: but some of the key people that I expect to

1323
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:35,640
Speaker 1: be running this actually are America first IDEO logues, and

1324
01:08:35,760 --> 01:08:38,360
Speaker 1: so that's why I do believe there will be a

1325
01:08:38,439 --> 01:08:46,320
Speaker 1: pretty strong ideological criteria applied to these selections. And by

1326
01:08:46,360 --> 01:08:49,720
Speaker 1: the way, a lot of the groups that are developing this,

1327
01:08:49,920 --> 01:08:53,080
Speaker 1: You're absolutely right like, I don't know. I wouldn't describe

1328
01:08:53,080 --> 01:08:55,800
Speaker 1: the America First Policy Institute. I wouldn't describe their foreign

1329
01:08:55,840 --> 01:08:59,040
Speaker 1: policy proposals. You know, what they put out on Ukraine

1330
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:01,280
Speaker 1: could have been written by John Bolton. So I'm not

1331
01:09:01,400 --> 01:09:05,719
Speaker 1: suggesting that there's ideological uniformity across these groups. There absolutely isn't.

1332
01:09:06,000 --> 01:09:08,519
Speaker 1: But I do believe that if he has people like

1333
01:09:08,640 --> 01:09:11,800
Speaker 1: mc and Tee running it, they will be discerning that

1334
01:09:12,320 --> 01:09:14,639
Speaker 1: they're deep enough in this that they can discern between

1335
01:09:14,720 --> 01:09:17,320
Speaker 1: these groups and see the types of people that they

1336
01:09:17,400 --> 01:09:19,639
Speaker 1: want to have in key roles. Can that be done

1337
01:09:19,680 --> 01:09:24,240
Speaker 1: at scale? I'm very skeptical. Yeah, that's the excellent, excellent

1338
01:09:24,400 --> 01:09:28,640
Speaker 1: cap Yeah. Absolutely. And then lastly, you mentioned that Democrats,

1339
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:32,719
Speaker 1: including Carsman Jerry Connolly from Virginia, are trying to block

1340
01:09:33,120 --> 01:09:37,240
Speaker 1: their ability to reimpose this Schedule F executive order. What

1341
01:09:37,320 --> 01:09:40,320
Speaker 1: do you think the fate of that is. I think

1342
01:09:40,400 --> 01:09:42,720
Speaker 1: it's unlikely, because I do think it's going to be

1343
01:09:42,840 --> 01:09:46,120
Speaker 1: very hard to get that through the Senate, and if

1344
01:09:46,160 --> 01:09:49,000
Speaker 1: they don't manage to block it, they'll certainly challenge it.

1345
01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:51,880
Speaker 1: They'll they'll be huge legal challenges against it. But Trump's

1346
01:09:51,880 --> 01:09:55,680
Speaker 1: advisors like their chances in a court system that's now

1347
01:09:55,760 --> 01:09:59,720
Speaker 1: dominated by conservatives at the highest level. If they do

1348
01:09:59,800 --> 01:10:02,519
Speaker 1: get Schedule F into sorry, if they do get this

1349
01:10:02,600 --> 01:10:05,360
Speaker 1: amendment into an interforce to prevent a future president from

1350
01:10:05,400 --> 01:10:09,120
Speaker 1: introducing SCHEDULEF, Trump could still execute, as far as I

1351
01:10:09,360 --> 01:10:11,559
Speaker 1: have been talking to experts on this, a pretty large

1352
01:10:11,600 --> 01:10:15,040
Speaker 1: scale purge of the intelligence community even without Schedule F.

1353
01:10:15,640 --> 01:10:17,519
Speaker 1: Oh that's a great point, right, because I believe they're

1354
01:10:17,520 --> 01:10:20,280
Speaker 1: governed are they're a different authority. Jobren. This is fascinating,

1355
01:10:20,400 --> 01:10:23,680
Speaker 1: absolutely fascinating reporting. It's long, but I encourage everybody to

1356
01:10:23,720 --> 01:10:26,080
Speaker 1: go and read. It just influences everything that we talk

1357
01:10:26,120 --> 01:10:27,880
Speaker 1: about here all the time. So we're going to put

1358
01:10:27,920 --> 01:10:30,080
Speaker 1: link down there in the description. And we really appreciate

1359
01:10:30,080 --> 01:10:31,479
Speaker 1: you making the time for us this morning. Thank you.

1360
01:10:32,000 --> 01:10:34,160
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me, guys. And it's a two part series,

1361
01:10:34,280 --> 01:10:37,120
Speaker 1: so there's it really goes deep in the second part

1362
01:10:37,200 --> 01:10:40,479
Speaker 1: on Schedule F. So perfects for having me. Absolutely our pleasure.

1363
01:10:43,400 --> 01:10:45,800
Speaker 1: All right. Literally, while we're filming the show, we get

1364
01:10:45,880 --> 01:10:48,920
Speaker 1: the official live numbers of the US economy. As the

1365
01:10:49,120 --> 01:10:52,680
Speaker 1: recession definition game had been playing out, the Biden administration's

1366
01:10:52,760 --> 01:10:55,680
Speaker 1: fears have come true. So the US economy shrinks for

1367
01:10:55,720 --> 01:10:58,360
Speaker 1: the second straight quarter, as the press is saying it

1368
01:10:58,479 --> 01:11:02,000
Speaker 1: quote igniting recession fear. In other words, it is technically

1369
01:11:02,120 --> 01:11:05,360
Speaker 1: a recession. Now, all of these definitions just are so

1370
01:11:05,680 --> 01:11:07,479
Speaker 1: annoying to me. And I was talking about U yesterday.

1371
01:11:07,920 --> 01:11:10,639
Speaker 1: Nobody cares whether you're technically in a recession or you're

1372
01:11:10,680 --> 01:11:13,479
Speaker 1: technically in a boom. They care can you afford something?

1373
01:11:13,680 --> 01:11:16,320
Speaker 1: And are you employed? So to that extent, no, the

1374
01:11:16,400 --> 01:11:18,880
Speaker 1: definition doesn't matter, but to the extent that politically, the

1375
01:11:18,920 --> 01:11:20,920
Speaker 1: White House is gas lighting all of us by saying, no,

1376
01:11:21,000 --> 01:11:23,519
Speaker 1: we're not technically in recession. Actually we're in the strongest

1377
01:11:23,720 --> 01:11:27,040
Speaker 1: job economy since World War two. Stop stop like that

1378
01:11:27,200 --> 01:11:30,280
Speaker 1: is just not comporting with the facts whatsoever. The current

1379
01:11:30,360 --> 01:11:33,639
Speaker 1: facts are that the US economy contracted for the second

1380
01:11:33,720 --> 01:11:38,000
Speaker 1: straight quarter, growth falling by one percent approximately so point

1381
01:11:38,080 --> 01:11:42,240
Speaker 1: nine percent annual rate in April to June period. That

1382
01:11:42,439 --> 01:11:46,760
Speaker 1: matters because GDP also fell for one point six annualized

1383
01:11:46,840 --> 01:11:49,600
Speaker 1: rate in the first three months of the year, So

1384
01:11:49,720 --> 01:11:56,639
Speaker 1: you have two straight quarters of technical again, technical shrinking GDP. Now,

1385
01:11:57,080 --> 01:12:01,439
Speaker 1: the pushback is that we have a low unemployment rate. Now,

1386
01:12:01,680 --> 01:12:05,400
Speaker 1: it does seem while yes, inflation is high, that consumer

1387
01:12:05,479 --> 01:12:08,479
Speaker 1: spending does not to be in a be in typical

1388
01:12:08,760 --> 01:12:11,920
Speaker 1: recession territory. But that's the whole point as to this

1389
01:12:12,360 --> 01:12:14,880
Speaker 1: economic moment, and the economy that we're living in is

1390
01:12:15,080 --> 01:12:18,320
Speaker 1: very wonky. Arguing whether we're technically in a recession or

1391
01:12:18,360 --> 01:12:21,880
Speaker 1: not really honestly doesn't matter. At last time I checked,

1392
01:12:22,040 --> 01:12:25,160
Speaker 1: inflation is sky high on food and on gas. You know,

1393
01:12:25,240 --> 01:12:28,360
Speaker 1: the Bide administration is celebrating the gas is only four

1394
01:12:28,400 --> 01:12:31,400
Speaker 1: dollars and thirty cents a gallon nationally. The economy is

1395
01:12:31,400 --> 01:12:33,120
Speaker 1: not good. I just don't know why that we can't

1396
01:12:33,200 --> 01:12:35,599
Speaker 1: just lead with that and that be the demarcation point.

1397
01:12:35,640 --> 01:12:39,960
Speaker 1: But unfortunately the White House has chosen to majorly politicize

1398
01:12:40,000 --> 01:12:43,280
Speaker 1: the quote definition of recession when it does them no good.

1399
01:12:43,439 --> 01:12:45,240
Speaker 1: I see no point why they would pick this fight.

1400
01:12:45,520 --> 01:12:47,360
Speaker 1: So guess that's the part for me is it's just

1401
01:12:47,439 --> 01:12:49,479
Speaker 1: sort of silly. It's like, this is not helping you

1402
01:12:49,760 --> 01:12:52,240
Speaker 1: politically to deny the reality that people are living and

1403
01:12:52,320 --> 01:12:54,160
Speaker 1: feeling every day, and it's you know, filled with a

1404
01:12:54,200 --> 01:12:59,320
Speaker 1: sort of condescension towards the American people who know exactly

1405
01:12:59,400 --> 01:13:02,240
Speaker 1: what is going on in their own lives in real time.

1406
01:13:02,400 --> 01:13:05,560
Speaker 1: Even before you had these new numbers indicating that you

1407
01:13:05,680 --> 01:13:08,880
Speaker 1: had two straight quarters of negative GDP growth, You had

1408
01:13:08,920 --> 01:13:10,800
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of Americans saying they thought we were

1409
01:13:10,800 --> 01:13:14,120
Speaker 1: already in a recession. So people have been there, whether

1410
01:13:14,240 --> 01:13:17,200
Speaker 1: you're you know, parsing the words of the technical definition

1411
01:13:17,560 --> 01:13:20,720
Speaker 1: or not. Ultimately, and also yesterday we did have the

1412
01:13:20,760 --> 01:13:23,320
Speaker 1: FED move on It was what we expected, seventy five

1413
01:13:23,360 --> 01:13:26,920
Speaker 1: basis points, which I think in some ways people are like, oh,

1414
01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:29,479
Speaker 1: that's no big deal, because they had floated possibly one

1415
01:13:29,560 --> 01:13:32,599
Speaker 1: hundred basis points. I'd be a full percentage point interest

1416
01:13:32,680 --> 01:13:36,519
Speaker 1: rate hike, but we had not until last month, we

1417
01:13:36,640 --> 01:13:39,760
Speaker 1: had not had the FED hike interst rates by that

1418
01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:44,280
Speaker 1: high of a number since nineteen ninety four. So to

1419
01:13:44,400 --> 01:13:48,040
Speaker 1: do it two months straight in a row is really

1420
01:13:48,200 --> 01:13:52,120
Speaker 1: quite exceptional. And I continue to see news coming out

1421
01:13:52,200 --> 01:13:54,880
Speaker 1: of the housing market, in particular about just what a

1422
01:13:54,960 --> 01:13:58,200
Speaker 1: dire impact that is having on you know, new housing starts, which,

1423
01:13:58,200 --> 01:14:00,880
Speaker 1: by the way, need housing to be well. That's the

1424
01:14:00,920 --> 01:14:04,120
Speaker 1: other piece of this that is really important to remember

1425
01:14:04,479 --> 01:14:07,320
Speaker 1: is that when the FED is hiking interest rates, that's

1426
01:14:07,360 --> 01:14:10,240
Speaker 1: not only hitting you directly what they call like dampening demand,

1427
01:14:10,280 --> 01:14:12,559
Speaker 1: which just basically means you don't have money to spend,

1428
01:14:13,040 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 1: but it's also impacting companies' ability to invest in things

1429
01:14:17,080 --> 01:14:20,400
Speaker 1: like you know, new housing construction. So it's also hurting

1430
01:14:20,760 --> 01:14:23,080
Speaker 1: the supply side, which the exact opposite of what you

1431
01:14:23,200 --> 01:14:27,679
Speaker 1: ultimately want to do. So again, some really disturbing numbers

1432
01:14:27,800 --> 01:14:32,760
Speaker 1: on the GDP growth piece last quarter. This was attributable

1433
01:14:32,880 --> 01:14:35,879
Speaker 1: a lot to the fact that companies have been struggling

1434
01:14:35,960 --> 01:14:38,840
Speaker 1: with what their inventory levels should be. You know, they

1435
01:14:38,920 --> 01:14:42,720
Speaker 1: got caught with you know, they're just in time practices

1436
01:14:42,920 --> 01:14:46,280
Speaker 1: not having enough, and they had shortages, then they stocked up,

1437
01:14:46,360 --> 01:14:49,280
Speaker 1: then they had too much, and they had surpluses, and

1438
01:14:49,800 --> 01:14:52,400
Speaker 1: so they've been having trouble sort of figuring out the

1439
01:14:52,479 --> 01:14:55,640
Speaker 1: proper inventory levels, and since they've been selling off inventory

1440
01:14:55,760 --> 01:14:58,800
Speaker 1: rather than acquiring more, that's a hit on GDP growth.

1441
01:14:58,840 --> 01:15:00,599
Speaker 1: That was a lot of the story of last quarter.

1442
01:15:00,920 --> 01:15:03,160
Speaker 1: And right now, personal consumption, as I talked about it

1443
01:15:03,280 --> 01:15:06,400
Speaker 1: did grow by one percent, but it actually has decelerated

1444
01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:09,000
Speaker 1: significantly by a full percentage point from one point eight

1445
01:15:09,040 --> 01:15:12,439
Speaker 1: percent in Q one, So that actually is less than

1446
01:15:12,479 --> 01:15:15,320
Speaker 1: what was expected for the personal consumption rate, which does

1447
01:15:15,400 --> 01:15:17,920
Speaker 1: mean that we are seeing a deceleration although it is

1448
01:15:18,000 --> 01:15:20,360
Speaker 1: still growing. That's kind of the full picture. I don't

1449
01:15:20,400 --> 01:15:22,880
Speaker 1: think it damn matters. But White House doing itself no

1450
01:15:23,000 --> 01:15:25,960
Speaker 1: favor by trying to redefine all of this when honestly

1451
01:15:26,040 --> 01:15:28,800
Speaker 1: they're doing some good things. So let's talk about the

1452
01:15:28,880 --> 01:15:31,360
Speaker 1: good things, and we'll start with the Chips Act. So

1453
01:15:31,439 --> 01:15:34,799
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen. Yesterday,

1454
01:15:34,960 --> 01:15:37,840
Speaker 1: the Senate passed the Chips Act, providing grants and other

1455
01:15:37,880 --> 01:15:40,960
Speaker 1: incentives to the US computer chip industry to better compete

1456
01:15:40,960 --> 01:15:43,519
Speaker 1: with China and science and technology. It is now heading

1457
01:15:43,560 --> 01:15:46,840
Speaker 1: to the House for final approval. Now, this is kind

1458
01:15:46,880 --> 01:15:50,080
Speaker 1: of a landmark piece of legislation. We're talking here about

1459
01:15:50,320 --> 01:15:54,680
Speaker 1: fifty eight billion dollars with the b being pumped directly

1460
01:15:54,840 --> 01:15:59,479
Speaker 1: into semiconductor chip manufacturing. However, it has split the US

1461
01:15:59,560 --> 01:16:02,320
Speaker 1: politics in some interesting ways. It was a sixty four

1462
01:16:02,640 --> 01:16:05,439
Speaker 1: to thirty three vote, but not all Democrats actually did

1463
01:16:05,560 --> 01:16:07,760
Speaker 1: vote for the bill. Let's put this up there. So

1464
01:16:07,880 --> 01:16:12,600
Speaker 1: the Republicans who voted for it are Roy Blunt, Richard Burr, Marcpedo,

1465
01:16:12,960 --> 01:16:18,679
Speaker 1: Cascassidy Collins, Cornyn Danes, Graham, Haggerty, McConnell, Moran Portman, Romney

1466
01:16:18,760 --> 01:16:21,760
Speaker 1: sass Tillis, Wicker, and Young. Now, in terms of the

1467
01:16:21,800 --> 01:16:24,920
Speaker 1: Democrats or Independence who voted against the bill actually Senator

1468
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:27,760
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, and then those who did not vote were

1469
01:16:27,960 --> 01:16:31,759
Speaker 1: Patrick Lay, Joe Manchin, and Lisa Murkowski. So the reasons

1470
01:16:31,800 --> 01:16:34,640
Speaker 1: behind all of this are kind of fascinating. Let's put

1471
01:16:34,680 --> 01:16:37,040
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen first, which is what

1472
01:16:37,240 --> 01:16:40,040
Speaker 1: is this thing? Well, as I said, it is fifty

1473
01:16:40,080 --> 01:16:43,920
Speaker 1: eight billion dollars which is being sent directly to semiconductor

1474
01:16:44,280 --> 01:16:48,639
Speaker 1: manufacturing specifically, but it includes hundreds of billions of dollars

1475
01:16:48,720 --> 01:16:52,240
Speaker 1: more for National Science Foundation grants which are able to

1476
01:16:52,320 --> 01:16:58,160
Speaker 1: be used specifically for investing in research behind cutting edge

1477
01:16:58,360 --> 01:17:01,000
Speaker 1: R and D as to the development of both AI,

1478
01:17:01,439 --> 01:17:06,000
Speaker 1: quantum computing, wireless communications, precision agriculture, and more. So it's

1479
01:17:06,040 --> 01:17:09,639
Speaker 1: a major grant towards funding institutions. Now, before we play

1480
01:17:10,200 --> 01:17:13,639
Speaker 1: Sanders's objection, I actually found it interesting. So I reached

1481
01:17:13,640 --> 01:17:14,920
Speaker 1: out to some of my friends who were in the

1482
01:17:15,000 --> 01:17:17,559
Speaker 1: Senate and I was like, Hey, why did Marco Rubio

1483
01:17:17,960 --> 01:17:20,320
Speaker 1: and Tom Cotton, people who were very pro Chips Act

1484
01:17:20,439 --> 01:17:23,599
Speaker 1: vote against this bill. Here's the reasoning that I got,

1485
01:17:23,720 --> 01:17:27,840
Speaker 1: which is that the current bill actually gives an incredible

1486
01:17:27,880 --> 01:17:31,120
Speaker 1: amount of discretion to the Commerce Department. And part of

1487
01:17:31,160 --> 01:17:33,519
Speaker 1: the problem is that with that fifty eight billion, you

1488
01:17:33,560 --> 01:17:35,760
Speaker 1: don't just grant it to these companies, right, it's not

1489
01:17:35,840 --> 01:17:38,879
Speaker 1: in the legislation. You give power to the Commerce Department,

1490
01:17:39,120 --> 01:17:43,679
Speaker 1: who gets to use definitions and guidance to determine who's

1491
01:17:43,720 --> 01:17:45,800
Speaker 1: going to get it or not, and not only just who,

1492
01:17:46,160 --> 01:17:48,680
Speaker 1: but what projects. And part of the fear was that

1493
01:17:48,760 --> 01:17:52,120
Speaker 1: there was not stringent enough stuff written into the bill

1494
01:17:52,439 --> 01:17:55,280
Speaker 1: that would say that Intel or whomever might say, hey,

1495
01:17:55,360 --> 01:17:58,559
Speaker 1: we need you to subsidize this while also being able

1496
01:17:58,600 --> 01:18:01,680
Speaker 1: to boost production in China. So their objection to the

1497
01:18:01,720 --> 01:18:04,240
Speaker 1: bills that there was not enough guardrails on the legislation

1498
01:18:04,560 --> 01:18:07,120
Speaker 1: to make sure that the legislation will not be gained

1499
01:18:07,320 --> 01:18:09,559
Speaker 1: by the computer chip industry in order to make sure

1500
01:18:09,560 --> 01:18:12,640
Speaker 1: that they still have production in China and not But

1501
01:18:12,800 --> 01:18:16,240
Speaker 1: let's go ahead before we get to center. Sanders objections

1502
01:18:16,360 --> 01:18:18,720
Speaker 1: because they echo that in certain ways. I mean, his

1503
01:18:19,240 --> 01:18:23,360
Speaker 1: concerns are more on the front of unionization. I mean,

1504
01:18:23,400 --> 01:18:26,400
Speaker 1: there are very few sort of requirements put on these

1505
01:18:26,439 --> 01:18:29,519
Speaker 1: companies who are going to be beneficiarias of a massive subsidy.

1506
01:18:29,960 --> 01:18:33,479
Speaker 1: So we've seen before. You know, these big corporate subsidies

1507
01:18:33,520 --> 01:18:36,040
Speaker 1: going to like Fox Con in Wisconsin, and it turns

1508
01:18:36,080 --> 01:18:38,519
Speaker 1: out to be a total boondoggle, that's a disaster for

1509
01:18:38,600 --> 01:18:42,479
Speaker 1: taxpayers and no jobs ultimately materialize. So I think there

1510
01:18:42,520 --> 01:18:47,080
Speaker 1: are legitimate concerns here about whether we could be snookered again,

1511
01:18:47,479 --> 01:18:49,680
Speaker 1: and ultimately, you know, you think you're going to get

1512
01:18:49,680 --> 01:18:53,960
Speaker 1: this chips manufacturing facility, have this good bedrock piece of

1513
01:18:54,040 --> 01:18:57,600
Speaker 1: industrial policy which is incredibly important, and then ultimately the

1514
01:18:57,640 --> 01:18:59,679
Speaker 1: whole thing falls apart and is just another big corporate

1515
01:18:59,680 --> 01:19:02,799
Speaker 1: give I do think that those fears are really justified. However,

1516
01:19:03,920 --> 01:19:05,880
Speaker 1: a little bit of context on this, which we've covered

1517
01:19:05,920 --> 01:19:08,320
Speaker 1: and you've covered in particular on this show extensively, But

1518
01:19:08,400 --> 01:19:11,160
Speaker 1: I just want to remind people of why this matters

1519
01:19:11,280 --> 01:19:14,240
Speaker 1: so much. Is because it's something like seven hundred and

1520
01:19:14,280 --> 01:19:18,040
Speaker 1: eighty six chips manufacturing facilities have gone overseas in the

1521
01:19:18,120 --> 01:19:21,679
Speaker 1: past several decades, and it has left us with almost

1522
01:19:22,040 --> 01:19:28,360
Speaker 1: no domestic manufacturing capability. This is really critical. It's critical

1523
01:19:28,479 --> 01:19:31,520
Speaker 1: for you as a consumer. This is in all your electronics,

1524
01:19:32,120 --> 01:19:34,120
Speaker 1: This is in a lot of the new cars, especially

1525
01:19:34,160 --> 01:19:38,000
Speaker 1: the new electric cars, really dependent on this technology. It's

1526
01:19:38,080 --> 01:19:40,840
Speaker 1: also really critical for defense, and this is why part

1527
01:19:40,840 --> 01:19:43,280
Speaker 1: of why Republicans are so interested in it is because

1528
01:19:43,600 --> 01:19:45,600
Speaker 1: you have to have these chips to be able to

1529
01:19:45,680 --> 01:19:49,160
Speaker 1: manufacture the advanced weaponry that we depend on. So the

1530
01:19:49,280 --> 01:19:52,719
Speaker 1: fact that this is overwhelmingly I mean, actually the advanced

1531
01:19:52,760 --> 01:19:57,360
Speaker 1: chips are overwhelmingly being manufactured in Taiwan. Correct. Not a

1532
01:19:57,400 --> 01:20:00,960
Speaker 1: good situation whatsoever, and something thateople on both sides of

1533
01:20:01,000 --> 01:20:04,519
Speaker 1: the aisle have been interested in dealing with. So the

1534
01:20:04,600 --> 01:20:08,000
Speaker 1: big question is whether this act has been crafted well

1535
01:20:08,240 --> 01:20:11,479
Speaker 1: enough to actually accomplish the goal, or whether you're going

1536
01:20:11,560 --> 01:20:14,320
Speaker 1: to end up with corporations getting paid and no jobs

1537
01:20:14,320 --> 01:20:18,920
Speaker 1: being created and no new innate domestic capacity. So that's

1538
01:20:19,080 --> 01:20:21,920
Speaker 1: kind of the backstory. Extremely well said. And as you said,

1539
01:20:21,960 --> 01:20:24,760
Speaker 1: we know we already live in a massive already we

1540
01:20:24,880 --> 01:20:27,559
Speaker 1: have huge blows to the US economy, hundreds of billions

1541
01:20:27,600 --> 01:20:29,960
Speaker 1: of dollars in lost economic growth from the ship shortage

1542
01:20:30,000 --> 01:20:32,320
Speaker 1: of the last two years alone. Let's play center standards

1543
01:20:32,320 --> 01:20:34,839
Speaker 1: of objection. I'll give you my thoughts on the other side. Mautin. President,

1544
01:20:35,120 --> 01:20:38,519
Speaker 1: I do not argue with anyone who makes the point

1545
01:20:38,560 --> 01:20:42,640
Speaker 1: that there is a global shortage in microchips and semiconductors,

1546
01:20:43,160 --> 01:20:46,360
Speaker 1: which is making it harder for manufacturers to produce the cars,

1547
01:20:46,439 --> 01:20:50,400
Speaker 1: the cell phones, the household appliances, and the electronic equipment

1548
01:20:50,560 --> 01:20:54,679
Speaker 1: that we need. This shortage is in fact questing American

1549
01:20:54,720 --> 01:20:57,840
Speaker 1: workers good paying jobs and raising prices for families. And

1550
01:20:57,920 --> 01:21:00,720
Speaker 1: that is why I personally strongly support the need to

1551
01:21:00,800 --> 01:21:05,639
Speaker 1: expand US microchip production. But the question that we should

1552
01:21:05,680 --> 01:21:10,519
Speaker 1: be asking is this, should American tax payers provide the

1553
01:21:10,640 --> 01:21:14,800
Speaker 1: microchip industry with a blank check, blank check of over

1554
01:21:14,920 --> 01:21:19,439
Speaker 1: seventy six billion dollars at the same exact time when

1555
01:21:19,640 --> 01:21:23,680
Speaker 1: semiconducted companies are making tens of billions of dollars in

1556
01:21:23,800 --> 01:21:29,040
Speaker 1: proppits and paying their CEO's exorbitant compensation packages. That really

1557
01:21:29,439 --> 01:21:31,479
Speaker 1: is one of the questions that we should be asking,

1558
01:21:31,520 --> 01:21:33,720
Speaker 1: and I think the answer to that is a resounding no.

1559
01:21:33,880 --> 01:21:38,240
Speaker 1: This is an enormously profitable industry. So here's my objection

1560
01:21:38,320 --> 01:21:40,599
Speaker 1: to what Sanders is saying. And look, I'm not saying

1561
01:21:40,640 --> 01:21:43,080
Speaker 1: I enjoy corporate welfare, but we live in a free market,

1562
01:21:43,160 --> 01:21:47,519
Speaker 1: capitalist country. You cannot force companies to manufacture here. Now.

1563
01:21:47,720 --> 01:21:50,640
Speaker 1: There are enough stringent restrictions in the bill, which is

1564
01:21:50,760 --> 01:21:53,040
Speaker 1: the most objectionable one to me would be if you

1565
01:21:53,080 --> 01:21:54,920
Speaker 1: could buy back here on stock. You cannot use any

1566
01:21:54,920 --> 01:21:57,320
Speaker 1: of this money to buy background stock. So I'm like, okay. Second,

1567
01:21:57,720 --> 01:22:02,160
Speaker 1: is it is earmarked specifically towards chip manufacturing. I also

1568
01:22:02,200 --> 01:22:03,720
Speaker 1: want to get to the point that he's making there.

1569
01:22:03,960 --> 01:22:06,880
Speaker 1: He is not wrong that they are more profitable than ever.

1570
01:22:07,080 --> 01:22:09,719
Speaker 1: Do you know why they became profitable? Because here's the issue.

1571
01:22:10,040 --> 01:22:14,439
Speaker 1: We design all of the world's best semiconductors right here

1572
01:22:14,479 --> 01:22:19,040
Speaker 1: in the United States, Intel and others. However we manufacture

1573
01:22:19,160 --> 01:22:23,400
Speaker 1: them in Taiwan and in Asia. The reason to do

1574
01:22:23,600 --> 01:22:27,400
Speaker 1: so is because that was the way that chip manufacturers

1575
01:22:27,479 --> 01:22:31,360
Speaker 1: were able to boost profits. So in order to actually

1576
01:22:31,640 --> 01:22:35,640
Speaker 1: reduce profitability or at least incentivize them to go in

1577
01:22:35,720 --> 01:22:38,720
Speaker 1: the right direction, we are directly using this act to

1578
01:22:39,080 --> 01:22:43,639
Speaker 1: subsidize production. And the production is what matters more than anything,

1579
01:22:44,160 --> 01:22:46,639
Speaker 1: both from a geostrategic point of view. I mean, look,

1580
01:22:46,800 --> 01:22:48,840
Speaker 1: this is part of the reason why if China invaded Taiwan,

1581
01:22:48,960 --> 01:22:50,960
Speaker 1: the US economy, I'm not kidding, would shut down within

1582
01:22:50,960 --> 01:22:54,760
Speaker 1: in like six months, like the US consumer electronic gone,

1583
01:22:54,840 --> 01:22:58,040
Speaker 1: I mean, no more phone, no more televisions, like everything

1584
01:22:58,280 --> 01:23:02,360
Speaker 1: that we use is over, and that is a bad situation.

1585
01:23:02,640 --> 01:23:05,120
Speaker 1: You shouldn't have a single choke point that exists like that.

1586
01:23:05,520 --> 01:23:08,839
Speaker 1: That's why I support this legislation. I hear the concerns

1587
01:23:08,880 --> 01:23:12,720
Speaker 1: of Sanders of my other like minded friends who work

1588
01:23:12,960 --> 01:23:16,000
Speaker 1: in the offices. But listen, we have got to get

1589
01:23:16,080 --> 01:23:19,439
Speaker 1: out ahead of this. It takes ten years in order

1590
01:23:19,479 --> 01:23:22,760
Speaker 1: to build some of these chip fabs and other manufacturing facilities.

1591
01:23:23,000 --> 01:23:26,439
Speaker 1: We need the jobs. Already, Intel is building they've been

1592
01:23:26,479 --> 01:23:28,680
Speaker 1: waiting for this piece of legislation to pass. We need

1593
01:23:28,760 --> 01:23:31,280
Speaker 1: them in Ohio, we need them in Arizona, we need

1594
01:23:31,360 --> 01:23:34,880
Speaker 1: them in Texas, all across the country. Other chip manufacturers

1595
01:23:34,880 --> 01:23:37,840
Speaker 1: are already saying they're going to invest increasingly twenty to

1596
01:23:37,920 --> 01:23:40,600
Speaker 1: one hundred billion dollars here in the United States. We

1597
01:23:40,680 --> 01:23:43,519
Speaker 1: need this money. We just simply do. We cannot exist.

1598
01:23:43,840 --> 01:23:46,560
Speaker 1: So listen, is it baked full of some stuff that

1599
01:23:46,760 --> 01:23:48,280
Speaker 1: I'm not going to like? And are some of these

1600
01:23:48,320 --> 01:23:51,400
Speaker 1: companies always going to do the best thing? Absolutely not. However,

1601
01:23:51,880 --> 01:23:53,880
Speaker 1: this thing got to sixty four votes in the US Senate.

1602
01:23:54,280 --> 01:23:56,479
Speaker 1: Hopefully from what we see right now, it is going

1603
01:23:56,520 --> 01:23:59,280
Speaker 1: to pass in the House. To that a little more

1604
01:24:00,040 --> 01:24:01,800
Speaker 1: out and we'll get to that in a minute. Yeah,

1605
01:24:01,960 --> 01:24:05,439
Speaker 1: a loop. Well, let me just say, I am I

1606
01:24:05,479 --> 01:24:07,960
Speaker 1: don't think that Senator Sanders is really wrong about anything

1607
01:24:08,000 --> 01:24:10,200
Speaker 1: that he's saying here. I think his concerns are entirely

1608
01:24:10,320 --> 01:24:13,679
Speaker 1: legitimate and justified. And the reality is, and this does suck,

1609
01:24:13,840 --> 01:24:18,240
Speaker 1: like Intel is basically blackmailing the US government because they

1610
01:24:18,640 --> 01:24:22,439
Speaker 1: were going to create this production facility in Columbus, Ohio,

1611
01:24:22,920 --> 01:24:25,679
Speaker 1: and then they're like, Eh, don't know, if we're going

1612
01:24:25,760 --> 01:24:27,680
Speaker 1: to you're going to have to bribe us to do it.

1613
01:24:28,120 --> 01:24:31,360
Speaker 1: And that's the reality of the situation, and that does

1614
01:24:31,720 --> 01:24:35,600
Speaker 1: totally suck. And by the way, Bernie's Bernie offered an

1615
01:24:35,600 --> 01:24:38,160
Speaker 1: amendment here which should have been included and of course

1616
01:24:38,240 --> 01:24:41,040
Speaker 1: was voted down, but is entirely reasonable, which says that

1617
01:24:41,200 --> 01:24:45,479
Speaker 1: if chip microchip companies get this taxpayer assistance, they shouldn't

1618
01:24:45,479 --> 01:24:49,519
Speaker 1: be able to outsource American jobs overseas. Good addition, repeal

1619
01:24:49,600 --> 01:24:52,639
Speaker 1: existing collective bargaining agreements and must remain neutral in any

1620
01:24:53,160 --> 01:24:57,040
Speaker 1: union organizing effort. That should have been added, it wasn't,

1621
01:24:57,240 --> 01:25:00,360
Speaker 1: So the bill is worse for not having provision like

1622
01:25:00,400 --> 01:25:03,160
Speaker 1: that in place to make sure that you actually end

1623
01:25:03,240 --> 01:25:05,800
Speaker 1: up with these jobs and with this production, and that

1624
01:25:05,960 --> 01:25:11,360
Speaker 1: it is being done by union union workers. However, when

1625
01:25:11,400 --> 01:25:13,799
Speaker 1: you look at it on balance and you say, okay,

1626
01:25:14,240 --> 01:25:16,559
Speaker 1: but this is the reality we live in, and yes,

1627
01:25:17,280 --> 01:25:19,200
Speaker 1: you are going to have to in order to get

1628
01:25:19,240 --> 01:25:21,639
Speaker 1: this through, you're going to have to have Republicans on board.

1629
01:25:22,160 --> 01:25:24,160
Speaker 1: It is one hundred percent the case that the things

1630
01:25:24,200 --> 01:25:26,960
Speaker 1: that get through the Senate are things that corporate America likes.

1631
01:25:27,000 --> 01:25:29,320
Speaker 1: There is no doubt about that. Center Sanders point on

1632
01:25:29,400 --> 01:25:31,479
Speaker 1: that is is well taken as well. He goes on

1633
01:25:31,600 --> 01:25:34,080
Speaker 1: to say, like, Okay, you know, what's the reason why

1634
01:25:34,120 --> 01:25:36,559
Speaker 1: we get the corporate subsidies through, but not say universal

1635
01:25:36,600 --> 01:25:39,600
Speaker 1: health care. He's not wrong about any of that. But

1636
01:25:39,760 --> 01:25:44,320
Speaker 1: when you take the reality as it exists on balance,

1637
01:25:44,479 --> 01:25:46,000
Speaker 1: if I was in the Senate, would I vote for

1638
01:25:46,040 --> 01:25:49,400
Speaker 1: this bill? I would because it's industrial policy. That's something

1639
01:25:49,439 --> 01:25:52,519
Speaker 1: that has been sort of like off the table for

1640
01:25:52,600 --> 01:25:55,200
Speaker 1: a lot of years. Yeah, it's normal, something I believe in.

1641
01:25:55,840 --> 01:25:57,560
Speaker 1: I wish it was done a little bit better than this,

1642
01:25:57,640 --> 01:25:59,839
Speaker 1: which is most you know, it does have some elements

1643
01:25:59,880 --> 01:26:02,519
Speaker 1: of basically like a corporate giveaway, but this is a

1644
01:26:02,680 --> 01:26:07,000
Speaker 1: really critical piece of bringing a critical supply line back

1645
01:26:07,160 --> 01:26:12,320
Speaker 1: to our shores and hopefully creating some good paying American

1646
01:26:12,439 --> 01:26:17,320
Speaker 1: jobs manufacturing these advanced ships, which is critical for again

1647
01:26:17,439 --> 01:26:21,519
Speaker 1: consumer products, electric cars, advanced weaponry, all of the above.

1648
01:26:21,680 --> 01:26:24,719
Speaker 1: So even though I think the objections are well founded,

1649
01:26:24,840 --> 01:26:27,479
Speaker 1: I can't really disagree with anything that Bernie is saying here.

1650
01:26:28,040 --> 01:26:29,960
Speaker 1: If this is the only bill that I have a

1651
01:26:30,080 --> 01:26:32,000
Speaker 1: chance to vote for, yeah, would probably vote in favor.

1652
01:26:32,080 --> 01:26:35,080
Speaker 1: And that's why I take the concerns of the people

1653
01:26:35,160 --> 01:26:37,160
Speaker 1: who say it's not it's too much power in the

1654
01:26:37,200 --> 01:26:39,800
Speaker 1: hands of commerce. I take the concerns of that, but

1655
01:26:39,960 --> 01:26:41,920
Speaker 1: I do get annoyed when I see like Robert Reich

1656
01:26:41,920 --> 01:26:43,680
Speaker 1: and all those people, but like carporate welfare, I'm like,

1657
01:26:43,720 --> 01:26:46,040
Speaker 1: what are you a Cato libertarian? Now? I mean, listen, Like,

1658
01:26:46,160 --> 01:26:48,880
Speaker 1: sometimes corporate welfare is good if it's good for the

1659
01:26:48,960 --> 01:26:51,360
Speaker 1: people who are workers, as we all found. It's like

1660
01:26:51,400 --> 01:26:53,640
Speaker 1: the airline bailout. I wasn't opposed to bailing out the

1661
01:26:53,680 --> 01:26:55,600
Speaker 1: airlines as long as you do it right. Now, it

1662
01:26:55,760 --> 01:26:57,799
Speaker 1: wasn't done properly, and I think that that is certainly

1663
01:26:57,840 --> 01:27:00,120
Speaker 1: an issue, and we should use that as a we

1664
01:27:00,120 --> 01:27:01,720
Speaker 1: should use that as a track record. But is that

1665
01:27:01,840 --> 01:27:04,280
Speaker 1: the reason to never bail out the airlines. Again, No,

1666
01:27:04,479 --> 01:27:06,519
Speaker 1: we need air travel. So it's the same thing when

1667
01:27:06,560 --> 01:27:08,280
Speaker 1: it comes to the Chips. I don't think it's going

1668
01:27:08,320 --> 01:27:10,720
Speaker 1: to be perfect. It certainly is not. And there's some

1669
01:27:10,800 --> 01:27:13,479
Speaker 1: interesting legislative maneuvers we'll talk about in the Joe Mansion

1670
01:27:13,760 --> 01:27:15,680
Speaker 1: block which are kind of interesting as to how all

1671
01:27:15,720 --> 01:27:18,479
Speaker 1: of this was kind of used to hoodwink Republicans. But

1672
01:27:18,680 --> 01:27:21,800
Speaker 1: on its face, we should celebrate when people do things

1673
01:27:21,800 --> 01:27:24,920
Speaker 1: which are good for the country. Sometimes, yes, that aligns

1674
01:27:24,960 --> 01:27:27,360
Speaker 1: with corporate interests, and I'm generally okay with that. Yeah,

1675
01:27:27,400 --> 01:27:28,479
Speaker 1: we got to keep an eye on it and make

1676
01:27:28,479 --> 01:27:31,080
Speaker 1: sure we hold them accountable. Oh, by the way, if

1677
01:27:31,080 --> 01:27:34,000
Speaker 1: there's cheating, taking the money and running and never creating

1678
01:27:34,000 --> 01:27:35,400
Speaker 1: any If there's cheating, who do you think will be

1679
01:27:35,400 --> 01:27:37,160
Speaker 1: the very first people who talk about it. It will

1680
01:27:37,160 --> 01:27:38,880
Speaker 1: be right here on the show. And I can promise

1681
01:27:38,920 --> 01:27:43,400
Speaker 1: you that. All right, let's talk about manage let's talk

1682
01:27:43,400 --> 01:27:48,760
Speaker 1: about mansion. Well, this was a surprise. We actually might

1683
01:27:49,000 --> 01:27:53,000
Speaker 1: have a deal with Joe Manson, and it's kind of significant.

1684
01:27:53,200 --> 01:27:57,040
Speaker 1: There's a fairly large, fairly large deal to be passing,

1685
01:27:57,200 --> 01:28:00,320
Speaker 1: you know, through reconciliation with just the fifty Democratics votes.

1686
01:28:00,600 --> 01:28:02,439
Speaker 1: Assuming we can get everybody on board, and we'll get

1687
01:28:02,439 --> 01:28:03,640
Speaker 1: to that in a minute. Let's go ahead and throw

1688
01:28:03,680 --> 01:28:06,160
Speaker 1: this first piece up on the screen. This really came

1689
01:28:06,280 --> 01:28:10,840
Speaker 1: out of nowhere, they say. Mansion announces support for the

1690
01:28:11,120 --> 01:28:15,960
Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act aka the Reconciliation Bill, formerly known as

1691
01:28:16,040 --> 01:28:19,200
Speaker 1: Build Back Better. His quote in this piece is build

1692
01:28:19,280 --> 01:28:22,600
Speaker 1: Back Better is dead, and instead we have the opportunity

1693
01:28:22,640 --> 01:28:25,800
Speaker 1: to make our country stronger by bringing Americans together, and

1694
01:28:25,920 --> 01:28:28,120
Speaker 1: he outlines a detail in the statement. I mean read

1695
01:28:28,160 --> 01:28:30,760
Speaker 1: through this statement. It's classic Mansion. He takes a lot

1696
01:28:30,800 --> 01:28:35,720
Speaker 1: of shots at Democrats and progressives and the Biden administration

1697
01:28:35,920 --> 01:28:38,200
Speaker 1: and makes it clear that his priority is dealing with

1698
01:28:38,720 --> 01:28:41,680
Speaker 1: inflation and that he went through and made sure all

1699
01:28:41,760 --> 01:28:43,880
Speaker 1: of the pieces of this deal are ultimately going to

1700
01:28:43,920 --> 01:28:47,880
Speaker 1: combat inflation. And he does some deficit hawk language here

1701
01:28:47,920 --> 01:28:50,080
Speaker 1: as well, which is part of this bill too. But

1702
01:28:50,840 --> 01:28:52,679
Speaker 1: and we're going to get into the details in a moment.

1703
01:28:52,960 --> 01:28:58,120
Speaker 1: You know, everybody really thought that this was all dead, done, gone,

1704
01:28:58,479 --> 01:29:02,759
Speaker 1: that Mansion was not negotiating in anything approaching good faith.

1705
01:29:03,240 --> 01:29:07,400
Speaker 1: And now truly, at the last minute, we have a possible,

1706
01:29:07,640 --> 01:29:10,840
Speaker 1: fairly significant deal. So let's talk about what policies are

1707
01:29:11,000 --> 01:29:12,680
Speaker 1: in this from our friend Jeff Stein over at the

1708
01:29:12,760 --> 01:29:16,240
Speaker 1: Washington Post. Among policies, Mansion talks about an announcing deal

1709
01:29:16,280 --> 01:29:19,800
Speaker 1: with Schumer prescription drug reform. So this would be the

1710
01:29:19,960 --> 01:29:23,240
Speaker 1: Medicare drug pricing negotiation which Democrats have been running on

1711
01:29:23,320 --> 01:29:27,760
Speaker 1: for like decades now. Fifteen percent minimum tax on corporations

1712
01:29:28,240 --> 01:29:31,920
Speaker 1: who earn over a billion dollars significant dollars for renewables

1713
01:29:31,960 --> 01:29:36,560
Speaker 1: including hydrogen, nuclear, SAGA, fossil fuels, and energy storage. And

1714
01:29:36,640 --> 01:29:39,599
Speaker 1: then he says a separate deal to do permitting reform

1715
01:29:39,800 --> 01:29:41,960
Speaker 1: in the fall. Let me pause on that part for

1716
01:29:42,080 --> 01:29:43,800
Speaker 1: a minute. It's a kind of a side note, but

1717
01:29:44,479 --> 01:29:48,000
Speaker 1: one of the things that Mansion required in order to

1718
01:29:48,160 --> 01:29:51,240
Speaker 1: be involved in this deal is that the Biden administration

1719
01:29:51,400 --> 01:29:54,879
Speaker 1: is going to green light some new fossil fuel project.

1720
01:29:55,120 --> 01:29:58,599
Speaker 1: That's when when they say permitting reform, that's what that means. Now,

1721
01:29:59,400 --> 01:30:01,120
Speaker 1: as we're learning the details of this, and we can

1722
01:30:01,120 --> 01:30:02,679
Speaker 1: go ahead and put this next piece up on the screen.

1723
01:30:02,760 --> 01:30:05,040
Speaker 1: This is more from Jeff Stein. Here are some of

1724
01:30:05,160 --> 01:30:09,679
Speaker 1: the specific dollar amounts. So in terms of raising revenue

1725
01:30:09,800 --> 01:30:12,679
Speaker 1: through tax hikes, you'd have about three hundred and thirteen

1726
01:30:12,760 --> 01:30:16,360
Speaker 1: billion on that fifteen percent corporate minimum tax, which again

1727
01:30:16,560 --> 01:30:19,960
Speaker 1: only applies to large corporations. You'd gain about two hundred

1728
01:30:19,960 --> 01:30:22,920
Speaker 1: and eighty eight billion through that prescription drug pricing reform.

1729
01:30:23,000 --> 01:30:25,519
Speaker 1: Medicare being able to negotiate something that is a complete

1730
01:30:25,560 --> 01:30:28,280
Speaker 1: no brainer. One hundred and twenty four billion on IRS

1731
01:30:28,439 --> 01:30:33,240
Speaker 1: tax enforcement and fourteen billion on closing the carried interest

1732
01:30:33,360 --> 01:30:37,479
Speaker 1: loophole that benefits private equity goules. On the spending side,

1733
01:30:37,680 --> 01:30:40,320
Speaker 1: the big pieces are three hundred and sixty nine billion

1734
01:30:40,479 --> 01:30:43,639
Speaker 1: dollars for energy and for climate change, and sixty four

1735
01:30:43,720 --> 01:30:48,720
Speaker 1: billion on AC eight extension. So overall, the analyzes that

1736
01:30:48,960 --> 01:30:52,000
Speaker 1: I've read have said that the spending on climate here,

1737
01:30:52,360 --> 01:30:55,519
Speaker 1: even though obviously it's not ideal to green light new

1738
01:30:55,640 --> 01:30:58,479
Speaker 1: fossil fuel projects when you're focusing on just the climate,

1739
01:30:58,880 --> 01:31:04,160
Speaker 1: the spending here is goes way beyond the cut emissions, significantly,

1740
01:31:04,280 --> 01:31:06,400
Speaker 1: way beyond the increase that would be caused by this

1741
01:31:06,479 --> 01:31:08,320
Speaker 1: permitting reform that's going to happen. And let me also

1742
01:31:08,400 --> 01:31:11,280
Speaker 1: tell you why I'm very happy with the look my

1743
01:31:11,400 --> 01:31:15,800
Speaker 1: credit Joe Manchin. He specifically fought against the ideologues who

1744
01:31:15,920 --> 01:31:19,280
Speaker 1: tried to make this a non technology neutral tax credit,

1745
01:31:19,360 --> 01:31:21,880
Speaker 1: which means that the tax credit will be allowed to

1746
01:31:21,960 --> 01:31:28,000
Speaker 1: go to wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear, which for the

1747
01:31:28,360 --> 01:31:32,599
Speaker 1: past we have specifically blocked nuclear and other power sources

1748
01:31:32,680 --> 01:31:35,200
Speaker 1: out of these tech credits. As one of my biggest

1749
01:31:35,400 --> 01:31:39,200
Speaker 1: critiques of climate policy is they specifically subsidize solar and

1750
01:31:39,320 --> 01:31:43,759
Speaker 1: wind to the detriment of nuclear power. Now with technology neutral,

1751
01:31:44,000 --> 01:31:46,240
Speaker 1: it all comes down to carbon emissions, baby, And with

1752
01:31:46,360 --> 01:31:48,640
Speaker 1: that one, I think that we all know, especially not

1753
01:31:48,800 --> 01:31:51,880
Speaker 1: only carbon, but in terms of good capacity. Of course,

1754
01:31:51,920 --> 01:31:53,760
Speaker 1: the devil's in the details, and if they do do this,

1755
01:31:53,840 --> 01:31:57,120
Speaker 1: spend this on boondoggle solar projects and wind projects. I

1756
01:31:57,160 --> 01:31:59,160
Speaker 1: will be the first. But to have that written into

1757
01:31:59,200 --> 01:32:01,040
Speaker 1: a law is actually a big win for nuclear power

1758
01:32:01,080 --> 01:32:03,519
Speaker 1: proponents like myself. Let's go and put the next one

1759
01:32:03,600 --> 01:32:06,040
Speaker 1: up there on the screen from David dan This shows

1760
01:32:06,080 --> 01:32:09,200
Speaker 1: you again the specifics on the actual revenue raise, and

1761
01:32:09,320 --> 01:32:11,120
Speaker 1: let's spend a little bit of time here. The bigginness

1762
01:32:11,240 --> 01:32:14,400
Speaker 1: revenue raiser is called the fifteen percent corporate minimum tax,

1763
01:32:14,479 --> 01:32:17,160
Speaker 1: called a book min tax. That tax is a very

1764
01:32:17,200 --> 01:32:20,120
Speaker 1: interesting one has not really been talked a lot in Washington,

1765
01:32:20,400 --> 01:32:23,439
Speaker 1: and was originally a proposal by Senator Elizabeth Warren, which

1766
01:32:23,520 --> 01:32:25,720
Speaker 1: kind of came out of nowhere. The reason why is

1767
01:32:25,800 --> 01:32:28,439
Speaker 1: it doesn't piss off Joe Manchin, who is for raising

1768
01:32:28,520 --> 01:32:31,880
Speaker 1: corporate taxes. It also doesn't piss off corporate Christen Cinema,

1769
01:32:32,000 --> 01:32:35,439
Speaker 1: who is against raising individual taxes. So in that environment

1770
01:32:35,600 --> 01:32:37,880
Speaker 1: it's actually pretty hard to raise revenue. The way this

1771
01:32:37,960 --> 01:32:41,439
Speaker 1: would work is that many corporations technically do not pay

1772
01:32:41,520 --> 01:32:45,000
Speaker 1: any corporate taxes whatsoever. What they do is they use

1773
01:32:45,120 --> 01:32:47,800
Speaker 1: energy tax credits and other write offs in order to

1774
01:32:47,840 --> 01:32:51,040
Speaker 1: make sure that their corporate tax rate is often two percent.

1775
01:32:51,080 --> 01:32:53,040
Speaker 1: In some cases, they actually get paid money by the government.

1776
01:32:53,320 --> 01:32:55,920
Speaker 1: This would make it so that even if you have

1777
01:32:56,120 --> 01:32:59,120
Speaker 1: energy tax credits, even if you do so, you still

1778
01:32:59,200 --> 01:33:03,080
Speaker 1: have to pay fifteen percent corporate tax on that. And again,

1779
01:33:03,120 --> 01:33:06,920
Speaker 1: this would only apply to corporations in the United States,

1780
01:33:06,960 --> 01:33:09,160
Speaker 1: and it does raise a pretty significant amount of money.

1781
01:33:09,760 --> 01:33:12,280
Speaker 1: The other way that it's quote unquote raising revenue is

1782
01:33:12,360 --> 01:33:15,080
Speaker 1: not really though, because it's more about savings, prescription drug

1783
01:33:15,160 --> 01:33:18,600
Speaker 1: pricing reform, IRS, tax enforcements only. I'm massively in favor of.

1784
01:33:18,960 --> 01:33:21,479
Speaker 1: As we've talked about here before, you are three times

1785
01:33:21,560 --> 01:33:24,680
Speaker 1: more likely to get audited as a person who makes

1786
01:33:24,760 --> 01:33:27,479
Speaker 1: less than twenty five thousand dollars than you are if

1787
01:33:27,520 --> 01:33:30,200
Speaker 1: you are a billionaire. Don't tell me how that makes

1788
01:33:30,280 --> 01:33:34,080
Speaker 1: any sense. The current IRS mechanism is to go after

1789
01:33:34,240 --> 01:33:37,840
Speaker 1: poor people steal their money, and because it's so complicated

1790
01:33:37,920 --> 01:33:40,080
Speaker 1: to go after the super rich, they don't do anything.

1791
01:33:40,160 --> 01:33:42,880
Speaker 1: It's always been total and complete bullshit. And as long

1792
01:33:42,920 --> 01:33:45,000
Speaker 1: as they don't use this money to go after people's

1793
01:33:45,040 --> 01:33:47,639
Speaker 1: venomone transactions, I'll be in favor of it. The carried

1794
01:33:47,680 --> 01:33:50,280
Speaker 1: in just loophole also is just outrageous. I'm actually very

1795
01:33:50,320 --> 01:33:52,720
Speaker 1: suspect that it will only raise fourteen billions, so I

1796
01:33:52,800 --> 01:33:55,439
Speaker 1: have some questions on the details on the investment side.

1797
01:33:55,680 --> 01:33:57,840
Speaker 1: As I said, listen, I mean, as long as it's

1798
01:33:57,840 --> 01:34:00,720
Speaker 1: technology neutral, I really don't care to throw even more

1799
01:34:00,760 --> 01:34:03,639
Speaker 1: money at these things. And the Affordable Care Act extension

1800
01:34:03,800 --> 01:34:05,880
Speaker 1: of credits as well. I mean we're talking here about

1801
01:34:06,000 --> 01:34:08,960
Speaker 1: old people mostly, it's seniors who would have been hit

1802
01:34:09,040 --> 01:34:11,760
Speaker 1: with a massive increase in their area, and it was

1803
01:34:11,920 --> 01:34:14,599
Speaker 1: going to happen. Liked for the election too, I mean

1804
01:34:14,640 --> 01:34:17,639
Speaker 1: it was it was a moral catastrophe. It was also

1805
01:34:17,680 --> 01:34:21,479
Speaker 1: an electoral looming electoral catastrophe for the Democrat, so shows

1806
01:34:21,520 --> 01:34:23,600
Speaker 1: you they at least have like three brain cells to

1807
01:34:23,680 --> 01:34:26,320
Speaker 1: rub together to figure out that this was a bad idea.

1808
01:34:26,720 --> 01:34:29,719
Speaker 1: Moving forward, now, the carried interest loophole, this is something

1809
01:34:29,880 --> 01:34:32,400
Speaker 1: I believe Trump claimed he was going to close it.

1810
01:34:32,479 --> 01:34:34,440
Speaker 1: I mean, this is what we got against. It benefits

1811
01:34:34,760 --> 01:34:39,160
Speaker 1: just a private equity goal, total giveaway in the tax

1812
01:34:39,280 --> 01:34:43,519
Speaker 1: code for a very small subset of very wealthy Americans. However,

1813
01:34:43,800 --> 01:34:46,840
Speaker 1: it does call into question whether Kirson Cinema is going

1814
01:34:46,920 --> 01:34:48,479
Speaker 1: to sign on to this. And again, this has got

1815
01:34:48,520 --> 01:34:50,599
Speaker 1: to go through reconciliation. You have to get every single

1816
01:34:50,680 --> 01:34:53,640
Speaker 1: Democrat on board in order to accomplish this. She is

1817
01:34:53,720 --> 01:34:55,640
Speaker 1: said in the past that she does not want to

1818
01:34:55,840 --> 01:34:59,920
Speaker 1: close the carried interest loophole. So we'll see. And you know, say,

1819
01:35:00,000 --> 01:35:01,720
Speaker 1: since it is a small amount of the revenue, is

1820
01:35:01,760 --> 01:35:03,640
Speaker 1: that the thing that they toss aside to say, oh,

1821
01:35:03,680 --> 01:35:07,240
Speaker 1: we're negotiating and whatever very possible that the private equity

1822
01:35:07,280 --> 01:35:09,400
Speaker 1: goouls ultimately keep their little good e Better me to

1823
01:35:09,400 --> 01:35:11,280
Speaker 1: tell you, Christol, I don't think Cinema is the biggest

1824
01:35:11,320 --> 01:35:14,000
Speaker 1: obstacle to this. It is going to be Josh Gottheimer

1825
01:35:14,160 --> 01:35:17,240
Speaker 1: and Bob Menendez who have already come outt cot I

1826
01:35:17,280 --> 01:35:19,760
Speaker 1: guess everybody what they are so pissed off about the

1827
01:35:19,960 --> 01:35:23,200
Speaker 1: salt tax. So basically, as we've read out before, state

1828
01:35:23,240 --> 01:35:25,120
Speaker 1: and local deductions, it used to be that you could

1829
01:35:25,160 --> 01:35:27,479
Speaker 1: deduct all of the taxes that you paid in state

1830
01:35:27,560 --> 01:35:30,360
Speaker 1: and local taxes from your federal income tax burden. Now

1831
01:35:31,320 --> 01:35:33,720
Speaker 1: under the Trump administration, you were not able to do so,

1832
01:35:34,200 --> 01:35:36,639
Speaker 1: so they raised they put a cap on it, basically

1833
01:35:36,680 --> 01:35:39,519
Speaker 1: a ten thousand dollars Now removing the cap, which is

1834
01:35:39,560 --> 01:35:42,559
Speaker 1: what New Jersey and California and other high income tax

1835
01:35:42,600 --> 01:35:47,800
Speaker 1: states want, would effectively be a massive boon, only again

1836
01:35:48,040 --> 01:35:51,920
Speaker 1: only two millionaires and billionaires in the United States. Ninety

1837
01:35:52,000 --> 01:35:55,280
Speaker 1: percent of the benefit of lifting the salt cap goes

1838
01:35:55,560 --> 01:35:59,240
Speaker 1: to people who make over one million dollars per year.

1839
01:35:59,400 --> 01:36:01,479
Speaker 1: So it's kind of a hilarious thing that they are

1840
01:36:01,840 --> 01:36:04,400
Speaker 1: going to the mat right now to try and include

1841
01:36:04,680 --> 01:36:10,560
Speaker 1: the salt cap removal, and Mansion explicitly trashes them in

1842
01:36:10,800 --> 01:36:13,519
Speaker 1: his long statement that he wrote and says, you know,

1843
01:36:13,600 --> 01:36:16,160
Speaker 1: we're not going to do these tax cut giveaways red

1844
01:36:16,200 --> 01:36:19,080
Speaker 1: states and blue states in this way. So are they

1845
01:36:19,200 --> 01:36:22,439
Speaker 1: going to get on how hardcore are they? No salt,

1846
01:36:22,520 --> 01:36:25,280
Speaker 1: no deal? Will they take the deal over a multi

1847
01:36:25,439 --> 01:36:28,720
Speaker 1: millionaire tax giveaway. Let's see. Let's see, and then I'd

1848
01:36:28,760 --> 01:36:30,720
Speaker 1: love to see that. The other question is are you

1849
01:36:30,840 --> 01:36:33,200
Speaker 1: going to have you know, all the progressives on board.

1850
01:36:33,320 --> 01:36:36,120
Speaker 1: I think you likely are, because this is a much

1851
01:36:36,240 --> 01:36:39,400
Speaker 1: more significant deal than we Hadn't even been following this

1852
01:36:39,520 --> 01:36:41,960
Speaker 1: closely anymore, guys, because frankly, it was just so pathetic.

1853
01:36:42,040 --> 01:36:44,760
Speaker 1: The negotiations were so far ustraed. There was nobody really

1854
01:36:44,840 --> 01:36:47,720
Speaker 1: thought this was going to ultimately come together. And what

1855
01:36:47,840 --> 01:36:50,600
Speaker 1: the deal had collapsed to is like, maybe we're going

1856
01:36:50,680 --> 01:36:54,080
Speaker 1: to do the ACA subsidies and the prescription drug pricing reform,

1857
01:36:54,160 --> 01:36:56,519
Speaker 1: and that was basically it. So the fact that now

1858
01:36:56,560 --> 01:37:03,479
Speaker 1: you're getting really significant money towards climate priorities and you know,

1859
01:37:03,840 --> 01:37:07,280
Speaker 1: hiking taxes on the rich in a significant way. I

1860
01:37:07,479 --> 01:37:10,640
Speaker 1: suspect the Congressional Progressive Caucus is going to get on

1861
01:37:10,760 --> 01:37:13,640
Speaker 1: board with this and be you know, uniform locksteps. So

1862
01:37:14,400 --> 01:37:18,080
Speaker 1: even if you have fe people like Gotttheimer who are

1863
01:37:18,600 --> 01:37:21,320
Speaker 1: one to vote you know, against it, you still have

1864
01:37:21,520 --> 01:37:24,000
Speaker 1: at least a few votes you could give away to

1865
01:37:24,479 --> 01:37:27,120
Speaker 1: the you know, idiots over on the ASST Caucus. But

1866
01:37:27,400 --> 01:37:29,840
Speaker 1: the politics of this are also very interesting and I

1867
01:37:29,920 --> 01:37:32,639
Speaker 1: have to say a very rare kind of a gangster

1868
01:37:32,760 --> 01:37:37,360
Speaker 1: move from Democrats here because they kept this thing so

1869
01:37:37,640 --> 01:37:40,679
Speaker 1: close to the vest I mean, and that it didn't

1870
01:37:40,840 --> 01:37:43,160
Speaker 1: leak that they were this far along in negotiations. And

1871
01:37:43,280 --> 01:37:45,840
Speaker 1: the reason why this matters, go and put this last

1872
01:37:45,840 --> 01:37:49,440
Speaker 1: piece up on the screen G five McConnell and Republicans

1873
01:37:49,560 --> 01:37:52,240
Speaker 1: said they were not going to pass that CHIPSAC that

1874
01:37:52,320 --> 01:37:55,680
Speaker 1: we talked about if a reconciliation deal like this was

1875
01:37:55,800 --> 01:38:00,280
Speaker 1: still alive. So they passed chips and that very day,

1876
01:38:00,560 --> 01:38:06,080
Speaker 1: hours later, Democrats announced this deal. So they really were

1877
01:38:06,160 --> 01:38:09,000
Speaker 1: able to keep any of the details leaking out, keep

1878
01:38:09,040 --> 01:38:12,120
Speaker 1: the Republicans from getting suspicious at all, because McConnell said

1879
01:38:12,120 --> 01:38:14,760
Speaker 1: he's going to tank the Chips deal if Democrats are

1880
01:38:14,800 --> 01:38:18,479
Speaker 1: going to go forward with a reconciliation deal. And now

1881
01:38:18,840 --> 01:38:21,479
Speaker 1: you have Republicans because this thing, the CHIPSAC, still has

1882
01:38:21,520 --> 01:38:24,360
Speaker 1: to pass the House, So you have Republicans actually whipping

1883
01:38:24,479 --> 01:38:28,639
Speaker 1: against the Chips deal in the House now because they're

1884
01:38:28,640 --> 01:38:30,840
Speaker 1: pissed off about the reconciliation but which to me is

1885
01:38:30,880 --> 01:38:33,160
Speaker 1: really stupid. You either support the legislation or you don't.

1886
01:38:33,720 --> 01:38:36,040
Speaker 1: I don't get it, but that's Their strategy is basically like,

1887
01:38:36,160 --> 01:38:38,360
Speaker 1: we want to punish you for doing something that you

1888
01:38:38,400 --> 01:38:41,680
Speaker 1: know your voters find to be a priority. Anyway, I

1889
01:38:41,800 --> 01:38:43,960
Speaker 1: don't think that that's going to be successful in the House,

1890
01:38:44,000 --> 01:38:47,120
Speaker 1: but they are signaling their displeasure by doing that. And also,

1891
01:38:47,479 --> 01:38:51,200
Speaker 1: and this is really just horrendous and stupid and wrong,

1892
01:38:51,560 --> 01:38:55,599
Speaker 1: they're also trying to hold up the funding for sufferers

1893
01:38:55,760 --> 01:38:59,360
Speaker 1: from toxic burn pits. Is their other thing that they're

1894
01:38:59,439 --> 01:39:02,360
Speaker 1: doing to you express their displeasure. They're going to make

1895
01:39:02,479 --> 01:39:06,000
Speaker 1: veterans suffer in order to express their displeasure over this

1896
01:39:06,080 --> 01:39:09,080
Speaker 1: deal with mansion. Yeah. I think what's also really interesting

1897
01:39:09,160 --> 01:39:11,360
Speaker 1: about By the way, on the Chips Act, I just checked,

1898
01:39:11,680 --> 01:39:14,200
Speaker 1: people are saying that the whip count basically twenty Republicans

1899
01:39:14,200 --> 01:39:15,360
Speaker 1: are still going to vote for it, So it's very

1900
01:39:15,479 --> 01:39:17,760
Speaker 1: likely a pass even if people do vote against it.

1901
01:39:17,800 --> 01:39:19,880
Speaker 1: We'll see, though, it's possible that they turn this into

1902
01:39:20,240 --> 01:39:23,760
Speaker 1: a much bigger thing. Anyway, It's fascinating, let's see how

1903
01:39:23,840 --> 01:39:25,960
Speaker 1: it plays out. I just want to do the caution

1904
01:39:26,439 --> 01:39:29,240
Speaker 1: we're still a long way away from this thing becoming law.

1905
01:39:29,479 --> 01:39:32,320
Speaker 1: So in terms of what the next steps are, Number One,

1906
01:39:32,840 --> 01:39:36,360
Speaker 1: this still has to go through the parliamentarian they have

1907
01:39:36,520 --> 01:39:40,000
Speaker 1: to decide every single one on whether it's revenue neutral

1908
01:39:40,160 --> 01:39:42,280
Speaker 1: or not as and if it bounces out because otherwise

1909
01:39:42,479 --> 01:39:46,679
Speaker 1: it doesn't comport with the rules of reconciliation. Number two,

1910
01:39:47,040 --> 01:39:49,800
Speaker 1: the two parties have to go back and forth in

1911
01:39:49,920 --> 01:39:52,920
Speaker 1: like a quasi legal argument over every single piece of

1912
01:39:53,040 --> 01:39:55,000
Speaker 1: the bill. That takes a long time. They need to

1913
01:39:55,080 --> 01:39:57,080
Speaker 1: do what they call the bird bath. Yeah, it's called

1914
01:39:57,080 --> 01:39:59,839
Speaker 1: bird bath. Yeah, yeah, I know. It's welcome to Washington.

1915
01:40:00,080 --> 01:40:04,080
Speaker 1: What a town. Then we also have to do vote rama,

1916
01:40:04,280 --> 01:40:08,160
Speaker 1: which means that during a reconciliation process, Republicans and Democrats

1917
01:40:08,200 --> 01:40:10,160
Speaker 1: get hours and hours on the floor time and they

1918
01:40:10,240 --> 01:40:13,200
Speaker 1: try to add thousands of amendments to the bill and

1919
01:40:13,280 --> 01:40:15,880
Speaker 1: they give speeches and it can take days and days

1920
01:40:15,920 --> 01:40:17,960
Speaker 1: and days. So we don't know when that process is

1921
01:40:18,040 --> 01:40:19,920
Speaker 1: going to start. And as we said, the damn bill

1922
01:40:20,000 --> 01:40:22,120
Speaker 1: is still not out as in Devil's and always in

1923
01:40:22,160 --> 01:40:24,920
Speaker 1: the details, it's in the text. There are still many

1924
01:40:25,000 --> 01:40:27,080
Speaker 1: things that could be thrown at this and it's still

1925
01:40:27,600 --> 01:40:30,080
Speaker 1: I personally, I think in what maybe seventy percent chances

1926
01:40:30,120 --> 01:40:32,080
Speaker 1: it becomes law. So that's actually not that high if

1927
01:40:32,080 --> 01:40:34,280
Speaker 1: you consider it. Yeah, if you consider it. There are

1928
01:40:34,320 --> 01:40:36,600
Speaker 1: still many ways they could screw this up just have

1929
01:40:36,800 --> 01:40:39,000
Speaker 1: no doubt about it, or the Mansion could suddenly once

1930
01:40:39,040 --> 01:40:40,960
Speaker 1: again be like, oh no, but now I don't like

1931
01:40:41,040 --> 01:40:42,519
Speaker 1: this part of it that you wrote into it, or

1932
01:40:42,600 --> 01:40:44,880
Speaker 1: Cures and Cinema could be you know, play the spoiler

1933
01:40:44,960 --> 01:40:47,479
Speaker 1: this time. Who knows Josh gottheimer. There's still a lot

1934
01:40:47,520 --> 01:40:52,400
Speaker 1: of obstacles to cross here. But because this came from

1935
01:40:52,640 --> 01:40:57,200
Speaker 1: Mansion explicitly and wasn't like, you know, Biden Schumer bringing

1936
01:40:57,280 --> 01:40:59,000
Speaker 1: something to Mansion and say hey, do you like it?

1937
01:40:59,080 --> 01:41:01,519
Speaker 1: And what do you think? That it came directly from Mansion,

1938
01:41:01,560 --> 01:41:03,919
Speaker 1: I think is giving people a little bit more confidence

1939
01:41:04,040 --> 01:41:06,960
Speaker 1: that it may actually come to pass. And you know,

1940
01:41:07,200 --> 01:41:09,519
Speaker 1: on the theme of like Democrats actually doing a few

1941
01:41:09,600 --> 01:41:12,599
Speaker 1: things here, shockingly, they also the house Stems are also

1942
01:41:12,640 --> 01:41:17,200
Speaker 1: preparing to pass a stock bandy that includes members they

1943
01:41:17,280 --> 01:41:20,840
Speaker 1: can't hold or trade stock, which is quite I mean,

1944
01:41:20,960 --> 01:41:27,240
Speaker 1: that's awesome, members, their spouses and top eights. So something

1945
01:41:27,320 --> 01:41:30,200
Speaker 1: lit a fire under their ass. Again, listen, is it

1946
01:41:30,280 --> 01:41:33,360
Speaker 1: everything that I don't know? Are they at least doing

1947
01:41:33,880 --> 01:41:37,360
Speaker 1: something and trying to deliver for people in some way

1948
01:41:37,600 --> 01:41:40,559
Speaker 1: and thinking strategically about the future of the country. Yeah,

1949
01:41:40,640 --> 01:41:42,960
Speaker 1: they're actually dipping their toe in those waters, and it's

1950
01:41:43,000 --> 01:41:45,880
Speaker 1: pretty shocking to behold. Yeah, I don't disagree. Like I said,

1951
01:41:45,960 --> 01:41:48,439
Speaker 1: a massive victory to get technology neutral and to not

1952
01:41:48,600 --> 01:41:51,439
Speaker 1: you know, try and close down anything on gas in

1953
01:41:51,479 --> 01:41:53,519
Speaker 1: the middle of a gas rises. I think it's I'm

1954
01:41:53,560 --> 01:41:55,960
Speaker 1: amazed that they actually were able to get this