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Speaker 1: The Big Print, and why the FED can't escape Now

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Speaker 1: the Fed's been trapped. They're stuck between a rock and

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Speaker 1: a hard place and the debt doom loop, and the

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Speaker 1: choice is unavoidable. Now I'm sitting down today with Larry

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Speaker 1: the Parties, the author of the book The Big Print.

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Speaker 1: We're going to run through the mathematics of the debt,

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Speaker 1: why gold is taking off, what's going on with bitcoin,

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Speaker 1: what he thinks the right way to protect yourself from

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Speaker 1: this as this all goes down, including what his time

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Speaker 1: frames for all of this are. So it's an amazing

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Speaker 1: conversation with Larry, one you don't want to miss. Let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and just jump right in. Let's kick it

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Speaker 1: off from a bigger topic Larry. So, Larry, if you

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Speaker 1: had to pick one, banks, bonds or politics, which break first?

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Speaker 2: Ohy isn't not a great question, It's a really I

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Speaker 2: think the weakest link in the whole system is the

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Speaker 2: bond market, okay, and I think we can see some

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Speaker 2: evidence of that in the Japanese tenure. Still blow our tenure, boy.

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Speaker 2: If you look at a chart of the Japanese tenure,

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Speaker 2: it's really it's kind of doing a vertical moonshot up

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Speaker 2: into the Reich, and the US is kind of locking

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Speaker 2: the forest for one for two the US tenure, and

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Speaker 2: I think everybody's kind of watching what's Trump going to

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Speaker 2: do regarding the FED seat and who how aggressive is

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Speaker 2: the person gonna be? But you know, in fact, we

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Speaker 2: can propera a litle bit about that, you know, if

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Speaker 2: you want to. But you know, Hassett, who was extremely ken.

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Speaker 2: Hasset was extremely dubbish. It just came run on zero

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Speaker 2: hist today that he's now rumored to not be the

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Speaker 2: leading contender for the job. And my sense is that

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Speaker 2: best Assent and Trump are best and tapped Trump on

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Speaker 2: the shoulder. Maybe some of the bond market guys did

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Speaker 2: too and said, you know, sir, if we if we

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Speaker 2: appoint Hassett, we're going to really have a problem here

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Speaker 2: in the bomb market. And I'm we're gonna And so

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Speaker 2: now Kevin Warsh, he's a little bit more mainstream, a

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Speaker 2: little bit less dubbish as being talked about as the

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Speaker 2: top candidate.

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Speaker 1: Given out of the three. Do you think that the

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Speaker 1: bond market is the most likely to crack? Can you

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Speaker 1: give me a short summary as to the math into

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Speaker 1: why you feel that it's almost inevitable that the bond

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Speaker 1: market breaks at this point.

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Speaker 2: Sure, I don't know if you want to go to

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Speaker 2: the chart that I showed you earlier, but let's just

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Speaker 2: talk about kind of the big picture on the bond

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Speaker 2: market cracking. I mean, I think the issue is one

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Speaker 2: of perception, and you know, I think what we're seeing

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Speaker 2: some things happen in the marketplace that would indicate to

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Speaker 2: me that the confidence and Fiat money is really eroding rapidly.

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Speaker 2: And what am I alluding to. I'm alluding to the

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Speaker 2: silver price and the gold price, right, and so as

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Speaker 2: everybody knows, silver was up one hundred and fifty percent

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Speaker 2: last year, gold was up sixty five percent last year.

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Speaker 2: These are kind of unprecedented things that indicate to me that,

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Speaker 2: you know, worldwide, at a central bank and sovereign level

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Speaker 2: and also at an individual level, people are just losing

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Speaker 2: faith in the currency and they're doing what they've done

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Speaker 2: for thousands of years. When that happens, are going to

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Speaker 2: the precious metals because they understand them, and they'll get

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Speaker 2: to bitcoin. They're just not there yet, excuse me. And

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Speaker 2: so that tells me that, you know, faith in the

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Speaker 2: currency is being lost. And yet the body market has

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Speaker 2: kind of been relatively calm, which is surprising to me,

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Speaker 2: to be frank, but I you know, it hasn't been

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Speaker 2: calm everywhere. It's not calm in Japan. The Japanese tenure

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Speaker 2: looks like a rocket Waunus and so and I think

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Speaker 2: the US tenure might follow, partly depending upon what the

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Speaker 2: Pederal Reserve does. But my sense is that as people

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Speaker 2: wake up to the fact that we're never going back

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Speaker 2: to a balanced budget, you know. I mean, the most

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Speaker 2: recent thing that Trump proposed was that, you know, as

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Speaker 2: we all know, he's now kind of gotten more militarily

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Speaker 2: aggressive with this, with this Monroe like you know, Monroe

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Speaker 2: doctrine like policy, and he's talked about taking the you know,

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Speaker 2: the defense budget from one trillion to one point five

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Speaker 2: showing where we're going to find that extra five hundred

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Speaker 2: you know billion dollars. I mean, it's just in Minnesota,

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Speaker 2: you know, right all yet that's a good that's a

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Speaker 2: good point. And so I think it's you know, at

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Speaker 2: some point point in time, you know, the bond market

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Speaker 2: in in my estimation, the bond market is just going

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Speaker 2: to revolt and it's going to say, let me get

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Speaker 2: this straight. I mean Trump in one ofwets, one of

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Speaker 2: Trump's tweets, he mentioned that he thought we could have

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Speaker 2: fifteen twenty twenty five percent GDP growth. Now, let's be realistic.

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Speaker 2: There is absolutely no way you can have that kind

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Speaker 2: of GDP growth without having very high rates of inflation.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we're not going to grow the goods and

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Speaker 2: services in this this country twenty percent in one year.

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Speaker 2: But if you have prices go up fifteen percent, maybe

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Speaker 2: you can get five percent GDP growth. And so you know,

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Speaker 2: it's it's what's being dubbed, you know, the run it

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Speaker 2: hot strategy, the Trump run it hot strategy and try

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Speaker 2: and grow our way out. You know of this of

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Speaker 2: this mess, and you know that can happen. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we could. You know, the employment will stay up, you know,

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Speaker 2: the stock market will roar it, it'll be kind of

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Speaker 2: a crack up boom, and we can go in that direction.

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Speaker 2: But boy, that direction is extremely inflationary, and of course

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Speaker 2: bonds don't like inflation. So you know, I think what

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Speaker 2: I think if we if it becomes clear that new

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Speaker 2: chairman is going to accommodate it, and we're going to

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Speaker 2: go down that path, you know, and we'll know that

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Speaker 2: soon soon enough, in May. Then, I think what you're

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Speaker 2: going to see is is the ten year is going

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Speaker 2: to start trending towards five or six percent. And you know,

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Speaker 2: we already have Steven Moran, who's a FED board member now,

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Speaker 2: he was the chairman of Penncil of League and Advisors.

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Speaker 2: When he was being vetted for that seat, he made

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Speaker 2: a statement that said something along the lines of, you know,

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Speaker 2: it may be necessary for the FED and tread the

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Speaker 2: Treasury to step in at some point and put a

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Speaker 2: cap on yields. Well, that's just yield curve control, and

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Speaker 2: yield curve control. The way you do that, how do

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Speaker 2: you put a cap on yields? You agree to buy

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Speaker 2: all the bonds that aren't being bought by somebody else

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Speaker 2: at the lower price that nobody wants them at. And

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Speaker 2: how do you do that You grow your FED balance sheet.

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Speaker 2: Well what's that called. That's called the big print. And

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Speaker 2: so so in my estimation, you know, there's a pretty

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Speaker 2: high probability that that's coming in the next you know,

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Speaker 2: six months, twelve months at the latest. So I mean,

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Speaker 2: I can't guarante that I could be wrong, but it

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Speaker 2: feels to me like, that's that's what's most likely to

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Speaker 2: occur and break. And you know there are some out

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Speaker 2: there who said, well, hang on a second, you need

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Speaker 2: for something to really break in a deflationary bust in

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Speaker 2: order to have the big print, and I'm sympathetic to

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Speaker 2: that view. I kind of rate it at thirty five percent.

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Speaker 2: And that's why guys like Growman and others have said,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think bigcoin's going lower before it goes higher.

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Speaker 2: And it could. I mean, I like I said, I

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Speaker 2: rate that as a thirty five percent probability. But my

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Speaker 2: you know, my belief, my personal belief is we're going

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Speaker 2: to skip that step and go right to the big

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Speaker 2: print kind of because you have to. And it also

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Speaker 2: ties in Mark to as I'm sure you're aware, just

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Speaker 2: the politics of the situation. We've got election coming up

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Speaker 2: this fall. He doesn't want to lose. I mean, he's

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Speaker 2: throwing spaghetti on the wall. In terms of ideas, I'm

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Speaker 2: mean cap on interest rates, on you know, credit card rates.

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Speaker 2: You know, this morning he floated the notion of making

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Speaker 2: the AI people pay for the electrical higher electrical cross

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not I'm not saying these are bad ideas.

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Speaker 2: Arguably they're pretty interesting ideas, but you know, they're going

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Speaker 2: to do everything they can to maintain Congress in this fall.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I think what they're trying to figure

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Speaker 2: out is how do we do this big print, you know,

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Speaker 2: and keep things going so that we can win, you know,

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Speaker 2: in the fall and then hopefully the inflation doesn't come

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Speaker 2: until after that. And they may be right. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if you think about the COVID example, we printed a

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Speaker 2: ton of money, it took a little while for the

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Speaker 2: inflation to show up, right, Yeah, there's a lag between

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Speaker 2: you know, the stimulus and the I want to ask you.

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Speaker 1: I want to ask you about that specifically, but I

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Speaker 1: want to go back just for a second. So you

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Speaker 1: said the big print could come in the next twelve

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Speaker 1: to eighteen months. Now I wasn't. I wasn't exactly sure.

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Speaker 1: So I want to ask you to clarify this. You

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Speaker 1: talked about, you know, skipping the skipping the dip, the

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Speaker 1: deflationary crash to the print and going straight to the print.

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Speaker 1: And you talked about the need for the FED to

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Speaker 1: buy the long end of the curve or or any

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Speaker 1: part of the curve to keep rates suppressed. So I'm

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Speaker 1: just curious what could happen the next twelve to eighteen months.

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Speaker 1: Is that the FED starts doing yield curve control or

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Speaker 1: is it the big print or are those the same?

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Speaker 2: They're really a seting that really other said the yield

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Speaker 2: curve control is the big print because the way, you know,

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Speaker 2: it's what they did after World War Two. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the way you hold the interest rates down is you

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Speaker 2: stand ready to buy bonds and put them on your

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Speaker 2: balance sheet. And by the way, this has already started.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we didn't discuss this, but you know, and

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Speaker 2: I and it was interesting to me the way the

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Speaker 2: FED really tried to downplay it, and they're like, ah,

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Speaker 2: this is no big deal. But if you noticed, you know,

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Speaker 2: at the October meeting they stopped the quantitative titaning, they

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Speaker 2: stopped balance heat shrinkage of December first. Yeah, and then

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Speaker 2: on the December meeting they came in and said, you know,

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Speaker 2: and they floated some trial balloons and they came in

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Speaker 2: and they said, we're going to now buy forty billion.

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Speaker 2: But don't worry. It's not quie, it's not printing money.

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Speaker 2: We're going to call it reserve management. And you know,

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Speaker 2: let's let's not get a kidder. We all know it

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Speaker 2: is printing money. I mean, it's just you know, it's

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Speaker 2: a smaller amount, and you know it's it's funny. Lynn

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Speaker 2: and I have bandied back and forth on Twitter a

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Speaker 2: little bit, I mean, and she's kind of like, well,

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Speaker 2: you know, forty billion a month is a gradual print,

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Speaker 2: And she's right. I mean, four hundred and eighty billion

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Speaker 2: a year is not trillions like we printed in COVID,

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Speaker 2: But you know it's I mean, you start off at

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Speaker 2: forty and then the next thing, you know, you're at eighty,

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Speaker 2: and yeah, can it can get larger? Right? Well?

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Speaker 1: The problem is that it it's like a flywheel almost

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Speaker 1: where it's like maybe a crack in the dam where

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Speaker 1: it's like the big print causes less trust in the

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Speaker 1: bond market, which means there's less buyers, which means they

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Speaker 1: have to print more, which means there's less trust, which

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Speaker 1: means there's less buyers, which means there's well, they have

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Speaker 1: to pend.

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Speaker 2: More exactly right, And that's what you're describing as Gresham's law,

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Speaker 2: or gradually then suddenly, I mean, you know, if everybody

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Speaker 2: loses faith, the doom loop in this current city you

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Speaker 2: know then look out. I mean, and people say to me, well, gosh,

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Speaker 2: you know, a could I buy silver here? I can't

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Speaker 2: buy silver, can't buy gold, or too expensive. I can't

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Speaker 2: buy bigcoin, it's too expensive. You bought it cheaper. And

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Speaker 2: how they say how high they go? And I say,

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Speaker 2: there's no limit to how these hi these things can

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Speaker 2: go because there's no limit to how much the FIAC

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Speaker 2: currency can depreciate. I mean, you know, the FIAT could

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Speaker 2: go to zero. I mean, we could have hyperinflation. Now

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Speaker 2: that's not my base case. I don't think we're I

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Speaker 2: don't think we're anywhere close to that now, and it

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Speaker 2: would take a lot of stupid policy errors to get

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Speaker 2: to that. But it's now, you know, it's entered the room,

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Speaker 2: the discussion of runaway inflation.

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Speaker 1: Well let's let's let's let's put math to that for

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Speaker 1: a second. So I did a show with Bology at

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Speaker 1: Biquin Asia, and man, he's so smart, and you know

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Speaker 1: he talks about hyperinflation. But first of all, the actual

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Speaker 1: definition of hyperinflation is like unrealistic, like fifty per month,

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Speaker 1: month over month over month, like no one's ever getting

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Speaker 1: to that.

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Speaker 2: Hyperinflation is total currency failure. I mean, right, you can

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Speaker 2: have really high annual inflation without hyper inflation. I mean

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Speaker 2: Turkey has it.

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Speaker 1: Right, so like, so like, the actual hurdle rate for

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Speaker 1: hyper inflation is so high, and we see currencies blowing up.

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Speaker 1: We've seen dozens of currencies blow up, but they weren't

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Speaker 1: technically hyper inflation. So I think, first of all, that

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Speaker 1: number is like unachievable, and maybe we need to recalibrate

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Speaker 1: what that hyperinflation number is. And that's sort of what

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Speaker 1: Bologie was talking about. Now, I sort of did some math.

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Speaker 1: Gold just hit forty six hundred dollars an ounce, which

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Speaker 1: is unbelievable. I'm sure you're blown away by that number.

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Speaker 1: In nineteen thirteen, before the FED was created, it was

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Speaker 1: twenty dollars an ounce, so one dollar represented one twentieth

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Speaker 1: of announce Today it's one forty six hundredth of announce

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Speaker 1: And so that over the one hundred and thirteen years

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Speaker 1: or whatever that is, is five percent a year. But

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Speaker 1: if you look at it, if you look at it

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Speaker 1: since twenty twenty, it's twenty percent a year. And so

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Speaker 1: it's not just linear, right, It starts to move.

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Speaker 2: Exponentially getting worse yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: Right, exactly now. I wanted to go back to what

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Speaker 1: you said about, you know, the maneuvering of the Trump administration.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot to unpack there. I saw Howard Lutnek

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Speaker 1: came out and said he thinks that GDP growth is

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Speaker 1: about five and a half percent now already could be.

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Speaker 1: And you know, if we get a lot of on shoring,

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Speaker 1: a lot more domestic manufacturing, mining, refining, et cetera, et cetera,

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Speaker 1: it could shift the GDP pretty dramatically because really GP

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Speaker 1: measures the domestic growth, and so if you get if

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Speaker 1: you substitute a lot of foreign stuff for domestic stuff,

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Speaker 1: that shifts the number pretty quickly. But I want to

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Speaker 1: talk specifically about you mentioned sort of the Republicans and

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Speaker 1: wanting to sort of run things hot before the midterms

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Speaker 1: but not having inflation creep, and I would say, I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, certainly there is the mid derm, and that's

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Speaker 1: that's a dangerous shoot. That's a dangerous topic coming up,

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Speaker 1: or I should say, a vote coming up. But I

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Speaker 1: think Trump is probably looking at his whole term. You know,

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Speaker 1: he wants to make America great again, and I think

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Speaker 1: he's on that mission. But what I'd say is as

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Speaker 1: far as inflation is showing up. So you mentioned twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: but if we go back to two thousand and eight, right,

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Speaker 1: that's when we really saw Q come on hot and heavy,

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Speaker 1: and QUE came on really hot and heavy. The fedexpan

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Speaker 1: of their balance sheet in a massive way, and per

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Speaker 1: the technical economist view, there was no inflation and they

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Speaker 1: couldn't get inflation for a decade.

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Speaker 2: Even well, there wasn't any There wasn't any consumer inflation.

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Speaker 2: There was a huge asset in foot.

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Speaker 1: But they don't call that inflation. That's technically appreciation.

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Speaker 2: Right, But that's correct. I mean there was there was

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Speaker 2: monetary inflation that didn't show up in consumer prices because

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Speaker 2: they sterilized it and changed the rules. I'm paying right

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Speaker 2: interest and access reserve. You know where we are, market,

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Speaker 2: I think it might be a good time to take

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Speaker 2: a look at the charge.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, please, let's put it up four. Yeah, I'd love

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Speaker 1: to see it.

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Speaker 2: Let's do this.

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Speaker 1: I agree that that's semantics, and I what I call

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Speaker 1: it is factually correct, but intellectually dishonest to say there

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Speaker 1: was no inflation, like, come on, like my house went

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Speaker 1: up and I'm a consumer so my house paying went up.

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Speaker 1: But the reason why I bring that up is because

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Speaker 1: if we're talking about the people revolting because inflation gets

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Speaker 1: so hot, it didn't get it didn't get in, It

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Speaker 1: didn't get too hot for the average person on consumer.

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Speaker 2: Process, I mean and well, and and uh yeah, that's.

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Speaker 1: Right, it got it got, it got hot on asset prices.

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Speaker 1: But we like asset prices going up as long as

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Speaker 1: my cost of lift doesn't go up. And so two

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Speaker 1: thousand and eight was sort of a it was an

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Speaker 1: analog to show us that we obviously the QE happened.

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Speaker 1: We got lots of asset inflation or appreciation, but consumers

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Speaker 1: didn't really take the hit. And unlike twenty twenty when

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Speaker 1: they dropped the stemmy, every day we see headlines about

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Speaker 1: inflation and dead and diminishing control over our own money.

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Speaker 1: That's why I always come back to bitcoin, because it's

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00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,320
Speaker 1: built for generations, it's built for legacy. But protecting your

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Speaker 1: Because your bitcoin isn't just for life, it's for generations.

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Speaker 2: Correct, correct, Yeah, no, that's exactly right. I mean, but

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Speaker 2: they did you know, they did suffer if they if

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Speaker 2: they weren't in a position to own assets, I mean

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Speaker 2: everyone who was owning I mean housing prices want to

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Speaker 2: continue to go up, and everyone who owned assets benefited

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Speaker 2: at the expense of those who didn't. But this chart,

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Speaker 2: I think is informative and helpful, and it describes what

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Speaker 2: you just described to me. So the beginning, you know,

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Speaker 2: just to read it out loud, the beginning point of

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Speaker 2: this charge nineteen sixty and the endpoint is right now.

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Speaker 2: And you can see the and the black line is

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Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which is a proxy for

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Speaker 2: reserves in the system, which then by the banks get

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Speaker 2: turned into M two as the banks make loans. And

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Speaker 2: you can see that, you know, and the gray line

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Speaker 2: is kind of an exponential curve. It's an exponential growth curve,

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Speaker 2: just you know, based on compounding it, you know, like

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Speaker 2: not eight percent a year, seven eight percent a year,

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Speaker 2: I think you're based off of my supply growth. And

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Speaker 2: what happened. You can see that whenever the money the bank,

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Speaker 2: you know, reserves in the system got below the the

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Speaker 2: you know, the curve, something something broke and they had

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Speaker 2: to print money. And so you can see, you know,

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Speaker 2: I wrote the book I called it the Big Print.

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Speaker 2: Well there really have been two big prints already. I'm

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Speaker 2: talking about a third, right, So the first one occurred,

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Speaker 2: you know, in two thousand and eight, when you know,

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Speaker 2: the introduces are up, and they introduced QI and as

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Speaker 2: you point out, it was not inflationary at the consumer level,

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Speaker 2: but you can notice how much money supply grew and

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Speaker 2: you can know how much you know, their their balance

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Speaker 2: sheet grew. And then of course they started to try

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Speaker 2: and tighten in twenty nineteen, you know, Yelling did it,

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Speaker 2: and then Pouel followed through on it. But of course

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Speaker 2: we had the REPO blowout and it became very clear

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Speaker 2: that wasn't going to work, and then COVID hit YEP,

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Speaker 2: and so then we had the second big Print, and

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Speaker 2: of course you know that drove inflation, consumer inflation, and

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Speaker 2: they set out stimmys and did a lot of other

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Speaker 2: stuff that you know, they couldn't sanitize that, and they

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Speaker 2: tried to tell us it was transitory, because they it wasn't.

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Speaker 2: And they should have known that because M two one

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Speaker 2: up forty percent. Anyway, they you know, Powell then tightened

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Speaker 2: up and they brought things back down. They shrunk the

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Speaker 2: balance sheet for a while. But notice where we are

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Speaker 2: right now. The black line has crossed that exponential growth

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Speaker 2: curve again. Yep, the last two times the black line

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Speaker 2: crossed the exponential growth curve. Guess what big print and

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Speaker 2: all this is really doing, Mark, is it's describing the

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Speaker 2: fact that in a debt based system where you have

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Speaker 2: to grow debt to continue, you have to. It's like

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Speaker 2: a shark. You got to continually keep moving forward, growing

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Speaker 2: debt and getting bigger, or else the thing dies. And

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Speaker 2: and by the thing dying, I mean you've got to

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Speaker 2: print more money and introduce more money into the system

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Speaker 2: or else the debt you know, as we know, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I could also show charts that show you know, US

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Speaker 2: federal government deficits, you know, debt, and it's just it's

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Speaker 2: skyrocketed and that and that skyrocketing is getting faster and larger,

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Speaker 2: you know, so that we're now you know, I mean,

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Speaker 2: every I was it, every ninety days we have another

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Speaker 2: trillion of debt or something. I mean, it's just it's crazy.

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Speaker 2: And so the only way to keep the thing from

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Speaker 2: collapsing is to keep printing more money so that people

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Speaker 2: have the money to pay the interest charges on the debt.

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Speaker 2: And of course, you know, you could say, well, no,

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Speaker 2: we're not going to do that anymore, and you know

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Speaker 2: you would get nineteen twenty nine. I mean, that's one

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Speaker 2: way of dealing with one of these debt bubbles is

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Speaker 2: you know, you let things collapse and the debt goes

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Speaker 2: bad and everyone goes bankrupt and you have, you know,

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Speaker 2: a great depression. But as we know, you know, that's

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Speaker 2: a very politically unpopular choice. And so the choice that

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Speaker 2: they face is do that, let that happen, or you know,

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Speaker 2: keep printing money through some form or fashion, recognizing that

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Speaker 2: it'll be inflationary. But we'll let the next guy deal

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Speaker 2: with that, right, And so so that's why to me,

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Speaker 2: I look at this chart, and and I wrote the book,

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Speaker 2: and I don't really think what I wrote is controversial.

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Speaker 2: I actually think it's kind of a mathematical equation, almost

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Speaker 2: like a fact, not an opinion. Now, you know, the timing, Okay,

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Speaker 2: you know, I could be dead wrong about the timing.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they might kick this can for another five years.

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Speaker 2: I don't think so. I mean I look at that chart,

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Speaker 2: and I think this is happening right now. And and

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Speaker 2: what supports my argument is that they you know what

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Speaker 2: they did in December where they stopped QT and they

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Speaker 2: went back to QE. They don't call it that, but

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Speaker 2: they went back to Q. They didn't want to do that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Paul wants to be vulgar. He

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Speaker 2: wants to tame inflation. They have not met their inflation goal,

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Speaker 2: their target inflation rate, which is stupid. It should be zero,

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Speaker 2: but their target inflation rate is two percent and they're

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Speaker 2: running at two seven to three. And so they didn't

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Speaker 2: want to do what they had to do, you know,

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Speaker 2: in this this past month. But they did it for

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Speaker 2: because of this chart. So that's I got some important

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Speaker 2: to their stand.

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Speaker 1: That's a great charge. Yeah, Terry, I appreciate you sharing that.

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Speaker 1: I would guess by twenty thirty that is way higher

428
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 1: than where we have it, right, Well.

429
00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 2: That's right. So yeah, so the balance sheet, as you

430
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 2: can see, it hit like eight or nine nine trillion,

431
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 2: and now it's back down. I think it's about six

432
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 2: and a half today. And I said, I think in

433
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 2: the book, and I've said it publicly in other places,

434
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 2: you know, I think in the next run that's going

435
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 2: to fifteen or something or twenty. I mean, it's it's

436
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 2: it's going to take a lot. And and so I think,

437
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 2: to me, the interesting question we were talking about this pre

438
00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 2: show is you know, is that going to is that

439
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 2: going to just happen organically or do we need to

440
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:41,160
Speaker 2: have something break? So in eight something broke, right, I mean,

441
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 2: all of the housing market and Wall Street was going

442
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 2: to go under because of all the leverage, and so

443
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 2: it was very clear they had to save the system

444
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,639
Speaker 2: and they did. And then in COVID something broke and

445
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 2: they did the same thing. So the question is does

446
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 2: the next one require quote unquote something breaking, you know,

447
00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,120
Speaker 2: or can we just kind of slouch into it and

448
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 2: we just start printing. I don't know.

449
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: I mean, you could easily argue that something did break.

450
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,359
Speaker 1: I mean, we are breaking right now, and that's why.

451
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 2: Well that's the precious metals right.

452
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 1: Well, I mean you made the case just now that

453
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 1: the Fed didn't want to start QI right now. They

454
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 1: haven't met their inflation target. They didn't want to, but

455
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 1: their hand is forced into it. So arguably something has

456
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 1: broken that has first.

457
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 2: Arguably it started, but as Linz says, it is a

458
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 2: gradual print. I mean forty billion a month for eighty

459
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 2: a year. I mean that's that's mouse nuts in today's world.

460
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, if they I mean to get

461
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 2: to you know, to get to fifteen trillion, they're gonna

462
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 2: have to print trillions again. I mean, it's also interesting

463
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:36,880
Speaker 2: if you look at those last two prints. I mean,

464
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 2: in the first one, I mean, it took Bernaki like

465
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 2: three years, three and a half years to print three trillion.

466
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,080
Speaker 2: It took Powell, like, you know, eighteen months to print

467
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 2: five trillion.

468
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:49,879
Speaker 1: It is pretty amazing. And kudos to them that they

469
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 1: were able to delever the balance sheet as much as

470
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 1: they have without the entire system. Yeah, and completely I agree.

471
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 2: I never thought they could do it.

472
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: I never thought that, and it did give them a

473
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 1: lot of room now to maneuver. And also what it

474
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 1: demonstrated to me, Larry, is a lot of times we hear,

475
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,360
Speaker 1: you know, from a geopolitical ends, like what if our enemies,

476
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 1: you know, what if China were to dump all their

477
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 1: treasuries in the market, or what about Japan, Japan's gonna

478
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 1: blow up and they're going to be forced to sell

479
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 1: all the like, man, we just we could absorb that.

480
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 1: I mean, look what just happened. They just dumped three

481
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 1: trillion dollars Like what Japan hass peanuts compared to that? Right,

482
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 1: So it showed me I mean, I guess now we

483
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 1: don't really have the room we had before. But it

484
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 1: also showed me a little bit more resilience in the

485
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,200
Speaker 1: system that I had than I hadn't expected.

486
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 2: I think that's right. I mean, it's look, the US

487
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 2: isn't going to go away tomorrow, and we still are

488
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 2: the leading country, and we still do have the reserve currency,

489
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 2: all the status of that currency it somewhat under attack.

490
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 2: I mean, and you know, I think the thing that's

491
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 2: important here Mark too is you see this present in

492
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 2: the way he's behaving, some of the things he's doing.

493
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,719
Speaker 2: And I mean, these guys really they do realize that

494
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 2: this is existential and that the fate of the country

495
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: hangs on the balance and this stuff, and so you know,

496
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,199
Speaker 2: and World War two is extal stential. I mean, you know,

497
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 2: we we had to you know, gear up. I mean,

498
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,199
Speaker 2: and they you know, they stopped auto production, they, I mean,

499
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 2: all the things they did to beat fascism. Yeah, you know,

500
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 2: those will be pulled out and they will say, you know,

501
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 2: look and people scream, hey, you're printing money again. You're

502
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 2: doing this, You're doing that, and say it's it's we

503
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 2: got to do it. I mean, this is the only

504
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 2: way we can keep the country alive. Yeah, and you know,

505
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: and and but and that's fine, I mean, I get it.

506
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 2: I'm not suggesting we let the country die or we

507
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 2: you know, we we let everything collapse. But here's the thing.

508
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 2: If we do it, it will be inflation. And people

509
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 2: haven't studied the World War two period that carefully. There

510
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 2: was it was enormous inflation post World War Two. I

511
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 2: mean there were some months in the fifty forties and

512
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 2: fifties where inflation was like fifteen twenty percent a year.

513
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 2: And we grew out of that one fortunately, because it

514
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 2: was it was different demographics and you know, and we

515
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 2: had an export based economy and we were the only

516
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 2: country that was really still operable. I mean, Japan was rubble,

517
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 2: and you know, most of the year of Germany was rubble,

518
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 2: and you know, England had been attacked. I mean, there

519
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 2: were we were the leading country at the time. I mean,

520
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 2: that's not the case today. You know, we were, we

521
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 2: were one fifth of the global economy and so.

522
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 1: But but but it's a good analog to bring up, Larry,

523
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:13,400
Speaker 1: because how did the US get out of their extremely

524
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 1: high debt to GDP ratio after that or during that process.

525
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 2: It was it was yield curve control. They had yield

526
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 2: curve control from forty two to fifty one. You know,

527
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: the short note was was pegged at three eighths and

528
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 2: the long note was pegged at two point five. And

529
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 2: we had all the gis come back, and.

530
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: We had financially had financial repression, financial financial repression.

531
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 2: And bondholders got screwed, right, I mean, you know, and

532
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 2: but we had a much more you know, we had

533
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 2: a much more patriotic and willing to suffer public. I mean,

534
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 2: you know, as you know, in the war, everything was rationed,

535
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,479
Speaker 2: and you know, you couldn't buy a new automobiles who

536
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 2: weren't making and we're making tanks, and and you know,

537
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 2: they were telling you to buy liberty bonds, which you

538
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,679
Speaker 2: know a lot of patriots did because they wanted to

539
00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: support the country. But the fact of the matter is

540
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 2: those liverty bondholders got totally screwed, you know, getting three

541
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 2: percent interest in this huge inflation.

542
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 1: So I just think that's important because that's they let

543
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 1: it run hot. So inflation ran hot, and they kept

544
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 1: bond yields down and they liquidated the bondholders. So again

545
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: the IMF and the BS put out a white paper

546
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 1: called the Liquidation of Government Debt where that was in

547
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: twenty fifteen. They recommend financial repression. They've done it before.

548
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: And so if the Trump administration or whoever comes next,

549
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 1: lets it run hot, inflation rips. I mean, the money

550
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 1: supply is going up by ten percent a year right now.

551
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: We just gold's even showing higher, and they keep bondihilds

552
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 1: low and there we go.

553
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 2: And so I mean, and so there's good news bad news.

554
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 2: I mean, the good news is probably unemployment doesn't go

555
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: up much. People have jobs. I mean, if you do

556
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 2: this right too, with the inflation, as Grumman points out,

557
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 2: you know, you let wages go up a lot. And

558
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 2: so you know, if inflation's going up a lot, but

559
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 2: everybody's working and the wages are going up as well,

560
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 2: I mean, you know that. Well, it was really cruel

561
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 2: about you know, this last couple of cycles was that

562
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: assets went up in value and inflation went up a lot,

563
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 2: but nobody's wages moved right, and so everybody felt like,

564
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: good God, I don't make any you know, everything I

565
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 2: buy costs more, but I'm not making anymore. And you know,

566
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 2: and so that's a piece of it as well. And

567
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 2: that's frankly, that's part of why I think they're trying

568
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 2: to be, you know, so hard on immigration and everything else.

569
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 2: They want like Americans to be able to demand higher

570
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 2: wages because there's nobody who's willing to do it for

571
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 2: less money.

572
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 1: Well, there's certainly a lot more to itin that conversation.

573
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 1: I don't I don't want to go down that rabbit

574
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: hole area.

575
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 2: But it's a dangerous area to go into it.

576
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: But I will make the I will make the point

577
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 1: that you know, in Minnesota, for example, in the Somali situation,

578
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 1: seventy eight percent of them that have been here for

579
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 1: more than ten years are still on welfare. Yeah, oh

580
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: that And so we can talk about taking jobs, we

581
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 1: could talk about safety secure, we can talk about all

582
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 1: the different facets within that, but we can't have open

583
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 1: border thing when we have a welfare state. So it'd

584
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 1: be one thing to open up the borders and let

585
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 1: everybody come here if they're going to come work and

586
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,959
Speaker 1: contribute to GDP, but we can't have open borders that

587
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: puts people on welfare. And that's exactly what we have

588
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 1: going on. And so that's the opposite. Not only are

589
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 1: they taking well, I guess they're not taking jobs because

590
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: they're not working, but they're taking harder and taxpayers money.

591
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 1: And so that's the problem. I want to get into

592
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:25,640
Speaker 1: a little bit of the politics of this, Larry, because

593
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: you made the case that it's inevitable that sort of

594
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: like after World War Two, the government is going to

595
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 1: have to print the money. Sometimes you just have to

596
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 1: for the greater good of them, right. So the question

597
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 1: that I want to ask about that is right now

598
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 1: in the news. You already mentioned that Trump is going

599
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 1: to replace FED chair Powell, but we have in the

600
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 1: news that Powell and Trump are fighting. Apparently the DOJ

601
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 1: you know, is trying to investigate. I don't know if

602
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 1: the investigation the right word, but you know they're looking

603
00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,360
Speaker 1: into the a billion dollars over budget of tax pay money.

604
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 1: It's a pretty big deal. But a lot of people

605
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: are now questioning the FED independence. If the president is

606
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 1: going to be able to go after the FED chair

607
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: and what about the FED independence? And so my question

608
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: specifically is Larry, your thoughts around FED independence specifically when

609
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 1: you think about the government after World War iwur today,

610
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 1: the government needs to think long term and has imperatives,

611
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 1: and the FED should support the government in a sense,

612
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: So how independent should they really be?

613
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 2: Well, I think that's I think you raised a really

614
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 2: great question. I mean, let's go back to first principles.

615
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 2: I don't even think the FED should.

616
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: I agree, I agree, sure, So.

617
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 2: So Omi, let's let's start there. But and what your

618
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 2: what you just said is a real really echoes with

619
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 2: what Scott Bescent has been saying, which is monetary policy.

620
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 2: You know, nation state monetary policy should be fit, should

621
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 2: fit in with with overall geopolitical strategy and policy. And

622
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 2: so you know, this whole and the whole independent Fed

623
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 2: canard is kind of kind of stupid. I mean, it's

624
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 2: it's like I mean, you know, and it makes it

625
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 2: difficult for I mean, it's it's very let me say

626
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 2: it a different way. It's very good for the FED,

627
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 2: it's very good for Wall Street, it's very good for contillionaires,

628
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 2: it's very good for lenders. It's very bad for the

629
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: working man, it's very bad for industry, it's very bad

630
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 2: for most of the country. And so you kind of

631
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 2: got to make a decision which side of that fence

632
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 2: do you want to beyond? Do you want to you know,

633
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,479
Speaker 2: do you want to have a productive well you know,

634
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 2: middle class that's well paid and it's all working, or

635
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 2: do you you know, and and you know things are fair,

636
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 2: or do you want to have this you know, US

637
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 2: dollar reserve status where you know, the Wall Street people win,

638
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 2: the Washington elites win, the Federal Reserve economists win, and

639
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 2: the rest of us suffer. And that's you know, and

640
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 2: so you know, I mean, but sent even said it

641
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 2: when he came into office. He said, look, you know

642
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 2: it's time for you know, Wall Street's been doing fine.

643
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 2: It's time for main Street to start winning. And so,

644
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 2: you know, I think that this is part of the

645
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 2: policy that they're trying to pursue. And and as you see,

646
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 2: you know, as we see you know, with Venezuela and

647
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 2: Greenland and everything else. I mean, it's very clear this

648
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 2: this administration that they're thinking very big and they're saying

649
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: to themselves, all right, you know, China really got to

650
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 2: jump on us. We let them run in our sandbox

651
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 2: for a bunch of years. We're behind, you know, we're

652
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 2: in a terrible position in terms of critical minerals as

653
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 2: we know that, and they just I mean, I think

654
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 2: It's fascinating the way they put a bunch of money

655
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 2: into MP materials. They put a bunch of money into

656
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 2: this Korean zinc smelter that's being built, and you know,

657
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 2: they're trying very hard to reverse you know, the dead

658
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,719
Speaker 2: end road that we've walked down, which is we got

659
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 2: we got mark. I mean, we got so financialized that

660
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 2: you know it, and it's not working. I mean, this

661
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 2: Grumman does a great job point it south. I mean,

662
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 2: you can't print silver, you know what I mean. It's like, yeah,

663
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 2: I'll send you a silver certificate. Now that's not gonna work.

664
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 2: I mean, I actually need silver to put in my Tesla.

665
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 2: I needed to put in my solar panel. You know.

666
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 2: And we we we kind of always thought this paper

667
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: and this financialization, you know, we got the world by

668
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 2: the balls because we control the whole Wall Street would

669
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 2: get to control the paper market. And what what China

670
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: and the bricks and everybody else they're all saying is yeah,

671
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 2: that's nice, but you know what, at the end of

672
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 2: the day, it's materials and shit that counts. It's not paper. Yeah,

673
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 2: And you know, Tindale, there's been there's been a bunch

674
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:36,959
Speaker 2: of people pointing this out and Blasi's done a good

675
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 2: job of pointing this out right, that you know, the

676
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:44,479
Speaker 2: world is changing from a financially driven world controlled by

677
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 2: King Dollar, Wall Street and the Federal Reserve to a

678
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 2: you know, proof of work, proof of stuff world where

679
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 2: you know, if if you don't, I mean, yeah, great,

680
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 2: sell me, sell me a piece of paper paper silver.

681
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 2: I know it's worth nothing. Yeah, I want the real metal.

682
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: And that's what's going on in the silver market right now.

683
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 2: Everyone's demanding the real metal. The deliveries in the silver

684
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 2: market are through the roof. It's really something to behold. Yeah,

685
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 2: and you know, so it's it's it's a big, big

686
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 2: secular shift. And so it's very easy for somebody to

687
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 2: look at the silver pricing, Oh this is a bubble

688
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 2: and just can't burst. And I look at it the

689
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 2: other way and I'm like, no, this is the beginning

690
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 2: of a reset that could have decades to run, A

691
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 2: certainly years and arguably decades to run.

692
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: Yeah.

693
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 2: So's it's a very interesting times.

694
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to talk more about the gold and

695
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: silver reset, and of course wore bitcoin ties into this,

696
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 1: but to kind of add on to the point that

697
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: you're making and and Gramman's commentary. I saw him make

698
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 1: a reply to somebody on on X the other day,

699
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 1: and he said something like it was about like the

700
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: Greek Athenians versus whatever, and he's like, at no point

701
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: did the king think he should off offshore the sword

702
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: making to their opponents or whatever. Right, and when you

703
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: look at like, you know, to your point about us,

704
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 1: just you know, financialization and offshore and all those jobs,

705
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: the greatest stupidity part of all that. I mean, you

706
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,239
Speaker 1: can talk about the medicines and all that, but like

707
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 1: our military stuff, we literally had something We're asking our

708
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: adversary to make our swords for us, right, Like it

709
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 1: it's pretty insane when you break that down. And that's

710
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 1: why you know, it's like none of this is good.

711
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: And so to your point in the FED, of course,

712
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: but like sometimes when you're in a bad situation, there's

713
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 1: just really no good answer. And so like I'm certainly

714
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 1: not for bigger government at all, and nor am I

715
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: for them spending more money. But man, we've got ourselves

716
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 1: into a pretty bad situation and we need energy right now,

717
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: like we need it in a bad way. We need

718
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,400
Speaker 1: rare elements like right now in a bad way. We

719
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 1: need to bring some domestic manufacturing back, and this is

720
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: a critical right because it's national security, and it's like

721
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 1: the only weird way to do that is one, repeal

722
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: regulations to make it easier to walk, and then number two,

723
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 1: get some money into that sector. And I wish it

724
00:33:58,280 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 1: wasn't the case, and I'd love to end the FED,

725
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 1: and I want to stop printing money, and I want

726
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 1: to go to a bitcoin standard. But like, man, we're

727
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: in a mess right now.

728
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 2: Well we are, we are, and and but there is

729
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:10,359
Speaker 2: there actually, you know, it's not all bleak, and there

730
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 2: is a way out of it, and that is, you know,

731
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 2: we run it hot with the notion that at the

732
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 2: end of running it hot, we're going to convert back

733
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 2: to sound money. I mean, the fundamental problem that's gotten

734
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 2: us into this whole mess is fiat money, and fiat

735
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 2: money is in the process of failing. And you know,

736
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,479
Speaker 2: it's just it's just that simple that if we could

737
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 2: go back to a sound money standard, things would balance

738
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 2: themselves out. And humans are productive, and you know, we

739
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 2: would see the benefits of all this technology flow evenly

740
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: to everybody, not just to the billionaires.

741
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 1: And so the beautiful thing is as both of us

742
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: are in near goal. You know, we're sound money advocates

743
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: and we're bitcoinners. The beautiful part is that while we

744
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: dream of a world one day that runs on that standard,

745
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 1: you and I can just run on that standard today.

746
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 1: We don't have to wait.

747
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:58,320
Speaker 2: For that, right, That's right. I mean at an individual level,

748
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 2: you can run on a sound money standard. And by

749
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 2: the way, in doing so, you we protect yourself from

750
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 2: this madness that's that's occurring. But yeah, yes, but I

751
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 2: want to jump.

752
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 1: I want to jump to the gold market for a minute. Obviously,

753
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: you have a deep, deep, deep experience. You run a

754
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 1: gold fund also partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, which

755
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: we work together with there so bigcoin Opportunity Fund, and

756
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 1: you have a gold fund as well, So shouting that out.

757
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 1: We'll link to that in the show notes down below.

758
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 1: But you mentioned gold sound money, and you mentioned bricks currency.

759
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 1: But from what I see shaping up right now, it

760
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 1: looks like bricks is out and there is a new

761
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 1: parallel financial system that's been set up and it's running

762
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: off of gold. But it's not in bricks, it's in

763
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: Hong Kong, and so it looks like China. Right, So,

764
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 1: China's Shanghai Gold Exchange is working with Hong Kong to

765
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 1: build a or has it already built a parallel financial

766
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,399
Speaker 1: system using R and B as liquidity but gold as

767
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 1: the settlement. They have swapped lines with thirty two countries.

768
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: The US is the only country without a swap line.

769
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 1: Countries are already using it. And the more that we

770
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 1: see sanctions happening another twenty five percent for people to

771
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,560
Speaker 1: deal with Iran, all of a sudden, more people are

772
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 1: going to run to that. And is that really what's

773
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 1: driving the gold presser? Or I guess the better question

774
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: for you would be how much do you think the

775
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 1: gold price is being driven by that? Governments will never

776
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 1: stop printing money, so inflation it's not going away.

777
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 2: Now.

778
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 1: If your money's not earning at least ten percent a year,

779
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: you're losing purchasing power.

780
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 2: Now.

781
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 1: That's why I talk about bitcoin. It's the number one

782
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 1: way to beat inflation and secure your future. And the

783
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 1: question I get asked almost every day is where do

784
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 1: you buy your bitcoin? Now? For years, I've personally used

785
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 1: river dot com, and I only take on sponsors that

786
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:50,240
Speaker 1: I use and I trust, and I trust them because

787
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 1: rivers bitcoin only. They have one hundred percent reserve, and

788
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 1: they keep your bitcoin safe in cold storage with no middlemen,

789
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 1: and you can actually talk to a real person, a

790
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 1: US based support, dedicated manager. Now, try getting that peace

791
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 1: of mind from coinbase. Of course you can't now the perks.

792
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 1: If you set up auto buys, you can pay zero

793
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 1: fees plus instead. If you're bank paying you, you know,

794
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,240
Speaker 1: zero point four percent on cash. River pays you three

795
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 1: point seventy five percent on cash paid in bitcoin. So

796
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: if you're ready to build your bitcoin position with confidence,

797
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: go to River dot com slash Mark Moss and get

798
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 1: up to one hundred dollars in bitcoin when you sign up.

799
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 1: Because freedom starts when you own your money, and your

800
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 1: money starts with bitcoin.

801
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 2: I'd say that's got to be seventy percent of it.

802
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 2: I mean I think that I think, what's you know,

803
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 2: what's taking place here? And you know it's hard if

804
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,359
Speaker 2: you don't zoom out and you don't think in kind

805
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 2: of decades, you know, because it's not. I mean, day

806
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 2: to day is hard. You know, things bounce around the lot.

807
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 2: I think what's taking place here is something that you

808
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 2: and I have known for quite some time, which is

809
00:37:56,719 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 2: that there's a real fatal flaw with fiat currency. And

810
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 2: and you know, China and Russia figured this out in

811
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 2: you know, twenty fourteen, they stopped buying our bonds, you know,

812
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,880
Speaker 2: and and then of course we accelerated when we grabbed

813
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 2: the Russian reserves in twenty twenty two. And and you know,

814
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 2: you're now seeing people are just not trusting the dollar

815
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,319
Speaker 2: as a you know, as a store of value. It's

816
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 2: still used in transactions, it's still a payment rail. I mean,

817
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 2: you know, stable coins are used, and it's still you know,

818
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 2: it's still a leading currency. Don't get me wrong. But

819
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 2: as as you and I also both know, there are

820
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 2: two parts of the currency equation. The one is that

821
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 2: you know, the rails and the transactions and the means

822
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 2: of exchange, and the other is a store of value.

823
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 2: And I think what I think what we're seeing is

824
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 2: we're seeing the world very very clearly coming to the

825
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,720
Speaker 2: conclusion that the dollar is no longer a good store

826
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 2: of value. And I think that's really based upon the

827
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 2: way our government has behaved. And and it accelerated in

828
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,720
Speaker 2: this past year. I mean, I think people were hopeful

829
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 2: that with Trump coming in, it would be okay, and

830
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 2: it was a lot of it. As I recall in

831
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,760
Speaker 2: the earlier part of last year twenty twenty five, remember

832
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 2: Dosee was gonna save this. I mean you had Piano

833
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 2: and others saying they're going to balance the budgeteah, And

834
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 2: you know, my view was quick, good luck with that.

835
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 2: And Elon said they could take two trillion out and

836
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,439
Speaker 2: then one trillion out. And look, don't get me wrong,

837
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,880
Speaker 2: I applaud doze and they made some progress, particularly the

838
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 2: USAID fraud. But you know, at the end of the day,

839
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 2: what did it say, you know, a hundred billion, maybe two,

840
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 2: and the big beautiful bill added three or four hundred

841
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 2: and you know, now we've got Trump talking about, you know,

842
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 2: defense going to one five, and I mean it's look,

843
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, politicians with a checkbook

844
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 2: are dangerous. You just can't stop them from spence.

845
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,439
Speaker 1: I believe the Trump admint when I listened to Howard

846
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 1: Luttnik talking about bringing a business lens and how they

847
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 1: do business takeovers and but balance the budget, and I

848
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: believe that Elon could find that that money to cut

849
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:54,839
Speaker 1: out one hundred percent. There was just no appetite for it.

850
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 1: So it was like maybe it was like maybe possible,

851
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 1: but like they got ran out dodge.

852
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 2: Or whatever, right, like they maybe yeah. I mean, I'm

853
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 2: not sure why it didn't happen, but it was interesting.

854
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 2: I mean, Elon's not a stupid man, and you know,

855
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: three months into it, he was kind of threw his

856
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 2: hands up like this is hopeless.

857
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 1: Well because because he got he got you know, ran

858
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 1: out of dodge, right he yea, what was it? What

859
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 1: was it? Just today? It was that in ned ND,

860
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 1: one of the programs they decided to cut funding on

861
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,800
Speaker 1: and now that it got approved three hundred and fifteen

862
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: billion or whatever it was, to send it like there

863
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: was like no appetite for that. So yeah, and and

864
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 1: and really the here's and let me know if you

865
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,439
Speaker 1: agree with this. I was on a podcast earlier today

866
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,760
Speaker 1: and I made the point that in a debt based

867
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 1: monetary system, money is created through debt issuance. And because

868
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 1: money is created through debt issuance, the dollars that are

869
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 1: issued are the liability, and the debt becomes the asset

870
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 1: and the debt, the debt becomes the asset for more debt,

871
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 1: it's collateral. And so then the debt becomes collateral for

872
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 1: more debt, and so then the giant system is sort

873
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 1: of built like a Ponzi scheme, and there is no

874
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 1: extinguishing the debt or paying the debt down, because what

875
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 1: happens is the collateral collapses and it starts to trigger

876
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 1: a collapse. And so the thought of like, are we

877
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 1: ever going to pay off the debt, No, we can't,

878
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 1: it's not design. It's not design that way, we can

879
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 1: bring the debt to GDP ratio down, so agree, we

880
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 1: can bring if the GDP goes up, we can bring

881
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: the ratio back to sixty or eighty or whatever. But

882
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 1: there is no extinguishing it. There is no bringing the

883
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 1: debt down. That's how I see it is.

884
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 2: You're absolutely correct, and it's a great insight because there's

885
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 2: no final settlement of a debt obligation. Whereas you know,

886
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 2: a stupid old shiny rock that required proof of work

887
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 2: and mining to develop. I mean, that's final settlement. I

888
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 2: give you a gold coin and there's no debt there.

889
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 2: There's just you have a coin I don't. And so

890
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 2: you know, people say, well, the price of gold is

891
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: going up. I said, now, really, what's going on here

892
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:51,239
Speaker 2: is trust is being repriced. You know, people used to

893
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 2: trust the dollar, they used to trust bonds. But they've

894
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 2: seen how people who are in charge of the dollar

895
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 2: have behaved. They've seen how the government's be hey for

896
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 2: you know, low on fifty years. I mean really one

897
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 2: hundred years. If you look back at the Fed forming

898
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 2: and over one hundred years, and you know, they say themselves, Eh,

899
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,720
Speaker 2: you know what, I'll take that piece of gold instead. Yeah,

900
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:14,399
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure it's gonna be worth more.

901
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know so, Larry. You know, bitcoin's been the

902
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 1: best performing asset in history for the last seventeen years

903
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 1: and fifteen and ten and five and three, but not

904
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 1: last year. Last year gold and silver smoked it. And

905
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:31,280
Speaker 1: then we talked about, you know, this new parallel system

906
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 1: being built sort of on this gold standard, and I

907
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 1: think that's real. We see this demand, we see that.

908
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 1: I think Gramman said that central bank reserves of gold

909
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 1: is up to like thirty percent now, where you have

910
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 1: treasures down to like forty percent.

911
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,879
Speaker 2: Some of that's the price appreciation, but yeah, and they've

912
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 2: all been buying. Yeah, No, I know where you're going.

913
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,359
Speaker 2: I think your question is why isn't bitcoin participating?

914
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 1: Why isn't And then sort of what's our outlook for that,

915
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 1: you know.

916
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is a good one. So you know,

917
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 2: I sit in a very unique spot here, Mark, Yeah,

918
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 2: because and I've always said this. I always thought maybe someday,

919
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 2: you know, my views would be valuable to people. You know,

920
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 2: there were a lot of people when I was I

921
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 2: was I've always been kind of half and half golden Bitcoin.

922
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 2: I love them both, okay, for different reasons. And you know,

923
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:16,360
Speaker 2: there were a lot of times a lot of my

924
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 2: bitcoin and friends were like, hey, get rid of those

925
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 2: boomer rocks. You're an idiot. I was like, yeah, I'm

926
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 2: not so sure. And then in turn, you know, some

927
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,360
Speaker 2: of my goldfriends are, yeah, that digital stuff it's bullshit,

928
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 2: you know, it's all vaper. Yeah, And I told them

929
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 2: they were wrong too, and and so you know, and really,

930
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 2: to me, they're both forms of sound money. One is

931
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 2: analog sound money has been around five thousand years. The

932
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 2: other's digital sound money, which is going to replace analog

933
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 2: by the way, but that's going to take time. Yeah,

934
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:42,800
Speaker 2: And you know, it's it's interesting to me. The sentiment

935
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 2: in bitcoin land right now reminds me very much of

936
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 2: the sentiment in bitcoin land. You know, after one of

937
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:53,839
Speaker 2: the other drawdowns. I mean, yeah, yeah, right, and and

938
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,359
Speaker 2: you know, to me right now, silver gold and silver

939
00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 2: gold mining stocks for a sell, and bitcoin and micro

940
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:03,640
Speaker 2: strategy or wrong buys, and so you know, one of

941
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 2: the things about bitcoin, you know, one of the things

942
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:08,439
Speaker 2: when I look at an asset, I think it's very

943
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 2: helpful to look at the history of the asset from

944
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 2: the beginning of time. And Bitcoin trades like a wild,

945
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 2: wild animal, and it rewards people who have long term patients.

946
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: And you know, it's it's had enormous draw downs, and

947
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 2: yet it always comes back to make a higher high.

948
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 2: And as Fred Krueger pointed out in his excellent book

949
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 2: Bitcoin one million, you know, from twenty eighteen to twenty

950
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 2: twenty four, bitcoming up to seven hundred percent. If you

951
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 2: missed the ten best days, you didn't make any money.

952
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 2: And so you know, you get these god cans, you

953
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 2: get these really rapid moves. I mean, let's take an

954
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 2: example that I like to use a lot, because I've

955
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:46,360
Speaker 2: got a lot of bitcoin friends who are kind of

956
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 2: crying in their beer, like Jesus Christ, you're making a

957
00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 2: ton of money on gold. Why isn't my stuff participating?

958
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 2: And I'm like, just relaxed. It's going to and it's

959
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 2: not only a participate. It is gonna do better than gold.

960
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 2: But that's you know, you're being tested in terms of

961
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 2: your patients. In twenty two, COVID came along. They pivoted.

962
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 2: COVID came along, The Fed printed a ton of money,

963
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 2: and gold went from twelve hundred to two thousand really quickly. Okay,

964
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 2: in March, from March to May of that year, bitcoin

965
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 2: flat lined between you know, five and eight thousand, just

966
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 2: flat lined. And I had a lot of bitcoin, I

967
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 2: had a lot of gold, and I was looking at say,

968
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 2: this is really weird. How come Bitcoin's not moving well?

969
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 2: Then one day bitcoin woke up that summer and went

970
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 2: from ten to sixty. So it went up six x

971
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:29,400
Speaker 2: in like three months. And that's just the way it behaves.

972
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:32,799
Speaker 2: And so what do I see happening here? You know,

973
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 2: the big Print's going to become very apparent sometime in

974
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:38,359
Speaker 2: the next twelve months, and Bitcoin's going to go from

975
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 2: ninety to four hundred, and people's socks are going to

976
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 2: be blown off, and you know, they're going to wonder

977
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 2: why they didn't believe, and those who sold are going

978
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 2: to have deep regrets. I mean, the notion of selling it,

979
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 2: you know in the mid nineties is thinking you can

980
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 2: buy it back in the sixties. Don't get me wrong,

981
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 2: we might go to sixty if we get a you know,

982
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 2: a big crack up and a correlation of one event.

983
00:45:57,640 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 2: But one of the one things is for sure if

984
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 2: we do get that event, what's going to what's the

985
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 2: government response going to be. They're going to come in

986
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 2: with a fire hoses like they did the last two times.

987
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 2: They got to print like crazy, and it's you know,

988
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 2: we're not going to be at sixty for very long.

989
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 2: It's going to go from sixty to four hundred. So

990
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 2: my view is with each of these, you know, the

991
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 2: returns are getting lower as bitcoin gets more heavily adopted,

992
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,080
Speaker 2: but you know, and the drawdowns, by the way, are

993
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 2: getting lower too. My sense is, you know, Bitcoin's gonna

994
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 2: it's going to explode from ninety to something between two

995
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 2: and four hundred sometime in the next eighteen to twenty

996
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 2: four months. I think I feel very strongly about that,

997
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:35,399
Speaker 2: and I and I feel like buying micro Strategy at

998
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:37,720
Speaker 2: one sixty. I mean, I feel like I'm stealing from people.

999
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 2: It's like, holy yeah, I mean you and I did.

1000
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 2: We went through the math pre show, and I mean

1001
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,840
Speaker 2: this is a thousand to three thousand dollars stock. I

1002
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 2: mean over the next five years.

1003
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:48,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, the math that I sort of walked you through

1004
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 1: pre show. I'll throw it out to the audience here.

1005
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 1: But obviously we don't know the future, so past performance

1006
00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 1: no guarantee of the future. But hypothetically, right now, micro

1007
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: strategies trading in the one to one point two five

1008
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 1: times nav I believe that's undervalued. When I did a

1009
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,840
Speaker 1: interview with Sailor, he said it should be three. Should

1010
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 1: be the floor. You and I talked. I think we

1011
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 1: both agree that a better analog for treasury companies is

1012
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 1: more banks. But even better would be like a gold

1013
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,959
Speaker 1: mining company like a Barrack or Numont, and those trade

1014
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 1: in the two and a half to three and a

1015
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 1: half times. But let's just call it one point twenty five.

1016
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: Let's be conservative. So if bitcoin, I don't want to

1017
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 1: say if I believe bitcoin will hit a million dollars,

1018
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: and that might be somewhere twenty thirty twenty thirty three.

1019
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 1: If by then micro Strategy could get to one million bitcoin.

1020
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:35,359
Speaker 1: They have six fifty today and we're just using raw

1021
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 1: numbers here. So a million bitcoin at a million dollars

1022
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:40,879
Speaker 1: is a trillion dollars. And if they trade at one

1023
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,439
Speaker 1: point two five, which is sort of where they're at now,

1024
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 1: not the three, but at one point fy five, that

1025
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: puts their stock price at over thirty one hundred dollars

1026
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 1: per share. And those are big assumptions, and those are

1027
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,799
Speaker 1: big guesses and put your own numbers in, but that

1028
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:55,800
Speaker 1: just sort of gives you an idea of what potential

1029
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 1: upside could be.

1030
00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 2: It's extremely asymountical, extremely asymmetry. I'm just like, I'm like,

1031
00:48:02,719 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 2: I can't believe we're being given this opportunity.

1032
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 1: It brings a good point, Larry, you know one thing,

1033
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 1: and I think you brought this up earlier, and I'm

1034
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 1: sure you've heard it a million times. Is probably the

1035
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 1: single biggest objection to bitcoin that you hear. Besides it's

1036
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 1: you can't hold it in your hand, because you've talked

1037
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: a lot of gold guys. But the other second biggest

1038
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 1: objection is is it's too late. I already missed out

1039
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:24,799
Speaker 1: kind of a thing, right, And I don't understand that

1040
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 1: because we typically buy stocks forward looking pe ratios. So

1041
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: I'm buying Tesla because I think it's worth more in

1042
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 1: the future. Apple's worth more in the future. But when

1043
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 1: they look at then look at gold, they think about

1044
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 1: how much is in the future, But when they look

1045
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 1: at bitcoin, they think about how much it was in

1046
00:48:39,239 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: the past.

1047
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, very much. I mean, well, people tend to price

1048
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 2: fixate going backwards, and you know, look, I I you know,

1049
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:53,279
Speaker 2: they're all in based of fiat prices, right, And I've

1050
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 2: said this on other shows. I really strongly believe this.

1051
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, bitcoin and gold are your your

1052
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 2: life boats in a sinking currency world where you know,

1053
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 2: fiat currencies are the Titanic and you know, yeah, I

1054
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 2: mean I've got friends who were you know, they didn't

1055
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 2: listen to me. They say, I wish i'd bought it

1056
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:14,479
Speaker 2: like you did at ten, twenty thousand whatever. And same

1057
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 2: with gold. I was pushing gold for years it was

1058
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 2: a thousand or you know, fifteen hundred, and I said, well, well, okay,

1059
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:22,640
Speaker 2: that's you're right, you didn't get that. But you know

1060
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 2: what you've got to think about this is it it's

1061
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 2: a critical state kind of thing. And once once the

1062
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:32,399
Speaker 2: process of fiat failure starts, fression's laws, you know that

1063
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 2: that Titanic it's going to sink. So that seat in

1064
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 2: the lifeboat now costs you more than I bought my

1065
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,160
Speaker 2: seats for. I bought my seats a few years ago,

1066
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 2: and I got a pre sale discount. But guess what,

1067
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 2: you know, you're on the Titanic. You know, do you

1068
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 2: want a seat or don't? You got to pay more

1069
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 2: for it now, but do you want it? Do you

1070
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:51,880
Speaker 2: want to hang? You want to stick with the Titanic?

1071
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 2: And and it's not you know, that's a little over dramatic.

1072
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:56,760
Speaker 2: And I'm not sure FIAT is going to totally fail.

1073
00:49:56,840 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 2: But I think the point is that, you know, and

1074
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 2: a point I try and make it when I talk

1075
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 2: to investors, old young, whatever, is just you've got to

1076
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 2: have a piece of your net worth in things that

1077
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 2: are protected from this debasement, because you know, we not

1078
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 2: only see debasement, but if you look at the math,

1079
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:18,799
Speaker 2: you see accelerating debasement. And so to not have I

1080
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, people ask me, what's the minimum

1081
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 2: if you don't have twenty percent of your assets and

1082
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 2: this stuff?

1083
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 1: You're nuts in golden Bitcoin both either one, I mean,

1084
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 1: we're both combined.

1085
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, we are both combined. I mean, and you know,

1086
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 2: I mean I probably have eighty percent, but yeah, you

1087
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 2: know that's because I'm a partisan and I'm in the game,

1088
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 2: and I you know, I really strongly believe in it.

1089
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,239
Speaker 2: But in real estate fits a little bit there too,

1090
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:41,400
Speaker 2: But you know, it's got a lot of other issues,

1091
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 2: as you know. So yeah, it's to me, it's just

1092
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:49,959
Speaker 2: it's it's it's fundamental stuff and I and I don't.

1093
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:52,800
Speaker 2: The other thing I would say, Mark, is when I

1094
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:54,439
Speaker 2: go to a lot of these shows, I talk to people,

1095
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 2: I look at the stock market statistics, okay, everything else,

1096
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 2: We're still in the first or the second inning. I mean,

1097
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 2: there were Bank of America's stats that show that like

1098
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,640
Speaker 2: seventy percent of the country owns nothing related to precious metal,

1099
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:08,799
Speaker 2: seventy percent. I mean, before this over is over, these

1100
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 2: are going to be like the dot com stocks. Everyone's

1101
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 2: going to be talking about gold stocks at the shoeshine stand.

1102
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, and bitcoin stocks too. I mean

1103
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 2: in MicroStrategy, I mean, we are still in the early innings.

1104
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:23,799
Speaker 2: I mean, because because this isn't just a it's not

1105
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 2: a trade. I mean it's funny, you know, they came out,

1106
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:29,359
Speaker 2: they gave it. Somebody gave a name to this Bank

1107
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 2: of America, or somebody said, you know, the monetary debasement

1108
00:51:32,320 --> 00:51:35,400
Speaker 2: trade now has a name by gold, by silver, by bitcoin. Okay,

1109
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:40,200
Speaker 2: it's not a trade, right, It's a monetary debasement trend

1110
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 2: that has years, if not decades to run. Now, I

1111
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:47,960
Speaker 2: would change my mind if I saw government getting responsible.

1112
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 2: I always tell investors looking to join my fund, I say,

1113
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 2: this is what can make me wrong. You know, if

1114
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:55,279
Speaker 2: the government suddenly starts to get really responsible, I'm wrong.

1115
00:51:55,320 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 2: We're going to back off with this thing. But you know,

1116
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:01,760
Speaker 2: and they always laugh, they chuckle, because that's not gonna happened. Yeah,

1117
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 2: I mean, what do we really think the odds are

1118
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 2: the government's going to get responsible? I mean, it just

1119
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:07,920
Speaker 2: tends to It's like a ratchet. It just all we

1120
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,239
Speaker 2: goes only goes in one direction. Government wants to do

1121
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:12,279
Speaker 2: more and more and more. I mean, here's Trump and

1122
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: maybe you know, maybe he's right, maybe we do have

1123
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 2: to grab all these countries and and you know, secure

1124
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:20,720
Speaker 2: our hemisphere to protect us from you know the threats

1125
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 2: of overseas stuff. But you know, the defense wadge it

1126
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 2: from a trillion to one point five trillion. I mean,

1127
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 2: good god man, I mean, where's that money gonna come from?

1128
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:31,440
Speaker 2: You know, I I know we're going to print.

1129
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 1: It, you know, yeah, you know. I mean you a

1130
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:39,280
Speaker 1: couple of years ago would have sounded like an extremist maybe,

1131
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 1: but JP Morgan put out a paper and literally called

1132
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:45,520
Speaker 1: golden bitcoin the the basement trade. I mean, it's like

1133
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 1: out in the open. Everybody's a minting it. The public

1134
00:52:48,040 --> 00:52:49,959
Speaker 1: hasn't caught onto it yet, but I mean when JP

1135
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:52,319
Speaker 1: Morgan's put in that out, it's pretty big as far

1136
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 1: as the trade goes. You know, I've been following like

1137
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 1: Bill Bonner forever and now he's sort of retired. Great, yeah,

1138
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 1: And he always talked about the gold trade being the

1139
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 1: stock the stock to gold price, and so you know,

1140
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 1: when it gets off side, you go to gold, and

1141
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:08,600
Speaker 1: then when it gets offside the other way, you go

1142
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:11,760
Speaker 1: back to stocks. And uh, you know that that triggered

1143
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 1: and the rotation into gold happened, you know, a year

1144
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 1: or two ago. And it's not a trade, but it's

1145
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:21,799
Speaker 1: it's a rotation, uh, from from a you know, investment standpoint.

1146
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 1: For me, I tend to think of bitcoin as savings

1147
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:28,839
Speaker 1: and not investment, and so for me, then investment makes

1148
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:30,760
Speaker 1: it sound like it's like an active thing I'm supposed

1149
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 1: to do, and at some point I get out of

1150
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 1: the investment, whereas I just think of it as as

1151
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 1: a savings and it's just I put my money there.

1152
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 2: And I say that, right, I mean, yeah, their monetary

1153
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:41,360
Speaker 2: debasement insurance. And bitcoin is really just digital gold and

1154
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 2: the world is a digital world, and you know, to

1155
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 2: all the bitcoins are frustrated, I would just say, hang on,

1156
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 2: you're going to be rewarded, and you know, but and

1157
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:52,359
Speaker 2: but but I as you know, I mean, I get

1158
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:54,399
Speaker 2: on Twitter. I get so much ship from both sides.

1159
00:53:54,400 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 2: I think old guys just attacking me for being a

1160
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 2: bitcoin and I get the bitcoin guys saying, you know,

1161
00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 2: get rid of those damn boomer rocks. And I'm like, oh, guys,

1162
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,760
Speaker 2: there's a place for both. Yeah, I mean bitcoin, gold

1163
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:06,239
Speaker 2: is less volatile than bitcoin. If you're eighty or ninety

1164
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 2: years old, you don't want to have a seventy percent

1165
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:10,840
Speaker 2: draw down on one of your assets, right, And you

1166
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 2: know gold has never had a drawd on like that.

1167
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:14,440
Speaker 2: The biggest ones like twenty five percent.

1168
00:54:14,560 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 1: So you know, I remember us talking, and I remember

1169
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 1: us talking a year and a half ago, and we

1170
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 1: were sort of talking about China acquiring all this gold

1171
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 1: and sort of the gramin thesis of how eventually they

1172
00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 1: could force the US's hand like revaluing gold, and there

1173
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:35,359
Speaker 1: was a chance that gold could get revalued so high

1174
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 1: that it could completely outpace bitcoin's gains. And it hasn't

1175
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:42,440
Speaker 1: gotten repriced, but certainly, and we kind of both agreed

1176
00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:45,959
Speaker 1: in a shorter period of time, and so we didn't

1177
00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 1: see it. We did see it, you know.

1178
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 2: That's the key. Yeah, no, I look, I mean you know,

1179
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 2: Trump has talked about doing gold back treasury bonds, and

1180
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 2: Basensus said he wants to be at the table for

1181
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:58,399
Speaker 2: the next Brenton Woods. I mean, I don't know, man,

1182
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:00,640
Speaker 2: it's I don't know how to hand and hecap that.

1183
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 2: I mean, are they going to do a monetary reset?

1184
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 2: I mean I talked about it my book. I mean,

1185
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:06,680
Speaker 2: that's what that's what we need to do. I mean,

1186
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 2: if we do that, you know, we're broken because the

1187
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 2: money's not sound. We need to return to sound money.

1188
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 2: So it's pretty simple. Do it sooner rather than later. Yeah,

1189
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:16,640
Speaker 2: monetary reset, By the way, what does that look like?

1190
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:19,719
Speaker 2: It would be extremely painful one time inflationary. But the

1191
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 2: government would say, hey, we stand ready to buy or

1192
00:55:22,120 --> 00:55:24,359
Speaker 2: sell gold at twenty five thousand dollars an hour yep.

1193
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 2: And then whether the price of gold goes up or

1194
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,319
Speaker 2: down from there would be you know, they would either

1195
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 2: find themselves, you know, swamped with gold people giving them

1196
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 2: the coins and saying give me the cash, or the

1197
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 2: other way around, saying people would be setting them at

1198
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:37,560
Speaker 2: twenty five grand because the market price of gold had

1199
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:40,480
Speaker 2: gone higher. And they could do the same thing with bitcoin.

1200
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 2: I mean, they would say, you know a dollar, the

1201
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:44,800
Speaker 2: bitcoin is now valued at one million dollars a coin,

1202
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 2: and we stand ready to buy or sell it. We're

1203
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 2: going to put it on our balance sheet. And you know,

1204
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 2: then effectively you've returned to a sound money standard. And

1205
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 2: that's what they should do. But you know, meanwhile, you know,

1206
00:55:55,840 --> 00:55:59,799
Speaker 2: in that scenario, bondholders have gotten destroyed. H and the

1207
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:04,200
Speaker 2: one time inflation would be big, really big. So you know,

1208
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:06,319
Speaker 2: will they have the guts to do it? I doubt it.

1209
00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 2: I don't know. We'll see.

1210
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:10,879
Speaker 1: Well, Larry, we covered a lot of ground, and uh man,

1211
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:12,800
Speaker 1: it's always great to hear from you in your perspective,

1212
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:16,640
Speaker 1: your your your your time in the market, and your

1213
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 1: ability to see stocks, gold and now bitcoin altogether is

1214
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:21,760
Speaker 1: is so needed in the space.

1215
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 2: I appreciate that, you know. I've always felt like in

1216
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 2: this bitcoin game, you know, that's the role I play.

1217
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 2: I've tried to I've tried to drag the gold bugs along.

1218
00:56:30,160 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 2: I'm like, come on, guys, come on, you know, yeah,

1219
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 2: gold's good, but this is better. Yeah, and uh, I

1220
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:37,399
Speaker 2: still believe that. And I think, you know, people will

1221
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:41,040
Speaker 2: be rewarded for owning both. I think bitcoin will outpace gold,

1222
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:43,759
Speaker 2: and I think it will demonetize gold. But I think

1223
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 2: there is you know, there's a real question mark as

1224
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:47,399
Speaker 2: to what the slope of that curve looks like, how

1225
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 2: fast it is. I think a lot of bitcoiners thought

1226
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:52,800
Speaker 2: it would happen instantly, and that's clearly not the case.

1227
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:53,919
Speaker 2: It's going to take a little time.

1228
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 1: So I want to wrap this up, Larry, give me,

1229
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 1: give me one final sentence to the person that's listening

1230
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 1: who feels trapped right now.

1231
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:09,360
Speaker 2: Well, look, life is good. You know, in spite of

1232
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:12,279
Speaker 2: all the problems in the world, there are enormous benefits.

1233
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,640
Speaker 2: I mean, in terms of your ability to educate yourself.

1234
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:16,160
Speaker 2: I mean, look at what the internet, look at these

1235
00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 2: zoom calls, look at all the look at all the

1236
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:21,480
Speaker 2: things you can do, and and if you have agency

1237
00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:26,320
Speaker 2: and you're willing to study and do the work, there's

1238
00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 2: a there's a way out of this mess. And and

1239
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:30,320
Speaker 2: it is a mess for a lot of people. I

1240
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:32,680
Speaker 2: get that, and that's why I wrote the book. I

1241
00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 2: want to try and help the average person understand why

1242
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:37,760
Speaker 2: it's a mess and how to protect themselves. So I

1243
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:41,240
Speaker 2: think the sooner you start to really understand what's happening,

1244
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 2: the game that's being played, and then you align your

1245
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:49,200
Speaker 2: personal situation to protect yourself, which is to hold these assets,

1246
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:51,360
Speaker 2: the sooner you're going to start to feel like you're

1247
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 2: not trapped. And uh, I know personally, I mean, I've

1248
00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:55,920
Speaker 2: had a lot of ups and downs in my career

1249
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:58,840
Speaker 2: has been very hard. I've been you know, relatively you know,

1250
00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:00,640
Speaker 2: wealthier at times, and there were times and I felt

1251
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:04,760
Speaker 2: quite poor frankly. Yeah, and now I'm actually kind of

1252
00:58:04,880 --> 00:58:07,640
Speaker 2: coming to the view that you know this, we're pretty

1253
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 2: much right about this, and and you know, I have

1254
00:58:10,520 --> 00:58:12,920
Speaker 2: great comfort that this is how it's going to unfold.

1255
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 2: And and so I would just say to everybody, take

1256
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 2: the time to really understand this stuff. And I think

1257
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:22,440
Speaker 2: you know you're you will benefit from doing so. In there.

1258
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 2: You know, they're just an enormous number of free resource

1259
00:58:25,080 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 2: on the web, your show, so many other shows that

1260
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:31,680
Speaker 2: you can give you the perspective and it's it's all there.

1261
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 2: So you know, go do the work. And I think

1262
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:36,440
Speaker 2: when you do the work, you'll come to the conclusion

1263
00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:37,920
Speaker 2: that you and I have come to, which is this

1264
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 2: is the best way to protect yourself.

1265
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:42,960
Speaker 1: Yep, yep, all right, Larry, Well, I think with that

1266
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:45,960
Speaker 1: we're going to unwrap with Mark. Appreciate your like I said,

1267
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:48,000
Speaker 1: your wisdom and your perspective. It's always good, always good

1268
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 1: to catch up with you, so thanks so much.

1269
00:58:49,560 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, likewise, Mark really enjoyed it. Thank you.