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Speaker 1: It's sponsorship time. But you know what, it's really great

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Speaker 1: when you get a sponsor that you already use. And

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Speaker 1: guess what. Quint's is something that in the Todd household

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Speaker 1: we already go to. Why do we go to Quint's

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Speaker 1: Because it's a place you go where you can get

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Speaker 1: some really nice clothes without the really expensive prices. And

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Speaker 1: one of the things I've been going through is I've

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Speaker 1: transitioned from being mister cot and tie guy to wanting

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Speaker 1: a little more casual but to look nice doing it.

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Speaker 1: Is I've become mister quarter zip guy. Well guess what.

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Speaker 1: Guess he's got amazing amounts of quarter zips. It is Quints.

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Speaker 1: I have gotten quite a few already from there. The

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Speaker 1: stuff's really nice. They have Mongolian cashmere sweaters for fifty dollars.

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Speaker 1: I just know, hey, cashmere, that's pretty good. You don't

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Speaker 1: normally get that for fifty bucks or less. Italian wool

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Speaker 1: coats that look and feel like designer the stuff. I'll

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Speaker 1: be honest, right, you look at it online, you think, okay,

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Speaker 1: is this really as nice as it looks? Well, when

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Speaker 1: I got it, I was like, oh, this is real quality.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm going to end up making sure I

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Speaker 1: take it to my dry cleaner so I don't screw

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Speaker 1: it up when I clean it. But I've been quite impressed.

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you you're going to find something that is

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Speaker 1: Use that code. Hello there, Happy Monday, and welcome to

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Speaker 1: another episode of the Chuck Podcast. Of course, I have

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Speaker 1: to open up to do a little representing here to

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Speaker 1: say I'm relieved and surprised at the committee's decision with

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Speaker 1: the University of Miami and football is an understatement. I

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Speaker 1: don't think any of the sins that I've been identifying

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Speaker 1: of this committee should somehow be washed away. What they

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Speaker 1: have done with the SEC in Alabama is as suspicious

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Speaker 1: as ever, and I do not blame anger out of

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Speaker 1: the folks at Notre Dame. I think the strangest decision

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Speaker 1: was including Alabama. Actually the strangest decision was including Oklahoma.

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Speaker 1: We can have a longer discussion about that, and I

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Speaker 1: have still have a bunch of stuff to say about this.

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Speaker 1: I love the fact that now all these ESPN personalities

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Speaker 1: at CURTA. Herdstreet are saying we should get rid of

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Speaker 1: this TV show. Good luck getting your bosses to agree

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Speaker 1: to do the TV show. But you are correct. The

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Speaker 1: college football ranking shows created this antagonism of fan bases, suspicion, conspiracy, theory, ease,

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Speaker 1: all of that, the behavior of the committee, the lack

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Speaker 1: of sort of consistency, the decision, all that business it.

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Speaker 1: You know, they have nobody to blame but themselves. I

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Speaker 1: had a friend of mine quickly text he said, well

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Speaker 1: all your whining worked, and I'm like, hey, don't encourage me.

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Speaker 1: There's a I hope that's not the case in a

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Speaker 1: weird way. I hope it wasn't outside agitators like myself

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Speaker 1: and others pointing out facts that they were unaware of.

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Speaker 1: I should hope they were. That they didn't need people

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Speaker 1: to point these things out, but to say that how

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Speaker 1: this went down and the it is going to do

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Speaker 1: nothing but encourage more activity like the activity a bunch

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Speaker 1: of US University of Miami partisans participate in over the

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Speaker 1: last few weeks. There will be more of that come

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Speaker 1: next year, until they finally get rid of this committee

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Speaker 1: and allow basics what happens on the field dictates everything

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Speaker 1: hard stop. But like I said, I'll have more to

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Speaker 1: say about college football. And for those of you who

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Speaker 1: don't care about sports or college football, or have written

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Speaker 1: off college football because you don't like how they've been

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Speaker 1: doing this for frankly one hundred years, they have never

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Speaker 1: gotten their postseason, right, I get it, I understand, and

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Speaker 1: I will put this at the end of this podcast.

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Speaker 1: Let me give you a rundown of what I got

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Speaker 1: going on today. We of course have got sort of

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Speaker 1: I want to go through a little bit of the

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Speaker 1: National of the of the new National Strategic Security Strategy

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Speaker 1: Memo that gets updated every year by whoever's in the presidency,

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Speaker 1: and to say there's a departure not surprising, but a

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Speaker 1: departure of of what role America should play in the

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Speaker 1: world is an understatement. Bottom line, the president of the

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Speaker 1: United States does not want to be the leader of

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Speaker 1: the free world, if you take the National Security Strategy

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Speaker 1: update seriously, I want to get into that a little

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Speaker 1: bit on this Trump pardon anger at Henry Quaar and

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Speaker 1: what it really tells us about how the pardon system works.

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Speaker 1: On the Trump White House, I have an interview with

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Speaker 1: Jared Bernstein. He was Joe Biden's chief economic advisor when

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Speaker 1: he was Vice president and essentially played the same role

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Speaker 1: when he was president. He's got some interesting takes on

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Speaker 1: what he thinks that FED will do and ought to do.

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Speaker 1: That decision is going to happen later this week, so

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Speaker 1: I think this is a very timely interview. But it's

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Speaker 1: not a partisan You will not hear he's got ideological

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Speaker 1: points of view on what to do about this economy.

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Speaker 1: But when you hear this interview, this is not a

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Speaker 1: partisan conversation. This is a conversation with an economist who

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Speaker 1: has a more liberal point of view and I think

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Speaker 1: if you're curious about what's happening in this economy, you

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Speaker 1: will enjoy this conversation. I'll do some Q and A

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Speaker 1: after the interview, and of course, what so many have

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Speaker 1: you been waiting for all of my hot, medium, well

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Speaker 1: medium and cold takes when it comes to college football,

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Speaker 1: and including maybe analyzing Miami's path to the national title game,

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Speaker 1: which shall we say, is extraordinarily difficult. But I want

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Speaker 1: to start with sort of the news that wasn't. That

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Speaker 1: wasn't the headline, but I think it's something that I

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Speaker 1: wanted to spend a few minutes focused on before I

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Speaker 1: get to some of the sort of you know, hot

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Speaker 1: take headlines that I know I want to dabble in.

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Speaker 1: I've got a few things, just sort of what I

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Speaker 1: would call a notebook item of news events that I

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Speaker 1: think folks need to be following more closely. But finally,

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Speaker 1: earlier this week, the Trump White House put out the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five National Security Strategy Memo, and here's what

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Speaker 1: it signals. Signaled to a significant and explicit departure from

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Speaker 1: the long standing US foreign policy goal of actively spreading

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Speaker 1: and supporting democracy abroad. Here on the eve you know,

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Speaker 1: of the two hundred and fiftieth anniversary of our founding

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Speaker 1: as a small d democratic country as the sort of

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Speaker 1: beacon of democracy for the world. This is not the

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Speaker 1: role Donald Trump and the MAGA movement wants the United

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Speaker 1: States to play. The America First ideology is strewn all

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Speaker 1: through this document. It reorients US policy away from what's

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Speaker 1: been a values based interventionism and toward a more strictly

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Speaker 1: pragmatic America First approach, defining core national security interests as sovereignty,

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Speaker 1: homeland defense, economic strength, and self reliance. No longer do

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Speaker 1: we believe in spreading our value, supporting our values, supporting

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Speaker 1: small de democracy when it's necessary. In fact, non interventionism.

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Speaker 1: The strategy explicitly criticizes past efforts to impose quote democratic

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Speaker 1: or other social change that differs widely from their traditions

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Speaker 1: and histories. It's just a clear rejection of the post

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Speaker 1: Cold War consensus on democracy promotion in nation building. Right.

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Speaker 1: This is where there was a strong, sort of broad

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Speaker 1: bipartisan consensus that the United States should always first and

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Speaker 1: foremost support freedom, support democracy when it is obviously how

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Speaker 1: much do you use military to do it? Look, those

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Speaker 1: are fair debates but to no longer be in the

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Speaker 1: business of supporting it or promoting it seems to be

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Speaker 1: a big mistake. The strategy memo also generally favors accepting

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Speaker 1: countries as they are, which of course is a cherry

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Speaker 1: picked thing. I'll get to that in a minute. As

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Speaker 1: their leaders quote as they are in regions like the

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Speaker 1: Middle East, prioritizing stability and transactional cooperation over shared interests

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Speaker 1: on shared interest rather than talking about internal political reform.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we've seen the Vice President lecture Europe and

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Speaker 1: not accepting Europe at face value. We've seen the President

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Speaker 1: of United States lecture Brazil and how it decided to

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Speaker 1: deal with Bolsonaro, not accepting Brazil at face value. So

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Speaker 1: this is this is clearly a philosophy that they will

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Speaker 1: only sometimes follow depending on their personal relationships with said

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Speaker 1: country or said leader. But for the most part, real

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Speaker 1: politic is not something that you hear me criticize. I

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Speaker 1: think sometimes you have to deal with the countries that

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Speaker 1: you have. You have to deal with the leaders that

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Speaker 1: you have, not necessarily the leaders that you want. But

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Speaker 1: there's a fine line, right So, for as far as

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Speaker 1: this administration is concerned, they believe foreign policy to be

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Speaker 1: judged by what makes the United States more powerful and

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Speaker 1: prosperous period, not by the for of government of its partners.

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Speaker 1: So it means we'll have closer cooperation with essentially undemocratic

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Speaker 1: regimes dictators. It is there is no more value judgment

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Speaker 1: on who the United States does business with or allies with,

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Speaker 1: unless we've decided there's a value judgment on who the

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Speaker 1: US so right, it's like, under that scenario, why are

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Speaker 1: we why are we blockading Cuba?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: Why why aren't we just dealing with Cuba as it is? Right?

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Speaker 1: It's great, we have select this is there's there's a

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Speaker 1: clearly not this is. This is a an aspirational document,

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Speaker 1: not one that they plan on following when it's inconvenient

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Speaker 1: to their own beliefs. On this one, what's interesting is

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Speaker 1: that the document also took a shot at Europe. It

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Speaker 1: criticizes European Union and e integration efforts, claiming they have

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Speaker 1: suppressed political liberty, prevented innovation, and fostered europe to clim Basically,

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Speaker 1: they're on the side of the Brigsteers and they're on

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Speaker 1: the side of everybody that and on mister Orbon, who's

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Speaker 1: all anti EU. This is a document even though these

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Speaker 1: many of these countries are choosing to do this. So

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Speaker 1: out of one mouth they're saying, we've got We've got

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Speaker 1: to judge by what the United States makes a more

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Speaker 1: powerful and prosperous not by the form of government of

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Speaker 1: its partners. And then the next prep hey, you Europe,

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Speaker 1: don't try to get together and have a powerful EU.

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Speaker 1: So obviously there is a political dynamic to this, which

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Speaker 1: is this administration is going to support other nationalist movements, right,

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Speaker 1: whether it's a nationalist movement with Nigel Faraj in the UK,

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Speaker 1: a nationalist movement in Hungary that is pretty clear, and

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Speaker 1: with the controversial political party and the political movement in

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Speaker 1: Germany that AfD. It explicitly signals support for quote patriotic

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Speaker 1: European parties often interpreted is far right nowtionallest parties calls

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Speaker 1: for the US to cultivate resistance to Europe's current trajectory.

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Speaker 1: So again on one side of their mouth, this National

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Speaker 1: Security Strategy memo says, hey, the United States is going

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Speaker 1: to accept countries as it is. Then in its next breath,

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Speaker 1: when it comes to Europe, they're saying, we're going to

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Speaker 1: get involved in the internal politics of European countries on

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Speaker 1: the side of nationalists. Sorry, if you were looking for consistency,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Trump administration is not a place to go.

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Speaker 1: This would be a dramatic intervention into the internal politics

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Speaker 1: of key allies, and we would be disrupting NATO, disrupting

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Speaker 1: the EU, essentially America's most important cultural as well as

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Speaker 1: sort of traditional allies for the last one hundred years.

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Speaker 1: I mean to do this to Europe feels like just frankly,

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a troll rather than anything that

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Speaker 1: is in the best interests of the national security of

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Speaker 1: the United States. Now, there's still some soft power that

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Speaker 1: this memo that this strategy memo does support. When discussing democracy,

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Speaker 1: the strategy member primarily focuses on defending and renewing American

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Speaker 1: principles at home, like limited government, the rule of law,

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Speaker 1: constitutional fidelity, and calling that the foundation of US strength.

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Speaker 1: And then it calls for respectful influence, stating that the

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Speaker 1: US will maintain its quote unrivaled soft power through which

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Speaker 1: we exercise positive influence throughout the world that furthers our interests,

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Speaker 1: but adds that the US will be quote respectful of

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Speaker 1: other countries, differing religions, cultures, and governing systems, apparently except

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Speaker 1: when it comes to Europe. In the EU, it's a

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Speaker 1: key line that minimizes the impetus to push for political

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Speaker 1: change abroad. But the bottom line is this, This twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five National Security Strategy memo effectively ends the era

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Speaker 1: of America wanting to be the leader of the free world.

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Speaker 1: You know, I've always said the presidency of the United

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Speaker 1: States is really three jobs in one. When you're running

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Speaker 1: as a political candidate, you're running to be leader of

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Speaker 1: your party. You're running to be the actual president of

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Speaker 1: the United States and of the three hundred and thirty

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Speaker 1: million people. So that's sort of job too to essentially

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Speaker 1: actually execute the office. And then the third job is

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Speaker 1: leader of the free world. But as far as Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump's concerned, that is no longer a job. We know

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Speaker 1: he has never saw him See, he does not believe

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Speaker 1: he should be the promoter of democracy around the world,

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Speaker 1: the promoter of freedom around the world. He is. This

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Speaker 1: is not as if he says one thing and does

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Speaker 1: another on that issue. He has never said he wants

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Speaker 1: to do. That's what's been inconsistent is he says Hey,

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Speaker 1: we should be just dealing with countries as they are. Right,

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Speaker 1: this is what the decision we've made about China and Russia,

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Speaker 1: rather than hope we can make change subtly with soft

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Speaker 1: power or at times hard power, except of course, when

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Speaker 1: he decides he doesn't like somebody or he doesn't like

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Speaker 1: a political movement. So it is like many an ideological

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Speaker 1: declaration that Donald Trump has made. There are so many

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Speaker 1: holes that there is Swiss that it's sort of like

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Speaker 1: a declaration of Swiss cheese. And this National Security Strategy

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Speaker 1: memo in many ways does echo the broad sort of

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Speaker 1: definition of what somebody would describe as an isolationist of America,

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Speaker 1: first of sort of detaching the United States from the world,

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Speaker 1: very much articulating what the philosophy of the Republican Party

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Speaker 1: was before World War Two. The problem is that is

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Speaker 1: not how he actually executes the presidency, right. It is

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Speaker 1: really there is no ideologe. There is no Trump doctrine

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Speaker 1: beyond what's good for Trump. Right. He gets involved in

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Speaker 1: a country if somebody asks him to get involved, he

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Speaker 1: wants to be you know, if he thinks there's some

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Speaker 1: benefit to him, he'll get involved. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: there's when you look at the deal he cut with

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Speaker 1: Cutter to give them this NATO like defense agreement. Does

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Speaker 1: that happen without the airplane? I think we all know

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Speaker 1: the likely answer to that. And I just put that

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Speaker 1: out there because this is a huge departure, and I

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Speaker 1: know that there is This is not something that a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are going to vote on, but I

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Speaker 1: will tell you this, this makes us weaker, and this

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Speaker 1: makes us less safe. There's going to be a lot

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Speaker 1: of people who feel let down by the United States.

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Speaker 1: Feels as if the United States doesn't ever really care

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Speaker 1: about freedom and democracy, no longer cares about human rights.

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Speaker 1: And there's always been a look, we've we've always been

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Speaker 1: better on human rights rhetoric than we've been on trying

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Speaker 1: to use our influence to improve a situation. Because there's

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Speaker 1: you know, you know, just what should our military be

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Speaker 1: used for? Okay, I think those are those are bare debates,

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Speaker 1: but this is a total sort of washing our hands

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Speaker 1: of the debate about what, you know, should would the

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Speaker 1: world be better off if we all lived under a democracy?

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Speaker 1: And if you, as leader, as president of the United States,

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Speaker 1: don't believe that, I don't think you should represent America.

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Speaker 1: We're an idea. We are not an ethnic based anything.

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Speaker 1: I know that the president would like us to be,

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Speaker 1: but we are not. The whole point of this country

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Speaker 1: was an idea that anybody could be an American if

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Speaker 1: they believed in the idea of America, the idea of freedom,

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Speaker 1: the idea of democracy, didn't matter what ethnicity you were,

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Speaker 1: what religion you practiced. That ultimately, do you believe in

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Speaker 1: that core idea of individual liberty? And what this memo

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Speaker 1: sadly does is sort of reject that and isn't interested

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Speaker 1: in promoting it, which should make us, should make you

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Speaker 1: feel concerned that if we're not interested in promoting it,

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Speaker 1: then are we really interested in having it here at home?

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Speaker 1: So look, I'm not going to sit here and be

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Speaker 1: one of these folks that the democracy is about to crumble.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it is. I think our democracy is

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Speaker 1: pretty well embedded in society, and I just think it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a lot harder to destroy our democracy

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Speaker 1: than some fear. But this weekens the democracy, This erodes

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Speaker 1: our credibility around the world in ways that isn't going

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Speaker 1: to get repaired with the next president. This is generational damage,

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Speaker 1: and this retreat. And that's what make no mistake. This

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Speaker 1: National Security Strategy Memo is just a full retreat. Guess

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Speaker 1: who loves this memo? Vladimir Putin, He's ecstatic and in fact,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump Junior was in Cutter along with his buddy

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Speaker 1: Tucker Carlson earlier this week. He was asked during an

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Speaker 1: event in Cutter Donald Trump Junior if the US president

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Speaker 1: could walk away from Ukraine, and Junior said, I think

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Speaker 1: he may, and then he adds this, what's good about

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Speaker 1: my father, and what's unique about my father is you

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Speaker 1: don't know what he's going to do. The fact that

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Speaker 1: he's not predictable forces everyone to actually deal in an

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Speaker 1: intellectually honest capacity. There's a few things where Trump's unpredictability

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Speaker 1: is helpful. In the Middle East it has been, and

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Speaker 1: I think in dealing with some of those countries that's

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Speaker 1: kind of the way it goes. But guess who was

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Speaker 1: happy about the new National security memom. The Kremlin lauded this,

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Speaker 1: saying that the new directive stopped calling Russia a direct

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Speaker 1: threat and calling that a positive step. According to Reuter's

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Speaker 1: so there you go, we now have a new national

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Speaker 1: security strategy philosophy. That's governing this executive branch and the

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Speaker 1: decisions that are going to be made at the State Departmartment,

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Speaker 1: at embassies around the world, the CIA, the Pentagon, that

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Speaker 1: make two countries happier above all others, Russia and China.

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Speaker 1: Is that good for America? Is that good for democracy?

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Speaker 1: I think we know the answer. Having good life insurance

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Speaker 1: sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have any money.

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Speaker 1: He didn't leave us in the best shape. My mother,

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Speaker 1: single mother, now widow. Myself sixteen trying to figure out

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Speaker 1: how am I going to pay for college and lo

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Speaker 1: and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy that

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Speaker 1: we found wasn't a lot, but it was important at

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Speaker 1: the time, and it's why I was able to go

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Speaker 1: to college. Little did he know how important that would

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Speaker 1: be in that moment. Well guess what. That's why I

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Speaker 1: am here to tell you about Etho's life. They can

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Speaker 1: an online platform that makes getting life insurance fast and easy,

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Speaker 1: There's no complicated process and it's one hundred percent online.

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Speaker 1: There's no medical exam require you just answer a few

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Speaker 1: little as ten minutes, and you can get same day

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Speaker 1: coverage without ever leaving your home. You can get up

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Speaker 1: to three million dollars in coverage, and some policies start

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Speaker 1: as low as two dollars a day that would be

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Speaker 1: billed monthly. As of March twenty twenty five, Business Insider

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Speaker 1: named Ethos the number one no medical exam instant life

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Speaker 1: So again, that's Ethos dot com slash chuck. Application times

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Speaker 1: may vary and the rates themselves may vary as well,

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Speaker 1: but trust me, life insurance is something you should really

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Speaker 1: think about it, especially if you've got a growing family.

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Speaker 1: I want to pivot a little bit here, and that

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Speaker 1: is too the fascinating anger of Donald Trump at Henry Quaar,

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Speaker 1: the Democratic congressman who last week decided who got a

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Speaker 1: pardon from President Trump? And I told you on that

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Speaker 1: last episode, boy, nothing is done for free. So the

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Speaker 1: question is where did this come from? And what is

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Speaker 1: what is Quaar going to be giving in return? Well,

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Speaker 1: apparently Donald Trump expected something in return. So let me

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Speaker 1: give you a quick summary of sort of everything you

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Speaker 1: need to know about this Trump Quayar pardon controversy, because

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Speaker 1: I actually think this shows that that basically Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: is confessing a crime right here, and it's and the

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Speaker 1: crime is that he is selling these pardons. Sometimes he's

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Speaker 1: selling them for actual money, and sometimes he's selling them

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Speaker 1: for some sort of political support. Well, let me go

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Speaker 1: through this. So here's the actual charges that Kuaire and

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Speaker 1: his wife were facing. They were indicted in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four on a dozen federal charges that included bribery, money laundering,

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Speaker 1: and conspiracy. The charges basically alleged that the couple accepted

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Speaker 1: six hundred thousand dollars in bribes from a Mexican bank

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Speaker 1: and an Azerbaijani oil and gas company in exchange for

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Speaker 1: advancing interests. So I told you that these are the

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Speaker 1: types of crimes Trump has been pardoning left and right right.

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Speaker 1: Anybody that's been accused of essentially using their having being

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Speaker 1: bought off for their influence is something Trump doesn't think

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Speaker 1: is a crime tells you something right there.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: So on December third, he granted a full and unconditional

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Speaker 1: pardon to both Henry and Emmelda Kwar, both both the

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Speaker 1: congressman and his wife, and it effectively ended the federal

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Speaker 1: prosecution before the schedule April twenty, twenty sixth trial, which

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Speaker 1: could have been a huge problem for his reel lift.

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Speaker 1: And at the time, Trump justified his pardon by saying

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Speaker 1: he was reversing a quote politically motivated prosecution, he claimed,

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Speaker 1: and he claimed that the Justice Department and President Biden

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Speaker 1: had weaponized the system against Quaar simply because the congressman

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Speaker 1: had been a vocal critic of Biden's border policies. He

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Speaker 1: called Quaar beloved and said he was speaking the truth

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Speaker 1: against open borders. Well after receiving the pardon, Quaar publicly

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Speaker 1: thanked Trump but firmly stated he would not be switching

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Speaker 1: parties and he would run for reelection as a Democrat

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Speaker 1: in the twenty eighth congressional district in Texas. Well, that's

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Speaker 1: exactly what he did. Earlier or just before the weekend.

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Speaker 1: He filed the paperwork for his reelection bid as a

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Speaker 1: Democrat on the same day the pardon was announced, and

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Speaker 1: then Trump went off right. He was really angry. He

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Speaker 1: reacted to the strong public criticism just a few days

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Speaker 1: after the pardon, specifically lashing out at Quaar for running

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Speaker 1: as a Democrat. The core of his complaint was perceived

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Speaker 1: as a quote lack of loyalty. Let me read you

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Speaker 1: the full truth Social Post. Only a short time after

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Speaker 1: signing the pardon, This is Trump's truth, Social Post, Congressman

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Speaker 1: Henry Quair announced that he will be running for Congress again.

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Speaker 1: He put running in quotes in the great state of

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Speaker 1: Texas parenthesesis state where I received the highest number of

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Speaker 1: votes ever recorded. He loves to throw these sort of

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Speaker 1: sort of statistics that are kind of meaningless pretty much

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Speaker 1: because our population always grows, particularly in the Sunbelt. Whoever

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Speaker 1: wins these states each time is getting the most number

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Speaker 1: of votes that anybody's ever gotten. But anyway, but I digress.

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Speaker 1: He's complaining that Quaer fil for office as a Democrat,

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Speaker 1: continuing to work with the same radical left scum that

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Speaker 1: just weeks before wanted him and his wife to spend

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Speaker 1: the rest of their lives in prison. Such a lack

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Speaker 1: of loyalty. Loyalty is in all caps, something that Texas

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Speaker 1: voters and Henry's daughters will not like. Oh well, next time,

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Speaker 1: no more, mister nice guy. I never spoke to the congressman,

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Speaker 1: his wife, or his daughters, but felt very good about

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Speaker 1: fighting for a family that was tormented by very sick

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Speaker 1: and arrange p people. They were treated so badly. So

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Speaker 1: I don't This is clear to me that there's a

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Speaker 1: lot more reporting that we all need to do on

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Speaker 1: this one. Do we really think there was very little

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Speaker 1: conversation between members of Choir's family and the White House.

431
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: There was obviously some conversation. The President cited a letter

432
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: from his daughters. He said he was moved by the

433
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 1: letter from his daughters. But Trump, certainly it sounds like

434
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 1: thought he was doing this in exchange for something, and

435
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: he's angry when the something that he expected sounds like

436
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: he expected either Choir to switch parties, filed a run

437
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 1: as a Republican or whatever. Right, he did it just

438
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 1: before the filing deadline. So you know, if you're looking

439
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: for fishy smells here, that like, okay, is you know,

440
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 1: is there something here we're not being told?

441
00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 2: Right?

442
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: The timing of the pardon is a tell, right, just

443
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 1: before the Texas filing deadline, and then he lashes out

444
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:11,919
Speaker 1: after Quaar files as a Democrat. Methinks, we don't have

445
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: all the details of this story, but the most important

446
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 1: part of this is Trump's public reaction, because again we

447
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: sort of are shrugging our shoulders right now collectively about

448
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,199
Speaker 1: what is happening nearly once a week, which is Trump

449
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 1: does a major pardon of somebody that has no business

450
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:35,439
Speaker 1: getting a pardon, but who magically has a connection to

451
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 1: somebody close to the president former president of Honduras, magically

452
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: is close to Roger Stone, right, the guy with the

453
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: crypto binance. He's magically in business with the President's sons,

454
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,160
Speaker 1: and we Quaar with somebody. You know, this is part

455
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: of Remember, he is already ordered Texas Republicans to do

456
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 1: the redistricting business. One of the places they think they're

457
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 1: going to make up ground is in South Texas. He

458
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 1: pardons Henry Quayar just days before the filing deadline. Quaar

459
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: decides to stick and run as a Democrat, perhaps looking

460
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: at the polls and realizing that being a Republican at

461
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six might not be the best decision, even

462
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 1: in South Texas. Next cycle and Trump goes crazy. Let's

463
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 1: just say I think we know that he uses the

464
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 1: pardon power to try to get what he wants. Maybe

465
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: it's business deals for his kids, maybe it's political support,

466
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: maybe it's something else. Maybe it's just simply to help

467
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: a friend get a payday, whether it's a Pollmanniford or

468
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: Roger Stone or whatever. By the way, it's it's very

469
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: funny today Roger Stone has other people out there trying

470
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 1: to claim he didn't He didn't. They're not saying he

471
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 1: didn't make money off the pardon, but he wasn't paid

472
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 1: to represent the president. I have a feeling we know

473
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 1: that there's some specificity and these denials in order for

474
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 1: them to not look totally crooked in all of this.

475
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 1: But anyway, I am, I am just. I do not

476
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: get why there's not more outrage about the weekly sales

477
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: Weekly go look at this list of pardons, uh, and

478
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 1: it's it's it's uh. It ain't making America great again,

479
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 1: that's for sure, but it is making crime easy again,

480
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 1: and that especially white collar crime, that alarm a lot

481
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: of people. And if you're going to wonder why the

482
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 1: pitchforks may come out for Left and right. You know,

483
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: this is Donald Trump being on the side of the elites,

484
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: being on the side that rip off everyday.

485
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 2: People.

486
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 1: Just remember that, Just remember that of those that thought

487
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 1: Trump was going to be on your side, that he

488
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: was going to go get those elites, instead, he pardons

489
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 1: those elites. Few other things before we get to the

490
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 1: interview with Jared Bernstein. I am fascinated by the sixty

491
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 1: minutes interview that Marjorie Taylor Green gave on Sunday. I

492
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 1: think the quote that is making the rounds is fascinating,

493
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: which let me just read it. I watched many of

494
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: my colleagues go from making fun of him, making fun

495
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 1: of how he talks, making fun of me constantly for

496
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: supporting him, to when he won the primary in twenty

497
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 1: twenty four, they all started, excuse my language, Leslie referring

498
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 1: to Leslie Stall kissing his ass and decided to put

499
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 1: on a MAGA hat for the first time. Here's the thing,

500
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 1: I am convinced that Marjorie Taylor Green is coming about

501
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: all of this not as some sort of act or

502
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 1: as some sort of pivot. I think this is somebody

503
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 1: who was naive to how politics were. She owned a Jim,

504
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: she lived in her own world, didn't like what she saw,

505
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 1: got caught up in the Trump movement, maybe believed that

506
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 1: he wasn't a bullshitter, believed this bullshit, and then is

507
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: like realizing sort of it and it's taken. You know,

508
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: it's sort of a little bit at a time because

509
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 1: you know, she doesn't she does. You know, it's almost

510
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: as at first she thought, you know, this is where

511
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 1: I'm wondering. Did she think political theater was the way

512
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: you were supposed to do this? And then she realized,

513
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: you know, she just got the wrong introduction to what

514
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 1: politics was. She only got the introduction through the prism

515
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 1: of Trump. But she actually thought these folks believed in something,

516
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: and she's found out the hard way that they don't

517
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: really believe what they say. Let's just say I think

518
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: she's I think she is somebody that if she chooses

519
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: to run for something, like I said this before, John

520
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 1: as Suffer, should be relieved she's not running for the Senate.

521
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 1: But I you know, I don't know whether she has

522
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: this ambition. She may not. She may just view this

523
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: but maybe you don't do a sixty minutes interview if

524
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: you don't have if you're not trying to preserve yourself

525
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: a place in the future somewhere. But what if she's

526
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 1: the pure, the real MAGA candidate in twenty eight primary

527
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 1: vance and that becomes the split. Does it open the

528
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 1: door for a third item too? Anyway, just something to

529
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 1: think about a few other things that I wanted to

530
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 1: that I wanted, one other aspect that I wanted to

531
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 1: get to, and then we'll get to the interview with

532
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 1: Jed Burnstein. The other story that's sort of roiling Washington

533
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 1: is the shocking unpopularity of all four congressional leaders right now.

534
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: And we've been in periods like this before. After sort

535
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: of the fall of Jim Wright in the late eighties,

536
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: there was a period between sort of the Right speakership

537
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 1: and the Gingrit speakership where just felt like there was

538
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 1: just not a lot of uh, a lot of great

539
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 1: leadership on Capitol Hill and both parties were going through

540
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 1: a transition. And then you sort of got you know,

541
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 1: you got that's that's when sort of got parting. Gingridg

542
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 1: stepped in and then they created some stability and you

543
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 1: had Mitchell and Dole for a little bit. We went

544
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 1: through a period I think where when Dashel lost and

545
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 1: you had like a lot and frist and there was

546
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: a lot of unsteadiness congressional leadership there and sort of

547
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 1: the mid Ats and then you got uh sort of

548
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 1: some stability again, the rise of Pelosi on the left,

549
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 1: the rise of Bayner and the right, Mitch McConnell getting UH,

550
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid, and they sort of created

551
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: and now I think we're in another one those right

552
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: where we're sort of the the Senate leaders have really

553
00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:49,719
Speaker 1: not you know, McConnell and and uh read have been replaced,

554
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 1: but they but they're but neither Schumer nor Thune has

555
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 1: the same level of credibility that either one of those

556
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: two leaders had. UH and Jeffreys and Johnson clearly don't

557
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,239
Speaker 1: have the same level of credibility that their predecessors had

558
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: Pelosi or McCarthy. And I'm not sure any of these

559
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 1: four are going to gain it, right, I think we're

560
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 1: going to have to go through this cycle and you're

561
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 1: going to see, right, if Republicans lose the House, there's

562
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 1: going to be a new House leader. And I'll be honest,

563
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a free for all,

564
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: and that might be healthy they kind of need, you know,

565
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: they're sort of in some ways. Johnson was an outsider,

566
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,399
Speaker 1: but he was an outsider sort of helped by insiders.

567
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 1: I think if you have a loss of control of

568
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,439
Speaker 1: the House, that maybe you'll have a true ground swell

569
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,479
Speaker 1: and it'll be interesting to see, you know, maybe there's

570
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 1: maybe it's an institutionalist like Tom Cole, who's sort of

571
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 1: of a transitional figure, kind of the way John Thune

572
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 1: is I think right now in center Republicans, but you

573
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 1: have House Democrats not crazy about you know, Jeffries really

574
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: feels very uncomfortable in this position right now. I mean,

575
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 1: I think what's happening with New York City politics has

576
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: him looking over his left shoulder constantly. Chuck Schumer seems

577
00:34:58,360 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: to be worried about his left shoulder all the time.

578
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: I'm as well. He feels like he's kind of lost

579
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 1: his touch as sort of that electability guy. The point is,

580
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 1: it's fascinating to see the reason. I think you have

581
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 1: such anger on Capitol Hill right now. And also I

582
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 1: think some unpredictability. I think this sort of weak leadership

583
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 1: that you have right now collectively means that there are

584
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,320
Speaker 1: more potential free agents on issues out there than I

585
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 1: think folks realize. We'll see what happened. I mean, we've

586
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: already had We've already had more discharge petitions this House

587
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: that I've seen in I think the previous twenty years,

588
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 1: and that you know, the more discharge petitions you have,

589
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:42,240
Speaker 1: the more you have a leader that doesn't have control

590
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 1: of their own party. So you know, if you told

591
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 1: me you get some strange bedfellows getting together on healthcare subsidies,

592
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 1: strange bedfellows getting together on tariff policy, I think all

593
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 1: of that is possible because you have right now Thune, Schumer, Jefferies,

594
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,479
Speaker 1: and Johnson do not have. You know, they can't rule

595
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 1: by fear, right, none of them can. I guess Trump

596
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: can put some fear into some of these folks, but

597
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 1: I think the fear of Trump is starting to fade,

598
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 1: as we've seen with Marjorie Taylor Green and others. And

599
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: there isn't a lot of respect for the political acumen

600
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 1: of the quartet that I've just talked about. So it

601
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,719
Speaker 1: is I'll just say, I feel like I haven't seen

602
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: this kind of collective congressional leader weakness really since that

603
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 1: sort of period in between Right and Gangridge and then

604
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: I think the period in between sort of the fall

605
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 1: of Hastert and delay before sort of Pelosi took over,

606
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 1: and that whole sort of period of lot and frist

607
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 1: really before McConnell took over. So we're in a we're

608
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:53,880
Speaker 1: definitely in a transition. I will be if you told

609
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 1: me we have four brand new leaders in January twenty

610
00:36:56,719 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 1: twenty seven, I wouldn't fully be surprised, but I definitely

611
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 1: expect that the four we have today that I think

612
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:06,879
Speaker 1: there's a good chance none of the four are there

613
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 1: by January of twenty twenty nine. Part of it is

614
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 1: I think the shelf life of congressional leader this day

615
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: is getting shorter and shorter, the impatience of political leaders,

616
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 1: especially if we're electing a different type of member of

617
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:21,839
Speaker 1: Congress and a different type of senator who are more

618
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 1: worried about communicating with the base, communicating with the public

619
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: than they are with legislating. And if we sort of

620
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 1: are our Congress gets reoriented to more sort of media

621
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:39,320
Speaker 1: savvy elected members rather than legislative savy members. It means

622
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 1: I think we're going to go through us You know,

623
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: we may cycle through quite a few congressional leaders, because

624
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,800
Speaker 1: everybody's kind of their own political leader and a political

625
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 1: party at this point, right with how we're transitioning, particularly

626
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:57,399
Speaker 1: this new generation of elected officials, and I think that's translated,

627
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 1: and it probably explains why the leaders themselves know that

628
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 1: they you know, they don't control the bully pulpit, They

629
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: don't really control the They don't they don't have that

630
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 1: much ability to prevent donors from giving money to some

631
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 1: of these folks, you know. The weakness of the political parties,

632
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 1: the weakness of the congressional leaders, it's all led to it.

633
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 1: It feels like a bit of instability in Congress right now.

634
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 1: And like I said, the possibility, I think we have

635
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 1: some we could see some strange runaway legislative compromises show

636
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 1: up in the next six months, simply due to this

637
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: weak leadership that we're all experiencing. All right, with that

638
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: good conversation, as we preview the I think the economy

639
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:46,839
Speaker 1: is going to be the big news of the week

640
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: when we find out what is the Federal Reserve going

641
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:53,240
Speaker 1: to do? What do they care about more stubborn inflation

642
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:58,280
Speaker 1: or a weakening job market. And that's essentially how Jared

643
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 1: Bernstein and I start our conversation with what concerns him,

644
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 1: and you'll be surprised he's changed his mind about what

645
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,320
Speaker 1: concerns him the most about this economy as we go forward.

646
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 1: So with that, we'll sneak at a break and we

647
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 1: come back my conversation with Jared Bernstein, and then on

648
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: the other side we'll sneak in some questions and then

649
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,360
Speaker 1: of course my long awaited sports rant on all things

650
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 1: college football. There's a reason results matter more than promises,

651
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Speaker 1: just like there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's

652
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,879
Speaker 1: largest injury law firm. For the last thirty five years,

653
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 1: they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more than half

654
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Speaker 1: a million clients. It includes cases where insurance companies offered

655
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Speaker 1: next to nothing, just hoping to get away with paying

656
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 1: as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan fought back ended

657
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 1: up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one client was

658
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 1: awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a staggering forty

659
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 1: times the amount that the insurance company originally offered. That

660
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,240
Speaker 1: original offer six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty six million,

661
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Speaker 1: six hundred at two thousand dollars so with more than

662
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Speaker 1: a thousand lawyers across the country, they know how to

663
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Speaker 1: deliver for everyday people. If you're injured, you need a lawyer,

664
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Speaker 1: you need somebody to get your back. Check out for

665
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Speaker 1: the People dot Com, Slash podcast or now Pound Law,

666
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Speaker 1: Pound five two nine law on your cell phone. And

667
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 1: remember all law firms are not the same. So check

668
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Speaker 1: out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win.

669
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: So joining me now is the former chair of the

670
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:35,399
Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors during the Biden presidency has been

671
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: he was part of the Obama presidency. He was sort

672
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 1: of correct me if I'm wrong, Jared, But you were

673
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 1: Vice President Biden's economic advisor during a period of time

674
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 1: in the Obama presidency.

675
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 2: Right, exactly, right, Yeah.

676
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 1: And you were in I mean, it's sort of like

677
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: you've been in this world, but you were. Were you

678
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:56,479
Speaker 1: always more in Biden's world?

679
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 2: Yeah? More so. I mean I was Biden's chief economist

680
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 2: whinning as vice president, basically moved over to that role

681
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 2: when he was president. I started as a member of

682
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 2: the Council of Economic Advisors and then I became chair

683
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 2: a couple of years in.

684
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:13,320
Speaker 1: What was your did you do anything in the Clinton presidency.

685
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,719
Speaker 2: Yes I did. I worked in the Labor Department in

686
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 2: the Chief Economist's office.

687
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 1: Okay, so you've been on this sort of this in

688
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: this role of moving up the governmental ladders, if you will.

689
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 2: For Frank, I think if you made a list of

690
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 2: Democrat economists in the DC area, I would be right.

691
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 1: That's one hundred th'ts that you're very funny? And which

692
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 1: economist are you? Are you on the one hand or

693
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 1: are you on the other hand?

694
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:50,280
Speaker 2: I am, I am. I try not to be that

695
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 2: that economist. I'll tell you what kind of economists I am.

696
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 2: In that sense.

697
00:41:55,480 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 3: The the most economists are problematic for politicians because they

698
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 3: explain to them why why they can't do what they

699
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 3: want to do.

700
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, yeah.

701
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,919
Speaker 2: The economist says, sir, I understand where you're coming from, ma'am,

702
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 2: I understand, but you can't do that for these reasons.

703
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 2: So I'm not that kind of economist. I try to

704
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 2: figure out, if not, you know, the optimal, let's look

705
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:27,439
Speaker 2: at third, second, third, fourth, best ways to get where

706
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 2: we want to go.

707
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 1: So it's sort of like you've got a north star,

708
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 1: how can you get Maybe this isn't the best way

709
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 1: to do it via economic policy. But you really want

710
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 1: to do it, well, here's the least damaging way to

711
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 1: do it is that do you sometimes see your job exactly?

712
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 2: So you know, let's be concrete. You want to raise

713
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 2: the minimum wage, right, So there is a level to

714
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 2: which you could raise the minimum wage that would be

715
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 2: hugely problematic, and there's a level to which you could

716
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 2: raise it that would help low wage workers a lot

717
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:57,880
Speaker 2: more than it would hurt them. So let's go to

718
00:42:57,920 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 2: the second level, not the first one.

719
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 1: That's totally totally makes sense. Well, let's just start with

720
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,399
Speaker 1: the near term and then we're going to go I

721
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 1: was intrigued. I obviously read your substack. I'm a subscriber.

722
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: I follow been reading what you've been writing lately, and

723
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 1: it is this. You noted that it seems like the

724
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 1: Trump white House is stumbling into the same problem you

725
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:27,839
Speaker 1: guys had in the Biden White House, where you want

726
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 1: to focus on the positive data, but the feeling and

727
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 1: perception of the economy is not what the data shows.

728
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 1: And I guess what would you be doing if you

729
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,760
Speaker 1: were in the Trump white House now asked to defend

730
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 1: this economy.

731
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, I wouldn't be lying. And I

732
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 2: actually think that's really kind of foundational. I mean, the

733
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 2: way we used to talk about this when we were

734
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 2: in the White House, as we would say, correctly, we

735
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 2: just got a great GDP report. We just got a

736
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 2: great jobs report, two hundred thousand jobs, three percent growth.

737
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 2: That would be part one. Part two would be, but

738
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 2: we know you're still hurting and prices are too high.

739
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 2: Part three would be We're going to do everything we

740
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 2: can to help on that. Maybe a three part message

741
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 2: is way too complicated. Maybe all people cared about was

742
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,839
Speaker 2: that part two. They're hurting, their prices are too high,

743
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,400
Speaker 2: But we didn't tell them your prices aren't too high,

744
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 2: and that things are affordable, and that affordability is a

745
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 2: democratic con job, which is what Trump said yesterday. So

746
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 2: we tried to meet people where they were, I don't

747
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 2: think particularly successfully, and I do think we talked past them,

748
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 2: but we never gas lit them. And I would argue

749
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 2: that that's what these folks are doing. B they're making

750
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 2: affordability a lot worse with all the tariffs, and of

751
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 2: course we weren't doing that.

752
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,399
Speaker 1: So you know, one of my theories as to why

753
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 1: you guys and why the former president struggled to talk

754
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 1: about the economy and understand. And I'm curious what you

755
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 1: think of this thesis. Is that particularly Joe Biden, he

756
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 1: spent a majority of his professional career in politics believing

757
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: that for the American public, the barometer for a healthy

758
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 1: economy was the unemployment rate, right, And frankly, he you know,

759
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 1: it had been forty years since inflation was had bitten

760
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 1: us as a country, had bitten us as political leaders. Yes,

761
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 1: he was certainly was there at the early you know,

762
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 1: in his first term in the US Senate, during inflation,

763
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 1: during that horrible period of inflation. But that in some

764
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 1: ways when you're and I hate to say that that

765
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: you know, but we're all human beings, You're creatures of habit, right,

766
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 1: For the longest time, it is what the public saw

767
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 1: is the unemployment. Right. Is that fair to say that

768
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 1: that maybe there was just that there was that Biden

769
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,720
Speaker 1: and maybe the wider world of Biden. And I'm curious

770
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: you're whether you've thought you might have fallen into this trap,

771
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 1: whether you were focused too much on the good news

772
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 1: on unemployment and not fully appreciating the inflation situation.

773
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 2: Well, I there's a lot in there, so let's unpack it. So,

774
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:18,399
Speaker 2: first of all, on President Biden, I think you're spot on.

775
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 2: I think he came up in terms of an economic

776
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 2: world where if the job market is strong and you're

777
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 2: at full employment, that is the most important thing you

778
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 2: can do for working class people because if the job

779
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 2: market is tight, they have bargaining cloud, bargaining power that

780
00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 2: they wouldn't otherwise have, and they can Thereby, Unions are

781
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,840
Speaker 2: obviously important to him too, but you know, unions are

782
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 2: a relatively small share of our workforce. If you get

783
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 2: the unemployment rate down, you know, below four percent, and

784
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:54,240
Speaker 2: you hold it there, that's going to be fantastic for workers.

785
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 2: And that was absolutely the world he came up in.

786
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:00,800
Speaker 2: And I believe he thought that if we have the jobs,

787
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:04,839
Speaker 2: that if we have the tailwind of a strong job

788
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 2: market behind us, you know, economically, we should generally be

789
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:11,280
Speaker 2: pretty fine, and especially if growth is strong as well.

790
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 2: Of course, we hadn't seen all that thinking evolved over

791
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 2: a period when the average inflation rate was you know,

792
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 2: between one and two percent, and so when the pandemic

793
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 2: came and you had the collision of constrained supply chains

794
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 2: and strong demand, partly juiced by fiscal policy. I will

795
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 2: admit that that led to an inflation we hadn't seen

796
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,359
Speaker 2: in forty years. And yeah, sure, I mean I think

797
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 2: it's kind of acceptably not acceptable as the wrong way.

798
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:44,720
Speaker 2: I think it's intellectually understandable that, you know, a forty

799
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 2: you might not be quite have a forty year problem

800
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:53,359
Speaker 2: in your worldview relative to one that has been, you know,

801
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 2: really foundational fundamental to your to your understanding through most

802
00:47:58,520 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 2: of your career.

803
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 1: Take me through your convers back when you were in

804
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 1: the administration about the inflation issue. I mean, you know,

805
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 1: we heard that phrase transitory a lot early on in

806
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 1: the first part. And you know, as a it's sort

807
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,239
Speaker 1: of my own armchair, you know, economist, I would say,

808
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 1: I'm not a lawyer, I'm not an economist, but I've

809
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:22,759
Speaker 1: had to play one on TV for a long time, right,

810
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 1: or certainly I've got to be just smart enough about

811
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 1: it to ask the right questions. I hope, and I

812
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 1: understood what you guys are trying to communicate, which is, hey, look,

813
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: this is a unique this is this inflation issue isn't

814
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 1: all just because we've handed out too much money. This

815
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 1: inflation issue we've kinked a hose, and all of a

816
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 1: sudden we unkink the hose, and here comes to supplies

817
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 1: and then and it's just doing all sorts of haywire things,

818
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 1: and it's like a bouncing ball. It's eventually going to

819
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 1: stop being hugely bouncing and eventually it's going to get there.

820
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:00,880
Speaker 1: But it was pretty stubborn, and it's still been pretty stubborn.

821
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 1: And I guess I'm curious everything you guys applied to it.

822
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 1: Did you think the inflation rate would be better than

823
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:10,720
Speaker 1: it is today, better than it was even before tariff

824
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 1: liberation day? I mean, I totally accept the premise that

825
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: once he put tariffs into the economy, we no longer

826
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 1: can talk about the Biden economy. It is his economy.

827
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 1: But pre tariff that inflation rate was still stubbornly high.

828
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:29,319
Speaker 1: How long did you assume, discounting the tariff situation, that

829
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 1: we were going to have this stubborn high inflation rate?

830
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 1: Because I think about the seventies, Jared, and it's like, man,

831
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 1: Tariff's destroyed three presidencies. I could argue, right Nixon is

832
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 1: you know, he survives Watergate. If it's a better economy,

833
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: Ford wins if it's a better economy, Garter wins reelection.

834
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 1: If it's a better economy.

835
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 2: You mean inflation, you said, teriff Yeah, No, I'm.

836
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 1: At inflation, Yeah, inflation. What I'm trying to get at is,

837
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 1: you know, sort of disc I don't want to I know,

838
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 1: the minute he put all these tariffs on there, it

839
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 1: sort of it sort of could screw with forecasting. But

840
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:06,440
Speaker 1: three April first there of this year, it was still

841
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 1: stubbornly high. How long do you think it's going to

842
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 1: take to get that inflation rate down? And again this

843
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 1: is assuming we had a normal tariff policy.

844
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 2: Without tariff policy, I think inflation by the end of

845
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:23,359
Speaker 2: this year, which we're now at the end of this year,

846
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 2: would instead of being I think the last scene the

847
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:32,360
Speaker 2: core inflationary measures that the FED looks at were closer

848
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:34,840
Speaker 2: to three than to two. I think they'd be a

849
00:50:34,840 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 2: lot closer to two than to three. I think you'd

850
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 2: be looking at inflation. I think the core was last

851
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:41,800
Speaker 2: seen at two seven. I think it would be around

852
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:43,080
Speaker 2: two to two two two.

853
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 1: Think this is a half percentage point that's the teriffs

854
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 1: have at it.

855
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 2: I know I've seen point seven, I've seen point five.

856
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:53,280
Speaker 2: I think point five is a good conservative estimate. So frankly,

857
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:56,839
Speaker 2: I actually think that inflation was behaving in a way

858
00:50:56,880 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 2: that made sense to me. Starting in twenty twenty three.

859
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 2: It was coming down. I mean, just if you look

860
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,919
Speaker 2: at the graphic of year over year inflation, it goes

861
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 2: up a mountain, and that, you know, that was a

862
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 2: traumatic mountain for us. Let me tell you, I vividly

863
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:13,279
Speaker 2: remember the night. You know, we get the data a

864
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 2: day before it comes out. I remember the night when

865
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 2: we got the inflation report. It was June of twenty two,

866
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:20,360
Speaker 2: and it was nine percent, and you know, we lost

867
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 2: our you know what. But the other side of the

868
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 2: mountain it came down justice, justice, just as quickly. And

869
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:31,320
Speaker 2: and really what you said earlier is completely accurate, which

870
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 2: is that it was the collision of a supply shortfall

871
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:39,799
Speaker 2: and very strong demand, particularly for manufactured goods. I mean,

872
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:42,759
Speaker 2: we were we were tracing numbers that showed that the

873
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:46,319
Speaker 2: consumer spending share of manufacturing was higher than it had

874
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 2: ever been. And of course people weren't interacting with services.

875
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 2: They couldn't, so they wanted to build out the new

876
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 2: home office and get exercise equipment. At the same time,

877
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 2: all that stuff was jammed, and at the same time

878
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 2: they had both excess savings so they were flush, and

879
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 2: a lot of fiscal support so they were flush. So

880
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 2: by twenty twenty two, I would argue that I had

881
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 2: a very good understanding of where inflation was. I thought

882
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:15,360
Speaker 2: it was transitory in the sense of long transitory. You know,

883
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 2: it wasn't going to come down as quickly as we

884
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:18,800
Speaker 2: wanted it to. But I knew it was going to

885
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 2: come down. And one reason for that, which is very

886
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:25,240
Speaker 2: distinctly different than the nineteen seventies, is that this mysterious

887
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 2: calculation called inflation expectations were well anchored. In the nineteen seventies,

888
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 2: key setters of prices and wages didn't believe inflation was

889
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 2: going to go back down, whereas in the COVID inflation

890
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 2: they did. Everybody saw that this was a shock. The

891
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 2: FED was still in charge, inflation expectations were still well anchored,

892
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 2: so I knew we'd get back down to target. At

893
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 2: least I thought we would before the tariffs came on.

894
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 1: Well, that brings me to now in this decision of

895
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:57,680
Speaker 1: the Fed, and you actually framed it pretty well in

896
00:52:57,719 --> 00:52:59,879
Speaker 1: one of your substecks, which is, you know, the FED

897
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 1: has a dual mandate, and it's in contradiction. Right, we

898
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 1: have a stubborn inflation rate, but we now have a

899
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:10,439
Speaker 1: weakening jobs market. What should be the focus of the Fed?

900
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:14,840
Speaker 2: Well, when I wrote that piece about four days ago,

901
00:53:15,440 --> 00:53:18,800
Speaker 2: I said, I said, I think it's fifty two forty

902
00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:23,320
Speaker 2: eight inflation. That is the FED, I argued, very close call,

903
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 2: but that at their meeting in December ninth and tenth,

904
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 2: I'm a little more worried about how sticky and high

905
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:32,799
Speaker 2: inflation is, in no small part because I'm looking at

906
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 2: services inflation, which is sticky and high, about a point

907
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 2: above where you'd like it to be, and that's not

908
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 2: really directly connected to the tariffs. And you know a

909
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 2: number of people are like, well, aren't you worried about

910
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 2: the job market and the fact that the unemployment rate

911
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:50,160
Speaker 2: has climbed. It's a point above where it was in

912
00:53:50,200 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 2: April of twenty three. It's four point four percent. It

913
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:56,080
Speaker 2: was three point four percent in April of twenty three.

914
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:58,799
Speaker 2: People say, well, four point four isn't that high. Well,

915
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 2: it's pretty high. I but it used to be three

916
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 2: point four. So you know, this morning we learned that

917
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: the ADP the payroll processing, private payroll people. You know that,

918
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 2: according to them, payroll employment had a negative handle. In

919
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:18,439
Speaker 2: November it fell by forty thousand. So now I'm really

920
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:22,120
Speaker 2: at a coin flip. But you know, I think probably

921
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:23,759
Speaker 2: i'd want to sit at that table and hear what

922
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 2: people said. I think I probably am a little more

923
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 2: worried about sticky inflation than the average person right now.

924
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:36,759
Speaker 1: It's interesting because you have, I mean, what is your

925
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:40,399
Speaker 1: understanding of why we have a job market that is

926
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 1: that is potentially going negative? I mean, is it? I mean,

927
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 1: what it appears to me is you have a lot

928
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 1: of big companies who are trying to figure out what

929
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 1: kind of efficiencies AI is going to bring in. Right now,

930
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 1: they're not filling heads. They're not cutting jobs, but they're

931
00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 1: not filling heads until they figure out how many heads

932
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 1: can they avoid having to fill? How good is this

933
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 1: AI transition? I am? I am? I sort of summarized.

934
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,239
Speaker 2: Here again, I think you're you're spat on And I'm

935
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 2: going to tell you something that I think is really

936
00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 2: worrisome that I haven't had enough of a chance to

937
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:17,120
Speaker 2: talk about. So I'll get into that in a second,

938
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 2: which is related to what you just said, Look, this

939
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:23,440
Speaker 2: job market is often described as low high or low fire,

940
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 2: which is what you just said. We have a very

941
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 2: low hiring rate. It's very difficult for people coming into

942
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 2: the job market to get work. We're seeing unemployment to rate.

943
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 1: I got a graduating senior in college. Trust me, she's

944
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 1: already stressed. She's got keep telling her you got another

945
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 1: six months relaxed. Yeah, pretty stressed out.

946
00:55:43,320 --> 00:55:46,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, you should tell her that the you know, the

947
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 2: unemployment rate for college graduates is still you know, a

948
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:51,920
Speaker 2: lot lower than for non college gradh although for the

949
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 2: newly minted ones it is. It is too high for

950
00:55:54,640 --> 00:55:58,279
Speaker 2: exactly the reasons we're saying. We haven't seen big layoffs yet,

951
00:55:58,760 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 2: and you can't have a recession with layoffs. So I

952
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:06,160
Speaker 2: think that the uncertainty around both the tariffs, the impact

953
00:56:06,160 --> 00:56:10,080
Speaker 2: of AI, and also deportations are all one reason we're

954
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:15,759
Speaker 2: stuck in a low, higher, low fire labor market. It

955
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:18,240
Speaker 2: is the case that when you have fewer people coming

956
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 2: into the job market because of diminished immigration, you actually

957
00:56:21,520 --> 00:56:24,279
Speaker 2: don't need as many jobs to keep the unemployment rate

958
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 2: from going up. That's called the break even rate. And

959
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:28,879
Speaker 2: when I was in the White House, the break even

960
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 2: rate was, you know, one hundred and fifty thousand. Now

961
00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:35,560
Speaker 2: it's half of that because the immigration impacts and aging

962
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 2: boomers are reducing labor supply, but we still have labor

963
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:45,399
Speaker 2: demand weaker than labor supply, and that's why unemployment has

964
00:56:45,440 --> 00:56:48,239
Speaker 2: been going up. Now on the AI point, here's the

965
00:56:48,239 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 2: thing I wanted to say, because of exactly what you

966
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:55,799
Speaker 2: just said, employers are trying to figure out how many

967
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 2: people they can reduce, what kind of their headcount they

968
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:01,319
Speaker 2: can reduce because of the work that AI can do,

969
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:04,399
Speaker 2: which they're confused about, and they haven't really been able

970
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:07,239
Speaker 2: to figure it out. The worst thing that could happen

971
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:10,760
Speaker 2: right now would be a recession with a lot of layoffs.

972
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 2: And the reason is is that when we've seen this

973
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 2: is an historical observation, when we've seen technology displacing workers

974
00:57:22,480 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 2: technology is that it's most disemploying when you're in a

975
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 2: downturn because because employers lay off a big chunk of

976
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:36,280
Speaker 2: their workforce and the question becomes how few can I

977
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:40,400
Speaker 2: hire back? Right right right now, they're stuck with what

978
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 2: they've got and they don't want to lay a bunch

979
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 2: of people off because they just don't know where it's going.

980
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 2: But man, if the demand falls out from this situation

981
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:51,080
Speaker 2: and they're in a situation where they lay off twenty

982
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:53,400
Speaker 2: five percent of the workforce, they're going to be thinking

983
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:55,760
Speaker 2: I might only be to I might just be able

984
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:58,200
Speaker 2: to bring back five percent. You know, just a few

985
00:57:58,240 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 2: of those workers and get a.

986
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:04,600
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1009
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1010
00:59:19,280 --> 00:59:25,680
Speaker 1: percent off. Look, I'm pretty convinced that twenty twenty eight.

1011
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:28,160
Speaker 1: I don't think we're it's going to be. I think

1012
00:59:28,280 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 1: we're going to see it percolate in twenty twenty six.

1013
00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 1: But I think twenty twenty eight as a campaign conversation,

1014
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:38,000
Speaker 1: as a narrative, is sort of what voters fear of

1015
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:44,760
Speaker 1: AI displacement is going to be A is going to

1016
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 1: be a demand on candidates to have a plan. Look,

1017
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,680
Speaker 1: we can debate whether this is going to happen the

1018
00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 1: next three years or we're still ten years away from this.

1019
00:59:54,320 --> 01:00:00,920
Speaker 1: And I devour every bit of forecasting I can find

1020
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 1: on this. And you know, you have these different AI

1021
01:00:03,880 --> 01:00:07,440
Speaker 1: you know, sort of doom, the doom, the doom and

1022
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:10,720
Speaker 1: gloom folks ais. You know, I sort of I'm pro

1023
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 1: human race, meaning I think we are not going to

1024
01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:16,800
Speaker 1: allow ourselves to be replaced by robots like we're we're

1025
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 1: going to We're We're a pretty impressive species. We survive

1026
01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 1: a lot. You know, we're not going to let robots

1027
01:00:24,400 --> 01:00:28,360
Speaker 1: displace us. But the fear of this, I think is going.

1028
01:00:28,480 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 1: So Look, you probably already are talking to potential presidential candidates,

1029
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:37,160
Speaker 1: people wanting to just get your advice of you know,

1030
01:00:37,280 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 1: what's a feasible way. I mean, what did we do

1031
01:00:40,640 --> 01:00:45,440
Speaker 1: wrong during the transition to all these free trade agreements

1032
01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:49,160
Speaker 1: in the in the late eighties and early nineties with

1033
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:52,560
Speaker 1: and all of them included promises of money for job

1034
01:00:52,600 --> 01:00:55,320
Speaker 1: retraining and all of this. It didn't really work.

1035
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:58,080
Speaker 2: I can answer this question for you. It's a great question.

1036
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:00,480
Speaker 1: Is that where AI is going? I mean, yeah, I

1037
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:03,280
Speaker 1: assume you know I've already heard Mark Kelly went out

1038
01:01:03,280 --> 01:01:05,600
Speaker 1: there and said recently, I guess we ought to have

1039
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:09,440
Speaker 1: a fund where these AI companies ought to be taxed.

1040
01:01:09,600 --> 01:01:13,840
Speaker 1: Maybe you tax the data centers and there's a special

1041
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 1: tax of the data centers that just goes to job

1042
01:01:16,320 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 1: displacement issues. But what does this policy look like? What

1043
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:22,440
Speaker 1: do you think is feasible here?

1044
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:25,560
Speaker 2: So I have an answer to question. I have an

1045
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:28,040
Speaker 2: answer to this question. First of all, let me say

1046
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 2: the following, which you would know better than me. But

1047
01:01:29,880 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 2: I'll bet I'm right about this. If you talk to

1048
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 2: the average economists. I spend two months of the year

1049
01:01:38,600 --> 01:01:40,760
Speaker 2: now at Stanford. So if you're out, if you're in

1050
01:01:41,040 --> 01:01:44,160
Speaker 2: Silicon Valley, if you talk to a lot of people

1051
01:01:44,240 --> 01:01:48,080
Speaker 2: in the Beltway about AI, they're a lot more excited

1052
01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 2: than the average voter is.

1053
01:01:50,120 --> 01:01:53,000
Speaker 1: So that's one assertion, Jared, It's remarkable. I find it

1054
01:01:53,120 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 1: remark we as a country, we are the most negative

1055
01:01:57,840 --> 01:02:03,000
Speaker 1: about AI collectively then other First world countries. I've watched this.

1056
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:06,720
Speaker 1: It's fascinating how negative we are about it. So I

1057
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 1: think it's because social media destroyed us, and I think

1058
01:02:10,400 --> 01:02:14,720
Speaker 1: people fear the same geniuses that brought us social media

1059
01:02:15,200 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 1: are being allowed to run amuck on AI.

1060
01:02:17,440 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 2: Good luck, By the way you're speaking, to someone who

1061
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:24,120
Speaker 2: just finished watching the Netflix show Adolescens last night, So,

1062
01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:28,800
Speaker 2: oh my god, talk about social media and its distortions.

1063
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:33,200
Speaker 2: But but I'm with you. So we are on you know,

1064
01:02:33,280 --> 01:02:35,600
Speaker 2: we are. We are shoulder to shoulder on this. And

1065
01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:39,880
Speaker 2: one of the things I tell people is UH members

1066
01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:42,640
Speaker 2: who are thinking of working on the figuring out trying

1067
01:02:42,640 --> 01:02:44,840
Speaker 2: to figure out how to run on this is precisely

1068
01:02:44,960 --> 01:02:48,120
Speaker 2: that that. Don't think everybody out there thinks AI is

1069
01:02:48,560 --> 01:02:51,400
Speaker 2: as cool as you do. They're threatened by it. And

1070
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 2: you just mentioned two things. You mentioned the lack of

1071
01:02:55,440 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 2: preparation for people who were hurt by expanded globalization in

1072
01:03:00,440 --> 01:03:04,600
Speaker 2: the nineties when China and the two thousands, when China,

1073
01:03:05,080 --> 01:03:08,680
Speaker 2: you know, at Bill Clinton's beets, China joins the WTO

1074
01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:11,800
Speaker 2: and we get our buds kicked and no one was

1075
01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:15,320
Speaker 2: ready for that. And then the ignoring of the impact

1076
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:22,640
Speaker 2: of social media to two incredibly portentious existential examples of

1077
01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:29,200
Speaker 2: politicians failing to create guard rails to protect people from

1078
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 2: a massive shock. And so you know, won't be tied

1079
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:36,760
Speaker 2: us if we make that mistake again.

1080
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:42,280
Speaker 1: Now I think Jared, we already have. I'm sorry, I

1081
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 1: look at it. This hands off you know, I, you know,

1082
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:51,240
Speaker 1: we were, well, what you imagine can you imagine if

1083
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 1: we had outsourced the Manhattan Project?

1084
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:55,439
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1085
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:57,439
Speaker 1: But what this crazy woman?

1086
01:03:57,920 --> 01:04:01,760
Speaker 2: What do you said yourself minute ago? Correctly that we

1087
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:05,600
Speaker 2: do not yet know the extent to which AI is

1088
01:04:05,720 --> 01:04:08,840
Speaker 2: going to displace people in the workforce. What you do

1089
01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:11,360
Speaker 2: in that situation is you hope for the best and

1090
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:14,240
Speaker 2: you plan for the worst. Now, what we didn't do

1091
01:04:14,600 --> 01:04:18,360
Speaker 2: in the globalization era when globalization was taking off. We

1092
01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:21,720
Speaker 2: hoped for the best and we didn't plan for the worst.

1093
01:04:22,040 --> 01:04:24,680
Speaker 2: And in fact, we did the thing that economists always do.

1094
01:04:25,120 --> 01:04:28,240
Speaker 2: Here's a here's a curse word that economists use all

1095
01:04:28,280 --> 01:04:29,600
Speaker 2: the time. Transition.

1096
01:04:30,280 --> 01:04:33,920
Speaker 1: They'll be a transition, well transitions to it a lot

1097
01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:37,000
Speaker 1: of work there. Transition means mister pop are going to

1098
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:39,200
Speaker 1: lose their entire livelihood, but.

1099
01:04:40,120 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 2: They'll be a transition every period. But we'll be fun.

1100
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:47,240
Speaker 2: So when you hear an economist Blase talk about transition,

1101
01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 2: run for the hill. So so you don't so what

1102
01:04:51,520 --> 01:04:53,840
Speaker 2: we need here in my So here's the policy that

1103
01:04:53,960 --> 01:04:56,439
Speaker 2: I'm trying to get people interested in. It may sound

1104
01:04:56,440 --> 01:04:58,840
Speaker 2: a little radical, but I don't think it is a

1105
01:04:58,960 --> 01:05:03,800
Speaker 2: job's guarantee, a federal jobs guarantee if you were displaced

1106
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 2: from your job because of AI. There's actually a lot

1107
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:09,400
Speaker 2: of stuff that needs to get done in this country,

1108
01:05:09,720 --> 01:05:12,920
Speaker 2: and I can't do a lot of it. There's building infrastructure,

1109
01:05:13,280 --> 01:05:17,840
Speaker 2: there's human care, there's helping in the healthcare sector. There

1110
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:20,240
Speaker 2: is a lot of work that needs to be done.

1111
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:22,880
Speaker 2: Many of these sectors are underfunded, in part because so

1112
01:05:23,000 --> 01:05:26,880
Speaker 2: much is going into AI and data centers. We need

1113
01:05:27,000 --> 01:05:31,520
Speaker 2: to have a job guarantee program wherein if you're displaced

1114
01:05:31,560 --> 01:05:34,560
Speaker 2: to AI, we can quickly get you back up and

1115
01:05:34,680 --> 01:05:42,480
Speaker 2: running with remunerative, dignity inducing employment. So it's easier said

1116
01:05:42,520 --> 01:05:46,640
Speaker 2: than done. But we've had programs like that in the past.

1117
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:48,280
Speaker 2: We've just never really implemented them.

1118
01:05:48,400 --> 01:05:51,080
Speaker 1: It was just gonna well, I mean that was the

1119
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:51,840
Speaker 1: New Deal.

1120
01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:55,640
Speaker 2: No exactly, that was the New Deal, and that actually

1121
01:05:55,720 --> 01:05:57,960
Speaker 2: worked out well. Now, we tried something in the eighties

1122
01:05:58,000 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 2: called SITA that was a much scaleback version of that.

1123
01:06:00,800 --> 01:06:02,480
Speaker 2: And you know, if you go to the Center. I'm

1124
01:06:02,480 --> 01:06:05,000
Speaker 2: also a policy fellow at the Center for American Progress,

1125
01:06:05,920 --> 01:06:08,640
Speaker 2: you know, numerous years ago they were talking about a

1126
01:06:08,720 --> 01:06:11,120
Speaker 2: jobs guarantee and have documents about how to do it.

1127
01:06:11,280 --> 01:06:13,720
Speaker 2: So it's not something no one's ever thought about before,

1128
01:06:13,720 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 2: and I'd like to dust that policy off and to

1129
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:17,200
Speaker 2: get people thinking about it.

1130
01:06:17,480 --> 01:06:19,840
Speaker 1: Would you do a jobs guarantee before you would do

1131
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 1: universal basic income?

1132
01:06:21,880 --> 01:06:26,240
Speaker 2: Yes? I think universal basic income pales beside a job

1133
01:06:26,320 --> 01:06:28,760
Speaker 2: guarantee because people don't just want income. They want to

1134
01:06:28,960 --> 01:06:31,720
Speaker 2: be productive, they want to work, they want to contribute.

1135
01:06:32,440 --> 01:06:35,760
Speaker 1: They want community. I mean, in some ways, work is

1136
01:06:35,800 --> 01:06:39,240
Speaker 1: another community. And I think one of the things were

1137
01:06:39,400 --> 01:06:44,640
Speaker 1: consistently and constantly crave is community. I want to tackle

1138
01:06:44,760 --> 01:06:46,000
Speaker 1: something else that you spend.

1139
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:48,160
Speaker 2: By the way, just aside, I think we're getting way

1140
01:06:48,240 --> 01:06:49,920
Speaker 2: too much of our community online.

1141
01:06:50,920 --> 01:06:53,640
Speaker 1: Of course, well you know, it gets it something. You know,

1142
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:57,760
Speaker 1: it's funny to go back to the social media metaphor

1143
01:06:57,800 --> 01:07:01,520
Speaker 1: that I was using about AI. You know, we don't

1144
01:07:01,560 --> 01:07:05,000
Speaker 1: agree collectively on a lot of things in America these days,

1145
01:07:05,840 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 1: but there is one issue that is united left and right.

1146
01:07:10,000 --> 01:07:12,280
Speaker 1: It hasn't mattered if it was a very red state

1147
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 1: legislature or a very blue state legislature. They have all

1148
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:21,160
Speaker 1: instituted the cell phone bandoned schools in some form or another. Right.

1149
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:26,280
Speaker 1: And you know, the Libertarians have been convinced right those

1150
01:07:26,320 --> 01:07:28,439
Speaker 1: that are worried about, you know, single moms and single

1151
01:07:28,520 --> 01:07:32,920
Speaker 1: parents having access to everybody's realizing, hey, this has been terrible,

1152
01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:38,280
Speaker 1: and we don't often. So that tells me something here

1153
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:41,480
Speaker 1: that in some ways the public is wiser about this,

1154
01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:44,840
Speaker 1: and they usually are. I always say, the electorate, the voters,

1155
01:07:44,880 --> 01:07:47,480
Speaker 1: you know, voters have that voters are telling you something.

1156
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:49,600
Speaker 1: Listen to them. Just because you don't like the outcome,

1157
01:07:49,920 --> 01:07:52,760
Speaker 1: they're telling you something, Listen to what they're saying. Of course,

1158
01:07:54,240 --> 01:07:58,800
Speaker 1: so they it is. It makes me think that actually

1159
01:08:00,080 --> 01:08:04,800
Speaker 1: getting tough on tech and putting guardrails on AI, I

1160
01:08:05,000 --> 01:08:08,560
Speaker 1: think is going to be a necessity for any successful

1161
01:08:08,640 --> 01:08:11,480
Speaker 1: candidate for office in twenty eight And I don't think

1162
01:08:11,520 --> 01:08:15,200
Speaker 1: it's and I don't think it is. This is something

1163
01:08:15,280 --> 01:08:17,559
Speaker 1: that's just a d side thing or an our side thing.

1164
01:08:17,640 --> 01:08:20,920
Speaker 1: I think this the fact that you have this collective

1165
01:08:21,000 --> 01:08:23,680
Speaker 1: concern about what phones and social media has done to

1166
01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:28,719
Speaker 1: our kids means we realize these technological changes have huge

1167
01:08:29,360 --> 01:08:33,559
Speaker 1: impacts on our lives. And I don't think we fully

1168
01:08:35,840 --> 01:08:38,639
Speaker 1: you know, we as you said we in this case,

1169
01:08:38,680 --> 01:08:43,000
Speaker 1: we're so excited about what's happening that we're you know,

1170
01:08:43,360 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 1: and I guess this is exactly what life was like

1171
01:08:45,520 --> 01:08:47,679
Speaker 1: in the nineteen teens, in the nineteen twenty.

1172
01:08:48,800 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think all of that's correct. I mean, I

1173
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:53,280
Speaker 2: think there's another side of the issue that you have

1174
01:08:53,479 --> 01:08:56,240
Speaker 2: to think about if you're advising politicians or you're thinking

1175
01:08:56,280 --> 01:09:00,320
Speaker 2: about twenty six or twenty eight, which is that if

1176
01:09:00,439 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 2: you talk to the companies themselves, even if you're saying, hey,

1177
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:09,240
Speaker 2: and you you mentioned Mark Kelly before, I'm in Virginia.

1178
01:09:09,560 --> 01:09:12,360
Speaker 2: At this point, thirty nine percent of the energy in

1179
01:09:12,479 --> 01:09:15,960
Speaker 2: Virginia that's being produced the electricity is being used by

1180
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:16,719
Speaker 2: data centers.

1181
01:09:17,000 --> 01:09:19,560
Speaker 1: Oh, and don't think that they're not going to get demonized,

1182
01:09:19,960 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 1: yes on cost issues. Yeah.

1183
01:09:22,000 --> 01:09:24,200
Speaker 2: So you know the thing is, you go to the

1184
01:09:24,280 --> 01:09:27,240
Speaker 2: AI companies, you go to the data centers, and you

1185
01:09:27,400 --> 01:09:29,400
Speaker 2: tell them you're going to have to pair back, You're

1186
01:09:29,439 --> 01:09:31,320
Speaker 2: going to have to have guardrails, You're going to have

1187
01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:35,960
Speaker 2: to compensate the innocent bystanders who electricity bills are getting

1188
01:09:36,000 --> 01:09:38,000
Speaker 2: whacked by you. And some of them are going to

1189
01:09:38,040 --> 01:09:40,720
Speaker 2: say to you, fine, I'll go to Saudi Arabia. And

1190
01:09:40,880 --> 01:09:43,240
Speaker 2: you know that's the political challenge that I was dealing

1191
01:09:43,280 --> 01:09:44,920
Speaker 2: with in the White House. You know, we were we

1192
01:09:45,040 --> 01:09:48,000
Speaker 2: were thinking about these issues, and you know, these companies

1193
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:51,280
Speaker 2: were threatening us with you know, with exits. Frankly, I'll

1194
01:09:51,320 --> 01:09:54,120
Speaker 2: take that threat because of what you're describing is so

1195
01:09:54,720 --> 01:09:57,559
Speaker 2: important to put those guardrails in place.

1196
01:10:00,640 --> 01:10:03,320
Speaker 1: Well, let's see. I mean, I keep you know, I

1197
01:10:03,439 --> 01:10:06,080
Speaker 1: keep thinking there is a left right coalition here that

1198
01:10:06,240 --> 01:10:09,000
Speaker 1: does want to put some guardrails on tech, right when

1199
01:10:09,000 --> 01:10:12,000
Speaker 1: you get people like Lena Khan and Steve Bannon both

1200
01:10:12,439 --> 01:10:16,640
Speaker 1: concerned about this concentration of power. But it hasn't translated.

1201
01:10:16,720 --> 01:10:20,360
Speaker 1: I mean this, this is just such an effectless Congress,

1202
01:10:21,479 --> 01:10:24,719
Speaker 1: and frankly it hasn't mattered the last ten years. Congress

1203
01:10:25,040 --> 01:10:31,360
Speaker 1: has been hesitant to get into the regulatory Well, they'll

1204
01:10:31,400 --> 01:10:33,760
Speaker 1: do oversight, but they won't do the regulatory change.

1205
01:10:33,760 --> 01:10:35,519
Speaker 2: I mean, Crypto is a good analogy. I mean, I

1206
01:10:35,600 --> 01:10:38,519
Speaker 2: think crypto is largely an accident going out to happen

1207
01:10:38,600 --> 01:10:42,560
Speaker 2: in terms of systemic risk to the economy. But what

1208
01:10:42,720 --> 01:10:45,240
Speaker 2: did the crypto bros do? They lobbied up faster than

1209
01:10:45,320 --> 01:10:49,000
Speaker 2: any industry I've ever seen. So, you know, these data

1210
01:10:49,080 --> 01:10:52,479
Speaker 2: centers are the MAG seven. I just looked this up.

1211
01:10:52,720 --> 01:10:55,519
Speaker 2: The market capitalization of the MAG seven is twenty two

1212
01:10:55,600 --> 01:10:59,200
Speaker 2: trillion dollars, so you know, they have all the resources

1213
01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:05,400
Speaker 2: they need to purchase all the all the deregulation they want.

1214
01:11:06,040 --> 01:11:09,400
Speaker 1: If you strip out the Magnificent Seven, it's the rest

1215
01:11:09,439 --> 01:11:13,400
Speaker 1: of our is the is the rest of the publicly

1216
01:11:13,479 --> 01:11:17,680
Speaker 1: traded companies. I mean, I've seen some analysis that say,

1217
01:11:17,680 --> 01:11:21,720
Speaker 1: you know what, we're no companies. Companies aren't doing that well,

1218
01:11:22,200 --> 01:11:24,800
Speaker 1: So I got but the Big seven is propping everything up.

1219
01:11:24,920 --> 01:11:26,760
Speaker 2: So I've got a great It's funny you should ask

1220
01:11:26,840 --> 01:11:28,920
Speaker 2: that because I recently backed out a number that I

1221
01:11:28,960 --> 01:11:33,679
Speaker 2: thought was really really compelling answer to that question, unless

1222
01:11:33,720 --> 01:11:35,960
Speaker 2: it's too obscure, So I'll test it on you and

1223
01:11:36,000 --> 01:11:38,439
Speaker 2: see if it works. Now this is a few days old,

1224
01:11:38,520 --> 01:11:41,960
Speaker 2: but I'm sure it doesn't matter. If you look at

1225
01:11:42,000 --> 01:11:45,280
Speaker 2: the year over year increase in the S and P

1226
01:11:45,400 --> 01:11:50,840
Speaker 2: five hundred, it's eleven percent. If you then that's that

1227
01:11:51,040 --> 01:11:54,720
Speaker 2: that's weighted, meaning that you waited by market capitalization. So

1228
01:11:54,840 --> 01:11:57,519
Speaker 2: that's how the S and P is measured every day,

1229
01:11:58,040 --> 01:11:59,120
Speaker 2: waited the.

1230
01:11:59,160 --> 01:12:02,680
Speaker 1: Biggest cap companies. I mean, you know, I have this

1231
01:12:02,840 --> 01:12:06,160
Speaker 1: thesis that that the reason we've seen crypto prices plummet

1232
01:12:06,400 --> 01:12:09,960
Speaker 1: is that you know, the crypto folks realize that this

1233
01:12:10,120 --> 01:12:12,720
Speaker 1: is probably not a real asset, they hurry up and

1234
01:12:12,840 --> 01:12:14,840
Speaker 1: sell it and then buy the Magnificent seven.

1235
01:12:15,200 --> 01:12:18,040
Speaker 2: Right, So the Magnificent seven get a huge weight. I

1236
01:12:18,080 --> 01:12:20,400
Speaker 2: mean they're not old public like AI is obviously still

1237
01:12:20,400 --> 01:12:22,680
Speaker 2: a private company. But all I'm saying is that that

1238
01:12:22,840 --> 01:12:26,120
Speaker 2: eleven percent increase in the S and P is a

1239
01:12:26,200 --> 01:12:29,960
Speaker 2: weighted measure weighted by market capitalization. You can also look

1240
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:33,439
Speaker 2: at an unweighted measure of the S and P that's

1241
01:12:33,680 --> 01:12:38,839
Speaker 2: up point eight percent over the last year. Eleven percent weighted,

1242
01:12:39,240 --> 01:12:42,719
Speaker 2: point eight unweighted. We have an S and P seven

1243
01:12:42,840 --> 01:12:45,760
Speaker 2: and an SMB four ninety three, and the SNB four

1244
01:12:45,880 --> 01:12:47,240
Speaker 2: ninety three is pretty flat.

1245
01:12:48,880 --> 01:12:50,920
Speaker 1: Well, that tells you it's flatter, actually negative.

1246
01:12:52,120 --> 01:12:55,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think I think it's uh, I

1247
01:12:55,280 --> 01:12:57,720
Speaker 2: think it's flat. I mean I've looked at the I've

1248
01:12:57,760 --> 01:13:00,680
Speaker 2: actually looked at the four ninety three whatever it is,

1249
01:13:00,800 --> 01:13:03,880
Speaker 2: because again not every one of the seven. But yeah,

1250
01:13:03,920 --> 01:13:05,400
Speaker 2: it's flat. It's pretty flat.

1251
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:10,760
Speaker 1: Let me get into a couple other issues. That one

1252
01:13:10,840 --> 01:13:14,720
Speaker 1: that you wrote about and talks about healthcare, and look,

1253
01:13:15,240 --> 01:13:20,479
Speaker 1: we this is such the weirdest issue because it's it's

1254
01:13:21,280 --> 01:13:24,960
Speaker 1: not a private sector. You know, it's not a private enterprise.

1255
01:13:25,080 --> 01:13:28,840
Speaker 1: It's a huge part of the economy, but it's it's

1256
01:13:29,160 --> 01:13:31,599
Speaker 1: super regulated. But at the same time, it's this sort

1257
01:13:31,640 --> 01:13:36,120
Speaker 1: of public private and it's a mess, right And you know,

1258
01:13:36,240 --> 01:13:39,360
Speaker 1: I look yeah, I look at I'll just take my

1259
01:13:39,479 --> 01:13:42,760
Speaker 1: little observation, which act actually is going to be through

1260
01:13:42,760 --> 01:13:47,160
Speaker 1: the prism of college football. But the University of Miami

1261
01:13:47,360 --> 01:13:50,519
Speaker 1: is able to spend a lot more money on football

1262
01:13:50,600 --> 01:13:55,040
Speaker 1: now because they're making so much money. And they're not alone.

1263
01:13:55,080 --> 01:13:58,040
Speaker 1: This is a lot of universities. A lot of universities

1264
01:13:58,080 --> 01:14:03,280
Speaker 1: are funding some of their high priced outlays, whether it's sports, building,

1265
01:14:03,320 --> 01:14:06,519
Speaker 1: new buildings, et cetera, because they have health systems that

1266
01:14:06,640 --> 01:14:11,559
Speaker 1: are nonprofits, Jared, who are making money hand over fist.

1267
01:14:11,680 --> 01:14:14,080
Speaker 1: Because it's a nonprofit, you got to immediately take whatever

1268
01:14:14,160 --> 01:14:16,719
Speaker 1: profits you make and put it back into the institution.

1269
01:14:16,920 --> 01:14:22,280
Speaker 1: In this case, it's in university athletics, the Longhorns, USC Miami.

1270
01:14:22,360 --> 01:14:24,680
Speaker 1: There's quite a few that have done this. But what

1271
01:14:24,800 --> 01:14:27,800
Speaker 1: it tells me is if we have a system and

1272
01:14:27,920 --> 01:14:30,720
Speaker 1: our healthcare system, and if they just take hospitals where

1273
01:14:30,760 --> 01:14:33,759
Speaker 1: there's more money to be made, being a nonprofit hospital system,

1274
01:14:34,360 --> 01:14:37,519
Speaker 1: than it is to be a for profit hospital system.

1275
01:14:38,560 --> 01:14:42,160
Speaker 1: What are we doing here? Like something seems off. This

1276
01:14:42,920 --> 01:14:46,200
Speaker 1: is a jerry rigged economy. This isn't a real free

1277
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:48,720
Speaker 1: market exactly right.

1278
01:14:49,479 --> 01:14:51,240
Speaker 2: I mean the way I always say it. I mean,

1279
01:14:51,320 --> 01:14:55,240
Speaker 2: your analogy is really interesting. It's fairly complex. Here's a

1280
01:14:55,320 --> 01:14:59,240
Speaker 2: simple way to say, I think a similar thing. If

1281
01:14:59,280 --> 01:15:02,320
Speaker 2: I show up to the supermarket hungry, they don't have

1282
01:15:02,439 --> 01:15:04,639
Speaker 2: to feed me. If I show up to the hospital sick,

1283
01:15:04,720 --> 01:15:07,920
Speaker 2: they have to treat me. That takes it out of

1284
01:15:07,960 --> 01:15:12,120
Speaker 2: the market right away. And every single other advanced economy

1285
01:15:12,160 --> 01:15:15,439
Speaker 2: has figured it out that this that trying to make

1286
01:15:15,560 --> 01:15:21,160
Speaker 2: this a for profit or a kind of weirdly structured

1287
01:15:21,400 --> 01:15:27,240
Speaker 2: nonprofit sector of the type you just described, is going

1288
01:15:27,400 --> 01:15:32,000
Speaker 2: to mean an economy that spends you know, eighteen percent

1289
01:15:32,120 --> 01:15:36,400
Speaker 2: of its GDP on healthcare. That's US versus ten or

1290
01:15:36,400 --> 01:15:39,519
Speaker 2: eleven percent, which is the average for every other advanced economy.

1291
01:15:39,840 --> 01:15:42,320
Speaker 2: And you might say, well, surely they have worst outcomes

1292
01:15:42,360 --> 01:15:44,880
Speaker 2: than we do, given that they're spending eight percent nine

1293
01:15:44,920 --> 01:15:48,160
Speaker 2: percent of GDP less they do not. They have as good,

1294
01:15:48,320 --> 01:15:50,800
Speaker 2: if not better outcomes than we do. What they don't

1295
01:15:50,880 --> 01:15:54,200
Speaker 2: have is you know, five miles from where I live,

1296
01:15:54,760 --> 01:15:59,919
Speaker 2: massive houses on the Potomac that are owned by you know, lobbyists,

1297
01:16:00,120 --> 01:16:04,360
Speaker 2: big pharma. So, by dint of making this an inelastically

1298
01:16:04,439 --> 01:16:06,439
Speaker 2: demanded good, if you need health care, you need it.

1299
01:16:06,520 --> 01:16:09,439
Speaker 2: It's not shoppable. You can't get in the hospital, you

1300
01:16:09,520 --> 01:16:11,400
Speaker 2: can't go in the ambulance and say, wait a second,

1301
01:16:11,520 --> 01:16:13,800
Speaker 2: I'm going to call a cheaper ambulance. You know, it's

1302
01:16:13,840 --> 01:16:19,759
Speaker 2: not shoppable. It's inelastically demanded, and the prices are completely

1303
01:16:19,840 --> 01:16:22,960
Speaker 2: non transparent. You never really know what you're paying for anything.

1304
01:16:23,880 --> 01:16:26,960
Speaker 2: And you know, expect people not to have their hands

1305
01:16:26,960 --> 01:16:28,880
Speaker 2: in the healthcare cookie jar, which of course they do.

1306
01:16:29,520 --> 01:16:32,439
Speaker 2: So there is a ton of work to be done there.

1307
01:16:32,800 --> 01:16:35,120
Speaker 2: You know, I myself, along with Neil Mahoney, just wrote

1308
01:16:35,120 --> 01:16:38,439
Speaker 2: a piece on how to make health you know, ideas

1309
01:16:38,439 --> 01:16:41,120
Speaker 2: that would make healthcare a lot more affordable. They're out there.

1310
01:16:41,439 --> 01:16:43,120
Speaker 2: We've seen other other countries do them.

1311
01:16:43,160 --> 01:16:45,599
Speaker 1: We should do them too, because, look, I have empathy

1312
01:16:46,000 --> 01:16:48,080
Speaker 1: for those members of Congress are going, why are we

1313
01:16:48,240 --> 01:16:49,879
Speaker 1: subsidizing insurance companies?

1314
01:16:50,080 --> 01:16:50,200
Speaker 2: Right?

1315
01:16:50,600 --> 01:16:52,479
Speaker 1: So I have empathy for that. At the same time,

1316
01:16:53,600 --> 01:16:56,560
Speaker 1: you know, look, we don't want to we don't have

1317
01:16:56,720 --> 01:17:00,760
Speaker 1: time to transition, and these folks need mortable healthcare. So

1318
01:17:00,840 --> 01:17:03,360
Speaker 1: it's it's one of those where you're like, boy, this

1319
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:07,400
Speaker 1: sub what are we doing this? You know, why don't

1320
01:17:07,439 --> 01:17:10,439
Speaker 1: we reform the insurance industry, Why don't we reform hospital

1321
01:17:10,479 --> 01:17:13,479
Speaker 1: payment systems? Why don't we reform you know, before we

1322
01:17:13,640 --> 01:17:18,640
Speaker 1: figure out what the right right structure is to guarantee

1323
01:17:18,680 --> 01:17:22,920
Speaker 1: healthcare access for the public. And it feels as if,

1324
01:17:23,479 --> 01:17:26,120
Speaker 1: you know, because we can't do the one, we're almost

1325
01:17:26,240 --> 01:17:30,360
Speaker 1: stuck just trying to well, let's limit the damage to

1326
01:17:30,479 --> 01:17:35,599
Speaker 1: the average American, but we are only handing more money

1327
01:17:35,960 --> 01:17:37,600
Speaker 1: to a couple of big industries.

1328
01:17:38,000 --> 01:17:40,040
Speaker 2: You're so right. I mean, I'll push back a little

1329
01:17:40,080 --> 01:17:42,320
Speaker 2: bit on some of the things you said, but broadly speaking,

1330
01:17:42,360 --> 01:17:45,000
Speaker 2: you're exactly right. And you know, I actually I think

1331
01:17:45,120 --> 01:17:48,400
Speaker 2: like you when Republicans were saying during the shutdown debate

1332
01:17:48,560 --> 01:17:51,800
Speaker 2: about you know, giving you know, tens of billions of

1333
01:17:51,920 --> 01:17:56,560
Speaker 2: dollars to in these premium tax credits to people so

1334
01:17:56,680 --> 01:17:59,640
Speaker 2: that they could buy so that they're premiums in the

1335
01:18:00,160 --> 01:18:05,240
Speaker 2: affordable character exchanges, don't double Republics. Well, that's just throwing

1336
01:18:05,280 --> 01:18:09,439
Speaker 2: good money after bad and I don't disagree with that. However,

1337
01:18:09,560 --> 01:18:11,840
Speaker 2: if you don't do it. Those premiums are gonna double.

1338
01:18:11,960 --> 01:18:13,960
Speaker 1: No, right like it. It feels like we're being we're

1339
01:18:14,000 --> 01:18:16,439
Speaker 1: all being held hostage here by the insurance companies.

1340
01:18:16,600 --> 01:18:19,240
Speaker 2: Okay, so so here's what I want to push back

1341
01:18:19,280 --> 01:18:19,760
Speaker 2: a little bit.

1342
01:18:20,200 --> 01:18:21,160
Speaker 1: Okay, it's not.

1343
01:18:21,680 --> 01:18:26,360
Speaker 2: You know, the Affordable Care Act did more to control

1344
01:18:26,520 --> 01:18:30,000
Speaker 2: health care spending than your wrap a second ago would

1345
01:18:30,040 --> 01:18:32,680
Speaker 2: have you think. Now, if it solved the problem, we

1346
01:18:32,680 --> 01:18:35,559
Speaker 2: wouldn't be having this conversation. Far from solved the problem,

1347
01:18:36,000 --> 01:18:39,920
Speaker 2: but it did institute a number of things that led,

1348
01:18:40,439 --> 01:18:45,320
Speaker 2: especially Medicare, costs to grow considerably more slowly, which actually

1349
01:18:45,360 --> 01:18:48,639
Speaker 2: has helped us in the fiscal front. Some of those things,

1350
01:18:48,760 --> 01:18:52,400
Speaker 2: and almost all of those had to do with controlling costs.

1351
01:18:53,680 --> 01:18:56,439
Speaker 2: The problem is that there are, relative to all these

1352
01:18:56,520 --> 01:18:59,320
Speaker 2: other economies that spend half of what we do on

1353
01:18:59,400 --> 01:19:02,160
Speaker 2: healthcare as share of the economy, we have very few

1354
01:19:02,280 --> 01:19:05,320
Speaker 2: cost controls. The ones that we do have actually work,

1355
01:19:05,479 --> 01:19:09,879
Speaker 2: giving Medicare the ability to negotiate for lower drug prices.

1356
01:19:09,960 --> 01:19:13,320
Speaker 2: That's worked, But there's fifteen drugs on that formulary, and

1357
01:19:13,400 --> 01:19:18,400
Speaker 2: you need to have hundreds restricting what the insurance. Restricting

1358
01:19:18,479 --> 01:19:22,040
Speaker 2: the profitability of insurance companies if they're not using enough

1359
01:19:22,120 --> 01:19:25,080
Speaker 2: of their of their profits to pay out that that

1360
01:19:25,360 --> 01:19:27,680
Speaker 2: was a cap that was put in in Obamacare. You know,

1361
01:19:27,800 --> 01:19:31,080
Speaker 2: that's been helpful as well. So that's the way forward,

1362
01:19:31,560 --> 01:19:34,160
Speaker 2: and it means a huge political fight, but that's the

1363
01:19:34,240 --> 01:19:35,000
Speaker 2: fight we have to have.

1364
01:19:43,800 --> 01:19:46,880
Speaker 1: So I get Look, I get the fight part and

1365
01:19:46,960 --> 01:19:49,639
Speaker 1: all this, but you know, let's let's say you get

1366
01:19:49,640 --> 01:19:55,760
Speaker 1: a fresh administration and a fresh Congress. What's the simplest

1367
01:19:55,920 --> 01:19:58,640
Speaker 1: thing we could do first as a as a as

1368
01:19:58,680 --> 01:20:02,560
Speaker 1: a federal government to you know, chip away at this.

1369
01:20:03,000 --> 01:20:06,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, So the simplest thing is Medicare for more. If

1370
01:20:06,760 --> 01:20:08,639
Speaker 2: you were talking to Bernie Sanders, it would be Medicare

1371
01:20:08,720 --> 01:20:11,040
Speaker 2: for all, you know, but you're talking to me, and

1372
01:20:11,120 --> 01:20:13,640
Speaker 2: so it's Medicare for more. And what that means is

1373
01:20:14,040 --> 01:20:16,000
Speaker 2: is lowering the age of medicare.

1374
01:20:18,040 --> 01:20:20,759
Speaker 1: I've heard it fifty. Would you go down to fifty?

1375
01:20:20,840 --> 01:20:22,200
Speaker 1: Has been the number I've always seen.

1376
01:20:22,479 --> 01:20:25,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, And so you know, because it's you might hear

1377
01:20:25,960 --> 01:20:28,880
Speaker 2: people talk about a public option that's really very similar

1378
01:20:28,960 --> 01:20:31,360
Speaker 2: to what I'm talking about. And this is the idea

1379
01:20:31,439 --> 01:20:33,840
Speaker 2: that whether you're in your workplace looking at what you

1380
01:20:33,920 --> 01:20:37,519
Speaker 2: can choose, or you're going into the Obamacare exchanges, you

1381
01:20:37,720 --> 01:20:40,680
Speaker 2: can you know, if you're of a certain age, you

1382
01:20:40,720 --> 01:20:44,519
Speaker 2: can choose Medicare, which is you know, a less expensive

1383
01:20:44,600 --> 01:20:46,719
Speaker 2: form of care because of the kinds of cost controls

1384
01:20:46,800 --> 01:20:49,160
Speaker 2: I mentioned earlier. And you know, as someone who's on

1385
01:20:49,280 --> 01:20:50,760
Speaker 2: it now, it works well.

1386
01:20:51,320 --> 01:20:54,679
Speaker 1: Right, let me ask this why you know it's interesting.

1387
01:20:55,840 --> 01:20:59,479
Speaker 1: Did did you expect when the Affordable Care Act happened

1388
01:20:59,520 --> 01:21:01,639
Speaker 1: and the idea was there was there was a hope

1389
01:21:01,680 --> 01:21:04,200
Speaker 1: that you'd have more insurance companies come into the marketplace.

1390
01:21:06,520 --> 01:21:09,000
Speaker 1: Did you think we would have the big you know,

1391
01:21:09,080 --> 01:21:11,800
Speaker 1: the progressives US A, A, Geico. I don't think they

1392
01:21:11,840 --> 01:21:16,519
Speaker 1: really did get into the marketplace. Did you assume more

1393
01:21:16,560 --> 01:21:17,600
Speaker 1: would have jumped into this?

1394
01:21:19,520 --> 01:21:24,360
Speaker 2: I did, and I do think that competition has been

1395
01:21:24,520 --> 01:21:27,759
Speaker 2: somewhat insufficient, uh in that space.

1396
01:21:29,439 --> 01:21:32,160
Speaker 1: You know, every day is a United Healthcare buying up

1397
01:21:32,200 --> 01:21:33,000
Speaker 1: another company.

1398
01:21:33,479 --> 01:21:38,120
Speaker 2: Exactly, there's vertical, there's vertical integration, there's horizontal vertical meaning

1399
01:21:39,680 --> 01:21:42,799
Speaker 2: up and you know, up and down through the hospital systems,

1400
01:21:42,880 --> 01:21:47,479
Speaker 2: and then there's far so so there's there's that kind

1401
01:21:47,479 --> 01:21:50,080
Speaker 2: of integration, particularly in some of our larger cities, is

1402
01:21:50,080 --> 01:21:52,439
Speaker 2: putting upward pressure on costs and in the piece that

1403
01:21:52,560 --> 01:21:54,640
Speaker 2: Neil Mahoney and I just wrote. We went after that,

1404
01:21:55,000 --> 01:21:56,920
Speaker 2: we said we have to we have to block that.

1405
01:21:57,120 --> 01:22:00,439
Speaker 2: You know, you have a lot of investors supporting that

1406
01:22:00,560 --> 01:22:04,040
Speaker 2: kind of integration. But on the insurance point, remember when

1407
01:22:04,120 --> 01:22:06,720
Speaker 2: we did the ACA, we made a political because I

1408
01:22:06,800 --> 01:22:09,160
Speaker 2: was in the Obama administration, that we made a political

1409
01:22:09,280 --> 01:22:13,240
Speaker 2: calculation that we were going to go you know, through

1410
01:22:13,320 --> 01:22:16,040
Speaker 2: the insurance companies, not around them. We were going to

1411
01:22:16,200 --> 01:22:17,439
Speaker 2: adapt them as allies.

1412
01:22:17,479 --> 01:22:17,519
Speaker 3: No.

1413
01:22:17,680 --> 01:22:20,479
Speaker 1: I mean, that was the mistake that Clinton the Clinton's made, right,

1414
01:22:20,520 --> 01:22:22,960
Speaker 1: which was trying to go after the insurance companies and

1415
01:22:23,160 --> 01:22:25,559
Speaker 1: Thelman Leewe wasn't thelm and Louis, Harry and Louise, sorry

1416
01:22:25,800 --> 01:22:28,679
Speaker 1: them and Louise was the movie. Harry and Louise became

1417
01:22:28,760 --> 01:22:32,439
Speaker 1: the faces of the opposition, you know, and that it

1418
01:22:32,600 --> 01:22:34,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I understood the you're right, you guys made

1419
01:22:34,760 --> 01:22:37,360
Speaker 1: a political toa, hey, we're going to have Harry and

1420
01:22:37,400 --> 01:22:39,720
Speaker 1: Louise on our side, which they if I remember they

1421
01:22:39,720 --> 01:22:42,719
Speaker 1: actually re upped the ad and work correct.

1422
01:22:42,760 --> 01:22:45,880
Speaker 2: Well they we never would have legislated that if we had,

1423
01:22:46,520 --> 01:22:49,760
Speaker 2: I think if we had gone with the you know,

1424
01:22:49,880 --> 01:22:52,639
Speaker 2: trying to crowd them out and you know, I think

1425
01:22:52,680 --> 01:22:56,000
Speaker 2: that's why Medicare for More is going to be a

1426
01:22:56,080 --> 01:22:58,760
Speaker 2: tough sell, because they recognized that that kind of competition.

1427
01:22:58,960 --> 01:23:00,960
Speaker 2: They don't want to compete with the government. They recognize

1428
01:23:01,280 --> 01:23:05,120
Speaker 2: that Medicare can provide less expensive health care for people,

1429
01:23:05,280 --> 01:23:08,160
Speaker 2: and you know, they kind of are resigned to assigning

1430
01:23:08,240 --> 01:23:10,439
Speaker 2: that to seniors. But if you take that down to fifty,

1431
01:23:10,640 --> 01:23:12,800
Speaker 2: they're going to fight you tooth and nail for those

1432
01:23:12,960 --> 01:23:15,960
Speaker 2: mansion reasons I said before. But we still have to

1433
01:23:16,040 --> 01:23:16,360
Speaker 2: go there.

1434
01:23:17,680 --> 01:23:22,800
Speaker 1: Well, it seems especially if we're living longer. I mean,

1435
01:23:22,880 --> 01:23:26,400
Speaker 1: it just I guess that's got to be the fear.

1436
01:23:26,560 --> 01:23:28,400
Speaker 1: I mean, that would be the argument against bringing the

1437
01:23:28,439 --> 01:23:32,559
Speaker 1: age down. Medicare is only going to get more stressed

1438
01:23:33,680 --> 01:23:36,600
Speaker 1: because people are going to be living longer and on

1439
01:23:36,840 --> 01:23:37,679
Speaker 1: Medicare longer.

1440
01:23:37,880 --> 01:23:41,479
Speaker 2: Well, not necessarily because we're not getting into the policy weeds.

1441
01:23:41,560 --> 01:23:44,040
Speaker 2: So it's not that this is going to be free

1442
01:23:44,080 --> 01:23:46,559
Speaker 2: for people. I mean, Medicare is not free for anybody.

1443
01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:49,320
Speaker 2: Now you're still you know, part B premiums and all that. No,

1444
01:23:49,479 --> 01:23:53,720
Speaker 2: they would have to pay an actually fair premium rate

1445
01:23:54,320 --> 01:23:57,559
Speaker 2: if you're on Medicare. It's not free. It's not like Medicaid,

1446
01:23:57,600 --> 01:24:00,600
Speaker 2: which is, you know, kind of free healthcare, but that

1447
01:24:00,760 --> 01:24:03,519
Speaker 2: premium is going to be considerably lower than what you're

1448
01:24:03,520 --> 01:24:04,599
Speaker 2: paying to the private sector.

1449
01:24:05,120 --> 01:24:13,720
Speaker 1: Yeah. Future of work, not just AI, but the length

1450
01:24:13,800 --> 01:24:19,439
Speaker 1: of the work week. Ye, there's been chatter about this

1451
01:24:19,600 --> 01:24:23,160
Speaker 1: for multiple generations, right, and what the work week is

1452
01:24:23,200 --> 01:24:25,599
Speaker 1: going to be. You're starting to see I think Bernie

1453
01:24:25,600 --> 01:24:29,200
Speaker 1: Sanders is advocating a thirty two hour work week, but

1454
01:24:29,320 --> 01:24:32,439
Speaker 1: it really all goes back to what's full time. And

1455
01:24:32,720 --> 01:24:36,040
Speaker 1: because what full time, what the definition of full time is,

1456
01:24:36,160 --> 01:24:39,040
Speaker 1: then of course triggers whether you get benefits or not.

1457
01:24:39,200 --> 01:24:41,679
Speaker 1: And so that's why this is I think an important issue.

1458
01:24:44,240 --> 01:24:47,400
Speaker 1: Where are you on that issue and is that something

1459
01:24:47,520 --> 01:24:50,120
Speaker 1: that you think is coming.

1460
01:24:51,439 --> 01:24:55,759
Speaker 2: Well, First of all, the way Senator Sanders talks about

1461
01:24:55,840 --> 01:24:59,519
Speaker 2: it is he wants people to work eight hours less

1462
01:24:59,600 --> 01:25:02,360
Speaker 2: per week but not take a cut and pay. And

1463
01:25:03,080 --> 01:25:06,639
Speaker 2: that strikes me as you know, unrealistic. I don't see

1464
01:25:06,680 --> 01:25:11,320
Speaker 2: how that works. I think that leads to lots of

1465
01:25:11,400 --> 01:25:16,200
Speaker 2: unintended consequences that would be detrimental to to workers. If

1466
01:25:16,320 --> 01:25:19,840
Speaker 2: you wanted to have a for the option of a

1467
01:25:19,960 --> 01:25:23,479
Speaker 2: four hour week, a four day week, and you know,

1468
01:25:23,520 --> 01:25:26,360
Speaker 2: people could still be considered working full time and get

1469
01:25:26,400 --> 01:25:28,679
Speaker 2: those same sorts of benefits. You know, that's the conversation

1470
01:25:28,800 --> 01:25:31,880
Speaker 2: worth having. But you know output would go down and

1471
01:25:31,960 --> 01:25:34,439
Speaker 2: so we you know, we'd have less we'd have less

1472
01:25:34,479 --> 01:25:38,519
Speaker 2: growth presumably, and that's kind of a trade off. It's

1473
01:25:38,560 --> 01:25:42,280
Speaker 2: interesting because for economists a lot of time, social welfare

1474
01:25:42,439 --> 01:25:46,519
Speaker 2: well being is too easily analogized to GDP. But if

1475
01:25:46,560 --> 01:25:48,400
Speaker 2: I told you we can have less GDP but we

1476
01:25:48,439 --> 01:25:52,840
Speaker 2: can work less hard, you might say Europe, And.

1477
01:25:52,960 --> 01:25:54,720
Speaker 1: You know that is what somebody would say, Europe. Look

1478
01:25:54,760 --> 01:25:57,680
Speaker 1: at them and you might say, that's right. And we

1479
01:25:58,080 --> 01:26:00,799
Speaker 1: we we we drove right past them in our GDP

1480
01:26:01,080 --> 01:26:02,360
Speaker 1: over the way we drove right past.

1481
01:26:02,200 --> 01:26:04,000
Speaker 2: From the GDP. But when it comes to if you

1482
01:26:04,040 --> 01:26:06,519
Speaker 2: actually look at measures of happiness, you know they actually

1483
01:26:06,600 --> 01:26:09,439
Speaker 2: kick our butts in a lot of ways, especially around

1484
01:26:09,680 --> 01:26:12,360
Speaker 2: this issue of work. So the problem I have with

1485
01:26:12,479 --> 01:26:15,240
Speaker 2: the conversation is when it sounds like there's no trade off.

1486
01:26:15,680 --> 01:26:17,680
Speaker 2: If you accept that there's a growth trade off, but

1487
01:26:17,840 --> 01:26:21,560
Speaker 2: maybe you improve social welfare, fine, I'd be willing to,

1488
01:26:21,840 --> 01:26:24,439
Speaker 2: you know, entertain that idea. It's not something I think

1489
01:26:24,479 --> 01:26:26,400
Speaker 2: about a lot though these days, And it's not even

1490
01:26:26,439 --> 01:26:31,000
Speaker 2: really on my list of policy ideas. Why Because affordability

1491
01:26:31,520 --> 01:26:34,040
Speaker 2: is such a huge issue right now, and I think

1492
01:26:34,080 --> 01:26:36,960
Speaker 2: it's been for a while, it's going to be going forward,

1493
01:26:37,360 --> 01:26:39,720
Speaker 2: and if you're working one day less, you're going to

1494
01:26:39,760 --> 01:26:41,560
Speaker 2: make less and life is going to be you know,

1495
01:26:41,680 --> 01:26:44,439
Speaker 2: presumably even less affordable. So I think that that's a

1496
01:26:44,520 --> 01:26:45,519
Speaker 2: real challenge right now.

1497
01:26:46,160 --> 01:26:48,439
Speaker 1: No, in fact, I think the more like I think

1498
01:26:48,479 --> 01:26:52,120
Speaker 1: the near term future of work, certainly for my kids

1499
01:26:53,160 --> 01:26:56,240
Speaker 1: is I assume and frankly that I look at the

1500
01:26:57,000 --> 01:26:59,840
Speaker 1: situation I've put together for myself, it's probably similar to

1501
01:27:00,000 --> 01:27:02,680
Speaker 1: what you've put together. Is you don't have one job,

1502
01:27:02,760 --> 01:27:06,080
Speaker 1: you have four or five jobs, and that that is

1503
01:27:06,160 --> 01:27:07,960
Speaker 1: going there is going to be a larger and larger

1504
01:27:08,000 --> 01:27:11,000
Speaker 1: segment of the population that is going to have multiple

1505
01:27:11,080 --> 01:27:15,639
Speaker 1: income streams. How does what does federal how does federal

1506
01:27:15,720 --> 01:27:20,800
Speaker 1: policy have to change to support uh an economy that's

1507
01:27:20,880 --> 01:27:26,680
Speaker 1: going to have more essentially more people in the I

1508
01:27:26,720 --> 01:27:29,280
Speaker 1: don't like to use gig work because I think people

1509
01:27:29,320 --> 01:27:31,439
Speaker 1: immediately assume, oh, uber driver. I don't think that's going

1510
01:27:31,479 --> 01:27:33,479
Speaker 1: to you know, you know, it could be just all

1511
01:27:33,560 --> 01:27:35,479
Speaker 1: sorts of things could be part of the service economy

1512
01:27:35,520 --> 01:27:36,760
Speaker 1: of professional economy, et cetera.

1513
01:27:36,920 --> 01:27:40,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think in two major ways. One we've actually

1514
01:27:40,880 --> 01:27:44,880
Speaker 2: talked about, which is healthcare. Of course, most working age

1515
01:27:44,920 --> 01:27:47,080
Speaker 2: people get their healthcare not just for them, but for

1516
01:27:47,160 --> 01:27:50,840
Speaker 2: their family through their employer. So if we move to

1517
01:27:50,960 --> 01:27:54,479
Speaker 2: a situation where you're not as connected to one employer

1518
01:27:55,439 --> 01:27:58,680
Speaker 2: such that you have employer sponsored insurance, we're going to

1519
01:27:58,800 --> 01:28:02,920
Speaker 2: need a system like Medicare for more. The Obamacare exchanges,

1520
01:28:02,960 --> 01:28:05,400
Speaker 2: by the way, were invented to help solve that problem,

1521
01:28:05,960 --> 01:28:07,640
Speaker 2: but they're you know, they're kind of clue gy, and

1522
01:28:07,640 --> 01:28:09,880
Speaker 2: they're kind of expensive, and you and I already talked

1523
01:28:09,880 --> 01:28:12,439
Speaker 2: about that. So we have to make sure that you know,

1524
01:28:12,960 --> 01:28:16,599
Speaker 2: we have a very uniquely weird and kind of dumb

1525
01:28:16,760 --> 01:28:20,960
Speaker 2: system in this country where we we have most working

1526
01:28:21,040 --> 01:28:23,840
Speaker 2: age people getting their healthcare through work. You know, that's

1527
01:28:23,880 --> 01:28:26,599
Speaker 2: a huge burden on companies that would rather make cars

1528
01:28:26,680 --> 01:28:32,240
Speaker 2: and not provide health insurance. So breaking that asunder, you know,

1529
01:28:32,320 --> 01:28:34,519
Speaker 2: it has historical roots that we can get into After

1530
01:28:34,600 --> 01:28:37,000
Speaker 2: World War Two when there were wage freezes in place.

1531
01:28:37,240 --> 01:28:38,639
Speaker 2: You have to figure out a way to give people

1532
01:28:38,680 --> 01:28:41,240
Speaker 2: more benefits, but that would be a great place to start.

1533
01:28:41,280 --> 01:28:45,640
Speaker 2: And secondly, labor standards the umbrella of labor standards, you know,

1534
01:28:45,760 --> 01:28:50,040
Speaker 2: wage protections, unemployment insurance, over time pay. That's all connected

1535
01:28:50,160 --> 01:28:54,400
Speaker 2: to traditional work at traditional schedules. So you'd want that

1536
01:28:54,640 --> 01:28:58,200
Speaker 2: umbrella to be reshaped to protect people who didn't necessarily

1537
01:28:58,280 --> 01:28:59,680
Speaker 2: have traditional work arrangements.

1538
01:29:00,600 --> 01:29:02,280
Speaker 1: Well, you're right. I remember that was one of the

1539
01:29:02,400 --> 01:29:06,440
Speaker 1: art pro one of the arguments that the Obama administration

1540
01:29:06,600 --> 01:29:10,120
Speaker 1: was using to sell the Affordable Care Act, that hey, portability,

1541
01:29:10,640 --> 01:29:13,000
Speaker 1: you don't have to you know, you can, you can

1542
01:29:13,360 --> 01:29:15,880
Speaker 1: work part time at a company without worrying that. You know,

1543
01:29:16,040 --> 01:29:17,720
Speaker 1: you don't feel like you can leave. You know that

1544
01:29:17,840 --> 01:29:19,920
Speaker 1: sort of thing. You're not stuck in a job, right

1545
01:29:20,040 --> 01:29:25,080
Speaker 1: job because of healthcare. At the same time, I do

1546
01:29:25,280 --> 01:29:29,439
Speaker 1: worry about companies offering a lot of contract work, which

1547
01:29:29,520 --> 01:29:31,320
Speaker 1: is code for I ain't giving you any benefits.

1548
01:29:31,760 --> 01:29:36,040
Speaker 2: Absolutely, And you know that's another reason why healthcare form

1549
01:29:36,360 --> 01:29:40,120
Speaker 2: is so vital. And again, those a lot of those

1550
01:29:40,160 --> 01:29:42,800
Speaker 2: folks are getting healthcare in the exchanges right now, and

1551
01:29:42,920 --> 01:29:45,360
Speaker 2: you know, it's better than it's better than not being covered,

1552
01:29:45,400 --> 01:29:46,200
Speaker 2: but they don't love it.

1553
01:29:47,120 --> 01:29:50,519
Speaker 1: Let me ask you about two Trump policies and what

1554
01:29:50,760 --> 01:29:53,240
Speaker 1: you make of them. In the If you were part

1555
01:29:53,280 --> 01:29:57,680
Speaker 1: of the next administration, would you try to scrap it

1556
01:29:58,080 --> 01:30:02,680
Speaker 1: or enhance it? One is no tax on tips. I

1557
01:30:02,800 --> 01:30:05,599
Speaker 1: was amused the other day by an article that IRS

1558
01:30:05,680 --> 01:30:09,639
Speaker 1: agents have to figure out, is this pornography? I saw?

1559
01:30:09,800 --> 01:30:12,760
Speaker 1: Not pornography. I mean I just sort of like, oh wow, well,

1560
01:30:13,479 --> 01:30:15,040
Speaker 1: you know, all of a sudden, a whole bunch of

1561
01:30:15,760 --> 01:30:17,760
Speaker 1: sixteen year old boys might volunteer to work at the

1562
01:30:17,800 --> 01:30:20,160
Speaker 1: I R S or intern Sorry, yeah, no, I.

1563
01:30:20,200 --> 01:30:24,080
Speaker 2: Think that's really about Do you want to say the

1564
01:30:24,120 --> 01:30:25,360
Speaker 2: second one again? Well?

1565
01:30:25,840 --> 01:30:29,040
Speaker 1: The second The second one is that is the these

1566
01:30:29,120 --> 01:30:32,880
Speaker 1: new essentially baby bonds that you know, they're calling them

1567
01:30:32,920 --> 01:30:36,040
Speaker 1: Trump accounts. The but the Michael Dell, you know that,

1568
01:30:36,240 --> 01:30:38,840
Speaker 1: who just actually added to to sort of expand the pool.

1569
01:30:38,960 --> 01:30:40,280
Speaker 1: I want to get into that a minute, but let's

1570
01:30:40,280 --> 01:30:42,360
Speaker 1: start with no tax on tips, because you know, my

1571
01:30:42,880 --> 01:30:45,040
Speaker 1: joke has been I'd like to be paid all in tips, now,

1572
01:30:45,080 --> 01:30:46,360
Speaker 1: please exactly.

1573
01:30:46,520 --> 01:30:49,679
Speaker 2: So, the first thing we worried about, Literally thirty seconds

1574
01:30:49,720 --> 01:30:52,360
Speaker 2: after somebody told me about that, I said, you're gonna

1575
01:30:52,360 --> 01:30:55,880
Speaker 2: have a lot of you know, stockbrokers who are saying,

1576
01:30:55,920 --> 01:30:58,920
Speaker 2: you know, I tron a dollar a year and the

1577
01:30:59,000 --> 01:31:03,840
Speaker 2: rest is tips. Now, they did try to structure the

1578
01:31:04,000 --> 01:31:08,360
Speaker 2: policy to block that, and that just adds a level

1579
01:31:08,400 --> 01:31:13,000
Speaker 2: of complexity that is really the antithesis of smart tax policy.

1580
01:31:13,320 --> 01:31:17,000
Speaker 2: The minute you have eighty occupations that are okay and

1581
01:31:17,120 --> 01:31:19,600
Speaker 2: a bunch that aren't, you can imagine what's going to

1582
01:31:19,640 --> 01:31:20,639
Speaker 2: go on in tax court.

1583
01:31:21,240 --> 01:31:24,439
Speaker 1: And what's a good thing you're getting rid of IRS

1584
01:31:24,520 --> 01:31:25,600
Speaker 1: agents because you know.

1585
01:31:25,720 --> 01:31:30,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, So the first problem is is that it's

1586
01:31:30,439 --> 01:31:34,600
Speaker 2: easy to game, and I suspect that their guardrails are insufficient.

1587
01:31:34,960 --> 01:31:37,720
Speaker 2: The second problem is that there are a lot of

1588
01:31:37,880 --> 01:31:42,960
Speaker 2: low wage workers who get tips and don't pay any

1589
01:31:43,160 --> 01:31:46,080
Speaker 2: federal income tax, so this doesn't help them at all.

1590
01:31:47,240 --> 01:31:50,200
Speaker 2: You know, most lowage workers simply don't have a federal

1591
01:31:50,320 --> 01:31:54,880
Speaker 2: tax liability, so it means nothing to them. And then

1592
01:31:55,320 --> 01:31:59,840
Speaker 2: you know, the third problem is, you know, we actually

1593
01:32:00,080 --> 01:32:03,640
Speaker 2: have a very significant revenue problem in this country, and

1594
01:32:03,840 --> 01:32:09,719
Speaker 2: so tax cuts are one reason why we are looking

1595
01:32:09,800 --> 01:32:13,440
Speaker 2: at a really unsustainable fiscal path. So I think it's complex,

1596
01:32:13,520 --> 01:32:16,280
Speaker 2: I think it's poorly targeted, and I think it's a waste.

1597
01:32:17,080 --> 01:32:20,200
Speaker 1: But it was like I was just going to say,

1598
01:32:20,240 --> 01:32:23,439
Speaker 1: the problem you have is it sort of strikes me

1599
01:32:23,520 --> 01:32:25,120
Speaker 1: as what she said, like, look, well we had to

1600
01:32:25,200 --> 01:32:27,680
Speaker 1: work through the insurance companies, even though we didn't want to.

1601
01:32:29,120 --> 01:32:32,320
Speaker 1: This feels like a policy that that nobody's going to

1602
01:32:32,360 --> 01:32:35,479
Speaker 1: be wanting to be the member of Congress that says no, no, no,

1603
01:32:35,560 --> 01:32:38,400
Speaker 1: no no, let's bring taxing. Let's put dips back into

1604
01:32:38,439 --> 01:32:39,599
Speaker 1: income taxable income.

1605
01:32:39,760 --> 01:32:42,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're probably right, and so you know the minute

1606
01:32:42,640 --> 01:32:46,639
Speaker 2: you open it's so much easier to grant a tax

1607
01:32:46,680 --> 01:32:49,040
Speaker 2: cut than to take it back. Obviously. I mean, I

1608
01:32:49,160 --> 01:32:52,559
Speaker 2: think if we start seeing a lot of fraud, which

1609
01:32:52,600 --> 01:32:55,640
Speaker 2: I predict we will, at least we might be in

1610
01:32:55,680 --> 01:32:57,520
Speaker 2: a market where we can put up more guardrails.

1611
01:32:59,000 --> 01:33:03,000
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the the Trump baby bonds or you know,

1612
01:33:03,080 --> 01:33:07,160
Speaker 1: the the the birth and I guess this is their

1613
01:33:07,240 --> 01:33:13,920
Speaker 1: way of encouraging trying to encourage uh more families, let's

1614
01:33:13,960 --> 01:33:16,680
Speaker 1: be you know which. And you guys were fighting for

1615
01:33:16,720 --> 01:33:19,960
Speaker 1: the child the childcare tax credit. Yeah, I sort of

1616
01:33:20,000 --> 01:33:24,000
Speaker 1: believe that. Frankly, I think you guys should have died

1617
01:33:24,040 --> 01:33:26,200
Speaker 1: on that hill. And I don't know why you didn't politically,

1618
01:33:26,280 --> 01:33:28,960
Speaker 1: but in terms of what do you mean like fight,

1619
01:33:29,479 --> 01:33:31,080
Speaker 1: never have given it up on it. I mean, I

1620
01:33:31,160 --> 01:33:33,759
Speaker 1: think that was that was something worth losing an election,

1621
01:33:33,960 --> 01:33:36,720
Speaker 1: you know, taking it to the ballot box. I just

1622
01:33:36,920 --> 01:33:40,800
Speaker 1: you know, never never giving up on it. I understand why.

1623
01:33:41,520 --> 01:33:43,040
Speaker 1: You know, you thought, well, we have a bigger deal

1624
01:33:43,080 --> 01:33:45,400
Speaker 1: to make here, and it's possible to do this, and

1625
01:33:45,840 --> 01:33:49,320
Speaker 1: you certainly look that's the old legislator in Joe Biden.

1626
01:33:49,400 --> 01:33:52,960
Speaker 1: I get it. But the childcare tax credit, that was

1627
01:33:53,320 --> 01:33:57,719
Speaker 1: that was it mattered to people, it has bipartisan interest,

1628
01:33:58,280 --> 01:34:01,280
Speaker 1: like it just felt like it felt like a political

1629
01:34:01,320 --> 01:34:04,040
Speaker 1: It felt like a policy hill worth dying on because

1630
01:34:04,760 --> 01:34:07,600
Speaker 1: there's going to be something for this, right it. You know,

1631
01:34:07,720 --> 01:34:10,000
Speaker 1: right now it's baby bonds. I don't think this quite

1632
01:34:10,080 --> 01:34:13,840
Speaker 1: cuts it, although I can imagine now people will say, hey,

1633
01:34:13,880 --> 01:34:16,800
Speaker 1: you can use that money for childcare. Well you can't

1634
01:34:16,880 --> 01:34:18,960
Speaker 1: use it so you can't use it for a team yet,

1635
01:34:19,040 --> 01:34:20,000
Speaker 1: but you know it's coming.

1636
01:34:20,640 --> 01:34:23,559
Speaker 2: You can't. Yeah, maybe, But so on your childcare tax

1637
01:34:23,640 --> 01:34:25,640
Speaker 2: credit point, you know, we didn't have the votes on

1638
01:34:25,720 --> 01:34:28,080
Speaker 2: the Democratic caucus. You know, Mansion with against it. So

1639
01:34:29,240 --> 01:34:31,280
Speaker 2: and I think Cinema is too, So you know, we

1640
01:34:31,360 --> 01:34:33,040
Speaker 2: didn't have the votes. But I take you know, I

1641
01:34:33,120 --> 01:34:35,479
Speaker 2: take your point. It was real. I think that many

1642
01:34:35,560 --> 01:34:41,040
Speaker 2: of us were a little surprised by how little the

1643
01:34:41,439 --> 01:34:43,840
Speaker 2: public seemed to fight for it. You know, a lot

1644
01:34:43,920 --> 01:34:45,880
Speaker 2: of times when you get what I said a minute ago,

1645
01:34:45,920 --> 01:34:48,439
Speaker 2: when you provide people with a benefit like that, a

1646
01:34:48,520 --> 01:34:49,879
Speaker 2: lot of times taking it away.

1647
01:34:49,760 --> 01:34:53,240
Speaker 1: Is let me let me positive theory on that there. Sure,

1648
01:34:54,360 --> 01:34:57,600
Speaker 1: the childcare tax credit came just when the government was

1649
01:34:57,680 --> 01:35:00,840
Speaker 1: shoveling out other money too. Yeah, so people, and I

1650
01:35:00,880 --> 01:35:03,760
Speaker 1: don't know if they fully appreciated what was it probably.

1651
01:35:03,479 --> 01:35:07,519
Speaker 2: Became viewed as like another pandemic era things. So you're yeh,

1652
01:35:08,200 --> 01:35:12,559
Speaker 2: So look, I think giving one thousand dollars of seed

1653
01:35:12,720 --> 01:35:17,760
Speaker 2: money for what really is like an IRA account is

1654
01:35:18,800 --> 01:35:22,040
Speaker 2: a fine thing to do. I think the problem is

1655
01:35:22,280 --> 01:35:26,080
Speaker 2: that it's not at all targeted and that it will

1656
01:35:26,160 --> 01:35:32,360
Speaker 2: exacerbate intergenerational inequality. You're allowed to contribute, your family members

1657
01:35:32,400 --> 01:35:35,599
Speaker 2: are allowed to contribute five thousand dollars a year, tax

1658
01:35:35,720 --> 01:35:40,200
Speaker 2: free to to these funds. I think it's tax free. Obviously,

1659
01:35:40,280 --> 01:35:42,560
Speaker 2: the seed money you don't pay taxes on until you

1660
01:35:42,600 --> 01:35:45,479
Speaker 2: take it out. You can't touch it for eighteen years,

1661
01:35:46,640 --> 01:35:48,160
Speaker 2: and so who's going to be able to make those

1662
01:35:48,240 --> 01:35:52,080
Speaker 2: contributions Not low income people, high income people. So it's

1663
01:35:52,160 --> 01:35:55,680
Speaker 2: going to exacerbate inequality over the long run. And I

1664
01:35:55,720 --> 01:35:59,320
Speaker 2: think that's problematic. I would have targeted in a different way,

1665
01:36:00,040 --> 01:36:02,720
Speaker 2: so that instead of giving money to savers who are

1666
01:36:02,760 --> 01:36:05,880
Speaker 2: gonna save anyway, which you know, my kids are, your

1667
01:36:06,000 --> 01:36:09,880
Speaker 2: kids probably are, I'm targeted to families that don't have

1668
01:36:09,960 --> 01:36:12,519
Speaker 2: the resources to make that saving and add to it

1669
01:36:12,600 --> 01:36:14,240
Speaker 2: over time so that it can build.

1670
01:36:16,120 --> 01:36:16,240
Speaker 3: Uh.

1671
01:36:16,400 --> 01:36:19,400
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting to me. What the what the what

1672
01:36:19,560 --> 01:36:24,240
Speaker 1: the Dells did? They concentrated the donation by zip code.

1673
01:36:24,920 --> 01:36:27,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that is a much more targeted approach, and

1674
01:36:27,640 --> 01:36:29,600
Speaker 2: you know, I think a better one. I don't know

1675
01:36:29,720 --> 01:36:31,439
Speaker 2: that we can kind of you know, philanthropy to get

1676
01:36:31,520 --> 01:36:32,560
Speaker 2: us where we need to go on this.

1677
01:36:32,760 --> 01:36:35,960
Speaker 1: But well, and I'm curious of that. I find this

1678
01:36:36,160 --> 01:36:40,160
Speaker 1: to be really I'm gonna I can't. I'm really uncomfortable

1679
01:36:40,200 --> 01:36:43,920
Speaker 1: with the idea of government spending becoming a charitable gift.

1680
01:36:45,560 --> 01:36:48,360
Speaker 1: And I don't know how else to put it. I'm

1681
01:36:48,360 --> 01:36:51,559
Speaker 1: not I don't really. I can't sit here and say, well, jeezus,

1682
01:36:52,040 --> 01:36:55,200
Speaker 1: it's bad what the Dells are doing, or it was bad?

1683
01:36:55,360 --> 01:36:59,240
Speaker 1: What Who was it was it? Who who threw a

1684
01:36:59,320 --> 01:37:05,320
Speaker 1: money to pay the pay the military or to help contribute. Yeah,

1685
01:37:05,320 --> 01:37:08,040
Speaker 1: I think it was one of the melons. One of

1686
01:37:08,080 --> 01:37:11,160
Speaker 1: the melons did that, and you're like, well, I appreciate

1687
01:37:11,200 --> 01:37:15,360
Speaker 1: your patriotism, right, Like, I think that's great, But is

1688
01:37:15,439 --> 01:37:18,120
Speaker 1: that a habit the government should get into that day? Well,

1689
01:37:18,200 --> 01:37:21,479
Speaker 1: maybe they need a chair, they need a foundation to

1690
01:37:21,600 --> 01:37:22,200
Speaker 1: raise money for.

1691
01:37:22,840 --> 01:37:25,320
Speaker 2: So I mean, this is why we have a progressive

1692
01:37:25,360 --> 01:37:29,320
Speaker 2: income tax. So you can say, boy, cross my fingers.

1693
01:37:29,360 --> 01:37:32,200
Speaker 2: I hope there's some really generous patriots out there who

1694
01:37:32,240 --> 01:37:34,719
Speaker 2: will provide us help where we need it, like fund

1695
01:37:34,800 --> 01:37:39,440
Speaker 2: the military. Or you can say we're going to progressively

1696
01:37:39,600 --> 01:37:43,479
Speaker 2: tax people. If this economy delivered you billions hundreds of

1697
01:37:43,520 --> 01:37:46,840
Speaker 2: billions trillions, we're gonna, you know, definitely take some of

1698
01:37:46,920 --> 01:37:48,519
Speaker 2: that back and we're going to use it for things

1699
01:37:48,600 --> 01:37:53,360
Speaker 2: that the electric decides are uh, you know, the electric

1700
01:37:53,400 --> 01:37:55,519
Speaker 2: decides to they're elected officials, is what we want to

1701
01:37:55,840 --> 01:37:58,960
Speaker 2: spend money on. And you know that's how democracy works.

1702
01:37:59,360 --> 01:38:02,840
Speaker 2: So I don't like the idea of leaving it to

1703
01:38:03,120 --> 01:38:07,720
Speaker 2: the kindness of strange of stranger trillionaires to make up

1704
01:38:08,160 --> 01:38:10,160
Speaker 2: the difference. I think that's why we have taxes.

1705
01:38:11,000 --> 01:38:12,960
Speaker 1: Is if you're understanding that Dell's are going to get it,

1706
01:38:13,560 --> 01:38:16,480
Speaker 1: is this tax free their charitable donation.

1707
01:38:16,320 --> 01:38:20,240
Speaker 2: Is charitable deduction. Yeah, so this is it's a deduction

1708
01:38:20,400 --> 01:38:22,479
Speaker 2: that you deducted at your your time.

1709
01:38:22,400 --> 01:38:24,280
Speaker 1: Right fact, so how much? I mean, so that means

1710
01:38:24,560 --> 01:38:27,040
Speaker 1: you and I are subsidizing this charitable giving already.

1711
01:38:27,760 --> 01:38:31,400
Speaker 2: Correct, that's a great point, I mean, and you know

1712
01:38:33,240 --> 01:38:36,760
Speaker 2: I don't. Yeah, it's a lot of savings there for them.

1713
01:38:36,920 --> 01:38:38,599
Speaker 2: And look, you know a lot of people have come

1714
01:38:38,680 --> 01:38:42,799
Speaker 2: after the charitable deduction as a way to raise more revenue,

1715
01:38:43,160 --> 01:38:46,560
Speaker 2: and it never really seems to get anywhere. You know,

1716
01:38:47,000 --> 01:38:47,960
Speaker 2: maybe for good reason.

1717
01:38:48,000 --> 01:38:50,479
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a lot of but I thought Obama

1718
01:38:50,640 --> 01:38:54,000
Speaker 1: lowered it. Then he lowered the rate from down to

1719
01:38:55,200 --> 01:38:57,799
Speaker 1: I thought he lowered how much. You definitely remember trying

1720
01:38:57,840 --> 01:39:00,400
Speaker 1: to do so, okay, and it never happened. I didn't

1721
01:39:00,439 --> 01:39:03,120
Speaker 1: think we got there, but I could be misrememory. For

1722
01:39:03,240 --> 01:39:04,960
Speaker 1: some reason. I thought it went down from you know,

1723
01:39:05,200 --> 01:39:07,720
Speaker 1: twenty went to twenty you know, twenty eight set of three.

1724
01:39:07,760 --> 01:39:10,559
Speaker 2: Whenever we used to have revenue meetings, which we had

1725
01:39:10,600 --> 01:39:13,360
Speaker 2: all the time because we're desperately nu more, somebody would

1726
01:39:13,360 --> 01:39:16,599
Speaker 2: say can we move that? And you know, the next

1727
01:39:16,720 --> 01:39:18,920
Speaker 2: meeting higher up would come the answer, no, we can't.

1728
01:39:19,200 --> 01:39:21,439
Speaker 1: No, you can't. That's funny. Let me get you out

1729
01:39:21,439 --> 01:39:25,320
Speaker 1: of here. On the Chobcare tax credit, what would it

1730
01:39:25,360 --> 01:39:27,360
Speaker 1: take to make it permanent? And how would you pay

1731
01:39:27,400 --> 01:39:27,560
Speaker 1: for it?

1732
01:39:28,840 --> 01:39:33,280
Speaker 2: It's not it's not cheap. I think, yeah, I think

1733
01:39:33,360 --> 01:39:37,519
Speaker 2: if you're talking ten years, you're in the I think

1734
01:39:37,640 --> 01:39:41,280
Speaker 2: in the seven eight hundred billion range. I I know

1735
01:39:41,439 --> 01:39:43,720
Speaker 2: these numbers when I'm working on that stuff or not,

1736
01:39:44,000 --> 01:39:45,680
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna We're not gonna hold it you. I

1737
01:39:45,760 --> 01:39:52,439
Speaker 2: think that's the range. And when we obviously when we

1738
01:39:52,600 --> 01:39:56,360
Speaker 2: did it, it was deficit financed. And I don't know

1739
01:39:56,400 --> 01:39:58,080
Speaker 2: if you've seen any of my work on this, but

1740
01:39:58,200 --> 01:40:02,120
Speaker 2: I am a pretty much such a lifetime fiscal dove

1741
01:40:02,520 --> 01:40:05,200
Speaker 2: who's lately become a bit hawkish.

1742
01:40:05,400 --> 01:40:08,040
Speaker 1: Do you feel like you're like, Okay, now you've everybody

1743
01:40:08,160 --> 01:40:11,360
Speaker 1: is that? You know, I've my entire adult life has

1744
01:40:11,720 --> 01:40:13,760
Speaker 1: you know? The sky's been falling when it comes to

1745
01:40:13,840 --> 01:40:16,639
Speaker 1: the debt. The guy's been falling. And it's people I trust,

1746
01:40:17,040 --> 01:40:20,080
Speaker 1: not just ideologues. Right, the guy's been falling. And somehow

1747
01:40:20,760 --> 01:40:23,720
Speaker 1: it turns out the Paul Krugman's of the world, and

1748
01:40:24,200 --> 01:40:27,240
Speaker 1: you know, those the fiscal doves like yourself, Well, no,

1749
01:40:27,600 --> 01:40:29,680
Speaker 1: our debt to GDP ratio can be higher, and we

1750
01:40:29,800 --> 01:40:33,400
Speaker 1: can do this, and we can do that, but you

1751
01:40:33,479 --> 01:40:34,800
Speaker 1: think we might be at the breaking point.

1752
01:40:35,320 --> 01:40:37,120
Speaker 2: I think I don't think we're at the breaking point,

1753
01:40:37,479 --> 01:40:41,160
Speaker 2: but I think we're at a level bun sustainability that

1754
01:40:41,360 --> 01:40:43,840
Speaker 2: is dangerously tempting a breaking point. And it's not even

1755
01:40:43,880 --> 01:40:47,360
Speaker 2: clear what a breaking point is. We have a sovereign

1756
01:40:47,439 --> 01:40:50,040
Speaker 2: currency that we print, so you know, it's not like

1757
01:40:50,120 --> 01:40:52,599
Speaker 2: we're going to have a list trust moment because our

1758
01:40:53,760 --> 01:40:56,759
Speaker 2: our our debt markets are so large and so liquid,

1759
01:40:56,800 --> 01:40:59,640
Speaker 2: and we have the dominant global currency and all that

1760
01:40:59,760 --> 01:41:03,439
Speaker 2: and the but the reason I flipped, and I've written

1761
01:41:03,600 --> 01:41:07,120
Speaker 2: extensively about this, including a New York Times bed that

1762
01:41:07,240 --> 01:41:09,240
Speaker 2: had a graphic in it that kind of explains this,

1763
01:41:10,080 --> 01:41:12,120
Speaker 2: is because interest rates are higher now. And I think

1764
01:41:12,160 --> 01:41:14,559
Speaker 2: the thing that people missed ol over all those years

1765
01:41:14,560 --> 01:41:16,640
Speaker 2: where they had their hair on fire is they just

1766
01:41:16,720 --> 01:41:18,800
Speaker 2: didn't recognize them. It's kind of right in front of you,

1767
01:41:19,120 --> 01:41:21,639
Speaker 2: how the real interest rate was so low, even negative

1768
01:41:21,680 --> 01:41:24,200
Speaker 2: in some cases, that we could HANDI le service our

1769
01:41:24,240 --> 01:41:26,840
Speaker 2: debt without breaking a sweat. But now the interest rate

1770
01:41:26,960 --> 01:41:29,120
Speaker 2: is higher, and my priors or that it's going to

1771
01:41:29,200 --> 01:41:32,839
Speaker 2: stay up. You don't know. That's an impossible variable to forecast.

1772
01:41:33,160 --> 01:41:35,160
Speaker 2: But this is again a hope for the best plan

1773
01:41:35,280 --> 01:41:39,120
Speaker 2: for the worst moment. So I wouldn't support a full

1774
01:41:39,200 --> 01:41:43,080
Speaker 2: out ten year expenditure six seven hundred billion for an

1775
01:41:43,080 --> 01:41:47,000
Speaker 2: extended child tax credit without a pay for. But those

1776
01:41:47,080 --> 01:41:51,439
Speaker 2: pay fors are readily available if you're willing to raise taxes,

1777
01:41:51,560 --> 01:41:54,400
Speaker 2: especially at the higher end. And in fact, in our

1778
01:41:54,560 --> 01:41:58,040
Speaker 2: budgets we did that, so you can actually go back

1779
01:41:58,120 --> 01:42:02,360
Speaker 2: and read how we finance a prominent extension of the

1780
01:42:02,920 --> 01:42:04,880
Speaker 2: childcare tax. And it may not have been quite as

1781
01:42:04,960 --> 01:42:08,200
Speaker 2: generous as what we had in the in the pandemic recession,

1782
01:42:08,520 --> 01:42:10,160
Speaker 2: but it was it was plenty generous.

1783
01:42:10,920 --> 01:42:14,880
Speaker 1: Is there any worry as an economist that, uh, that

1784
01:42:15,400 --> 01:42:17,720
Speaker 1: in some ways that it in the same way that

1785
01:42:18,000 --> 01:42:21,800
Speaker 1: the insurance companies, because they know as government subsidy is coming,

1786
01:42:21,880 --> 01:42:24,080
Speaker 1: they kind of frankly mess with the prices so they're

1787
01:42:24,120 --> 01:42:27,439
Speaker 1: able to, you know, make sure they get some profit

1788
01:42:27,520 --> 01:42:28,840
Speaker 1: and they know people are going to have a certain

1789
01:42:28,840 --> 01:42:31,080
Speaker 1: amount of money. Do you worry that that happens to

1790
01:42:31,200 --> 01:42:36,040
Speaker 1: the to the that basically child childcare becomes an industry

1791
01:42:36,360 --> 01:42:37,040
Speaker 1: if you will.

1792
01:42:39,680 --> 01:42:42,760
Speaker 2: Not so much with childcare. I just think that the

1793
01:42:44,320 --> 01:42:48,080
Speaker 2: this is all get slightly technical. For a second, childcare

1794
01:42:48,120 --> 01:42:52,880
Speaker 2: has a very high supply elasticity, meaning that if people

1795
01:42:54,200 --> 01:42:57,519
Speaker 2: wanted and they have the resources to get it, you

1796
01:42:57,640 --> 01:43:01,760
Speaker 2: start seeing childcare centers pop up. So the responsiveness of

1797
01:43:01,920 --> 01:43:08,080
Speaker 2: childcare production to demand is quite strong. And you know,

1798
01:43:08,200 --> 01:43:12,160
Speaker 2: so that flexible elasticity there is helpful such that if

1799
01:43:12,280 --> 01:43:15,559
Speaker 2: we were able to provide people the subsidies they need,

1800
01:43:15,640 --> 01:43:17,200
Speaker 2: and when we have in the past, we've seen this.

1801
01:43:18,360 --> 01:43:21,479
Speaker 2: I don't think you see, you know, particularly even medium

1802
01:43:21,600 --> 01:43:23,120
Speaker 2: term pressures on costs.

1803
01:43:23,520 --> 01:43:24,880
Speaker 1: Do you end up I'm going to get you out

1804
01:43:24,880 --> 01:43:27,759
Speaker 1: of here, but do you end up imagining that instead

1805
01:43:27,800 --> 01:43:30,160
Speaker 1: of a childcare tax credit, it becomes a what I

1806
01:43:30,200 --> 01:43:33,639
Speaker 1: would call a home care tax credit, because maybe you're

1807
01:43:33,800 --> 01:43:35,080
Speaker 1: taken care of an elderly parent.

1808
01:43:36,160 --> 01:43:38,760
Speaker 2: Well, that's certainly something Biden was interested in. You know.

1809
01:43:38,840 --> 01:43:41,240
Speaker 2: I tend to like the idea of not even a

1810
01:43:41,320 --> 01:43:45,280
Speaker 2: childcare tax credit, but a child tax credit. If you're

1811
01:43:45,320 --> 01:43:48,360
Speaker 2: raising kids, your life is you've done this. I've done

1812
01:43:49,600 --> 01:43:52,040
Speaker 2: If you're raising kids, even if you've got a decent income,

1813
01:43:52,120 --> 01:43:55,880
Speaker 2: your life is a lot more expensive. Childcare can cost.

1814
01:43:56,120 --> 01:43:58,840
Speaker 2: You know, twenty five hundred dollars a month easily. In

1815
01:43:58,920 --> 01:44:00,200
Speaker 2: an area like this, you.

1816
01:44:00,280 --> 01:44:02,960
Speaker 1: Be in favor of a tax code that essentially played

1817
01:44:03,040 --> 01:44:06,160
Speaker 1: favorites with for parents with kids at home.

1818
01:44:06,439 --> 01:44:08,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, and some of those parents probably are in a

1819
01:44:08,439 --> 01:44:10,519
Speaker 2: Sandwich generation and if they want to use it for

1820
01:44:10,640 --> 01:44:12,920
Speaker 2: childcare or elder care, they could. But you know, I

1821
01:44:13,040 --> 01:44:15,960
Speaker 2: think a generous child tax credit that was targeted by

1822
01:44:16,000 --> 01:44:18,400
Speaker 2: the Way, which also helps keep the price down. I

1823
01:44:18,479 --> 01:44:19,960
Speaker 2: don't think we need to give it to you know,

1824
01:44:20,120 --> 01:44:21,240
Speaker 2: millionaires and billionaires.

1825
01:44:22,439 --> 01:44:24,519
Speaker 1: Jared, I'm gonna let you go. Where can people find

1826
01:44:24,560 --> 01:44:26,160
Speaker 1: your work? I know you've got a substack. Tell them

1827
01:44:26,200 --> 01:44:28,800
Speaker 1: where you're also, I think you're involved in a couple

1828
01:44:28,880 --> 01:44:29,920
Speaker 1: of things, so pitch away.

1829
01:44:30,000 --> 01:44:33,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I write. I write basically in three different places.

1830
01:44:35,000 --> 01:44:38,280
Speaker 2: Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research seeper You can see

1831
01:44:38,320 --> 01:44:41,479
Speaker 2: my work up there. So I think Center for American Progress.

1832
01:44:41,520 --> 01:44:44,680
Speaker 2: We've recently put a housing report on housing affordability. You

1833
01:44:44,720 --> 01:44:46,800
Speaker 2: can find that up there. It's called Build Baby Build.

1834
01:44:47,120 --> 01:44:49,479
Speaker 2: But then almost you know, every couple of days, I

1835
01:44:49,560 --> 01:44:52,320
Speaker 2: write something on my substack, which is called Jared substack,

1836
01:44:52,840 --> 01:44:55,080
Speaker 2: and it's easy to find. So that's where you can

1837
01:44:55,160 --> 01:44:55,799
Speaker 2: read my stuff.

1838
01:44:56,240 --> 01:44:59,040
Speaker 1: Excellent. It's great to catch up. I miss a. You know,

1839
01:44:59,120 --> 01:45:02,920
Speaker 1: we're ah. We joked to we used to occasionally be

1840
01:45:03,000 --> 01:45:05,600
Speaker 1: in the same pick up basketball game, but yeah, you know,

1841
01:45:06,200 --> 01:45:08,200
Speaker 1: I think that's behind both of us. My friend, Yeah,

1842
01:45:08,280 --> 01:45:11,680
Speaker 1: father time. Father time has scared us away on that.

1843
01:45:11,920 --> 01:45:15,360
Speaker 1: That and you know, fear of middle aged injuries at

1844
01:45:15,400 --> 01:45:15,760
Speaker 1: this point.

1845
01:45:16,040 --> 01:45:16,720
Speaker 2: Good to catch up.

1846
01:45:16,760 --> 01:45:28,559
Speaker 1: Theared appreciate it well. Of course, in promoting my Monday podcast,

1847
01:45:28,640 --> 01:45:31,600
Speaker 1: I forgot about my favorite segment, which no, it's not

1848
01:45:31,800 --> 01:45:34,559
Speaker 1: ranting about the college football playoff. My favorite segment every Mondays.

1849
01:45:34,560 --> 01:45:45,400
Speaker 1: Of course, it's the podcast time Machine. My time machine

1850
01:45:45,439 --> 01:45:50,000
Speaker 1: actually takes me. It's fascinating. This week in December is

1851
01:45:50,080 --> 01:45:55,840
Speaker 1: the anniversary of two key events that triggered two things,

1852
01:45:56,120 --> 01:46:00,960
Speaker 1: the growth of China and massive political realignment in the

1853
01:46:01,120 --> 01:46:04,880
Speaker 1: United States. So let's go through it. We're gonna step

1854
01:46:04,920 --> 01:46:07,360
Speaker 1: in the times that we're traveling through three different Decembers

1855
01:46:07,920 --> 01:46:11,920
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy eight, two thousand and one, and the December

1856
01:46:11,960 --> 01:46:14,800
Speaker 1: we're living in right now, December twenty twenty five. And

1857
01:46:14,840 --> 01:46:16,599
Speaker 1: it's three moments that, when you take them all together,

1858
01:46:17,120 --> 01:46:18,800
Speaker 1: tell the story of how the United States made a

1859
01:46:18,920 --> 01:46:21,920
Speaker 1: monumental bet on China, and how we are now quietly

1860
01:46:21,960 --> 01:46:24,719
Speaker 1: admitting that the bet didn't pay off the way we expected.

1861
01:46:25,439 --> 01:46:27,439
Speaker 1: And believe it or not, it's a story that begins

1862
01:46:27,479 --> 01:46:32,200
Speaker 1: with optimism, it passes through triumpolism, and ends with realism

1863
01:46:32,840 --> 01:46:36,240
Speaker 1: and maybe even resignation. Let's start in December nineteen seventy eight,

1864
01:46:36,320 --> 01:46:40,320
Speaker 1: this week where Jimmy Carter and Dng Chaoping announced the

1865
01:46:40,439 --> 01:46:43,640
Speaker 1: normalization of diplomatic relations between the United States and the

1866
01:46:43,680 --> 01:46:47,120
Speaker 1: People's Republic of China. The formal switch from Taipei to

1867
01:46:47,280 --> 01:46:51,040
Speaker 1: Beijing became official on January first of that year, but

1868
01:46:51,120 --> 01:46:55,439
Speaker 1: we announced it in this week in December nineteen seventy eight.

1869
01:46:57,120 --> 01:47:00,559
Speaker 1: On paper, this was a Cold war realignment decision practice,

1870
01:47:01,320 --> 01:47:03,599
Speaker 1: it was the moment the United States decided it could

1871
01:47:03,640 --> 01:47:07,960
Speaker 1: shape China's future by opening the door. But it was

1872
01:47:08,280 --> 01:47:11,040
Speaker 1: not some Kumbaya moment. The reactions at the time were

1873
01:47:11,120 --> 01:47:14,559
Speaker 1: all over the political map. The Republican realists the kit

1874
01:47:14,760 --> 01:47:17,400
Speaker 1: at that time. It was the Kissinger Scowcroft branch of

1875
01:47:17,439 --> 01:47:21,400
Speaker 1: the Republican Party applauded the move. Kissinger called the normalization

1876
01:47:21,560 --> 01:47:26,040
Speaker 1: quote an historic step toward a stable war. This wing

1877
01:47:26,160 --> 01:47:28,559
Speaker 1: of the Republican Party sought as a three dimensional chess

1878
01:47:28,600 --> 01:47:31,479
Speaker 1: play bring China closer to Washington as a way to

1879
01:47:31,600 --> 01:47:37,759
Speaker 1: check Moscow. Meanwhile, the Conservative Hawks were furious. Barry Goldwater

1880
01:47:38,040 --> 01:47:40,919
Speaker 1: said Carter had quote abandoned a trusted ally in Taiwan

1881
01:47:41,360 --> 01:47:43,880
Speaker 1: with hardly a second thought. Ronald Reagan, who was not

1882
01:47:44,000 --> 01:47:46,800
Speaker 1: yet the nominee for the Republican Party but already the

1883
01:47:46,880 --> 01:47:50,439
Speaker 1: ideological leader of this part of the conservative movement, accused

1884
01:47:50,479 --> 01:47:53,120
Speaker 1: Carter of quote selling out our friends for a theory

1885
01:47:53,280 --> 01:47:57,439
Speaker 1: of diplomacy. Then you had the democratic left, especially the

1886
01:47:57,520 --> 01:48:02,320
Speaker 1: human rights advocates, and Carter's own human rights chief privately

1887
01:48:02,439 --> 01:48:04,479
Speaker 1: warned that the move sent a message that quote human

1888
01:48:04,560 --> 01:48:08,879
Speaker 1: rights is negotiable when great powers are involved. The Congressional

1889
01:48:08,920 --> 01:48:11,400
Speaker 1: Black Caucus publicly asked why human rights were the centerpiece

1890
01:48:11,439 --> 01:48:14,200
Speaker 1: of US policy towards Latin America and South Africa, but

1891
01:48:14,360 --> 01:48:17,640
Speaker 1: not Beijing. And then there was the business community. How

1892
01:48:17,680 --> 01:48:22,280
Speaker 1: do you think they reacted? They were ecstatic. GM, Boeing

1893
01:48:22,439 --> 01:48:26,760
Speaker 1: and ge all launched internal studies immediately. Executive memos from

1894
01:48:26,800 --> 01:48:29,880
Speaker 1: the time read like prospectuses for the next gold rush.

1895
01:48:30,360 --> 01:48:32,680
Speaker 1: One Fortune five hundred CEO told The Washington Post at

1896
01:48:32,720 --> 01:48:35,599
Speaker 1: that time, China is the last great untapped market on Earth.

1897
01:48:35,760 --> 01:48:38,719
Speaker 1: We need to be there before the Europeans get there again.

1898
01:48:38,840 --> 01:48:43,080
Speaker 1: This was America December nineteen seventy eight, So in nineteen

1899
01:48:43,120 --> 01:48:44,920
Speaker 1: seventy eight you can already see the outlines of the

1900
01:48:44,960 --> 01:48:48,920
Speaker 1: emerging coalition foreign policy realists plus Wall Street plus ex

1901
01:48:49,000 --> 01:48:53,200
Speaker 1: borders on one side, ideologues, human rights actiatists, activists and

1902
01:48:53,320 --> 01:48:57,720
Speaker 1: manufacturing workers on the other. The beginning of a realignment

1903
01:48:57,800 --> 01:49:00,960
Speaker 1: right normalization wasn't the beginning of a debate about China, though.

1904
01:49:01,240 --> 01:49:03,880
Speaker 1: It was the beginning of an American consensus about China.

1905
01:49:04,439 --> 01:49:08,240
Speaker 1: And this was the consensus that was wrong. We now

1906
01:49:08,320 --> 01:49:11,360
Speaker 1: admit that we were wrong, but everybody seemed to believe

1907
01:49:11,400 --> 01:49:13,959
Speaker 1: it at the time, and the consensus was that engagement

1908
01:49:14,000 --> 01:49:19,120
Speaker 1: would moderate Beijing, reform its economy, and eventually soften its politics. Essentially,

1909
01:49:20,479 --> 01:49:24,000
Speaker 1: democracy would come with economic freedom. It's a great theory,

1910
01:49:24,760 --> 01:49:27,200
Speaker 1: and for a while it seemed like it could work.

1911
01:49:29,000 --> 01:49:32,960
Speaker 1: Then let's fast forward to another December Anniversary, twenty three

1912
01:49:33,000 --> 01:49:35,680
Speaker 1: years later. This is December eleventh, two thousand and one,

1913
01:49:36,360 --> 01:49:40,719
Speaker 1: China officially joins the World Trade Organization. This is probably

1914
01:49:40,800 --> 01:49:44,960
Speaker 1: the biggest hinge moment of modern globalization, and it's backed

1915
01:49:44,960 --> 01:49:48,880
Speaker 1: by another wave of bipartisan optimism. Bill Clinton, who negotiated

1916
01:49:48,960 --> 01:49:50,920
Speaker 1: the terms in his final year in office, had said

1917
01:49:50,960 --> 01:49:55,240
Speaker 1: earlier about China joining the WTO. Quote. By joining the WTO,

1918
01:49:55,360 --> 01:49:58,920
Speaker 1: China's agreed to play by the same global rules. This

1919
01:49:59,160 --> 01:50:02,639
Speaker 1: is a win for America. George W. Bush, who inherited

1920
01:50:02,680 --> 01:50:06,880
Speaker 1: the process, echoed the thought. He said, quote, A China

1921
01:50:06,920 --> 01:50:08,839
Speaker 1: that plays by the rules is a China that contributes

1922
01:50:08,880 --> 01:50:12,640
Speaker 1: to stability. So when you hear people talk about the uniparty,

1923
01:50:13,720 --> 01:50:16,200
Speaker 1: it was on topics like this that there was kind

1924
01:50:16,280 --> 01:50:19,200
Speaker 1: of a unified theory from the center left in the

1925
01:50:19,280 --> 01:50:22,519
Speaker 1: center right on all things China. Even Al Gore made

1926
01:50:22,560 --> 01:50:25,000
Speaker 1: the argument on the two thousand campaign trail. He said

1927
01:50:25,000 --> 01:50:29,800
Speaker 1: trade with China encourages openess, transparency, and reform. Well, in retrospect,

1928
01:50:30,160 --> 01:50:33,800
Speaker 1: what's striking isn't that Democrats and Republicans agreed on China

1929
01:50:33,840 --> 01:50:36,559
Speaker 1: in two thousand and one. It's how completely they agreed.

1930
01:50:36,960 --> 01:50:40,759
Speaker 1: There was really no there wasn't there was no debate

1931
01:50:40,840 --> 01:50:43,160
Speaker 1: about this. This is were a lot of things Bush

1932
01:50:43,240 --> 01:50:45,920
Speaker 1: and Gore agreed upon. Right, it was always the funniest election,

1933
01:50:46,120 --> 01:50:48,360
Speaker 1: Like there was a reason I always thought that election

1934
01:50:48,560 --> 01:50:52,599
Speaker 1: was essentially a tie because neither one of them made

1935
01:50:52,680 --> 01:50:54,880
Speaker 1: the case for why the other was wrong, because they

1936
01:50:54,960 --> 01:50:57,160
Speaker 1: kind of said, hey, I agree with him, so vote

1937
01:50:57,200 --> 01:51:01,120
Speaker 1: for May anyway. There are still some politics over this.

1938
01:51:01,240 --> 01:51:03,880
Speaker 1: The two thousand debate over Permanent Normal Trade Relations P

1939
01:51:04,000 --> 01:51:07,600
Speaker 1: and TR was a pretty fierce domestic fight during the

1940
01:51:07,640 --> 01:51:10,439
Speaker 1: Clinton years. A Flcio accused the administration of giving away

1941
01:51:10,520 --> 01:51:14,760
Speaker 1: the future of American manufacturing. Pap Ucanan called the wto

1942
01:51:14,840 --> 01:51:17,559
Speaker 1: vote the greatest surrender of American economic sovereignty in our history.

1943
01:51:18,000 --> 01:51:20,920
Speaker 1: So again, it's almost like the Sanders wing and the

1944
01:51:20,960 --> 01:51:24,400
Speaker 1: Trump wing. Right. Nancy Pelosi, she wasn't speaker at the

1945
01:51:24,439 --> 01:51:27,799
Speaker 1: time she voted against China P and TR. Bertie Sanders

1946
01:51:27,840 --> 01:51:31,799
Speaker 1: warned he was then just a house member, a socialist,

1947
01:51:32,040 --> 01:51:34,679
Speaker 1: but a house member from Vermont. He said, corporate America

1948
01:51:34,760 --> 01:51:38,320
Speaker 1: may profit, but American workers will suffer. He wasn't alone,

1949
01:51:38,439 --> 01:51:42,240
Speaker 1: Dick Epart then the Congressional Democratic leader Jesse Jackson. Much

1950
01:51:42,280 --> 01:51:45,040
Speaker 1: of the Democratic base did oppose it, so did a

1951
01:51:45,120 --> 01:51:47,800
Speaker 1: chunk of the Republican populous wing, very much more of

1952
01:51:47,840 --> 01:51:51,600
Speaker 1: the pap Buchanan crowd, But the corporate coalition was overwhelming

1953
01:51:51,680 --> 01:51:56,080
Speaker 1: Silicon Valley, Wall Street, Big AG, big retail manufacturers were

1954
01:51:56,120 --> 01:51:58,600
Speaker 1: looking for low cost labor. Everybody saw China as an

1955
01:51:58,640 --> 01:52:03,000
Speaker 1: economic accelerate. And here's where hindsight is pretty clarifying. We

1956
01:52:03,080 --> 01:52:06,120
Speaker 1: often talked about China Shock, the wave of job losses

1957
01:52:06,160 --> 01:52:08,920
Speaker 1: that hit industrial communities into two thousands, But what we

1958
01:52:08,960 --> 01:52:11,640
Speaker 1: don't talk about enough is how bipartisan this decision was

1959
01:52:11,720 --> 01:52:15,559
Speaker 1: that allowed that shock to happen. It was left and right.

1960
01:52:15,600 --> 01:52:18,640
Speaker 1: When China joined the WTO, the United States entered the

1961
01:52:18,720 --> 01:52:22,920
Speaker 1: era of the China Price, the idea that everything steel, electronics, furniture, toys,

1962
01:52:22,960 --> 01:52:26,719
Speaker 1: clothing would be cheaper if it came from China. Consumers

1963
01:52:26,760 --> 01:52:32,519
Speaker 1: loved it, investors loved it, retailers loved it. But the

1964
01:52:32,560 --> 01:52:36,559
Speaker 1: political bill that would come due about a decade later.

1965
01:52:38,720 --> 01:52:40,599
Speaker 1: And this is where the two thousand election becomes such

1966
01:52:40,600 --> 01:52:43,599
Speaker 1: an important pivot point. I think in this story because

1967
01:52:43,640 --> 01:52:46,800
Speaker 1: it's the last time both presidential nominees fully embraced the

1968
01:52:46,880 --> 01:52:50,639
Speaker 1: same form policy worldview. George W. Bush and al Gore.

1969
01:52:50,880 --> 01:52:54,679
Speaker 1: They disagreed on taxes on the Social Security lock box.

1970
01:52:55,479 --> 01:52:57,720
Speaker 1: That's the best Al Go or I can do in

1971
01:52:57,840 --> 01:53:02,000
Speaker 1: a lock box. And they disagreed on a few other things,

1972
01:53:02,200 --> 01:53:05,320
Speaker 1: but on China, they spoke with the same vocabulary. Bush

1973
01:53:05,360 --> 01:53:07,519
Speaker 1: said during the campaign, the best way to encourage freedom

1974
01:53:07,560 --> 01:53:10,360
Speaker 1: in China has to engaged China. Gore said, we benefit

1975
01:53:10,439 --> 01:53:13,920
Speaker 1: when China follows global rules and trade. Both supported normalization,

1976
01:53:14,080 --> 01:53:16,400
Speaker 1: both supported P and TR, both supported China and the

1977
01:53:16,520 --> 01:53:21,200
Speaker 1: wto Now. Bush took a tougher rhetorical line on China,

1978
01:53:21,320 --> 01:53:25,360
Speaker 1: called China quote a strategic competitor, not a strategic partner. Ah,

1979
01:53:25,479 --> 01:53:27,960
Speaker 1: but that was tone now policy. Bush backed the same

1980
01:53:28,080 --> 01:53:31,080
Speaker 1: trade approach that Clinton did, and Gore paid a political

1981
01:53:31,160 --> 01:53:34,639
Speaker 1: price for embracing that consensus. Union leaders told them directly

1982
01:53:34,760 --> 01:53:37,560
Speaker 1: China P and TR was the final betrayal of Clintonism.

1983
01:53:38,200 --> 01:53:41,360
Speaker 1: Midwestern workers didn't hear rules based trade system. They simply

1984
01:53:41,439 --> 01:53:46,600
Speaker 1: heard factory moving to Guangzhou. The irony is at the

1985
01:53:46,600 --> 01:53:50,160
Speaker 1: political base that would later revolt against globalization. The Trump

1986
01:53:50,240 --> 01:53:53,280
Speaker 1: burning populist alignment was warning about it in real time,

1987
01:53:53,840 --> 01:53:57,000
Speaker 1: but in two thousand, neither movement was big enough in

1988
01:53:57,120 --> 01:54:00,240
Speaker 1: either party to make either one of them. A little

1989
01:54:00,240 --> 01:54:02,360
Speaker 1: bit of Nator talking about it as a third party candidate,

1990
01:54:02,479 --> 01:54:04,200
Speaker 1: a little bit of Buchanan talking about it as a

1991
01:54:04,240 --> 01:54:06,720
Speaker 1: third party candidate, but they got about one or two

1992
01:54:06,760 --> 01:54:10,120
Speaker 1: percent total. So when China joined the WTO in December

1993
01:54:10,160 --> 01:54:13,519
Speaker 1: twenty one, it wasn't a partisan victory. It was the

1994
01:54:13,640 --> 01:54:17,200
Speaker 1: last gas, but the uniparty consensus unfeigned policy, the belief

1995
01:54:17,280 --> 01:54:22,000
Speaker 1: that engaging China will liberalize China, not transform America. History,

1996
01:54:22,040 --> 01:54:27,360
Speaker 1: of course, had other plans. So I this is the

1997
01:54:27,400 --> 01:54:29,280
Speaker 1: point of our story where we ought to talk about

1998
01:54:29,400 --> 01:54:32,000
Speaker 1: the thought experiment here, what if the United States had

1999
01:54:32,040 --> 01:54:37,520
Speaker 1: blocked China's WTO and tree? Okay, Well, economists who studied

2000
01:54:37,520 --> 01:54:40,000
Speaker 1: the counterfactor'll say two things. China still probably becomes a

2001
01:54:40,080 --> 01:54:44,040
Speaker 1: manufacturing superpower, just more gradually and probably more dependent on

2002
01:54:44,080 --> 01:54:47,640
Speaker 1: Europe and Japan. The United States still loses industrial jobs

2003
01:54:47,680 --> 01:54:50,040
Speaker 1: because that trend began in the nineteen nineties, five years

2004
01:54:50,120 --> 01:54:58,000
Speaker 1: before the WTO extension for China. So what probably changes

2005
01:54:58,040 --> 01:55:01,360
Speaker 1: simply pace, not trajectory. I have twenty ten factory to

2006
01:55:01,440 --> 01:55:05,040
Speaker 1: the world probably still exists. The political shockwaves in places

2007
01:55:05,120 --> 01:55:08,760
Speaker 1: like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Maybe they're softened a little, or

2008
01:55:08,800 --> 01:55:13,480
Speaker 1: they're delayed, but they land, and maybe the populist backlash

2009
01:55:13,560 --> 01:55:18,560
Speaker 1: arrives in say the midterms of twenty eighteen rather than

2010
01:55:18,600 --> 01:55:21,840
Speaker 1: in twenty ten, or maybe the backlash happens anyway, because

2011
01:55:21,880 --> 01:55:24,080
Speaker 1: globalization was going to be bigger than any single vote.

2012
01:55:24,120 --> 01:55:30,560
Speaker 1: The point is is that it's probably not clear that

2013
01:55:30,720 --> 01:55:33,680
Speaker 1: anything was going to stop the rise of China, which

2014
01:55:33,760 --> 01:55:36,760
Speaker 1: is always the argument the realists make. So the question

2015
01:55:37,000 --> 01:55:39,960
Speaker 1: was can we shape China? So here we are in

2016
01:55:40,000 --> 01:55:45,480
Speaker 1: the present moment. I opened this podcast talking about the

2017
01:55:45,560 --> 01:55:49,280
Speaker 1: National Security Strategy Memo that was just released by this administration.

2018
01:55:50,200 --> 01:55:55,720
Speaker 1: And this is the first US government document that clearly

2019
01:55:55,760 --> 01:55:58,240
Speaker 1: admits the fifty year bet on China didn't work out

2020
01:55:58,280 --> 01:56:01,280
Speaker 1: as expected. Does not call for a new Cold War,

2021
01:56:01,840 --> 01:56:04,400
Speaker 1: It does not frame China as an ideological enemy. It

2022
01:56:04,480 --> 01:56:08,280
Speaker 1: does not talk about containing China or transforming China. Instead,

2023
01:56:08,360 --> 01:56:12,440
Speaker 1: the through line of this Trump Security Strategy Memo is simple,

2024
01:56:12,960 --> 01:56:16,320
Speaker 1: China's a permanent strategic rival. We are not trying to

2025
01:56:16,400 --> 01:56:19,000
Speaker 1: hold China back anymore. We are going to try to

2026
01:56:19,000 --> 01:56:24,320
Speaker 1: strengthen ourselves and compete with China. The seventy eight bet

2027
01:56:24,480 --> 01:56:27,480
Speaker 1: was that opening China will shape China. The two thousand

2028
01:56:27,480 --> 01:56:30,320
Speaker 1: and one bet was that integrating China will moderate China.

2029
01:56:31,360 --> 01:56:34,160
Speaker 1: The twenty twenty five memo now basically says China is

2030
01:56:34,200 --> 01:56:38,600
Speaker 1: now fully integrated, fully powerful, fully assertive, and the task

2031
01:56:38,760 --> 01:56:42,080
Speaker 1: is now to compete with it, not to change it. Essentially,

2032
01:56:42,160 --> 01:56:45,960
Speaker 1: we're surrendering. So you see these themes throughout the document itself.

2033
01:56:46,040 --> 01:56:49,200
Speaker 1: Rebuilding the US industrial base, securing supply chains, investing in

2034
01:56:49,240 --> 01:56:54,280
Speaker 1: American technology, the decoupling, if you will, stabilizing relations without illusions,

2035
01:56:54,320 --> 01:56:59,200
Speaker 1: preparing for long term competition. It's not full disengagement. It

2036
01:56:59,280 --> 01:57:05,800
Speaker 1: seems to be just simply acceptance, strategic acceptance. The United

2037
01:57:05,840 --> 01:57:08,920
Speaker 1: States finally acknowledging the reality shaped by decisions made in

2038
01:57:08,960 --> 01:57:14,040
Speaker 1: those two earlier decembers. Carter in nineteen seventy eight, which

2039
01:57:14,120 --> 01:57:17,320
Speaker 1: of course was preceded by Nixon going to China right again,

2040
01:57:17,520 --> 01:57:23,320
Speaker 1: a bipartisan move, and then China and the wto begun

2041
01:57:23,440 --> 01:57:29,000
Speaker 1: by Clinton, executed and finished by Bush. So in seventy eight,

2042
01:57:29,040 --> 01:57:31,560
Speaker 1: the US made a geopolitical bet that engaging China will

2043
01:57:31,560 --> 01:57:33,680
Speaker 1: help win the Cold War and encourage reform in Beijing.

2044
01:57:35,280 --> 01:57:38,240
Speaker 1: Arguably it might have done that right. We might have

2045
01:57:38,880 --> 01:57:44,080
Speaker 1: helping separate China might have made Russia's the Soviets life

2046
01:57:44,480 --> 01:57:47,360
Speaker 1: a little more challenging, so that we can't say That

2047
01:57:47,440 --> 01:57:51,760
Speaker 1: bet didn't work, since we did win the Cold War

2048
01:57:51,800 --> 01:57:54,160
Speaker 1: against the Soviets. But by two thousand and one, the

2049
01:57:54,280 --> 01:57:57,320
Speaker 1: United States made an economic bet that integrating China into

2050
01:57:57,360 --> 01:58:00,720
Speaker 1: the global trading system would expand global prosperity and lock

2051
01:58:00,880 --> 01:58:05,560
Speaker 1: China in to a rules based world where they might

2052
01:58:06,280 --> 01:58:10,320
Speaker 1: start to become small d democratic. Well, both bets did

2053
01:58:10,440 --> 01:58:13,680
Speaker 1: reshape China, but boy did they reshape the United States.

2054
01:58:14,080 --> 01:58:18,040
Speaker 1: They reshaped us economically, politically, and socially. And here we

2055
01:58:18,120 --> 01:58:21,520
Speaker 1: are in December of twenty twenty five. The question now

2056
01:58:21,760 --> 01:58:24,960
Speaker 1: is not how we are going to change China confront China.

2057
01:58:25,080 --> 01:58:27,680
Speaker 1: It is simply, now, how do we compete with China?

2058
01:58:28,680 --> 01:58:33,080
Speaker 1: So we helped create China, we helped bring upon this competitor,

2059
01:58:34,400 --> 01:58:38,200
Speaker 1: and now we're surrendering and hoping we can just stay

2060
01:58:38,480 --> 01:58:45,560
Speaker 1: competitive with the new manufacturing King of a Hill, China.

2061
01:58:46,960 --> 01:58:58,600
Speaker 1: There's your time machine time capsule of the week. All right,

2062
01:59:00,080 --> 01:59:01,520
Speaker 1: let me sneak at a few questions before I get

2063
01:59:01,560 --> 01:59:07,960
Speaker 1: to college football. Ask Chuck all right, first question comes

2064
01:59:08,120 --> 01:59:11,200
Speaker 1: from Shane H from Des Moines. I always says, hey, Chuck,

2065
01:59:11,200 --> 01:59:13,600
Speaker 1: congrats and Miami making the CFP head to head should

2066
01:59:13,600 --> 01:59:16,360
Speaker 1: always count. I'm curious about the Iowa Democrats hesitancy to

2067
01:59:16,440 --> 01:59:19,280
Speaker 1: push for first in the Nation status again, give them

2068
01:59:19,320 --> 01:59:21,840
Speaker 1: the state's accessibility and engaged voters. Wouldn't it make more

2069
01:59:21,880 --> 01:59:23,720
Speaker 1: sense for both parties to go along, go all in

2070
01:59:23,800 --> 01:59:26,280
Speaker 1: together rather than play it safe. Also, could you someday

2071
01:59:26,320 --> 01:59:29,480
Speaker 1: explain how Obama's influence reshaped or damaged the DNC beyond

2072
01:59:29,520 --> 01:59:34,480
Speaker 1: just backing Hillary. Shane H. Des moines, Iowa, Look, it is,

2073
01:59:34,800 --> 01:59:42,960
Speaker 1: there is this. I don't have a good answer on why. Well,

2074
01:59:43,000 --> 01:59:45,200
Speaker 1: I could tell you why the National Democrats don't want

2075
01:59:45,200 --> 01:59:48,160
Speaker 1: to be in Iowa. Right. There's first of all, one

2076
01:59:48,400 --> 01:59:51,400
Speaker 1: is they don't they believe the base of the party

2077
01:59:51,720 --> 01:59:54,480
Speaker 1: is not there's no parts of the base of the

2078
01:59:54,520 --> 01:59:59,120
Speaker 1: party in Iowa. You know, Well, that's a choice, right,

2079
02:00:00,080 --> 02:00:03,080
Speaker 1: choose to believe that. But there is a sense that

2080
02:00:03,240 --> 02:00:06,879
Speaker 1: Iowa doesn't look like what Democratic leaders think the Democratic

2081
02:00:06,920 --> 02:00:09,400
Speaker 1: Party looks like. But I would argue that's been part

2082
02:00:09,400 --> 02:00:12,600
Speaker 1: of the problem is that the Democrats have been looking

2083
02:00:12,920 --> 02:00:17,760
Speaker 1: at organizing their party through the through the prism of

2084
02:00:17,840 --> 02:00:23,440
Speaker 1: identity rather than the prism of ideology or policy or

2085
02:00:24,280 --> 02:00:30,440
Speaker 1: frankly realism. Given you know, if I were looking at

2086
02:00:30,480 --> 02:00:33,720
Speaker 1: the problem the Democratic Party as it's communicating with rural America.

2087
02:00:34,280 --> 02:00:36,120
Speaker 1: I'd look around and say, what's the best way to

2088
02:00:36,200 --> 02:00:39,080
Speaker 1: do that. When's the last time Democrats did well in

2089
02:00:39,160 --> 02:00:42,400
Speaker 1: the industrial Midwest and the agriculture Midwest. Oh, when Iowa

2090
02:00:42,480 --> 02:00:44,320
Speaker 1: was first in the nation and a guy named Barack

2091
02:00:44,360 --> 02:00:48,680
Speaker 1: Obama who was from the Midwest. Mind you always thought

2092
02:00:48,720 --> 02:00:51,640
Speaker 1: that people underestimated the fact that being from the Midwest

2093
02:00:51,760 --> 02:00:55,200
Speaker 1: was such an asset to him. You know, it's not

2094
02:00:55,320 --> 02:00:58,080
Speaker 1: lost on me that the coastal nominees have been have

2095
02:00:58,240 --> 02:01:01,680
Speaker 1: been the losers right right Delaware on the Atlantic coast.

2096
02:01:03,040 --> 02:01:06,240
Speaker 1: You know, he won, but then it couldn't survive. Kamala

2097
02:01:06,320 --> 02:01:11,720
Speaker 1: Harris coastal, John Kerry coastal. Hillary Clinton identifying as a

2098
02:01:11,760 --> 02:01:15,520
Speaker 1: New Yorker coastal she'd have been better off going to

2099
02:01:15,600 --> 02:01:19,080
Speaker 1: Illinois to run for office in which is her original

2100
02:01:19,160 --> 02:01:24,440
Speaker 1: home state. So I think the whole coastal elite issue,

2101
02:01:24,480 --> 02:01:27,520
Speaker 1: I think is a real issue. You know, you look

2102
02:01:27,520 --> 02:01:30,480
Speaker 1: at Bill Clinton deep south Arkansas. You look at Barack

2103
02:01:30,480 --> 02:01:32,720
Speaker 1: Obama right in the middle of the country in the

2104
02:01:32,760 --> 02:01:38,520
Speaker 1: Midwest in Illinois. Look at a Jimmy Carter deep South Georgia.

2105
02:01:39,440 --> 02:01:42,400
Speaker 1: I don't think those things are accidents. You look at

2106
02:01:42,400 --> 02:01:45,640
Speaker 1: a guy like Pete Bootage getting traction again a Midwesterner.

2107
02:01:45,760 --> 02:01:52,400
Speaker 1: So I don't if you don't want to do Iowa

2108
02:01:52,480 --> 02:01:54,440
Speaker 1: because you don't like the caucus process. And I do

2109
02:01:54,560 --> 02:01:58,560
Speaker 1: think this is a tactical and mechanical critique, if you will,

2110
02:01:58,840 --> 02:02:01,720
Speaker 1: Because to psychic in a row, the Iowa Democrats couldn't

2111
02:02:01,760 --> 02:02:03,960
Speaker 1: tell us who won the Iowa caucuses. So I do

2112
02:02:04,120 --> 02:02:07,360
Speaker 1: think that was a fair demerit. But just abandoning the

2113
02:02:07,400 --> 02:02:09,560
Speaker 1: Midwest as first in the nation, I think it's been

2114
02:02:09,600 --> 02:02:12,240
Speaker 1: a mistake. So if you're not going to do Iowa, fine,

2115
02:02:12,320 --> 02:02:15,720
Speaker 1: do Nebraska, do Kansas, but pick a small rural state

2116
02:02:15,840 --> 02:02:18,760
Speaker 1: in the Midwest. Just if you can't figure that out,

2117
02:02:18,840 --> 02:02:23,280
Speaker 1: you're not going to be competitive long term for the presidency.

2118
02:02:24,280 --> 02:02:26,480
Speaker 1: I don't think rural southern voters are the way in.

2119
02:02:26,760 --> 02:02:30,760
Speaker 1: I think you begin in the rural Midwest. That's where

2120
02:02:30,920 --> 02:02:34,120
Speaker 1: you're not going to fully get rejected. And ask for

2121
02:02:34,160 --> 02:02:38,160
Speaker 1: your question about the DNC. They didn't prop up the

2122
02:02:38,240 --> 02:02:40,640
Speaker 1: DNC at all when they first came in. This is yes,

2123
02:02:40,880 --> 02:02:43,960
Speaker 1: you are referring to what I think the original sin

2124
02:02:44,040 --> 02:02:48,400
Speaker 1: of Obama endorsing Hillary in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen,

2125
02:02:48,400 --> 02:02:50,720
Speaker 1: which was sort of not realizing that that isn't where

2126
02:02:50,920 --> 02:02:53,840
Speaker 1: half the party wanted to go. But when it comes

2127
02:02:53,880 --> 02:02:55,920
Speaker 1: to the DNC and the sort of party in general,

2128
02:02:56,560 --> 02:02:58,840
Speaker 1: you know, they refuse to sort of build the DNC

2129
02:02:58,920 --> 02:03:00,880
Speaker 1: at first. They sort of built an alternative to the

2130
02:03:01,000 --> 02:03:04,920
Speaker 1: DNC called Organizing for America, and you know, and I

2131
02:03:05,000 --> 02:03:08,760
Speaker 1: think it was unfortunately. I think he was surrounded by

2132
02:03:08,800 --> 02:03:11,280
Speaker 1: advisors who were who weren't big fans of the DNC,

2133
02:03:11,880 --> 02:03:16,040
Speaker 1: and the DNC in O eight was quietly helping Hillary right,

2134
02:03:16,200 --> 02:03:19,280
Speaker 1: she was sort of more of the party stalwart. Obama

2135
02:03:19,520 --> 02:03:22,560
Speaker 1: and his team were the outsiders. And I think the

2136
02:03:23,720 --> 02:03:29,760
Speaker 1: and I think the belief and the brand of outsider

2137
02:03:30,160 --> 02:03:33,360
Speaker 1: that team Obama wanted to keep even while they got

2138
02:03:33,400 --> 02:03:37,120
Speaker 1: to the White House, seemed to convince them that they

2139
02:03:37,160 --> 02:03:43,200
Speaker 1: ought to build their own national political organization. And they

2140
02:03:43,720 --> 02:03:46,920
Speaker 1: basically what was ofa right, what was Obama for America

2141
02:03:46,960 --> 02:03:50,200
Speaker 1: became Organizing for America and it was housed within the DNC.

2142
02:03:50,880 --> 02:03:53,040
Speaker 1: But all of the resources, all of the efforts went

2143
02:03:53,080 --> 02:03:56,120
Speaker 1: to that it didn't really work, It didn't become the

2144
02:03:56,240 --> 02:03:59,760
Speaker 1: powerful political organization to help support his agenda, which is

2145
02:03:59,800 --> 02:04:02,560
Speaker 1: what it was pitched as that this was going to

2146
02:04:02,680 --> 02:04:05,560
Speaker 1: be the continuation of the Obama movement and these people

2147
02:04:05,560 --> 02:04:07,640
Speaker 1: would get engaged when he was trying to, you know,

2148
02:04:07,760 --> 02:04:11,240
Speaker 1: do big things past big pieces of legislation, whether it's healthcare,

2149
02:04:11,720 --> 02:04:14,840
Speaker 1: whether it has to do the environment, etc. That didn't

2150
02:04:14,880 --> 02:04:16,880
Speaker 1: really work out so well. And then by the time,

2151
02:04:17,640 --> 02:04:21,400
Speaker 1: you know, the problem was the DNC is just a vehicle.

2152
02:04:22,320 --> 02:04:26,480
Speaker 1: They kind of starved that vehicle, and of course starving

2153
02:04:26,560 --> 02:04:30,080
Speaker 1: that vehicle meant very few resources to the states. Well

2154
02:04:30,120 --> 02:04:32,440
Speaker 1: what happened by twenty ten? They get wiped out of

2155
02:04:32,440 --> 02:04:36,880
Speaker 1: the state legislatures by twenty What does that mean? Republicans

2156
02:04:36,920 --> 02:04:41,400
Speaker 1: basically control redistricting for a decade and a half. Only

2157
02:04:41,600 --> 02:04:44,920
Speaker 1: recently have Democrats started to make up ground back in

2158
02:04:45,000 --> 02:04:48,400
Speaker 1: these state legislatures. So I do think that the Obama

2159
02:04:48,440 --> 02:04:51,200
Speaker 1: folks that came into the first term of that Obama

2160
02:04:51,280 --> 02:04:54,560
Speaker 1: White House were determined to build their own political structure,

2161
02:04:54,600 --> 02:04:58,360
Speaker 1: their own organization sort of push aside the DNC, and

2162
02:04:58,480 --> 02:05:01,160
Speaker 1: it just turned out to be a logistic mistake. Look,

2163
02:05:01,200 --> 02:05:03,240
Speaker 1: the DNC, you make it whatever you are. But this

2164
02:05:03,360 --> 02:05:05,360
Speaker 1: idea they thought they were going to be elected president

2165
02:05:05,440 --> 02:05:08,280
Speaker 1: and be an outsider in the Democratic Party. Once you've

2166
02:05:08,360 --> 02:05:12,960
Speaker 1: become president, you've become leader of the party. You need

2167
02:05:13,000 --> 02:05:15,320
Speaker 1: to accept that role. And I would argue for a

2168
02:05:15,400 --> 02:05:17,760
Speaker 1: couple of years they didn't accept that role. They accept

2169
02:05:17,800 --> 02:05:19,560
Speaker 1: that they were leader of the free world. They accept

2170
02:05:19,600 --> 02:05:20,960
Speaker 1: that they were president of the United States, and they

2171
02:05:20,960 --> 02:05:24,640
Speaker 1: accepted that they were the biggest brand inside the Democratic coalition.

2172
02:05:26,000 --> 02:05:28,040
Speaker 1: But there were a lot of people whispering in Obama's

2173
02:05:28,040 --> 02:05:30,880
Speaker 1: ear that, hey, your brand and coalition's bigger than one party,

2174
02:05:31,880 --> 02:05:36,000
Speaker 1: So don't get too caught up in the DNC politics.

2175
02:05:36,040 --> 02:05:39,840
Speaker 1: And there's certainly some bureaucracy that comes with that, But

2176
02:05:40,000 --> 02:05:42,320
Speaker 1: that's what I mean when I you know, and sort

2177
02:05:42,360 --> 02:05:45,960
Speaker 1: of that attitude just sort of gutted the sort of

2178
02:05:46,080 --> 02:05:49,040
Speaker 1: infrastructure of the Democratic Party, both on the state level

2179
02:05:49,080 --> 02:05:51,760
Speaker 1: and on the national level, and it allowed it to

2180
02:05:51,840 --> 02:05:54,640
Speaker 1: atrophy for a good cycle or two. And it really

2181
02:05:55,360 --> 02:05:57,959
Speaker 1: you know, Hillary Clinton threw more money at it in sixteen,

2182
02:05:58,600 --> 02:06:00,840
Speaker 1: Joe Biden tried to throw more money at it in twenty.

2183
02:06:01,960 --> 02:06:04,120
Speaker 1: But I would argue that the reason it feels like

2184
02:06:04,160 --> 02:06:08,320
Speaker 1: a weak link even today goes back to that initial

2185
02:06:08,360 --> 02:06:10,800
Speaker 1: decision in twenty oh nine, when the team Obama came

2186
02:06:10,840 --> 02:06:14,680
Speaker 1: in on this big frankly now looks like a landslide

2187
02:06:14,720 --> 02:06:17,640
Speaker 1: compared to presidential elections. The couple we had before and

2188
02:06:17,840 --> 02:06:21,160
Speaker 1: quite a few that we've had after, and they didn't

2189
02:06:21,680 --> 02:06:25,240
Speaker 1: They didn't decide to build rebuild the Democratic Party in

2190
02:06:25,320 --> 02:06:28,360
Speaker 1: their image. They instead wanted to build their own sort

2191
02:06:28,400 --> 02:06:33,680
Speaker 1: of alternative independent committee in their own image. But by

2192
02:06:33,800 --> 02:06:39,440
Speaker 1: doing that they starved the party itself of resources. All right,

2193
02:06:39,560 --> 02:06:42,240
Speaker 1: let me sneak in. I give you it was not

2194
02:06:42,360 --> 02:06:44,120
Speaker 1: a long question, but I gave you a couple of

2195
02:06:44,200 --> 02:06:46,520
Speaker 1: long answers there. Next question comes from Patrick from the

2196
02:06:46,600 --> 02:06:50,480
Speaker 1: Hague by way of Hertford, Connecticut. He says, and he says, Chuck,

2197
02:06:50,520 --> 02:06:52,480
Speaker 1: really appreciate the clarity and sharp analysis you bring to

2198
02:06:52,520 --> 02:06:55,960
Speaker 1: every episode. It's become my go to listen. Excellent. Hopefully

2199
02:06:55,960 --> 02:06:58,680
Speaker 1: I've got you worried about college football, not too. I've

2200
02:06:58,680 --> 02:07:00,440
Speaker 1: heard people say that Kamala Harris might actually make a

2201
02:07:00,480 --> 02:07:03,120
Speaker 1: stronger Supreme Court justice than President. I've been one of

2202
02:07:03,160 --> 02:07:05,760
Speaker 1: those people, and it got me thinking if one branch

2203
02:07:05,800 --> 02:07:08,120
Speaker 1: of government could draft a member from another, who would

2204
02:07:08,120 --> 02:07:09,960
Speaker 1: be the best fit, Which current justice would make a

2205
02:07:10,000 --> 02:07:12,320
Speaker 1: great member of Congress and while plenty of members of

2206
02:07:12,400 --> 02:07:15,160
Speaker 1: Congress move into the executive branch, what about the reverse

2207
02:07:15,280 --> 02:07:18,000
Speaker 1: one are Elizabeth Warren's path to elected office? Curious to

2208
02:07:18,080 --> 02:07:23,760
Speaker 1: hear your thoughts. I think that's a fun exercise of

2209
02:07:23,960 --> 02:07:27,520
Speaker 1: who would be a good you know. I think John

2210
02:07:27,640 --> 02:07:32,560
Speaker 1: Roberts might be a pretty good Senate leader. He seems

2211
02:07:32,600 --> 02:07:35,000
Speaker 1: to be pretty good at sort of dealing with you know,

2212
02:07:35,080 --> 02:07:38,800
Speaker 1: probably a Senate Republican leader, pretty good at dealing with

2213
02:07:38,920 --> 02:07:44,200
Speaker 1: the ideological diversity of the rights, tries to create a consensus, right,

2214
02:07:44,360 --> 02:07:47,320
Speaker 1: if you know. I think I think in some ways

2215
02:07:47,360 --> 02:07:49,400
Speaker 1: he might be better as Senate Republican leader than he

2216
02:07:49,520 --> 02:07:52,080
Speaker 1: is as Chief Justice on that front, but I think

2217
02:07:52,400 --> 02:07:55,440
Speaker 1: he's definitely got a little bit of that skill set.

2218
02:07:57,360 --> 02:08:01,000
Speaker 1: I think Sonya Sotomayor would be a pretty good party leader.

2219
02:08:01,320 --> 02:08:03,840
Speaker 1: I don't know if she would be a good legislative leader.

2220
02:08:03,840 --> 02:08:06,200
Speaker 1: I think there's a difference, right, but I think she

2221
02:08:06,320 --> 02:08:09,560
Speaker 1: speaks with a lot of clarity, she speaks with a

2222
02:08:09,640 --> 02:08:14,760
Speaker 1: lot of passion, So I think sort of almost as

2223
02:08:14,800 --> 02:08:17,280
Speaker 1: a in that sense, I think you would see that

2224
02:08:19,680 --> 02:08:21,560
Speaker 1: the reason I'll tell you my theory of why I've

2225
02:08:21,560 --> 02:08:25,280
Speaker 1: always thought Kamala Harris won't. Frankly, probably, I think the

2226
02:08:25,400 --> 02:08:27,880
Speaker 1: first dream job. You know, if you talk about you

2227
02:08:27,960 --> 02:08:31,400
Speaker 1: get into politics, what are your dream jobs. I'm convinced

2228
02:08:31,440 --> 02:08:33,480
Speaker 1: her first dream job was not president, that it was

2229
02:08:33,800 --> 02:08:35,920
Speaker 1: either attorney general or Supreme Court. Why do I say

2230
02:08:35,960 --> 02:08:38,080
Speaker 1: that because the first office she chose to run for

2231
02:08:38,280 --> 02:08:42,120
Speaker 1: was prosecutor. You know, usually our want to be presidents.

2232
02:08:42,200 --> 02:08:45,040
Speaker 1: They're running, they're trying to fast track their way to Congress.

2233
02:08:45,960 --> 02:08:48,400
Speaker 1: Running for DA in San Francisco is not a fast

2234
02:08:48,480 --> 02:08:52,480
Speaker 1: track to Congress. That wasn't somebody that was her where

2235
02:08:52,520 --> 02:08:56,520
Speaker 1: whose first goal was to get to Washington. Usually my

2236
02:08:56,600 --> 02:08:58,920
Speaker 1: presidential wanta be is their first goal is to kit

2237
02:08:58,960 --> 02:09:02,640
Speaker 1: to Washington. However, long at Dates right, and that wasn't

2238
02:09:02,680 --> 02:09:04,560
Speaker 1: her first goal, even as she went to school here

2239
02:09:04,600 --> 02:09:07,560
Speaker 1: in DC at Howard Right. So I've always looked at

2240
02:09:07,600 --> 02:09:09,880
Speaker 1: that and wondered, huh, I think and I buy it.

2241
02:09:10,240 --> 02:09:12,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think it's it's BS. I do

2242
02:09:12,280 --> 02:09:14,760
Speaker 1: think she's animated by the law. I think she's animated

2243
02:09:14,800 --> 02:09:19,040
Speaker 1: by these things. And I think somebody whispered in her

2244
02:09:19,080 --> 02:09:21,400
Speaker 1: ear sometime, you know, when she got talked into it,

2245
02:09:21,520 --> 02:09:23,560
Speaker 1: because look at the next office she runs for. It

2246
02:09:23,640 --> 02:09:26,200
Speaker 1: from DA. She runs for attorney General, right, she doesn't

2247
02:09:26,240 --> 02:09:29,200
Speaker 1: immediately go to US Senate or something like that, and

2248
02:09:29,320 --> 02:09:31,840
Speaker 1: then she gets you know, she runs for the Senate

2249
02:09:31,880 --> 02:09:35,000
Speaker 1: seat when it opens up, and somebody whispers in her ear,

2250
02:09:35,040 --> 02:09:36,640
Speaker 1: you know, you could be the first woman president. And

2251
02:09:36,720 --> 02:09:40,160
Speaker 1: I don't think, look, anybody, any human being, we all

2252
02:09:40,200 --> 02:09:42,360
Speaker 1: have a little bit of ego. Somebody whispers that in

2253
02:09:42,440 --> 02:09:46,800
Speaker 1: your ear, and it's plausible. Maybe you don't stop hearing it. Right,

2254
02:09:47,080 --> 02:09:53,080
Speaker 1: So that's where I've always come down on that. But look,

2255
02:09:53,120 --> 02:09:55,680
Speaker 1: I think I think James Langford would make a really

2256
02:09:55,720 --> 02:09:57,960
Speaker 1: good you know, if you're looking at like and I'll

2257
02:09:58,000 --> 02:10:00,160
Speaker 1: be honest, I think we need an a life that

2258
02:10:00,400 --> 02:10:03,560
Speaker 1: somebody who's run for office before ought to be in

2259
02:10:03,600 --> 02:10:05,600
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, I think it's terrible that we haven't

2260
02:10:05,640 --> 02:10:08,880
Speaker 1: had anybody. I think you need that diversity of understanding

2261
02:10:09,560 --> 02:10:12,320
Speaker 1: that your rulings are going to play in the campaign trail.

2262
02:10:12,720 --> 02:10:16,720
Speaker 1: Sandrade O'Connor, I believe the last Supreme Court justice that

2263
02:10:16,760 --> 02:10:19,360
Speaker 1: ever ran that ever ran for office for anything, she

2264
02:10:19,480 --> 02:10:23,120
Speaker 1: ran for a state Senate seat in Arizona. I think

2265
02:10:23,240 --> 02:10:26,280
Speaker 1: that you know, what used to be fairly common for

2266
02:10:26,840 --> 02:10:32,280
Speaker 1: elected officials to get appointed to the Supreme Court, Bill Clinton,

2267
02:10:32,440 --> 02:10:34,920
Speaker 1: I think with semi serious in putting Mario Cuomo in

2268
02:10:35,000 --> 02:10:38,280
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, I think I don't. I think in

2269
02:10:38,840 --> 02:10:40,840
Speaker 1: my guess is Mario Cuomo wished to see had said yes,

2270
02:10:41,560 --> 02:10:44,120
Speaker 1: considering he said no, ran for re election and loss,

2271
02:10:44,160 --> 02:10:48,480
Speaker 1: but that would have been interesting. Bruce Babbitt was another

2272
02:10:48,520 --> 02:10:50,680
Speaker 1: one that he wanted to put there. The point is

2273
02:10:50,800 --> 02:10:53,320
Speaker 1: is that there's only so much you understand about how

2274
02:10:53,840 --> 02:10:58,560
Speaker 1: illegal ruling impacts their everyday lives of Americans. I think

2275
02:10:58,640 --> 02:11:01,880
Speaker 1: too many of these justices go from law school to

2276
02:11:02,040 --> 02:11:06,120
Speaker 1: a corporate you know, maybe law firm, maybe a clerkship,

2277
02:11:06,560 --> 02:11:10,160
Speaker 1: a judge's chambers, but they don't sort of interact with

2278
02:11:10,280 --> 02:11:15,240
Speaker 1: people as much. And I think having somebody on that

2279
02:11:16,480 --> 02:11:20,440
Speaker 1: court that has done that, I think would be I'd

2280
02:11:20,520 --> 02:11:22,320
Speaker 1: like more than just one person. But we don't even

2281
02:11:22,360 --> 02:11:26,000
Speaker 1: have one person on that and that's something that I

2282
02:11:26,080 --> 02:11:28,240
Speaker 1: think is missing. But I look at some of these

2283
02:11:28,280 --> 02:11:31,000
Speaker 1: elected officials, like I said, on the conservative side of

2284
02:11:31,000 --> 02:11:33,160
Speaker 1: the O, I think James Langford would make a fascinating

2285
02:11:33,640 --> 02:11:36,200
Speaker 1: Supreme Court. But I look for I'm looking for people

2286
02:11:36,240 --> 02:11:39,000
Speaker 1: who are intellects with a little bit of personal humility.

2287
02:11:39,040 --> 02:11:42,400
Speaker 1: So I want people like Jack Reid, Jim Langford, right,

2288
02:11:43,000 --> 02:11:45,760
Speaker 1: people like that, not the loud mouse. If you will,

2289
02:11:47,480 --> 02:11:49,560
Speaker 1: like you wouldn't, I don't think. I think Ted Cruz

2290
02:11:49,560 --> 02:11:52,200
Speaker 1: intellectually would be interesting on the Supreme Court, but I

2291
02:11:52,280 --> 02:11:54,520
Speaker 1: think he would feel I think he would hate the

2292
02:11:54,640 --> 02:11:57,800
Speaker 1: job because of his inability to speak out right. I

2293
02:11:57,840 --> 02:11:59,600
Speaker 1: think that used to bother Skille a little bit. I

2294
02:11:59,600 --> 02:12:01,480
Speaker 1: think to speak out more, I think it bothers so

2295
02:12:01,600 --> 02:12:03,720
Speaker 1: to my or, she strikes me as somebody that would

2296
02:12:04,200 --> 02:12:07,640
Speaker 1: love to be speaking out more, but feels that the

2297
02:12:07,760 --> 02:12:12,800
Speaker 1: pageantry of the office itself doesn't call for I'd love

2298
02:12:12,840 --> 02:12:14,840
Speaker 1: to do a little bit more on your question down

2299
02:12:14,880 --> 02:12:16,480
Speaker 1: the road. Maybe you can come back with me with

2300
02:12:16,760 --> 02:12:19,720
Speaker 1: a few more of the fantasy sort of fantasy football

2301
02:12:19,760 --> 02:12:23,000
Speaker 1: politics questions like that. All right, one last question and

2302
02:12:23,040 --> 02:12:25,920
Speaker 1: then we'll get to my college football round up. Long

2303
02:12:25,960 --> 02:12:27,640
Speaker 1: time listener here in your podcast always reminds me of

2304
02:12:27,680 --> 02:12:30,640
Speaker 1: how much I enjoyed political science classes. Well great In

2305
02:12:30,720 --> 02:12:33,160
Speaker 1: New Jersey, the party controlled county line was eliminated in

2306
02:12:33,200 --> 02:12:35,560
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four after a lawsuit by now Senator Andy Kim,

2307
02:12:36,760 --> 02:12:38,920
Speaker 1: aiming to reduce the influence of party bosses. Given the

2308
02:12:39,000 --> 02:12:41,080
Speaker 1: lack of an open Democratic primary in twenty twenty four,

2309
02:12:41,080 --> 02:12:42,840
Speaker 1: do you think this could mark the beginning of a

2310
02:12:42,880 --> 02:12:45,840
Speaker 1: broader shift towards fair, less party driven primary voting. Ghost

2311
02:12:45,840 --> 02:12:50,640
Speaker 1: Scarlett Knights, John Feldman, Well, John, I have a conversation

2312
02:12:50,760 --> 02:12:53,960
Speaker 1: coming up here with the a gentleman named Nick Troyano.

2313
02:12:54,080 --> 02:12:55,840
Speaker 1: It's not this Episode's coming up in the next couple

2314
02:12:55,880 --> 02:12:59,600
Speaker 1: of episodes, and he's working on essentially get he believes.

2315
02:12:59,640 --> 02:13:02,320
Speaker 1: He wrote a book called The Primary Problem, and he

2316
02:13:02,440 --> 02:13:05,160
Speaker 1: believes that partisan primaries are at the root or the

2317
02:13:05,280 --> 02:13:07,840
Speaker 1: root cause of our polarization. They're the root cause of

2318
02:13:07,920 --> 02:13:10,960
Speaker 1: our inability for Congress to get anything done, and that

2319
02:13:11,120 --> 02:13:14,520
Speaker 1: if we can eliminate the partisan primary in general, forget

2320
02:13:14,560 --> 02:13:17,760
Speaker 1: this counting line business and all this stuff, we would

2321
02:13:17,760 --> 02:13:21,160
Speaker 1: be in better shape. I can. I am very empathetic

2322
02:13:21,200 --> 02:13:23,320
Speaker 1: to this. I would love to get rid of partisan primaries.

2323
02:13:23,400 --> 02:13:26,160
Speaker 1: I would like all party primaries. I'd like to see

2324
02:13:26,160 --> 02:13:28,320
Speaker 1: that now I want to see I think parties should

2325
02:13:28,320 --> 02:13:33,000
Speaker 1: still identify themselves. But I think it's weird that the

2326
02:13:33,120 --> 02:13:35,840
Speaker 1: taxpayers pay for an election that the only way I

2327
02:13:35,880 --> 02:13:38,080
Speaker 1: can participate in that election in a certain in some

2328
02:13:38,240 --> 02:13:41,560
Speaker 1: states is to join some private organization that to me

2329
02:13:41,840 --> 02:13:44,200
Speaker 1: strikes me as a poll tax and a violation of

2330
02:13:44,240 --> 02:13:48,640
Speaker 1: equal protection. I'd like to see some better lawyering, if

2331
02:13:48,680 --> 02:13:50,680
Speaker 1: you will, on some of these issues when it comes

2332
02:13:50,720 --> 02:13:56,520
Speaker 1: to ballot access and these partisan primaries. But you know, given,

2333
02:13:57,120 --> 02:13:59,480
Speaker 1: I do think we're headed in that direction, and I

2334
02:13:59,560 --> 02:14:01,760
Speaker 1: think part of it is because millennials and gen z

2335
02:14:03,440 --> 02:14:06,440
Speaker 1: do not like these old institutions that are called the

2336
02:14:06,480 --> 02:14:10,000
Speaker 1: Republican Party and the Democratic Party. And so the more

2337
02:14:10,160 --> 02:14:15,200
Speaker 1: those two sort of carcasses, if you will, semi dead

2338
02:14:15,280 --> 02:14:17,080
Speaker 1: carcasses on the side of the road, the donkey and

2339
02:14:17,120 --> 02:14:19,920
Speaker 1: the elephant there, the more they fight these changes to

2340
02:14:20,040 --> 02:14:25,040
Speaker 1: the process, I think, the more you'll see growing support

2341
02:14:25,240 --> 02:14:28,360
Speaker 1: to sort of blow up the party, the power of

2342
02:14:28,440 --> 02:14:33,440
Speaker 1: the political parties wherever, wherever it still exists, like Alah,

2343
02:14:33,600 --> 02:14:44,280
Speaker 1: New Jersey. All right, So with that's let's talk some

2344
02:14:44,400 --> 02:14:50,640
Speaker 1: college football. Look, Minami got it. I think Miami deserved

2345
02:14:50,680 --> 02:14:54,200
Speaker 1: to be it. But this entire process was a mess.

2346
02:14:56,920 --> 02:15:00,720
Speaker 1: There's no doubt that there is there is it is

2347
02:15:00,840 --> 02:15:04,640
Speaker 1: not clear what this This whole committee is so subjective.

2348
02:15:05,040 --> 02:15:07,360
Speaker 1: The ridiculous TV show they put on every week, which

2349
02:15:07,440 --> 02:15:09,000
Speaker 1: is which creates content.

2350
02:15:10,080 --> 02:15:10,480
Speaker 3: I know.

2351
02:15:10,640 --> 02:15:13,480
Speaker 1: I'm in the content creation business myself. It's created plenty

2352
02:15:13,520 --> 02:15:15,920
Speaker 1: of content for me to be and moan about, right,

2353
02:15:17,640 --> 02:15:20,160
Speaker 1: But it misled a lot of schools, That misled a

2354
02:15:20,200 --> 02:15:22,280
Speaker 1: lot of coaches, and there's some anger there. I saw

2355
02:15:22,320 --> 02:15:25,640
Speaker 1: that the athletic director of Notre Dame is really angry.

2356
02:15:25,680 --> 02:15:27,840
Speaker 1: They've decided not to be in a bowl game over this.

2357
02:15:28,400 --> 02:15:31,040
Speaker 1: I wonder if cooler heads will prevail after they get

2358
02:15:31,080 --> 02:15:34,440
Speaker 1: a night's sleep. But we'll see. I'm tapping on Sunday evening,

2359
02:15:34,600 --> 02:15:37,000
Speaker 1: so that's why I say a night's sleep. If you

2360
02:15:37,080 --> 02:15:38,760
Speaker 1: tell me Notre Dame changes, it's mine in the next

2361
02:15:38,800 --> 02:15:42,200
Speaker 1: twenty four hours. It wouldn't surprise me because remember, Notre

2362
02:15:42,280 --> 02:15:43,920
Speaker 1: Dame gets to keep all that bowl money themselves. Are

2363
02:15:43,960 --> 02:15:45,640
Speaker 1: they really going to leave a couple million dollars on

2364
02:15:45,720 --> 02:15:48,440
Speaker 1: the table, even though you know a couple million pop tarts,

2365
02:15:48,760 --> 02:15:50,680
Speaker 1: right is what they'd be leaving on the table, because

2366
02:15:50,680 --> 02:15:52,200
Speaker 1: I guess it would have been Notre Dame in BYU

2367
02:15:52,240 --> 02:15:55,760
Speaker 1: and the pop Tarts Bowl. So I'll be you know,

2368
02:15:56,200 --> 02:15:58,720
Speaker 1: every dollar counts, right, every dollar matters. I know that's

2369
02:15:58,720 --> 02:16:01,680
Speaker 1: a wealthy school, but in the days of nil everybody's

2370
02:16:02,480 --> 02:16:05,760
Speaker 1: cash poor these days, so cooler heads could prevail there.

2371
02:16:07,080 --> 02:16:09,640
Speaker 1: But I understand their frustration. They were led to believe

2372
02:16:09,800 --> 02:16:11,960
Speaker 1: that that their metrics, you know, they were going to

2373
02:16:11,960 --> 02:16:16,000
Speaker 1: be kept ahead of Miami. But this consistently. The real

2374
02:16:16,080 --> 02:16:20,320
Speaker 1: outrage is how it's the bias that ESPN and this

2375
02:16:20,440 --> 02:16:24,080
Speaker 1: committee has with the SEC. Now, my brother in law,

2376
02:16:24,120 --> 02:16:28,640
Speaker 1: who's a big SEC fan, will say, it's not a bias.

2377
02:16:28,720 --> 02:16:30,919
Speaker 1: The SEC is the best. They should have an advantage,

2378
02:16:30,920 --> 02:16:34,520
Speaker 1: they should be able to call the shots. I have

2379
02:16:34,680 --> 02:16:36,879
Speaker 1: no doubt that the SEC is going to have more

2380
02:16:36,920 --> 02:16:39,640
Speaker 1: teams in the College Football Playoff this year than the

2381
02:16:39,720 --> 02:16:41,280
Speaker 1: Big Ten or the a SEC of the Big twelve.

2382
02:16:42,400 --> 02:16:45,520
Speaker 1: The problem is sort of this idea that a conference

2383
02:16:45,600 --> 02:16:47,560
Speaker 1: game in the SEC is hard, but a conference game

2384
02:16:47,600 --> 02:16:50,560
Speaker 1: anywhere else isn't. It's the sort of those lines of

2385
02:16:50,680 --> 02:16:55,080
Speaker 1: arrogance that trigger me on this conversation. Right, Oh my god,

2386
02:16:55,200 --> 02:16:57,920
Speaker 1: Alabama toughening it out in the Iron Bowl to a

2387
02:16:57,959 --> 02:17:00,960
Speaker 1: five and seven Auburn team. Well, Miami had to go

2388
02:17:01,040 --> 02:17:03,560
Speaker 1: to a thirty five year old, thirty five thirty five

2389
02:17:03,600 --> 02:17:07,879
Speaker 1: degree weather in Pittsburgh, something that's always very difficult for Miami.

2390
02:17:07,920 --> 02:17:09,640
Speaker 1: They go up there and open the can of you

2391
02:17:09,720 --> 02:17:13,960
Speaker 1: know what on the pitt Panthers. The point is, and

2392
02:17:14,360 --> 02:17:17,080
Speaker 1: wherever Miami goes on the road in the ACC, when

2393
02:17:17,080 --> 02:17:19,840
Speaker 1: they beat Miami, they storm the field. The point being

2394
02:17:20,000 --> 02:17:24,480
Speaker 1: is every conference road game for a big brand is difficult. Right.

2395
02:17:24,720 --> 02:17:26,680
Speaker 1: It was difficult when Notre Dame went to Louisville and

2396
02:17:26,760 --> 02:17:29,560
Speaker 1: Louisville beats them, and they storm the field for that, Right,

2397
02:17:30,200 --> 02:17:32,560
Speaker 1: that same thing happens to Alabama, right when they lose

2398
02:17:32,640 --> 02:17:34,880
Speaker 1: to one of their you know, to a Missouri or

2399
02:17:35,879 --> 02:17:39,560
Speaker 1: anybody other than really Georgia or LSU, there's a storming

2400
02:17:39,640 --> 02:17:43,600
Speaker 1: of the field, right. You know, you're to me, there's

2401
02:17:43,640 --> 02:17:46,240
Speaker 1: too much storming of the field. You know, you should

2402
02:17:46,280 --> 02:17:48,880
Speaker 1: preserve storming of the field for two things, winning a

2403
02:17:49,000 --> 02:17:52,560
Speaker 1: title and knocking off number one. Period, Like we should

2404
02:17:52,560 --> 02:17:54,840
Speaker 1: have a rule we will not find you if you

2405
02:17:55,000 --> 02:17:56,920
Speaker 1: storm the court or the field when you knock off

2406
02:17:56,959 --> 02:18:01,440
Speaker 1: number one in your home. Other than that, there's no

2407
02:18:01,560 --> 02:18:04,320
Speaker 1: more storming of the courts. I mean, I've seen, you know,

2408
02:18:04,360 --> 02:18:07,520
Speaker 1: when Miami was in its low period in the ACC,

2409
02:18:08,080 --> 02:18:10,520
Speaker 1: there would still be these like storming of the fields,

2410
02:18:10,560 --> 02:18:15,760
Speaker 1: and like you know Raleigh or Blacksburg or you know,

2411
02:18:16,000 --> 02:18:18,600
Speaker 1: like oh, we beat Miami. It's like, come on, we

2412
02:18:18,760 --> 02:18:24,920
Speaker 1: were down at the time. It's notable that every single

2413
02:18:25,040 --> 02:18:28,760
Speaker 1: team that lost a conference championship game dropped in the

2414
02:18:28,879 --> 02:18:33,800
Speaker 1: rankings except one, Alabama. What I don't get is Alabama

2415
02:18:33,879 --> 02:18:36,760
Speaker 1: played eight quarters of football against Georgia. They played well

2416
02:18:36,879 --> 02:18:39,200
Speaker 1: for the first quarter and a half of the first game,

2417
02:18:40,040 --> 02:18:42,560
Speaker 1: and then they survived that game and were able to

2418
02:18:42,640 --> 02:18:46,920
Speaker 1: eke out a win, and then they got pummeled and

2419
02:18:47,000 --> 02:18:48,600
Speaker 1: the next time they played them. To me, you got

2420
02:18:48,680 --> 02:18:51,680
Speaker 1: to look at all eight quarters. There was a pattern there, right.

2421
02:18:52,200 --> 02:18:55,400
Speaker 1: They figured it out, you know, they as soon as

2422
02:18:55,400 --> 02:18:57,640
Speaker 1: they figured out Alabama's game plan, they shut them down.

2423
02:18:58,640 --> 02:19:03,240
Speaker 1: And how did Alibabama pivot the next time they played Georgia?

2424
02:19:03,320 --> 02:19:06,440
Speaker 1: They didn't, and they and and then they lose two

2425
02:19:06,480 --> 02:19:10,120
Speaker 1: of their last four. They accumulated a third loss. And

2426
02:19:10,240 --> 02:19:14,320
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I don't see it as punishment that getting

2427
02:19:14,320 --> 02:19:16,720
Speaker 1: into the conference championship game and then losing. First of all,

2428
02:19:16,800 --> 02:19:19,600
Speaker 1: Alabama had one had an easy way to get into

2429
02:19:19,600 --> 02:19:22,600
Speaker 1: the playoff winning get in. That was not an option

2430
02:19:22,680 --> 02:19:24,520
Speaker 1: for Notre Dame, that was not an option for Miami.

2431
02:19:24,959 --> 02:19:28,320
Speaker 1: We can talk to the ACC and their ridiculous tiebreaker situations. Now,

2432
02:19:28,360 --> 02:19:31,199
Speaker 1: as for Notre Dame, I see that there's some reporting

2433
02:19:31,240 --> 02:19:36,200
Speaker 1: that indicates that that Notre Dame partisans think that this

2434
02:19:36,440 --> 02:19:38,760
Speaker 1: was the Committee sending a message to Notre Dame that hey,

2435
02:19:39,120 --> 02:19:41,760
Speaker 1: you're not a member of a conference, and look, uh,

2436
02:19:42,440 --> 02:19:45,000
Speaker 1: I don't think Notre dames wins over Navy and Pitt

2437
02:19:45,680 --> 02:19:49,080
Speaker 1: should should count as much as Miami's went over Pitt,

2438
02:19:49,560 --> 02:19:52,200
Speaker 1: simply because Pitt said it wasn't taking that game as

2439
02:19:52,240 --> 02:19:55,080
Speaker 1: seriously against Notre Dame because it didn't count. Navy said

2440
02:19:55,080 --> 02:19:57,320
Speaker 1: the same thing, because it didn't count. They were fighting

2441
02:19:57,360 --> 02:20:00,280
Speaker 1: for a potential spot in the in the AAC Conference

2442
02:20:00,360 --> 02:20:03,000
Speaker 1: Championship Game, or don't call me the AAC, the American

2443
02:20:03,040 --> 02:20:07,160
Speaker 1: Conference Championship Game. So I do think the resentment of

2444
02:20:07,240 --> 02:20:09,240
Speaker 1: them not being a conference, them not having a face

2445
02:20:09,280 --> 02:20:13,120
Speaker 1: a very tough schedule, was part of this, and at

2446
02:20:13,200 --> 02:20:14,760
Speaker 1: some point they were going to send a message. As

2447
02:20:14,840 --> 02:20:17,080
Speaker 1: much as I think that committee hates the ACC, I

2448
02:20:17,120 --> 02:20:19,120
Speaker 1: think they hate Notre Dame in the special treatment that

2449
02:20:19,160 --> 02:20:21,359
Speaker 1: they get more and in fact we end up discovering

2450
02:20:21,400 --> 02:20:26,880
Speaker 1: Notre Dames. Now we've got to guarantee going forward if

2451
02:20:26,959 --> 02:20:29,080
Speaker 1: they are in the top twelve no matter what number

2452
02:20:29,120 --> 02:20:31,160
Speaker 1: they are. But if they're ranked in the top twelve

2453
02:20:32,640 --> 02:20:34,680
Speaker 1: in a twelve team playoff, they get into the playoff

2454
02:20:34,720 --> 02:20:37,600
Speaker 1: no matter what. They have to automatically get in. Apparently

2455
02:20:37,600 --> 02:20:41,000
Speaker 1: they signed some memo understanding with the CFP. Are you

2456
02:20:41,400 --> 02:20:45,720
Speaker 1: fing kidding me? They have their own legal side deal

2457
02:20:46,040 --> 02:20:49,400
Speaker 1: to guarantee participation in the College Football Playoff in a

2458
02:20:49,440 --> 02:20:53,800
Speaker 1: way that no other conference has. Come On, Notre Dame,

2459
02:20:53,840 --> 02:20:57,080
Speaker 1: come join a conference, Come join the ACC. You'll still dominate,

2460
02:20:57,280 --> 02:20:59,560
Speaker 1: and you literally will get into the College Football Playoff

2461
02:20:59,600 --> 02:21:02,800
Speaker 1: every year. The extra gab will help you. You still

2462
02:21:02,800 --> 02:21:06,920
Speaker 1: get to play Stanford every year. It's a conference game. Okay, Yes,

2463
02:21:07,000 --> 02:21:09,400
Speaker 1: you're gonna be stuck playing Miami once in a while.

2464
02:21:09,600 --> 02:21:13,520
Speaker 1: That's good, not bad for both schools. The fact of

2465
02:21:13,560 --> 02:21:16,039
Speaker 1: the matter is the last time Notre Dame was truly

2466
02:21:16,080 --> 02:21:19,320
Speaker 1: a power was when Miami was truly a power. Mimi,

2467
02:21:19,440 --> 02:21:22,320
Speaker 1: Notre Dame are good for each other, and they ought to.

2468
02:21:22,640 --> 02:21:25,680
Speaker 1: If I were Notre Dame, I'd embrace that. Come on in. Look,

2469
02:21:25,800 --> 02:21:28,400
Speaker 1: I don't love the AEC myself. I think that the

2470
02:21:28,680 --> 02:21:34,040
Speaker 1: leadership here they dodged a bullet. Do I think I

2471
02:21:34,200 --> 02:21:38,360
Speaker 1: know that the the chair of this committee, the temporary

2472
02:21:38,400 --> 02:21:40,880
Speaker 1: chair of this committee, the Arkansas d said that the

2473
02:21:41,760 --> 02:21:44,080
Speaker 1: fact that the AEC could have been shut out was

2474
02:21:44,160 --> 02:21:47,680
Speaker 1: not a factor in putting Miami over Notre Dame. I

2475
02:21:47,760 --> 02:21:49,760
Speaker 1: think it was an intangible I'm not going to be

2476
02:21:49,840 --> 02:21:53,119
Speaker 1: that naive I think they I think if I were

2477
02:21:53,200 --> 02:21:56,000
Speaker 1: the CFP, i'd be worried about lawsuits. And if you're

2478
02:21:56,040 --> 02:21:58,280
Speaker 1: wondering why the group of five gets this slot and

2479
02:21:58,360 --> 02:22:00,879
Speaker 1: why they've worded it the way they did, why it's

2480
02:22:00,959 --> 02:22:04,320
Speaker 1: top five conference champions that they don't specify which conferences

2481
02:22:04,640 --> 02:22:07,119
Speaker 1: because they don't want an anti trust lawsuit. They don't

2482
02:22:07,160 --> 02:22:10,519
Speaker 1: want a lawsuit coming from the non Power four conferences,

2483
02:22:11,000 --> 02:22:13,760
Speaker 1: and so that's called lawsuit prevention. They're like, no, no, no, no,

2484
02:22:13,920 --> 02:22:17,640
Speaker 1: We'll provide you a path to the playoff, and this

2485
02:22:17,840 --> 02:22:19,840
Speaker 1: is the path that they created. Is there a better

2486
02:22:19,840 --> 02:22:21,959
Speaker 1: way to do this? My god, there's probably seventy five

2487
02:22:22,120 --> 02:22:26,240
Speaker 1: thousand better ways to do this. I could. You know.

2488
02:22:27,000 --> 02:22:28,680
Speaker 1: There's a part of me that says, go to an

2489
02:22:28,760 --> 02:22:32,920
Speaker 1: eighteen playoff, but let the power Let the Power four

2490
02:22:33,040 --> 02:22:37,039
Speaker 1: conferences run their own four team tournaments. Have the group

2491
02:22:37,080 --> 02:22:40,360
Speaker 1: of five have their own the top four champions play

2492
02:22:40,440 --> 02:22:42,880
Speaker 1: and you know you get one representative there, but it's

2493
02:22:42,959 --> 02:22:45,520
Speaker 1: kind of you play your way in, and you know

2494
02:22:45,640 --> 02:22:49,480
Speaker 1: the Power four conferences, you play your way in, and

2495
02:22:49,600 --> 02:22:52,320
Speaker 1: you just do this as playing your way in. You've

2496
02:22:52,440 --> 02:22:55,000
Speaker 1: got to take the human beings out of this. You've

2497
02:22:55,040 --> 02:22:57,879
Speaker 1: got to take ESPN executives out of this. You've got

2498
02:22:57,920 --> 02:23:00,440
Speaker 1: to take athletic directors out of this. You've got to

2499
02:23:00,480 --> 02:23:05,400
Speaker 1: take conference folks out of this. Is it is fraud.

2500
02:23:06,160 --> 02:23:09,280
Speaker 1: There's too much money at stake and lawsuits glory coming,

2501
02:23:09,360 --> 02:23:13,000
Speaker 1: and you know it'll come congressional. You're gonna have federal intervention,

2502
02:23:13,160 --> 02:23:17,959
Speaker 1: and maybe there should be. But this is this committee

2503
02:23:18,040 --> 02:23:21,160
Speaker 1: as it's structured. Now, you've got to get the human

2504
02:23:21,280 --> 02:23:24,760
Speaker 1: element out of this. There is no committee to decide

2505
02:23:24,760 --> 02:23:27,120
Speaker 1: who makes the NFL playoffs. There's no committee who decides

2506
02:23:27,120 --> 02:23:29,560
Speaker 1: who makes the MLB playoffs. There's no committee who decides

2507
02:23:29,560 --> 02:23:33,280
Speaker 1: who makes the NBA playoffs. There's no Yes, there's a

2508
02:23:33,320 --> 02:23:37,080
Speaker 1: committee who decides the seating and the last sort of

2509
02:23:37,280 --> 02:23:40,920
Speaker 1: couple of teams in a sixty eight soon to be

2510
02:23:41,120 --> 02:23:44,280
Speaker 1: seventy six team thing. If you want to, you know,

2511
02:23:45,440 --> 02:23:49,600
Speaker 1: I'm fine for a committee to decide seating. But I'm

2512
02:23:49,680 --> 02:23:51,760
Speaker 1: not fine for a committee to decide who gets in

2513
02:23:51,840 --> 02:23:55,680
Speaker 1: and who gets out. I will I have plenty of

2514
02:23:55,760 --> 02:23:59,160
Speaker 1: complaints about how ESPN is a terrible business partner for

2515
02:23:59,200 --> 02:24:01,879
Speaker 1: the ACC. I still think all of the issues at

2516
02:24:01,920 --> 02:24:04,760
Speaker 1: the ACC. They dodged a bullet here. This would have

2517
02:24:04,840 --> 02:24:08,520
Speaker 1: cost millions of dollars for everybody across the board without

2518
02:24:08,560 --> 02:24:12,520
Speaker 1: getting any piece of the CFP PI. The leadership of

2519
02:24:12,520 --> 02:24:15,279
Speaker 1: the ACEC still needs to be held account and university

2520
02:24:15,320 --> 02:24:18,200
Speaker 1: presence in the ACC. Those that are serious about spending

2521
02:24:18,240 --> 02:24:20,320
Speaker 1: all this money in football need to have a come

2522
02:24:20,400 --> 02:24:23,320
Speaker 1: to you know what meeting about the leadership of the ACEC.

2523
02:24:23,480 --> 02:24:29,480
Speaker 1: Because this was a debacle. They dodged a catastrophe, okay,

2524
02:24:29,640 --> 02:24:32,560
Speaker 1: thanks to their own the other politics that sort of

2525
02:24:32,920 --> 02:24:36,800
Speaker 1: were all over the map with this committee, but was

2526
02:24:37,400 --> 02:24:41,680
Speaker 1: There's so many there's like seventeen thousand other ways to

2527
02:24:41,760 --> 02:24:45,320
Speaker 1: do this, and yet they chose this way to do this, right,

2528
02:24:48,320 --> 02:24:51,160
Speaker 1: I'd like to see Notre dame men. I honestly, I

2529
02:24:51,200 --> 02:24:53,320
Speaker 1: think it's Oklahoma that doesn't belong if you were to

2530
02:24:53,320 --> 02:24:56,240
Speaker 1: ask me which one of these teams doesn't belong Oklahoma.

2531
02:24:56,520 --> 02:24:59,280
Speaker 1: But this is because of the stupid weekly rate rankings

2532
02:24:59,440 --> 02:25:02,600
Speaker 1: show they came out and after Oklahoma beat Alabama, they

2533
02:25:02,680 --> 02:25:05,800
Speaker 1: did this, But if you looked at Oklahoma's body of work,

2534
02:25:06,640 --> 02:25:08,680
Speaker 1: I don't think you'd have Oklahoma in this in this

2535
02:25:08,800 --> 02:25:12,080
Speaker 1: I think they'd have been left out certainly, would you know, Yes,

2536
02:25:12,200 --> 02:25:14,880
Speaker 1: they've got the Alabama win. But that Alabama win is

2537
02:25:15,000 --> 02:25:18,680
Speaker 1: I think way overvalued. And if you look at Alabama's

2538
02:25:18,720 --> 02:25:23,320
Speaker 1: body of work, it's not the most impressive team. And

2539
02:25:23,440 --> 02:25:25,480
Speaker 1: then what do they do for Alabama? They hand them

2540
02:25:25,640 --> 02:25:29,120
Speaker 1: the rematch with Oklahoma and Norman. I'm sorry, what a

2541
02:25:29,280 --> 02:25:34,360
Speaker 1: ridiculous gift. Now, let's quickly talk about the bracket. I'm

2542
02:25:34,360 --> 02:25:37,360
Speaker 1: gonna be parochial here and talk about Miami's path. Uh,

2543
02:25:37,640 --> 02:25:44,680
Speaker 1: it's let's just say Miami's got the Miami. This is

2544
02:25:44,800 --> 02:25:47,280
Speaker 1: the way, you know, you talk to old school Miami

2545
02:25:47,480 --> 02:25:50,640
Speaker 1: football players. I'm friends with a few of them, or

2546
02:25:50,959 --> 02:25:52,880
Speaker 1: you know, sort of acquaintances with a few of them.

2547
02:25:52,920 --> 02:25:56,720
Speaker 1: Let me let me not oversell it. And they would say, hey,

2548
02:25:56,760 --> 02:25:59,640
Speaker 1: if you're gonna you know, be tested, be tested all

2549
02:25:59,680 --> 02:26:02,400
Speaker 1: the way, tested by the best. Right, So they started

2550
02:26:02,480 --> 02:26:05,120
Speaker 1: Texas A and M and if they win that, they

2551
02:26:05,160 --> 02:26:07,560
Speaker 1: get to play Ohio State and the Cotton Bowl, and

2552
02:26:07,680 --> 02:26:12,400
Speaker 1: if they win that, they likely play the winner of

2553
02:26:12,440 --> 02:26:15,240
Speaker 1: Georgia and Ole Miss, with the assumption being that Old

2554
02:26:15,240 --> 02:26:18,560
Speaker 1: Miss is going to play too Lane. So in theory,

2555
02:26:19,000 --> 02:26:21,840
Speaker 1: Miami's path to a national championship game, which is would

2556
02:26:21,879 --> 02:26:24,120
Speaker 1: be in their home stadium by the way, it's at

2557
02:26:24,160 --> 02:26:27,240
Speaker 1: hard Rock, would be in their home stadium. It would

2558
02:26:27,280 --> 02:26:30,200
Speaker 1: begin in College Station with Texas A and M. Then

2559
02:26:30,240 --> 02:26:33,280
Speaker 1: it's Ohio State on December thirty first, then it would

2560
02:26:33,320 --> 02:26:37,160
Speaker 1: be Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl. Miami is oh for

2561
02:26:37,240 --> 02:26:40,200
Speaker 1: the State of Arizona. So once we get there, I'm

2562
02:26:40,240 --> 02:26:44,440
Speaker 1: going to be really skeptical of our chances just because

2563
02:26:44,480 --> 02:26:46,800
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, we're OH. Like I said, we're O

2564
02:26:46,959 --> 02:26:50,240
Speaker 1: for the State of Arizona. But the reward if we

2565
02:26:50,320 --> 02:26:54,840
Speaker 1: survive that would be a national title game against either

2566
02:26:54,879 --> 02:26:57,119
Speaker 1: Indian or a Texas Tech. I would say this, man,

2567
02:26:59,320 --> 02:27:02,240
Speaker 1: you look at the various paths. I think both Ohio

2568
02:27:02,400 --> 02:27:06,000
Speaker 1: State and Georgia are jealous of Indiana and Texas Tech.

2569
02:27:06,240 --> 02:27:09,360
Speaker 1: I think I think Texas Tech. Boy, did they get

2570
02:27:09,400 --> 02:27:12,760
Speaker 1: a break? I'm not. I don't get a look. Oregon's

2571
02:27:12,800 --> 02:27:14,840
Speaker 1: got a good record and they're in a good conference.

2572
02:27:16,200 --> 02:27:18,879
Speaker 1: I don't buy it, and then they get the easy

2573
02:27:18,920 --> 02:27:24,200
Speaker 1: game against James Madison. I think this is one it'll

2574
02:27:24,240 --> 02:27:28,000
Speaker 1: be interesting if But I love Texas Tech. Here I

2575
02:27:28,120 --> 02:27:30,360
Speaker 1: may or may not have taken a future in Texas Tech.

2576
02:27:30,640 --> 02:27:34,280
Speaker 1: I think they are totally undervalued going through this. But

2577
02:27:34,840 --> 02:27:38,360
Speaker 1: you gotta love the Texas Tech path for as tough

2578
02:27:38,400 --> 02:27:41,400
Speaker 1: as the path is for Georgia and Ohio State, I think,

2579
02:27:42,480 --> 02:27:44,560
Speaker 1: I mean, even Indiana didn't get the greatest path they

2580
02:27:44,600 --> 02:27:48,880
Speaker 1: have to. They're going to get Alabama. Although if I'm

2581
02:27:48,959 --> 02:27:53,520
Speaker 1: right about Alabama, then maybe Indiana's getting a catching a break.

2582
02:27:54,640 --> 02:27:59,480
Speaker 1: But it is a the path for Georgia, Ohio State, yes,

2583
02:27:59,600 --> 02:28:03,960
Speaker 1: Miami me in Texas, A and m that feels like

2584
02:28:04,160 --> 02:28:09,720
Speaker 1: the brutal side of this bracket. Indiana, Texas Tech a

2585
02:28:10,000 --> 02:28:13,320
Speaker 1: little a little less where you get sort of a

2586
02:28:13,400 --> 02:28:16,000
Speaker 1: one dimensional Oklahoma team if you end up having to

2587
02:28:16,040 --> 02:28:19,160
Speaker 1: play them, an Alabama team that just doesn't strike any

2588
02:28:19,200 --> 02:28:22,560
Speaker 1: fear into anybody, and an Oregon team that does seems

2589
02:28:22,600 --> 02:28:27,160
Speaker 1: a little bit softer. It just doesn't. I can't put

2590
02:28:27,240 --> 02:28:30,039
Speaker 1: my finger on it, but there's doesn't quite Maybe I'm wrong.

2591
02:28:30,840 --> 02:28:32,800
Speaker 1: Never mind, And by the way, one of the stats

2592
02:28:32,840 --> 02:28:35,200
Speaker 1: that blew me away. It's apparently half of the college

2593
02:28:35,200 --> 02:28:39,240
Speaker 1: football playoff teams have some have a coach either leaving,

2594
02:28:39,600 --> 02:28:42,960
Speaker 1: either a head coach leaving or a coordinator leaving. That's astonishing.

2595
02:28:43,160 --> 02:28:46,560
Speaker 1: That's going to have an impact. So hopefully that's another

2596
02:28:46,640 --> 02:28:48,320
Speaker 1: thing that needs to happen here. Do they need to

2597
02:28:48,520 --> 02:28:51,600
Speaker 1: fix this calendar if you will, sort of do what

2598
02:28:51,680 --> 02:28:55,480
Speaker 1: the NFL does, try to not allow coaching change, you know,

2599
02:28:55,760 --> 02:28:59,240
Speaker 1: try to create some gap between the playoff and coaching changes,

2600
02:28:59,320 --> 02:29:03,560
Speaker 1: because this is uh, this, this part of it is

2601
02:29:03,600 --> 02:29:05,880
Speaker 1: also kind of messy as well, and that's why you

2602
02:29:05,959 --> 02:29:09,120
Speaker 1: gotta look. I think Miami's not gonna Miami has very

2603
02:29:09,200 --> 02:29:11,360
Speaker 1: few changes in their coaching staff, so I feel pretty

2604
02:29:11,400 --> 02:29:13,440
Speaker 1: good about that. I think Texas A and M has

2605
02:29:13,560 --> 02:29:16,320
Speaker 1: very few changes. Did it with Georgia. But Ohio State,

2606
02:29:16,600 --> 02:29:20,480
Speaker 1: I think they're losing an offensive coordinator to USF ole Miss,

2607
02:29:20,600 --> 02:29:24,360
Speaker 1: you know, the ole Miss situation. So it's going to

2608
02:29:24,440 --> 02:29:31,120
Speaker 1: be after all this drama. I'm excited that that Miami

2609
02:29:31,320 --> 02:29:34,840
Speaker 1: if they if they whatever, however far they go, they'll

2610
02:29:34,879 --> 02:29:37,800
Speaker 1: have had to earn it. Right. They do not have

2611
02:29:38,000 --> 02:29:41,280
Speaker 1: a soft path to the national title game, but hey,

2612
02:29:41,800 --> 02:29:45,880
Speaker 1: just four more games, guys, four more games. Look, I

2613
02:29:46,240 --> 02:29:48,400
Speaker 1: think Miami will be competitive in every game they're in.

2614
02:29:49,240 --> 02:29:50,840
Speaker 1: They will have a chance in the fourth quarter will

2615
02:29:50,840 --> 02:29:53,880
Speaker 1: win the game. The real question is what kind of

2616
02:29:53,959 --> 02:29:57,320
Speaker 1: fourth quarter decision making is going to be made by

2617
02:29:57,360 --> 02:30:00,160
Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson, by the head coach Rio

2618
02:30:00,280 --> 02:30:03,720
Speaker 1: Crystal Paul, and by the quarterback Carson Beck. If there

2619
02:30:03,800 --> 02:30:06,640
Speaker 1: is a question mark about Miami, it is going to

2620
02:30:06,720 --> 02:30:09,360
Speaker 1: be their decision making when a game is on the line,

2621
02:30:09,440 --> 02:30:13,040
Speaker 1: all three of those gentlemen. So that they Miami goes

2622
02:30:13,080 --> 02:30:18,640
Speaker 1: as far as their ability to make key decisions, timely

2623
02:30:18,760 --> 02:30:26,440
Speaker 1: decisions in the fourth quarter. I'm looking forward to my

2624
02:30:26,480 --> 02:30:29,360
Speaker 1: first trip to College Station. Yes, I'm figuring this out.

2625
02:30:30,240 --> 02:30:33,000
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it. I've been wanting an excuse

2626
02:30:33,080 --> 02:30:35,480
Speaker 1: to get the Bush forty ones library as well. So

2627
02:30:35,600 --> 02:30:38,720
Speaker 1: it's a two for a political and sports junkie, right,

2628
02:30:38,840 --> 02:30:42,120
Speaker 1: I get to go see the field that hosts the

2629
02:30:42,200 --> 02:30:46,320
Speaker 1: so called twelfth Man. Sorry, Seattle, I think Texas, A

2630
02:30:46,400 --> 02:30:49,280
Speaker 1: and M did it first. The Bush forty one library

2631
02:30:49,360 --> 02:30:53,400
Speaker 1: down there is a nice little consolation prize too with

2632
02:30:53,560 --> 02:30:57,240
Speaker 1: our visit. All right, with that, I will continue my

2633
02:30:57,320 --> 02:30:59,800
Speaker 1: little sports updates. I promise you we got more college

2634
02:30:59,800 --> 02:31:03,879
Speaker 1: for that'll be fun. I'll start to turn my focus

2635
02:31:03,959 --> 02:31:06,920
Speaker 1: to my packers. That could start a knowing some of you,

2636
02:31:07,160 --> 02:31:10,760
Speaker 1: especially if you're Bears fans or Cowboys fans. But we'll see.

2637
02:31:13,680 --> 02:31:16,840
Speaker 1: And I'm weirdly really happy about a tiny little trade

2638
02:31:16,840 --> 02:31:20,120
Speaker 1: that the Nats did for a prospect catcher who I

2639
02:31:20,280 --> 02:31:25,119
Speaker 1: think is a really good prospect, a guy named Harry Ford.

2640
02:31:25,240 --> 02:31:27,680
Speaker 1: So I might even sneak a little bit of a

2641
02:31:27,800 --> 02:31:30,400
Speaker 1: hot stovely into some of these sports updates. So with that,

2642
02:31:33,040 --> 02:31:35,400
Speaker 1: I'll see it forty eight hours. Thanks for listening, and

2643
02:31:35,480 --> 02:31:36,400
Speaker 1: until I upload again