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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Edward, your Denny needs no introduction.

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Speaker 3: He is clearly one of the most philosophical and acute

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Speaker 3: bulls out there. He speaks of the Roaring twenties and

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Speaker 3: has been dead and we're thrilled to doctor Yodnny could

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Speaker 3: join us for an extended conversation this morning. John Murphy,

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Speaker 3: the giant of technical analysis, and a guy named Ed

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Speaker 3: Hymen all agree like you that you have to meld

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Speaker 3: things together. Talk to our audience that has missed the

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Speaker 3: Yard Denny bullmarket of how you use economics to have

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Speaker 3: the confidence to invest.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think, first and foremost, you have to start

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Speaker 4: with the data. I think a lot of economists and

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Speaker 4: strategists sometimes start out with the conclusion of how they

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Speaker 4: think things would fold, and then look for the data

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Speaker 4: that will support it, especially the economists who tend to

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Speaker 4: be on the pessimistic side about the US economy.

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Speaker 5: I think the important thing is to be observant.

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Speaker 4: And I've observed over the past three years that we've

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Speaker 4: had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that

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Speaker 4: never happened.

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Speaker 5: It was a no show.

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Speaker 4: And I think even now people aren't. It's kind of

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Speaker 4: like Rodney Dangerfield. They're not giving the economy enough respect.

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Speaker 5: It's amazingly resientied.

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Speaker 3: And that's what percentage of the audience doesn't know who

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Speaker 3: Rodney danger Fields, Right, you're taking himself un He was

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Speaker 3: in Caddyshack. Believe it that Jar Denny, the economist James Kimmel,

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Speaker 3: Jimmy Kimmel was going after Lawrence Cuddle over at Fox

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Speaker 3: Biz last night. You and I i'mber Larry Cuddler at

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Speaker 3: Paarsterns years ago, emphasizing the nominal statistic. Tell us what

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Speaker 3: you glean right now from nominal GDP the idea of

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Speaker 3: our real growth plus a very volatile inflation overlay.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think right now, you know, like when you

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Speaker 4: go over to Grandma's house and it's a long drive

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Speaker 4: and the kids are in the back asking are we

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Speaker 4: there yet?

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Speaker 5: I think we're there.

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Speaker 4: In terms of the so called nirvana norm for the economy,

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Speaker 4: the dual mandate has been accomplished. We've got the unemployment

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Speaker 4: rate at four percent, we've got real GDP rising up

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Speaker 4: around three percent, and we got the inflation rate not

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Speaker 4: quite a two percent, but somewhere around two and a

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Speaker 4: half to three percent. And so the Fed has accomplished

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Speaker 4: what it wants to do, which leads me to conclude

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Speaker 4: that there's really no reason for the Fed to lower

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Speaker 4: interest rates anymore. Indeed, I don't really think that there

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Speaker 4: was much reason for them to lowered by one hundred

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Speaker 4: basis points. And my friend, the friends the bond Vigelian,

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Speaker 4: you seem to agree with me, because the BONDI rows

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Speaker 4: one hundred basis points is the FED lowered the FED

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Speaker 4: funds rate by one hundred basis points.

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Speaker 6: So, ed, we did get that a little bit hotter

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Speaker 6: than expected CPI inflation data a couple of days ago.

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Speaker 6: Did that alter your view of maybe how this FED

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Speaker 6: should proceed?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, the way sometimes the way I look

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Speaker 4: at these numbers is when they support my story, they're good.

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Speaker 4: When they don't support my story, they're bad, or they're

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Speaker 4: going to be revised. And I don't know that the

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Speaker 4: CPI is going to be revised. But I think there

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Speaker 4: are some funky things that happen at the beginning of

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Speaker 4: the year. A lot of companies raise their prices. I

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Speaker 4: know the data seasonally adjusted, but I'm not troubled by

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Speaker 4: the inflation outlook. I think the important issue is productivity

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Speaker 4: and unit labor costs as a result of that, and

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Speaker 4: the productivity outlook has been productivity has been strong. I

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Speaker 4: think it's going to get stronger and that's going to

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Speaker 4: keep a lid on inflation.

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Speaker 6: So what what's your view just in terms of taking

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Speaker 6: risk here, ed we think about stocks, bonds, alternatives, Where

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Speaker 6: do you see opportunities here given that economic backdrop, given

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Speaker 6: that fedback drop.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, we've been bullish on the stock market

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Speaker 4: since October of twenty twenty two, and there are a

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Speaker 4: lot of opportunities back then, and now things are obviously

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Speaker 4: much more expensive. I think from here on, I think

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Speaker 4: maybe it's more like I hope that the rally in

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Speaker 4: stocks continues based on earnings rather than valuation. If it

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Speaker 4: keeps going up on valuation, we're faced with sort of

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Speaker 4: like a nineteen nineties model of the stock market melting

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Speaker 4: up and then melting down.

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Speaker 5: But you know, that could just be a buying opportunity.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't have to be a long term bear market,

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Speaker 4: and I don't think it would be.

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Speaker 3: Off the yard any over twenty two and good morning

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Speaker 3: to the great technician Ralphia and Campora, Ralpha and Kompora

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Speaker 3: who said the same thing. Up twenty one percent annualized

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Speaker 3: since the your Denny call of October of two thousand

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Speaker 3: and twenty two.

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Speaker 2: We're on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast, growing each and every day, learning

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Speaker 3: as much as I can about this digital madness. Good

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Speaker 3: morning to all of you outside America on YouTube. Just

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Speaker 3: humbled by the international reach A special good morning today

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Speaker 3: to ninety two nine FM Paul.

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Speaker 2: I got to do this right now.

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Speaker 3: It is the tweet of the day, fred Lynn Red

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Speaker 3: Sox saying that Bregman of the Houston Astros coming to

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Speaker 3: the Red Sox reminds him of Rico Petrocelli.

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Speaker 2: That's almost as important as the next question to Ed yard.

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Speaker 6: Denning exactly so, Ed, we think about this equity market,

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Speaker 6: and I guess that the FED is going to be

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Speaker 6: more or less on the sidelines, maybe give us one

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Speaker 6: or two cuts. Earnings have to be front and center. Yes,

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Speaker 6: what's your view of this? Earning power of this market

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Speaker 6: right here.

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Speaker 5: I think the power is there.

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Speaker 4: For the past three years, because we didn't think there

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Speaker 4: would be an economy wide recession, we were among the

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Speaker 4: highest forecasters for earnings, and indeed for this year, I

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Speaker 4: think we're at the top with two hundred and eighty

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Speaker 4: five dollars a share for the S and P five hundred,

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Speaker 4: and then next year three hundred and twenty dollars a share,

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Speaker 4: and then by twenty twenty nine four hundred dollars a year.

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Speaker 4: So those kind of numbers at the current valuations can

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Speaker 4: get us to seven thousand this year, eight thousand next

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Speaker 4: year on the S and P five hundred and ten

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Speaker 4: thousand by twenty twenty nine. So it's I think it's

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Speaker 4: going to be earnings driven, and it's going to be

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Speaker 4: a technology driven and productivity driven.

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Speaker 3: And if we get a boom like that, and you're

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Speaker 3: pretty lonely on that, I mean, the character of going

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Speaker 3: out to twenty twenty seven, eight and nine is a

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Speaker 3: lonely stance right now.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people's long term is one year.

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Speaker 3: And if we get this ed Yard Denny, do business

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Speaker 3: practices get sloppy. I had a wonderful talk once with

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Speaker 3: Robert crandall the giant of American airlines. Do people get

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Speaker 3: goofy and misspend capex et cetera, et cetera as we

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Speaker 3: go up the yard Denny Bull Market, Well, that's the

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Speaker 3: beauty of American capitalism, right.

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Speaker 4: There's a tremendous amount of money available for venture capital

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Speaker 4: for startups, and it's kind of like throwing spaghetti on

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Speaker 4: the wall. And I think a lot of these venture

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Speaker 4: funds that's exactly what they do. They invest in a

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Speaker 4: lot of these startups. They provide the capital they need

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Speaker 4: to come up with their innovations, and some succeed, some fail.

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Speaker 4: We always hear about the ones that succeed. We never

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Speaker 4: hear about the ones that fail. But that's the nature of.

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Speaker 5: You know, the the that's the nature of capitalism.

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Speaker 3: Can tariffs, reciprocal tariffs trump economics can derail the Ardny

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Speaker 3: Bull market?

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Speaker 4: Well, you know a lot of people think so. But

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Speaker 4: I'm very happy that they're using the word reciprocal rather

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Speaker 4: than retaliatory. Retaliatory is what the Smooth Holly tariff was.

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Speaker 4: In June of nineteen thirty, we raised our tariffs without

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Speaker 4: any concerns about the impact in other countries and other

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Speaker 4: countries retaliated, and we had a world depression. And then

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Speaker 4: to get out of that, we passed the Congress passed

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Speaker 4: the Reciprocal Tariff Act, which basically the basic theme of

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Speaker 4: that was, please take this power out of our hands.

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Speaker 4: We're too dangerous with tariffs. Let the president do it. Well,

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Speaker 4: you know, the president's doing it again right now. And

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Speaker 4: I think the fact that they're calling it reciprocal, and

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Speaker 4: the President said it yesterday said look, we're just going

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Speaker 4: to be fair and we're going to match their tariffs

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Speaker 4: and if they want to talk about it to lower it,

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Speaker 4: we'll do that. So I think this is all going

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Speaker 4: to lead to lower tariffs, not higher tariffs, when all

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Speaker 4: of a sudden.

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Speaker 5: Done, and it could be pretty quick.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you see how more leaders are coming to

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Speaker 4: the White House to say, let's talk about these things

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Speaker 4: before you slap them on.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, let's switch gears a little bit to the fixed

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Speaker 6: income space here. Where do you see opportunities? I mean,

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Speaker 6: you know a lot of folks that can be pretty

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Speaker 6: happy with a two year treasury at four point three percent.

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Speaker 6: Is that kind of where they should be or should

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Speaker 6: they take some credit risk?

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Speaker 2: How do you think that fixed.

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Speaker 4: That's yeah, that's our view is that the ten years

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Speaker 4: should be four and a half percent plus minus twenty

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Speaker 4: five basis points.

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Speaker 5: As you mentioned.

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Speaker 4: Before, that's normal and it's normal, and since it's where

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Speaker 4: bond yields were before the Great Financial Crisis, before the

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Speaker 4: Central Bank started to rig manipulate the bond yield and

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Speaker 4: bring it close to zero, I think it's great that

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Speaker 4: the US economy is demonstrated that it can live with

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Speaker 4: these interest rates because they're fair. They're fair to investors

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Speaker 4: who don't want to take a lot of risk and

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Speaker 4: want to have something that's safe but getting a decent return.

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Speaker 4: So I think the opportunity from the bond market they're

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Speaker 4: probably in the corporate area, because corporations run their their

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Speaker 4: finances better than the US government, as the Dose Committee

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Speaker 4: has demonstrated.

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Speaker 2: Edgiar Denny.

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Speaker 3: Next week, folks, and this is anticipated around Robert Shiftman's schedule,

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Speaker 3: we are going to have Robert Schiffman of Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 3: in for an extended conversation on the lack of debt

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Speaker 3: of the mag seven I.

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Speaker 2: Mean, Edgiar Denny. You know, forget about Madigliani and the rest.

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Speaker 3: The bottom line here is there is ample room to

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Speaker 3: use debt for whatever cap.

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Speaker 2: X or to diminish equity.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we can issue a lot of debt out

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Speaker 3: there in this American juggernaut economy, can't we.

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Speaker 4: Well, the US government certainly has done that, and everybody,

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Speaker 4: including the bomb vigilantis, are hoping that the Doge boys

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Speaker 4: are successful.

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Speaker 7: Do I detect a new phrase from thernetty continue, Well,

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Speaker 7: it's it's the shootout in Doge City, right, So I

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Speaker 7: can play with this one for a while.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I think where there is a capacity to

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Speaker 4: borrow more but there's no need to borrow more is

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Speaker 4: in the household sector. In the business sector, it's the

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Speaker 4: government that's on the wrong course. And if the government

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Speaker 4: kind of gets rained in, that crowds out less private

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Speaker 4: sector and investments. But look at the Magnificent seven. They

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Speaker 4: don't have to borrow money. They just generate a tremendous

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Speaker 4: amount of cash flow corporate cash Corporate cash flow is

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Speaker 4: at an all time record high, and so companies are

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Speaker 4: cash rich, and they are investing in technology.

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Speaker 3: And this is a great way to start a Friday

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Speaker 3: here into a weekend of a bull market. Edwards, your

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Speaker 3: Denny of your Denny research. I can't say enough about it.

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Speaker 3: We protect the copyright of all. I guess get is

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Speaker 3: wonderful readable research at Yard Denny. I can't say enough

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Speaker 3: about the value of that.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch US Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Jay Hatfield with US right now with the Infrastructure Capital Management,

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Speaker 3: will go to Lisa for the retail report and then

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Speaker 3: talk retail sales the state of the economy with mister Hatfield.

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Speaker 2: I gotta go Jay to what you're looking at now.

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Speaker 3: It's something Paul's alluded to because he keeps watching for

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Speaker 3: West Texas Intermediate with a sixty nine print. We're not

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Speaker 3: there yet, but nobody's modeling out not to be dramatic

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Speaker 3: a collapse in hydrocarbons, but just the bid falls away.

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Speaker 3: When and how does that happen?

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Speaker 8: Well, I guess one point where we have superior data

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Speaker 8: is that the notion that Trump is going to be

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Speaker 8: able to get the US producer to produce dramatically more

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Speaker 8: is probably incorrect. They continue to be focused on capital return,

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Speaker 8: return on invested CAPITALI saw Chevron laying people off.

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Speaker 2: More than that CUGE. We're just doing a huge.

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Speaker 8: Reason, right, So it wasn't really surprisingly partly because they're

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Speaker 8: just ineffective managers. Wasn't really constraining that Biden wasn't really

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Speaker 8: constraining US production. Is constraining US exports of natural gas,

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Speaker 8: but not oil. And we gather water in the Permian

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Speaker 8: and our indication is not like they're not going to

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Speaker 8: produce more. They're just going to follow their normal paths.

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Speaker 8: So that's not really a good bear case for oil.

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Speaker 8: But what we observe, and I think it's most people agree,

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Speaker 8: is that this administration is tremendous influence with particularly the

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Speaker 8: Saudi's given that they've sold arms they used to be

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Speaker 8: supporting the war with the Huties, and Trump is good

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Speaker 8: at using his influence. So we believe that even if

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Speaker 8: there's very strong Uranian restrictions on production, or even Russian

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Speaker 8: because they're trying to resolve the war, that if oil

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Speaker 8: prices go to eighty then he would call literally call

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Speaker 8: OPEC and say produce more. And we saw that actually

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Speaker 8: happen during the pandemic, so we I mean, there's always

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Speaker 8: a range with oil, because we could see sixty, which

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Speaker 8: could see eighty, But we just made a simple and

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Speaker 8: said seventy. We were at eighty, so we think it's

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Speaker 8: capped and all. That's important too, because everybody wants to

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Speaker 8: talk about the inflationary impacts of Trump policies, but nobody

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Speaker 8: wants to talk about any of the deflationary effects. Last

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Speaker 8: point is just the dollars ultra strong. That matters for

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Speaker 8: a while, so these but it's a very one sided

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Speaker 8: conversation about inflation in our opinion.

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Speaker 6: All right, I don't want to stay on that topic.

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Speaker 6: You have in your notes here which is very clear

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Speaker 6: inflation is always caused by excessive money supply growth as

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Speaker 6: occurred during the pandemic, and never by tariffs and deportation.

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Speaker 6: Talk to us about that, because I think a lot

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Speaker 6: of the concern about tariffs and about deportations is that

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Speaker 6: they will effect be inflation.

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Speaker 8: Well, the first thing that it's strange that nobody's really

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Speaker 8: pointed out is it's almost like we had the perfect

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Speaker 8: experiment to prove monetary theory. Seventy five percent increase in

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Speaker 8: the money spy, which netted down to sixty thirty eight

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Speaker 8: percent nominal GDP twenty two percent inflation. So it worked perfectly.

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Speaker 8: So the excess monetary growth translated inflation basically got Biden fired.

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Speaker 8: So thank you, Chair Powell. But that worked perfectly. But

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Speaker 8: nobody seems to care like that. Milton Friedman, you know,

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Speaker 8: would be dancing in the streets.

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Speaker 2: Is Chair Paul going to get Trump fired? Yeh possibly? Yes?

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Speaker 2: How what will be that problem?

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Speaker 8: We have ultra tight monetary policy right now. The thing

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Speaker 8: to look at is monetary supply. Money supplied growth. It's

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Speaker 8: negative three so that implies deflation. In fact, we'll see

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Speaker 8: about retail sales is a lagging indicator. But we think

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Speaker 8: the economy is slowing.

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Speaker 3: This morning with a blistering note on tightening off the

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Speaker 3: Fed balance sheet as well.

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Speaker 8: Right, so the key dynamics everybody debates is monetary policy tight.

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Speaker 8: When you're shrinking that I supply three percent, that's extremely tight.

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Speaker 3: Okay, let's do this, Cha Hatfield with us. We're going

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Speaker 3: to come back. He's with infrastructure at Capital Management. We're

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Speaker 3: going to stagger to retail sales report out of Friday

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Speaker 3: with Valentine, one hundred and fourteen percent are work from

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Speaker 3: home today future is a negative seven to features in

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Speaker 3: negative one oh five. The vics fifteen point two three.

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Speaker 3: Don't really know what to make of it all other

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Speaker 3: than here we are with the yields where they are

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Speaker 3: in retail sales matters. There's a number of lines of

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Speaker 3: retail sales else in that control group is what I

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Speaker 3: focus on.

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Speaker 2: So let's look at that.

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Speaker 9: And this is for January month over month retail sales.

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Speaker 6: The survey was for.

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Speaker 9: A decrease of two tens of percent. Came in a

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Speaker 9: decrease of nine tenths of a percent. So you see

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Speaker 9: the difference there. When you take autos and gas out

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Speaker 9: of the picture, it goes down to about down a

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Speaker 9: half a percent. And then we want to hit import

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Speaker 9: prices because we've been talking about that so much with tariffs.

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Speaker 9: The expectation was for an increase of four tens percent

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Speaker 9: increase about three tenths of a percent. Now let's see

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Speaker 9: the reaction on Wall Street, a little bit of a dip.

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Speaker 9: We have NAZAC futures down to tenth of a percent,

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Speaker 9: twenty six points down. Futures down now two tenths of

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Speaker 9: a percent, s and P future still down about a

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Speaker 9: tenth of a percent. Moving on to the bond space,

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Speaker 9: we have the two year yield at four point two

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Speaker 9: seven percent, that's off about three basis points. A ten

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Speaker 9: year yield four point five zero percent, and that's down

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Speaker 9: about two basis points.

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Speaker 2: Tom, Lisa, thanks so much.

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Speaker 3: Shield's come in, as Lisa mentioned, and the ten year

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Speaker 3: really yield two point zero five percent is in a

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Speaker 3: little bit nowhere near the ninety nine level. That's really

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Speaker 3: my demarcation, but to four digits two point zero four

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Speaker 3: seven zero and a ten year real yield dollars showing

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Speaker 3: further weakness and dx y one O eight one oh

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Speaker 3: seven now one oh six point seventy four, So sort

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Speaker 3: of quiescent field.

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Speaker 2: There, although the revisions went up. So it's sort of

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Speaker 2: a soup to say.

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Speaker 3: The least our economic indicators and all that Lisa Matteo

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Speaker 3: does on economics, it's brought to you by Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer

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Speaker 3: focuses the power of their thinking on you, creating customized

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Speaker 3: plans to help achieve their goals. Put the power of

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Speaker 3: Oppenheimer thinking into you're investing, wealth management, capital markets, investment banking.

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Speaker 6: Paul so Jay looking at the retail sales again, weaker

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Speaker 6: than expected. Here, talk to us about your.

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Speaker 2: View of the FED here.

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Speaker 6: I mean there's a concern that the FED is chronically

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Speaker 6: behind the curve because they look at historical data helping

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Speaker 6: of a problem is is that for you?

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Speaker 8: That's an enormous problem the FED, Well, they really have

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Speaker 8: three problems, but that's the biggest.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so as.

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Speaker 8: You know, because I was I believe leading to charge

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Speaker 8: on this, but you and okay, so in early twenty one,

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Speaker 8: because we of course do look at oil that matters,

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Speaker 8: and we look at other indicators of housing costs like

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Speaker 8: housing prices, but now we use just market rents. Because

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Speaker 8: there's this thing called the Internet and you can see it.

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Speaker 8: Maybe the BLS should start using that. But so the

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Speaker 8: FED seems to know this, but then they're so slavishly

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Speaker 8: focused on this two percent like it's some it came

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Speaker 8: down in a tablet from God. But when you we

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Speaker 8: actually publish on our website which they don't read that,

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Speaker 8: if you adjust that to market, then core PC guys

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Speaker 8: like two point one. In core CPI is like one

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Speaker 8: point nine. So they should be really concerned about having

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Speaker 8: ultra tight monetary policy and just continuing to cut it.

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Speaker 8: Meeting I don't have to do an emergency cut. But

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Speaker 8: they're completely off that page. They've driven the ten year

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Speaker 8: up one hundred basis points and risked a recession in

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Speaker 8: the housing market.

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Speaker 3: When you were at you Kill Davis, did they teach

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Speaker 3: the biblical fed they was said about tablets.

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Speaker 2: Well, they actually did.

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Speaker 8: And I think that's the big advantage because it was

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Speaker 8: forty five short years ago, and monitorism used to be

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Speaker 8: more popular now Keynesianism. You know, it's obviously most universities

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Speaker 8: are liberal and if you're knsy and it's wonderful because

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Speaker 8: all government spending is great. So I don't even hear

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Speaker 8: any monitorisms.

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Speaker 2: So what my monitorism is out of vogue? What is

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Speaker 2: the part of monitorism that our listeners and viewers should

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Speaker 2: pay attention to.

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Speaker 8: Well, I've looked at the monetary base every week. That's

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Speaker 8: a M. I learned that from you. Actually, I used

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Speaker 8: to think it's better to call M zero or MO,

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Speaker 8: so it comes out every weeks. That's an advantage over

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Speaker 8: one M one. And if you just follow that indicator,

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Speaker 8: you'll never miss a big cycle except the pandemic. Things

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Speaker 8: like the pandemic. So in other words, you know, we

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Speaker 8: were on saying, well it might spy went up seventy

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Speaker 8: five percent. Do we need to be geniuses that that

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Speaker 8: we're going to have inflation? Do we really think it's

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Speaker 8: transitory or now or a better example, great financial crisis.

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Speaker 8: We had zero percent monetary growth for four years before

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Speaker 8: the economy blew up. Now we have three percent negative.

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Speaker 8: So we would have said before as I guess I

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Speaker 8: did that, Oh we think retail sales lags, but.

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Speaker 2: We could be weak.

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Speaker 8: Well, this is really weak negative point eight, and nobody

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Speaker 8: cares about. The last GDP print was only two point three.

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Speaker 2: We're going to get you.

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Speaker 3: On before the next FED made in to talk about this.

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Speaker 3: It's a thing from a different time and place.

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Speaker 2: As well.

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Speaker 3: On Monitorism, Jay Hatfield is with infrastructure and we thank

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Speaker 3: him for the infracap as well.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday,

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Speaker 1: started at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

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00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Now, let me explain why this is important.

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Speaker 3: Lindsay Pigson was my Economist of the Year last year.

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Speaker 3: There's other people that have got it right. Forget about disinflation.

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Speaker 3: There's going to be a sticky inflation. L Aeran out

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Speaker 3: front of this. Jim Bianco was out front of this,

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Speaker 3: but no one wrote week after week after week intelligently

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Speaker 3: about this, like doctor Pigs and she dark as the

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Speaker 3: door of the studio.

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Speaker 2: Today she is with STIFA Financial.

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Speaker 3: Lindsey again, congratulations because the data that we saw this

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Speaker 3: week clearly alludes.

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Speaker 2: To your tone.

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Speaker 3: And I got Richard Clarita in the ft saying disinflation

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Speaker 3: tendency is placed Edward Yardenny into seven o'clock hours, Is

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Speaker 3: a disinflationary tendency is in place? Is it's a disinflationary

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Speaker 3: tendency in place?

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Speaker 10: Well, the data doesn't seem to suggest that. The data

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Speaker 10: suggests that we did have strong disinflation, but as of

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Speaker 10: last year, that trend now remains increasingly uncertain, with many

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Speaker 10: of these key metrics moving to the sideways, and more

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Speaker 10: recently we've seen an acceleration right with the PPI the

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Speaker 10: CPI accelerating for the past three four months, some of

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Speaker 10: these underlying key metrics more than double the FEDS intended target.

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Speaker 10: That doesn't give me more FED officials much confidence that

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Speaker 10: we're going to reinstate that disinflation.

440
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I saw audit insurance up eleven percent. You're in

441
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,640
Speaker 3: the wheelhouse of this. In the Midwest, there's a cottage

442
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 3: industry Dallas, Chicago, Cleveland of taking the seventy eight things

443
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 3: or whatever that make up inflation.

444
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 2: I want to pick up this, I want to pick

445
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 2: up that. I want to pick up this other thing

446
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:50,959
Speaker 2: as well.

447
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 3: Our Paul and my viewers and listeners hate that because

448
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 3: they're paying the bills.

449
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 10: Correct.

450
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 3: What are people feeling away from the contrived CPIS series, Well,

451
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 3: if we.

452
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 10: Look at this morning's retail sales numbers, we know exactly

453
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 10: how consumers are feeling. Even if we parse out some

454
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 10: of the weather effects or some of the effects from

455
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 10: the fires that we saw in the recent times, what

456
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 10: we're seeing is consumers responding to the ongoing burden of

457
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 10: elevated prices, and that's forcing somewhat of a pullback in expenditures. Now, again,

458
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 10: this isn't an end all. We have seen consumers spending

459
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 10: at a relatively resilient, relatively robust pace, to be honest,

460
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 10: for the past several months, but that burden of higher

461
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 10: prices is forcing a slowdown in the pace of consumption

462
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 10: for consumers, and that's going to be a big challenge

463
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 10: for top line GDP. As we know, the consumer is

464
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 10: the backbone to the economy.

465
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 6: So if I'm of the Federal Reserve, do I stick

466
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 6: with A I mean, you could argue this data suggest

467
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,919
Speaker 6: that maybe they should in fact be thinking about cutting rates,

468
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 6: and maybe that whole discussion of maybe lifting rates that's

469
00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 6: completely off the table. How do you think the FED

470
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 6: is going to interpret this retail SALESPAP.

471
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 10: I think the Fed is looking at the data coupled

472
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 10: with the hotter than expected reads on CPI and PPI

473
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 10: saying we need to be firmly positioned on the sideline

474
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 10: to allow the data to further evolve. Give us time

475
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 10: to assess the data and assess the impact of the

476
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 10: incoming fiscal policies that are coming down the pipeline. So

477
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 10: the FED wants to take its time, be patient, and

478
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 10: as Chair Paul has said, they are in no rush

479
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 10: to move policy at this point. Remember they've already made

480
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 10: a series of policy mistakes along the way. They relate

481
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 10: to the inflation taming party on the front end. They

482
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 10: didn't raise rates high enough on the back end. Now

483
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 10: what we're stuck with is stubbornly elevated inflation and rising

484
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 10: fears of potentially emerging weakness on the consumer side or

485
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 10: in the labor market.

486
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 3: And I'll let you pick six months, twelve months, whatever

487
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 3: your duration is real GDP a nominal GDP and does

488
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 3: that allow central Banker to the world, Donald Trump to

489
00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,120
Speaker 3: get his low rate regime.

490
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 2: I mean, where are you on real and nominal No.

491
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 10: I think it's going to be very difficult for the

492
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 10: administration to see a realized reduction in rates as they

493
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 10: would like to see. Now that that's nothing against the current.

494
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 2: Ministers buoyant, solid real GDP.

495
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 10: I think real GDP is sub one percent for the

496
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 10: next twelve to eighteen months. I think that's going to

497
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 10: be very difficult to get above when we look at

498
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 10: these still elevated inflation levels and we see this loss

499
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 10: of momentum, a clear loss of momentum under I've never.

500
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 2: Said this, Paul, nominal under four.

501
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 10: Percent, nominal under four you're killing me. It's not necessarily

502
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 10: a rosy outlook, but I think it's a realistic outlook

503
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 10: that we have to contend with.

504
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 2: Can the Red Sox win this year? Can they take

505
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 2: the pennant?

506
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 10: I wouldn't be able to speak intelligently about that.

507
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 2: You weren't talking sub forenomenal.

508
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 10: I think it's a realistic one, Tom. That's why I'm

509
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 10: so concerned about stagflation. This FED is so concerned about

510
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 10: avoiding negative growth that they're willing to tolerate above target

511
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 10: inflation for a prolonged period of time, eventually choking offside

512
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 10: potential extreme plate.

513
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 3: I mean, we're just nobody's listening today. It's Valentine's Day.

514
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 3: You work clubs blue, Thank you, Lindsey. If you get

515
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 3: that scenario, what does that do to non farm payrolls

516
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 3: the unemployment rate.

517
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,360
Speaker 10: Well, we've already seen non farm payrolls lose momentum over

518
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 10: the past couple of years. We're talking about an average

519
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 10: pace of one sixty six since the start of last year.

520
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 10: So if we continue to see this erosion in the

521
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 10: upside potential of the economy, I think we get closer

522
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 10: to one twenty one thirty on a monthly basis. That

523
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 10: drives the unemployment rate up into that range of full

524
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 10: employment as the FED has been looking at for quite

525
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 10: some time, and that gives them somewhat of a more

526
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 10: stable labor market. We're not concerned about overheating, but it

527
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 10: does perpetual.

528
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't agree, Vice Chairman Trump, Paul's going to

529
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 3: go mental. That's what's going to happen.

530
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 6: Well, are you concerned about these inflation risks that may

531
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 6: or may not come from tariffs and from changing immigration policy.

532
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 6: We had a guest on earlier Tennis say, that's not

533
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 6: the problem. The problems always is money supply. Don't worry

534
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 6: about the tariff and things like that.

535
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 10: Do you worry about the ten I'm concerned about the

536
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 10: already ingrained level of inflation in the economy. That's my

537
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 10: primary concern. The implementation or the use of tariffs to

538
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 10: negotiate better trade deals, to negotiate cooperation and international conflicts,

539
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 10: or to cooperate in terms of more stringent immigration rules.

540
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 10: That's where I think the administration is ultimately headed. So

541
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 10: I think the most dire scenario of forty sixty percent

542
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 10: tariffs being implemented, that's really off the table. I think

543
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 10: a more realistic scenario is a much more diluted or

544
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 10: muted scenario.

545
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 3: So what you're not doing a fixed income ballet? But

546
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 3: what's your fixed income regime?

547
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 4: Here?

548
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 3: Do you see a ten year real yield peaking out

549
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 3: two point two zero comes down to one ninety nine

550
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 3: right now two oh three? Are you looking for the

551
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: real yielded you completely break down to like a one seventy.

552
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 10: Not entirely, because remember the things that are going to

553
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 10: keep the longer end of the curve elevated. Is this

554
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 10: wake up call that investors have been having for exactly

555
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 10: about thirty four trillion dollars in debt, a deficit pushing

556
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 10: up to seven percent, double the historic normal. So I

557
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 10: do think that investors they have pushed that to the wayside,

558
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 10: and they pushed it to the wayside last year amid

559
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 10: the notion of the Fed eventually cutting rates. But if

560
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 10: the downside potential for monetary policy is essentially stalled and

561
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 10: we see fiscal policy continue to expand the balance sheet,

562
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 10: I think that's going to provide a very solid floor

563
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 10: to longer term rates.

564
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 6: So when we see in retail sales data points like

565
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 6: today that are significantly weaker than expected, does that call?

566
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: Is that a one off fires? Winter weather?

567
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 6: Which I hate using the weather, but a lot of

568
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 6: people do, including every retail analyst out there. Is that

569
00:29:58,280 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 6: a one off or is that something that we should

570
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 6: really be concerned about?

571
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 10: Do you think well, I think we can explain away

572
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 10: a lot of the weakness because of the weather, because

573
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 10: of the fires. But I think it's also reflective of

574
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 10: this underlying pressure as we talked about, because of this

575
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 10: rising and elevated rate environment, cost environment for consumers. I

576
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 10: think it's also a reflection of consumers uncertainty about what

577
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 10: is coming down the pipeline. And we saw that reflective

578
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 10: and consumer confidence taking a sizable dip at the start

579
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 10: of the year. So consumers understand that right now their

580
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 10: financial footing is very much a question mark, and that's

581
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 10: playing into their near term decisions of expenditures and their

582
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 10: confidence for the longer run.

583
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 3: Forget about the pigs of theater of a sub one

584
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 3: percent real GDP.

585
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 2: Let's go halfway there.

586
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 3: We get to one point seven percent real GDP for

587
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 3: some quarter. It's out there somewhere. When do they cut rates?

588
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 3: That's got to be almost not a force measure, but

589
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 3: it's almost a right now, I would say, in the

590
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 3: framework of people, almost a crisis. Well to get a

591
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 3: one seven statistics.

592
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 10: But It's important to understand the motivation behind the rate

593
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 10: cuts because I think at this point when we look

594
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 10: at the FEDS motivation. Early on, it was to counteract

595
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 10: the fear of emerging weakness in the labor market which

596
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 10: failed to materialize, as well as a desire to pass

597
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 10: through as much relief as possible before the uncertainty of

598
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 10: the new fiscal policy agenda was coming into play. Now

599
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 10: the motivation shifts to simply diverting policy from still firm

600
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 10: territory back towards neutral as the economy normalizes.

601
00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 3: So what are we going to do with a one

602
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 3: point seven percent real GDP and the mortgage rates seven

603
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 3: percent down?

604
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 2: Tell me what the housing market does.

605
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's going to be a challenge right there. Lindsay,

606
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 6: talk to us about inflation and when the consumers, When

607
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 6: do we stop complaining about inflation? When do we say,

608
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 6: my pressure of coin flakes down, but my presce of

609
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 6: cornflakes is twenty five percent higher than it was before

610
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 6: the pandemic, but it's been there for three four years now,

611
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 6: When do I stop saying complaining about that jump in

612
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 6: my precious cornflakes and say, oh, it's only up two

613
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:08,719
Speaker 6: percent year?

614
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 2: Every year.

615
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 10: Well, I think we actually did see that over the

616
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 10: past couple of years, this expectation of consistent monthly increases

617
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 10: of point two point three, even point four to your point.

618
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 10: But I do think at this turn of the of

619
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 10: the road, consumers have reached a precipice where they're going

620
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 10: to be increasingly unable to continue to foot that consistent

621
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 10: price increase. And that's where it's starting to weigh now

622
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 10: on these shopping decisions, on these consumption decisions, on consumer confidence. Remember,

623
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 10: consumers have been increasingly reliant on buy now, pay later options,

624
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 10: but that only lasts for so long. With credit card

625
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 10: balances at one point two trillion, delinquencies are starting to

626
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 10: tick higher now, not meaningfully so. I think when we

627
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 10: look at the vulnerabilities of the household balance sheet, they're

628
00:32:56,200 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 10: still relatively moderate, but we're starting to see indications of

629
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 10: again that emerging profound weekly.

630
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 3: This is really profound. I mean, this is really really

631
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 3: a good conversation, folks. To summarize, Lindsay Piggs is looking

632
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 3: for real GDP really to come, inflation to be a

633
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 3: little slower stagflation in order. Good morning, Professor Summers. If

634
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 3: we start with any central bank as ex post and

635
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 3: you've nailed this. How ex post is your own Powell,

636
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 3: particularly given White House pressures.

637
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 2: Well, remember, I'm looking for a rate cut call. Can

638
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 2: I get one? It's Valentine's Day? Can we again?

639
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 6: Right now?

640
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 10: The Fed still is desperately trying to provide additional relief,

641
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 10: but they're only going to be able to do that

642
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 10: if they see inflation arrest this upward trend. They don't

643
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 10: even need to see inflation resume the disinflationary trend. They

644
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 10: just need to be convinced that we're going to continue

645
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 10: to move sideways with no further upward pressure. And or

646
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 10: we see sizeable indications of emerging weakness in the labor market.

647
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 10: But we need one or both of those scenarios in

648
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 10: order to justifi an additional rate cut. Now, will we

649
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 10: see significant rate reductions under that scenario?

650
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 2: Likely?

651
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 10: No one, at most two. But again that is further

652
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 10: justified as policy remains in firm territory and we want

653
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 10: to get back towards neutral.

654
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 6: All right, Lindsay, it's pictures and catchers, baseball seasons back.

655
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,399
Speaker 6: Can I ask you a Chicago question. You're Chicago native,

656
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 6: absolutely Cubs, white Sox. What determines whether you're a Cubs

657
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 6: fan or White Sox. And it's as simply geography.

658
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 10: It is geography. It's proximity. Yes, it's where you live.

659
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 10: If you're on the north side versus the south side,

660
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 10: and so how.

661
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 6: Does that work out for us? Your north side you're

662
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 6: a wet fan.

663
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 10: If you're on the north side, you're you're typically a

664
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 10: Cubs fan. On the south side you typically root for

665
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 10: the White Sox.

666
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:44,080
Speaker 6: Really, it's not like handed down like here's Yankees. I

667
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 6: think it's kind of who your parents are.

668
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 10: And how there may be some of that over the

669
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 10: generation card line is typically designated towards say, I.

670
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 6: Don't have a great feel for Chicago. I love Chicago.

671
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 6: I don't have a good feel for what drives kind

672
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 6: of those things. So I'm glad you cleared that for.

673
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 3: Us, Lindsay Pigs, So thank you so much.

674
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 2: Really thought provoking.

675
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 10: We can't say.

676
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 2: From it is as well.

677
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

678
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

679
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

680
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

681
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:27,720
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal Daily.

682
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 3: Look, it's the front pages. We're gonna do that right now.

683
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 3: We're do that with Lisa Mateo. It's a special edition

684
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 3: of our Front Pages report.

685
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 2: I'm so far behind. I'm like trying to get a

686
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 2: fat X on the rock Valentine's Day card for Lisa. Oh,

687
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:43,879
Speaker 2: it's it's it's there.

688
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 5: He is.

689
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 2: I hope he gets a royalty on that, Lisa, what

690
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:47,799
Speaker 2: do you got? Thank you?

691
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 9: Well, it's been cold here right rain snow, it's been

692
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 9: kind of miserable, but we are getting closer to outdoor

693
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,879
Speaker 9: dining season. April first is the day when you start

694
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 9: to see everything come out. The problem is that there's

695
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 9: a backlog of applications. So the Department of Transportation, they're

696
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:07,240
Speaker 9: the ones that approved the licenses for them to build

697
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 9: the sheds and do all that.

698
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 2: This is the street, so we still do that.

699
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 9: We're still doing it because remember they took them down

700
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 9: last year because some of them were an iore and

701
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 9: that kind of Yeah, a lot of them. So the

702
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 9: Department of Transportation has to approve the licenses. So about

703
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 9: four thousand applications have been submitted, thirty nine have been

704
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 9: approved out of four thousands.

705
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 6: I didn't know we were still doing that.

706
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:30,879
Speaker 9: We're still doing it. So now they're kind of giving

707
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 9: the restaurants the green light. If they put in the application,

708
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 9: they can build the shed up April first if they

709
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 9: apply by the certain rules.

710
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 6: But it's just OK, it's a pretty well, it's good

711
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 6: for them.

712
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 2: It's a little bit of an just being in Paris.

713
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 3: I wish we had the sidewalks of Paris so the

714
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 3: cafes were comfortable outside, right.

715
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 2: But our sidewalks are just too narrow.

716
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean they're dining was great during the pandemic.

717
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 6: Thank goodness, it's saved.

718
00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 5: I think a lot of.

719
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 6: Restaurants for consumers, but I don't know how much.

720
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 3: I don't want Dan doctor Off full disclosure. Folks used

721
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 3: to work her huge support of mine, Thank you, Dan.

722
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 3: Dan doctor Off provided leadership here on the safety issue

723
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 3: of them. And what Lisa you're talking about is the

724
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 3: now what.

725
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, right? Interesting? What do you got We'll.

726
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:18,880
Speaker 6: See what happens.

727
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 9: Okay, More adults are actually eating off of the kids menu.

728
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 9: So there was a study that came out a number

729
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,359
Speaker 9: of kids meals placed by adults ro was twenty eight

730
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 9: percent last year compared with twenty nineteen. The reason why

731
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 9: the smaller portions right, lower calories because a lot more

732
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 9: people on the weight loss drugs, so now they need the.

733
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 2: Smaller portion issue cue, so they go.

734
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 9: To the kids menu, cheaper prices to and hey, you

735
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 9: get a toy you know to go with it, or

736
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 9: price to come along.

737
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,280
Speaker 3: I literally go Paul to a certain restaurant, pretty fancy

738
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 3: in the Upper East Side because their portions are smaller. Yep,

739
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 3: it's not what was the one one of the big chains,

740
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 3: like their gimmick was you would go home with fans

741
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 3: full of stuff.

742
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 9: Yeah, or even you go to like to a diner

743
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 9: and your plate for like breakfast is enormous.

744
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 2: We split it.

745
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 6: We will split our dinner a lot do they do that?

746
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 6: Or do and sometimes you get a charge and sometimes

747
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 6: I just ordered the appetizer thing. But the exception is

748
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 6: crack a barrel. You go in near full bore country

749
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 6: boy breakfast, bring it on.

750
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 9: Yeah, but you're right all right, but there And the

751
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 9: thing is there's an age limit, right, it's like twelve

752
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:29,479
Speaker 9: and under or something. A lot of restaurants, but.

753
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 6: There was.

754
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney at two am and Shay Waff you would

755
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:41,240
Speaker 2: see Carolina exactly. I got an exam and statistics. Please

756
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 2: help me.

757
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 9: Next, okay, last one, the rise of the three pointer. Okay,

758
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 9: they're saying it's kind of changing basketball. They don't know

759
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 9: if it's for the good or for the you know,

760
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,879
Speaker 9: for the worst. Steph Curry, of course, a big thanks

761
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 9: to this, because you established yourself the best long range shooter.

762
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 9: So now these generations of basketball players who watch him

763
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 9: and look up to him growing.

764
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 6: Up are now in the NBA.

765
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 9: So now you have more of these guys shooting from

766
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:08,760
Speaker 9: the outside. Even the taller guys, the over seven footers

767
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 9: are shooting behind the three pointly, I know.

768
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 6: Just the evolution of the game, I mean, and all

769
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 6: the If you can't shoot the three, I don't know

770
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 6: how you get to a good college.

771
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 2: Come on, they should knock the thing backs three feet

772
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 2: or four feet.

773
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 6: They could, they could, and then the players will adjust.

774
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 3: That, you know.

775
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

776
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each

777
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com,

778
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

779
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 1: You can also watch US live every weekday on YouTube

780
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:50,760
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal