1 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. 2 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe. Joe. Can you believe 3 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:21,799 Speaker 1: it has been one year since Russia invaded Ukraine? Yeah, 4 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: it has been pretty extraordinary, remarkable. You're just like in 5 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:30,319 Speaker 1: so many different respects, sort of the changing narratives over 6 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: time with the war, the persistence of the war I 7 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: think some people might have expected to be and much sooner, 8 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 1: changing expectations, where would go the narrative arounda the effect 9 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 1: on commodities and economics changed a lot over the last time. 10 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 1: And I still feel like after this time, you know, 11 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 1: I'm still tons of ambiguity about where it's going and 12 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: what the effects are going to be. Well. Absolutely, and 13 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: I remember this time in two when Russia first invaded Ukraine. 14 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: Some of the headline that we're flying around where you know, 15 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 1: this is the beginning of World War three? Is this 16 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:09,039 Speaker 1: the start of some sort of you know, nuclear apocalypse? Given, um, 17 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: we were talking about the involvement of Russia and potentially 18 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 1: NATO as well, And then you mentioned the economic narrative, 19 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 1: and that has changed quite remarkably in terms of you know, 20 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: the European energy story. There were lots of concerns about 21 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 1: We're going to have massive gas shortages, Europe isn't going 22 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:30,199 Speaker 1: to be able to handle this. But actually, fast forward 23 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: twelve months, it hasn't been as bad as a lot 24 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: of people seem to have expected. You're absolutely right, This 25 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: winter so far has not been the disaster for the 26 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: European economy that many have expected it. Interestingly, my impression 27 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,559 Speaker 1: is that the Russian economy is not the basket case 28 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: that many would have expected either, given both the cost 29 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: of prosecuting the war in terms of raw materials, human lives, 30 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: and so forth, and then of course the sanctions which 31 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: both limited a sort of revenue generation opportunities but also 32 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: the opportunity for technical imports. And my impression, again only 33 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: you know, only sort of very very modest insight, is 34 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 1: that Russia has over time figured out ways around or 35 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 1: how to live with these various constraints. Well, there is 36 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: a vibrant debate on the extent of damages that sanctions 37 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 1: have actually inflicted on the Russian economy, of course, and 38 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 1: also there's a lack of information at the moment, you know, 39 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 1: there there there are different sides in this conflict, and 40 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: each one has their own story to tell. So on 41 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: that note, in order to stop and think and discuss 42 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: what exactly we've learned over the past year or so 43 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 1: about this ongoing conflict. I'm very pleased to say we 44 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: actually have the perfect odd thoughts guest, really, the perfect 45 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: perfect guest. This is someone that I met at the 46 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 1: Explorers Club in New York. He is a retired senior 47 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: executive at the CIA. He also served with the FBI 48 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:05,359 Speaker 1: and the Defense Department. He started out as a cryptologist 49 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: in the Navy, studying Russian and deploying at sea. He 50 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: has a PhD in Russian history at Colombia and in 51 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: Russian economic history. I should say he specialized in the 52 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: history of the Russian stock market. He is now a 53 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 1: consultant teaching at undergraduate and graduate levels. But really, I mean, 54 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 1: I'm trying to summarize the car but really, the perfect 55 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: odd lots guests. So we're going to be speaking with 56 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: Robert pat Robert, thank you so much for coming on 57 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: All thoughts well, Tracy and Joe, thanks for having me, 58 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: and thank you for that wonderful introduction. I consider myself 59 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: a bit of an odd lot, so I feel like 60 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: I'm in a good place you're in the right place. 61 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: I would also note that the last time we spoke, 62 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: we were surrounded by life sized polar bears and narwall 63 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: tusks and Ammonson's sled, So this is maybe a little 64 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: bit different, but I think we'll work it out. Fine. Yeah, well, 65 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: we'll ask all lots of listeners to just imagine that 66 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: you are surrounded by a stuff animals and that you know, 67 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: I think we were speaking during a thunderstorm um in 68 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: New York and it was quite atmospheric. Okay, with that 69 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: caveat Robert, why don't you start with just where are 70 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: we in this conflict? You know, it's twelve months on 71 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: from when Russia invaded Ukraine. A lot of people were 72 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: not expecting it to make that move. Where are we 73 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: in this conflict? I think this war, and we'll call 74 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: it a war. It started out for the Russians as 75 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: the Speziano Pazzi, the Special military Operation. We still don't 76 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: like to call it a war, although every once in 77 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: a while a minister like the German Foreign Minister actually 78 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 1: come out and say that it is. But it is 79 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: a war. It is one of the worst things that's 80 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: happened to Europe. I think since nineteen I think we've 81 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: gone well past the Balkans conflict at this point, and 82 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 1: you know, at one year, I think this is really 83 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: confounded expectations at at all levels. I remember days before it, 84 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: I was doing a teleconference on this and most people said, no, 85 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: the Russians, they won't do it, they're threatening there on 86 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,039 Speaker 1: the borders, they won't actually go in. And then on 87 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: February they went in, and the way they went in 88 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: was so messy, so unsound from a strategic standpoint, attacking 89 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: on all fronts with insufficient personnel, with insufficient supply lines, 90 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: and not expecting the bravery of the resistance of the Ukrainians, 91 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: and also the level of support remember back in the 92 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: time of St. Javelin and the Stingers from the US 93 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 1: and its partners, and I think that just profoundly shocked them, 94 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: because a lot of people, even in the United States, 95 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 1: even on the intelligent side, thought no, Kiev may fall immediately, 96 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: and it didn't. And then the war started to drag 97 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: out and get uglier and uglier. So it's not that 98 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,479 Speaker 1: war anymore. It's also not what I would call the 99 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: war that we saw in August and September, where the 100 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: Russians woke up to their shock and realized they didn't 101 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 1: have enough forces in country, and they were retreating wholesale, 102 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: giving up territory that they in fact that annexed at 103 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: one point, which is terribly humiliating for them, but it 104 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: was really part of a strategic decision I think by 105 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: the Russians to marshal their forces, to reduce their casualties, 106 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 1: and to dig in until this mobilization of reserves began, 107 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 1: not a general mobilization, but of reserves, and to strengthen 108 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: their lines along the Nupper River, a natural boundary. And 109 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: this fast forwards us to today as we watched this grinding, 110 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: painful level of battles and places like bah Mud for example, 111 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 1: and while we all in the United States and Europe 112 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,239 Speaker 1: and and and frankly in Russian and around the world 113 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 1: marvel at all these weapons systems that are being deployed, 114 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 1: and drones and intelligence and I s R assets and 115 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: so on. This is becoming like a World War One 116 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 1: slug fest with artillery. And I think we're reaching a 117 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: point now where the main issue is who can last 118 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: the longest, who has the most personnel, who has the 119 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: most artillery shells, who can take the most pain and 120 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: how long will the resolve of the West last in this? 121 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: And I think on that account, there's there's a lot 122 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: of positive news coming out of coming out of NATO, 123 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 1: But I think the expectations at the beginning of the 124 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: war on all sides have truly been confounded. I don't 125 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: see a revel resolution at any point in the near future. 126 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 1: This could end up being something where both sides are 127 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 1: dug in and their positional battles for territory. That could 128 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: be a large or more than one Russian offensive, that 129 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: could be a Ukrainian counter offensive. But what worries me 130 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: the most Joe and Tracy is that the expectations on 131 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: both sides, it's hard to retreat from them. The United 132 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: States has said we're all in, NATO has said we're 133 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: all in. Russia is certainly all in as a matter 134 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: of national survival and political survival at this point. So 135 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: I'm kind of pessimistic about the outlook in the near term, 136 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: if that's fair. Let me just add a couple of 137 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: other things. There are a couple of areas that I 138 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 1: really follow closely with this, and these are how do 139 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: we define war? I think that is a fascinating strategic 140 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: question going forward. What is the role of information warfare 141 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: in this which I think is quite profound. And finally, 142 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 1: something I think of interest to to to your to 143 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: your listeners especially is the role of economic warfare here. 144 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: This question might dovetail with your sort of thoughts on 145 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: how do we define war? But some people we've spoken 146 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: to and people elsewhere, they have this idea that the 147 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: end of this war looks like the end of many 148 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:41,439 Speaker 1: other wars, which is not ended. But you know, persistent, 149 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: low level, dotted line borders that no one ever really 150 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: agrees to, but that often is how the world ends up. 151 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: And I guess the classic example would be, you know, 152 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 1: the division between Korea and North Korea, which the war 153 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: is technically never ended. And I think people say, look, 154 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: this is how the final chapter ys of war. Look, 155 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: no one actually agrees that this is the border just 156 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: sort of becomes the new border. Does that seem like 157 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: the direction it's heading in? And I guess, like to 158 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: to your broader point, what does it mean to say 159 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: there is a war on or there isn't a war on? Ye? Joe, 160 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,439 Speaker 1: I think that's a really great point. It's it's it's 161 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,319 Speaker 1: interesting I often ask students when was the last time 162 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: the United States was in a war? And there are 163 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: a variety of answers. They come up with Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, 164 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 1: the Global War on Terrorism. And I tell them and 165 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 1: some of them get it that it was really in 166 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 1: the World War Two. It was really the declaration of 167 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 1: war in World War Two. So we're seeing new ways 168 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,440 Speaker 1: of looking at what participation and and a war is 169 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: direct versus indirect. For example, if you equip an army, 170 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: train an army provided with intelligence, give it strategic guidance, 171 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 1: tactical guidance, and even to a limited extent, there are volunteers, mercenaries, 172 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 1: contractors on the ground. When does a war become a 173 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,719 Speaker 1: hot war? How do we define a war? And I 174 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: would put this in terms of the information war and 175 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: the economic war too. But your point about Korea is excellent. 176 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: And I think the way we're looking at this now, 177 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 1: now that the Russians are pretty much entrenched with with 178 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: a with a river, the Upper River between them, and 179 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 1: that great open mass heading towards the fields, heading towards Kiev, 180 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 1: I find it hard to imagine that the Russians will 181 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 1: retreat from the areas that they've annexed Donyetsk, Luganska, Zaporojia, 182 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: Zaria and Ukrainian Harson. Of course they've already lost some 183 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 1: of these areas two brilliant Ukrainian counter offensives. But I 184 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: see them fighting back until they recover these areas. And 185 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 1: the question is when we get to your demilitarized zone, 186 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: and I think it's a it's a it's a it's 187 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:51,839 Speaker 1: a brilliant concept for this is where does that end? 188 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: I think if the Russians could, they would try to 189 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 1: get the whole Black Sea coast, meaning go down to Nikolaiev, 190 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: go down to Odessa maybe, and go all the way 191 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 1: down to the Maldovan border. The Maldovan government is collapsing 192 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: as we speak, and there's Transmistria there with Russian troops 193 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,719 Speaker 1: in it. I think it's impossible to forecast this at 194 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 1: this point. I do not think the Russians ever sought 195 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,839 Speaker 1: to take all of Ukraine, not that heart land part 196 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: of Ukraine, you know, going back to Alexey miy Kailovitch, 197 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 1: the the seconds are for example, I don't think they 198 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: ever had an interest in Lviv and Galicia. They might 199 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,560 Speaker 1: going a little bit further north towards Harket, for example. 200 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 1: So I think you're right. I I think this will 201 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 1: have to end with exhaustion at some point and some 202 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 1: kind of low simmering demilitarized zone conflict line which frankly 203 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: has existed in the dunbast since two thousand and fourteen, 204 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 1: with artillery showing and fighting on both sides. I know 205 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,479 Speaker 1: that's not a great answer, but I don't think anybody 206 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: has a great answer as to how this ends. Yeah, 207 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,240 Speaker 1: you know, whenever I or a question like how do 208 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 1: we define war? I start to get flashbacks to studying 209 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 1: international relations at university, and you know, reading the likes 210 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 1: of Francis Fukiyama and the end of history and this 211 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: idea that no to true democracies have ever gone to 212 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,679 Speaker 1: war with each other. And one question that I always 213 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: wanted to ask a spook or a former spook, is 214 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 1: you know when that conversation or when that talking point 215 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 1: was at its height, you know, the early two thousands, 216 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: everyone's talking about globalization and you know, democracy for the 217 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 1: win and all of that. What did you think, you know, 218 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,559 Speaker 1: you're working in the background with actual intelligence reports, did 219 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: you think that that was something that was plausible at 220 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 1: that point. I I I personally thought at the time 221 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,000 Speaker 1: that you know, we had this remarkable victory that ended 222 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 1: in the defeat of the Soviet Union, the dissolution of 223 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union, and I think there was a great 224 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: opportunity early on in that after the war all fell, 225 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: after the Russian Federation became an entity in the Soviet Union, 226 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: went away to really help them into sort of the 227 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 1: world global order, if you will. And we sent a 228 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 1: bunch of venture capitalists in the time, and frankly, the 229 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 1: Russians with Western helped really botched the privatization. It was 230 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: terrible how it went about. I still have these pictures 231 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:26,559 Speaker 1: of the old ladies selling their their potential shares and companies, 232 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 1: their certificates for a bottle of vodka, not understanding that 233 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: they were worth thousands of dollars if they could just 234 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 1: hold on, but at the time they couldn't need. The 235 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: situation was terrible. They had no money in the bank whatsoever. 236 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 1: And this became kind of a kleptocracy there where the 237 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 1: oligarchs and later the the the the the the the 238 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: power people in Russia who are more important than the 239 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: oligarchs in this war just took everything, and it became 240 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 1: a country where you were not going to have a 241 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 1: conventional type of capitalism. So I feel there was a 242 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: bit of a lost opportunity be there. I don't know 243 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: if a martial plan was needed as we had after 244 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: World War Two, or another massive aid package, or more 245 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: just understanding how deeply wounded people like Putin who emerged 246 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,719 Speaker 1: from this were, the feeling that they had lost their 247 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 1: way of life their government, for good or for bad. 248 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 1: Communism has always resulted in dramatic failure. But when Fukayama 249 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: came out and I wanted to avoid this, but you've 250 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: dragged me in an alternate. I think his comment that 251 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 1: somehow that this was the end of history, that liberal 252 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: democracy had won, that all the old things that bothered 253 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: people in the past, ethnicities, language, culture, borders, just jealousy 254 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: over a size of military over economic resources and so on, 255 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 1: suddenly this had gone. And I thought that was naive then, 256 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: and I think it's it's naive now. He didn't invent that. 257 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,160 Speaker 1: Of course, this was thought after the French Revolution. This 258 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: was thought with the Congress of Vienna after the War 259 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: of eighteen twelve. You can even go back to Hagel 260 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: and Marks and look at how the dialectic of how 261 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 1: society would would develop and how the world would developed. 262 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: I think what we're seeing now is that all of 263 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 1: the old things that bothered people in the past and 264 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: brought people to war in the past still exist. And 265 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: I find it horrifying that Russians and Ukrainians, who speak 266 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 1: relatively similar languages, who have relatively similar cultural backgrounds, are 267 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: now killing each other on mass and I find that 268 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 1: very disturbing, and I think there's almost no going back 269 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 1: at this point. I want to ask a sort of 270 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: concrete question. Maybe it's a little bit theoretical, but like, 271 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 1: how would you characterize the degree of involvement of US 272 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: and NATO in this war? Because you know, leaders in 273 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: the West make pains to say we are not at 274 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: war with Russia, and for all kinds of reasons, particularly 275 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: because of anxiety about nuclear war, they're very good reasons 276 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: to sort of not actually do things that would entail 277 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: the US or other NATO countries of being at war 278 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 1: with Russia. Nonetheless, obviously we've supplied Ukraine quite a bit 279 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 1: of weapons, as you mentioned, training, etcetera. Can you help 280 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: like tease apart in our minds, What is the role 281 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 1: of the US and NATO in this war currently and 282 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: what would be the type of action that would go 283 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: over some line that people in the international community have 284 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:53,560 Speaker 1: about what sort of a direct involvement means, you know, 285 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 1: those are those are those are great and and and 286 00:16:55,760 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 1: very uh vexing questions. I think it's it's quite are 287 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 1: to say we are fully engaged in a proxy war 288 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: at this point, and I wish I hadn't seen some 289 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,679 Speaker 1: of the statements I have from people who I think 290 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,959 Speaker 1: should not be making them that goals include breaking up 291 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: the Russian state, pushing Putin out of power, and even 292 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 1: the idea that Ukraine is somehow going to get back 293 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 1: every last inch of territory, including Crimea, which the Russians 294 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:28,120 Speaker 1: recovered in fifteen and historically was a Russian area. So 295 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 1: I think I think the the role of diplomacy, which 296 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 1: has really been biled in this effort. There was a 297 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: bit with the Turks early on, and now some countries 298 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 1: even like Brazil and Mexico and others, are talking about engaging. 299 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 1: But I think there's really no place for diplomacy right 300 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,880 Speaker 1: now the way both sides are dug in on this 301 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: but when we look at the participation of the US 302 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 1: and NATAL and in the war, it's it's profound the 303 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 1: Ukraine would not last, frankly, if it was not for 304 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: the economic support, the military support provided by the US 305 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: and by its NATO partners. The Ukrainians have been exceptionally brave, 306 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,159 Speaker 1: exceptionally good at fighting back against this Russian invasion. And 307 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: whatever we may say about the causes of this, this 308 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: was a brutal invasion that has resulted in already it's 309 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 1: turning out hundreds of thousands of lives lost. So we 310 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 1: do have to condemn that. What I am worried about 311 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,640 Speaker 1: is at the next level, what would cause this war 312 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,159 Speaker 1: to expand your as you point out, into something with 313 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: a nuclear component, or expand into Europe, or become a 314 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: full on boots on the ground war between Russia and NATO. 315 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: I think there's been so much that's happened over the 316 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 1: past year, so many changes and the way we look 317 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 1: at this war, so many lines that have supposedly been 318 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 1: drawn about levels of support and so on, that it's 319 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: really hard to predict what would be the catalyst for 320 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 1: this to become an expanded war. I'm very worried about 321 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: things like possible use of chemical and biological weapons, or 322 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: just by mistake even or hitting a nuclear power plant 323 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 1: with shells and there's a leakage of radiation, kind of 324 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,919 Speaker 1: a Chernobyl scenario. And and I've been to Chernobyl, and 325 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 1: I certainly do not want to see something like that 326 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 1: ever again. But the Russians have basically set a few 327 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: times some red lines that they have and it's it's 328 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: it's almost like a dance now, it's it's or the 329 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 1: dance of a thousand veils or a Kabuki dance, where 330 00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: each time another layer is removed, it's removed to the 331 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 1: next level. Will it be armored fighting vehicles will be 332 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: in main battle tanks, there will be a missiles of 333 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 1: a certain range that can reach Russia proper, And it's 334 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: hard to even define what that is. Would it be 335 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 1: the presence of advisors and assistance on the ground, for example, 336 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 1: and firing artillery or targeting or something like that. I 337 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 1: personally don't think the Russians would allow this to go 338 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 1: to that level unless they felt that their sovereignty was 339 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: in danger. I think of Ukrainian troops were heading for Sevastopol, 340 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 1: for example, then almost anything would be possible. I think 341 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 1: of long range Ukrainian missiles hit major cities deep inside 342 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:19,359 Speaker 1: of Russia. Anything would be possible. I worry also on 343 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 1: the other side about for example, Poland is deeply worried 344 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: about this, and Poland has really been out in front 345 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 1: in supporting the Ukrainians, both diplomatically and in terms of 346 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: material support and rhetoric. But right now, for this to 347 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: go to the next level, I don't think we're there yet. 348 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 1: But I don't know how this ends. I don't know 349 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 1: what victory looks like for either side at this point, 350 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 1: and that's the part that I find most troubling. You 351 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: mentioned the importance of oligarchs in post Soviet Russia. Can 352 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 1: you talk to us a little bit more about what 353 00:20:55,640 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 1: Putin's domestic support looks like at the moment, both from 354 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 1: these sort of oligarchic slash political class and also from 355 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: average people on the ground. I guess another this is 356 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 1: my way of diplomatically asking you what we're supposed to 357 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 1: make of all these people falling out of windows and 358 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 1: such forth. Well, there's certainly been plenty of that, and uh, 359 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: and the Russian state historically has never shied away from 360 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 1: pushing people out of windows or impaling them or anything, 361 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 1: depending on how far back we go in history. The oligarchs, 362 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 1: I think, is an interesting question. The oligarchs, when when 363 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 1: they came in and just basically ceased, They just stole everything, 364 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:40,360 Speaker 1: created this kleptocracy in Russia. They acquired a great deal 365 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 1: of power, and Putin was really against that, and he 366 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: told them he was against it, and he told them, 367 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 1: for example, if you're a Betzovsky or you're in a 368 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 1: Bramavitch or whatever, we're going to deal with you in 369 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: a certain way. And in some cases that meant that 370 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 1: they died. In some cases that meant that they went abroad. 371 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 1: In some cases that meant that they lost their their holdings. 372 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: We revel in watching these ridiculous yachts of Russian oligarchs 373 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 1: being seized in Italy or along the French riviera. I mean, 374 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 1: it's it's it's it's a great feeling to see that. 375 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: But the oligarchs are really not the key here. In fact, 376 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 1: if Putin had his way, many of the oligarchs would 377 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: lose all of their money and would and would go 378 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: into immigration. He doesn't like them, he doesn't bit what 379 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: they stand for. Particularly if they're not one hundred percent 380 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 1: behind his war effort. More important are these the Siloviki, 381 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,520 Speaker 1: these power people that he has, many of whom were 382 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 1: ex governors, ex ministers, people who grew up with Putin 383 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: and helped him along the way and supported him along 384 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,719 Speaker 1: the way. And I I think more about them, And frankly, 385 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 1: the more sanctions are placed on people like that, the 386 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: more they revel with it. They go to the dodga, 387 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 1: they have a few glasses of vodka and they say, ah, 388 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 1: I was sit with sanctions today, and they go me too, 389 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 1: and that they actually think of that as a kind 390 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 1: of a badge of honor in terms of support for Putin. 391 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: Very very interesting dynamics here. You remember at the beginning 392 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 1: of the war, when when when Russians were worried about 393 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 1: being called up, and there was this exodus of young 394 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 1: intelligent Russian people, everything from computer programmers to people from 395 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 1: different walks of life that that didn't buy into the 396 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 1: whole Russian status model just left. They left. They lined 397 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 1: up at the borders, whether they wanted to Norway, whether 398 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 1: they flew out in business class, or whether they went 399 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 1: to Poland or Georgia, and they left and I think 400 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 1: President Prutin said goodbye, see you later, don't come back. 401 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 1: What's yours is ours now, And I think what we're 402 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 1: left with there is a surprisingly hom a genious level 403 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 1: of support for Putin in the country. Not everybody, needless 404 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 1: to say, but your average guy in Siberia, your average 405 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 1: guy who works in a factory, for example, is looking 406 00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 1: at this war and looking at the rhetoric on Usian 407 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:05,639 Speaker 1: social media and Russian news and starting to think maybe 408 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 1: he was right, Maybe the West is trying to destroy us, 409 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 1: maybe Russians are being mistreated abroad. And and I would 410 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,680 Speaker 1: say in this context that I find something very alarming 411 00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 1: and unnecessary in the way this war is being reported. 412 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 1: When you listen to most of the Western press, the 413 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 1: words that are used are fulled with contempt, derision, hatred, 414 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: even rejection of culture, art, music, history, language, sports. I 415 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 1: found myself on YouTube looking at at at a gaming 416 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,160 Speaker 1: show where there's a there's a new game out called 417 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: Metro Exodus, which is really cool, but it's Russian, and 418 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 1: I'm like, wow, I guess you can't. You don't really 419 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 1: want to buy that anymore, that that would not be 420 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 1: patriotic if you bought that I would be a little 421 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,919 Speaker 1: bit more worried about, you know, Swan Lake, Shaikovsky, uh 422 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 1: Pushkin and so on. I don't think this is necessary, 423 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 1: and I think it strengthens Putent domestically rather than weakens. 424 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 1: And the Russians are doing enough things that are bad 425 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: that the reporting doesn't have to be one animosity towards 426 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 1: the Russian state. Every attack is not a massacre of civilians. 427 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 1: Every allegation of a war crime is not necessarily true 428 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 1: until it's researched correctly. And I think it's backfire is 429 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: not only in the Russian population, but also I dare say, 430 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 1: in the global South. And I spend a lot of 431 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 1: time following social media in the global South. So I 432 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 1: think in a roundabout way, i've i've I've come at 433 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: your answer, but let me know if I have you 434 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 1: basically took to my next question out of my mouth. 435 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: Because when the invasion first happened, there were a lot 436 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: of people who are pretty impressed by the Biden administration's 437 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 1: ability to sort of corral a wide degree of global 438 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,400 Speaker 1: support against Russia and then effect that in the sanctions. 439 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,400 Speaker 1: But even at the time, you know, there were clearly 440 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: big countries heavily populated countries that never really like took 441 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: US side, never took a stance on the invasion, particularly 442 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,639 Speaker 1: across the global South. But really, you know, outside I 443 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 1: believe of the U. S and Europe, perceptions of the 444 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,199 Speaker 1: war are far more scattered and less unified than they 445 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,720 Speaker 1: are in the US and Europe. And so I'm curious 446 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 1: sort of like what the trajectory has been, you know, 447 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 1: in places like India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Israel and 448 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,679 Speaker 1: so forth. And then I guess this sort of like 449 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,640 Speaker 1: a two part question. Has has the ambivalence of these 450 00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 1: countries to condemn Russia been crucial? And how helpful has 451 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:45,199 Speaker 1: that been still maintaining markets for imports and exports to 452 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 1: prevent the sort of complete domestic collapse of the Russian economy. Yeah, 453 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 1: this is the this is the thing I think about 454 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 1: a great deal, and I look immediately at the bricks 455 00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 1: nations obviously, of what Russia is one of them, because 456 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 1: all Russia, India, China, South Africa that as we speak, 457 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 1: the Russians have been doing naval exercises with South Africa, 458 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 1: and if we extend into Africa even further, there the 459 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 1: Russians just uh, it's almost complete, have an agreement now 460 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,040 Speaker 1: with Sudan to make a naval base on the Red Sea, 461 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 1: and Wagner Group is now in Mali where the French 462 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 1: have left. So if we expand our our scope from 463 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 1: the Bricks to this great global South, including especially Africa, 464 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: the Middle East, parts of Asia, which I think are 465 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,160 Speaker 1: more concerned with the China issue right now, but even 466 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,959 Speaker 1: South America like Brazil and Mexico, and states obviously like 467 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:39,120 Speaker 1: Nicaragua and Bolivia and and others that have a propensity 468 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 1: and Cuba that a propensity towards Russia. We're seeing a 469 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,119 Speaker 1: very mixed bag. And I find this of arming. I 470 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 1: find it disturbing again going back to the thesis that we, 471 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: regardless of what the causes were, the fault were for 472 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 1: this war. And obviously a great deal of this is 473 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 1: on the Russians, but certainly not all of it. What 474 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 1: has happened in the Global South is they look at 475 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: this through a different prism then the United States, Canada, Europe, 476 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 1: the developed West. They are looking at this from a 477 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 1: I think a prism of history in which they look 478 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,879 Speaker 1: kind of a scance at some of the activities of 479 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,760 Speaker 1: what they might have called back in the day, an 480 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:22,360 Speaker 1: imperialist nation, a colonial nation, something like that. And it 481 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 1: never fails to alarm me when I see even on YouTube, 482 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,440 Speaker 1: but certainly in telegram, certainly on social media, and even 483 00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 1: in mainstream news in places like once you mentioned Joe, India, China, Brazil, 484 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, the Emirates, Mexico, and throughout 485 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 1: Sub Saharan Africa. You see a narrative that in some 486 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 1: cases it is very forgiving of the Russian conduct of 487 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:54,320 Speaker 1: the war, but in other cases actually groating over each 488 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 1: victory that the Russians have, gloating over each deployment of 489 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 1: a new Russian web, and gloating over this ability of 490 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 1: the Russians too counteract natal as a body. So I 491 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 1: think we've been enormously effective in terms of the developed West, 492 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 1: and I think less so in terms of the global South. 493 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 1: And that leads to the second part of your question 494 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,680 Speaker 1: about the the economic impact. And I think this really 495 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 1: has confounded everyone, and we we can go in at 496 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: some point if you wanted to sanctions and asset for 497 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:32,360 Speaker 1: reasons at all, but we have accelerated a trend where 498 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 1: Russia really wanted to do an Asia pivot or what 499 00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: I would even call a global self pivot, a pivot 500 00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 1: away from Europe, and they've been remarkably successful at it. 501 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,880 Speaker 1: The data is all bad. We can't trust any of 502 00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 1: the data, I think on natural gas and oil exports, commodities, diamonds, 503 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,800 Speaker 1: anything like that, lithium for example, a gold, silver. But 504 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 1: it is quite clear that the natural gas is flowing 505 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: in to China through power of Siberia and eventually the 506 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 1: power of Siberia to pipeline tankers around the world. Some legally, 507 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,320 Speaker 1: some illegally are moving Russian crew because there's just too 508 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 1: much money to be made on it at the prices 509 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 1: it's being sold and resold at. And I think even 510 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: in Europe you're seeing in the United States you're seeing 511 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 1: some kind of deceptive things in terms of loyal products 512 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 1: at all, and as to how they're moved around and 513 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 1: what counts as Russian loyal what doesn't count as loyal 514 00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,240 Speaker 1: that's gone through various levels of refining or processing. So 515 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 1: I think this is exacerbated a a an economic current 516 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 1: that the Russians kind of wanted to do anyhow, at 517 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:44,600 Speaker 1: some point. I also fear that some of the nations 518 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 1: in the in the sort of the bricks environment, including 519 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,720 Speaker 1: countries that are lining up now to join bricks, like 520 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, like Algeria, perhaps like Argentina and Brazil. Argentina 521 00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 1: at some point you're seeing them look for alternatives to 522 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 1: a US dominated world economy, to a dollar dominant denominated economy, 523 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:11,479 Speaker 1: to an economy where the swift system and international banking, 524 00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 1: which is dominated by American banks is really the only 525 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 1: way of getting two settlements where maritime insurance for tankers 526 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:24,480 Speaker 1: and containers are controlled by United States interests. And I 527 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,960 Speaker 1: find this disturbing because I think we need to promote 528 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:34,320 Speaker 1: our model of liberal capitalism, of global markets, of free markets, 529 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 1: and I think the war might be having a somewhat 530 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,840 Speaker 1: perverse effect on that. You know, you mentioned oil and 531 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 1: gas still flowing and emanating from Russia. Can you talk 532 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 1: to us a little bit more about the role of 533 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:51,719 Speaker 1: those commodities in this conflict, or how different do you 534 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 1: think this would have been if Russia wasn't a major 535 00:31:56,120 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 1: world supplier of natural gas. I think right now Russia 536 00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 1: is still and has been for a long time, you know, 537 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 1: largely reliant on its hydrocarbonate exports, and also it's it's 538 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:12,120 Speaker 1: it's raw materials and mineral exports and such. Obviously they 539 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 1: export a variety of things, but I think they rely 540 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 1: very heavily on this. I think when the Europeans and 541 00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 1: and did this quite brilliantly. I watched how quickly the 542 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 1: Germans put an L n G terminal in, for example, 543 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: in the Baltic and record time they built a terminal 544 00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 1: to bring imports from the US. But when I think 545 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 1: when when the Russians started to lose a great deal 546 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 1: of this, especially the natural gas side into Europe, I 547 00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,000 Speaker 1: think this hurt them. I think it hurt them considerably. 548 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: I think they had considered this as a possibility, uh 549 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 1: the old lords dream Nords dream too, is as a 550 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,440 Speaker 1: whole mother can of worms that could be talked about. 551 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,400 Speaker 1: But I think they had already started to set up 552 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 1: alternatives in terms of the numerous pipelines that go into Europe, 553 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,959 Speaker 1: go into the Middle East. They're talking going across Iran 554 00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 1: now for example, and go into China. So I think 555 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,800 Speaker 1: they were able to recover a lot of that, and 556 00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 1: that is the fuel that keeps their military industry going, 557 00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: That is the fuel that keeps them able to fuel 558 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,200 Speaker 1: literally fuel that keeps them able to feed their people, 559 00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: for example, and I think they've done much better than 560 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 1: we thought they did, but I think the sanctions have 561 00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 1: caused some very big systemic problems for them, whether it's 562 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,800 Speaker 1: in the aviation industry and the high tech industry and 563 00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,200 Speaker 1: access to certain types of products and services. You know, 564 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 1: it's funny. You can you can watch on YouTube Russians 565 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:39,840 Speaker 1: going to supermarkets and you don't know if these are 566 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 1: Potemkin villages that are selected for that reason. I suspect 567 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 1: they are not. But the stories are full, the shelves 568 00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 1: are full, and maybe the product mixes a little different. 569 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,120 Speaker 1: Maybe they're complaining that the box the cardboard boxes are 570 00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:56,240 Speaker 1: painted white instead of multicolor because of the lack of dyes. 571 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: But you see, you see food from Turkey, from Iran, 572 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 1: from Asia of Russian production. Russia is a bread basket 573 00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,880 Speaker 1: and always has been, so I think they're doing reasonably 574 00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 1: well on that. But the pain is certainly happening, and 575 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,839 Speaker 1: over time it's really difficult to predict how bad the 576 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,520 Speaker 1: pain will be with inside of Russia. And I think 577 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,720 Speaker 1: this is part of the gamble that that we're taking 578 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 1: right now. Talk about that a little bit further. I mean, 579 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 1: I'm I'm still curious, you know, going back to one 580 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,920 Speaker 1: of your first answers about the domestic support, and you 581 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,360 Speaker 1: know you mentioned a lot of sort of young talented 582 00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,040 Speaker 1: people sort of got on got on the next flight 583 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,360 Speaker 1: as soon as this war started. But obviously, you know 584 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:42,600 Speaker 1: there's still a large middle class or the Russian middle class, 585 00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:45,879 Speaker 1: like in the major cities around Moscow, etcetera. How has 586 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,600 Speaker 1: the sanctions are just the economic effects or the war 587 00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,480 Speaker 1: sort of affect date their day to day life so 588 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 1: best as you can tell, And what are the risks 589 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:59,879 Speaker 1: to putin if this sort of ongoing degradation of sort 590 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:04,000 Speaker 1: normal life continues and continues to worsen, because again, wars 591 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 1: are extremely costly for obvious reasons. Yeah, I think that. 592 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:12,320 Speaker 1: I think at certain levels Russians, uh certainly are are suffering. 593 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,759 Speaker 1: When you look at the major cities like St. Petersburg 594 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,640 Speaker 1: and Moscow, I think it goes much further than your 595 00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 1: inability to get a Gucci bag, for example, or to 596 00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,759 Speaker 1: have a Marks and Spencer. I think there are systemic 597 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,719 Speaker 1: things that are happening. I think the inflation is is 598 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,160 Speaker 1: not not too terrible. I think the product mixes not 599 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,759 Speaker 1: too terrible. I think people would like to have better 600 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 1: access to cars. They'd like to be sure that the 601 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,279 Speaker 1: aircraft are going to fly on are safe and are 602 00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:41,839 Speaker 1: being maintained. But you know, Russians historically are are used 603 00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:44,200 Speaker 1: to a bit of pain. I think of this is 604 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,720 Speaker 1: a different era, of course, this is a different global 605 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 1: error where people can see on social media how others live. 606 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,799 Speaker 1: But this is a country that lives through the nine 607 00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,400 Speaker 1: hundred days of Lennon Grad. This is a country that 608 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 1: lived through Napoleon actually taking and burning Moscow. This is 609 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 1: a tree that lost heaven knows how many twenty million, 610 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:06,320 Speaker 1: forty million, some due to their own murderous regime in 611 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:10,239 Speaker 1: World War two. So I think there is ability to 612 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,279 Speaker 1: endure a lot of this. And one of the things 613 00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,759 Speaker 1: Putin is doing is he is paying the soldiers more. 614 00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:19,000 Speaker 1: He's bringing contract soldiers aboard. He's paying death benefits that 615 00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,759 Speaker 1: may seem very little to us, but are actually enough 616 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 1: to feed a family for a couple of years sometimes 617 00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:26,919 Speaker 1: for people who are are are killed in the war. 618 00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,399 Speaker 1: And there are many of those, and there are many 619 00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:32,759 Speaker 1: people that are very angry about this. The mothers of 620 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,239 Speaker 1: of of the victims of the war but you know 621 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,439 Speaker 1: it's funny. I was watching on YouTube a while back. 622 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:41,279 Speaker 1: There's a charming series about Yakutia, the coldest place on earth, 623 00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,600 Speaker 1: with the temperatures at minus seventy, and they show the 624 00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:48,160 Speaker 1: Yakutsu Russians. They all speak Russian and they're out there 625 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 1: in minus seventy just trying to get to the bathroom 626 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,160 Speaker 1: without freezing to death, or get to the rivers. They 627 00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 1: can drill a hole and get some fish out without 628 00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:57,719 Speaker 1: freezing to death. And I laughed at one point one 629 00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,400 Speaker 1: of our officials that there the Russians aren't winter east 630 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,759 Speaker 1: for the war, and I said, oh my god, there 631 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:06,080 Speaker 1: are yakut mortar crews right now that the Russians are 632 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,200 Speaker 1: showing on their social media in action. And for them 633 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,279 Speaker 1: this is like, wow, it's pretty warm here, this is 634 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 1: pretty good weather here. We maybe we should stay here 635 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,160 Speaker 1: rather than going back to Yakutya, except that they love it. 636 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:22,200 Speaker 1: So yes, there is suffering, but on another level, the 637 00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:26,000 Speaker 1: suffering is understood and it's a part of the Russian condition. 638 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 1: And what we have to do is find that balance 639 00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,360 Speaker 1: between the economic suffering that would cause something to happen 640 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:35,960 Speaker 1: there or derail the Russian war. Machine, but not to 641 00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,759 Speaker 1: cause such suffering that the people who listen to the 642 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,760 Speaker 1: Russian propaganda and this is an information war, say again 643 00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,920 Speaker 1: he was right. They really are trying to break us 644 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,600 Speaker 1: up as a country. Why would they want to destroy 645 00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:56,040 Speaker 1: my ability in Central Asia or in Eastern Siberia or 646 00:37:56,120 --> 00:38:00,480 Speaker 1: in ar Kanels to eat and to get electricity and 647 00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,480 Speaker 1: warmth and the things that we're used to in life. 648 00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:05,960 Speaker 1: And I think we have to be very careful about 649 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:11,279 Speaker 1: this because this plays into, I think a Russian way 650 00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:31,360 Speaker 1: of thinking about life that has existed for centuries. You know, 651 00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,759 Speaker 1: I realized when I was doing your intro and summarizing 652 00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,520 Speaker 1: your career, I couldn't include everything. And there's one important 653 00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:39,880 Speaker 1: thing I left out, which was that you were a 654 00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,920 Speaker 1: director of the Center for Cyber Intelligence at the CIA, 655 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,400 Speaker 1: and so we have to ask you. We would be 656 00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,399 Speaker 1: remiss not to ask you what your take is on 657 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:54,040 Speaker 1: the cyber component of this particular conflict, because of course 658 00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,040 Speaker 1: we have had, you know, various things that have happened 659 00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:01,480 Speaker 1: over the past twelve months, certain explosions and things shutting down, 660 00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:05,040 Speaker 1: but it's never exactly clear whether or not there is 661 00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:08,880 Speaker 1: a cyber component behind them. Yeah, I'm I'm actually a 662 00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:13,479 Speaker 1: bit surprised at the minimal level of cyber activity we've 663 00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,319 Speaker 1: seen from the Russian side. Now, there's no doubt, and 664 00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,919 Speaker 1: they've been doing it for many years. They're doing reconnaissance 665 00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:25,280 Speaker 1: in our infrastructure, our electrical utilities are nuclear power plants 666 00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,080 Speaker 1: and so on, and needless to say, doing everything they 667 00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:33,239 Speaker 1: can to survey defense industry and government institutions. But no, 668 00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:37,160 Speaker 1: there has not been, for example, a attack on April 669 00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:40,719 Speaker 1: fourteen on the I R s imagine shutting down the 670 00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:44,200 Speaker 1: United States. There has not been an Internet of Things 671 00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,799 Speaker 1: attack on the air conditioning systems at the Pentagon Saturday night, 672 00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:52,279 Speaker 1: at midnight in August we've seen. I think you might 673 00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,640 Speaker 1: be giving them ideas. Now I don't think I have 674 00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,680 Speaker 1: to give them any ideas that these are, but I 675 00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,840 Speaker 1: will stop using examples in that case. They're they're The 676 00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:05,600 Speaker 1: Russians have always used patriotic actor hackers of fellow travelers 677 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:09,800 Speaker 1: and such. Sometimes it's done directly from Russian intelligence. Sometimes 678 00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:13,600 Speaker 1: it's gone through proxies and cutouts and contractors. And again 679 00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,600 Speaker 1: this this small army of patriotic hackers, some of whom 680 00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:21,000 Speaker 1: have left the country to go make money doing cyber 681 00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:24,680 Speaker 1: work and information work outside of Russian and places where 682 00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,560 Speaker 1: they can earn a living. There was actually a report 683 00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,160 Speaker 1: in social and Russian social media last night that a 684 00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:34,600 Speaker 1: cyber attack had begun by these fellow travelers. I haven't 685 00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:38,200 Speaker 1: seen any indication of that yet. I think this is 686 00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:41,399 Speaker 1: very alarming to both sides. There are things that could 687 00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:45,319 Speaker 1: be done to the backbone of the Internet. People think 688 00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,319 Speaker 1: of the Internet as being in the ether somehow, when 689 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,920 Speaker 1: it's actually largely dependent on fiber cables and it's kind 690 00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,320 Speaker 1: of back and forth between the Russians and the Americans 691 00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,120 Speaker 1: has been going on for a long time on this. 692 00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:00,680 Speaker 1: I would really fear that if things get really bad 693 00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:04,280 Speaker 1: for the Russians or they see this as a means 694 00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,880 Speaker 1: of stopping arms from getting to Ukraine, that they would 695 00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,520 Speaker 1: do such an attack, then there would be a retaliation. 696 00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:14,280 Speaker 1: And the US has become infinitely more capable over time 697 00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,520 Speaker 1: and made even places like Estonia, for example, our our 698 00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,080 Speaker 1: leaders in this area. I would worry about that, and 699 00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:26,040 Speaker 1: it's really mostly been at the tactical levels, and when 700 00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:28,120 Speaker 1: we talk about cyber of course we can't help but 701 00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:32,360 Speaker 1: mention Elon Musk. Elon Musk, who with Starlink was actually 702 00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,000 Speaker 1: one of the saviors of Ukraine early in the war, 703 00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,960 Speaker 1: and now he's having second thoughts about the use of 704 00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:43,360 Speaker 1: starlink for drone operations, for offensive drone operations again with 705 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,640 Speaker 1: the fear that perhaps this will escalate the war. So 706 00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,480 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of things we don't know yet. 707 00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,479 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of very serious preparations going 708 00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:56,640 Speaker 1: on on both sides. But I'm just surprised we haven't 709 00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:00,640 Speaker 1: seen more yet. We've talked a lot, obviously out the 710 00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:03,840 Speaker 1: effect that this war has had on Russian citizens, the 711 00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:07,640 Speaker 1: support for Putin among those who are in Russia. We 712 00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:13,120 Speaker 1: haven't talked about the equivalent in Ukraine. Ukrainians have obviously, 713 00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:17,280 Speaker 1: you know, seeing their economy wrecked, They're experiencing power outages, 714 00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:21,360 Speaker 1: all kinds of devastations, famined obviously the incur incursion on 715 00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:25,360 Speaker 1: their sovereignty. What is the effect that this is having 716 00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:28,960 Speaker 1: in terms of support for Zelensky and the domestic political 717 00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,400 Speaker 1: trajectory in Ukraine, Because we talked about the West and Russia, 718 00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:35,000 Speaker 1: but can't leave out like the you know, the the 719 00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:38,400 Speaker 1: key other central actor here. Yeah, I think again we 720 00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,440 Speaker 1: have we have to go back to the original thesis 721 00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:44,560 Speaker 1: that It is absolutely amazing and heartening that the the 722 00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:49,320 Speaker 1: level of resolve of the Ukrainian people, they've suffered catastrophic 723 00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,200 Speaker 1: personnel losses, that the two numbers of which are we 724 00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:55,279 Speaker 1: may never know, but are coming out and are are 725 00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,279 Speaker 1: much larger than than we we thought they were. We've 726 00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,640 Speaker 1: seen exactly the kind of economic destruction that you've talked 727 00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:06,080 Speaker 1: about where the Russians they are engaged in economic warfare. 728 00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:09,480 Speaker 1: They are engaged in a classic type of economic warfare 729 00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,399 Speaker 1: that I would call old school that has always been 730 00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,840 Speaker 1: done in war, which is destroying infrastructure which is of 731 00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:20,399 Speaker 1: military value, electrical transmission, the ability of trains to bring 732 00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:23,480 Speaker 1: troops and equipment to the front, and so on. Economic 733 00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:26,440 Speaker 1: warfare is nothing new. Take of the Union blockades of 734 00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:30,080 Speaker 1: the South and the Civil war, understricted submarine warfare in 735 00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,239 Speaker 1: World War One, even strategic bombing in World War Two 736 00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:36,080 Speaker 1: where we try to take out all the German factories. 737 00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,360 Speaker 1: But you're right, this has a huge impact on the 738 00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:45,279 Speaker 1: Ukrainian economy and eventually it becomes a question of persistence. Now, 739 00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:49,400 Speaker 1: bearing in mind that a number of Ukrainians millions have left, 740 00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,360 Speaker 1: some will not come back, some are now in Poland. 741 00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:54,000 Speaker 1: If it. There's about a million and a half there 742 00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:56,760 Speaker 1: now in Germany and in other parts of the world. 743 00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,600 Speaker 1: Some have come back when they saw that the war 744 00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:01,600 Speaker 1: was angle a little better than they thought it would, 745 00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:04,719 Speaker 1: and they saw the bravery of the Ukrainian leadership and 746 00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:08,720 Speaker 1: the Ukrainian army. But eventually you reach a point where 747 00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:12,279 Speaker 1: the economy is moribund, but there is no economy. It 748 00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:17,800 Speaker 1: becomes a state completely dependent on the West, on financial support, 749 00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:22,560 Speaker 1: on donations, not even to think about the eventual reconstruction period. 750 00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:24,920 Speaker 1: And I think one of the smartest things President Zelensky 751 00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:27,239 Speaker 1: said was he made it very clear to Black Rock 752 00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:30,160 Speaker 1: and Goldman, Sachs and City Group and so on. He goes, 753 00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,120 Speaker 1: you are very welcome here. You will make money here 754 00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:36,480 Speaker 1: in the reconstruction period. And that's certainly a good argument 755 00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:39,680 Speaker 1: for continued support, because at the end of the day, 756 00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:44,560 Speaker 1: war comes down to money as well as power and 757 00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:48,920 Speaker 1: geopolitical issues. I think the issue of domestic support for 758 00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:52,000 Speaker 1: Zolenski is fastening. Zolensky is a rock star in the 759 00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:56,440 Speaker 1: West Okay. He can appear in really almost any format, 760 00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,400 Speaker 1: and he is welcomed. He has his he has his brand, 761 00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,839 Speaker 1: his way of dressing, his way of speaking, and he's 762 00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:03,799 Speaker 1: quite good at it, and I think he's been very 763 00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:07,319 Speaker 1: effective in the Westmond That very interesting. What's happening though 764 00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:11,799 Speaker 1: back in Kiev? Now, well, first we lost they lost 765 00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,120 Speaker 1: a helicopter with the entire Interior Ministry leadership on it, 766 00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:18,480 Speaker 1: which I think was a painful accident. But in the 767 00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:21,760 Speaker 1: same time frame, you saw quite a number of senior 768 00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,640 Speaker 1: officials being fired, being forced to resign, and I mean dozens, 769 00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:29,840 Speaker 1: and this includes you know, you're the Defense Minister, d Estovich, 770 00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:33,759 Speaker 1: who is his his primary advisor, a number of governors, 771 00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:36,600 Speaker 1: a number of senior officials in different areas, and now 772 00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,239 Speaker 1: you have the head of the Ukrainian Intelligence Service is 773 00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:42,280 Speaker 1: going to take over the Defense ministry. And you've seen 774 00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:47,120 Speaker 1: the mayor of Kiev sort of clash with President Zelenski 775 00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:49,960 Speaker 1: over the approach to the war and who's doing enough 776 00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:53,759 Speaker 1: and who's not doing enough. So it's very interesting to 777 00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,640 Speaker 1: watch the Russian reaction to these figures too, and the 778 00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,600 Speaker 1: Russians are are again it's a propaganda war and their 779 00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,920 Speaker 1: terror a lot of what they say, they call Zalenski 780 00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:05,160 Speaker 1: the clown, that's their name for him. They have a 781 00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,319 Speaker 1: number of epithets that they use. They don't say this 782 00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:11,439 Speaker 1: about Lusoni, the head of the General staff. They say 783 00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:13,640 Speaker 1: this is a final officer who we respect and who 784 00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:16,920 Speaker 1: has really given us a body knows. So my question 785 00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:20,320 Speaker 1: is where is President Zelenski right now? We know where 786 00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:22,480 Speaker 1: he is in terms of the west. Of that, there 787 00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:25,719 Speaker 1: can be a little question at home. I think he's 788 00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:28,680 Speaker 1: still doing enormously well because he is the face of 789 00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:31,279 Speaker 1: the war. But I think in a country where we 790 00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:34,480 Speaker 1: have to admit there is a deep level of corruption, 791 00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:38,160 Speaker 1: and like in any political system, there is in fighting, 792 00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:41,239 Speaker 1: there is a desire for power, there are resentments, there 793 00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:45,200 Speaker 1: are jealousies. We've seen a number of changes recently that 794 00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,680 Speaker 1: lead us to question where is this going in terms 795 00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,279 Speaker 1: of domestic politics, and what would the Russians do to 796 00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:56,360 Speaker 1: try to exacerbate this or take advantage of it. I 797 00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:59,440 Speaker 1: just have one more question, and it's, you know, one 798 00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,399 Speaker 1: of those things trying to sum up the whole conversation. 799 00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:06,560 Speaker 1: But what's been the most surprising to you about the 800 00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:12,400 Speaker 1: past twelve months. I think the difficulty of predictions again 801 00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:14,600 Speaker 1: and I started with that and I'll end with that 802 00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:18,560 Speaker 1: has has really confounded most observers in this from whether 803 00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:21,560 Speaker 1: the war would happen to how quickly it would be resolved. 804 00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:24,040 Speaker 1: And we're at a point now where we may be 805 00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:27,319 Speaker 1: looking like we're pretty Goes from the Wagner Group says, well, 806 00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,919 Speaker 1: it might take us two years to recover the rest 807 00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:33,799 Speaker 1: of the dun Bas. I think what surprised me, and 808 00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:37,040 Speaker 1: I think what surprised a lot of observers is we 809 00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:39,640 Speaker 1: watched as this war began, and we saw that the 810 00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:43,480 Speaker 1: Javelin missiles and the Stinger missiles, and the intelligence support 811 00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:46,160 Speaker 1: and law and now we're seeing that this is all 812 00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:50,160 Speaker 1: terribly important, the drone war, the aerial war, the intelligence war. 813 00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:54,319 Speaker 1: But we're seeing World War One type trench systems. We're 814 00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:58,520 Speaker 1: seeing the Russians bring out artillery pieces literally from World 815 00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:04,640 Speaker 1: War Two and just bombarding the front continuously, continuously, continuously 816 00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:08,920 Speaker 1: to try to break down the Ukrainian resistance. And I 817 00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:11,480 Speaker 1: think this new plan of bringing in tanks, you know, 818 00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:16,000 Speaker 1: whether it's American Abrams tanks or Challengers or Leopard twos 819 00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:19,480 Speaker 1: or less effectively, Leopard ones, I think this will make 820 00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,879 Speaker 1: a difference. But we're seeing a kind of war that 821 00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:26,720 Speaker 1: I think people thought had somehow gone away in World 822 00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:29,400 Speaker 1: War Two and we're seeing it back and this is 823 00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:32,600 Speaker 1: the Russian way of war. And when you see the 824 00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,600 Speaker 1: Russian Chief of the General Staff got Auso, now taking 825 00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,640 Speaker 1: charge of the war, you see that they're looking at 826 00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:42,319 Speaker 1: this in a different way, and this has become a 827 00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:45,879 Speaker 1: slug fest. So I think that surprised me. Another thing 828 00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:48,960 Speaker 1: I think that that surprises and and and confounds me 829 00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,600 Speaker 1: again is on the information warfare. I think we're all 830 00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:56,560 Speaker 1: sides of kind of painted themselves into a corner that 831 00:48:56,680 --> 00:49:00,640 Speaker 1: they can't emerge from anymore. The United States can't walk 832 00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:04,719 Speaker 1: away from this, not after Afghanistan, not with the very 833 00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:09,000 Speaker 1: real need to defend the Ukrainians against a Russian invasion, 834 00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:13,040 Speaker 1: and the Russians can't walk away from areas that they 835 00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:16,520 Speaker 1: have formally annexed, whether or not this has been recognized 836 00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:21,160 Speaker 1: by the world. And I think that's the most confounding 837 00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:24,719 Speaker 1: part of this, in that the rhetoric of the information 838 00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:27,640 Speaker 1: warfare and also the level of the economic warfare here 839 00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:31,600 Speaker 1: has made it that I don't see anything in the 840 00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:34,319 Speaker 1: short term that will allow this to resolve itself. And 841 00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:36,759 Speaker 1: I fear you knows, as you and Joe said at 842 00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:38,520 Speaker 1: the beginning, that we may end up in kind of 843 00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:44,360 Speaker 1: a demilitarized zone um with conditions of ceasefire and peace. 844 00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:48,000 Speaker 1: But I don't think anyone can predict it. So that 845 00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:51,040 Speaker 1: is what has confounded me, and also just the inability 846 00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:55,040 Speaker 1: of anyone to correctly determine what would happen in this war. 847 00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:58,720 Speaker 1: Predictions are just so hard to make, all right, Robert 848 00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,440 Speaker 1: pap really the perfect odd lots of guests, Thank you 849 00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:03,200 Speaker 1: so much for coming on. We're gonna have to have 850 00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:05,520 Speaker 1: you back to talk about the history of the Russian 851 00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:08,160 Speaker 1: stock market. Just do an episode on if any of 852 00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:11,880 Speaker 1: your investment audience want to revive their investments in nineteenth 853 00:50:11,920 --> 00:50:15,840 Speaker 1: century securities. I've indexed these and given total return models 854 00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:19,040 Speaker 1: for them, and sadly, just just just as an opening, 855 00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:21,120 Speaker 1: as a final comment, I would say what I found 856 00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:24,040 Speaker 1: in that period after all that work was you really 857 00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:28,880 Speaker 1: did well with blue chips. Nothing ever changes, nothing ever changed. 858 00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,920 Speaker 1: So that was that conclusion. And thank you guys so 859 00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:36,640 Speaker 1: much for having me. It's been a lot of fun. 860 00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:54,000 Speaker 1: Thank you, Thanks Robert. That was great. So Joe, I 861 00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:57,880 Speaker 1: thought that was a fantastic summary of the past twelve 862 00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:00,600 Speaker 1: months or so. And to Robert's point, it is kind 863 00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,800 Speaker 1: of crazy when you think back to February of two 864 00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:08,240 Speaker 1: and what people were expecting in terms of a military conflict, Like, yes, 865 00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:11,360 Speaker 1: we have had drones, there are some very very advanced 866 00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:14,200 Speaker 1: missiles being used and things like that. But on the 867 00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:17,480 Speaker 1: other hand, you know, we're talking about Russian tanks from 868 00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:21,120 Speaker 1: World War one world War two rolling across the border. 869 00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:23,520 Speaker 1: And you know, even I'm thinking back to that episode 870 00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:26,840 Speaker 1: we did on wooden paletts, like the shortage of Russian 871 00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:30,440 Speaker 1: wooden pallets, it all seems very very old school in 872 00:51:30,520 --> 00:51:33,960 Speaker 1: terms of military technology. Yeah, you know, I think to 873 00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:38,080 Speaker 1: Robert's point about, you know, the let the inability of 874 00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:41,000 Speaker 1: people who try to predict these things to get anything 875 00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:43,400 Speaker 1: right has been really striking. And I do think, you know, 876 00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:46,880 Speaker 1: if you go back to last February Prime, most people 877 00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:50,640 Speaker 1: in their minds would have expected something maybe more akin 878 00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,120 Speaker 1: to the invasion of Crimea, which for the Russian was 879 00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:56,080 Speaker 1: kind of a cake walk. They walked in and they 880 00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,920 Speaker 1: took it, and probably putin roughly thought the same thing, 881 00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:01,040 Speaker 1: maybe it would be a little tough for and that 882 00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,319 Speaker 1: explains the sort of very poorly thought out state of 883 00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:08,160 Speaker 1: the invasion, the allowed invasion that proved to be very costly. 884 00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:11,719 Speaker 1: The different terms in this and then yes, the fact 885 00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:14,680 Speaker 1: that now a year later and we talk a lot 886 00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:17,880 Speaker 1: about these advanced weapons systems, but it's just this grind, 887 00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:23,680 Speaker 1: this trench warfare, horrible human losses persisting, and then this 888 00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,040 Speaker 1: question of like, okay, how long can either side take 889 00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:29,360 Speaker 1: It is absolutely just the sort of horrible state of 890 00:52:29,400 --> 00:52:33,120 Speaker 1: affairs going on right now. Well, the other thing that 891 00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:36,279 Speaker 1: I was thinking about and Robert spoke about was this 892 00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:41,040 Speaker 1: idea of the entrenching of positions and the fact that 893 00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:44,480 Speaker 1: people are you know, they seem to come up with 894 00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:48,440 Speaker 1: rigid demands that don't really allow for some sort of 895 00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:52,080 Speaker 1: compromise I mean, for obvious reasons on on certain sides. 896 00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:54,759 Speaker 1: But then what that tends to lead to, and this 897 00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:58,399 Speaker 1: kind of gets into his information warfare point as well, 898 00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:03,120 Speaker 1: is that you just got these hardenings of alliances and 899 00:53:03,280 --> 00:53:07,240 Speaker 1: of feelings. And I don't think that in the West 900 00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:11,560 Speaker 1: we are necessarily seeing the extent of that in other 901 00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:14,400 Speaker 1: places in the world, Yeah, No, I mean, I do 902 00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:17,560 Speaker 1: think that the reactions to this war outside of US 903 00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:20,000 Speaker 1: and Europe have sort of been undercovered, and we're probably 904 00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:24,640 Speaker 1: explanatory about the degree to which the Russian economy continued 905 00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:27,480 Speaker 1: to operate. But to this point about the hardening positions, 906 00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:31,200 Speaker 1: it does make you wonder whether that's sort of dotted 907 00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:36,960 Speaker 1: line war forever outcome is where it's going, because if 908 00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:39,880 Speaker 1: none of the sides can, if there's nothing on paper 909 00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:44,279 Speaker 1: that any side can theoretically except except right, so then 910 00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:47,600 Speaker 1: you have to sort of find some outcome that is 911 00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:51,680 Speaker 1: like de facto acceptance but never stated publicly, and so 912 00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:56,080 Speaker 1: you know, hopefully that is something more peaceful than we 913 00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:58,880 Speaker 1: have right now. But again it's hard to see, like, Okay, 914 00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:02,279 Speaker 1: what is that ultimate of ramp look like? Yeah, all right, 915 00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:05,439 Speaker 1: on that pessimistic note, shall we leave it there? Let's 916 00:54:05,520 --> 00:54:08,520 Speaker 1: leave it there? Okay. This has been another episode of 917 00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:11,400 Speaker 1: the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow 918 00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:14,440 Speaker 1: me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe wi 919 00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,120 Speaker 1: Isn't All. You can follow me on Twitter at the 920 00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:20,200 Speaker 1: Stalwart and for more of our special coverage on one 921 00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:23,160 Speaker 1: year of Russia's war in Ukraine, send up for the 922 00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:28,320 Speaker 1: Balance of Power newsletter that's at bloomberg dot com slash Newsletters. Meanwhile, 923 00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:32,840 Speaker 1: follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armand and Dash 924 00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:36,120 Speaker 1: Bennett at Dashbot and check out all of the podcasts 925 00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:39,640 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg at podcasts, and for more Old Lots content 926 00:54:39,719 --> 00:55:01,160 Speaker 1: go to bloomberg dot com slash outlets. Thanks for listening. 927 00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:09,960 Speaker 1: The Year to E