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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm kerin Moscow.
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Speaker 1: dock index futures are moving lower this morning, with snp
Speaker 1: EMNY futures down eleven points down, EVENY futures down seventy
Speaker 1: six and as DOCUMUNY futures down seventeen. The decks in
Speaker 1: Germany's down half percent ten Your treasury up seven thirty seconds,
Speaker 1: the yield one point nine three percent. Nimex screwed oil
Speaker 1: down two and a half per cent or ninety three
Speaker 1: cents at thirty six twenty five A barrel Comax gold
Speaker 1: is down eight tenths per cent or ten dollars twenty
Speaker 1: cents to twelve thirty four and nine d announced the
Speaker 1: euro a dollar ten ninety three, the n one thirteen
Speaker 1: point oh eight and Jeffreys Groups trading revenue tumbling a
Speaker 1: two percent in the fiscal first quarter, leading to the
Speaker 1: firm's first loss for the period since two thousand and eight.
Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Karen Moscow,
Speaker 1: thank you very much. Well, the President has made a
Speaker 1: decision about offshore drilling off the Atlantic coast that was
Speaker 1: due out today and the question was would he allow
Speaker 1: additional drilling leases off the coast of Virginia. He says no,
Speaker 1: he is going to bar Atlantic coast oil drilling. That's
Speaker 1: a reversal of earlier policies. However, time it's not clear
Speaker 1: exactly what impact that will have, given that we have
Speaker 1: more oil than we want right now. Anyway, Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's a debate and it's out there. I guess.
Speaker 1: It's an active president, very high in the ratings and
Speaker 1: as well. It's always good to have e j. Deone
Speaker 1: with us, of course, always writing up in the Washington Post.
Speaker 1: But he has trotted out a new book which he
Speaker 1: is perfectly timed the collapse of the Republican Party. Why
Speaker 1: the Right Went Wrong? Uh, e J Deone on conservatism
Speaker 1: and really a most interesting historical view of the path
Speaker 1: of the right. Always through the prism of Mr dion
Speaker 1: E j Um. I love the phrase Goldwater is um,
Speaker 1: which so much gets to the morphing of a U
Speaker 1: H two oh into where we are as we go
Speaker 1: to Florida and Ohio, this evening defined for us modern
Speaker 1: day Goldwater is um. I love that phrase. Well Goldwater Um,
Speaker 1: we remember him as a person, and he was a
Speaker 1: very warm, agreeable, uh person. He was, you know, candid
Speaker 1: and principle. So none of this is about gold Water
Speaker 1: the guy, and later in life he actually became more
Speaker 1: moderate himself. But to go back to the original Goldwater
Speaker 1: campaign in nine and the promises he made, um, these
Speaker 1: were all basically tea party sort of promises, will roll
Speaker 1: back government on every front. Uh. You know, he said,
Speaker 1: I don't mean to reform government because I intend to
Speaker 1: cut it. Uh. And that's where a large part of
Speaker 1: the Republican Party has moved. Um. I say if I
Speaker 1: thank you so much for what you said about the book. Um.
Speaker 1: I was very gratified by a review I just got
Speaker 1: from National Review, which is a conservative magazine, disagrees with
Speaker 1: the book, disagrees with me, and yet it argued the
Speaker 1: review by a guy called a scholar called. Henry Olsen
Speaker 1: argued that conservatives do have to come to terms of
Speaker 1: my argument that if they carry goldwater Ism on indefinitely,
Speaker 1: they will have a real problem because Goldwaterism doesn't speak
Speaker 1: It was an anemology that came out of nine. It
Speaker 1: doesn't speak to what the party needs to do. Now.
Speaker 1: In your ute, you used to be with al Hunt
Speaker 1: in the smoke filled rooms at these conventions. Can you
Speaker 1: fathom what Cleveland will be this summer? Smoke filled or not? Right,
Speaker 1: there'll be smoke free, smoke filled rooms. How do you
Speaker 1: how do you get your head around that? Um, it's
Speaker 1: it's almost impossible to fathom. We haven't had anything like
Speaker 1: this really since the fifties and in some ways since earlier.
Speaker 1: Other than that, because and it tells you something about
Speaker 1: the nature of the Trump candidacy. Normally, a candidate who
Speaker 1: built this kind of lead would be embraced by his
Speaker 1: party and the people leaders of the party would say,
Speaker 1: all right, let's get out of the way. This guy
Speaker 1: has secured the nomination. Let's end this thing. Uh. Instead,
Speaker 1: quite the opposite is happening, and large parts of the
Speaker 1: party are saying, no, let's keep this thing going, to
Speaker 1: keep him from getting the delegates. I think the Republicans,
Speaker 1: if things turn out the way they well looked to
Speaker 1: turn out now, which is, Trump ends up with a
Speaker 1: plurality but not a majority of delegates. Um, the party
Speaker 1: faces bad choices either way. They don't put Trump on
Speaker 1: the ticket, and you know, they don't nominate Trump, in
Speaker 1: which case you've got a mass rebellion of all the
Speaker 1: people bowl who voted for him. I just somehow can't
Speaker 1: see Trump accepting that lightly. Maybe he'll be gentle about it,
Speaker 1: but I don't think so. Um. Or on the other side, Um,
Speaker 1: they do nominate Trump and face substantial losses because he's
Speaker 1: clearly running well behind Hillary Clinton. He's got a huge
Speaker 1: disadvantage among women voters. Uh So it's gonna be very
Speaker 1: tough on the party. Is it over for the Republicans? Um?
Speaker 1: You know, I predicting the death of a major political
Speaker 1: party is always problematic. The Republicans split down the middle
Speaker 1: of nine twelve and actually William Howard Taffrey and third
Speaker 1: Teddy Roosevelt, the dissenting Republican rand second, running as a progressive.
Speaker 1: They recouped after losing the Roosevelt in thirty six Goldwater
Speaker 1: and sixty four loss. Uh So, I don't know if
Speaker 1: it's over. I think that the Republican Party as it
Speaker 1: now exists maybe over. I don't know, if you were
Speaker 1: lace the Republican Party. I think it's more likely that
Speaker 1: they go through a period of turmoil and become something
Speaker 1: a little different. Ron Forni of the Atlantic Group, you know,
Speaker 1: on Ultra of Mine, he has an interesting piece in
Speaker 1: the Atlantic today suggesting that what this campaign has done
Speaker 1: has defined deviancy down to use the old mony hand phrase,
Speaker 1: in such a way that politics may not recover for
Speaker 1: a very long time. Um again, I'm sometimes you have
Speaker 1: to hit bot to come up and so, um. I
Speaker 1: think that what we're going to have trouble we're covering
Speaker 1: from is not this campaign, although I agree with Ron
Speaker 1: that particularly on the Republican side, particularly after that debate
Speaker 1: in which we were talking about the size of body parts.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you have told me, I think I've
Speaker 1: said this before, that you know a group of presidential
Speaker 1: candidates were talking the way they were talking, I would
Speaker 1: have told you it's propaganda by enemies of the United States. Um.
Speaker 1: But I think the real question is can we govern
Speaker 1: ourselves after this election? UM. And you know, one of
Speaker 1: the problems, one of the reasons there is all this discontent,
Speaker 1: UM is because the Republicans just haven't been able to
Speaker 1: or willing to work with President Obama on anything. We've
Speaker 1: had this deep divide and I don't know if we're
Speaker 1: going to this election we'll heal that it all. Let's
Speaker 1: come back EJ. Deon with us the book Why the
Speaker 1: Right Went Wrong? Conservatism from very Goldwater to the Tea Party.
Speaker 1: E J. Don has the courage to go beyond Why
Speaker 1: the Right Went Wrong. We'll come back with Mr Deon
Speaker 1: and try to look beyond. The first Tuesday of November
Speaker 1: from New York, this is Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance is
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