Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into BP. NFL Christmas has come
Speaker 1: and gone, but we're still stopping your stocking with our
Speaker 1: best bets for a Week seventeen of the NFL season.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Seth Wilcock billion for Joey P who
Speaker 1: was unavailable today after having too much gaba ghul at
Speaker 1: the Piece of P family dinner last night. But still no,
Speaker 1: I'm not alone. I'm joined by a man who had
Speaker 1: a great holiday. I'm much assuming after some unders hitting
Speaker 1: both the Chief Steelers and Ravens Texans game. He is
Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson, aka the Undertaker. Happy Week seventeen, brother, how's
Speaker 1: the holiday?
Speaker 2: Oh? Holiday was absolutely excellent. A ton of food, overs
Speaker 2: on the food and taken to my body, probably way
Speaker 2: too much food. But the unders cash Joe Mixon came
Speaker 2: nowhere near his sixty three and a half rushing yards
Speaker 2: the lock of the Christmas Day slate. I mean, the
Speaker 2: Texans couldn't basically score on offense at all, you know,
Speaker 2: getting a safety as they're to be like, wait, what's
Speaker 2: the score? Thirty one two? Is a very bizarre game.
Speaker 2: But the food was good, the drinks were good, the
Speaker 2: family was good. So but I'm happy to be here
Speaker 2: today talking about the weeks because we have so many
Speaker 2: games still coming up. You know, Mayor had asked me
Speaker 2: in our slack that, hey, do you have a pick
Speaker 2: for tomorrow? I'm like, wait, is there football on Friday? Too?
Speaker 2: I was, but I wouldn't be surprised at this point.
Speaker 2: You know, in the NFL plays on every single day
Speaker 2: of the week. Anytime you look up, there may be
Speaker 2: an NFL game on. But we're here to make sure
Speaker 2: you have action on all the games you can with
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday. So let's break it down, seth.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking forward to man, and it is kind
Speaker 1: of tough to keep the calendar straight right now. You
Speaker 1: got the holidays, You got about twenty bold games happening
Speaker 1: over the next five or six days as well, so
Speaker 1: a lot happening in the football world. On today's program,
Speaker 1: we're gonna make sure you're invested in Week seventeen of
Speaker 1: the NFL season. We'll give you our top ten ats
Speaker 1: and total picks. Then i'll give you my parlay of
Speaker 1: the week as well. And also before we get going,
Speaker 1: I just wanted to thank everyone who's making time for
Speaker 1: us during your busy holiday week watching here on YouTube.
Speaker 1: And if you are here on YouTube and you enjoy
Speaker 1: this type of content, please like this video and subscribe
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Speaker 1: and review us wherever you get your audio podcast. Great.
Speaker 1: Appreciate the support not just now during the holiday season,
Speaker 1: but all year long here at BP. And also please
Speaker 1: download the Betting pros app. It's on iOS or Android.
Speaker 1: You can use the sportsbook Sync to automatically track your
Speaker 1: bets across all major sports books in one spot. So
Speaker 1: when college football, NFL, cricket, soccer, everything's happening this week,
Speaker 1: you can track it all in one place on this
Speaker 1: Betting Pro sports betting app. So make sure you're checking
Speaker 1: out the app, guys. BP app available everywhere. But Erickson,
Speaker 1: let's get right into the pick. Starting with Saturday. You
Speaker 1: were interested in the Broncos Bengals game. Bengals currently favored
Speaker 1: by three points. This was a really tough one for me.
Speaker 1: The Broncos been playing great, but the Bengals fighting for
Speaker 1: their life every single week.
Speaker 2: Now, Yeah they are, and their playoff chances are basically
Speaker 2: non existent at this point. I mean, every probability model
Speaker 2: will say that they have a chance, but yeah, considering
Speaker 2: the Chiefs locked up with the number one seed and
Speaker 2: the Broncos need to lose their next two games for
Speaker 2: the Bengals to get into the playoffs. The Chiefs are
Speaker 2: gonna do whatever in their power to rest every single
Speaker 2: start to make sure they lose the game against the
Speaker 2: Broncos to make sure the Bengals have no shot of
Speaker 2: making the postseason. But that's for Week eighteen. Week seventeen,
Speaker 2: the Bengals are going to try to win this game
Speaker 2: against Denver, and I like them the spot. I mean,
Speaker 2: the Bengals have been one of the most disappointing teams
Speaker 2: this season overall, but they've been better as of late.
Speaker 2: And one of the interesting trends I kind of found
Speaker 2: with them where I've kind of been back in them
Speaker 2: the last couple weeks, is you know, they've been much
Speaker 2: better against some of these less formidable opponents. So they've
Speaker 2: been favored twelve times this year, including nine times by
Speaker 2: more than a field goal, and that's really kind of
Speaker 2: the only time I've been good against the spread seven
Speaker 2: to two against the spread when it's been a field goal,
Speaker 2: or more so, where you're having this line here, you're
Speaker 2: seeing it at three and a half three at most books,
Speaker 2: So I like taking the Bengals with the three. They're
Speaker 2: playing at home, this is a game that they have
Speaker 2: to win to stay in playoff contention. They don't care
Speaker 2: about the other teams that are trying to win this game.
Speaker 2: I think the offense is still going to have success here.
Speaker 2: Denver's defense has not been good as of late, giving
Speaker 2: up a lot of points over the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 2: So I do like the Bengals here in this spot
Speaker 2: and in Denver hasn't been as good when they've been
Speaker 2: an underdog this season, like they've been very good when
Speaker 2: the books are saying, hey, bo Nicks is a favorite
Speaker 2: we like to hear in this spot, and they've been
Speaker 2: very profitable backing bon Nicks in those situations. But as underdogs,
Speaker 2: they're just four and four against the spread and two
Speaker 2: and six straight up. So when they've kind of been
Speaker 2: projected to lose games, I sent some of these more
Speaker 2: powerhouse teams, they have fallen short of delivering against the number.
Speaker 2: And it's like Joe Burrow three points at home against
Speaker 2: bon Knicks, Like sometimes you just got to zoom out
Speaker 2: and be like, hey, yeah, way, I feel comfortable laying
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow with the points against a rookie quarterback on
Speaker 2: the road. Right. Sometimes it can be just that simple,
Speaker 2: especially if we know the Bengals are going to score points, right,
Speaker 2: and if bon Nicks has to drop back to throw
Speaker 2: forty times, I'll take my chances. So I like the
Speaker 2: Bengals here at home minus three.
Speaker 1: I hope this one does come true because I have
Speaker 1: an AFC West Exact order five to one I put
Speaker 1: on preseason, and I need the Broncos continue to lose
Speaker 1: some games. The Chargers in them were real close. I
Speaker 1: was happy about that. There's a night f FO ball
Speaker 1: victory for Los Angeles. Hoping that this one comes true.
Speaker 1: Might be telling you on that as well. I do
Speaker 1: like the analysis there from ericson. I'm gonna stick with
Speaker 1: this like fifty foot zoom level the youth throughout there,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna take a page out of your book, actually,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go with an alt total paying a
Speaker 1: little bit of juice here for the Las Vegas Raiders
Speaker 1: versus the Saints alternate under thirty nine and a half points.
Speaker 1: This is minus one thirty eight at DraftKings, and I
Speaker 1: never mind buying back a couple points. I felt like
Speaker 1: thirty eight and a half where this line was set originally,
Speaker 1: was just a little too short for me. But if
Speaker 1: Derek Carr doesn't play, this is a game between a
Speaker 1: no O'Connell and Spencer Radler. Like It's as simple as
Speaker 1: that for me. The Saints have scored under this total
Speaker 1: and two straight games without Derek Carr, and four straight
Speaker 1: dating back to two games when they had Derek Carr
Speaker 1: as well. Saints estimated practice report Alvin Kamara Derek Carr
Speaker 1: DNPS as of Wednesday, Jawan Johnson also limited. They might
Speaker 1: get Chris o'lave back, but he has not played since
Speaker 1: Week eight. Their wide receiver corp currently mvs Cedric will
Speaker 1: and a guy named Kevin Austin Junior. So I'm not
Speaker 1: worried about the Saints or the Raiders putting up a
Speaker 1: lot of points here. The Raiders have hit this under
Speaker 1: and four straight games after losing Gardner Minshew. Those games
Speaker 1: were against way better offenses Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: They also might be without starting left guard Jackson Powers Johnson,
Speaker 1: who was also estimated as an LP the other day,
Speaker 1: and his backup Jordan Meredith who was a DNP on Wednesday.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with the under here in the
Speaker 1: Spencer Radler versus a O'Connell game on Sunday afternoon.
Speaker 2: Look, sometimes you just gotta zoom out on two quarterbacks
Speaker 2: that are playing and think, hey, does this mean that
Speaker 2: there's gonna be points or no? I mean last week
Speaker 2: you got to think that, not even like talking about
Speaker 2: the Saints game, which I mean barely was in a game. Yeah, really,
Speaker 2: it was something that was on TV where there were
Speaker 2: two NFL teams. I don't know if they were really
Speaker 2: playing football, they're doing something. But even the Jaguars Raiders game, right,
Speaker 2: you looked at that and like, okay, like this can
Speaker 2: be a gross shootout. Yeah, not even close. There's just
Speaker 2: too bad quarterbacks playing bad quarterback play. So I think
Speaker 2: you're gonna get more of that here. Again, the only
Speaker 2: way I see this going over is when you get
Speaker 2: those wacky fumble six pick six year and again you
Speaker 2: know that is why it's called gambling at the end
Speaker 2: of the day. But I think the process here is
Speaker 2: right with your rationale behind this play. So I do
Speaker 2: like the under here as well.
Speaker 1: Okay, let's go back to the Saturday slate where you
Speaker 1: like the Chargers and the Patriots to also potentially go
Speaker 1: over a total at forty two and a half points.
Speaker 1: What do you like there? What are you seeing it for?
Speaker 1: This game is gonna kick off at one Eastern time.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is the first game on the Saturday
Speaker 2: slate at one o'clock on Saturday. So I do like
Speaker 2: I like the over in this game. And the reason
Speaker 2: is that the Patriots games, the only way I can
Speaker 2: enjoy watching them anymore is watching Drake may just be
Speaker 2: amazing at football because the everyone else something team is terrible.
Speaker 2: That's the reason why Austin Hooper is now becoming like
Speaker 2: a tight end that's usable in fantasy because he's like
Speaker 2: the second best receiver on the team besides Hunter Henry,
Speaker 2: who's tight end one. And you look at the Patriots,
Speaker 2: So they're five and one towards the over at home
Speaker 2: this year forty six points per game, so you're seeing
Speaker 2: this total around forty two and a half forty three
Speaker 2: points at most books. So I like the over here.
Speaker 2: And it's always dangerous right when you're betting on overs
Speaker 2: when it comes to the Chargers, right because they're a
Speaker 2: team that is just like notorious for killing game totals.
Speaker 2: They usually go shyed towards the under, but you know, eventually, hey,
Speaker 2: you have to have them kind of breakout of that understreak, right.
Speaker 2: I think they've only had one game this season on
Speaker 2: the road where they've actually gone over the total. But
Speaker 2: the Patriots, as I've indicated already, like they're the gift
Speaker 2: that keeps on giving during the festive time of the year.
Speaker 2: You just give out overs because of how bad the
Speaker 2: defense is and how electric Drake May can be making
Speaker 2: plays downfield, making plays with his legs. You know, I
Speaker 2: see similarities between the way Drake May and Justin Herbert play,
Speaker 2: Like both really good arms can use their legs. So
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna see some some high end quarterback
Speaker 2: play here in this matchup. And that's why I like
Speaker 2: the over. Again, forty two and a half. That's not
Speaker 2: a high bar to pass in any way. This is
Speaker 2: not Vegas looking at Hey, this game is going to
Speaker 2: be a shootout by no means that are going to
Speaker 2: be a shootout. But can't get over forty two and
Speaker 2: a half points considering the average has been forty six
Speaker 2: points against all the teams the Patriots have played at
Speaker 2: home this year. I think it can. And I also
Speaker 2: do like the fact that JK. Dobbins could be coming
Speaker 2: back for the Chargers here the explosive element they need
Speaker 2: in their running game that can definitely take advantage of
Speaker 2: a very bad Patriots run defense. So, especially with Dobbins
Speaker 2: coming back that's not considered at all in these lines.
Speaker 2: I think he can move off some explosive runs and
Speaker 2: help get this game over the total. So it give
Speaker 2: me the over forty two and a half Patriots and Chargers.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna stay in this game. I'm gonna actually
Speaker 1: back the Chargers against the spread here minus four. They've
Speaker 1: been a top five team ats this season at ten
Speaker 1: and five, and Jim Harball's teams, whether it's last year
Speaker 1: at Michigan or here, with the Chargers, they take care
Speaker 1: of business when they should. They've covered in eight of
Speaker 1: ten games when they've been favored this season. And while
Speaker 1: I'm like you and I really do like Drake Man.
Speaker 1: I've wrote him into the Fantasy Championships in a couple
Speaker 1: of leagues. I like what he's done for this team,
Speaker 1: But I don't know if you feel the same but
Speaker 1: it feels kind of like a letdown spot after getting
Speaker 1: up last week in Buffalo, and I don't like the
Speaker 1: vibes in New England as a whole. DRAWDMEO. I don't
Speaker 1: want to, you know, call for anyone's job or anything
Speaker 1: like that, but called as players soft earlier this year
Speaker 1: through their offensive linemen under the bus last week as
Speaker 1: well after that horrible play with Ramandre Stevenson. I think
Speaker 1: this is a solid matchup for the Chargers, who, as
Speaker 1: you alluded to, they might be getting JK. Dobbins back,
Speaker 1: and if they don't, they need to find a way
Speaker 1: to open up this passing game. The Patriots might be
Speaker 1: the cure to fix as well. They've allowed an eight
Speaker 1: pointy a dot that's the third highest clip and the
Speaker 1: seventh most air yards this season. They've also have the
Speaker 1: seventh fewest interceptions against quarterback seven this season. So I'm
Speaker 1: expecting Justin Herbert to tee off in this game. Fine
Speaker 1: Laden McConkey, Fine Quintin Johnston downfield. So I'll go ahead
Speaker 1: and take the Chargers minus four against the Patriots.
Speaker 2: If I wasn't a Patriots fan, I would agree with
Speaker 2: you you said, because I guess I think I think
Speaker 2: you're spot on. Just I can't. I don't like betting
Speaker 2: it because not on for me, Like I watched them
Speaker 2: like to only I'll take them with the points usually,
Speaker 2: you know, last week with like like plus fourteen, so
Speaker 2: that was fine. It was like a fun sweat and
Speaker 2: then they're up fourteen nothing you think, oh, could I
Speaker 2: win this game? Not quite, but I agree with you.
Speaker 2: I think the Chargers is probably the sharp play here.
Speaker 2: Again goes back to zoom out on the coaches. Right,
Speaker 2: you got hardball against raw Mayo. Right, I don't think
Speaker 2: that we would be surprised at any Like the coaching
Speaker 2: mismatch is significant and again like Drick may but he's
Speaker 2: not quite at the level of Justin Herbert, so you
Speaker 2: see a lot of advantages. And yeah, the Patriots are
Speaker 2: playing at home. I can't remember the last time they
Speaker 2: won a home game totally. I think it might have
Speaker 2: been against the Jets. I don't honestly remember It's it's
Speaker 2: been a while. So yeah, I think you're you're pretty
Speaker 2: safe here. Back in the Bolts.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you don't bet against your own team because
Speaker 1: I'm the same way. Like occasionally I will back the
Speaker 1: Steelers or Penn State when I when I'm feeling good
Speaker 1: vibes around the team. But yesterday, my my cousin walks
Speaker 1: into the room, Hey, you betting the Steelers today. I'm
Speaker 1: like no, She's like, well, did you bet against them?
Speaker 1: And like, because my uncle he always had his favorite
Speaker 1: teams the Eagles, so you'll hedge against himself every single week.
Speaker 1: I'm like, no, I'm ride with the boys, you know
Speaker 1: what I mean. I'm not I'm going down swinging. So
Speaker 1: I would never do you have you ever hedged against
Speaker 1: your your favorite team? Because I will never do that.
Speaker 2: I don't think I've had a situation where I felt
Speaker 2: the need to do it, Like that's why I bet
Speaker 2: the Like my way version of hedging is like, that's
Speaker 2: why I bet the over games because yeah, yeah, I
Speaker 2: root for Drake May. Like that's basically like why I
Speaker 2: enjoyed Patriots games because I know the defense can't do anything,
Speaker 2: so it's like they're gonna give up points. I know that.
Speaker 2: That's kind of me betting against them, and then I'm
Speaker 2: betting for them and rooting for them by betting the
Speaker 2: game total over, which hey, that means Drake May is
Speaker 2: balling out doing things, and and again I root for
Speaker 2: turnovers and touchdowns. Like again, never can never go wrong
Speaker 2: with root for touchdowns, man, never go wrong.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, And hopefully you guys can hold on to a
Speaker 1: high pick. Maybe some Travis Hunter coming to town next
Speaker 1: year for the Patriots.
Speaker 2: I don't know if they can about any any receiver
Speaker 2: of any type come anywhere near Patriots. That's that's a rookie.
Speaker 2: Please keep them away. Like I don't want to ruin
Speaker 2: any any player.
Speaker 1: I don't want to ruin their very fair because even
Speaker 1: we've seen some struggles, some slow starts from Marvin Harrison
Speaker 1: Junior down there in Arizona. You like the Cardinals potentially
Speaker 1: this week in an underdog spot against the Rams on
Speaker 1: Saturday night, eight fifteen pm Eastern Time. What are you
Speaker 1: thinking here for Arizona Los Angeles Herrickson.
Speaker 2: I just think that this one at plus six and
Speaker 2: a half is too many points for a divisional matchup. Look,
Speaker 2: the Cardinals aren't some garbage team. Yes, have they been
Speaker 2: like super disappointing, especially over the last month. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: because they've had a cupcake schedule. Though they couldn't beat
Speaker 2: the Seahawks, they couldn't beat the Panthers, but they've also
Speaker 2: had games where like they went down to the wire
Speaker 2: with like the Minnesota Vikings. They also killed the Rams
Speaker 2: earlier this season. Now that was a while ago, but
Speaker 2: just like learning you know, from looking at a lot
Speaker 2: of these spreads this year, these divisional matchups, right, they
Speaker 2: never go what it looks like on paper, like they're
Speaker 2: always way more wacky and things. And when you were
Speaker 2: given the luxury of six and a half points for
Speaker 2: a divisional matchup against the Rams playing at home, where
Speaker 2: you know they don't have home field advantage. So that's
Speaker 2: why I really it's really like less about like the
Speaker 2: Cardinals themselves, right, because I've seen them. They're obviously disappointing,
Speaker 2: but like that's why the number is what it is,
Speaker 2: because they've been such a terrible team to want to back.
Speaker 2: And and that being said, I mean they've covered the
Speaker 2: spread eight of the last eleven road games. You look
Speaker 2: at the Rams, the team that's played on the road
Speaker 2: has usually covered their games. Nine of the last eleven
Speaker 2: games for the Rams, the road team has actually covered
Speaker 2: the spread. Wow, the Rams have been a really good
Speaker 2: team that I've been on when they've been on the
Speaker 2: road because they've got a lot of suppressed lines as
Speaker 2: a result. But now you're kind of getting the opposite
Speaker 2: here where the Cardinals are getting no credit whatsoever despite
Speaker 2: being seven and eight, being a team that already beat
Speaker 2: the Rams this year, and yes they're out of the playoffs,
Speaker 2: but looks like James Connor's gonna shoot up in this game.
Speaker 2: They have Trey Benson. So and I mean the Rams,
Speaker 2: what were they doing against just last week? Like that
Speaker 2: was a game that we thought could be a shootout,
Speaker 2: and then they're stalling out, they're not moving the ball,
Speaker 2: like they've had enough bad games this year. The Rams
Speaker 2: when they went on the road against the Saints, they
Speaker 2: could barely score points, went on the road against the Jets,
Speaker 2: could barely score You're like, wait, that's going on. So
Speaker 2: they're not exactly the most consistent team either, and given
Speaker 2: that the divisional game, I just think this is too
Speaker 2: many points. Do I think the Cardinals win? No, not necessarily.
Speaker 2: I think the Rams find a way to squeak out
Speaker 2: a win. But I've seen them play teams way too
Speaker 2: close that they should have totally blown out to have
Speaker 2: confidence that they're gonna win this game by a touchdown.
Speaker 2: So I let the Cardinals here plus six and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Rams are such a tough team to figure
Speaker 1: out because that inconsistency. One week they can barely scrape
Speaker 1: by the Jets, and then the week prior it's like
Speaker 1: they're lighting up the Bills. And yeah, definitely an interesting team.
Speaker 1: Hopefully they can figure some things out late down the stretch.
Speaker 1: They're obviously in that NFC West battle against the Seahawks
Speaker 1: for the division, probably their only way in the postseason.
Speaker 1: So excited to see kind of how that shakes up.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to the Sunday slate for my third pick.
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Dolphins Browns under forty and a
Speaker 1: half points. And this is moving. I did see this
Speaker 1: just move. After I place this bet to thirty nine
Speaker 1: and a half, I think it's still at forty and
Speaker 1: a half at I think bet three six five if
Speaker 1: you're over there, bet rivers as well. And I just
Speaker 1: want a way to fade the Browns against the Dolphins
Speaker 1: because Kevin Stefanski, he's a buzzkill, Like he's the guy
Speaker 1: you're not inviting to Christmas dinner because he's like, oh,
Speaker 1: let's just start. Dorian Thompson Robinson for the rest of
Speaker 1: the season, ruin everyone's fantasy hopes, whether you had Jerry
Speaker 1: Judy or Jamis or Najoku, anyone who're rolling out there.
Speaker 1: But then I was like really thinking about it, and
Speaker 1: I was like, can I actually trust the Dolphins playing
Speaker 1: in the elements? It will be a little bit warmer
Speaker 1: in Ohio on Sunday, but there's a seventy nine percent
Speaker 1: chance of rain up along the shores of Lake Erie.
Speaker 1: So I don't trust the Dolphins. I don't trust the Browns.
Speaker 1: The Browns have averaged just nine points in the past
Speaker 1: three weeks, and that was with Jamis Winston in two
Speaker 1: of those games. In the five games that Dorian Thompson
Speaker 1: Robinson has started, the Browns are averaging nine point six
Speaker 1: points per game. Nijoku estimate DNP. Jerry Judy limited at
Speaker 1: practice this week as well. DTR also isn't at one
Speaker 1: hundred percent with a cap, but is trending towards playing.
Speaker 1: The Dolphins also pretty banged up. They've played to the
Speaker 1: under in two straight good weather games against the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers in Houston. Better offenses here and estimate DMPs
Speaker 1: for them included left tackle Tarryan Armstead and wide receiver
Speaker 1: Jalen Watles. So I also like the Browns under sixteen
Speaker 1: and a half team total based on DTR's previous history,
Speaker 1: But give me the under forty and a half in
Speaker 1: a weird four or five Eastern time kickoff in Cleveland.
Speaker 1: I don't know if any was gonna be at this
Speaker 1: game ericson, I have no idea, Like, if you're in Cleveland,
Speaker 1: if you're a Browns fan, are you going to this
Speaker 1: game on Sunday?
Speaker 2: Oh? Man? This this Why does this game exist? Like?
Speaker 2: Why is this on the I mean there's better ways, see,
Speaker 2: I think this is this is a perfect way to
Speaker 2: approach it. Right, Nobody wants to watch this game necessarily
Speaker 2: except Browns fans or Dolphins fans maybe you know. But
Speaker 2: when you don't want to watch it and you want
Speaker 2: to fade both teams, you just take me under. That's
Speaker 2: what you do. Like that's why it was so fun.
Speaker 2: Like on Christmas, I'm so busy doing all these things,
Speaker 2: entertaining aunts and uncles while I got the Unders going,
Speaker 2: so uh yeah, we're good to go. And then you
Speaker 2: look up, you check the scores and get back You're
Speaker 2: like great. It was a great day. So yeah, the Dolphins, Man,
Speaker 2: if they were playing anywhere buck Cleveland like it, I
Speaker 2: think it'd be easy to take them against the spread,
Speaker 2: even though it's like laying almost a touchdown with them
Speaker 2: on the road. But they beat up on bad teams,
Speaker 2: we know that. To what extent do they beat up
Speaker 2: on the Browns? Right, especially if you're playing outdoors, and
Speaker 2: even though the temperature is not a big issue, just
Speaker 2: we've seen this Dolphins. It's every single time they play
Speaker 2: someone that's a better team. So again, you know, maybe
Speaker 2: I'm not as down on them against the spread as
Speaker 2: you are. I think again, I think again, if you're
Speaker 2: making me pick a team, I'm not taking the brown
Speaker 2: So in that way, I think that, Yeah, I think
Speaker 2: maybe the Dolphins maybe like you can do a little again,
Speaker 2: depending on what the number is where you're getting at
Speaker 2: the total, maybe you can alt the spread a little bit,
Speaker 2: bring it down a little bit Miami, you know, three
Speaker 2: and a half or four and a half or something
Speaker 2: like that, or by a field goal and then get
Speaker 2: a better number on the total. So because they think, yeah,
Speaker 2: I think Miam's gonna win this game, not too concerned
Speaker 2: about that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they need to flex it like True TV or
Speaker 1: something so somewhere or know what's watching like I think
Speaker 1: I'd rather watch my local news at four o'clock that
Speaker 1: this honestly my local news covers you know knows disrespect
Speaker 1: to the people out here in Lankster County, but not
Speaker 1: the best, not the best local news coverage out here.
Speaker 1: But keep swing you guys, We appreciate you. Before we continue,
Speaker 1: I didn't want to remind everyone about the Betting Pros discord.
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Speaker 1: Ericson coming right back for you. On the Sunday Slate,
Speaker 1: we got the Carolina Panthers. Who are now eight and
Speaker 1: a half point dogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I
Speaker 1: edit this show a lot, so I know you've had
Speaker 1: this back and forth relationship with the Panthers all year,
Speaker 1: like it's your high school girlfriend and you're going away
Speaker 1: to call in the spring. So what's happening here with
Speaker 1: the Panthers? Are you back on with them?
Speaker 2: Now? We are reigniting the flame with the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker 1: Went home for Christmas and he's Christmas break, baby, let's go.
Speaker 2: I don't understand why it's this massive a line. We
Speaker 2: see these teams play not that long ago Week thirteen game,
Speaker 2: win to overtime. They end up winning the game because
Speaker 2: of a Chuba Hubbard fumble. That's a game that the
Speaker 2: Panthers could have won outright. We've seen the Panthers play
Speaker 2: four straight games go down to the wire the last
Speaker 2: seven weeks. They are six and one against the spread. Again,
Speaker 2: the one week that everybody was on them against Dallas,
Speaker 2: of course they crumble. But this is just way too
Speaker 2: big of a line. Look, we talk about the Buccaneers
Speaker 2: a lot too on this show, talking about Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 2: Love him as a on the road, love him as
Speaker 2: an underdog. He's not either of these in this scenario,
Speaker 2: like he is a heavy home favorite against a divisional opponent. Yep,
Speaker 2: this is way too big of a line. So this
Speaker 2: is definitely I think of all the bets we've talked
Speaker 2: about today, I think this is my favorite one. I
Speaker 2: just and we mentioned it on the early look Ahead
Speaker 2: line between me and Joe. Joe kind of agreed with
Speaker 2: me that it seems like way too many points for
Speaker 2: the Buccaneers at home. I think their defense is terrible, Like,
Speaker 2: their defense is still so bad. We saw Brayceta have
Speaker 2: success against them already this season. And who's playing looser? Right,
Speaker 2: who's playing more tight? The Buccaneers have to win and
Speaker 2: make the playoffs, right, because they all the Falcons are
Speaker 2: breathing down their neck. But Carolina's like, dude, like we're
Speaker 2: just We're just out here trying to have fun. Man
Speaker 2: like play spoiler, play the grinch role. So I really
Speaker 2: like And David Canl is also playing against his old team,
Speaker 2: So I really like the Panthers here in the spot.
Speaker 2: And we've already seen them play well above expectation the
Speaker 2: last seven weeks, last six games as an underdog, they've
Speaker 2: covered the Carolina Panthers and they again eight and a
Speaker 2: half points. Divisional matchup again, same reasons why I like
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. Just a divisional matchup, eight and a half
Speaker 2: points again if I make them one pick against the spread.
Speaker 2: This week, I'm back at the Cardiac Cats.
Speaker 1: Okay, And it's been interesting because since Bryce Young has
Speaker 1: returned and they've gone on this not winning streak but
Speaker 1: semi close losing streak. All their losses as of late
Speaker 1: have been one score games. They've been close. Bryce Young's
Speaker 1: a new career high in rushing yards last week as well.
Speaker 1: It's starting to kind of see that Alabama Bryce Young.
Speaker 1: Do you think they stay with him going into twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five or do you think maybe they draft like
Speaker 1: a Day two guy, like a Jackson Dart or Curtis
Speaker 1: Rourk out of Indiana something like that. Or do you
Speaker 1: think Bryce Young it is the future there in Carolina?
Speaker 2: I mean, I think they definitely wanted to be the
Speaker 2: future there, But I think that any you know, sharp
Speaker 2: organization is never gonna say like we want like you
Speaker 2: should be a quarterback factory, right, you should always be
Speaker 2: looking at like because guys get hurt all the time.
Speaker 2: And you never know. You know, we've seen Bryce sung guests,
Speaker 2: he seems like he's got his commidence back, we've also
Speaker 2: seen it when it's not there, and like, what's gonna
Speaker 2: happen if he had goes through a cold spell of
Speaker 2: our really disappointing games. And he's also an undersized quarterback,
Speaker 2: So what are the elements in terms of like his
Speaker 2: injury and health. So I don't think it's ever a
Speaker 2: bad idea to always continuing to invest into the quarterback position. Again,
Speaker 2: you want to get the best guy. And it's like
Speaker 2: goes back to the forty nine ers, right, you know,
Speaker 2: the trade up to get Trey Lance, they drafted brock Birdy,
Speaker 2: and yeah, at the end of the day, they got
Speaker 2: their guy and it's like not the way that we
Speaker 2: planned on doing it, but it kind of worked out
Speaker 2: at the end. So I think it would be sharp
Speaker 2: for them to continue to look at the position. But
Speaker 2: I think obviously going into next year, Bryce Young is
Speaker 2: going to be the unequivocal starter in Noka in that lineup.
Speaker 1: All right, For my fourth pick, I am going to
Speaker 1: go with the over in the Green Bay Packers Minnesota
Speaker 1: Vikings game. This line currently set forty eight and a
Speaker 1: half points. I got at minus one oay at DraftKings,
Speaker 1: this of course going off at Sunday at four twenty
Speaker 1: five pm Eastern time. I really think that the Green
Speaker 1: Bay offense, while they've been frustrating for fantasy outside Jordan
Speaker 1: Love and Josh Jacobs, they've been playing great ball lately
Speaker 1: on that side of the ball. Matt Lafleur coaching them
Speaker 1: up scored over thirty points in five straight games, averaging
Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty seven yards of total offense in
Speaker 1: that span as well, and the Vikings have allowed just
Speaker 1: one more rushing yard than the Ravens for the fewest
Speaker 1: amount this season. So I do not think Josh Jacobs
Speaker 1: will be very effective in this game. If you want
Speaker 1: to take some unders on his rushing props, I wouldn't
Speaker 1: mind that either, But I think this will force the
Speaker 1: Pack to throw the ball a little more around the yard.
Speaker 1: Jordan Love's gonna have a big game. They're gonna have
Speaker 1: to save some clock. Meanwhile, the Vikings, they've also averaged
Speaker 1: thirty and a half points over the past five games.
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold is absolutely cooking right now. Average two in
Speaker 1: seventy eight yards two point six touchdowns per game in
Speaker 1: that five game span, I expect him to air it
Speaker 1: out here. And with the Packers also being a top
Speaker 1: six defense against the run, I think Aaron Jones is
Speaker 1: probably clogged up a little bit. So there are sixty
Speaker 1: points scored in this game between these two teams back
Speaker 1: in week number five. So give me the over in
Speaker 1: Minnesota in a controlled environment in the Dome. I'm going
Speaker 1: to you know, it's always sketchy with the divisional game
Speaker 1: that they've seen each other a couple times already, once
Speaker 1: this season and multiple times last season, but I'm sticking
Speaker 1: with it. Forty and a half seems low, So give
Speaker 1: me the over.
Speaker 2: I think that this is a good pick by you Seth.
Speaker 2: Not to say the other picks are bad, this one,
Speaker 2: this one in particular, especially because it's hey, like, don't
Speaker 2: watch Miami Browns, Watchbackers Vikings, like this is already action
Speaker 2: is gonna be And knowing my like, I know that
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get on the East Coast broadcast. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: get Dolphins and brown and just and just wish that
Speaker 2: they would switch the game over to Packers in Minnesota Vikings.
Speaker 2: But I think this thing to point out to it,
Speaker 2: and the first time that these teams played, it was
Speaker 2: a very weird game. I believe that the Vikings jumped
Speaker 2: out to like a massive lead, yes, and then Jordan
Speaker 2: Love just started just like hucking it in the second half,
Speaker 2: and they eventually kind of crawled their way back into
Speaker 2: the game. Now, it seemed like the Vikings were always
Speaker 2: gonna win in the end, but Green Bay obviously came back.
Speaker 2: But I also believe that game was Love was kind
Speaker 2: of still banged up right the beginning of the season,
Speaker 2: so he's dealing with that groin injury, that that knee injuries,
Speaker 2: so he should be he's one hundred percent healthy now.
Speaker 2: I mean he's coming off basically essentially a bye week
Speaker 2: against the New Orleans against the New Orleans Saints. So
Speaker 2: I think you're getting both teams at at full capacity.
Speaker 2: You got Hawkinson, he wasn't in the first matchup, right,
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think you're gonna see points here. And
Speaker 2: this is a matchup I love for fantasy too, because
Speaker 2: we know the Vikings like they drive volume out of
Speaker 2: their opponents, and like that's the biggest issue with these packers, Like, oh,
Speaker 2: no one gets enough targets. Well, targets are coming in
Speaker 2: week seventeen. I don't know where they're.
Speaker 1: Going still, I don't know who they're going to.
Speaker 2: But if everybody can, if we can, if we can
Speaker 2: go from like four to like seven for everybody, then
Speaker 2: we feel much better, especially if Kristia Watson doesn't play.
Speaker 2: So God, I can only pray for those that are
Speaker 2: gonna rely on Tavian Wicks to play him in the
Speaker 2: Fantasy Championships. I don't know if i'd happen in me,
Speaker 2: but he's probably gonna have another big game. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I like the over here as well.
Speaker 1: All right, let's let's round out your picks here with
Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football, maybe one of the most intriguing games
Speaker 1: on the slate, Like maybe not from a closest game
Speaker 1: that I think it's going to happen, but we have
Speaker 1: Michael Pennix Junior in a second start going up against
Speaker 1: the Commanders. How do you feel this one shakes out?
Speaker 1: After Jane Daniels has what was perhaps the best game
Speaker 1: of his career last week and perhaps sealed him the
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year honors.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that he's actually not getting enough credit
Speaker 2: for that performance last week because the line is only
Speaker 2: four points, and I think it has to do a
Speaker 2: lot with Oh, well, Michael Pennix, like looked really good
Speaker 2: in his start, and I went into last week just
Speaker 2: keeping this in the back of my mind that if
Speaker 2: Michael Penix comes out, I need to keep this in mind.
Speaker 2: They played the Giants, yep, they play. They played the
Speaker 2: JV team of the New York Giants, and Penix, I
Speaker 2: mean what, you didn't even have to do that much.
Speaker 2: They had two pick sixes, right, So yes, he looked good,
Speaker 2: but you have to keep in mind the opponent that
Speaker 2: they were playing. Something. A trend that I've looked at
Speaker 2: a lot this year has been rookie quarterbacks as favorites.
Speaker 2: They performed really well against the spread this year, so
Speaker 2: Michael Penix was a favorite. I was back in him
Speaker 2: last week because they used to be like, hey, this
Speaker 2: guy should cover. And now I'm following that same trend,
Speaker 2: except on the other side of this matchup, because I'm
Speaker 2: looking at Jaden Daniels as the rookie quarterback who's favored
Speaker 2: in this matchup. So for me, it goes back to
Speaker 2: I don't think four points here is enough. The Commanders
Speaker 2: are playing at home, they are riding high after this
Speaker 2: massive win over the Philadelphia Eagles Atlanta. Yeah, they beat
Speaker 2: the Giants great, but this team still has a lot
Speaker 2: of issues that will go beyond the quarterback position. I
Speaker 2: still don't think their defense is very good, even though
Speaker 2: they've they've played well against some sub are composition shooting up.
Speaker 2: They played the Giants, They played the Giants and the Raiders.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, Desmond Rider drew Lock. Like, great job, guys.
Speaker 2: Now you're gonna play the future offensive rookie of the
Speaker 2: year in terms of Jade and Daniels. So the Commanders
Speaker 2: all year have been this team that have struggled to
Speaker 2: beat like the best teams, which was why last week
Speaker 2: again obviously maybe a little asterisk because Jalen Hurts didn't
Speaker 2: play the game, but they still end up winning that
Speaker 2: game against the Eagles. And yes, the Falcons have a
Speaker 2: winning record, but you know who has winning record the Texans, Right,
Speaker 2: Just like one of these like kind of like fraudulent
Speaker 2: teams where it's like, yeah, like they're supposed to be good,
Speaker 2: but the record says they're good, but are they really good?
Speaker 2: Are the Falcons good? Seth? I mean, if you ask
Speaker 2: Trel Furman, again he's on the show either, But Treyll
Speaker 2: Furman would be very proud. This has to be about
Speaker 2: his picks to fade the Falcons into oblivion, which is
Speaker 2: he always he usually does on a week to week basis.
Speaker 2: So I know that Treill's gonna like this pick. So
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Commanders laying four at home
Speaker 2: against the Dirty Birds and Michael Pennix. I just think
Speaker 2: that they're probably getting too much love for Penix's performance
Speaker 2: last week when I think it was more about the
Speaker 2: New York Giants than the Falcons being this. Oh, this
Speaker 2: team's ready to run away with the NFC South. I
Speaker 2: don't think that's going to be the case.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of problems for Atlanta. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: if Drake London is going to suit up in this one.
Speaker 1: We also have Kyle Pitts who thinks he was a
Speaker 1: quarterback last week and just started laddering footballs forward.
Speaker 2: He thought he tried to be Travis Kelsey except.
Speaker 1: Forgot that you're only allowed to throw the ball backwards
Speaker 1: when you already catch it. But yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I think the Falcons have a long way to go.
Speaker 1: I'm really hoping for Michael Pennix's sake that they don't
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, just because I think Baker Mayfield has
Speaker 1: a better chance to make a run out of the
Speaker 1: South than the Falcons do. And yeah, Commanders have been hot,
Speaker 1: They've they've been frisky, kind of slowed down their rushing
Speaker 1: attack a little bit in the backfield. I want to
Speaker 1: see Brian Robinson Junior get back to full hell. I
Speaker 1: think he's still a little banged up, and hopefully Austin
Speaker 1: Eckler can return at some point. But yeah, I think
Speaker 1: it's a good spot for the Commanders. On Sunday Night Football,
Speaker 1: I'll round us out my final pick and win it.
Speaker 1: Dout Fae the Giants, who are four and eleven ats
Speaker 1: this season, two and seven ats at home. They just
Speaker 1: lost the foul Andrew told us thirty four to seven
Speaker 1: and Pennix's first start, Malik Neighbors, Tyrone Tracy estimated dnps
Speaker 1: on Wednesday. I think Neighbors is tracking towards playing, but
Speaker 1: tracy status seems very much in the air. Drew Locke
Speaker 1: also limited with a shoulder, but I'm kind of hoping
Speaker 1: he plays because he has four interceptions one touchdowns this season.
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson for the Colt something to monitor. He was
Speaker 1: listed as an estimated DNP on Wednesday, But I don't
Speaker 1: really think this matters for betting this game because Joe
Speaker 1: Flacco and him are very you know, one A, one B.
Speaker 1: I think in this type of situation, Colts are still
Speaker 1: in the hunt for a playoff spot, coming off a
Speaker 1: vintage Jonathan Taylor game where he had two hundred and
Speaker 1: eighteen yards three touchdowns a week after I was eliminated
Speaker 1: for my fantasy playoffs in my big money league. So
Speaker 1: appreciate that JT. But now they get a Giants defense.
Speaker 1: It's allowed the second most rushing yards this season, four
Speaker 1: point eight yards per carry. Clip giddy up. I'm betting
Speaker 1: all the JT overs I can. I'm laddering him, and
Speaker 1: I expect JT to carry people to fantasy championships and
Speaker 1: the Colts cash and tickets. I would wait on this one, though,
Speaker 1: because I think maybe if Richardson gets rolled out or
Speaker 1: he's questionable coming into Sunday, maybe you can get rab
Speaker 1: of six and a half so you can finish this
Speaker 1: one off if they win by a touchdown. So I'm
Speaker 1: waiting on this, but I do like the Colts at
Speaker 1: seven and a half, hoping this line moves a little
Speaker 1: bit towards Sunday.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Colts are traditionally a team that you want
Speaker 2: to bet on when they're favored, right, so they usually
Speaker 2: show up when they're underdogs when you kind of run
Speaker 2: into issues, especially when they're facing It seems like every
Speaker 2: like AFC South matchup with these teams is always like
Speaker 2: a pickups, like I don't really know, like who's at home.
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, the Colts here, I think that. I mean,
Speaker 2: even if Richardson suits up, you know, the Giants two
Speaker 2: of the things that they're worst at are against the run.
Speaker 2: We know that the Colts can run the ball effectively
Speaker 2: with Richardson, with Jonathan Taylor, and they're the number one
Speaker 2: worst defense against the deep ball. Look, Richardson might complete
Speaker 2: five passes, but he might get over one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty yards with those. His passing yards projection, I don't
Speaker 2: know what it is now, but I think it opened
Speaker 2: at like one hundred and sixty yards.
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh.
Speaker 2: It was comic low. And honestly, I think he gets
Speaker 2: the over in his passing arts because it's funny. Well,
Speaker 2: he completed like six passes I think last week, Yeah,
Speaker 2: he's thought over one hundred passing, so I think he's
Speaker 2: got to complete some of these moonballs. It looks like
Speaker 2: al Pierce is gonna be back as well. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I like the cold here.
Speaker 1: And we're gonna go and transition into my parlay of
Speaker 1: the week to round us out on the program. And
Speaker 1: I know this is an NFL show, but we all
Speaker 1: like football, right, So I'm gonna be taking my favorite
Speaker 1: bet of the NFL this week, parlaying it with my
Speaker 1: favorite college football bowl game bet, Miami Dolphins and the Browns.
Speaker 1: I'm taking the under there forty and a half points
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen. I also got Sarahcuse laying sixteen and
Speaker 1: a half points on Washington State in the Holiday Bowl.
Speaker 1: Total odds of plus two sixty nine at fandle Fran
Speaker 1: Brown has done an exceptional job with the Syracuse team,
Speaker 1: and they are all up for the Holiday Bowl. Most
Speaker 1: of their starters will be playing, including quarterback Kyle McCord,
Speaker 1: who was first in the nation and passing attempts, third
Speaker 1: in total yards, fifth and passing touchdowns. Wazoo, they had
Speaker 1: quarterback John Tier who's their entire offense he's in the portal.
Speaker 1: They're leading rusher way Shaun Parker, and the Porter their
Speaker 1: second leading wide receiver Chris Hudson, and the Portal their
Speaker 1: right tackle. Four defensive starters opting out of this game.
Speaker 1: So Washington State they have nothing returning, no consistency. They
Speaker 1: also have their head coach and most of their staff
Speaker 1: is gonna be gone for this one as well. So
Speaker 1: go ahead, give me Syracuse my sixteen and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm parlaying that with the Dolphins Browns under this gives
Speaker 1: us combined odds plus two sixty nine. Nice at fandles.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go ahead and round us out there
Speaker 1: with the college football NFL parlay Andrew. I don't know
Speaker 1: if I broke the rules of the show, but I'm
Speaker 1: doing it anyways.
Speaker 2: Hey, if it hits, it doesn't matter. There are no
Speaker 2: rules to winning. So I've it hit, seth We'll have
Speaker 2: you back on.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well I appreciate that. Make sure you
Speaker 1: guys are tailing Andrew at bettingpros dot com, slash ericson
Speaker 1: and maybe I if this hits, maybe I can finally
Speaker 1: get my url short. And yes, I am bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com slash you slash between underscore seth FF backs, so
Speaker 1: a lot of slashes a lot of underscores in there.
Speaker 1: But hopefully we'll be just at SETH soon. But make
Speaker 1: sure you guys are checking out ericson all the wonderful
Speaker 1: work he's doing at BP at Fantasy Pros as well.
Speaker 1: That's going to do it for us today on the
Speaker 1: BP NFL show. Make sure you like this video. If
Speaker 1: you enjoyed it, subscribe to the Bening Pros YouTube channel
Speaker 1: and the podcast feed. Please download the bank Pros app
Speaker 1: and sync your sportsbooks today. For Andrew Erickson, I'm Seth Wilcock.
Speaker 1: Thanks for watching. Take care of y'all.
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