WEBVTT - Best NFL Bets for Week 17 | Top Picks and Predictions (Ep. 632) 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:05.760 All right, and welcome into BP. NFL Christmas has come 0:00:05.960 --> 0:00:08.840 and gone, but we're still stopping your stocking with our 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:11.920 best bets for a Week seventeen of the NFL season. 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:15.120 I'm your host, Seth Wilcock billion for Joey P who 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.840 was unavailable today after having too much gaba ghul at 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:21.120 the Piece of P family dinner last night. But still no, 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:23.160 I'm not alone. I'm joined by a man who had 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.200 a great holiday. I'm much assuming after some unders hitting 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:29.280 both the Chief Steelers and Ravens Texans game. He is 0:00:29.360 --> 0:00:33.280 Andrew Erickson, aka the Undertaker. Happy Week seventeen, brother, how's 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:33.800 the holiday? 0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:37.000 Oh? Holiday was absolutely excellent. A ton of food, overs 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:39.560 on the food and taken to my body, probably way 0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:42.440 too much food. But the unders cash Joe Mixon came 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:44.880 nowhere near his sixty three and a half rushing yards 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:47.440 the lock of the Christmas Day slate. I mean, the 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:49.800 Texans couldn't basically score on offense at all, you know, 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:51.920 getting a safety as they're to be like, wait, what's 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:55.760 the score? Thirty one two? Is a very bizarre game. 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:57.680 But the food was good, the drinks were good, the 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:00.200 family was good. So but I'm happy to be here 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:02.319 today talking about the weeks because we have so many 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:04.280 games still coming up. You know, Mayor had asked me 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:05.959 in our slack that, hey, do you have a pick 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:08.479 for tomorrow? I'm like, wait, is there football on Friday? Too? 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.360 I was, but I wouldn't be surprised at this point. 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:13.360 You know, in the NFL plays on every single day 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:15.360 of the week. Anytime you look up, there may be 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:17.320 an NFL game on. But we're here to make sure 0:01:17.319 --> 0:01:19.200 you have action on all the games you can with 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:22.000 Saturday and Sunday. So let's break it down, seth. 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.119 Yeah, I'm looking forward to man, and it is kind 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:25.920 of tough to keep the calendar straight right now. You 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:28.959 got the holidays, You got about twenty bold games happening 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:31.360 over the next five or six days as well, so 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:34.080 a lot happening in the football world. On today's program, 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:36.640 we're gonna make sure you're invested in Week seventeen of 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:39.319 the NFL season. We'll give you our top ten ats 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:41.520 and total picks. Then i'll give you my parlay of 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:44.080 the week as well. And also before we get going, 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:46.200 I just wanted to thank everyone who's making time for 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:49.080 us during your busy holiday week watching here on YouTube. 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:51.000 And if you are here on YouTube and you enjoy 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:54.000 this type of content, please like this video and subscribe 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:56.920 to the channel if you are new. Also please rate 0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:00.000 and review us wherever you get your audio podcast. Great. 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:03.040 Appreciate the support not just now during the holiday season, 0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:07.360 but all year long here at BP. And also please 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:10.399 download the Betting pros app. It's on iOS or Android. 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:13.080 You can use the sportsbook Sync to automatically track your 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:16.240 bets across all major sports books in one spot. So 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:21.239 when college football, NFL, cricket, soccer, everything's happening this week, 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:23.239 you can track it all in one place on this 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:26.200 Betting Pro sports betting app. So make sure you're checking 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:29.680 out the app, guys. BP app available everywhere. But Erickson, 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:32.480 let's get right into the pick. Starting with Saturday. You 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:36.280 were interested in the Broncos Bengals game. Bengals currently favored 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:38.640 by three points. This was a really tough one for me. 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:41.280 The Broncos been playing great, but the Bengals fighting for 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:42.959 their life every single week. 0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:46.600 Now, Yeah they are, and their playoff chances are basically 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:49.360 non existent at this point. I mean, every probability model 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:51.680 will say that they have a chance, but yeah, considering 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:54.000 the Chiefs locked up with the number one seed and 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:56.720 the Broncos need to lose their next two games for 0:02:56.760 --> 0:02:58.560 the Bengals to get into the playoffs. The Chiefs are 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:01.480 gonna do whatever in their power to rest every single 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:03.239 start to make sure they lose the game against the 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:05.600 Broncos to make sure the Bengals have no shot of 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:08.800 making the postseason. But that's for Week eighteen. Week seventeen, 0:03:08.800 --> 0:03:10.480 the Bengals are going to try to win this game 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:12.840 against Denver, and I like them the spot. I mean, 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:15.360 the Bengals have been one of the most disappointing teams 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:18.919 this season overall, but they've been better as of late. 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.040 And one of the interesting trends I kind of found 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:22.720 with them where I've kind of been back in them 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:24.519 the last couple weeks, is you know, they've been much 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:26.880 better against some of these less formidable opponents. So they've 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.680 been favored twelve times this year, including nine times by 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:31.800 more than a field goal, and that's really kind of 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:34.359 the only time I've been good against the spread seven 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:36.640 to two against the spread when it's been a field goal, 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:39.800 or more so, where you're having this line here, you're 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:42.120 seeing it at three and a half three at most books, 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:44.480 So I like taking the Bengals with the three. They're 0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:46.560 playing at home, this is a game that they have 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:49.400 to win to stay in playoff contention. They don't care 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:51.160 about the other teams that are trying to win this game. 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:53.480 I think the offense is still going to have success here. 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:55.960 Denver's defense has not been good as of late, giving 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.040 up a lot of points over the last couple of weeks. 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:00.360 So I do like the Bengals here in this spot 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:03.080 and in Denver hasn't been as good when they've been 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:05.280 an underdog this season, like they've been very good when 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:07.960 the books are saying, hey, bo Nicks is a favorite 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:09.680 we like to hear in this spot, and they've been 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:14.520 very profitable backing bon Nicks in those situations. But as underdogs, 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.159 they're just four and four against the spread and two 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:19.560 and six straight up. So when they've kind of been 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:22.160 projected to lose games, I sent some of these more 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:25.560 powerhouse teams, they have fallen short of delivering against the number. 0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:28.480 And it's like Joe Burrow three points at home against 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:30.840 bon Knicks, Like sometimes you just got to zoom out 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:33.720 and be like, hey, yeah, way, I feel comfortable laying 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:36.440 Joe Burrow with the points against a rookie quarterback on 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:38.559 the road. Right. Sometimes it can be just that simple, 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:40.920 especially if we know the Bengals are going to score points, right, 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:42.479 and if bon Nicks has to drop back to throw 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:45.200 forty times, I'll take my chances. So I like the 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:47.760 Bengals here at home minus three. 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.200 I hope this one does come true because I have 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:52.880 an AFC West Exact order five to one I put 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:56.680 on preseason, and I need the Broncos continue to lose 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:58.760 some games. The Chargers in them were real close. I 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:00.320 was happy about that. There's a night f FO ball 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:03.840 victory for Los Angeles. Hoping that this one comes true. 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:05.800 Might be telling you on that as well. I do 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.200 like the analysis there from ericson. I'm gonna stick with 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:12.240 this like fifty foot zoom level the youth throughout there, 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:14.279 and I'm gonna take a page out of your book, actually, 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:16.640 and I'm gonna go with an alt total paying a 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:19.000 little bit of juice here for the Las Vegas Raiders 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:22.560 versus the Saints alternate under thirty nine and a half points. 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:25.760 This is minus one thirty eight at DraftKings, and I 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:28.159 never mind buying back a couple points. I felt like 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:30.640 thirty eight and a half where this line was set originally, 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:32.960 was just a little too short for me. But if 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:35.240 Derek Carr doesn't play, this is a game between a 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:37.800 no O'Connell and Spencer Radler. Like It's as simple as 0:05:37.800 --> 0:05:40.440 that for me. The Saints have scored under this total 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:43.080 and two straight games without Derek Carr, and four straight 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:45.440 dating back to two games when they had Derek Carr 0:05:45.480 --> 0:05:49.960 as well. Saints estimated practice report Alvin Kamara Derek Carr 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:54.400 DNPS as of Wednesday, Jawan Johnson also limited. They might 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:57.080 get Chris o'lave back, but he has not played since 0:05:57.080 --> 0:05:59.920 Week eight. Their wide receiver corp currently mvs Cedric will 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:03.159 and a guy named Kevin Austin Junior. So I'm not 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:05.280 worried about the Saints or the Raiders putting up a 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:07.280 lot of points here. The Raiders have hit this under 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:10.640 and four straight games after losing Gardner Minshew. Those games 0:06:10.680 --> 0:06:15.039 were against way better offenses Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Jacksonville. 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.880 They also might be without starting left guard Jackson Powers Johnson, 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:22.080 who was also estimated as an LP the other day, 0:06:22.120 --> 0:06:26.080 and his backup Jordan Meredith who was a DNP on Wednesday. 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:29.040 So I'm gonna go with the under here in the 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:32.600 Spencer Radler versus a O'Connell game on Sunday afternoon. 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:35.920 Look, sometimes you just gotta zoom out on two quarterbacks 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:38.159 that are playing and think, hey, does this mean that 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:40.000 there's gonna be points or no? I mean last week 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:42.000 you got to think that, not even like talking about 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.360 the Saints game, which I mean barely was in a game. Yeah, really, 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:47.480 it was something that was on TV where there were 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:49.520 two NFL teams. I don't know if they were really 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:54.720 playing football, they're doing something. But even the Jaguars Raiders game, right, 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:56.160 you looked at that and like, okay, like this can 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:59.359 be a gross shootout. Yeah, not even close. There's just 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.840 too bad quarterbacks playing bad quarterback play. So I think 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:04.960 you're gonna get more of that here. Again, the only 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:06.680 way I see this going over is when you get 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:10.480 those wacky fumble six pick six year and again you 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:12.680 know that is why it's called gambling at the end 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:14.600 of the day. But I think the process here is 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:17.080 right with your rationale behind this play. So I do 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:18.120 like the under here as well. 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:21.520 Okay, let's go back to the Saturday slate where you 0:07:21.680 --> 0:07:24.880 like the Chargers and the Patriots to also potentially go 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:27.680 over a total at forty two and a half points. 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:29.360 What do you like there? What are you seeing it for? 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.320 This game is gonna kick off at one Eastern time. 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:34.200 Yeah, so this is the first game on the Saturday 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.520 slate at one o'clock on Saturday. So I do like 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:39.480 I like the over in this game. And the reason 0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:42.000 is that the Patriots games, the only way I can 0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:44.320 enjoy watching them anymore is watching Drake may just be 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:48.000 amazing at football because the everyone else something team is terrible. 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:51.080 That's the reason why Austin Hooper is now becoming like 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:53.960 a tight end that's usable in fantasy because he's like 0:07:54.000 --> 0:07:56.760 the second best receiver on the team besides Hunter Henry, 0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:59.600 who's tight end one. And you look at the Patriots, 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:01.920 So they're five and one towards the over at home 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:04.760 this year forty six points per game, so you're seeing 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:07.280 this total around forty two and a half forty three 0:08:07.320 --> 0:08:10.000 points at most books. So I like the over here. 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:12.480 And it's always dangerous right when you're betting on overs 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:14.360 when it comes to the Chargers, right because they're a 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.680 team that is just like notorious for killing game totals. 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:22.200 They usually go shyed towards the under, but you know, eventually, hey, 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.800 you have to have them kind of breakout of that understreak, right. 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:26.520 I think they've only had one game this season on 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:28.720 the road where they've actually gone over the total. But 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:32.280 the Patriots, as I've indicated already, like they're the gift 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:34.559 that keeps on giving during the festive time of the year. 0:08:34.800 --> 0:08:37.360 You just give out overs because of how bad the 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:40.559 defense is and how electric Drake May can be making 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.120 plays downfield, making plays with his legs. You know, I 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:45.680 see similarities between the way Drake May and Justin Herbert play, 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:48.520 Like both really good arms can use their legs. So 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:50.640 I think you're gonna see some some high end quarterback 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:52.360 play here in this matchup. And that's why I like 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:53.920 the over. Again, forty two and a half. That's not 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:55.720 a high bar to pass in any way. This is 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:58.439 not Vegas looking at Hey, this game is going to 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:01.000 be a shootout by no means that are going to 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:02.679 be a shootout. But can't get over forty two and 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:05.280 a half points considering the average has been forty six 0:09:05.320 --> 0:09:07.920 points against all the teams the Patriots have played at 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:10.120 home this year. I think it can. And I also 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:13.320 do like the fact that JK. Dobbins could be coming 0:09:13.320 --> 0:09:16.360 back for the Chargers here the explosive element they need 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:18.599 in their running game that can definitely take advantage of 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.400 a very bad Patriots run defense. So, especially with Dobbins 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:23.760 coming back that's not considered at all in these lines. 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.000 I think he can move off some explosive runs and 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:27.880 help get this game over the total. So it give 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.640 me the over forty two and a half Patriots and Chargers. 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.200 Okay, I'm gonna stay in this game. I'm gonna actually 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:37.600 back the Chargers against the spread here minus four. They've 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:40.199 been a top five team ats this season at ten 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:43.200 and five, and Jim Harball's teams, whether it's last year 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:46.040 at Michigan or here, with the Chargers, they take care 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:48.280 of business when they should. They've covered in eight of 0:09:48.320 --> 0:09:52.079 ten games when they've been favored this season. And while 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:54.080 I'm like you and I really do like Drake Man. 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:57.120 I've wrote him into the Fantasy Championships in a couple 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.520 of leagues. I like what he's done for this team, 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:01.720 But I don't know if you feel the same but 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:04.160 it feels kind of like a letdown spot after getting 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:06.599 up last week in Buffalo, and I don't like the 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:10.400 vibes in New England as a whole. DRAWDMEO. I don't 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:12.440 want to, you know, call for anyone's job or anything 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:15.079 like that, but called as players soft earlier this year 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:18.480 through their offensive linemen under the bus last week as 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:22.440 well after that horrible play with Ramandre Stevenson. I think 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:24.600 this is a solid matchup for the Chargers, who, as 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:27.720 you alluded to, they might be getting JK. Dobbins back, 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:29.760 and if they don't, they need to find a way 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:32.360 to open up this passing game. The Patriots might be 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:34.680 the cure to fix as well. They've allowed an eight 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.240 pointy a dot that's the third highest clip and the 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:40.600 seventh most air yards this season. They've also have the 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:44.520 seventh fewest interceptions against quarterback seven this season. So I'm 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:47.040 expecting Justin Herbert to tee off in this game. Fine 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:50.080 Laden McConkey, Fine Quintin Johnston downfield. So I'll go ahead 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:52.679 and take the Chargers minus four against the Patriots. 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:55.480 If I wasn't a Patriots fan, I would agree with 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:57.559 you you said, because I guess I think I think 0:10:57.559 --> 0:10:59.439 you're spot on. Just I can't. I don't like betting 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:01.360 it because not on for me, Like I watched them 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:04.280 like to only I'll take them with the points usually, 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:06.520 you know, last week with like like plus fourteen, so 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:08.200 that was fine. It was like a fun sweat and 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:10.160 then they're up fourteen nothing you think, oh, could I 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:13.160 win this game? Not quite, but I agree with you. 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:14.960 I think the Chargers is probably the sharp play here. 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.720 Again goes back to zoom out on the coaches. Right, 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:21.480 you got hardball against raw Mayo. Right, I don't think 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:23.920 that we would be surprised at any Like the coaching 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:27.160 mismatch is significant and again like Drick may but he's 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:29.480 not quite at the level of Justin Herbert, so you 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:31.600 see a lot of advantages. And yeah, the Patriots are 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:33.640 playing at home. I can't remember the last time they 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.599 won a home game totally. I think it might have 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:38.840 been against the Jets. I don't honestly remember It's it's 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:41.480 been a while. So yeah, I think you're you're pretty 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:43.080 safe here. Back in the Bolts. 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.640 I'm glad you don't bet against your own team because 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.200 I'm the same way. Like occasionally I will back the 0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:50.800 Steelers or Penn State when I when I'm feeling good 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:53.360 vibes around the team. But yesterday, my my cousin walks 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:55.400 into the room, Hey, you betting the Steelers today. I'm 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:57.840 like no, She's like, well, did you bet against them? 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:00.679 And like, because my uncle he always had his favorite 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.360 teams the Eagles, so you'll hedge against himself every single week. 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:05.439 I'm like, no, I'm ride with the boys, you know 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:07.800 what I mean. I'm not I'm going down swinging. So 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:10.240 I would never do you have you ever hedged against 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:12.240 your your favorite team? Because I will never do that. 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:15.280 I don't think I've had a situation where I felt 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:17.040 the need to do it, Like that's why I bet 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:18.760 the Like my way version of hedging is like, that's 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:20.720 why I bet the over games because yeah, yeah, I 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.079 root for Drake May. Like that's basically like why I 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.880 enjoyed Patriots games because I know the defense can't do anything, 0:12:26.040 --> 0:12:27.679 so it's like they're gonna give up points. I know that. 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:29.560 That's kind of me betting against them, and then I'm 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:31.560 betting for them and rooting for them by betting the 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:34.240 game total over, which hey, that means Drake May is 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:36.840 balling out doing things, and and again I root for 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.280 turnovers and touchdowns. Like again, never can never go wrong 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:42.480 with root for touchdowns, man, never go wrong. 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.079 Absolutely, And hopefully you guys can hold on to a 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:47.680 high pick. Maybe some Travis Hunter coming to town next 0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:48.600 year for the Patriots. 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.079 I don't know if they can about any any receiver 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:55.200 of any type come anywhere near Patriots. That's that's a rookie. 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:58.040 Please keep them away. Like I don't want to ruin 0:12:58.080 --> 0:12:59.000 any any player. 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.959 I don't want to ruin their very fair because even 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:05.760 we've seen some struggles, some slow starts from Marvin Harrison 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:09.679 Junior down there in Arizona. You like the Cardinals potentially 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:13.079 this week in an underdog spot against the Rams on 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:15.640 Saturday night, eight fifteen pm Eastern Time. What are you 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:17.880 thinking here for Arizona Los Angeles Herrickson. 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:20.599 I just think that this one at plus six and 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:24.160 a half is too many points for a divisional matchup. Look, 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:26.959 the Cardinals aren't some garbage team. Yes, have they been 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:29.679 like super disappointing, especially over the last month. Yeah, yeah, 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.240 because they've had a cupcake schedule. Though they couldn't beat 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.000 the Seahawks, they couldn't beat the Panthers, but they've also 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:36.640 had games where like they went down to the wire 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:39.040 with like the Minnesota Vikings. They also killed the Rams 0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:41.440 earlier this season. Now that was a while ago, but 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:43.880 just like learning you know, from looking at a lot 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:46.720 of these spreads this year, these divisional matchups, right, they 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:49.760 never go what it looks like on paper, like they're 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:51.840 always way more wacky and things. And when you were 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:54.360 given the luxury of six and a half points for 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:57.319 a divisional matchup against the Rams playing at home, where 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:00.160 you know they don't have home field advantage. So that's 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:02.320 why I really it's really like less about like the 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:05.040 Cardinals themselves, right, because I've seen them. They're obviously disappointing, 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:07.040 but like that's why the number is what it is, 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:10.120 because they've been such a terrible team to want to back. 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:13.000 And and that being said, I mean they've covered the 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.719 spread eight of the last eleven road games. You look 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:18.080 at the Rams, the team that's played on the road 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.640 has usually covered their games. Nine of the last eleven 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.040 games for the Rams, the road team has actually covered 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.280 the spread. Wow, the Rams have been a really good 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:27.320 team that I've been on when they've been on the 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.080 road because they've got a lot of suppressed lines as 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:31.920 a result. But now you're kind of getting the opposite 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:35.720 here where the Cardinals are getting no credit whatsoever despite 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:37.680 being seven and eight, being a team that already beat 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.800 the Rams this year, and yes they're out of the playoffs, 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:43.320 but looks like James Connor's gonna shoot up in this game. 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:46.440 They have Trey Benson. So and I mean the Rams, 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:48.960 what were they doing against just last week? Like that 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:50.360 was a game that we thought could be a shootout, 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:52.200 and then they're stalling out, they're not moving the ball, 0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:54.760 like they've had enough bad games this year. The Rams 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:56.680 when they went on the road against the Saints, they 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:58.880 could barely score points, went on the road against the Jets, 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:00.680 could barely score You're like, wait, that's going on. So 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:03.480 they're not exactly the most consistent team either, and given 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:05.680 that the divisional game, I just think this is too 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:07.920 many points. Do I think the Cardinals win? No, not necessarily. 0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:09.640 I think the Rams find a way to squeak out 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.360 a win. But I've seen them play teams way too 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:14.640 close that they should have totally blown out to have 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:17.040 confidence that they're gonna win this game by a touchdown. 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.120 So I let the Cardinals here plus six and a half. 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:22.520 Yeah, the Rams are such a tough team to figure 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:26.160 out because that inconsistency. One week they can barely scrape 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:28.360 by the Jets, and then the week prior it's like 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:31.400 they're lighting up the Bills. And yeah, definitely an interesting team. 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:34.000 Hopefully they can figure some things out late down the stretch. 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:36.760 They're obviously in that NFC West battle against the Seahawks 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:39.560 for the division, probably their only way in the postseason. 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:41.720 So excited to see kind of how that shakes up. 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:44.280 I'm gonna go to the Sunday slate for my third pick. 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:47.160 I'm going with the Dolphins Browns under forty and a 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.480 half points. And this is moving. I did see this 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:52.600 just move. After I place this bet to thirty nine 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:54.040 and a half, I think it's still at forty and 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:56.280 a half at I think bet three six five if 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.840 you're over there, bet rivers as well. And I just 0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:01.840 want a way to fade the Browns against the Dolphins 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:04.920 because Kevin Stefanski, he's a buzzkill, Like he's the guy 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:07.920 you're not inviting to Christmas dinner because he's like, oh, 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.120 let's just start. Dorian Thompson Robinson for the rest of 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:12.920 the season, ruin everyone's fantasy hopes, whether you had Jerry 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:15.640 Judy or Jamis or Najoku, anyone who're rolling out there. 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:17.480 But then I was like really thinking about it, and 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.280 I was like, can I actually trust the Dolphins playing 0:16:20.360 --> 0:16:22.880 in the elements? It will be a little bit warmer 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.360 in Ohio on Sunday, but there's a seventy nine percent 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.600 chance of rain up along the shores of Lake Erie. 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:32.080 So I don't trust the Dolphins. I don't trust the Browns. 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:34.400 The Browns have averaged just nine points in the past 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:36.880 three weeks, and that was with Jamis Winston in two 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.800 of those games. In the five games that Dorian Thompson 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:42.800 Robinson has started, the Browns are averaging nine point six 0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:47.160 points per game. Nijoku estimate DNP. Jerry Judy limited at 0:16:47.160 --> 0:16:50.280 practice this week as well. DTR also isn't at one 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:53.000 hundred percent with a cap, but is trending towards playing. 0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.400 The Dolphins also pretty banged up. They've played to the 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:58.800 under in two straight good weather games against the forty 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:02.920 nine ers in Houston. Better offenses here and estimate DMPs 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:06.280 for them included left tackle Tarryan Armstead and wide receiver 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:09.399 Jalen Watles. So I also like the Browns under sixteen 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:12.240 and a half team total based on DTR's previous history, 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:14.159 But give me the under forty and a half in 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:17.120 a weird four or five Eastern time kickoff in Cleveland. 0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:18.560 I don't know if any was gonna be at this 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:22.160 game ericson, I have no idea, Like, if you're in Cleveland, 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:24.199 if you're a Browns fan, are you going to this 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:25.160 game on Sunday? 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:30.119 Oh? Man? This this Why does this game exist? Like? 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:33.320 Why is this on the I mean there's better ways, see, 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:34.919