Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea.
Speaker 2: We rarely do this, but we do it today. We're
Speaker 2: going to devote our single best idea to one lonely economist.
Speaker 2: Stephen Englander came out of the Yale University, combined with
Speaker 2: Evanson and agricultural economics, and was definitive decades ago. It's
Speaker 2: city group in what's called cross rates, not the euro
Speaker 2: and the yen, the yen, the dollar, cable, sterling, the dollar,
Speaker 2: but on all the other nuances that were out there.
Speaker 2: That's how you migrate to Bill Winters, the standard charter
Speaker 2: bank with a huge international and em almost the stereotype
Speaker 2: is a Pacific ocean feel Singapore, Australia up to Hong Kong, etc.
Speaker 2: Englander is definitive in foreign exchange and bringing it over
Speaker 2: to economics now. He is riveted on what this FED
Speaker 2: will do given the dual mandate, including collapsing employment. Steven
Speaker 2: Englander on a September fifty basis point rate.
Speaker 3: Cut, Ultimately I think yes, and let me be clear,
Speaker 3: because we think that they do fifty and then they
Speaker 3: pause because GDP numbers aren't bad. Productivity looks like it's
Speaker 3: actually pretty good.
Speaker 2: You sure. Sharma said that in the Ft today.
Speaker 3: And the you know, you look at the labor numbers,
Speaker 3: as you know, they're really mediocre. It's sluggish, softish. But
Speaker 3: you know, as you know, I was at Lehman's in
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight. This is not a two thousand
Speaker 3: and eight type of labor market. That's not a twenty
Speaker 3: April twenty twenty labor market. It's a mediocre, sluggish, poor
Speaker 3: labor market where you know, you probably should get closer
Speaker 3: to neutral, but nothing is falling off a cliff.
Speaker 2: With Steven Englander on a bigger broader theme, which is, Okay,
Speaker 2: we're all using AI. It's all changing our lives. Maybe
Speaker 2: it's like late nineteen ninety four, early ninety five in
Speaker 2: terms of technology changing the productivity the efficiency of America.
Speaker 2: But what's it mean for the FED here? Englander on AI.
Speaker 3: You know, we all talk about AI all day long,
Speaker 3: and I think that that's going to be the real
Speaker 3: decisor for how the economy breaks. You know, in practice,
Speaker 3: given the absence of knowledge, it just means that you
Speaker 3: sort of go slowly in the direction that you think
Speaker 3: that data are telling you. I mean, there's no straw
Speaker 3: here with which to make bricks. And you know, you
Speaker 3: can critique the productivity data very easily as well. So
Speaker 3: I think that they sort of you know, you take
Speaker 3: a step, you see what happens. Take another step, see
Speaker 3: what happens. If something bad happens, you stop, or you
Speaker 3: step back a little bit. If it looks good, you
Speaker 3: keep going.
Speaker 2: Steven Angeloder the standard Charter Bank doctor Englander looks for
Speaker 2: the revision statistic to be dramatic negative three quarters of
Speaker 2: a million bodies maybe out two excuse me, seven hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty thousand bodies out to one million. Many others,
Speaker 2: including Bloomberg's Anda Wong, looking for a quiescent statistic of say,
Speaker 2: negative four hundred thousand. So I'm even more benign than that.
Speaker 2: It's a big debate, and we'll engage that debate tomorrow.
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