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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea.

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Speaker 2: We rarely do this, but we do it today. We're

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Speaker 2: going to devote our single best idea to one lonely economist.

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Speaker 2: Stephen Englander came out of the Yale University, combined with

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Speaker 2: Evanson and agricultural economics, and was definitive decades ago. It's

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Speaker 2: city group in what's called cross rates, not the euro

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Speaker 2: and the yen, the yen, the dollar, cable, sterling, the dollar,

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Speaker 2: but on all the other nuances that were out there.

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Speaker 2: That's how you migrate to Bill Winters, the standard charter

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Speaker 2: bank with a huge international and em almost the stereotype

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Speaker 2: is a Pacific ocean feel Singapore, Australia up to Hong Kong, etc.

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Speaker 2: Englander is definitive in foreign exchange and bringing it over

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Speaker 2: to economics now. He is riveted on what this FED

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Speaker 2: will do given the dual mandate, including collapsing employment. Steven

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Speaker 2: Englander on a September fifty basis point rate.

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Speaker 3: Cut, Ultimately I think yes, and let me be clear,

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Speaker 3: because we think that they do fifty and then they

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Speaker 3: pause because GDP numbers aren't bad. Productivity looks like it's

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Speaker 3: actually pretty good.

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Speaker 2: You sure. Sharma said that in the Ft today.

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Speaker 3: And the you know, you look at the labor numbers,

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Speaker 3: as you know, they're really mediocre. It's sluggish, softish. But

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Speaker 3: you know, as you know, I was at Lehman's in

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Speaker 3: two thousand and eight. This is not a two thousand

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Speaker 3: and eight type of labor market. That's not a twenty

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Speaker 3: April twenty twenty labor market. It's a mediocre, sluggish, poor

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Speaker 3: labor market where you know, you probably should get closer

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Speaker 3: to neutral, but nothing is falling off a cliff.

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Speaker 2: With Steven Englander on a bigger broader theme, which is, Okay,

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Speaker 2: we're all using AI. It's all changing our lives. Maybe

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Speaker 2: it's like late nineteen ninety four, early ninety five in

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Speaker 2: terms of technology changing the productivity the efficiency of America.

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Speaker 2: But what's it mean for the FED here? Englander on AI.

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Speaker 3: You know, we all talk about AI all day long,

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Speaker 3: and I think that that's going to be the real

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Speaker 3: decisor for how the economy breaks. You know, in practice,

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Speaker 3: given the absence of knowledge, it just means that you

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Speaker 3: sort of go slowly in the direction that you think

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Speaker 3: that data are telling you. I mean, there's no straw

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Speaker 3: here with which to make bricks. And you know, you

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Speaker 3: can critique the productivity data very easily as well. So

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Speaker 3: I think that they sort of you know, you take

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Speaker 3: a step, you see what happens. Take another step, see

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Speaker 3: what happens. If something bad happens, you stop, or you

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Speaker 3: step back a little bit. If it looks good, you

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Speaker 3: keep going.

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Speaker 2: Steven Angeloder the standard Charter Bank doctor Englander looks for

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Speaker 2: the revision statistic to be dramatic negative three quarters of

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Speaker 2: a million bodies maybe out two excuse me, seven hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty thousand bodies out to one million. Many others,

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Speaker 2: including Bloomberg's Anda Wong, looking for a quiescent statistic of say,

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Speaker 2: negative four hundred thousand. So I'm even more benign than that.

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Speaker 2: It's a big debate, and we'll engage that debate tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: I'm Bloomberg Surveillance. It is a podcast on Apple, on Spotify,

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Speaker 2: on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea