1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,280 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:05,559 Speaker 1: your bets. This meet Joey p joe pisa Pe and 3 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: it's time to talk DFS. 4 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:09,559 Speaker 2: Four Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. 5 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 1: Don't forget you can optimize one hundred and fifty lineups 6 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: over fancypros dot com slash optimizer today. 7 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 3: You can play around with the. 8 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: Optimizer all day long, all weekend long, and then upload 9 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: your lineups directly to fandel and DK. 10 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 2: Sounds pretty good to me. 11 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: And don't forget to make sure you're downloading the Betting 12 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: Pros app and for iOS members, you get three three 13 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 1: days of premium when you do. Debro, Derek Brown, the 14 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 1: King of Bros, and I are gonna break down the 15 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: four games slate for this weekend. We're gonna start with 16 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens. The total for this game is forty 17 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 1: three and a half. They're hosting the Houston Texans. So Debro, 18 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: Baltimore coming off the bye, Houston coming off a huge 19 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: win at home. So what are the big pieces the 20 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: little pieces that you like in this game? You want 21 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: to try to jimmy into some lineups. 22 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 3: Both quarterbacks are firmly in play in this game, Joe, 23 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 3: and I'm gonna bring up CJ. Stroud, particularly because everybody's 24 00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 3: gonna play Lamar Jackson. I'm totally with it. You could 25 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 3: throw on Houston, We've seen that in a number of weeks. 26 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 3: But I want to spend some time on c J. 27 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 3: Stroud here. Man. I think people are gonna shy it 28 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 3: away because they see Baltimore and see the pass defense 29 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 3: and say, Okay, we don't need to play him. We're 30 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 3: gonna shy away. We're not going that way. And while 31 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 3: the Ravens secondary has been good since Week fourteen, allowing 32 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 3: the twelfth lowest yards per attempt, six to lowest pass rating, 33 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 3: they've also given up volume man in that same span, 34 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 3: seventh most passing yards per game, allowed twelfth most passing touchdowns. 35 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 3: So they have shown some Geeve and CJ. Stroud just 36 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 3: took a part one of the best defenses in the 37 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 3: NFL last round of playoffs. Can he not do that again? 38 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 3: So I'm on for playing CJ. Stroud again. Lamar's in play. 39 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 3: If you're looking at running back plays. The only guy 40 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 3: of this game, I'm gonna go with his Devin Singletary again. 41 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 3: He is still too cheap for the role that he's had. 42 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 3: I mean, we're talking about a guy that since in 43 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 3: four of his last five games, he's played sixty two 44 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 3: percent or higher the snaps, averaging in those four games 45 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 3: twenty two points five touches. I've talked about it in 46 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 3: a number of weeks. You can run on Baltimore. So 47 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 3: Devin Singletary is one of my favorite running back plays 48 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 3: of the slate. Into the pass game options. Man, look 49 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 3: if you're playing Stroud, if you're not playing Stroud, we 50 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 3: know where the volume goes in Houston right now, and 51 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 3: it is all day, all the time. Nico Collins. He 52 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 3: is absorbing a monster target share since week sixteen thirty 53 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 3: percent target chair forty five point two percent of the 54 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 3: air yards for Houston and a whopping This number blew 55 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 3: my mind when I wrote this up for the primer 56 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 3: Joe forty nine percent of the team's receiving yards. Dude, 57 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 3: like he is their passing attack. So whether you'd play 58 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 3: Stroud or you don't, he is a fantastic play on 59 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 3: the entire slate. But continue to move down the troughh here. 60 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 3: If you're playing Lamar, it's say Flowers or Odell Beckham, 61 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 3: and Odell Beckham's the guy that I really want to 62 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 3: talk about here because he's the guy that's destroyed too 63 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 3: High coverage, which since Week fourteen, Houston has utilized too 64 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 3: High the third highest rate in the NFL. Weeks one 65 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 3: through seventeen, Beckham ranked second behind only Mark Andrews on 66 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 3: the team and target per route run and yards per 67 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 3: rout run against too High, while also having a thirty 68 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,239 Speaker 3: point seven percent air arch heer. So what we've seen 69 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 3: out of Odell Beckham, we've seen spike games, We've seen 70 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 3: some games where he plays thirty percent of the snaps. 71 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 3: It's go time, baby, Like it is playoffs, it's win 72 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 3: or freaking go home. So if Beckham is your best 73 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 3: guy against too High, assuming okay, maybe Mark Andrews plays 74 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 3: and he's in play. If he does, then Beckham should 75 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 3: be the next guy that you're looking to plug in. 76 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 3: If you're playing on the two game or the four gamer, 77 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 3: you're playing Lamar Jackson, but moving over to tight ends. 78 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 3: If Mark Andrews plays, he's in play, as simple as that. Now, 79 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 3: how much you want to get cute or you want 80 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 3: to play him, that's up for debate. Because there's a 81 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 3: lot of really good tight ends on this slate, and 82 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 3: Dalton Schultz is one of them. Baltimore, Yes, the repass 83 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 3: defense has been good, but since Week ten they've allowed 84 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 3: the fourth most receiving yards on the sixth highest starts 85 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 3: perception to tight end. So whether or not you're playing CJ. Stroud, 86 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 3: Schultz is firmly in play. 87 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next game here, 88 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: Green Bay traveling to San Francisco. Another big spread here, 89 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 1: and also a big total fifty fifty and a half. 90 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: This is the range you're getting right now on betting pros. 91 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: So obviously the San Francisco pieces are very expensive. Just 92 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 1: wrapped up a show and the props where Welsh made 93 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 1: a lot of good points about Brandon Ayuk. Is that 94 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: a guy you're feeling this one? And also is this 95 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 1: a game you want to run back? Because it's got 96 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: a high total? 97 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 2: Can it exceed the high number of fifty already? 98 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 3: I don't know if it's gonna get above fifty, and 99 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 3: that's only because of the pace, because both of these 100 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 3: offenses run extremely slow. But is there going to be 101 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 3: a lot of scoring in this game? I do believe that, 102 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 3: and then, so for me, if you're not getting contrarian 103 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 3: and playing CJ. Stroud, the other guy you could play 104 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 3: is Jordan Love. How many good defenses do we need 105 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,479 Speaker 3: to see him carve up to understand that Jordan Love 106 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 3: is the real deal, Like he is playing out of 107 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 3: his freaking mind. And as good as San Francis SCO's 108 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 3: pass defense has been since week nine, they're also giving 109 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 3: up a lot of production to play action passing, which again, 110 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 3: since week nine, Love has the third most play action 111 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 3: dropbacks in the NFL over that stretch. Well, actually, over 112 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 3: the last six games, excuse me, San Francisco has allowed 113 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 3: the third highest s charts per attempt and passer rating 114 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:22,159 Speaker 3: and the fourth highest CPOE to play action passes. So 115 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 3: Jordan Love, if he has a good day, that is 116 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 3: going to be a huge part of it. And brock 117 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 3: Perty's in play. He's in play. He's been in play 118 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 3: every single freaking week in the regular season. Of course, 119 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 3: he's in play here. Green Bay's pass defense has been struggling, 120 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 3: but moving on. Both the running backs in this game 121 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 3: are firmly in play as well. We saw Aaron Jones 122 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 3: just blow up. He is fully healthy at the right 123 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 3: time of the season. And if you look at what 124 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,239 Speaker 3: San Francisco has done, they've had times this season where 125 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 3: they've been a really really good run defense and we 126 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 3: shy away and say, oh no, no. And there's been 127 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 3: other times where it's we need to play running backs 128 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,720 Speaker 3: against them because their contrarion plays and this run defense 129 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,039 Speaker 3: is overrated. And if you look since Week thirteen, that's 130 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 3: firmly the spot for San Francisco. They allowed the sixth 131 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 3: highest explosive run rate and the highest yards per carry 132 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,679 Speaker 3: to zone runs five point zero six yards per carried 133 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 3: his own runs, which comprise sixty two percent of Jones's volume. 134 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 3: I mean, I don't need anybody. I don't have to 135 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:19,840 Speaker 3: really like go through a long spiel to tell you 136 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 3: to play CMC. I mean, play him, don't play him? 137 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 3: Is he good? 138 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: I'm never sure? Is that Christian Well? I guess here's 139 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: the question. The question is this, you know we haven't 140 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: seen him. You know he did get hurt. It's been 141 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:34,159 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks now, So is there anything to 142 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: fading him at the high cost with that uncertainty or 143 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: you think maybe that's opportunity because too many people might 144 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 1: do that because of the high salary and the recent injury. 145 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: I think because it's an important I think it's a 146 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: good question to. 147 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:47,159 Speaker 2: Ask ourselves here this weekend. 148 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, it is, And I think to fully fade CMC 149 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 3: is reckless. What I think you need to do with 150 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 3: your builds is getting some exposure to CMC. And if 151 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 3: you're run one team and you want to fade him, 152 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 3: I'm totally fine with that because he's probably gonna be 153 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 3: extremely popular, like he's probably on a four gamer. I 154 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 3: would say he's gonna end up somewhere around fifty to 155 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 3: fifty five percent. And is that extreme uber ridiculous chalk. No, 156 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 3: he won't get to that spot because of the price tag. 157 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 3: But if you're looking at is he going to be 158 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 3: a popular play? Is their leverage to be had by 159 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 3: fading him? Because if he scores twenty two or twenty 160 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 3: five points, if you can get that out of Aaron 161 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 3: Jones or Devin Singletary or somebody else, then the fade 162 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 3: call for him is right. So I think it depends 163 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 3: on how you're building your lineups, and if you're not 164 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 3: playing a CMC, then you need to get another forty 165 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 3: nine or into your lineups because we know that they 166 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 3: are going to score points, Joe. If they don't go 167 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 3: all to CMC, somebody else is gonna benefit. And so 168 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 3: unlike Welsh, my favorite forty nine er this week is 169 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 3: Deebo Samuel. I love Deebo Samuel. And this all comes 170 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 3: back to you and I have talked about this a 171 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 3: ton this year, and it is Debos Samuel versus Too 172 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 3: High always. And you have a green Bay Packers pass 173 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 3: defense that since week seventeen has the fourth highest rate 174 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 3: of too High. Now since week eleven, and we're talking 175 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 3: about a sample where Deebo, Kittle, and Ayuk have all 176 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 3: been on the field, Devo has crushed against Too High. 177 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 3: We're talking about a guy as a twenty seven percent 178 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,640 Speaker 3: target chair, thirty eight percent first reach here. So while 179 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 3: Brandon Ayuk is in play because he's very good against 180 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 3: Too High as well, he has not been the preferred 181 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 3: option for San Francisco against Too High. That's Debo. So 182 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 3: on the San Francisco side, I mean it's Devo's in play. 183 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,439 Speaker 3: Ayuk is in play. I love George Kittle out of 184 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:41,679 Speaker 3: this game because again Green Bay is giving up a 185 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 3: ton of production to tight ends. On the green Bay side, 186 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 3: it's Dicey Man. 187 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: So like I like the Dobbs game last week, I 188 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 1: think everybody runs to him, whereas I think you run 189 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: back to Jayden Reid and try to go the other direction. 190 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 1: So if I'm saying, friend, that's my game plan, I'm like, Okay, Well, 191 00:08:57,880 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: Dobbs was the guy last week. We can't let that 192 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 1: happen to us again. 193 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 3: That's true now if you look at their usage throughout 194 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:07,199 Speaker 3: the season and as well as last week. The problem 195 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 3: with which Screen Bay wide receiver do I play is 196 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 3: the problem is that, like they run a committee and 197 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 3: most these guys are not full time players. So like 198 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 3: Dobbs had the ceiling game last week, I'm being on 199 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 3: Dobbs again. Well, I'll correct myself. I was not in 200 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 3: on Dobbs last week. I am this week looking at 201 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 3: he's the only guy in that entire wide receiver room 202 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 3: that had over a fifty three percent route run rate 203 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 3: last week. Everybody else was below that. And part of that, 204 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 3: you could say this a little bit of noise because 205 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 3: of the blowout aspect of that game, which is true, 206 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 3: but Dobbs was still their only full time guy, so 207 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 3: he's firmly in play, especially if you look at what 208 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 3: he's done versus Cover three Cover four, which since week fourteen, 209 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 3: San Francisco is running on fifty four percent of their snaps. 210 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 3: He leads the team with a twenty five percent target 211 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 3: per route run rate and six d Z on targets 212 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,199 Speaker 3: against those two coverage types. So if you're playing Dobbs, 213 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 3: I mean, if you're playing Love, Dobbs is my favorite 214 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:04,559 Speaker 3: stacking partner. And again, if you want to get contrarian 215 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 3: and either your double stacking him or you want the leverage, 216 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 3: then yes, I'm with you. I think that you go 217 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 3: back to Jay and Reid because again he's been really 218 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 3: good against Cover three, Cover four, twenty three percent target 219 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 3: per oup run rate, two point zero yards per route run. 220 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 3: So I think there's been a lot of points in 221 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 3: this game. There are ways to be different. One is 222 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 3: fading CMC, playing Debo over AUK, or playing George Kittle 223 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 3: over all of them. 224 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 2: This week, don't forget everybody. 225 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: Chris Welsh and Scott Bachman will be live on the 226 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channels Sunday afternoon at two forty five 227 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: pm Eastern for the Divisional round matchup between the Tampa 228 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions. We'll be showcasing live 229 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: bets for every drive. With Locker, an interactive NFL experience 230 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: that puts you right at the heart of the NFL 231 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 1: action as you watch live games, make predictions on upcoming 232 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: offensive drives, and make money quickly. It's simple, it's fun, 233 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 1: and rewards your sports savvy with real cash. They have 234 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: an offer going on right now where you can compete 235 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: against our top analysts for a chance to grab a 236 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: share of five thousand dollars in prizes. Don't just watch 237 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: the game, be part of it with Locker. Download the 238 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 1: app now from the link in the description. Be there 239 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: for every thrilling play and turn your predictions into profit 240 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: with Locker, where the fans. 241 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 3: Get off the bench and into the game. 242 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: All right, next one here on the slate, we've got 243 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Forty eight and 244 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 1: a half is the total for this one. Alman Rossain 245 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,199 Speaker 1: Brown might be the easiest play in cash. It could 246 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 1: be seventy five eighty percent rostered in a cash game 247 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: scenerio with not gonna matter to me because he's just 248 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: so solid there. And look, these are two secondaries that 249 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 1: have struggled. So this seems like an over to me, 250 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 1: and it seems like another game to cherry picks and pieces. 251 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: So I'm on Rossaint Brown aside because that's an easy one. 252 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 1: Who else between Tampa and Detroit is appealing to you. 253 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 3: So I'll say this only short slates. You have to 254 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 3: make stances. You have to say okay, because you can't 255 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 3: play everybody. Even if you're playing one fifties, you can't 256 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 3: play everybody, so you need to make stances. One of 257 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 3: my stances of this slate, I'm full fading both of 258 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 3: these backfields. You have two top tier run defenses. I 259 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 3: mean legit. Since Week fourteen, Detroit's all on the fewest 260 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 3: rushing arts per game. Tampa's right behind him at number two. 261 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,199 Speaker 3: So forget all the running backs in this game. I'm 262 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 3: not on any of them. I love this slate because 263 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 3: there's so many quarterback options to go with Joey and 264 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 3: so many high totals that yes, Baker Mayfield and Jeer 265 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 3: Golf are firmly in play. Both of these are past 266 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 3: funnel defenses. Again, if I'm fading the running backs in 267 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 3: a game where there's a forty eight and a half total, 268 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 3: then we got to pick some parts or pieces. I 269 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 3: think both of these teams get there this week. As 270 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 3: far as scoring points through the air, so Mayfield and 271 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 3: Jered Golf are firmly in play. You talked about amin Row, 272 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 3: He's a smash play the other guy in this game. 273 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 3: If you're not playing Aminah, you need to play Mike Evans. 274 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,280 Speaker 3: And I'm curious where he comes in as far as 275 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 3: like how popular he is, Probably not very popular one. 276 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:57,599 Speaker 3: He's coming off the game that really he let a 277 00:12:57,600 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 3: lot of people down myself, including if I would have 278 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 3: played DeVonta Smith and Kate Aughton over Mike Evans and 279 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 3: Dallas Goddard last week, we'd be having a very different 280 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 3: conversation because I would have been a lot lot richer 281 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 3: but didn't happen. But Mike Evans this week, I think 282 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 3: he destroys Detroit lots of single high eleventh highest rate 283 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 3: since week seventeen. And Mike Evans, We've talked about it 284 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 3: all year. Single high has been his bag. Maybe twenty 285 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 3: six percent target chair, three point zero yards per route run. 286 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 3: If you're playing Baker Mayfield, you can double stack him 287 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 3: with one of Chris Godwin or Kate Oughton Godwin is 288 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 3: my favorite out of those two options. And if you 289 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 3: want the value play of the week, it's Josh Reynolds. 290 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 3: He had a ninety percent route run rate last week, 291 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 3: had a twenty five percent target chair forty two percent 292 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 3: air yard chair. And Tampa Bay, we know their secondary 293 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 3: has struggled all year, especially against perimeter wide receivers, So 294 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:54,559 Speaker 3: Josh Reynolds. Look, I think a lot of different ways 295 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 3: to start building lineups. I'm starting a lot of my 296 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 3: builds this week Joey with Odell Beckham Junior and Josh Reynolds, 297 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 3: and then I'm building it out from there with those 298 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 3: two cheap pieces. But last guy I'll bring up here 299 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 3: talked about Catot and he's in play Detroit since week ten. 300 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 3: Eleventh most receiving arts, third highest yards perception to tight ends. 301 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 3: Sam Laporte is the best tight end play of the 302 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 3: entire freaking slate. Again, the despite the injury concerns for 303 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 3: him as well. I mean, because I limited last week, 304 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 3: I think, well he was actually not limited. I was 305 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 3: surprised how he played eighty percent of the snaps. Dude. 306 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, it's a matter of is he, you know, 307 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: a decoy or is he actually, you know, ready to 308 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: be Sam Laporte again. I think that's the big question 309 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 1: we have here. 310 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 3: I think he's ready to be Sam Laporte again. And 311 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 3: because if he was more injured or limited than what 312 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 3: I because I thought he was gonna come out and 313 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 3: play thirty forty percent of the snaps, be a red 314 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 3: zone guy. This dude played eighty percent of the snaps, 315 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 3: had a seventy three percent route run rate. So I 316 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 3: think that another week from the injury where he played 317 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 3: more than I ever thought he was going to play, 318 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 3: I think we see full or close to full Sam 319 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 3: Laporta this week, and it is a fantastic matchup. Man like. 320 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 3: Since Week seventeen, Tampa Bay has had the tenth highest 321 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 3: single high rate, and if it's not been Amana versus 322 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 3: single high, it has been semi ballgame this year versus 323 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 3: single high twenty two percent target share, two point six 324 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 3: yards per route run. Tampa Bay has been one of 325 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 3: the worst defenses in the NFL at defending tight ends. 326 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 3: Since Week ten, they're allowing the most receding yards in 327 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 3: the NFL and the most fantasy points to opposing tight end. 328 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 3: Sam Laporta is the tight end play of the week. 329 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 1: All right, last one here, we've got the Buffalo Bills 330 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: hosting the Kansasity Chiefs. Forty five and a half is 331 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: the number for this one. These are two quarterbacks and 332 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 1: get out there and run. Obviously very high priced quarterbacks too, 333 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 1: So we talked about, you know, going down to Stroud 334 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: or Love or somebody of that ilk. But if you 335 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: want Allen or Mahomes, it's going to be expensive for 336 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 1: you in terms of what you like in this game too. Obviously, 337 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,520 Speaker 1: I think it's pretty simple right now. Kansas City is Mahomes, 338 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: It's Kelsey the check o, Rice, like you know who 339 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: the pieces are. Yeah, that could be the one off, 340 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: but Rice has been so steady down to stretch here 341 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: and into the playoffs. 342 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 3: And on the Buffalo side. 343 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 1: Look, I mean, Josh Allen's I can control the scoring. 344 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 1: You know, you just take Josh Allen. It doesn't matter 345 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: who it is. If it's Concaid, if it's Cook, if 346 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 1: it's anybody, it doesn't matter. It's gonna be Josh Allen 347 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 1: because he's running the football, he's running touchdowns, he's throwing touchdowns. 348 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 2: It's all about Allen. 349 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: So I imagine a little different situation this week too, 350 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 1: you know a little bit more pass rush on Josh 351 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: Allen than there was last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. 352 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: But what are your thoughts on Kansas City Buffalo and 353 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 1: the pieces that you want to pay for. 354 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 3: I think this game hits the under I'm gonna start 355 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 3: with that. 356 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 2: I think it fade then potentially it is. 357 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 3: And Josh Allen is on my core playlist that'll be 358 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 3: live Fantasy fors dot com. But he is not at 359 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 3: the top of that list because we have so many 360 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 3: other good quarterbacks, high total games, two really good defenses. 361 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 3: Playing Josh Allen on this slate, and I'm not saying 362 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 3: not to play him, but playing him on this slate 363 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 3: is saying it's faith that Josh Allen is going to 364 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 3: do Josh Allen things, which versus Kansas City, he has 365 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 3: rolled up a ton of rushing yards in his matchups 366 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 3: and especially in the playoffs. Dude, Like we're talking about 367 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 3: a guy that's hit over seventy eight rushing yards in 368 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 3: the two playoff matchups that he has verus Kansas City. 369 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 3: So that alone, like he has the ability to break 370 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 3: the slate. If you're playing Josh Allen. The two stacking 371 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 3: partners I like the most. I'm full fading Stefan Diggs 372 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 3: on the slate, it's James Cook and it's Dalton Kincaid. 373 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,439 Speaker 3: Dn Kincaid has been crushing it as of late, and 374 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:32,879 Speaker 3: especially if you look at since week seventeen, Kansas City 375 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 3: has the highest rate of too High in the NFL 376 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 3: eighty four percent of their snaps since week twelve against 377 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 3: too High, Kim Kaid is an eighteen percent target share 378 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,360 Speaker 3: two point three yards per route run. He has been 379 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 3: smashing the last few weeks. So if you're playing Allen, 380 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 3: that's the way to go. But if you're fading this 381 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 3: game and you're not playing Allen, then it's gonna be 382 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 3: attack the running backs. I think that in a lot 383 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 3: of like larger slates, I'm not going to tell you 384 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 3: to play two running back from the same game because 385 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 3: correlation's sake, the chances of that getting there is not likely. 386 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 3: But on a four gamer you toss a lot of 387 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 3: those rules out so you can get exposure to this 388 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 3: game by just playing Isaiah Pacheco and James Cook and 389 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 3: saying all the points go to the running backs. And 390 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 3: I think it's a way to be different in your builds. 391 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,640 Speaker 3: This week you talked about Rashid Rice. He's firmly in play. 392 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 3: If you're playing Allen and you're not playing Cook or Kincaid, 393 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 3: then it's Khalil Shakir. He has been and I said, 394 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 3: I'm full fading step on Diggs because he is going 395 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 3: to be shadowed by Bulgeria's sneed. Weligeria Sneed shut him 396 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 3: down last time, followed him on sixty five percent of 397 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 3: his routes, only allowed one reception on six targets for 398 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 3: nine receiving yards. So I'm not gonna mince words. Do 399 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 3: not play Stefan Diggs this week, but Khalil Shakiir is 400 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 3: firmly in play. Since week fourteen, Kansas City has allowed 401 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,159 Speaker 3: the seventeenth most receiving yards two opposing slot wide receivers 402 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 3: as well as he's done some good things versus too high, 403 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 3: which I talked about with Kansas City one point five 404 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 3: yards per route run. So if you're playing Allen, you 405 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,880 Speaker 3: want to get different, especially in large fields. I think 406 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,200 Speaker 3: shakier is a way you can go. 407 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 1: All right, So lots of ways you can go with 408 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 1: the slate real quick, Derek, would you want to play 409 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 1: this in the wrap round the Saturday and Sunday together 410 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: or ideally do you want to separate Saturday. 411 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 2: Or Sunday is or way you want to approach it. 412 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 3: I think the best way to get leverage on this 413 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,679 Speaker 3: on this slate is to play the full four gamer 414 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:24,919 Speaker 3: and to get different in some of your spots, like 415 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 3: playing Josh all When or playing c. J. Stroud on 416 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 3: the two gamers. Those quarterbacks are gonna be more highly rostered, 417 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,879 Speaker 3: but in a lot of different aspects. Joey, if you 418 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 3: start out your builds with Odell Beckham, Josh Reynolds and 419 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 3: one of c. J. Stroud or Baker Mayfield, you're going 420 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 3: to be auto different than a lot of the field. 421 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 3: So I like the four game slate. 422 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 2: Okay, there you have it, everybody. 423 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 1: Don't forget use the optimizer of Fantasypros dot com slash 424 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 1: optimizer and download the Betting Pros app today. Make sure 425 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 1: you subscribe to Betting Pros wherever you get your pods, 426 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: and don't forget to subscribe to the YouTube channel too, 427 00:19:58,040 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 1: because it's awesome and super fun. 428 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 3: I'll do it for us, but the story of the 429 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 3: game goes on for Debro. I'm Joey P. 430 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 2: We'll see you next time. 431 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 3: Kids enjoy the divisional playoffs. 432 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 433 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 434 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 435 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 436 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 437 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.