Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
Speaker 2: source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
Speaker 2: whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 2: here's your host, Paul Charchian.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchian. Very
Speaker 1: pleased to be joined by a first timer to Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly. It's Ken Wyrock.
Speaker 3: Hey, Kent hi charge. How are we doing?
Speaker 1: Ah? Very good. Excited for you to break your maiden
Speaker 1: on the show. Now your first ever podcast. I you
Speaker 1: done plenty of other podcasts. You've been in Pro Football Focus,
Speaker 1: my friends at the Fantasy Footballers Number five, bunch of
Speaker 1: other stops, but first time here.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: You know, I've been listening to this podcast and radio
Speaker 4: show for a while now and I'm happy to be
Speaker 4: here in contributing.
Speaker 3: Jump on the team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, fantastic, you're here in the Twin Cities, located here
Speaker 1: in the Twin Cities like we are. I asked you
Speaker 1: what you want to talk about when we were dreaming
Speaker 1: up this show and how the show could go, and
Speaker 1: you gave me one really compelling all your topics are good.
Speaker 1: I want to make it like Sally, it was doing
Speaker 1: one good one. But we have not yet touched on
Speaker 1: the key offseason changes with some teams that are going
Speaker 1: to have widespread effect on their offenses.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're at that point of the season now where
Speaker 4: we're between free agency, the big changes in the coaching cycle,
Speaker 4: and the NFL Draft, which is coming up in a
Speaker 4: few weeks, and it's all one big puzzle that we
Speaker 4: got to put together. And so you know, most these
Speaker 4: puzzle pieces have fallen into place, so we got to
Speaker 4: identify what are the big sweeping changes in terms of
Speaker 4: offensive identity and what does that mean for fantasy?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Absolutely, And the teams are going to touch on are
Speaker 1: all teams kent that are largely broken, teams that have
Speaker 1: got that have undergone major change. And so sometimes I
Speaker 1: think the teams aren't going to sound that exciting upfront,
Speaker 1: But if we talked about Houston at this time last year,
Speaker 1: it wouldn't have sounded that exciting upfront. Yeah, some of
Speaker 1: these teams. Five teams are going to get a lot better. Panthers, Falcons, Patriots, Chargers,
Speaker 1: Titans in most cases get better. We'll we'll talk it
Speaker 1: through and see what we think. And so yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: excited to drill down on these teams with you. Let's
Speaker 1: start and by the way, before we even get into that,
Speaker 1: let's let's just hit on the stuff on Diggs things.
Speaker 1: It's such big news that's came down midweek a few
Speaker 1: days ago. Your thoughts on first the Buffalo offense that
Speaker 1: it's currently right now really in a weak spot at
Speaker 1: wide receiver. You know, Khalil Shakir is probably their best
Speaker 1: wide receiver on roster right now. How do you see
Speaker 1: the Spills offense as it sits today? Obviously plenty will
Speaker 1: change and over the course of the draft.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I like Khalil Shakier quite a bit.
Speaker 4: I think he's very solid in that supporting role. I
Speaker 4: don't know if he can be a one in this offense.
Speaker 4: And if I'm Josh Allen right now, I'm not happy,
Speaker 4: you know, Digs despite maybe there's some ongoing cryptic tweeting
Speaker 4: on the side these days, but you know, you still
Speaker 4: need someone to catch the football, and Josh Allen, well,
Speaker 4: he is very, very talented, probably the second best quarterback
Speaker 4: in the NFL right now, you still need a solid
Speaker 4: receiving Cord to back that up. And if you start to,
Speaker 4: you know, dismantle the entire receiving operation, everything else could
Speaker 4: fall with it.
Speaker 1: And you know, Shaki ran about sixty percent of his
Speaker 1: snaps from the slot. Their big free agent edition was
Speaker 1: Curtis Samuel, Right, So, I mean, we really don't have
Speaker 1: any outside receivers that we feel comfortable with on the
Speaker 1: Bills right now. And you know, I'm sure they'll change
Speaker 1: in the draft. I mean they have a mandate now
Speaker 1: to go get receivers, and probably more than one. So
Speaker 1: we'll see how this thing shakes out. Maybe there's a
Speaker 1: trade in the future, draft day trade or after the
Speaker 1: trade if the draft doesn't fall the way the Bills want.
Speaker 1: But right now, man, you know, not the Diggs was
Speaker 1: the contributor that he used to be. But Kent, I
Speaker 1: just I don't love the way this Bills. This Bill's
Speaker 1: offense looks without reliable help at receiver Titans, it looks solid,
Speaker 1: but you know you need more than that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And you know, last year they went through some
Speaker 4: offensive coordinator changes as well and went from Door Sat
Speaker 4: to Joe Brady, and that came with its own set
Speaker 4: of challenges as well. And so the Bills, they kind
Speaker 4: of need to figure something out if they're going to
Speaker 4: find a new offensive identity. And you know, their run game, well,
Speaker 4: it's good. I wouldn't say it's their core structure, right,
Speaker 4: and so you know, we're looking in a new direction.
Speaker 3: And I think you're right.
Speaker 4: At the back of the first round, the Bills are
Speaker 4: almost a certainty to draft a wide receiver provided they
Speaker 4: stay in that slot.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And then the the other side of that, of course,
Speaker 1: is the receiver that some people would say is the
Speaker 1: second best receiver quarterback in football, c J. Stroud ends
Speaker 1: up gaining stuff on Diggs. I think Diggs goes into
Speaker 1: a spot where he's basically the third best receiver by
Speaker 1: a little you know. I think I think Niko Collins
Speaker 1: and what we saw at Tank Dell will looked fantastic.
Speaker 1: It'll be fascinating to see what Diggs is able to
Speaker 1: do and what kind of player he is. And now
Speaker 1: it is just a one year prove it deal, a
Speaker 1: twenty four million dollar proven deal, but a one year
Speaker 1: deal with Houston as a as a compliment among three
Speaker 1: good receivers.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I actually just recently saw a tweet from
Speaker 4: Field Yates talking about the contract structure of Stefan Diggs,
Speaker 4: and I think they got that cap number for this
Speaker 4: year down to like just a handful, like two to
Speaker 4: three million or something like that, So they may not
Speaker 4: be done. Obviously there's a handful of voidiers tacked on,
Speaker 4: as every contract these days seems to have, but they
Speaker 4: may be adding more pieces. The Houston Texans, whether offense
Speaker 4: or defense. You know, they they've got quite a team,
Speaker 4: and I think they're set up very nicely to continue
Speaker 4: back to the playoffs for the second time.
Speaker 1: All right, From just a fantasy outlook only, what's the
Speaker 1: order you would draft the Houston wide receivers.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's gonna be Nico Collins first for me. Still,
Speaker 4: he's just been so reliable and steadfast for that offense,
Speaker 4: plays an extremely you know, robust route tree. Is able
Speaker 4: to make all sorts of different throws or excuse catch
Speaker 4: all different sorts of throws and run all different sorts
Speaker 4: of routes. I did see that Tank Dell had a
Speaker 4: little bit of a divergence in his yards per route
Speaker 4: run when he's in eleven personnel versus having just two
Speaker 4: wide receivers on the field. So you know, I probably
Speaker 4: still take man between Tank Dell and Stephan Diggs. I
Speaker 4: think I'm gonna go dig second and Dell very very
Speaker 4: closely behind.
Speaker 1: I'm exactly the same spot, exactly the same spot you are.
Speaker 1: And I like Tank Dell a lot. I just you know,
Speaker 1: we didn't get the full season from him, you know,
Speaker 1: And I think he's gonna have a great career and
Speaker 1: maybe even turns out to be the best of the
Speaker 1: three in the long run. But he also runs a
Speaker 1: lot of slot routes. Slot routes are It's hard to
Speaker 1: get paid fantasy style from slot receivers. It's not impossible.
Speaker 1: But Cooper cup is the outlier, right absolutely, All right,
Speaker 1: let's dive into the offseason changes that are going to
Speaker 1: affect entire offenses. I've set you up for the Panthers.
Speaker 1: I mean, let's say, it almost feels like get it
Speaker 1: out of the way, right, But let's let's go through
Speaker 1: the most dysfunctional team in probably all of sports, the Panthers.
Speaker 1: They are paying four different head coaches right now, which
Speaker 1: is pretty amazing. They've brought in some pedigree now with
Speaker 1: their coaching staff in the hope that they can effectively
Speaker 1: do for Baker do with BA do for Bryce Young
Speaker 1: what they did for Baker Mayfield and Tampa. Let's talk
Speaker 1: it through.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's the goal. I mean, Baker had
Speaker 4: quite a year last year. I think he had a
Speaker 4: career high in touchdowns of twenty eight passing touchdowns last year.
Speaker 4: So you might recall that the Panthers had Frank Reich
Speaker 4: and Thomas Brown last year as their head coach offensive
Speaker 4: coordinator duo, and they actually flip flopped a few times
Speaker 4: between play calling duties, and you know, truth be told,
Speaker 4: neither of them were all that spectacular. So it's tough
Speaker 4: to say it could get much worse than that, but
Speaker 4: you know, you just have high hopes and positivity. So
Speaker 4: the incoming staff is head coach Dave Canalis and O. C.
Speaker 3: Brad Idzick.
Speaker 4: Excuse me, Idzick, that's a tough one for me to say,
Speaker 4: but they're both coming over from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
Speaker 4: and I think what they're looking to apply to this
Speaker 4: Panthers team is a more balanced approach in regards to
Speaker 4: the personnel usage, how they're gonna deploy their offensive weapons,
Speaker 4: and so, you know, looking at some of the key
Speaker 4: changes in the offense, they well, you know key using
Speaker 4: very loosely here, but they lost Leviska Chhanal dj Shark.
Speaker 4: I think they're fine. Channel was ultimately a disappointment based
Speaker 4: on some people fantasy projections, but what they did gain
Speaker 4: was two I would say, sizeable offensive guard signings, and
Speaker 4: they were going through pretty much like a patchwork turnstile
Speaker 4: situation in the regards. They had seven or eight guys playing
Speaker 4: each side over the course of the year, so they've
Speaker 4: made their offensive line more robust. They traded for Deontay Johnson,
Speaker 4: which I think is a good play overall.
Speaker 1: See I disagree a little bit in that I feel
Speaker 1: like he's Adam Thielen in a lot of ways, younger
Speaker 1: version of Adam Thelen where you're gonna get somebody can
Speaker 1: play all three positions, but somebody who doesn't take the
Speaker 1: top off the defense anymore catches what's thrown to him.
Speaker 1: He'll route run, the routes will be in the same spot.
Speaker 1: I just felt like they added a slightly younger Adam
Speaker 1: Thielen to their offense that already had Adam feeling.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's reasonable. It's worth noting that last year was
Speaker 4: his highest average depth of target to date and He's
Speaker 4: still only twenty seven years old, so we could still
Speaker 4: see his development happening in real time. And you know,
Speaker 4: he's been a very steady receiver, catching lots of balls. Obviously,
Speaker 4: the touchdowns haven't always been there, and that's been a
Speaker 4: point of conte But that may still be the case
Speaker 4: here with the Panthers unless we see a big turnaround.
Speaker 4: But also worth noting that they have two second round picks.
Speaker 4: You know, they don't have their first because of the
Speaker 4: Bryce Young deal, but those are at thirty third and
Speaker 4: thirty ninth overall, and that's pretty early. It's pretty early,
Speaker 4: and that's prime wide receiver, like that second third tier
Speaker 4: of wide receiver.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 4: And I know that Thor said he likes a lot
Speaker 4: of the depth in this class, so you know, they
Speaker 4: could definitely be adding another wide receiver very early in
Speaker 4: the draft of a couple weeks.
Speaker 1: Wouldn't be surprised, I mean, given what they paid to
Speaker 1: get Bryce Young, given how humiliating it will be if
Speaker 1: he doesn't work out. I do feel like the Panthers
Speaker 1: are trying to surround him with as much talent as
Speaker 1: possible so that if Bryce Young fails now, it will
Speaker 1: have been through two coaching staffs. It'll be with better receivers,
Speaker 1: it'll be with a better offensive line, and now it's
Speaker 1: really on Bryce Young and less on the Panthers.
Speaker 4: Yeah, one hundred percent. And you know, last year, I'd
Speaker 4: say most people still liked Bryce Young as a prospect
Speaker 4: over c J.
Speaker 3: Stroud.
Speaker 4: Yeah, most dead in the first year that flipped pretty aggressively,
Speaker 4: but there's still a reason to be, you know, have
Speaker 4: some hope that the prospect can come to fruition here.
Speaker 4: And it's kind of funny, you know, the head coach
Speaker 4: and the offense courn had come from the Buccaneers. They
Speaker 4: had Baker Mayfield last year. There's some really funny parallels
Speaker 4: between twenty twenty two Baker and twenty twenty three Bryce Young.
Speaker 1: All right, let's hear it.
Speaker 4: So in twenty twenty two, Baker played eleven games, and
Speaker 4: so we have some rate metrics here that we can
Speaker 4: look at. Sixty percent completion, ten passing, touchdown to eight interceptions,
Speaker 4: seven point eight depth of target and in his PRAE
Speaker 4: was fifty two point two from PFF. Yeah, it looked
Speaker 4: like he was done. And you know, ironically, he started
Speaker 4: the year as a Panther as well, So that's kind
Speaker 4: of an extra little layer there. Last year, Bryce Young
Speaker 4: played played sixteen out of seventeen games, and he also
Speaker 4: had sixty percent completion, eleven passing touchdowns, ten interceptions, seven
Speaker 4: point eight average at target, and his PFF passing grade
Speaker 4: was fifty two point six. So we're looking at a
Speaker 4: mirror image pretty much on some of these rate metrics.
Speaker 4: And uh, you know, Baker, like I said, last year,
Speaker 4: turned it around, had a very solid season, led the
Speaker 4: Bucks to the playoffs. They were a very very strong offense. Look,
Speaker 4: this Panthers team doesn't have Mike Evans, I get it,
Speaker 4: but they're trying to make something that they can put
Speaker 4: together piece by piece, and so Deontay Johnson is one
Speaker 4: of those pieces. And I think that Bryce Young has
Speaker 4: an opportunity, maybe not a certainty, to advance in terms
Speaker 4: of the passing game.
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot too that in a dynasty
Speaker 1: super flex, I'm buying Bryce Young what you'd have to
Speaker 1: give to get him in super flex, you might be
Speaker 1: able to give a early second rounder for Bryce Young.
Speaker 1: And you know that's a point at which I'm really
Speaker 1: interested in gambling on him being a bounce back candidate.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, quarterbacks are very high variants. Actually, especially early in
Speaker 4: their careers. We tend to believe we know the whole story,
Speaker 4: when when the book hasn't even gone past the first chapter.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no doubt. Let's go to the Falcons. So Falcons
Speaker 1: the off season news for the Falcons players and everything
Speaker 1: around the organization.
Speaker 3: It's all good.
Speaker 1: There's no there's nothing bad that's happened here at all.
Speaker 1: I love their off season. Fantasy players have to be
Speaker 1: delighted with the upgrade from Arthur Smith to well, frankly,
Speaker 1: anybody you know insert carbon based life for him.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: Will take Rahem Morris as the offensive coordinator, but more
Speaker 1: importantly Raem Morris as your head coach, more importantly offense coordinator,
Speaker 1: Zach Robinson, and obviously the massive upgraded quarterback from the
Speaker 1: highly inconsistent Taylor Heineke and Desmond Ritter to Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: Cousins has obviously proven to provide elite level production to
Speaker 1: his wide receivers, Justin Jefferson, his tight ends TJ. Hockinson,
Speaker 1: and it's vaulted the value of Kyle Pitts and Drake
Speaker 1: London to really almost new heights or at least back
Speaker 1: to the heights of where they were as rookies, when
Speaker 1: they were both lottery picks as first rounders.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, And you know, they've got some interesting changes on
Speaker 4: their coaching staff to bringing an offensive coordinator Zach Robinson,
Speaker 4: another high utilizer of eleven personnel, three wide receivers on
Speaker 4: the field, and Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and they even
Speaker 4: you know, in the Desmond Ridder trade, got Rondel Moore.
Speaker 4: That's an intriguing start to that process. I wouldn't be
Speaker 4: surprised if they add one more wide receiver to fill
Speaker 4: out their depth a little bit more. But it's gonna
Speaker 4: be a fun team to watch.
Speaker 1: What do we know about Zach Robinson Not much so.
Speaker 1: I mean, here's what we got to work with. He
Speaker 1: was a quarterback for Oklahoma State, throwing to Dez Bryant.
Speaker 1: If you go back far enough here, he was a
Speaker 1: seventh round draft pick who managed to hang on on
Speaker 1: a variety of different practice squads for a few years.
Speaker 1: Then he went to work for Pro Football Focus and
Speaker 1: by the way, he's working there with Houston's offensive coordinator
Speaker 1: Bobby Slow. At the same time, PFF turning into a
Speaker 1: launching pad for careers. He's from, most recently the Sean
Speaker 1: McVay Tree. He worked as their assistant quarterback coach, then
Speaker 1: their assistant wide receiver coach, and then he went back
Speaker 1: to assistant quarterback coach, and then for the last two
Speaker 1: years he was the quarterback coach and the passing game
Speaker 1: coordinator for Sean McVay. And that's all you have to
Speaker 1: do to get a head coaching job in the NFL now.
Speaker 1: So he's only thirty seven years old. Zach Robinson, He's
Speaker 1: never called plays, which is a concern. I like though
Speaker 1: that he's used to calling a Matthew Stafford led off,
Speaker 1: which translates pretty closely to Kirk Cousin's skill set.
Speaker 3: I would say, so, yeah, yeah, and so.
Speaker 1: I don't think he needs to relearn that. You mentioned
Speaker 1: that he likes eleven personnel. Get this, Rams ran eleven
Speaker 1: personnel on ninety percent of their plays, ninety and that
Speaker 1: means we're going to see more emphasis I believe on
Speaker 1: Jon Robinson and Kyle Pitts, who are going to be
Speaker 1: in less of time shares. Now we're running eleven with
Speaker 1: one running back and one tight end. Those are the
Speaker 1: running backs and that's the running back of the wh
Speaker 1: and the tight end that's going to be on the field.
Speaker 3: That's right.
Speaker 1: I certainly hope you know, other McVeigh disciples have kent
Speaker 1: gone on develop to develop very pass heavy schemes, and honestly,
Speaker 1: I'm hoping that's going to be the case here too.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati's Zach Taylor Minnesota's Kevin O'Connell have both finished in
Speaker 1: the top five in pass play percentage in back to
Speaker 1: back years. So if Zach Robinson is going to be
Speaker 1: as as pass heavy would be, that would be outstanding.
Speaker 1: I think for most fantasy use. Kirk Cousins opens up
Speaker 1: the entire field to the Falcons in a way we
Speaker 1: haven't seen some since Matt Ryan was good. That's a
Speaker 1: while ago. Now, Kirk's passer rating on throws over ten
Speaker 1: yards is one hundred and twenty. Last year in half season,
Speaker 1: Kirk's passer rating on throws over twenty yards only drops
Speaker 1: three points one hundred and seventeen. On passes of twenty
Speaker 1: or more yards, This is nothing we've seen in the
Speaker 1: Falcons offense. You know, you know you as an example,
Speaker 1: Drake London last year. I really his whole career has
Speaker 1: not been a downfield threat over the past two years.
Speaker 1: Two years, Drake London has caught fourteen passes of over
Speaker 1: twenty yards.
Speaker 3: Wow, that's it. Yeah, that's about to change.
Speaker 1: That's gonna change. Darnell Mooney could reach newfound productivity from
Speaker 1: the slot where Kirk Cousins has been highly proficient with
Speaker 1: JJ and Thielen in the past, and of course McVeigh
Speaker 1: Jeohn McVay utilized the slat copiously with Cooper Cup and
Speaker 1: Zach Robinson may carry over some of those schemes for
Speaker 1: Darnell Mooney, who they went out of their way to
Speaker 1: acquire in the offseason. I think b John Robinson's a
Speaker 1: total wildcard Kent. So you know, the McVeigh tree shows.
Speaker 1: The good news is the McVeigh tree shows a dedication
Speaker 1: to a single back, which I love. That's like Todd Gurley,
Speaker 1: Kyron Williams last year, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, even Alexander
Speaker 1: Madison last year with Kevin O'Connell, despite being wildly ineffective,
Speaker 1: maintained the stranglehold on getting virtually all the work from
Speaker 1: Minnesota for most of the year. So that part I
Speaker 1: love about the upside of Bjon Robinson. But the McVeigh
Speaker 1: tree doesn't pass that much to their runners. All the
Speaker 1: guys that I just mentioned, Gurley, Williams, Mixon, Cook Madison
Speaker 1: typically clocking in with like forty catch seasons. You know,
Speaker 1: four hundred receiving yards is pretty normal. Todd Gurley had,
Speaker 1: you know, in his crazy twenty seventeen year, he caught
Speaker 1: a bunch of passes and he had like eight hundred yards.
Speaker 1: But you know, overwhelmingly we haven't seen a lot of
Speaker 1: aerial work for McVeigh tree runners b Jon Robinson though
Speaker 1: maybe just so skilled as a receiver that Zach Robinson
Speaker 1: ends up using him more that way.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, despite Arthur Smith's propensity to deploy
Speaker 4: Tyler l Gear in copious amounts, you know, he kind
Speaker 4: of fell off a little bit last year relative to
Speaker 4: the year prior. And bringing in Rondell Moore. I think
Speaker 4: they'll maybe have some backfield packages for him, but pretty
Speaker 4: few and far between. Jon Robinson represents an opportunity to
Speaker 4: score a bunch of touchdowns this year, and I'm very
Speaker 4: excited for him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be interested to see you. No, all the
Speaker 1: McVeigh tree, those they don't generally take their lead backs
Speaker 1: off the field inside the five yard line. And that's
Speaker 1: where Bejon Robinson was really not very effective last year
Speaker 1: for providing fantasy points. He just, you know, those easy
Speaker 1: touchdowns weren't there for him, and he had to score
Speaker 1: from distance more often than not. And for Bejon, that's
Speaker 1: you know, for any back, that's a lot harder to do. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Luckily he's good at that, Like he has a sizeable
Speaker 1: track record with that, which is great. I want to
Speaker 1: work in a break when we come back, Let's go
Speaker 1: to the Patriots and let's talk about the changes that
Speaker 1: they've got there. No Bill at Belichick, Jared mayos In,
Speaker 1: Alex Van Peltier, offensive coordinator. Jacoby Brissett's the quarterback of
Speaker 1: the moment. Let's talk through Patriots changes when we return.
Speaker 1: Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchion Ken, Whyrock, How
Speaker 1: do you feel You're halfway through your first show?
Speaker 4: Oh man, it's so much fun. I'm just so glad
Speaker 4: to be here and I'm having a blast.
Speaker 1: All right, I love it. Well, let's dig. Let's see
Speaker 1: if we can have fun with the Patriots. It's I'm
Speaker 1: I'm fascinated to see what life is like without Bill Belichick.
Speaker 1: It's been like our entire adult lives right since Belichick's
Speaker 1: been there, and we finally get some new blood in
Speaker 1: and they've needed it in the worst way. I think
Speaker 1: the worst overall roster in the NFL may very well
Speaker 1: be the Patriots. Panthers are in this conversation too, But
Speaker 1: Patriots over roster just disaster grade top to bottom. What
Speaker 1: can we salvage out of this? What do you think
Speaker 1: Alex van Pelt will do offensive coordinator with Jared Mayo.
Speaker 1: Jared Mayo presumably Van Pelt will have almost all the
Speaker 1: offensive power here. What do you expect to change?
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, first things first, I think I might rather
Speaker 4: take the Panthers offense over the Patriots. But yeah, we're
Speaker 4: going to see some differences and some changes obviously, and
Speaker 4: exiting the Belichick era is a very distinct event for
Speaker 4: all of us to witness. But yeah, Draw Mayo is
Speaker 4: a linebackers coach, previously defensive minded. The offensive coordinator, like
Speaker 4: you said, Alex van Pelt coming from the Cleveland Browns.
Speaker 4: He spent the last four seasons there and he had
Speaker 4: one another stint as a Bills offensive coordinator back in
Speaker 4: two thousand and nine. So it'll be interesting to see
Speaker 4: how he affects this offense, and we'll work our way
Speaker 4: through that. But they, you know, as far as Key
Speaker 4: losses again Key very loosely, DeVante Parker, Mike GETSICKI.
Speaker 1: It's an addition by some track exactly.
Speaker 4: So you know, the remaining receiving course Kendrick Bourne to
Speaker 4: Mario Douglas, Juju Smith, Schuster and Hunter Henry. So that's
Speaker 4: I think overall a very flat, fine group, but nothing,
Speaker 4: no one is elevating, and no one is really dragging
Speaker 4: it down.
Speaker 1: I would never use the word fine on that group
Speaker 1: of receivers, but if you want to be charitable, that's fine.
Speaker 1: I'll let you do that.
Speaker 4: I'll do my best to give him a little credit charge.
Speaker 4: But yeah, and you know, as far as some people
Speaker 4: that they've added to the roster, they will have I
Speaker 4: would say likely a new quarterback at the first, at
Speaker 4: the third overall pick.
Speaker 1: Which keeps happening to Jacoby Brissette everywhere he goes, right exactly.
Speaker 1: All he does is play pretty good functional quarterback, and
Speaker 1: everybody's like, oh, we got to start somebody else over you.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and even if they do draft a rookie, I
Speaker 4: would say it's probably pretty likely that Jacoby Brissett starts
Speaker 4: the season still and they work the rookie and we'll
Speaker 4: see that remains depending on who they take. But they
Speaker 4: also added Antonio Gibson to the backfield another wide receiver
Speaker 4: kJ Osborne, which again kind of just fits in the group. Yep,
Speaker 4: in a backup tight end in Austin Hooper. So I
Speaker 4: think the question now is what kind of fantasy value
Speaker 4: can you glean from this group? And if I had
Speaker 4: to make a bet, it would be on Romandri Stevenson.
Speaker 1: This is an.
Speaker 4: Offensive coordinator Van Pelt who likes to run the ball.
Speaker 4: He obviously had Nick Chubb at his disposal and even
Speaker 4: when he was back at as the Bills offensive coordinator,
Speaker 4: he had two running backs by the name of Fred
Speaker 4: Jackson and Marshaw Lynch.
Speaker 3: I've heard of them, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: Fred Jackson was one of the great stories out of
Speaker 1: what his college like Lane or something? And no, no,
Speaker 1: no was he So did he go to? Where did
Speaker 1: Fred Jackson play college? It was like South Dakota fortunately, Yeah,
Speaker 1: and I can't remember that far back.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So you know, he likes to run the ball.
Speaker 4: And I have a quote from him here, he said,
Speaker 4: I think that running the football in this league wins games,
Speaker 4: wins championships. He is dedicated to it. He's gonna try
Speaker 4: and pound the rock. Now we've got to figure out
Speaker 4: if ramondre Stevenson is the guy who can handle that workload.
Speaker 4: So you know, in Cleveland he had Nick Brown as
Speaker 4: his lead back and obviously was rushing the ball insane
Speaker 4: amounts of time with him. However, even when Nick Chubb
Speaker 4: went down last year, he split a very heavy ninth
Speaker 4: in rush freight amount of carries between Kareem Hunt and
Speaker 4: Jerome Ford, two guys that are not Nick jobb very
Speaker 4: ho hum exactly. So he was fine running the ball
Speaker 4: even with them. And that was three hundred and thirty
Speaker 4: nine rushing attempts between them for a whopping three point
Speaker 4: six yards per carry.
Speaker 3: Ikes.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So to this day, to date, I should say
Speaker 4: Romondre Stevenson has yet to surpass thirteen rushing attempts per game,
Speaker 4: a mark that is one entire rushing attempt below what
Speaker 4: Nick Chubb has been since his rookie season. So you
Speaker 4: got to see him step up because I don't see
Speaker 4: Antonio Gibson as a runner anymore. He had his career
Speaker 4: low sixty five rushing attempts last year. Yeah, and he's
Speaker 4: coming off a career high three hundred and eighteen routes run,
Speaker 4: which is just twenty one fewer than Re Remandre's twenty twenty.
Speaker 3: Two breakout season.
Speaker 4: So we probably see Antonio Gibson harvesting some of that
Speaker 4: pass catching work from Ramondre Stevenson. Well, Stevenson's pounding the
Speaker 4: rock on first and second down, So that's a bit
Speaker 4: unfortunate in the PPR game, and we're probably not going
Speaker 4: to see a ton of rushing touchdowns out of this team.
Speaker 4: So it's a question mark. But if Ramondre Stevenson can
Speaker 4: stay healthy and contribute to this team and maybe their
Speaker 4: first you know, maybe Drake may leads them to the
Speaker 4: Promised Land. Yeah, you have an opportunity to seize a
Speaker 4: lot of value.
Speaker 1: I I love ramondra Stevenson, longtime listeners know. I just
Speaker 1: I think he's a I think he's a way way
Speaker 1: underappreciated power back who has languished behind some bad offensive
Speaker 1: lines playing with a quarterback who gives defenses nothing to fear.
Speaker 1: For most of the past two years, it's been shut
Speaker 1: down for Mondra Stevenson and you shut down this offense.
Speaker 1: So I want to believe that this new scheme, hopefully
Speaker 1: better players, hopefully an improved offensive line, either the draft
Speaker 1: free agency will unlock Stevenson with a heavy workload here,
Speaker 1: and I want to get him back, Like, let's get
Speaker 1: double digit touchdowns for Mondra Stevenson.
Speaker 3: That would be nice.
Speaker 1: You know, he's he's he is such a good power
Speaker 1: back that I want to believe he can get there,
Speaker 1: and I think he can. Let's go over to the Chargers.
Speaker 1: And by the way, I don't think it even Patriots.
Speaker 1: Patriots likely go quarterback and picked three. If they trade down,
Speaker 1: they could still go quarterback. Who knows, but I don't
Speaker 1: think it's gonna matter that much. If it's Brissett or
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback learning on the job.
Speaker 3: I'm with you.
Speaker 1: This is a run heavy offense. Chargers massive, massive flux
Speaker 1: for the entire team right, particularly the offense. So gone
Speaker 1: are Brandon Staley, Kellen Moore from the coaching staff. By
Speaker 1: the way, if Gone changes general manager as well, Joe
Speaker 1: Horitz is in as the new general manager, and of
Speaker 1: course Jim Harbaugh Greg Roman are there. You can't ask
Speaker 1: for a more obvious blueprint of what's coming than having
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman as your coaches. It's it's
Speaker 1: the biggest tell ever. Also, gone nearly every offensive asset
Speaker 1: who made a meaningful contribution over the past five years
Speaker 1: outside of Justin Herbert So Austin Eckler's now in Washington,
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen's and Chicago Micha Williams with the Jets, and
Speaker 1: to this point as a group, they have been replaced
Speaker 1: by basically nobody, I mean Gus Edwards, but basically nobody
Speaker 1: to this point. So what do we expect from Harbaugh
Speaker 1: and Roman running? Obviously, here's some data harbaught Michigan. Last
Speaker 1: year Michigan ran the ball thirty eight times per game
Speaker 1: and pass twenty four. Oh man, it's a thirty nine
Speaker 1: percent pass rate. Thirty nine percent. That is leather helm
Speaker 1: era stuff right there. The prior year, Michigan ran the
Speaker 1: ball forty three times per game for a thirty seven
Speaker 1: percent pass rate. I mean, even if you roll back,
Speaker 1: I went back and I looked, I look back at
Speaker 1: NFL Day to twenty years so on, all the way
Speaker 1: back to two thousand and four, no team was even
Speaker 1: close to a sixty one percent run rate. No team.
Speaker 1: I think the next closest team was like seven percent
Speaker 1: off of that. So, I mean, you know, this is
Speaker 1: this is the potential even with Justin Herbert is the
Speaker 1: only obvious talent in like left in this offense, there's
Speaker 1: the potential here for whoever ends up being the lead runner.
Speaker 1: And it's TBD. It's through the draft.
Speaker 3: Almost certainly, almost certainly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, somebody's gonna somebody's gonna have a lot of usage coming.
Speaker 1: Let's talk Greg Roman. You already probably know that when
Speaker 1: he was offensive cordieror Baltimore for four years, the Ravens
Speaker 1: ran all the time. Ravens rank and run play percentage
Speaker 1: during Greg Roman's tenure of those four years were first, first, eleventh,
Speaker 1: and third. The obviously Lamar Jackson skews those rankings, but
Speaker 1: even without Jackson, just the Ravens runners alone under Greg Roman,
Speaker 1: we're averaging twenty one carries per game under him. That's
Speaker 1: a healthy number. Harbought. Harbor could have picked a lot
Speaker 1: of people to be his offensive coordinator, Kent, he picked
Speaker 1: Greg Roman.
Speaker 4: He's trying to recreate the national championship. Charge just wants run, run, run.
Speaker 1: Run, run, run, But who's gonna run the ball. So
Speaker 1: Gus Edwards. You know, maybe he's better another year removed
Speaker 1: from his ACL injury of two years ago, but honestly,
Speaker 1: he looked tired and spent last year. And I've been
Speaker 1: a big Gus Edwards proponent and was up into the injury.
Speaker 1: Gus turns twenty nine years old this week. He was
Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus's forty first ranked runner last year, and
Speaker 1: he ranked fifty third in PFF's elusiveness rankings and has
Speaker 1: had declining yards per carry in four straight seasons, down
Speaker 1: to four point one last year. I think Gus is
Speaker 1: about done.
Speaker 3: Yeah, his age really snuck up on us, didn't it.
Speaker 3: It really did.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with you. They're gonna add someone through
Speaker 4: the draft, regardless of Greg Roman's connection to Gus Edwards
Speaker 4: back at Baltimore. You know them might limit the rookies
Speaker 4: incoming touch numbers, but yeah, I can't see Gus being
Speaker 4: the lead guy.
Speaker 3: Just nut. So I can't either want to contribute to.
Speaker 1: If you told me the Chargers we are gonna be
Speaker 1: the first team to take a running back in this draft,
Speaker 1: I'd be like, Yeah, that makes total sense.
Speaker 4: Everyone's connecting Blake koram to everybody is connect create the championship,
Speaker 4: and maybe it's gonna go that way.
Speaker 1: You know a lot of people have put Michigan running
Speaker 1: back Blake Korum on the Chargers, and you probably don't
Speaker 1: have to. He's right now he's being mocked into the fourth,
Speaker 1: fifth round, So you know, they wouldn't have to give
Speaker 1: up a lot to go get Blake Korm if they do,
Speaker 1: they could spend a third and just go get him.
Speaker 1: And I like Korum's productivity. I like the footwork. I
Speaker 1: like the balance and the build. He's got some sneaky acceleration,
Speaker 1: but does not have long speed, doesn't have natural elusive
Speaker 1: this Thor is pretty down on him, which I trust
Speaker 1: Thor a lot, and and so I just I think
Speaker 1: he's a middling talent. But you know what, it might
Speaker 1: not matter. You know, if this team's going to give
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five rushing attempts to its running backs a game,
Speaker 1: you don't have to be that good to be Fantasy
Speaker 1: effective volume is key. That's the old the old say. Yep,
Speaker 1: I'd love to see them go get Trey Benson. He's
Speaker 1: my favorite rookie run in the draft. So that's if
Speaker 1: Trey Bentson goes to the Chargers, he will be inside
Speaker 1: my top ten run at the running back position in
Speaker 1: my rankings. Now at right now, Chargers are sitting at
Speaker 1: pick five of the draft. That's going to yield them
Speaker 1: the leak. Neighbors or Marvin Harrison Junior Ken you know,
Speaker 1: both are amazing prospects who get to catch passes from
Speaker 1: an excellent quarterback. The only question is how many passes
Speaker 1: are you going to get from Greg Roman as a
Speaker 1: team under Greg Roman. Here are the Ravens rankings for
Speaker 1: wide receiver fantasy points scored four years of Greg Roman offenses.
Speaker 1: Here's where the wide receivers are ranked as a group,
Speaker 1: thirty first, twenty third, thirtieth and thirty first. There's your
Speaker 1: four years of Greg Roman coaching with the Ravens wide
Speaker 1: receiver group. So as good as Malik Neighbors and Marvin
Speaker 1: Harrison might be, and the fact they've got Justin Herbert,
Speaker 1: I mean, this should be a lot of passing and
Speaker 1: it should be productive early, there's some reason for worry
Speaker 1: there now. Granted, Neighbors or Harrison will be better than
Speaker 1: any receiver Roman ever worked with in Baltimore.
Speaker 4: So there's that yeah, I would say there's nowhere to
Speaker 4: go from up from those fantasy point numbers. But you know,
Speaker 4: like you said, Greg Roman has never been outside the
Speaker 4: top ten in Russian attempts and his entire NFL career
Speaker 4: as a coach and as well, we're on fifteen years
Speaker 4: or so now, I don't know exactly, but so we
Speaker 4: know he's committed and no matter what coaching staff he's
Speaker 4: been a part of, he's infected them with his nature.
Speaker 1: So infected, I like, make it sound like a virus.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Tennessee new head coaches Brian Callahan.
Speaker 1: We've got we've got some data on him, which I
Speaker 1: think is we're gonna find helpful here. I don't like
Speaker 1: Will Levis. I don't think. I hope, I hope I'm wrong,
Speaker 1: and I hope year two is better, and it probably
Speaker 1: will be better. But I didn't like what I saw
Speaker 1: last year much at all, big arm. I don't like
Speaker 1: any of the fundamentals. I don't like the technique. I
Speaker 1: don't like the ball placement. I don't like the decision making.
Speaker 1: I hope he gets a lot better in this new offense,
Speaker 1: or maybe they surprise everybody and take a quarterback at seven.
Speaker 3: Oh, that would be a surprise. I like it.
Speaker 1: I'm on board for it. I don't think Will Loves.
Speaker 3: Is the guy at this point.
Speaker 4: I'd say my my betting money would be on the
Speaker 4: fact that they will not be in play for a
Speaker 4: quarterback because we will have four off the board already.
Speaker 4: It's very positive. That's my feelings on the matter. But
Speaker 4: the draft is a chaotic event every year, so I
Speaker 4: could be surprised. But if they are sticking with Will Levis,
Speaker 4: I think there's what they've tried to do is create
Speaker 4: a structure around him such that they're gonna find out
Speaker 4: if he can succeed.
Speaker 3: And you know, he might not.
Speaker 4: Those fundamentals might come back and bite him and he
Speaker 4: won't be able to compete. But looking at who they
Speaker 4: brought in, we got, like you said, head coach Brian
Speaker 4: Callahan coming from the Bengals, was the offensive coordinator there.
Speaker 4: Their new offensive coordinator on the Titans is Nick Holts,
Speaker 4: first time NFL offensive coordinator, but was the passing game
Speaker 4: coordinator for the Jaguars. So you know, in the last
Speaker 4: couple of years, or I should say last year, the
Speaker 4: Bengals were second pass rate like you said earlier in
Speaker 4: this segment, and they were second in pass right over expectation,
Speaker 4: and then the Jaguars were fifth in pass right over expectations.
Speaker 4: So you know those early downs where you're not sure
Speaker 4: if they're going to pass a throw, they tended to
Speaker 4: throw more. And that's something that I'm sure they're going
Speaker 4: to look to do with Will Levis as well.
Speaker 3: You know, they lost Derek Henry.
Speaker 1: Part of the I guess that's really kind of the
Speaker 1: lead story here too.
Speaker 4: Right, Yeah, exactly. They replaced him with Tony Pollard, which
Speaker 4: is a massive downgrade. No one's gonna argue that. But
Speaker 4: Tony Pollard at least brings some pass catching patch pass
Speaker 4: catching chops to the table that Derrick Henry uh never
Speaker 4: really had, So I think that's interesting. The Calvin Ridley
Speaker 4: contract was pretty sizable. They were very interested in bringing
Speaker 4: him too.
Speaker 1: I was shocked they gave him so much money, honestly,
Speaker 1: you know, I just I Ridley was such a hit
Speaker 1: and miss and mostly miss fan producer for the Jaguars,
Speaker 1: you know, and the fact that Jaguars didn't make seemingly
Speaker 1: that much of an effort to keep him, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think Tennessee overpaid.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it very likely that is the case.
Speaker 4: But he has familiarity with Nickolets, the offensive coordinator, coming
Speaker 4: from the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: Sounds fair.
Speaker 4: Should get him involved in the offense pretty well. Obviously
Speaker 4: at that price point, you better hope he is and
Speaker 4: then they'll probably you know, you said quarterback. I think
Speaker 4: offensive tackle at seven in the draft.
Speaker 1: Everybody's got Joe Joel. Everybody thinks that's the case.
Speaker 4: And they're in the middle of kind of real work
Speaker 4: in that offensive line two from a few years back.
Speaker 1: So remember, like four years ago, it was the best
Speaker 1: offensive line in football and it just got picked apart
Speaker 1: by injury and free agency, and last year was one
Speaker 1: of the bottom like three offensive lines. And that's that's
Speaker 1: your built in excuse for why Will Levis didn't perform
Speaker 1: all that well. But you know what, that's what they
Speaker 1: said about Kenny Pickett and they tried to rebuild an
Speaker 1: offensive line. They give him another chance. Didn't matter. Kenny
Speaker 1: Pickett didn't pan out. Desmond Ritter had a middling rookie year.
Speaker 1: They're like, Okay, we're gonna give him another chance. Didn't
Speaker 1: work out. I think more often than not, Kent the
Speaker 1: guys who don't show enough in their first year never
Speaker 1: get it.
Speaker 4: That's then if you're using that historically, that's a very
Speaker 4: predictive way to look at things. And I don't doubt
Speaker 4: that for a second. So that's why I go quarterback.
Speaker 1: But anyway, I guess if one of the four is there,
Speaker 1: I probably would have fired Tennessee.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you mentioned the big arm Will Levis last year
Speaker 4: at the highest average depth of target with eleven point
Speaker 4: one yards. The second highest with nine point three was C. J.
Speaker 3: Stroud.
Speaker 4: So they are looking downfield and they built a pretty
Speaker 4: decent receiving core around of Dejandria Hopkins is still there,
Speaker 4: aging but still good, good in the red zone. Calvin
Speaker 4: Ridley very similar, Treylon Burks, you know what, he's in
Speaker 4: a tertiary role. Now, maybe that's where he finds his
Speaker 4: stride and becomes a more of a supporting cast type receiver.
Speaker 1: Will take any stride.
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly. And you know I mentioned Tony Pollard and
Speaker 4: then even Chigo Konquo was fine as like a fifth
Speaker 4: option in terms of passing.
Speaker 1: So if you're in a dropped balls league, well yes,
Speaker 1: that would help. Now you ever mentioned spears once, well,
Speaker 1: and I you know, I was very excited. I invested
Speaker 1: in my Dynasty leagues, in Empire leagues. I invested in
Speaker 1: some taj spears last year, figuring Derrick Henry be gone,
Speaker 1: he'd get a lot more work. The Pollard signing.
Speaker 4: Jeez, yeah, he kind of smeared that a little bit,
Speaker 4: but he was exciting at times last year. There were
Speaker 4: a few flexible games even when was still playing and starting.
Speaker 4: So I think there's reason to still keep that hope
Speaker 4: and expectation for him on your bench. You're not starting them,
Speaker 4: I would say, right out the gates. But Pollard could
Speaker 4: give this job up over the course of the year.
Speaker 4: I don't think that's written off at all.
Speaker 1: If he's the Tony Pollard from last year, well, yes, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: That was. You know, that was a shocking, shocking turn
Speaker 1: of events, I think for people. Pollard, as I recall,
Speaker 1: drafted second round in most fantasy drafts last year. Yes, yeah,
Speaker 1: he was a pretty high end of first early second round. Wow.
Speaker 1: The fall off the table as a workhorse back for
Speaker 1: Dallas just amazing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a tale as old as time.
Speaker 4: You see the backup running back putting up really good
Speaker 4: rate metrics, and efficient numbers, and then you put him
Speaker 4: in the starter spot and it all goes down.
Speaker 3: So some guys.
Speaker 1: Aren't built for that, that's right, Yeah, some guys aren't
Speaker 1: built for that. You think Callahan will be as prodigious
Speaker 1: as as heavily pass focused as he was in Cincinnati
Speaker 1: now that he's with Tennessee and does not have you know,
Speaker 1: he does not have the kind of weapons he had
Speaker 1: in Cincinnati, aerial weapons he had in Cincinnati at all.
Speaker 1: So was he just playing to his strengths because he
Speaker 1: had great talent at wide receiver and quarterback and you know,
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and t Higgins and then you go to
Speaker 1: Tennessee and he's you know, the fallof with is is
Speaker 1: fairly dramatic.
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, that's certainly something that's in the cards. And
Speaker 4: he probably won't be second in pass right again. Probably
Speaker 4: won't be second in pass right over expectation again, but
Speaker 4: I do see them committing to the passing game.
Speaker 3: And you know, they were.
Speaker 4: Third and eleven personnel usage on early downs last year
Speaker 4: as well. You know, granted, like you said, very lead
Speaker 4: group of wide receivers over in Cincinnati, but they put
Speaker 4: together a decent set of receivers here a little bit older,
Speaker 4: a little bit worse, but they're they're making an effort
Speaker 4: to try and set up a similar structure, and I
Speaker 4: think that the structure is there to find out if
Speaker 4: will Levis is ready to be the starter or not.
Speaker 1: Great job, Kent, Congratulations on your first show and Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly, everybody. We'll be back next week for more
Speaker 1: talk to you, then bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is
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