Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Proud.
Speaker 3: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.
Speaker 4: We also need to talk about what's going on in
Speaker 4: the Middle East. Is Israel has just said it hit
Speaker 4: Hesbela's main headquarters in southern Bay Route the Israeli Defense
Speaker 4: Forces on x saying that the IDF conducted what it's
Speaker 4: calling a precise strike on the central headquarters of the
Speaker 4: Hesbela terrorist organization, embedded under residential buildings in the heart
Speaker 4: of a part of Beyrout. This, of course, is coming
Speaker 4: after we heard from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahoo at
Speaker 4: the UN General Assembly in New York earlier today saying
Speaker 4: Israel has no choice but to keep fighting as.
Speaker 5: Long as kz Balachu this is the path of war.
Speaker 5: Israel has no choice, and Israel has every right to
Speaker 5: remove this threat and return our citizens to their home safely.
Speaker 5: And that's exactly what we're doing.
Speaker 4: If you're watching on YouTube, you can see that he
Speaker 4: was addressing a room that was more empty than it
Speaker 4: was full. We want to get the latest now on
Speaker 4: this conflict. In turn to an expert on armed conflict,
Speaker 4: ke Grico, the senior fellow with the Stimpson Centers reimagining
Speaker 4: US Grand Strategy is with us here on balance of power. Kelly,
Speaker 4: it's always great to have you. So, I guess my
Speaker 4: first question is we've been seeing Israel conducting these strikes
Speaker 4: for well over a week now. Seven hundred people according
Speaker 4: to Lebanese authorities, have been killed, including some fifty children,
Speaker 4: and now they hit Hesbulah's main headquarters. Is this not
Speaker 4: something they should have done first?
Speaker 6: Well, first of all, thank you for having me. It's
Speaker 6: quite an escalation, I would say, I think that's probably
Speaker 6: why it was not struck first. You know, both sides
Speaker 6: Hesbelah and Israel have been trying to take actions increasingly
Speaker 6: at gradual escalatory actions, but trying to keep it below
Speaker 6: the threshold that will result in a full out war.
Speaker 6: And as they're preceding up this sort of escalation ladder,
Speaker 6: they're getting closer and closer to that. And I think
Speaker 6: that that's what this strike is meant to signal, is
Speaker 6: that Israel is willing to escalate further.
Speaker 4: Well, so if Israel is willing, it becomes a question
Speaker 4: of how Hesbelah meets that escalation if it has the
Speaker 4: desire to do that as well. What kind of response
Speaker 4: would you expect from this Iranian peroxy when it's headquarters,
Speaker 4: we're hit and it is escalatory in your view, yes,
Speaker 4: I mean.
Speaker 6: I think the challenge here is that there are no
Speaker 6: good options for Israel right now, and there are no
Speaker 6: good options for Hesbelah. We see a lot of signs
Speaker 6: that has Blood is not want to in all out war.
Speaker 6: It doesn't really serve its groups, its group's interests, and
Speaker 6: so it's been trying to respond in some way to
Speaker 6: re established deterrence with Israel, so trying to respond to
Speaker 6: these in these these hit per top moves, but again
Speaker 6: without triggering a larger response from Israel. But if it
Speaker 6: tries to at this point, you know, back down it
Speaker 6: does It's it's that risk of losing some kind of face,
Speaker 6: right It's spent years trying to build up this deterrence
Speaker 6: against Israel, and so backing down is really hard for
Speaker 6: it because there's going to be concerns that it looks
Speaker 6: weak and that's really the last thing that it wants.
Speaker 6: But at the same time, it's losing some of the
Speaker 6: support of the local population, and so it's really boxed
Speaker 6: in in its choices. And I think they're going to
Speaker 6: be trying once again to thread this very thin needle
Speaker 6: of responding in a forceful way without hopefully without triggering
Speaker 6: an all out war. But this is a very dangerous dance.
Speaker 6: In each round, it's getting more and more dangerous.
Speaker 4: Well, and I wonder, Kelly, if this really is about
Speaker 4: what has below or at the end of the day,
Speaker 4: if it's about what Iran wants of Hesbela.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think this is a great question.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 6: One of the things that I think is sort of
Speaker 6: ironic is that I think Iran in the United States
Speaker 6: find themselves in similar positions right now in terms of
Speaker 6: the Middle East, and that Iran does not seem to
Speaker 6: want an all out war, the United States does not
Speaker 6: want an all out war. But we're also both trying
Speaker 6: to support our local partners, you know, We're trying to
Speaker 6: support Israel, They're trying to support Hesbelah, which is a
Speaker 6: really important proxy actor for them, and so trying to
Speaker 6: almost restrain our partners so that we don't end up
Speaker 6: in this all out war, but while still being seen
Speaker 6: as supporting that local partner ally. And so there is
Speaker 6: a role here though for Iran to step in and
Speaker 6: to try to restrain Hasblah and try to get them
Speaker 6: to back away from the brink. And I think that's
Speaker 6: actually going to be critical and helping to calm things down.
Speaker 4: I just want to quickly mention some breaking news as
Speaker 4: we've been monitoring the New York courthouse in which New
Speaker 4: York City Mayor Eric Adams, after yesterday being indicted on
Speaker 4: federal fraud and bribery charges, is being arraigned. He has
Speaker 4: pleaded not guilty to those federal charges. Of course, he
Speaker 4: was facing five charges in total. That is the latest
Speaker 4: ass expected. He has entered a not guilty plea and
Speaker 4: will continue to keep you updated on that story, especially
Speaker 4: if we hear from him.
Speaker 7: Outside of the courthouse.
Speaker 4: Kelly, I'd like to move on to a different conflict
Speaker 4: because also in New York today we saw a meeting
Speaker 4: take place between Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: It of course comes after Zelenski met with Biden and
Speaker 4: Harris at the White House yesterday and after. Zelensky and
Speaker 4: Trump have exchanged some public criticism of each other in
Speaker 4: recent days while Zelenski has been here in the US now.
Speaker 4: Trump said after their meeting that he had quote learned
Speaker 4: a lot, but that he has not changed his stance
Speaker 4: that negotiations could bring an end to the war. Are
Speaker 4: we really at that point, Kelly, where this only ends
Speaker 4: with a negotiated settlement of some.
Speaker 3: Oh?
Speaker 6: Yes, I think we've been at that point for a
Speaker 6: very long time, that this will ultimately end in some
Speaker 6: kind of negotiated settlement. I think it's important to remember
Speaker 6: that the vast majority of wars do end that way.
Speaker 6: They do not end in outright victory for one side
Speaker 6: or the other. The real challenge, I think right now
Speaker 6: is convincing both parties that they would be better off
Speaker 6: going to a negotiating table and settling the war rather
Speaker 6: than continuing to pursue it on the battlefield. And right now,
Speaker 6: certainly the Russians want to continue to pursue on the battlefield.
Speaker 6: They're making gains in eastern Ukraine. They obviously want to
Speaker 6: see who's going to win the next presidential election, and
Speaker 6: the Ukrainians, it seems, are also not ready to negotiate,
Speaker 6: although that one I think is a little harder to
Speaker 6: understand because their position is quite difficult. They're very overstretched,
Speaker 6: particularly with this offensive and Cursk, But I think trying Ultimately,
Speaker 6: we're going to have to get to the negotiating table,
Speaker 6: and that's really I think the question we should be
Speaker 6: asking is what is the plan to get there. That's
Speaker 6: one that has not been articulated by Ukraine or the
Speaker 6: Biden administration.
Speaker 4: Well, in the meantime, Kelly, we know Ukraine has been
Speaker 4: making asks of the Biden administration to try to strengthen
Speaker 4: its position, including the desire for them to be able
Speaker 4: to use long range weapons systems to target to target
Speaker 4: targets deeper in Russian territory. What actually changes about the
Speaker 4: state of this conflict if the Biden administration finally relents
Speaker 4: on that.
Speaker 6: Yes, so you know, this is part of the so
Speaker 6: called victory plan that Zelenski came to Deceit or to
Speaker 6: visit Biden to discuss. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be
Speaker 6: much of a victory plan. It's, as you kind of
Speaker 6: point out, it's more of a shopping list, and one
Speaker 6: of those items is long range strike permissions. I think
Speaker 6: the idea that the Ukrainians have is they'd like to
Speaker 6: be able to hit airfields, in particular that where the
Speaker 6: Russians are launching fighter bombers that are carrying these glide
Speaker 6: bombs that have been used against their poss at the front,
Speaker 6: So that would be one of the key things. And
Speaker 6: they'd like to hit infrastructure, probably some energy infrastructure as well.
Speaker 6: The problem though, I think with this is it might
Speaker 6: provide some tactical benefits, you know, early on, but very
Speaker 6: quickly the Russians are going to move these things. Russia
Speaker 6: is a large country. They'll move them back a couple
Speaker 6: hundred miles and it won't really impact the battlefield or
Speaker 6: the course of the war in a very significant way,
Speaker 6: which I think is why the Biden administration has not
Speaker 6: provided these permissions, is that it doesn't have a huge
Speaker 6: impact potentially on the battlefield. But we have a very
Speaker 6: small supply of these kinds of long range weapons and
Speaker 6: we need them ourselves, and there are of course these
Speaker 6: significant escalation risks, so it is.
Speaker 4: Just quickly here, Kelly. It's in part a defense industrial
Speaker 4: base issue too.
Speaker 6: It's a defense industrial based issue, and it is an
Speaker 6: escalation issue. You know, Putin announced a change to the
Speaker 6: nuclear policy, essentially saying that any non nuclear country that
Speaker 6: strikes Russia, if they have assistance from a nuclear armed state,
Speaker 6: it is considered a joint attack, and that Russia could
Speaker 6: respond with nuclear weapons. And that's something that we have
Speaker 6: to still take very seriously. It's not a good sign
Speaker 6: anytime a country changes its official nuclear policy.
Speaker 7: All right, Kelly, Always great to have you.
Speaker 4: Kelly Griico, Senior fellow with the Stimpson Centers Reimagining US
Speaker 4: Grand Strategy program.
Speaker 7: Appreciate your time.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.
Speaker 3: Roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: Then keilely Lines in Washington. Welcome back to Balance of
Speaker 4: Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio, where we've been keeping
Speaker 4: an eye on the Middle East today, as Israel says
Speaker 4: it struck Hesbela's headquarters in Lebanon as it continues its
Speaker 4: fight against the Iranian proxy. This is something that Israeli
Speaker 4: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, who talked about on the floor
Speaker 4: at the United Nations General Assembly in New York earlier today,
Speaker 4: just before we learned about this strike, saying that Israel
Speaker 4: has no choice but to continue as.
Speaker 5: Long as Kizbala chooses the path of war. Israel has
Speaker 5: no choice, and Israel has every right to remove this
Speaker 5: threat and return our citizens to their home safely. And
Speaker 5: that's exactly what we're doing.
Speaker 4: Again, what they are doing appears to be going after
Speaker 4: Hesbela headquarters, at least that's what they've said. And we've
Speaker 4: just learned within the last few moments that the Pentagon
Speaker 4: did not know in advance that Israel was going to
Speaker 4: conduct this operation, Sabrina saying, a spokesperson at the Pentagon
Speaker 4: briefing reporters saying that the US had no advance warning
Speaker 4: of Israel's attack in Lebanon, and that in fact, Defense
Speaker 4: Secretary of Lloyd Austin was speaking with Israel's Jav Gallant
Speaker 4: when the attack was already underway. So for more on this,
Speaker 4: I'm pleased to stay. Joining me here in our Washington,
Speaker 4: d C studio is Hagar Shamali. She is former formerly
Speaker 4: of the National Security Council, where she was director for
Speaker 4: Syria and Lebanon and is now founder and CEO of
Speaker 4: Greenwich Media's Strategieshigar, Welcome.
Speaker 3: Back, Kaylie.
Speaker 1: Good to see you in person.
Speaker 4: It's great to see you as well, especially when we
Speaker 4: have news developing like this. Does it surprise you that
Speaker 4: Israel did not tell the US what it was about
Speaker 4: to do when it is a strike that largely was
Speaker 4: seen or is being seen as an escalatory one.
Speaker 1: It doesn't.
Speaker 8: First of all, if you look at similar assaults like
Speaker 8: this or attacks in in Israel's history, they don't always
Speaker 8: give the US a heads up when they've been targeting
Speaker 8: terrorist commanders and so on, things like that. They don't
Speaker 8: often because these are very sensitive operations. Often they have
Speaker 8: to verify for sure that their target is in fact there,
Speaker 8: and then sometimes those decisions are made within minutes.
Speaker 1: Sometimes they take longer, but often minutes. But also on
Speaker 1: the US.
Speaker 8: Side, they're worried for a league, and if a league happens,
Speaker 8: that target moves and they lose the opportunity. They see it,
Speaker 8: and the US operates so differently. When we targeted in Laden,
Speaker 8: we certainly didn't give the Pakistani is a heads up
Speaker 8: that we were going into their territory on top of it,
Speaker 8: and so that did not surprise me at all.
Speaker 4: Okay, well, fair enough, I wonder if it surprises you
Speaker 4: then net Niyahu was saying, we have to keep going.
Speaker 4: We will continue to do this even in the face
Speaker 4: of US and other allies pushing for a three week
Speaker 4: ceasefire with Hezballah.
Speaker 7: He is saying that Israel has no choice. To what
Speaker 7: extent is that true?
Speaker 8: Okay, well, a few things here, So first, his remarks
Speaker 8: don't surprise me.
Speaker 1: And part of it.
Speaker 8: One of the things you know that I really think
Speaker 8: we need to notice is that over the last few months,
Speaker 8: in particular, the Israeli government has really been the Natiyahu
Speaker 8: government has been quite public and very clear on its intentions,
Speaker 8: and the international community, the United States, Egypt and Cutter,
Speaker 8: who are mediating a ceasefire, are still pushing for a ceasefire.
Speaker 1: And that is the noble and right thing to do.
Speaker 8: We should be pushing both sides to a ceasefire, even
Speaker 8: if we drag both sides to the table kicking and screaming.
Speaker 8: But at the end of the day, both sides are
Speaker 8: also communicating very clearly that they're not ready, that they
Speaker 8: don't want they want to continue fighting, and even with
Speaker 8: what's happening in Lebanon now, very quickly the United States
Speaker 8: put forward sees fibroposal, and just as quickly as they
Speaker 8: put it down, the Israelis and Hisbella shot it down.
Speaker 8: And so there is no appetite at the moment on
Speaker 8: Israel's side when it comes to Lebanon. In particular, they
Speaker 8: view that the fact that the north of the country
Speaker 8: is completely empty undermines the integrity of their territory.
Speaker 1: And the problem with that is.
Speaker 8: That they genuinely fear that Hisbela is going to do
Speaker 8: in October seven style incursion, to go in to invade
Speaker 8: or to compromise that border. And it's also a reflection
Speaker 8: of the failure of the UN, because the UN is
Speaker 8: supposed to maintain the blue line between both and maintain
Speaker 8: that line as disarmed, and they clearly haven't been able
Speaker 8: to do that. And so that's Israel's view here. But
Speaker 8: the problem is, while while they're saying, you know, Hisbela,
Speaker 8: you've been lobbing missiles at us NonStop, and we kept
Speaker 8: it kind of the secret understanding at a tit for
Speaker 8: tet level and now we're done, you have to stop.
Speaker 8: We want to return our citizens to the North and
Speaker 8: we can't have this land be empty. The problem is
Speaker 8: is are the assaults they're pursuing now. While it shows
Speaker 8: that Israel is not afraid of a full scale escalation,
Speaker 8: it could also it's just going to create another generation
Speaker 8: of people, and it's going to further undermine what is
Speaker 8: already a failed state in Lebanon and create a generation
Speaker 8: of people who are going to run to the arms
Speaker 8: of terrorism as a method.
Speaker 1: And that's my concern for Israel's long term security.
Speaker 8: But I understand why Israel it feels they need to
Speaker 8: approach Zballah through military action.
Speaker 7: As well well.
Speaker 4: And we should point out Lebanese authorities say more than
Speaker 4: seven hundred people have been killed and strikes just over
Speaker 4: the course of the last week or so, fifty of
Speaker 4: them children. It does raise the question, though, Hagar, of
Speaker 4: what kind of retaliation you would expect from Hesbela, who
Speaker 4: maybe doesn't have great incentive to escalate this conflict if
Speaker 4: they don't have to. But also if your headquarters have
Speaker 4: just been hit, you don't want to be seen as weak.
Speaker 8: Right yes, they've actually been seen as quite weak over
Speaker 8: the last few weeks, in particular because the tit for
Speaker 8: tat that's been going on for the last eleven months
Speaker 8: between Hesbela and Israel seems to have actually genuinely weakened
Speaker 8: Hasbella's leadership.
Speaker 5: For sure.
Speaker 8: They've targeted apparently five hundred comand their communications, as we've seen,
Speaker 8: are all compromised and they feel they can't communicate with
Speaker 8: each other. And you also have weapons depots and so
Speaker 8: on that have been targeted. That doesn't mean that they
Speaker 8: don't have more operatives, that they don't have many thousands
Speaker 8: more operatives, thousands more missiles, and that could cause a
Speaker 8: great destruction, of course, but we're seeing them struggle. The
Speaker 8: Iron Dome is intercepting many.
Speaker 1: Of the missiles.
Speaker 8: Of course, some of them are hitting. It's still not
Speaker 8: safe in the north of Israel.
Speaker 1: But Hisbela is.
Speaker 8: Showing, in my opinion, a weakness automatically, and it makes
Speaker 8: me wonder if they're going to try to go try
Speaker 8: to go back to the status quo because Iran doesn't
Speaker 8: want to confront Israel directly, they want their proxies to
Speaker 8: do it.
Speaker 4: Well, I was just going to ask about the role
Speaker 4: of Iran in this. Does what Iran rather has Bla
Speaker 4: be perceived is weak but not actually have this escalating
Speaker 4: into a wider regional conflict or do they want to
Speaker 4: have their proxies still be able to fight their fights
Speaker 4: for them and therefore would be encouraging Hasbela to do
Speaker 4: what it means to do to showcase strength.
Speaker 8: Yes, well, so it is absolutely no interest to have
Speaker 8: its proxies continue to attack Israel, continue to bother Israel
Speaker 8: and undermine Israel for sure, without Iran being roped in
Speaker 8: in any way. And we saw that after Israel attack
Speaker 8: Hamas's leader in Iran is Haniya back over the summer,
Speaker 8: you saw Iran respond with a lot of bluster and
Speaker 8: promising to respond.
Speaker 1: Well, we haven't seen that response, Yett.
Speaker 8: And it was because ceasefire talks started to become very serious,
Speaker 8: because a ceasefire ultimately benefits Iran. Iran is weak right now,
Speaker 8: the regime is weak. Their people don't really want the regime,
Speaker 8: and so they know there's only so far they can go.
Speaker 8: And the threat of the US getting involved if Israel
Speaker 8: is attacked by Iran is a deterrence that serves quite.
Speaker 1: Well in pushing back on Iran.
Speaker 8: But that's why they're happy having the Huthis attack, has
Speaker 8: Bella attack, Hamas attack, and Israel views this it seems
Speaker 8: as a war to fundamentally change things on the ground,
Speaker 8: like a nineteen sixty seven war, like a nineteen seventy
Speaker 8: three war. Not in terms of length, the length they
Speaker 8: think will be much longer. But this isn't any more
Speaker 8: more about punishing Hamas defeating Hamas. This seems to be
Speaker 8: for them more about their existential This this threat to
Speaker 8: their existence, and that they want to fundamentally change how
Speaker 8: terrorists are operating on the ground and posing a threat
Speaker 8: to them.
Speaker 4: Well, that does make me wonder about Israeli public sentiment
Speaker 4: because we have seen domestic pressure on Netanyahu, especially as
Speaker 4: it pertains to Gaza, given the hostages that remain there,
Speaker 4: especially in the aftermath of the death of the six
Speaker 4: hostages that were executed by Hamas most recently. I wonder
Speaker 4: how sentiment factors into the conversation around the North and Lebanon,
Speaker 4: and if there may be more support domestically for what
Speaker 4: Israel is doing there then there may be in Gaza
Speaker 4: at this.
Speaker 1: Time domestically in israel I mean, yeah, I do believe.
Speaker 4: There doesn't matter frankly at all to the Natanyahu government.
Speaker 8: Well, you know what matters to the Natiyahu government or
Speaker 8: Netiyahu's himself, is that he wants to remain in power,
Speaker 8: and he knows that if he doesn't he cuts a
Speaker 8: ceasefire deal, not on his terms or even on his terms,
Speaker 8: his far right cabinet members who are extreme will could
Speaker 8: collapse his government and then it will go into an election.
Speaker 8: He'll lose that election, and then he'll face corruption charges
Speaker 8: that he's going to that he's going to face at
Speaker 8: some point inevitably, and so on.
Speaker 1: There's on that side.
Speaker 8: Domestically, you do have a very strong push for citizens
Speaker 8: to return to the North and to feel safe returning
Speaker 8: to the North. And so I don't see yet. I
Speaker 8: don't see yet a pushback in Israel. It could change, though,
Speaker 8: it could shift in Lebanon. In Lebanon, nobody is Nobody
Speaker 8: wants to invite a war. Nobody who doesn't support Hasbola
Speaker 8: is excited about a war being invited into the country.
Speaker 8: But there is a deep understanding that Hesbelah is the
Speaker 8: one that invited this war. For not Hasbella supporters, meaning
Speaker 8: Christians and Sunny for the larger part. But that doesn't
Speaker 8: mean that they also want Israel pursuing these attacks in
Speaker 8: Lebanon in general, even though they know that Habela is
Speaker 8: the one launching these missiles in the north.
Speaker 4: Finally, hagar Is we consider it the domestic pressure on
Speaker 4: Netanyahu and some of these other domestic pressures within all
Speaker 4: of these different countries. There are also as great domestic
Speaker 4: pressure in the US on this administration to get a
Speaker 4: ceasefire done in Gaza. We've heard from President Biden after
Speaker 4: announcing he would not seek reelection, one of the things
Speaker 4: he said he wanted to accomplish before leaving office is
Speaker 4: not just a ceasefire between Israel and Amas, but peace
Speaker 4: in the Middle East. It feels like we have gotten
Speaker 4: significantly farther away from that goal than we've gotten towards it.
Speaker 4: And I wonder if you think any of what he
Speaker 4: wants to accomplish is realistically going to get done before
Speaker 4: he leaves office in January.
Speaker 1: Well, the short answer is no, I don't think any
Speaker 1: of it will get done.
Speaker 8: But unfortunately, when he said the part about the ceasefire,
Speaker 8: I do think that at that time in the summer
Speaker 8: that he could believe that.
Speaker 1: I believed it. I said it on this show.
Speaker 8: There were a lot of factors that seemed like a
Speaker 8: ceasefire was near. And I will say in history, in
Speaker 8: many Israel peace negotiations, you've had US officials that they
Speaker 8: still say the same thing.
Speaker 1: You know, it's down to the ten percent.
Speaker 8: It's down as Secretary Blincoln sent to the last three
Speaker 8: paragraphs of an eighteen para proposal negotiation, and even with that,
Speaker 8: many times negotiations have failed over not being able to
Speaker 8: agree on those that last ten percent. And the ADMINISTRACI
Speaker 8: itself seems to have itself lost hope in the idea
Speaker 8: that a ceasefire is achievable by the election.
Speaker 1: Middle East piece, I don't think is a chieved.
Speaker 8: I'm so sorry, but I don't think that's achievable for
Speaker 8: a while, certainly not now, But no think I don't
Speaker 8: think that even they believe it's achievable at this point.
Speaker 4: All right, Well, we have just had a headline cross
Speaker 4: the Bloomberg Terminal that Biden has been briefed on these
Speaker 4: Bay Route strikes by his national security team. Again, this
Speaker 4: is after the Pentagon said that the US was not
Speaker 4: told in advance that these strikes were coming.
Speaker 7: Hungarre.
Speaker 4: Great to have you here in studio, especially as we're
Speaker 4: dealing with news like this. A Garshamali, of course, formerly
Speaker 4: of the National Security Council, now founder and CEO of
Speaker 4: Greenwich Media Strategies.
Speaker 7: Enjoy the rest of your time in Washington.
Speaker 4: Appreciate you being here on balance of power and especially
Speaker 4: the conversation around the proxies of Iran and Iran itself.
Speaker 4: We're going to continue talking about Iran in our next conversation.
Speaker 4: Is The US Justice Department today unveiled charge it's against
Speaker 4: a number of Iranian operatives for allegedly carrying out the
Speaker 4: Iranian hack on Donald Trump's twenty twenty four presidential campaign
Speaker 4: earlier this year. It claims these individuals gained access to
Speaker 4: internal documents of people working on the campaign, then shared
Speaker 4: that with journalists and officials working for what was then
Speaker 4: the Biden campaign. We're going to have more on this
Speaker 4: in an exclusive conversation coming up in just a moment
Speaker 4: with Lisa Monico. She is the Deputy Attorney General of
Speaker 4: the United States, So stick with us for that. We'll
Speaker 4: have more ahead here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emocarplay and then
Speaker 2: froud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 4: This is Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio,
Speaker 4: where we are about to have a very important conversation
Speaker 4: as we are just weeks away from the twenty twenty
Speaker 4: five or presidential election. The Department of Justice this afternoon
Speaker 4: just announced new charges against multiple people for allegedly carrying
Speaker 4: out an Iranian backed operation to hack the campaign of
Speaker 4: Donald Trump. That hacker, remember, was first confirmed by the
Speaker 4: campaign last month. Security officials said Iron had sent the
Speaker 4: stolen material to people linked to what was then the
Speaker 4: Biden reelection campaign, journalists as well, And we want to
Speaker 4: have more on this in the wider efforts of foreign
Speaker 4: actors to interfere in the US election, and turn for
Speaker 4: an exclusive interview to the US Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monico,
Speaker 4: who is joining us now. Ma'am, thank you so much
Speaker 4: for being with us here on Bloombery. This is incredibly
Speaker 4: important conversation. If we could begin with just the charges
Speaker 4: that were unveiled today in these specific actors who have
Speaker 4: now been indicted, What do you know about the intentions
Speaker 4: of them? Is this part of a wider effort Aroan
Speaker 4: is using to turn the tide against Donald Trump in
Speaker 4: this election.
Speaker 9: Good afternoon, Kley, and thanks very much for having me.
Speaker 9: What we've announced today are charges against three Iranian hackers
Speaker 9: who are engaging in a malign foreign influence campaign. The
Speaker 9: charges we have laid out today and announced today lay
Speaker 9: out a year's long hacking campaign targeting current and former
Speaker 9: government officials, targeting journalists, and most recently, targeting US political campaigns.
Speaker 9: As you indicated, these charges include discussion and laying out
Speaker 9: of a malicious cyber activity that the intelligence community in
Speaker 9: the FBI has previously referenced. These efforts included a malicious
Speaker 9: Iranian cyber actors sending unsolicited emails to individuals then associated
Speaker 9: with the campaign of President Biden, and those emails contained
Speaker 9: stolen excerpts excerpts of stolen non public material from the
Speaker 9: Trump campaign. I should point out, Kayley, that there's no
Speaker 9: indication that the recipients replied to those emails. To your
Speaker 9: question about intent, the hackers made clear in their very
Speaker 9: own words, and we've laid this out in the charging
Speaker 9: document we unsealed today, and that intent is to undermine
Speaker 9: the campaign of former President Trump in advance of the election.
Speaker 4: And I wonder, ma'am, how you see these efforts differing
Speaker 4: or working in tandem with the efforts of other adversaries,
Speaker 4: be it Russia or China for example. Are they working
Speaker 4: in concert or are they all working in different ways
Speaker 4: with similar motives.
Speaker 9: Well, look, this is part of the charges we announced today,
Speaker 9: and the broader aggressive activity that we are seeing from Iran,
Speaker 9: from Russia, from China are part of a very complex,
Speaker 9: diverse and aggressive foreign malign influence effort that we are
Speaker 9: seeing from our adversaries in this election cycle. So the
Speaker 9: charges we've announced today, I think are consistent with what
Speaker 9: we have been seeing and warning about. The intelligence community
Speaker 9: has been quite clear over the last weeks and months
Speaker 9: about what we are seeing in the way of foreign
Speaker 9: malign influence. You have seen the Justice Department take aggressive
Speaker 9: action in the last several weeks. We unveiled the operations
Speaker 9: of Russian actors. In the last couple of weeks, we
Speaker 9: exposed Russian foreign malign influence campaigns, again all directed at
Speaker 9: and an effort to sow discord, to so mistrust, and
Speaker 9: to undermine our confidence in our election process.
Speaker 4: Well, of course, what you're alluding to the seizure of
Speaker 4: dozens of domains that the DOJS alleging have been propagating
Speaker 4: Russian backed efforts to spread foreign malign influence, including around
Speaker 4: the presidential election. I believe there was some thirty two
Speaker 4: of those. Man, how far does that web go and
Speaker 4: what else is Russia specifically doing? Are you seeing it
Speaker 4: having an impact?
Speaker 9: That's exactly right, kaylie. What we exposed a few weeks
Speaker 9: ago were Putin directed efforts using a Russian state operated
Speaker 9: media arm RT to spread Russian propaganda, to spread pro
Speaker 9: Russian narratives, using unwitting American commentators to do so, to
Speaker 9: funnel millions of dollars to a US company in order
Speaker 9: to do that, And we also exposed the work of
Speaker 9: a proxy company again Putin Directed, called the Social Design Agency,
Speaker 9: which a proxy company used by Russia to push out
Speaker 9: AI generated content, again pushing out Russian propaganda targeting US
Speaker 9: voters and specific voter demographics, all in an effort to
Speaker 9: influence the election, to undermine confidence in our election process,
Speaker 9: to undermine also from the Russi perspective to undermine our
Speaker 9: support for Ukraine. So this is part of a broader
Speaker 9: scheme and efforts, very aggressive efforts by Russian foreign malign actors.
Speaker 4: Again, we're in conversation here with the US Deputy Attorney
Speaker 4: General Lisa Monaco on Bloomberg Television and Radio. Obviously, ma'am,
Speaker 4: there are a number of channels and ways in which
Speaker 4: miss and disinformation that could be aimed at influencing voters
Speaker 4: can circulate in the modern age, including on social media,
Speaker 4: on platforms for example like X. Is the DJ working
Speaker 4: with X and elon Musk to try to tamp down
Speaker 4: on that missed and disinformation. And if you're trying, are
Speaker 4: you seeing cooperation on the other side.
Speaker 9: Well, look, what we're doing is doing everything we can
Speaker 9: to investigate, to expose, and to disrupt these activities. When
Speaker 9: we see foreign malign influence activity on platforms across the
Speaker 9: United States, we are taking that information, using that information,
Speaker 9: and sharing it with platforms including X. We are very
Speaker 9: focused on providing social media platforms information, actionable information in
Speaker 9: real time so that they can take action under their
Speaker 9: own discretion, making their own judgments consistent with the first Amendment.
Speaker 9: We are providing them information and then they are taking
Speaker 9: action at their own discretion to address that activity that
Speaker 9: we point out to them. So we will continue to
Speaker 9: do that. Our focus is on making sure we are
Speaker 9: exposing this activity so that Americans can be discerning consumers,
Speaker 9: because kayleie, American voters should be deciding our election, not
Speaker 9: our foreign adversaries.
Speaker 4: Well, on that point, ma'am, it's one thing to put
Speaker 4: out information, be it disor missinformation, aimed at influencing American votes.
Speaker 4: It's another thing entirely to actually try to disrupt or
Speaker 4: tamper with the electoral process itself. To what extent is
Speaker 4: the Department of Justice concerned about potential cybery, even physical
Speaker 4: disruptions to the election process, be it on election Day
Speaker 4: in November or in the early voting leading up to it.
Speaker 9: So two things I would say on this, Kaylee. One,
Speaker 9: we see our foreign adversaries trying to put into their
Speaker 9: malign influence campaigns disinformation and misinformation about the vulnerability of
Speaker 9: our voting systems. Our voting systems are quite resilient, and
Speaker 9: they are quite diffuse, and they are by and large
Speaker 9: not connected and almost a majority not connected to the Internet.
Speaker 9: My colleagues at SISA over at DHS have the lead
Speaker 9: for the federal government in working to protect our critical
Speaker 9: infrastructure and importantly working with state and local officials to
Speaker 9: protect that infrastructure, that voting infrastructure. Remember, the voting in
Speaker 9: this country is control, owned, operated, and administered all at
Speaker 9: the state and local level. So our job in the
Speaker 9: federal government, working across the Justice Department, the Department of
Speaker 9: Homeland Security, is to assist our state and local partners
Speaker 9: in that effort. We are sharing information about efforts to
Speaker 9: influence those that electoral process, but the election systems and
Speaker 9: the infrastructure themselves are very diffuse and very diffuse across
Speaker 9: the state and local jurisdictions and not connected to the Internet,
Speaker 9: so people should be on the lookout for misinformation about.
Speaker 4: That, Madam, Deputy Attorney General. I'd like to turn to
Speaker 4: another issue is yesterday the DOJ also charged to Russian
Speaker 4: nationals in a crypto laundering scheme. What can you tell
Speaker 4: us about how pervasive these potential laundering networks are, what
Speaker 4: their aims are, and how the DOJ is working in
Speaker 4: concert with other agencies like say the SA and cracking
Speaker 4: down in this regard.
Speaker 9: So you're quite right, Kelly. We took action yesterday to
Speaker 9: disrupt a number of malicious cyber criminals and to disrupt
Speaker 9: the criminal ecosystem that fuels their activity to Russian nationals,
Speaker 9: and also we disrupted an illicit crypto exchange called cryptics.
Speaker 9: This is part of our overall effort to disrupt wherever
Speaker 9: we can, the criminal ecosystem that is fueling everything from
Speaker 9: ransomware to darknet, drug trafficking to money laundering. And it
Speaker 9: was money laundering that was really at issue here. These
Speaker 9: are two Russian nationals engaged in a massive money laundering
Speaker 9: schemes that were fueling criminal activity across a whole spectrum
Speaker 9: of areas. As I said, ransomware and drug trafficking. What
Speaker 9: we are seeing is crypto, for instance, is the lifeblood
Speaker 9: of a lot of this illicit activity, including ransomware. It
Speaker 9: may be advertised as borderless, but what we are showing,
Speaker 9: including with yesterday's charges that we brought, is that we
Speaker 9: will follow it wherever it goes, including to the darkest corners,
Speaker 9: and hold individuals to account.
Speaker 4: Finally, ma'am, while we have you, I won't ask you
Speaker 4: to comment directly on the indictment of Eric Adams, but
Speaker 4: I do have a wider question for you about the
Speaker 4: perception and institutional trust in the Department of Justice. After
Speaker 4: that indictment came down, we heard from Donald Trump calling
Speaker 4: the Justice Department quote dirty players. I don't have to
Speaker 4: tell you he's argued consistently that the DOJ is being
Speaker 4: weaponized against him. Many of his supporters believe that largely
Speaker 4: to be true. How much harder is it for you
Speaker 4: to do your work when your credibility is being questioned
Speaker 4: by people at the highest levels of American politics.
Speaker 9: I'm not going to comment on those attacks, Kayley, except
Speaker 9: to say that the men and women of the Justice
Speaker 9: Department are doing their job every single day, without fear
Speaker 9: or favor, without regard to any political affiliation, following the
Speaker 9: facts wherever they lead. And yesterday's charges announced by the
Speaker 9: Southern District of New York I think reflect exactly that principle.
Speaker 4: All right, we will leave it on that note. We
Speaker 4: sincerely appreciate your time US Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco
Speaker 4: for an exclusive interview here on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.
Speaker 3: Roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 4: I've got some figures for you as well, fresh data
Speaker 4: out of the swing states thanks to Bloomberg's new polling
Speaker 4: with Morning consult that finds Kamala Harris up three points
Speaker 4: against Donald Trump across the seven battlegrounds that could ultimately
Speaker 4: decide this election. To run you through the headline figure,
Speaker 4: She's up seven percentage points in Nevada.
Speaker 7: That is her widest lead.
Speaker 4: She leads by five in Pennsylvania, three in Arizona, Michigan,
Speaker 4: and Wisconsin. Up by two points in North Carolina. The
Speaker 4: only state in which she and Donald Trump are tied.
Speaker 7: Is in Georgia.
Speaker 4: But all of these figures are within the poll's margin
Speaker 4: of error. It's important to note. But what's also important
Speaker 4: to note is that these figures also suggest that the
Speaker 4: improvement she's seeing in the polls is coming simultaneously with
Speaker 4: improvement on the issue of the economy. So for more,
Speaker 4: let's turn to Elioakley. He is Morning consults Us politics
Speaker 4: analysts joining me here on Bloomberg TV and Radio, as
Speaker 4: he does every month when this poll comes out. Always
Speaker 4: good to see you, Eli. Let's just start with the
Speaker 4: economy overall first, because this data is striking for us
Speaker 4: here at Bloomberg. Trump only up four percentage points on
Speaker 4: her on the economy overall, and when likely voters were
Speaker 4: asked who they trust more to handle the cost of
Speaker 4: everyday goods, it's a virtual tie forty seven Trump forty
Speaker 4: six Harris.
Speaker 10: What has changed here, Well, Kamala Harris is getting good
Speaker 10: marks on just about everything we're testing right now, and
Speaker 10: that's translating to how voters are perceiving her on the
Speaker 10: issues we saw even improvements one she's like immigration. But
Speaker 10: look when you dive into the economic issues, I mean,
Speaker 10: the cost of living, healthcare, and housing are the top
Speaker 10: three concerns for likely voters across the swing state map,
Speaker 10: and on all those issues she is making games. She
Speaker 10: already had an advantage on healthcare, she's picked up an
Speaker 10: advantage on housing, and she's tied with Trump on the
Speaker 10: issue of costs. Voters are taking a look at her.
Speaker 10: It seems that it's one of her economic messaging is
Speaker 10: breaking through to them and that's translating it to a
Speaker 10: big growth in trust across a lot of these states.
Speaker 4: Well, so let's think about how this breaks down state
Speaker 4: by state, because obviously she's looking at varying degrees of
Speaker 4: leads here or lack thereof in Georgia, for example, where
Speaker 4: she's tied.
Speaker 7: Is there a relationship between how.
Speaker 4: Voters in these states are viewing the economy and how
Speaker 4: well she is performing, or is it other issues depending
Speaker 4: on which state we're looking at.
Speaker 10: I mean, this electorate is so parison at this point.
Speaker 10: I think a lot of this is coming down to
Speaker 10: the kinds of voters who say they're likely to vote
Speaker 10: in the members election. I think that we're seeing in
Speaker 10: some of these other states more enthusiasm among Democratic voters.
Speaker 10: I think that in Georgia perhaps it's a little less
Speaker 10: among Democrats.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 10: That's Donald Trump's big play here in the next few
Speaker 10: weeks is whether he can change this likely voter sample
Speaker 10: that we're getting right now that has been as political
Speaker 10: magic when he has won elections, is bringing in voters
Speaker 10: who do not say today that they're likely to vote
Speaker 10: right now. Among these people who are excited about showing
Speaker 10: up at the polls, he is not performing that great
Speaker 10: across the Swing States. On the economy in particular, we
Speaker 10: have seen a bit of an improvement in how voters
Speaker 10: are perceiving their personal situation the country's situation. That is
Speaker 10: something that I think, if it continues, seems to be
Speaker 10: something that would benefit Kamala Harris. But look, it's gonna
Speaker 10: be along a few weeks as Donald Trump tries to
Speaker 10: try to win back some of these folks.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I wonder how these results may have been
Speaker 4: changed by a FED rate cut as well or the
Speaker 4: expectation that it was happening. We know that borrowing costs
Speaker 4: could have a big deal, a big impact into terms
Speaker 4: of how people are thinking about their own balance sheets,
Speaker 4: in the cost of buying a home or what have you, Right, Eli, Yeah.
Speaker 10: I mean is a big deal. A lot of voters,
Speaker 10: about half of voters I think, said that that might
Speaker 10: have a positive impact on the economy. You know, Kamala
Speaker 10: Harris has been out front on this housing issue in
Speaker 10: a way that President Biden really wasn't. I think voters,
Speaker 10: particularly in Nevada, are thirsty for answers on this issue
Speaker 10: as they face housing costs there. She's taken plans to
Speaker 10: the electric to deal with this issue in a way
Speaker 10: Donald Trump hadn't, and it appears that's resonating. She's doing
Speaker 10: very well in Nevada in a way Biden wasn't. Donald
Speaker 10: Trump is not competitive there currently, and some of this
Speaker 10: stuff seems to be breaking through to folks.
Speaker 4: I also want to talk about the issue of immigration,
Speaker 4: because that's the one she's focused on today. She will
Speaker 4: be this afternoon traveling to Arizona making a trip to
Speaker 4: the border, which of course Republicans have been critical of
Speaker 4: her not doing during her time as candidate and vice
Speaker 4: president as frequently as they believe that she should. On immigration,
Speaker 4: that does still appear to be a weakness for her
Speaker 4: in these states. Eliah fourteen percent lead enjoyed by Donald
Speaker 4: Trump on that issue, and it is a wide margin
Speaker 4: as well in states like Arizona and Nevada.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 10: I mean since Joe Biden took office, even back when
Speaker 10: he was very popular at the beginning of his term,
Speaker 10: this immigration issue has weighed on him and the Democratic
Speaker 10: Party overall. I think what Kama Harris is trying to
Speaker 10: do today is to go on the offense against Donald
Speaker 10: Trump and highlight the fact that he helped kill a
Speaker 10: bipartisan immigration bill in Congress this year. You know, a
Speaker 10: lot of things that happen on Capitol Hill don't break
Speaker 10: through to the electorate the big way, and so it's
Speaker 10: incumbent on her to try to raise that to voters.
Speaker 10: I don't know how trusted she is on that issue
Speaker 10: right now, just given the postured voters half towards the
Speaker 10: Democratic Party. But you know, addressing the issue taking a
Speaker 10: head on is something that could break through and help
Speaker 10: her with some of these remaining undecided voters.
Speaker 4: Finally, Eli, as we consider the sun Belt states, the
Speaker 4: border states are border rejacent states like Arizona or one thing.
Speaker 4: Then there's states like North Carolina, which have had their
Speaker 4: own kind of disrupted, disruptive events, if you will. Over
Speaker 4: the course of the last several weeks. When it comes
Speaker 4: to the Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who of course
Speaker 4: was endorsed by Donald Trump, has faced allegations of making
Speaker 4: some pretty disturbing messages on a number of peorn platforms.
Speaker 4: For example, have we started to see that show up
Speaker 4: in the data? Do you think that has any role
Speaker 4: in the two point advantage Harris is currently enjoying in
Speaker 4: that state.
Speaker 10: I don't think we saw much change month over month.
Speaker 10: I mean, this survey was conducted just after some of
Speaker 10: these revelations about Bark Robinson came down. In our surveys
Speaker 10: we've seen at hereporning Console he was already trailing Jeff
Speaker 10: Stein by double digits in that state. He was underperforming
Speaker 10: Donald Trump really really significantly. The voters of North Carolina
Speaker 10: do not seem that interested in what he has to
Speaker 10: offer them. The question will be the amount of energy
Speaker 10: that folks put into that state. Now though, is this
Speaker 10: our Republican's going to write this off a bit? They
Speaker 10: probably shouldn't. It's a very important state for their chances.
Speaker 10: But you know, democrats in market Stein has a great
Speaker 10: opportunity here to try to lift up Kamala Harris with
Speaker 10: a campaign that's going to have a lot of energy
Speaker 10: among Democrats who see victory coming up in no effort.
Speaker 4: All right, Eli Yoakley, always great to have you morning
Speaker 4: consult at US Politics Analyst.
Speaker 7: Thank you very much for joining me. Now we want
Speaker 7: to turn back on.
Speaker 4: These poll results to our signature political panel Rick Davis
Speaker 4: Stone Court Capital partner and Republican strategist alongside Jeanie Shanzeno,
Speaker 4: Senior Democracy fellow at the Center for the Study of
Speaker 4: the Presidency and Congress, and democratic strategists, both of them
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, I'd like to begin with you,
Speaker 4: just given your deep knowledge of the state of Arizona.
Speaker 4: She is obviously going there today. This poll shows her
Speaker 4: leading Trump by three points within the margin of error.
Speaker 4: She's specifically going there to address the issue that she
Speaker 4: perhaps is weakest on if our polls are to be believed, immigration.
Speaker 4: How capable of moving the needle on this issue will
Speaker 4: she be if she goes and goes to the border.
Speaker 4: Does it actually make a difference with forty days to
Speaker 4: go until the election, Well, I definitely think.
Speaker 11: It makes a difference. This is the biggest hesitation about
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris that voters have, especially in the Sun Belt states,
Speaker 11: and doesn't rank as big an issue in the blue
Speaker 11: Wall states. But if you want to compete in Georgia,
Speaker 11: in Arizona, and Nevada in North Carolina, you have to
Speaker 11: have something to say about immigration. And she's been relatively quiet.
Speaker 11: I mean, she has been going heavy on economic issues
Speaker 11: and then obviously starting to show in the pulling douta
Speaker 11: that you just discussed. But this is a chance for
Speaker 11: her to change the script a little bit, and she's
Speaker 11: got something to say. I mean, Donald Trump killed a
Speaker 11: bill that would have been a significant change in border
Speaker 11: policy for the first time in decades, that was supported
Speaker 11: actively by the Biden Harris administration. So that'll be your
Speaker 11: talking point today. And if she can create some comfort
Speaker 11: that she isn't the raging liberal with open borders that
Speaker 11: Donald Trump has painted her as, then I think she
Speaker 11: will will satisfy some of the questions that undecided voters
Speaker 11: might have about her. And she's not only showing up
Speaker 11: at the border, but she's also posting up a new
Speaker 11: border ad that will help echo whatever happens today on
Speaker 11: the border.
Speaker 4: So Jennie, I'd love for you to weigh in on
Speaker 4: this as well. Knowing that Harris at the same time,
Speaker 4: she's tried to showcase that she has been a prosecutor.
Speaker 4: She repeatedly says that she has prosecuted transnational criminal organizations
Speaker 4: and targeted the flow of illegal substances and activity over
Speaker 4: the border. She has also talked about, and we saw
Speaker 4: her do this in an interview on MSNBC earlier this week,
Speaker 4: how she also supports creating more legal pathways to immigration.
Speaker 4: What is the appropriate balance for her here if she
Speaker 4: does want to draw in these independent voters but also
Speaker 4: not alienate certain portions of her party.
Speaker 12: Yeah, it's a tough app for her to walk, But
Speaker 12: I think you used exactly the right word, Kaylee, and
Speaker 12: that is prosecutor. She has today got to prosecute Donald
Speaker 12: Trump for killing the bill and leaving us in the
Speaker 12: position where we are.
Speaker 5: Now.
Speaker 12: That's what she's got to say. We had a bill
Speaker 12: we were pushing forward for change. It was bipartisan, The
Speaker 12: Wall Street Journal, conservatives all described it as the toughest
Speaker 12: border security bill, and yet you killed it solely so
Speaker 12: you could run for president and have a chance of
Speaker 12: being elected. She's got to prosecute that case. And then
Speaker 12: she's got to make the case that this is part
Speaker 12: of her economic security care economy, that she is both
Speaker 12: tough on the border, tough on security, and she also
Speaker 12: recognizes that we have a society in which immigrants and
Speaker 12: migrants have played a critical role in making us who
Speaker 12: we are today, and we should be proud of them
Speaker 12: and welcome them when they come here legally. And she's
Speaker 12: going to ensure that happens, So she has a lot
Speaker 12: to say today. I think she should have been doing
Speaker 12: this earlier, but it's important she's doing it now because,
Speaker 12: as you were just mentioning, the Morning Council poll, all
Speaker 12: poll show she's behind on Donald Trump when it comes
Speaker 12: to this issue of the border in the minds of
Speaker 12: many voters.
Speaker 4: But is gaining ground on him when it comes to
Speaker 4: the economy, which you were just alluding to, Genie and
Speaker 4: Rick also mentioned. So I guess to some extent that
Speaker 4: does show us that her messaging and the policy idea
Speaker 4: she has put forward are resonating. I just wonder, Genie,
Speaker 4: if you think we're starting to reach the point in
Speaker 4: the election cycle where economic feeling is going to be
Speaker 4: to a large degree already banked in, even if we
Speaker 4: have seen it change over the course of the last
Speaker 4: several months since Joe Biden was the candidate to now Harris,
Speaker 4: things can only move so much from here, I would imagine, right.
Speaker 12: That's true, and I think, you know, Harris has done
Speaker 12: a good job, But I also think two other factors
Speaker 12: are important. Number one, the numbers and what has happened economically.
Speaker 12: I've worked in her favor. Consumer sentiment out that you
Speaker 12: were just talking about. That's to her favor. The Fed's
Speaker 12: decision September eighteenth, that's to her favor. So she's benefiting
Speaker 12: from a stronger economic numbers that people are feeling and
Speaker 12: seeing on the ground. And she's also benefiting, quite frankly,
Speaker 12: from the fact that Donald Trump sam simply seems not
Speaker 12: to be able to prosecute the case against her. He
Speaker 12: is out hawking commemorative coins when he should be making
Speaker 12: the case that she and Joe Biden have been bad
Speaker 12: for the economy and bad for security. So I think
Speaker 12: she's benefiting from those two things almost as much as
Speaker 12: she has from her ability to sell her plan and
Speaker 12: this care economy, and all of those things have allowed
Speaker 12: her to decrease the amount by which voters see him
Speaker 12: as good for the economy. Now, let's not forget voters
Speaker 12: have something to lose. She's got to keep saying, do
Speaker 12: you want to take somebody who's threatening sixty percent tariffs,
Speaker 12: that's inflationary, that hurts our jobs. Don't let him do that,
Speaker 12: and don't let him risk what we've done, as we've
Speaker 12: come so far and people don't want to risk that.
Speaker 12: And so that's to her benefit. As well.
Speaker 4: So, Rick, what do you do if you're Donald Trump?
Speaker 4: Do you double down on economic attacks to try to
Speaker 4: stem the tide of her progress on this issue? Where
Speaker 4: do you pivot to other areas of weakness more aggressively,
Speaker 4: like the border or something else.
Speaker 11: Well, I would remind everybody that it was September seventeenth
Speaker 11: in two thousand and eight, in the middle of a
Speaker 11: winning campaign that John McCain was running against Barack Obama
Speaker 11: that changed the entire world's economic point of view when
Speaker 11: Lehman Brothers failed and completely upset the campaign. So I
Speaker 11: would not say it's too late for economics to play
Speaker 11: a significant role in this campaign, And unfortunately for Donald Trump,
Speaker 11: it seems to be headed in the opposite direction. Record
Speaker 11: that Wall Street has had this week. These things add
Speaker 11: to the flavor of voters' views about Kamala Harrison her economy.
Speaker 11: It's not just the speeches and the ads that she's running.
Speaker 11: She has an environmental picture that seems to be helping her.
Speaker 11: That being said, the biggest hurdle I think that Donald
Speaker 11: Trump has right now as he's getting out spent four
Speaker 11: to one on TV in the targeted swing states. So
Speaker 11: when she says something four times more people are hearing
Speaker 11: it than when Donald Trump says it. And we know
Speaker 11: Donald Trump is a master of earned media. But unless
Speaker 11: he can stay disciplined on the messages that he is
Speaker 11: talking about, he's going to get out shouted on all
Speaker 11: these issues by the Harris campaign. And so I know
Speaker 11: Republicans are particularly concerned about the fact that Donald Trump
Speaker 11: is getting drowned out. And the facts are that he
Speaker 11: is running out of time to prosecute this attack on
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris, whether it is on immigration or the economy
Speaker 11: or any other issue that is current in the news today.
Speaker 11: Donald Trump spent the whole day today getting basically news
Speaker 11: around meeting with Zelensky on Ukraine, not an issue that
Speaker 11: is going to be particularly helpful to him. It's stunning
Speaker 11: to see Kamala Harris actually up by a point in
Speaker 11: our pool on Commander in Chief ratings. So right now
Speaker 11: is a bad cycle for Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: All right, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino, our signature political panel.
Speaker 7: Thank you so much for joining me.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 10: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 10: or wherever you get your podcasts, and
Speaker 11: You can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC
Speaker 11: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.