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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Proud.

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Speaker 3: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: We also need to talk about what's going on in

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Speaker 4: the Middle East. Is Israel has just said it hit

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Speaker 4: Hesbela's main headquarters in southern Bay Route the Israeli Defense

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Speaker 4: Forces on x saying that the IDF conducted what it's

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Speaker 4: calling a precise strike on the central headquarters of the

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Speaker 4: Hesbela terrorist organization, embedded under residential buildings in the heart

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Speaker 4: of a part of Beyrout. This, of course, is coming

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Speaker 4: after we heard from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahoo at

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Speaker 4: the UN General Assembly in New York earlier today saying

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Speaker 4: Israel has no choice but to keep fighting as.

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Speaker 5: Long as kz Balachu this is the path of war.

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Speaker 5: Israel has no choice, and Israel has every right to

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Speaker 5: remove this threat and return our citizens to their home safely.

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Speaker 5: And that's exactly what we're doing.

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Speaker 4: If you're watching on YouTube, you can see that he

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Speaker 4: was addressing a room that was more empty than it

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Speaker 4: was full. We want to get the latest now on

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Speaker 4: this conflict. In turn to an expert on armed conflict,

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Speaker 4: ke Grico, the senior fellow with the Stimpson Centers reimagining

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Speaker 4: US Grand Strategy is with us here on balance of power. Kelly,

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Speaker 4: it's always great to have you. So, I guess my

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Speaker 4: first question is we've been seeing Israel conducting these strikes

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Speaker 4: for well over a week now. Seven hundred people according

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Speaker 4: to Lebanese authorities, have been killed, including some fifty children,

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Speaker 4: and now they hit Hesbulah's main headquarters. Is this not

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Speaker 4: something they should have done first?

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Speaker 6: Well, first of all, thank you for having me. It's

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Speaker 6: quite an escalation, I would say, I think that's probably

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Speaker 6: why it was not struck first. You know, both sides

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Speaker 6: Hesbelah and Israel have been trying to take actions increasingly

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Speaker 6: at gradual escalatory actions, but trying to keep it below

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Speaker 6: the threshold that will result in a full out war.

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Speaker 6: And as they're preceding up this sort of escalation ladder,

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Speaker 6: they're getting closer and closer to that. And I think

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Speaker 6: that that's what this strike is meant to signal, is

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Speaker 6: that Israel is willing to escalate further.

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Speaker 4: Well, so if Israel is willing, it becomes a question

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Speaker 4: of how Hesbelah meets that escalation if it has the

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Speaker 4: desire to do that as well. What kind of response

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Speaker 4: would you expect from this Iranian peroxy when it's headquarters,

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Speaker 4: we're hit and it is escalatory in your view, yes,

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Speaker 4: I mean.

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Speaker 6: I think the challenge here is that there are no

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Speaker 6: good options for Israel right now, and there are no

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Speaker 6: good options for Hesbelah. We see a lot of signs

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Speaker 6: that has Blood is not want to in all out war.

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Speaker 6: It doesn't really serve its groups, its group's interests, and

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Speaker 6: so it's been trying to respond in some way to

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Speaker 6: re established deterrence with Israel, so trying to respond to

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Speaker 6: these in these these hit per top moves, but again

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Speaker 6: without triggering a larger response from Israel. But if it

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Speaker 6: tries to at this point, you know, back down it

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Speaker 6: does It's it's that risk of losing some kind of face,

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Speaker 6: right It's spent years trying to build up this deterrence

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Speaker 6: against Israel, and so backing down is really hard for

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Speaker 6: it because there's going to be concerns that it looks

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Speaker 6: weak and that's really the last thing that it wants.

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Speaker 6: But at the same time, it's losing some of the

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Speaker 6: support of the local population, and so it's really boxed

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Speaker 6: in in its choices. And I think they're going to

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Speaker 6: be trying once again to thread this very thin needle

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Speaker 6: of responding in a forceful way without hopefully without triggering

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Speaker 6: an all out war. But this is a very dangerous dance.

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Speaker 6: In each round, it's getting more and more dangerous.

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Speaker 4: Well, and I wonder, Kelly, if this really is about

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Speaker 4: what has below or at the end of the day,

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Speaker 4: if it's about what Iran wants of Hesbela.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think this is a great question.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 6: One of the things that I think is sort of

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Speaker 6: ironic is that I think Iran in the United States

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Speaker 6: find themselves in similar positions right now in terms of

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Speaker 6: the Middle East, and that Iran does not seem to

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Speaker 6: want an all out war, the United States does not

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Speaker 6: want an all out war. But we're also both trying

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Speaker 6: to support our local partners, you know, We're trying to

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Speaker 6: support Israel, They're trying to support Hesbelah, which is a

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Speaker 6: really important proxy actor for them, and so trying to

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Speaker 6: almost restrain our partners so that we don't end up

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Speaker 6: in this all out war, but while still being seen

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Speaker 6: as supporting that local partner ally. And so there is

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Speaker 6: a role here though for Iran to step in and

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Speaker 6: to try to restrain Hasblah and try to get them

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Speaker 6: to back away from the brink. And I think that's

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Speaker 6: actually going to be critical and helping to calm things down.

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Speaker 4: I just want to quickly mention some breaking news as

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Speaker 4: we've been monitoring the New York courthouse in which New

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Speaker 4: York City Mayor Eric Adams, after yesterday being indicted on

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Speaker 4: federal fraud and bribery charges, is being arraigned. He has

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Speaker 4: pleaded not guilty to those federal charges. Of course, he

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Speaker 4: was facing five charges in total. That is the latest

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Speaker 4: ass expected. He has entered a not guilty plea and

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Speaker 4: will continue to keep you updated on that story, especially

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Speaker 4: if we hear from him.

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Speaker 7: Outside of the courthouse.

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Speaker 4: Kelly, I'd like to move on to a different conflict

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Speaker 4: because also in New York today we saw a meeting

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Speaker 4: take place between Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: It of course comes after Zelenski met with Biden and

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Speaker 4: Harris at the White House yesterday and after. Zelensky and

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Speaker 4: Trump have exchanged some public criticism of each other in

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Speaker 4: recent days while Zelenski has been here in the US now.

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Speaker 4: Trump said after their meeting that he had quote learned

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Speaker 4: a lot, but that he has not changed his stance

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Speaker 4: that negotiations could bring an end to the war. Are

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Speaker 4: we really at that point, Kelly, where this only ends

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Speaker 4: with a negotiated settlement of some.

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 6: Yes, I think we've been at that point for a

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Speaker 6: very long time, that this will ultimately end in some

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Speaker 6: kind of negotiated settlement. I think it's important to remember

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Speaker 6: that the vast majority of wars do end that way.

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Speaker 6: They do not end in outright victory for one side

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Speaker 6: or the other. The real challenge, I think right now

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Speaker 6: is convincing both parties that they would be better off

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Speaker 6: going to a negotiating table and settling the war rather

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Speaker 6: than continuing to pursue it on the battlefield. And right now,

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Speaker 6: certainly the Russians want to continue to pursue on the battlefield.

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Speaker 6: They're making gains in eastern Ukraine. They obviously want to

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Speaker 6: see who's going to win the next presidential election, and

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Speaker 6: the Ukrainians, it seems, are also not ready to negotiate,

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Speaker 6: although that one I think is a little harder to

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Speaker 6: understand because their position is quite difficult. They're very overstretched,

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Speaker 6: particularly with this offensive and Cursk, But I think trying Ultimately,

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Speaker 6: we're going to have to get to the negotiating table,

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Speaker 6: and that's really I think the question we should be

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Speaker 6: asking is what is the plan to get there. That's

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Speaker 6: one that has not been articulated by Ukraine or the

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Speaker 6: Biden administration.

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Speaker 4: Well, in the meantime, Kelly, we know Ukraine has been

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Speaker 4: making asks of the Biden administration to try to strengthen

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Speaker 4: its position, including the desire for them to be able

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Speaker 4: to use long range weapons systems to target to target

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Speaker 4: targets deeper in Russian territory. What actually changes about the

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Speaker 4: state of this conflict if the Biden administration finally relents

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Speaker 4: on that.

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Speaker 6: Yes, so you know, this is part of the so

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Speaker 6: called victory plan that Zelenski came to Deceit or to

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Speaker 6: visit Biden to discuss. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 6: much of a victory plan. It's, as you kind of

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Speaker 6: point out, it's more of a shopping list, and one

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Speaker 6: of those items is long range strike permissions. I think

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Speaker 6: the idea that the Ukrainians have is they'd like to

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Speaker 6: be able to hit airfields, in particular that where the

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Speaker 6: Russians are launching fighter bombers that are carrying these glide

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Speaker 6: bombs that have been used against their poss at the front,

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Speaker 6: So that would be one of the key things. And

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Speaker 6: they'd like to hit infrastructure, probably some energy infrastructure as well.

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Speaker 6: The problem though, I think with this is it might

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Speaker 6: provide some tactical benefits, you know, early on, but very

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Speaker 6: quickly the Russians are going to move these things. Russia

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Speaker 6: is a large country. They'll move them back a couple

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Speaker 6: hundred miles and it won't really impact the battlefield or

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Speaker 6: the course of the war in a very significant way,

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Speaker 6: which I think is why the Biden administration has not

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Speaker 6: provided these permissions, is that it doesn't have a huge

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Speaker 6: impact potentially on the battlefield. But we have a very

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Speaker 6: small supply of these kinds of long range weapons and

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Speaker 6: we need them ourselves, and there are of course these

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Speaker 6: significant escalation risks, so it is.

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Speaker 4: Just quickly here, Kelly. It's in part a defense industrial

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Speaker 4: base issue too.

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Speaker 6: It's a defense industrial based issue, and it is an

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Speaker 6: escalation issue. You know, Putin announced a change to the

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Speaker 6: nuclear policy, essentially saying that any non nuclear country that

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Speaker 6: strikes Russia, if they have assistance from a nuclear armed state,

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Speaker 6: it is considered a joint attack, and that Russia could

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Speaker 6: respond with nuclear weapons. And that's something that we have

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Speaker 6: to still take very seriously. It's not a good sign

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Speaker 6: anytime a country changes its official nuclear policy.

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Speaker 7: All right, Kelly, Always great to have you.

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Speaker 4: Kelly Griico, Senior fellow with the Stimpson Centers Reimagining US

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Speaker 4: Grand Strategy program.

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Speaker 7: Appreciate your time.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.

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Speaker 3: Roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: Then keilely Lines in Washington. Welcome back to Balance of

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Speaker 4: Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio, where we've been keeping

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Speaker 4: an eye on the Middle East today, as Israel says

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Speaker 4: it struck Hesbela's headquarters in Lebanon as it continues its

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Speaker 4: fight against the Iranian proxy. This is something that Israeli

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Speaker 4: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyah, who talked about on the floor

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Speaker 4: at the United Nations General Assembly in New York earlier today,

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Speaker 4: just before we learned about this strike, saying that Israel

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Speaker 4: has no choice but to continue as.

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Speaker 5: Long as Kizbala chooses the path of war. Israel has

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Speaker 5: no choice, and Israel has every right to remove this

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Speaker 5: threat and return our citizens to their home safely. And

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Speaker 5: that's exactly what we're doing.

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Speaker 4: Again, what they are doing appears to be going after

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Speaker 4: Hesbela headquarters, at least that's what they've said. And we've

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Speaker 4: just learned within the last few moments that the Pentagon

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Speaker 4: did not know in advance that Israel was going to

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Speaker 4: conduct this operation, Sabrina saying, a spokesperson at the Pentagon

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Speaker 4: briefing reporters saying that the US had no advance warning

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Speaker 4: of Israel's attack in Lebanon, and that in fact, Defense

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Speaker 4: Secretary of Lloyd Austin was speaking with Israel's Jav Gallant

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Speaker 4: when the attack was already underway. So for more on this,

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Speaker 4: I'm pleased to stay. Joining me here in our Washington,

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Speaker 4: d C studio is Hagar Shamali. She is former formerly

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Speaker 4: of the National Security Council, where she was director for

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Speaker 4: Syria and Lebanon and is now founder and CEO of

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Speaker 4: Greenwich Media's Strategieshigar, Welcome.

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Speaker 3: Back, Kaylie.

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Speaker 1: Good to see you in person.

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Speaker 4: It's great to see you as well, especially when we

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Speaker 4: have news developing like this. Does it surprise you that

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Speaker 4: Israel did not tell the US what it was about

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Speaker 4: to do when it is a strike that largely was

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Speaker 4: seen or is being seen as an escalatory one.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't.

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Speaker 8: First of all, if you look at similar assaults like

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Speaker 8: this or attacks in in Israel's history, they don't always

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Speaker 8: give the US a heads up when they've been targeting

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Speaker 8: terrorist commanders and so on, things like that. They don't

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Speaker 8: often because these are very sensitive operations. Often they have

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Speaker 8: to verify for sure that their target is in fact there,

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Speaker 8: and then sometimes those decisions are made within minutes.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes they take longer, but often minutes. But also on

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Speaker 1: the US.

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Speaker 8: Side, they're worried for a league, and if a league happens,

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Speaker 8: that target moves and they lose the opportunity. They see it,

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Speaker 8: and the US operates so differently. When we targeted in Laden,

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Speaker 8: we certainly didn't give the Pakistani is a heads up

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Speaker 8: that we were going into their territory on top of it,

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Speaker 8: and so that did not surprise me at all.

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Speaker 4: Okay, well, fair enough, I wonder if it surprises you

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Speaker 4: then net Niyahu was saying, we have to keep going.

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Speaker 4: We will continue to do this even in the face

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Speaker 4: of US and other allies pushing for a three week

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Speaker 4: ceasefire with Hezballah.

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Speaker 7: He is saying that Israel has no choice. To what

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Speaker 7: extent is that true?

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Speaker 8: Okay, well, a few things here, So first, his remarks

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Speaker 8: don't surprise me.

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Speaker 1: And part of it.

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Speaker 8: One of the things you know that I really think

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Speaker 8: we need to notice is that over the last few months,

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Speaker 8: in particular, the Israeli government has really been the Natiyahu

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Speaker 8: government has been quite public and very clear on its intentions,

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Speaker 8: and the international community, the United States, Egypt and Cutter,

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Speaker 8: who are mediating a ceasefire, are still pushing for a ceasefire.

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Speaker 1: And that is the noble and right thing to do.

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Speaker 8: We should be pushing both sides to a ceasefire, even

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Speaker 8: if we drag both sides to the table kicking and screaming.

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Speaker 8: But at the end of the day, both sides are

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Speaker 8: also communicating very clearly that they're not ready, that they

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Speaker 8: don't want they want to continue fighting, and even with

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Speaker 8: what's happening in Lebanon now, very quickly the United States

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Speaker 8: put forward sees fibroposal, and just as quickly as they

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Speaker 8: put it down, the Israelis and Hisbella shot it down.

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Speaker 8: And so there is no appetite at the moment on

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Speaker 8: Israel's side when it comes to Lebanon. In particular, they

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Speaker 8: view that the fact that the north of the country

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Speaker 8: is completely empty undermines the integrity of their territory.

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Speaker 1: And the problem with that is.

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Speaker 8: That they genuinely fear that Hisbela is going to do

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Speaker 8: in October seven style incursion, to go in to invade

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Speaker 8: or to compromise that border. And it's also a reflection

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Speaker 8: of the failure of the UN, because the UN is

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Speaker 8: supposed to maintain the blue line between both and maintain

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Speaker 8: that line as disarmed, and they clearly haven't been able

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Speaker 8: to do that. And so that's Israel's view here. But

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Speaker 8: the problem is, while while they're saying, you know, Hisbela,

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Speaker 8: you've been lobbing missiles at us NonStop, and we kept

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Speaker 8: it kind of the secret understanding at a tit for

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Speaker 8: tet level and now we're done, you have to stop.

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Speaker 8: We want to return our citizens to the North and

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Speaker 8: we can't have this land be empty. The problem is

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Speaker 8: is are the assaults they're pursuing now. While it shows

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Speaker 8: that Israel is not afraid of a full scale escalation,

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Speaker 8: it could also it's just going to create another generation

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Speaker 8: of people, and it's going to further undermine what is

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Speaker 8: already a failed state in Lebanon and create a generation

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Speaker 8: of people who are going to run to the arms

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Speaker 8: of terrorism as a method.

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Speaker 1: And that's my concern for Israel's long term security.

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Speaker 8: But I understand why Israel it feels they need to

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Speaker 8: approach Zballah through military action.

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Speaker 7: As well well.

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Speaker 4: And we should point out Lebanese authorities say more than

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Speaker 4: seven hundred people have been killed and strikes just over

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Speaker 4: the course of the last week or so, fifty of

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Speaker 4: them children. It does raise the question, though, Hagar, of

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Speaker 4: what kind of retaliation you would expect from Hesbela, who

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Speaker 4: maybe doesn't have great incentive to escalate this conflict if

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Speaker 4: they don't have to. But also if your headquarters have

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Speaker 4: just been hit, you don't want to be seen as weak.

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Speaker 8: Right yes, they've actually been seen as quite weak over

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Speaker 8: the last few weeks, in particular because the tit for

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Speaker 8: tat that's been going on for the last eleven months

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Speaker 8: between Hesbela and Israel seems to have actually genuinely weakened

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Speaker 8: Hasbella's leadership.

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Speaker 5: For sure.

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Speaker 8: They've targeted apparently five hundred comand their communications, as we've seen,

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Speaker 8: are all compromised and they feel they can't communicate with

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Speaker 8: each other. And you also have weapons depots and so

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Speaker 8: on that have been targeted. That doesn't mean that they

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Speaker 8: don't have more operatives, that they don't have many thousands

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Speaker 8: more operatives, thousands more missiles, and that could cause a

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Speaker 8: great destruction, of course, but we're seeing them struggle. The

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Speaker 8: Iron Dome is intercepting many.

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Speaker 1: Of the missiles.

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Speaker 8: Of course, some of them are hitting. It's still not

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Speaker 8: safe in the north of Israel.

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Speaker 1: But Hisbela is.

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Speaker 8: Showing, in my opinion, a weakness automatically, and it makes

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Speaker 8: me wonder if they're going to try to go try

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Speaker 8: to go back to the status quo because Iran doesn't

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Speaker 8: want to confront Israel directly, they want their proxies to

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Speaker 8: do it.

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Speaker 4: Well, I was just going to ask about the role

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Speaker 4: of Iran in this. Does what Iran rather has Bla

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Speaker 4: be perceived is weak but not actually have this escalating

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Speaker 4: into a wider regional conflict or do they want to

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Speaker 4: have their proxies still be able to fight their fights

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Speaker 4: for them and therefore would be encouraging Hasbela to do

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Speaker 4: what it means to do to showcase strength.

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Speaker 8: Yes, well, so it is absolutely no interest to have

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Speaker 8: its proxies continue to attack Israel, continue to bother Israel

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Speaker 8: and undermine Israel for sure, without Iran being roped in

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Speaker 8: in any way. And we saw that after Israel attack

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Speaker 8: Hamas's leader in Iran is Haniya back over the summer,

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Speaker 8: you saw Iran respond with a lot of bluster and

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Speaker 8: promising to respond.

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Speaker 1: Well, we haven't seen that response, Yett.

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Speaker 8: And it was because ceasefire talks started to become very serious,

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Speaker 8: because a ceasefire ultimately benefits Iran. Iran is weak right now,

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Speaker 8: the regime is weak. Their people don't really want the regime,

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Speaker 8: and so they know there's only so far they can go.

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Speaker 8: And the threat of the US getting involved if Israel

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Speaker 8: is attacked by Iran is a deterrence that serves quite.

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Speaker 1: Well in pushing back on Iran.

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Speaker 8: But that's why they're happy having the Huthis attack, has

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Speaker 8: Bella attack, Hamas attack, and Israel views this it seems

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Speaker 8: as a war to fundamentally change things on the ground,

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Speaker 8: like a nineteen sixty seven war, like a nineteen seventy

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Speaker 8: three war. Not in terms of length, the length they

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Speaker 8: think will be much longer. But this isn't any more

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Speaker 8: more about punishing Hamas defeating Hamas. This seems to be

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Speaker 8: for them more about their existential This this threat to

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Speaker 8: their existence, and that they want to fundamentally change how

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Speaker 8: terrorists are operating on the ground and posing a threat

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Speaker 8: to them.

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Speaker 4: Well, that does make me wonder about Israeli public sentiment

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Speaker 4: because we have seen domestic pressure on Netanyahu, especially as

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Speaker 4: it pertains to Gaza, given the hostages that remain there,

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Speaker 4: especially in the aftermath of the death of the six

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Speaker 4: hostages that were executed by Hamas most recently. I wonder

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Speaker 4: how sentiment factors into the conversation around the North and Lebanon,

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Speaker 4: and if there may be more support domestically for what

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Speaker 4: Israel is doing there then there may be in Gaza

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Speaker 4: at this.

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Speaker 1: Time domestically in israel I mean, yeah, I do believe.

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Speaker 4: There doesn't matter frankly at all to the Natanyahu government.

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Speaker 8: Well, you know what matters to the Natiyahu government or

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Speaker 8: Netiyahu's himself, is that he wants to remain in power,

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Speaker 8: and he knows that if he doesn't he cuts a

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Speaker 8: ceasefire deal, not on his terms or even on his terms,

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Speaker 8: his far right cabinet members who are extreme will could

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Speaker 8: collapse his government and then it will go into an election.

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Speaker 8: He'll lose that election, and then he'll face corruption charges

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Speaker 8: that he's going to that he's going to face at

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Speaker 8: some point inevitably, and so on.

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Speaker 1: There's on that side.

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Speaker 8: Domestically, you do have a very strong push for citizens

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Speaker 8: to return to the North and to feel safe returning

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Speaker 8: to the North. And so I don't see yet. I

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Speaker 8: don't see yet a pushback in Israel. It could change, though,

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Speaker 8: it could shift in Lebanon. In Lebanon, nobody is Nobody

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Speaker 8: wants to invite a war. Nobody who doesn't support Hasbola

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Speaker 8: is excited about a war being invited into the country.

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Speaker 8: But there is a deep understanding that Hesbelah is the

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Speaker 8: one that invited this war. For not Hasbella supporters, meaning

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Speaker 8: Christians and Sunny for the larger part. But that doesn't

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Speaker 8: mean that they also want Israel pursuing these attacks in

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Speaker 8: Lebanon in general, even though they know that Habela is

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Speaker 8: the one launching these missiles in the north.

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Speaker 4: Finally, hagar Is we consider it the domestic pressure on

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Speaker 4: Netanyahu and some of these other domestic pressures within all

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Speaker 4: of these different countries. There are also as great domestic

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Speaker 4: pressure in the US on this administration to get a

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Speaker 4: ceasefire done in Gaza. We've heard from President Biden after

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Speaker 4: announcing he would not seek reelection, one of the things

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Speaker 4: he said he wanted to accomplish before leaving office is

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Speaker 4: not just a ceasefire between Israel and Amas, but peace

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Speaker 4: in the Middle East. It feels like we have gotten

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Speaker 4: significantly farther away from that goal than we've gotten towards it.

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Speaker 4: And I wonder if you think any of what he

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Speaker 4: wants to accomplish is realistically going to get done before

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Speaker 4: he leaves office in January.

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Speaker 1: Well, the short answer is no, I don't think any

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Speaker 1: of it will get done.

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Speaker 8: But unfortunately, when he said the part about the ceasefire,

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Speaker 8: I do think that at that time in the summer

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Speaker 8: that he could believe that.

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Speaker 1: I believed it. I said it on this show.

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Speaker 8: There were a lot of factors that seemed like a

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Speaker 8: ceasefire was near. And I will say in history, in

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Speaker 8: many Israel peace negotiations, you've had US officials that they

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Speaker 8: still say the same thing.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's down to the ten percent.

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Speaker 8: It's down as Secretary Blincoln sent to the last three

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Speaker 8: paragraphs of an eighteen para proposal negotiation, and even with that,

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Speaker 8: many times negotiations have failed over not being able to

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Speaker 8: agree on those that last ten percent. And the ADMINISTRACI

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Speaker 8: itself seems to have itself lost hope in the idea

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Speaker 8: that a ceasefire is achievable by the election.

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Speaker 1: Middle East piece, I don't think is a chieved.

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Speaker 8: I'm so sorry, but I don't think that's achievable for

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Speaker 8: a while, certainly not now, But no think I don't

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Speaker 8: think that even they believe it's achievable at this point.

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Speaker 4: All right, Well, we have just had a headline cross

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Speaker 4: the Bloomberg Terminal that Biden has been briefed on these

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Speaker 4: Bay Route strikes by his national security team. Again, this

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Speaker 4: is after the Pentagon said that the US was not

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Speaker 4: told in advance that these strikes were coming.

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Speaker 7: Hungarre.

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Speaker 4: Great to have you here in studio, especially as we're

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Speaker 4: dealing with news like this. A Garshamali, of course, formerly

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Speaker 4: of the National Security Council, now founder and CEO of

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Speaker 4: Greenwich Media Strategies.

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Speaker 7: Enjoy the rest of your time in Washington.

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Speaker 4: Appreciate you being here on balance of power and especially

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Speaker 4: the conversation around the proxies of Iran and Iran itself.

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Speaker 4: We're going to continue talking about Iran in our next conversation.

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Speaker 4: Is The US Justice Department today unveiled charge it's against

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Speaker 4: a number of Iranian operatives for allegedly carrying out the

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Speaker 4: Iranian hack on Donald Trump's twenty twenty four presidential campaign

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Speaker 4: earlier this year. It claims these individuals gained access to

440
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,959
Speaker 4: internal documents of people working on the campaign, then shared

441
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 4: that with journalists and officials working for what was then

442
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 4: the Biden campaign. We're going to have more on this

443
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 4: in an exclusive conversation coming up in just a moment

444
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 4: with Lisa Monico. She is the Deputy Attorney General of

445
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 4: the United States, So stick with us for that. We'll

446
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,440
Speaker 4: have more ahead here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

447
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

448
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emocarplay and then

449
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 2: froud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand

450
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

451
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 4: This is Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio,

452
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 4: where we are about to have a very important conversation

453
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 4: as we are just weeks away from the twenty twenty

454
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 4: five or presidential election. The Department of Justice this afternoon

455
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 4: just announced new charges against multiple people for allegedly carrying

456
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 4: out an Iranian backed operation to hack the campaign of

457
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 4: Donald Trump. That hacker, remember, was first confirmed by the

458
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 4: campaign last month. Security officials said Iron had sent the

459
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 4: stolen material to people linked to what was then the

460
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 4: Biden reelection campaign, journalists as well, And we want to

461
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 4: have more on this in the wider efforts of foreign

462
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 4: actors to interfere in the US election, and turn for

463
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 4: an exclusive interview to the US Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monico,

464
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,679
Speaker 4: who is joining us now. Ma'am, thank you so much

465
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 4: for being with us here on Bloombery. This is incredibly

466
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 4: important conversation. If we could begin with just the charges

467
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 4: that were unveiled today in these specific actors who have

468
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 4: now been indicted, What do you know about the intentions

469
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 4: of them? Is this part of a wider effort Aroan

470
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 4: is using to turn the tide against Donald Trump in

471
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 4: this election.

472
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,399
Speaker 9: Good afternoon, Kley, and thanks very much for having me.

473
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,160
Speaker 9: What we've announced today are charges against three Iranian hackers

474
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 9: who are engaging in a malign foreign influence campaign. The

475
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 9: charges we have laid out today and announced today lay

476
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 9: out a year's long hacking campaign targeting current and former

477
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 9: government officials, targeting journalists, and most recently, targeting US political campaigns.

478
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:33,640
Speaker 9: As you indicated, these charges include discussion and laying out

479
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 9: of a malicious cyber activity that the intelligence community in

480
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 9: the FBI has previously referenced. These efforts included a malicious

481
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 9: Iranian cyber actors sending unsolicited emails to individuals then associated

482
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 9: with the campaign of President Biden, and those emails contained

483
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 9: stolen excerpts excerpts of stolen non public material from the

484
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:04,119
Speaker 9: Trump campaign. I should point out, Kayley, that there's no

485
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 9: indication that the recipients replied to those emails. To your

486
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 9: question about intent, the hackers made clear in their very

487
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 9: own words, and we've laid this out in the charging

488
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,679
Speaker 9: document we unsealed today, and that intent is to undermine

489
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 9: the campaign of former President Trump in advance of the election.

490
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 4: And I wonder, ma'am, how you see these efforts differing

491
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 4: or working in tandem with the efforts of other adversaries,

492
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 4: be it Russia or China for example. Are they working

493
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 4: in concert or are they all working in different ways

494
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 4: with similar motives.

495
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 9: Well, look, this is part of the charges we announced today,

496
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:49,679
Speaker 9: and the broader aggressive activity that we are seeing from Iran,

497
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 9: from Russia, from China are part of a very complex,

498
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 9: diverse and aggressive foreign malign influence effort that we are

499
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 9: seeing from our adversaries in this election cycle. So the

500
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 9: charges we've announced today, I think are consistent with what

501
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,479
Speaker 9: we have been seeing and warning about. The intelligence community

502
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 9: has been quite clear over the last weeks and months

503
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 9: about what we are seeing in the way of foreign

504
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 9: malign influence. You have seen the Justice Department take aggressive

505
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 9: action in the last several weeks. We unveiled the operations

506
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 9: of Russian actors. In the last couple of weeks, we

507
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 9: exposed Russian foreign malign influence campaigns, again all directed at

508
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 9: and an effort to sow discord, to so mistrust, and

509
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 9: to undermine our confidence in our election process.

510
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 4: Well, of course, what you're alluding to the seizure of

511
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 4: dozens of domains that the DOJS alleging have been propagating

512
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 4: Russian backed efforts to spread foreign malign influence, including around

513
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,479
Speaker 4: the presidential election. I believe there was some thirty two

514
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 4: of those. Man, how far does that web go and

515
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 4: what else is Russia specifically doing? Are you seeing it

516
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:06,959
Speaker 4: having an impact?

517
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 9: That's exactly right, kaylie. What we exposed a few weeks

518
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 9: ago were Putin directed efforts using a Russian state operated

519
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 9: media arm RT to spread Russian propaganda, to spread pro

520
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 9: Russian narratives, using unwitting American commentators to do so, to

521
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 9: funnel millions of dollars to a US company in order

522
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 9: to do that, And we also exposed the work of

523
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 9: a proxy company again Putin Directed, called the Social Design Agency,

524
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 9: which a proxy company used by Russia to push out

525
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 9: AI generated content, again pushing out Russian propaganda targeting US

526
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 9: voters and specific voter demographics, all in an effort to

527
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 9: influence the election, to undermine confidence in our election process,

528
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 9: to undermine also from the Russi perspective to undermine our

529
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 9: support for Ukraine. So this is part of a broader

530
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 9: scheme and efforts, very aggressive efforts by Russian foreign malign actors.

531
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 4: Again, we're in conversation here with the US Deputy Attorney

532
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 4: General Lisa Monaco on Bloomberg Television and Radio. Obviously, ma'am,

533
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,360
Speaker 4: there are a number of channels and ways in which

534
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 4: miss and disinformation that could be aimed at influencing voters

535
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 4: can circulate in the modern age, including on social media,

536
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 4: on platforms for example like X. Is the DJ working

537
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 4: with X and elon Musk to try to tamp down

538
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 4: on that missed and disinformation. And if you're trying, are

539
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 4: you seeing cooperation on the other side.

540
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 9: Well, look, what we're doing is doing everything we can

541
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 9: to investigate, to expose, and to disrupt these activities. When

542
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 9: we see foreign malign influence activity on platforms across the

543
00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 9: United States, we are taking that information, using that information,

544
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 9: and sharing it with platforms including X. We are very

545
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 9: focused on providing social media platforms information, actionable information in

546
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 9: real time so that they can take action under their

547
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 9: own discretion, making their own judgments consistent with the first Amendment.

548
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 9: We are providing them information and then they are taking

549
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 9: action at their own discretion to address that activity that

550
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 9: we point out to them. So we will continue to

551
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,159
Speaker 9: do that. Our focus is on making sure we are

552
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 9: exposing this activity so that Americans can be discerning consumers,

553
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 9: because kayleie, American voters should be deciding our election, not

554
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 9: our foreign adversaries.

555
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 4: Well, on that point, ma'am, it's one thing to put

556
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 4: out information, be it disor missinformation, aimed at influencing American votes.

557
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 4: It's another thing entirely to actually try to disrupt or

558
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 4: tamper with the electoral process itself. To what extent is

559
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 4: the Department of Justice concerned about potential cybery, even physical

560
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 4: disruptions to the election process, be it on election Day

561
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 4: in November or in the early voting leading up to it.

562
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 9: So two things I would say on this, Kaylee. One,

563
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 9: we see our foreign adversaries trying to put into their

564
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 9: malign influence campaigns disinformation and misinformation about the vulnerability of

565
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 9: our voting systems. Our voting systems are quite resilient, and

566
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 9: they are quite diffuse, and they are by and large

567
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 9: not connected and almost a majority not connected to the Internet.

568
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 9: My colleagues at SISA over at DHS have the lead

569
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 9: for the federal government in working to protect our critical

570
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 9: infrastructure and importantly working with state and local officials to

571
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 9: protect that infrastructure, that voting infrastructure. Remember, the voting in

572
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:03,239
Speaker 9: this country is control, owned, operated, and administered all at

573
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 9: the state and local level. So our job in the

574
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 9: federal government, working across the Justice Department, the Department of

575
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 9: Homeland Security, is to assist our state and local partners

576
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 9: in that effort. We are sharing information about efforts to

577
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 9: influence those that electoral process, but the election systems and

578
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 9: the infrastructure themselves are very diffuse and very diffuse across

579
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 9: the state and local jurisdictions and not connected to the Internet,

580
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 9: so people should be on the lookout for misinformation about.

581
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 4: That, Madam, Deputy Attorney General. I'd like to turn to

582
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 4: another issue is yesterday the DOJ also charged to Russian

583
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 4: nationals in a crypto laundering scheme. What can you tell

584
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 4: us about how pervasive these potential laundering networks are, what

585
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 4: their aims are, and how the DOJ is working in

586
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 4: concert with other agencies like say the SA and cracking

587
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 4: down in this regard.

588
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 9: So you're quite right, Kelly. We took action yesterday to

589
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 9: disrupt a number of malicious cyber criminals and to disrupt

590
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 9: the criminal ecosystem that fuels their activity to Russian nationals,

591
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 9: and also we disrupted an illicit crypto exchange called cryptics.

592
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 9: This is part of our overall effort to disrupt wherever

593
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 9: we can, the criminal ecosystem that is fueling everything from

594
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 9: ransomware to darknet, drug trafficking to money laundering. And it

595
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 9: was money laundering that was really at issue here. These

596
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 9: are two Russian nationals engaged in a massive money laundering

597
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 9: schemes that were fueling criminal activity across a whole spectrum

598
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 9: of areas. As I said, ransomware and drug trafficking. What

599
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 9: we are seeing is crypto, for instance, is the lifeblood

600
00:31:56,000 --> 00:32:00,040
Speaker 9: of a lot of this illicit activity, including ransomware. It

601
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 9: may be advertised as borderless, but what we are showing,

602
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 9: including with yesterday's charges that we brought, is that we

603
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 9: will follow it wherever it goes, including to the darkest corners,

604
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 9: and hold individuals to account.

605
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 4: Finally, ma'am, while we have you, I won't ask you

606
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 4: to comment directly on the indictment of Eric Adams, but

607
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 4: I do have a wider question for you about the

608
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 4: perception and institutional trust in the Department of Justice. After

609
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 4: that indictment came down, we heard from Donald Trump calling

610
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 4: the Justice Department quote dirty players. I don't have to

611
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 4: tell you he's argued consistently that the DOJ is being

612
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 4: weaponized against him. Many of his supporters believe that largely

613
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 4: to be true. How much harder is it for you

614
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 4: to do your work when your credibility is being questioned

615
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 4: by people at the highest levels of American politics.

616
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 9: I'm not going to comment on those attacks, Kayley, except

617
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 9: to say that the men and women of the Justice

618
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 9: Department are doing their job every single day, without fear

619
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 9: or favor, without regard to any political affiliation, following the

620
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 9: facts wherever they lead. And yesterday's charges announced by the

621
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 9: Southern District of New York I think reflect exactly that principle.

622
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 4: All right, we will leave it on that note. We

623
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 4: sincerely appreciate your time US Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco

624
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 4: for an exclusive interview here on Bloomberg TV and radio.

625
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

626
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.

627
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 3: Roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App.

628
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

629
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

630
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 4: I've got some figures for you as well, fresh data

631
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 4: out of the swing states thanks to Bloomberg's new polling

632
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 4: with Morning consult that finds Kamala Harris up three points

633
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 4: against Donald Trump across the seven battlegrounds that could ultimately

634
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 4: decide this election. To run you through the headline figure,

635
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 4: She's up seven percentage points in Nevada.

636
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 7: That is her widest lead.

637
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 4: She leads by five in Pennsylvania, three in Arizona, Michigan,

638
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 4: and Wisconsin. Up by two points in North Carolina. The

639
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 4: only state in which she and Donald Trump are tied.

640
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 7: Is in Georgia.

641
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 4: But all of these figures are within the poll's margin

642
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 4: of error. It's important to note. But what's also important

643
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 4: to note is that these figures also suggest that the

644
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 4: improvement she's seeing in the polls is coming simultaneously with

645
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 4: improvement on the issue of the economy. So for more,

646
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,760
Speaker 4: let's turn to Elioakley. He is Morning consults Us politics

647
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 4: analysts joining me here on Bloomberg TV and Radio, as

648
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,760
Speaker 4: he does every month when this poll comes out. Always

649
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 4: good to see you, Eli. Let's just start with the

650
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 4: economy overall first, because this data is striking for us

651
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 4: here at Bloomberg. Trump only up four percentage points on

652
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 4: her on the economy overall, and when likely voters were

653
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 4: asked who they trust more to handle the cost of

654
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 4: everyday goods, it's a virtual tie forty seven Trump forty

655
00:34:59,280 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 4: six Harris.

656
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 10: What has changed here, Well, Kamala Harris is getting good

657
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 10: marks on just about everything we're testing right now, and

658
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 10: that's translating to how voters are perceiving her on the

659
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 10: issues we saw even improvements one she's like immigration. But

660
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 10: look when you dive into the economic issues, I mean,

661
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 10: the cost of living, healthcare, and housing are the top

662
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 10: three concerns for likely voters across the swing state map,

663
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 10: and on all those issues she is making games. She

664
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 10: already had an advantage on healthcare, she's picked up an

665
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 10: advantage on housing, and she's tied with Trump on the

666
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 10: issue of costs. Voters are taking a look at her.

667
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 10: It seems that it's one of her economic messaging is

668
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 10: breaking through to them and that's translating it to a

669
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,720
Speaker 10: big growth in trust across a lot of these states.

670
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 4: Well, so let's think about how this breaks down state

671
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 4: by state, because obviously she's looking at varying degrees of

672
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 4: leads here or lack thereof in Georgia, for example, where

673
00:35:57,719 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 4: she's tied.

674
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 7: Is there a relationship between how.

675
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 4: Voters in these states are viewing the economy and how

676
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 4: well she is performing, or is it other issues depending

677
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 4: on which state we're looking at.

678
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 10: I mean, this electorate is so parison at this point.

679
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 10: I think a lot of this is coming down to

680
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:17,799
Speaker 10: the kinds of voters who say they're likely to vote

681
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 10: in the members election. I think that we're seeing in

682
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 10: some of these other states more enthusiasm among Democratic voters.

683
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 10: I think that in Georgia perhaps it's a little less

684
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 10: among Democrats.

685
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 3: You know.

686
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 10: That's Donald Trump's big play here in the next few

687
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:37,760
Speaker 10: weeks is whether he can change this likely voter sample

688
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 10: that we're getting right now that has been as political

689
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 10: magic when he has won elections, is bringing in voters

690
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 10: who do not say today that they're likely to vote

691
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 10: right now. Among these people who are excited about showing

692
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 10: up at the polls, he is not performing that great

693
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 10: across the Swing States. On the economy in particular, we

694
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 10: have seen a bit of an improvement in how voters

695
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 10: are perceiving their personal situation the country's situation. That is

696
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 10: something that I think, if it continues, seems to be

697
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 10: something that would benefit Kamala Harris. But look, it's gonna

698
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 10: be along a few weeks as Donald Trump tries to

699
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 10: try to win back some of these folks.

700
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I wonder how these results may have been

701
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 4: changed by a FED rate cut as well or the

702
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,399
Speaker 4: expectation that it was happening. We know that borrowing costs

703
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 4: could have a big deal, a big impact into terms

704
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 4: of how people are thinking about their own balance sheets,

705
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 4: in the cost of buying a home or what have you, Right, Eli, Yeah.

706
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 10: I mean is a big deal. A lot of voters,

707
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 10: about half of voters I think, said that that might

708
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 10: have a positive impact on the economy. You know, Kamala

709
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 10: Harris has been out front on this housing issue in

710
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 10: a way that President Biden really wasn't. I think voters,

711
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 10: particularly in Nevada, are thirsty for answers on this issue

712
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 10: as they face housing costs there. She's taken plans to

713
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,560
Speaker 10: the electric to deal with this issue in a way

714
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 10: Donald Trump hadn't, and it appears that's resonating. She's doing

715
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 10: very well in Nevada in a way Biden wasn't. Donald

716
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 10: Trump is not competitive there currently, and some of this

717
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 10: stuff seems to be breaking through to folks.

718
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 4: I also want to talk about the issue of immigration,

719
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 4: because that's the one she's focused on today. She will

720
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 4: be this afternoon traveling to Arizona making a trip to

721
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 4: the border, which of course Republicans have been critical of

722
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 4: her not doing during her time as candidate and vice

723
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 4: president as frequently as they believe that she should. On immigration,

724
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 4: that does still appear to be a weakness for her

725
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 4: in these states. Eliah fourteen percent lead enjoyed by Donald

726
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 4: Trump on that issue, and it is a wide margin

727
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 4: as well in states like Arizona and Nevada.

728
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 3: Yeah.

729
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 10: I mean since Joe Biden took office, even back when

730
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 10: he was very popular at the beginning of his term,

731
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 10: this immigration issue has weighed on him and the Democratic

732
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 10: Party overall. I think what Kama Harris is trying to

733
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:01,280
Speaker 10: do today is to go on the offense against Donald

734
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 10: Trump and highlight the fact that he helped kill a

735
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 10: bipartisan immigration bill in Congress this year. You know, a

736
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 10: lot of things that happen on Capitol Hill don't break

737
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 10: through to the electorate the big way, and so it's

738
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 10: incumbent on her to try to raise that to voters.

739
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 10: I don't know how trusted she is on that issue

740
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 10: right now, just given the postured voters half towards the

741
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 10: Democratic Party. But you know, addressing the issue taking a

742
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,279
Speaker 10: head on is something that could break through and help

743
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 10: her with some of these remaining undecided voters.

744
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 4: Finally, Eli, as we consider the sun Belt states, the

745
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 4: border states are border rejacent states like Arizona or one thing.

746
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,799
Speaker 4: Then there's states like North Carolina, which have had their

747
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 4: own kind of disrupted, disruptive events, if you will. Over

748
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 4: the course of the last several weeks. When it comes

749
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,919
Speaker 4: to the Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who of course

750
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 4: was endorsed by Donald Trump, has faced allegations of making

751
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 4: some pretty disturbing messages on a number of peorn platforms.

752
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 4: For example, have we started to see that show up

753
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 4: in the data? Do you think that has any role

754
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 4: in the two point advantage Harris is currently enjoying in

755
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 4: that state.

756
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 10: I don't think we saw much change month over month.

757
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 10: I mean, this survey was conducted just after some of

758
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 10: these revelations about Bark Robinson came down. In our surveys

759
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 10: we've seen at hereporning Console he was already trailing Jeff

760
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 10: Stein by double digits in that state. He was underperforming

761
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 10: Donald Trump really really significantly. The voters of North Carolina

762
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 10: do not seem that interested in what he has to

763
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,360
Speaker 10: offer them. The question will be the amount of energy

764
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 10: that folks put into that state. Now though, is this

765
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 10: our Republican's going to write this off a bit? They

766
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 10: probably shouldn't. It's a very important state for their chances.

767
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 10: But you know, democrats in market Stein has a great

768
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 10: opportunity here to try to lift up Kamala Harris with

769
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 10: a campaign that's going to have a lot of energy

770
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 10: among Democrats who see victory coming up in no effort.

771
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 4: All right, Eli Yoakley, always great to have you morning

772
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 4: consult at US Politics Analyst.

773
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 7: Thank you very much for joining me. Now we want

774
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:08,840
Speaker 7: to turn back on.

775
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 4: These poll results to our signature political panel Rick Davis

776
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 4: Stone Court Capital partner and Republican strategist alongside Jeanie Shanzeno,

777
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 4: Senior Democracy fellow at the Center for the Study of

778
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 4: the Presidency and Congress, and democratic strategists, both of them

779
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, I'd like to begin with you,

780
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 4: just given your deep knowledge of the state of Arizona.

781
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 4: She is obviously going there today. This poll shows her

782
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 4: leading Trump by three points within the margin of error.

783
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 4: She's specifically going there to address the issue that she

784
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 4: perhaps is weakest on if our polls are to be believed, immigration.

785
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 4: How capable of moving the needle on this issue will

786
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 4: she be if she goes and goes to the border.

787
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 4: Does it actually make a difference with forty days to

788
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 4: go until the election, Well, I definitely think.

789
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:59,879
Speaker 11: It makes a difference. This is the biggest hesitation about

790
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris that voters have, especially in the Sun Belt states,

791
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 11: and doesn't rank as big an issue in the blue

792
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:11,320
Speaker 11: Wall states. But if you want to compete in Georgia,

793
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 11: in Arizona, and Nevada in North Carolina, you have to

794
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 11: have something to say about immigration. And she's been relatively quiet.

795
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:26,240
Speaker 11: I mean, she has been going heavy on economic issues

796
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 11: and then obviously starting to show in the pulling douta

797
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 11: that you just discussed. But this is a chance for

798
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 11: her to change the script a little bit, and she's

799
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 11: got something to say. I mean, Donald Trump killed a

800
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 11: bill that would have been a significant change in border

801
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 11: policy for the first time in decades, that was supported

802
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 11: actively by the Biden Harris administration. So that'll be your

803
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 11: talking point today. And if she can create some comfort

804
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 11: that she isn't the raging liberal with open borders that

805
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 11: Donald Trump has painted her as, then I think she

806
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 11: will will satisfy some of the questions that undecided voters

807
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 11: might have about her. And she's not only showing up

808
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 11: at the border, but she's also posting up a new

809
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 11: border ad that will help echo whatever happens today on

810
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:12,320
Speaker 11: the border.

811
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 4: So Jennie, I'd love for you to weigh in on

812
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 4: this as well. Knowing that Harris at the same time,

813
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 4: she's tried to showcase that she has been a prosecutor.

814
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 4: She repeatedly says that she has prosecuted transnational criminal organizations

815
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 4: and targeted the flow of illegal substances and activity over

816
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 4: the border. She has also talked about, and we saw

817
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,879
Speaker 4: her do this in an interview on MSNBC earlier this week,

818
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,800
Speaker 4: how she also supports creating more legal pathways to immigration.

819
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 4: What is the appropriate balance for her here if she

820
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 4: does want to draw in these independent voters but also

821
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,280
Speaker 4: not alienate certain portions of her party.

822
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 12: Yeah, it's a tough app for her to walk, But

823
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,279
Speaker 12: I think you used exactly the right word, Kaylee, and

824
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:57,720
Speaker 12: that is prosecutor. She has today got to prosecute Donald

825
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 12: Trump for killing the bill and leaving us in the

826
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 12: position where we are.

827
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 5: Now.

828
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 12: That's what she's got to say. We had a bill

829
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 12: we were pushing forward for change. It was bipartisan, The

830
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 12: Wall Street Journal, conservatives all described it as the toughest

831
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 12: border security bill, and yet you killed it solely so

832
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 12: you could run for president and have a chance of

833
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,839
Speaker 12: being elected. She's got to prosecute that case. And then

834
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 12: she's got to make the case that this is part

835
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 12: of her economic security care economy, that she is both

836
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 12: tough on the border, tough on security, and she also

837
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 12: recognizes that we have a society in which immigrants and

838
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 12: migrants have played a critical role in making us who

839
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:44,879
Speaker 12: we are today, and we should be proud of them

840
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:47,839
Speaker 12: and welcome them when they come here legally. And she's

841
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 12: going to ensure that happens, So she has a lot

842
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,919
Speaker 12: to say today. I think she should have been doing

843
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:55,760
Speaker 12: this earlier, but it's important she's doing it now because,

844
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,399
Speaker 12: as you were just mentioning, the Morning Council poll, all

845
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 12: poll show she's behind on Donald Trump when it comes

846
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 12: to this issue of the border in the minds of

847
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 12: many voters.

848
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 4: But is gaining ground on him when it comes to

849
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 4: the economy, which you were just alluding to, Genie and

850
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 4: Rick also mentioned. So I guess to some extent that

851
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,439
Speaker 4: does show us that her messaging and the policy idea

852
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 4: she has put forward are resonating. I just wonder, Genie,

853
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 4: if you think we're starting to reach the point in

854
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 4: the election cycle where economic feeling is going to be

855
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 4: to a large degree already banked in, even if we

856
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 4: have seen it change over the course of the last

857
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:36,280
Speaker 4: several months since Joe Biden was the candidate to now Harris,

858
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 4: things can only move so much from here, I would imagine, right.

859
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 12: That's true, and I think, you know, Harris has done

860
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 12: a good job, But I also think two other factors

861
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 12: are important. Number one, the numbers and what has happened economically.

862
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 12: I've worked in her favor. Consumer sentiment out that you

863
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:56,720
Speaker 12: were just talking about. That's to her favor. The Fed's

864
00:45:56,760 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 12: decision September eighteenth, that's to her favor. So she's benefiting

865
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 12: from a stronger economic numbers that people are feeling and

866
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 12: seeing on the ground. And she's also benefiting, quite frankly,

867
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 12: from the fact that Donald Trump sam simply seems not

868
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 12: to be able to prosecute the case against her. He

869
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 12: is out hawking commemorative coins when he should be making

870
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:21,879
Speaker 12: the case that she and Joe Biden have been bad

871
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 12: for the economy and bad for security. So I think

872
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 12: she's benefiting from those two things almost as much as

873
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 12: she has from her ability to sell her plan and

874
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 12: this care economy, and all of those things have allowed

875
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 12: her to decrease the amount by which voters see him

876
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 12: as good for the economy. Now, let's not forget voters

877
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 12: have something to lose. She's got to keep saying, do

878
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 12: you want to take somebody who's threatening sixty percent tariffs,

879
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 12: that's inflationary, that hurts our jobs. Don't let him do that,

880
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:54,799
Speaker 12: and don't let him risk what we've done, as we've

881
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 12: come so far and people don't want to risk that.

882
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,399
Speaker 12: And so that's to her benefit. As well.

883
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:02,800
Speaker 4: So, Rick, what do you do if you're Donald Trump?

884
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 4: Do you double down on economic attacks to try to

885
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,359
Speaker 4: stem the tide of her progress on this issue? Where

886
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 4: do you pivot to other areas of weakness more aggressively,

887
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 4: like the border or something else.

888
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 11: Well, I would remind everybody that it was September seventeenth

889
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 11: in two thousand and eight, in the middle of a

890
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 11: winning campaign that John McCain was running against Barack Obama

891
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,440
Speaker 11: that changed the entire world's economic point of view when

892
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 11: Lehman Brothers failed and completely upset the campaign. So I

893
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 11: would not say it's too late for economics to play

894
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 11: a significant role in this campaign, And unfortunately for Donald Trump,

895
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:39,280
Speaker 11: it seems to be headed in the opposite direction. Record

896
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 11: that Wall Street has had this week. These things add

897
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 11: to the flavor of voters' views about Kamala Harrison her economy.

898
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 11: It's not just the speeches and the ads that she's running.

899
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 11: She has an environmental picture that seems to be helping her.

900
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:00,359
Speaker 11: That being said, the biggest hurdle I think that Donald

901
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:02,399
Speaker 11: Trump has right now as he's getting out spent four

902
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 11: to one on TV in the targeted swing states. So

903
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 11: when she says something four times more people are hearing

904
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 11: it than when Donald Trump says it. And we know

905
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 11: Donald Trump is a master of earned media. But unless

906
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 11: he can stay disciplined on the messages that he is

907
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,600
Speaker 11: talking about, he's going to get out shouted on all

908
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:24,960
Speaker 11: these issues by the Harris campaign. And so I know

909
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:28,479
Speaker 11: Republicans are particularly concerned about the fact that Donald Trump

910
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 11: is getting drowned out. And the facts are that he

911
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 11: is running out of time to prosecute this attack on

912
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:41,320
Speaker 11: Kamala Harris, whether it is on immigration or the economy

913
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:44,439
Speaker 11: or any other issue that is current in the news today.

914
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:47,959
Speaker 11: Donald Trump spent the whole day today getting basically news

915
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 11: around meeting with Zelensky on Ukraine, not an issue that

916
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 11: is going to be particularly helpful to him. It's stunning

917
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:57,400
Speaker 11: to see Kamala Harris actually up by a point in

918
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:01,680
Speaker 11: our pool on Commander in Chief ratings. So right now

919
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 11: is a bad cycle for Donald Trump.

920
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 4: All right, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino, our signature political panel.

921
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 7: Thank you so much for joining me.

922
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

923
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 10: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

924
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:23,440
Speaker 10: or wherever you get your podcasts, and

925
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 11: You can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

926
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:28,759
Speaker 11: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.