1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time for a 7 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,319 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion right now, where you're joined by Admiral Jane 8 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: Stavita's calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He's retired US Navy admiral 9 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 1: and former military commander of NATA, and we have to 10 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: talk about the latest issue coming out, a very disturbing 11 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: issue where reports that Russia is providing bounties to Taliban 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: fighters for American soldiers. And there's absolutely no one better 13 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: to speak to this issue than Admiral Stavrida's. Admiral, thank 14 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. We really appreciate you 15 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: taking the time here. Just give us your sense of 16 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: what is going on with this story here. Do you 17 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: give it credence and if so, what should the response be. Unfortunately, 18 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: I do give it credence, and of course i'm I'm 19 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: very close to this issue, having commanded that mission in 20 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: Afghanistan for four years. As you know, Paul, it's a 21 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: NATO mission, and over that period of time we saw 22 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: Russia attempt to disrupt the US and NATO activities. There 23 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: nothing as egregious or as shocking as offering bounties on 24 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: the heads of individual US soldiers. So this is behavior 25 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 1: that as well beyond the pale. And I will tell 26 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: you this, if that had occurred on my watch as 27 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: afore star officer, if I saw that intelligence, I would 28 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,399 Speaker 1: have immediately sent a flare up to my boss, the 29 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense at the time, Robert Gates, and I 30 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: assure you he would have been on the phone to 31 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: the President in one minute saying we are seeing this. 32 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: This demands the strongest possible response. And it's inexplicable to 33 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: me why we have not responded to this uh serious 34 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: act of a real hostility from the Russian Federation. So, Admiral, 35 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: is there any explanation for why we haven't. Is it possible, 36 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 1: for example, that the President and Vice President were not 37 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: told about it, or were not told sufficiently urgently enough 38 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: for them to take it seriously. It's hard to believe that. Um. Now, 39 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: let's be blunt about it. The president is not an 40 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,839 Speaker 1: avid consumer of intelligence. He's not a deep reader by 41 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: all accounts. Uh, He's sort of sporadic in his attention 42 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: to these briefs. I suppose it's conceivable that it was 43 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: presented to him, and I don't see anybody denying that 44 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 1: it was presented to him, at least in the written 45 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: form of the Presidential Daily brief. Um, it's conceivable. I 46 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: suppose that he didn't focus on it, but I just 47 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 1: can't imagine a president the United States being told that 48 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 1: our troops were being effectively have a bull's eye painted 49 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: on them and would not respond in the very strongest 50 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: terms possible if it was not given to him. I 51 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: think there are some hard questions to be asked about 52 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: the intelligence community why they did not drive it directly 53 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: at the president. That's why I'm I'm pleased to see 54 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: Vonnie that the Congress is getting involved. We need to 55 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: know the facts. When was it presented, If it was presented, 56 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 1: what was the president's response, Why have we done nothing 57 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 1: to date? Those are good questions for oversight from the Congress. 58 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: I think we'll see that in the next few days. 59 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: So ad. We're starting to see more and more news 60 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: of this UM and columns like the one you you 61 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: wrote today about this issue. It's becoming much more apparent 62 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: that people are paying attention to it. What do you 63 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: believe should be an appropriate response here by the United States, 64 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: if in fact there will be one, Yeah, Paul, if 65 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 1: these reports are true, and I think we're going to 66 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 1: find that they are. This thing has all the finger 67 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: prints of the g r U, which is the very shadowy, 68 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: darkest portion of the Russian intelligence network. And of course 69 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 1: Russia is dominated by Vladimir Putin a form of KGB spymaster. 70 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: So what we ought to say to ourselves is what 71 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: comes next? What do we do next? I would I 72 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: would basket our response as follows. Diplomatically, we should expel 73 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: the Russian ambassador if this is true, UM, they will 74 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: probably expel the US ambassador, but we need to send 75 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:38,720 Speaker 1: the strongest diplomatic signal we can. Secondly, on the military side, 76 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 1: we had to cease all talk of withdrawing ten thousand 77 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: troops from Europe. You may have seen those reports just 78 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: a few weeks ago. That would be a big mistake. 79 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: We have to more aggressively operate our ships up in 80 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 1: the Black Sea, for example, demonstrating militarily or displeasure with this, 81 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,479 Speaker 1: and economically, we ought to look at another round of sanctions, 82 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: and I think it's probably time to look at personal 83 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: sanctions applied to Vladimir Putin, Sergei Labrov, the Minister of 84 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 1: Foreign Affairs, Schweigen, the Minister of Defense UM. Any of 85 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: them almost certainly would have been aware of this and 86 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:17,119 Speaker 1: continenced it, And I think that we need to send 87 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: the strongest possible signal that it's unacceptable behavior. Finally, we 88 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: are to be circling our allies together, uh In. While 89 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 1: we are to protect sources and methods of this intelligence Baul, 90 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,479 Speaker 1: we need to publicly say what we know so that 91 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: our allies can join us in responding to this behavior. Yeah, 92 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: I mean, let's be clear. This is intelligence gathered in 93 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 1: twenty that's this year, and it was drived in part 94 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: from debriefings of captured Taliban militants, and officials are telling 95 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: the a P as well that disintelligence and these operatives 96 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 1: were gathered from opposite ends of the country and from 97 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 1: separate tribes. So it does seem like it's not just 98 00:05:55,960 --> 00:06:01,359 Speaker 1: you know, one potential you know mischievous Halivan operative telling 99 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 1: a lie. There was definitely at least more than one 100 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 1: instance of this, and in different places. If that's the case, 101 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 1: then Admiral, I mean post election, is there any you know, 102 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 1: any justice for for the American people and for people 103 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: who are serving, you know, for the United States South 104 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 1: America if this had been the case during a previous presidency. Indeed, Um, bonnie, 105 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: and you put your finger on an important point here 106 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:29,919 Speaker 1: that is not getting a lot of discussion, which is, 107 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 1: what does this due to the peace process in Afghanistan? 108 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,640 Speaker 1: And what does this tell us about the Taliban with 109 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 1: whom we are negotiating a peace agreement trying to reduce 110 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: the troops strength there. Even further, Um, does this tell 111 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 1: us that we can trust the Taliban? I don't think so. 112 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 1: And in fact, one of the tippers in the intelligence 113 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 1: that's been at least reported in the press is half 114 00:06:54,960 --> 00:07:00,080 Speaker 1: a million dollars in US cash. So all of this 115 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:04,039 Speaker 1: needs to be examined closely in the context of what's 116 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: happening in Afghanistan and reliability at the Taliban. And to 117 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: your last point, Um, in particular, we owe an explanation 118 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: to the families of those who may have been killed 119 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: in response to this bounty program. And there are some 120 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: reports that UH circle in on a couple of incidents 121 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: with improvised explosive devices that killed servicemen that may have 122 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: been part of this bounty program. That's real blood on 123 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: Russian hands as well as Taliban hands. Admiral Stevid is 124 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 1: always wonderful to speak with you. That is Admiral James 125 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: Stavrida's retarded US Navy admiral, of course, also former Supreme 126 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: Allied Commander NATO and Boomberg opinion columnists we should mentioned, 127 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: as well as banks, their branches remain shot. Consumer trends 128 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 1: have had to change. Even if you were the type 129 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: who didn't want to say lodge a check online or 130 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 1: via your mobile phone, or go on and check your balance, 131 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 1: you might be now several weeks and months into this pandemic. 132 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: Let's talk to somebody who knows a lot about pivoting 133 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: the business to try and cater better to customers. Brendan 134 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: Coughlin is head of consumer Banking at Citizens Bank, and 135 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 1: we welcome home now. Brendan, what data can you give 136 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: us about how consumers are shifting their appetites for services 137 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: from banks according to what they're doing with your bank. Yeah, well, 138 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: thanks for having me on and appreciate it. We're seeing 139 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: a very dramatic change in consumer behavior. Obviously the move 140 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 1: towards digitization and financial services was well earned away pre COVID, 141 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 1: but we're really seeing a very dramatic acceleration of those trends. 142 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: We had at our trough, our branches were down about 143 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: fifty in walk in traffic. Now that's rebounded a bit, 144 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 1: but it's now kind of settling in it maybe down now. 145 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 1: Compare that to uh, the ongoing prior COVID trends, which 146 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: was found about seven to eight percent a year, so 147 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: more than a doubling of a slowdown in foot traffic. 148 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,439 Speaker 1: So what's picked up. Our digital activity has picked up 149 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 1: more than twenty and really across all different age segments. 150 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: So we've seen a massive flock to digital banking um 151 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: and an acceleration of our consumers behaviors in banking and 152 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: multiple channels. So Brendan, does it suggest that the Citizens 153 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: Bank and other commercial banks will continue to reduce their 154 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:34,719 Speaker 1: branch footprint. Yeah, I think most banks and Citizens is 155 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 1: certainly one of them. We have reduced over the past 156 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 1: four years above fourteen percent of our branches, UH, and 157 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: we've consolidated them where we've had duplicative points at presence 158 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: in our network. We've also taken down the square footage 159 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 1: quite a bit from an average of four thousand square 160 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: feet to two thousand square feet, really repositioning them as 161 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: advice centers versus transactional centers. And I see that trend 162 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 1: can hinuing our customers. If you think about a non 163 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:08,960 Speaker 1: financial services analogy, most all US consumers got really trained 164 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: on home delivery for groceries over the past handful of months, 165 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 1: and they've sort of learned that convenience, and you find 166 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: it hard to believe that folks are going to re 167 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: enter and go back to the grocery store twice a week. 168 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 1: And the same thing is happening in financial services, where 169 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 1: out of the forcing function of the pandemic, consumers that 170 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: were slow adopters to digital have now learned the convenience 171 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: of digital and will do their day to day transactions 172 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: UH that way. They will still want to use brick 173 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:40,679 Speaker 1: and mortar, but much differently so morbid advice center will 174 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: come in for life events, not day to day cash 175 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: check cashing and as such, so we do see the 176 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: reduction of our physical presence reducing over the next handful 177 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: of years. So Brendan talked us about flows and amounts. 178 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: Are people depositing, our people withdrawing? Are they borrowing? Yeah, 179 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:04,319 Speaker 1: so can Sumer borrowing has certainly slowed, with the exception 180 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 1: of mortgage Obviously, mortgage refinancing with rates as low as 181 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: they are right now is really taken off, as well 182 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: as student loan refinancing with rates the slow those are. 183 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: Those are the parts of consumer borrowing that really pick up, 184 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: and we're seeing an explosion in both of those categories. 185 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 1: Um On the deposit side, given so many customers have 186 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 1: taken forbearance, which means they're not making their monthly loan payment. 187 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: Combined with the the effects of the stimulus, we're seeing 188 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:37,199 Speaker 1: a lot of inflows in deposits now. Much of that 189 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: is still sticking around in the banking system, but we 190 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 1: are seeing very significant returns to life from our consumer base. So, 191 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: as an example, at the trough of COVID, our debit 192 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 1: cards spending, we saw a reduction in thirty five year 193 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: over a year that has all but recovered back to normal. 194 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: It's only down two or three percentage points year every year, 195 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: and so we're seeing return of day to day spending 196 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: all the way back to the averages from prior. What 197 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 1: we're not seeing is those big ticket spending, travel vacations, 198 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: Those are still not coming back, and so that money 199 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: is actually sitting in the banking system and consumer the 200 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:19,439 Speaker 1: savings rate for consumers, uh such has never been as 201 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 1: high as it is right now. Brennan, talk to us 202 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: about some of the credit quality. We have so many 203 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: Americans unfortunately out of work here and we're gonna get 204 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 1: another employment number this Thursday will be a grim number 205 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 1: once again. What are you seeing in terms of credit quality? Yeah, 206 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 1: that's a million dollar question. I would tell you that 207 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 1: um our portfolio of consumer credit has about seven percent 208 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: of our portfolio is in a forbearance status, so they're 209 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: taking a payment holiday, if you will, is still in 210 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 1: their normal payment schedules. The customers that are not in forbearance, 211 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 1: we have not seen a meaningful spike in delinquency whatsoever, 212 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 1: and so very very healthy dynamics when you look at 213 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: the book that's in forbearance. So the seven percent or so, 214 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: we're seeing some very interesting signals. So or so of 215 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 1: that portfolio is still actively making monthly payments even though 216 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 1: they've asked us to go on a payment break. So 217 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: we believe that a meaningful portion of that base is 218 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: using this forbearance as a safety net just in case 219 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 1: and the uncertainty of the market. Um, many of those 220 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: customers will start rolling off their nine forbearance here in 221 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 1: the in the coming months, and so we'll have greater 222 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,199 Speaker 1: levels of insight in terms of how many of those 223 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 1: folks landed on their feet or if they still need 224 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 1: some more support. Brandon, thanks so much for joining us. 225 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 1: We appreciate your input. Kind of you boots on the 226 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 1: ground there with the Consumer and Consumer Lending brand and Conflin, 227 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 1: President of Consumer Deposits and Lending at Citizens Bank. They 228 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: are based in Providence, Rhode Island, giving us some real 229 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: time views on kind of what consumers are doing in 230 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: terms of uh commercial banking. Obviously, it's all that technolo 231 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 1: lergy and digitalization of people embracing the technology, embracing the apps, 232 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: perhaps more so than they ever have. And then the 233 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,079 Speaker 1: question what impact will that have on a consumer banking 234 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 1: going forward? A lot on the president's fate these days, 235 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: when isn't there but it's particularly hot in the presidential chair. 236 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 1: I would imagine these days, let's bring in somebody knows 237 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: a lot about what's going on, both coronavirus wise, national 238 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:29,480 Speaker 1: security wise, and re election wise. Wendy Schiller is professor 239 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: of political science and public policy at Brown University. Wendy, welcome. 240 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: As the virus continues to spread through the states that 241 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: already reopened, will we ever get a federal response or 242 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: has that now passed? Well? Vunny, I think that the 243 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 1: question of a coordinated federal response, I think that window 244 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: of opportunity has passed, at least in this phase, because 245 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: governors have taken upon themselves. They had to, you know, 246 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: for the last couple of months to do this themselves, 247 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: anything from testing, getting PPE equipment, UH to mandating stay 248 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: at home and face mask wearing, face covering wearing. So 249 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: the governors have already used federalism, you know, as maximum 250 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: as they can because they felt, as some of them 251 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: have been quoted as saying that they had no other choice. 252 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: So I don't think that there's an opportunity to rein 253 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: that back in, but certainly as we go into vaccine 254 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 1: development and vaccine distribution, I think there the federal government 255 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 1: still has a pretty strong role to play, all right, 256 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 1: So Whendy, is there any reason to have confidence that 257 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 1: the federal government, the Trump administration, will play a coordinating, 258 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: supportive role in the development and ultimately distribution of a vaccine. 259 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: You know, this is an interesting Trump Paul has had 260 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 1: a sort of a love hate with the pharmaceuticals. Right. 261 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: Trump is been trying to push for lower pharmaceutical pricing. 262 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:51,280 Speaker 1: He has since he got into office. He hasn't been 263 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: chiply successful, but he has made it part of his agenda. 264 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: So I think the opportunity to sort of tell the 265 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 1: big five. I think there's five big company is developing vaccines. 266 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 1: You know what to do, how to do it, and 267 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 1: when to do it. It's a moment that Trump may 268 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 1: want to cease and try to sort of show his 269 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: back in command. But that requires engagement with the President 270 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: on this issue, and he's just been unwilling to really 271 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 1: acknowledge how bad it is. We've seen some signs this 272 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 1: week that's changing certainly. Right. President Pence wearing a mask 273 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 1: while he walked into a room at a podium, took 274 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: a mask off, put it back on, said everybody should 275 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: wear a mask I believe this yesterday. That's a big 276 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 1: term of administration. So if Trump can ease his way 277 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 1: back into this conversation negotiating with the homaceutical companies on 278 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: vaccine pricing in particular, that would be something I think 279 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: to the president's credit. Does he hang in there until 280 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 1: election and beyond in some way, Wendy, I mean, we 281 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: saw a lot of downvalid changes recently in the more 282 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: local elections, and there's a lot that doesn't vote well 283 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 1: for President Trump in the next election. Yes, But the 284 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: thing is too thinks this is a man who's declared 285 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: bankruptcy multiple times. He is not a water people thought, 286 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: you know, when he didn't do that well in the 287 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 1: primary season, he might get out, but he's I don't 288 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:06,879 Speaker 1: think he wants to leave. I think he wants to 289 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:08,440 Speaker 1: wait and see if somebody can beat him. And that's 290 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 1: a really up in the air question. It's fifty fifty. 291 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 1: It depends on turnout, depends on swing states. We are seeing, 292 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 1: you know, some demographics, like voters of the age of 293 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: sixty five, for example, have swung towards the Republicans the 294 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 1: last couple of the presidential elections. They're now basically tied 295 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,919 Speaker 1: slight edge to Trump. That's a loss about seven or 296 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,880 Speaker 1: eight points advantage. That's a big deal. They turned out 297 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:32,159 Speaker 1: in the highest numbers. So if those demographics switch, I 298 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 1: think the president has a real challenge. But if he 299 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,120 Speaker 1: can get them back, um, I think it's still he's 300 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: still very competitive. It's four months out and nobody expected 301 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 1: him to win the first time. So why is she 302 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 1: Donald Trump in his head think he's going to lose 303 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: it the second time. So when let's let's go down 304 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: to the Senate. Here is the Senate if if President 305 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: Trump continues to pull weekly and and and perhaps lose 306 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: the election, perhaps by a you know, significant margin, is 307 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 1: the Republican uh control of the Senate? Is that really 308 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: at risk? It depends how he loses. I think it 309 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: is at risk for two different scenarios. One is that 310 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 1: disaffective Republicans don't want to vote for the Democrats, but 311 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 1: they can't bring themselves to vote for Trump. Trump fatigues 312 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,159 Speaker 1: that's in they just don't vote. That's the problem in 313 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 1: some of the key swing states because they don't get 314 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 1: out the door or they don't mail their ballot back in. 315 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 1: And so the Republican candidates for Senate don't win and 316 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 1: and ride those coattails. So that's one scenario. The other 317 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: is that there's a personally unpopular Republican candidate, like in Kansas, 318 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 1: co Back wins the primary in August. He's very unpopular 319 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 1: in Kansas. They've got a moderate Democrat challenging him. So 320 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 1: that's one surprise state. Montana can probably go for Trump, 321 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: but see both might beat Steve Dane. So you can 322 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,400 Speaker 1: see a scenario in fact where the Democrats could take 323 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 1: the Senate back, you know, narrow margin, and Trump could 324 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 1: still win. You could win in Kansas and win in Montana, 325 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 1: but the Republicans could lose the Senate. So the Russia 326 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: bounty story, Wendy, does that go away like a lot 327 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 1: of other stories that you know popped up national security 328 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 1: wise over the last couple of years, or is this bigger? Well, Monny, 329 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 1: we're gonna need somebody who's in the Trump administration to 330 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: say yes. The President was briefed on this as early 331 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: as February or March. He knew what was happening. He 332 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: didn't do anything about it. We haven't had that yet. 333 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,679 Speaker 1: And a they said, well, the intelligence wasn't good enough 334 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: to brief President Trump. Or Vice President Pence. Now we're 335 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: hearing that he was given a memo. Did he read 336 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 1: the memo? Certainly it does not help bring back the 337 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 1: Russia connection. And with the military right now, it's a 338 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: very fraught relationship between the president of the military and 339 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 1: the idea that he would let that go. You know, 340 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 1: that's something that would be hard to swallow for some 341 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,239 Speaker 1: other part of the Trump voting base. So I think 342 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 1: it's another problem for the president in terms of evoting 343 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 1: his core strength, which is not a majority, but it's 344 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 1: enough to keep him in the game. And if that 345 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,400 Speaker 1: starts to go, I think the pillars of senior citizens, 346 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:49,640 Speaker 1: on the military and disaffected people who are unemployed right now, 347 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: I think that's just a big battle for the president. 348 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: It's got to win some of those people back to 349 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: stay in the game and stay competitive. So when the 350 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: former Vice President Biden, we're four months out to the election, 351 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,680 Speaker 1: he's kept in it, I would say, an exceptionally low 352 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 1: profile here, and maybe it's by design. What do you think, 353 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: uh Mr Biden needs to do over the next four 354 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 1: months or does he just sit back and let the 355 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:15,680 Speaker 1: Trump presidency kind of implode upon itself. Yeah, I'm against 356 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 1: the conventional wisdom I've been saying on to you and 357 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,719 Speaker 1: to other people. You know, he's got to get out 358 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 1: of the basement. Biden's in the basement is becoming kind 359 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 1: of a joke. And I understand that. You know, you 360 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: can let Trump implode, but that still gives Trump the 361 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 1: opportunity to rebound because Trump controls the agenda, he controls 362 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: the public conversation. It's all about Trump. So what if 363 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,440 Speaker 1: Trump start us to recalibrate actually and do better then 364 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 1: Biden scrambling to make his presence known. So I think 365 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 1: it's a mistake to stay in the basement. And I 366 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,199 Speaker 1: think that the problem for the Biden administrations. They keep 367 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,199 Speaker 1: focusing on the competency of the VP choice. There's got 368 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 1: to be compared to round the country. That just reminds 369 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 1: people that Biden might make it through his first term. 370 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,879 Speaker 1: It just to reminds people Biden's seventy seven. So I 371 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,639 Speaker 1: think that's a mistake too. You know, focus on strategic 372 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 1: collectoral importance for the v P just like always, and 373 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: start campaigning on an issue. What are you gonna do 374 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: about the economy, What are you can do about COVID? 375 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 1: You know, you let Trump be the bad guy, and 376 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: you know you benefits from that right now, but that 377 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: also gives them the opportunity to be the good guy 378 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: in September October, if the economy does start to pick 379 00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 1: up and we do start get a handle on COVID. 380 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 1: So I think it's a huge gamble on the part 381 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,880 Speaker 1: of the Biden campaign. Wendy ten seconds, who's the front 382 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:26,159 Speaker 1: runner for VP? Pick right now? For Widen, the elite 383 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 1: gossip is, of course Kamala Harris. But I think if 384 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 1: you go back to basic politics, Val Demmings is from 385 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 1: a swing state, which is Florida, So you go with 386 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: a woman of color, I think that you still have 387 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 1: to go back to the basics if you want to 388 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: try to win this election. Wendy, thank you so much 389 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,159 Speaker 1: for joining us. Always always great content. We always appreciate it. 390 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: Whendy Shild, Professor of political science and public Policy at 391 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 1: Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island. Finding just some great 392 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,919 Speaker 1: stuff there from Wendy as always, And there's just so 393 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 1: much going on as it relates to this upcoming election. Yeah, 394 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: interesting to hear her say that the Bell Demmings might 395 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 1: be the topic right now. At least, of course, you 396 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 1: know that there's a little while to go, but at 397 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: some point we're going to get an announcement. Yeah, it's 398 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 1: just amazing here where again four months after the election 399 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 1: and we're hardly talking about it. But that will change. 400 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: I'm sure. It seems like, you know, everybody's talking about 401 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: treatments for this virus and potential vaccines. Uh. That's why 402 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:23,479 Speaker 1: I think we're so fortunate to have Sam Fazeli kind 403 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: of at our beck and call if you will. San 404 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,159 Speaker 1: Fazeli is one of the top healthcare analysts in the 405 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 1: city of London for Bloomberg Intelligence. I also understand he 406 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: has some management responsibilities over there, presumably. Uh, Sam, thanks 407 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. Let's talk about another 408 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: one of the pharmaceutical companies today in the news in 409 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: in the Ovo, one of the front runners to come 410 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,360 Speaker 1: up with a COVID nineteen vaccine. What's the news coming 411 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 1: out of in Ovo? Yeah, high pool. Um. Yeah, so 412 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 1: we've had a press released today which I think couldn't 413 00:22:55,440 --> 00:23:02,239 Speaker 1: be more um limited on actual details and if they 414 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 1: tried um. The comments that I've seen is an is 415 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: an overall immune response the patient. I have no idea 416 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 1: what that means and you have a PhD in this, Doune, Yeah, well, yeah, 417 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 1: but I don't have a pH d in English literature. 418 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 1: In this the English language, what I what are the 419 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: sorts of things that we look for are this number 420 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: of patients had this amount of antibody in their blood. Actually, 421 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:32,959 Speaker 1: I mean not to beat them up too much. I mean, 422 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 1: the market is already doing that for us. But the 423 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: reality is that list things are pretty useless unless you 424 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,919 Speaker 1: present data. Data is what matters at the end of 425 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,880 Speaker 1: the day. You remember going back to when Moderna put 426 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:53,440 Speaker 1: their press release up, we thought that was economical on details. 427 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: So this, this is even this is one one level higher. 428 00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 1: And I don't know why why what you would read 429 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 1: into that? Would you read therefore that they haven't got 430 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: a vaccine that's really very effective? Time will will tell. 431 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,119 Speaker 1: We need to see the data. And even if they 432 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,879 Speaker 1: showed us superb antibody levels in every single patient that 433 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 1: was vaccinated, somebody's going to prove eventually that that's protective. 434 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:21,680 Speaker 1: And that's where the FDA commentary coming afterwards. Right, So, Sam, 435 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 1: just taking the bigger picture look at things, talk to 436 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: us about how vaccines actually work. Dr Prouchy said something 437 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 1: the other day that was quite interesting to the effect 438 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,639 Speaker 1: that if anti vactors don't get the vaccine, then it 439 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: automatically isn't as powerful. Absolutely, so you do this so 440 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 1: called her immunity h X level of number of a 441 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 1: percentage of patients people supposedly se the number is a 442 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 1: magic number. We need to be immune to the to 443 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,640 Speaker 1: the virus for her immunity to take place. And it's 444 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 1: interesting about the subject that we didn't talk about it 445 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,679 Speaker 1: a little bit even during the day today with some 446 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,199 Speaker 1: clients as to what is what happened if of the 447 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:10,679 Speaker 1: population decide to make the vaccine also a political uh 448 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:14,880 Speaker 1: thing and not take it, whether antivacces or not, then 449 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,920 Speaker 1: that of course they are at risk, and the other 450 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: sevent so long as there that sort of level will 451 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 1: have some level of immunity. The problem is if you 452 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 1: have a virus that runs around still in a pretty 453 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 1: large population, you continue to give it the opportunity to 454 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 1: to continue to effect, of course, and also to mutate, 455 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:39,360 Speaker 1: which is of course what we don't want. Yeah. Interesting, Sam, so, 456 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 1: but there's I guess the Food and DUG administration today, 457 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 1: I guess it's going to outline some conditions for proving 458 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen vaccine. What are you expecting to hear from 459 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: the f D A. Yeah, I would love to see 460 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 1: the detail of that. Some of the headline things that 461 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 1: I've seen are kind of make you go back and 462 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: think about that the different ways you could interpreted. Um. 463 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: The reality is that it will be a guidance document. 464 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,919 Speaker 1: A lot of it will come back down to people 465 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: are interacting with the FDA with the data that they've got. 466 00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: But I would assume from what I've seen and what 467 00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 1: I've heard that it would not be enough just to 468 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:21,360 Speaker 1: show here's my vaccine and nine patients had an immune response, 469 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 1: which is kind of like what the press is, which 470 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 1: just so we need to have parameters, so so sort 471 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:27,879 Speaker 1: of bio markets. We need to have parameters as to 472 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 1: what is a protictive level of an immune response. And 473 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 1: maybe the if you will say, you need to prove 474 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 1: to us that if you gave this in an environment 475 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:40,680 Speaker 1: where the virus is running wild, you reduce the percentage 476 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,400 Speaker 1: of patients who actually contract the disease or don't get 477 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 1: severe disease, or don't get hospitalized something like that. Do 478 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 1: we know yet if having had the disease makes you 479 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:57,199 Speaker 1: automatically immune. UM. You know the no, I don't think 480 00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:00,040 Speaker 1: you can you can know for certain, but there is 481 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,640 Speaker 1: a lot of data that keeps suggesting. Remember we've already 482 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 1: had some of these coronaviruses around like nerves and like stars, 483 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:12,360 Speaker 1: the original version, and that those patients, those individuals who 484 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 1: were infected it did appear to have longer term immunity. 485 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 1: So one the general hope is that that's the case 486 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 1: here too. All right, Sam, So again we were chatting 487 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 1: with you yesterday and we were talking about the report 488 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,920 Speaker 1: your research note that came out with that timetable. UM. 489 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:33,200 Speaker 1: So is the sense here that there will be a vaccine? 490 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: Is is there a material risk that they just don't 491 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,399 Speaker 1: find one? Well, look at getting back to that question 492 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,440 Speaker 1: of what is a vaccine defined? And so let's little 493 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:49,680 Speaker 1: China has already UM got one company with two vaccines 494 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:55,160 Speaker 1: that are reported in a press release UM evidence of activity. 495 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: They just had one another one in the past day 496 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,640 Speaker 1: or two sign of farm. One decent of patients had 497 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,160 Speaker 1: neutralizing antibodies. Is that enough? We don't know. But if 498 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,879 Speaker 1: they did, and then of course can Fino, which uses 499 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,119 Speaker 1: a technology not too different to that of Johnson and 500 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:16,239 Speaker 1: Johnson and as a kind for university, they have just 501 00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:20,919 Speaker 1: been uh used in the ministry. So things are moving 502 00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: forward and there must be data in there that's convincing 503 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 1: it the the governments that it's worthwhile vaccinating people. Some 504 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,199 Speaker 1: Thank you for all your research and for keeping us 505 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,399 Speaker 1: up to date, and we will be checking in with 506 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 1: you regularly on this because it's what everyone is waiting for. 507 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 1: Sam Fazli is senior Pharmaceutical analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, and 508 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 1: we thank them. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. 509 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 510 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm 511 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,959 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Bonny Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm 512 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,640 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can 513 00:28:55,680 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio. Well