1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,160 Speaker 1: John Taylor is a professor of economics at Stanford University 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:06,120 Speaker 1: and of course the man behind the so called Taylor rule, 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 1: a rule not quite implemented by the Fed, although it 4 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: could certainly gets talked about. 5 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 2: Professor. 6 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: There's been a lot of discussion looking at today's CPI report, 7 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,080 Speaker 1: three percent on headline, even core coming down. You overlay 8 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: that with where the FED fund's rate is, and a 9 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,240 Speaker 1: lot of people, Professor will say mission, if not accomplished, 10 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:24,439 Speaker 1: certainly almost there. 11 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 2: Well, I think they've done a lot of good. 12 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 3: Remember how far behind they were a year and a 13 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 3: half ago or so, and it's they've adjusted by almost 14 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 3: five basis point five hundred basis points from a quarter 15 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 3: a point to five and a quarter and it's done 16 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 3: some good. 17 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: Let's, let's face it. 18 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:43,519 Speaker 3: Think it would have been a little better if they've 19 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 3: gone a little earlier. But let's cheer that they've gone 20 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 3: this far. But I still think they need to go 21 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,319 Speaker 3: a little bit further. And we'll see if they move 22 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 3: next time, but I think a little bit further would 23 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 3: be safe for at this point. 24 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: Well, when we talk about going a little bit of further, Professor, 25 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: there's always that question here about those proverbial long and 26 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: variable lags whatever the phrase is here, and whether there 27 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 1: does need to be maybe a little bit of a 28 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 1: waiting period to see how that affects the economy, to 29 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: see how much that affects tamping down inflation even further. 30 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 3: Well, they've had a waiting period already. That's really why 31 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 3: they delayed. I think a little bit to see. But 32 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 3: and this number three percent is quite good, there's no 33 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: question about it. It's come down, but it was quite high. 34 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 3: I think it's a showing that the actions have worked. 35 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 3: Don't forget this is they've took some actions, raised the 36 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 3: interest rate, that's tamed inflation. I think they to be safe, 37 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 3: they need a little got bit further. And this is 38 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 3: one observation three percent, But a little bit further and 39 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 3: we'll have to see. I mean, there's no sense cheering 40 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 3: completely because it's not over. Also, let's not forget the world. 41 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 3: The world is out there with inflation all over the place. 42 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 4: Yes, absolutely, Canada, the UK, the European Union. I remember, Professor, 43 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 4: a couple of months into the FED rate hikes last year, 44 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 4: there was talk about how it would be relatively easy 45 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 4: to go from eight to four percent, but to go 46 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 4: from four percent to two percent would be a lot trickier, 47 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 4: it would take a lot more time. What will the 48 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 4: effort to bring inflation down to the Fed's two percent 49 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 4: target look like to you? 50 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 3: I think if they continue on the pace that they've gone, 51 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 3: it may be a little bit slower, that's fine. But 52 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 3: two percent is their target, and it's not just the FED. 53 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 3: It's something which has been glued in, and I think, 54 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 3: of course there's some talks about moving it up a 55 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 3: little bit. 56 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 2: I don't think that's necessary. I don't think it's good 57 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 2: to do that. So stick with where they are. 58 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 3: That's what they seem to be saying, and it may 59 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 3: require a little bit more, but I don't think. 60 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 2: That much more. 61 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 3: Basically on the so called tailor rule is about it's 62 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 3: very close already at this point. 63 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 4: We know that base effects worked in favor of cooling 64 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 4: inflation for the month of June, and Bloomberg Economics expects 65 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 4: headline CPI to edge higher in July and August because 66 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 4: those favorable base effects reverse. Do you think the Central 67 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 4: Bank and investors are sufficiently prepared for inflation to model 68 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,399 Speaker 4: rate in a jagged fashion and a nonlinear fashion that 69 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 4: there was going to be fits and starts. 70 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 2: Yes, I think they are. 71 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 3: They're a little bit of surprised has come down as 72 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 3: much it has come. It's not a surprise to people 73 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 3: who look at policy rules. But it's come down. But 74 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,799 Speaker 3: let's not give up. You know, maybe it's four percent, 75 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 3: it's three percent, but the goal is two percent. And 76 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 3: that's not just the United States, other countries as well. 77 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 3: Other countries are relying on that, and I think there 78 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 3: could be some backups, no question about it. It's not a 79 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:33,679 Speaker 3: rocket science type of thing. But look at your charge 80 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 3: has come down quite a bit in the last year, 81 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 3: but look how much it got up before then. 82 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 2: We don't want to repeat that again. 83 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: Well, it gets to the question, now, I guess I 84 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: kind of what the Fed does next, Not just so 85 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: much a monetary policy, but I guess how they sort 86 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: of implement that policy in what should be at least 87 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 1: what most people believe, Professor is going to be kind 88 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: of a new era of higher interest rates, at least 89 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: higher relative to the near zero rates that we had 90 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 1: for several years here, What do you think that discussion 91 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: looks like? I mean, how does J Powell, assuming he's 92 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: the leader of that discussion how does he steer that. 93 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 2: Well, I think they have various ways to do it. 94 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 3: As I mentioned to you, they publishing the rules and 95 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 3: their books at this point, and their reports. One just 96 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 3: came out last week. They've been in him and out 97 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 3: and now they were quite in and they reverted that. 98 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 3: Everybody on the infom scene knows about that. We had 99 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 3: a meeting just here at Stanford not too long ago 100 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 3: with several members of the FMC, also the former government 101 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 3: the Bank of Japan wade in and so I think 102 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:34,160 Speaker 3: there's a recognition that they have to follow some kind 103 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 3: of a strategy rule. After all, why did inflation get 104 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:38,919 Speaker 3: as close to ten percent as it did is because 105 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 3: I think. 106 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 2: They got off yeah, a year and a half ago. 107 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 2: And let's not forget that as well. Oh that's a 108 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 2: good point. 109 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: And I mean you mentioned that that paper, that report 110 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: that was out at the last a few weeks ago here, 111 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: and I mean obviously it singled out the tailor rule 112 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: as well as the adjusted tailor rule. I think there 113 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 1: were three other metrics in there as well, like the 114 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 1: balance approach rule and the first difference rule. I mean, 115 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 1: all of these rules are kind of cut from the 116 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 1: same cloth. So they're acknowledging a their existence. They seem 117 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 1: to be acknowledging their usefulness, but they're not actually using them. 118 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 3: Well, I think that they realized they got far off 119 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 3: a year and a half ago, let's face it, and 120 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 3: if you read the reports, say we caught up. 121 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 2: We're doing much better than we were. 122 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 3: And so that's a recognition now that other things going on, 123 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 3: of course, which made it confusing. But I think that 124 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 3: this is a demonstration that as long as central banks 125 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,919 Speaker 3: are fairly close to these rules or strategies, they're not 126 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: rocket science. 127 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: They're pretty straightforward. 128 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 3: And also, let's not forget other countries, so European Central Bank, etc. 129 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 3: Has to follow the same track, and inflation is high 130 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 3: in other countries as well. 131 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, they're pretty straightforward. You say that a lot, but 132 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 4: maybe the simplicity scares off people at times. I'm curious, Professor, 133 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 4: has anyone at the Federal Reserve, whether it's the FMC 134 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 4: or otherwise, reached out to you during this period of 135 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,799 Speaker 4: aggressive rate hikes, to you know, oh, hey, yeah, maybe 136 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 4: maybe you were right, maybe we're kind of behind and 137 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:04,279 Speaker 4: getting this started. 138 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, there's lots of conversation back and forth 139 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 3: and we just had a meeting here where there were 140 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 3: several members of vfm CE. 141 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 2: And yes, there's a lot of discussion. 142 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 3: As everyone knows about this strategy, they have others, as 143 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 3: Romaine was indicating, there's there's several others there, variants on 144 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 3: the same idea. 145 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 4: But did they say, yeah, this was far bad. Did 146 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 4: they say yeah, this was completely our bad. We mess 147 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 4: this up? 148 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 2: Well almost almost. 149 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 3: It's hard to say it quite that dramatically, but if 150 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 3: you read between the lines, I think you see that's 151 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 3: pretty clear. And after all, they were way off and 152 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 3: maybe five hundred basis points. 153 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 4: I'm also serious. 154 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 2: Let's not forget that. That's important to keep in mind. 155 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 3: I think it's one of the reasons why there will 156 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 3: be more emphasis on strategies and rules going forward than 157 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 3: we've seen recently. So we should be paying attention to that. 158 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 3: That's one of the reasons I've emphasized it recently. 159 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 4: I mentioned how the tailor rule is simple, and so 160 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 4: simple that perhaps people might be a little bit confused 161 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 4: by how simple it is because every situation is always different. 162 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 4: There are always some new factors to weigh in every downturn, 163 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 4: like a pandemic generated supply chain crisis or disruption that 164 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 4: you know simple formulas may not account for. Do you 165 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 4: think that the simplicity in the straightforwardness of the rule 166 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 4: makes people reluctant to adopt it? 167 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 3: Perhaps, But remember it started very complicated. It wasn't always 168 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 3: so simple. We tried to make it simple over time. 169 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 3: It's thirty years old at least at this point, and 170 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 3: originally it was quite complicated, taking into all the things 171 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 3: that central bankers think about, and it is always it's 172 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 3: hard to believe just a couple of three variables is 173 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 3: all that you need. 174 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 2: But I think that's what people have observed. 175 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 3: And you know, we had inflation rate close to ten percent, 176 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 3: nine point one percent, and to some extent that was 177 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 3: because I think it's because they got off I shut 178 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 3: out about at the time, and now they're getting back 179 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 3: on and things are improving dramatically. 180 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 2: As you mentioned. 181 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: I am curious about how we factor in some of 182 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: the labor market conditions, or rather the uncertainty around some 183 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: of those conditions, Professor, because I mean going forward, I 184 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: mean we're kind of past the point of just looking 185 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: at whatever the headline inflation numbers are, what the FED 186 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 1: is going to do. We know that right now it 187 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:26,280 Speaker 1: is about payroll growth and about wages, and whether that 188 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 1: falls in line with some of the other deflationary or 189 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: some of the other disinflation that we've seen, I should 190 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: say absolutely. 191 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 2: And there's other things. 192 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 3: There's quantitative easy which is is still there as a possibility. 193 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 3: There's other ways to do entre policy, more emphasis on 194 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 3: Monte airgud so we aggregate. So we've seen this before. 195 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 3: It could come back, although I think now there's been 196 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 3: quite a bit of emphasis on the interest rate, what 197 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 3: it should be, how far it is from a normal level, 198 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 3: what is the equilibrium interistrates are two percent or one percent? 199 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 3: Some of emphasizes more and so that lowers it a 200 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 3: little bit. We'll have to see as we come out. 201 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 3: But it seems to me that the strategy of looking 202 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 3: at the interest rate in a particular I would call 203 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 3: it rules based way, but whatever you want to call 204 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 3: it a strategy is where we are going. And other 205 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 3: countries are following the same method as well. 206 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 1: There's going to be a lot of discussion, not only 207 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,440 Speaker 1: of course within the halls of the FED itself, but 208 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 1: of course we have the big Jackson Hole event later 209 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: in August, which of course is always an opportunity for 210 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 1: a variety of economists to sort of pitch their ideas. 211 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: I mean, you're sure you're familiar with it as well. 212 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 1: Here what do you think? I guess they will end 213 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:41,319 Speaker 1: up discussing beyond just sort of the guard rails, if 214 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: you will, for monetary policy going forward, what becomes that 215 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:46,439 Speaker 1: new structural issue they need to address. 216 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 3: I think that they'll have to understand why inflation got 217 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 3: as high as a gut and to some extent, that's 218 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 3: a global phenomenon that should be a big topic. 219 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 2: I was at the first Jackson Old conference. 220 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 3: Nineteen eighty two is a long time ago, and so 221 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 3: we've been discussing these things long time. But I think 222 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 3: that is the most important thing to discuss, is how 223 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 3: we've got in this situation. And also going forward, is 224 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 3: there going to be more emphasis on rules or strategy? 225 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:13,439 Speaker 2: And I think that my senses there'll be more. 226 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: Are you going this year? 227 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 2: I'm so fud. I don't know. It's a little I 228 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 2: don't travel as much as I used to, you know it. 229 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: Is, yeah, okay, all right, well then I've got some 230 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: good fishing. 231 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 3: Well. 232 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:24,839 Speaker 4: Airfares are down, professors, so it might be time to 233 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 4: get to book your ticket. 234 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 2: Maybe I can walk. 235 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 4: John Taylor, Stanford University will be a long walk over 236 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 4: to Jackson Hall. Thank you so much for joining us today.