WEBVTT - The Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor Talks Undecided Senate Races

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now as we speak, ninety nine percent of the

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<v Speaker 2>vote count in total is in in Michigan and Alyssa.

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<v Speaker 2>Slotkin is up against Mike Rogers by just three tenths

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<v Speaker 2>of a percentage point. The margin is incredibly tight. Then

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<v Speaker 2>you go to Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick is up forty nine

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<v Speaker 2>point one percent to Bob Casey's forty eight point four

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<v Speaker 2>percent with ninety seven percent of the votes in. And

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<v Speaker 2>in Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin is holding on to about a

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<v Speaker 2>one point lead forty nine point four percent, Eric Couvdy's

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<v Speaker 2>forty eight and a half percent. Ninety nine percent of

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<v Speaker 2>the votes are in there, but all three Joe still

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<v Speaker 2>too close to call right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Could drop bonus while we're on the air here now,

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<v Speaker 3>which is a great opportunity to bring in cook political reports.

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<v Speaker 3>Senate and Governor's Editor Jessica Taylor, This is Jessica's specialty,

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<v Speaker 3>and Jessica's great to have you back. You've probably been

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<v Speaker 3>up all night as well. Your expectation now that we've

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<v Speaker 3>seen Michigan be called by the Associated Press on the

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<v Speaker 3>presidential level, what happens to the Senate.

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<v Speaker 4>Race, I think that when I look at, like you said,

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<v Speaker 4>almost all of the vote count is in. I was

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<v Speaker 4>talking with my sources, both Democratic and Republican this morning.

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<v Speaker 4>They were waiting on Wayne County to come in there

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<v Speaker 4>and they expected that that would break pretty heavily for Slatkin.

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<v Speaker 1>If i'm again, I'm on one hour of.

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<v Speaker 4>Sleep, so it looks she's a head by about eighteen

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<v Speaker 4>thousand votes right now. I think that's probably hard to

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<v Speaker 4>overcome at this point. As you mentioned, it's very close,

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<v Speaker 4>but I think that she's probably going to hold on there.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's a hole there. In the Senate race in Wisconsin.

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<v Speaker 4>We don't have that race called yet either, but again,

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<v Speaker 4>based on what I'm seeing and talking to my sources,

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<v Speaker 4>they expect that Tammy Baldwin is going to win a

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<v Speaker 4>very very close race there, even as again Trump has

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<v Speaker 4>won the state. The one that's most surprising to me

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<v Speaker 4>is Pennsylvania. You were mentioning another very close race. David

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<v Speaker 4>McCormick is in it is leading Democratic Senator Bob Casey there.

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<v Speaker 4>When I look at where the outstanding vote is, there's

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<v Speaker 4>there were some vote tabulation machine and malfunction in Cambria County,

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<v Speaker 4>which is Johnstown, and that's a very Republican stronghold.

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<v Speaker 1>There are some still outstanding apps.

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<v Speaker 4>And tee ballots in Pittsburgh and in Philadelphia, but once

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<v Speaker 4>we get that Cambria County vote in, I don't think

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to be enough for Casey to make up

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<v Speaker 4>the difference in those bigger population centers. So again, not

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<v Speaker 4>Callege yet. We don't know what the results are going

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<v Speaker 4>to be till they finally come in. But I would

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<v Speaker 4>much rather be McCormick in this instance and in those

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<v Speaker 4>other races. I do think that Democrats are going to

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<v Speaker 4>hold on to Michigan and Wisconsin well.

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<v Speaker 2>And then there's Nevada Jessica. Right now, eighty four percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the votes are in. Sam Brown, the Republican challenger,

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<v Speaker 2>is up a tenth of a percentage point right now

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<v Speaker 2>against the incumbent, Jackie Rosen. We're talking a margin here

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<v Speaker 2>of less than a thousand votes. I don't know if

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<v Speaker 2>you have a strong feeling about what way this goal

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<v Speaker 2>ismate goes ultimately when all theccounts are in. But for

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<v Speaker 2>this reason some of the others we were just talking about,

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<v Speaker 2>what's the likelihood of recounts and potential legal challenges here.

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<v Speaker 4>I think in Nevada there are I think Democrats were

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<v Speaker 4>always sort of preparing for and Republicans were for I

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<v Speaker 4>think some very late counting because they have to sort

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<v Speaker 4>of cure ballots.

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<v Speaker 1>There's absentee ballots.

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<v Speaker 4>That could could certainly face legal challenges and things too. Again,

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<v Speaker 4>when I look at sort of the outstanding vote, Rosen

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<v Speaker 4>is leading there and most of the vote is still

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<v Speaker 4>left in Washo, which is Reno, and in Clark County,

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<v Speaker 4>which is Las Vegas. I would rather be her in

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<v Speaker 4>this instance, but again I think it's going to be

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<v Speaker 4>very very close. This was a race I was hearing

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<v Speaker 4>from Republicans that they felt like was breaking their way

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<v Speaker 4>pretty late, largely because of the presidential race there, even

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<v Speaker 4>though Rosen had a pretty substantial lead for much of

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<v Speaker 4>the race.

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<v Speaker 1>So again, this is another one.

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<v Speaker 4>So I think by my account right now, Republicans have

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<v Speaker 4>at least a fifty two to forty eight majority. That

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<v Speaker 4>means they flipped West Virginia, which we knew, they flipped Ohio,

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<v Speaker 4>and they flipped Montana.

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<v Speaker 1>Those were the ones that we expected.

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<v Speaker 4>More they flip Pennsylvania, like I expect that they will

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<v Speaker 4>that's fifty three, So Nevada, maybe that could be fifty four.

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<v Speaker 3>Wow, well, Jessica, if a rising tide lifts all votes.

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<v Speaker 3>Carrie Lake sprung a leak somewhere, And I'm wondering what

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<v Speaker 3>you thought about this, Reuben Diego, the Democrat, on a

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<v Speaker 3>night like that, taking a lead over such a well

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<v Speaker 3>known Republican candidate, former TV news anchor, closely associated with

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<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump. Where did she go wrong?

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<v Speaker 1>She was well known and that was her problem.

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<v Speaker 4>She came in with very high negatives from that twenty

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<v Speaker 4>twenty two gubernatorial race. Mitch McConnell gave a press conference

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<v Speaker 4>on Capitol Hillary earlier today. They asked him what his

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<v Speaker 4>takeaway was from the Senate races. He said, candidate quality matters.

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<v Speaker 4>That's why they feel like they got strong candidates there

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<v Speaker 4>in Pennsylvania with David McCormick, and races there in Montana

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<v Speaker 4>as well. Carrie Lake was not a strong candidate. We

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<v Speaker 4>knew this going in that she was a very polarizing figure.

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<v Speaker 4>She came in high negatives, was never really able to

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<v Speaker 4>overcome them, never really, you know, in that race for

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<v Speaker 4>a governor.

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<v Speaker 1>She insulted sort of McCain voters and those swing voters.

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<v Speaker 4>There in Maricopa County that makes up over sixty percent

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<v Speaker 4>of the vote.

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<v Speaker 1>Geygo ran a.

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<v Speaker 4>Very smart race. He was able to spend early on.

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<v Speaker 4>He had the spending advantage. He was able to introduce

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<v Speaker 4>himsel Off there. Even in a state where he was

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<v Speaker 4>more progressive than the state's other senator, Mary Kelly, that

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<v Speaker 4>ran us more of a centrist, So he was able

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<v Speaker 4>to tell his story being raised in poverty by a

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<v Speaker 4>single mother going on to be in the Marines. So

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<v Speaker 4>I think that also we saw him Joe better with

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<v Speaker 4>the types of voters that Donald Trump was doing better.

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<v Speaker 1>With, both the Latino men and black men. So those

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<v Speaker 1>were the split ticket voters.

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<v Speaker 4>But also those independents broke against Kerry Lake, and I

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<v Speaker 4>think it's because she was I think she was sort

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<v Speaker 4>of the wrong candidate for the moment in Arizona.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, as we consider the idea of split ticketing, you

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<v Speaker 2>look at a state considering you follow gubernatorial races as well,

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<v Speaker 2>like North Carolina, which of course Donald Trump won by

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<v Speaker 2>a margin of about four points, are a little under that.

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<v Speaker 2>Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate for governor, won by fourteen

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<v Speaker 2>points in North Carolina, what's the takeaway there, Jessica.

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<v Speaker 4>Again, the candidates matter, and you had the lieutenant governor

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<v Speaker 4>there that Republicans, many of them knew early on, was

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<v Speaker 4>a very controversial candidate. And then you had a scandal

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<v Speaker 4>that came out about allegedly posting on a porn site

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<v Speaker 4>and talking about being a black Nazi. Republicans largely abandoned him.

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<v Speaker 4>He didn't have much of a campaign infrastructure to begin with.

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<v Speaker 4>He was off air on advertising for the last two

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<v Speaker 4>months of the campaign basically. But I think also voters

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<v Speaker 4>do look at a vote for governor and a vote

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<v Speaker 4>for Senate very differently. Actually, in the last hundred years

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<v Speaker 4>there in North Carolina, they've only elected a Republican governor

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<v Speaker 4>three times, so they are.

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<v Speaker 1>Used to splitting their tickets.

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<v Speaker 4>And in fact, even as Trump carried the state in

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<v Speaker 4>twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty and Roy Cooper won

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<v Speaker 4>both times.

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<v Speaker 1>But actually, you.

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<v Speaker 4>Know, apart from the top of the ticket at the

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<v Speaker 4>presidential level, some nor North Carolina Democrats were.

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<v Speaker 1>Having a pretty good night, and I think that was

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<v Speaker 1>sort of Stein helping them.

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<v Speaker 4>They've broken the supermajority in the state legislature, they won

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<v Speaker 4>the attorney General's raised. Democrats have kept that seat, and

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<v Speaker 4>then they also won a Secretary of Public Instruction basically

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<v Speaker 4>the secretary of education there that was also with a

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<v Speaker 4>very controversial Republican candidate.

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<v Speaker 3>All Right, Jessica, I want to talk leadership with you

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<v Speaker 3>here now that we're looking at a red Senate here,

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<v Speaker 3>and I guess to your point, we could still add

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<v Speaker 3>a couple more to the list. There is a thought

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<v Speaker 3>with Donald Trump on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue

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<v Speaker 3>that this is not the race we thought it was

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<v Speaker 3>to replace Mitch McConnell, that Steve Danes could even be

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<v Speaker 3>drafted late in the game. Here, we're only a couple

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<v Speaker 3>of weeks out from this what's about to happen.

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<v Speaker 4>Danes did give an interview with Semaphore where he did

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<v Speaker 4>say again he would not be drafted. He was not

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<v Speaker 4>interested in doing this. I wouldn't be surprised to see

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<v Speaker 4>him in leadership in some position, especially after having a

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<v Speaker 4>very strong showing for Senate Republicans.

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<v Speaker 1>He was my dark horse, but he is hick. I said.

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<v Speaker 4>He gave that interview to Burgess ever there Somemophore last

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<v Speaker 4>week and said that he would not be there.

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<v Speaker 1>So we have the.

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<v Speaker 4>Two of the Johns, John Thune of South Dakota and

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<v Speaker 4>John Cornet of Texas. Now some they have had a

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<v Speaker 4>rockier relationship with Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. Rick Scott of Florida has also thrown his

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<v Speaker 1>name in there. Now.

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<v Speaker 4>He had a bigger than expected victory after having sort

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<v Speaker 4>of very narrow winds for governor and for Senate.

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<v Speaker 1>But he also had a very contrab Marshall tenure.

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<v Speaker 4>At the top of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in

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<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty two when they actually lost a seat. So

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's going to be a lot of jockeying

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<v Speaker 4>behind the scenes. I think probably still fun or corn

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<v Speaker 4>and have the inside slot.

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<v Speaker 1>Ben the gek. You said, is there another candidate that emerges?

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<v Speaker 1>Perhaps two? All right?

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<v Speaker 2>Jessica Taylor, the Cook Political Reports, Senate and Governor's Editor,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you so much for joining us.