1 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 2: Right now as we speak, ninety nine percent of the 3 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 2: vote count in total is in in Michigan and Alyssa. 4 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 2: Slotkin is up against Mike Rogers by just three tenths 5 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 2: of a percentage point. The margin is incredibly tight. Then 6 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 2: you go to Pennsylvania, Dave McCormick is up forty nine 7 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 2: point one percent to Bob Casey's forty eight point four 8 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:28,159 Speaker 2: percent with ninety seven percent of the votes in. And 9 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin is holding on to about a 10 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 2: one point lead forty nine point four percent, Eric Couvdy's 11 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: forty eight and a half percent. Ninety nine percent of 12 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 2: the votes are in there, but all three Joe still 13 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 2: too close to call right now. 14 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 3: Could drop bonus while we're on the air here now, 15 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 3: which is a great opportunity to bring in cook political reports. 16 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 3: Senate and Governor's Editor Jessica Taylor, This is Jessica's specialty, 17 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 3: and Jessica's great to have you back. You've probably been 18 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 3: up all night as well. Your expectation now that we've 19 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 3: seen Michigan be called by the Associated Press on the 20 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 3: presidential level, what happens to the Senate. 21 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 4: Race, I think that when I look at, like you said, 22 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 4: almost all of the vote count is in. I was 23 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 4: talking with my sources, both Democratic and Republican this morning. 24 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 4: They were waiting on Wayne County to come in there 25 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 4: and they expected that that would break pretty heavily for Slatkin. 26 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: If i'm again, I'm on one hour of. 27 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 4: Sleep, so it looks she's a head by about eighteen 28 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 4: thousand votes right now. I think that's probably hard to 29 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:24,759 Speaker 4: overcome at this point. As you mentioned, it's very close, 30 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 4: but I think that she's probably going to hold on there. 31 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 1: So that's a hole there. In the Senate race in Wisconsin. 32 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 4: We don't have that race called yet either, but again, 33 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 4: based on what I'm seeing and talking to my sources, 34 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 4: they expect that Tammy Baldwin is going to win a 35 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 4: very very close race there, even as again Trump has 36 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 4: won the state. The one that's most surprising to me 37 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 4: is Pennsylvania. You were mentioning another very close race. David 38 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 4: McCormick is in it is leading Democratic Senator Bob Casey there. 39 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 4: When I look at where the outstanding vote is, there's 40 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 4: there were some vote tabulation machine and malfunction in Cambria County, 41 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 4: which is Johnstown, and that's a very Republican stronghold. 42 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: There are some still outstanding apps. 43 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,119 Speaker 4: And tee ballots in Pittsburgh and in Philadelphia, but once 44 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 4: we get that Cambria County vote in, I don't think 45 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 4: it's going to be enough for Casey to make up 46 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 4: the difference in those bigger population centers. So again, not 47 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 4: Callege yet. We don't know what the results are going 48 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 4: to be till they finally come in. But I would 49 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,239 Speaker 4: much rather be McCormick in this instance and in those 50 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 4: other races. I do think that Democrats are going to 51 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 4: hold on to Michigan and Wisconsin well. 52 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 2: And then there's Nevada Jessica. Right now, eighty four percent 53 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 2: of the votes are in. Sam Brown, the Republican challenger, 54 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 2: is up a tenth of a percentage point right now 55 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 2: against the incumbent, Jackie Rosen. We're talking a margin here 56 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 2: of less than a thousand votes. I don't know if 57 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 2: you have a strong feeling about what way this goal 58 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 2: ismate goes ultimately when all theccounts are in. But for 59 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 2: this reason some of the others we were just talking about, 60 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 2: what's the likelihood of recounts and potential legal challenges here. 61 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 4: I think in Nevada there are I think Democrats were 62 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 4: always sort of preparing for and Republicans were for I 63 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 4: think some very late counting because they have to sort 64 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 4: of cure ballots. 65 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 1: There's absentee ballots. 66 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 4: That could could certainly face legal challenges and things too. Again, 67 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 4: when I look at sort of the outstanding vote, Rosen 68 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:17,919 Speaker 4: is leading there and most of the vote is still 69 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 4: left in Washo, which is Reno, and in Clark County, 70 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 4: which is Las Vegas. I would rather be her in 71 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 4: this instance, but again I think it's going to be 72 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 4: very very close. This was a race I was hearing 73 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 4: from Republicans that they felt like was breaking their way 74 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 4: pretty late, largely because of the presidential race there, even 75 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 4: though Rosen had a pretty substantial lead for much of 76 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 4: the race. 77 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: So again, this is another one. 78 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 4: So I think by my account right now, Republicans have 79 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 4: at least a fifty two to forty eight majority. That 80 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 4: means they flipped West Virginia, which we knew, they flipped Ohio, 81 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 4: and they flipped Montana. 82 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: Those were the ones that we expected. 83 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 4: More they flip Pennsylvania, like I expect that they will 84 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 4: that's fifty three, So Nevada, maybe that could be fifty four. 85 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 3: Wow, well, Jessica, if a rising tide lifts all votes. 86 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 3: Carrie Lake sprung a leak somewhere, And I'm wondering what 87 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 3: you thought about this, Reuben Diego, the Democrat, on a 88 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 3: night like that, taking a lead over such a well 89 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 3: known Republican candidate, former TV news anchor, closely associated with 90 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. Where did she go wrong? 91 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: She was well known and that was her problem. 92 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 4: She came in with very high negatives from that twenty 93 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 4: twenty two gubernatorial race. Mitch McConnell gave a press conference 94 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 4: on Capitol Hillary earlier today. They asked him what his 95 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 4: takeaway was from the Senate races. He said, candidate quality matters. 96 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 4: That's why they feel like they got strong candidates there 97 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 4: in Pennsylvania with David McCormick, and races there in Montana 98 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,600 Speaker 4: as well. Carrie Lake was not a strong candidate. We 99 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,040 Speaker 4: knew this going in that she was a very polarizing figure. 100 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 4: She came in high negatives, was never really able to 101 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 4: overcome them, never really, you know, in that race for 102 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:47,359 Speaker 4: a governor. 103 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: She insulted sort of McCain voters and those swing voters. 104 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 4: There in Maricopa County that makes up over sixty percent 105 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:53,919 Speaker 4: of the vote. 106 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: Geygo ran a. 107 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 4: Very smart race. He was able to spend early on. 108 00:04:57,480 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 4: He had the spending advantage. He was able to introduce 109 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:01,919 Speaker 4: himsel Off there. Even in a state where he was 110 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 4: more progressive than the state's other senator, Mary Kelly, that 111 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 4: ran us more of a centrist, So he was able 112 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 4: to tell his story being raised in poverty by a 113 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 4: single mother going on to be in the Marines. So 114 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 4: I think that also we saw him Joe better with 115 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 4: the types of voters that Donald Trump was doing better. 116 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: With, both the Latino men and black men. So those 117 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: were the split ticket voters. 118 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 4: But also those independents broke against Kerry Lake, and I 119 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 4: think it's because she was I think she was sort 120 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 4: of the wrong candidate for the moment in Arizona. 121 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 2: Well, as we consider the idea of split ticketing, you 122 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 2: look at a state considering you follow gubernatorial races as well, 123 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 2: like North Carolina, which of course Donald Trump won by 124 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 2: a margin of about four points, are a little under that. 125 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 2: Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate for governor, won by fourteen 126 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 2: points in North Carolina, what's the takeaway there, Jessica. 127 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 4: Again, the candidates matter, and you had the lieutenant governor 128 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 4: there that Republicans, many of them knew early on, was 129 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 4: a very controversial candidate. And then you had a scandal 130 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 4: that came out about allegedly posting on a porn site 131 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 4: and talking about being a black Nazi. Republicans largely abandoned him. 132 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 4: He didn't have much of a campaign infrastructure to begin with. 133 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,839 Speaker 4: He was off air on advertising for the last two 134 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 4: months of the campaign basically. But I think also voters 135 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 4: do look at a vote for governor and a vote 136 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 4: for Senate very differently. Actually, in the last hundred years 137 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 4: there in North Carolina, they've only elected a Republican governor 138 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 4: three times, so they are. 139 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 1: Used to splitting their tickets. 140 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 4: And in fact, even as Trump carried the state in 141 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 4: twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty and Roy Cooper won 142 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 4: both times. 143 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: But actually, you. 144 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 4: Know, apart from the top of the ticket at the 145 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 4: presidential level, some nor North Carolina Democrats were. 146 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: Having a pretty good night, and I think that was 147 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 1: sort of Stein helping them. 148 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 4: They've broken the supermajority in the state legislature, they won 149 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 4: the attorney General's raised. Democrats have kept that seat, and 150 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 4: then they also won a Secretary of Public Instruction basically 151 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 4: the secretary of education there that was also with a 152 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 4: very controversial Republican candidate. 153 00:06:57,720 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 3: All Right, Jessica, I want to talk leadership with you 154 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 3: here now that we're looking at a red Senate here, 155 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 3: and I guess to your point, we could still add 156 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 3: a couple more to the list. There is a thought 157 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 3: with Donald Trump on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue 158 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 3: that this is not the race we thought it was 159 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 3: to replace Mitch McConnell, that Steve Danes could even be 160 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 3: drafted late in the game. Here, we're only a couple 161 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 3: of weeks out from this what's about to happen. 162 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 4: Danes did give an interview with Semaphore where he did 163 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 4: say again he would not be drafted. He was not 164 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 4: interested in doing this. I wouldn't be surprised to see 165 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 4: him in leadership in some position, especially after having a 166 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 4: very strong showing for Senate Republicans. 167 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: He was my dark horse, but he is hick. I said. 168 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 4: He gave that interview to Burgess ever there Somemophore last 169 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 4: week and said that he would not be there. 170 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: So we have the. 171 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 4: Two of the Johns, John Thune of South Dakota and 172 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 4: John Cornet of Texas. Now some they have had a 173 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 4: rockier relationship with Trump. 174 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: You know. Rick Scott of Florida has also thrown his 175 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: name in there. Now. 176 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 4: He had a bigger than expected victory after having sort 177 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 4: of very narrow winds for governor and for Senate. 178 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 1: But he also had a very contrab Marshall tenure. 179 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 4: At the top of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 180 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 4: twenty twenty two when they actually lost a seat. So 181 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 4: I think it's going to be a lot of jockeying 182 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 4: behind the scenes. I think probably still fun or corn 183 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 4: and have the inside slot. 184 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: Ben the gek. You said, is there another candidate that emerges? 185 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: Perhaps two? All right? 186 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: Jessica Taylor, the Cook Political Reports, Senate and Governor's Editor, 187 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us.