Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty.
Speaker 1: The NFL regular season may be over, but there is
Speaker 1: still plenty of stuff to talk about for wild Card weekend,
Speaker 1: and with me to talk about it all is Matt Perrault,
Speaker 1: a host of Pushing the Odds on sp Nation Radio
Speaker 1: and The Better Network and as I've mentioned often, one
Speaker 1: of my favorite podcasts, covering the Number where they break
Speaker 1: down some of the action in sports books from the
Speaker 1: previous weekend. You can find them on Twitter at sports
Speaker 1: Talk Matt. Matt, thanks for coming on the show. How's
Speaker 1: it going.
Speaker 2: I really appreciate the invite coming back. This is a
Speaker 2: lot of fun. I always great to talk to a
Speaker 2: fellow New England or even though you're not really from
Speaker 2: New England but you live there now, so but thanks Dan,
Speaker 2: I really appreciate the invite.
Speaker 1: I'm so impressed that you remember my background, Matt, because
Speaker 1: I feel like you would just come on. You talk
Speaker 1: so much on someone. Well, you you're happy, you're out
Speaker 1: in Vegas. What's the temperature right now?
Speaker 2: Oh? It's cold, man. It's it's been forty five degrees
Speaker 2: for pretty much the whole week, so it's been lows
Speaker 2: in the upper thirties and flow forties. It's just disgusting,
Speaker 2: to be quite honest. But we're seeing the light on
Speaker 2: the end of the tunnel. It's the sixties are only
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks away, so we're almost we're almost
Speaker 2: through our winter.
Speaker 1: Well, when you're in low forties, as you know, you're
Speaker 1: pretty much in my summer at that point. So but
Speaker 1: you know, and that could have an impact on this
Speaker 1: weekend's game with your Pats, which we'll talk about. But Matt,
Speaker 1: I've been thinking about something. In addition to sports betting,
Speaker 1: I do a lot of fantasy sports. Right when we
Speaker 1: started doing this podcast earlier this season, I had to
Speaker 1: let some of my fantasy baseball podcasting duties go, and
Speaker 1: a few listeners they kept bugging me about sports gambling, right,
Speaker 1: they hadn't done it before. They didn't get it is
Speaker 1: really enjoyable. I was thinking about it the other night
Speaker 1: because I was watching and I know you were watching
Speaker 1: because I follow on Twitter, so I saw you were
Speaker 1: tweeting right at the time the Orange Bowl with Florida
Speaker 1: and Virginia. Now, I don't go crazy with college football betting.
Speaker 1: I'm too focused on the NFL during the season because
Speaker 1: fantasy and everything. But buddy of mine is from Florida,
Speaker 1: went to Florida and for fun, he and I have
Speaker 1: just this joint fun. Nothing where I'm gonna lose my
Speaker 1: house or anything, but we do small bets so we
Speaker 1: could have fun. So he texted me midgame said he
Speaker 1: wanted to throw some on the Gators who were laying fourteen.
Speaker 1: I believe it was at halftime. So we did, and
Speaker 1: we lost that bet. But I think all you need
Speaker 1: to do is look at the last few minutes of
Speaker 1: that game for anyone in the world to see exactly
Speaker 1: what it means to be a sports better.
Speaker 2: Right. Yeah, and look, and welcome to New Hampshire, by
Speaker 2: the way, that's really fun to see another state in
Speaker 2: New England. Rhde Island now in New England in New
Speaker 2: Hampshire now were both legal with mobile wagering and whatnot.
Speaker 2: So that's awesome. And look, I talk about this on
Speaker 2: my show a lot. I talk about this in Covering
Speaker 2: the Number with Patrick Everson, who I co hosted with
Speaker 2: from Covers Dot com and one of the things that
Speaker 2: I think everyone has to recognize and realize what's coming
Speaker 2: podcast like this, that we're not going to be in
Speaker 2: the bomb throwing media world anymore. Very soon, we're gonna
Speaker 2: be in information. We're going to be in an actual
Speaker 2: intellectual dialogue. And I tip of the cap goes to
Speaker 2: Daily Fantasy because it started all of this really where
Speaker 2: we start looking at the game and we're not worried
Speaker 2: about what some dude behind a microphone is blasting some
Speaker 2: player for being where he was two days before, or
Speaker 2: you know, hey, did you know that Baker Mayfield was
Speaker 2: out in Austin two days after the year was over.
Speaker 2: It's like, oh my gosh, he's a twenty four year
Speaker 2: old guy. He has no responsibilities, he's a millionaire. Why
Speaker 2: can't he be out drinking? Who cares? So Like that
Speaker 2: crap is going away and we're actually gonna have real
Speaker 2: fun conversations. And by the way, Steve Leevy deserves a
Speaker 2: huge tip of the cap as well for pointing it
Speaker 2: out that, hey, by the way, this kick a field
Speaker 2: goal that pushed it from fourteen and a half where
Speaker 2: I was I was under I was at min was
Speaker 2: fourteen and a half for Florida, push it to fifteen,
Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden, here comes this crazy
Speaker 2: drive for Virginia and they go down the field in
Speaker 2: like thirty five seconds and score a touchdown to cover.
Speaker 2: I mean, those are all conversations that at some point
Speaker 2: we're gonna have live lines. Like I've mentioned this before.
Speaker 2: I don't know if this podcast or others, but de
Speaker 2: Zone does this right now with bet MGM, speaking of
Speaker 2: the sponsor of this podcast, they run live odds on
Speaker 2: their big fights on a ticker underneath the screen. You'll
Speaker 2: see live odds minus four hundred were round three, round four,
Speaker 2: whatever it is. That's going to be part of us
Speaker 2: every day, and the broadcasters are going to have to
Speaker 2: be educated enough to have that conversation of where the
Speaker 2: line is, or where the line was, or where the
Speaker 2: public was. And once once we get more than half
Speaker 2: the states on board Fox, Fox will go first because
Speaker 2: of Fox Bet clearly, but it'll be universal. ESPN is
Speaker 2: going to have it with Caesars and whatnot. We're going
Speaker 2: to have this acceptance where Steve Levy's conversations during the
Speaker 2: game will not be so notable, even though it really
Speaker 2: was when the game was going on.
Speaker 1: It really kind of annoys me at this point when
Speaker 1: there are these games that are so clearly out of
Speaker 1: reach that the only people who are really watching at
Speaker 1: that point are people who have bet on the game,
Speaker 1: and announcers don't even remotely mention it, you know what
Speaker 1: I mean. Like at least you know, the Levy was
Speaker 1: all over it, which is great, but you know, at
Speaker 1: this point, I feel like it's got to become more complace.
Speaker 1: It's going to obviously, you know, as you said, is
Speaker 1: more states do it.
Speaker 2: But just take Cincinnati Boston College in your back of
Speaker 2: the in your neck of the woods. So I believe
Speaker 2: the total in that game was like forty five, I
Speaker 2: think somewhere in that range, and it was thirty eight.
Speaker 2: Thirty six was the final. That's a blowout. Joe, who's
Speaker 2: watching the fourth quarter of a bowl game, the Birmingham
Speaker 2: Bowl between a six and six BC and an eleven
Speaker 2: and three Cincinnati BC Eagle graduates in Cincinnati graduates and
Speaker 2: everyone who bet the game. So like, if you're a
Speaker 2: if you're a broadcaster, you have to be this is
Speaker 2: you know, I'm with you getting pissed off about this
Speaker 2: because it is ridiculous in the fourth quarter. You should
Speaker 2: be talking about the number. Hey, the total was this,
Speaker 2: Here's many points have been scored. Will we see the
Speaker 2: undercome through here? Or could this drive me in the
Speaker 2: over or whatever? Because nobody's watching that Bowl game unless
Speaker 2: they have money on it.
Speaker 1: Just one hundred percent, period, one hundred percent good, All right, good.
Speaker 1: I know I got a stop on this big tangent start,
Speaker 1: but I did want to talk about that because it
Speaker 1: struck out to me that, you know, people are freaking
Speaker 1: out over whether they're going to call back the touchdown
Speaker 1: on that was a pass to the offensive line right
Speaker 1: in a completely meaningless game and has such huge implications.
Speaker 1: I just think frankly that that's part of what's making
Speaker 1: the sports betting great as it becomes, you know, more
Speaker 1: widespread and becomes legal in each of the states. But
Speaker 1: let's get into this weekend's action. Before we do, let
Speaker 1: us quickly review last week as we always do, because
Speaker 1: I personally kind of had an Orange Bowl Florida Gators
Speaker 1: laying fourteen kind of week. I lost on the Falcons
Speaker 1: and the Bucks under forty eight because of a last
Speaker 1: second field goal tied it up, and then Jameis Winston
Speaker 1: threw a pick on the first plane overtime. Just win
Speaker 1: by a field goal in overtime, and we're good. I
Speaker 1: lost on the Broncos leanth three and a half to
Speaker 1: the Raiders because the Broncos decided to try a completely
Speaker 1: unnecessary fifty seven yard field goal instead of punting in
Speaker 1: a game they were otherwise sure to win. And I
Speaker 1: lost the Ravens and the Steelers under thirty seven because
Speaker 1: of a last minute safety. Now, to be fair, I
Speaker 1: actually had that in real life at thirty eight, so
Speaker 1: I push. But whatever. Even my prop bet where I
Speaker 1: won the Christian McCaffrey over fifty receiving yards, but that
Speaker 1: was at minus two fifty and as I said, place
Speaker 1: a little bit on the over seventy five receiving yards
Speaker 1: and even money, and that was a lot. So it
Speaker 1: was gambling at its finest. Our guest Sean Corner. He
Speaker 1: hit on the Bengals and the Browns over forty three
Speaker 1: and a half. He missed on the Seahawks, getting three
Speaker 1: and a half from the nine Ers. He won on
Speaker 1: his top prop bet of Travis Homer over forty one
Speaker 1: and a half yards, And for his other bet, he
Speaker 1: said he'd probably pop an in game bet on the
Speaker 1: Chargers over the Chiefs, depending on the line. My guess
Speaker 1: is he hit it at the peak when it was
Speaker 1: Chargers plus eleven and a half like I did. So
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna give him credit for that. Now, as
Speaker 1: everybody pretty much knows, we start with pick six, where
Speaker 1: we each give our three best bets of the weekend.
Speaker 1: There are only four games this weekend. It's not easy,
Speaker 1: but we're gonna do our best. So Matt, get us
Speaker 1: started here. What's your first pick?
Speaker 2: Okay, So I'm gonna start with the first game of
Speaker 2: the day on Saturday, and that's gonna be Buffalo at Houston.
Speaker 2: And this game is incredibly hard for me because I
Speaker 2: either have to trust Josh Allen or trust Bill O'Brien,
Speaker 2: and that's really hard to do. So you're talking about
Speaker 2: a Houston team that's at home, a Buffalo team that
Speaker 2: I have been betting against and losing on, and i'd
Speaker 2: been wrong. I've been going to the well consistently here
Speaker 2: against when it comes to the Bills, I guess, except
Speaker 2: against the Patriots. But I've been looking at this Buffalo
Speaker 2: Bills team and they play incredibly hard. I just don't
Speaker 2: think Josh Allen can throw the football. And I think
Speaker 2: JJ watt coming back is pretty significant from a pass
Speaker 2: rushing perspective because receivers coming back from injury or running
Speaker 2: backs coming back from injury have to get in sync
Speaker 2: with a quarterback. It's not that hard for a defensive
Speaker 2: lineman to pin his ears back on third down and
Speaker 2: go get the quarterback. It's kind of just in their
Speaker 2: nature to go and do it. So while his stamina
Speaker 2: might not be up in the fourth quarter, the game
Speaker 2: might be over by the time the fourth quarter rolls around.
Speaker 2: So I really think if you can get this under three,
Speaker 2: and currently, I mean here in Vegas, it looks like
Speaker 2: it's two and a half across the board at most books,
Speaker 2: I think the home team here. I know road Dogs
Speaker 2: have been so profitable this year, but this is still
Speaker 2: the postseason. It's the playoffs. I'm gonna lay two two
Speaker 2: and a half on Houston and I'm gonna take the
Speaker 2: Texans to wind up winning and knock it out the Bills.
Speaker 1: Man, I gotta be honest, I don't I don't feel
Speaker 1: I kind of think the Bills are gonna win this game.
Speaker 1: I really do. I kind of do I don't. I
Speaker 1: don't have a strong feeling bad it. You raise good points.
Speaker 1: I mean rookie quarterbacks or not rookie quarterbacks, but quarterbacks
Speaker 1: making their first start in the playoffs, you just can't
Speaker 1: trust them whatsoever. I don't think Watt's gonna have a
Speaker 1: huge impact in this game. Just look you should. You
Speaker 1: can't return from a torn pack in this amount of time,
Speaker 1: like you just can't. I can't imagine that he's gonna
Speaker 1: be out there playing that many snaps. I feel like
Speaker 1: it's got to be more of a morale type of
Speaker 1: thing at this point. I mean, I know he's he's.
Speaker 2: Like to see him around type of guy, though. I mean,
Speaker 2: do you think J. J. Watt comes back from morale?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: No, I think he wants to.
Speaker 2: He's gonna want to.
Speaker 1: Play, I get it. I think he wants to play, man.
Speaker 1: But that's the other thing, man is it does not
Speaker 1: sound like Will Fuller is going to play in this game,
Speaker 1: you know whoever. I think James Palmer tweeted out that
Speaker 1: he thinks it's a long shot. So that's a big
Speaker 1: deal for me, sort of with them stretching the field now,
Speaker 1: I don't really know necessarily who's gonna win. But I'm
Speaker 1: a little worried about the Texans coming out. I think
Speaker 1: if forced to, I think the Bills are gonna win.
Speaker 1: But it does sort of lead into my first pick,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna actually do a two team teaser for
Speaker 1: my lost pick. Yeah, so it's going to be part
Speaker 1: of this game, which is I'm gonna tease the Bills
Speaker 1: up from plus two and a half to plus eight
Speaker 1: and a half, and I'm gonna tease the Saints down
Speaker 1: from laying seven and a half right now to one
Speaker 1: and a half. So I think whatever way this Bill's
Speaker 1: game goes, I don't see it as being the Texans
Speaker 1: blowing them out. I just don't really think that they
Speaker 1: have that capacity to do it right now without Fuller,
Speaker 1: right because the Bill's pass defense is very, very good,
Speaker 1: especially with there's no Will Fuller. They're exploitable on the ground.
Speaker 1: But the Texans, you know, as good as Carls Hide
Speaker 1: and you know Duke Johnson whatever were this season, they're
Speaker 1: not dominant. They can't just roll out there and crush
Speaker 1: them in this game. And like you said, I don't
Speaker 1: trust Bill O'Brien. I certainly have more faith in the
Speaker 1: UH in the Bills coaching staff, and look, I think
Speaker 1: that you know, it depends if Watt is there and
Speaker 1: he shores up that run defense and he does play
Speaker 1: a lot of Stuff's fine, that might change things. But
Speaker 1: you know, the Texans are beatable through the air. Their
Speaker 1: run defense, certainly without Wat has taken a hit. So
Speaker 1: either way, the Bills the Bills. As we talk, I think,
Speaker 1: by the way, you selling yourself short because the last
Speaker 1: time you were on I think it was an early
Speaker 1: look at the lines. But you love the Ravens beating
Speaker 1: the Bills and covering, which they did in that game,
Speaker 1: and you said that then you were fading them the
Speaker 1: whole time. I think that's right. But they never get
Speaker 1: blown out. They did that one game against the Eagles, right,
Speaker 1: but against the Ravens I lost by seven. Against the Pats,
Speaker 1: I lost by seven and six. So I think either
Speaker 1: way they'll keep it close. And with the Saints, look,
Speaker 1: they may win this game by twenty for all I know,
Speaker 1: but it's a big number. It's easy for a backdoor cover.
Speaker 1: I cannot imagine they lose this game. Though, So if
Speaker 1: I'm going to get it at underfield goal here at
Speaker 1: a point and a half, essentially pick them. I'm all
Speaker 1: over that. The offense is explosive right now. You know
Speaker 1: to the secondary for the Vikings is terrible. They're not
Speaker 1: gonna be able to stop Michael Thomas. Trake On Smith
Speaker 1: is playing better, and you know the Vikings offense, I
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, you know, you've got Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: in a primetime game. But you know Dalvin Cook he
Speaker 1: is coming back here, but one shot at the shoulder
Speaker 1: he could be out for the rest of the game. Cousins,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not sure he's gonna have too much
Speaker 1: success through the air. Saints have Marshau Lanimore and now
Speaker 1: Janoris Jenkins. That place is going to be banana if
Speaker 1: there's a if there's a play that is questionable. I
Speaker 1: can't see how the refs are gonna go against the
Speaker 1: Saints hum and everything that's happened. So I think the
Speaker 1: Saints are gonna win this game. I'm not sure by
Speaker 1: how much. And I don't think the Bills are gonna
Speaker 1: get blown out. So my bet the only bet high places,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned I'm in New Hampshire DraftKings is here
Speaker 1: is that two team teaser with the Bills up from
Speaker 1: plus two and a half to plus eight and a half,
Speaker 1: with the Saints down from lank seven and a half
Speaker 1: to laying one and a half.
Speaker 2: Look, you're speaking my language here because I am a
Speaker 2: massive proponent of two team teasers in the NFL. I
Speaker 2: think if I can play the around with the line,
Speaker 2: these lines, in particular late in the year where the
Speaker 2: lines is so sharp, the only thing, just from a
Speaker 2: casual better perspective that we have to point out here
Speaker 2: you aren't gonna lay one ten to win one hundred. Here,
Speaker 2: you're gonna lay one forty okay, son one hundred and
Speaker 2: forty bucks down to win one hundred. So that's the
Speaker 2: way the books protect themselves, and it gives you an idea.
Speaker 2: That's how the books feel about two team teasers. And
Speaker 2: I have had long conversations about book makers here in
Speaker 2: Las Vegas, and they freaking hate these things. These things
Speaker 2: hurt them because if you're an educated person with the NFL,
Speaker 2: and you clearly are, you know how to move these
Speaker 2: lines and manipulate the games around. And if you're okay
Speaker 2: with laying one hundred and forty bucks to win one hundred,
Speaker 2: you have a chance to really get after it here, because,
Speaker 2: like you mentioned, the chances of the Vikings winning this
Speaker 2: game outright, which would blow your teaser up, highly unlikely.
Speaker 2: So that's the only hook to get to worry about
Speaker 2: a little bit. But the line being over a touchdown
Speaker 2: opened at eight, now seven and a half in maybe
Speaker 2: seven a game kicks off. But it gives you an
Speaker 2: idea as to how the books feel about the Vikings
Speaker 2: and Kirk Cousins going to the Dome to beat the Vikings.
Speaker 2: So sorry to beat the Saints. So all you gotta
Speaker 2: do is, hey, New Orleans, just win, win the game,
Speaker 2: and you're good. I love your play here a lot
Speaker 2: in Buffalo, keeping it close unless Josh Allen throws three picks,
Speaker 2: which could happen by a possibility, Okay, which can happen
Speaker 2: if he becomes a turnover machine in his first playoff game. Okay,
Speaker 2: I mean I don't like Josh Allen. I'm on the record.
Speaker 2: I don't think he hit the broadside of a barn.
Speaker 2: I think he has zero touch. I think every time
Speaker 2: he throws the ball up in the air, you never
Speaker 2: know where its going. Can He's got a cannon for
Speaker 2: an arm, so you throw the ball seventy yards. He
Speaker 2: just has no idea where the thing's going when he
Speaker 2: throws it, So I'm a little I'm concerned about that
Speaker 2: side of it only if he is turning the ball over.
Speaker 2: But if he doesn't and he just hands the ball off,
Speaker 2: they can lose the game by a touchdown and you're
Speaker 2: in the clear. So I don't hate your play at all,
Speaker 2: I really do. And then this is a by the way,
Speaker 2: this is a huge teaser weekend. This is these lines
Speaker 2: are all ripe to be teased.
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I completely agree. And yeah to your point, yeah,
Speaker 1: I got it. You know, minus one forty three. I'm
Speaker 1: not getting a deal or anything like that, but it
Speaker 1: is it is a line that I feel relatively confident.
Speaker 1: And again, I just you know, I have faith in
Speaker 1: the Bills at least keeping it close. I don't know
Speaker 1: if they're going to win the game or even if
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to cover that line, but I
Speaker 1: do feel confident that they're going to be able to
Speaker 1: cover the eight and a half. All right, let's go
Speaker 1: to your second pick. What do you got?
Speaker 2: All right, so I'm going to go to a weather game.
Speaker 2: And you mentioned it a little earlier, Tennessee, New England
Speaker 2: in Foxborough where the line is going up. Okay, this
Speaker 2: has been really interesting for me to watch this, So
Speaker 2: I would say weight on this number until kick to
Speaker 2: see how high it winds up going. But over the
Speaker 2: total for the Titans in the Pats opened at forty
Speaker 2: one and a half. It's been bet up to forty
Speaker 2: four and a half, forty five. I've seen it may
Speaker 2: go over forty five. Let it keep going up, and
Speaker 2: then I'm saying bet the under here, and I just
Speaker 2: this is my thing about the Titans. The Titans are
Speaker 2: going to try to run the football. The Patriots know
Speaker 2: Ryan Tannehill, They've played Ryan Tannehill. This Patriots defense played
Speaker 2: pathetically bad against the Dolphins. Stefan Gilmour got lit up
Speaker 2: by DeVante Parker, they got roasted in the media. If
Speaker 2: the Patriots defense is not ferocious in this game, I
Speaker 2: will be absolutely shocked. I don't think the Titans are
Speaker 2: going to score much. I think they might get to twenty.
Speaker 2: I think they're probably in the teens, like seventeen. And
Speaker 2: we know the Patriot offense is a massive pain. It's
Speaker 2: a huge problem. Brady's a problem right now with this
Speaker 2: tennis elbow Edelman's banged up and not healthy. They don't
Speaker 2: have really a wide receiver worth talking about other than
Speaker 2: Julian Lleman, who is a slot receiver. They don't have
Speaker 2: a tight end. Their running game with Sony Michelle has
Speaker 2: hit or missed. They've given the ball Direx Burkhead a
Speaker 2: ton because he breaks tackles and Sony Michelle does not.
Speaker 2: And if you're not running the football, it limits Jane's
Speaker 2: White's ability because he's a he's a you know, a
Speaker 2: change of pace guy in a screen weapon, and if
Speaker 2: you'ren't running the football well enough, then it really limits
Speaker 2: what he can do. So the Patriots are going to
Speaker 2: have a tough time scoring in this Titans defense. And
Speaker 2: that's why I have toyed with the idea of the Patriots,
Speaker 2: you know, of taking the points here at five and
Speaker 2: a half or five for Tennessee. But I think the
Speaker 2: under is a stronger play here in this game. And
Speaker 2: there could be rain in cold temperatures in Foxborough, and
Speaker 2: nobody likes tackling anybody in the rain, so that makes
Speaker 2: me a little afraid. But more likely, not a lot
Speaker 2: of passing going on between the Titans and the Patriots,
Speaker 2: so I'll play the under.
Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent agree. You know, I talk about
Speaker 1: this often usually what I do with our guests, I say, hey,
Speaker 1: just give me your picks, you know, I don't know,
Speaker 1: you know, an hour or two in advance, so you
Speaker 1: can get it. Matt. Matt was pretty busy. He gave
Speaker 1: me his picks three seconds in advance before he came
Speaker 1: out the way.
Speaker 2: I'm stealing one of your plays.
Speaker 1: And he did steal one of my plays. So I
Speaker 1: could either make something up, but you know what, it's
Speaker 1: a short week, all right, we're gonna go with this.
Speaker 1: This also would have been one of my players. I
Speaker 1: completely agree with you here. I mean you look at
Speaker 1: the I mean, Brian Tennell is playing great, right he
Speaker 1: absolutely is playing really really well right now. A lot
Speaker 1: of it goes to AJ Brown. Derrick Henry is absolutely dominant.
Speaker 1: But you've got the Patriots, and you know exactly what
Speaker 1: they're gonna do in this game defensively after last week, right,
Speaker 1: they're gonna stack the box to stop Henry. They're gonna
Speaker 1: double Brown, okay, and then they're gonna put Gilmour and Davis.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna do the thing. Where Gilmore, they're just gonna,
Speaker 1: you know, with Parker, they're gonna do the thing where
Speaker 1: they put two guys on the best receiver and then
Speaker 1: put Gilmore probably on Corey Davis or whatever. And so
Speaker 1: you know, from their defense, given the weather, I think
Speaker 1: they're really gonna be able to slow down the Titans.
Speaker 1: And on the other side, yeah, look, the problem is
Speaker 1: the Titans defense really good against the runs, so it's
Speaker 1: gonna be really difficult I think for the Pats to
Speaker 1: get going there now. They're exploitable in the secondary, but
Speaker 1: the Pats just don't have it right now.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, you're you're a fan, obviously, I don't
Speaker 1: know what you think if this is the end of Brady,
Speaker 1: whether or not he's battling through in whether it's just
Speaker 1: the fact that the receivers other than Edelman are way
Speaker 1: too raw and young and everything like that, whatever it is,
Speaker 1: they don't have the offense right now to exploit that
Speaker 1: deficiency in the Titans defense, particularly when you go with
Speaker 1: the weather that's gonna come. Like you said, so for me,
Speaker 1: you know what Dorriy Jackson's coming back to. I agree
Speaker 1: with you, man, I completely agree on this play. I
Speaker 1: have it as well. I'm surprised. I can't believe it's
Speaker 1: gone up three points since open. It's crazy. I guess
Speaker 1: people were hammering the over there. But I completely agree
Speaker 1: with you. I'm on board for my second pick. I'll
Speaker 1: leave that as my third pick. This one is another
Speaker 1: under for me, and that's the Seahawks and the Eagles
Speaker 1: under forty five and a half. I feel like, frankly,
Speaker 1: you could go with a narrative either way on this game.
Speaker 1: You like, oh, I really want to go over. You know,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks defense kind of stinks. Clowney is going to
Speaker 1: be out. They don't pressure the quarterback. They're not good
Speaker 1: against pass catching running backs, they're not good against tight ends.
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is playing great, and the Eagles have no secondary,
Speaker 1: and you know, once Wilson was Wilson in the second
Speaker 1: half against the forty nine ers. Blah blah blah. I
Speaker 1: feel like you could easily make that narrative. But I'm
Speaker 1: going the other way because you know, we know what
Speaker 1: Brian Schottenheimer is at this point. I don't think that
Speaker 1: six injured running backs and obvious success passing the ball
Speaker 1: against an exploitable secondary is gonna change what he does.
Speaker 1: He's gonna stick with the ground game. He's gonna run
Speaker 1: at a ton, he's gonna eat time off the clock.
Speaker 1: And with the Eagles, it's just a different game here
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. I don't think whether or not Miles
Speaker 1: Sanders and zach ar Is actually play. I don't think
Speaker 1: either one is going to be able to be effective
Speaker 1: given their injury. Dallas Goddard, Greg Ward, Jordan Howard. I
Speaker 1: just don't see this as being the type of offense
Speaker 1: it's gonna be able to put up a ton of
Speaker 1: points in the playoffs. Again, it's gonna be cold in
Speaker 1: a game like this. I see this as being one
Speaker 1: of these draged out, hard hitting affairs where it's gonna
Speaker 1: kind of keep the game closed throughout, and I think
Speaker 1: in the end it's gonna wind up being under forty
Speaker 1: five and a half. So that's my second pick here.
Speaker 1: I don't know how you feel about that.
Speaker 2: I like it because I think the key to this
Speaker 2: game and this is kind of going right and kind
Speaker 2: of into my third pick, because my third pick is
Speaker 2: phil Ladelphia plus one and a half at home to
Speaker 2: beat the Seals, because I don't think the Seahawks can
Speaker 2: run the football, and they've got so many injuries. I
Speaker 2: think Philadelphia is going to try to play ball control.
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna run the football straight down the
Speaker 2: throats for the Seattle Seahawks, and I think that's their key.
Speaker 2: Boston Scott on the edge shorten this game. I mean,
Speaker 2: just get a win, don't worry about what you're doing.
Speaker 2: Just get in and get out. And I just think
Speaker 2: there are injuries on both sides that are pretty significant,
Speaker 2: but I think Philadelphia's defense is the biggest reason why
Speaker 2: I like this game for the Eagles to win. And
Speaker 2: I just I know, Russell Wilson is Russell Wilson, I
Speaker 2: get it. I'm just not I haven't been in love
Speaker 2: with this team, even with a seven and one record
Speaker 2: on the road. I just haven't really been in love
Speaker 2: with this Seattle Seahawks team. And maybe I'm thinking about
Speaker 2: the Rams game too much, but I mean, they already
Speaker 2: played once and they beat the Eagles once, and I
Speaker 2: think it's really hard to beat a team twice in
Speaker 2: the same year, but on the same field, and that
Speaker 2: game was seventeen to nine, So that kind of fits
Speaker 2: right into what you're talking about about a low scoring
Speaker 2: defensive battle between Philadelphia and Seattle. So I love that play.
Speaker 2: I like the under a lot. I just think the
Speaker 2: Philadelphia Eagles right now at home. This is a coaching
Speaker 2: staff that has had a lot of pressure on them.
Speaker 2: It's a huge game for Carson Wentz. He played incredibly
Speaker 2: well last week. I just think this is a game
Speaker 2: protecting the home field in the weather. I just don't
Speaker 2: see Seattle, even with their seven to one road record,
Speaker 2: even with beating the Eagles earlier in the year in Philly.
Speaker 2: I like Philadelphia plus one and a half.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks are not a very good football team, man Like,
Speaker 1: They're just not. It's all Russell Wilson pulling crazy stuff,
Speaker 1: you know, out out of his hat. And I think
Speaker 1: what you're gonna see in this game is, for the
Speaker 1: most part, you're gonna see conservative, but you're gonna see
Speaker 1: one or two crazy, smart, brilliant, you know, trick plays
Speaker 1: that Peterson's going to pull out that are going to
Speaker 1: be the difference while the Seahawks are just running instead
Speaker 1: of they're much more effective if they just let Wilson
Speaker 1: go and let him be what he can be. But
Speaker 1: they don't like to do that. So yeah, if i'm
Speaker 1: forced to pick a side in this game, I would
Speaker 1: take the Eagles, but overall my preferred play is the
Speaker 1: under there, so let's just recap my third pick. By
Speaker 1: the way, I'm not gonna force one because I don't
Speaker 1: love anything else here, So we're both just jumping on
Speaker 1: the Patriots and the Titans under forty four and a half,
Speaker 1: so we're both taking that one. I'm also doing the
Speaker 1: two team teaser with the Bills getting eight and a
Speaker 1: half and the Saints laying one and a half. And
Speaker 1: my other pick, sorry, is the Seahawks and the Eagles
Speaker 1: under forty five and a half. You are also jumping
Speaker 1: on the Pats and the Titans under forty four and
Speaker 1: a half. You are going to take the Eagles getting
Speaker 1: one and a half, and you're gonna take the Texans
Speaker 1: laying two and a half. So we've got some fun
Speaker 1: stuff going on for this week. And now before we
Speaker 1: move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor
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Speaker 1: All right, So this is the point in the show
Speaker 1: where we ordinarily move to It's a Trap, where we
Speaker 1: list to one line that we're avoiding before we finish
Speaker 1: up with top prop, where we give our favorite player
Speaker 1: prop bet of the weekend. Now, Matt and I recorded
Speaker 1: both segments, but unfortunately we had a few technical issues
Speaker 1: and Matt's audio never came through. So he got a
Speaker 1: couple options here. We can ditch the segments entirely. I
Speaker 1: can try to impersonate Matt and make his picks, or
Speaker 1: I can just give you both our picks in regular
Speaker 1: Dan Harris talk. Because I already know Matt's picks, and
Speaker 1: because he has a grade A radio voice that I
Speaker 1: could never duplicate, I'm going with options C. So interestingly,
Speaker 1: for It's a Trap, Matt and I both went with
Speaker 1: the same game, but we had different angles on it.
Speaker 1: Matt was avoiding either side of the Pats laying five
Speaker 1: to the Titans. He is confident that the Pats are
Speaker 1: going to win the game, but he could see them
Speaker 1: putting it all together and winning by twenty or eking
Speaker 1: out a close win by only a field goal. In short,
Speaker 1: he does not feel confident that the Pats would cover
Speaker 1: the spread, but he does feel like they'll win, so
Speaker 1: he's just avoiding the spread on that game entirely. Now.
Speaker 1: As for me, if I like the Pats, I would
Speaker 1: be willing to lay the five points because I don't
Speaker 1: see them coming away with a close victory here. I
Speaker 1: think either you're going to see closer to a classic
Speaker 1: Patriot at home in New England weather against the rookie
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator type of dominant performance, or I think that
Speaker 1: the downfall is real and the Titans are going to
Speaker 1: pull this game out. In other words, I don't see
Speaker 1: this as a three point win for the Pats. I
Speaker 1: can see them putting it all together and winning big.
Speaker 1: Or I can see the Titans taking this game, which
Speaker 1: means that the line I'm avoiding is the Titans getting five.
Speaker 1: If you like the Titans, I just as soon take
Speaker 1: them on the money line. Or really, since Matt and
Speaker 1: I are both avoiding the spread in that game, just
Speaker 1: take the under and be done with it now. Oddly enough,
Speaker 1: Matt and I both stuck with that game. For our
Speaker 1: top prop, Matt had Ryan Tannehill under eighteen and a
Speaker 1: half completions at minus one ten. He views that as
Speaker 1: a game that with the rain forecasted in particular, the
Speaker 1: Titans are going to try to control the ball on
Speaker 1: the ground and not air it out. Considering that Tannehill
Speaker 1: does not throw that much even on a good day,
Speaker 1: I had no problem with it. As for me, I
Speaker 1: was taking Julian Edelman over sixty four and a half
Speaker 1: receiving yards at minus one on nine. Tom Brady just
Speaker 1: has very limited options in the passing game right now.
Speaker 1: You heard me talk earlier about how the Titan secondary
Speaker 1: is their weakness, but that the Pats can't really exploit
Speaker 1: that at the moment. But the one place that they
Speaker 1: can exploit that is in the slot where Edelman is
Speaker 1: going to go up against old friend Logan Ryan. The
Speaker 1: Pats know him well. He is terrible this year in coverage,
Speaker 1: one of the worst slot cornerbacks in the league. I
Speaker 1: see Edelman getting a ton of targets and easily passing
Speaker 1: the sixty four and a half yard receiving threshold. Honestly,
Speaker 1: I would probably bet this up to roughly seventy two
Speaker 1: to seventy three, So I'm going to be placing a
Speaker 1: pretty hefty bet on it over at DraftKings and that's
Speaker 1: what you missed again. Really sorry about the technical issues.
Speaker 1: Before we go, I want to say thanks again to
Speaker 1: the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download
Speaker 1: the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code
Speaker 1: Harris to get your risk free five hundred dollars bet.
Speaker 1: And don't forget to leave this review on Apple Podcasts
Speaker 1: or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to
Speaker 1: contest at betting per dot com to be entered into
Speaker 1: our Michael Thomas segned helmet giveaway. Good luck with your
Speaker 1: wagers this week, and everyone, we're gonna be back next
Speaker 1: week talking about the division