WEBVTT - Best NFL Wild Card Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 41) 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:13.280 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:16.120 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:18.360 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:21.000 The NFL regular season may be over, but there is 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:23.680 still plenty of stuff to talk about for wild Card weekend, 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:25.880 and with me to talk about it all is Matt Perrault, 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:28.320 a host of Pushing the Odds on sp Nation Radio 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:31.080 and The Better Network and as I've mentioned often, one 0:00:31.080 --> 0:00:33.639 of my favorite podcasts, covering the Number where they break 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.080 down some of the action in sports books from the 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:38.760 previous weekend. You can find them on Twitter at sports 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:40.760 Talk Matt. Matt, thanks for coming on the show. How's 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:41.040 it going. 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:43.440 I really appreciate the invite coming back. This is a 0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:44.879 lot of fun. I always great to talk to a 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:46.960 fellow New England or even though you're not really from 0:00:46.960 --> 0:00:49.239 New England but you live there now, so but thanks Dan, 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:50.280 I really appreciate the invite. 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:52.960 I'm so impressed that you remember my background, Matt, because 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:54.680 I feel like you would just come on. You talk 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:56.760 so much on someone. Well, you you're happy, you're out 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:58.560 in Vegas. What's the temperature right now? 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:01.600 Oh? It's cold, man. It's it's been forty five degrees 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:04.520 for pretty much the whole week, so it's been lows 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:07.720 in the upper thirties and flow forties. It's just disgusting, 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:10.760 to be quite honest. But we're seeing the light on 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:13.280 the end of the tunnel. It's the sixties are only 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:15.440 a couple of weeks away, so we're almost we're almost 0:01:15.440 --> 0:01:16.000 through our winter. 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:18.480 Well, when you're in low forties, as you know, you're 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:21.160 pretty much in my summer at that point. So but 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:23.319 you know, and that could have an impact on this 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:26.360 weekend's game with your Pats, which we'll talk about. But Matt, 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:28.839 I've been thinking about something. In addition to sports betting, 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.200 I do a lot of fantasy sports. Right when we 0:01:31.280 --> 0:01:34.400 started doing this podcast earlier this season, I had to 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:37.880 let some of my fantasy baseball podcasting duties go, and 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:40.840 a few listeners they kept bugging me about sports gambling, right, 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:42.680 they hadn't done it before. They didn't get it is 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:44.759 really enjoyable. I was thinking about it the other night 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:47.199 because I was watching and I know you were watching 0:01:47.240 --> 0:01:49.160 because I follow on Twitter, so I saw you were 0:01:49.200 --> 0:01:52.080 tweeting right at the time the Orange Bowl with Florida 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:56.320 and Virginia. Now, I don't go crazy with college football betting. 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:58.320 I'm too focused on the NFL during the season because 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:01.160 fantasy and everything. But buddy of mine is from Florida, 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:03.440 went to Florida and for fun, he and I have 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:05.880 just this joint fun. Nothing where I'm gonna lose my 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:07.840 house or anything, but we do small bets so we 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:10.200 could have fun. So he texted me midgame said he 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:12.240 wanted to throw some on the Gators who were laying fourteen. 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:14.000 I believe it was at halftime. So we did, and 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.160 we lost that bet. But I think all you need 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:18.200 to do is look at the last few minutes of 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:21.359 that game for anyone in the world to see exactly 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:23.160 what it means to be a sports better. 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:25.840 Right. Yeah, and look, and welcome to New Hampshire, by 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:28.200 the way, that's really fun to see another state in 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:30.240 New England. Rhde Island now in New England in New 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:32.880 Hampshire now were both legal with mobile wagering and whatnot. 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:35.720 So that's awesome. And look, I talk about this on 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:37.079 my show a lot. I talk about this in Covering 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:39.080 the Number with Patrick Everson, who I co hosted with 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:41.480 from Covers Dot com and one of the things that 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:44.680 I think everyone has to recognize and realize what's coming 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.200 podcast like this, that we're not going to be in 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:51.919 the bomb throwing media world anymore. Very soon, we're gonna 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:54.600 be in information. We're going to be in an actual 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:57.880 intellectual dialogue. And I tip of the cap goes to 0:02:57.960 --> 0:03:00.520 Daily Fantasy because it started all of this really where 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:02.320 we start looking at the game and we're not worried 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:05.320 about what some dude behind a microphone is blasting some 0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:08.040 player for being where he was two days before, or 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:10.320 you know, hey, did you know that Baker Mayfield was 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:12.919 out in Austin two days after the year was over. 0:03:12.960 --> 0:03:14.600 It's like, oh my gosh, he's a twenty four year 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:17.320 old guy. He has no responsibilities, he's a millionaire. Why 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:20.120 can't he be out drinking? Who cares? So Like that 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:23.720 crap is going away and we're actually gonna have real 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:26.320 fun conversations. And by the way, Steve Leevy deserves a 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:29.040 huge tip of the cap as well for pointing it 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:32.000 out that, hey, by the way, this kick a field 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:33.839 goal that pushed it from fourteen and a half where 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:35.400 I was I was under I was at min was 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:37.720 fourteen and a half for Florida, push it to fifteen, 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:40.040 and then all of a sudden, here comes this crazy 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:42.080 drive for Virginia and they go down the field in 0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:44.640 like thirty five seconds and score a touchdown to cover. 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:47.680 I mean, those are all conversations that at some point 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:50.840 we're gonna have live lines. Like I've mentioned this before. 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:52.400 I don't know if this podcast or others, but de 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:54.800 Zone does this right now with bet MGM, speaking of 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:57.440 the sponsor of this podcast, they run live odds on 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:00.240 their big fights on a ticker underneath the screen. You'll 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:03.920 see live odds minus four hundred were round three, round four, 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:06.240 whatever it is. That's going to be part of us 0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:08.960 every day, and the broadcasters are going to have to 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:12.240 be educated enough to have that conversation of where the 0:04:12.240 --> 0:04:14.600 line is, or where the line was, or where the 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:18.080 public was. And once once we get more than half 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:21.400 the states on board Fox, Fox will go first because 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:24.400 of Fox Bet clearly, but it'll be universal. ESPN is 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:26.359 going to have it with Caesars and whatnot. We're going 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:29.480 to have this acceptance where Steve Levy's conversations during the 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.960 game will not be so notable, even though it really 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:34.480 was when the game was going on. 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:36.840 It really kind of annoys me at this point when 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:38.960 there are these games that are so clearly out of 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:41.320 reach that the only people who are really watching at 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:43.719 that point are people who have bet on the game, 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:46.800 and announcers don't even remotely mention it, you know what 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:48.719 I mean. Like at least you know, the Levy was 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:51.240 all over it, which is great, but you know, at 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:53.600 this point, I feel like it's got to become more complace. 0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:55.880 It's going to obviously, you know, as you said, is 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:56.480 more states do it. 0:04:56.560 --> 0:05:00.680 But just take Cincinnati Boston College in your back of 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:03.760 the in your neck of the woods. So I believe 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:06.320 the total in that game was like forty five, I 0:05:06.360 --> 0:05:09.400 think somewhere in that range, and it was thirty eight. 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:12.239 Thirty six was the final. That's a blowout. Joe, who's 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:15.360 watching the fourth quarter of a bowl game, the Birmingham 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:18.320 Bowl between a six and six BC and an eleven 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:22.640 and three Cincinnati BC Eagle graduates in Cincinnati graduates and 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:25.159 everyone who bet the game. So like, if you're a 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:27.520 if you're a broadcaster, you have to be this is 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:28.960 you know, I'm with you getting pissed off about this 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.960 because it is ridiculous in the fourth quarter. You should 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:34.200 be talking about the number. Hey, the total was this, 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:36.760 Here's many points have been scored. Will we see the 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:39.359 undercome through here? Or could this drive me in the 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:43.200 over or whatever? Because nobody's watching that Bowl game unless 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:44.000 they have money on it. 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:47.720 Just one hundred percent, period, one hundred percent good, All right, good. 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:49.600 I know I got a stop on this big tangent start, 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:51.200 but I did want to talk about that because it 0:05:51.320 --> 0:05:53.239 struck out to me that, you know, people are freaking 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.640 out over whether they're going to call back the touchdown 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:57.960 on that was a pass to the offensive line right 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:01.600 in a completely meaningless game and has such huge implications. 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:04.000 I just think frankly that that's part of what's making 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:07.039 the sports betting great as it becomes, you know, more 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:09.919 widespread and becomes legal in each of the states. But 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:13.000 let's get into this weekend's action. Before we do, let 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:15.159 us quickly review last week as we always do, because 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:18.159 I personally kind of had an Orange Bowl Florida Gators 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:21.000 laying fourteen kind of week. I lost on the Falcons 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:23.279 and the Bucks under forty eight because of a last 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:25.919 second field goal tied it up, and then Jameis Winston 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:28.400 threw a pick on the first plane overtime. Just win 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:30.520 by a field goal in overtime, and we're good. I 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:32.359 lost on the Broncos leanth three and a half to 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:35.039 the Raiders because the Broncos decided to try a completely 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:37.919 unnecessary fifty seven yard field goal instead of punting in 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:39.960 a game they were otherwise sure to win. And I 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:42.640 lost the Ravens and the Steelers under thirty seven because 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:44.720 of a last minute safety. Now, to be fair, I 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:46.640 actually had that in real life at thirty eight, so 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:49.159 I push. But whatever. Even my prop bet where I 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:51.760 won the Christian McCaffrey over fifty receiving yards, but that 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:54.040 was at minus two fifty and as I said, place 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:56.679 a little bit on the over seventy five receiving yards 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:58.479 and even money, and that was a lot. So it 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:01.400 was gambling at its finest. Our guest Sean Corner. He 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:03.320 hit on the Bengals and the Browns over forty three 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:05.560 and a half. He missed on the Seahawks, getting three 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:06.960 and a half from the nine Ers. He won on 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:09.840 his top prop bet of Travis Homer over forty one 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:11.800 and a half yards, And for his other bet, he 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:14.080 said he'd probably pop an in game bet on the 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.480 Chargers over the Chiefs, depending on the line. My guess 0:07:16.520 --> 0:07:17.960 is he hit it at the peak when it was 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:20.360 Chargers plus eleven and a half like I did. So 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:22.480 I'm just gonna give him credit for that. Now, as 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:24.800 everybody pretty much knows, we start with pick six, where 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:27.160 we each give our three best bets of the weekend. 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:29.400 There are only four games this weekend. It's not easy, 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:30.880 but we're gonna do our best. So Matt, get us 0:07:30.880 --> 0:07:32.280 started here. What's your first pick? 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:33.920 Okay, So I'm gonna start with the first game of 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:37.240 the day on Saturday, and that's gonna be Buffalo at Houston. 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:41.000 And this game is incredibly hard for me because I 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:44.840 either have to trust Josh Allen or trust Bill O'Brien, 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:48.520 and that's really hard to do. So you're talking about 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:51.640 a Houston team that's at home, a Buffalo team that 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:54.200 I have been betting against and losing on, and i'd 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:56.800 been wrong. I've been going to the well consistently here 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:58.880 against when it comes to the Bills, I guess, except 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:01.280 against the Patriots. But I've been looking at this Buffalo 0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:04.440 Bills team and they play incredibly hard. I just don't 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:06.800 think Josh Allen can throw the football. And I think 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:10.120 JJ watt coming back is pretty significant from a pass 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:13.560 rushing perspective because receivers coming back from injury or running 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:15.920 backs coming back from injury have to get in sync 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:18.440 with a quarterback. It's not that hard for a defensive 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:20.320 lineman to pin his ears back on third down and 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:22.360 go get the quarterback. It's kind of just in their 0:08:22.480 --> 0:08:24.760 nature to go and do it. So while his stamina 0:08:24.880 --> 0:08:26.760 might not be up in the fourth quarter, the game 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:29.040 might be over by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:31.680 So I really think if you can get this under three, 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:33.760 and currently, I mean here in Vegas, it looks like 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:35.960 it's two and a half across the board at most books, 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:39.320 I think the home team here. I know road Dogs 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:42.040 have been so profitable this year, but this is still 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:45.920 the postseason. It's the playoffs. I'm gonna lay two two 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:47.960 and a half on Houston and I'm gonna take the 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:50.160 Texans to wind up winning and knock it out the Bills. 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:53.680 Man, I gotta be honest, I don't I don't feel 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:55.440 I kind of think the Bills are gonna win this game. 0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:57.440 I really do. I kind of do I don't. I 0:08:57.440 --> 0:08:59.720 don't have a strong feeling bad it. You raise good points. 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:02.840 I mean rookie quarterbacks or not rookie quarterbacks, but quarterbacks 0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:05.679 making their first start in the playoffs, you just can't 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:08.480 trust them whatsoever. I don't think Watt's gonna have a 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:11.360 huge impact in this game. Just look you should. You 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:13.839 can't return from a torn pack in this amount of time, 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:16.240 like you just can't. I can't imagine that he's gonna 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:19.160 be out there playing that many snaps. I feel like 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:21.160 it's got to be more of a morale type of 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:23.480 thing at this point. I mean, I know he's he's. 0:09:23.320 --> 0:09:25.360 Like to see him around type of guy, though. I mean, 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:27.319 do you think J. J. Watt comes back from morale? 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:27.880 I don't know. 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:29.480 No, I think he wants to. 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:30.679 He's gonna want to. 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.240 Play, I get it. I think he wants to play, man. 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:35.360 But that's the other thing, man is it does not 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:37.079 sound like Will Fuller is going to play in this game, 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:40.240 you know whoever. I think James Palmer tweeted out that 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:42.400 he thinks it's a long shot. So that's a big 0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:44.679 deal for me, sort of with them stretching the field now, 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:47.959 I don't really know necessarily who's gonna win. But I'm 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:51.480 a little worried about the Texans coming out. I think 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:53.800 if forced to, I think the Bills are gonna win. 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:56.080 But it does sort of lead into my first pick, 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:58.439 and I'm gonna actually do a two team teaser for 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:01.600 my lost pick. Yeah, so it's going to be part 0:10:01.600 --> 0:10:04.400 of this game, which is I'm gonna tease the Bills 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:06.760 up from plus two and a half to plus eight 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.760 and a half, and I'm gonna tease the Saints down 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:12.079 from laying seven and a half right now to one 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:14.800 and a half. So I think whatever way this Bill's 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.840 game goes, I don't see it as being the Texans 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:20.720 blowing them out. I just don't really think that they 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.880 have that capacity to do it right now without Fuller, 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:27.120 right because the Bill's pass defense is very, very good, 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.640 especially with there's no Will Fuller. They're exploitable on the ground. 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:32.839 But the Texans, you know, as good as Carls Hide 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.520 and you know Duke Johnson whatever were this season, they're 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:38.000 not dominant. They can't just roll out there and crush 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:39.920 them in this game. And like you said, I don't 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:43.080 trust Bill O'Brien. I certainly have more faith in the 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:45.880 UH in the Bills coaching staff, and look, I think 0:10:45.920 --> 0:10:48.400 that you know, it depends if Watt is there and 0:10:48.440 --> 0:10:50.280 he shores up that run defense and he does play 0:10:50.280 --> 0:10:51.920 a lot of Stuff's fine, that might change things. But 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:54.160 you know, the Texans are beatable through the air. Their 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:56.600 run defense, certainly without Wat has taken a hit. So 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:59.439 either way, the Bills the Bills. As we talk, I think, 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:01.480 by the way, you selling yourself short because the last 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:03.200 time you were on I think it was an early 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:05.960 look at the lines. But you love the Ravens beating 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:08.040 the Bills and covering, which they did in that game, 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:09.840 and you said that then you were fading them the 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:12.199 whole time. I think that's right. But they never get 0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:14.480 blown out. They did that one game against the Eagles, right, 0:11:14.480 --> 0:11:16.800 but against the Ravens I lost by seven. Against the Pats, 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:18.760 I lost by seven and six. So I think either 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:20.800 way they'll keep it close. And with the Saints, look, 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.200 they may win this game by twenty for all I know, 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:25.960 but it's a big number. It's easy for a backdoor cover. 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:28.200 I cannot imagine they lose this game. Though, So if 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:30.040 I'm going to get it at underfield goal here at 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:32.280 a point and a half, essentially pick them. I'm all 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.040 over that. The offense is explosive right now. You know 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:37.920 to the secondary for the Vikings is terrible. They're not 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.000 gonna be able to stop Michael Thomas. Trake On Smith 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:43.040 is playing better, and you know the Vikings offense, I 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:46.240 don't know. I mean, you know, you've got Kirk Cousins 0:11:46.240 --> 0:11:48.920 in a primetime game. But you know Dalvin Cook he 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:51.280 is coming back here, but one shot at the shoulder 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:53.800 he could be out for the rest of the game. Cousins, 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:55.640 you know, I'm not sure he's gonna have too much 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:57.880 success through the air. Saints have Marshau Lanimore and now 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:00.400 Janoris Jenkins. That place is going to be banana if 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:03.440 there's a if there's a play that is questionable. I 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:06.000 can't see how the refs are gonna go against the 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:08.439 Saints hum and everything that's happened. So I think the 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:10.280 Saints are gonna win this game. I'm not sure by 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:12.080 how much. And I don't think the Bills are gonna 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:14.000 get blown out. So my bet the only bet high places, 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:16.120 as you mentioned I'm in New Hampshire DraftKings is here 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:19.240 is that two team teaser with the Bills up from 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:21.320 plus two and a half to plus eight and a half, 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:23.880 with the Saints down from lank seven and a half 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:24.760 to laying one and a half. 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:26.760 Look, you're speaking my language here because I am a 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.640 massive proponent of two team teasers in the NFL. I 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:31.480 think if I can play the around with the line, 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:34.080 these lines, in particular late in the year where the 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:36.280 lines is so sharp, the only thing, just from a 0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:38.720 casual better perspective that we have to point out here 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:41.160 you aren't gonna lay one ten to win one hundred. Here, 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:43.439 you're gonna lay one forty okay, son one hundred and 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:45.920 forty bucks down to win one hundred. So that's the 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.200 way the books protect themselves, and it gives you an idea. 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:51.320 That's how the books feel about two team teasers. And 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:53.800 I have had long conversations about book makers here in 0:12:53.840 --> 0:12:56.640 Las Vegas, and they freaking hate these things. These things 0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:59.880 hurt them because if you're an educated person with the NFL, 0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:02.280 and you clearly are, you know how to move these 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:04.720 lines and manipulate the games around. And if you're okay 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.880 with laying one hundred and forty bucks to win one hundred, 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:09.800 you have a chance to really get after it here, because, 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.160 like you mentioned, the chances of the Vikings winning this 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:16.040 game outright, which would blow your teaser up, highly unlikely. 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:19.280 So that's the only hook to get to worry about 0:13:19.320 --> 0:13:22.040 a little bit. But the line being over a touchdown 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:25.200 opened at eight, now seven and a half in maybe 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:27.679 seven a game kicks off. But it gives you an 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:29.920 idea as to how the books feel about the Vikings 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:32.120 and Kirk Cousins going to the Dome to beat the Vikings. 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:33.880 So sorry to beat the Saints. So all you gotta 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:36.840 do is, hey, New Orleans, just win, win the game, 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:39.320 and you're good. I love your play here a lot 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:43.920 in Buffalo, keeping it close unless Josh Allen throws three picks, 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:47.240 which could happen by a possibility, Okay, which can happen 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:51.400 if he becomes a turnover machine in his first playoff game. Okay, 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.679 I mean I don't like Josh Allen. I'm on the record. 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:56.280 I don't think he hit the broadside of a barn. 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:58.200 I think he has zero touch. I think every time 0:13:58.280 --> 0:13:59.640 he throws the ball up in the air, you never 0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.240 know where its going. Can He's got a cannon for 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:04.320 an arm, so you throw the ball seventy yards. He 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:06.000 just has no idea where the thing's going when he 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:09.719 throws it, So I'm a little I'm concerned about that 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:12.240 side of it only if he is turning the ball over. 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:14.200 But if he doesn't and he just hands the ball off, 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:16.480 they can lose the game by a touchdown and you're 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.320 in the clear. So I don't hate your play at all, 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:21.360 I really do. And then this is a by the way, 0:14:21.400 --> 0:14:24.280 this is a huge teaser weekend. This is these lines 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:25.640 are all ripe to be teased. 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:28.520 Oh absolutely, I completely agree. And yeah to your point, yeah, 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:30.680 I got it. You know, minus one forty three. I'm 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:32.400 not getting a deal or anything like that, but it 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.320 is it is a line that I feel relatively confident. 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:37.520 And again, I just you know, I have faith in 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:39.760 the Bills at least keeping it close. I don't know 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:41.360 if they're going to win the game or even if 0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:43.200 they're gonna be able to cover that line, but I 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.040 do feel confident that they're going to be able to 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:46.600 cover the eight and a half. All right, let's go 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:47.680 to your second pick. What do you got? 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:49.560 All right, so I'm going to go to a weather game. 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:51.720 And you mentioned it a little earlier, Tennessee, New England 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:55.560 in Foxborough where the line is going up. Okay, this 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:58.720 has been really interesting for me to watch this, So 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:02.080 I would say weight on this number until kick to 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.960 see how high it winds up going. But over the 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:07.320 total for the Titans in the Pats opened at forty 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:08.880 one and a half. It's been bet up to forty 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:11.640 four and a half, forty five. I've seen it may 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:14.240 go over forty five. Let it keep going up, and 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:17.040 then I'm saying bet the under here, and I just 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:20.320 this is my thing about the Titans. The Titans are 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:23.160 going to try to run the football. The Patriots know 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:27.160 Ryan Tannehill, They've played Ryan Tannehill. This Patriots defense played 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:31.080 pathetically bad against the Dolphins. Stefan Gilmour got lit up 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.720 by DeVante Parker, they got roasted in the media. If 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:37.880 the Patriots defense is not ferocious in this game, I 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:41.400 will be absolutely shocked. I don't think the Titans are 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:43.920 going to score much. I think they might get to twenty. 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:46.960 I think they're probably in the teens, like seventeen. And 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.360 we know the Patriot offense is a massive pain. It's 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:51.800 a huge problem. Brady's a problem right now with this 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.840 tennis elbow Edelman's banged up and not healthy. They don't 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:58.000 have really a wide receiver worth talking about other than 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:00.480 Julian Lleman, who is a slot receiver. They don't have 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:03.000 a tight end. Their running game with Sony Michelle has 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.000 hit or missed. They've given the ball Direx Burkhead a 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:07.520 ton because he breaks tackles and Sony Michelle does not. 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.080 And if you're not running the football, it limits Jane's 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:12.120 White's ability because he's a he's a you know, a 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.440 change of pace guy in a screen weapon, and if 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.800 you'ren't running the football well enough, then it really limits 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:18.560 what he can do. So the Patriots are going to 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:20.480 have a tough time scoring in this Titans defense. And 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:24.200 that's why I have toyed with the idea of the Patriots, 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:26.320 you know, of taking the points here at five and 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:28.960 a half or five for Tennessee. But I think the 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:31.360 under is a stronger play here in this game. And 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:34.680 there could be rain in cold temperatures in Foxborough, and 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:37.080 nobody likes tackling anybody in the rain, so that makes 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:39.800 me a little afraid. But more likely, not a lot 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:41.800 of passing going on between the Titans and the Patriots, 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:42.560 so I'll play the under. 0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:45.880 Yeah, one hundred percent agree. You know, I talk about 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:48.200 this often usually what I do with our guests, I say, hey, 0:16:48.240 --> 0:16:49.680