1 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 2 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 3 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. 4 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: The NFL regular season may be over, but there is 5 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 1: still plenty of stuff to talk about for wild Card weekend, 6 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: and with me to talk about it all is Matt Perrault, 7 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: a host of Pushing the Odds on sp Nation Radio 8 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: and The Better Network and as I've mentioned often, one 9 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:33,639 Speaker 1: of my favorite podcasts, covering the Number where they break 10 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: down some of the action in sports books from the 11 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: previous weekend. You can find them on Twitter at sports 12 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: Talk Matt. Matt, thanks for coming on the show. How's 13 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 1: it going. 14 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 2: I really appreciate the invite coming back. This is a 15 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 2: lot of fun. I always great to talk to a 16 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 2: fellow New England or even though you're not really from 17 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,239 Speaker 2: New England but you live there now, so but thanks Dan, 18 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: I really appreciate the invite. 19 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: I'm so impressed that you remember my background, Matt, because 20 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: I feel like you would just come on. You talk 21 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: so much on someone. Well, you you're happy, you're out 22 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: in Vegas. What's the temperature right now? 23 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 2: Oh? It's cold, man. It's it's been forty five degrees 24 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 2: for pretty much the whole week, so it's been lows 25 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 2: in the upper thirties and flow forties. It's just disgusting, 26 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 2: to be quite honest. But we're seeing the light on 27 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: the end of the tunnel. It's the sixties are only 28 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 2: a couple of weeks away, so we're almost we're almost 29 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 2: through our winter. 30 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 1: Well, when you're in low forties, as you know, you're 31 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: pretty much in my summer at that point. So but 32 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 1: you know, and that could have an impact on this 33 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: weekend's game with your Pats, which we'll talk about. But Matt, 34 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,839 Speaker 1: I've been thinking about something. In addition to sports betting, 35 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 1: I do a lot of fantasy sports. Right when we 36 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 1: started doing this podcast earlier this season, I had to 37 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: let some of my fantasy baseball podcasting duties go, and 38 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 1: a few listeners they kept bugging me about sports gambling, right, 39 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:42,680 Speaker 1: they hadn't done it before. They didn't get it is 40 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:44,759 Speaker 1: really enjoyable. I was thinking about it the other night 41 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,199 Speaker 1: because I was watching and I know you were watching 42 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: because I follow on Twitter, so I saw you were 43 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 1: tweeting right at the time the Orange Bowl with Florida 44 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: and Virginia. Now, I don't go crazy with college football betting. 45 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 1: I'm too focused on the NFL during the season because 46 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 1: fantasy and everything. But buddy of mine is from Florida, 47 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: went to Florida and for fun, he and I have 48 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: just this joint fun. Nothing where I'm gonna lose my 49 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: house or anything, but we do small bets so we 50 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: could have fun. So he texted me midgame said he 51 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: wanted to throw some on the Gators who were laying fourteen. 52 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: I believe it was at halftime. So we did, and 53 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: we lost that bet. But I think all you need 54 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: to do is look at the last few minutes of 55 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 1: that game for anyone in the world to see exactly 56 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: what it means to be a sports better. 57 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 2: Right. Yeah, and look, and welcome to New Hampshire, by 58 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 2: the way, that's really fun to see another state in 59 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 2: New England. Rhde Island now in New England in New 60 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 2: Hampshire now were both legal with mobile wagering and whatnot. 61 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 2: So that's awesome. And look, I talk about this on 62 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 2: my show a lot. I talk about this in Covering 63 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 2: the Number with Patrick Everson, who I co hosted with 64 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 2: from Covers Dot com and one of the things that 65 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 2: I think everyone has to recognize and realize what's coming 66 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 2: podcast like this, that we're not going to be in 67 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 2: the bomb throwing media world anymore. Very soon, we're gonna 68 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 2: be in information. We're going to be in an actual 69 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 2: intellectual dialogue. And I tip of the cap goes to 70 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 2: Daily Fantasy because it started all of this really where 71 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 2: we start looking at the game and we're not worried 72 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: about what some dude behind a microphone is blasting some 73 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: player for being where he was two days before, or 74 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 2: you know, hey, did you know that Baker Mayfield was 75 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:12,919 Speaker 2: out in Austin two days after the year was over. 76 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 2: It's like, oh my gosh, he's a twenty four year 77 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 2: old guy. He has no responsibilities, he's a millionaire. Why 78 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 2: can't he be out drinking? Who cares? So Like that 79 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 2: crap is going away and we're actually gonna have real 80 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 2: fun conversations. And by the way, Steve Leevy deserves a 81 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 2: huge tip of the cap as well for pointing it 82 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 2: out that, hey, by the way, this kick a field 83 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:33,839 Speaker 2: goal that pushed it from fourteen and a half where 84 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 2: I was I was under I was at min was 85 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 2: fourteen and a half for Florida, push it to fifteen, 86 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden, here comes this crazy 87 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 2: drive for Virginia and they go down the field in 88 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 2: like thirty five seconds and score a touchdown to cover. 89 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: I mean, those are all conversations that at some point 90 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 2: we're gonna have live lines. Like I've mentioned this before. 91 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 2: I don't know if this podcast or others, but de 92 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 2: Zone does this right now with bet MGM, speaking of 93 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 2: the sponsor of this podcast, they run live odds on 94 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 2: their big fights on a ticker underneath the screen. You'll 95 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 2: see live odds minus four hundred were round three, round four, 96 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 2: whatever it is. That's going to be part of us 97 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 2: every day, and the broadcasters are going to have to 98 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 2: be educated enough to have that conversation of where the 99 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 2: line is, or where the line was, or where the 100 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 2: public was. And once once we get more than half 101 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 2: the states on board Fox, Fox will go first because 102 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 2: of Fox Bet clearly, but it'll be universal. ESPN is 103 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 2: going to have it with Caesars and whatnot. We're going 104 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 2: to have this acceptance where Steve Levy's conversations during the 105 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 2: game will not be so notable, even though it really 106 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 2: was when the game was going on. 107 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 1: It really kind of annoys me at this point when 108 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: there are these games that are so clearly out of 109 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 1: reach that the only people who are really watching at 110 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 1: that point are people who have bet on the game, 111 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 1: and announcers don't even remotely mention it, you know what 112 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 1: I mean. Like at least you know, the Levy was 113 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: all over it, which is great, but you know, at 114 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 1: this point, I feel like it's got to become more complace. 115 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: It's going to obviously, you know, as you said, is 116 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 1: more states do it. 117 00:04:56,560 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 2: But just take Cincinnati Boston College in your back of 118 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 2: the in your neck of the woods. So I believe 119 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: the total in that game was like forty five, I 120 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 2: think somewhere in that range, and it was thirty eight. 121 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:12,239 Speaker 2: Thirty six was the final. That's a blowout. Joe, who's 122 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 2: watching the fourth quarter of a bowl game, the Birmingham 123 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 2: Bowl between a six and six BC and an eleven 124 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 2: and three Cincinnati BC Eagle graduates in Cincinnati graduates and 125 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,159 Speaker 2: everyone who bet the game. So like, if you're a 126 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 2: if you're a broadcaster, you have to be this is 127 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 2: you know, I'm with you getting pissed off about this 128 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 2: because it is ridiculous in the fourth quarter. You should 129 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 2: be talking about the number. Hey, the total was this, 130 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 2: Here's many points have been scored. Will we see the 131 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 2: undercome through here? Or could this drive me in the 132 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 2: over or whatever? Because nobody's watching that Bowl game unless 133 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 2: they have money on it. 134 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:47,720 Speaker 1: Just one hundred percent, period, one hundred percent good, All right, good. 135 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 1: I know I got a stop on this big tangent start, 136 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: but I did want to talk about that because it 137 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,239 Speaker 1: struck out to me that, you know, people are freaking 138 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: out over whether they're going to call back the touchdown 139 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: on that was a pass to the offensive line right 140 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 1: in a completely meaningless game and has such huge implications. 141 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: I just think frankly that that's part of what's making 142 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 1: the sports betting great as it becomes, you know, more 143 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 1: widespread and becomes legal in each of the states. But 144 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: let's get into this weekend's action. Before we do, let 145 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: us quickly review last week as we always do, because 146 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,159 Speaker 1: I personally kind of had an Orange Bowl Florida Gators 147 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: laying fourteen kind of week. I lost on the Falcons 148 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 1: and the Bucks under forty eight because of a last 149 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,919 Speaker 1: second field goal tied it up, and then Jameis Winston 150 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 1: threw a pick on the first plane overtime. Just win 151 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: by a field goal in overtime, and we're good. I 152 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:32,359 Speaker 1: lost on the Broncos leanth three and a half to 153 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 1: the Raiders because the Broncos decided to try a completely 154 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,919 Speaker 1: unnecessary fifty seven yard field goal instead of punting in 155 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 1: a game they were otherwise sure to win. And I 156 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: lost the Ravens and the Steelers under thirty seven because 157 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: of a last minute safety. Now, to be fair, I 158 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 1: actually had that in real life at thirty eight, so 159 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 1: I push. But whatever. Even my prop bet where I 160 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: won the Christian McCaffrey over fifty receiving yards, but that 161 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 1: was at minus two fifty and as I said, place 162 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:56,679 Speaker 1: a little bit on the over seventy five receiving yards 163 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,479 Speaker 1: and even money, and that was a lot. So it 164 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: was gambling at its finest. Our guest Sean Corner. He 165 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: hit on the Bengals and the Browns over forty three 166 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: and a half. He missed on the Seahawks, getting three 167 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 1: and a half from the nine Ers. He won on 168 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: his top prop bet of Travis Homer over forty one 169 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: and a half yards, And for his other bet, he 170 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 1: said he'd probably pop an in game bet on the 171 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: Chargers over the Chiefs, depending on the line. My guess 172 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: is he hit it at the peak when it was 173 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 1: Chargers plus eleven and a half like I did. So 174 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna give him credit for that. Now, as 175 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: everybody pretty much knows, we start with pick six, where 176 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: we each give our three best bets of the weekend. 177 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: There are only four games this weekend. It's not easy, 178 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: but we're gonna do our best. So Matt, get us 179 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: started here. What's your first pick? 180 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 2: Okay, So I'm gonna start with the first game of 181 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 2: the day on Saturday, and that's gonna be Buffalo at Houston. 182 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 2: And this game is incredibly hard for me because I 183 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 2: either have to trust Josh Allen or trust Bill O'Brien, 184 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 2: and that's really hard to do. So you're talking about 185 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 2: a Houston team that's at home, a Buffalo team that 186 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 2: I have been betting against and losing on, and i'd 187 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 2: been wrong. I've been going to the well consistently here 188 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 2: against when it comes to the Bills, I guess, except 189 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 2: against the Patriots. But I've been looking at this Buffalo 190 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 2: Bills team and they play incredibly hard. I just don't 191 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 2: think Josh Allen can throw the football. And I think 192 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 2: JJ watt coming back is pretty significant from a pass 193 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 2: rushing perspective because receivers coming back from injury or running 194 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: backs coming back from injury have to get in sync 195 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 2: with a quarterback. It's not that hard for a defensive 196 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 2: lineman to pin his ears back on third down and 197 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 2: go get the quarterback. It's kind of just in their 198 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 2: nature to go and do it. So while his stamina 199 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 2: might not be up in the fourth quarter, the game 200 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 2: might be over by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. 201 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 2: So I really think if you can get this under three, 202 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 2: and currently, I mean here in Vegas, it looks like 203 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 2: it's two and a half across the board at most books, 204 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 2: I think the home team here. I know road Dogs 205 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 2: have been so profitable this year, but this is still 206 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 2: the postseason. It's the playoffs. I'm gonna lay two two 207 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 2: and a half on Houston and I'm gonna take the 208 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 2: Texans to wind up winning and knock it out the Bills. 209 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 1: Man, I gotta be honest, I don't I don't feel 210 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 1: I kind of think the Bills are gonna win this game. 211 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: I really do. I kind of do I don't. I 212 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: don't have a strong feeling bad it. You raise good points. 213 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 1: I mean rookie quarterbacks or not rookie quarterbacks, but quarterbacks 214 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:05,679 Speaker 1: making their first start in the playoffs, you just can't 215 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: trust them whatsoever. I don't think Watt's gonna have a 216 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 1: huge impact in this game. Just look you should. You 217 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,839 Speaker 1: can't return from a torn pack in this amount of time, 218 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: like you just can't. I can't imagine that he's gonna 219 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: be out there playing that many snaps. I feel like 220 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 1: it's got to be more of a morale type of 221 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 1: thing at this point. I mean, I know he's he's. 222 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 2: Like to see him around type of guy, though. I mean, 223 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,319 Speaker 2: do you think J. J. Watt comes back from morale? 224 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 2: I don't know. 225 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: No, I think he wants to. 226 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 2: He's gonna want to. 227 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: Play, I get it. I think he wants to play, man. 228 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: But that's the other thing, man is it does not 229 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 1: sound like Will Fuller is going to play in this game, 230 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: you know whoever. I think James Palmer tweeted out that 231 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 1: he thinks it's a long shot. So that's a big 232 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:44,679 Speaker 1: deal for me, sort of with them stretching the field now, 233 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 1: I don't really know necessarily who's gonna win. But I'm 234 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: a little worried about the Texans coming out. I think 235 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: if forced to, I think the Bills are gonna win. 236 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: But it does sort of lead into my first pick, 237 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,439 Speaker 1: and I'm gonna actually do a two team teaser for 238 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 1: my lost pick. Yeah, so it's going to be part 239 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: of this game, which is I'm gonna tease the Bills 240 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 1: up from plus two and a half to plus eight 241 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: and a half, and I'm gonna tease the Saints down 242 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,079 Speaker 1: from laying seven and a half right now to one 243 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: and a half. So I think whatever way this Bill's 244 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 1: game goes, I don't see it as being the Texans 245 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 1: blowing them out. I just don't really think that they 246 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: have that capacity to do it right now without Fuller, 247 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 1: right because the Bill's pass defense is very, very good, 248 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: especially with there's no Will Fuller. They're exploitable on the ground. 249 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:32,839 Speaker 1: But the Texans, you know, as good as Carls Hide 250 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 1: and you know Duke Johnson whatever were this season, they're 251 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: not dominant. They can't just roll out there and crush 252 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: them in this game. And like you said, I don't 253 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 1: trust Bill O'Brien. I certainly have more faith in the 254 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: UH in the Bills coaching staff, and look, I think 255 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: that you know, it depends if Watt is there and 256 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: he shores up that run defense and he does play 257 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: a lot of Stuff's fine, that might change things. But 258 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: you know, the Texans are beatable through the air. Their 259 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: run defense, certainly without Wat has taken a hit. So 260 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 1: either way, the Bills the Bills. As we talk, I think, 261 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 1: by the way, you selling yourself short because the last 262 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 1: time you were on I think it was an early 263 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 1: look at the lines. But you love the Ravens beating 264 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: the Bills and covering, which they did in that game, 265 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: and you said that then you were fading them the 266 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,199 Speaker 1: whole time. I think that's right. But they never get 267 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: blown out. They did that one game against the Eagles, right, 268 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: but against the Ravens I lost by seven. Against the Pats, 269 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: I lost by seven and six. So I think either 270 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: way they'll keep it close. And with the Saints, look, 271 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 1: they may win this game by twenty for all I know, 272 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 1: but it's a big number. It's easy for a backdoor cover. 273 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: I cannot imagine they lose this game. Though, So if 274 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: I'm going to get it at underfield goal here at 275 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: a point and a half, essentially pick them. I'm all 276 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: over that. The offense is explosive right now. You know 277 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: to the secondary for the Vikings is terrible. They're not 278 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: gonna be able to stop Michael Thomas. Trake On Smith 279 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: is playing better, and you know the Vikings offense, I 280 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, you know, you've got Kirk Cousins 281 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: in a primetime game. But you know Dalvin Cook he 282 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: is coming back here, but one shot at the shoulder 283 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 1: he could be out for the rest of the game. Cousins, 284 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: you know, I'm not sure he's gonna have too much 285 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:57,880 Speaker 1: success through the air. Saints have Marshau Lanimore and now 286 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: Janoris Jenkins. That place is going to be banana if 287 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 1: there's a if there's a play that is questionable. I 288 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: can't see how the refs are gonna go against the 289 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 1: Saints hum and everything that's happened. So I think the 290 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: Saints are gonna win this game. I'm not sure by 291 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 1: how much. And I don't think the Bills are gonna 292 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: get blown out. So my bet the only bet high places, 293 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: as you mentioned I'm in New Hampshire DraftKings is here 294 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: is that two team teaser with the Bills up from 295 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: plus two and a half to plus eight and a half, 296 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: with the Saints down from lank seven and a half 297 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: to laying one and a half. 298 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 2: Look, you're speaking my language here because I am a 299 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 2: massive proponent of two team teasers in the NFL. I 300 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 2: think if I can play the around with the line, 301 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,080 Speaker 2: these lines, in particular late in the year where the 302 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 2: lines is so sharp, the only thing, just from a 303 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 2: casual better perspective that we have to point out here 304 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 2: you aren't gonna lay one ten to win one hundred. Here, 305 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,439 Speaker 2: you're gonna lay one forty okay, son one hundred and 306 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 2: forty bucks down to win one hundred. So that's the 307 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 2: way the books protect themselves, and it gives you an idea. 308 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 2: That's how the books feel about two team teasers. And 309 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 2: I have had long conversations about book makers here in 310 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 2: Las Vegas, and they freaking hate these things. These things 311 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 2: hurt them because if you're an educated person with the NFL, 312 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 2: and you clearly are, you know how to move these 313 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 2: lines and manipulate the games around. And if you're okay 314 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 2: with laying one hundred and forty bucks to win one hundred, 315 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 2: you have a chance to really get after it here, because, 316 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 2: like you mentioned, the chances of the Vikings winning this 317 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 2: game outright, which would blow your teaser up, highly unlikely. 318 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 2: So that's the only hook to get to worry about 319 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 2: a little bit. But the line being over a touchdown 320 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 2: opened at eight, now seven and a half in maybe 321 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:27,679 Speaker 2: seven a game kicks off. But it gives you an 322 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 2: idea as to how the books feel about the Vikings 323 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 2: and Kirk Cousins going to the Dome to beat the Vikings. 324 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 2: So sorry to beat the Saints. So all you gotta 325 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 2: do is, hey, New Orleans, just win, win the game, 326 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,320 Speaker 2: and you're good. I love your play here a lot 327 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 2: in Buffalo, keeping it close unless Josh Allen throws three picks, 328 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 2: which could happen by a possibility, Okay, which can happen 329 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 2: if he becomes a turnover machine in his first playoff game. Okay, 330 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 2: I mean I don't like Josh Allen. I'm on the record. 331 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 2: I don't think he hit the broadside of a barn. 332 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 2: I think he has zero touch. I think every time 333 00:13:58,280 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 2: he throws the ball up in the air, you never 334 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 2: know where its going. Can He's got a cannon for 335 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 2: an arm, so you throw the ball seventy yards. He 336 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 2: just has no idea where the thing's going when he 337 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:09,719 Speaker 2: throws it, So I'm a little I'm concerned about that 338 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 2: side of it only if he is turning the ball over. 339 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 2: But if he doesn't and he just hands the ball off, 340 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 2: they can lose the game by a touchdown and you're 341 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 2: in the clear. So I don't hate your play at all, 342 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,360 Speaker 2: I really do. And then this is a by the way, 343 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 2: this is a huge teaser weekend. This is these lines 344 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 2: are all ripe to be teased. 345 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I completely agree. And yeah to your point, yeah, 346 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: I got it. You know, minus one forty three. I'm 347 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 1: not getting a deal or anything like that, but it 348 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: is it is a line that I feel relatively confident. 349 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: And again, I just you know, I have faith in 350 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: the Bills at least keeping it close. I don't know 351 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: if they're going to win the game or even if 352 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to cover that line, but I 353 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: do feel confident that they're going to be able to 354 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: cover the eight and a half. All right, let's go 355 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: to your second pick. What do you got? 356 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 2: All right, so I'm going to go to a weather game. 357 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 2: And you mentioned it a little earlier, Tennessee, New England 358 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 2: in Foxborough where the line is going up. Okay, this 359 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 2: has been really interesting for me to watch this, So 360 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 2: I would say weight on this number until kick to 361 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 2: see how high it winds up going. But over the 362 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 2: total for the Titans in the Pats opened at forty 363 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 2: one and a half. It's been bet up to forty 364 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 2: four and a half, forty five. I've seen it may 365 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 2: go over forty five. Let it keep going up, and 366 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 2: then I'm saying bet the under here, and I just 367 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 2: this is my thing about the Titans. The Titans are 368 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 2: going to try to run the football. The Patriots know 369 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 2: Ryan Tannehill, They've played Ryan Tannehill. This Patriots defense played 370 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 2: pathetically bad against the Dolphins. Stefan Gilmour got lit up 371 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 2: by DeVante Parker, they got roasted in the media. If 372 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 2: the Patriots defense is not ferocious in this game, I 373 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 2: will be absolutely shocked. I don't think the Titans are 374 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 2: going to score much. I think they might get to twenty. 375 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 2: I think they're probably in the teens, like seventeen. And 376 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 2: we know the Patriot offense is a massive pain. It's 377 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 2: a huge problem. Brady's a problem right now with this 378 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 2: tennis elbow Edelman's banged up and not healthy. They don't 379 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 2: have really a wide receiver worth talking about other than 380 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 2: Julian Lleman, who is a slot receiver. They don't have 381 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 2: a tight end. Their running game with Sony Michelle has 382 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 2: hit or missed. They've given the ball Direx Burkhead a 383 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 2: ton because he breaks tackles and Sony Michelle does not. 384 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 2: And if you're not running the football, it limits Jane's 385 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 2: White's ability because he's a he's a you know, a 386 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 2: change of pace guy in a screen weapon, and if 387 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 2: you'ren't running the football well enough, then it really limits 388 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 2: what he can do. So the Patriots are going to 389 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 2: have a tough time scoring in this Titans defense. And 390 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 2: that's why I have toyed with the idea of the Patriots, 391 00:16:24,440 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 2: you know, of taking the points here at five and 392 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 2: a half or five for Tennessee. But I think the 393 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 2: under is a stronger play here in this game. And 394 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 2: there could be rain in cold temperatures in Foxborough, and 395 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 2: nobody likes tackling anybody in the rain, so that makes 396 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 2: me a little afraid. But more likely, not a lot 397 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 2: of passing going on between the Titans and the Patriots, 398 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 2: so I'll play the under. 399 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent agree. You know, I talk about 400 00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 1: this often usually what I do with our guests, I say, hey, 401 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 1: just give me your picks, you know, I don't know, 402 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: you know, an hour or two in advance, so you 403 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 1: can get it. Matt. Matt was pretty busy. He gave 404 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: me his picks three seconds in advance before he came 405 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 1: out the way. 406 00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 2: I'm stealing one of your plays. 407 00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: And he did steal one of my plays. So I 408 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 1: could either make something up, but you know what, it's 409 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: a short week, all right, we're gonna go with this. 410 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: This also would have been one of my players. I 411 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 1: completely agree with you here. I mean you look at 412 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: the I mean, Brian Tennell is playing great, right he 413 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,439 Speaker 1: absolutely is playing really really well right now. A lot 414 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: of it goes to AJ Brown. Derrick Henry is absolutely dominant. 415 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 1: But you've got the Patriots, and you know exactly what 416 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,760 Speaker 1: they're gonna do in this game defensively after last week, right, 417 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: they're gonna stack the box to stop Henry. They're gonna 418 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: double Brown, okay, and then they're gonna put Gilmour and Davis. 419 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 1: They're not gonna do the thing. Where Gilmore, they're just gonna, 420 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 1: you know, with Parker, they're gonna do the thing where 421 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: they put two guys on the best receiver and then 422 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: put Gilmore probably on Corey Davis or whatever. And so 423 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 1: you know, from their defense, given the weather, I think 424 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:42,959 Speaker 1: they're really gonna be able to slow down the Titans. 425 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 1: And on the other side, yeah, look, the problem is 426 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: the Titans defense really good against the runs, so it's 427 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 1: gonna be really difficult I think for the Pats to 428 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: get going there now. They're exploitable in the secondary, but 429 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 1: the Pats just don't have it right now. 430 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:54,240 Speaker 2: Man. 431 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: I mean, look, you're you're a fan, obviously, I don't 432 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: know what you think if this is the end of Brady, 433 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,919 Speaker 1: whether or not he's battling through in whether it's just 434 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 1: the fact that the receivers other than Edelman are way 435 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: too raw and young and everything like that, whatever it is, 436 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,199 Speaker 1: they don't have the offense right now to exploit that 437 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 1: deficiency in the Titans defense, particularly when you go with 438 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 1: the weather that's gonna come. Like you said, so for me, 439 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: you know what Dorriy Jackson's coming back to. I agree 440 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 1: with you, man, I completely agree on this play. I 441 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: have it as well. I'm surprised. I can't believe it's 442 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 1: gone up three points since open. It's crazy. I guess 443 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: people were hammering the over there. But I completely agree 444 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 1: with you. I'm on board for my second pick. I'll 445 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 1: leave that as my third pick. This one is another 446 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 1: under for me, and that's the Seahawks and the Eagles 447 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: under forty five and a half. I feel like, frankly, 448 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 1: you could go with a narrative either way on this game. 449 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 1: You like, oh, I really want to go over. You know, 450 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 1: the Seahawks defense kind of stinks. Clowney is going to 451 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: be out. They don't pressure the quarterback. They're not good 452 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 1: against pass catching running backs, they're not good against tight ends. 453 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is playing great, and the Eagles have no secondary, 454 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 1: and you know, once Wilson was Wilson in the second 455 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: half against the forty nine ers. Blah blah blah. I 456 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,200 Speaker 1: feel like you could easily make that narrative. But I'm 457 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: going the other way because you know, we know what 458 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: Brian Schottenheimer is at this point. I don't think that 459 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 1: six injured running backs and obvious success passing the ball 460 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 1: against an exploitable secondary is gonna change what he does. 461 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,440 Speaker 1: He's gonna stick with the ground game. He's gonna run 462 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 1: at a ton, he's gonna eat time off the clock. 463 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 1: And with the Eagles, it's just a different game here 464 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: in the playoffs. I don't think whether or not Miles 465 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 1: Sanders and zach ar Is actually play. I don't think 466 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 1: either one is going to be able to be effective 467 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 1: given their injury. Dallas Goddard, Greg Ward, Jordan Howard. I 468 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: just don't see this as being the type of offense 469 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 1: it's gonna be able to put up a ton of 470 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 1: points in the playoffs. Again, it's gonna be cold in 471 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: a game like this. I see this as being one 472 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: of these draged out, hard hitting affairs where it's gonna 473 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 1: kind of keep the game closed throughout, and I think 474 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: in the end it's gonna wind up being under forty 475 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:51,879 Speaker 1: five and a half. So that's my second pick here. 476 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 1: I don't know how you feel about that. 477 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 2: I like it because I think the key to this 478 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 2: game and this is kind of going right and kind 479 00:19:58,200 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 2: of into my third pick, because my third pick is 480 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 2: phil Ladelphia plus one and a half at home to 481 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:03,679 Speaker 2: beat the Seals, because I don't think the Seahawks can 482 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 2: run the football, and they've got so many injuries. I 483 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 2: think Philadelphia is going to try to play ball control. 484 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 2: I think they're gonna run the football straight down the 485 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,160 Speaker 2: throats for the Seattle Seahawks, and I think that's their key. 486 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:18,440 Speaker 2: Boston Scott on the edge shorten this game. I mean, 487 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 2: just get a win, don't worry about what you're doing. 488 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,400 Speaker 2: Just get in and get out. And I just think 489 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 2: there are injuries on both sides that are pretty significant, 490 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 2: but I think Philadelphia's defense is the biggest reason why 491 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,439 Speaker 2: I like this game for the Eagles to win. And 492 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 2: I just I know, Russell Wilson is Russell Wilson, I 493 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 2: get it. I'm just not I haven't been in love 494 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 2: with this team, even with a seven and one record 495 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 2: on the road. I just haven't really been in love 496 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,640 Speaker 2: with this Seattle Seahawks team. And maybe I'm thinking about 497 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,719 Speaker 2: the Rams game too much, but I mean, they already 498 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 2: played once and they beat the Eagles once, and I 499 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 2: think it's really hard to beat a team twice in 500 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 2: the same year, but on the same field, and that 501 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 2: game was seventeen to nine, So that kind of fits 502 00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 2: right into what you're talking about about a low scoring 503 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 2: defensive battle between Philadelphia and Seattle. So I love that play. 504 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 2: I like the under a lot. I just think the 505 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 2: Philadelphia Eagles right now at home. This is a coaching 506 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 2: staff that has had a lot of pressure on them. 507 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 2: It's a huge game for Carson Wentz. He played incredibly 508 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,880 Speaker 2: well last week. I just think this is a game 509 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 2: protecting the home field in the weather. I just don't 510 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,159 Speaker 2: see Seattle, even with their seven to one road record, 511 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,400 Speaker 2: even with beating the Eagles earlier in the year in Philly. 512 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 2: I like Philadelphia plus one and a half. 513 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 1: The Seahawks are not a very good football team, man Like, 514 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: They're just not. It's all Russell Wilson pulling crazy stuff, 515 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 1: you know, out out of his hat. And I think 516 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 1: what you're gonna see in this game is, for the 517 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,920 Speaker 1: most part, you're gonna see conservative, but you're gonna see 518 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: one or two crazy, smart, brilliant, you know, trick plays 519 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 1: that Peterson's going to pull out that are going to 520 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,439 Speaker 1: be the difference while the Seahawks are just running instead 521 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,920 Speaker 1: of they're much more effective if they just let Wilson 522 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 1: go and let him be what he can be. But 523 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 1: they don't like to do that. So yeah, if i'm 524 00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 1: forced to pick a side in this game, I would 525 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: take the Eagles, but overall my preferred play is the 526 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,719 Speaker 1: under there, so let's just recap my third pick. By 527 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: the way, I'm not gonna force one because I don't 528 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: love anything else here, So we're both just jumping on 529 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 1: the Patriots and the Titans under forty four and a half, 530 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: so we're both taking that one. I'm also doing the 531 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 1: two team teaser with the Bills getting eight and a 532 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 1: half and the Saints laying one and a half. And 533 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:24,160 Speaker 1: my other pick, sorry, is the Seahawks and the Eagles 534 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,440 Speaker 1: under forty five and a half. You are also jumping 535 00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 1: on the Pats and the Titans under forty four and 536 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: a half. You are going to take the Eagles getting 537 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 1: one and a half, and you're gonna take the Texans 538 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 1: laying two and a half. So we've got some fun 539 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: stuff going on for this week. And now before we 540 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 1: move on, I want to tell everyone about the sponsor 541 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: of today's show, bet MGM, and specifically the bet MGM 542 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,439 Speaker 1: Sports App. With the bet MGM Sports App, you can 543 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: place a bet right from your phone. All you need 544 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: to do is search for the bet MGM Sports app 545 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,360 Speaker 1: in your app store, download it, sign up for an account, 546 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 1: and when you sign up, you want to use our 547 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: promo code Harris, because when you do, you get a 548 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: risk free five hundred dollars bet. 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Visit betmgm dot com 564 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 1: for the full list of terms and conditions and if 565 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,160 Speaker 1: you've got a gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. 566 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 1: All right, So this is the point in the show 567 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 1: where we ordinarily move to It's a Trap, where we 568 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: list to one line that we're avoiding before we finish 569 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,639 Speaker 1: up with top prop, where we give our favorite player 570 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 1: prop bet of the weekend. Now, Matt and I recorded 571 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: both segments, but unfortunately we had a few technical issues 572 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 1: and Matt's audio never came through. So he got a 573 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 1: couple options here. We can ditch the segments entirely. I 574 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 1: can try to impersonate Matt and make his picks, or 575 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: I can just give you both our picks in regular 576 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 1: Dan Harris talk. Because I already know Matt's picks, and 577 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 1: because he has a grade A radio voice that I 578 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 1: could never duplicate, I'm going with options C. So interestingly, 579 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 1: for It's a Trap, Matt and I both went with 580 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 1: the same game, but we had different angles on it. 581 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 1: Matt was avoiding either side of the Pats laying five 582 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: to the Titans. He is confident that the Pats are 583 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: going to win the game, but he could see them 584 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 1: putting it all together and winning by twenty or eking 585 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 1: out a close win by only a field goal. In short, 586 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 1: he does not feel confident that the Pats would cover 587 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,919 Speaker 1: the spread, but he does feel like they'll win, so 588 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 1: he's just avoiding the spread on that game entirely. Now. 589 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 1: As for me, if I like the Pats, I would 590 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: be willing to lay the five points because I don't 591 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: see them coming away with a close victory here. I 592 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 1: think either you're going to see closer to a classic 593 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 1: Patriot at home in New England weather against the rookie 594 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:06,199 Speaker 1: offensive coordinator type of dominant performance, or I think that 595 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,879 Speaker 1: the downfall is real and the Titans are going to 596 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 1: pull this game out. In other words, I don't see 597 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 1: this as a three point win for the Pats. I 598 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,160 Speaker 1: can see them putting it all together and winning big. 599 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,840 Speaker 1: Or I can see the Titans taking this game, which 600 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,160 Speaker 1: means that the line I'm avoiding is the Titans getting five. 601 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 1: If you like the Titans, I just as soon take 602 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 1: them on the money line. Or really, since Matt and 603 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 1: I are both avoiding the spread in that game, just 604 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 1: take the under and be done with it now. Oddly enough, 605 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 1: Matt and I both stuck with that game. For our 606 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 1: top prop, Matt had Ryan Tannehill under eighteen and a 607 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,479 Speaker 1: half completions at minus one ten. He views that as 608 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,159 Speaker 1: a game that with the rain forecasted in particular, the 609 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: Titans are going to try to control the ball on 610 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,360 Speaker 1: the ground and not air it out. Considering that Tannehill 611 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,400 Speaker 1: does not throw that much even on a good day, 612 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,159 Speaker 1: I had no problem with it. As for me, I 613 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,160 Speaker 1: was taking Julian Edelman over sixty four and a half 614 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: receiving yards at minus one on nine. Tom Brady just 615 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,640 Speaker 1: has very limited options in the passing game right now. 616 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 1: You heard me talk earlier about how the Titan secondary 617 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: is their weakness, but that the Pats can't really exploit 618 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: that at the moment. But the one place that they 619 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,199 Speaker 1: can exploit that is in the slot where Edelman is 620 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,879 Speaker 1: going to go up against old friend Logan Ryan. The 621 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 1: Pats know him well. He is terrible this year in coverage, 622 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,639 Speaker 1: one of the worst slot cornerbacks in the league. I 623 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,959 Speaker 1: see Edelman getting a ton of targets and easily passing 624 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 1: the sixty four and a half yard receiving threshold. Honestly, 625 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 1: I would probably bet this up to roughly seventy two 626 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 1: to seventy three, So I'm going to be placing a 627 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: pretty hefty bet on it over at DraftKings and that's 628 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: what you missed again. Really sorry about the technical issues. 629 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 1: Before we go, I want to say thanks again to 630 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,199 Speaker 1: the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember to download 631 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 1: the bet MGM Sports app and use the promo code 632 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,440 Speaker 1: Harris to get your risk free five hundred dollars bet. 633 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 1: And don't forget to leave this review on Apple Podcasts 634 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 1: or Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to 635 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 1: contest at betting per dot com to be entered into 636 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 1: our Michael Thomas segned helmet giveaway. Good luck with your 637 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 1: wagers this week, and everyone, we're gonna be back next 638 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:09,120 Speaker 1: week talking about the division