WEBVTT - Hard Lessons = Great Value.  Stephen Kates Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>It's been quite amazing that during a war, and a

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<v Speaker 1>war that in particular had a ton of unknowns throughout it,

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<v Speaker 1>the stock market continued to set records. A lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the reasons the stock market has been setting so many

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<v Speaker 1>records over the last couple of years is the all

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<v Speaker 1>the AI tech stuff. The biggest companies in those top

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<v Speaker 1>tier stocks that are driving so much of the gains

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<v Speaker 1>tech companies, and they all got scared about AI just

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<v Speaker 1>the other day, all of a sudden at the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>Which is kind of interesting how that would happen like that.

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<v Speaker 1>Nasdaq dropped two point two percent on Tuesday alone. The

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<v Speaker 1>Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell nearly eight percent in one day.

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<v Speaker 1>Stocks like Navidia, AMD, Intel, Marble, Micron, sand Disc all

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<v Speaker 1>got hammered.

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<v Speaker 2>What is going on there?

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<v Speaker 1>I wanted to talk to an expert because I am

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<v Speaker 1>certainly not, and Stephen Kates joins this. He is a

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<v Speaker 1>finance expert clock Tower Financial Consulting.

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<v Speaker 2>Stephen, thanks for taking a little time for us today.

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<v Speaker 3>My pleasure. Happy to talk about this kind of thing.

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<v Speaker 2>Uh great, because.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, is this the bursting of the tech bubble that

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people have been worried about or a

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<v Speaker 1>mini burst or what is it?

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<v Speaker 3>Honestly, it's me there. It's not a bursting at this point.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, we can look at the what the market

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<v Speaker 3>has done. Just in the first six minutes of the

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<v Speaker 3>market open, Nasdaq is up half a percent. Obviously that

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't erase yesterday is drop, but you know it's not

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<v Speaker 3>a continuation. We're not careening lower on the second day here.

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<v Speaker 3>Yesterday was just a bad.

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<v Speaker 1>Day, just just a singular bad day, like with no

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<v Speaker 1>greater significance.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, that's what it seems to be. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>you can look at you know, where the market's moving,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know, if we were careening lower, opening another

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<v Speaker 3>two percent down, well, that would certainly show some signs

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<v Speaker 3>that there's continued concerns, you know, a risk off attitude

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<v Speaker 3>from investors. But you know, I think we've all been

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<v Speaker 3>conditioned over the last couple of years to expect that,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, if the market is not going straight up,

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<v Speaker 3>that something is wrong and that doesn't happen. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>sometimes we do just have bad days. Yesterday, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>there was a catalyst for that. Semiconductor stocks were down

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<v Speaker 3>and down a lot and going into yesterday's open, uh,

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<v Speaker 3>in the US. South Korea, which is incredibly exposed to

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<v Speaker 3>semiconductor stocks UH was very negative. It's sell ten percent

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<v Speaker 3>UH in their market. That happens before the US market opens,

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<v Speaker 3>and so that did affect us, and that was one

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<v Speaker 3>of the reasons that you know, investors were a bit

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<v Speaker 3>skittish yesterday. Micron has earnings at the end of the

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<v Speaker 3>day today after the market closes. That's a big earnings announcement.

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<v Speaker 3>They're a major player in the semiconductor space. So there

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<v Speaker 3>are some things going on that investors are concerned about.

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<v Speaker 3>But you know, this doesn't appear to be the bottom

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<v Speaker 3>falling out of the market. It was a bad day.

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<v Speaker 3>We seem to be slightly recovering today across the NASDAC,

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<v Speaker 3>the S and P, you know, the Russell two thousand,

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<v Speaker 3>which is small cap stocks, and that's good to see that, you.

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<v Speaker 2>Know, we're seeing a little bit of a bounce.

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<v Speaker 1>I just a couple of weeks ago opened a index

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<v Speaker 1>fund for each of my teenagers, the high schoolers, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, to get them and got the app on

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<v Speaker 1>their phone and they can follow it on a regular

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<v Speaker 1>basis and put their Christmas money in there and all

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<v Speaker 1>that sort of stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>And I thought.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe we get a crash and they maybe that would

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<v Speaker 1>be a good thing to have their first lesson of

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<v Speaker 1>investing be that it doesn't always go up.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know, Well, it's not a bad lesson. It

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<v Speaker 3>has and I think to have those lessons early on

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<v Speaker 3>is ideal. I learned that lesson firsthand actually in the

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<v Speaker 3>industry watching the been great, you know, coming out of

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<v Speaker 3>the Great Financial Crisis. I didn't love that lesson, but

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<v Speaker 3>it was it was a valuable one. Nonetheless, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>for a lot of people, understanding the way the market

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<v Speaker 3>moves and what is and isn't normal is one of

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<v Speaker 3>the most foundational things that you can understand. A lot

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<v Speaker 3>of people have been conditioned to expect that the market

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<v Speaker 3>just goes higher, that we get up, up, up all

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<v Speaker 3>the time, twenty percent growth year over year or year.

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<v Speaker 2>That isn't the case.

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<v Speaker 3>We've been very lucky in the last five even fifteen years.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I'm thinking we're going to time it perfectly for

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<v Speaker 1>retirement to crash right when I need it. So I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to let you argue with chat GPT. I asked

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<v Speaker 1>the question, what can you tell me about the big

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<v Speaker 1>tech sell off?

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<v Speaker 2>And it said.

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<v Speaker 1>Investors starting asking a question that they haven't asked much

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<v Speaker 1>over the last year around the whole tech thing. Are

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<v Speaker 1>all these trillions of dollars being spent on AI actually

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<v Speaker 1>going to earn enough money to justify it?

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<v Speaker 2>Is that a question people are asking.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's a legitimate question to ask, and certainly

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<v Speaker 3>people are asking that. You know, it's a question of

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<v Speaker 3>how long will it take for this to play out?

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<v Speaker 3>You know, is there you know, really a thesis here

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<v Speaker 3>that that can can can bear out? And you know,

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<v Speaker 3>in some ways, when you look at companies like open

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<v Speaker 3>ai or Oracle, uh, you know, they're spending a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of money, the revenue is not quite catching up. I

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<v Speaker 3>think open ai Financials leaked recently and they lost twenty

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<v Speaker 3>billion dollars last year or something to that effect. So

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<v Speaker 3>that's not encouraging, But you know, it is a it

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<v Speaker 3>is a situation where you know, a lot of the

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<v Speaker 3>companies that are involved with open ai or backing some

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<v Speaker 3>of these AI ventures, uh, like your Amazon's, your Google's,

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<v Speaker 3>your Microsofts, they are still incredibly profitable companies and still

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<v Speaker 3>earning an enormous amount of money. Where things get a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit dangerous is if they continue to make you know,

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<v Speaker 3>make the spending larger and larger, to the point where

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<v Speaker 3>the revenues never grow, but the spending keeps increasing and

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<v Speaker 3>they have to take out additional equity for debt to

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<v Speaker 3>supply the funding for this. That's where things start to

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<v Speaker 3>get a little concerning. We are potentially crossing into that threshold,

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<v Speaker 3>and we're going to need to see these companies and

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<v Speaker 3>this debt actually start to pay off in some way.

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<v Speaker 3>We're going to need small companies, regular companies actually to

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<v Speaker 3>see efficiency gains. We're not necessarily seeing that profits for

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<v Speaker 3>major tech companies have been enormous, but you know your

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<v Speaker 3>small cap companies, your regular mom and pop shops, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the everyday businesses all around our cities and towns. Are

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<v Speaker 3>they getting any benefit out of this? Are they even

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<v Speaker 3>using it? And if the answer is no, then it

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<v Speaker 3>gets a little bit concerning whether this actually has a

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<v Speaker 3>there there.

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<v Speaker 1>So Friday before last we were talking about fullmo fear

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<v Speaker 1>missing out around the whole SpaceX stock and I didn't invest.

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<v Speaker 1>If I had invested in SpaceX, would I be happy

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<v Speaker 1>today or not?

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<v Speaker 2>I haven't been checking.

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<v Speaker 3>If you oh, you're still happy, but you're not as

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<v Speaker 3>happy as you were Wednesday of last week. Today, if you,

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<v Speaker 3>I think, and I'll have to see exactly where it opened,

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<v Speaker 3>because I didn't look before we talked. Is surprised is

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<v Speaker 3>about one hundred and fifty one dollars. It peaked at

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<v Speaker 3>over two hundred and twenty, I believe, or two hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and fifteen or so, So we're down considerably from from

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<v Speaker 3>where we were just a week ago. Almost everybody who bought,

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<v Speaker 3>possibly everybody who bought post IPO. So in the secondary

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<v Speaker 3>market you didn't get the IPO price, but if you

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<v Speaker 3>bought after that, you may have already been been losing money.

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<v Speaker 2>What uh you got? You got?

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<v Speaker 1>You know this?

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<v Speaker 2>You know?

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<v Speaker 1>No, no, I'll tell everybody to turn off, turn off

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<v Speaker 1>for radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Just now.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just between me and him. Are you personally invested

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<v Speaker 2>in space X No not, you're not. No.

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<v Speaker 3>The you know it was exciting to watch. I think

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<v Speaker 3>everybody probably felt that fomo you know where, could I

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<v Speaker 3>have gotten some shares and then wow, what a pop?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm up forty.

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<v Speaker 3>Percent you know or whatever that was from Monday to

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<v Speaker 3>you know, Friday to Wednesday. But now, if you bought

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<v Speaker 3>the secondary market, you're losing money. Uh, And that isn't

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<v Speaker 3>surprising because five percent of the total space x stock

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<v Speaker 3>is available for for buyers. Uh, there is going to

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<v Speaker 3>be another forty or fifty percent of that stock that's

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<v Speaker 3>going to become available over the next eleven months, and

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<v Speaker 3>so there's going to be an incredible amount of insider

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<v Speaker 3>selling pressure. People who are part of the company or

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<v Speaker 3>they have been investors in the past when it was private.

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<v Speaker 3>They're going to be selling their shares to actually create

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<v Speaker 3>some liquidity for themselves to actually utilize some of the

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<v Speaker 3>wealth that they have created from being investors in FASEX.

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<v Speaker 3>That kind of supply coming into the market is going

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<v Speaker 3>to push this price even lower. So there's not a

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<v Speaker 3>good case for buying in now and expecting a profit

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<v Speaker 3>over the next six.

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<v Speaker 2>Or twelve months.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, I'm really glad I asked. That's very interesting. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>mostly in the prediction market. I've got a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>money on whether or not Prince Harry and Megan market

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<v Speaker 1>divorce in the next year.

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<v Speaker 2>That's mostly where I put my money to top market.

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<v Speaker 1>I regularly say that the stupidest mainstream reporting in all

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<v Speaker 1>of journalism is economic reporting. Does does mainstream economic reporting

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<v Speaker 1>drive you crazy? Because the way they react to little

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<v Speaker 1>market jigglings. It drives me nuts, and it probably should.

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<v Speaker 3>I love that kind of news, but that's just me.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think most people do. It is important to

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<v Speaker 3>not get so in the weeds where every little market movement,

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<v Speaker 3>every little adjustment to every economic report, sends you into

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<v Speaker 3>a tizzy. You know. The media promotes that kind of

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<v Speaker 3>attitude where we have to react to everything and you shouldn't,

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<v Speaker 3>whether you're investing for your retirement and you're just trying

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<v Speaker 3>to keep your sanity, or whether you're trying to figure

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<v Speaker 3>out how is the job market? Can I change jobs?

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<v Speaker 3>Can I buy a house? You know, reacting to every

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<v Speaker 3>little nuance of the economy or the stock market is

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<v Speaker 3>going to drive you absolutely bananas. You have to have

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<v Speaker 3>a longer view, and you have to try to make

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<v Speaker 3>decisions with the information you have in the moment you

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<v Speaker 3>have it.

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<v Speaker 1>If you could give me a short answer on this,

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<v Speaker 1>because I got a break and I appreciate your time,

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<v Speaker 1>But the the the no spend, no politics. What's the

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<v Speaker 1>state of our economy?

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<v Speaker 2>Good? Bad, poor, excellent? I'll give you those.

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<v Speaker 3>Four some good things, there are some bad things, and

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<v Speaker 3>your circumstances are going to dictate sort of whether you

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<v Speaker 3>feel you know better or worse about that. Hiring a swell,

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<v Speaker 3>but most people still do have jobs. If you want

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<v Speaker 3>to buy a house and you are a first time

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<v Speaker 3>home buyer, life is pretty terrible because you just can't

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<v Speaker 3>get one.

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<v Speaker 2>That's interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>That's like the old reminded me, the old saying of

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<v Speaker 1>it's a recession if you have a job, if you

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<v Speaker 1>lose your job, it's a depression. I mean, it matters

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<v Speaker 1>to your personal situation, what the economy is like.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a very much so.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, okay, Stephen Kates, appreciate your time. Finance expert clock

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<v Speaker 1>Tower Financial Consulting. Thanks a lot for coming on on

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<v Speaker 1>short notice about.

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<v Speaker 2>The tech stocks.

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<v Speaker 3>My pleasure, happy to do it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I need to talk to people like that regularly to

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<v Speaker 1>calm down because, as Joe says, everything's clickonomics and then

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<v Speaker 1>the money is to be made by the Wall Street

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<v Speaker 1>Journal or CBS News or whoever. To make it seem

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<v Speaker 1>like whatever the stock market did up or down is

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<v Speaker 1>a really really big deal, when quite often it's not.

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<v Speaker 1>It's just the market goes up and down. You got

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<v Speaker 1>to see trends over you know, weeks or months to

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<v Speaker 1>really start talking about it. I got more on that. First,

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<v Speaker 1>I need to tell you about simply Safe, which I

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely love. Every time I pull away from my house

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<v Speaker 1>seeing the simply Safe sign right there to remind me

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<v Speaker 1>that my house is protected with the system that I

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<v Speaker 1>ordered from simply Safe. I went online. I customized it

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<v Speaker 1>to the house that I currently live in. The cameras,

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<v Speaker 1>the censor's, all the different sort of stuff, It comes

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<v Speaker 1>in the mail fast. I set it up myself in

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<v Speaker 1>about thirty minutes. They'll offer help to you if you want,

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<v Speaker 1>but you can't do it yourself. It's super easy. You

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<v Speaker 1>don't have to be some sort of you know, handyman

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to do that. No long term contracts,

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<v Speaker 1>because simply safe believes you're gonna like it enough to

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<v Speaker 1>keep using it, and it's dang dang impressive if you

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<v Speaker 1>want to experience the same peace of mind that I

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<v Speaker 1>do every time I pull away from my house, which

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<v Speaker 1>is why we've partnered with simply Safe to offer this

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<v Speaker 1>exclusive discount to our listeners.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now, you can get.

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<v Speaker 1>Sixty percent off and a free outdoor camera, which is

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<v Speaker 1>essential on your new system by visiting simply safe dot

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<v Speaker 1>com slash armstrong, simply safe dot com slash armstrong.

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<v Speaker 2>There's no safe like simply safe.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, my kids, my brother actually had brought this up

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<v Speaker 1>to them over Christmas, and it took me five months

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<v Speaker 1>to get it done.

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<v Speaker 2>But they now have this.

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<v Speaker 1>They both have a little index fund, and hopefully I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to encourage them strongly to put birthday money, Christmas money,

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<v Speaker 1>any money they earn from chores, that sort of stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>at least part of it into that index fund and

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<v Speaker 1>see how it grows. Because the most valuable thing you've

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<v Speaker 1>gotten me You know this, once you're old, and maybe

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<v Speaker 1>you missed out, the most valuable thing you've got in investing,

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<v Speaker 1>more than anything else in the world is time. Time

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<v Speaker 1>is the big multiplier.

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<v Speaker 2>I wish I had done that.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody says that it's so hard to convince young people

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<v Speaker 1>that I don't care how broke you are. Put money

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<v Speaker 1>in your four oh one K. I do not care

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<v Speaker 1>how broke you are, put money in your four o K.

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<v Speaker 1>It makes so much difference. You just it's so hard

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<v Speaker 1>to imagine ever being old when you're when you're twenty five,

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<v Speaker 1>you think I'm never gonna be sixty. It just ain't

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<v Speaker 1>gonna happen. It's weird that human beings deny the reality

0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 1>of the calendar the way we do. Anyway, that's a

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<v Speaker 1>topic for a different day. We get a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>on the way to stay here.