WEBVTT - BTW in DC Day 1: US-Iran Talks in Limbo 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.160 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg 0:00:10.280 --> 0:00:15.960 This Weekend Podcast with David Gura, Christina Raffini, and Lisa Matteo. 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:20.600 Thanks for joining us for today's selection of conversations from 0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:21.000 the show. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:23.479 You can listen to our favorite discussions right here on 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.800 the podcast, but also make sure to join us live 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.960 every Saturday and Sunday morning starting at seven am Easter. 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:32.800 We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App, 0:00:33.080 --> 0:00:37.640 bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:39.120 lifestyle and culture. 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.840 All right, right now, Arom's Foreign minister is an Islamawad 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:47.839 Pakistan meeting with the Prime minister. He also today the 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:50.599 President's Millie's envoy, Steve Whitkoff and his son in law 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:52.879 Jared Kushner are set we think to. 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:53.479 Go to Pakistan. 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:55.720 As we were just mentioning David, we don't have timing. 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:56.000 On that yet. 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:56.600 No timing. 0:00:56.640 --> 0:00:58.320 The problem seems to be Aron says there's no meeting 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:00.880 plan with those KEYUS negotiators, so here to talk about 0:01:01.280 --> 0:01:02.880 what is likely to play out or could playut. I 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:05.200 suppose it's blimber Port Eric Martin, who was listening in 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:06.920 Islam about for that first round of talks and covers 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:09.800 the State Department for us here at Bloomberg get us 0:01:09.880 --> 0:01:11.880 up to speak on what the administration is saying about 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:13.800 the prospect for these talks. I think that there was 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:15.720 a lot of anticipation going into that first round. It 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:18.520 does seem like the expectations are perhaps a bit more muted. 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:21.560 Well, certainly this weekend the talks have been immoving or 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:23.679 this week the talks have been a moving target. We 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:26.920 saw on Tuesday a lot of anticipation waiting for the 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:29.679 Vice President to get on a plane to go to Pakistan. 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:34.000 We saw the last minute changes to that reporting in 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:38.440 terms of a meeting in Washington and Envoys Kushner and 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:42.039 Whitkoff coming to Washington instead of going to Pakistan. So, 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.959 like everything, this is very fluid situation. And remember it 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:48.000 takes a long time to go to Pakistan. To get 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.480 to Pakistan, I experienced a couple of weeks ago. I'm 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:54.240 still recovering my voice from that trip. And so you know, 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:57.200 I did the math. It took about twenty six hours 0:01:57.320 --> 0:02:00.000 last time around for the Vice President's playing to get 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:05.720 to Pakistan. Seventeen in the air, and then there's twenty 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:08.080 six hours difference from Washington, and so you know, the 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:10.680 earliest we could potentially see them in Pakistan if they 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:12.840 were leaving now, would be Sunday morning. 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:13.160 There. 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:15.919 This is, you know, an evolving situation, but I think 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:19.160 it's a good sign that we're seeing the envoys going 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:22.880 rather than a principle like the vice president, because that 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:27.000 takes some pressure off of the process. It means that 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:29.680 there's not the same pressure to deliver. Usually the president 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:31.840 or vice president is the closer they go in when 0:02:31.840 --> 0:02:34.160 there's a deal. We stayed up all night a couple 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:36.520 of weeks ago, a couple of Saturdays ago, waiting for 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:39.840 the Vice president to come out, fifteen hours of constant talks, 0:02:39.880 --> 0:02:41.160 twenty one hours on the ground. 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:42.240 It was just exhausting. 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:45.520 And so you know, we've seen the Iranian signaling that 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:47.919 they're not talking directly to the US, they're not expecting 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.440 to that they're expecting to go on to Russia and 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:53.519 to Oweman this weekend, and so we're kind of back 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:56.200 to the stage where we're having notes passed between each 0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:59.120 side and where they're not all sitting together at the table. 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.600 But some positive signs from the reporting we've had from 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.079 Iran in that they have a written response to the 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:09.680 US proposal and maybe dialing things down the notch in 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:13.000 terms of the envoys less of a press presence. Most 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:15.280 of us are here in Washington trying to get David 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:18.760 out to a party tonight, and so you know, it's 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:22.440 something where there's just a little bit less intensity than 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:23.560 what we had two weeks ago. 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:25.959 That's really interesting because we've been talking about how it 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:28.280 might complicate things the mismatch. 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:28.520 Levels of folks. 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:30.560 Right, because the Iranian foreign minister is over there, you 0:03:30.680 --> 0:03:32.400 generally want a pair like with like you expect the 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:33.960 Secretary of State to go over there, and whether the 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:36.520 Iranians would be willing to engage in someone. 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:38.200 But as our team. 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.160 Pointed out, you know, there's this very special status that 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.520 whit coffin Kushner have that is not unlike other administrations. 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:45.720 And to your point, one of the criticisms has been 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:48.080 the lack of working level meetings. So it seems like 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:50.480 you're saying maybe because they're not there, they can actually 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:51.440 get things done. 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:52.760 There's just less pressure. 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:57.160 No one's necessarily expecting a press conference from Steve Witkoff 0:03:57.200 --> 0:03:59.200 and Jared Kushner when they come out. That's not been 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.360 traditionally the way things have worked, whether it's been in Geneva, 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:04.320 in Islamabads. 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:05.720 Despite all efforts by you and others. 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:08.640 Despite our best efforts as stalkers to you know, to 0:04:08.720 --> 0:04:10.920 chase them down hallways and get them to tell us 0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:13.520 what's going on behind closed doors. The fact that there's 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:17.039 not typically that readout immediately after means that you can 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:19.720 kind of lower the temperature a little bit and maybe 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:23.279 find more flexible landing zones in a process like this. 0:04:23.360 --> 0:04:26.400 But of course, as you said, Christina, the credibility that 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:29.599 the envoys bring the president's son in law and a 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:32.320 close friend of the president. They have that credibility which 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.600 you don't necessarily have from a career staff or somebody 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:39.280 you know in the Foreign Service or the National Security Council. So, 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:41.400 you know, still important and still having that kind of 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:46.960 key access and influence and ability that space to negotiate, 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:48.960 but just a little bit less pressure than when it's 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:51.479 the vice president and all eyes of the world are 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:53.440 just on on that hotel. 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:55.480 Eric Martin, great to see you. Eric Martin covers the 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:57.000 State Department for US here at Plomberg. 0:04:57.000 --> 0:04:59.159 Thank you so much. Nice to see you back all right. 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:02.279 Joining us now is a Republican Congress Michael McCall of Texas. 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:05.160 He of course serves on the Foreign Affairs and Homeland 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:08.800 Security committees. You know who I did see out last night, David. 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:09.479 Gerra wasn't me. 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:17.320 It was the chairman of Meritis was out. 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:20.279 Looking very respectful. British embassy event. Nothing on tour. Thank 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:21.120 you for getting up early. 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:23.040 I know it's it's a thank you. I'll be seeing 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:24.400 at the Bloombirg table tonight. 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:25.479 Excellent, excellent. 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:27.040 This is how we could exert pressure to get to 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:30.800 this early. I mean, you heard Eric, your very experienced 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:33.359 in foreign policy. What do you give the odds of 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.600 these talks succeeding in any kind of near term timeline. 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:39.560 I don't see any big breakthrough in the near term. 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.919 I think his analysis is correct. Ney to lower the 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:46.440 expectations as smart if you have the Vice president there 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:48.239 that that's usually when you sign the deal. 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:50.200 So I think I think they're doing this in the 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:50.799 right way. 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:56.040 You know, Ron is notorious for being dilatory in its tactics, uh, 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:57.920 you know, trying to get to a deal but then 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:00.240 pulling the rug out at the last minute, and then 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.400 when you do get a deal, it's trust but verify, 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:04.880 and it's very hard to trust them, and I think 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:05.920 that's the big issue. 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:08.320 I'm curious we've been following this. As Eric said, everything's 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:11.520 changing hour by hour. I'm curious for you, as Jeromeritis 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:13.080 of the Fort of Faris, but are you getting the 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:15.760 information that you need about the diplomatic objectives and how 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:17.560 these talks are unfolding where you like us kind of 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:19.280 fumbling a bit here trying to figure out who's doing 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:20.160 what and who's running point. 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:23.479 I mean it could be better. I mean even in 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:25.760 the prior administration. Now we get calls from the Secretary 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:27.320 of State, I think on. 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:29.240 This democratic administration, right. 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.560 I mean, they've been very close to the vest on 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:35.520 this and I understand that. But it's also important to 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.200 reach out to Congress, where under Article one, a separate 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:39.440 but equal branch of government. 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:41.480 And so I've been to Islamabad. 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:45.120 He's right, it's a very long ways away and it's 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:46.080 a very different. 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:46.560 Part of the world. 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:50.240 I do applaud Pakistana for stepping up and being an 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:55.320 intermediary between the two parties. I'm not very sanguine under 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.400 this regime in Iran that you're going to have anything 0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:01.200 in the short term. I plowed the President for not 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:05.440 hitting you know, civilian infrastructure that's almost an active you 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:10.280 know of, to be honest with you, and so I 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.760 think this is the right path. I know the markets 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:17.560 have responded very well to this. I don't think it's 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:21.080 any best interest to see this drag on, the war 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:24.200 drag on, if you will, when they see rising gas prices. 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:26.360 There's a lot of pressure actually on the White House 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:29.520 to get this thing resolved. But I don't know, and 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:32.840 I think Iran knows that too, And I always am 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:33.720 very skeptical. 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:35.600 I think they're always trying to play us. 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:38.960 But to that point, as we've talked about the reason 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:41.480 this administration pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Agreement the 0:07:41.520 --> 0:07:43.800 first time, as they said, because Iran couldn't be trusted 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:45.880 and even if they answered a deal, it wasn't worth 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:48.280 a piece of paper it was written on. Those facts 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:51.920 on the ground have not innately changed. Are they going 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:53.760 to be able to get a better deal this time around? 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:58.360 Well, the JCPOA would have legalized a nuclear bomb in 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:02.040 Iran today. That's what we were saying back when we 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:02.720 oppose that. 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:04.000 You know. 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:06.640 I look, as long as this regime is in power, 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:09.240 you're gonna have this problem. And we've had this problem 0:08:09.400 --> 0:08:12.920 since nineteen seventy nine. Every present since it has said 0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:18.560 no nuclear you know, warhead in Iran, but no present's 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:23.120 really done anything. They tried the jcpoa President Trump's first president, 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:23.920 to actually. 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:26.000 Act and hit Iran where it hurts. 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:29.840 But I think, I do think in the early days 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:32.480 of this, when the I Told was with his cabinet 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:36.079 underground and they were annihilated and taken out, there was 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:38.160 a hope that there could be a regime change at 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:39.040 that point in time. 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:41.040 But the fact is it didn't happen. 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:43.920 And I don't know if the American people of the 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:47.840 appetite to stay in long term to finish that job, 0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:49.720 or whether we hand that off. 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.679 To Israel and let Masade try to do that. I 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.360 don't know. But as long as this regime is in power, 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:55.160 we're gonna have this problem. 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:56.640 Let me ask you about that, because there's a big 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:58.199 piece in the Times about the state of the new 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:01.520 Supreme Leader grievously getting a lot of medical care from 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:05.319 a very small group of physicians. People are passing notes 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:07.360 to get to him because they're worried about giving an 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:08.240 indication of where. 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:09.040 He might he might be. 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:11.880 But what you're talking about racist this point of who 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:13.319 does the US need to talk to if it's that, 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:15.199 if it's objectives here are to get some sort of 0:09:15.240 --> 0:09:16.920 regime attention to really change Iran? 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:19.079 Was that a colossal misstep? 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:23.000 Do you think by this administration killing those who could 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:25.319 have been perhaps partners and trying to change the courts 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:26.000 in Iran? 0:09:26.280 --> 0:09:26.880 Well after the. 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:29.719 Twelve Day War they didn't step up and they were 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:31.400 not willing negotiating partners. 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:33.040 Now they're no longer. 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.080 On this in this world, but there is a line 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:39.120 of session in Iran and that's taking place. Their Foreign 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:41.760 minister seems to be the one that really the sort 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:45.559 of the point of contact for this negotiation. But they 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:47.640 had you know, they're going to continue to you know, 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:50.360 as long as this regimes in power. You know this 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:54.360 problem and so I mean, they've been a source of 0:09:54.960 --> 0:09:57.640 torture and agony and terror in the Middle East since 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:01.959 nineteen seventy nine, and until that regime is gone, it's 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:03.600 gonna be hard to have peace in the Middle East. 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:05.000 It's gonna be hard. 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:07.920 As Jared Kushner goes there, who is the architect of 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:12.600 the Abraham Accords, to have normalization between Saudi's and the 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:16.800 Arab world and Israel. We were getting so close to that. 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:19.960 That's when October seventh happened. Happened when those talks of 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:23.400 normalization were going on, Iran saw that it lit up 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:26.280 its proxies, and that's why we had October seventh. 0:10:26.559 --> 0:10:28.959 But given David's question and the fact that to your point, 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:31.760 that regime did not fall, it is still there and 0:10:31.920 --> 0:10:33.280 possibly a hardened form. 0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:35.480 Is the Iran we have now. 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:38.800 Potentially more dangerous and unpredictable than the Iran we had 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:39.880 before this conflict started. 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:44.079 I mean possibly their nuclear their military industrial complex has 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:45.760 been severely degraded. 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:46.880 And that's the good news. 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:51.480 The bad news is the regime still continues to move forward, 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:54.000 and I think you're gonna continue to have that problem 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:55.760 of trusting them. 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:57.240 And it's a very fanatical. 0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:01.560 This is not Venezuela in a decay appetation of Venezuela. 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:06.840 That was a beautiful military operation. This one far more difficult. 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:10.640 It's a larger country. It's hard to effectuate regime change 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:13.880 without troops on the ground, which I would not recommend. 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:16.160 I think we put our troops in the ground there, 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:19.840 they become magnets for the jihadists. We saw that in Iraqi, 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:22.560 in Afghanistan for twenty years. I don't think that would 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:26.360 be a good idea. I do think Israel though, with Masad, Remember, 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:30.479 they can carry out political assassinations. Congress has made that illegal. 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:33.760 They can do things we can't, and I think maybe 0:11:33.760 --> 0:11:37.200 they're perhaps in a better position to try to effectuate that. 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:39.320 It's very complicated. 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:41.120 Though increasingly when we talk about Roan, we're talking about 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.040 China and the three which China's advantaged by this war continuing. 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:45.640 I'm curious if the President were to call you. 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:47.360 Up and ask for your counsel ahead of his trip 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:49.920 to China, what you would say, What are the objectives 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.760 he should have in making that meeting that having that 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:54.880 meeting with President Chief that's been postponed once already. 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:55.960 I would lay conditions. 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:59.880 I mean, the meeting itself is a concession of any 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.120 president to meet with Chairman she who is perhaps our 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.920 greatest adversary in the world right now, the great power competition, 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:09.880 and I would lead conditions. First, I would say, hey, 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:13.160 stop assisting Iran in the region. I would say the 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:18.000 same thing to mister Putin, stop providing drone technology, stop 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:22.040 providing targeting information on our military. I would say the 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:24.120 same thing to Chairman she I'm not going to meet 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:26.199 and have a daytime like meeting. 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.880 If you're going to continue to arm RAN. 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:34.520 With your software that helps with your drone technologies, that 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:37.400 should be an absolute precondition to any meeting. 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:39.440 We've only got about three seconds for RIF to let 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:41.280 you go, But I do want to ask you about 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.080 the cabinet shuffling we're seeing and the changes in leadership 0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:45.960 and the president's inner court. Do you think this is 0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:47.640 a positive thing or do you think this is a 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:49.560 sign of disarray and chaos in the White House. 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:54.199 Well, some was due to I think, you know, malpractice 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:57.360 on the part of the cabinet members. I mean, the 0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:01.520 Labor Secretary had some really gross violations going on. I 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:03.960 think Christynam is a colleague of mine. I respect her, 0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:07.600 but the you know what they did with Bavino and 0:13:07.600 --> 0:13:12.000 how they handled that situation. You know, I was a 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:17.160 little surprised by the Attorney General Pam Body's firing. There's 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:19.520 a piece though, that came out in Politico today. It 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:22.480 talks about this very issue. He has a limited window 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:26.640 on confirmations, so there are a few more of these 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:30.040 firings in the queue, as I understand it. And so 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:32.400 the advice was, look, if you're gonna do this, do 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:35.480 it now while you have time to get confirmations done 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:36.680 before the midterms. 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:37.640 Otherwise, don't do it. 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:39.160 He was an next, you want to preview, you have 0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:40.080 information that we don't. 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:41.920 I'm not getting well say it for the dinner. 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:43.240 You can read Politico. 0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:46.000 Person Michael call. 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:46.679 Thank you so much. 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:47.800 Always love me to see you, sir. 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:53.120 Good Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend. 0:13:53.480 --> 0:14:06.760 Right after this, global. 0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:09.560 Oil prices have climbed back towards their wartime high as 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:11.959 the conflict in Iran hits the eighth week. But have 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.160 we seen the worse of the sticker shock when it 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:15.079 comes to energy prices? 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:16.840 With us now in studio is Dan jurg And Vice 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:17.920 chairman of SMP Global. 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:19.760 He is also the Pulitzer Prize winning author of the 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:22.160 prize the Epiquest for Oil, Money and Power and a 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:25.040 new book, The New Map, Energy, Climate and the Clash 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:27.120 of Nations. Dan, great to have you with us once again, 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:28.880 and I want to pick up with what our college 0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:31.120 josh win Grove was saying just a moment ago, he's 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:33.120 in West Palm Beach with the President. We talked about 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.480 this notion of kind of energy price relativism that the 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:40.000 President seems perhaps pleasantly surprised that oil prices hadn't climbed 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.040 as much as maybe he feared they would, raising the 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:45.560 specter of two hundred dollars a barrel oil. Oil prices 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:48.280 are higher, but we're not at two thousand and eight prices, 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.240 for instance. What do you make of what he's talking 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.280 about there, the fact that the spike has been sizable, 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:56.000 but maybe not as bad as he and others might 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:56.360 have feared. 0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:58.320 I think it's well, that's true if you go back 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:01.040 to their two thousand and eight or twelve to fourteen, 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.680 prices were over one hundred dollars a barrel. If you 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:05.880 put that in today's dollars, it's like one hundred and 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:08.320 sixty dollars barrel. So we haven't seen that, and there 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:10.720 wasn't that same kind of disruption that we're seeing now. 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.920 But the question is it still the relative calm before 0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:16.720 the storm. The longer this goes on, the more the 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:20.320 risk on the upside grow because the impacts are being felt. 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:23.960 The last cargoes have arrived in Europe, in Asia and 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:25.840 inventors are being drawn down. 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:27.520 Is that what we're waiting for? Because my question is, 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:28.800 why isn't it that bad? 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:32.920 I'm confounded as a foreign policy person about the markets 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:35.120 and the resilience and how any sign of life from 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.400 these negotiations from the White House. They seem to look 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:39.240 for any shred of evidence that things are going to 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:39.640 be okay. 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:41.040 Why is that happening? 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:43.800 You see a divergence between the financial markets, which, if 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:46.520 you say, respond to the news, you know a deal 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.240 is near or they're going to negotiate, and the reality 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:52.960 of people in Asia actually not having enough oil shortages, 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.640 rationing businesses closing down, restaurants not operating because they don't 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:57.120 have energy. 0:15:57.480 --> 0:15:58.800 So Asia is one area. 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:01.760 Europe is starting to feel a particularly jet fuel and 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:03.720 we're seeing it at the gasoline pump. 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.760 But it's been there before. 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.760 Talk a bit more about that, the pain that many 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:12.000 people around the world are feeling. And yes, we're fixated 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.560 on the market price and futures and all of that, 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:16.840 but there's a very real cost that's already taking effect here. 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:19.720 And I'm curious sort of how you assess that level 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:20.120 of pain. 0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:22.480 I think, what was you know, I think one of 0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:25.400 the things that people didn't think about before this happened. 0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:27.320 If they thought about the Straight of Horror Moves, they 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.480 thought about oil, maybe they thought about natural gas and energy. 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:33.560 They didn't think about fertilizer. They didn't think about helium, 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:36.600 they didn't think about aluminum, they didn't think about petrochemicals. 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:38.920 And it turned out that that region is much more 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.360 integrated into the global economy because of all the economic 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:46.760 development there. So it produces what is it about thirty 0:16:46.880 --> 0:16:50.480 forty percent of the world's helium, which you need to 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:52.400 make semiconductors. 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:52.920 Or MRI machines. 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:55.840 So this is actually unlike all the other things we 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:58.000 would talk about in the last twenty years, this is 0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:00.680 a much bigger disruption of the global economy. But it's 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:05.720 Asia because basically, economically, the Strait of Horror Moves went east. 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:08.760 Eighty percent of the oil, ninety percent of the energy 0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:11.399 went to Asia, and that's where the shortfall is in 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:13.480 ways that people really didn't model. 0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:16.800 I saw thought a bureau of the International energ Agency 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:19.800 saying we were facing the biggest energy security threat in history, 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.639 And I wonder if you agree with that assessment of 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:24.920 the moment that I'm very curious what Dan Jurgen's perspective 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:26.399 is on this moment. 0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:27.240 In the wider re. 0:17:27.240 --> 0:17:30.080 Story, I think this is the biggest energy disruption we've 0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:33.360 ever seen. But as you say, it's ironic that we're 0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:36.240 not seeing the full price impact, and so time is 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:37.720 really the key factor. 0:17:37.440 --> 0:17:41.200 Here when you look at this, is it so bad? 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:44.600 Because geographically there's just really no alternative as there have 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:47.560 been in some other conflicts. There Obviously there are pipelines 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:49.159