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Speaker 2: All right, right now, Arom's Foreign minister is an Islamawad
Speaker 2: Pakistan meeting with the Prime minister. He also today the
Speaker 2: President's Millie's envoy, Steve Whitkoff and his son in law
Speaker 2: Jared Kushner are set we think to.
Speaker 5: Go to Pakistan.
Speaker 2: As we were just mentioning David, we don't have timing.
Speaker 6: On that yet.
Speaker 7: No timing.
Speaker 8: The problem seems to be Aron says there's no meeting
Speaker 8: plan with those KEYUS negotiators, so here to talk about
Speaker 8: what is likely to play out or could playut. I
Speaker 8: suppose it's blimber Port Eric Martin, who was listening in
Speaker 8: Islam about for that first round of talks and covers
Speaker 8: the State Department for us here at Bloomberg get us
Speaker 8: up to speak on what the administration is saying about
Speaker 8: the prospect for these talks. I think that there was
Speaker 8: a lot of anticipation going into that first round. It
Speaker 8: does seem like the expectations are perhaps a bit more muted.
Speaker 9: Well, certainly this weekend the talks have been immoving or
Speaker 9: this week the talks have been a moving target. We
Speaker 9: saw on Tuesday a lot of anticipation waiting for the
Speaker 9: Vice President to get on a plane to go to Pakistan.
Speaker 9: We saw the last minute changes to that reporting in
Speaker 9: terms of a meeting in Washington and Envoys Kushner and
Speaker 9: Whitkoff coming to Washington instead of going to Pakistan. So,
Speaker 9: like everything, this is very fluid situation. And remember it
Speaker 9: takes a long time to go to Pakistan. To get
Speaker 9: to Pakistan, I experienced a couple of weeks ago. I'm
Speaker 9: still recovering my voice from that trip. And so you know,
Speaker 9: I did the math. It took about twenty six hours
Speaker 9: last time around for the Vice President's playing to get
Speaker 9: to Pakistan. Seventeen in the air, and then there's twenty
Speaker 9: six hours difference from Washington, and so you know, the
Speaker 9: earliest we could potentially see them in Pakistan if they
Speaker 9: were leaving now, would be Sunday morning.
Speaker 7: There.
Speaker 9: This is, you know, an evolving situation, but I think
Speaker 9: it's a good sign that we're seeing the envoys going
Speaker 9: rather than a principle like the vice president, because that
Speaker 9: takes some pressure off of the process. It means that
Speaker 9: there's not the same pressure to deliver. Usually the president
Speaker 9: or vice president is the closer they go in when
Speaker 9: there's a deal. We stayed up all night a couple
Speaker 9: of weeks ago, a couple of Saturdays ago, waiting for
Speaker 9: the Vice president to come out, fifteen hours of constant talks,
Speaker 9: twenty one hours on the ground.
Speaker 6: It was just exhausting.
Speaker 9: And so you know, we've seen the Iranian signaling that
Speaker 9: they're not talking directly to the US, they're not expecting
Speaker 9: to that they're expecting to go on to Russia and
Speaker 9: to Oweman this weekend, and so we're kind of back
Speaker 9: to the stage where we're having notes passed between each
Speaker 9: side and where they're not all sitting together at the table.
Speaker 9: But some positive signs from the reporting we've had from
Speaker 9: Iran in that they have a written response to the
Speaker 9: US proposal and maybe dialing things down the notch in
Speaker 9: terms of the envoys less of a press presence. Most
Speaker 9: of us are here in Washington trying to get David
Speaker 9: out to a party tonight, and so you know, it's
Speaker 9: something where there's just a little bit less intensity than
Speaker 9: what we had two weeks ago.
Speaker 2: That's really interesting because we've been talking about how it
Speaker 2: might complicate things the mismatch.
Speaker 5: Levels of folks.
Speaker 2: Right, because the Iranian foreign minister is over there, you
Speaker 2: generally want a pair like with like you expect the
Speaker 2: Secretary of State to go over there, and whether the
Speaker 2: Iranians would be willing to engage in someone.
Speaker 5: But as our team.
Speaker 2: Pointed out, you know, there's this very special status that
Speaker 2: whit coffin Kushner have that is not unlike other administrations.
Speaker 2: And to your point, one of the criticisms has been
Speaker 2: the lack of working level meetings. So it seems like
Speaker 2: you're saying maybe because they're not there, they can actually
Speaker 2: get things done.
Speaker 6: There's just less pressure.
Speaker 9: No one's necessarily expecting a press conference from Steve Witkoff
Speaker 9: and Jared Kushner when they come out. That's not been
Speaker 9: traditionally the way things have worked, whether it's been in Geneva,
Speaker 9: in Islamabads.
Speaker 2: Despite all efforts by you and others.
Speaker 9: Despite our best efforts as stalkers to you know, to
Speaker 9: chase them down hallways and get them to tell us
Speaker 9: what's going on behind closed doors. The fact that there's
Speaker 9: not typically that readout immediately after means that you can
Speaker 9: kind of lower the temperature a little bit and maybe
Speaker 9: find more flexible landing zones in a process like this.
Speaker 9: But of course, as you said, Christina, the credibility that
Speaker 9: the envoys bring the president's son in law and a
Speaker 9: close friend of the president. They have that credibility which
Speaker 9: you don't necessarily have from a career staff or somebody
Speaker 9: you know in the Foreign Service or the National Security Council. So,
Speaker 9: you know, still important and still having that kind of
Speaker 9: key access and influence and ability that space to negotiate,
Speaker 9: but just a little bit less pressure than when it's
Speaker 9: the vice president and all eyes of the world are
Speaker 9: just on on that hotel.
Speaker 8: Eric Martin, great to see you. Eric Martin covers the
Speaker 8: State Department for US here at Plomberg.
Speaker 5: Thank you so much. Nice to see you back all right.
Speaker 2: Joining us now is a Republican Congress Michael McCall of Texas.
Speaker 2: He of course serves on the Foreign Affairs and Homeland
Speaker 2: Security committees. You know who I did see out last night, David.
Speaker 7: Gerra wasn't me.
Speaker 8: It was the chairman of Meritis was out.
Speaker 5: Looking very respectful. British embassy event. Nothing on tour. Thank
Speaker 5: you for getting up early.
Speaker 10: I know it's it's a thank you. I'll be seeing
Speaker 10: at the Bloombirg table tonight.
Speaker 5: Excellent, excellent.
Speaker 2: This is how we could exert pressure to get to
Speaker 2: this early. I mean, you heard Eric, your very experienced
Speaker 2: in foreign policy. What do you give the odds of
Speaker 2: these talks succeeding in any kind of near term timeline.
Speaker 10: I don't see any big breakthrough in the near term.
Speaker 10: I think his analysis is correct. Ney to lower the
Speaker 10: expectations as smart if you have the Vice president there
Speaker 10: that that's usually when you sign the deal.
Speaker 11: So I think I think they're doing this in the
Speaker 11: right way.
Speaker 10: You know, Ron is notorious for being dilatory in its tactics, uh,
Speaker 10: you know, trying to get to a deal but then
Speaker 10: pulling the rug out at the last minute, and then
Speaker 10: when you do get a deal, it's trust but verify,
Speaker 10: and it's very hard to trust them, and I think
Speaker 10: that's the big issue.
Speaker 8: I'm curious we've been following this. As Eric said, everything's
Speaker 8: changing hour by hour. I'm curious for you, as Jeromeritis
Speaker 8: of the Fort of Faris, but are you getting the
Speaker 8: information that you need about the diplomatic objectives and how
Speaker 8: these talks are unfolding where you like us kind of
Speaker 8: fumbling a bit here trying to figure out who's doing
Speaker 8: what and who's running point.
Speaker 10: I mean it could be better. I mean even in
Speaker 10: the prior administration. Now we get calls from the Secretary
Speaker 10: of State, I think on.
Speaker 5: This democratic administration, right.
Speaker 10: I mean, they've been very close to the vest on
Speaker 10: this and I understand that. But it's also important to
Speaker 10: reach out to Congress, where under Article one, a separate
Speaker 10: but equal branch of government.
Speaker 11: And so I've been to Islamabad.
Speaker 10: He's right, it's a very long ways away and it's
Speaker 10: a very different.
Speaker 11: Part of the world.
Speaker 10: I do applaud Pakistana for stepping up and being an
Speaker 10: intermediary between the two parties. I'm not very sanguine under
Speaker 10: this regime in Iran that you're going to have anything
Speaker 10: in the short term. I plowed the President for not
Speaker 10: hitting you know, civilian infrastructure that's almost an active you
Speaker 10: know of, to be honest with you, and so I
Speaker 10: think this is the right path. I know the markets
Speaker 10: have responded very well to this. I don't think it's
Speaker 10: any best interest to see this drag on, the war
Speaker 10: drag on, if you will, when they see rising gas prices.
Speaker 10: There's a lot of pressure actually on the White House
Speaker 10: to get this thing resolved. But I don't know, and
Speaker 10: I think Iran knows that too, And I always am
Speaker 10: very skeptical.
Speaker 11: I think they're always trying to play us.
Speaker 2: But to that point, as we've talked about the reason
Speaker 2: this administration pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Agreement the
Speaker 2: first time, as they said, because Iran couldn't be trusted
Speaker 2: and even if they answered a deal, it wasn't worth
Speaker 2: a piece of paper it was written on. Those facts
Speaker 2: on the ground have not innately changed. Are they going
Speaker 2: to be able to get a better deal this time around?
Speaker 10: Well, the JCPOA would have legalized a nuclear bomb in
Speaker 10: Iran today. That's what we were saying back when we
Speaker 10: oppose that.
Speaker 11: You know.
Speaker 10: I look, as long as this regime is in power,
Speaker 10: you're gonna have this problem. And we've had this problem
Speaker 10: since nineteen seventy nine. Every present since it has said
Speaker 10: no nuclear you know, warhead in Iran, but no present's
Speaker 10: really done anything. They tried the jcpoa President Trump's first president,
Speaker 10: to actually.
Speaker 11: Act and hit Iran where it hurts.
Speaker 10: But I think, I do think in the early days
Speaker 10: of this, when the I Told was with his cabinet
Speaker 10: underground and they were annihilated and taken out, there was
Speaker 10: a hope that there could be a regime change at
Speaker 10: that point in time.
Speaker 11: But the fact is it didn't happen.
Speaker 10: And I don't know if the American people of the
Speaker 10: appetite to stay in long term to finish that job,
Speaker 10: or whether we hand that off.
Speaker 11: To Israel and let Masade try to do that. I
Speaker 11: don't know. But as long as this regime is in power,
Speaker 11: we're gonna have this problem.
Speaker 8: Let me ask you about that, because there's a big
Speaker 8: piece in the Times about the state of the new
Speaker 8: Supreme Leader grievously getting a lot of medical care from
Speaker 8: a very small group of physicians. People are passing notes
Speaker 8: to get to him because they're worried about giving an
Speaker 8: indication of where.
Speaker 7: He might he might be.
Speaker 8: But what you're talking about racist this point of who
Speaker 8: does the US need to talk to if it's that,
Speaker 8: if it's objectives here are to get some sort of
Speaker 8: regime attention to really change Iran?
Speaker 7: Was that a colossal misstep?
Speaker 8: Do you think by this administration killing those who could
Speaker 8: have been perhaps partners and trying to change the courts
Speaker 8: in Iran?
Speaker 12: Well after the.
Speaker 10: Twelve Day War they didn't step up and they were
Speaker 10: not willing negotiating partners.
Speaker 11: Now they're no longer.
Speaker 10: On this in this world, but there is a line
Speaker 10: of session in Iran and that's taking place. Their Foreign
Speaker 10: minister seems to be the one that really the sort
Speaker 10: of the point of contact for this negotiation. But they
Speaker 10: had you know, they're going to continue to you know,
Speaker 10: as long as this regimes in power. You know this
Speaker 10: problem and so I mean, they've been a source of
Speaker 10: torture and agony and terror in the Middle East since
Speaker 10: nineteen seventy nine, and until that regime is gone, it's
Speaker 10: gonna be hard to have peace in the Middle East.
Speaker 11: It's gonna be hard.
Speaker 10: As Jared Kushner goes there, who is the architect of
Speaker 10: the Abraham Accords, to have normalization between Saudi's and the
Speaker 10: Arab world and Israel. We were getting so close to that.
Speaker 10: That's when October seventh happened. Happened when those talks of
Speaker 10: normalization were going on, Iran saw that it lit up
Speaker 10: its proxies, and that's why we had October seventh.
Speaker 2: But given David's question and the fact that to your point,
Speaker 2: that regime did not fall, it is still there and
Speaker 2: possibly a hardened form.
Speaker 5: Is the Iran we have now.
Speaker 2: Potentially more dangerous and unpredictable than the Iran we had
Speaker 2: before this conflict started.
Speaker 10: I mean possibly their nuclear their military industrial complex has
Speaker 10: been severely degraded.
Speaker 11: And that's the good news.
Speaker 10: The bad news is the regime still continues to move forward,
Speaker 10: and I think you're gonna continue to have that problem
Speaker 10: of trusting them.
Speaker 11: And it's a very fanatical.
Speaker 10: This is not Venezuela in a decay appetation of Venezuela.
Speaker 10: That was a beautiful military operation. This one far more difficult.
Speaker 10: It's a larger country. It's hard to effectuate regime change
Speaker 10: without troops on the ground, which I would not recommend.
Speaker 10: I think we put our troops in the ground there,
Speaker 10: they become magnets for the jihadists. We saw that in Iraqi,
Speaker 10: in Afghanistan for twenty years. I don't think that would
Speaker 10: be a good idea. I do think Israel though, with Masad, Remember,
Speaker 10: they can carry out political assassinations. Congress has made that illegal.
Speaker 10: They can do things we can't, and I think maybe
Speaker 10: they're perhaps in a better position to try to effectuate that.
Speaker 11: It's very complicated.
Speaker 8: Though increasingly when we talk about Roan, we're talking about
Speaker 8: China and the three which China's advantaged by this war continuing.
Speaker 7: I'm curious if the President were to call you.
Speaker 8: Up and ask for your counsel ahead of his trip
Speaker 8: to China, what you would say, What are the objectives
Speaker 8: he should have in making that meeting that having that
Speaker 8: meeting with President Chief that's been postponed once already.
Speaker 11: I would lay conditions.
Speaker 10: I mean, the meeting itself is a concession of any
Speaker 10: president to meet with Chairman she who is perhaps our
Speaker 10: greatest adversary in the world right now, the great power competition,
Speaker 10: and I would lead conditions. First, I would say, hey,
Speaker 10: stop assisting Iran in the region. I would say the
Speaker 10: same thing to mister Putin, stop providing drone technology, stop
Speaker 10: providing targeting information on our military. I would say the
Speaker 10: same thing to Chairman she I'm not going to meet
Speaker 10: and have a daytime like meeting.
Speaker 11: If you're going to continue to arm RAN.
Speaker 10: With your software that helps with your drone technologies, that
Speaker 10: should be an absolute precondition to any meeting.
Speaker 2: We've only got about three seconds for RIF to let
Speaker 2: you go, But I do want to ask you about
Speaker 2: the cabinet shuffling we're seeing and the changes in leadership
Speaker 2: and the president's inner court. Do you think this is
Speaker 2: a positive thing or do you think this is a
Speaker 2: sign of disarray and chaos in the White House.
Speaker 10: Well, some was due to I think, you know, malpractice
Speaker 10: on the part of the cabinet members. I mean, the
Speaker 10: Labor Secretary had some really gross violations going on. I
Speaker 10: think Christynam is a colleague of mine. I respect her,
Speaker 10: but the you know what they did with Bavino and
Speaker 10: how they handled that situation. You know, I was a
Speaker 10: little surprised by the Attorney General Pam Body's firing. There's
Speaker 10: a piece though, that came out in Politico today. It
Speaker 10: talks about this very issue. He has a limited window
Speaker 10: on confirmations, so there are a few more of these
Speaker 10: firings in the queue, as I understand it. And so
Speaker 10: the advice was, look, if you're gonna do this, do
Speaker 10: it now while you have time to get confirmations done
Speaker 10: before the midterms.
Speaker 11: Otherwise, don't do it.
Speaker 5: He was an next, you want to preview, you have
Speaker 5: information that we don't.
Speaker 12: I'm not getting well say it for the dinner.
Speaker 11: You can read Politico.
Speaker 5: Person Michael call.
Speaker 12: Thank you so much.
Speaker 5: Always love me to see you, sir.
Speaker 3: Good Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 7: Right after this, global.
Speaker 2: Oil prices have climbed back towards their wartime high as
Speaker 2: the conflict in Iran hits the eighth week. But have
Speaker 2: we seen the worse of the sticker shock when it
Speaker 2: comes to energy prices?
Speaker 7: With us now in studio is Dan jurg And Vice
Speaker 7: chairman of SMP Global.
Speaker 8: He is also the Pulitzer Prize winning author of the
Speaker 8: prize the Epiquest for Oil, Money and Power and a
Speaker 8: new book, The New Map, Energy, Climate and the Clash
Speaker 8: of Nations. Dan, great to have you with us once again,
Speaker 8: and I want to pick up with what our college
Speaker 8: josh win Grove was saying just a moment ago, he's
Speaker 8: in West Palm Beach with the President. We talked about
Speaker 8: this notion of kind of energy price relativism that the
Speaker 8: President seems perhaps pleasantly surprised that oil prices hadn't climbed
Speaker 8: as much as maybe he feared they would, raising the
Speaker 8: specter of two hundred dollars a barrel oil. Oil prices
Speaker 8: are higher, but we're not at two thousand and eight prices,
Speaker 8: for instance. What do you make of what he's talking
Speaker 8: about there, the fact that the spike has been sizable,
Speaker 8: but maybe not as bad as he and others might
Speaker 8: have feared.
Speaker 13: I think it's well, that's true if you go back
Speaker 13: to their two thousand and eight or twelve to fourteen,
Speaker 13: prices were over one hundred dollars a barrel. If you
Speaker 13: put that in today's dollars, it's like one hundred and
Speaker 13: sixty dollars barrel. So we haven't seen that, and there
Speaker 13: wasn't that same kind of disruption that we're seeing now.
Speaker 13: But the question is it still the relative calm before
Speaker 13: the storm. The longer this goes on, the more the
Speaker 13: risk on the upside grow because the impacts are being felt.
Speaker 13: The last cargoes have arrived in Europe, in Asia and
Speaker 13: inventors are being drawn down.
Speaker 5: Is that what we're waiting for? Because my question is,
Speaker 5: why isn't it that bad?
Speaker 2: I'm confounded as a foreign policy person about the markets
Speaker 2: and the resilience and how any sign of life from
Speaker 2: these negotiations from the White House. They seem to look
Speaker 2: for any shred of evidence that things are going to
Speaker 2: be okay.
Speaker 5: Why is that happening?
Speaker 13: You see a divergence between the financial markets, which, if
Speaker 13: you say, respond to the news, you know a deal
Speaker 13: is near or they're going to negotiate, and the reality
Speaker 13: of people in Asia actually not having enough oil shortages,
Speaker 13: rationing businesses closing down, restaurants not operating because they don't
Speaker 13: have energy.
Speaker 12: So Asia is one area.
Speaker 13: Europe is starting to feel a particularly jet fuel and
Speaker 13: we're seeing it at the gasoline pump.
Speaker 12: But it's been there before.
Speaker 8: Talk a bit more about that, the pain that many
Speaker 8: people around the world are feeling. And yes, we're fixated
Speaker 8: on the market price and futures and all of that,
Speaker 8: but there's a very real cost that's already taking effect here.
Speaker 7: And I'm curious sort of how you assess that level
Speaker 7: of pain.
Speaker 13: I think, what was you know, I think one of
Speaker 13: the things that people didn't think about before this happened.
Speaker 13: If they thought about the Straight of Horror Moves, they
Speaker 13: thought about oil, maybe they thought about natural gas and energy.
Speaker 13: They didn't think about fertilizer. They didn't think about helium,
Speaker 13: they didn't think about aluminum, they didn't think about petrochemicals.
Speaker 13: And it turned out that that region is much more
Speaker 13: integrated into the global economy because of all the economic
Speaker 13: development there. So it produces what is it about thirty
Speaker 13: forty percent of the world's helium, which you need to
Speaker 13: make semiconductors.
Speaker 12: Or MRI machines.
Speaker 13: So this is actually unlike all the other things we
Speaker 13: would talk about in the last twenty years, this is
Speaker 13: a much bigger disruption of the global economy. But it's
Speaker 13: Asia because basically, economically, the Strait of Horror Moves went east.
Speaker 13: Eighty percent of the oil, ninety percent of the energy
Speaker 13: went to Asia, and that's where the shortfall is in
Speaker 13: ways that people really didn't model.
Speaker 8: I saw thought a bureau of the International energ Agency
Speaker 8: saying we were facing the biggest energy security threat in history,
Speaker 8: And I wonder if you agree with that assessment of
Speaker 8: the moment that I'm very curious what Dan Jurgen's perspective
Speaker 8: is on this moment.
Speaker 7: In the wider re.
Speaker 13: Story, I think this is the biggest energy disruption we've
Speaker 13: ever seen. But as you say, it's ironic that we're
Speaker 13: not seeing the full price impact, and so time is
Speaker 13: really the key factor.
Speaker 5: Here when you look at this, is it so bad?
Speaker 2: Because geographically there's just really no alternative as there have
Speaker 2: been in some other conflicts. There Obviously there are pipelines
Speaker 2: that go out to the red seat, but you just
Speaker 2: can't get that volume through anywhere else. And as we've
Speaker 2: also been talking about, how concerned are you that this
Speaker 2: could be a chronic problem. Just because Iran agrees to
Speaker 2: something in the room doesn't mean they're going to change
Speaker 2: their minds if they've shown they have the capacity to
Speaker 2: shut this down.
Speaker 13: Yeah, there was until this happened, there was a thing
Speaker 13: called the TSS, the traffic Separator system, where people understood
Speaker 13: that Okay, in an orderly way, this goes this way,
Speaker 13: this goes this way. Now there's going to be uncertainty
Speaker 13: over it, and it raises questions not only about the Strait,
Speaker 13: but it raises the question about freedom of seas, on
Speaker 13: which the world economy and world trade really depends.
Speaker 12: So I think there's we come out of this.
Speaker 13: There's going to be an uneasiness about it, and so
Speaker 13: much will be critical as to what the outcome will be.
Speaker 13: Will there be an actual system and understanding of how
Speaker 13: this operates or is it something that will fluctuate.
Speaker 7: We last spoke with you eight weeks ago, I think
Speaker 7: the beginning. At the beginning, yes, and it was on
Speaker 7: the eve.
Speaker 5: It was eight weeks ago.
Speaker 12: I feel like you were just here, Okay, sorry.
Speaker 8: Continue, You are the eve of going to run your
Speaker 8: conference in Texas Sarah Week, and I'm very curious with
Speaker 8: that in the rear view mirror, what those conversations were like.
Speaker 8: I imagine that your agenda had to be adjusted and
Speaker 8: changed as a result of what was happening in the
Speaker 8: Middle East, But what were the conversations, like executives that
Speaker 8: you had on stage, indeed had on the sidelines.
Speaker 12: So I think there were two things.
Speaker 13: One goes to what we were talking about, which is
Speaker 13: the sense that the market was underpricing risk. The logger
Speaker 13: goes on and I think that was a very strong
Speaker 13: message and from the company people you heard they were
Speaker 13: focused on constraints, logistics, how do you get supplies, how
Speaker 13: do you make up for supplies, So they were not
Speaker 13: looking at what the futures markets were doing expectations. They
Speaker 13: were saying, how do we deliver oil? The other big thing.
Speaker 13: Of course, the theme of the conference was big tech
Speaker 13: meets the energy industry. Where you're going to get the
Speaker 13: electricity for all the AI development and what will be
Speaker 13: the sources and so that was the theme that was
Speaker 13: in place before the crisis, but you could see really
Speaker 13: when it was in late January when the military build
Speaker 13: up started, and that's prices were already rising before the
Speaker 13: war started.
Speaker 5: So what is a solution for that?
Speaker 2: I mean, as we talk about big tech data centers,
Speaker 2: this sudden spike in requirement coming at the same time
Speaker 2: there is an energy crunch. Green energy is not very
Speaker 2: popular right now, Alternatives are not very popular right now.
Speaker 2: Is that something that needs to be reevaluated. They need
Speaker 2: to reevaluate how they move this oil through the region.
Speaker 2: Is anyone talking about an alternative long term plan so
Speaker 2: that we're not dealing with this every few years if
Speaker 2: this happens again.
Speaker 13: Well, I think out of this is going to come
Speaker 13: a bigger focus on energy security, and the golf countries
Speaker 13: themselves are going to say what do we do to
Speaker 13: protect ourselves? What do we do in terms of investment
Speaker 13: within the golf and outside the golf. But I think
Speaker 13: that you know, this is the first you know, we're
Speaker 13: in the China ev or twenty percent of the cars
Speaker 13: built in the world this year will be evs, and.
Speaker 12: That's going to get a tick up from this.
Speaker 8: Certainly, in our last block we talked about the blockade,
Speaker 8: the utility of it, the degree it's weighing on negotiations
Speaker 8: that are unfolding, and I know that there's been some
Speaker 8: debate about what that the presence of that blockade, the
Speaker 8: Straight being effectively closed, is going to mean for oil
Speaker 8: prices going forward. We have the President of the United
Speaker 8: States saying, I'm going to paraphrase him here, he's got
Speaker 8: all the time in the world. If that blockade persists,
Speaker 8: if we see the kind of stalemate that we have
Speaker 8: been seeing for three months or six months or whatever,
Speaker 8: what is the effect that's going to have here?
Speaker 13: Well, you know, of course, sitting here it's hard to
Speaker 13: believe that it will last for another three months or
Speaker 13: six months. But a lot's happened that we already this
Speaker 13: was all war was going to be open in five days.
Speaker 12: I think there are two things.
Speaker 13: One is a question and the leverage point about how
Speaker 13: bad is the Iranian economy how much strain can it take.
Speaker 12: Without the resources? And that's the bet of the US blockade.
Speaker 13: I think the Iranian blockade, which it basically is that
Speaker 13: they can wage war in the world economy and the
Speaker 13: pressure will be so great that they'll come out in
Speaker 13: a better position. And in a sense, it's a clash
Speaker 13: between these two blockades that's unfolding.
Speaker 12: Now.
Speaker 7: We haven't talked about, sorry on this point.
Speaker 8: We haven't talked about carg Island in many weeks now,
Speaker 8: but that was something that was kind of looming as
Speaker 8: something the US might do. Try to take carg Island
Speaker 8: or destroy Carg Island. Play out that scenario for US
Speaker 8: here too. If things really go south in Islamabad, if
Speaker 8: there isn't any advancement in these talks and President trumpes,
Speaker 8: he says he will pursues military action once again, targeting
Speaker 8: power plants and infrastructure and.
Speaker 7: Perhaps the refining buildings of Cargland. What is that?
Speaker 13: Winston Churchill said once that once the war starts, what happens,
Speaker 13: whatever your plan is, what happens is unforeseeable and uncontrollable,
Speaker 13: and we're sort of in that state right now. I
Speaker 13: think carg Island, as I understand, it's doable, but it's
Speaker 13: also very vulnerable from the shore because it's fairly close
Speaker 13: in and rainy and artillery and drones and so forth.
Speaker 13: I think one of the factors here that is new
Speaker 13: is that really the new form of warfare that was
Speaker 13: really beta tested in Ukraine is now being played out
Speaker 13: in the Gulf region, and that would affect decisions about
Speaker 13: carg Island.
Speaker 7: You're the cheap drones and.
Speaker 2: Rone and we're talking about It's been fascinating to see
Speaker 2: this pivot for vlenimber Zelensky's.
Speaker 5: Had a good run of luck with Orbon being ousted and.
Speaker 2: Hungary, and he's getting new allies in the Gulf as he's.
Speaker 5: In Saudi and visiting the region, and.
Speaker 12: Then paraphrase, he has some cards now he does.
Speaker 2: Indeed, I want to go back to something you were
Speaker 2: saying earlier, when you look at these two economies chalking
Speaker 2: about the eueronomy economy and how long they can last.
Speaker 2: But there's another issue here, and that's the US econom
Speaker 2: We were just talking against the abram about wars of attrition.
Speaker 2: When you look at who cannot last, if it's becomes
Speaker 2: a waiting game.
Speaker 5: You've got the very serious streights.
Speaker 2: The Iranian economy is in, but you've also got some
Speaker 2: not happy American consumers and a midterm coming up and
Speaker 2: a president a party who wants to get re elected.
Speaker 5: If this lingers into the fall, who blinks first?
Speaker 12: Well, we certainly know that there's one thing.
Speaker 13: We see it every two years, every four years, that
Speaker 13: gasoling prices really matter, and they really matter at the polls.
Speaker 13: And clearly that's in everybody's calculations right now. But you
Speaker 13: look at the position the US economy. We're going to
Speaker 13: grow what two percent or more this year that the
Speaker 13: and I think this is one of the things that
Speaker 13: the financial markets are so driven by what's happened with
Speaker 13: AI data centers that vast is it going to be
Speaker 13: eight hundred billion or trillion dollars of investment this year,
Speaker 13: that that's bolstering the overall economy. Obviously, gasoline prices remain
Speaker 13: it's the most sensitive political price in this country. But
Speaker 13: our economy overall is you know, is the envy of
Speaker 13: many other people, and a Ram's economy is actually in shambles.
Speaker 8: Let me put an unfair question to you as the
Speaker 8: last one. I know you're not an expert monetary policy,
Speaker 8: but we have a FED that's Adam and they can
Speaker 8: kind of see through this conflict, or they said that
Speaker 8: at the beginning of it. How difficult does that become
Speaker 8: if this conflict persist? What's the effecting to be?
Speaker 13: The question is where we're in an inflationary period beforehand
Speaker 13: for a lot of reasons, including the amount of expenditure
Speaker 13: and so forth, what's happened to supply chains once you
Speaker 13: build energy security, resilience in that ass costs and then
Speaker 13: simply all the inflationary impacts that come from these higher prices,
Speaker 13: and so you're going to in order to see through
Speaker 13: inflation through this period, you're going to need really good glasses.
Speaker 7: You're gonna need really good glasses. We will leave it
Speaker 7: there at Dan. You're going to have s and big
Speaker 7: level vice.
Speaker 5: Tim and I feel left out. You've a really good glass.
Speaker 5: It's a very.
Speaker 12: One does think about them.
Speaker 8: Thank you very much for our first show and now
Speaker 8: to have you again with that update. It is hugely,
Speaker 8: hugely beneficial. I think, as I say, this is going
Speaker 8: to be a critical issue with this FED meeting. I
Speaker 8: think that the decision is pretty much preordained, but I
Speaker 8: think there'll be a robust debate about how the FED
Speaker 8: looks at this conflict.
Speaker 7: The longer that it lasts.
Speaker 2: Right, we're not expecting them to take action, but this
Speaker 2: is going to be a big point of discussion.
Speaker 8: So we'll look to the minutes in a while to
Speaker 8: see sort of what the conversation was like there, and
Speaker 8: certainly when we have the succession, when there's a new
Speaker 8: FED chair, we'll see how he approaches the economy and
Speaker 8: the snowbox.
Speaker 4: Wa Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 6: Right after this, Trump says he wants.
Speaker 8: To clean up the Lincoln More Memorial reflect employs. Driving
Speaker 8: around the city yesterday, saw that it's empty.
Speaker 7: There's no water in it. They drained it, right, they've
Speaker 7: drained it.
Speaker 8: I drove by the FED building still under construction, and
Speaker 8: he wants to do this out of America's two and
Speaker 8: fifth birthday, which of course is this July.
Speaker 2: He says, that new floor color you're seeing on your
Speaker 2: screen there, it is quite blue.
Speaker 5: It is American flag blue.
Speaker 2: That's just one of the many architectural projects he's undertaking
Speaker 2: as president, and the biggest one may be yet to come.
Speaker 2: So this week we took a tour of the city
Speaker 2: with our colleague over at City Labs to look at
Speaker 2: how the president is trumpifying DC architecture and design. The
Speaker 2: nation's capital has a few nicknames, the District, the swamp,
Speaker 2: but it's also the city of monuments, memorializing the fall in,
Speaker 2: commemorating conflict, and preserving past presidents in stone. When you
Speaker 2: look at government architecture and people building monuments or associations
Speaker 2: or foundations or buildings that are literal foundations, what are they.
Speaker 14: Mostly for, Well, they stand for people, they stand for places,
Speaker 14: they stand for significant moments in history.
Speaker 2: Kristen Capps covers architecture for City Lab at Bloomberg. He
Speaker 2: took us to the site of a potential new addition
Speaker 2: to d c's landscape. There proposed Trump Triumphal arch.
Speaker 14: It's quite beautiful as you can see, and this monumental
Speaker 14: arc will beam at two hundred and fifty feet tall.
Speaker 2: The edifice would sit at this grassy patch in the
Speaker 2: middle of a traffic circle at the end of Memorial Bridge.
Speaker 12: This is where the arts will go.
Speaker 5: And it's going to be how high.
Speaker 14: Two hundred and fifty feet tall. As well is that
Speaker 14: the Lincoln Memorial is about one hundred feet tall, so
Speaker 14: it's going to be two and a half times then, So.
Speaker 2: They wanted to be taller than the Lincoln Memorial, much taller,
Speaker 2: much taller than almost any structure in Washington. The monument,
Speaker 2: colloquially called Arc to Trump, has already raised protests from
Speaker 2: Veterans group who say it will destroy the line of
Speaker 2: sight across the bridge.
Speaker 14: Memorial Circle is open for a reason. This is a
Speaker 14: site that stands between the Arlington House, which is Robert E.
Speaker 14: Lee's former home right and the Lincoln Memorial, which is
Speaker 14: of course the Memorial, the monument to Abraham Lincoln. So
Speaker 14: it's a symbolic bridge. It represents the reunion of the
Speaker 14: country after the Civil War. And you know, the detractors
Speaker 14: of the ARC say that it would just stand between
Speaker 14: that symbolic unity.
Speaker 5: You're supposed to be able to see from one down
Speaker 5: to the other.
Speaker 14: You're supposed to be able to see from one down
Speaker 14: to the other.
Speaker 7: Now the arch is going to be so big that the.
Speaker 14: Design rendering show that you could actually see Arlington House
Speaker 14: and the Lincoln Memorial from under it.
Speaker 5: Okay, but I don't know.
Speaker 14: That that necessarily means it's not an included block view.
Speaker 2: When asked, the President seemed unconcerned.
Speaker 7: That circle is set.
Speaker 10: They're vacant for one hundreds like one hundred and fifty
Speaker 10: years or same thing, and veterans are the ones that
Speaker 10: should like it.
Speaker 12: It's called a triumphal arm. It's in honor of the veterans.
Speaker 2: And this isn't the only place the current president is
Speaker 2: leaving his mark or his name from the Kennedy Center.
Speaker 5: When did this go out?
Speaker 14: Kristin, This was a real surprise when this went up.
Speaker 14: It just kind of happened overnight. There was no Act
Speaker 14: of Congress, there was no announcement. And it's above it's
Speaker 14: above Kennedy's name on the Kennedy.
Speaker 2: Memorial to the former US Institute of Peace.
Speaker 5: Did they stick on the letters?
Speaker 14: They did, Yes, this happened in December.
Speaker 12: It's now I think technical.
Speaker 14: The Board of Peace a slightly different organization from an.
Speaker 2: Aesthetic architecture perspective. Why do people put their names on things?
Speaker 2: And is that something you typically see in a democratic society.
Speaker 14: It's generally not the case that US presidents go and
Speaker 14: just put their names on buildings that they like or
Speaker 14: want to have some association with.
Speaker 2: Is there another president you can think of who has
Speaker 2: pushed through this many physical changes in Washington in recent memory.
Speaker 14: No, it's really interesting, you know, if you look back,
Speaker 14: the changes have been so sudden you have to really
Speaker 14: go back to the era of LBJA and great society.
Speaker 2: There's also the demolition of the historic White House East
Speaker 2: wing to make way for a ballroom, paving over the
Speaker 2: Rose Garden lawn into a patio, and gold embossed everything.
Speaker 14: There's a lot of gold lettering happening at the White
Speaker 14: House these days.
Speaker 5: Is that what style is that? Is that neoclassical? Is
Speaker 5: that early? Mar A Lago? Does it have a name?
Speaker 14: I think mar A Lago might be closer.
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, Well, the White House says the ballroom
Speaker 2: will be paid for by private funds. Funding for some
Speaker 2: of the other projects, including the arch, is still unclear.
Speaker 2: What's also unclear is how many of these alterations will
Speaker 2: be completed before the president leaves office or endure after
Speaker 2: he's gone. We're getting kicked out.
Speaker 14: They didn't put Trump on the security truck.
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, do you want to get that.
Speaker 2: It's not on the truck.
Speaker 5: And props to our crew who managed to get this shot.
Speaker 2: While who you don't see is the security guard almost
Speaker 2: immediately to his left there talking to us.
Speaker 5: We got one shot at that.
Speaker 2: We got about thirty seconds up there before they immediately.
Speaker 5: Shoomp, and we're like, you gotta go.
Speaker 7: Unbelievable.
Speaker 2: Stay with us for more on Bloomberg this weekend.
Speaker 8: Right after this, welcome back at this no time for
Speaker 8: this weekend's pointed news. Quid Quiz on the road this
Speaker 8: weekend in the nation's capital with another guest competitor.
Speaker 7: Who do we have with us, Christina?
Speaker 5: It's Jeffy Jeff Jeff Mason. I want to win this game,
Speaker 5: but you have to tell me how it works.
Speaker 11: Oh well, we can't.
Speaker 4: That is quiz Master listaloo it all right, here's how
Speaker 4: it's going to work. Okay, So there are three categories, Jeff, Okay,
Speaker 4: these are stories from the week.
Speaker 12: Okay.
Speaker 4: So if you've been keeping up to date with them,
Speaker 4: you have we used to have thirty.
Speaker 6: Now we have twelve.
Speaker 4: Because you're here, twelve chips in front of you. And
Speaker 4: what you do is, as I say, each category, think
Speaker 4: about how confident you are, like, do you want to
Speaker 4: place all your bets on the first category or maybe
Speaker 4: do you want to spread them out evenly?
Speaker 5: You know everybody wants different.
Speaker 11: Okay.
Speaker 4: But if you get it wrong and you place your chips,
Speaker 4: I get those chips, so you lose them. Yes, if
Speaker 4: you get it right and you keep them okay, all right, you're.
Speaker 7: The bonus round as well.
Speaker 12: And there's a bonus round.
Speaker 6: Okay, that's the best part.
Speaker 5: Okay, here are your categories.
Speaker 11: Okay.
Speaker 4: First category is insurance, second second category is crypto, and
Speaker 4: third category is media. Okay, sore, where are we placing
Speaker 4: our best?
Speaker 5: I think this might be David's week.
Speaker 7: Finally, I think it is like you're a secret insurance
Speaker 7: speed I am not.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna split evenly and pray to the news guys.
Speaker 8: Okay, putting most of my chips that media, most on media, okay,
Speaker 8: half the other two, and you're putting none on the first.
Speaker 8: It's the customary for me to skip the first category.
Speaker 4: Interesting getting into it let's get to the question. Okay,
Speaker 4: here's the question for insurance. Live event organizers are using
Speaker 4: which bespoke form of insurance to protect against nature related losses?
Speaker 4: So what is that type of insurance called?
Speaker 7: Wait, this isn't multiple.
Speaker 4: Style if you do, if you play it online, they
Speaker 4: do give your multiple choice.
Speaker 5: So if you want to play this is the real world.
Speaker 7: It's not online, Jeff.
Speaker 4: So here in the studio, we give you no choices.
Speaker 5: I don't even know if this is a real word.
Speaker 5: I have no idea.
Speaker 4: So again, live event organizers using which form of insurance
Speaker 4: to protect against nature related losses?
Speaker 5: Do we have answers awards?
Speaker 7: I'm gonna put you down, everybody.
Speaker 6: She's crossing off.
Speaker 5: She's crossing off, she's trying another route. Oh, Christine is right,
Speaker 5: that's ready, ready, okay, flipp it. David I wrote force Mature.
Speaker 5: Force Mature wrote disaster coverage.
Speaker 4: It's called parametric.
Speaker 7: I'm telling you, did you know that?
Speaker 4: Actually, Bad Bunny use it in his concerts in case
Speaker 4: they get rained out.
Speaker 5: So that's metrics para hand over the.
Speaker 2: Mont better. We gotta pull it together, man, I agree.
Speaker 2: I have never lost to him. If I lose to him,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be all right.
Speaker 5: It's gonna be a great disagreed.
Speaker 11: Okay, back to New York.
Speaker 4: But I think I might get you on crypto.
Speaker 6: I don't know.
Speaker 4: We'll see Crypto is the next category.
Speaker 5: And you put okay, you place the bed on it.
Speaker 4: Okay, crypto billionaire Justin's son is suing which crypto company,
Speaker 4: saying it is on the verse of collapse? What is
Speaker 4: the name crypto company?
Speaker 5: His name?
Speaker 4: Crypto billionaire Justin Son, he's suing this company.
Speaker 5: What is the name of that company?
Speaker 4: Okay, Jeff, you're not writing anything like the music.
Speaker 7: Chef likes the music. I can tell this is great,
Speaker 7: it's soothing.
Speaker 4: Yes, Okay, have we got our answers.
Speaker 6: Let's flip it.
Speaker 7: Okay, world liberty, financial.
Speaker 4: No ideas.
Speaker 12: Not the winner you have.
Speaker 2: This is his time.
Speaker 12: Is not my fault.
Speaker 5: You didn't know the answer the fault.
Speaker 6: Give me my fault.
Speaker 5: Got to be your fault. I am getting my.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 2: And here we go.
Speaker 5: Next one media media. You can make up for it.
Speaker 5: Here we go satirical news.
Speaker 4: Satirical news brand the Onion trying to license the intellectual
Speaker 4: property of which website.
Speaker 5: I have to remember the name of it. It's come on.
Speaker 5: Can I come to there we go? I got it,
Speaker 5: I got it, It's come to Okay, I got it.
Speaker 6: What is the name of that website?
Speaker 4: Good Answers, Generations on it, flip it.
Speaker 7: Dot com, you could try, job.
Speaker 12: I love that.
Speaker 5: You are right.
Speaker 7: It is info Wars Info Wars and.
Speaker 2: The Chow the logo and it's like a rainbow out
Speaker 2: has the Onion in the middle of it.
Speaker 5: Because they in the lawsuit they want it.
Speaker 8: Yeah, Suspend Collins used to be a colleague at MSNBC
Speaker 8: way back when, but he's now the CEO of the
Speaker 8: Onion and he has kind of engineered this entire purchase.
Speaker 7: It's a wild thing.
Speaker 5: Great, that's a great job.
Speaker 7: Yeah. What do they get out of that? That's interesting
Speaker 7: us talking about it.
Speaker 5: Are are you ready for a bonus?
Speaker 7: I certainly won the game the zero right now?
Speaker 5: Can I come back?
Speaker 6: And I can't come back to the bonus? I think
Speaker 6: it's all for your game.
Speaker 11: I won the game anyway.
Speaker 5: I'll give it you anyway. Okay, it's podcasters.
Speaker 7: Okay, yes, this is my day.
Speaker 6: Okay, pull it together.
Speaker 13: Here we go.
Speaker 4: The company Unwell is in turmoil with staff turnover, turnover
Speaker 4: and an influencer feud. So, which podcast host is the
Speaker 4: co CEO of that company? Unwell?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 6: No, unwell?
Speaker 5: Not doing not doing well?
Speaker 4: It's the you know your podcaster's day here on which
Speaker 4: podcast host is the co CEO of unwell?
Speaker 13: Time is not?
Speaker 6: Oh if you're not even trying.
Speaker 7: I used my idea. Alrighty Alex Cooper, Okay, Alex Cooper.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I said call me daddy, Alex. I couldn't remember
Speaker 5: the last name yet. Yes, you gets credit for.
Speaker 7: Alex Call your Daddy, Suber Call your Daddy.
Speaker 4: Yes, the fourth most popular podcast in the US.
Speaker 11: She's leading with.
Speaker 8: Alex wrote a big piece about this, and it's been
Speaker 8: a hit on the Terminal website.
Speaker 7: Check it out.
Speaker 2: I feel like this is the cycle of these young
Speaker 2: leaders who make all this money and then it seems
Speaker 2: to happen across industry.
Speaker 8: Sorry I can't speak from experience anyways. The point of
Speaker 8: news quiz can be taken at Bloomberg dot com. Slash pointed,
Speaker 8: you can find that on the app as well.
Speaker 5: He's going to be in family all day. We're going
Speaker 5: to have to We're gonna have to do this with
Speaker 5: David Gera as the letter.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us on today's Bloomberg This Weekend Podcast.
Speaker 2: Don't forget to tune in live for the show every
Speaker 2: Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at seven am Eastern.
Speaker 3: We're on Bloomberg Television, Radio and the Bloomberg Business App,
Speaker 3: bringing you unique takes and in depth interviews on news, politics, lifestyle,
Speaker 3: and culture.