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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: They're all for running a game.

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Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, slid sisting just glorious extrocution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent.

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Speaker 2: Of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that? Shop with mind?

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Speaker 2: Good buddy, and that's why you see yours beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 4: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying the whole It's

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Speaker 1: left to of the wide eyed, drilled pibus. How old

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Speaker 1: Earth pick that happens? Oh, and welcome to Wondergulf, the

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Speaker 1: soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is

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Speaker 1: Michael Lieboff, and as always I will be joined by

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Speaker 1: my Action colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dupundo. But before

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Speaker 1: I bring in these two manches to break down this

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Speaker 1: weekend's Premier League slate, I would like to remind you,

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Speaker 1: dear listener, that we are holding a contest and all

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Speaker 1: you need to do to enter said contest is leave

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Speaker 1: us a nice review on the Wonder Goal podcast feed.

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Speaker 1: If you do that and leave your Twitter handle in

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Speaker 1: the review, you will automatically be entered in a contest

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Speaker 1: to win the soccer jersey of your choice from this season.

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Speaker 1: And with that out of the way, let's dive in

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Speaker 1: to this week's Premier League headliner Al Sakiko. That's what

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Speaker 1: all the cool kids are calling it. It's Tottenham Hotspur

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Speaker 1: plus one ninety home underdogs taking on Manchester United. There

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Speaker 1: plus one forty the draw plus two sixty. This one

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Speaker 1: is a twelve thirty kickoff on Saturday. It is going

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Speaker 1: to be hilarious. I think I think every English soccer

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Speaker 1: writer in the world has their quill sharpened. They're all

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Speaker 1: heading to London for this match to dig either their

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Speaker 1: quill into Nunospirito Santo or Ole Gunnar solshar Bjay. Who

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Speaker 1: do you think comes.

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Speaker 2: Out of this match on scathe Well neither manager honestly.

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Speaker 3: But you know what's crazy is that I actually have

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Speaker 3: some projected value on Manchester United in this one, and

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Speaker 3: I'm going to tell you why. Yes, Manchester United's got

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Speaker 3: a load of problems defensively right now, especially in transition,

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Speaker 3: but I don't think that Tottenham is really the team

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Speaker 3: that's going to be able to exploit them in transition,

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Speaker 3: Like Liverpool did last Sunday.

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Speaker 2: I mean the Nuno Spurs, they're unbelievably bad.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think Nuno should be close for losing

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Speaker 3: his job than Oldney soul Start should be losing his

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Speaker 3: job at Manchester United. Tottham is only creating point nine

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Speaker 3: to nine non penalty expected goals for match. That's seventeenth

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Speaker 3: in the Premier League. They're averaging ten point five six

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Speaker 3: shots per ninety that's nineteenth in the Premier League. They've

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Speaker 3: created only five big scoring chances that's sixteenth, and they're

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Speaker 3: averaging only eleven point one box centuries per ninety minutes.

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Speaker 3: That's fifteenth in the Premier League. On top of all

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Speaker 3: of that, they're not even able to win the ball

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Speaker 3: back in the middle of the field and go forward

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Speaker 3: in transition because they have the eighteenth best pressure success

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Speaker 3: rate and they're nineteenth in ball recoveries. I mean, this

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Speaker 3: team is so unbelievably bad and I kind of wanted

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Speaker 3: to ask you guys, how much do we think Harry

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Speaker 3: King's going to go for at the January Transporter Because

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Speaker 3: he clearly doesn't want to be a todt him does

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Speaker 3: not even seem like he wants to be on the

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Speaker 3: field with them. That goal he gave up to Mickel Antonio,

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Speaker 3: that was just zero effort. That was just a guy

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Speaker 3: who's his head is somewhere else. He only has one

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Speaker 3: goal in eight appearances in the Premier League, a point

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Speaker 3: two to seven expectacle per ninety minute scoring rate. That's

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Speaker 3: pathetic for a guy like Harry Kane. I mean, Manchester

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Speaker 3: unit has got their problems, but you know, offensively they're

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Speaker 3: still averaging one point four to four non penalty expectacles

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Speaker 3: for match, their third and shots per ninety and their

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Speaker 3: third and box centuries. So I have Manchester United projected

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Speaker 3: at plus one twenty three and I'm going to keep

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Speaker 3: fading the Spurs team until they show any sign of life.

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Speaker 2: So give me Manchester United plus one forty.

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Speaker 1: Going to Manchester United after they got molly wopped. That

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Speaker 1: was the word you used on our last podcast. You

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Speaker 1: said you thought Liverpool was going to mollywop Manchester United.

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Speaker 1: I think you underestimated it. A five zero win.

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Speaker 2: Yeah for Liverpool Sunday. I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: I think the only way to play this is United

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Speaker 1: on the money line. If you do, I'm just I might.

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Speaker 1: If I'm going to watch it just to have a

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Speaker 1: little action on it. Bet Manchester United. But I don't

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Speaker 1: think there's too much value either way. Anthony would about you.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, Tottenham, we're pretty mediocre against west Ham.

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Speaker 4: I didn't think they were particularly bad against west Ham.

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Speaker 4: I thought there was a couple of set pieces that

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Speaker 4: they struggled to defend, but other than that, there weren't

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Speaker 4: many clear chances at either end, and Spurs had a

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Speaker 4: few moves that almost came off. You know, Kane played

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Speaker 4: a poor pass to Son, someone played a poor pass

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Speaker 4: to Kane. They really haven't had that connection linking up

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Speaker 4: thus far. This really comes down to one thing, and

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Speaker 4: it's United has major defensive issues that stem from the

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Speaker 4: top and as Christiano Ronaldo has the fewest pressures in

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Speaker 4: the league, they have no way of implementing any kind

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Speaker 4: of pressing system. They have no way to win the

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Speaker 4: ball back. Now, the question is does that matter against Tottenham,

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Speaker 4: who also has issues progressing the ball at the field,

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Speaker 4: who have often looked lost with the ball at their

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Speaker 4: feet and not really had a clear plan to get

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Speaker 4: the ball into the final there to get to do

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Speaker 4: their good attackers. Well, does that matter in this game?

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Speaker 4: I don't really think it does. You have kind of

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Speaker 4: it's kind of a stoppable force against a movable object.

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Speaker 4: Tottam doesn't want the ball. United wants the ball. So

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Speaker 4: I think we're going to have a long periods of

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Speaker 4: United having the ball and kind of their defensive possession

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Speaker 4: similar to what they did last year. Tottenham, though, is

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Speaker 4: good on the counter and so I don't trust United's

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Speaker 4: defense right now in transition against what I think is

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Speaker 4: will be a good counter attacking Tottenham side. But I

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Speaker 4: think United will get some chances here. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna look to play the United over one and

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Speaker 4: a half goals. That's team total right now, it's plus

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Speaker 4: one oh five. I really have questions about this Tottenham defense.

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Speaker 4: They've looked very shaky against the good teams they've played

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Speaker 4: this season, and so that's where I'm gonna be looking.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna wait for lineups though, because I'm concerned we

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Speaker 4: may see some serious shakeup from only going to Sol

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Speaker 4: Shar knowing he's coaching for his job. Although those United

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Speaker 4: teams always seem to find their best performances when Solshar

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Speaker 4: is in danger, I wonder, now, you know, is that

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Speaker 4: still the same. Do the players want Olay around? Because

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Speaker 4: that's the one thing that can really throw this off.

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Speaker 4: If you're the players in the dressing room and you're

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Speaker 4: tired of Olay, you know, only one bad performance on

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Speaker 4: Sunday is enough to get him out. So maybe that's

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Speaker 4: in the back of the mind to some of these players.

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Speaker 4: You know, I don't tend to get into the motivational

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Speaker 4: stuff too much, but that's definitely something when the manager

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Speaker 4: is on his last legs and needs a win. Do

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Speaker 4: the players want to win for this guy? It's not clear.

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Speaker 4: It's not clear that they wouldn't prefer maybe Antonio Conte.

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Speaker 4: So I'm going to lean towards the United Team toll

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Speaker 4: over because I trust their offense, don't trust the defense whatsoever.

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Speaker 4: But you know, we'll see how this ends up looking

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Speaker 4: when the lineups come out Sunday or Saturday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: It's funny because today we're recording this. On Wednesday, we

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Speaker 1: saw a team that we all liked their chances, Ryo

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Speaker 1: Vacano to pull the upset against Barcelona. They did. Ronald

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Speaker 1: Cooman gets sacked pretty soon after that, and that was

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Speaker 1: something I brought up. You know, is this Barcelona team.

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Speaker 1: They know that Cooman was kind of a lame duck

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Speaker 1: coach and does that go into your motivation for a game?

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Speaker 1: And I think both of these teams we see similar situations.

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Speaker 1: And it also makes things kind of complicated for the

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Speaker 1: clubs because look, if they want to get rid of

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Speaker 1: Nuno or if they want to get rid of Solshar,

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Speaker 1: now they're competing with Barcelona, so they kind of got

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Speaker 1: to do it a little bit quicker. It's some interesting

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Speaker 1: fodder for stuff. Like you said, we don't really tend

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Speaker 1: to get into the motivational stuff here. Mostly stick to

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Speaker 1: the numbers and that's why Brighton breaks our heart every week.

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Speaker 1: But it's just interesting stuff to think about when you

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Speaker 1: are capping a match. With that, we can move on

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Speaker 1: to the first kickoff on Saturday morning. It's a seven

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Speaker 1: thirty am start between Leicester at home. They're plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty slight favorites against Arsenal plus one eighty the draw

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Speaker 1: coming back plus two to forty five. I've been going

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Speaker 1: against this lesser team all season and I'm going to

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Speaker 1: abandon that ship and back Lester at plus one fifty.

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Speaker 1: Their offense started to come to life the past month

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Speaker 1: or so. They're now fourth in non penalty expected goals

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Speaker 1: in Premier League. Arsenal defense still pretty shaky in that

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Speaker 1: same statistics, So I like that Lester be able to

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Speaker 1: pull one over here on the gunners, Anthony anything on

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Speaker 1: this one, Yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 4: I'm on the lesser drawn no Bett line at minus

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Speaker 4: one fifteen. My numbers make it one thirty. Trusting my

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Speaker 4: numbers here. You mentioned it. Leicester started the season really poorly.

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Speaker 4: They've started to turn that around. They had a devastating

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Speaker 4: counter attack that really ripped apart Brentford and won that

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Speaker 4: game for them when I didn't think they were the

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Speaker 4: better team for large stretches of that match. But now

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Speaker 4: they're at home, they're facing an Arsenal team that is

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Speaker 4: going to have a lot of boring, slow possession, that

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Speaker 4: is going to look to break down opponents. I was

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Speaker 4: against them last week that was a bad call. But

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Speaker 4: this time they're going on the road. Their defense has

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Speaker 4: been very shaky throughout the course of the season. There

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Speaker 4: bottom five or six, and most of the defensive metrics

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Speaker 4: we look at. Their offense is you know, playing a

186
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Speaker 4: little better. But again, Lester and Brendon Rodgers will be

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Speaker 4: able to get numbers behind the ball here. They're not

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Speaker 4: going to be as vulnerable in transition because Arsenal doesn't

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Speaker 4: really play that way. So that's taking out what I

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Speaker 4: think is the biggest weakness in this Lester team. Kier

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Speaker 4: and Tierney may not play. I know, the left back

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Speaker 4: they had play on Friday had a great game, but

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Speaker 4: Tierney is still their best crossing player and that's a

194
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Speaker 4: big way to get at this Lester team that's really

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Speaker 4: struggled with crosses. So I think I like Lester on

196
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Speaker 4: the drawing. No bet line at home here to get

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Speaker 4: a result. You know, I could definitely see this something

198
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Speaker 4: in the draw, but I think Lester is the more

199
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Speaker 4: likely winner.

200
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Speaker 1: EJ. You're an Arsenal fan, but you have no problem

201
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Speaker 1: going against Arsenal like a true cold hearted better What

202
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Speaker 1: are you doing for this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just to show that I'm unbiased Lester, I'm also

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Speaker 3: going Lester drawn.

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Speaker 1: No bet.

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Speaker 3: Lester's offense, like you guys mentioned, fantastic since September nineteenth

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Speaker 3: when they lost to brighton seven point one seven expected

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Speaker 3: goals in the last four matches. Now, Jamie Varready will

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Speaker 3: be out for this match, but like we mentioned last week,

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Speaker 3: Leinster has a ton of death at the striker position

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Speaker 3: right now with collecch ian Nacho and Patsadaca. Ianacho's averaging

212
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Speaker 3: point five to nine expected the goals plus expected assists

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Speaker 3: and his nine appearances in Daca.

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Speaker 2: You know he's played quite a bit in the Europa League.

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Speaker 3: He's only gotten seventy three minutes in the Premier League,

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Speaker 3: but when he's come on, he's just been instant offense.

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Speaker 3: One point two two expected goals, one point zero nine

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Speaker 3: expected assists and only you know those seventy three minutes.

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Speaker 3: Defense is obviously still an issue for the Leicester right now.

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Speaker 3: But in that Brentford match, I mean obviously Brentford created

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Speaker 3: the big chance right away and then after that they

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Speaker 3: didn't register a shot with a next year rating over

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Speaker 3: point one to three. So Leicester's defense really put the

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Speaker 3: buckles down and stopped the beast from trying to get in.

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Speaker 3: Arsenal has looked better. They looked great against aston Ville

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Speaker 3: LA last Friday, but like Anthony mentioned, they do have

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Speaker 3: some injury and illness issues coming to this. Ben White

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Speaker 3: got subbed off in the League Cup match with an illness.

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Speaker 3: Like you said, Kieran Tierney's also questionable. Martin Odegard also

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Speaker 3: questionable for this once a couple things to monitor with

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Speaker 3: Arsenal and you guys already mentioned. I mean, their defense

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Speaker 3: is lying one point seventy one non penalty expected goals

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Speaker 3: for match this season, so going against one of the

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Speaker 3: best offenses potentially no Keran Tierney or no bed White

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Speaker 3: is just a really bad matchup. I have Lester projected

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Speaker 3: at plus one seventeen, so I agree with the guys

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Speaker 3: Toronto bett line at minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 1: Three for three on leices They're there. You know what

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Speaker 1: team does not mind all the rumors swirling ole Gon

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Speaker 1: or Solshar, maybe even the Barcelona sacking. That's Newcastle United

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Speaker 1: because a murderous regime just took over that team, so

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Speaker 1: maybe get some of the attention taken off of them

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Speaker 1: is not a bad thing for that club. They're plus

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Speaker 1: eight hundred underdogs against Chelsea who are minus two seventy

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Speaker 1: five on the road. The draw off four to one.

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Speaker 1: This is a ten am Saturday kickoff. All three of

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Speaker 1: us kind of think that Chelsea is a little overvalued

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Speaker 1: in the betting market. One of the best teams in

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Speaker 1: the world share but that doesn't mean that they can't

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Speaker 1: be a little overvalued. We've been trying to go against them.

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Speaker 1: They played Malmo, then they played Norwich City and now

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Speaker 1: they're playing Newcastle. So once again it's kind of hard

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Speaker 1: to stomach a bet against them. But I do like

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Speaker 1: the over here two and three quarters goals. The Chelsea

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Speaker 1: defense is due to let some goals in Newcastle's offense.

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Speaker 1: Nothing to write home about, but nothing to to too terrible.

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Speaker 1: I don't think Chelsea will have a problem scoring too.

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Speaker 1: I think that they could probably score three. Hell, they

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Speaker 1: just scored seven a couple days ago, so I like

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Speaker 1: to over I would play it up to like three

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Speaker 1: and a half. If you want to chase like an

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Speaker 1: alternate number, go right ahead, go big price hunting. But

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Speaker 1: that's how I'm playing this one. BJ. What about you.

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Speaker 3: I can't get behind this Newcastle defense right now. I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 3: they did draw with Crystal Palace, but they got thoroughly

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Speaker 3: dominated in that match. Their defensive numbers are really bad

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Speaker 3: this season. One point sixty seven non penalty expected goals

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Speaker 3: allowed per match and eighteen big scoring chances also allowed

269
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Speaker 3: in nine matches is really really bad. Offensively, they have

270
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Speaker 3: been great either only one point zero six expected goals

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Speaker 3: per match. But they do have some talented guys like

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Speaker 3: Callum Wilson and Alan Saint Maximan who can get in

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Speaker 3: behind this Chelsea back line. And hey, I mean Newcastle

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Speaker 3: has gotten on the board in eight of their nine

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Speaker 3: matches this season, so and we've talked about it length,

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Speaker 3: but Chelsea is so overdue to concede goals it's not

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Speaker 3: even funny. They've allowed three goals this season off of

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Speaker 3: ten point zero two expected goals.

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Speaker 2: That's crazy.

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Speaker 3: And even offensively, they've scored twenty three goals off sixteen

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Speaker 3: point five to five expected goals, so they're running incredibly hot.

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Speaker 3: I mean, even then, there's seven zero win against Norwich

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Speaker 3: they only created two point nine to four expected goals,

284
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Speaker 3: and also Romolucacoo and Timo Werner going to be out

285
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Speaker 3: for this match. So I can't get a high Newcastle

286
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Speaker 3: on the spread or the money line just because of

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Speaker 3: how bad their defense is. So instead, I'm going to

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Speaker 3: take their team total over half goal at minus one

289
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Speaker 3: ten and hope they get on the board against this

290
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Speaker 3: Chelsea defense that is so overdue to concede a goal.

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Speaker 1: Anthony, you've basically been banging that drum, that Chelsea defensive

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Speaker 1: regression drump for a month. Now, are you going to

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Speaker 1: keep banging it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, until I'm broke. You know, Chelsea was a team

295
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Speaker 4: I consistently showed value on last season at the end

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Speaker 4: of the Frank Lampard regime, when the performances were getting worse,

297
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Speaker 4: it started to pick up that they were playing at

298
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Speaker 4: a lower level. But even throughout most of the fall

299
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Speaker 4: and then into the spring, they were pretty undervalued, I thought,

300
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Speaker 4: and I ended up backing them quite a bit. And

301
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Speaker 4: the pendulum swings. They went from a very underperforming attacking team,

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Speaker 4: you know, led by Team Overner notoriously, but there were

303
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Speaker 4: others and they're you know, finishing everything. And you know,

304
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Speaker 4: the Norwich game was a good win against a team

305
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Speaker 4: that Norwich have traditionally really struggled against the Big six

306
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Speaker 4: sides because of how they like to play. You know,

307
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Speaker 4: they try to play like a mid table team with

308
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Speaker 4: their passing and possession structures and then they just get

309
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Speaker 4: completely ripped apart. So that was a bad call on

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Speaker 4: my part, you know, back in them against Chelsea. But

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Speaker 4: the truth still remains, and I think Newcastle is a

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Speaker 4: better team to get at this Chelsea defense than Norwich.

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Speaker 4: Was Chelsea sixth best defense and expected goals allowed in

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Speaker 4: games that are either tied or they're up a goal

315
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Speaker 4: this year, So not quite as bad as the overall

316
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Speaker 4: numbers because of those, you know, the red card that

317
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Speaker 4: had a serious impact in that Liverpool game, but still

318
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Speaker 4: do for some regression. And I understand that Edward Mendy

319
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,199
Speaker 4: has saved more goals for his team than anybody in

320
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Speaker 4: Europe's top five leagues. Good for him, it doesn't matter

321
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Speaker 4: if you consider him the best goal of the world

322
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Speaker 4: or not. That's an unsustainable pace and you know the

323
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Speaker 4: regression is eventually coming. And you know, I probab we

324
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Speaker 4: should have been smarter and you know, not taking you know,

325
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Speaker 4: some pretty awful teams in Mamo and Noorich. But like

326
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Speaker 4: bj mentioned, Newcastle has shown an ability to counterattack effectively

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Speaker 4: through Saint maximum through Wilson, and so I think there

328
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Speaker 4: will be a couple of chances. I think they'll be

329
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Speaker 4: able to get one or two good chances and hopefully

330
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Speaker 4: Wilson will take it and we can get on the

331
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Speaker 4: board here. So I agree with BJA again, a lot

332
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Speaker 4: of agreement between us to this episode. Newcastle over half

333
00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:24,680
Speaker 4: a goal is minus one ten.

334
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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's not good that we're agreeing so much.

335
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Speaker 4: Not good at all.

336
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Speaker 1: It's always nice to see you two getting along. Liverpool

337
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,600
Speaker 1: minus four hundred home favorites against Brighton, who are ten

338
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,560
Speaker 1: to one right now, that draw up plus five point fifty.

339
00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,400
Speaker 1: This is another ten am Saturday kickoff. The question for

340
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,960
Speaker 1: me is can Brighton's defense hold up? They did not

341
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Speaker 1: do that against Manchester City last weekend. I couldn't watch

342
00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:46,760
Speaker 1: the game. I was doing something, and while I was

343
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,240
Speaker 1: doing it, I asked my Alexa what the score was

344
00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,240
Speaker 1: because I was on the under and she told me

345
00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,440
Speaker 1: it was three nil and like the whatever thirty eighth

346
00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,080
Speaker 1: minute or something, and that was thoroughly depressing. A really

347
00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,120
Speaker 1: terrible way to lose a bet, to hear a robot

348
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,240
Speaker 1: tell you that you did lose it. But I'll go

349
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,560
Speaker 1: to Brighton here ten to one too big. We love

350
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Speaker 1: this team. They're good enough that when they're this at

351
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Speaker 1: this number, you should always be interested. I don't think

352
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,480
Speaker 1: I've ever won a bet against Liverpool and that streak

353
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,640
Speaker 1: will probably continue this week. BJ Are you going with

354
00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:12,520
Speaker 1: your seagulls?

355
00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:14,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I'm not looking forward to this one. I mean,

356
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,160
Speaker 3: Liverpool just looks unstoppable right now. But I think we're

357
00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,840
Speaker 3: reaching a point where Liverpool is going to be overvalued

358
00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,560
Speaker 3: in pretty much every match where they play in inferior opponents.

359
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,680
Speaker 3: I mean, their offense with Mosala is averaging two point

360
00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,040
Speaker 3: seven to seven non penalty expected goals per match and

361
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,560
Speaker 3: they're number one in pretty much every single offensive metric.

362
00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:33,120
Speaker 3: But I do think there are a couple things that

363
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,800
Speaker 3: Brighton can do to give them some trouble. So first off,

364
00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,800
Speaker 3: Brighton will be able to handle Liverpool's high press because

365
00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:41,400
Speaker 3: their fourth and offensive passes per defensive action and third

366
00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,040
Speaker 3: and pressure success rate allowed. Defensively, they also have the

367
00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:46,920
Speaker 3: third best pressure success rate in Liverpool's twelfth against pressure

368
00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,720
Speaker 3: this season. So to beat Liverpool you almost have to

369
00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:51,720
Speaker 3: beat them at their own game, and Brighton is capable

370
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,440
Speaker 3: of doing that. Plus, you know, their best midfielder, Basuma,

371
00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,480
Speaker 3: came off the bench in the League Cup match against

372
00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,040
Speaker 3: Lester on Wednesday, so hopefully he'll be back in the

373
00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:02,600
Speaker 3: lineup along with you Waypoo, who are two incredible pressing midfielders,

374
00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,040
Speaker 3: and Liverpool is a little banged up in the midfield.

375
00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:06,840
Speaker 3: You know, James Milner and Naby Kato went off with

376
00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:08,600
Speaker 3: injuries against Manchester United.

377
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:10,400
Speaker 2: Thiago is still out, so they're.

378
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:12,920
Speaker 3: Pretty thin in the midfield, which will favor Brighton if

379
00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:16,520
Speaker 3: and Waypoo and Basuma are playing together, and I really

380
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,840
Speaker 3: hope they are. But projection wise, I only have Liverpool

381
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,320
Speaker 3: at minus two three, so I do like Brighton spread

382
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 3: of plus two at minus one forty, but I would

383
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 3: caution people to wait until Saturday for two reasons. One,

384
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,640
Speaker 3: I want to make sure that Basuma and Waypoo are

385
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 3: in the lineup together, and second off, I think Liverpool

386
00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:32,600
Speaker 3: is going to get Steen hard on Saturday.

387
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:33,600
Speaker 2: Everybody just sees.

388
00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:35,160
Speaker 3: Liverpool how good they are, and they might go up

389
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 3: to minus four thirty minus four fifty and you might

390
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:39,320
Speaker 3: be able to get Brighton at our price. So at

391
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,000
Speaker 3: the time of taking this, I'll take Brighton plus two

392
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 3: at minus one forty.

393
00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:42,240
Speaker 2: Yeah.

394
00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,640
Speaker 1: I don't know who Georgia or Alabama are playing this

395
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 1: weekend in college football, but I want to be surprised

396
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 1: if some books take a lot of get out of

397
00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,640
Speaker 1: jail free cards with parlays with Liverpool and one of

398
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 1: those SEC powerhouses. Anthony, you have to be joining us here,

399
00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:59,000
Speaker 1: right backing bright in some way.

400
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I think I'm starting to cool a

401
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,760
Speaker 4: little bit and I think my best call last week

402
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 4: was staying off the Brighton train for a change, but

403
00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:09,760
Speaker 4: they got throttled. But I think City is just a

404
00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,000
Speaker 4: bad matchup. City is just a much better version of

405
00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 4: what Brighton wants to do, whereas what BJ mentioned. You know,

406
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,240
Speaker 4: everybody wants to talk about how amazing Liverpool was against

407
00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:19,600
Speaker 4: Manchester United. I actually didn't think they were that good.

408
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,200
Speaker 4: I thought it was more of a United being really bad.

409
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:26,959
Speaker 4: Liverpool were very sloppy in the midfield. They still allowed

410
00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,240
Speaker 4: eleven shots in the first forty minutes of the game.

411
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 4: They allowed over one and a half expected goals to

412
00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,119
Speaker 4: Manchester United. They played one of the lightest midfields that

413
00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 4: they can possibly play. Fabinho is questionable for this match.

414
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 4: When Fabinho's out, it forces Henderson to do more running

415
00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:42,920
Speaker 4: that he's not really able to do anymore. He doesn't

416
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:44,680
Speaker 4: quite have the defensive solidity that he used to do

417
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:45,639
Speaker 4: as he's getting older.

418
00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 2: Tiago is out.

419
00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,560
Speaker 4: He's such a great press resistant player. He's so good

420
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,640
Speaker 4: at keeping the ball, recycling possession. He's likely not going

421
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 4: to play like you mentioned James Milner is unlikely to play,

422
00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,400
Speaker 4: so who's Liverpool going to in this midfield? And Kop

423
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,119
Speaker 4: may make the same choice. He may say, we're going

424
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 4: to outscore Brighton and they probably will, and they almost

425
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 4: certainly will outscore Brighton in this game. But they're also

426
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,120
Speaker 4: going to be open at the back in the same way,

427
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:12,520
Speaker 4: and for that reason, I'm taking both teams to score

428
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 4: at plus one oh five. I think Brighton gets on

429
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,600
Speaker 4: the board here. Brighton, as bj mentioned, pretty press resistant.

430
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:19,679
Speaker 4: We'll be able to play through the press a little bit,

431
00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:22,439
Speaker 4: get together some passing combinations and move the ball up

432
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 4: the field and not be overwhelmed by the Liverpool press.

433
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 4: So I think that's a big part of this one

434
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:31,080
Speaker 4: and two. Liverpool's defense is due for some negative aggression.

435
00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 4: They've allowed about six actual goals from a little over

436
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 4: ten expected. You know, Manchester United probably should have got one,

437
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,720
Speaker 4: maybe even two in that game. So, like I mentioned,

438
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:43,160
Speaker 4: it wasn't a completely comprehensive performance from Liverpool reading between

439
00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,159
Speaker 4: the lines, looking at some of the numbers, and if

440
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 4: they play a similarly light midfield, it doesn't have a

441
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 4: lot of defensive solidity. I think Brighton gets on the

442
00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 4: board here. So I like the Seagulls and the Reds,

443
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 4: both teams to score plus one oh five.

444
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,239
Speaker 1: Liverpool's main title contender right now, I would say man

445
00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 1: City there minus six fifty home favorites against Crystal Palace,

446
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 1: the team that I've really liked to back this year.

447
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 1: They're sixteen to one on the money line the draw

448
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,640
Speaker 1: plus seven fifty. This is another ten am Saturday kickoff.

449
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 1: City's defense is still spectacular. And we said last week

450
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 1: when we backed the Brighton City under, the question is

451
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 1: how many goals is Manchester City is going to score?

452
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 1: And I had enough faith in the Brighton defense that

453
00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 1: they wouldn't be able to push the to catch the

454
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 1: over by themselves. That was wrong. City did just that.

455
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:27,680
Speaker 1: I guess what I'm going to do the same exact

456
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 1: thing this week. Can the Palace defense play well enough

457
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 1: to prevent City from scoring over three goals? Because I

458
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,640
Speaker 1: think that's the only way that this over really will cash.

459
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 1: So I like the under plus one twenty five at

460
00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:40,320
Speaker 1: under three. I mean, the man City unders, they're so

461
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,160
Speaker 1: hard to look away from, right, Bijay.

462
00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll join you on the pain train, because I mean,

463
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:45,879
Speaker 3: the mentioned city is awesome.

464
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 2: Like, what else are we going to say?

465
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 3: They have a plus sixteen point three four non pound

466
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 3: expected goals in nine matches, so they're just as incredibly

467
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,640
Speaker 3: dominant as they were last year. And this is another

468
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:55,400
Speaker 3: match where they're going to have a large year possession

469
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,640
Speaker 3: because Liverorry Net Liverpool. Crystal Palace is not the time

470
00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 3: team that Stylistic League was going to play in open

471
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 3: game with Pepgartiola, mainly to the fact that their defense

472
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,400
Speaker 3: is much improved from last season. You know, I really

473
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:07,639
Speaker 3: like what Crystal Palace did in the transfer window, you know,

474
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 3: selling off a lot of their old underperforming players and

475
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 3: bringing in young, exciting prospects like Mark Gia and Jockum

476
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 3: Anderson as a center back pairing, which has been really

477
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 3: good this season. The Crystal Palace is only allowing one

478
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,360
Speaker 3: point one five non penalty expected goals per match, when

479
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,879
Speaker 3: last season they allowed one point five to five. However,

480
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 3: their offense is still really struggling eighteenth and non penalty

481
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 3: expect goals seventeenth and shots per ninety and twelfth in

482
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 3: box century, so I don't really know how they're going

483
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 3: to break down the Manchester City back line. That's only

484
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,719
Speaker 3: about I think five expect goals total in nine matches,

485
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,199
Speaker 3: but projection wise, I only have two point eight goals

486
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 3: for this match, So I agree with you, Michael, under

487
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 3: three goals of plus twenty twenty five has some value,

488
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:45,119
Speaker 3: but it's not.

489
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 2: Going to be a fun bet.

490
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,440
Speaker 1: Anthony, can we convince you to to join this ice

491
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 1: cold pain jacuzzie over here? It's gonna be terrible.

492
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 2: It's a hard pass.

493
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,920
Speaker 4: Then the market is I'm starting to show value on

494
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 4: City unders almost every week two, and I'm thinking that,

495
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,200
Speaker 4: you know, some of our twenty two one data is

496
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 4: baked into our numbers obviously as we project these, and

497
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 4: I'm starting to think that City's playing a little differently

498
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 4: this year. They look like they're more willing to play.

499
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 4: In transition, the addition of Jack Realis, who might be

500
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 4: the best open field player in the Premier League in

501
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 4: terms of his ability to carry the ball up the

502
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 4: field to create for others to run into space. He

503
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 4: was so good at that with Villa last year. He's

504
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:20,880
Speaker 4: almost better at that than he is at breaking down

505
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 4: low blocks because he wasn't asked to do that quite

506
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,119
Speaker 4: as much at Villa, whereas that was more of a

507
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 4: debrauna thing. You know, with playing that perfect pass, and

508
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 4: so they've looked way more dangerous Foden as well. In transition.

509
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 4: They've also looked a little more open at the back,

510
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 4: and I know it hasn't quite come off into chances

511
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 4: all the time, but you know, you go back and

512
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:39,640
Speaker 4: you watch like the Club Bruges game. You know, when

513
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 4: City went to the Champions League last year, it was

514
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,360
Speaker 4: nothing like no teams could get any shots off at all,

515
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 4: and you had Club Bruges create over one expected goal

516
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 4: Brighton for all of that game. That was a blowout,

517
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 4: and of course a lot of it came at the

518
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 4: very end of the game, but Brighton creating ultimately getting

519
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,640
Speaker 4: the penalty, but creating a decent amount of chances as well.

520
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 4: I just don't trust, you know, I don't want to

521
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 4: bet against the City attack right now because of how

522
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 4: dangerous they looked in transition, and I think they're a

523
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 4: little more vulnerable this year defensively. I think it's probably

524
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,639
Speaker 4: a good trade off for Pat Cordiola in terms of

525
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,760
Speaker 4: trying to win a Champions League and trying to repeat

526
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,479
Speaker 4: his Premier League champions But it's gonna keep me off

527
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,959
Speaker 4: this under, so I'm gonna wait, and I think we're

528
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 4: gonna stop seeing two and a halfs because if we

529
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 4: start seeing two and a halves again on City, we

530
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,160
Speaker 4: may need to, you know, start playing some overs.

531
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,479
Speaker 1: Lovely lovely, lovely, lovely stuff. One of the great things

532
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 1: about our podcast compared to other soccer podcasts is that

533
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:31,119
Speaker 1: a game like Burnley versus Brentford or Watford versus Southampton,

534
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 1: they might gloss over those, while we won't be diving

535
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 1: deep into those if we don't see value on them,

536
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,360
Speaker 1: we still want to at least give you some information

537
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,640
Speaker 1: in case you are out there trying to get action

538
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,719
Speaker 1: down on them. Burnley. There's a ten am kickoff on Saturday,

539
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 1: Burnley plus one seventy five at home against Brentford plus

540
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: one seventy the draw plus two twenty five. In a

541
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 1: funny kind of twist of the narrative here, the Burnley

542
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 1: games have been all action. You know, we're seeing two

543
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 1: two's last like last weekend. There's goals at both ends

544
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 1: of the pitch. We're seeing Burnley score goals, get ruled

545
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: out at the last minute to win and then they

546
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 1: still have it won a game. This team is actually

547
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: kind of pure chaos, which is not what you think

548
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 1: of when you think of Sean Diitsch's Burnley. I've got

549
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 1: nothing on this game, but I do think it's actually

550
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: more interesting then people will realize, and if you know,

551
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 1: all things being equal, I wish where people would tune

552
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 1: into it, but I think a lot more people will

553
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 1: probably turn to Liverpool or Man City. Anthony how A

554
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 1: you seeing this one shakeout? Yeah?

555
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 4: You know, two big injuries for Brentford that make this

556
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 4: stay away from me or else like probably beyond the Bees.

557
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 4: Their goalkeeper Rayah picked up a significant knee injury. It

558
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:34,880
Speaker 4: looks like he's going to be out probably a couple

559
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 4: of months, not really clear, but either way he's not

560
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 4: playing on Saturday, which is all that matters here. And

561
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 4: so you know, that's a big loss for you know,

562
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,119
Speaker 4: somebody who started every match this year and who's been

563
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 4: very good in goal and is a major reason that

564
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 4: their their defense has been so good. He's actually been

565
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 4: pretty good at claiming crosses and what not to David Rya.

566
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 4: So that's one loss, and the second one is Brian

567
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 4: and Blaymu who picked up a knock and maybe out

568
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 4: as well. And so Blaymu and Tony are so important

569
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 4: in terms of their ability to connect and to interplay

570
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:05,719
Speaker 4: and to produce high quality chances, which has really been

571
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 4: what Brentford's calling card has been. And so I don't

572
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 4: really trust them here and I think this is pretty

573
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 4: much going to be the first match where they're going

574
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 4: to be asked to be the aggressors. They've they've kind

575
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 4: of been able to be a low block team and

576
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 4: kind of a very effective counter attacking team. They did

577
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 4: that really well against Woolves and Liverpool and west Ham

578
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 4: and evin Chelsea though they didn't win, and Leicster sort of.

579
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 4: But they're going to really be asked to take it

580
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 4: to Burnley here away from home.

581
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 1: That's very tough to do.

582
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 4: Set piece edge kind of nullified given how good Burnley

583
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 4: is and Brentford, so may come down to who executes

584
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 4: their set pieces. But I'm staying away from this one.

585
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually think I lean towards Burnley here. Like

586
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 1: you said, it's just it's not a great spot for

587
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 1: Brentford either. The let down kind of angle is definitely

588
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 1: hanging over their head there. We'll see. You can follow

589
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: us all of us in the action app obviously to

590
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 1: see if a play comes through, but if It's either

591
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 1: Burnley or pass for me. Let's move on. Like I said,

592
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 1: Watford and Southamp dinner playing. This is another ten am kickoff.

593
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 1: Watford at home plus two twenty Southampton plus one thirty

594
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 1: that draw plus two fifty. If you turned off the

595
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: Everton Watford game at the seventy eighth minute last weekend,

596
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: it was two one Everton. I thought I made a

597
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 1: savvy betting move. I watched that line Crash got him

598
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: at minus one thirty after his hang in a like

599
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 1: minus one sixty five for most of the week. That

600
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 1: game ended up five to two, three goals from Josh King,

601
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: who had a three month spell at Everton where he

602
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: scored zero goals for them, So that was obviously coming

603
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: for If you're an Everdon fan like I am, you

604
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: saw that one coming from a mile away. One of

605
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 1: the weirdest, kind of most dreadful losses. I've ever seen

606
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 1: that team lose, and I've seen them do a lot

607
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: of things. Has caused has caused me a lot of

608
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: pain over the years. Watford's defense is still too poorus

609
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: to like get behind, like, even with Claudia Ranieri coming

610
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 1: in maybe solidifying it. I think the number is a

611
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,920
Speaker 1: little bit tempting with them at home coming off a

612
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 1: big win, maybe he can get something. I don't really

613
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 1: like the Southampton team that much, but for me, I'm

614
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: staying away, Anthony. What about you?

615
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 4: I have a lean to the over two and a

616
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 4: half goals here. It really is all about Southampton here,

617
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 4: and they're playing much better than their position in the

618
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 4: table indicates. They're pretty even unexpected goals difference, they're actually

619
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 4: ahead of Manchester United, Tottenham and Arsenal in the XG table.

620
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 4: Now you know some of that is scheduled. They have

621
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 4: not played a couple of teams that I think could

622
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 4: give them some trouble. But Southampton has underperformed their expected

623
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 4: goals going forward quite a bit. And I also think

624
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 4: Watford is the kind of team with their ability on

625
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,159
Speaker 4: the counter attack to get through this press that can

626
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 4: give the Southampton defense, which has conceded a lot of

627
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 4: high quality chances and have been their downfall, could create

628
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 4: some chance at the other end. So I'm gonna be

629
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 4: looking to play in over here. I may get in live,

630
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 4: I may not even play it. Like Michael mentioned, following

631
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 4: the Action Network AAP, because that's where I'm going to

632
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 4: make that decision and post it before the game on Saturday,

633
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 4: so we'll see, but I lean towards the.

634
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: Open and with that we'll flip the page to Sunday.

635
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: Norch City at the foot of the table. There plus

636
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:54,159
Speaker 1: two forty at home against Leeds, who are surprisingly in

637
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 1: a relegation battle and a real one. This is a

638
00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 1: legitimate relegation scrap for Marcello Bielsa's Peacocks. They're plus one

639
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,719
Speaker 1: ten on the road to draw plus two sixty ten

640
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 1: am kickoff. I like the matchup for Leeds. I'm gonna

641
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,719
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take it. Feels kind of trappy plus one

642
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: ten right now, but when you're backing leads, you want

643
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:13,239
Speaker 1: to do it against a team that maybe can't hit

644
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 1: them back on the counter. And this is Norwich City's

645
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,439
Speaker 1: terrible offense versus Leeds is terrible defense. But the difference

646
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: is Leeds has the terrible offense to go against another

647
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,360
Speaker 1: terrible defense. So I actually think leads on the money line.

648
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 1: I also wouldn't be opposed to people who are chasing

649
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 1: big prices on the alt lines minus one and a half,

650
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: minus two and a half if you want to get crazy.

651
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm going with the Peacocks here, BJ, what

652
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: about you?

653
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, I mean, listen, Norwich didn't deserve to

654
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 3: have seven goals put a pass them against Chelsea. But

655
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 3: this defense is still just so bad right now. They're

656
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 3: along one point eight seven non penalty expected goals for match,

657
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 3: that's dead last in the Premier League. Were allowing sixteen

658
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 3: point one shots for ninety sixteen big scoring chances, seventeen

659
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 3: point eight nine box entries per match. It's it's just

660
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 3: really bad news for Norwich right now. And I know

661
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 3: Leeds is currently without Patrick Bamford, but they have plenty

662
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 3: of other acting players that can get for an easily

663
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 3: breakdown Northch's back line, I mean, leads ninth and non

664
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 3: penalty expected goals, sixth in shots per ninety and seventh

665
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 3: in box sentries. They just haven't been able to create

666
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 3: many big scoring chances. But what better time to do

667
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 3: it than against the worst defense in the Premier League.

668
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 3: And what's really troubling though about Norwich is that, like

669
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 3: you mentioned that their offense is just as bad as

670
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 3: their defenses. They're only creating point six to nine non

671
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,159
Speaker 3: penalty expected goals per match. They're dead last in shots

672
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 3: for ninety in box entries. I mean, Leads obviously hasn't

673
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 3: been great based on expected goals defensively, but they are

674
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 3: allowing the sixth fewest box entries and the fifth fuest

675
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 3: crosses completed to their onwly teen yard box and Leads

676
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 3: is also the number one team in the Premier League

677
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 3: and passes per defensive actions and fifth and pressure success right,

678
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 3: So I do think they'll be able to dominate this

679
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 3: game and basically pin Norwich in kind of like what

680
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 3: Leads did to Wolves in the second half last week.

681
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 2: So I agree with you.

682
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 3: I have Leads projected at minus one oh nine, so

683
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 3: I do think there's some value on them right now

684
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 3: at plus one ten.

685
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Leads I think are a team to keep

686
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: in your pocket. Maybe is they could be undervalued just

687
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 1: because of how terrible they've been to start the season.

688
00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: When when players do get back and this team starts

689
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: firing a little bit playing bielsa ball. We noted a

690
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago about the bilsa burnout effect. That

691
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 1: could be true, but these prices, and it's not god

692
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: happening at North City obviously, but against other teams, could

693
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 1: really really start to overcorrect, Anthony, what do you have

694
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: on this game?

695
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 4: Leads is bad, Like, we have to stop sugarcoating it.

696
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 4: They're really bad. They had a good performance against Wolves,

697
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 4: but they went down in the eighth minute. Wolves kind

698
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 4: of bunkered in a little bit protected the lead. Leads

699
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 4: led for eight or Wolves led for eight eighty minutes

700
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:28,959
Speaker 4: of that game, which is stop time penalty. That kind

701
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 4: of inflates leads numbers.

702
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, can we just not let's not talk about that game.

703
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was all that was awful. I had always

704
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 2: Wolves doing.

705
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, they weren't even trying to score. Which far are

706
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 4: they trying to go forward? It made no sense whatever. Yeah,

707
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 4: they had eighty minutes to find another goal to get

708
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 4: that team total for me too, and they didn't. So

709
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 4: they're dead to me. Mand up backing them on Monday.

710
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 2: We'll see.

711
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 4: But as far as this leads team goes, I mean

712
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 4: they have performed very mediocre every match pretty much. I mean,

713
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 4: they lost to Everton unexpected goals. They got thumped by

714
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 4: man United, played pretty with Burnley, played relatively even with Newcastle,

715
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 4: got thumped by Liverpool, thumped by west Ham, had one

716
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 4: great performance against Watford at home thumped at Southampton, beaten

717
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 4: pretty handily by Arsenal in the League Cup with a

718
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 4: pretty solid team out there, and they still have to

719
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 4: play Lester Tottenham, Chelsea City Arsenal in the first round

720
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 4: of matches here, so the schedule is not easy either.

721
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 4: So I think leads are firmly in the relegation battle.

722
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 4: But anytime I look at my little XG difference chart

723
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 4: to goal difference chart and I see two teams at

724
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 4: the bottom of it. When you have Leeds and Norwich

725
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 4: and attack automatic look to the over just at a principle,

726
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 4: and so I lean that way. But like Michael mentioned,

727
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 4: this Norwich offense, this attack is so bad that I mean,

728
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 4: if they can't score at home against Leeds, I mean

729
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 4: they're gonna get relegated away. But if they can't score

730
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 4: home against Leeds, we're in like historically bad territory in

731
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 4: terms of attacks. So you're playing one of the worst

732
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 4: attacks in the league, who are shorthanded in some spots,

733
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 4: worst defense in the league. We're shorthanded in some spots

734
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 4: and you're in them at home. You know, if you

735
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 4: can't score there, like I mentioned, historically bad, So I

736
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 4: lean towards the over two and a half. I think

737
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 4: this game is going to be pretty open. I think

738
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 4: that's the only way leads knows how to play. And

739
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 4: so Norwich need the win like blood. So they have

740
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 4: to get three points. They can't settle for one here

741
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 4: and so I will look.

742
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: Towards the over.

743
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're dangerously approaching Derby County territory.

744
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, Norwich right.

745
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 4: Now eleven eleven point Derby County eleven points.

746
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, that'll be a fun race to watch Norwich versus

747
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 1: Derby County.

748
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 4: They're at what two right now? Yeah, and they were

749
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 4: two goalless draws, right, I think, yeah, yeah.

750
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, we'll move out of East Anglia and

751
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 1: into the Midlands. Aston Villa plus one seventy five home

752
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: favorites against the best team in the world west Ham.

753
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: They're plus one fifty five on the road. The draw

754
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 1: is plus two forty beach A, you have a fun

755
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: little angle for this one. Yeah.

756
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 3: I don't really have a play on the match, but

757
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 3: I do think from before we want to talk about

758
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 3: futures really quick. West Ham is hanging out there at

759
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 3: six to one finish inside the top four, and I

760
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 3: absolutely think that is crazy because right now Tottenham and

761
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 3: Arsenal are ahead of them, and this West Ham team

762
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 3: is clearing away a top five team in the Premier

763
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 3: League with Manchester United regressing the way they are. I mean,

764
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 3: west Ham is top five and non penalty expectacles both

765
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 3: offensively and defensively in top five and pretty much every

766
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 3: single offensive metric and listen, David Moyes has done a

767
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 3: fantastic job at West Ham. I know he's been made

768
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 3: fun of and everything in the past, but he has

769
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 3: done a fantastic job with the four two three one

770
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 3: with the Hammers. They have a complete defense, a really

771
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 3: good offense with the call Antonio up top, and hey,

772
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 3: you know what, they might be players in the January

773
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 3: transfer market because they do have some capital to play with.

774
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 3: Maybe Jesse Linduard comes back and revitalizes the offense even

775
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 3: more so at a price of six to one. Right

776
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 3: now for a team that's currently in fourth place.

777
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 2: With Manchester United.

778
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 3: Regressing the way it is, listen, there's no way Tottenham

779
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 3: is going to get up in the top four.

780
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 2: And I'll just say it. Arsenal's not finishing in the

781
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 2: top four either, So I think west Ham might make

782
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 2: the Champions.

783
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 3: League next year and we might be seeing David Moyes

784
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 3: maybe on our Rainy Dane Kiev or or something. But

785
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 3: for this match specifically, I mean aston Ville's offense isn't

786
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 3: really that great since Jack Realish has left their sixteenth

787
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: and non penaltgue expected goals per match. Defensively, they're not

788
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 3: that great either. But from a projection standpoint, I have

789
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 3: west Ham ut plus one forty five, so it's a

790
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 3: pass for me. But I do think that price in

791
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:17,960
Speaker 3: west Ham at sixty to one to finish top four

792
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 3: is only going a shrink as the days go along.

793
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that.

794
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 1: I like that a lot. I like west Ham plus

795
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: one fifty five. I was very wrong about aston Villa

796
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 1: going into season. I thought they would be able to

797
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 1: kind of handle the Rerealish blow a little bit better

798
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: than they have, especially going forward. Kind of a create

799
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 1: chance by committee did not work out this team as

800
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: a in the red and expected goal difference for ninety

801
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 1: we can say all we want, all the accolades we

802
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: want for David Moys, who actually met once in Philadelphia

803
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 1: when Everden were doing a tour. Really nice guy and

804
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 1: so I'm you know, I'm happy for David Moys and

805
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: west Ham. I'm going to back the Hammers plus one

806
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 1: fifty five. I just think this this team's like BJ said,

807
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: I if Manchester United was in this spot, or if

808
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: who and they just were they were home against But

809
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: like I view this team on par with United basically

810
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit better. I don't think plus one

811
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: fifty five would be next to Manchester United if they

812
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: were playing Bill on the road in this one. So

813
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 1: I like the Hammers. Anthony, do you have anything for

814
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 1: this one?

815
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 4: I also like the Hammers. I wrote about this in

816
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 4: my weekly weekend recap that I do that you can

817
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 4: find on the Action Network. I typically take three or

818
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 4: four takeaways of things that I find interesting that are

819
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 4: digging into the numbers. Last weekend I wrote about man

820
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,279
Speaker 4: United and their failures. I wrote about Syria, which we'll

821
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 4: get to, and I wrote about west Ham, who has

822
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 4: played a lot differently this year. They're playing a lot

823
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 4: more like a top four team. Last year they were

824
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 4: pretty near the bottom in possession. They were sixteenth in possession,

825
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 4: sixteenth to progressive passes. This year they're up to tenth

826
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 4: in possession, they're fifth in progressive passes. They're up from

827
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 4: fourteenth to fourth in passing into the penaltyia. They're playing

828
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 4: like a team who's getting more respect from their opponents.

829
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 4: They're playing like a team who's able to boss matches

830
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 4: more and create chances that way, instead of relying on

831
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 4: set pieces encounters. They're pressing more. They're winning the ball

832
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 4: more in terms of ball recoveries and passing and progressing,

833
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 4: and the addition of Kurt Zuma has really made this

834
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 4: defense a lot better. They're up from ninth and expected

835
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 4: goals allowed to fifth. The only reason they really got

836
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 4: into the top six last year was the red hot

837
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 4: finishing run that Jesse Linguard went on the second half

838
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,720
Speaker 4: of the season kind of bolstered them. The only concern,

839
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 4: and I see BJ's point on the value is it

840
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,240
Speaker 4: really comes down to whether not McKell antonio can stay healthy,

841
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 4: and he has not proven that over the course of

842
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 4: his career, so that's the major risk here. I'm hoping

843
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 4: United loses a couple more matches and we can get

844
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 4: some new manager in here, because if we do, I'll

845
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 4: be looking to buy United top four similar to last

846
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 4: year with Chelsea and Thomas Toukle coming in for Frank Lampard.

847
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: But right now in this match.

848
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:39,919
Speaker 4: Specifically, I like west Ham on the John O Bett

849
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 4: line and minus one twenty. Not like Michael mentioned, Billo

850
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 4: was my favorite team to back last year. They've really

851
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 4: fallen off the midfields, agressed hard. Their numbers are just

852
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 4: not impressive. They don't progress the ball, they don't win

853
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 4: the ball as much, and so those issues in personnel

854
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 4: department are glaring. West Ham should be able to dominate

855
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 4: this game and win it, and so John O Bett

856
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 4: minus one twenty and let's.

857
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 1: Wrap up the Premier League portion of the show Monday

858
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: Night Football. Don't want to talk about this game because

859
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 1: I'm still mad at Everton. Wolves are plus one twenty

860
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: five at home Everton plus two thirty five to draw

861
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 1: plus two twenty five. I was really excited about the

862
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 1: way Everton started the season. Their underlying numbers were good.

863
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 1: I kind of got caught up maybe in the hubbub

864
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 1: a little bit because you look at the team sheet

865
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: with Calvert lewin and then were Charlison hurt and now

866
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,479
Speaker 1: Erry Mina hurt and Seamus Kolmo was out, ab Delight

867
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 1: Decore is out. Like it's just this team is too

868
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 1: thin to keep getting results that showed against Watford. Of

869
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 1: all teams, I think Wolves could be worth a bet

870
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: if yery Mina is out again on Monday because Ben

871
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 1: Godfreek just has not recovered from COVID. Well without Michael

872
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,760
Speaker 1: Keene having like a solid center back partner, the defense

873
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: has been a shambles. They just allowed five goals to

874
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 1: watch for four in the second half, so I'm really

875
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 1: afraid to back Everton even at that number. And Wolves

876
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 1: I still like them. I like Bruno Ladje even though

877
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 1: they kind of am Chateau de Booo with me right

878
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:00,759
Speaker 1: now because of the way they finished the match with Leeds.

879
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,919
Speaker 1: But if you're Imina is out Wolves anything even money

880
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 1: or better for me? BJ what about you?

881
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 2: Yeah?

882
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 3: I mean I kind of like the over two and

883
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:11,399
Speaker 3: a half goals at plus one twenty in this match.

884
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,879
Speaker 3: Like I already mentioned, a very weird second half from

885
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 3: Wolves on Saturday against Leeds. It's almost like they were

886
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 3: just happy to play, try to see the game out.

887
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 3: Defensive which is not the Wolves that we've come to

888
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 3: know and come to see this season. But defensively this

889
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 3: season they have been really good. You know, their top

890
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 3: five and non penally expect goals shots per ninety and

891
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 3: big score and chants allowed, but they haven't actually faced

892
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 3: a murderers row in terms of offenses. You know, they've

893
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 3: only faced one offense ahead of Everton based on expected

894
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 3: goals this season, and seven of their nine opponents are

895
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 3: in the bottom half of the table and expected goals four.

896
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 3: And I know Everton's going to be without Dominique Calvert

897
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 3: Lewin for this match, so we can all just rip

898
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 3: up our golden boot futures right now because it looks

899
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 3: like he's going to be out for four to five weeks.

900
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 3: But the return for Charleston was huge and you saw

901
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 3: he was absolute instant offense once he got on the

902
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 3: pitch against Watford last Saturday. But at the same time,

903
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 3: for Everton defensively, I don't really know what happened. I'm

904
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 3: still in shock, Michael, like you, I just I don't

905
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 3: know why Everton's defense just looked like Swiss cheese and

906
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 3: allowed Watford to just make one pass and score every

907
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 3: single time.

908
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 2: And you know, Wolves is a much.

909
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 3: Better offense to break down Everton's defense, and without your amina,

910
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 3: like you mentioned it, it's gonna make things a lot

911
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 3: more difficult. So I have two point four goals projected

912
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 3: for this match, So I'm gonna go over two and

913
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 3: a half goals at plus one twenty or better.

914
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 1: All right with that, let's move on to Germany. The Bundesliga,

915
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,359
Speaker 1: as always, is just off the charts. My favorite bet

916
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,879
Speaker 1: this week is I mean, I kind of goo. I've

917
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,440
Speaker 1: been zeroing in on these Dortmund matches because I think

918
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 1: they're a pretty easy team to read. When they play

919
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,359
Speaker 1: a team that doesn't produce a lot offensively and maybe

920
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 1: it's a little leaky defensively. I like to back Dortmund

921
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 1: on like maybe minus one and a half this week.

922
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: They're going against Clone, who you guys both were saying

923
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 1: over the mid week that this is a good team.

924
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 1: They're decent offensive team. So I like to over three

925
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 1: and a.

926
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 2: Half goals right now.

927
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 1: It's attempting bat it's a good number. Like I said,

928
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: the Colon defense is not good their sixteenth and non

929
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:01,280
Speaker 1: penalty expected goals against the seven teams and big chances allowed,

930
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 1: but their offense is good. They're fourth in creating big

931
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 1: scoring chances. This thing should be wide open. So I

932
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,399
Speaker 1: like over three and a half in this one. BJ.

933
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 3: What about you, Yeah, let's go mines plus one fifteen

934
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 3: ag'inst Armenia ba Field, I mean, beer Field's terrible at both.

935
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 2: Ends of the pitch.

936
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 3: They're bottom four in shots per ninety, passes per defensive actions,

937
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 3: box centuries and crosses completed in their on eighteen yard bocks. Also,

938
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 3: they're the number one team in the Bundesliga and total pressures,

939
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 3: but they have the worst pressure success rate and that's

940
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 3: exactly how you have to beat this Mins team because

941
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,240
Speaker 3: they're the worst team in the Bundesliga against pressure. However,

942
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 3: Mines offensively has been pretty good, you know, ninth and

943
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals sixth and big scoring chances. Then

944
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 3: they just put it on Augsburg last Friday and the

945
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 3: ogsbur is a very team, similar team stylistically to what

946
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 3: bia Field does. So with Mines creating three point five

947
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 3: three expected goals, they should be able to just thrash

948
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 3: be a Field's defense. But what I love about this

949
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:56,320
Speaker 3: matchup is I don't really know how Armenia Berfield is

950
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 3: going to be able to create anything against Mines because

951
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 3: Mine's defense is really good. They're allowing only one non

952
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 3: penalty expectacle per match, which is second in the Bundesliga,

953
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 3: and They've also allowed only five big scoring chances in

954
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,800
Speaker 3: a league where it seems like there are hundreds of

955
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 3: big scoring chances every single weekend. So I really think

956
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:15,800
Speaker 3: that this Mine team is just gonna be able to

957
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 3: thrash be a field like they did Augsburg last Friday.

958
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 3: I have them projected at minus one oh four, so

959
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 3: I do like Mines at plus one fifteen on the road.

960
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 1: And Anthony, where are you going for your favorite bet

961
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:27,240
Speaker 1: in Germany this weekend?

962
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've been fading them for most of the last

963
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 4: month or two. Wolfsburg plus a half at minus one

964
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 4: ten right now. Believe you can find some minus one

965
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 4: oh five's, have multiple outs, check for different numbers. But

966
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 4: Wolfsburg here just undervalued after a really, really, really bad

967
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 4: run of performances. I mean they have really struggled in

968
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 4: the Champions League. They haven't gotten any wins there. They've

969
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 4: struggled even more in the Bundesliga, where they've lost four

970
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 4: in a row. Now, so Hoffenheim, Mcgodbach, Union, Berlin and

971
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 4: Freiberg all beat them in consecutive matches, but they're starting

972
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,319
Speaker 4: to get to the point now where they're undervalued. They've

973
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 4: only scored nine goals from fourteen expected, so expecting some

974
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 4: positive regression there. And you know, I don't want to

975
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 4: sound like a broken record because I could do this

976
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,879
Speaker 4: every week. But Leverkusen, when they've played in even game

977
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:15,800
Speaker 4: states this year, has a plus point one four expect

978
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 4: the goal difference per ninety. Their actual goal difference in

979
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 4: tide games is plus one point twenty seven. Everybody's finishing

980
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 4: at a crazy rate. They actually blew a lead against Cone,

981
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 4: almost got my money line in there on con late.

982
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 4: But is Leverkusen team not built to play with the lead.

983
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 4: Not nearly as good defensively as their defensive record shows,

984
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:36,240
Speaker 4: and nowhere near as good offensively as their attacking record shows.

985
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 4: So I'm going to keep fading them until we continue

986
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 4: to cash tickets. Because it's coming. So I like Wolfsburg

987
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:42,240
Speaker 4: plus a half.

988
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 1: From Germany, let's head south to Italy Syria. My favorite

989
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:50,720
Speaker 1: bet this weekend is Napoli League leaders. They just dropped

990
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 1: their first two points in a drug against Roma last weekend.

991
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 1: I like them to hold Salar Natana and win to nail. Look,

992
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,479
Speaker 1: this is a really, really good Napoli team. Talked about

993
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: him last on Monday in the midweek show. This is

994
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 1: they're built on a great defense with their offense is

995
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 1: pretty good to their top five in non penalty expected

996
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,879
Speaker 1: goals shots for ninety big chances. So I don't see

997
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,800
Speaker 1: so learn a ton of being able to absorb this offense,

998
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 1: and I definitely don't see them scoring against the best

999
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 1: defense in Syria as so I'll take the win to

1000
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: nil at plus one twenty five Sunday one pm kickoff.

1001
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 1: If you're trying to get on that one BJ, what's

1002
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 1: your favorite ben in Italy this weekend?

1003
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, the Salary Town of Venetia match, the red

1004
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 3: card that was given them, that was another absolute that

1005
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 3: Again I don't we'll never talk about those two teams again,

1006
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 3: but that.

1007
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 2: Was a travesy.

1008
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 3: I just want to put that out there. I like

1009
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 3: Torino plus one ten against Sampdori at home. I mean,

1010
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 3: you guys meant we're on it this week in our

1011
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 3: last podcast to Reno against Acey Milan finished with the

1012
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 3: one zero results, so everybody pushed their their plus ones.

1013
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 3: But this Torino team, like you guys mentioned, is really good,

1014
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 3: especially defensively the third and non penalty expected goals allowed

1015
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,239
Speaker 3: first and shots per ninety allowed and third box entries

1016
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 3: allowed first in ball recoveries. So this is a really

1017
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 3: good defense that I know we just mentioned lost one

1018
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 3: zero to AC Milan on Tuesday, but they only allowed

1019
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 3: Milan to create one point zero one total expected goals.

1020
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 3: And the Torino offense actually has been pretty good as well,

1021
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 3: averaging one point three to five expected goals for match

1022
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 3: their fifth and big scoring chances sixth and crosses completed

1023
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:16,839
Speaker 3: into the box. And they're also the fourth best team

1024
00:43:16,840 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 3: against pressure. And you know, Terno lost three of the

1025
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 3: last four matches, but three of those losses were to

1026
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 3: Acey Milan, Napoli and Uventus. Small matches they lost ended

1027
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,320
Speaker 3: in a one zero result in sam Doria, who just

1028
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,719
Speaker 3: lost to Adelanta today three to one. They're really bad

1029
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:32,439
Speaker 3: defensively seventeenth to non penalty expected goals shots per ninety

1030
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 3: allowed and big scoring chances allowed, and offensively things aren't

1031
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 3: much better considering the really creating one point zero three

1032
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,799
Speaker 3: expected goals per match and the second worst team against

1033
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 3: pressure in Syria A. So I have Terino projected at

1034
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 3: minus one eighteen. I think I'm gonna keep riding this

1035
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:48,759
Speaker 3: team because they're coming through, especially against lesser opponents, So

1036
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 3: I think there's some value with on them right now

1037
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 3: at plus one ten.

1038
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:55,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, Torino, good team, good, good team, Anthony. What is

1039
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 1: your favorite bet in your homeland, your motherland, Italy?

1040
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:02,240
Speaker 4: Italy is indeed my homeland. I guess I am very Italian,

1041
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 4: but I've never been to Italy. Hopefully to get there

1042
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 4: one day, but I will be taking a trip to

1043
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 4: the capital of Italy for my pick of the weekend

1044
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 4: in Syria. I have the preview for this match, so

1045
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 4: you can read that on the Action Network app. Should

1046
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:19,240
Speaker 4: be up on Saturday. Roma and Milan under three goals

1047
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 4: it minus one thirty. It's a little bit juicy, but

1048
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 4: I'm willing to pay it for the three goal protection

1049
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 4: here because I've the Siria goal run has just been absurd.

1050
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 4: There's going to be regression in this league. Eventually, We're

1051
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 4: going to get there. BJ and I have talked about it.

1052
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 4: They're running about thirty goals over their numbers, so it's

1053
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 4: about twelve percent of the league. So the league's running

1054
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 4: about twelve percent over their expected numbers. And a team

1055
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 4: can do that in the short term, a player can

1056
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 4: do that in the short term, even a league can

1057
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 4: do that in the short term, but especially you know,

1058
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 4: as the numbers get bigger, you tend to see some

1059
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 4: serious regression. So we're gonna get regression here. Hopefully it comes.

1060
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 4: I really like the way this game matches up though

1061
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:52,359
Speaker 4: as well.

1062
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 1: Roma.

1063
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:55,359
Speaker 4: It's fun to see how a manager can have an

1064
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 4: impact on a team's stats in just a short amount

1065
00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,760
Speaker 4: of time, because when you look at the Romo Statistical

1066
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 4: pro file, they are fourteenth in passes per defensive action.

1067
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 4: That is a Jose staple. They are going to allow

1068
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 4: teams to have the ball. They're going to allow teams

1069
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,400
Speaker 4: to pass in harmless areas, and then they're going to

1070
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 4: press when needed. Their eighth and pressure success rate. They're

1071
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:15,759
Speaker 4: gonna be nineteenth in ball recoveries, which is the second

1072
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 4: worst in the league. They don't win the ball back

1073
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 4: a ton, but they're dangerous on the counter. Their top

1074
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 4: five and big scoring chances created. They're actually number one

1075
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 4: in shots, which is not necessarily a Reno esque but

1076
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 4: they're also only eighth in possession percentage. So they're gonna

1077
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 4: ask Milan. They're gonna give the ball to Milan. They're

1078
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 4: gonna say, have the ball, and then they're gonna dare

1079
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 4: Milan to try to beat them, and Roma's gonna try

1080
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 4: to hit them on the counter. What we've seen with

1081
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 4: Milan as they're much better in transition, they're much better

1082
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,320
Speaker 4: in space. They have not been great in terms of

1083
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 4: trying to break down defenses. They're starting to scuffle a

1084
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 4: little bit. We're seeing a significant downturn in their performances

1085
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 4: in the last few matches, I think four or five

1086
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 4: matches now you can say they've definitely not looked quite

1087
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:53,040
Speaker 4: as sharp. Set pieces are going to be a major concern.

1088
00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 4: Milan has seemingly scored all their goals off set pieces recently.

1089
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,319
Speaker 4: That's how they got the goal to beat Torino. That's

1090
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:00,320
Speaker 4: going to be a defensive issue for Roma here. But

1091
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 4: if Roma is solid defensively on set pieces, I think

1092
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 4: it's going to be a very low scoring game, kind

1093
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,239
Speaker 4: of a grind it out type game. And so under

1094
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 4: three goals at minus one thirty is where I'm going

1095
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 4: for that one. And like I mentioned, you can read

1096
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 4: my preview where I will dive more into the numbers

1097
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,360
Speaker 4: on the Action Network app and website.

1098
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Spain La Liga. My

1099
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,479
Speaker 1: favorite bet. I love both of these teams. David Moyes

1100
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: is former club. We also see Adad taking on Athletic

1101
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 1: Bill Boo. This is Sunday four pm kickoff. We catch

1102
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,439
Speaker 1: it on the Monday Show. I like to draw plus

1103
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 1: two thirty five. I'll keep banging this drum. Athletic bill

1104
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 1: Bau matches are hilariously low. Event right now, they're averaging

1105
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 1: one point five to six total goals per match. That

1106
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 1: is absurd that they've only allowed five goals and four

1107
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 1: from open play all season long. So this team is

1108
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:49,919
Speaker 1: a defensive power. They don't score much either, and Soocie

1109
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 1: Dad's really good. I think that this is a matcher.

1110
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 1: I can see both teams slugging it out and ending

1111
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 1: one to one nil nil, something like that.

1112
00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 4: As a sign of La Liga's downturn, bill Bao is

1113
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 4: now leading the XG table in XG difference per ninety

1114
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:06,359
Speaker 4: after this week's matches with Barcelona Real Madrid struggling there

1115
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 4: and dropping points.

1116
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 1: It's an absurd team, and it's an absurd team. It's

1117
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 1: a Samuel Beckett. I think the writer would really like

1118
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 1: La Liga. It's just absurd and nehilistic. Anthony. It's very

1119
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 1: bad right now in this very bad league. What is

1120
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:22,760
Speaker 1: your favorite bet? For the weekend.

1121
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:24,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I look at the board, I didn't love

1122
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 4: a ton I leaned towards Sociodd. I think they're you know,

1123
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 4: you mentioned Billbo's excellent defense. They are due for a

1124
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 4: little bit of defensive regression. I don't really buy them

1125
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 4: only allowing this few goals, and in terms of them

1126
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 4: being the best defense in the league, they're definitely one

1127
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 4: of the better ones, but underperforming their numbers. Definitely going

1128
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 4: to be conceding some goals in the future, and why

1129
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:45,400
Speaker 4: not Socio Dodd. Now Sociadad has not played as a

1130
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 4: recording in their Thursday match, so I'll be waiting to

1131
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 4: see the result of that and kind of how they

1132
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 4: look and play, and they get less rest than Bilbao,

1133
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:55,280
Speaker 4: so that definitely factors into this. So right now, nothing

1134
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 4: for me concrete, but we'll be looking to play some Sociododij.

1135
00:47:58,920 --> 00:47:59,400
Speaker 1: What about you.

1136
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:03,320
Speaker 3: Barcelona Alabas under three goals at plus one ten. I

1137
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 3: mean we talked about it last week. The Barcelona offensive

1138
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 3: aggression since lean al Messi left has been really significant.

1139
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 3: They're only averaging free point seven eight non penalty expected

1140
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:14,399
Speaker 3: goals per match, which is way down from last year

1141
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,239
Speaker 3: and They're going up against an Elevas team that's going

1142
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 3: to play very defensive, kind of like riv Alcano did

1143
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 3: after they went.

1144
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:20,400
Speaker 2: Up a goal on Wednesday.

1145
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 3: You know, Alabas is going to be fighting against relegation

1146
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 3: all season long. But they're tenth in you know, both

1147
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals allowed in tenth and big scoring

1148
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 3: chances allowed. They play out of usually out of a

1149
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 3: four to four to two and it usually leads to

1150
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 3: a lot of low scoring matches. Only one time in

1151
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 3: their ten matches this season have there been more than

1152
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 3: three goals scored, and that's mainly due the fact that

1153
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 3: their offense is also really bad. They're seventeenth in non

1154
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 3: penalty expected goals for match, fifteenth in box centuries, eighteenth

1155
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 3: in big scoring chances. While Barcelona has been really good defensively,

1156
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 3: only point nine to six non penalty expected goals allowed

1157
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 3: per match. They're the best pressing team in La Liga

1158
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 3: bypasses per defensive action in pressure success rate, while Allabas

1159
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:58,759
Speaker 3: is below average against pressure. Also, only two of Barcelona's

1160
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 3: first ten matches domestically have gone over three goals, so

1161
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 3: I only have two point eight two goals projected for

1162
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:05,879
Speaker 3: this match. So I think there's some value on under

1163
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 3: three goals, especially at plus one ten.

1164
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 1: And we'll wrap this section of the show up with

1165
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:13,839
Speaker 1: a portion of the show that I like to sit out.

1166
00:49:13,880 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: I like to let BJ kind of take the reins.

1167
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: He is league owns biggest fan in Iowa for sure.

1168
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 1: So what is your favorite bet in the French top

1169
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:23,720
Speaker 1: flight this weekend?

1170
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go to the premier match PSG versus LIL

1171
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 3: on Friday. I mean, look, PSG has been really good

1172
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,320
Speaker 3: in League Gun there, but they're going to be overvalued

1173
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 3: in this spot because LIL is somehow better in their

1174
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 3: metrics this season than they were in their title campaign

1175
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 3: last year. But they're in tenth place this year. On paper,

1176
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 3: you'll see they have allowed sixteen goals and only scored fourteen.

1177
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,239
Speaker 3: But actually they're number one in League Gun in non

1178
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 3: penalty expectacles allowed at eight point three eight, so they're

1179
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 3: due for some positive regression. Defensively, they're also the number

1180
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 3: one team in big scoring chances allowed, they've only allowed

1181
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,399
Speaker 3: seven in their eleven matches, and they're also the third

1182
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,240
Speaker 3: best team in box centuries allowed. Offense has really improved

1183
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:03,680
Speaker 3: from last season. They're averaging one point sixty six expected

1184
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 3: goals when I still can't believe it. They won the

1185
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:08,759
Speaker 3: title last year averaging one point twenty seven expected goals

1186
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 3: per match, and PSG's metrics have been really good. You know,

1187
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 3: they're allowing under one expected goal match and you know,

1188
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 3: averaging two point twenty four expected goals, So I mean

1189
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 3: it's the same really good PSG team that we're used to.

1190
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,319
Speaker 3: But they do have some players missing in this match.

1191
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,879
Speaker 3: You know, Hakimi got suspended because of the red card

1192
00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 3: against Marseille. Marco Varatti is going to miss this match,

1193
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 3: and that is really big because he is far and

1194
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 3: away their best midfielder.

1195
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:31,319
Speaker 2: And also Lil.

1196
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 3: They've beaten PSG their last two meetings, so I only

1197
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 3: have PSG projected at minus one seventy three, So I

1198
00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 3: love Lil plus one and a half at even money, Anthony,

1199
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:41,719
Speaker 3: are you joining him that one?

1200
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I am. I'm going to split a unit on

1201
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 4: plus one and a half and the under three point

1202
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:48,040
Speaker 4: twenty five, which is right around minus one fifteen right now.

1203
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:51,359
Speaker 4: I think, like BJ mentioned, this LEO team has shown

1204
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 4: the ability to defend PSG, and I know they've hadded

1205
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 4: Lionel Messi, but it doesn't really change the overall dynamic

1206
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 4: of the team all that much. They beat them one

1207
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 4: nil earlier in the Trophy de Champions in the early season,

1208
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:05,479
Speaker 4: which was the cup match winner versus the league winner,

1209
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 4: in which was a competitive match. It's not a league match,

1210
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 4: not quite to that level. It's still kind of sort

1211
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 4: of preseason y, but worth something. And then the two

1212
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 4: games they played last year were a one zero win

1213
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 4: for Lelan in which PSG created point nine to xt G,

1214
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 4: and then a goalless draw the two teams played earlier

1215
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 4: in the season. So this Leal defense is legitimate. Their

1216
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:26,439
Speaker 4: defensive numbers, as BJA mentioned, have you know, they were

1217
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 4: overdue for some defensive regression. It came, and you know,

1218
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:30,800
Speaker 4: we love regression to the opposite extreme. It's kind of

1219
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,879
Speaker 4: funny how that works. But the reality is the truth

1220
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 4: is in the middle, and this Leal defense has been

1221
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 4: one of the better ones in all of Europe. And

1222
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:41,160
Speaker 4: so I'm okay with backing them here on both lines.

1223
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:43,319
Speaker 4: I think it's a low scoring game. I don't trust

1224
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 4: this PSG offense. You could also take a PSG team

1225
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 4: total under if you don't want to do the splitting

1226
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 4: of the units basically the same bet. So yeah, that's

1227
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:54,400
Speaker 4: my look. Here the official determination of the Dubundo Cunningham

1228
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 4: League Darby, which happened on Wednesday. Marseille one nice won.

1229
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 1: We'll call it a watch.

1230
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:03,359
Speaker 4: Well, I'll see you in the spring when you get

1231
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 4: to do the reverse fixture of that one. It was

1232
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 4: a great day of soccer on Wednesday.

1233
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:07,879
Speaker 2: For sure.

1234
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's why you two are getting along so splendidly today.

1235
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 1: With that, let's move on to our favorite portion of

1236
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 1: the program. I always like to give a warning right

1237
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 1: before we dive in here. This part is not for

1238
00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:22,319
Speaker 1: the faint of heart. It's our underdog moneyline parlay this week.

1239
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 1: I like Wolfsburg and the Bundesliga against Leverkusen Saturday, nine thirty.

1240
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:31,400
Speaker 1: Wolfsburg defense. They're the fourth best team in Bundesliga in

1241
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals allowed, third best in shots for

1242
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:40,359
Speaker 1: ninety second in box entries, so it's really really solid defense. Meanwhile, Leverkusen,

1243
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:44,360
Speaker 1: as Anthony has talked about a nauseum, just overperforming wildly,

1244
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:47,720
Speaker 1: especially on offense, ten more goals than their expected goals,

1245
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 1: so plus two ninety five on Wolfsburg, who have lost

1246
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 1: about one hundred games in a row. I'm willing to

1247
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 1: buy low on them here and throw them into this

1248
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 1: parlay and BJ I'll let you take the second leg.

1249
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:00,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I've had a lot of six sess

1250
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 3: these underdogs by just going against teams that I have

1251
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:03,720
Speaker 3: vendettas against.

1252
00:53:03,840 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 2: So let's go back to it.

1253
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 3: Let's go Spetsi a plus five hundred against Fiorentina. Listen,

1254
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:10,759
Speaker 3: I mean this Fiorentina team. They might have looked good

1255
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 3: in their last two matches, but I mentioned it last week.

1256
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 3: They have a negative one point eight nine non penalty

1257
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 3: expected goal differential and they're somehow in eighth place in Syriaha,

1258
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:19,800
Speaker 3: and a lot of that is mainly due to the

1259
00:53:19,840 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 3: fact their offense has only created eight point sixty two

1260
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:27,440
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals total this season. That's nineteenth in Syria.

1261
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 3: They're also in sixteenth and shots per ninety and eighteenth

1262
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 3: in big scoring chances. They're also pretty bad against pressure,

1263
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,800
Speaker 3: and this Petsia defense they're number one and passes for

1264
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 3: defensive action. But you know, Spetsia, they're obviously, you know,

1265
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 3: battling against relegation right now, but they're.

1266
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 2: Due for some defensive regression.

1267
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 3: They've conceded twenty three goals off of only sixteen point

1268
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 3: two two to two expected goals. You know, overall for

1269
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 3: the season, their offense hasn't been great, only one point

1270
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:51,719
Speaker 3: one seven expected goals per match, but they've looked a

1271
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:53,799
Speaker 3: lot better as of late. The last four matches they've

1272
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 3: created six point seven three expected goals and they really

1273
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 3: should have beaten Genoa on Tuesday since they've created two

1274
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:01,760
Speaker 3: point four to seven expect the goals. So I honestly

1275
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:03,719
Speaker 3: think it's crazy, BETHI oran teens all the way up

1276
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:05,440
Speaker 3: at minus one to eighty five. I only have them

1277
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 3: projected at even money. So I love Spetsia at plus

1278
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 3: five hundred, and let's see if you can cash another

1279
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,319
Speaker 3: one against a team I haven't been atta against.

1280
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 4: Anthony bringing Home, I think we've had six so far,

1281
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 4: we've each given out two, and I think we had

1282
00:54:16,239 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 4: Ryo as a winner, and then last weekend we had

1283
00:54:19,160 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 4: another winner who I'm blanking on at the moment. We

1284
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:26,320
Speaker 4: had Troy Is against teams Yeah right, Bjay's teams, his

1285
00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 4: bogey teams regress mine never do. I'll also be on

1286
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:31,920
Speaker 4: Wilfsburg with bj I like eintrackt Frankfurt plus three hundred.

1287
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 4: I'm trying to fad a team I actually like this

1288
00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 4: week to see if it goes a little better. The

1289
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:38,600
Speaker 4: Leipzig defense, there's still like blaring red lights and flashing

1290
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:41,319
Speaker 4: regression indicators here. They've allowed at least one expected goal

1291
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:43,480
Speaker 4: in almost every match they played this year, and it's

1292
00:54:43,480 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 4: actually getting worse. It's not really getting better. Grouter firket

1293
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 4: Can scored a goal, granted was on a penalty, but

1294
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 4: there were numerous other chances that were created or almost

1295
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:56,319
Speaker 4: came off. There's serious issues defensively for this Leipzig team.

1296
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:58,759
Speaker 4: That's conceding a ton of big chances in transition, and

1297
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:01,200
Speaker 4: that is where Iron Track frank is very good. They've

1298
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 4: been excellent in transition. This attack has not really come

1299
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:06,800
Speaker 4: along since losing Andre Silva. They have a new manager.

1300
00:55:07,160 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 4: I mentioned them in our preseason podcast that I was

1301
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 4: looking to play against them while they're down in the bottom,

1302
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:14,759
Speaker 4: you know, five or six of the Bundesliga table. I

1303
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:16,680
Speaker 4: do not think they're that bad. I think they're going

1304
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 4: to eventually make their way back up the table. They

1305
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 4: have too much talent to do so, so why not

1306
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:24,920
Speaker 4: now at three to one I like Frankfurt here. My

1307
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 4: projections make them two eighty five, so not a ton

1308
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,480
Speaker 4: of value, but enough for me to get behind them

1309
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:32,920
Speaker 4: and fade this lever, this lipstick defense, which has some

1310
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:34,080
Speaker 4: serious concerns.

1311
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:38,359
Speaker 1: Wolfsburg, Spensia and Frankfurt on the money line. Ninety four

1312
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:40,440
Speaker 1: to one. Not the one hundred and fifty six to

1313
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 1: one bomb we gave out Monday, but still a nice

1314
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:47,400
Speaker 1: one if it comes through. Like I said, don't expect

1315
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:49,280
Speaker 1: it to. It's ninety four to one for a reason.

1316
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 1: All right, let's wrap this show up. We'll all talk

1317
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:55,279
Speaker 1: about briefly, talk about our favorite Premier League bet of

1318
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:58,439
Speaker 1: the weekend. I'll start west Ham plus one fifty five.

1319
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:01,799
Speaker 1: Let's keep it simple. Aston Villa. They're on the road.

1320
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 1: This is a Sunday twelve thirty kickoff. I just don't

1321
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 1: think people understand just how good this west Ham team is.

1322
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:10,839
Speaker 1: They're top five and basically every metric we look at.

1323
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 1: They are extremely talented in the midfield, they have a finisher.

1324
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:16,839
Speaker 1: Their defense is good too. If they are just as

1325
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 1: good as Manchester United, I think that if Manchester United

1326
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 1: was the one playing aston Ville on the road, I

1327
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 1: don't think it would be plus one fifty five. I

1328
00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:26,080
Speaker 1: like this number. I like this team. I'll keep going

1329
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 1: back to them. Give me the Hammers on the money line, Anthony,

1330
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:29,400
Speaker 1: what about you?

1331
00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:31,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go Liverpool Brighton. Both teams to score

1332
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 4: plus one zho five. Liverpool. As dominant as they looked

1333
00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:38,759
Speaker 4: on Sunday against Manchester United, there were some concerns. They

1334
00:56:38,760 --> 00:56:40,600
Speaker 4: a lot eleven shots in the first forty minutes of

1335
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 4: that game. They looked very open in the midfield. United

1336
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 4: were able to get through them and create a bunch

1337
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:47,120
Speaker 4: of pretty solid chances and probably should have gotten a

1338
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 4: goal in that match. I'm expecting Klop, given the injury

1339
00:56:50,200 --> 00:56:52,840
Speaker 4: situation in the midfield, to go again and look to

1340
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 4: outscore Brighton, which they absolutely can do at home. That

1341
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:57,440
Speaker 4: doesn't mean they won't be vulnerable, and it doesn't mean

1342
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,320
Speaker 4: they won't concede. Brighton will be better at me managing

1343
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:02,320
Speaker 4: that ball pressure, They'll be better at passing through it.

1344
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:04,880
Speaker 4: They'll be able to create one or two big scoring chances,

1345
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 4: maybe a few other shots. They'll get on the board here,

1346
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:09,440
Speaker 4: and while Liverpool will probably win this game because of

1347
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:11,719
Speaker 4: how good their offense is, Brighton gets on the board.

1348
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:12,960
Speaker 4: Both teams score plus.

1349
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:15,200
Speaker 1: One oh five and BJ wrap this program up.

1350
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go Newcastle over half a goal at minus

1351
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 3: one ten. I mean I can't really get behind the

1352
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 3: Newcastle defense right now. Their bottom five and every defensive

1353
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 3: metric including allowing eighteen big scoring chances and nine matches,

1354
00:57:26,360 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 3: and the offense hasn't been that great, but they do

1355
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 3: have talented guys like Callum Wilson Allen Saint Maximum that

1356
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:33,480
Speaker 3: can get at this Chelsea back line that's so overdue

1357
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 3: to concede a goal, only three goals allowed this season

1358
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 3: off of ten point zeros to expected goals. They obviously

1359
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 3: just thrash Norwich seven to nothing, but the expected goal

1360
00:57:43,520 --> 00:57:46,280
Speaker 3: differential was pretty close, closer than you would think on

1361
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 3: that one. And hey, Newcastle's gotten on the board in

1362
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 3: eight of their nine matches this season, so let's bet

1363
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:53,400
Speaker 3: them to get on the board in this one against

1364
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:56,880
Speaker 3: this Chelsea defense. Newcastle over half a goal at minus

1365
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:57,400
Speaker 3: one ten.

1366
00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 1: And that'll do it for another episode of Wonder. We

1367
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:02,680
Speaker 1: hope you enjoyed the program, and if you did, please

1368
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 1: leave a review and make sure when you do that

1369
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 1: to leave your Twitter handle in set reviews so you

1370
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:09,760
Speaker 1: get entered into a contest to win the soccer jersey

1371
00:58:09,920 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 1: your choice for this season for bj Cunningham, for Anthony Dbundo.

1372
00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 1: I'm Michael Leeboff. We'll see you next week.