1 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:12,120 Speaker 1: Get technology with tech Stuff from stuff works dot com. 2 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: Hey there, and welcome to tex Stuff. I am your host, 3 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 1: Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer here at how Stuff Works. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 1: And if you are a long time listener to tech Stuff, 5 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: you know, every year, for for almost ten years now, 6 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: at the end of a calendar year, we make predictions 7 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 1: about what is going to happen in technology for the 8 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: following year. And every year I try to go back 9 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 1: and look at those predictions and see how well they 10 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 1: matched up to what actually happened. And usually, if I'm 11 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 1: being really generous, I get about fift right. Uh. But 12 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 1: it's always fun to try and make those predictions. And 13 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: sometimes you're making predictions you don't want to come true 14 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: and you hope that you end up being wrong. There 15 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 1: were a few of those in the seventeen predictions. We'll 16 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: have to see whether they ended up being the ones 17 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 1: that turned out to be wrong or not. Last year 18 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: I also had the good fortune to call upon some 19 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:15,479 Speaker 1: of my friends in the tech journalism space and they 20 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: joined me for the show and gave me a prediction 21 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 1: or two about what they thought was going to happen 22 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: the following year. So we'll talk about what their predictions 23 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 1: were as they, you know, came out through the show. 24 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna tackle this by order of the predictions 25 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: we made in the episode, So we're not going chronologically 26 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: through seen again. We just did that, but instead we're 27 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: going to look at these predictions and kind of try 28 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 1: and guess how well they did. Uh So, the first 29 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 1: prediction that I made was that we would see a 30 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: lot of VR and a R everywhere at c e S. 31 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: In fact, these first few predictions are all c e 32 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: S related because c e S takes place in January 33 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: every year. That's the Sumer Electronics Show. It's a big 34 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: trade show that happens in Las Vegas every year. And 35 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: we were getting ready to go, and I was trying 36 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: to think of the things that we're going to be 37 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,239 Speaker 1: a big deal at c e SEN, and I said 38 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,079 Speaker 1: that VR and a R would definitely be up there, 39 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: and that was true. V R and a R were huge, 40 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: huge types of technology, categories of technology that were on 41 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: display at c e S. Although these days we tend 42 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: to use the term mixed reality instead of just virtual 43 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: reality or augmented reality. However, would not see all of 44 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: the products and concepts that were on display at c 45 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: e S make it through to the end of the year. 46 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:44,079 Speaker 1: Some of those ended up fizzling out. For example, Intel 47 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: came to c e S and showed off a cool 48 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:51,519 Speaker 1: mixed reality headset concept called Project Alloy. Though the implementation 49 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: needed some refinement, it was pretty big and clunky. It 50 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: didn't create a smooth experience that people were hoping for either, 51 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 1: because it was using a different metho, the doology for 52 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: head tracking external head tracking. As it stands, Intel would 53 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: end up shelving Project Alloy at some point over the 54 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: summer of sev UH. It didn't really make the news initially. 55 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: It was only afterwards that the company came forward and 56 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: said it was having trouble finding partners interested in making 57 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,359 Speaker 1: the device. So while they had developed the internal technology 58 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: for Project Alloy, they were having trouble finding anyone that 59 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: would actually produce the hardware. Now, part of this issue 60 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,839 Speaker 1: probably stemmed from the fact that Microsoft was launching its 61 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: own mixed reality headset platform and they were attracting a 62 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: lot of interest from various partners, and so all these 63 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: companies that might have worked on Project Alloy were instead 64 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 1: kind of hitching their wagons to Microsoft. Intel continues to 65 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 1: invest in technologies that either played directly or indirectly into 66 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: mixed reality technology. So it's not all a loss. It's 67 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: not like Intel got out of the game Intel early. 68 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 1: They just said, well, Project Alloy as it stands doesn't 69 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: make a whole lot of sense. I also said that 70 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: there would be a lot of smart home and automation 71 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: stuff on display at c e S, which is kind 72 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: of a no brainer. Some of these predictions, I admit 73 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 1: are are kind of lame because anyone could have said this. 74 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: It's like saying, if you jump into the ocean, you're 75 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: gonna get wet. Well, the Internet of Things continued its 76 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: journey into becoming part of everything we can imagine, whether 77 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 1: you can make a good case for it to be 78 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: there or not. For example, Cara Stace loreal And with 79 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: Things or We Things, if you prefer, partnered to create 80 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 1: the Carras Stas Hair Coach hair brush, which sends information 81 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: from the brush to a smart device like a smartphone 82 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: or a tablet, to give you feedback on how well 83 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 1: you're brushing your hair. I see no point in this, 84 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 1: but then I have no hair, so brushes are sort 85 00:04:56,560 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 1: of not my bag to begin with. But other devices 86 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: like coffee makers, connected displays, things like that, they fit 87 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: more into what we come to expect from connected smart devices. 88 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: So there was a mixture. There was stuff that we 89 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: could see a practical application for right away, and other 90 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,119 Speaker 1: stuff that seemed more frivolous or just absurd. I also 91 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 1: said that there would be a lot more driver less 92 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 1: car technology on display at the e S Show, and 93 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 1: that was for sure the case. Everyone seemed to have 94 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: connected cars, or autonomous cars, or both. Chrysler showed off 95 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: an electric minivan with autonomous capabilities called the Portal Faraday Future, 96 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 1: the automotive startup company that we talked about back in 97 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: It still seems weird to say automotive startup company, although 98 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: you could argue Tesla did the same thing. They showed 99 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 1: off their FF nine one concept, and this one was 100 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 1: a slightly less futuristic looking vehicle than their sports car 101 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 1: concept they showed off the year earlier. Still pretty sleek 102 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 1: and sexy, just more in a utilitarian approach than sports car. 103 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: The f f n one is supposed to be able 104 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 1: to park itself, so it's semi autonomous. Toyota showed off 105 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:12,359 Speaker 1: a concept of a vehicle that would be able to 106 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: monitor the conditions and moods of the people inside the car, 107 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: dynamically adjusting conditions and even the route based on that feedback. 108 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: It could also take over if you wanted to, so 109 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 1: that was another concept that had this semi autonomous approach. 110 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 1: There seemed to be a lot of of concepts that 111 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: would allow for human control and then handing off that 112 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: control to a computer if you wanted to. I also 113 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:39,799 Speaker 1: said there'd be a lot more drone stuff at CS, 114 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: and there were tons of them. One drone was the 115 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: hover camera Passport, which can hold a position around you 116 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:48,919 Speaker 1: and take photos of you, just in case you wanted 117 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: some robo paparazzi treating you like a Hollywood superstar. I guess. 118 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: There were tons of other flying drones from various manufacturers, 119 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: many equipped with high definition cameras, and just a few 120 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 1: years ago, just the cameras would have cost tens of 121 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: thousands of dollars. Now you can find these style cameras 122 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: on flying machines that you can control by remote control 123 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: for less than a grand It's kind of crazy. These 124 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: devices really serve as evidence of how an emerging technology 125 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 1: can become commonplace in just a few years. There was 126 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 1: also an underwater drone called the power Vision power Ray 127 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: that is a fish finder and a fish hunter all 128 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: in one. It can carry baited lures and help you 129 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: snag a fish. This drone is a tethered drone. It 130 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: has to be connected to its power source, and that 131 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 1: makes sense because it also helps prevent it from drifting 132 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: too far away and then sleeping with the fish. Ees 133 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: I also said there'd be a lot of three sixty 134 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 1: degree cameras, and there were quite a few of those 135 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: on display at c e S. But this is also 136 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: where things get a little confusing, because there's no real 137 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: standardized format for three six cameras. In my mind, if 138 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: you say three sixty camera, I think of a camera 139 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: that's capable of taking an image in a three hundred 140 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: sixty degree arc, so a full circle around the the 141 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: the axis of the photographer. In other words, it would 142 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: be like if you were standing in a place, took 143 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 1: a photo, turned to the right, took another photo, and 144 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: just did like a panoramic photo in a full circle. 145 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: That's what I think of a three sixty degree cameras. 146 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: And then you would use some other device like a 147 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 1: phone or a headset to view the image and you 148 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: could turn around in place and see the complete image 149 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: as you turn in a physical space. That's what I 150 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: think of. But some companies capture only on eight degrees 151 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 1: of arc. Some are capable of capturing three D images, 152 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: some are only two D. Some people refer to these 153 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 1: as VR cameras. I don't really like that term. I 154 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: don't think of it as VR. To me, virtual reality 155 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 1: requires a computer generated environment. It needs to be a 156 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: virtual environment, not just a video overlay. Otherwise I would 157 00:08:56,360 --> 00:09:00,079 Speaker 1: argue any movie as a virtual reality film. Uh, grant it. 158 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: Typically you can control the point of view because you 159 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:05,319 Speaker 1: could turn your head and you can change the perspective 160 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: you're looking at. But that's the extent of interactivity for 161 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: most of these computers, and I don't really think of 162 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 1: that as being true virtual reality. I feel like you 163 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,319 Speaker 1: have to be able to affect your environment in some way, 164 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 1: apart from just being able to change your perspective. Anyway, 165 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:21,679 Speaker 1: there were a ton of these at c E S. 166 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 1: There was the views VR camera, the Hublo four K 167 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 1: thirty frames per second three D video camera, the lucid 168 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: Cam one degree three D personal camera, the Insta three 169 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: sixty pro. The list goes on and on. There were 170 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: just tons of them. There were drones with three degree 171 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: camera capabilities. It was just really popular technology on the floor. 172 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 1: I'm not really sure that that popularity has translated to 173 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: great commercial success. I don't know that there have been 174 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: a run on these sort of cameras. I don't think 175 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: they've received like huge sales figures. And I haven't seen 176 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: very many implementations that managed to get beyond the sort 177 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: of gimmicky feel for the technology. But it's very early, 178 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: so it may be that someone is really working on 179 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 1: a really cool implementation that's going to be the killer app. 180 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: In other words, I did not predict all the voice 181 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: activation stuff, however, and there was a lot of that 182 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: on the show floor as well. You could find voice 183 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 1: activated assistants incorporated into tons of different products, particularly in 184 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 1: the automotive sections of the show floor, and you could 185 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: also find the technology incorporated into other gadgets, such as 186 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: Amazon's Alexa being included as a feature on LGS smart 187 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 1: instabuw refrigerator, so you can ask your refrigerator if it's 188 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 1: running and until it jokes. I also didn't predict that 189 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: smart watches would have a less prominent space at c S, 190 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 1: though I really should have seen that one coming. Smart 191 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 1: Watches are a category that have never really taken off, 192 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 1: with the possible exception of Apple's Watch, and there were 193 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,559 Speaker 1: some notable departures in the field the year before, particularly 194 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: Pebble once it got a quired by Fitbit. But while 195 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: smart watches were mostly a no show, fitness trackers were 196 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: everywhere at CE seen and they continue to be really popular. 197 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 1: And I like the concept of fitness trackers, but I 198 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: honestly wonder how viable the category is for growth. After all, 199 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: I have a tracker that works just fine, so I 200 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 1: don't anticipate needing to replace it for a while, even 201 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: if another one comes out that has more features than 202 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: mine has. Unless those features are just incredibly compelling, there's 203 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: just not really any incentive on my part to upgrade. 204 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: So my feel is that once you hit market saturation, 205 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 1: where all the people who want one of these essentially 206 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: have one, your your market drives up. You don't really 207 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: I mean, how do you sell another fitness tracker to 208 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 1: someone who already has one unless they just happened to 209 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 1: have this kind of obsessive collection mentality. But at CES 210 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: it was clear that many companies feel strongly that we've 211 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 1: not yet reached this point. Now we'll move out out 212 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 1: of the ce S predictions into some of the other 213 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 1: ones I did. I made this prediction about Apple. I said, 214 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 1: the new iPhone will be a bigger and boulder departure 215 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 1: from the traditional design. I was thinking this because it 216 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 1: was the tenth anniversary of the iPhone, so I thought, well, 217 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 1: Apple is going to have to do something to set 218 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: it apart, because this is you know, we we set 219 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: great importance on these things like ten year marks. Even 220 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: though you could argue that's just completely arbitrary, we make 221 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 1: it very important. That being said, the tenth anniversary of 222 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: tech stuff is coming up pretty soon, I'm going to 223 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 1: have to start thinking about that. Well, the prediction ended 224 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: up being true in some ways. At least, Apple introduced 225 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: two phones at the same time. In case you don't remember, 226 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: there was the iPhone eight, which was more of an 227 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 1: evolutionary product. It was kind of following in the same 228 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,600 Speaker 1: sort of design footsteps as its predecessors. And then there 229 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: was the iPhone ten or iPhone X, which was a 230 00:12:56,080 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: more dramatic departure from earlier iPhone designs. Now as Apple says, quote, 231 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: our vision has always been to create an iPhone that 232 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 1: is entirely screen end quote. It's actually from the Apple Store, 233 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 1: and the iPhone ten incorporates features like voice commands and 234 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: facial recognition more than earlier iPhones, though the eight has 235 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: a few of those features as well, and some of 236 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: the differences between the eight and the ten once you 237 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 1: get past the screen are really not that dramatic. So 238 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: while the physical design might be a bit of a departure, 239 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: I don't think it's really that bold of a change 240 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: in design. And while both phones have more powerful processors 241 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: and even more impressive photography algorithms and processing abilities, I 242 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 1: don't know that I would call this prediction a total win, 243 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: because it wasn't quite as dramatic as I was hoping for. 244 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 1: I also said we'd get a sneak peek at Apple's 245 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: autonomous car technology, which we did, but only because some 246 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: people in San Francisco have snapped photos of it. It's 247 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: not because of Apple. McAlister Higgins, who has worked on 248 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 1: autonomous car technology for a while, referred to the images 249 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: of the car as the thing. But the code name 250 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: for Apple's project is called Project Tighten the Cars have 251 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: these big roof mounted sensor arrays that are all cased 252 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:18,679 Speaker 1: in white plastic. It's very typical Apple approach, but they 253 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: are extremely bulky looking and conspicuous. They also seem to 254 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 1: contain a ton of sensors, including six Linar sensors, which 255 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 1: is a bit of overkill. Apple applied for and received 256 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 1: a permit to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in 257 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: California in according to anonymous sources, so take this with 258 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 1: a grain of salt. Apple shifted its strategy from building 259 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: an entirely new vehicle to developing software that will power 260 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: other manufacturers autonomous cars. So there's been no official sneak 261 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 1: peak from the company yet, just people spying on it 262 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: from AFAR and then taking photos and uploading them to 263 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: various social networking sites. I also said that more states 264 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 1: would create formalized rules for autonomous cars operating on state roads, 265 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: which is true. In twenty states introduced self driving car legislation. 266 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 1: In thirty three states had car legislation for autonomous cars there, 267 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 1: so we've seen more movement on that front. Twenty one 268 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: states Georgia among them, have enacted that legislation. Others it's 269 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 1: still kind of in the process of that. In addition, 270 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: the US federal government is weighing in. On September twelve, 271 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen, the National Highway and Transportation Safety Administration 272 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: released federal guidelines for automated driving systems. So that one 273 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 1: was correct. Yea. I said that Uber will test an 274 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: autonomous car with no one in the driver's seat in 275 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: a major market before the end of and I haven't 276 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 1: found any reports of that actually happening. I think perhaps 277 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 1: Uber's seventeen was so rough that it may have slowed 278 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: down their bullish adoption of driverless vehicle technolog GEZ. The 279 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: company is still enthusiastically pursuing this technology, but perhaps with 280 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: a bit less gusto than they were at the end 281 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 1: of twenty six before all of their legal troubles began. 282 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: Part of that may be due to a crash that 283 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: happened in Arizona that put the brakes literally on their 284 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: self driving tests in Phoenix, San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Police 285 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: later determined the crash was not the Uber vehicle's fault, 286 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: it was the fault of the other driver, and Pittsburgh 287 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 1: residents have since become less enchanted with Uber overtime as 288 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: the company has seemingly failed to follow through on many 289 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: of the promises it made. When the original negotiations were 290 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: taking place to use Pittsburgh as a test city, there 291 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 1: were all these different promises Uber was making that it 292 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: seems to not have made good on. For example, there 293 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: were reports that Uber was beginning to charge money for 294 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 1: driverless car trips, when initially the agreement was that all 295 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 1: these test drives would be provided free of charge to passengers. 296 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 1: So I have to call this one a miss, because 297 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: as far as I could tell, there was no case 298 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 1: where there was no one in the driver's seat. There 299 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: was always an operator standing by from all the reports 300 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 1: I could find. Keeping in mind that I'm recording this December, 301 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 1: so I still have a few days for that one 302 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 1: to come true. Maybe I said that hyperlop tests would 303 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: prove to be sound from an engineering perspective, but would 304 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: find the real challenge to be in the economics of 305 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,239 Speaker 1: laying out a hyper loop, and this one I think 306 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 1: I nailed pretty well. There were several tests of hyperloop 307 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: like technology in twenty seen. Most of them used mag 308 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 1: lev methodologies magnetic levitation to provide for transportation pods to 309 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: float above tracks. This is different from the original design 310 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: Elon Musk had in mind, which was to use what 311 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 1: he called air skis, which the transportation pods would expel 312 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: air downward against the track and that would create lift, 313 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:01,720 Speaker 1: kind of like an uh air hockey table turned upside 314 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: down and juiced up a whole bunch. But we did 315 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:09,199 Speaker 1: see several examples of the hyperlop technology working, including a 316 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: test that saw a pod accelerate to more than two 317 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: hundred miles per hour. So this is still far below 318 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 1: what Musk's design originally proposed. And as for economic challenges, 319 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,399 Speaker 1: I wasn't the only person to suggest this. Timo matin 320 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 1: in A, an engineer from Finland, and I apologize for 321 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:30,200 Speaker 1: completely butchering his name, conducted a study about the potential 322 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: for hyperloop concluded that the billions of dollars that would 323 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: be necessary to make a working system meant the project 324 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: had a chance of success that hovered somewhere around six percent. 325 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 1: That being said, Hyperloop one held a round of funding 326 00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: in the fall of seventeen and raised another eighty five 327 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: million dollars, so we haven't exactly hit that barrier just 328 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: yet still, until we see a real construction project connecting 329 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:01,959 Speaker 1: two distant cities together the hyper It remains an interesting proposition, 330 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 1: but still is a long shot in my opinion. Now 331 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 1: I have a lot more predictions to talk about, but 332 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 1: before I get into all of those, let's take a 333 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: quick break to thank our sponsor. So in that predictions 334 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 1: episode in seen my friend I as actar, a guy 335 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 1: who works for c net came on and he made 336 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 1: a prediction. He said that Alphabet will get into wireless 337 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:36,439 Speaker 1: internet service in a big way in ten and I 338 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 1: would say, who's mostly right about this? It's still pretty 339 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: early days all things considered, but clearly the momentum at 340 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 1: Google is in wireless service. Alphabet is the parent company 341 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: for Google, so I often will use the two interchangeably. 342 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: We saw an early seventeen that the company began to 343 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: downsize employees working in the Google Fiber division, and it 344 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 1: was abundantly clear that the company was scaling way back 345 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: on its plans to connect cities with fiber and compete 346 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 1: against entrenched Internet service providers. For one thing, Google had 347 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 1: to continuously fight with various regulations that gave preferential treatment 348 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,120 Speaker 1: to traditional I s p s for stuff like access 349 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,440 Speaker 1: to utility polls. So it's hard to supply cable to 350 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: customers if you're not allowed to access the existing infrastructure. 351 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,199 Speaker 1: And while Project five remains a phone plan alternative that 352 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 1: you can use if you so wish, Google's push is 353 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 1: much much bigger than that. Ours Technica reported in February 354 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 1: seen that the then new wireless division in Google Fiber 355 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: called web Pass, had put out a call for a 356 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 1: new general manager to head up the division. Web Pass 357 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: was a gigabit wireless company that Google acquired in October. 358 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: By June, Google had expanded web Pass into its seventh 359 00:20:55,840 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 1: market by opening up for business in Seattle, Washington. Google 360 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: Fiber the wired version continued to operate in the cities 361 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 1: where it had already been deployed, and in San Antonio. 362 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,880 Speaker 1: Google even dropped the price of its gigabit wired service 363 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: to fifty dollars a month, which was down from seventy 364 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 1: seventy dollars a month in all other markets. Now back 365 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 1: to one of my predictions, I said that was going 366 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: to be a make or break year for VR, and 367 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 1: I said there'd probably be more VR experiences and amusement 368 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 1: parks and arcade style businesses rather than at the home. 369 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,160 Speaker 1: For Right now, that seems to more or less be true, 370 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 1: though it's not necessarily going to be the case moving forward. 371 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 1: Hardware manufacturers are trying to bring costs down to make 372 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: detect more attractive to a larger user base. HTC cut 373 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: two dollars off it's VR kit, and there are a 374 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:49,200 Speaker 1: lot more developers creating virtual experiences for that hardware to leverage. 375 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: This includes some big name ports over into the VR experience, 376 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:57,159 Speaker 1: such as Skyrim. Complicating my judgment of this prediction is 377 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 1: that neither HTC nor Oculus release sales figures, so it's 378 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 1: hard to judge how well they're doing. Though by August, 379 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: most analysts felt that neither brand had sold as many 380 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: as five hundred thousand units. Sony fared better in ten, 381 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 1: claiming the companies sold nine hundred fifteen thousand units of 382 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 1: the PlayStation VR, but that number hadn't increased by much 383 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:24,360 Speaker 1: over the following several months. According to tech Crunch, Sony's 384 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: total units sold had topped at one million in June. 385 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 1: So think of it this way. The hardware debuts in 386 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,919 Speaker 1: and sells nine fifteen thousand units, but then over the 387 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 1: next half year fewer than a hundred thousand more units 388 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:47,560 Speaker 1: move off store shelves. That is not a good story. Gardner, however, 389 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,360 Speaker 1: estimates that VR has made it through the hype cycle 390 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 1: for emerging technologies. Now, the hype cycle, it looks like 391 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: a very sharp inverted the trench. Actually it's more of 392 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,120 Speaker 1: a hill, right. So if you start the very far 393 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: left of a hype cycle chart, you have a technology 394 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 1: that's just beginning to emerge. Then people get excited about it, 395 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 1: and it starts to follow this very sharp curb until 396 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,120 Speaker 1: it gets to the peak of its hype cycle. Then 397 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 1: starts to come down as people begin to get frustrated. 398 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: Maybe they're waiting too long for the technology to get 399 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,439 Speaker 1: into their hands, or maybe the early builds of the 400 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 1: technology don't measure up to what you imagined it would be, 401 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: and so it sharply goes down the hype cycle until 402 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: it hits a trough, uh the trough of disillusionment, and 403 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: then slowly starts to climb out of that and becomes 404 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,640 Speaker 1: a more stable technology. Gardner says that VR has finally 405 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: done that, it's made that turn. Not everyone agrees with this. 406 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 1: Some people think so, but not everybody. So maybe VR 407 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: has made it out of the woods and we'll just 408 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 1: see it get adopted more gradually. It has become an 409 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: integral component of many different high end and not so 410 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: high end amusement park experiences. So I was kinder right 411 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: about this one. The next prediction came to us courtesy 412 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 1: of Mr Tom Merritt, the host of the daily tech 413 00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 1: news show, or co host, I should say he and 414 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 1: Sarah Lane host that show. By the end of seen, 415 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 1: he said, the combined number of subscribers to new over 416 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 1: the Internet live television services will be the number three 417 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 1: largest cable company, behind Comcast and Spectrum. In other words, 418 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 1: it would be in front of cable Vision or what 419 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:32,719 Speaker 1: was then called cable Vision Now. Variety reported in September 420 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,160 Speaker 1: that twenty two point to million adults in the United 421 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 1: States had cut the chord on traditional television service, which 422 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 1: was an increase from twenty six and that the number 423 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: of people who have never subscribed to a traditional television 424 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 1: provider service rose to thirty four point four million people, 425 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,959 Speaker 1: which was an increase of five point eight percent from 426 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 1: the previous year. But that's not quite the same thing 427 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 1: as what Tom was saying. He was talking about internet 428 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 1: live televisi services, something like YouTube TV or who lose 429 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:08,640 Speaker 1: live TV service well. According to Variety, again, virtual subscription 430 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: TV services like those actually helped reverse, though only slightly, 431 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:18,440 Speaker 1: a decline in pay TV subscribers. So if you include 432 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,919 Speaker 1: the virtual subscription services, the number of people in the 433 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 1: United States subscribing to pay TV actually grew by ninety 434 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 1: thousand in the third quarter of seventeen. This was a 435 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 1: number that had been in decline, but once you take 436 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,919 Speaker 1: in these alternative methods and you factor those in, the 437 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: numbers change. Considering this was eventually going to be a 438 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 1: pretty major decline, It's it's kind of interesting, but it 439 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: does not mean people stopped cutting the cord, uh, but 440 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 1: rather some people are shifting their traditional pay TV services around, 441 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 1: so they'll go from cable or satellite for their television 442 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 1: to these virtual services. According to the Nielsen Total Audience 443 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: or for a Q two of which was the latest 444 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,119 Speaker 1: one I could get before this recording, nine million, three 445 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:13,000 Speaker 1: four thousand Americans get their television from broadcast and broadband access, 446 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: meaning they're only using and antenna and or internet services 447 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:24,160 Speaker 1: to access traditional pay TV content. Cable Vision, which Tom 448 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 1: said would be pushed to fourth place after Internet pay 449 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:32,199 Speaker 1: tv was acquired by Altice USA in seventeen and was 450 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 1: rebranded as Optimum. Now the subscriber number for Optimum is 451 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,959 Speaker 1: two point four million. So even if we assume most 452 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 1: of that approximately nine point four million broadcast and broadcamp 453 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 1: Broadcom number from the Nielsen report, even if most of 454 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 1: them do not use Internet for pay TV and they 455 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 1: just get television over the air, there's still a really 456 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 1: good chance that Tom was right on this one, that 457 00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,160 Speaker 1: more than two point four million people are getting their 458 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: television through the Internet, and thus pushing Optimum to the 459 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,880 Speaker 1: fourth place in cable. If you look at satellite providers, 460 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 1: it's different. Satellite has larger numbers, but if you look 461 00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 1: at actual cable service, it would mean that Optimum is 462 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,159 Speaker 1: fourth place. I then had another prediction, which was that 463 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: we'd see a big increase in Internet of things devices 464 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:24,159 Speaker 1: that work with personal assistants like Alexa or Google's Assistant 465 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,440 Speaker 1: and that sort of thing, and that we would see 466 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,600 Speaker 1: a lot of growth in that area, which is true. 467 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 1: There have been tons of different products that have compatibility 468 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 1: with those services built into them. Even so, I think 469 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 1: this is just the beginning, and we'll see an explosion 470 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 1: of this technology in ten But I suppose I should 471 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 1: probably save that one for the actual Predictions episode. The 472 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,760 Speaker 1: next one came from Shannon Morse of Hack five Fame. 473 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 1: I've had Shannon on the show a couple of times. 474 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,120 Speaker 1: She said that Marai, the big butt net that attacked 475 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 1: Internet of Things devices, would create big changes from manufacturers 476 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,159 Speaker 1: and spur on new conversations about Internet of things security 477 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 1: and lead us to ask tough questions as well as 478 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,479 Speaker 1: developed some new monitoring software that will look for potential 479 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 1: vulnerabilities before they can be exploited. Well, we did see 480 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,439 Speaker 1: a lot more talk about network security and Internet of 481 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 1: things security and the wacom aray, but golly, we sure 482 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 1: saw some high profile security breaches too. Now, to be fair, 483 00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 1: some of those happened a while back and we just 484 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:26,479 Speaker 1: weren't told about them until later. But while security remains 485 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 1: an ongoing conversation, we still see reports of vulnerabilities either 486 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:35,920 Speaker 1: going unchecked or purposefully unreported. For example, and this isn't 487 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,479 Speaker 1: an Internet of things example. This is more of a 488 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:42,400 Speaker 1: computer based example. But the Wanna cry virus, which could 489 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 1: have been way worse had it not been for one 490 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 1: security researchers discovery of an Internet kill switch. It was 491 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 1: based off a Windows vulnerability that was known by the 492 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 1: n s A, but the n s A had allegedly 493 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 1: decided against making Microsoft aware of the vulnerability in order 494 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 1: for them to create their own agency specific exploit. A 495 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 1: second virus targeting the exact same vulnerability, called Petya, caused problems, 496 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 1: mostly in the Ukraine later in then there were the 497 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,560 Speaker 1: data breaches Equifax, which affected more than a hundred million people, 498 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: and then there were the ones that hit uber. I 499 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,560 Speaker 1: don't think we'll ever go a year without some sort 500 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:27,080 Speaker 1: of data breach or system uh hijacking. Tech security is 501 00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,160 Speaker 1: just it's tricky. You've got a lot of systems that 502 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 1: change with various updates. Sometimes that creates unintentional consequences such 503 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 1: as vulnerabilities, And you still have human beings in the picture, 504 00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 1: and and we are manipulatable goofuses at times. I think 505 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 1: Shannon is right that we saw more conversations about security. 506 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that they did much good. I don't 507 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 1: know that the Internet of things devices of today, the 508 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 1: general ones, are that much more secure than the ones 509 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 1: we were talking about a year ago. But then again, 510 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 1: there's no way to really know about all the attacks 511 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,480 Speaker 1: that didn't happen because people took the right action or 512 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 1: companies put in the right systems. We don't know about 513 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 1: the ones that failed because there's nothing newsworthy about that. 514 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 1: We only know about the ones that succeeded. So maybe 515 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 1: she is right, and it's quite possible she is, but 516 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 1: it's hard to say back to some of my amazingly 517 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 1: astute predictions, such as Moore's law would become less of 518 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,640 Speaker 1: a factor and now it would be more about optimization 519 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 1: rather than pushing hardware capabilities. Well. Greg Garrick, who works 520 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 1: for arm, a company that makes microprocessors, told the E 521 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 1: n T back in May, I do think we are 522 00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,240 Speaker 1: approaching the limits of conventional scaling with silicon. If you 523 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: just did the math, you could convince yourself that cost 524 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 1: per transistor scaling will soon stop, and you get pretty 525 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 1: pessimistic about the industry's future. This actually helps illustrate that 526 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 1: Moore's law is more about economics than anything else. You 527 00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 1: might be able to figure out a way to perpet 528 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 1: wait Moore's law, but the cost of doing so would 529 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 1: be so high that it would not be profitable. It 530 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 1: wouldn't make any sense to do it from an economic standpoint. 531 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,480 Speaker 1: So it's not just the technological barriers but also the 532 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 1: economic ones. Now, there are some other strategies we can employ, 533 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 1: such as using three dimensional processors, which will stack elements 534 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 1: on top of each other and allow for shorter transmission 535 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 1: distances between memory and processor. That could speed things up 536 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: even if we slow down on creating incredibly small components. 537 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 1: According to Media Text chairman Psi mn Kai, we may 538 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,959 Speaker 1: have only two more generations of shrinking transistors before we 539 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 1: hit a real wall via physics, and making smaller components 540 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,040 Speaker 1: is expensive, so there's the question on whether you can 541 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 1: make a return on the investment to build transistors that 542 00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,360 Speaker 1: are that small. We've seen a lot more movement in 543 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 1: optimizing software so it runs more efficiently on the hardware 544 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 1: we've created, but I think we're still holding onto this 545 00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 1: dream of Moore's law for a little while longer. I 546 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 1: also said, and more companies will move services to the 547 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:06,400 Speaker 1: cloud rather than having everything on local devices, which was 548 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 1: kind of a no brainer. According to all the articles 549 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 1: I could find, that's the case, and it looks like 550 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,400 Speaker 1: it's still the beginning of a bigger trend to offload 551 00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,880 Speaker 1: stuff like computing and data storage tasks to other platforms. 552 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 1: According to Waterford Technologies of businesses are planning to increase 553 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,720 Speaker 1: their investment in cloud technologies, with a big and mid 554 00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 1: size companies planning to increase spend compared spending on that 555 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 1: compared to only thirty of smaller firms. So still going strong. 556 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:35,040 Speaker 1: But this one was kind of a gimme. Alright, We're 557 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,000 Speaker 1: coming up to the last few predictions, but before I 558 00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 1: jump into those, let's take another quick break and thank 559 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 1: our sponsor. Our next prediction comes from Jason Howell, who 560 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 1: is a host over at twit and Jason Howell says 561 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 1: push back on social media and over sharing online would 562 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 1: happen in and you'd start to see people back away 563 00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,800 Speaker 1: from social networks in general. And keep in mind he 564 00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:10,560 Speaker 1: made this prediction uh in the wake of the election, 565 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: which had stirred up an awful lot of ugliness on 566 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:21,240 Speaker 1: all sides about fake news, about trolling, about abuse, and 567 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:22,600 Speaker 1: there were a lot of people who were kind of 568 00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:26,200 Speaker 1: getting sick of social networks at the time. But it 569 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,920 Speaker 1: seems like this hasn't quite shaken out the way Jason 570 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:33,080 Speaker 1: originally imagined. According to a few reports over the summer, 571 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:37,800 Speaker 1: there was a slight dip in Facebook's active users during 572 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 1: the summer months, but according to most analysts, that's pretty 573 00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:44,600 Speaker 1: typical for that time of year. It just kind of happens. 574 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,959 Speaker 1: There were no indications of an actual decline and active 575 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 1: users on a year over year basis. Twitter also saw 576 00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 1: a growth in teen, though not at the rates that 577 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:58,160 Speaker 1: they want. According to the Balance, Twitter added about nine 578 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,240 Speaker 1: million new users from twenty team to the second quarter 579 00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:06,480 Speaker 1: of uh There have been a lot of criticisms directed 580 00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 1: at social media in general and Facebook and Twitter in particular, 581 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 1: again in those areas of harassment and spreading false information, 582 00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:20,400 Speaker 1: but it hasn't quite convinced people to abandon the format entirely. 583 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,239 Speaker 1: My next prediction was that Twitter would have a very 584 00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:27,719 Speaker 1: roughen unless someone would acquire it. It could be in 585 00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 1: danger of going away, which is probably a little more 586 00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,360 Speaker 1: doom and gloom than it merited, but I wanted to 587 00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,920 Speaker 1: make a big prediction. There was this ongoing problem with 588 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,640 Speaker 1: harassment on Twitter, which is really only grown worse depending 589 00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 1: upon who you ask. Whom you ask, it's it's pretty 590 00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 1: pretty ugly. Twitter is still around, though it's not teetering yet, 591 00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,800 Speaker 1: but there have been some developments that show cause for concern. 592 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:55,040 Speaker 1: Jessica Really, who had been with the company, for nine years, 593 00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:59,880 Speaker 1: essentially the entire history of Twitter left the company in December. 594 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,880 Speaker 1: Seen Really was the head of corporate development over at 595 00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:09,440 Speaker 1: Twitter and the lead in the company acquisition efforts that 596 00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:12,400 Speaker 1: it had throughout the years, but Twitter didn't make a 597 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,759 Speaker 1: move to acquire any other companies in Seen at all. 598 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 1: Business Insider reported that Twitter's ad business is quote demand 599 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,919 Speaker 1: constrained into quote, which is business speak for advertisers aren't 600 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:31,400 Speaker 1: gonna pay us more to do stuff. The Business Insider 601 00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:35,560 Speaker 1: article identified two areas of opportunity for Twitter. One was 602 00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:39,440 Speaker 1: to create a better return on investment measurement for businesses 603 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:41,960 Speaker 1: so that they can see how their marketing dollars are 604 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: paying off when they use Twitter. The other was to 605 00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:49,000 Speaker 1: create better technology for smaller advertisers that can't depend upon 606 00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 1: big departments that larger companies have. The article also stated 607 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 1: that users are leaving Twitter, though that contradicts the other 608 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,239 Speaker 1: report I saw earlier. Then again, a net gain and 609 00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,440 Speaker 1: Twitter users could just mean that more people around the 610 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,799 Speaker 1: world are getting access to the basic technology like smartphones 611 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,640 Speaker 1: that allow you to get access to Twitter. The Motley 612 00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:12,800 Speaker 1: Fool has a cautiously optimistic outlook for Twitter, but acknowledges 613 00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:16,200 Speaker 1: the company still has a tough road ahead. It remains unprofitable, 614 00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,200 Speaker 1: and the growth in users has slowed significantly. I said 615 00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,840 Speaker 1: also that there will be new attempts to curtail fake 616 00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,160 Speaker 1: news online, and we've seen efforts from Google, Twitter, and 617 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:30,440 Speaker 1: Facebook to combat the fake news issue. These haven't been 618 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,839 Speaker 1: uniformly successful. In fact, in recent events, there have been 619 00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:37,319 Speaker 1: reports of fake news articles giving misleading information on these 620 00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 1: platforms and even rising to prominence through their algorithms. This 621 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,440 Speaker 1: will likely be a continuing issue in ten but definitely 622 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,959 Speaker 1: true that major companies are working hard to push back 623 00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,839 Speaker 1: against the flood of misinformation out there. Whether it will 624 00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,840 Speaker 1: be enough remains to be seen. Also said that there 625 00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:58,920 Speaker 1: will be more automation in and there would also, as 626 00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,200 Speaker 1: a result, be more at the kits for a universal 627 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,719 Speaker 1: basic income concept because we would see automation take over 628 00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,480 Speaker 1: some jobs that traditionally would be held by people. The 629 00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,920 Speaker 1: story about automation and its effect on the job market 630 00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:14,400 Speaker 1: continued throughout teen. Mckensey Global Institute issued a report that 631 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:18,760 Speaker 1: predicts that by automation could eliminate as many as seventy 632 00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:22,400 Speaker 1: three million jobs in the United States alone, But the 633 00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,359 Speaker 1: report also states that the economic growth that happens will 634 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 1: create more than enough new jobs to accommodate existing workers 635 00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:33,280 Speaker 1: as well as new ones, So the report did acknowledge 636 00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,640 Speaker 1: that the nature of the work would change quite a bit. 637 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,320 Speaker 1: This poses an enormous challenge because how do you port 638 00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:41,920 Speaker 1: somebody over from one job to another. It's not like 639 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,560 Speaker 1: the same basic skill set can be applied to any 640 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:48,520 Speaker 1: type of job. Forrester Research predicts that in two thousand eighteen, 641 00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:53,680 Speaker 1: AI automation will eliminate nine of US jobs, these jobs 642 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:57,280 Speaker 1: largely being in the white collar sector. That's the sector 643 00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,840 Speaker 1: that has relatively been safe from automation until fairly recently, 644 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,200 Speaker 1: and according to their research, Forrester says that the automation 645 00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 1: will only create two percent growth in jobs, so a 646 00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:11,000 Speaker 1: nine percent loss and a two percent growth offset. As 647 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,359 Speaker 1: for universal basic income, the concept has received a ton 648 00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:18,640 Speaker 1: of media attention in ten. The basic idea is that 649 00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,920 Speaker 1: a government will provide a base amount of money to 650 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:26,080 Speaker 1: all of its citizens that are qualifying for such an program. 651 00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:29,800 Speaker 1: Usually it's based on age and regardless of that citizens 652 00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:33,320 Speaker 1: other sources of income. So let's just say for argument's 653 00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:37,200 Speaker 1: sake that it's twenty tho dollars everyone would get the 654 00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:41,080 Speaker 1: same basic twenty dollars. There are numerous examples of studies 655 00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,520 Speaker 1: on this idea throughout the world, and there's a lot 656 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,880 Speaker 1: of disagreement about whether or not it would work. Meanwhile, 657 00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:50,240 Speaker 1: more folks are eyeing the robots warily. This is another 658 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,000 Speaker 1: story I expect will continue to evolve inen with more 659 00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,840 Speaker 1: people calling for a serious discussion about universal basic income. 660 00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,080 Speaker 1: And then Shannon Morris also had another prediction, actually, and 661 00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,280 Speaker 1: I talked with her. This was her technically her first prediction, 662 00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,080 Speaker 1: but I played it second in the episode, and it 663 00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,040 Speaker 1: was that net neutrality will have a big hit in 664 00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:13,040 Speaker 1: seen like, it'll take a big step back and privacy 665 00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:17,600 Speaker 1: protections will get stripped away to create a more surveillance state. Now, 666 00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,920 Speaker 1: I also said that I thought net neutrality would suffer 667 00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:25,600 Speaker 1: an enormous setback in as I mentioned earlier, I'm recording 668 00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:30,680 Speaker 1: this episode on December. On December, the f c C 669 00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,400 Speaker 1: met to vote on whether or not to overturn the 670 00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,680 Speaker 1: regulations that had been passed two years previously that classified 671 00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:43,880 Speaker 1: internet broadband as a public utility and gave the FCC 672 00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:48,680 Speaker 1: the authority to regulate the industry. And just as I thought, 673 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:52,520 Speaker 1: just as everybody thought anyone could predict it. It was 674 00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,360 Speaker 1: not a secret. The vote came down to party lines, 675 00:39:55,640 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 1: three for overturning, two against. So those rules are being overturned. Uh, Again, 676 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:07,080 Speaker 1: not a surprise. This was pretty much guaranteed to happen 677 00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,200 Speaker 1: from the very beginning of seventeen, which is why that 678 00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:14,239 Speaker 1: prediction was so easy to make a year ago. It was. 679 00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:16,080 Speaker 1: It would have been a shock for it to turn 680 00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,240 Speaker 1: out any other way. There was a lot of drama 681 00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:22,920 Speaker 1: to that story too. Throughout. Uh. There there's an ongoing 682 00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:28,880 Speaker 1: investigation into false comments that were left in support of 683 00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:34,040 Speaker 1: overturning the rules, millions of them that were falsely filed, 684 00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:38,480 Speaker 1: attributing those comments to people, some of whom are dead 685 00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,239 Speaker 1: and obviously could not have commented on the issue at all. 686 00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:47,200 Speaker 1: So there's still that story that's ongoing. There's also going 687 00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,279 Speaker 1: to be some lawsuits that will be filed in the 688 00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:54,759 Speaker 1: wake of this decision, so it's not a done deal. However, Uh, 689 00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,239 Speaker 1: you could easily argue that net neutrality did take a 690 00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,640 Speaker 1: major setback in twenty seventeen, which is what Shannon and 691 00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:03,600 Speaker 1: I were both saying, So we both get a big 692 00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,480 Speaker 1: check mark next to that one. Although This was one 693 00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:07,920 Speaker 1: of those cases where I think we both would have 694 00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:10,920 Speaker 1: really liked to have been wrong. I also said that 695 00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,360 Speaker 1: we're going to see some big movements in renewable energy 696 00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:17,040 Speaker 1: with Google trying to go on renewable, and there was 697 00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:22,040 Speaker 1: also the upcoming Testla Solar City merger, which was absolutely correct. 698 00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:27,280 Speaker 1: Google did hit on renewable in December. According to Box, 699 00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:31,839 Speaker 1: Google uses as much electricity as all of San Francisco. 700 00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:36,279 Speaker 1: Google purchased three giga watts of renewable energy capacity in 701 00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,800 Speaker 1: order to hit this earlier stated goal of being powered 702 00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:43,760 Speaker 1: by renewable energy sources, although that's a little misleading. Google 703 00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:48,400 Speaker 1: purchased renewable energy certificates, which are meant to guarantee a 704 00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,279 Speaker 1: certain amount of renewable energy is allocated to something, but 705 00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:55,680 Speaker 1: the actual electricity powering Google's operations may or may not 706 00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:00,040 Speaker 1: come from renewable energy sources themselves. Google's purchasing certific it 707 00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:03,640 Speaker 1: gets that represent renewable energy. That doesn't mean renewable energy 708 00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:07,480 Speaker 1: is actually powering all of these Google centers. Google's paying 709 00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:12,000 Speaker 1: a bill so that it might sell that renewable energy 710 00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,760 Speaker 1: back to the market somewhere else. And this might sound 711 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,680 Speaker 1: a bit like a giant shell game to you, because 712 00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:21,280 Speaker 1: I know it does to me. But Google is retired, 713 00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,360 Speaker 1: retiring these certificates, so they can't just be bought and 714 00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:28,720 Speaker 1: traded without anyone, you know, actually relying on the renewable 715 00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,279 Speaker 1: energy it has to be used. Otherwise you would have 716 00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,480 Speaker 1: these sheets of paper that would represent blocks of energy, 717 00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:39,440 Speaker 1: but maybe no one's actually cashing it in, which seems 718 00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:45,880 Speaker 1: really weird, like humans are bizarre. I don't get economics, guys, 719 00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,600 Speaker 1: technology I barely have a grasp on. But I'll probably 720 00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,239 Speaker 1: have to do a full episode on renewable energy certificates 721 00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,640 Speaker 1: at some point and really explore how they work and 722 00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:57,760 Speaker 1: whether it actually means companies are switching to environmentally friendly 723 00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,200 Speaker 1: energy sources or whether it's just smoke and mirrors. By 724 00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:05,080 Speaker 1: the way, smoke and mirrors are not environmentally friendly. Well 725 00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,080 Speaker 1: that's it. Those are all the predictions I made for 726 00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:12,000 Speaker 1: and I did all right, I think better than many 727 00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:17,080 Speaker 1: other years. But I want to try for to make 728 00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:23,200 Speaker 1: some more specific outlandish predictions, things that will be easy 729 00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:26,000 Speaker 1: for me to say, yes it happened or no, that 730 00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,799 Speaker 1: totally did not happen when it comes time for me 731 00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:34,120 Speaker 1: to review all of my predictions and say whether I 732 00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:36,880 Speaker 1: got it right or wrong. So in our next episode, 733 00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:41,239 Speaker 1: I will lay out my predictions for and then after 734 00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:45,240 Speaker 1: that I will go home for a long winter's nap. So, guys, 735 00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:48,160 Speaker 1: if you have any suggestions for topics I should cover 736 00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:52,520 Speaker 1: in on tech stuff, whether it's a technology, I should 737 00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:55,799 Speaker 1: talk about, a company, a personality. Maybe there's someone you 738 00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,240 Speaker 1: want me to interview or have on as a guest host. 739 00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,120 Speaker 1: You should get in touch with me and let me know. 740 00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:04,120 Speaker 1: The email address for the show is tech Stuff at 741 00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,160 Speaker 1: how stuff works dot com, or you can draw me 742 00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:09,839 Speaker 1: a line on Facebook or Twitter. The handle for both 743 00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:13,000 Speaker 1: of those is text Stuff h s W. We have 744 00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:16,080 Speaker 1: an Instagram account also tech Stuff hs W, if you 745 00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,040 Speaker 1: want to follow along and watch all the pretty pictures 746 00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:24,880 Speaker 1: come in with various hilarious commentary. We also stream live 747 00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:29,080 Speaker 1: every single podcast recording at twitch dot tv slash tech Stuff. 748 00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:32,160 Speaker 1: Just go there. You can find the schedule. I record 749 00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,520 Speaker 1: on Wednesdays and Friday's uh so keep an eye out 750 00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,600 Speaker 1: for that. You can join me there be in the 751 00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,040 Speaker 1: chat room, be part of the HOI POLLOI as we 752 00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:43,799 Speaker 1: all hash out what this technology stuff means you and 753 00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:53,799 Speaker 1: I will talk to you again about really soon for 754 00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,239 Speaker 1: more on this and thousands of other topics because it 755 00:44:56,320 --> 00:45:00,759 Speaker 1: has staff works dot Com wh