WEBVTT - Elizabeth Economy Talks Trump/Xi Relations

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Elizabeth Economy, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University changed our

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<v Speaker 2>dialogue on China where their Michigan graduate school book The

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<v Speaker 2>River Runs Black, and has done the rarest thing. She

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<v Speaker 2>had a triumph in graduate school and then continued forward

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<v Speaker 2>with book after book after a book. She's the only

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<v Speaker 2>one who has read all of James Torregian on g

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<v Speaker 2>as well. Doctor Economy, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>Because of you, I am buried in a Nern book,

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<v Speaker 2>Joel Wulfnow in Philip Saunders China's Quest for Military Supremacy,

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<v Speaker 2>Elizabeth Economy, do you have any idea the makeup and

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<v Speaker 2>the power of president She's China military force.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you're reading the book, then you know

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<v Speaker 1>that she didn't. Ping has made radical changes to Chime's

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<v Speaker 1>military over the past thirteen years since he came into power.

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<v Speaker 1>He's reorganized it. Certainly, he's reshuffled the top Chinese military.

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<v Speaker 1>He's modeled it in many cases on the US sort

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<v Speaker 1>of joint structure, and he's certainly increased and advanced Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>military hardware capabilities. So he's transformed. He's been a transformative

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<v Speaker 1>military leader. That being said, of course, we've also watched

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<v Speaker 1>these purges of the senior military leadership, most recently at

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<v Speaker 1>the Fourth Plenum, and it's very unclear, you know, sort

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<v Speaker 1>of the readiness of the Chinese military, certainly at the top,

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<v Speaker 1>to take any kind of military action moving forward. So

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<v Speaker 1>just the constant roiling of the senior Chinese military leadership,

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<v Speaker 1>I think is a real challenge for the fsigent Ping

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<v Speaker 1>and the party leadership.

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<v Speaker 2>Liz Paul Sweeten brought this up brilliantly this morning. The

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<v Speaker 2>basic idea is we all have a perspective of Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 2>and maybe it's Sean Kaishek and missus Shang Kaishek coming

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<v Speaker 2>to Washington and then on to this and Nixon and

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<v Speaker 2>Kissinger in all that, is this a full crom point

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<v Speaker 2>where Taiwan is actually under threat.

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<v Speaker 1>Look, there's no doubt that Taiwan is under threat, and

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<v Speaker 1>over the past several years, the rhetoric out of Beijing

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<v Speaker 1>and the sort of the military activity around Taiwan, the

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<v Speaker 1>air flights, the sort of crossings in the Taiwan straight

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<v Speaker 1>over the Median Line have only increased. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>what we saw, you know, just over the past few

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<v Speaker 1>weeks was Prime Minister of Japan Takaichi when she said

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<v Speaker 1>that if China were to take military action against Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>Japan could be forced itself to take.

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<v Speaker 3>Some sort of military action.

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<v Speaker 1>That China came out very hot and said Japan acrossed

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<v Speaker 1>the red line and that you know, it started, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the banning, you know, boycotting Japanese sea food, Japanese films,

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<v Speaker 1>et cetera. And so I think there's no doubt, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Si Jinping has said he wants the Chinese military to

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<v Speaker 1>be prepared to take action by twenty twenty seven. That

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't mean that they're going to launch any kind of

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<v Speaker 1>military invasion in twenty twenty seven. He's just put that

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<v Speaker 1>down as a marker for when he would want the

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<v Speaker 1>military to be prepared to take Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 3>So I'll just say I was in tai in mainland China.

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<v Speaker 1>Just came back Saturday, and one of the things that

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<v Speaker 1>our delegation heard was from a retired senior foreign policy

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<v Speaker 1>official that China is not prepared to wait two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>years and that it is prepared to take any form

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<v Speaker 1>of military action. So I think, you know, the heat is,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's only getting hotter for Taiwan at.

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<v Speaker 4>This point, Elizabeth, President Trump and President and She have

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<v Speaker 4>been on again, off again having discussions on trade. What's

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<v Speaker 4>the perception within China of President Trump, this administration and

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<v Speaker 4>maybe the policy as a religiou to China.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, look that there's still a sense within China

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<v Speaker 1>that President Trump can be very unpredictable. They see some

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<v Speaker 1>openings with President Trump, and I think the recent phone

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<v Speaker 1>call that was initiated by Sijin Ping is evidence that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Cijin Ping wanted to send a message about Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly that Taiwan is part of China and doesn't want

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<v Speaker 1>the United States to wade into this you know, Japan.

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<v Speaker 3>Mainland China bruhaha.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think he was also probing to see whether

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump might be willing to do something on Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>especially in the wake of this, you know, US Russia

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<v Speaker 1>negotiation over Ukraine and that initial peace plan that they

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<v Speaker 1>put forth.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, is there something.

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<v Speaker 1>That President Trump and President She could discuss on Taiwan

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<v Speaker 1>when they meet in April. So I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the perception in China is that President Trump is a

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<v Speaker 1>deal maker, that he's willing to put everything on the

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<v Speaker 1>table and to trade things in and out, and so

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's what they're looking to assess. Now, do you.

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<v Speaker 4>Believe from the US perspective that putting things on the

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<v Speaker 4>table would include Taiwan? Do we have any indication in

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<v Speaker 4>President Trump would consider that?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I think there's always concern when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to President Trump's commitment to Taiwan. He's never come out

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<v Speaker 1>and said that Taiwan is a very valuable partner for

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<v Speaker 1>the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, He's been.

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<v Speaker 1>Critical of Taiwan on some front. I think what we

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<v Speaker 1>do know is that Secretary Rubio and Secretary Hegseth have

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<v Speaker 1>been very strong in their support of Taiwan, very strong

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<v Speaker 1>in their commitment to our Indo Pacific allies and partners

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<v Speaker 1>and to sort of a continued US dominant presence in

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<v Speaker 1>the Indo Pacific in the security space. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's unclear. You know, I think we've seen a fracturing

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<v Speaker 1>to some extent of this administration on the Russia issue.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not impossible that we'd have a similar fracturing on

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<v Speaker 1>the China Taiwan China issue.

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<v Speaker 2>Elizabeth economy with US an extended conversation of course with

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<v Speaker 2>the Hoover Institution in Stanford University. Mark you, Petel, Chris

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<v Speaker 2>Whalen coming up, and later we'll be looking at the

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<v Speaker 2>gambling across America, Doctor Economy, the world according to China

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<v Speaker 2>your must read, you say, rewriting the rules of the game,

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<v Speaker 2>myke China one oh one also learned at the altar

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<v Speaker 2>of Elizabeth Economy. Is it presidents have a four year window,

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<v Speaker 2>an eight year window, China has a twenty thirty year

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<v Speaker 2>x axis Rewriting the rules of the game one of

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<v Speaker 2>your chapters here, does President g is he shortened the

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<v Speaker 2>China exit or are they playing the long game each

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<v Speaker 2>and every day?

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<v Speaker 1>He's certainly playing a long game, as you say, each

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<v Speaker 1>and every day. And you know, they continue to invest

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<v Speaker 1>in all the resources and capabilities that they need to

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<v Speaker 1>you know, win the game over to twenty thirty five

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<v Speaker 1>to twenty forty nine. And you see this in all

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<v Speaker 1>the targets and timetables that they put forth, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>in you know, how they're going to achieve global technology dominance.

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<v Speaker 1>But it also plays out across you know, a range

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<v Speaker 1>of areas, whether we're talking about the Arctic or space

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<v Speaker 1>or deep sea bed mining or dedollarizing the global economy.

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<v Speaker 1>They're constantly putting, you know, markers out for the future

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<v Speaker 1>five years, ten years, fifteen years out. What do they

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<v Speaker 1>want to achieve? How are they going to get there?

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<v Speaker 1>They have a long term vision and a long term

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<v Speaker 1>strategy to achieve that vision.

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<v Speaker 3>So this is the long game.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, Sheidin Ping doesn't see himself exiting anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think we can count on at least another

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<v Speaker 1>five year term beginning in twenty twenty seven for cigen Pin,

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<v Speaker 1>and after that, I imagine he'll still want to, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>at least be in the background, you know, guiding the

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<v Speaker 1>next leaders of China.

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<v Speaker 4>So I Jijenping seems secure for the foreseeable future. How

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<v Speaker 4>does the average Chinese person on the ground feel about

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<v Speaker 4>the world. Are they comfortable with China becoming, I guess

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<v Speaker 4>ever more ostracized from the West. Do they want to

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<v Speaker 4>integrate with the West? What's the feeling on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think, look, there are as many different

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<v Speaker 1>opinions within China as there are, you know, in the

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<v Speaker 1>United States, and I think there are people who continue

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<v Speaker 1>to advocate and desire that China be more open politically,

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<v Speaker 1>even more open economically these days to the West. There

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<v Speaker 1>were people who said, you know, she Didn'tping made a

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<v Speaker 1>mistake when he decided to align with Russia as opposed

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<v Speaker 1>to the West after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And then

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<v Speaker 1>there are people that are very comfortable with China's more

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<v Speaker 1>sort of robust posture on the global stage. It's more

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<v Speaker 1>wolf Weyer diplomacy. So it's not one particular view I

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<v Speaker 1>think within China, but I think we see how Sijinping,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, his approach is is you know, the much

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<v Speaker 1>more activist and expansionist and ambitious China and one that's

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<v Speaker 1>not afraid to take on the West and to assert

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese interest, Chinese values and Chinese priorities tetor economy.

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<v Speaker 2>And the time we've got left, I've got to go

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<v Speaker 2>to what you led with, which is this new tension

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<v Speaker 2>between a new government in Japan and with China and folks.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm ignorant of this, Okay, I got it. We're doing

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<v Speaker 2>Can we do some surveillance geography now? Yeah, Google, which

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<v Speaker 2>is seared in the memory of all Americans, and you

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<v Speaker 2>come down southwest, there's a Mia Kayama, Tarama Ishigaki, Taka

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<v Speaker 2>Toni and Paul helped me. Here there's a little piece

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<v Speaker 2>of lends. Sweeny nailed this at Lawrence years ago Yonagooni

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<v Speaker 2>and on a clear day from Yonaguni sometimes you can

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<v Speaker 2>see Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 4>Can you, okay?

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<v Speaker 2>Japan is that close to China? Liz, what is our

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<v Speaker 2>biggest ignorance about the modern Chinese Japanese relationship?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, there are there continue to be tensions between

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<v Speaker 1>China and Japan. There are important trading partners, but yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the distance between the closest point of Japan

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<v Speaker 1>and China is only seventy miles. They continue they have

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<v Speaker 1>their own territorial conflict that over the dah Use in

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<v Speaker 1>Kacku Islands, which Japan administers but China claims, and China

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<v Speaker 1>as assertive as it's been toward Taiwan militarily over the

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<v Speaker 1>past few years, it's been equally assertive an aggressive militarily

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<v Speaker 1>toward Japan around this particular you know, dispute. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think from the perspective of Japan, they're concern for Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan used to be a colony of Japan. Many people

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<v Speaker 1>in Taiwan actually speak Japanese feel close to Japan, so

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<v Speaker 1>they have their own concerns about Taiwan. They have concerns

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<v Speaker 1>about you know, China dominating the you know, Taiwan straight

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<v Speaker 1>and trade routes there that Japan depends on. But they're

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<v Speaker 1>also concerned about their own security. And if you know,

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<v Speaker 1>China takes action against Taiwan is successful, you know, is

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<v Speaker 1>Japan next.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think there are a number of issues.

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<v Speaker 1>Sitting back in the minds of the Japanese when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to Chinese military action against Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 3>That prompted Prime Minister Takaichi's.

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<v Speaker 4>Comment, Elizabeth, how do you think Japan and our other

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<v Speaker 4>allies and that part of the world did they view

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<v Speaker 4>the commitment from the United States these days? Are they

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<v Speaker 4>as confident as maybe they have been in past years

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<v Speaker 4>or is that wavering?

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<v Speaker 1>No? I think, you know that the commitment starts from

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<v Speaker 1>the top, and you know, President Biden was very clear

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<v Speaker 1>on a number of occasions he said that the United

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<v Speaker 1>States would come to the defense of Taiwan if China

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<v Speaker 1>were to, you know, attempt a blockade or a military

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<v Speaker 1>you know, invasion. President Trump has not reiterated that commitment.

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<v Speaker 1>He's gone back to the policy of strategic ambiguity. But

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<v Speaker 1>I think more than that, there's a sense, you know

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<v Speaker 1>that everything was under review at the outset of the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump administration. You know, were they going to continue to

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<v Speaker 1>support the aufue right, the nuclear submarine deal between Australia,

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<v Speaker 1>the UK and the US. There was a lot of uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 1>Ultimately we did support it, but everything seems to be,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, up for grabs. You know, with President Trump again,

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary high Seth, Secretary Rubio have been very firm from

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<v Speaker 1>the minute that the administration took office that there was

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<v Speaker 1>going to be continuity in the US commitment to the

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<v Speaker 1>Indo Pacific. But with President Trump, you know, there there's

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<v Speaker 1>a much higher degree of uncertainty about our commitment to

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<v Speaker 1>our allies and partners than right, you know, not only Democrats,

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<v Speaker 1>but but Republicans in the past.

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<v Speaker 2>Doctor Economy, thank you so much for the generous time

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<v Speaker 2>this morning. Really really appreciated, Elizabeth Economy, therefolks from Hoover

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<v Speaker 2>and from Stanford as well,