1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Brian Curtis 3 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 2: along with Doug Krisner. Join us each day for the 4 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 5 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 2: You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your 6 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: podcasts and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and 7 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app. 8 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 3: Earlier today, shareholders in Tesla voted in favor of CEO 9 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 3: Elon Musk's compensation package. They also voted to move the 10 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 3: company's state of incorporation to Texas from Delaware. However, the 11 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 3: pay vote is only advisory, and it doesn't guarantee Musk 12 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 3: will get his package worth right now mark to market 13 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 3: at around a forty eight point four billion dollars you know. 14 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 3: Back in January, a judge in Delaware nullified that compensation plan. 15 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 3: Tesla to be fair is expected to appeal, and if 16 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 3: the appeal fails, moving Tesla's legal home to Texas, that 17 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 3: would allow the board to revive the pay package in 18 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 3: a new state, potentially with more favorable courts. Brian Well. 19 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 2: Joining us is Dana Hall, Bloomberg News Senior Technology Report. 20 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:19,119 Speaker 2: Her to shed some further light on this. So we 21 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,480 Speaker 2: don't know the actual margin of the wind, but we 22 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 2: didn't have that post on X from Elon Musk saying 23 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 2: that they were passing by a wide margin. What have 24 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 2: we heard from investors on both sides? 25 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, so, you know, the voting has been going on 26 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 1: for quite a while and you saw Tesla do a 27 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 1: very big outreach campaign to retail investors and the big 28 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: wild card was how are the large shareholders going to vote. 29 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: We still don't know the margin of victory, but it 30 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: was obviously pretty big. I mean, Elon Musk was very 31 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: happy at the shareholder meeting today. When he came on 32 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: to stage, he did like a little dance and he said, 33 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: I you know hot, damn, I love you guys, or 34 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: something like that, and you know, he was in a 35 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: very expansive mood. I haven't heard much reaction from shareholders 36 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: so far today. I mean, obviously so some of the 37 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: larger funds, like the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund and Helpers. 38 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: You know, they'd put out statements ahead of the vote 39 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: saying that they were planning to vote against the pay package. 40 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: But you know, the people that were for it were 41 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: for it. And this is you know, this is a 42 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 1: good outcome from us, and it's a strong outcome for 43 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 1: Tesla as they still kind of wrestle with the Delaware decision. 44 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 3: So Dan, as I understand it, Back in twenty eighteen, 45 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 3: he worked out a deal with a board making him 46 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,679 Speaker 3: eligible for these stock options if he was able to 47 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 3: get Tesla to hit certain milestones. He was successful in that, 48 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:45,080 Speaker 3: but in January, a judge in Delaware nullified the plan. 49 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 3: What was the basis for that ruling? Can you remind us? 50 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean, so a shareholder sued Musk. The case 51 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 1: is called Tornetta versus Musk, and argued that the board 52 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: was rife with conflicts of interest and that you know, 53 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 1: it wasn't really a fair negotiation. I mean that Musk 54 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 1: was basically pressuring the board to give him this package, 55 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: and then there was just a lot of problems with 56 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: the way that the package was disclosed. And so the 57 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: judge kind of came out with this two hundred page 58 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: ruling that really shocked everybody back in January and really 59 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: infuriated Musk. He immediately talked about, you know, it's time 60 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,519 Speaker 1: to leave Delaware as our corporate home. And so this 61 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: shareholder meeting was like a reaction to that, like, we're 62 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,679 Speaker 1: going to revote on the pay package and move to Texas. 63 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,119 Speaker 1: And you know, I think that Tesla's hope is that 64 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: by re ratifying the same pay package from twenty eighteen, 65 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: that they are answering a lot of the concerns that 66 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: the judge had. They're saying, look, investors are still for 67 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: this plan. They fully know what they're getting into. We 68 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: have a lot more disclosures. Our proxy statement even links 69 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: to your two hundred page opinion. So it's their effort 70 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: to kind of answer her concerns. 71 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 2: This really is a very interesting stretch from twenty eighteen 72 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 2: ton Now. I mean, if you ask a lot of 73 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 2: people the narrative on Tesla's stock as well, it's down 74 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 2: more than fifty percent. You know, it is up over 75 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 2: four hundred dollars at one point. Now it's at one 76 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 2: eighty two. But they forget that back in twenty eighteen, 77 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 2: when he signed on to this package and it was 78 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 2: approved by seventy three percent of the vote, the stock 79 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 2: was on a split adjusted basis around twenty four dollars, 80 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 2: and now at one eighty two, that's a massive that's 81 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 2: a massive move. So this is really kind of like 82 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 2: pure capitalism at work, right, Oh yeah. 83 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: One hundred percent. I mean, you know, you can look 84 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: at the pay package and say, Elon Musk did what 85 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:42,640 Speaker 1: the comp plan kind of asked to do. He met 86 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: these crazy, big, very ambitious, very aggressive targets. He deserves 87 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 1: to be paid and you know, not only did he 88 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 1: enrich himself, but he enriched lesions of shareholders, both big 89 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,720 Speaker 1: and small, and that it's crazy enough to reward him 90 00:04:56,760 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 1: for doing that. On the flip side, the intention of 91 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: the twenty eighteen pay package was to incentivize Musk to 92 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 1: stay focused on Tesla, and even though he did meet 93 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 1: all the milestones, he then sold his Tesla shares to 94 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: buy Twitter, which he renamed X and he has started 95 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:16,680 Speaker 1: yet another X, yet another company known as X dot Ai. 96 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 1: So he's still very interested in many, many, many other things. 97 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: And so what I'm most curious about is, you know, 98 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 1: beyond the legal wrangling around the current paid package, like, 99 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 1: at what point does the Tesla board come back and 100 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 1: like potentially incentivize him again, Like is he going to 101 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 1: get a new pay package going forward? 102 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 3: Let's talk about the approval of Musk's move, moving the 103 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 3: headquarters from Texas or to Texas, I should say, from Delaware. 104 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 3: Is this all about the strategy to try to get 105 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 3: the pay package the ruling on the pay package overturned. 106 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:56,799 Speaker 3: Where is there something that we have to understand about 107 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 3: his thinking and the way he views doing business in 108 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 3: Delaware versus Texas. 109 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, so Tesla's corporate headquarters is already in Texas. 110 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 1: That move happened in late twenty twenty one, and you know, 111 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,280 Speaker 1: Musk lives in Texas. A lot of executives are now 112 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: based there. They have a big workforce there. And I 113 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: think that, you know, Musk's frustration with Delaware Chancery Court, 114 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: which kind of came to a head over you know, 115 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 1: not just the long trial over his compensation plan, but 116 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 1: also a trial over Tesla's acquisition of Solar City. Like 117 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 1: he just is done. He would rather be in Texas, 118 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: which I think has you know, a very much newer 119 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: you know, I mean, corporate law is not as well 120 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: established in Texas. But I think that you know, he's 121 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: Musk is just ready to kind of have everything be 122 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: in the same state. And yeah, going forward, any litigation 123 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 1: that he would face would not be subject to Delaware 124 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,119 Speaker 1: Chancery court. That's why in the past like twenty four hours, 125 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,720 Speaker 1: you've seen a lot of lawsuits filed in Delaware court 126 00:06:55,720 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 1: because Tesla could announce that they've successfully, you know, have 127 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 1: moved their legal jurisdiction to Texas like any day now. 128 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: I mean, it could be, it could happen very fast 129 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:06,239 Speaker 1: once there's a legal filing. 130 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 2: Danna, we had to pop in the stock today. But 131 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 2: I'm curious about those who wanted to vote against this 132 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 2: and big, huge pension funds like Calsters and CalPERS. Is 133 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 2: there any thinking or were there any threats from them 134 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 2: that they might you know, divest to a certain degree. 135 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: No, I mean that is certainly one avenue. I mean 136 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: you have to sort of ask yourself if you're that 137 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: unhappy with the company, like why are you still an investor? 138 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 1: But I think that some investors, you know, would feel 139 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 1: like shareholder activism is the way to go, and they 140 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: try to try to engage with the company internally. And obviously, 141 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 1: you know, Musk and board chair Robin Denholm had a 142 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: lot of meetings with big institutional investors over the past 143 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: couple of weeks. I have not heard anything from any 144 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: of the funds that said that they were no on 145 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: pay about divestment. 146 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 3: Could there be more lawsuits? Do you think? 147 00:07:58,840 --> 00:07:59,119 Speaker 2: Oh? 148 00:07:59,280 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: Absolutely? 149 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 2: Yeah? 150 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 4: Always. 151 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 1: I mean someone could too to stop the moved Texas 152 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 1: once they're in Texas. Like, I mean, yeah, there there 153 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: there there's always a lot of litigation around things like this. 154 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 2: I'm kind of curious about this too. I know it's 155 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 2: counterfactual or speculation whatever, but what might Elon Musk have 156 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: done if he lost this vote? 157 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: I think he would have been upset. It would have 158 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: been kind of like a stinging rebuke of both the 159 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,440 Speaker 1: legal strategy and of his tenure as the CEO. But 160 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: you know, I mean he would have he would have 161 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: probably continue. I mean, I don't think it would have changed, 162 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: you know, it would have wouldn't have changed, you know, 163 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: I don't know if he would have. I don't think 164 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 1: he would have quit necessarily. I mean, he still owns 165 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: thirteen percent of the company. 166 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 3: Very quickly, last question, this new stock exchange that may 167 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 3: be established in Dallas. Do you think he will list 168 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 3: Tesla and some of his other companies on that change? 169 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, that I do not know. I mean I would 170 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: imagine that the exchange would have to get up and 171 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 1: running for a bit. 172 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 3: First, All right, we'll leave it there. 173 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 2: Ran I was just going to say, Don, was the 174 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 2: workout coming on this program? Get questions from all over 175 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 2: the place, but good questions and good answers. Donna, thank 176 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,239 Speaker 2: you very much. Dana Holt Bloomberg need Who's senior technology 177 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 2: report him. We wanted to take a closer look at markets, 178 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,679 Speaker 2: and we're joined by Villain Sells, a global CIO at 179 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 2: HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth with us here in 180 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 2: our studios in Hong Kong. Villain, thanks very much for 181 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 2: coming in. So we are starting to kind of get 182 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 2: into the area again about worrying about growth scares. We 183 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 2: had jobless claims have another bounce in the US and 184 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 2: we've seen a little bit of a softening of the data. 185 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 2: Is it rational to be worried about growth or should 186 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 2: we just include it in let's say, a group of 187 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 2: scenarios that are possible and that should be discounted. 188 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 5: Well in our discussion with our clients. It's remarkable that 189 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 5: you know, in the past six months there is a 190 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 5: complete swing. You know, we were talking about we're asking 191 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 5: about the risk of a recession six twelve months ago. 192 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:22,959 Speaker 5: This is no longer the case. And I agree with them, 193 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 5: and I agree with Yellen on this as well. You know, 194 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 5: data are slowing a little bit, but from a very 195 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 5: strong position, you know, So that basically means that, you know, 196 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 5: it gives the FED the opportunity to to to cut 197 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 5: in September. Interview. So I think this is actually a 198 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 5: good thing that we are coming from that very strong 199 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 5: to a milder economic growth, and in the rest of 200 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 5: the world we're actually seeing a slight acceleration. So we're 201 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 5: broadening out our exposure, adding Europe and Asia to the US, 202 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 5: but continuing also to be comfortable with the US stop. 203 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:58,959 Speaker 3: So vellamy, You do believe that US rates then are 204 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 3: restrictive right now, and it would be a prudent thing 205 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 3: for the Fed to begin cutting a SAP, I would imagine, right. 206 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 3: So yeah, so. 207 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 5: Indeed cutting in September. Even if they cut in September, 208 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 5: obviously those raids will remain restricted. The real rate is 209 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:16,679 Speaker 5: at a very elevated level, and it has been on 210 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 5: that plateau for quite a long time. You know, they 211 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 5: have excluded more or less rate hikes. The dots did 212 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 5: not include anybody who was looking for a rate hikes, 213 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 5: So that's a good signal, and obviously that also allows 214 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 5: people to go into bonds. So one of the biggest 215 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 5: flows that we are seeing is people locking in those 216 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 5: bond yields with that you know, comforting message from the Fed. 217 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 2: Do you see it as a possibility though, that if 218 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 2: growth does slow, maybe not all the way to recession, 219 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 2: but if it does slow measurably, that that could actually 220 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 2: lead to a further big balance in the megacaps. 221 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 5: So to the extent that indeed those are growth style stocks, 222 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 5: you know, which are interest rate sensitive, Indeed, that could 223 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 5: you know, help the growth style companies. You know, Our 224 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 5: strategy for the moment is actually to broaden it out, 225 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 5: not to give up on the MACT seven because their 226 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 5: earnings growth is solid. But when you look at earnings 227 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 5: momentum over the next number of quarters, where the acceleration 228 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 5: is in earnings growth is in other sectors those obviously 229 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 5: are cheaper as well. So we broaden out our exposure 230 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 5: in the equity market built from a geographical perspective, but 231 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 5: also within the US across other sectors, so for example, 232 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 5: industrials and financials. 233 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 3: I'm wondering as I'm listening to you, thinking about maybe 234 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 3: slower growth in the US. We know that growth in 235 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,320 Speaker 3: Europe has been weak for some time. The ECB is 236 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 3: now leaning into that by delivering a bit of accommodation. Laguard, yes, 237 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 3: putting some caveats in as she cuts interest rates, you know, 238 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,559 Speaker 3: data dependency. We get that. But I'm wondering whether or 239 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 3: not growth in Europe may pick up at a rate 240 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 3: that at some point could rival, at least rival what 241 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:57,359 Speaker 3: we're seeing in the US is that misguided. 242 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 5: It's picking up. We are coming out of free session, 243 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 5: we have come out of recession, and so that is, 244 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 5: you know, giving that momentum, and that I think the 245 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 5: opportunity or the excuse if you want to call it 246 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 5: that for people to you know, start to think about, 247 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 5: you know that that very big valuation differential between the 248 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 5: US and Europe, and that you know, can be unlocked 249 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 5: by that cyclical momentum. Indeed, when you look at the 250 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 5: growth forecast. But that's more sort of for twenty twenty five, 251 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 5: the growth rates you know, for Europe, the UK and 252 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 5: the US shouldn't be too far apart, where whereas obviously 253 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 5: for twenty twenty four, the US is much much superior. 254 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 5: But indeed you could have that narrowing of that gap. 255 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 2: So I'm personally of the view that we are going 256 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:44,559 Speaker 2: to get a little bit of a growth scare here. 257 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:46,679 Speaker 2: People are going to be concerned about it, whether or 258 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 2: not least a recession. That's way down the road. But 259 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,959 Speaker 2: then I know, in your overways the US and Japan, 260 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 2: I think everybody can understand that. But emerging market Asia, now, 261 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 2: if you get a US slowdown, what appens to emerging 262 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 2: market Asia? 263 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 5: Well, emerging Marketsia for US, you know, there are well 264 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 5: within each that there are three countries that were overweted 265 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 5: to Japan. It's India and South Korea. So, you know, India, 266 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 5: we do think, you know that people shouldn't exaggerate, you know, 267 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 5: the election news. I do think that you can get 268 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 5: continued you know, reforms, especially on the subject of you know, 269 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 5: technology and advanced manufacturing. Obviously there is you know, very 270 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 5: you know, positive longer term growth look out look in 271 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 5: India as well, So I think that market will rebound 272 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 5: and so we want to be there. South Korea is 273 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 5: more because of the semiconductor you know, pick up as well. 274 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 5: So we are selective within the region, but we're actively 275 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 5: diversifying as we are still neutral on mainland China and 276 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 5: Hong Kong, because we don't think that the rally that 277 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 5: you've seen a number of weeks ago will extend as 278 00:14:53,880 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 5: long as you don't have an acceleration in economic growth 279 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 5: or in earnings. So we're doing that active diversification, being selective. 280 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 5: But yeah, because of India and South Korea and then Japan, 281 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 5: we have the overweight here as well. 282 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 3: What would it take for you to change your mind 283 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 3: on China? And are you prepared to do that in 284 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 3: the event that the government comes to some type of 285 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 3: realization that more stimulus is required. Are you able to 286 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 3: pivot quickly and maybe to rethink your view on China? 287 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 5: Sure, I mean we reconsider it every month at least 288 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 5: in our in our investment committees. But what we really 289 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 5: need is that, you know, the earnings acceleration and the 290 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 5: GDP acceleration. You know, certainly foreigners would be looking for 291 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 5: that won't have necessarily, you know, won't won't necessarily be 292 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 5: scared of missing the first five or ten percent of 293 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 5: the rally. They want to wait and see, to see 294 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 5: the evidence in the hard data, you know, So that's 295 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 5: what they're waiting for. The Q one earnings results from 296 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 5: from China. We're somewhat disappointing, I think, you know here 297 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 5: in China as well, the property package was probably a 298 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 5: little bit lower than what in my that was expecting. So, 299 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 5: you know, people not you know, jumping to conclusions or 300 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 5: you know, giving the market the benefit of the data. 301 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 5: They want to see the numbers. But then indeed there 302 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 5: are there would be in fills once you see them, 303 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 5: because obviously that market is extremely cheap, people are extremely underweight, 304 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 5: you know, so then indeed we would need to act. 305 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 2: So we've seen obviously a lot of growth in AI 306 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 2: related stock buying in the United States in particular, So 307 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 2: I think that's one of the most important trends running 308 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:33,640 Speaker 2: through the market. People very concerned about, you know, when 309 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:35,920 Speaker 2: does it break, when does it slow down? What do 310 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 2: you look at to learn that? I mean, what's the 311 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 2: key for that? 312 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, So so what we think is, you know, so 313 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 5: again this is one of the objectives of broadening, right, 314 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 5: and so that people are not only just investing in 315 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 5: the max seven and in their trade, you know, because 316 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 5: even though we are positive on that and you know, 317 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 5: the IMF things that we're going to have up to 318 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 5: zero points eight percent boost to global GDP and the 319 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 5: medium term because of that, which is very considerable. You know, 320 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 5: it's just wise to spread out, you know, especially as 321 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 5: that as that valuation differential gives the opportunities elsewhere. But 322 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 5: there are related trains that one can do. Even utilities, 323 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 5: for example, have been boosted by that energy demount, that would. 324 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 2: Be absolutely Yeah, it's really quite an interesting phenomenon that 325 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 2: we've seen that. All right, Villain, thanks very much for 326 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 2: joining us and for coming into our studios with this. 327 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 2: Always a pleasure of Villain Cells, Global CIO at HSBC 328 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 2: Global Private Banking and Wealth. The Bank of Japan is 329 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 2: holding a two day meeting. It will wrap up that 330 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 2: meeting later this morning. Joining us now for some discussion 331 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:50,120 Speaker 2: is Tarro Kimura, senior Japan Economists for Bloomberg Economics. Tarrow, 332 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,239 Speaker 2: thank you for joining us. Bloomberg Economics is saying this 333 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:58,120 Speaker 2: will be a consequential meeting. Might we see a reduction 334 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,199 Speaker 2: in bond buying? Right? 335 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 4: I think it's really likely that the BOG will announce 336 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 4: the cutting its JGB purchases, which is kind of a 337 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 4: very momentous pivot from its unconventional Manetali policy, particularly after 338 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:19,119 Speaker 4: it's introduced its introduced quantitative qualitative easing back in tow 339 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 4: seas and thirteen. That said, I don't think the announcement 340 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 4: won't spook the bond market because I expect the BOJ 341 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 4: to announce very graudial and modest reduction to JGB hills 342 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 4: based on the governor with us a previous comment that 343 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:42,120 Speaker 4: he doesn't want to use bond buyings as active policy too. 344 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:44,439 Speaker 4: So basically I think he doesn't want to spook the 345 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 4: market by QTS. But it's another big step for the 346 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:50,880 Speaker 4: buj's normalization to its policy. 347 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 3: You no doubt about that. And I'm looking on the 348 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 3: Bloomberg terminal. I guess the yield right now and the 349 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 3: tenure JGB is just around ninety five basis points. I 350 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 3: would imagine that the banks in Japan are celebrating this 351 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 3: type of action, that the BOJ is finally moving to 352 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 3: widen the spread a little bit between the policy rate 353 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 3: and you know, let's say a ten year yield, right right. 354 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 4: Absolutely, So one of the backdrop, I expect the BOJ 355 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 4: will to the cut in JGB pursas as soon as 356 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 4: this meeting is. Basically, the Marcus doesn't want the BOJA 357 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 4: intervene to the long areas anymore. So, absolutely it will 358 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,720 Speaker 4: welcome and the banks and financial institutions wants higher JGB 359 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 4: els that push back the bojs r QT process make 360 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 4: it comfortable for the central back. 361 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 2: I know it from a few comments. There are some 362 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 2: fears that the BOJ still drags its feet a little 363 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,640 Speaker 2: and doesn't make a move on either interest rates or 364 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 2: on the bond buying, and I'm wondering if they If 365 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 2: that's the case, if that's what happens, could the end 366 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,520 Speaker 2: reach the one sixty level to the week side. 367 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 4: I think so if the BOJ, which isn't my baseline, 368 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 4: and I don't think it will happen, but if the 369 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 4: BOJ hold policy on both on rates and JGB purchases, 370 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 4: it's gonna like you know, I think it's a it's 371 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 4: a good opportunity for yen bears to cease on the 372 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 4: opportunity to add more selling pressure to the end and 373 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 4: probably it will break one sixty again. That said, I 374 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 4: think the view from that the Bank of Japan may 375 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 4: hold of is coming from the fact that the Japan's 376 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 4: Japan's economy isn't that strong under the state of school. 377 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:41,360 Speaker 4: But my view is the BOJ is moving forward looking 378 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:46,479 Speaker 4: with this forward looking assessment that the higher waste growth 379 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 4: agreed by annual spring wage negotiation will feed into stronger 380 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 4: service prices. So that's why I think it's July hike 381 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 4: and today's QT announcement is already in the pipeline. 382 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 3: So what do we need to know? What do we 383 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 3: need to understand about the inflation story in Japan? You 384 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 3: were talking a moment ago about a weekend and that 385 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 3: tends to import inflationary pressures into an economy. You mentioned 386 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 3: the wage negotiations too, so we're seeing finally after seeming 387 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 3: decades long stagnation in wages, I mean, things are starting 388 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 3: to pick up. What do we know about underlying inflation 389 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 3: in Japan at the moment? 390 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 4: So the big waste negotiation will absolutely fit into higher 391 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:33,240 Speaker 4: waste growth and higher service prices, which we haven't seen 392 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 4: seen it in macro data because which the agreement was 393 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 4: just made, and I think it's going to be fit 394 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 4: into a May and June data that will be due 395 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 4: from July or August whatsoever. But it's we can expect 396 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 4: that to happen. And also I would say the higher 397 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,399 Speaker 4: energy prices not because of the kind of demand or whatsoever. 398 00:21:55,480 --> 00:22:01,360 Speaker 4: But because of the subsidy cut, will the course CPI 399 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 4: going on this year and the CPI will comfortably over 400 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:11,639 Speaker 4: over boja's two percent target. That will give leeway for 401 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,920 Speaker 4: the Bank of Japan to do policy normalize the instation, 402 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 4: including hiking rates and QT. 403 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, you draw some attention to normalization and the fact 404 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 2: that you know, sometimes the market wants normalization, sometimes it 405 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,400 Speaker 2: wants the right policy for what's happening in the economy. 406 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 2: So for instance, if the BOJ normalizes and raises interest 407 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 2: rates into an economy that is troubled, is not really growing, 408 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 2: then the market could react badly. But it seems like 409 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:44,199 Speaker 2: what you're saying is the moves are there, or the 410 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 2: conditions are there for things to improve going forward, and 411 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 2: the BOJA probably will act, just not in a huge way. 412 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:54,120 Speaker 4: Right, So my expectation is BOJA will raise race up 413 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 4: to zero point five by October, So it's going to 414 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 4: be forty basis points from current Zerer point? Why one 415 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 4: a policy target upper bound? I don't think zero point 416 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,360 Speaker 4: four like forty basis point great hike won't wreck k havok 417 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 4: to Japan's economy because it's it's it's an aging economy, 418 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 4: so the size of the housing construction or housing purchases 419 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,919 Speaker 4: is just three percent in the whole economy. And also 420 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,439 Speaker 4: the balance sheet of Japanese corporates are getting healthy, so 421 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:33,199 Speaker 4: the limited amount increase in rates increase won't rekabook on 422 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 4: their profits as well. 423 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us, Tara Kimura, Senior 424 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 2: Japan Economists at Bloomberg Economics. 425 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 3: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you 426 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 3: the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 427 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,400 Speaker 3: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 428 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 3: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 429 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 3: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen 430 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 3: always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg 431 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:04,120 Speaker 3: Business App.