WEBVTT - Real Estate Markets, Great Migration, Rich Dad Poor Dad Advisor | Ken McElroy 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:16.200 Hello everyone, and welcome to another episode of the Market 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:18.840 Disruptor Show. And today I am sitting down with my 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:22.480 good friend Ken McIlroy. He is a real estate investor, 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:25.440 very successful one with that. He is a real estate 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:28.760 advisor for the Rich Dad Company um MC Companies. He 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:32.000 speaks a lot about real estate on his own YouTube channel. 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:33.879 You should watch him there. He's the one that gave 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:36.080 him my cool new touch screen TV you've been seeing 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:38.080 you with. Thank you again for them so that can 0:00:38.240 --> 0:00:40.279 and anyway, welcome to the channels. Pleasure to sit down 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:42.400 with you today. Thank you, Thank you, Mark. It's been great. 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:46.280 I'm enjoying everything and joining this time and really glad 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:50.000 to be on your channel. Awesome, awesome. Well um yeah, man, 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:52.320 you're you're You're so accomplished and I'd love just sitting 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:54.760 down and just learning whatever I can from you. And 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:56.560 so today is gonna be a big treat for everybody 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:58.400 because I know they love my real estate content, but 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:00.720 they're really gonna like yours, and so I'm happy to 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:02.480 do that. But maybe just kind of fill us in 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:04.920 real quick on maybe which has kind of been working 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:08.200 on or what you're doing right now? Sure? Sure, Well, 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:10.600 so you know, like a lot of us. I started 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:14.080 investing years ago, and my first investment was using my 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:16.240 own cash. You know, I bought a two bit in 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:18.680 two Bath that cash flowed. So I've been a cash 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:22.160 blow guy in my whole life. And um and then uh, 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:24.120 you know, started doing a lot of the small single 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:27.160 families and and do plexus and stuff. And then for 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:31.200 about the last fifteen plus years, I've been doing multifamily exclusively. 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:36.040 We own about ten thousand apartments were we build them, 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:42.560 we manage them, we're the general contractor. We're in Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona, Nevada, 0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:48.160 Oregon and very active, you know, trying to buy multi 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:52.640 family and build multi family. We have about um plus 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:56.040 see five projects, so we have about FIFTUD units in 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:58.880 the works on the construction side, and you know, we're 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:01.760 really busy, and we're you know, obviously part of why 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:04.000 I do what I do and you do what you 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:05.480 do is that we're trying to figure out what to 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:07.400 do next. You know, like, you know, how do you 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:10.440 understand what's happening with all this crazy stuff with the 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:13.680 evictions and the more the moratoriums on the loans and 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:16.240 and and then the commercial side is just you know, 0:02:16.320 --> 0:02:19.119 nobody really is talking a lot about that. But that's 0:02:19.160 --> 0:02:21.360 a super scary area as well when it comes to 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:25.160 office and malls and retail and so, um, you know, 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:27.920 there's a lot happening right now and and um so 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:31.240 I just really appreciate the content you're putting out and 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:33.440 um you know, we're just trying to stay ahead of 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:35.800 everything with you know, not only my money, but my 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:38.840 investors money. You know. Hey, just a real quick interruption 0:02:38.880 --> 0:02:40.920 to let you know that this video is brought to 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:43.480 you ad free by block Fire. Now they're giving you 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:46.359 the ability to holdle your bitcoin and your crypto as 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:48.440 it goes up in value, and at the same time 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:51.120 you can earn high yielding interest on it, so you 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.080 can basically hold it for all the upside potential and 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:55.960 then you can make cash flow off of it at 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:59.959 the exact same time. Now, opening accounts super fast, super simple. 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.920 And they've offered to give me up the two dollars 0:03:02.960 --> 0:03:04.760 for every sign up, but I told them, you know what, 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:07.079 let's give it back to you. So you can now 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:09.800 go and you can get the two fifty dollars whenever 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:11.519 you set up your account, and always to do is 0:03:11.560 --> 0:03:14.200 just check the link in the description for details. Set 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:16.520 up an account super quick and easy and turn up 0:03:16.560 --> 0:03:18.960 to two d and fifty dollars brought to you by 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:22.520 block Fire, so check them out. Yeah. So, um, you're 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:25.200 kind of all over the country and you've been across 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:27.800 all different types of properties, and I think that's the 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:30.000 first point that I would really like to drive home 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:33.639 for people. So for everybody listening, just real quick, UM, 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:35.440 I got a lot of stuff that we're gonna dig drough. 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:38.400 So we're gonna talk about the different types of real estate, 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:41.240 whether you want to own a home, invest in real estate, 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:43.400 or different types of real estate to invest in. We're 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:45.840 gonna talk about different ways you can do that, whether 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:48.240 you own it directly or maybe through other groups. UM. 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:51.480 We're gonna talk about what we expect to happen this year, UM, 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:53.160 Ken and I might be seeing things a little differently, 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:55.240 so we're gonna talk about that, um. And then we're 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:58.080 gonna talk about, um some big news pieces that are 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.400 driving real estate this week, and then where we think 0:04:00.480 --> 0:04:03.360 that's going. So lots of cover here, but can So 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:05.640 you've you kind of worked your way up, as you said, 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:08.360 with your own money. UM, and now you're doing doing 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:11.560 the bigger deals, and you mentioned that you're across several states, 0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:14.520 So I would say it sounds like, you know, you're 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:17.760 kind of watching and studying the market from a big level, right, 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:21.520 trying to find where the best opportunities are. Y. Um, 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.320 that I guess that's right. So um, I guess the 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:26.960 first thing that I think that we would should probably discuss, 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:30.040 and that most people don't seem to grasp, is they say, 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:33.680 is the real estate market going to crash? And I 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:35.760 would typically say that there is no such thing as 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:39.440 the market. Right, There's thousands of markets and they all 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:41.520 move independently. Would you agree with that? And if so, 0:04:41.600 --> 0:04:44.760 maybe I would absolutely Mark. Yeah. I mean people, you know, 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:48.720 the the journalists separate like general, I mean, every everything 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:51.960 aggregates up, you know to one thing. You know, but 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:56.000 you know, I just if you go back historically, you 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:58.400 just take a look at what happened to Detroit as 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:01.120 an example, Detroit is the grating apple of a real 0:05:01.200 --> 0:05:05.440 estate market that crash, you know, uh years ago. And 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:08.360 you know, while the a lot of the other markets 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:12.599 have boomed in Boston, you know, for various reasons, and uh, 0:05:12.640 --> 0:05:17.640 you know, the real estate is very local driven right, yeah, 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:21.160 and so by area, but also by type, whether that's 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:25.640 a house or a duplex, a multi family, a commercial space, etcetera. So, um, yeah, 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:27.359 I think that's the first thing. Is I just like 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:31.479 to talk about that now. Um. We both recently have 0:05:31.560 --> 0:05:34.480 done videos kind of talking about the forecast for this year, 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:36.960 and of course, uh, neither of us have a crystal ball. 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:39.400 If we did, it would sure make things easier, but 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:42.120 of course we don't. Um. In your video, you talked 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:45.920 about how inventory has been super tight, but that you 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:49.680 expect inventory to start coming back online this year. Maybe 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:55.000 walk us through kind of yeah, So yeah, basically as 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:57.800 we all know, I mean, inventory is a historical lows, 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:01.080 forty year lows, and and I think that you know, 0:06:01.200 --> 0:06:04.280 last I looked, you know, there's like a million houses available. 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:08.280 I read somewhere there's like, you know, five realtors for 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:11.400 every house or something crazy, you know. So you know, 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:14.479 and what's normal as as we all know, if you 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:19.120 just use historical numbers as six months supply, and you know, 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:25.440 we're basically under three, so somewhere between two and three 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:29.000 depending on the market, very undersupplied, and then all the 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:35.640 other people or having to you know, where near the 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:38.240 where they were before, so they can move an hour, 0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:41.120 two hours, three hours away. And so we have all 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:44.000 these migration patterns which I think probably will probably touch on. 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:46.799 So all that stuff is happening at the same time. 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:51.760 And then m you have cookering down and they have 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:54.719 equity in their home and they're stick there's their standput 0:06:54.839 --> 0:06:57.680 and um and and these are people that would have 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:01.160 normally I think, listed their homes, you know, I mean, 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:03.800 there's a lot of things that that aren't happening normally 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:07.839 and and so UM, I do believe that once the 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:11.240 vaccine gets rolled out and things, you know, come back 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:15.119 to whatever, you know, whatever the new normal is, then UM, 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:18.360 I think people are gonna um you know, harvest some 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:22.080 of the cash from their homes. With these low interest rates, 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:24.160 they're gonna you know, they're gonna list. And then I 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:28.120 also think that we're gonna have the people. Last I looked, 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.160 we had somewhere in between three and four million people 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:34.560 that were delinquent um. And then we have this massive 0:07:34.640 --> 0:07:39.040 rental eviction issue that um, you know, will create a 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:41.000 lot of disruption as well. So I think all of 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:45.320 those things are going to add more supply. Um, you know, 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:48.080 how much you know, who knows and by what market. 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:50.360 To your point earlier, you know, there are going to 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:53.360 be some markets like California that will be in trouble, 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:56.360 but there will be other markets that have done really, 0:07:56.400 --> 0:08:00.000 really wild that won't be. So you know, it's gonna 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.040 to be state by state, city by city, county by county. 0:08:03.440 --> 0:08:06.160 But yes, there's gonna be I believe a lot of 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:10.080 a lot of inventory that's gonna hit the markets. Uh, 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.559 I predicted in the in the fourth quarter. Yeah. To 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:15.840 to add on to your point, I would say that 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:18.360 we did see when the pandemic first broke out last 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:21.280 year in March um that we saw him I believe, 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:22.520 and you can correct me if I'm wrong, but I 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:25.960 believe we saw more inventory pulled off the market than 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:30.320 like any time in history. Yes, that's exactly my point. Yeah, yeah, 0:08:30.400 --> 0:08:32.920 and I don't believe. I mean, you can't blame those people. 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:35.160 They're like, Okay, we may or may to have work. 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:37.719 You know, our employers may or may not survive. We 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:40.160 have we've you know, if you look at equity in 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:42.880 people's homes, they've they've done pretty well. And that's actually 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:46.439 that's actually the best thing that's happened is people have 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:49.520 you know, call it this this bank account. They don't 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:51.920 get to get it unless they sell it or refin dance. 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:55.240 But you know it's sitting there. And that actually is 0:08:55.440 --> 0:08:57.600 way better than what happened in two thousand and eight 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.000 when I went through, you know, a very different correct 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:03.880 should So I think that's a good thing and and 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:07.480 that actually will I believe will really help. But people, 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:09.520 you imagine if you've got a bunch of equity in 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:13.120 your house, you know, and you don't know where you're 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:16.319 gonna work. As an example, I don't know that you're 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:19.480 going to lift your house. Uh you know, because now 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:22.360 you're you're gonna harvest it, you're gonna pay capital game tax, 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:23.800 and you know you have to figure out where to 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:27.600 going next. Right, Yeah, everything in life comes down to certainty. 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:29.680 So the more certain you are with your life, the 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:32.240 longer out you can plan, and the less uncertain you 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:34.679 are than the less you can plan. So extreme examples 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:37.040 of that would be if I was in a country 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:39.280 like Syria that's being bombed right now and I'm literally 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:42.160 fleeing for my life with my family. The last thing 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:44.400 I'm trying to do is like worry about saving money 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:48.199 from my future, Like my future is so uncertain, that's 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.600 the last thing I'm worried about. And so, Um, to 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:52.560 your point, there was a lot of uncertainty that was 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:55.240 going on for any number of reasons. I'm scared to 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:56.760 go out of my house. I don't want other people 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:58.400 to come in my house. I don't know what the 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:01.079 future and all these things, and so people decided to 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:03.600 do that. But I guess to add on to your point, Um, 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:05.920 we know that people wanted to sell their house before 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.559 the pandemic and it came off the market and so 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:11.720 there so it's reasonable to expect that once this gets cleared, 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:16.000 that inventory will go back onto the market. Now, one 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:18.280 theme that for everyone listening, one thing that you're gonna 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:21.320 hear over and over and over is that it's all 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:24.960 about supply and demand, and so everything that we're talking 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:28.640 about is affecting supply and demand at some point. Um. 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:31.280 But um, one thing that I hear when I talk 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:33.040 about real estate, and you can let me know if 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:34.360 you hear the same thing, and I'm sure you do. 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:39.120 But everybody is expecting this this massive amount of unemployment 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:45.000 and specifically the record amount of forbearances and rent moratoriums. 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:47.280 They are all expecting that to just come onto the 0:10:47.320 --> 0:10:50.040 market and just crash it. And I think you're kind 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:54.839 of expecting maybe the same thing. So it's interesting. It's 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:59.200 going to depend on There's a lot of factors that 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:02.760 have to do with that. Obviously. I think most people, 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:05.960 if you look at the if somebody's in their home, 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:08.959 they're gonna hold on and they're gonna do whatever they 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:11.600 have to do. And so they're all gonna trickle out 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:14.640 based on what happens. And there's a lot of people 0:11:15.440 --> 0:11:18.520 that you know, believe that some of the forbearance is 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:20.200 just gonna be thrown onto the end of the loan 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:24.559 um and uh, but you know, that's a very small percentage, 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:27.240 as you know, you know, and and so there's a 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.520 lot of mortgages out there that are non government mortgages, 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:33.920 and and so while there's a you know, the forbearance 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:37.560 is certainly in place right now, Um, you know, there's 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:39.680 a lot of private lending, a lot of private money 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:42.120 out there, you know, kind of sitting back on the 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:46.600 sidelines and trying to figure out what to do next. So, um, 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:49.199 so I don't know if it's all going to come, 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:52.880 but I do think. You know, obviously Biden kicked everything 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:56.000 down the road till till June, you know, and so 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.600 when I originally did that video, as you know, that 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:00.920 was prior to him even kicking it down the road 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:04.880 to June. So, uh, you know, I was interesting. As 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:08.480 you know, I was with George Gammon last weekend up 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:11.520 in Park City, and you know, we got as a 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.199 big discussion as as you know we all do when 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.800 we get together, trying to tap into everybody's resources, and 0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:21.079 George said, you know, personal incomes were way up, you know, 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:24.439 during all of this, during this whole pandemic, personal incomes 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:28.080 are way up, and you gotta wonder why, Like you know, 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:31.240 like with all this unemployment, and you know, all these 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:33.640 businesses that are going out and and and people are 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:35.400 going to part time and all that kind of stuff. 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.000 You know, that's all been propped up by the government. 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.880 And uh, there's no doubt around that. And so when 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:43.880 when the when the new checks came out and uh, 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:46.439 you know, all those things happen. You know that, believe 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:48.960 it or not. As a landlord, that actually was good 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:51.360 because those people take that money they pay their rent. 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:55.720 Uh you know, but at some point you gotta wonder, 0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:58.280 you know, how long is the government going to be 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.440 issuing these checks? And that's what I was trying to 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:04.959 get at. So will it all hit in the fourth quarter? 0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:09.080 Probably not, but it's if they don't kick down the 0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:11.880 road again, I would expect that you these things are 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:15.360 going to have to work themselves out well. Um, just 0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:17.640 like George, I spent a lot of time studying with 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:19.679 the Fed, FED is doing, the Central Banks and the 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.040 Federal Reserve, and so, UM, it just seems to me, 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.439 I mean, they've they've passed their nine billion, another one 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:26.160 point nine trillion is about to come through. I think 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:29.800 there's another potentially three trillion there negotiating but coming out 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.320 with next I just don't think that they've come this 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:34.760 far to let it fall apart at this point. In 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.800 addition to that, um, if the stock market and the 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:41.040 real estate markets were to crash hard, debt to GDP 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:44.120 levels would skyrocket to a level that would probably wreck 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:48.240 the country. And so they're they're kind of forced in 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:49.679 a way. I just don't think they would let it go. 0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:53.400 But we don't know. But one thing I would also say, though, 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:55.600 is it and you can see what you've I know, 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.080 You've looked at the data more than I have on this, 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.880 but it seems like the people that are affected, the 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:01.640 people that have lost their job, the people that are 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:06.440 still unemployed, are mostly service level jobs, service sector jobs, 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:09.120 and so maybe a lot of those people one don't 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.520 own homes, and two if they do own homes, there 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:18.280 are only in certain price points and markets. Um, what 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:20.760 do you think about that? 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Of how to claim your two 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:01.560 and fifty dollars today, you start to look at these, 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:05.200 um you know, that's obviously on the higher end side, 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:09.600 you know, companies like JP Morgan, which I know we 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.280 were talking about before, or Goodman Sacks, and you start 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:14.720 to look at these big, big companies that are based 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:16.720 in you know, it's not just all about New York 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:19.920 with Chicago, and I have friends that are that have 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.760 spaces in those in those in those markets, and they're 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:26.440 paying rent and none of their employees are going to 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:30.640 the office and and so you know, that's you know, 0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:34.040 that's all the stuff that no one has really talked 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.360 about yet. And so you're right, it's definitely at the 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:39.560 lower end for sure. And those are the ones that 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:42.640 show up first. But then there's a whole troncha people 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:46.400 I think that are are displaced right now, that are 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.960 trying to find their way. And I got seventy resumes 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:52.560 from my CEO position and none of them from a 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:56.520 local area. Wow. Okay, so let's let's chase that down 0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:59.160 a little bit. So there's great migration, right, Everybody wants 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:00.880 to get the heck out of Dodge, right, They're leaving 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.080 New York and they want to migrate to these areas. 0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:07.160 And so, um, we were talking earlier about this headline 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:09.080 I saw with JP Morgan and putting up like eight 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:13.400 hundred thousand square feet of office space. We've seen most 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:16.080 of Wall Street, Goldman Sacks, even the New York Stock 0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:20.040 Exchange are announcing their all moving down to Florida. People 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:22.880 trying to go to Arizona where you're at. Talk about 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.720 this great migration a little bit. It's true, you know, 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:28.760 I think you probably saw the news. It's a it's 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:32.360 a bit dadd now, but Pinterest wrote a ninety million 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:36.760 dollar check to get out of their lease in San Francisco. Uh, 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:39.560 you know, and and so you start to see, you know, 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:43.840 I'm in the commercial space primarily, so I own office buildings, 0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:47.920 we have self storage, I do land development. And obviously 0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:50.880 what I've primarily known for what I do is multi family. 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:54.600 And that's also a different issue. I have friends that 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:57.600 are all multi family in Chicago and New York and 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:01.720 and in in San Francisco and Attle and and they're 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:08.960 in troubble obviously for multiple reasons. And so I think that, uh, 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:11.840 and the hotel business, you know, those little micro hotels 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:15.040 are just getting crushed right now because you can't survive 0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:21.480 on ten, which you're where they are. And so all 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:25.119 of that's happening, and I think the migration patterns are 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:28.840 I think it's fascinating personally. I think the fact that 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:31.760 you know, you can you can go to be a worker, 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:36.920 let's say, for Twitter and and live in Texas now, right, 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:40.439 So I think that's awesome. And the fact that but 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:43.280 it is going to make a massive real estate impact 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:47.040 for obviously San Francisco, as you know, just to pick 0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:49.720 on them, but things are happening like that all over 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:53.000 Mark even my own company. You know, we're taking a 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:55.359 look at this hybrid model. You know, we have a 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:59.280 lot of space. And I have every conversation I have 0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.680 with my friends, they're like, okay, well all my people 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:05.360 have been home for a year almost so how much 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:07.679 space do I really need? And so at the end 0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:10.960 of their leases, they're going, well, you know, I had 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:14.640 twenty thousand, now I'm out five, you know, and and uh, 0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:18.040 it's really really interesting. I think, what what you're going 0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:21.560 to start to see. I was actually playing golf with 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:24.680 the one of the top guys that Freddie Mack and 0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:27.480 he you know, he's in Arizona, of all things, and 0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:29.600 him and his wife ought a place out here. He 0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:31.840 flies back. I said, what are you gonna do with 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:35.080 that massive campus? And he said, well, I think what 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:37.479 we're gonna do is we're gonna put a hotel. We're 0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:39.960 gonna put some hotels in there and make it all 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:43.080 more like a conference center, you know, just for Freddie mckinploy. 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:46.480 So you can fly in, you know, uh, stay there, go, 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:48.520 you know, meet when you need to meet, and then 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:50.240 fly back to where you are. And so I think 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:54.359 you're gonna see this repurposing of real estate. You know, 0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:57.880 we're certainly seeing with the regional malls already, which we're 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:02.120 already in trouble pre you know, Preak COVID, and so 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:05.240 it's it's an exciting time for real estate investing. In 0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:09.960 my opinion. Well, anytime there's change, it creates opportunity. And 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:12.680 so as an investor, no matter what market you're in, 0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:15.600 you're looking for that change because that's where the opportunity 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:16.720 is going to be if you get it right and 0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:19.880 you can get there before it. I think it was Buffet, 0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:23.359 you know whoever said that the markets are discounting mechanisms, right, 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:25.399 So you're trying to get a discount on what the 0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:28.439 future is gonna hold. But I would say, just to 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.240 add to that, UM, I was already tracking this great 0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:34.960 migration from what the baby boomers. They're all retiring and 0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:36.800 they all want to sell their McMansions, and they all 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:38.240 want to move somewhere where it's sunny and they can 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:40.160 play golf in tennis during a sixty five days a year. 0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:43.639 We already had that going on, and now you're adding 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.159 on the COVID work from home kind of thing on 0:19:46.240 --> 0:19:49.399 top of that, and so it's a powerful, powerful trend. 0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:52.000 So UM, I guess let's wrap it up with that 0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:55.600 and just say, UM that anybody looking at real estate 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:58.920 needs to understand it's local and they need to understand 0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:03.399 these supply and demand tricks. UM. Now, if we want 0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:06.399 to UM kind of take it a little bit for farther. 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:09.280 So people who are interested in this topic, let's talk 0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:12.960 about different ways that they would buy real estate. So 0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:15.760 first off, they would have like their home. So if 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:17.600 you're if you want to buy a home, so a 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:18.879 lot of people are going, should I buy a home 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:20.760 this year or not? Rates are cheap? Should I lock 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:23.600 it in? Um? I don't believe that you should look 0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:25.159