WEBVTT - Reversing Russia's Decline. Mike Lyons Talks to A&G 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:03.199 Please welcome Mike Lyons military analysts. Mike served with various 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:07.520 military military organizations in both the US and Europe throughout 0:00:07.560 --> 0:00:10.760 his career, decorating with the Bronze Star, among other things. Mike, 0:00:10.800 --> 0:00:13.080 how are you, sir. It's great to be back with you. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:16.640 On a lighter note, first of all, our executive producer 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.440 Mike Hanson informs me that he bothered you in the 0:00:19.440 --> 0:00:22.240 midst of the Super Bowl yesterday as you're attempting to 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:26.440 enjoy that great national holiday. I apologize for that. No, 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:28.560 no problem, no, no problem. Always on. I'm always available 0:00:28.600 --> 0:00:30.360 for you guys. Of course, thank you. And that's what 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:33.839 a worker he is too. He's amazing. Anyway, So I 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:37.040 saw the latest headlines over the weekend were that a 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:41.560 number of nations were evacuating embassy personnel, civilians, that sort 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:44.800 of thing. I don't know on what basis they make 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.400 those decisions, but the number, the sheer number of countries 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:50.280 doing that was pretty ominous. It is, and we're all 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:52.440 trying to look for the historical analogy at this point. 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:55.280 You know, is it nineteen fourteen before first, you know, 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:58.160 the First World War? Is it appeasement to take place 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:01.160 in ninety eight with Munich and the British is it 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:04.080 Independence Day where you know, the spaceships are all kind 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:05.520 of lining up and everyone's trying to get out of 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.400 the cities before something happens. And so I think that 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:10.880 they're gonna give diplomacy one more chance. You saw that 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:12.840 the Ukraine minister is going to look to talk to 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:16.919 Russia with this now potential promise of not joining NATO. 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:21.800 But that's really not anything that's tangible whatsoever, because the 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:24.199 bottom line is to get Ukraine and NATO, it would 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:27.920 take agreement of all other NATO countries right now, and 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:30.120 in Turkey wouldn't agree with it, neither with Germany, and 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:31.800 neither with a bunch of other nations, so that that 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:33.760 really is a fatal complete And that's so I don't 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:36.520 think that Russia is gonna take that seriously. They want more. 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:39.880 They're gonna want maybe a new missile defense tree. There's 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:41.840 a lot more things that Roden M. Putin wants, uh 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:46.440 or else. He likely launches a kind of combat on 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:48.040 the on the on the continent we haven't seen since 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:50.160 the Second World War. You know what I don't have 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:54.600 a grasp on at all is whether Putin is sincerely 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:59.640 seeking uh security concessions of the sort you just described 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:04.520 um or whether this all is a pretext for snatching 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:06.880 up land that he considers rightfully part of the great 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:11.400 restored Soviet Empire, or does he have both options to 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.600 him and then he's neither one nor the other necessarily. Yeah, No, 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:16.520 I think it's more of the second. He doesn't want 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:17.959 to take this land back. You know, he's got a 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:21.919 finite life shelf life himself. He sees Russian greatness, and 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:24.720 he's trying to project Russian into the future. That's really 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:27.320 what from his perspective, what this is about. And the 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:29.760 only way that a country does that is by taking 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.080 over resources. I think I think he's got to be 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:35.840 faced with the decision of taking Crimea, taking already taking Crimea, 0:02:35.919 --> 0:02:39.120 taken Ukraine and possibly destroying things that he's going to 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:41.400 want to use in the future. But to your point, 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:44.880 you know, he gets Ukraine, he has influence over Belarus. 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:46.560 What's not to say he's going to want to encroach 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:50.919 in potentially the northern countries and Latvia stillity NATO countries. Now, 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:53.560 how's how's that going to go? So I think that 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:56.800 that's why this appeasement argument is out there because people say, well, 0:02:56.800 --> 0:02:58.960 if we've given out of this, then he'll just look 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:00.840 to do that in the future. But you know, he's 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:03.440 got to look forward in a country that's dying. Fundamentally, 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:05.280 Russia is going in the wrong direction, and I think 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:07.359 he recognizes that, and this is the way he thinks 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:09.480 he can rehearse that. Well, yeah, I guess what I'm 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:13.160 asking is, are the international diplomats trying desperately to to 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:15.960 talk sense to Sergei Lavrov and all the Russians? Are 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:19.000 they just Neville Neville Chamberlain going to Hitler And there 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:21.760 was never anything that was going to appease Hitler. He 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:25.639 had a specific plan. Do you think Putin's still weighing 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:29.160 options there? Would you guess he has a specific plan? Now? 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:31.200 I think he has a plan. And that's the point 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:34.520 about Neville Chamberlain going and to Hitler was you know, 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:37.760 I watched historians now try to say, well, actually that 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:40.560 wasn't that bad because it bought the UK another year 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:42.280 or so to get ready for the war that's coming. 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:44.280 I I kinda shake my head saying that's not what's 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:48.480 happening here. Ukraine's not getting any further ready. For a war. Um, 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:51.480 I have to wonder what the military is doing right now. 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.600 They're obviously on highl earth. They're they're going to be undermanned, 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:57.240 They're going to be underwhelmed by the technology that they 0:03:57.240 --> 0:03:59.480 have compared to what the Russians have on the other side. 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:01.160 I wonder what the USS and soldiers thinking on their 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:03.040 side of the border. Do they know when they're coming? 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:05.280 Are they sitting? Did they get the order and they 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:07.520 were told to pause? I've been in that situation before, 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:10.120 but I do I don't think that. I think. I 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:12.320 think food and clearly has a strategic plan. He's always 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:14.800 been one of those kinds of thinkers over over the horizon, 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:17.560 making sure he has something in play, and I believe 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:21.720 that in this case he'll play that out. Military analysts 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:25.760 Mike Lions on the line, Mike, we don't We civilians 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:29.719 don't really have a sense of how great Russia's superiority 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:32.200 is over the Ukrainian forces were told that they're they're 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:33.760 pretty well trained, A lot of a lot of them 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:37.680 are battle hardened. The Ukrainians reasonably well eclipped equipped. Is 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:39.760 it like two to one, five to one, ten to one, 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.560 it's you know, you to compared both militaries, it's more 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:45.400 like seven or eight two one. It's very high. But 0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:47.080 but the issue is what they've got a math on 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:49.600 the border and what they're up against and what Russia 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:51.640 does have a success in the military. I think that's 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:55.400 been understated here. Um, Russian military units have been deployed 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.440 as Syria for the past ten years working that civil war, 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:01.840 so they're going to be somewhe battle tested themselves. And 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:05.560 the Ukraine's no, They've got within their culture, they're embedded 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:07.400 to fight and and and the and the like. And 0:05:08.040 --> 0:05:10.240 you've got people now and looking to try to create 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:12.719 this model of well let's let them in and then 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:15.400 we'll have this counterinsturency that takes place. You just Russia 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:17.120 won't play with that. I don't think that's going to 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:19.080 be an issue at all. Russia is going to look 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:22.680 to destroy the Ukraine military. There's going to be significant 0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:27.000 you know, artillery missiles, all kinds of indirect fire against 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.120 their military targets, looking to destroy their military before it 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:32.600 gets out of the motor poole. And um, it's it's 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:34.560 going to be unfortunate if you're if you're wearing a 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:37.000 Ukraine uniform or you're you've got a gun in your 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:39.040 hand walking around Ukraine. You're gonna be a target for 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:41.840 the Russian military and you're out and you're outnumbering the 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:44.039 emotion military outnumbers. I'm onner the ground right now, three 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:47.360 to one, four to one. Wow. Wow. Uh So, finally, 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:50.600 we Americans tend to fixate on one story at a time. 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:53.160 Are there any other hotspots around the globe that you 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.360 have special interest in that have really grabbed your attention. 0:05:57.000 --> 0:05:58.440 I'm always looking at the Middle East, and got my 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:00.760 son deployed there, so I've got a little hit eyes 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.200 there as well. With what's going on with the missile 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:07.680 with the Iranian missile deal or I'm sorry, the nuclear deal. Um. 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:09.800 From a military perspective, though, we could need to project 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:11.880 power and I think you know, this is going to 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.560 give us an opportunity to if we do this properly, 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:16.560 to to really think about if they do decide to 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:18.160 go in Ukraine, what what are we gonna do? We 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:22.240 us start protecting our assets that are in space if 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:24.320 we're going to help the Ukraine military, which is what 0:06:24.360 --> 0:06:25.839 we would do. Now, let's see if that they do 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:29.640 role tanks, Um, We've got some ground surveillance, radars and 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:32.359 things that we could possibly help them with intelligence and information. 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:35.039 UM I do. I do think that next stiff dimension 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:37.240 we'll take place in outer space and they'll be they'll 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:39.719 be combat up there at some point. And the question is, 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:42.360 you know, perhaps this was the precursor to that. If 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:44.000 we can you know, protect those assets there, I think 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:46.000 will be okay. You know, that's the topic we ought 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.560 to pursue on another day. Absolutely interesting and the idea 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:53.120 that the previous administration will leave the T word out 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:56.760 of it, but the previous administration's solidifying and starting up 0:06:56.800 --> 0:06:59.240 the space force. The fact that that was mocked and 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.520 laughed at is just it's a measure of how stupid 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:05.680 we can be. I think, no, no, no question, And 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:09.680 that's exactly where the next battle takes place, cyber overseas, 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:12.120 all of that, especially in space as well. We can 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:14.920 we're concerned about these countries that have nuclear capability. We've 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:17.040 talked about before. You can't you know, have a new 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:18.400 can you have able to deliver a new can be 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.800 a space force in order to get it across the continents. Um. 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:23.840 I do think that right, And we've got so much 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:27.240 intel collection assets up there right now. What if what 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:29.440 if China decides to knock some of those things out 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:32.840 right now in precursor to this invasion in Ukraine, that 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:34.800 that can already be starting in some ways, and we've 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:35.880 got to figure out a way how we're going to 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:39.200 protect that. Wow. Wow, Mic Lions military analyst, Mike, thanks 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:41.080 a million, good to talk to you. We appreciate it. 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:48.040 Thanks alright, absolutely wow. The idea that the next front 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:52.320 in warfare is blowing each other's satellites out of the sky, 0:07:52.480 --> 0:07:57.320 and then I would imagine aggressively launching dozens, hundreds, thousands 0:07:57.600 --> 0:07:59.800 more satellites up in the sky so our eyes and 0:07:59.840 --> 0:08:02.640 the years uh continue to function up there, because I 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:06.160 know that's that's an enormous part part of American military 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:11.360 capability is a communications and uh and that's that's a 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:13.880 great field in itself. If you ever want to get 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:17.520 truly wonky about the communication systems we're trying to design 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:19.520 so that if they knock out A, we go to B, 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:21.800 they knock out B, we go to C and and 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:24.960 just always have a certain amount of reasonable command and control. 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:28.840 But the idea that um that all of that is 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:32.480 now vulnerable in a way that it hasn't been in generations. 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:34.079 I mean, that'll get your attention.