1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,199 Speaker 1: Please welcome Mike Lyons military analysts. Mike served with various 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: military military organizations in both the US and Europe throughout 3 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: his career, decorating with the Bronze Star, among other things. Mike, 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: how are you, sir. It's great to be back with you. 5 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: On a lighter note, first of all, our executive producer 6 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,440 Speaker 1: Mike Hanson informs me that he bothered you in the 7 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,240 Speaker 1: midst of the Super Bowl yesterday as you're attempting to 8 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:26,440 Speaker 1: enjoy that great national holiday. I apologize for that. No, 9 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: no problem, no, no problem. Always on. I'm always available 10 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: for you guys. Of course, thank you. And that's what 11 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: a worker he is too. He's amazing. Anyway, So I 12 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: saw the latest headlines over the weekend were that a 13 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:41,560 Speaker 1: number of nations were evacuating embassy personnel, civilians, that sort 14 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: of thing. I don't know on what basis they make 15 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: those decisions, but the number, the sheer number of countries 16 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: doing that was pretty ominous. It is, and we're all 17 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 1: trying to look for the historical analogy at this point. 18 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: You know, is it nineteen fourteen before first, you know, 19 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: the First World War? Is it appeasement to take place 20 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 1: in ninety eight with Munich and the British is it 21 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 1: Independence Day where you know, the spaceships are all kind 22 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: of lining up and everyone's trying to get out of 23 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,400 Speaker 1: the cities before something happens. And so I think that 24 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: they're gonna give diplomacy one more chance. You saw that 25 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: the Ukraine minister is going to look to talk to 26 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:16,919 Speaker 1: Russia with this now potential promise of not joining NATO. 27 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: But that's really not anything that's tangible whatsoever, because the 28 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,199 Speaker 1: bottom line is to get Ukraine and NATO, it would 29 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: take agreement of all other NATO countries right now, and 30 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 1: in Turkey wouldn't agree with it, neither with Germany, and 31 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: neither with a bunch of other nations, so that that 32 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 1: really is a fatal complete And that's so I don't 33 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: think that Russia is gonna take that seriously. They want more. 34 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: They're gonna want maybe a new missile defense tree. There's 35 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 1: a lot more things that Roden M. Putin wants, uh 36 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: or else. He likely launches a kind of combat on 37 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: the on the on the continent we haven't seen since 38 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: the Second World War. You know what I don't have 39 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: a grasp on at all is whether Putin is sincerely 40 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: seeking uh security concessions of the sort you just described 41 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: um or whether this all is a pretext for snatching 42 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: up land that he considers rightfully part of the great 43 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: restored Soviet Empire, or does he have both options to 44 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 1: him and then he's neither one nor the other necessarily. Yeah, No, 45 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: I think it's more of the second. He doesn't want 46 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:17,959 Speaker 1: to take this land back. You know, he's got a 47 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 1: finite life shelf life himself. He sees Russian greatness, and 48 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: he's trying to project Russian into the future. That's really 49 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: what from his perspective, what this is about. And the 50 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: only way that a country does that is by taking 51 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 1: over resources. I think I think he's got to be 52 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 1: faced with the decision of taking Crimea, taking already taking Crimea, 53 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: taken Ukraine and possibly destroying things that he's going to 54 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: want to use in the future. But to your point, 55 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: you know, he gets Ukraine, he has influence over Belarus. 56 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: What's not to say he's going to want to encroach 57 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 1: in potentially the northern countries and Latvia stillity NATO countries. Now, 58 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: how's how's that going to go? So I think that 59 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 1: that's why this appeasement argument is out there because people say, well, 60 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: if we've given out of this, then he'll just look 61 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: to do that in the future. But you know, he's 62 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: got to look forward in a country that's dying. Fundamentally, 63 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: Russia is going in the wrong direction, and I think 64 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: he recognizes that, and this is the way he thinks 65 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: he can rehearse that. Well, yeah, I guess what I'm 66 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: asking is, are the international diplomats trying desperately to to 67 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: talk sense to Sergei Lavrov and all the Russians? Are 68 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: they just Neville Neville Chamberlain going to Hitler And there 69 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: was never anything that was going to appease Hitler. He 70 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 1: had a specific plan. Do you think Putin's still weighing 71 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: options there? Would you guess he has a specific plan? Now? 72 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: I think he has a plan. And that's the point 73 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: about Neville Chamberlain going and to Hitler was you know, 74 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: I watched historians now try to say, well, actually that 75 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: wasn't that bad because it bought the UK another year 76 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 1: or so to get ready for the war that's coming. 77 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 1: I I kinda shake my head saying that's not what's 78 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: happening here. Ukraine's not getting any further ready. For a war. Um, 79 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: I have to wonder what the military is doing right now. 80 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: They're obviously on highl earth. They're they're going to be undermanned, 81 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: They're going to be underwhelmed by the technology that they 82 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: have compared to what the Russians have on the other side. 83 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: I wonder what the USS and soldiers thinking on their 84 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: side of the border. Do they know when they're coming? 85 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: Are they sitting? Did they get the order and they 86 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: were told to pause? I've been in that situation before, 87 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: but I do I don't think that. I think. I 88 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: think food and clearly has a strategic plan. He's always 89 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: been one of those kinds of thinkers over over the horizon, 90 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: making sure he has something in play, and I believe 91 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:21,720 Speaker 1: that in this case he'll play that out. Military analysts 92 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 1: Mike Lions on the line, Mike, we don't We civilians 93 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 1: don't really have a sense of how great Russia's superiority 94 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: is over the Ukrainian forces were told that they're they're 95 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 1: pretty well trained, A lot of a lot of them 96 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: are battle hardened. The Ukrainians reasonably well eclipped equipped. Is 97 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 1: it like two to one, five to one, ten to one, 98 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: it's you know, you to compared both militaries, it's more 99 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: like seven or eight two one. It's very high. But 100 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: but the issue is what they've got a math on 101 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 1: the border and what they're up against and what Russia 102 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: does have a success in the military. I think that's 103 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: been understated here. Um, Russian military units have been deployed 104 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: as Syria for the past ten years working that civil war, 105 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 1: so they're going to be somewhe battle tested themselves. And 106 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 1: the Ukraine's no, They've got within their culture, they're embedded 107 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: to fight and and and the and the like. And 108 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: you've got people now and looking to try to create 109 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 1: this model of well let's let them in and then 110 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 1: we'll have this counterinsturency that takes place. You just Russia 111 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: won't play with that. I don't think that's going to 112 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: be an issue at all. Russia is going to look 113 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: to destroy the Ukraine military. There's going to be significant 114 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: you know, artillery missiles, all kinds of indirect fire against 115 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: their military targets, looking to destroy their military before it 116 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 1: gets out of the motor poole. And um, it's it's 117 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: going to be unfortunate if you're if you're wearing a 118 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 1: Ukraine uniform or you're you've got a gun in your 119 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,040 Speaker 1: hand walking around Ukraine. You're gonna be a target for 120 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 1: the Russian military and you're out and you're outnumbering the 121 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 1: emotion military outnumbers. I'm onner the ground right now, three 122 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: to one, four to one. Wow. Wow. Uh So, finally, 123 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 1: we Americans tend to fixate on one story at a time. 124 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 1: Are there any other hotspots around the globe that you 125 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: have special interest in that have really grabbed your attention. 126 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: I'm always looking at the Middle East, and got my 127 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: son deployed there, so I've got a little hit eyes 128 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: there as well. With what's going on with the missile 129 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 1: with the Iranian missile deal or I'm sorry, the nuclear deal. Um. 130 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: From a military perspective, though, we could need to project 131 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: power and I think you know, this is going to 132 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: give us an opportunity to if we do this properly, 133 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: to to really think about if they do decide to 134 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 1: go in Ukraine, what what are we gonna do? We 135 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: us start protecting our assets that are in space if 136 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 1: we're going to help the Ukraine military, which is what 137 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 1: we would do. Now, let's see if that they do 138 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: role tanks, Um, We've got some ground surveillance, radars and 139 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,359 Speaker 1: things that we could possibly help them with intelligence and information. 140 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 1: UM I do. I do think that next stiff dimension 141 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 1: we'll take place in outer space and they'll be they'll 142 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 1: be combat up there at some point. And the question is, 143 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 1: you know, perhaps this was the precursor to that. If 144 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: we can you know, protect those assets there, I think 145 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: will be okay. You know, that's the topic we ought 146 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: to pursue on another day. Absolutely interesting and the idea 147 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: that the previous administration will leave the T word out 148 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: of it, but the previous administration's solidifying and starting up 149 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: the space force. The fact that that was mocked and 150 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: laughed at is just it's a measure of how stupid 151 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: we can be. I think, no, no, no question, And 152 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 1: that's exactly where the next battle takes place, cyber overseas, 153 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 1: all of that, especially in space as well. We can 154 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: we're concerned about these countries that have nuclear capability. We've 155 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 1: talked about before. You can't you know, have a new 156 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 1: can you have able to deliver a new can be 157 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: a space force in order to get it across the continents. Um. 158 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: I do think that right, And we've got so much 159 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: intel collection assets up there right now. What if what 160 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: if China decides to knock some of those things out 161 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: right now in precursor to this invasion in Ukraine, that 162 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: that can already be starting in some ways, and we've 163 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: got to figure out a way how we're going to 164 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: protect that. Wow. Wow, Mic Lions military analyst, Mike, thanks 165 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: a million, good to talk to you. We appreciate it. 166 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: Thanks alright, absolutely wow. The idea that the next front 167 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 1: in warfare is blowing each other's satellites out of the sky, 168 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: and then I would imagine aggressively launching dozens, hundreds, thousands 169 00:07:57,600 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: more satellites up in the sky so our eyes and 170 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: the years uh continue to function up there, because I 171 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: know that's that's an enormous part part of American military 172 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 1: capability is a communications and uh and that's that's a 173 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: great field in itself. If you ever want to get 174 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: truly wonky about the communication systems we're trying to design 175 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 1: so that if they knock out A, we go to B, 176 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: they knock out B, we go to C and and 177 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: just always have a certain amount of reasonable command and control. 178 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: But the idea that um that all of that is 179 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: now vulnerable in a way that it hasn't been in generations. 180 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:34,079 Speaker 1: I mean, that'll get your attention.