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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar playera Android auto with

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get

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Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Joining us from the warm climes of Portland. Gerard Cassidy

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Speaker 3: ahead of US bank Equity strategy at RBC definitive on

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Speaker 3: the American banking industry. Gerard. In my opinion, JP Morgan

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Speaker 3: and others, but particularly JB. Morgan, are softballing their excellence

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Speaker 3: on a ratio basis. The ten to fifteen to twenty

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Speaker 3: ratios you look at as a pro Have you ever

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Speaker 3: seen this before from a financial.

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Speaker 4: Institution, Tom, You're right, the number are incredibly strong. One

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Speaker 4: of the ratios you refer to is their capital ratio

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Speaker 4: known as the CET one Common Equity Tier one ratio,

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Speaker 4: and it's over fifteen percent, and that's very strong.

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Speaker 5: And you go back to the days when we looked

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Speaker 5: at the banks in the nineteen eighties and early nineties

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Speaker 5: and the capital levels were nowhere near those levels.

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Speaker 6: And second, not only of the capital levels so strong, Tom,

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Speaker 6: the ri TCE on tangible common equity is extraordinarily high,

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Speaker 6: and they're doing a very good job.

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Speaker 3: Gerroed Cassidy. When I knew you at Tucker Anthony and

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Speaker 3: RL Day, so that's back when we first was rockets.

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Speaker 3: I used to read Paul Sweeny folks at week First,

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Speaker 3: But at Tucker Anthony and RL Day, Gerard Cassidy used

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Speaker 3: to quill in a pot of ink. That's not the

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Speaker 3: way it is now. Gerard Cassidy is JP Morgan lead

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Speaker 3: on technology investment.

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Speaker 6: They sure do, Tom, as do many of the other

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Speaker 6: large banks. The banking industry as a whole is obviously

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Speaker 6: investing billions, hundreds of billions of dollars actually into technology.

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Speaker 6: AI of course is the big buzzword, but it's the

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Speaker 6: digital technology. When you think back Tom, when Apple introduced

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Speaker 6: the iPhone around two thousand and eight, and you think

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Speaker 6: how you would do your banking services, and how in

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Speaker 6: as little of what fifteen sixteen years, how that has

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Speaker 6: changed dramatically in JP Morgan, Bank America or Wells Fargo

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Speaker 6: are all leading the way with digital technology, both of

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Speaker 6: the commercial customer and the consumer customer.

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Speaker 7: Gerard, you know, well, I heard some comments this morning

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Speaker 7: from mister Diamond, and we'll also hear from Brian Moynhan

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Speaker 7: at Bank of America about the what they feel like

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Speaker 7: are some overly owners I guess restrictions placed upon them,

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Speaker 7: I guess after the Great Financial Crisis, But despite that

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Speaker 7: they can coninue to put up just massive numbers here.

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Speaker 7: Is it an argument to be made that the banks

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Speaker 7: are okay here? Don't you don't have to worry about

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Speaker 7: them being overregulated.

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Speaker 6: I think one of the challenges that the big banks

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Speaker 6: are seeing when it comes to regulation is that they're

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Speaker 6: now competing more than ever with the so called shadow

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Speaker 6: banking industry, particularly private credit and private equity. And I

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Speaker 6: think that's where the biggest banks feel that they're more

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Speaker 6: constrained because of being a bank regulated company and having

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Speaker 6: to adhere to these regulations capital.

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Speaker 8: Requirements, liquidity and requirements that Apollo, Blackstone and others don't

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Speaker 8: not do it here to That's I think their biggest

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Speaker 8: focus right now just to try to get bat.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I mean, I'm I'm trying to get an

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Speaker 3: October lobster roll here on Cassidy. Come on, Jane Frazier's

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Speaker 3: out front on this. She's still want to deal with apollow,

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Speaker 3: the big banks are going to co opt the excellence

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Speaker 3: of private EQ private credit? Is that what you would

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Speaker 3: tell JP Morgan, just do a deal and co opt

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Speaker 3: the industry.

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Speaker 6: They certainly could consider that strategy as well. They certainly

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Speaker 6: have you know, lowered their exposure compared to where they

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Speaker 6: were in this you know, leverage lending area, let's say,

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Speaker 6: compared to two thousand and six, as is the industry

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Speaker 6: because as you know, Tom, they go through the stress

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Speaker 6: test every year and that's where the regulators really keep

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Speaker 6: these banks in check. And the industry, including JP Morgan,

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Speaker 6: have been de risked, which makes it even a stronger

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Speaker 6: industry as we go forward.

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Speaker 9: So how about Wells Fargo today.

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Speaker 7: When I think about Wells Fargo, I think about corporate banking,

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Speaker 7: lending to companies across the country, mortgage, business, consumer What

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Speaker 7: you see out of Wells Fargo today.

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Speaker 6: Wells put up in very good numbers. One of the

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Speaker 6: areas of concern for Wells recently has been their commercial

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Speaker 6: real estate office portfolio. There was some meaningful deterioration in

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Speaker 6: that portfolio in the past twelve to eighteen months, reflecting

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Speaker 6: the weakness in that market. But it's stabilizing. Their credit

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Speaker 6: picture is remains very resilient and strong.

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Speaker 4: And they have the asset cap.

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Speaker 6: You might recall they have a cease and desist order

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Speaker 6: from the Federal Reserve that was put in place in

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Speaker 6: February of twenty eighteen. And on top of the cease

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Speaker 6: and desist order, they have this asset cap they're trying

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Speaker 6: to have lifted. There seems to be strong indications it

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Speaker 6: could be lifted some time in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: One of my high points of the week, Giord Cassidy

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Speaker 3: was a good conversation with Thomas Show of course at

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Speaker 3: Keith Bread and Stiefel, and we were talking about the

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Speaker 3: roll ups of the industry. Give me a bank where

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Speaker 3: they're not worried about going to lunch forever. Give me

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Speaker 3: a smaller bank, Gyard Cassidy. It's in the business of

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Speaker 3: doing the right thing for their shareholders.

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Speaker 6: Tom There are many of them, and some of them

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Speaker 6: aren't so small when you look at some of the

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Speaker 6: bigger regional names like A Fifth Third or Regions RF,

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Speaker 6: but moving down into the smaller names looking to win

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Speaker 6: trust out of Chicago, doing a very good job of

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Speaker 6: serving their customers in the Chicago market. Or provident bankers

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Speaker 6: out of New Jersey. These are companies that are smaller

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Speaker 6: regional banks doing a very good job. And I think

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Speaker 6: you're going to continue to see the smaller regional banks

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Speaker 6: perform well as long as they co stays in the

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Speaker 6: soft landing, which we're currently.

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Speaker 3: In love it. Jreck Cassidy, thank you so much. With

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Speaker 3: RBC Capital Markets.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 3: The paths from Buffalo to Simon's School, University of Rochester

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Speaker 3: to incredibly sterling career in fixed income Leslie Film joins us.

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Speaker 3: Right now, Lessie, I'm just gonna cut with with ubs,

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Speaker 3: I should say, Lessie, I'm gonna cut to the chase.

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Speaker 3: My head's spinning forward. Are you clipping a coupon? Can

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Speaker 3: you really convince me you can generate total return in

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Speaker 3: fixed income?

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Speaker 10: Most of that total return is going to be by

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Speaker 10: clipping that coupon, It's going to be from carrying deals.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 10: Our expectation is that that tenure where we are right now.

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Speaker 10: Run that four o nine next year is going to

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Speaker 10: be around three eighty to four ten. Spreads are so

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Speaker 10: incredibly tight given the fact that by pricing in that

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Speaker 10: soft landing everywhere or even no landing, So it's really

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Speaker 10: gonna be to your point about the carry.

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Speaker 3: So arboles calling up ubs with a pot of money,

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Speaker 3: do they say, do we ladder or do we barbell

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Speaker 3: given the demand of coupon.

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Speaker 10: You know, I think, first of all, it all depends

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Speaker 10: on your risk. But actually, you know, we're preferring more

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Speaker 10: of right now, a bit of that barbell, but you

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Speaker 10: know it does it depends on your risk. I mean,

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Speaker 10: I think that what we're going to see now is

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Speaker 10: the steepening of the Yeld curve. We still think the

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Speaker 10: Yeld curve is going to steep it heading into twenty

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Speaker 10: twenty five. We still think the Fed cuts twice this year,

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Speaker 10: once every quarter next year, terminal about you know, three

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Speaker 10: twenty five, three thirty ish, which is really where we

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Speaker 10: are right now. So the risk is that those people

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Speaker 10: go over their skis and really take on that lower

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Speaker 10: credit quality that we're seeing right now, and we're not

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Speaker 10: watching their correlations to the equity market and realize if

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Speaker 10: that you know, hard landing does occur if there is

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Speaker 10: or if there is a tail risk, which we're not

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Speaker 10: necessarily calling for, but you need to be mindful of risk.

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Speaker 10: Assets are tight across the board.

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Speaker 3: YEP.

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Speaker 7: For those of the our audience in front of a

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Speaker 7: Bloomberg terminal, I end GO is the UH function and

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Speaker 7: it gives you the Bloomberg Index browser the best performance

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Speaker 7: in the highields in the fixed income spaces, US corporate

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Speaker 7: high yield up seven point four to four percent.

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Speaker 9: How did that happen?

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Speaker 7: I thought people were concerned about recessions and things like that.

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Speaker 10: I think it's twofold. One is that when you look

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Speaker 10: at what's you know had the biggest rally if you will,

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Speaker 10: where it's where it's position on the curve of the HIL

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Speaker 10: indexes about a three year right, So you have that

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Speaker 10: short end that's coming down too. At some point in

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Speaker 10: time this year you had a seven point eight eight percent.

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Speaker 10: If you locked that in and clipped it and rolled it,

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Speaker 10: you're doing really well. And secondly, you know the high

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Speaker 10: healed sector, as we said, is around two ninety, so

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Speaker 10: you're looking at spreads that we haven't seen since two

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Speaker 10: thousand and seven. So the question really becomes what now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, for the kids listening worldwide, I got a

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Speaker 3: lovely note from a student in Switzerland the other day.

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Speaker 3: And for all of you younger, I really want to

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Speaker 3: point out, and Paul knows this, Leslie Falconio, her cadence

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Speaker 3: inner pace is how bond adults talk. They don't talk

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Speaker 3: like general counsel sanitized strategy stuff. They talk in this

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Speaker 3: Cliff bondway that you'll learn it, sorows you'll learn it, Oppenheimer.

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Speaker 3: And when you're holding court at ubs, Paul, I mean,

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Speaker 3: this is amazing. This is how adults talk in the business.

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Speaker 7: I'm trying to learn here a high quot quality. What's

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Speaker 7: quality mean to you?

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Speaker 10: You know that that's a great question. I mean I

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Speaker 10: think that you know, we look at the quality. You know,

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Speaker 10: when when people say this, I always find it find

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Speaker 10: it very interesting to us. It's investment grade. You know,

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Speaker 10: it's sort of like that triple being above that we

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Speaker 10: think is quality. Now there's tiering within quality. That's just it.

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Speaker 10: Not every quality is government guaranteed, okay, okay, So there's

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Speaker 10: tiering within that quality. But when we think about things,

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Speaker 10: you know, sectors that we have a low probability of

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Speaker 10: being downgraded. Or more importantly, what you're concerned about it

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Speaker 10: fixed income with your cash flows are defaults right, not

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Speaker 10: being downgraded, not spread widening. It's the defaults that you

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Speaker 10: worry about that impacts your cash flows. So for us,

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Speaker 10: we think about high quality is like that triple being above.

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Speaker 7: So I guess in the month of September, John Tucker

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Speaker 7: was reporting that it was, in terms of investment grade,

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Speaker 7: like a record month for new issuance. If I'm Morgan

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Speaker 7: Stanley trying to push some bonds out, do I call you?

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Speaker 7: Are you at the top of my call list? Are

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Speaker 7: you buying this stuff?

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Speaker 10: You know, we've had the technical tailwind to investment grade.

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Speaker 10: Corporate has been really, really large. That's why all the

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Speaker 10: supply has been absorbed. Insurance companies, you know, you know,

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Speaker 10: pension funds, foreign foreign buyers and you know retail as well,

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Speaker 10: ultra high now worth are still buying this. You know, again,

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Speaker 10: they could lock in and fix income, get get a

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Speaker 10: good carry, compound that income, and that they're total return

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Speaker 10: for a as a class that will you know, give

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Speaker 10: your principle back at par is pretty attractive.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's just completely unknown.

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Speaker 3: And folks at Bloomberg indexes from Lehman and Barclays over

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Speaker 3: the years, I'm sure times to couldn't of pick this up.

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Speaker 3: These are the definitive price index, Leslie Falconio. I don't

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Speaker 3: think anyone in the known world understands there's a bull

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Speaker 3: market in corporate bonds. Off of October of twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 3: that index is up seventeen make it eighteen percent, basically

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Speaker 3: nine percent per year in bonds. You're in a bull

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Speaker 3: market like in videos.

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Speaker 10: Right, absolutely, we absolutely are.

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Speaker 3: Am I right that people don't know this, that the

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Speaker 3: bond market's in a legit bullmark.

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Speaker 10: Oh, there's no question. I mean, let's be honest. Most

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Speaker 10: people focus on the equity market and the fixed income market,

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Speaker 10: the bond market sort of the hedge or the other.

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Speaker 2: That's right now.

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Speaker 3: I gotta get this in. I mean, this is really important.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if you can come back if you

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Speaker 3: were out of Jenny Creamle at Rochester, did you go

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Speaker 3: to Unicut Club or did you go to Jenny Beer?

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Speaker 3: Come on, be honest.

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Speaker 10: Well, I'm not a beer drinker, so I'm probably not

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Speaker 10: the best person to answer that. But I'm not sure

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Speaker 10: I'll leave it. What do you think I'll leave it

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Speaker 10: to your mail?

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Speaker 3: A star? You don't you don't drink, you wait to

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Speaker 3: get more cremail or our twelve more sail. Lessonfil Con.

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Speaker 3: She's the only one that went to Lake Placid and said.

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Speaker 4: Oh, this is warmer than New York.

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Speaker 3: Lesson for CODEO, Thank you so much for Buffalo from

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Speaker 3: the University of Rochester.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and broad

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

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Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: We lean on Jennifer Lee, senior economist BEMO Capital Markets.

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Speaker 3: The last time she was on, she was lights out

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Speaker 3: as well, which is more important? Jennifer Lee, CPI or PPI.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, and thank you very much for having me on.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you should be leaning on me

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Speaker 1: for everything, but I think I'm going to say the

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Speaker 1: CPI is more important. That whatever happens with the PPI

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Speaker 1: doesn't always filter into the Consumer Price Index, So we're

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Speaker 1: always just looking more closely on the CPI and of

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Speaker 1: course the core PC flater Right now, I mean it

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Speaker 1: looks like, you know, we got a little bit ahead

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Speaker 1: of ourselves, perhaps with a slightly hotter than expected number

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Speaker 1: that we saw yesterday for CPI and it sort of

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Speaker 1: balanced it out with today's PPI report at least a

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Speaker 1: headlight set that I can see so far. But it

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Speaker 1: shows that sorry going.

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Speaker 3: Nice to I know, I want to do the market

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Speaker 3: because it's it's moving.

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Speaker 4: It's moving. It's moving in a bright Belski way.

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Speaker 3: Where are negative five and we're now plus four on futures?

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Speaker 7: Jen, how do you think our Federal Reserve is going

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Speaker 7: to take in some of this inflation data that we've

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Speaker 7: had over the past couple of days.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna take it with a grain of salt.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you this, much like I was sort of

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Speaker 1: prepared for potentially a hotter than expected PPI and even

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Speaker 1: if it was, and again with a slightly stronger than

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Speaker 1: expected CPI number, I think the Fed is going to

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Speaker 1: take this with a grain of assault, because it's going

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Speaker 1: to take a lot, I think, to get them to

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Speaker 1: change the path that they're on. You remember how it

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Speaker 1: took what four, No, it took like five CPI reports

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Speaker 1: on the road to make to allow FED share powel

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Speaker 1: to be comfortable and confident to start cutting rates. So

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Speaker 1: it's going to take more than one slightly hotter than

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Speaker 1: expected inflation report to get them to get off that path.

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Speaker 1: It's going to have to be the bar is quite

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Speaker 1: high for him to not cut or at least take

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Speaker 1: a pass in November. So we continue to see the

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Speaker 1: FED continue to cut at a twenty five basis point

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Speaker 1: cadence over the next few meetings. I think fifty basis

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Speaker 1: points this for sure. Wolds sort of throw that one.

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Speaker 7: Do you feel like inflation's been whipped here, Jennifer? Or

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Speaker 7: do we have to keep an eye on it here?

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Speaker 3: You're on here's your geral, I am exactly word me too.

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Speaker 1: Okay. So I don't know if this is a popular view,

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Speaker 1: but I'm a little bit more cautious on the inflation front,

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Speaker 1: and I point to a number of a number of factors,

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Speaker 1: you know, longer term, I mean, we we do believe

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Speaker 1: that inflation is coming down towards that two percent target

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Speaker 1: thanks to all those right hikes that we've seen over

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Speaker 1: the past couple of years. But you know, as my

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Speaker 1: esteem colleague Brian Belski would say, you know, nothing comes

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Speaker 1: goes down in a straight line, or nothing moves in

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Speaker 1: a straight line. And I think it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a little bit but choppy moved down because we're still

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Speaker 1: going to potentially see some inflationary pressures, you know, coming

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Speaker 1: from all these terrorists that we've already seen so far,

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Speaker 1: and there's going to be probably more to come. You know,

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Speaker 1: all the longer term impact from climate change, all the

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Speaker 1: wacky weather, the extreme weather to weather that we've been

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Speaker 1: seeing have been has been really putting pressure on food prices,

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Speaker 1: the labor market, and you know, the last jobs report

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Speaker 1: was quite solid, which is interesting. I don't know, but

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Speaker 1: they're not that's going to be revised, so that'll be

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Speaker 1: the only time will tell. But you know, demographic wise, demographically,

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Speaker 1: you know where we're still seeing a you know, like

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Speaker 1: in terms of working age population as the declining fertility

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Speaker 1: rates are down, so we're going to still see tight

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Speaker 1: labor markets. And of course all the strikes and the

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Speaker 1: impact it could happen on the wages. So it's a

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Speaker 1: long list. I'm still a bit worried. I guess it's

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Speaker 1: still a bit worried on the inflation side.

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Speaker 3: You're writing into the weekend, jenniferly and here mid October.

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Speaker 3: I know it's too early, but I want you to

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Speaker 3: frame out Q four in the Q one of twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five. The fact is, everybody's gotten wrong real GDP

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Speaker 3: and nominal GDP buoyancy so far this year. Does that

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Speaker 3: continue where we get wrong the growthiness of America.

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Speaker 1: We've been okay, so we have been cautiously optimistic. We

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Speaker 1: have always been calling for that soft landing, you know,

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Speaker 1: so we have. I don't think we've ever called for

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Speaker 1: a hard recession, and we've been correct so far. But

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Speaker 1: of course, you know, it takes time for things to

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Speaker 1: filter through the economy. And again over five in the

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Speaker 1: basis points of great hikes is doing that this job

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Speaker 1: right now. So we're seeing the economy slow moderately, We're

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Speaker 1: seeing inflation slow moderately, and it's not going to again.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to come crashing down very quickly, but

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Speaker 1: it is coming down. So I think, you know, right

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Speaker 1: now we're seeing that gentle breaking of the economic growth.

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Speaker 1: So far as we're heading into the fourth quarter, it

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Speaker 1: will probably continue to see more of that, But there's

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Speaker 1: still a lot of uncertainty out there, given the things

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Speaker 1: that I just rambled off earlier. And of course, whatever

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Speaker 1: happens after the election and what policies the winning party

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Speaker 1: will be introducing to the table, and that's going to start.

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Speaker 1: We won't have a better good idea of that until January.

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Speaker 7: When you see inflation numbers like we have over the

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Speaker 7: past couple of years and labor numbers like we've seen here,

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Speaker 7: how does that inform kind of your view, Jennifer of

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Speaker 7: kind of the US consumer these days?

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Speaker 1: So we always say, you know, never to underestimate the

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Speaker 1: US consumer, and I still believe in that. You know,

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Speaker 1: we may see some month to month weaknesses overall, but

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Speaker 1: the US consumer is still in good shape. They've a

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Speaker 1: like an over five percent savings rate for example. You know,

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Speaker 1: you know that the job stata so far have been

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Speaker 1: still resilient as well. You know, the job was rate

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Speaker 1: of just over four percent, you know, off below is

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Speaker 1: of course, but it's still historically low, and I think

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Speaker 1: that is good news. Wages, you know, we've been averaging

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Speaker 1: about what zero point four percent average monthly wage growth

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Speaker 1: over the past year, which is still a decent number.

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Speaker 1: So as long as wage growth is strong, is decent.

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Speaker 1: We're still seeing job growth and there's money coming in

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Speaker 1: into you know, into one's bank account. I think that

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Speaker 1: leads the consumer in a good in a good position.

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Speaker 1: You know, they don't have to spend everything right away,

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Speaker 1: but at least they have something for a rainy day

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Speaker 1: that they could spend later.

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Speaker 3: How do you aggregate your numbers given the polarity of

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Speaker 3: society in America? How do you come to a summed conclusion,

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Speaker 3: given certainly what we see with our politics, the mass polarity,

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Speaker 3: the barbelle of America.

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Speaker 1: It's difficult, but we have to look at things in

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Speaker 1: the aggregate. And again, broadly speaking, we still have strong

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Speaker 1: or resilient US growth, you know, just over three percent

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Speaker 1: the second quarter. You know, we actually upped our growth

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Speaker 1: pecast just a little bit for this year to just

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Speaker 1: over two and a half percent, which is good. I mean, again,

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Speaker 1: after all everything that the US economy has gone through,

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Speaker 1: and then we're still raising them, which is good news.

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Speaker 1: And you know a number of shops I think have

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Speaker 1: been taking away their the recession forecasts as well. So

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Speaker 1: so far touch with you know, it looks like We're

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Speaker 1: in pretty decent shape, but we're gonna have to see

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Speaker 1: because a lot of things can happen. There's still a

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Speaker 1: lot of risk out there.

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Speaker 3: Jennifer. One final question, Thank god the Vikings have a

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Speaker 3: bye week? Has Belski beating you over the head talking

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Speaker 3: about Minnesota Vikings. You just stand up and walk out

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Speaker 3: of the room when he gets going.

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Speaker 1: Well, or I'll just nod.

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Speaker 3: Brian, that's finally good to see that Minnesota is finally winning.

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Speaker 3: Jennifer Lee, thank you so much, really valuable. She'll publish

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Speaker 3: this weekend. Look to Bemo Capital Markets.

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Speaker 2: This Here's the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each week

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Speaker 2: day starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and

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Speaker 2: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 2: watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 3: Getting it done as well into the weekend. Joseph Matthew,

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Speaker 3: It joins us right now. Balance of Power, My head spinning,

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Speaker 3: Joe Matthews said, spinning. Kaylee Lines knows exactly what's going on.

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Speaker 3: Joe Matthew, what do the two candidates need to do

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Speaker 3: to get to Monday?

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Speaker 9: To get to Monday? What a question.

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Speaker 11: You know, it's interesting because Donald Trump's going through Aurora,

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Speaker 11: Colorado to get to Monday. Kamala Harris has a very

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Speaker 11: different path. She's coming off this Univision town hall last night,

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Speaker 11: and it's pretty stark when you look at the contrast

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Speaker 11: between these two candidates. Donald Trump today wants to talk

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Speaker 11: about Venezuelan gangs taking over a town that most Americans

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Speaker 11: have not heard of. Kamala Harris is going to be

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Speaker 11: getting brief by FEMA today and talking about damage estimates

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Speaker 11: in hurricane disaster recovery. The fact that is both seem

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Speaker 11: to be working. This is a tied race. Tom It's

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Speaker 11: a one point race and every state that counts, maybe

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Speaker 11: not Minnesota, and so all the experts are scratching their heads.

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Speaker 9: Wondering how to answer that question.

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Speaker 7: Well, you mentioned Joe of the Kamala Howards at a

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Speaker 7: town hall with Univision last night, So I guess it

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Speaker 7: begs a question. How crucial is the Latino voting? How's

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Speaker 7: it breaking?

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Speaker 9: Well?

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Speaker 11: Very and look the narrative going into Kamala Harris arriving

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Speaker 11: at the top of the ticket was Donald Trump has

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Speaker 11: taking these votes away from Democrats, young black males, young

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Speaker 11: Latino males specifically. And it's not lost on us that

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Speaker 11: Barack Obama started his series of events for Kamala Harris

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Speaker 11: last evening in Pittsburgh by speaking directly to young black men,

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Speaker 11: suggesting they might have a problem voting for a woman.

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Speaker 11: But look, that was a really different town hall than

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Speaker 11: one that you would see from Donald Trump. It was

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Speaker 11: very emotional. People were crying. They're talking about healthcare bills,

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Speaker 11: they're talking about lifestyle stuff. Where Donald Trump was speaking

436
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 11: to the Detroit Economic Club yesterday, a two hour stem

437
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 11: winder in which he relitigated the twenty twenty election, and

438
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 11: about an hour and a half in he did drop

439
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 11: a new idea. Guys, were less than a month away

440
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 11: from the election, and we're still hearing new policy proposals,

441
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 11: in this case a tax deduction for your car insurance payments, Paul.

442
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:20,959
Speaker 11: That might save you a little bit of money, might

443
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 11: save me a little bit of money.

444
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 7: It just feels like both candidates are just throwing things

445
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 7: out there that they feel are they own well, And

446
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 7: you know, what do you take? How about President Biden here?

447
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 7: What role do we expect him and maybe his administration

448
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 7: to play over the coming weeks? Here as we get

449
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 7: to November fifth.

450
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 11: You know, it's interesting he seems to be unleashed a

451
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 11: bit by not being at the top of the ticket.

452
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 11: His favorability ratings are up about five to ten points,

453
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 11: depending on the metric you're looking at. It's a pretty

454
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 11: significant move since he left the race, and it was

455
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 11: remarkable to see the President of the United States fact

456
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 11: checking Donald Trump from a presidential podium in the Roosevelt

457
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 11: Room the other night. When it comes to the misinformation

458
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,919
Speaker 11: around the storm, he's got the opportunity now to just

459
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 11: go after Donald Trump all he wants and let Kamala

460
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 11: Harris speak to more lofty ideas, although she's done some

461
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 11: of that herself. It's just an interesting role that he's

462
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 11: carving out for himself at the moment, not being in

463
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 11: the race anymore.

464
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 3: Joe, you're qualified more than anybody I know to answer this.

465
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 3: This came up a couple days ago on the old Republicans,

466
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 3: including Mitt Romney. Now I would have said Mitt Romney

467
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:28,399
Speaker 3: was fifty nine, maybe sixty six. I'm going to Romney

468
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 3: seventy seven. Okay, So like the old guard's getting older.

469
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 3: I don't know if you knew that, Joe, But my

470
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 3: answer is after Trump, where are the mitt Romneys of

471
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 3: the Republican Party. Do you have any clue on that question.

472
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 11: The mitt Romneys are retiring, even the young ones. Look

473
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 11: at the Mike Gallaghers of the world, who said, this

474
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 11: is clearly not my place here in Washington. Everyone in

475
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 11: the Republican Party wants to answer your question, Tom by

476
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 11: pointing to j D.

477
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 9: Vance and he is not Ronald.

478
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 11: Reagan'sublican here, but they see that as the future of

479
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 11: a populist Republican Party.

480
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 2: Tom.

481
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 11: The question is does Maga go back home after Donald

482
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 11: Trump leaves the picture, whether he serves another term or not.

483
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 3: Joe, the heart of the matter is in Belmont, Massachusetts,

484
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 3: there's one or two, there's like five Republicans I think left,

485
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 3: Joe Matthew. Are we talking about the great unspoken here,

486
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 3: which is finally a third party in America?

487
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,919
Speaker 9: Well, gosh, would you call it the Trump Party? I

488
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 9: don't know.

489
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 11: Maybe Republicans establishment Republicans want to make their own I

490
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 11: don't know that they're going to have a lot of

491
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 11: luck with that. He could get together with Bill Weld,

492
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 11: maybe they could go out to dinner in Belmont.

493
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,399
Speaker 9: But look, you're pointing to something that's important. When we

494
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 9: talk to Republicans.

495
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 11: Here on the air, they're not always reflecting the view

496
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 11: of MAGA. When you go to Seapack, they're not always

497
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 11: reflecting the view of Republicans.

498
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,120
Speaker 9: So maybe we do have three parties right now.

499
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 3: I mean, one day I was at Lockover's. Under that

500
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 3: portrait my grandmother would let me look short, there's Bill

501
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 3: Well dining with Mitt Romney.

502
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 9: It's gone.

503
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 4: It's just absolutely just like the Red Sox.

504
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 7: If they're gone, I don't know where that party went to, along.

505
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 9: With the six Coaches. Tom where they.

506
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 2: Go, Joe?

507
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 7: What happens you know, the day, the evening of the election,

508
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:11,360
Speaker 7: the day after that? Are we going to what are

509
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 7: we going to know? What aren't we going to know?

510
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 7: How long could this go on? Do you think what's

511
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 7: the thinking in DC?

512
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 11: Well, look it took till Saturday last time. The conventional

513
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 11: wisdom is if this is a Trump win, they call

514
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,959
Speaker 11: it that night. If this is a Kamala Harris win,

515
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 11: I'll meet you on Saturday, when we're still going to

516
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 11: be finishing counting the votes here. Look, Pennsylvania doesn't even

517
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 11: start counting the mail in ballast until that morning. You're

518
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 11: going to come into work with Tom on Wednesday, Kaylee

519
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 11: and I are still going to be there wondering how

520
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 11: the hell this thing is going to end, and we're

521
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 11: going to spend all week probably talking about it. Unless

522
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 11: this breaks one way or the other. We've got three

523
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 11: and a half weeks for something big to happen. Where's

524
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 11: the October surprise, guys?

525
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 3: I was supposed to be done in Jamaica east around

526
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 3: east of Montigo Bay, and they said, no, you got

527
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 3: to do the Joe Matthews schedule. I had to clear

528
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 3: my schedule from November two yep to like November Jamaica

529
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 3: month on the edge of Joe Matthew because.

530
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 9: So when are we allowed to go to the grill?

531
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 2: Yep?

532
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 9: Is that like Thanksgiving?

533
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 2: Now?

534
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 3: Thanksgiving? Yeah? Maybe maybe we'll have to see you on that.

535
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 3: Joe Matthew leading your coverage Your Balance of Power with

536
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 3: Kayley lines of Verse twelve noon, they do it again

537
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:15,400
Speaker 3: at five pm.

538
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

539
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each

540
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 2: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

541
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app tune in, and the Bloomberg Business App.

542
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

543
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal