WEBVTT - Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Has Two Options For Iran: Escalate… Or Capitulate + The End Of Eric Swalwell 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:02.040 This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you 0:00:02.080 --> 0:00:04.440 by Ethos and what Ethos does is it helps you 0:00:04.559 --> 0:00:06.880 find life insurance. Let me tell you why life insurance 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:09.360 bailed me out. My father died when I was sixteen. 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:11.680 We didn't have a lot of money when it happened, 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:14.640 and we were in a pretty tough financial spot after 0:00:14.800 --> 0:00:18.520 it happened. I'm an only child. Suddenly my mother's single, 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.360 single mother. She had a job, suddenly lost a job, 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:23.799 looking for another job, and we were struggling. You know, 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:26.720 my dad didn't leave us in the best financial situation, 0:00:27.040 --> 0:00:29.080 but he did make one purchase. 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Application times may vary 0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:42.400 and rates may vary. 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:46.360 Well. 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:49.600 Hello there, Happy Monday, and welcome to another episode of 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:50.520 the Check podcast. 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:51.840 I will be honest with you. 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:55.160 I sort of have a I have like seventeen thousand topics. 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:59.120 I feel like I should share a few a few 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:02.440 quick takes for you on or a few different ways 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:04.120 to be thinking about it, or at least share with 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:06.880 you how I how I'm thinking about it and see 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:09.360 how much that informs you. That's one thing I try 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:10.880 not to do is I'm not trying to tell you 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:13.399 what you think. I'm trying to sort of lay out, 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:19.680 lay out a structure to understand why whatever the situation 0:02:19.880 --> 0:02:22.640 is we're in. Look, there were two dominant stories that 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:24.680 I'm going to spend a lot of time on. Obviously, 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:28.880 the biggest one is Iran. Iran sort of is everything 0:02:29.000 --> 0:02:32.079 because of its massive impact on the global economy, which 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:34.960 of course means our economy, which of course means Campaign 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:39.680 twenty twenty six. But the Eric Swawell implosion out in 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:44.760 California also is a really really b FD, as Joe 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:50.600 Biden might whisper in the ear of Barack Obama, and 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:53.360 it's something that we need to spend a lot of 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:55.120 time on because it's actually two stories. 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:55.760 Right. 0:02:55.840 --> 0:02:59.680 One, it's going to trigger a bunch of show votes 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:02.520 in cong VERUS, so Congress can make itself feel better 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:10.080 by kicking out men behaving badly. But the other shakeup 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:13.160 is what's going to happen in California. I think what 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:15.440 we will we know for sure, and I think this 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:18.920 has now been more likely than we You know. I 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:21.560 just think now that the swallow thing trigger it. Here's 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:25.040 the bottom line. There's going to be another election for 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:29.560 California governor before twenty thirty. That I promise you. I 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:34.040 do not believe whoever wins this governor's race will be 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:39.240 able to survive the inevitable recall effort that is coming. 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:43.880 We are slip sliding into one of those Californy governor's races. 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:45.600 It's going to look a lot like two thousand and 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:49.680 two Gray Avis versus Bill Simon, where everybody hates their choices. 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:52.880 So those are the two dominant stories. 0:03:52.880 --> 0:03:55.480 A bunch of other stuff, Perkolating not going to leave 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:57.400 it on the cutting room floor. I want to want 0:03:57.440 --> 0:04:02.120 to get to a bunch of it. But let's get 0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:06.320 to Iran. So the ceasefire is, I guess, kind of intact, 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:10.280 but make no mistake, a naval blockade, which President Trump 0:04:10.480 --> 0:04:15.400 ordered on Sunday is an act of war. That's you know, 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:18.760 that is what it is. Now we are still at 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:20.919 war with Iran. I think Iran still at war with us. 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:25.080 The question is does either country break the ceasefire? Is 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:30.760 this considered breaking of the ceasefire? Will the Iranians respond or, 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:33.040 is this just part of a stalemate until we hit 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:35.440 the end of the two weeks or until we see 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:39.080 negotiations pick up, because one thing that it is important. 0:04:39.520 --> 0:04:43.400 Neither JD Evans for the American side nor the Iranians 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:48.240 indicated that they both behaved as if they knew there 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:50.680 would be another round of talks. They didn't say another 0:04:50.720 --> 0:04:54.240 round was coming, but you get the impression another. 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:55.239 Round is coming. 0:04:55.839 --> 0:05:02.320 Still, no deal, no framework, and no actual next step 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:06.520 just yet. But in some ways the blockade isn't It 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:10.320 is an acknowledgment by President Trump that the United States 0:05:10.360 --> 0:05:15.200 has less leverage in this deal than we want to admit. Certainly, 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:17.520 you know, the President doesn'tant tomit it. He keeps declaring victory. 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:20.560 And that's a huge problem. If you've won, then why 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:25.480 are you negotiating? If you've won, why are you potentially 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.400 floating the idea of a joint venture with Iran to 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:33.240 patrol and maybe even collect tolls for the straight of 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:36.240 horn moves and the tolls being used as reparations. Right, So, 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:42.359 this is why his rhetoric is not harmless. The stupid 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:45.320 rhetoric he makes un truth social, the dumb rhetoric where 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.280 he beats his checks, declares victory, or sort of the 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:52.600 secretary of the Fence who constantly loves to beat his 0:05:52.839 --> 0:05:57.720 chest and you know, I guess probably you know, choose 0:05:57.800 --> 0:06:00.680 on too much creatine before he does any of his 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:04.240 press briefings and declares these capital v victories. 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:09.120 Okay, then why are we negotiating? Right? So the bottom 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:11.720 line is we don't have leverage. They do. 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:15.440 They came out of this ceasefire with the single most 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:18.560 important piece of leverage, control of the Strait of hormones, 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:22.560 control of the global economy, and essentially control right now 0:06:22.880 --> 0:06:27.080 of the Trump presidency. So that's why Trump in some 0:06:27.160 --> 0:06:28.600 ways had no choice but to do this. 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:30.279 With the straight of hormones. 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:33.640 He's got to find and see if he can. 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:36.839 Get some leverage to force the Iranians to back off 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:41.920 a little bit. So the question is is there a 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:43.880 next step? Right? I think it. 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:50.600 The blockade is intended to get around back to the 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.480 table and to start having a conversation about the Strait 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:57.800 and about the nuclear deal. If there is no The 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:01.760 question though, is will the president escalate further if this 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:07.160 does not get the deal he's looking for? Does he 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:10.360 then send in ground troops? To didn't try to militarily 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:13.800 take control of the Straight and essentially operate the Straight 0:07:13.880 --> 0:07:21.200 in behalf of the world. Now there's all sort of 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:27.360 look there to Monday morning morning quarterback this war. Obviously, the. 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:30.080 The total. 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.920 Misunderstanding of the power of the Strait that the Iranians 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:37.880 would have is the initial blunder of this war. This 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:40.920 is the I swear to you, there's WMDs right this. 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:44.720 If you're going to say, if there was any like, 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:48.760 what is the failure of this administration for going into war? 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:54.640 It is underplaying and under realizing the leverage the Iranians 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:58.720 had with the Strait. And had they understood it from 0:07:58.760 --> 0:08:01.320 the beginning and they chose to do this, my guess 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:03.560 is they would have immediately tried to get control of 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:06.920 the Straight first. Then you start worrying about everything else. 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:12.960 But again, the problem here is the president surrounded himself 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:16.760 with sycophants, and even though we have learned that these 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:20.240 folks did not want to endorse his strategy here they 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:22.720 were afraid of telling him the truth. They were afraid 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:26.240 of telling They just danced around the edges of the 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:30.040 issues and allowed him to hear what he wanted. And 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:34.080 now we're in this potentially intractable situation that we're. 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:38.240 In where we may have no choice but escalate. 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:44.839 Because of the initial blunder at the beginning, or you're 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:46.559 gonna have to cut a deal with the Iranians that 0:08:46.720 --> 0:08:53.079 leaves the regime in power, legitimizes the regime, gives them 0:08:53.400 --> 0:09:00.720 acknowledges their control over the Strait, and essentially makes. 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:03.200 The hardliners like John Bolton are gonna wish they. 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:07.640 Had the Rand nuclear deal because the best thing that 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:14.040 Trump can get now is essentially naftaizing the Iran nuclear deal. 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:16.120 And what do I mean by that by naftaizing? 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:19.640 He said he hated NAFTA, so he ripped it up, 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:23.040 renegotiated the same deal with the Mexicans and the Canadians 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:27.280 and called it USMCA the United States, Mexican Canadian right accord. 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:27.640 Whatever. 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:33.800 See, there's there's no NAFTA. That's what's coming here. He's 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:37.319 gonna hope he can get the Obama nuclear deal. If 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:38.960 he's lucky, he can get. 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:40.760 The Obama Obama nuclear deal. 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:45.520 And that's if this this is the best, the best 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:50.520 version of this, you know. And again we can sit 0:09:50.559 --> 0:09:53.319 here and talk about all the all the problems going 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:56.360 into this thing, right, it was a mistake, and everybody 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:59.000 advised him. It was most people around him advised him 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.559 it was a mistake, outside of John Bolton and the 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:05.600 Gulf States and Israel. And this is a case where 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:09.719 the president consistently listens to outside voices rather than his 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:13.959 own military advisors and his own intelligence. He did it 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:15.920 all the time in his first term, and he's doing 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:19.400 it again in his second term. And that is an 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:21.480 issue that does not get enough attention. He trusts the 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:24.800 Israeli intelligence more than he trusts the US intelligence. The 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:27.040 Israeli said this was going to be easy regime James 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:28.839 was going to happen and the people were going to 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:32.120 rise up, And the CIA said that was bullshit. And 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:35.080 the CIA is fronted by somebody who is a Trumper, 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:38.560 John Ratcliffe, who wants to tell Trump what he wants 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:41.400 to hear, but can't bring himself to tell him bullshit. 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:45.439 But the President refuses to listen to his own, his 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:47.400 own folks on that front. 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:54.920 So the next look that I expect the markets to 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:55.560 panic a bit. 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:56.480 I mean I. 0:10:58.040 --> 0:11:01.280 Kind of think they've been under panicking. I'm a bit 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:04.760 hopeful that somehow you know, the resilience of the markets 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:06.440 in the past, well, it was like they were during 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:09.840 the pandemic, just like they have been during the Russia 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:10.560 Ukraine War. 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:13.079 That it's going to happen again. But the lack of 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:17.079 a clear resolution it is, you know, here's what we 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:17.600 do now. 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:22.760 President does not want to restart the war. There's no 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:25.599 doubt he probably regrets ever starting it, and considering the 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:29.719 situation he's in, you know, he could have you know, 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:33.120 in hindsight, right, should he have tried to squeeze him more, 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:36.400 should he have tried to find more ways to isolate Iran, 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:42.079 do more to it, to increase the stranglehold so that 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:45.120 the people would rise up and be angry at their leaders, 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:47.840 and instead, in a weird way, he's even united. 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:50.320 If you guys have. 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:55.640 Started following my friend, my Suzanne Kanpoor, She's her reporting 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:58.320 is indicated that they're you know, even those that don't 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:03.040 like this regime, uh now feel as if that it's 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:07.640 everybody versus America, which is a very dangerous place to 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:10.760 be and it's you really got to bungle this as 0:12:10.800 --> 0:12:13.840 badly as this administration's bungled this to put put ourselves 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:16.559 in this situation or we're basically begging around to come 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:19.960 to give us some deal so Trump can save face 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.439 and the and that's the thing. The Iranians know it. 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.000 They know they know it. 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:31.120 They know he can't handle the economic fallout from this. 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:35.120 They know it's politically beyond painful for him. They know 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.320 it screws up his trade negotiations with China next month, 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:43.200 It messes up all sorts of aspects of him. And look, 0:12:43.200 --> 0:12:47.240 the Iranians, they will negotiate, negotiate, negotiate, negotiate, and they're 0:12:47.240 --> 0:12:50.559 going to keep dragging this out. So the end of 0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:53.160 the day he had to find some leverage. We'll see 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:56.599 if doing a blockade of the Strait does that. But 0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:59.120 it is going to have you know, this is it's 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.839 going to be. It's probably going to be an ugly 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:06.240 day in the markets because now, whether we're questions, is 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:08.599 the straight open or not or now it's we know 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:14.079 it's not open, right, it is definitely closed. But I 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:16.720 go back to something right, the problem, Right, the president 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.400 has already declared victory and he continues to try to 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:22.719 declare victory. So if we've already won, why do we 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:26.120 have to keep doing all of these things? And This 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:28.360 is the position he's put himself in. Right, when you 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:33.400 define victory early then compromise later, starts to look like retreat. 0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:36.400 And right now the Iranians know it. They see it. 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.440 It looks like retreat because it is retreat. The president 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:41.319 can't afford to do this. 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:42.720 We didn't have we don't. 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:45.760 He can't political He does not have the political capital 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:49.839 to get even his own party to give him time 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:51.800 to put in ground troops to get control of the 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:55.679 straight and you know, he's just you know, and then 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:57.720 there's who he is, right, he doesn't have the patience 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.880 to do things methodic. He's always looking for a shortcut. 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:04.920 It's been it's defined his career. And the thing is 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:08.480 is that he's had so much success with shortcuts that 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:12.480 he forgets the failures with shortcuts. That also, right, he 0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:16.720 was able to become a star because of shortcuts, but bankruptcy. 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:20.520 He was still the only one of the few casino 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:23.000 operators to find a way to go bankrupt, oning the 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.680 casino because he was taking a shortcut on. 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:27.880 Competition and try to buy up all his competitors. 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:30.480 You know, he shortcuted his way into politics, but he 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:32.160 didn't really build a coalition. 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:36.640 In order to support him and use his political capital. 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:39.120 So when you take all these shortcuts, right, he's trying 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:41.600 to shortcut his way into getting an Iranian victory. He's 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:43.280 trying to shortcut his way and trying to get a 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:47.480 Venezuelan victory. But he's no longer promoting democracy anymore. And 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:50.000 America is not on the side of democratic freedom. We 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.000 are not on the side of democratic freedom in Venezuela 0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:56.440 right now, and we're doing a poor job of being 0:14:56.480 --> 0:15:01.440 on the side of freedom, democratic freedom and Iran. But 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:05.400 ultimately that's what you have to remember here. In conflicts 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.440 like this, the side that understands the other side better 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:10.600 usually has the advantage. President Trump does not understand this 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:14.280 Iranian regime. He thinks they're all just as transactional as 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:19.240 he is. He sees everybody through the himself. He assumes 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:23.000 everybody behaves the way that everybody's motivation is, what his 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:24.560 motivation is, power. 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:24.960 Money, etc. 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:31.360 And he just assumes those same motivations, and certainly loosely 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:36.400 the motivations are similar, and they may rhyme, but he 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:38.720 did not and does not. And you know, again, he 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:43.000 didn't bother to study, right, you know, he doesn't listen 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:46.000 to the experts who have studied the Iranians for decades, 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.000 not just weeks, months, or even years. 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:52.000 He doesn't listen to those experts. But here we are 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:57.320 in some ways, this is. 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.920 This is why Irana starts to look like our failed 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:08.080 military expeditions. Vietnam second Iraq war are the most are 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:11.920 the two biggest ones, and now this one because we 0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:18.480 succeeded militarily right sort of, but we didn't get our 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:22.880 strategic end goal. And even with Iraq we kind of 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:25.400 ended up with I guess what we wanted. There is 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.440 no Iraq with a nuclear program, so that's good. There's 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:31.840 no a rock with Saddam Hussein. But boy, was the 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:32.680 cost worth it? 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:34.920 Right? And I think to this day we're not even 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:41.600 sure that the cost was worth it. So bottom line is. 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:47.480 The good news is the talks are going to There's 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:50.560 going to be another round of talks. Both sides did 0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:53.480 not indicate that there was no room for more talks. 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:57.120 This was the first meeting was always inevitably going to 0:16:57.200 --> 0:16:59.200 be a feeling out meeting. But I think the one 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.000 thing that that President Trump ought to take away as 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.000 an understanding, and I think again his move to try 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:08.720 to blockade the Straight is in some ways any acknowledgment 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:12.560 of this, which is he didn't have enough leverage destroy 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:15.920 you know, and and you know right now, the Iranians 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:20.760 care about one thing, control of that Straight. So Trump 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:22.959 is right to try to go after the one thing 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:24.520 they care about in order to see if he can 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:30.680 regain some leverage here. But you know, the most likely 0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:34.800 endgame here is not a restart of the war. It 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:37.520 is not a sending ground troops in to get control 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:42.119 of the Straight. The most likely endgame here is the 0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:48.639 Iran nuclear deal two point zero. Donald Trump will call 0:17:48.720 --> 0:17:52.760 it then, you know USMCA of Nuclear Deals brand new. 0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:58.199 It won't do this, won't do that, but it'll give 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:02.280 them some money. And remember, you know why Iran doesn't 0:18:02.320 --> 0:18:05.800 want to give up the idea that it may never 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:12.040 pursue a nuclear weapon. Libya, right, the Libya example is 0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:17.240 always the reason Libya gave up its nuclear ambition and 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:21.639 regime change happened. North Korea has not given up his 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.879 nuclear ambition. And that Kim Jong n family, he just 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:28.159 named his daughter the latest air parent. If something happens 0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:32.600 to him, and we may end up with a fourth 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:36.280 generation of North Korean leaders all because they have. 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:42.400 A nuclear weapon. So it's not irrational how the Iranians 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:42.800 are thinking. 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:47.280 Right, this is a case, and there's no doubt the 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:49.359 United States the North Korea is a reason why to 0:18:49.440 --> 0:18:52.920 do whatever it takes to not let Iran get there 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:58.760 carrots and sticks. Trump has been all stick. He's going 0:18:58.840 --> 0:19:00.480 to have to now have to give some and he 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.000 ain't gonna like it, and he's gonna find out. Remember, 0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:09.280 we don't trust them and they don't trust us. And 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:13.440 in situations like this, whatever agreement you come into is 0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:16.119 a leap of faith. You're going to have to trust 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:19.600 somebody you don't trust. That's why you put in verifications 0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:22.359 and all sorts of things in there. But it is 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:25.399 in if you want a deal, it's inevitable you're going 0:19:25.480 --> 0:19:27.120 to get one where you have to give up something 0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:31.440 you don't like. And in that sense, Donald Trump, this 0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:33.240 is where he is a terrible deal maker. 0:19:33.560 --> 0:19:34.600 He has never been. 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:37.200 He does not believe in win win. He wants to 0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:41.640 get the best of somebody, and he thinks caving into 0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:44.600 any demand of the other side makes him look weak. 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:47.000 Well, you know what makes him look weak. 0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:57.160 Presiding over this economy. That's deteriorating by the hour. That's 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:02.840 something that makes you look weak. And in case you're 0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:06.960 wondering the economic hit, it's already happening. Consumer confidence is 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:11.159 now lower, lower than it was during the pandemic. We 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:14.040 are now in this We're lowest in the Michigan Index. 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:17.720 We're talking as bad as the seventies were. And remember 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:21.080 we now have a fertilizer issue, we've got food transport issues, 0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:22.399 and we got supply chain issues. 0:20:25.119 --> 0:20:25.760 So this is. 0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:31.480 Not going to get better anytime soon. This is and 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:34.600 we have not felt the worst parts of this. Every 0:20:34.680 --> 0:20:38.080 expert said, come about mid April, then all of a sudden, 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:40.600 it's going to feel like things went off a cliff. Well, 0:20:41.200 --> 0:20:44.120 this is the week where we hit mid April. Gas 0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:47.639 prices biggest one month spike since the sixties. Hiring is slowing, 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:55.600 wages are flattening. Uncertain economic future means companies start freezing. 0:20:55.359 --> 0:20:56.120 Everything they're doing. 0:20:56.680 --> 0:20:59.480 You pull back on new investments, you hold off on 0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.200 new high because you're not sure where this economy is going. 0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:06.520 And in this case, this is this is why the the. 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:11.520 The the bad shoots that we're seeing on the economy, 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:14.879 and as opposed to green shoots, uh, it could accelerate 0:21:15.080 --> 0:21:23.080 because of that situation. Before I leave the Iran issue here, 0:21:24.480 --> 0:21:27.119 I know Trump doesn't care about optics anymore, but I 0:21:27.200 --> 0:21:32.119 thought Marco Rubio might as talks are deteriorating with the 0:21:32.200 --> 0:21:35.200 war with Iran, which of course is going to probably 0:21:35.240 --> 0:21:39.159 could probably trigger a global recession. I'm glad to know 0:21:39.240 --> 0:21:41.080 that the commander in chief and the Secretary of State 0:21:41.160 --> 0:21:43.320 were hooping it up at a. 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:50.960 UFC match in Miami. Not the best look. I know. 0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:52.879 If I were a Republican on the ballot, I'd be like, 0:21:53.040 --> 0:21:56.040 does the President take any of this seriously? I mean, 0:21:56.160 --> 0:21:57.920 sometimes is it? You know, he just, you know, the 0:21:58.040 --> 0:22:01.480 celebrity parts of the presidency matter more to him than 0:22:01.520 --> 0:22:07.000 the actual job itself. And it's moments like Saturday night 0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:11.520 where he's whooping it up at at a UFC match 0:22:12.480 --> 0:22:15.120 while JD. Vance is negotiating in his behalf and having 0:22:15.160 --> 0:22:20.200 to walk away. And here's the thing, you know, Marco Rubio, 0:22:20.960 --> 0:22:23.840 you know, you know who would have been really critical 0:22:24.840 --> 0:22:28.119 of a secretary of State behaving this way, Senator Marco Rubio, 0:22:29.160 --> 0:22:32.080 if John Kerry at all had done anything even close 0:22:32.160 --> 0:22:35.240 to this. Gone to a Bruce Springsteen concert while there 0:22:35.359 --> 0:22:36.760 was a negotiation. 0:22:36.320 --> 0:22:38.159 On the Iran nuclear right. 0:22:38.240 --> 0:22:41.600 I promise you a Senator Marco Rubio would be beating 0:22:41.640 --> 0:22:42.399 his chest about it. 0:22:42.920 --> 0:22:44.679 You have one job. All this stuff. 0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:51.920 Deep down inside, he knows it's a bad look, you know, 0:22:52.400 --> 0:22:56.520 And with Rubio, and I wonder, Look, some people think 0:22:56.520 --> 0:22:58.199 I'm too tough on Ruby, and some of you think I. 0:22:58.280 --> 0:22:59.440 Give Rubio too much credit. 0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:01.920 I've heard that too. Oh you keep thinking, you know, 0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:08.680 when do you know? I just know he knows better, 0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:13.440 and everybody who knows him knows he knows better. And 0:23:13.560 --> 0:23:15.720 he's allowed himself to get caught up in this. And 0:23:15.800 --> 0:23:18.000 maybe it's a little celebrity. Maybe it's the middle class 0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:18.800 chip on his shoulder. 0:23:18.840 --> 0:23:22.600