Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single best Idea and
Speaker 1: my Valentine gift from the team was a spectacular set
Speaker 1: of conversations. Today we have a new thing with our
Speaker 1: calendar and the timing and all the good messages from
Speaker 1: our wonderful sponsors, where we have a very long what
Speaker 1: we call a block to begin off each hour. We
Speaker 1: had an hour strong with Katain Kaminsky of Alpha Simplex,
Speaker 1: brilliant on trend research. Another good hour with Lindsey Piegsa
Speaker 1: of stef O, my Economist of the Year last year.
Speaker 1: Doctor Piegsa has a stunning call, an outlier call on
Speaker 1: sub two percent real GDP out there with finally a
Speaker 1: diminished inflash and she gets nominal GDP top line animal
Speaker 1: spirit to the low four percent even under four percent region.
Speaker 1: I can't convey on Valentine's Day what a lonely call
Speaker 1: that is. But we were so lucky to start the
Speaker 1: show today with Edward Yard Denny. He is iconic, your
Speaker 1: Denny Research always in fevor to those of us older
Speaker 1: from CJ. Lawrence. He has called this the Roaring twenties.
Speaker 1: People are saying, yeah, sure it's out there somewhere. Ed
Speaker 1: Yard Denny says, on this Valentine's Day, the roaring twenties
Speaker 1: is now, you know.
Speaker 2: Like when you go over to Grandma's house and it's
Speaker 2: a long drive and the kids are in the back
Speaker 2: asking are we there yet? I think we're there. In
Speaker 2: terms of the so called nirvana norm for the economy,
Speaker 2: the dual mandate has been accomplished. We've got the unemployment
Speaker 2: rate at four percent, we've got real GDP rising up
Speaker 2: around three percent, and we got the inflation rate not
Speaker 2: quite a two percent, but some somewhere around two and
Speaker 2: a half to three percent. And so the Fed has
Speaker 2: accomplished what it wants to do, which leads me to
Speaker 2: conclude that there's really no reason for the Fed to
Speaker 2: lower interest rates anymore. Indeed, I don't really think that
Speaker 2: there was much reason for them to lower it by
Speaker 2: one hundred basis points. And my friend, the Friends of
Speaker 2: the bond, Vigelan, you seem to agree with me, because
Speaker 2: the bonios rose one hundred basis points. Is the FED
Speaker 2: lowered the Fed funds rate by one hundred basis points, near.
Speaker 1: All time highs ed Yard Denny and his Bullmarket to review.
Speaker 1: Yard Denny and the Great Technician rail fan, Kompora, a
Speaker 1: few others as well, calling for a bull market October,
Speaker 1: and I can't believe him saying this over two years ago,
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, and we make note of Benjamin Laidler
Speaker 1: and then at HSBC and now in London, ben Laidler
Speaker 1: really calling a bullmarket on Christmas Eve of two thousand
Speaker 1: and eighteen, which is forever ago. Whatever it is, it's
Speaker 1: a bullmarket. And we think Edyard Denny for that perspective.
Speaker 1: Of course, so much going on in internet national economics
Speaker 1: wrapped around tariffs and reciprocity, and your Denny on the tariffs.
Speaker 2: I'm very happy that they're using the word reciprocal rather
Speaker 2: than retaliatory. Retaliatory is what the smooth Holly tariff was.
Speaker 2: In June of nineteen thirty, we raised our tariffs without
Speaker 2: any concerns about the impact in other countries, and other
Speaker 2: countries retaliated and we had a world depression. And then
Speaker 2: to get out of that, we passed the Congress passed
Speaker 2: the Reciprocal Tariff Act, which basically the basic theme of
Speaker 2: that was, please take this power out of our hands.
Speaker 2: We're too dangerous with tariffs. Let the president do it well.
Speaker 2: You know, the president's doing it again right now. And
Speaker 2: I think the fact that they're calling it reciprocal, and
Speaker 2: the President said it yesterday, said look, we're just going
Speaker 2: to be fair and we're going to match their tariffs.
Speaker 2: But if they want to talk about it, lower it,
Speaker 2: we'll do that. So I think is all going to
Speaker 2: lead to lower tariffs, not higher tariffs. When all of
Speaker 2: a sudden done.
Speaker 1: Ed Yar Dunny, there were a constructive thought on what
Speaker 1: we're all focused on. The news flow absolutely extraordinary on
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