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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single best Idea and

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Speaker 1: my Valentine gift from the team was a spectacular set

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Speaker 1: of conversations. Today we have a new thing with our

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Speaker 1: calendar and the timing and all the good messages from

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Speaker 1: our wonderful sponsors, where we have a very long what

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Speaker 1: we call a block to begin off each hour. We

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Speaker 1: had an hour strong with Katain Kaminsky of Alpha Simplex,

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Speaker 1: brilliant on trend research. Another good hour with Lindsey Piegsa

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Speaker 1: of stef O, my Economist of the Year last year.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Piegsa has a stunning call, an outlier call on

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Speaker 1: sub two percent real GDP out there with finally a

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Speaker 1: diminished inflash and she gets nominal GDP top line animal

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Speaker 1: spirit to the low four percent even under four percent region.

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Speaker 1: I can't convey on Valentine's Day what a lonely call

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Speaker 1: that is. But we were so lucky to start the

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Speaker 1: show today with Edward Yard Denny. He is iconic, your

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Speaker 1: Denny Research always in fevor to those of us older

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Speaker 1: from CJ. Lawrence. He has called this the Roaring twenties.

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Speaker 1: People are saying, yeah, sure it's out there somewhere. Ed

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Speaker 1: Yard Denny says, on this Valentine's Day, the roaring twenties

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Speaker 1: is now, you know.

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Speaker 2: Like when you go over to Grandma's house and it's

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Speaker 2: a long drive and the kids are in the back

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Speaker 2: asking are we there yet? I think we're there. In

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Speaker 2: terms of the so called nirvana norm for the economy,

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Speaker 2: the dual mandate has been accomplished. We've got the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate at four percent, we've got real GDP rising up

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Speaker 2: around three percent, and we got the inflation rate not

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Speaker 2: quite a two percent, but some somewhere around two and

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Speaker 2: a half to three percent. And so the Fed has

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Speaker 2: accomplished what it wants to do, which leads me to

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Speaker 2: conclude that there's really no reason for the Fed to

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Speaker 2: lower interest rates anymore. Indeed, I don't really think that

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Speaker 2: there was much reason for them to lower it by

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Speaker 2: one hundred basis points. And my friend, the Friends of

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Speaker 2: the bond, Vigelan, you seem to agree with me, because

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Speaker 2: the bonios rose one hundred basis points. Is the FED

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Speaker 2: lowered the Fed funds rate by one hundred basis points, near.

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Speaker 1: All time highs ed Yard Denny and his Bullmarket to review.

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Speaker 1: Yard Denny and the Great Technician rail fan, Kompora, a

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Speaker 1: few others as well, calling for a bull market October,

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Speaker 1: and I can't believe him saying this over two years ago,

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, and we make note of Benjamin Laidler

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Speaker 1: and then at HSBC and now in London, ben Laidler

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Speaker 1: really calling a bullmarket on Christmas Eve of two thousand

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Speaker 1: and eighteen, which is forever ago. Whatever it is, it's

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Speaker 1: a bullmarket. And we think Edyard Denny for that perspective.

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Speaker 1: Of course, so much going on in internet national economics

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Speaker 1: wrapped around tariffs and reciprocity, and your Denny on the tariffs.

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Speaker 2: I'm very happy that they're using the word reciprocal rather

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Speaker 2: than retaliatory. Retaliatory is what the smooth Holly tariff was.

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Speaker 2: In June of nineteen thirty, we raised our tariffs without

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Speaker 2: any concerns about the impact in other countries, and other

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Speaker 2: countries retaliated and we had a world depression. And then

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Speaker 2: to get out of that, we passed the Congress passed

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Speaker 2: the Reciprocal Tariff Act, which basically the basic theme of

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Speaker 2: that was, please take this power out of our hands.

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Speaker 2: We're too dangerous with tariffs. Let the president do it well.

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Speaker 2: You know, the president's doing it again right now. And

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Speaker 2: I think the fact that they're calling it reciprocal, and

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Speaker 2: the President said it yesterday, said look, we're just going

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Speaker 2: to be fair and we're going to match their tariffs.

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Speaker 2: But if they want to talk about it, lower it,

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Speaker 2: we'll do that. So I think is all going to

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Speaker 2: lead to lower tariffs, not higher tariffs. When all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden done.

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Speaker 1: Ed Yar Dunny, there were a constructive thought on what

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Speaker 1: we're all focused on. The news flow absolutely extraordinary on

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Speaker 1: your commute on Apple CarPlay, Android Auto, Good Morning ninety

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Speaker 1: nine one FM in Washington, up to ninety two nine

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Speaker 1: FM in Boston. In our flagship station, Bloomberg eleven three

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Speaker 1: YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea.