1 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three 2 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network, 3 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I am Chad 4 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: Mellman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode. 5 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: We will review the faves five picks we put into 6 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: the contest di sect, why we left some games out, fascinating, 7 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: fascinating conversations Simon and I had in the noon hour 8 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: before we finalized our picks. We're gonna preview the lines 9 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: we like for week eight. I'm joined as always by 10 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 1: the mentioned co host companion Campadre BFF Professional Better Simed 11 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: Hunter Ella Simed. Hello, Chad, dude, a fascinating, fascinating day. 12 00:00:57,440 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: We're gonna break it down. But before the early games, 13 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 1: there was a run on betting the Niners. When they 14 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: were favored by one and a half, it got up 15 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: to two. It got up to two and a half 16 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: at a lot of books. The number also moved in 17 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: the contest right, So for anybody listening, you can make 18 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 1: contest picks anytime during the week, but if you decide 19 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 1: to make a change, you got to change all your numbers. 20 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 2: I have been hesitating on. 21 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 1: The Chiefs from a math perspective and a team health perspective. 22 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,400 Speaker 1: To me, it just didn't make sense to bet them 23 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: at less than the key number of two. Simon didn't care. 24 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: Simon was headstrong that betting against Patrick Mahomes in this spot. 25 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: It doesn't matter what anything says in the box score 26 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: or what any injuries are existing for the team. You 27 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: just bet Patrick Mahomes is a dog or a short favorite. 28 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 1: So on Sunday morning, we did something. 29 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 2: We never do. 30 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: We made a flurry of last second changes to our picks, 31 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: all in service of getting the Chiefs at plus two 32 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: and a half half. How did it impact us? Let's 33 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: find out. And by the way, if you believe you 34 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 1: could beat our picks this season, be our guest. Let 35 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 1: us pay you forty thousand dollars. Sign up at Favorites 36 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: dot actionnetwork dot com catch every episode of The Favorites 37 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget 38 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 1: to give us a like and subscribe to the Action 39 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 1: Network YouTube page. Reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by 40 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five and now new BET three sixty 41 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 1: five Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. When 42 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 1: you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code favorites, 43 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to 44 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets 45 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 1: can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more, 46 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: whatever the moment. 47 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 2: It's never ordinary. 48 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: At bet three sixty five, must be twenty one or 49 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, 50 00:02:56,480 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, 51 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler or one eight 52 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditions restrictions apply, all right. 53 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: So when we decided we wanted to get the Chiefs 54 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: in at plus two and a half, we had to 55 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: go with all the updated lines. As I mentioned before, 56 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: at that point, the Packers, who we had been leaning 57 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: towards all week, we're now at three and a half, 58 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: not the two and a half that we had lucked in. 59 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: We took out the packers. Great trade. Better to get 60 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: the number on the Chiefs. So and we will get 61 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: to this, so don't say anything yet, Simon, because my 62 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: bff here loved, loved, loved the Giants. He wanted them 63 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: in so bad he tried to get me to take them. 64 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: Unconvinced me. All week long. I had been saying, I 65 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 1: don't trust this team. I don't trust the team. Without 66 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: Andrew Thomas, zero packed protection, they can't score at home. 67 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: Simon insisted we will discuss. He will defend in a moment. 68 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: Here's a crazy stat from Evan that he gave on 69 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 1: convince me this morning. Catch it live on YouTube and 70 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. Heading into today, overall road 71 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: teams sixty one percent against the spread this season, second 72 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: best win percentage through seven weeks in the Wildcard era. 73 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: That's since nineteen ninety. Today, road teams against the spread 74 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: seven and three. Also, road favorites are undefeated since week 75 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 1: five fifteen and oh, road faves. 76 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 2: Since week five. 77 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: That is insane. Today they went to and oh about 78 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Eagles covered as road faves. We 79 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,919 Speaker 1: of course, were on the other side of both of 80 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:56,359 Speaker 1: those games. Let's start with Cincinnati and Cleveland. One of 81 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 1: those games. You know, Look, the way it started was 82 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 1: exactly as we expected it to start. Simon like wighs 83 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 1: good and bad. You know, the Bengals run the opening 84 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 1: kickback for a touchdown. The Browns defense was awesome. They 85 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 1: were in the Bengals backfield. They were stopping Joe Burrow 86 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: on third down, stopping on the run. The Bengals could 87 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: not score. The only thing was, of course, the missed 88 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 1: field goal by the Browns. As soon as that happened, 89 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: we knew it was terrible. 90 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 2: But then the Browns are driving. 91 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson doesn't look terrible, drops back, moves forward, ruptures 92 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: his achilles and I don't know if you saw this, 93 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: but watching it on slow motion, I've never seen what 94 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 1: the injury looks like. And they had the perfect angle 95 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 1: where the bot his heel just dropped like he steps. 96 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:57,840 Speaker 1: You see it snap. You see the heel drop when 97 00:05:57,839 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 1: it should not be dropping. 98 00:05:59,240 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 2: It was. 99 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 1: It was disconcerting and uncomfortable. I don't know what you 100 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: were thinking. 101 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,720 Speaker 3: Then it's the worst. It makes my skin crawl even 102 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 3: here and you talk about it. Yeah, it's one of 103 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 3: my biggest fears. I'm one of those people where it's 104 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:12,839 Speaker 3: like every time my leg's a little tight, I'm like, 105 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 3: oh my god, that is tearing my achilles. So now 106 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 3: you're right that that was probably his best drive of 107 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,479 Speaker 3: the season. Honestly, that's how bad he's been. He was 108 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 3: making good throws driving down the field, and yeah, got 109 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:25,919 Speaker 3: bit by the injury bug. 110 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:30,280 Speaker 2: It was. And I felt like we had a little 111 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 2: bit of a shot. 112 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 1: In that game because I thought they were playing really 113 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: well and their defense was lights out. It was I mean, 114 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: I'm i it was a super bummer. And then Dorian 115 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: Thompson Robinson comes in, makes a good sort of throw 116 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 1: to the outside shoulder of the receiver, gets the call 117 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: for pass interference. 118 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 2: They're on the one. 119 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: Of course, like they get called for a legal formation 120 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: or whatever, so they back it up, but they still 121 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: go for it, and then they missed the extra point. 122 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, and just we talked about before the show, when 123 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 3: he missed that fieldgal in the first half and they 124 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 3: get a kick return, you're already down ten now with 125 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 3: a dog Usually it's really tough to come back from that. 126 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 3: And you know, I don't know what happened, but they 127 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 3: made Jameis Winston their third quarterback and end up coming 128 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 3: at end of the game actually giving us a chance 129 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 3: at giving the back door still thank you, Jamis. But yeah, 130 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 3: just it's bad, like we're having this bad luck on 131 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 3: these home dogs. Things are just that's why you take 132 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 3: these dogs. So you have stupid bounces in football, and 133 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 3: they usually bounce the way of the dog, I mean 134 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 3: historically long term. Like I said, that's why you want 135 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 3: to make these bets. So the reason I want to 136 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 3: take Cleveland the same reason I want to take the Giants. 137 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 3: It's like, at worst I thought we would go one 138 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 3: on one. I thought we had a really good chance 139 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 3: of going to and out where it's like I like 140 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 3: these spots. We're getting good point value. Both these teams 141 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 3: coming in are a little bit overrated and a little 142 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 3: shakey offensively, and both teams are boom and busts. And 143 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 3: we saw that, like the Eagles had a couple of 144 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 3: big boom plays that worked out from same with Cincinnati. Right, 145 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 3: Cincinnati's offense, like you said, they didn't do much. Brown's 146 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 3: defense did pretty good. And you know, I was filing 147 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 3: pretty good going to half, even though we had lost Watson. 148 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 3: It was seven to six, like they just got to 149 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 3: keep this in arm's length and he had fortunately a 150 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 3: couple of bad turnovers. You know, twenty one to six 151 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 3: that Brown's bet was dead. 152 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:33,559 Speaker 1: Yeah, there was a key play. I think the Browns 153 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: were in field goal range, had a fourth and one, 154 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: and I said to my kid sitting next to me 155 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: on the couch, you got to run the RPO like 156 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: Dorian Thompson. Robinson had been having his way with running 157 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 1: the ball in that game. Why they drop him back? 158 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,079 Speaker 1: Why they don't give him the option to run? He's 159 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: so fast. The Bengals still had not been able to 160 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: really adjust for or a different kind of quarterback in 161 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: the game. You gotta go one freaking yard and you 162 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: got Nick chub like, let him make the play at 163 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: the point of contact with the running back. 164 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 2: You you're with me right like? It didn't make it 165 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 2: any Like. I'm an idiot. 166 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: I don't know anything about football, and I knew that 167 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: the most common play right now, that every running quarterback, 168 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: that every athletic quarterback, that even non athletic quarterbacks run, 169 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: is an r PO. And Kevin Stefanski, who I love, 170 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: does not call an RPO. 171 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 2: That's you. You deserve what you get in that spot. 172 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 3: That's how I view it. 173 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 2: Good. 174 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 1: I'm glad we agree mentioned the Giants. You insisted we 175 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 1: had the Giants plus three and a half. Yeah, all 176 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 1: week you tried to tempt me. 177 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,319 Speaker 2: You didn't. Bully, Definitely I. 178 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 3: Got you, though, I eventually got you come around the under. 179 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 1: But you did and and I appreciate that. I mean, 180 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 1: this game was dreadful to start, like, just sacks on 181 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: every single both. 182 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,200 Speaker 3: Sides are just That's why I thought it was going 183 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 3: to be just an ugly, sloppy like game. But the 184 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:12,680 Speaker 3: Giants quickly learned. The difference of the game was the 185 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 3: guy that got rid of Barkley. He was a game changer, right. 186 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 3: I think he had one hundred and sixty yards rushing. 187 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 2: More than that? 188 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:19,679 Speaker 3: Did he really look it up? 189 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 2: Right now? 190 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: He had more than that? I think he said a record. 191 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: He's already the leading rusher in the history of the Meadowlands. 192 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: I think he had like one hundred and seventy five 193 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 1: yards rushing. 194 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it was a bad bet. And like again, 195 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 3: it's a game where the things when we need to 196 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 3: bounce our way just didn't. I think it was a 197 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:43,079 Speaker 3: fourth and three, you know, Hurts throws a bomb. Aj 198 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 3: Browns was a touchdown on a fourth down, you know. 199 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 3: Daniel Jones finally puts a good drive together, they score 200 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 3: a touchdown, his first touchdown in six hundred days passing 201 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 3: in the meadowlands. They call it back on offensive pass interference. 202 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 3: It was just, yeah, the little thing that we need 203 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 3: to go ourway to not and yeah, I'm just getting 204 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 3: burned right now in these home divisional dogs, like I 205 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 3: love taking home dogs, and man, it is not coming around. 206 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley had one hundred and seventy six yards rushing, 207 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: and you the Giants' defense has been playing lights out. 208 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 1: And before the season, we all sort of thought that 209 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: the coverage unit for the Giants was going to be terrible. 210 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,680 Speaker 1: They haven't been. We didn't know what the pass rush 211 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: is going to be. They've been amazing, leading the league 212 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: in sacks. 213 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I. 214 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: Feel terrible for this Giants defensive unit because they are 215 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: playing lights out. They really are. They're playing amazing. They 216 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: are getting less than help from their office. They're getting 217 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 1: negative help. They're getting the opposite of help. They're getting 218 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: like the defense is actually made. The offense is making 219 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 1: it much much harder for them, right, and at some 220 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,200 Speaker 1: point they're gonna break, Like they they barely gave up 221 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 1: the big plays in the first half, there were two 222 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 1: of them to Saque and then like you meant mentioned 223 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: the fourth and three from Jalen Hurst to AJ Brown, 224 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 1: Like they're not going to be perfect, but the Giants 225 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: offense is terrible, can't do anything. It's so it's so frustrating, dude, 226 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 1: it's so frustrating. At one point in the middle of 227 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: the second quarter, the Giants had been sacked four times 228 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: and they had four touchdowns, I mean four first downs, 229 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: four first downs, not touchdowns. 230 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 3: Right right right, Yeah, again, it's it's a bad read, 231 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 3: but this is this is life betting ugly dogs. So 232 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 3: it's like, I agree with everything you said, but it's 233 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 3: just it's just brutal where we can't catch breaks right 234 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 3: now in these ugly dogs and it's like the only 235 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 3: thing hitting for us is chalk, Like we're vetting. You know, 236 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 3: normally I wouldn't loved that Lions line, but we just 237 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 3: kept talking about something was off with that line. So 238 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 3: it's just, you know, another week of the bets that 239 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 3: we usually win we lose, and the chalky bets we 240 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 3: make that we usually are a little scared to even make. 241 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 3: They're no brain or hitters right now, Like it's just 242 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 3: chalk is king and we kind of need to adjust 243 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 3: to it. So yeah, hopefully that ends with the Bucks 244 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 3: on Monday night. 245 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: Evan, if you could look this up real fast, I'd 246 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: love to know and just throw it in the chat. 247 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: How is the public doing this week? We know they 248 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,959 Speaker 1: crushed last week, Simon and I won with the public. 249 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 1: We're winning today again with the public. Detroit was a 250 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: public side, The Chiefs were a public side, The Bills 251 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: were a public side. I think those were three of 252 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: the bigger public sides this week. But I'd love to know, like, 253 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: are we headed for another regression? Is it two weeks 254 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 1: in a row that were sort of The public is 255 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:57,439 Speaker 1: cashing on a regular basis, much more than they had 256 00:13:57,480 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: been in the past. 257 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 2: Remember the first five. 258 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 1: Weeks of the year, the public had been doing historically bad, 259 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: so obviously there was going to be some regression, But 260 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: how much is too much at this point? Just to 261 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: close the book on the Giants, Daniel Jones threw for 262 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 1: ninety nine yards, which is less than four point seven 263 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 1: yards per attempt. They had one hundred and nineteen total 264 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: yards in the game, and they were sacked eight times 265 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: and Daniel Jones was pulled for Drew freaking lock. You 266 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: know it's a lock that your bet has lost when 267 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 1: Drew Locke enters the chap. Imagine being John Marra, the 268 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: owner of the Giants and the GM for the Giants, 269 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: knowing that the story of the summer was them on. 270 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 2: Whatever that's show is called that I can't remember, Hard Knocks, 271 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 2: Hard Knocks, and the. 272 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 1: Whole first couple episodes are about keeping Saquon, letting him go, 273 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 1: and the owner being like. 274 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 2: He's the most popular player. 275 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be really disappointed if he's in the division, 276 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 1: in the division, one hundred and seventy six touchdowns, domination 277 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: station makes. 278 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 2: The Eagles look healthy. 279 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 3: No, he's incredible. 280 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 1: Detroit plus one and a half at Minnesota, we had 281 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 1: it and this one was going so well for us 282 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 1: and for me, like we were all in on Detroit, 283 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: never waivered. 284 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 3: That's the way to win. 285 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 2: Man. 286 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 3: Now you're figuring it out. Now we're figuring it out. 287 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 3: That's outstanding, gentlemen. 288 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: Oh, I was on the over, never even close to 289 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 1: not covering. I was on Jared goff over twenty three 290 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: and a half completions. Crunner had given it out at 291 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: twenty two and a half. I barely missed the best 292 00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 1: of the number and look, after a sluggish start, I 293 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: thrilled because the Lions they came roaring back. 294 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 3: It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been 295 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 3: this excited about the Lions. Talk about restoring the roar. 296 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 1: Listen to him. 297 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 2: They were up twenty one to ten and a half. 298 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: Jared Goff continued his hot streak of not even throwing incompletions. 299 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: True story, Simon at halftime, I bet Jared Goff seventeen 300 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 1: to one to win MVP. 301 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 3: So go ahead and apologize to Detroit fans right now 302 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 3: because we are career enders this year. Chat everyone we 303 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 3: bet on dies. 304 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 2: I mean, look we had It's not true. 305 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 3: It's true we had. How bad luck we are, so 306 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 3: I wouldn't even said anything. You better be. 307 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 2: Careful getting the number one seed gets hurt. 308 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 3: Now everyone's gonna blame you. I'm gonna blame you. I'll 309 00:16:59,120 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 3: be honest. 310 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I know you're right. Listen, We're about transparency, and. 311 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 1: So we have to share what we do, both the 312 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,119 Speaker 1: good and the bad. Right we talked about the Panthers. 313 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 1: We didn't do anything with the Panthers this week. Good 314 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: for us, Thank god you know, but if we're going to. 315 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 2: Bet the Lions, and I'm going to. 316 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 3: Bet it was so tempting too. I don't know about you, 317 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 3: but it got up to ten. That was tempting. 318 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 2: Wow. Listen, we'll talk for a second. 319 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 1: At the end of this about me panic texting you 320 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 1: this morning when Mason Rudolph. 321 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,640 Speaker 3: I get it, you know, I know. We're just trying 322 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 3: to find winners wherever we fucking can chat. I get it. 323 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 2: Jesus all right. 324 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: So then the lines were up twenty at seventeen. Yeah, 325 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: and I don't know about you, you can tell me 326 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: what you think. The last couple of weeks, we've just 327 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 1: been snaked it right the Giant Vangels. 328 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 3: I was like, this is too easy. 329 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, it was not going to go our way. 330 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,359 Speaker 3: No Montgomery, as soon as he fumbled that when he 331 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,719 Speaker 3: punched that out perfectly and it skip bounced right up 332 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 3: to that, I think it was either cornerback of linebacker, 333 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 3: just perfect, right in full step. He takes it for 334 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 3: a touchdown. I was like, Okay, at least it's on 335 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 3: the one, right, as long as they don't get the 336 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 3: two point or me and Chad will somehow cover this number. 337 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 3: They didn't get to two, and all I think to 338 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,439 Speaker 3: myself was, please don't throw a pick six golf like, 339 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 3: because at the time, again we were staring at oh 340 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 3: and two and it's like, are we really about to 341 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 3: start another week? Ohen three? I know I can't handle 342 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,399 Speaker 3: Chad certainly cannot handle another oh and three start to 343 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 3: a week, and yeah, you're MVP. Jared goff Man took 344 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 3: us right down the field and Gibbs too. Gibbs, what 345 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 3: a great game by the kid. I mean, the second 346 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 3: year player. You know, the port has disappeared. Gibbs is 347 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 3: not in his second year, and that was a huge 348 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,159 Speaker 3: game by him, just because Montgomery had the injury. Then 349 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,479 Speaker 3: he has the fumble and it's like, we need this 350 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,399 Speaker 3: kid to have big plays for us, and he did. 351 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:58,400 Speaker 3: And you know, our fear was the Hutchinson thing would 352 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 3: be a big deal. It wasn't. It wasn't right. They 353 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 3: got pressure at times. I mean again, they're like you said, 354 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 3: they're up twenty one ten at one point. But at 355 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 3: the end of the game, that's when you really felt it, 356 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 3: where it's like they're not getting to him and he 357 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 3: is making completions right now. But we got kind of 358 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:21,159 Speaker 3: lucky too. That was a bad game overall by the 359 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 3: Vikings offense, so their defense kind of was up to 360 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 3: the task, and then it got away for them pretty 361 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:28,360 Speaker 3: quick once. Like we talked about, once the Lions get 362 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 3: it going, you can't stop it. That's why I mean, 363 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,400 Speaker 3: you love betting them right now. It's like it's all 364 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 3: clicking offensively. We didn't care they lost touchingson because offensively 365 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 3: it's all there. And we both agreed this number should 366 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,640 Speaker 3: have been you know, Detroit minus one and a half 367 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 3: minus two. The line was fishy, it was off. You know, 368 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 3: the books took a stand. We disagreed with it, and 369 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 3: that's that's nice when those ones come through, cause it's 370 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 3: like I bet that one heavy. I know you bet 371 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 3: it heavy, and it's like what am I not seeing here? Again? 372 00:19:58,040 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 3: I still couldn't get over that number got to two 373 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 3: and a half a day and a half. It was 374 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 3: just a weird week where we all know the Vikings 375 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 3: are pretty good, but they're not that good and even 376 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 3: in this game they need a couple of weird bounces 377 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 3: just to get it to be a close one. So 378 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 3: once again, this Vikings team, the values gonna come back around. 379 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 3: We're gonna betting on them again. But right now I 380 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 3: still think they're probably still overvalued heading into this next 381 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 3: week because that game was once again so close. They 382 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 3: didn't get blown out, they kept it close once again, 383 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 3: and it's gonna be interest see what their number is 384 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 3: this upcoming week. 385 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 1: Well, I was checking, and I'm glad I wanted to 386 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 1: talk about that. I will be very interested they're playing Tennessee. 387 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 2: The number is one of the biggest numbers we've. 388 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 1: Seen all season, and I do want to talk about 389 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 1: it when we get into that part of the show. 390 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: I'm glad you bring up Hutchinson because like that was 391 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,919 Speaker 1: sort of the note that I wanted to end on 392 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 1: when reviewing this game that I put in the script, 393 00:20:56,800 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 1: because when we needed aidd Hutchinson to get pressure, the 394 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 1: Vikings were able to sort of get down the field 395 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: and get that field goal because the line just could 396 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,160 Speaker 1: not get the pressure like he had the time at 397 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,360 Speaker 1: the end of the game. It was not his best game, 398 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 1: but he was able to make the throws he needed 399 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 1: to make because no one was getting to him. 400 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 2: So that is something to think about. 401 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: It's why Jared Goff will probably win MVP when they 402 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: go fifteen and or sixteen and one. However many games 403 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 1: they play now, But that's something to think about, for sure. Yeah, 404 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 1: for sure. Right now there is reporting that Kyle Shanahan 405 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: is worried Brandon Ayuk has an aco injury. Fuck Kansas 406 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 1: City plus two and a half at San Francisco. All 407 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 1: week long, we had been debating are we going to 408 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,200 Speaker 1: put in Green Bay? Are we going to put in 409 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 1: Kansas City? Are we going to put in Green Bay? 410 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: Are we going to put in Kansas City? As much 411 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: as you were adamant about the Giants, you were also 412 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: adamant about Kansas City, which I like was just having 413 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 1: a hard time wrapping my head around because I have 414 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: such belief in the Niners and because I've been so 415 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 1: worried about the lack of productivity from the Chiefs overall 416 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 1: on offense. 417 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 2: Dude, you were spot. 418 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 1: On standing oh for you, standing, oh for Patrick Mahomes 419 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 1: because it played exactly like you said it was going 420 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,880 Speaker 1: to And why we have to bet the Kansas City Chiefs. 421 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I just can't believe you haven't learned your lesson. 422 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 3: I thought forever you. I was humbled by that Ravens 423 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 3: Chiefs game last year in the playoffs. I told you 424 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 3: a million times there will never be a better team 425 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 3: and a better spot that could beat Mahomes with less talent, 426 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,359 Speaker 3: Like that was such a bad Mahomes team playing against 427 00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 3: the best, one of the best Raven teams I've ever 428 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 3: had on paper, and it was a lesson. It was 429 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 3: just like when he is a dog, you trust the 430 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,400 Speaker 3: number and then we mixed in that whole thing about 431 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 3: and you read off the bye week. I know it 432 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 3: sounds corny, but it's like the guy is automatic after 433 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 3: the bye week, especially as a dog. So this was 434 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 3: going to be no matter what. This is like, this 435 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 3: is like the Rams game. This is one of my 436 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 3: biggest bets of the year. Hammered it all in, didn't 437 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:24,919 Speaker 3: care this morning. I think it went up to two 438 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 3: and a half. Even better, Like when that's. 439 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,159 Speaker 1: A lie that you were a little nervous this morning. 440 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:32,920 Speaker 1: Like when it got up to two and a half, 441 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 1: you're like, I'm all in on this. 442 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 2: It's weird to me. There wasn't. 443 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,679 Speaker 1: I'm not saying there was any hesitation at all, but 444 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 1: you did make a note that it was weird. 445 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 3: I thought he was dumb enough to bet six figures 446 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 3: against my Homes here it's like, you know, I know 447 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 3: a couple of guys who came on the other side, 448 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 3: and it's like you're the same suckers from the Super 449 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,120 Speaker 3: Bowl that just we all have the same models. That's 450 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,199 Speaker 3: why I keep saying to people, anyone that has a 451 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 3: model would make the forty nine ers favorite in this spot. 452 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:02,840 Speaker 3: And I said it to you before the game. I 453 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 3: know they have the bad left tackle. I know their 454 00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 3: number one receiver Rice is out. Like everyone knows Isaiah 455 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 3: pa Checko's not playing everything. Everyone knows all the negatives 456 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,879 Speaker 3: with this Chiefs team. But I just kept saying, it 457 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 3: doesn't matter. It's just such a mismatch in pedigree and 458 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:22,400 Speaker 3: coaching and those situations where it's like Spags and Reid 459 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 3: after a bye week. I mean, you saw it, all 460 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 3: those stupid wacky plays they run. I mean, how many 461 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,359 Speaker 3: dumb catches did their tight end or third receiver have, 462 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 3: Like it just Reid is in his bag. It's incredible watching. 463 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,680 Speaker 3: And we got the Mahomes fluke right, the Mahomes running 464 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 3: up the sideline, Mahomes picking up the third down so easily. 465 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 3: A game where I was terrified when I was fourteen twelve, 466 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 3: because again I had a lot of money on it. 467 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,360 Speaker 3: It's like you felt the snowball right with the forty 468 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 3: nine ers. Everything was going their way. But Purdy, I 469 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:55,679 Speaker 3: mean one of the worst games I've ever seen him had. 470 00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 3: I mean this and that Ravens game, Like, yeah, you know, 471 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 3: two big games at home, and he kind of has melted, 472 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,040 Speaker 3: like buttering both those games. Like I think you had 473 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,680 Speaker 3: three picks in that Ravens game as well. He was 474 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 3: terrible today. So yeah, that's it's nice when it comes through. 475 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 3: But you know what makes me really happy, especially for 476 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 3: the show where it's like, you know we've had a 477 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,200 Speaker 3: grind this year, is when we give out that boost 478 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 3: and you know our fans, you know, the week before 479 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 3: we're giving them Carolina Panthers money line with the Jets 480 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 3: money line. It's nice in a week we can give 481 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 3: them the Lines money line and the Chiefs money line. 482 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 3: It's like, we're not always assholes people. We're not always 483 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 3: going to make you bet the worst teams and make 484 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 3: you hit your life. We are going to give you 485 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 3: a little bit of chalk. So yeah, it's a nice hit. 486 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 3: And you came around on it, like I saw in 487 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 3: the app you bet the Chiefs. Yeah, before kickoffs, So 488 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 3: it's like I knew i'd break you eventually. It's just 489 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 3: the the trends were overwhelming, and then the matchup when 490 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 3: you really thought about it, it's just like, this is 491 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 3: a nice, nice play to this Chiefs team, But I 492 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 3: can't wait for next week because this is a cell 493 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 3: high as we can get on this Chiefs team. 494 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna get that opportunity. And I wrote that. 495 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,920 Speaker 1: I wrote that line down to talk about I want 496 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: to give three examples that when Patrick Mahomes made these plays, 497 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 1: I thought to myself, I had your voice in my head. 498 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: This is why we bet Patrick Mahomes. This is making 499 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,080 Speaker 1: your own luck. This is why things go his way. 500 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:23,399 Speaker 1: At the end of the game, nine minutes left in 501 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 1: the first half, Kansas City up seven to three, just 502 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,160 Speaker 1: outside the red zone. It's a third and medium. He's 503 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: pressured in the pocket, sidesteps the sack like does a 504 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 1: backhanded flip to an open receiver for a first down. 505 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: Three plays later, they go up fourteen to three, second 506 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,680 Speaker 1: and seven from the thirty seven. Towards the end of 507 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 1: the third, he breaks contain runs for the first fakes 508 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,639 Speaker 1: a pass. He is far beyond the line of scrimmage, 509 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:58,440 Speaker 1: fakes it, the tackler is dumbfounded, he runs past him 510 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 1: and then no one tackles him against third three yards. 511 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 2: That's going to be the play of the year. 512 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,960 Speaker 1: And that's why stupid media suckers are going to vote 513 00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 1: for him for MVP instead of Jared Goff because of 514 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 1: that stupid play. And then here's why we hate betting 515 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,440 Speaker 1: against Mahomes. It's third and eight with just under five. 516 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 1: They're bleeding the clock. He steps up to avoid the sack. 517 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 1: He has guys hanging on his waist, makes a perfect 518 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 1: nine yard pass to convert the first down. Kevin Burkhart, 519 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 1: who was announcing the game, it says out loud, you 520 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 1: just have to laugh because there's there's nothing you can 521 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,879 Speaker 1: do about it. And I'm with you, I am converted. 522 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 1: That is why you have to do it the. 523 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:41,439 Speaker 3: Rest of your life though. That's what I'm saying, like 524 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 3: you need to just anytime he's a dog, even if 525 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 3: we fucking hate the spot, we just have to say 526 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 3: to ourselves long term until proven otherwise, like if he 527 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,120 Speaker 3: loses four straight, that's what it would take to get 528 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 3: me off betting Mahomes as an underdog because it's so 529 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 3: rare and every time he does it, even today, right, 530 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 3: it was eighty percent of the tickets or something like that, 531 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 3: Evan told us. Unconvinced me didn't matter, like it don't matter. 532 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 3: The public note the secret's out. So yeah, that that 533 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,639 Speaker 3: was fun. And like I said, it's a game we 534 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,159 Speaker 3: desperately needed. We needed to be two and two here 535 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 3: tonight on the show. So thank god it came through. 536 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,359 Speaker 1: Public against the spread in the past two weeks so 537 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 1: far nineteen five and one. 538 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,359 Speaker 3: Fuck crazy, we're surviving this right now. We should be 539 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 3: getting zero for five to one for four weeks. 540 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,480 Speaker 1: We should but like I don't want to, like I 541 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 1: honestly like I don't want to praise ourselves. We don't 542 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 1: deserve it in any way. But I will say, like, 543 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 1: we do think a lot about this, and we don't 544 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 1: just blindly make the bets, like we look for the 545 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:50,960 Speaker 1: spots and we know chalk can win. You've said chalk 546 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 1: can win. Like we're we're trying to be flexible and 547 00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 1: adapt We're not just trying to be people who do 548 00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 1: the same thing over and over because the trends say it, 549 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,480 Speaker 1: like that's what we talk about every week. You don't 550 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,720 Speaker 1: just bet the trend. We love the numbers that Evan 551 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,560 Speaker 1: gives us, but they have to be part of an 552 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 1: overall philosophy in which you're paying attention to the situation. 553 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 1: You're paying attention to the matchups on the field, you're 554 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: paying attention to what you're seeing with your eyes, and 555 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 1: then the trends helped to sort of inform that they do. 556 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 3: I view it as like we talk any more in 557 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 3: my whole job. I viewed as just trying to get 558 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 3: you not to step in a bunch of shit, and like, 559 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 3: that's that's hard because I have to try to I 560 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:31,960 Speaker 3: need someone out there to get me now the step 561 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 3: of my own shit, like the Giants. But like that 562 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 3: green Bay number, it stanked to me all week. I 563 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 3: hate it all week, and I'm like, the minute that 564 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 3: game kicked off, I was like, thank fucking god, we 565 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,120 Speaker 3: don't have this green Bay minus two and a half. 566 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,680 Speaker 3: Like you just knew it was gonna either land on 567 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 3: the two or somehow Houston was gonna win. And of 568 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:53,280 Speaker 3: course they landed either on one or two. And Sam 569 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 3: goes for us, dodging that Tennessee bullet because it's like 570 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 3: everything you said is true, right, that's a huge number 571 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,800 Speaker 3: for that Bills team, and you know you're getting Mason 572 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 3: Rudolph at a will Levis price. Apparently they're both will Levis. 573 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,800 Speaker 3: Don't matter if you switch the name on the back 574 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 3: of the jersey, They're just both equally terrible. So it 575 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 3: was a week where I feel fortunate to be tune 576 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 3: and two because there was just a lot of games 577 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 3: that were tempting and we luckily stayed away from them. 578 00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,120 Speaker 3: The only big miss for us is what I think 579 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 3: you agree on is just the Seahawks. We both liked 580 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 3: it three and a half. Yeah, I gave out the 581 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 3: money line. It was just a nice spot and a 582 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 3: nice team. I like, you know, my fear with that 583 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 3: one was just not that their defense is horrible, but 584 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,479 Speaker 3: I just have a lot of questions about the Seahawks 585 00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 3: defense coming to this game, and they stepped up right. 586 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 3: They played really well. So yeah, kudos to the Seahawks 587 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 3: and anyone that took him a three and a half. 588 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 3: That was a really nice number. It was never a 589 00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:48,400 Speaker 3: sweat stuck. 590 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,440 Speaker 1: You had him in the Sunday six pack for the 591 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 1: Action Network podcast, and I agree. I wish we had 592 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 1: talked about it this morning for even a second, like 593 00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 1: we were both just mean. 594 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 3: You mentioned it and I was like, I like it, 595 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 3: but I liked unfortunately, like the fucking Giants words sucks. 596 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 1: You know, It's like it was the like the Falcons 597 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 1: have been so lucky this year they were due against 598 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 1: a good team to regress a little bit. Speaking of 599 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:13,080 Speaker 1: the public, you know, we like the Jets. 600 00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:14,120 Speaker 2: We talked about it all week. 601 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 1: They are definitely the public side, although they also the 602 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 1: sharp side. Uh, tomorrow night we have Tampa Bay. We're 603 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 1: two and two right now on the contest. Tampa Bay 604 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:30,200 Speaker 1: is not the public side at all. In fact, like 605 00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,440 Speaker 1: this number is going up, there are some places where 606 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,120 Speaker 1: it's for it's been sitting at three and a half 607 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 1: a week. I will say it makes me a little 608 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:44,200 Speaker 1: nervous right now because Mike Evans we expect him to play. 609 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 1: I saw in the latest injury report Vitevea is now questionable. 610 00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,800 Speaker 1: One of the main reasons we liked that game was 611 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,520 Speaker 1: him able to control the line of scrimmage. 612 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,320 Speaker 3: So, I mean, if we really wanted to, we could 613 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,040 Speaker 3: switch it out technically for Arizona Vida Vey's out, but 614 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 3: I don't know. I already can sell see us hating 615 00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 3: ourselves for making that change. 616 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:06,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna be UPSETI their way because either we're 617 00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 1: going to keep it and lose, or we change it 618 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 1: out and they win. Yeah, there's no way, there's no way. 619 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 1: If we change it out, the Bucks don't cover. It's like, yeah, 620 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:17,600 Speaker 1: we might as well put the mortgage on the Bucks 621 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 1: covering if we decide to change it out. We need 622 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 1: to look ahead to week eight. Couple of really interesting lines. 623 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 1: First one up, let's talk about Kansas City ten point 624 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:36,959 Speaker 1: favorites right now on the road at Las Vegas raiders. 625 00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 1: What are we gonna do here? We got a we 626 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,720 Speaker 1: got we gotta buck the trend of road favorites. We 627 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 1: gotta buck the trend of road teams covering. We gotta 628 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:48,760 Speaker 1: get ourselves to sack. 629 00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 3: Up divisional road favorites. 630 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, all of it. It sucks a double digit favorite. 631 00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,360 Speaker 3: No, it's it's the brutal We have no choice. That's 632 00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,880 Speaker 3: what like again is tough about the show where it's like, 633 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,120 Speaker 3: this is how we win long term. We have to 634 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 3: stick to it. We'd be fools not to take it. 635 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 3: It's an insane number. And you know again, shoot on 636 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,280 Speaker 3: Minshew all you want people he was in the game 637 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 3: again at the end of the game. This this this game, 638 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:18,240 Speaker 3: like they almost upset the Rams, and it's just, yeah, 639 00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 3: he has one play where you are like, this is 640 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 3: the worst quarterback in the league, and then you'll have 641 00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:23,600 Speaker 3: a couple of throws where it's like, Okay, this is 642 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:28,240 Speaker 3: why he's a stable backup. So it's another spot where 643 00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:31,240 Speaker 3: if it's the if it's Minshew in the ten, I 644 00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 3: take it. If it's an O'Connell, I don't, but he 645 00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,719 Speaker 3: might have broken his thumb, so it's unlikely it's going 646 00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 3: to be him. So you know, we love the Raiders 647 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,520 Speaker 3: matchup historically against the Chiefs that you just always play 648 00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:48,000 Speaker 3: them tough and it's disgusting. But this is going to 649 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,520 Speaker 3: be around money, money line round, Robin, I can tell 650 00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 3: you that much. Like it's just long term. I'm sure 651 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,040 Speaker 3: Evan will have some stats for us come Tuesday, you know, 652 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,000 Speaker 3: in his breakdown. But in my lifetime, there's only one 653 00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 3: team in this division that beats Mahomes and it's the Raiders. 654 00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:05,800 Speaker 3: And I think it's might have happened three times, but 655 00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:07,800 Speaker 3: each of those times I've gotten like a plus three 656 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 3: hundred plus four hundred on the Raiders money line. So yeah, 657 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,520 Speaker 3: this is a gross number, but like you just said, 658 00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 3: I'm taking it now. It can only it only goes down, right, 659 00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,120 Speaker 3: There's no way this goes higher. Just the way the 660 00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,520 Speaker 3: books have been this year, it's tough to see this 661 00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:22,800 Speaker 3: getting up to eleven or twelve. 662 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,399 Speaker 1: The other game we got to talk about at least 663 00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,000 Speaker 1: for a second. You just mentioned Detroit twelve and a 664 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,120 Speaker 1: half point favorite at home against Tennessee. 665 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,080 Speaker 3: I mean, it's a shocking to say that's still too 666 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:40,960 Speaker 3: low to me. Really, Yeah, the way that Lion's offense 667 00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 3: is playing, get us the thirteen fourteen, that's where this 668 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,799 Speaker 3: should be. The Titans are fucking horrible. They were up 669 00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 3: ten to nothing on the bill, Yeah, yeah, and then 670 00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:56,520 Speaker 3: just got rolled. And you know that's that's the hard part, 671 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 3: chat is we're trying to bet on teams that we 672 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 3: don't think quit. Like there's a couple of games you 673 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:04,520 Speaker 3: see see guys making them like that that Giants Eagles game. 674 00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 3: A couple of Giants players made business decisions like they 675 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,560 Speaker 3: could have made hits on guys and they pull up 676 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,399 Speaker 3: or they don't make the tackle. Where it's like that's 677 00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 3: something I'm always in the lookout for because that just 678 00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,000 Speaker 3: shows the view of the team right now. And the 679 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,359 Speaker 3: Titans made a lot of business decision against that Bills team. 680 00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 3: So yeah, I would, honestly, wait, I think that one 681 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,560 Speaker 3: keeps going up and just detroitsa juggernaut right now in Tennessee. 682 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 3: You know, they're like the Patriots of they're one of 683 00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:28,120 Speaker 3: the worst teams in football. 684 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:34,160 Speaker 1: Raybon, it's being reported that Chris Raybon just put Cowboys 685 00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 1: plus six and a half into the app. They're at 686 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:41,320 Speaker 1: the Niners. That number I'm seeing in the app is 687 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:42,560 Speaker 1: down to five and a half. I don't know if 688 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:43,640 Speaker 1: you have a strong opinion here. 689 00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, it's six and a half. It's it's 690 00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,239 Speaker 3: it's a great number. But I'm with you, I don't. 691 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 3: I don't know where that number exists. I'm trying to 692 00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,000 Speaker 3: see and if any books have it still now. I 693 00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,080 Speaker 3: think he might have got the Early Line movie, because 694 00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:00,799 Speaker 3: I'm seeing almost every book now, You're right, is down 695 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:01,239 Speaker 3: to five and a. 696 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:02,320 Speaker 2: Half, five and a half. 697 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,800 Speaker 3: It's a key number, like that's six. Six is a 698 00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:05,239 Speaker 3: big deal. 699 00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:07,440 Speaker 1: A couple other that are interesting to me real quickly, 700 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 1: I want to run through before we get to yours. 701 00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,239 Speaker 2: Sure, the Bears. 702 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,719 Speaker 1: Are one and a half point underdogs at the Commanders 703 00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:16,960 Speaker 1: right now, coming off a bye. It's weird to me 704 00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,760 Speaker 1: they're still dogs, not knowing the Jade and Daniels situation. 705 00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I one of my first bets it was actually two, 706 00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 3: so it is moving a little bit that it's down 707 00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,759 Speaker 3: to one and a half. I just I can see 708 00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:32,720 Speaker 3: that easily flipping right. Yeah to making the Bears a favorite, 709 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,719 Speaker 3: which is a little scary having him on the road 710 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:40,960 Speaker 3: is a favorite. But that, you know, whatever you want 711 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:45,480 Speaker 3: to say about that win today against Carolina. They're a 712 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,440 Speaker 3: good team, but it's like Mariota at one point had 713 00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,560 Speaker 3: like three yards passing, They're up twenty nothing right Like 714 00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:53,839 Speaker 3: that was just what can we really take away from 715 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 3: that game and from Mariota. My view of Mariota is 716 00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,840 Speaker 3: he's a bad quarterback and your guys are looking for 717 00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,600 Speaker 3: Your guys defense is really good, like the Bears as 718 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,560 Speaker 3: good as you know Williams is playing, the offense has 719 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:09,040 Speaker 3: been playing. I still think the biggest mainstead of that 720 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,360 Speaker 3: team right now the Bears is your guys defense. So 721 00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:13,680 Speaker 3: I'm with you on that one. I'd grabbed that now 722 00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:15,080 Speaker 3: plus one and a half you. 723 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,239 Speaker 1: Know what's interesting to me, Mariota. When he came in, 724 00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:21,960 Speaker 1: they showed his career stats. I was shocked that he 725 00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:26,600 Speaker 1: had twenty or thirty more touchdown passes in his career. 726 00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,680 Speaker 1: Then he has interceptions like I've always thought. 727 00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 2: He was so bad that. 728 00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:38,319 Speaker 1: Oh wow, the Bears commanders is now I think off 729 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,880 Speaker 1: the board because I'm not Oh, I'm not getting it 730 00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:45,400 Speaker 1: anywhere right now. And I wonder if that's because of 731 00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:47,200 Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels. 732 00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,880 Speaker 3: Has to be because that Nuver didn't sound right anyway. 733 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,680 Speaker 3: I just don't. I can't see them being a favorite 734 00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:55,720 Speaker 3: against this Bears team coming off of bye week. 735 00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:57,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, I was trying to make the bet as you 736 00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 1: were talking, and it's off the board. 737 00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:06,120 Speaker 2: Seattle plus three at home against Buffalo. 738 00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:11,520 Speaker 3: I don't know what to do with this number. 739 00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:13,279 Speaker 2: What are you talking about it? 740 00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:17,040 Speaker 1: I'm pinpointing numbers that like look a little bit interesting 741 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,960 Speaker 1: to me. I don't think Buffalo is should be a 742 00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,000 Speaker 1: three point favorite on the road against Seattle yet. 743 00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,439 Speaker 3: Me either. But at the same time, it makes sense 744 00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:27,560 Speaker 3: because it's Josh Allen Verstino Smith, right. 745 00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, but Gino Smith is still a very accurate passer 746 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,200 Speaker 1: who's going against a defense that has holes in the middle. 747 00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:39,560 Speaker 3: I agree, So you know, I'll take the plus three 748 00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,840 Speaker 3: on Seattle. But this is easily a position I could 749 00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:45,400 Speaker 3: maybe change come Tuesday or Thursday, Like if this is 750 00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,840 Speaker 3: down to two minus two and a half with the Bills, 751 00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,200 Speaker 3: I could be tempted here, But you're right, right now, 752 00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,600 Speaker 3: the right number to take is Seattle plus three, Like 753 00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,520 Speaker 3: that's that's a good number and an inflated number with 754 00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:01,279 Speaker 3: what you just said. This again, my hesitation here is 755 00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,320 Speaker 3: the Seattle defense. Chat. They've just been so bad against 756 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,880 Speaker 3: comparable offenses, and I know they stepped up today, but 757 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,000 Speaker 3: I felt like a lot of that was self inflicted 758 00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,880 Speaker 3: wounds by the Atlanta team. And you're right though, like 759 00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:16,960 Speaker 3: this is a nice cell high spot right on this 760 00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:21,560 Speaker 3: Bills team, such a huge win. We've seen them struggle 761 00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:25,640 Speaker 3: as well against comparable offenses. So this is tough, but 762 00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:27,279 Speaker 3: I'll take the plus three with you right now. This 763 00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:28,600 Speaker 3: is easily a game I could flip on. 764 00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,400 Speaker 2: I did find while you were talking. 765 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,880 Speaker 1: I did find the Bears plus one and a half 766 00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,360 Speaker 1: at one book still available. It was down at the 767 00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:42,600 Speaker 1: two other books here in Connecticut, last one and this 768 00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:46,879 Speaker 1: line is already moving Cincinnati minus two versus Philly at home. 769 00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:55,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, another game where it's two teams I just don't 770 00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 3: trust right now. Offensively, I'll probably end up on just 771 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:02,640 Speaker 3: taking the under. But I would say you're if you're thinking, 772 00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:07,799 Speaker 3: here're the smart side is Cincinnati. So that's fair, Like, 773 00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,040 Speaker 3: that's probably a good number against this Eagles team that 774 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,520 Speaker 3: you know, they're just they're not as good as their 775 00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:16,600 Speaker 3: record states right now. That is an interesting number though, 776 00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,600 Speaker 3: just hang in the two like they're literally just letting 777 00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:21,320 Speaker 3: us dictate where they're going to move this number. 778 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,000 Speaker 2: That's that's what surprised me. 779 00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,600 Speaker 3: And so you don't see many two So I'll tell 780 00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:28,680 Speaker 3: you that much. You don't see many. You don't see 781 00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:29,879 Speaker 3: a lot of twos on Sunday night. 782 00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:33,839 Speaker 2: No, all right, So. 783 00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:37,480 Speaker 3: You want to get a game that immediately jumps out 784 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,600 Speaker 3: to me, Colts plus six and a half against Houston, 785 00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,200 Speaker 3: Like again, I'm going to rush to bed it because 786 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:46,880 Speaker 3: I do think it'll go up because Anthony Rusians not 787 00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,879 Speaker 3: played well. You know, people just think that Colts team 788 00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,520 Speaker 3: a little fraud in Houston played really well, probably should 789 00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,960 Speaker 3: have won that game. I just I don't know, there's 790 00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:58,759 Speaker 3: something about c J when he's a big favorite like this, 791 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:00,440 Speaker 3: I always kind of want to take the other like 792 00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,239 Speaker 3: he just has teams play it close, and they kind 793 00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,120 Speaker 3: of keep teams in these games. So that's the number 794 00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,600 Speaker 3: that jumped out to me. It's like, I'll be patient. 795 00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:10,640 Speaker 3: I'll grab it now just because it's six and a half, 796 00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:12,000 Speaker 3: but I won't put a lot on it because it's 797 00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:15,560 Speaker 3: like this only goes up right teasers, parlays. Everything's gonna 798 00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,239 Speaker 3: coming on this Houston team. Yeah, I'm hoping I get 799 00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:22,320 Speaker 3: up to a seven. I'm taking it just in case 800 00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:26,640 Speaker 3: I'm missing something here. But you can get the Packers 801 00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:28,880 Speaker 3: minus five right now against the Jaguars. 802 00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:31,560 Speaker 2: That's weird. 803 00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,080 Speaker 3: In what world? The Jaguars are horrible? I don't care. 804 00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:38,320 Speaker 3: I mean, okay, they just blew out a team in England. 805 00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:40,000 Speaker 3: I know Evan's gonna have the stats too about these 806 00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:41,840 Speaker 3: teams not that don't take a bye week and they 807 00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,680 Speaker 3: just come back from anything play the following week in 808 00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:45,840 Speaker 3: the one PM games. 809 00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:50,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, that number four and a half. 810 00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:53,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, so like that's I told you, I'll take some 811 00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:55,280 Speaker 3: chalk every now and then. That's a nice chalk spot. 812 00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:56,640 Speaker 3: It feels like this is the week. 813 00:41:57,000 --> 00:41:58,480 Speaker 2: Why would that number go down. 814 00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,720 Speaker 3: I mean, honestly, there could be a bunch of different 815 00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:04,560 Speaker 3: reasons where maybe people think they saw some of the 816 00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:09,960 Speaker 3: Jaguars today like winning that game, But I'm totally selling them. 817 00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,080 Speaker 3: I just think they're such a bad, poorly coach team 818 00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:15,480 Speaker 3: right now. I can't see it. So I'll definitely grab 819 00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:16,799 Speaker 3: the minus four and a half. 820 00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,359 Speaker 2: Cut anyone else. 821 00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:23,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the last one that really jumped out 822 00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:26,120 Speaker 3: to me there, just of like, Okay, is this a 823 00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:31,560 Speaker 3: line that you know I'm missing something here. It's because 824 00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:33,600 Speaker 3: they think because two is coming back, it's a huge 825 00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,120 Speaker 3: boost from Miami. You can get Cardinals plus two and 826 00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:36,959 Speaker 3: a half right now. 827 00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,200 Speaker 2: I saw that, and to me, it's all about Tua. 828 00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:44,160 Speaker 3: I know, I think there's been no guarantee he's going 829 00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:47,400 Speaker 3: to be back, so it's like an easy number to 830 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:48,960 Speaker 3: take now if we need to, we can buy to 831 00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:54,560 Speaker 3: have for a position later. But watching the Miami team today, 832 00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,400 Speaker 3: they should have won that game in ten different ways 833 00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:58,880 Speaker 3: and they just couldn't do it because they just have 834 00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:01,160 Speaker 3: nothing to keep you position. I mean, I think Tyreek 835 00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:05,040 Speaker 3: Hill had ten yards receiving. Like it's just all bad 836 00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,920 Speaker 3: right now for that offense. Nothing's right and you know, 837 00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,440 Speaker 3: even if two it comes back, I mean, how much 838 00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,080 Speaker 3: will this number really move? It's coming off a major 839 00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:17,400 Speaker 3: head injury in his first start. The craziest, the highest 840 00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:19,839 Speaker 3: I can see this guy is minus three. So yeah, 841 00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:21,680 Speaker 3: from early bet I ticked the two and a half. 842 00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:23,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, right now. 843 00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:27,560 Speaker 1: The Dolphins, they went through Tyler Huntley, they ended with Tim. 844 00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,480 Speaker 3: Boyle, ended with Tim Boyle. Yeah, which was that might 845 00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:31,239 Speaker 3: be the quarterback? 846 00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,319 Speaker 2: That's that's no good. No, that's no good. 847 00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:39,160 Speaker 1: All right, we've run through the games. We're going to 848 00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:44,400 Speaker 1: go deeper on Tuesday. Obviously we're rooting hard for the Jets. 849 00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,279 Speaker 3: No, we didn't even talk Vikings minus three versus the Rams. 850 00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,319 Speaker 3: There's a lot of really fun games this will coming 851 00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:50,319 Speaker 3: week that we'd even touch. 852 00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:55,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, rooting hard for the Jets tonight, rooting hard, hard, 853 00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,279 Speaker 1: hard for the Bucks tomorrow. 854 00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,200 Speaker 2: We'd like to feel good on Tuesday. 855 00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,839 Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet 856 00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,000 Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five 857 00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,120 Speaker 1: customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you 858 00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:15,480 Speaker 1: bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit 859 00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:18,239 Speaker 1: ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to get 860 00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:22,040 Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets. 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Catch our next episode of the Favorites live 868 00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:52,080 Speaker 1: on Tuesday one thirty pm Eastern on Action Networks YouTube 869 00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,719 Speaker 1: channel and in the Action Network app. We'll cover the 870 00:44:54,760 --> 00:45:01,160 Speaker 1: whole NFL Week eight board, announce our Week seven test winner. 871 00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:04,320 Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, 872 00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:06,920 Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, weave us five stars, say. 873 00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:10,480 Speaker 2: Whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Tuesday. Love You. 874 00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:23,040 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 875 00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:25,840 Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is 876 00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:29,000 Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler