WEBVTT - The Final Day of Campaigning for the White House

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day

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<v Speaker 1>we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of

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<v Speaker 1>show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be

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<v Speaker 1>Global News. Do you want to get right to the

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week agenda with us? Is Jina Martin Adams, chief

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<v Speaker 1>equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. She's on the phone in

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<v Speaker 1>New Jersey. Also from New Jersey on the remote access

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<v Speaker 1>is Ja Wilson, stocks editor at Bloomberg News. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>so here we are again. The markets started off stronger,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're definitely off our best levels of the session

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<v Speaker 1>and we do see as Charlie mentioned at NASDAC lower Gina,

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<v Speaker 1>you've been writing a lot about this. We focus a

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<v Speaker 1>lot on the elections, but you really are focusing on earnings. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and the reason Carol we're focused on or is because

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<v Speaker 1>I think what's happening the market is as much about

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<v Speaker 1>rotation between market leaders at the sector level as anything else.

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<v Speaker 1>I do think the election has certainly got some nerves frayed,

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<v Speaker 1>and you see that in the fix and fixed futures

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<v Speaker 1>markets sort of escalating over the last couple of weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>But also underlying that overall nervousness is a rotation and

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<v Speaker 1>leadership out of technology and into other sectors. We talked

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<v Speaker 1>about the market being, you know, just kind of blaw today,

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<v Speaker 1>not up a whole lot anymore after a pretty strong start.

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<v Speaker 1>The reason is because tech stocks have sold off. If

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the other sectors, energy stacks about more

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<v Speaker 1>than three percent, materials and industrial stocks are up greater

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<v Speaker 1>than two. But it's really trust tough for the broad

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<v Speaker 1>rise without the participation of the tech sector. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>an earnings thing. So even the earnings have beat expectations,

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<v Speaker 1>the tech stocks have sold off. Why have they sold

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<v Speaker 1>off because their earnings outlook is deteriorating a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>Other sectors are going to produce faster growth into and

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<v Speaker 1>that's diminishing the case for paying very very high valuation

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<v Speaker 1>multiples for tech stocks and logically right brain, left brain.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, if we look at it, Gina, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it makes sense considering the run up that we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>in these tech names and performing and performing to support

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<v Speaker 1>some of it. Yeah. Absolutely, And the reason that I

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<v Speaker 1>think you also want to think about the reason behind

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<v Speaker 1>the runup in the technique. You know, going into second

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<v Speaker 1>quarter and even much of third quarter earnings, they were

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<v Speaker 1>the only game in town. They're the groups that were

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<v Speaker 1>actually still printing revenue and earnings growth. That dynamic will

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<v Speaker 1>change going into the investment opportunity set improves. Tech stocks

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<v Speaker 1>deserved a high valuation multiple relative to the market when

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<v Speaker 1>they were the only stocks in the market creating earning growth,

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<v Speaker 1>and they were the only stocks in a very defensive

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<v Speaker 1>sort of portfolio really included a heavy tech concentration. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>now that we're moving into a different kind of landscape, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like the opportunities that will improve for other groups,

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<v Speaker 1>and those groups are more value and cyclically oriented segments

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<v Speaker 1>of the S and P. I'm going to ask you

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<v Speaker 1>how much that cycle last in a moment, but I

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<v Speaker 1>do want to bring in Dave Wilson and talk to

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<v Speaker 1>us about this rotation. Dave what are you seeing. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's it. I mean, if you think about tech in

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<v Speaker 1>the broad sense, I mean it's not just information technology,

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<v Speaker 1>it's also communications services where you find you know, Google's owner, Alphabet, Facebook,

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<v Speaker 1>and then the consumer discretionary category that includes Amazon dot Com.

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<v Speaker 1>Those are the only three groups that are down today,

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<v Speaker 1>along the eleven main ones in the S and P

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<v Speaker 1>five hundred, and there are plenty of stocks doing just

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<v Speaker 1>fine after earnings. Uh. So you know, what what you're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing is is sort of consistent with the idea that

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<v Speaker 1>you know. It's it's those big tech companies have been

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<v Speaker 1>drive in the market, and you know we've seen them

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<v Speaker 1>come off lately. You mean Sarah ponzack I saw her

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<v Speaker 1>chart out earlier today. I know she'll be on this

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<v Speaker 1>program later on. Uh, just noting that if you go

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<v Speaker 1>through those eleven main industry groups in the last month,

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<v Speaker 1>tech it's been the worst performers. So, you know, it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of consistent with what we've seen lately in the

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<v Speaker 1>way things have kind of been shifting around, but certainly

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<v Speaker 1>isn't working to the market's favor at the moment. I

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<v Speaker 1>know some value guys would be really happy to see

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<v Speaker 1>some market rotation genet come on in though how long

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<v Speaker 1>might this psycho rotation last, Like I do wonder how

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<v Speaker 1>much of it is contingent upon the economic recovery, what

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<v Speaker 1>we see in terms of more relief, Like I feel

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<v Speaker 1>like there are some questions what one looks like which

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<v Speaker 1>will determine who will continue to be the market leaders. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's a very very good point. If you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the outlook for earnings, is a pretty good

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<v Speaker 1>benchmark for what to expect. Tech is going to undershoot

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<v Speaker 1>earnings growth for the majority of one which means this

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<v Speaker 1>could have legs for you know, at least until the

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<v Speaker 1>second quarter, I think comes first quarter. A lot of

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<v Speaker 1>this will depend on who's in the White House. You know.

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<v Speaker 1>Clearly a blue wave is going to in my mind,

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<v Speaker 1>continue the trends that has started in the market of

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<v Speaker 1>cyclical rotation, because it most likely does mean that we

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<v Speaker 1>get a pretty large fiscal policy package sometime in the

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<v Speaker 1>first quarter. So even if in the short term you

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<v Speaker 1>don't get any fiscal policy, investors are going to count

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<v Speaker 1>on that fact come early and that's going to keep

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<v Speaker 1>the value rotation moving forward in my mind, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>And then also depends on how much we shut down again.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, obviously Europe is is shutting down again. Most

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<v Speaker 1>of us are assuming that the United States generally will

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<v Speaker 1>stay open, allowing for reasonable economic conditions to maintain through

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<v Speaker 1>the winter. But that's a wild card. You know, we

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<v Speaker 1>could have a much more difficult economic scenario in the

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<v Speaker 1>short run. Even then, though, I think most investors are

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<v Speaker 1>going to take that opportunity to add to cyclical earners

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<v Speaker 1>in anticipation of the policy outlook. I gotta say, I

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<v Speaker 1>said that France number heard it this morning, not this morning,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it was about one o'clock or a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit after one our time. I mean, a record more

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<v Speaker 1>than fifty two thousand new coronavirus cases. And it certainly

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<v Speaker 1>made me sit up and take notice. Gina, Yeah, absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>And I think a lot of people are taking notice

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<v Speaker 1>and kind of wondering what our response is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be as we head into the winter. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously escalation in infections in the US is problematic as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Will a new administration um you know, clearly this new

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<v Speaker 1>administration will would approach the virus contagion potentially differently than

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<v Speaker 1>the past administration. If we do have a new administration,

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<v Speaker 1>in the White House next year. So there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of uncertainty, without a doubt. Yeah, exactly. And Dave, that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of leads us to our chart quick tweet tease

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<v Speaker 1>on which you got coming up in the chart of

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<v Speaker 1>the day because it is election related, Yes it is.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, think about all the law and order issues

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<v Speaker 1>that have come up during this race, and you know

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<v Speaker 1>it's been a plus for the companies to make guns

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<v Speaker 1>and ammunition. They always this watching this connection always just

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<v Speaker 1>kind of blows my mind. All right, Davilson, We're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>look forward to that. Thank you so much. Gina Martin

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<v Speaker 1>Adams our thanks as always, Chief Equity Strategies at Bloomberg Intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>both of them joining us on the phone from New Jersey.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Um, so much to

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<v Speaker 1>get through in terms of the virus, and I've got

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<v Speaker 1>to say we are seeing big surges numbers rising, especially

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<v Speaker 1>in the Midwest, whether it's North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

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<v Speaker 1>Wisconsin in fact, I think is third behind North Dakota

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<v Speaker 1>and South Dakota. When it comes to New cases per capita,

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<v Speaker 1>and Nebraska and Iowa also up uh, and a look

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<v Speaker 1>at some of the averages over the past week in Minnesota,

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<v Speaker 1>the trend and new COVID cases and hospital admissions also upward.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get to someone who has really been so wonderful

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<v Speaker 1>with us throughout the pandemic back with us, and we

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<v Speaker 1>know she's busy. Dr Penny Wheeler. She's president CEO at

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<v Speaker 1>a Line of Health. They've got twelve hospitals in the

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<v Speaker 1>Minnesota area. They've got physicians, clinics, retail pharmacies throughout the

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<v Speaker 1>Twin Cities metro area in eastern Minnesota. She joins us

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<v Speaker 1>once again on the phone from Minnesota. Dr wheel are

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<v Speaker 1>great to have you back with us. How are you,

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks Carols, It's good to be back with you. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's thanks. Just times here as we see those case

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<v Speaker 1>counts go up in the hospitalizations go up as well,

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<v Speaker 1>so so uh, there's some anxiety about that for certain

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<v Speaker 1>I am wondering, what's the what are the conversations Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Wheeler that you're having. You know, I mentioned the number

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<v Speaker 1>over in France. We're watching Europe. I think everybody in

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<v Speaker 1>the US is wondering, okay, is this where we are headed.

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<v Speaker 1>France reporting a record fifty two thousand, five eighteen new

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus cases. That's a big number. Uh, And I wonder

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<v Speaker 1>are you guys setting up are the facilities within your

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<v Speaker 1>system and that you are involved with. Are you guys

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<v Speaker 1>in anticipating another big surge or seeing it all? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we are, we are certain to see it already. I

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<v Speaker 1>would say that you know, in our you know, in

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<v Speaker 1>in minnes you know you just mentioned Carol, the surrounding

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<v Speaker 1>states to Minnesota, all the Wisconsin and Iowa, we've all

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<v Speaker 1>had about a higher than positivity rate. We've been creeping

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<v Speaker 1>up and we've been seeing it around our border towns too.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're in about eight percent prot you know, positivity rate.

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<v Speaker 1>And I can tell you our hospital takes care about

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<v Speaker 1>a quarter to a third of all um those in

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<v Speaker 1>Minnesota affected by the virus. And we have doubled our

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<v Speaker 1>census in COVID cases over the last two weeks. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's coming quickly here. But what's what's you know, I'm curious,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, certainly in some of the conversations we've had

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<v Speaker 1>with within the medical community, is that we didn't have

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<v Speaker 1>the playbook back in March, right, we were just scrambling

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<v Speaker 1>to figure it all out. Get the equipment, get every

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the places you know, get the systems, the

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<v Speaker 1>necessary systems in place, or the equipment in place. I

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<v Speaker 1>do feel like we are smarter now, and I hope so,

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<v Speaker 1>but I do wonder what are you seeing or what

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<v Speaker 1>have we learned from the past six to seven months,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's equipment, but also treating patients. Yeah, totally smarter,

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<v Speaker 1>totally smarter, and how we're treating patients and supporting other

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<v Speaker 1>organ systems and knowing how to treat them. So fewer

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<v Speaker 1>people who are in our intensive care units are actually

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<v Speaker 1>suc coming to the season dying so bad is good

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<v Speaker 1>good news because we've learned more and we have more

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<v Speaker 1>more treatments and more UM support available. You know, we

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<v Speaker 1>do have the right now, the stuff available. We increasing

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<v Speaker 1>testing significantly. I'll tell you the biggest channel for us

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<v Speaker 1>is staffing. Staffing this appropriately for the search because of course,

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<v Speaker 1>some of our health care workers are also people who

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<v Speaker 1>are getting ill or having family members that are ill.

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<v Speaker 1>So I the plea would be, boy, please do the

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<v Speaker 1>distancing and masking. I know it's getting old and hard,

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<v Speaker 1>but you're also protecting our healthcare workers significantly by doing so.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I think it's really interesting that you're saying that,

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<v Speaker 1>because um I had a conversation actually with the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of Chipotle last week and I said, you know, same thing.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, what has changed in your world, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>since March and April in terms of the virus, And

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<v Speaker 1>he said, one of the most recent challenges is that

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<v Speaker 1>our own employees are getting sick and it makes it

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<v Speaker 1>harder to run the restaurant. And I do think this

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be maybe the story for the second

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<v Speaker 1>third waves is you know, making sure that whether it's

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<v Speaker 1>in healthcare, whatever industry, that we've got the necessary workers.

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<v Speaker 1>And I know in healthcare it's critical, yeah, critical to

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<v Speaker 1>just really the health of the community and our ability

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<v Speaker 1>to treat people. So I worry that our capacity limitation

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<v Speaker 1>will be healthy available staff. So it will be who limits.

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<v Speaker 1>It won't be on the it won't be on the

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<v Speaker 1>PPE right now, it looks like it won't probably be

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<v Speaker 1>on the testing. It will be on that. So what

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<v Speaker 1>do you do? Can you reach out to or what

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<v Speaker 1>do you do? Do you reach out to your surrounding community,

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<v Speaker 1>But they're also facing the same thing. Is there is

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<v Speaker 1>there federal assistance that can help in this kind of situation.

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<v Speaker 1>Not you know, we're not looking to federal assistance, but

0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:32.920
<v Speaker 1>we can are collaborating wonderfully well among you know, the

0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:36.160
<v Speaker 1>systems here, so that we're trying to just balance things out.

0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:39.640
<v Speaker 1>If somebody doesn't have I few availability, who does, so

0:11:39.720 --> 0:11:42.160
<v Speaker 1>we're not you know, this is the time again for collaboration,

0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:46.400
<v Speaker 1>not competitiveness. And then we're continually working with each other.

0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:48.840
<v Speaker 1>Like two of us are involved, for example, in vaccine

0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:51.320
<v Speaker 1>trials that are going on, so we're trying to be

0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:55.320
<v Speaker 1>proactive about you know, enrolling people in in in those

0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:59.040
<v Speaker 1>trials as well. Yeah, I do wonder you know that,

0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:00.640
<v Speaker 1>like I said that this is going to be one

0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:04.120
<v Speaker 1>of the main stories at this point. Um. I do

0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:06.480
<v Speaker 1>wonder too that one of the things that we saw,

0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.360
<v Speaker 1>certainly when we were in the midst of it here

0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:11.880
<v Speaker 1>in the New York metro area, that there was really

0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:16.199
<v Speaker 1>this great kind of sharing of equipment, sharing of knowledge.

0:12:16.360 --> 0:12:18.400
<v Speaker 1>And you know, what are you seeing, you know, as

0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:21.280
<v Speaker 1>you deal with the entire healthcare community, or are you

0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:26.680
<v Speaker 1>seeing that continued cooperation and assistance around the country. We're seeing,

0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:30.840
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing the collaboration and cooperation here in spades, and

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.679
<v Speaker 1>well we can get you can manufacture equipment. What you

0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:39.640
<v Speaker 1>can't do is manufactured talented, compassionate UM staff. And so

0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:42.520
<v Speaker 1>again that's the that's the area that I think all

0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:46.560
<v Speaker 1>of us are most concerned about dr UM well are

0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:48.679
<v Speaker 1>One thing I wanted to know is in terms of

0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:53.760
<v Speaker 1>those getting the virus, are the demographics changing? Is it older, younger?

0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 1>Is it a mixture. I'm just curious what you guys

0:12:56.000 --> 0:13:00.439
<v Speaker 1>are seeing. Yeah, the demographics aren't changing into terms of

0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:04.920
<v Speaker 1>those UM disproportionally affected who are black, indigenous people of color,

0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:08.000
<v Speaker 1>so that's not changing. We are seeing a slight shift

0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:12.560
<v Speaker 1>to younger UM people getting getting the virus uh UM.

0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:17.600
<v Speaker 1>But otherwise profile and obviously the most of the very

0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 1>severe illness isn't. Sadly, the deaths occur in those who

0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:24.440
<v Speaker 1>are in the older age groups or those who have

0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:27.480
<v Speaker 1>chronic illnesses. So that's staying the same. Yeah, so very

0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:31.360
<v Speaker 1>very similar. Listen, you know better than most it's all

0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:35.480
<v Speaker 1>about you know, a vaccine. Although when you I'm curious

0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:37.160
<v Speaker 1>how you feel about this. I feel like we continue

0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.720
<v Speaker 1>to have conversations where more and more members of the

0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:42.880
<v Speaker 1>medical community say, yep, a vaccines very important, but also

0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:45.880
<v Speaker 1>really important is wearing your masks, social distancing, doing all

0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 1>all those simple things that can really make a difference

0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:52.400
<v Speaker 1>in terms of our fight against this virus. Well, no

0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:55.240
<v Speaker 1>question over emphasizing those over and over again. I heard

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:59.640
<v Speaker 1>one of your wonderful masks UH public service announcements while

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:03.120
<v Speaker 1>I was eating that's so important. The vaccine is important.

0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:05.680
<v Speaker 1>It's it's not an all be all though. We're involved

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:09.720
<v Speaker 1>in a Johnson and Johnson ensemble vaccine trial with enrollment

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:13.760
<v Speaker 1>of people, and we're actually participant, you know, especially focused

0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:17.720
<v Speaker 1>on populations of color, black, Indigenous, and people of color

0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:22.200
<v Speaker 1>as participants, targeting specific zip codes. Sometimes these these studies

0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:25.600
<v Speaker 1>are done too much on a more of you know,

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:30.840
<v Speaker 1>a white um population, and this is disproportionately affecting people

0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:34.360
<v Speaker 1>of colors that we're actually targeting and asked to target

0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:38.600
<v Speaker 1>our our vaccine trial accordingly. And then I think, Carol,

0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:40.440
<v Speaker 1>you said it just right on the other side of things,

0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:43.280
<v Speaker 1>we want a vaccine that can be trusted for sure,

0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:46.120
<v Speaker 1>and that has safety, and that trust is important to

0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 1>people being able to actually get the vaccine. But remember

0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:53.960
<v Speaker 1>even the even great flu vaccines, are you know, successful,

0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:58.080
<v Speaker 1>and then there's a proportion that doesn't take them. So,

0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:00.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, I also don't want people to think it's

0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:02.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, we're flipping a switch and it's all over

0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:04.160
<v Speaker 1>at that point too, But it's even when we get

0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:06.320
<v Speaker 1>a safe one. Well, and that's a really good point.

0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:10.040
<v Speaker 1>But I also think, you know, we continually talk um,

0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:12.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, Penny about that when we get a vaccine,

0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:13.760
<v Speaker 1>we've got to make sure it gets out to those

0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:18.240
<v Speaker 1>most vulnerable populations as you guys are targeting. You said

0:15:18.280 --> 0:15:21.680
<v Speaker 1>some zip code specifically of you know, black and indigenous,

0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:25.120
<v Speaker 1>you know color people, And I do wonder do you

0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:26.880
<v Speaker 1>have a lot of faith in the system that when

0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:31.160
<v Speaker 1>it gets to you know, distribution logistics, that it will

0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:33.280
<v Speaker 1>get to those people who really need it most. And

0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:36.080
<v Speaker 1>what do we need to make sure that that happens? Boy?

0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:38.480
<v Speaker 1>I do I do believe that will be true. You know,

0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:40.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm an opport heart, but I think that those people

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:44.360
<v Speaker 1>who are most vulnerable and most willing, you know, those

0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:48.720
<v Speaker 1>and in institutional settings that are elderly, those who are

0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:52.280
<v Speaker 1>disproportionately affected, I think their acceptance rate will be higher.

0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:55.000
<v Speaker 1>And when we have a vaccine that we can trust,

0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:57.560
<v Speaker 1>I think that that will be going. I don't know

0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:01.440
<v Speaker 1>that we will have widespread vaccine available, you know, right

0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:04.320
<v Speaker 1>off the bat, but I think that those populations because

0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:08.080
<v Speaker 1>of the UM, you know that the vaccine wo be widespread,

0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.680
<v Speaker 1>yet will be the first one targeted for sure. One

0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:17.520
<v Speaker 1>last question, I wonder what might surprise some of our listeners,

0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.440
<v Speaker 1>especially here we are, what eight months in of dealing

0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:23.480
<v Speaker 1>with this virus UM and you've seen it, like I said,

0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:27.320
<v Speaker 1>front row seed for better or for worse? UM. You

0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.440
<v Speaker 1>know what would surprise everyone about this fight, especially as

0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:32.920
<v Speaker 1>it goes, You know, I would I'd have to say

0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:36.480
<v Speaker 1>our staff. The resilience of our staff putting themselves on

0:16:36.520 --> 0:16:39.160
<v Speaker 1>the line every day to try to care for others

0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:43.240
<v Speaker 1>and going there day after day, um, despite their own

0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:46.080
<v Speaker 1>personal fatigue. Obviously, this is affecting us all personally as

0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:49.760
<v Speaker 1>well as professionally and all that that brings. And having

0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:53.080
<v Speaker 1>school aged children that they're schooling at home and then

0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:57.880
<v Speaker 1>coming and trying to take care of people, they are remarkable,

0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:01.760
<v Speaker 1>just remarkable. So I know that that's a surprise to everybody.

0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:03.600
<v Speaker 1>But when you see it day after day after day,

0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:08.000
<v Speaker 1>you the human spirit and its resiliency in trying to

0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:10.960
<v Speaker 1>work on behalf of others is pretty incredible. Well, I'm

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:12.919
<v Speaker 1>guessing as a leader, it's nice to see your staff, right,

0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:16.040
<v Speaker 1>really just be out there, especially when everybody is stressed

0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:18.679
<v Speaker 1>out on so many different levels. Um, Penny, thank you

0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:20.919
<v Speaker 1>so much. Dr Penny wheel Er. She is president CEO

0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:23.879
<v Speaker 1>at A Line of Health, joining us once again on

0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:27.959
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Minnesota with a virus up update, excuse me,

0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:31.040
<v Speaker 1>and just talking about the collaboration that they're doing with

0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:33.679
<v Speaker 1>Johnson and Johnson as well and really targeting some of

0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:36.640
<v Speaker 1>the specific zip codes, the specific you know, and most

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:41.200
<v Speaker 1>vulnerable populations. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.360
<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Radio. So we've talked about this. I feel

0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:47.120
<v Speaker 1>like with the several business owners many of the restaurants space,

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:51.960
<v Speaker 1>including Danielle Bulu. It affects all kinds of industries, businesses,

0:17:52.000 --> 0:17:54.440
<v Speaker 1>all sizes of businesses. It's really about how the big

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:57.120
<v Speaker 1>insurance companies have by and large refused to pay business

0:17:57.119 --> 0:18:00.399
<v Speaker 1>interruption claims. This next story gets into it's gonna be

0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:02.720
<v Speaker 1>featured in this week's issue of the magazine. Let's get

0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:07.040
<v Speaker 1>into it. Bloomberg News Legal reporter David Yaffee Bellini joining

0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:09.399
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Washington, d C. Along with

0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:12.400
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg business Week editor Joe Webber with us from Brooklyn.

0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:14.960
<v Speaker 1>I feel, like Joe, the stakes here are enormous for

0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:19.000
<v Speaker 1>everyone involved. Yeah, that's right. And when David came to

0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:23.800
<v Speaker 1>us with this pitch, I think he really just immediately

0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:28.240
<v Speaker 1>got our attention because we're about to see a case

0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:31.960
<v Speaker 1>brought to a court by an attorney in New Orleans

0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:35.040
<v Speaker 1>and it is basically the shot across the Bow, and

0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:37.280
<v Speaker 1>I think all eyes are gonna be on it because

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:41.920
<v Speaker 1>it will be sort of it's basically business versus insurance

0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:46.199
<v Speaker 1>and there's probably billions of dollars in this way in

0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:50.600
<v Speaker 1>terms of how this one um sways effectively. UM and

0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:53.480
<v Speaker 1>he happens to be an incredibly colorful character as well,

0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:56.600
<v Speaker 1>so that made the story that much more enjoyable to read.

0:18:56.800 --> 0:19:00.399
<v Speaker 1>It's a movie in the making. I have to say, exactly, David,

0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:03.480
<v Speaker 1>who is this lawyer that we're talking about. He's a

0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:06.920
<v Speaker 1>plaintiff lawyer in New Orleans named John hotel ing Um

0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:11.200
<v Speaker 1>who has basically been ensuing insurance companies after major disasters

0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:14.560
<v Speaker 1>since Hurricane Katrina. So he has a track record of

0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:19.800
<v Speaker 1>representing businesses and coverage disputes, and this dispute over business

0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.480
<v Speaker 1>interruption insurance is sort of the latest iteration of that.

0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:29.320
<v Speaker 1>And how much money could we potentially be looking at here,

0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:31.960
<v Speaker 1>like what what what's involved in this particular case and

0:19:31.960 --> 0:19:36.840
<v Speaker 1>then what cases to come. So the amount of money

0:19:36.840 --> 0:19:40.720
<v Speaker 1>in this particular case in New Orleans isn't entirely clear

0:19:40.800 --> 0:19:44.560
<v Speaker 1>yet because the restaurant that he's representing hasn't actually filed

0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:48.560
<v Speaker 1>a claim. Um, they're preemptively suing to kind of establish

0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.560
<v Speaker 1>the legal precedent that insurers should be on the hook

0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:56.680
<v Speaker 1>for damage caused by the pandemic. Um. But if you,

0:19:56.680 --> 0:19:59.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, broaden this out to all the businesses across

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.119
<v Speaker 1>the country that have business interruption insurance and are suing

0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.959
<v Speaker 1>to force their insurers to pay up. One industry estimate

0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:09.960
<v Speaker 1>puts it in between fifty two billion dollars and two

0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:13.679
<v Speaker 1>d and twenty three billion dollars a month that insurers

0:20:13.680 --> 0:20:16.600
<v Speaker 1>would have to pay to cover the damage caused by

0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:19.520
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. And the argument that the insurance industry is

0:20:19.560 --> 0:20:22.480
<v Speaker 1>making is that this would essentially wipe out their reserves.

0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:27.040
<v Speaker 1>It's just not feasible for them to cover this many claims.

0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:28.879
<v Speaker 1>I have to say. I mean, this kind of gets

0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:32.399
<v Speaker 1>to like, why do you have insurance, right, and this

0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:36.480
<v Speaker 1>whole idea of unprecedented when it comes to acts of

0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:40.199
<v Speaker 1>either natural disasters or you know, just unexplained events, and

0:20:40.240 --> 0:20:43.320
<v Speaker 1>I feel like that's going to be talked about a lot, David,

0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:47.800
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to these cases. Yeah. Absolutely. I mean,

0:20:47.840 --> 0:20:50.480
<v Speaker 1>the the other argument that the insurers keep making it

0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:54.320
<v Speaker 1>that it's totally unprecedented because we've had catastrophes in the past,

0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:57.560
<v Speaker 1>but they're they're isolated to a certain geographic region. There's

0:20:57.600 --> 0:21:00.440
<v Speaker 1>a there's a hurricane in New Orleans, which is Stroy's

0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:03.199
<v Speaker 1>businesses there, but at least it only affects, you know,

0:21:03.280 --> 0:21:06.600
<v Speaker 1>one city or or a few cities. Um, Whereas the

0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:09.960
<v Speaker 1>pandemic is like a hurricane happening in every city in

0:21:09.960 --> 0:21:12.520
<v Speaker 1>the country at the same time, and every business in

0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:15.960
<v Speaker 1>the country is disrupted in a major way, and it's

0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:19.560
<v Speaker 1>just not possible for the insurers to respond. Um. The

0:21:19.600 --> 0:21:22.359
<v Speaker 1>interesting thing is, you know, the pandemic took most parts

0:21:22.359 --> 0:21:25.800
<v Speaker 1>of American society by surprise, but actually the insurance companies

0:21:25.840 --> 0:21:28.680
<v Speaker 1>have been had anticipated at this moment for a couple

0:21:28.720 --> 0:21:32.320
<v Speaker 1>of decades. After after stars UM a few of the

0:21:32.320 --> 0:21:35.520
<v Speaker 1>insurance companies were forced to make big payouts to companies

0:21:35.560 --> 0:21:38.920
<v Speaker 1>in China that had to shut down UM during during

0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:41.200
<v Speaker 1>what well you know, stars was sort of reading through

0:21:41.240 --> 0:21:44.280
<v Speaker 1>Asia in the early two thousand's UM and after that,

0:21:44.920 --> 0:21:48.400
<v Speaker 1>insurance companies inserted language and some of these policies that

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:54.280
<v Speaker 1>seems to exclude damage caused by a virus from coverage,

0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:57.080
<v Speaker 1>and part of the legal battle is whether that language

0:21:57.119 --> 0:22:00.119
<v Speaker 1>should actually apply to the pandemic. UM. They're all of

0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:03.080
<v Speaker 1>policies that don't include that sort of language. So the

0:22:03.080 --> 0:22:05.679
<v Speaker 1>insurance companies have been have been thinking about this for

0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:09.080
<v Speaker 1>a while, so they're not They're not entirely unprepared as

0:22:09.119 --> 0:22:12.639
<v Speaker 1>this kind of legal battle ramps up. Okay, David, can

0:22:12.680 --> 0:22:18.360
<v Speaker 1>we talk about the Lambas Yes? I said this guy

0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:22.400
<v Speaker 1>was colorful and literally he has colorful cars. Um, what

0:22:22.400 --> 0:22:27.359
<v Speaker 1>what is with the Lamborghinis? So John Hoteiling is a

0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:31.000
<v Speaker 1>is a is a big luxury car enthusiast. He has

0:22:31.040 --> 0:22:34.760
<v Speaker 1>an extensive collection of Ferraris and Lamborghinis. He he told

0:22:34.760 --> 0:22:37.479
<v Speaker 1>me that that as a child growing up in New Orleans,

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:40.520
<v Speaker 1>he had a catalog, a kind of Lamborghini catalog or

0:22:40.560 --> 0:22:42.960
<v Speaker 1>buyer's guy that he would flip through as a kid,

0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:45.760
<v Speaker 1>sort of fantasizing about cars that he might be able

0:22:45.760 --> 0:22:48.159
<v Speaker 1>to afford one day. And he kept this catalog. And

0:22:48.200 --> 0:22:51.919
<v Speaker 1>when he actually became really wealthy, um, after you know,

0:22:51.920 --> 0:22:54.840
<v Speaker 1>winning tons of big cases in the early two thousand's,

0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:57.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, he went through this catalog and decided the

0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:01.560
<v Speaker 1>Key would buy every single model all of Lamborghini advertised

0:23:01.560 --> 0:23:05.040
<v Speaker 1>in it. And that was seventeen Lamborghinis. And so he's

0:23:05.080 --> 0:23:08.240
<v Speaker 1>got those parked at a garage near his mansion in

0:23:08.400 --> 0:23:12.400
<v Speaker 1>New Orleans, right right near this famous garden district. Um.

0:23:12.800 --> 0:23:15.800
<v Speaker 1>And you know he's added to it over the years.

0:23:15.800 --> 0:23:19.119
<v Speaker 1>He races luxury cars. He racism in a in a

0:23:19.200 --> 0:23:22.639
<v Speaker 1>sort of in a big race in Italy every year. Um.

0:23:22.720 --> 0:23:25.080
<v Speaker 1>So it's a it's a pretty it's a pretty vast

0:23:25.119 --> 0:23:29.040
<v Speaker 1>and impressive collection of luxury vehicles. What's he like though,

0:23:29.160 --> 0:23:31.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean it sounds like just first of all, it

0:23:31.440 --> 0:23:34.240
<v Speaker 1>is like reading a novel, your story, Um, but just

0:23:34.520 --> 0:23:37.480
<v Speaker 1>the dinner that you start off with. What is he like?

0:23:37.600 --> 0:23:41.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, how real is he? He's he's a he's

0:23:41.280 --> 0:23:45.080
<v Speaker 1>a real person and he's really passionate about about this

0:23:45.320 --> 0:23:49.040
<v Speaker 1>cause I mean he's He's not somebody who just showed

0:23:49.119 --> 0:23:52.359
<v Speaker 1>up on the scene and started suing insurance companies because

0:23:52.359 --> 0:23:54.600
<v Speaker 1>he thought that this was you know, this was like

0:23:54.680 --> 0:23:57.360
<v Speaker 1>the biggest, biggest chance to make money off the pandemic

0:23:57.440 --> 0:24:00.760
<v Speaker 1>or something like that. UM. He's been kind of an

0:24:00.760 --> 0:24:04.920
<v Speaker 1>advocate on behalf of insurance policy holders since Katrina, which

0:24:04.920 --> 0:24:08.800
<v Speaker 1>happened in his in his hometown. UM. He's really knowledgeable

0:24:08.920 --> 0:24:11.560
<v Speaker 1>about these issues. UM. And he's done a lot of

0:24:11.600 --> 0:24:15.920
<v Speaker 1>work to sort of unite um different types of businesses

0:24:15.960 --> 0:24:19.159
<v Speaker 1>around the country and various lobbying efforts to get you know,

0:24:19.280 --> 0:24:23.240
<v Speaker 1>laws passed that couldn't force insurers to pay out. UM.

0:24:23.280 --> 0:24:25.359
<v Speaker 1>So so for him, it's a it's a kind of

0:24:25.400 --> 0:24:29.639
<v Speaker 1>really personal battle and you know, not just kind of

0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:32.840
<v Speaker 1>a moment of opportunism. UM. I just have to say

0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:34.760
<v Speaker 1>I love how it it wraps up that, you know,

0:24:35.280 --> 0:24:37.360
<v Speaker 1>while the insurance companies are saying, wait, this could kind

0:24:37.359 --> 0:24:39.520
<v Speaker 1>of knock us, you know, out of business too, it

0:24:39.560 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 1>feels like he's saying, I love the quote that you know,

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:43.679
<v Speaker 1>if I hit them one percent enough to buy a

0:24:43.680 --> 0:24:45.640
<v Speaker 1>fleet of Ferraris in a private jet and houses all

0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:47.960
<v Speaker 1>over and a humongous mansion with tens of millions and

0:24:48.000 --> 0:24:50.320
<v Speaker 1>antiques in it. You don't cares to drop in the bucket.

0:24:50.359 --> 0:24:53.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's just it's it's kind of interesting to

0:24:53.920 --> 0:24:56.200
<v Speaker 1>hear his take on this, and he sounds like quite

0:24:56.200 --> 0:25:00.720
<v Speaker 1>a character. All right. It's definitely a mustery, uh and

0:25:00.760 --> 0:25:03.240
<v Speaker 1>everybody should check it out. David, Thank you so much,

0:25:03.320 --> 0:25:06.720
<v Speaker 1>David Yaffe Bellini. He's legal reporter at Bloomberg News. Check

0:25:06.760 --> 0:25:08.879
<v Speaker 1>out the story at Bloomberg dot com and on the

0:25:08.880 --> 0:25:11.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg and will be in uh, the current issue or

0:25:11.560 --> 0:25:14.120
<v Speaker 1>the upcoming issue of Bloomberg business Week magazine. Joe Webber,

0:25:14.240 --> 0:25:16.879
<v Speaker 1>thank you as well, editor at Bloomberg business Week, joining

0:25:16.960 --> 0:25:20.880
<v Speaker 1>us on the remote access from Brooklyn. So a great story.

0:25:20.920 --> 0:25:22.919
<v Speaker 1>I'll put it out on Twitter as well because it's interesting.

0:25:22.960 --> 0:25:25.040
<v Speaker 1>This is one of the big issues we've We've talked

0:25:25.080 --> 0:25:26.879
<v Speaker 1>with Danielle Blue. We've talked with a lot of folks

0:25:26.920 --> 0:25:30.600
<v Speaker 1>in the restaurant industry who were counting other insurance policies

0:25:30.640 --> 0:25:33.240
<v Speaker 1>to kind of help them through and then kind of

0:25:33.280 --> 0:25:36.919
<v Speaker 1>had a harsh awakening to see that they weren't necessarily covered.

0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:40.760
<v Speaker 1>And as we know, the restaurant industry raisor within in

0:25:40.920 --> 0:25:43.439
<v Speaker 1>terms of margins, and a lot of them just on

0:25:43.480 --> 0:25:45.640
<v Speaker 1>the edge, any of the smaller players. It's been really tough.

0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:48.639
<v Speaker 1>But it's not just restaurants. It's all kinds of businesses,

0:25:49.119 --> 0:25:52.440
<v Speaker 1>and that is certainly what this case is all about.

0:25:52.640 --> 0:25:57.760
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. Hey,

0:25:57.840 --> 0:26:00.720
<v Speaker 1>here we are Election Eve, just hours before holes officially

0:26:00.720 --> 0:26:02.680
<v Speaker 1>open on the East coast of the United States, last

0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:05.440
<v Speaker 1>day of campaigning for President Trump and former VP Joe

0:26:05.480 --> 0:26:09.359
<v Speaker 1>Buying a hundred million early votes, already forecast to be

0:26:09.520 --> 0:26:12.000
<v Speaker 1>in one third of the Senate also being elected. Race

0:26:12.040 --> 0:26:15.080
<v Speaker 1>has become tighter of the last few weeks. Man, it's

0:26:15.119 --> 0:26:18.119
<v Speaker 1>just one headline after another. Bloomberg News political contributor and

0:26:18.160 --> 0:26:21.960
<v Speaker 1>Iona College professor a political science Jeanie Zo is back

0:26:22.000 --> 0:26:24.920
<v Speaker 1>with us again from New Rochelle, New York. Genie, good

0:26:24.920 --> 0:26:28.359
<v Speaker 1>to have you here. It is here almost. It's hard

0:26:28.440 --> 0:26:31.280
<v Speaker 1>to believe. When you just said election Eve, I thought

0:26:31.359 --> 0:26:34.119
<v Speaker 1>she can't really, Wow, it is, And you know, I

0:26:34.119 --> 0:26:36.960
<v Speaker 1>would just add another number that I read earlier today,

0:26:37.000 --> 0:26:41.680
<v Speaker 1>which is fourteen billion dollars spent by federal candidates, committees

0:26:41.680 --> 0:26:45.240
<v Speaker 1>and outside groups raised and spent this election cycle. Breaking

0:26:45.320 --> 0:26:48.320
<v Speaker 1>all records obviously, but it's you know, it's almost a

0:26:48.400 --> 0:26:51.680
<v Speaker 1>mind numbing number to imagine spent on an election. Well,

0:26:51.720 --> 0:26:54.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, we always say it's not different this time around,

0:26:54.280 --> 0:26:56.800
<v Speaker 1>Yet it feels really different this time around. Is it?

0:26:56.920 --> 0:27:00.760
<v Speaker 1>You understand elections? You see cycles. I mean, is are

0:27:00.800 --> 0:27:05.280
<v Speaker 1>there things that make it different this year? Absolutely? Obviously

0:27:05.359 --> 0:27:08.959
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic number one, and the amount of people that

0:27:09.000 --> 0:27:12.159
<v Speaker 1>have engaged in early voting. You know, we just talked

0:27:12.280 --> 0:27:14.800
<v Speaker 1>the last week. It was you know, I can't remember

0:27:14.800 --> 0:27:17.240
<v Speaker 1>where we were at that point, fifty million or whatever

0:27:17.320 --> 0:27:21.360
<v Speaker 1>it was, and now we are over nine million at

0:27:21.359 --> 0:27:24.240
<v Speaker 1>the latest. This is a third of Americans almost, it is.

0:27:24.320 --> 0:27:26.919
<v Speaker 1>It is a stunning number, and I think, you know,

0:27:27.000 --> 0:27:29.760
<v Speaker 1>if it's any indication of what we see on Tuesday,

0:27:29.760 --> 0:27:32.280
<v Speaker 1>we're going to see you know, record breaking or near

0:27:32.359 --> 0:27:36.359
<v Speaker 1>record breaking, very high turnout. And it's astonishing. And I

0:27:36.400 --> 0:27:38.600
<v Speaker 1>think one thing we don't do enough is give credit

0:27:38.880 --> 0:27:41.480
<v Speaker 1>to the American public and also the poll workers who

0:27:41.480 --> 0:27:44.960
<v Speaker 1>are out there making this happen, because you know, it's

0:27:45.000 --> 0:27:46.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, there was a time several months ago when

0:27:46.920 --> 0:27:49.600
<v Speaker 1>we thought maybe people simply wouldn't go out to vote,

0:27:49.680 --> 0:27:52.760
<v Speaker 1>or wouldn't engage because of COVID, and yet we've seen

0:27:52.800 --> 0:27:56.159
<v Speaker 1>exactly the opposite. Yeah, that's really fascinating. I agree with you,

0:27:56.160 --> 0:27:57.560
<v Speaker 1>and I think we were concerned about a lot of

0:27:57.560 --> 0:27:59.680
<v Speaker 1>times at polls. It's a lot of older individuals who

0:27:59.680 --> 0:28:02.760
<v Speaker 1>were to be nervous about being there because of COVID.

0:28:02.880 --> 0:28:05.000
<v Speaker 1>So one thing I've got to ask you, I mean,

0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:07.480
<v Speaker 1>you watch the polls. There are lots of them. I

0:28:07.560 --> 0:28:10.119
<v Speaker 1>just kind of go through it every morning, and you know,

0:28:10.440 --> 0:28:14.000
<v Speaker 1>we reminded that last time around we got it wrong. Um,

0:28:14.160 --> 0:28:17.080
<v Speaker 1>is there something different about the methodology this time around

0:28:17.080 --> 0:28:20.280
<v Speaker 1>that can make us look at certain poles or poles

0:28:20.560 --> 0:28:24.320
<v Speaker 1>in general as being more reliable this time around? There

0:28:24.359 --> 0:28:27.080
<v Speaker 1>are there are some differences. The number one difference is

0:28:27.119 --> 0:28:30.440
<v Speaker 1>that we have a lot more polls than we had

0:28:30.440 --> 0:28:34.920
<v Speaker 1>in sixteen, and particularly in the battleground states, and they

0:28:34.920 --> 0:28:37.800
<v Speaker 1>are polling later. Like you know, we have seen polls

0:28:37.880 --> 0:28:41.320
<v Speaker 1>over this weekend still coming today which are giving us

0:28:41.360 --> 0:28:45.400
<v Speaker 1>indications about important states like Pennsylvania. But the sheer number

0:28:45.480 --> 0:28:48.120
<v Speaker 1>of polls, and then the posters did try to learn

0:28:48.240 --> 0:28:52.920
<v Speaker 1>from in areas where they may have missed, and things

0:28:53.040 --> 0:28:56.240
<v Speaker 1>like trying to do a better job of voter turnout

0:28:56.280 --> 0:29:00.640
<v Speaker 1>and and reaching those voters who are actually going to engage.

0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:03.200
<v Speaker 1>Of course, the pandemic has you know, thrown a monkey

0:29:03.240 --> 0:29:05.840
<v Speaker 1>wrench into all of it. But we have seen a

0:29:05.960 --> 0:29:09.360
<v Speaker 1>different tact and I you know, we don't know yet

0:29:09.400 --> 0:29:11.480
<v Speaker 1>if it's going to pay off, because there is still

0:29:11.600 --> 0:29:16.120
<v Speaker 1>the question are people being honest with pollsters? You know,

0:29:16.200 --> 0:29:19.080
<v Speaker 1>are these numbers actually reflective of what we're going to see?

0:29:19.120 --> 0:29:20.640
<v Speaker 1>But I think the one thing to keep in mind

0:29:20.680 --> 0:29:24.400
<v Speaker 1>the polls have been remarkably steady throughout all of these

0:29:24.480 --> 0:29:28.640
<v Speaker 1>changes in this election cycle, and by and large they

0:29:28.680 --> 0:29:31.520
<v Speaker 1>have shown Joe Biden in the lead, although in some

0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 1>cases within a margin of error. And so that's where

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:37.760
<v Speaker 1>we are as we approach election day. But again, you know,

0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:40.440
<v Speaker 1>things can change at the last minute. Well what do

0:29:40.520 --> 0:29:42.160
<v Speaker 1>you make to you have listened? We talked a lot.

0:29:42.200 --> 0:29:44.880
<v Speaker 1>I know, Bloomberg business Week magazine did a whole story

0:29:44.880 --> 0:29:47.520
<v Speaker 1>on like the shy Trump voter, right that people back

0:29:47.560 --> 0:29:49.720
<v Speaker 1>in sixteen wouldn't come out and say we're going to

0:29:49.800 --> 0:29:53.600
<v Speaker 1>vote for Donald Trump, and yet they did, you know privately,

0:29:54.200 --> 0:29:56.840
<v Speaker 1>uh ultimately when they went and pulled the lever. I

0:29:56.920 --> 0:30:00.480
<v Speaker 1>was watching some coverage of people talking about shy Biden

0:30:01.080 --> 0:30:04.400
<v Speaker 1>UM followers. Whether you're in a very kind of normally

0:30:04.440 --> 0:30:06.520
<v Speaker 1>red state like of Arizona, where you're afraid to kind

0:30:06.520 --> 0:30:08.560
<v Speaker 1>of come out and say something. So I do wonder

0:30:09.040 --> 0:30:11.920
<v Speaker 1>are there a lot of you know, are we still

0:30:11.960 --> 0:30:14.880
<v Speaker 1>in a situation where people maybe don't want to say

0:30:14.920 --> 0:30:18.640
<v Speaker 1>who they are voting for? I think so. I do

0:30:18.760 --> 0:30:21.080
<v Speaker 1>think so. So we you know this this notion of

0:30:21.120 --> 0:30:24.440
<v Speaker 1>a spiral of silence where people feel that something is

0:30:24.480 --> 0:30:28.600
<v Speaker 1>not you know, politically or socially acceptable in their circles,

0:30:28.640 --> 0:30:31.280
<v Speaker 1>so they won't certainly admit it to a stranger who

0:30:31.280 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 1>calls them on the phone for a poll. Um. So,

0:30:33.880 --> 0:30:35.920
<v Speaker 1>whether that's you know, you're going to support Joe Biden

0:30:35.960 --> 0:30:37.280
<v Speaker 1>and you're in a red state, or you're going to

0:30:37.320 --> 0:30:39.960
<v Speaker 1>support Donald Trump and you're in a blue state. I

0:30:40.040 --> 0:30:42.400
<v Speaker 1>do think we know that that is out there. The

0:30:42.440 --> 0:30:45.760
<v Speaker 1>extent of it, I think is a big question. We

0:30:45.840 --> 0:30:47.880
<v Speaker 1>know the Trump team feels that there are a lot

0:30:47.920 --> 0:30:50.920
<v Speaker 1>more of those people out there than you know, many

0:30:51.000 --> 0:30:54.480
<v Speaker 1>researchers have been able to document. But some of this

0:30:54.640 --> 0:30:57.360
<v Speaker 1>is just going to take after election day comparing what

0:30:57.440 --> 0:31:01.040
<v Speaker 1>are the actual results to what people were telling the posters.

0:31:01.120 --> 0:31:04.640
<v Speaker 1>Everything at this point now becomes you know, guessing within

0:31:04.680 --> 0:31:06.920
<v Speaker 1>a margin of error in a probability, what do you

0:31:06.920 --> 0:31:09.080
<v Speaker 1>think you're going to be? Ultimately, the key groups that

0:31:09.160 --> 0:31:11.480
<v Speaker 1>maybe show up at the polls that haven't in the past.

0:31:11.640 --> 0:31:14.960
<v Speaker 1>Is it minorities? Is it women? Um? What is it

0:31:15.080 --> 0:31:17.400
<v Speaker 1>or that? And and if maybe shifted who they were

0:31:17.440 --> 0:31:21.520
<v Speaker 1>supporting last time around. I think women, um, white women

0:31:21.680 --> 0:31:24.520
<v Speaker 1>we're going to be looking at, particularly in the suburbs. UM.

0:31:24.640 --> 0:31:28.320
<v Speaker 1>I think seniors. Uh, we're seeing a much more marked

0:31:28.360 --> 0:31:31.760
<v Speaker 1>support amongst seniors for Joe Biden than Democrats have enjoyed

0:31:31.760 --> 0:31:34.840
<v Speaker 1>in two decades. And I would also say I'm keenly

0:31:34.920 --> 0:31:37.840
<v Speaker 1>interested in young people. They seem to have a lot

0:31:37.880 --> 0:31:40.920
<v Speaker 1>of energy. Will there won't they turn out? They usually

0:31:40.960 --> 0:31:43.280
<v Speaker 1>don't turn out and as record numbers as you know,

0:31:43.600 --> 0:31:47.560
<v Speaker 1>their their counterparts, but I'm interested to see if they do.

0:31:47.840 --> 0:31:50.040
<v Speaker 1>And then of course over the weekend we're hearing concern

0:31:50.080 --> 0:31:54.040
<v Speaker 1>amongst Democrats about African American turnout in key states like Florida,

0:31:54.160 --> 0:31:56.880
<v Speaker 1>So that's also going to be interesting. And you know,

0:31:56.960 --> 0:31:59.760
<v Speaker 1>we talk a lot about shifts, Donald Trump shifting over

0:31:59.800 --> 0:32:04.360
<v Speaker 1>some African American men. They're estimating about which is not huge,

0:32:04.400 --> 0:32:07.960
<v Speaker 1>but much better than Republicans normally, do what I mean?

0:32:08.040 --> 0:32:09.960
<v Speaker 1>And what is you know, still, the issue is it

0:32:10.240 --> 0:32:12.720
<v Speaker 1>the economy? Is a virus? It was interesting the coverage

0:32:12.760 --> 0:32:15.160
<v Speaker 1>this weekend, and it was all maybe because of the

0:32:15.200 --> 0:32:17.240
<v Speaker 1>spikes that we're seeing in cases once again in this

0:32:17.320 --> 0:32:20.360
<v Speaker 1>country and just globally. You know, is it the virus?

0:32:20.400 --> 0:32:23.200
<v Speaker 1>What are people voting on? Typically it's do you feel better?

0:32:23.240 --> 0:32:25.520
<v Speaker 1>Do you have a job? Do you feel economically better?

0:32:25.600 --> 0:32:27.200
<v Speaker 1>We just got about thirty seconds and then we'll come

0:32:27.200 --> 0:32:30.440
<v Speaker 1>back and talk some more. But what is it? I'm

0:32:30.560 --> 0:32:33.440
<v Speaker 1>guessing it's going to be COVID, but I don't know

0:32:33.560 --> 0:32:36.600
<v Speaker 1>for certain. That is the big question. Can I just

0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:39.240
<v Speaker 1>ask you first of all, was it a little crazy

0:32:39.280 --> 0:32:40.959
<v Speaker 1>some of the stuff that was happening on the campaign

0:32:41.000 --> 0:32:46.000
<v Speaker 1>trail this weekend? I thought, so I was watching, and

0:32:46.640 --> 0:32:50.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think most worrisome to me was the

0:32:50.640 --> 0:32:53.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, disruption that occurred in terms of the Trump

0:32:53.880 --> 0:32:59.080
<v Speaker 1>supporters disrupting the you know, the bus of that. To me,

0:32:59.440 --> 0:33:03.440
<v Speaker 1>and then the president you know, seeming to support that,

0:33:03.440 --> 0:33:06.960
<v Speaker 1>that's very troublesome. And I know you've probably seen I've

0:33:06.960 --> 0:33:09.160
<v Speaker 1>seen things boarded up in New York City and White

0:33:09.280 --> 0:33:13.080
<v Speaker 1>in DC. That's a scary proposition because we may not

0:33:13.200 --> 0:33:17.320
<v Speaker 1>have results on Tuesday night, and if that encourages people

0:33:17.360 --> 0:33:19.719
<v Speaker 1>to respond in that manner, that's that's going to be

0:33:19.760 --> 0:33:21.920
<v Speaker 1>really upsetting. Well, so, Je, what do you make of

0:33:21.960 --> 0:33:24.760
<v Speaker 1>the president come out and saying basically, you know, we're

0:33:24.760 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 1>going to have a decision. We're gonna I'm gonna declare like,

0:33:28.360 --> 0:33:32.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, the results of the election. You know, it's

0:33:32.400 --> 0:33:35.000
<v Speaker 1>it's you know, like so many things with Donald Trump,

0:33:35.080 --> 0:33:38.880
<v Speaker 1>like nothing I've ever imagined hearing a president say, um,

0:33:38.920 --> 0:33:41.520
<v Speaker 1>I can't imagine that he will do that. Christopercy this

0:33:41.600 --> 0:33:44.880
<v Speaker 1>weekend said he would not. Um, but the President, as

0:33:44.920 --> 0:33:46.800
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned, said he would. He's going to be at

0:33:46.800 --> 0:33:49.360
<v Speaker 1>the White House apparently tomorrow, and he said whether the

0:33:49.440 --> 0:33:52.680
<v Speaker 1>votes are counted or not fully, he will declare victory. Um.

0:33:53.320 --> 0:33:55.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, I think it's going to depend an awful

0:33:55.080 --> 0:33:57.040
<v Speaker 1>lot on the margin if it's a you know, I

0:33:57.040 --> 0:34:00.000
<v Speaker 1>think if it's a large margin that Biden has won by,

0:34:00.160 --> 0:34:02.280
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it will happen. If it's close, though,

0:34:02.320 --> 0:34:04.680
<v Speaker 1>I think we're going to see them filing lawsuits, and

0:34:04.720 --> 0:34:07.000
<v Speaker 1>I think we're going to see two thousand, you know,

0:34:07.080 --> 0:34:09.800
<v Speaker 1>in on steroids, and you know a few states versus

0:34:09.840 --> 0:34:12.480
<v Speaker 1>just one. Well, and I do wonder. I mean, from

0:34:12.520 --> 0:34:15.839
<v Speaker 1>what I understand, Florida, I think, Arizona, North Carolina. Those

0:34:15.840 --> 0:34:18.440
<v Speaker 1>are some of the states where early voting has been

0:34:18.440 --> 0:34:21.839
<v Speaker 1>happening for a long time and they've already count been

0:34:21.880 --> 0:34:23.600
<v Speaker 1>counting for a couple of weeks. I mean, what are

0:34:23.640 --> 0:34:25.600
<v Speaker 1>the key states that we need to kind of watch

0:34:25.600 --> 0:34:28.040
<v Speaker 1>because you've been so smart in reminding us it's not

0:34:28.280 --> 0:34:29.759
<v Speaker 1>that's why we don't look at the national polls. You've

0:34:29.760 --> 0:34:31.880
<v Speaker 1>got to look at the individual states. Right, It's fifty

0:34:31.960 --> 0:34:35.160
<v Speaker 1>separate elections going on essentially, and it all comes down

0:34:35.160 --> 0:34:38.320
<v Speaker 1>to electoral college and who gets the vote. So what

0:34:38.440 --> 0:34:40.840
<v Speaker 1>are the states you're going to be watching really closely

0:34:40.880 --> 0:34:45.680
<v Speaker 1>tomorrow night? I think early tomorrow we should be watching Florida, Georgia,

0:34:45.920 --> 0:34:48.920
<v Speaker 1>North Carolina. As you mentioned Florida for instance, as a

0:34:49.000 --> 0:34:52.719
<v Speaker 1>long history with mail and ballots there, we expect that

0:34:52.800 --> 0:34:56.440
<v Speaker 1>they will be releasing results early. And if the you know,

0:34:56.520 --> 0:34:59.920
<v Speaker 1>Joe Biden wins one of those, that would pretend to

0:35:00.080 --> 0:35:02.879
<v Speaker 1>bad sign for the president. If the president holds out

0:35:02.880 --> 0:35:04.680
<v Speaker 1>in all of those and the big questions to me

0:35:04.680 --> 0:35:08.239
<v Speaker 1>are Georgia and North Carolina. Then this will shift to them,

0:35:08.280 --> 0:35:12.239
<v Speaker 1>you know, the Midwest, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. UM. So I

0:35:12.280 --> 0:35:15.080
<v Speaker 1>will be watching for those early sun belt states first

0:35:15.440 --> 0:35:18.120
<v Speaker 1>because if the president and now, of course, if the

0:35:18.120 --> 0:35:21.280
<v Speaker 1>President exceeds expectations and does really well in those states,

0:35:21.719 --> 0:35:24.080
<v Speaker 1>then he could you know, match what he did last

0:35:24.120 --> 0:35:26.800
<v Speaker 1>time around, but we suspect it will be at least

0:35:26.960 --> 0:35:29.520
<v Speaker 1>closer than it was last time. What are the states

0:35:29.520 --> 0:35:31.200
<v Speaker 1>that we've got to be really smart about that they're

0:35:31.239 --> 0:35:34.920
<v Speaker 1>only starting early voting counts, you know on election day,

0:35:34.960 --> 0:35:37.799
<v Speaker 1>which we know physically is going to be probably impossible

0:35:37.880 --> 0:35:40.320
<v Speaker 1>to count and get to all of them. Is it Ohio?

0:35:40.440 --> 0:35:43.320
<v Speaker 1>Is it Pennsylvania? The biggie to me is going to

0:35:43.400 --> 0:35:46.680
<v Speaker 1>be Pennsylvania because we know that, you know, the sheer

0:35:46.800 --> 0:35:49.239
<v Speaker 1>number that they are receiving and the way that they're

0:35:49.239 --> 0:35:52.200
<v Speaker 1>going to be proceeding and when they start means we

0:35:52.320 --> 0:35:54.920
<v Speaker 1>probably won't get elected, won't get results out of there

0:35:54.920 --> 0:35:58.080
<v Speaker 1>on Tuesday night, and of course they're receiving them well.

0:35:58.320 --> 0:36:01.600
<v Speaker 1>Also North Carolina. So I think those states, you know,

0:36:01.920 --> 0:36:03.920
<v Speaker 1>North Carolina, we may know a bit early, but I

0:36:03.920 --> 0:36:06.279
<v Speaker 1>think Pennsylvania is going to be the big one, and

0:36:06.320 --> 0:36:09.919
<v Speaker 1>again that's going to be critically important if everything comes

0:36:09.920 --> 0:36:12.920
<v Speaker 1>down to those Midwestern states, and of course Pennsylvania is

0:36:12.960 --> 0:36:16.239
<v Speaker 1>the one that the President has the best shot of winning. Um.

0:36:16.280 --> 0:36:19.040
<v Speaker 1>You know, Wisconsin, Michigan, the polls at least seemed to

0:36:19.080 --> 0:36:21.880
<v Speaker 1>suggest Biden have a much larger margin there. What are

0:36:21.880 --> 0:36:26.880
<v Speaker 1>you anticipating tomorrow night, Um, I'm anticipating probably one of

0:36:26.920 --> 0:36:30.960
<v Speaker 1>those scenarios where the President holds some of those states

0:36:31.080 --> 0:36:34.319
<v Speaker 1>and we do come down to a Pennsylvania. Um. You know,

0:36:34.440 --> 0:36:37.759
<v Speaker 1>I would be stunned if Joe Biden won Florida. But

0:36:37.880 --> 0:36:40.000
<v Speaker 1>if he does, it's going to be a very very

0:36:40.040 --> 0:36:43.400
<v Speaker 1>good night for Democrats. Florida has not been kind in

0:36:43.440 --> 0:36:46.719
<v Speaker 1>the past, the last conditorial race to Democrats. So I'm

0:36:46.760 --> 0:36:49.880
<v Speaker 1>really curious to see from those early states that we

0:36:49.880 --> 0:36:52.400
<v Speaker 1>get results out of. You know, if Biden happens to

0:36:52.440 --> 0:36:55.480
<v Speaker 1>take that one, or a Georgia or certainly at Texas,

0:36:55.520 --> 0:36:58.839
<v Speaker 1>this could change the map for many elections to come.

0:36:58.880 --> 0:37:01.560
<v Speaker 1>And also votes very well for Joe Biden. But I

0:37:01.640 --> 0:37:04.719
<v Speaker 1>suspect the President will do a bit better and then

0:37:04.920 --> 0:37:08.040
<v Speaker 1>we may come down to a Pennsylvania what does it say.

0:37:08.080 --> 0:37:10.640
<v Speaker 1>More broadly, I think about your teaching genior class and

0:37:10.719 --> 0:37:12.759
<v Speaker 1>that you know, we've been having conversations in my home

0:37:12.840 --> 0:37:16.319
<v Speaker 1>that I mean, it really is so close. Despite you

0:37:16.360 --> 0:37:18.600
<v Speaker 1>could have, depending on where you are in the country,

0:37:18.640 --> 0:37:20.799
<v Speaker 1>it could feel like it's a very red country or

0:37:20.880 --> 0:37:24.719
<v Speaker 1>a very blue country. But yet it really is very divided.

0:37:25.680 --> 0:37:28.160
<v Speaker 1>It's very divided, and I think you know, to me

0:37:28.239 --> 0:37:30.759
<v Speaker 1>from a broader perspective, I think if we go back

0:37:30.800 --> 0:37:35.080
<v Speaker 1>to sixteen and you have somebody winning by three million

0:37:35.160 --> 0:37:38.320
<v Speaker 1>votes and somebody else getting the president winning the popular

0:37:38.400 --> 0:37:40.440
<v Speaker 1>roles three million, and somebody else getting the presidency by

0:37:40.480 --> 0:37:44.520
<v Speaker 1>seventy seven thousand, I think that discrepancy. If we see

0:37:44.719 --> 0:37:47.560
<v Speaker 1>and I'm not sure, but if we see something broader

0:37:47.560 --> 0:37:50.120
<v Speaker 1>than that this time around, I think we really do

0:37:50.239 --> 0:37:54.240
<v Speaker 1>have to ask about whether we should have an electoral college, because,

0:37:54.280 --> 0:37:57.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, two for seventy seven thousand people's votes to

0:37:57.920 --> 0:38:01.560
<v Speaker 1>count that much more than three million or more, that

0:38:01.600 --> 0:38:05.040
<v Speaker 1>seems highly undemocratic too many people, and I think that

0:38:05.280 --> 0:38:08.799
<v Speaker 1>only sort of frustrates this sense that we don't live

0:38:08.800 --> 0:38:11.880
<v Speaker 1>in a fair, transparent democracy. Yeah. I can't help but

0:38:11.920 --> 0:38:14.399
<v Speaker 1>think if the forefathers were watching all of this and saying,

0:38:14.440 --> 0:38:16.080
<v Speaker 1>you know what, guys, we created that system a long

0:38:16.120 --> 0:38:17.960
<v Speaker 1>time ago. It's time to maybe do a little bit

0:38:17.960 --> 0:38:21.560
<v Speaker 1>of a rethink, right absolutely. I think that's a big thing.

0:38:21.560 --> 0:38:23.720
<v Speaker 1>And I think, of course we have to rethink polling

0:38:23.760 --> 0:38:27.160
<v Speaker 1>too if we got this wrong. Oh man, such good stuff.

0:38:27.280 --> 0:38:29.759
<v Speaker 1>I love, love, love your insight. Thank you so much,

0:38:29.760 --> 0:38:31.799
<v Speaker 1>and I knew you've been doing a lot for us,

0:38:31.800 --> 0:38:35.040
<v Speaker 1>and you're going to continue through election and thereafter. Blueberg

0:38:35.040 --> 0:38:37.279
<v Speaker 1>News political contributor and I own a college professor of

0:38:37.280 --> 0:38:40.720
<v Speaker 1>political science, Jeanie Zeno on the phone from New Rochelle,

0:38:40.880 --> 0:38:52.360
<v Speaker 1>New York Journal. Now, but you let me drive, no, no, please,

0:38:55.080 --> 0:39:11.200
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive. Strive time question. This is the

0:39:11.360 --> 0:39:15.640
<v Speaker 1>drive to the Globe. Thanks, we'll drying us. Dawn on

0:39:15.800 --> 0:39:18.640
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio, It is time for the Drive to the close.

0:39:18.719 --> 0:39:21.160
<v Speaker 1>Back with this is David Did's, President, chief investment officer

0:39:21.200 --> 0:39:23.880
<v Speaker 1>at Point View Wealth Management seven point three billion in

0:39:24.000 --> 0:39:27.600
<v Speaker 1>assets under management. David is with us once again, on

0:39:27.640 --> 0:39:30.000
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Semit, New Jersey. David, nice to have

0:39:30.080 --> 0:39:33.480
<v Speaker 1>you back with us. This is a jam packed week, man,

0:39:34.640 --> 0:39:38.880
<v Speaker 1>between the election, between the Fed, between the Job's report,

0:39:38.920 --> 0:39:41.960
<v Speaker 1>there's just so much going on, We're still getting through earnings.

0:39:42.400 --> 0:39:44.360
<v Speaker 1>How do you make sense of it? And I'm curious

0:39:44.560 --> 0:39:48.279
<v Speaker 1>our investors, are you finding more new money coming or

0:39:48.760 --> 0:39:50.760
<v Speaker 1>what are some of the interesting trends that are happening

0:39:50.800 --> 0:39:54.120
<v Speaker 1>right now? Yeah? Absolutely so. We've really got a trifect

0:39:54.280 --> 0:39:57.040
<v Speaker 1>of issues that are confronting us. That would be the election,

0:39:57.400 --> 0:40:00.640
<v Speaker 1>that would be the vaccine, that would be stimulus. UM.

0:40:00.840 --> 0:40:03.359
<v Speaker 1>And what I've been telling investors really is just a

0:40:03.360 --> 0:40:07.560
<v Speaker 1>matter of time here before we're going to get some resolution.

0:40:07.960 --> 0:40:10.120
<v Speaker 1>Hopefully we know more at least by the end of

0:40:10.160 --> 0:40:13.960
<v Speaker 1>the week as to how the elections works out. UM investors,

0:40:14.000 --> 0:40:15.880
<v Speaker 1>I think what they want now is just kind of

0:40:16.000 --> 0:40:18.480
<v Speaker 1>a clear signal as to what's going to happen is

0:40:18.520 --> 0:40:21.759
<v Speaker 1>the uncertainty. I think investors have gotten comfortable that, no

0:40:21.800 --> 0:40:24.960
<v Speaker 1>matter who wins, their marching origin is going to be clear.

0:40:25.440 --> 0:40:28.359
<v Speaker 1>You know, get the vaccine going, get the stimulus going,

0:40:28.520 --> 0:40:32.239
<v Speaker 1>get this economy going against. I think they're comfortable there. Um.

0:40:32.280 --> 0:40:35.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, in terms of the stimulus, I don't know

0:40:35.000 --> 0:40:39.200
<v Speaker 1>whether we're gonna get anything in the lame duct session here,

0:40:39.400 --> 0:40:41.920
<v Speaker 1>but we'll definitely have something before the end of January.

0:40:42.120 --> 0:40:44.640
<v Speaker 1>In terms of what clients investors are doing right now.

0:40:44.800 --> 0:40:50.360
<v Speaker 1>I think they're basically just just staying put here um.

0:40:50.920 --> 0:40:54.720
<v Speaker 1>Obviously October was a rugged month. On the other hand,

0:40:55.080 --> 0:40:58.439
<v Speaker 1>the smaller guys a smaller fries to wrestle through thousand UM.

0:40:58.840 --> 0:41:02.040
<v Speaker 1>They were up about to percent in the musto. Obviously,

0:41:02.080 --> 0:41:04.560
<v Speaker 1>it's a mixed market and we're seeing some rotations to

0:41:04.680 --> 0:41:06.360
<v Speaker 1>some of the areas of the market that have been

0:41:06.440 --> 0:41:08.839
<v Speaker 1>left behind. Her Well, that's exactly how we kicked it off.

0:41:09.160 --> 0:41:11.239
<v Speaker 1>On this Monday, we were talking with our Gina Martin

0:41:11.280 --> 0:41:15.440
<v Speaker 1>Adams and she just talked about market rotation and you know,

0:41:15.800 --> 0:41:18.920
<v Speaker 1>said specifically, it's really an earnings thing. You know that

0:41:19.120 --> 0:41:21.800
<v Speaker 1>tech was the big story back in the second quarter,

0:41:22.000 --> 0:41:25.799
<v Speaker 1>and rightfully so those valuations were justified because they were

0:41:25.800 --> 0:41:29.680
<v Speaker 1>producing earnings. But now we were seeing, you know, change

0:41:29.719 --> 0:41:32.440
<v Speaker 1>in terms of thought and that we're seeing market rotation.

0:41:32.560 --> 0:41:36.080
<v Speaker 1>She thinks that tech will undershoot earnings growth from much.

0:41:37.200 --> 0:41:39.840
<v Speaker 1>Do you agree with that, and that this market rotation

0:41:39.960 --> 0:41:42.600
<v Speaker 1>might stay with us for some time or if we

0:41:42.680 --> 0:41:46.839
<v Speaker 1>get more stimulus than that could change things. Bottom line

0:41:46.920 --> 0:41:50.840
<v Speaker 1>is stay diversified, you know, call but everybody says that

0:41:50.920 --> 0:41:55.240
<v Speaker 1>all the time. David the timing of of a rotation

0:41:55.360 --> 0:41:58.960
<v Speaker 1>is always difficult. But what we have seen here is

0:41:58.960 --> 0:42:02.440
<v Speaker 1>that although by and large, other than perhaps for Twitter,

0:42:02.920 --> 0:42:07.799
<v Speaker 1>the megacap tech results were stellar. The problem is they're

0:42:07.880 --> 0:42:12.080
<v Speaker 1>up anywhere from thirty seven to se your day, and

0:42:12.160 --> 0:42:15.560
<v Speaker 1>so the valuations for two stretched. It was that they

0:42:15.560 --> 0:42:19.480
<v Speaker 1>weren't meeting expectations. They weren't meeting the whisper numbers. So

0:42:19.840 --> 0:42:22.480
<v Speaker 1>that cause that tells me you have to be cautious

0:42:22.480 --> 0:42:25.479
<v Speaker 1>in that area. But what what I am saying here

0:42:25.760 --> 0:42:30.400
<v Speaker 1>is generally dividend paying stocks hold their own, if not outperformed.

0:42:30.520 --> 0:42:33.040
<v Speaker 1>But starting in February when we started to get the

0:42:33.080 --> 0:42:36.880
<v Speaker 1>COVID coming in, the eighty highest dividend paying stocks of

0:42:36.960 --> 0:42:41.400
<v Speaker 1>the spire are down twenty six percent while the SNP

0:42:41.680 --> 0:42:44.759
<v Speaker 1>is flat, pulled up by those megacap techs. Now, what

0:42:44.800 --> 0:42:47.960
<v Speaker 1>what can I tell you from that? That disparity is

0:42:48.000 --> 0:42:50.000
<v Speaker 1>not going to happen in the next nine months. So

0:42:50.040 --> 0:42:52.799
<v Speaker 1>the question is through the dividend payers start moving up

0:42:53.040 --> 0:42:55.880
<v Speaker 1>or the mega tech start moving down. Is probably a

0:42:55.960 --> 0:42:58.359
<v Speaker 1>little bit of both, and that's where these dividend paying

0:42:58.440 --> 0:43:00.880
<v Speaker 1>stocks I see a lot of opportunit to me, particularly

0:43:00.880 --> 0:43:02.839
<v Speaker 1>as you point out earlier. The Federal reserve is really

0:43:02.840 --> 0:43:04.799
<v Speaker 1>going to be on hold for a long period of time.

0:43:04.880 --> 0:43:07.839
<v Speaker 1>It's such a great old kind of play, right when

0:43:07.920 --> 0:43:10.439
<v Speaker 1>it comes to dividends. But I mean, when you look

0:43:10.440 --> 0:43:12.400
<v Speaker 1>at some of these companies, and I guess it explains

0:43:12.400 --> 0:43:14.680
<v Speaker 1>why you like a name like Coca Cola or maybe

0:43:14.840 --> 0:43:19.160
<v Speaker 1>a name like Chevron. Yeah, so let's talk about Coca Cola.

0:43:19.320 --> 0:43:22.279
<v Speaker 1>Coca Cola in terms of beverages and bin is three

0:43:22.320 --> 0:43:26.000
<v Speaker 1>times the size of his next largest competitor in that

0:43:26.120 --> 0:43:30.719
<v Speaker 1>out non alcoholic space. That gives you so many scale benefits. Now,

0:43:30.760 --> 0:43:32.960
<v Speaker 1>normally you can't get a company like this, which is

0:43:33.000 --> 0:43:35.839
<v Speaker 1>the differdend close to four percent, and here you have

0:43:36.000 --> 0:43:40.359
<v Speaker 1>it is down from it's fifty two week Hi, So

0:43:40.440 --> 0:43:43.720
<v Speaker 1>why is that? Is? Because guess what we pay less

0:43:43.719 --> 0:43:45.880
<v Speaker 1>for coke when we drink it at home as opposed

0:43:45.880 --> 0:43:48.960
<v Speaker 1>when we got to the ballpark or to the restaurant

0:43:48.960 --> 0:43:51.600
<v Speaker 1>and buy. And I think at some point, maybe a

0:43:51.680 --> 0:43:53.799
<v Speaker 1>year from now, could take a while, we will be

0:43:53.880 --> 0:43:56.440
<v Speaker 1>back to normal. And of course you're gonna get that

0:43:57.400 --> 0:43:59.399
<v Speaker 1>pick up in the stock price of cocause it goes

0:43:59.440 --> 0:44:02.880
<v Speaker 1>back up, and meanwhile, you're collecting that three percent plus dividends.

0:44:03.120 --> 0:44:06.120
<v Speaker 1>That seems to me a low risk way to stay

0:44:06.160 --> 0:44:08.440
<v Speaker 1>in their relative to when you have a you know,

0:44:08.880 --> 0:44:11.920
<v Speaker 1>eighty basis point and the ten your treasury. All right, Chevron,

0:44:12.000 --> 0:44:14.960
<v Speaker 1>talk about a dividend. I mean that's a killer. We're

0:44:14.960 --> 0:44:19.160
<v Speaker 1>talking about over seven Yeah, you know, it's seven point

0:44:19.200 --> 0:44:22.040
<v Speaker 1>three percent. And what I also like about Chevron is

0:44:22.239 --> 0:44:26.400
<v Speaker 1>it's a member of the exclusive dividend aristocrats club. What

0:44:26.440 --> 0:44:28.719
<v Speaker 1>does that mean, Carol? That means it is not only

0:44:28.760 --> 0:44:31.480
<v Speaker 1>paid to the dividend, but increased it for twenty five

0:44:31.600 --> 0:44:34.600
<v Speaker 1>years in a row. That shows to me the commitment

0:44:34.680 --> 0:44:39.319
<v Speaker 1>to make sure you're returning the profits to the shareholders. Now,

0:44:39.560 --> 0:44:43.760
<v Speaker 1>certainly energy has been under pressure. We're paying the lowest

0:44:43.800 --> 0:44:46.000
<v Speaker 1>prices of the pump now is we have in twelve years.

0:44:46.320 --> 0:44:49.160
<v Speaker 1>But with the amount of deficit spending, with the economy

0:44:49.200 --> 0:44:52.080
<v Speaker 1>potential in the rebound, my guess is energy prices go

0:44:52.239 --> 0:44:55.920
<v Speaker 1>up from here. Chevron conservative balance sheet, one of the

0:44:56.000 --> 0:44:58.400
<v Speaker 1>largest in the world, is well poised to take advantage

0:44:58.440 --> 0:45:01.879
<v Speaker 1>of that percent. So you've got to really I mean,

0:45:02.000 --> 0:45:04.239
<v Speaker 1>I understand the dividend, but you really do lose a

0:45:04.239 --> 0:45:08.799
<v Speaker 1>lot in terms of the share price, no question about it.

0:45:08.960 --> 0:45:12.000
<v Speaker 1>People who bought it a year ago. Hurden. I'm talking

0:45:12.040 --> 0:45:15.360
<v Speaker 1>about getting involved now and of course to regain that.

0:45:16.120 --> 0:45:18.560
<v Speaker 1>With the way the math works, that's almost a double look.

0:45:18.600 --> 0:45:21.560
<v Speaker 1>If that takes six years plus collecting your seven percent,

0:45:21.680 --> 0:45:23.360
<v Speaker 1>I think you're gonna do better than most people in

0:45:23.400 --> 0:45:26.239
<v Speaker 1>the marketplace. So one more name, I just want to

0:45:26.239 --> 0:45:29.279
<v Speaker 1>ask you about Affleck. The insurance guys. What is it?

0:45:29.360 --> 0:45:33.640
<v Speaker 1>What's the thinking? They're same thing? Well, so Affleck isn't

0:45:33.640 --> 0:45:35.960
<v Speaker 1>that beaten down insurance group. But the beauty of an

0:45:35.960 --> 0:45:40.760
<v Speaker 1>insurance company is that they don't have that um tricky

0:45:41.000 --> 0:45:43.880
<v Speaker 1>loan portfolios. They have to wonder whether the loans are

0:45:43.880 --> 0:45:47.160
<v Speaker 1>gonna be repaid. You know, here's a company again who's

0:45:47.320 --> 0:45:50.759
<v Speaker 1>increased that dividend for thirty seven years in a row.

0:45:51.200 --> 0:45:53.480
<v Speaker 1>Normally that dividend has a one handle. Now it's over

0:45:53.560 --> 0:45:56.879
<v Speaker 1>three percent. But they're only paying a quarter of their

0:45:56.880 --> 0:45:59.320
<v Speaker 1>earnings out for dividends to they have room to continue

0:45:59.320 --> 0:46:01.799
<v Speaker 1>to increase it. In fact, that dividends going up eight

0:46:01.800 --> 0:46:03.799
<v Speaker 1>percent per year for the last five to ten years.

0:46:04.000 --> 0:46:07.160
<v Speaker 1>It's a supplemental insurance program. You know, as we know,

0:46:07.560 --> 0:46:11.640
<v Speaker 1>everything's focused on COVID. People are cautious about spending on

0:46:11.680 --> 0:46:15.400
<v Speaker 1>anything that's not an actual essential. But I do believe

0:46:15.440 --> 0:46:18.160
<v Speaker 1>that people will come back to continuing to expand the

0:46:18.200 --> 0:46:21.080
<v Speaker 1>Affleck program. They're big in Japan. The US DOL has

0:46:21.080 --> 0:46:23.799
<v Speaker 1>been weakening. That helps them. And of course they have

0:46:23.840 --> 0:46:27.960
<v Speaker 1>a huge stock buyback program one million shares who want

0:46:27.960 --> 0:46:29.880
<v Speaker 1>to buy back as soon as they can. All right,

0:46:29.920 --> 0:46:32.040
<v Speaker 1>Gonna leave it on that note, David, Thank you so much.

0:46:32.160 --> 0:46:34.879
<v Speaker 1>David Died's president and chief investment officer of at point

0:46:34.960 --> 0:46:38.680
<v Speaker 1>View Wealth Management, seven point three billion annaucets under management

0:46:39.200 --> 0:46:42.320
<v Speaker 1>UH and liking a common theme the dividends Coca Cola,

0:46:42.480 --> 0:46:45.760
<v Speaker 1>Chevron and Afflack. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg

0:46:45.800 --> 0:46:49.160
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at

0:46:49.160 --> 0:46:51.279
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, and be sort of check out our

0:46:51.360 --> 0:46:54.240
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0:46:54.480 --> 0:46:56.600
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0:46:56.600 --> 0:47:02.800
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