1 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. 2 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: I'm Mike Reagan, a senior editor at Bloomberg and this 3 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: week on the show. For several years, cryptocurrencies were considered 4 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: fringe investments on Wall Street, but this week a massive 5 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: intro day plunge in bitcoin had some serious ripple effects 6 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 1: on the stock market. Is this type of contagion the 7 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 1: new abnormal for markets? We'll get into it with a 8 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,440 Speaker 1: veteran market strategists, and we'll also get his take on 9 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: what type of stocks look attractive these days in this 10 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 1: strange new world of risk taking that we're in. But first, 11 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett tell us who this week's mystery co host is. 12 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: This week's mystery co host is Vill Donna Hi Rich. 13 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: Vill Donna is a cross asset reporter for Bloomberg in 14 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:02,279 Speaker 1: New York, and she owns a rescue from Kuwait. Her 15 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: hobbies include running marathons, watching videos about grammar on, looking 16 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 1: for typos, hint stories that Mike Reagan has already edited. 17 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: That's all true, Vildna, correct. You know to me? My 18 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: favorite fun Vildona fact is the cat from Kuwait. I 19 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: need to hear that story. How did you rescue a 20 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 1: cat from Kuwait. Oh, it's a state secret. I can't 21 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 1: tell you. She is a rescue from Kuwait. We actually 22 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: worked with small organization and there's a woman who works 23 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: for one of the bigger airlines and she does a 24 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: lot of US to Mid East trips and she puts 25 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: them on the plane basically and and brings them in. 26 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: And that's how my sister got her cat. That's how 27 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: I got my cat. So that's pretty good. Katie Greifeld 28 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: had a cat delivered the plane in some mysterious circumstances. Cat. 29 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: You cut. People are weird. I don't know. That's not 30 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: how we get dogs. No one would. No one would 31 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: allow my dog on a plane. I guess is part 32 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: of the thing. But we love them so much, I guess, so, 33 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: I guess. So that's it. But the Donna. I'm very 34 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: excited for this week's guest. Um. As you know, I've 35 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: been doing this job a few years. Our guest has 36 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: been doing it for his job for a few years, 37 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 1: and we've never actually met. So I thank you for 38 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,519 Speaker 1: putting us all together this week. I will warn you, though, 39 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: the Donna, our guest is from Boston, and there's He's 40 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 1: got a great reputation as a nice guy. But there's 41 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: always a risk with people from Boston at this time 42 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:34,679 Speaker 1: of year, and that's all they really want to talk 43 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 1: about is the Red Sox. So I think we'll allow that. 44 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: I don't know if some of our New York based 45 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: listeners will will care for that, but I'll allow a 46 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: little Red Sox talk. I'm from Philly. I it doesn't 47 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: bother me that much. But I need you if he 48 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: starts talking about the Celtics, I need you to cut 49 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: him off, no problem, alright, if you hear the names 50 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: Kemba Walker or Jayson Tatum, just hit that mute button 51 00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: on him instantly, right, I'll let him talk about talk 52 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 1: O Fall. I like that guy. That's my favorite. That's 53 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: my favorite Celtic Taco. Fall is the only person I've 54 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 1: ever seen dunk cat basketball without leaving his feet. So 55 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: that's made him one of my favorite players of all time. Well, 56 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: let's bring him into the show here. He is the 57 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: chief market strategist at National Securities. His name is Art Hogan. Art. 58 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. Thanks so much for having me. 59 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 1: It's a really a pleasure, Art, And you know what 60 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: I do want to get into that idea of the 61 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 1: cryptocurrency contagion. But I was reading near bio Vildnosan over 62 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: your bio, and one thing jumped out at me that 63 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 1: I find really interesting, and that's you started off your 64 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: career on the floor of the Boston Stock Market, um, 65 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: Boston Stock Exchange rather. And I find that interesting because 66 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: when I started up Bloomberg UM just years ago. Uh, 67 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: it was right when the computerization of markets was was 68 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 1: in full swing and all these regional exchanges were kind 69 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 1: of getting swallowed up by by the bigger players. I 70 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: think it was Nastac that that bought Boston. But I 71 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: has been curious. I never quite wrapped my head around 72 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: sort of what the distinction was between these regional exchanges. 73 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously different type of clam chowder served in 74 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 1: Boston then uh New York Exchange. But I'm curious, like, 75 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: what was the scene like at the Boston Stock Exchange 76 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: on picturing Maybe is it the type of thing where 77 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 1: New England companies would would perhaps have a little bit 78 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: more liquidity on an exchange like that? What was what 79 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: was the purpose of of these regional exchanges like Boston 80 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 1: and kind of what was it like working there. Yeah, 81 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: that's such a great question, and you're your concept of 82 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: hto regional exchanges is a very popular misconception, right. So 83 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 1: the regional exchanges were trading just about everything that was 84 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 1: traded on the New York Stocker Change and at the 85 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,599 Speaker 1: time the American Stock Exchange, and what they really were 86 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: was a national market system. So there was seven regional 87 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: exchanges too on the West coast, one in Los Angeles, 88 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: one in San Francisco, There's one in Chicago, the Midwest 89 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: Stock Exchange, which was the largest, Philadelphia had its own exchange, 90 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: and Boston had one of exchanges. So they were well 91 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: over a hundred years old by the time I got there, 92 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:01,600 Speaker 1: and they were really competition for the New York Stock Exchange. 93 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 1: So think about it like this, The New York Stock 94 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: Exchange would do about eighty percent of the listed volume 95 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: and the regionals would do That's interesting, And would it 96 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 1: be the type of thing where you know, say a 97 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: firm like Fidelity would would do more trading on Boston 98 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: than would New York, you know, a Boston area firm. 99 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: That was certainly the case, at least for me. I 100 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: worked for Fidelity, so I was actually a Fidelity employee 101 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: and a floor broker on the exchange. And just to 102 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 1: give you a sense of the time that I was there, 103 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: I was there for the October crash seven, where the 104 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 1: market went down twenty two point six percent in a day. 105 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,119 Speaker 1: To put some context around that, that would be about 106 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 1: seventy points for the DAW to go down on a 107 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: given day like today. So it was a you know, 108 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: so pretty crazy times, and electronic trading really was at 109 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 1: its infancy, so we were actually writing tickets and ripping 110 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: things up and then there was a mess on the 111 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:57,719 Speaker 1: floor and that October uh Monday of seven, we were 112 00:05:57,800 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: up to our knees in paper because it was just 113 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: the craziest day anybody had ever seen. Or let's let's 114 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: get into that idea of crypto speaking of crazy things. Um, 115 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 1: you know, first of all, my nuts to think that 116 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 1: that plunging bitcoin did have some contagion in the stock market. 117 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 1: I'm and I'm talking beyond sort of the the names 118 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 1: that are exposed to to crypto, like Tesla and UH 119 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 1: micro Strategy and those type of stocks. It felt to 120 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 1: me like it dragged the whole market down. Is is 121 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,600 Speaker 1: that your sense to well, it's interesting that's there's a 122 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,160 Speaker 1: lot of people that are really coming across that concept 123 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: and saying, hey, you know, we've we're seeing cryptocurrencies down 124 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 1: some thirty in a single day in the markets down 125 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 1: to there must be some correlation. So the obvious correlations 126 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:43,040 Speaker 1: are the things you just mentioned that things that are 127 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 1: directly tied and correlated to cryptocurrencies. But I think in 128 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 1: a real sense, I step back and say what's happened 129 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: in the second quarter, and I would say that we've 130 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: removed a lot of speculative excesses in different esset classes. 131 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 1: So for example, spacts, which were all the rage in 132 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:00,040 Speaker 1: the first quarter, have really fallen upon hard times in 133 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 1: the second quarter. Right, we had a record number of 134 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 1: SPACs last year, and in the first quarter we beat 135 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 1: that record, and all of a sudden, supply had really 136 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: swamped demand. So a lot of those spacts that came 137 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: out and came public have pulled back significantly. We saw 138 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: the same thing in electronic vehicle related stocks. We've certainly 139 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: seen that over the last three days in crypto So 140 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: I think it's much more they risk off and remove 141 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: some speculative excesses and less of a correlation where people 142 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 1: are looking at this and saying if people are selling bitcoin, 143 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: they must be selling the SMP five funder. Well, Art, 144 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: can I actually ask you to sort of help define 145 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 1: what is going on with with markets right now? Because 146 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 1: when we think back to last year, it was really 147 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 1: easy to see who was leading markets. It was tech 148 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: up until November right when you had some of the 149 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: vaccine announcements, and then even after that you sort of 150 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: had some clear and delineated market leadership. And I feel 151 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: like over the last couple of weeks the narrative has 152 00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: been really difficult to define, to say the least, besides 153 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: everything else that's sort of going on on a day 154 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: to day basis. But so, can you help us make 155 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: sense of of how we even describe what is going 156 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: on with markets? I think if we back that lends 157 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: up a little bit and say what happened in that's 158 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: not happening in twenty one is a pretty good way 159 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: to give a snapshot of what we've seen this year 160 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: so far. So was all about what it was that 161 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: was helping us get through a pandemic, everything that helped 162 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 1: us work from home, like the Zoom app that we're 163 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: on right now, like the all the the information technology 164 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,200 Speaker 1: that made our lives easier and possible. The work from 165 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 1: home crowd that that the pandemic darlings were the rage, 166 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 1: and they were until about Labor Day, and around Labor 167 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: Day and and and things really getting stretched. The relative 168 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 1: strength index for the maastic and positive nastic one had 169 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: gotten to significantly overbought, and we saw a significant rotation. 170 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: We saw a pretty good draw down in the nastac 171 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 1: the better part of nine after Labor Day, and a 172 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 1: rotation into aconomically sensitive cycnicals which had largely been ignored. 173 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 1: And that was really the beginning of that reopening trade. 174 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: So people decided that we need to start selling those 175 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: things that have been working and got into you know, 176 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: excessive valuations towards the end of the year, and and 177 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: that proceeded to continue that rotation all the way into 178 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: the first quarter of this year. So we came into 179 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:22,599 Speaker 1: the first quarter of this year and that rotation was 180 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 1: pretty strong. You saw pretty good ramp up and economically 181 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: sensitive cycnicals, everything from industrials to financials and energy, which 182 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 1: is the best performing sector in the SP five hundred 183 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 1: right now. And and the money was coming from the 184 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 1: selling of technology, for example, but a lot of the 185 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 1: other pandemic darlings. So I think that that sort of 186 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: set the table for both of those trades to get 187 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: stretched in the first quarter. And what we've seen since 188 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: the second quarter began is that back and forth rotation 189 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: based on how far we oversold technology and how far 190 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: we've over bought some of the cyclicals. I think the 191 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 1: the the pandemic darlings got oversold and I think that 192 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: some of the cycnicles have been over bought. So we 193 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: keep going back and forth on a week by week 194 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: basis where that rotation reverses itself, and I think that's 195 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: where we're going to be for most of the summer, 196 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:20,079 Speaker 1: you know, just to get back a little bit to 197 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 1: that relationship between crypto and the equity markets. To me, 198 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: I've always thought of it as crypto as kind of 199 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: um almost like a safety valve for this sort of 200 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: over excessive risk taking and sort of exuberant sentiment out there, 201 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,680 Speaker 1: especially with all the liquidity we have UH in the 202 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: markets right now, and and how that you know, it's 203 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:46,840 Speaker 1: a nice little safety valve for for the stock market. 204 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:50,640 Speaker 1: You know it perhaps you know, can can siphon off 205 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: some of that froth that otherwise would have you know, 206 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,319 Speaker 1: been pumped directly into the stock market, you know, as 207 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: the case was perhaps in the dot com era, where 208 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: all the all the speculation, uh, and all that euphoria 209 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:07,320 Speaker 1: was focused you right on on the equities and and 210 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 1: all the I p O s coming out. But I 211 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: do wonder, you know, when we look at and not 212 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,559 Speaker 1: just bitcoin. I mean, obviously ethereum is is the hot 213 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: topic these days. Uh, and bitcoin and ethereum also being 214 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 1: you know, sort of the blue chips of the crypto 215 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: world right now. But when you go get further down 216 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:26,680 Speaker 1: the ladder to say doge coin or or some of 217 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: these ridiculous meme coins the names of which I can't 218 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: even say on a on a family podcast like this, 219 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:37,079 Speaker 1: and you watch this this paper wealth be vaporized. Uh, 220 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: it's the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars in 221 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 1: a matter of hours. Ultimately, I I find that to 222 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: be a risky, dangerous thing. But I'm curious how you 223 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: sort of think of that interplay between you know, the 224 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 1: animal spirits uh and the euphoria chasing to get rich 225 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: quick type of trades and crypto. Um, it's not ultimately 226 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 1: a healthy thing for the stock market. Or put that 227 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: sort of ricocheted back and and and be a bad thing. Well, 228 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 1: I think that's an interesting way to set that up, Mike, 229 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: and I think that when you sort of harken back 230 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 1: to we had hundreds of companies that put dot com 231 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 1: at the end of their title went public, and you know, 232 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 1: often times we're up a hundred percent on the first 233 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 1: day of trading and low and beholds. As two thousand 234 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 1: turned to two thousand and one, a lot of those 235 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 1: companies disappeared. Now we have hundreds of cryptocurrencies that have 236 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 1: exploded in value, And to your point, is that a 237 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:33,319 Speaker 1: safety valve of of speculative money finding a place other 238 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: than the stock market? For sure? I think that's that's 239 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 1: certainly the case. I think the way to think about 240 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: crypto in general is the backbone of crypto obviously is blockchain, 241 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 1: and blockchain is likely to be a more important um 242 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 1: paradigm for us in the future, very much like the 243 00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:49,679 Speaker 1: Internet is much more important to us than it was 244 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 1: in We just don't know who the winners and losers 245 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 1: are going to be, and I think it's going to 246 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: play out in a similar fashion. So we're not gonna 247 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: have hundreds of cryptocurrencies will likely have some winners. I 248 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 1: think the basic foundation to that is the technology behind 249 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 1: it that will help us transact business in a more 250 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 1: efficient and a more efficient way. But in terms of investors, 251 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: that just your garden variety investor. You have to know 252 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: this is speculus, and I think that the volatility is 253 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: a feature. It's not it's it's not a bug, it's 254 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 1: a feature. And we've seen since they started Bitcoin it's 255 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:23,559 Speaker 1: had at least half a dozen draw downs um and 256 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 1: we just went through another one. So to to think 257 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 1: about this as a stabile asset classes is the wrong 258 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: way to think about it. And if you're going to 259 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: invest in this, you want to think about something small 260 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: and money that you would only put in a specultive bucket, 261 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: something like a zero to five. And so a lot 262 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 1: of times when people are talking about cryptocurrencies and and 263 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 1: some of the volatility that we see there, they'll tie 264 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:48,440 Speaker 1: it back to retail investors either rushing in or getting burned, 265 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: depending on what's going on. But so, how would you 266 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: how are you and your team thinking about the involvement 267 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: of the retail investor. Obviously it's been a really big 268 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 1: topic for the path year, but then you sort of 269 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: see conflicting data points where you might see inflows, for instance, 270 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,480 Speaker 1: into some retail favorite e t f s, but at 271 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: the same time you're seeing waning call option volumes. So 272 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 1: how are you guys thinking about the involvement of the 273 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: retail investor. Yeah, so the involvement of retail investor in 274 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: crypto is something we sort of have to keep it 275 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 1: at arm's length. We will partner with somebody that runs 276 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 1: a fund, but then that fund is going to charge fees, 277 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 1: so it's probably not the most efficient way to do this, 278 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: you know, in terms of overall advice, we know, make 279 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: sure people know that it's not for the faint of 280 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: heart or what is an orphans and it should be 281 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: treated as a speculative asset class. So I think in 282 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 1: the future, you know, when an e t F is approved, 283 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 1: there'll probably be a lot more retail involvement, but again 284 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: it should be sized to what you would size any 285 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: speculative investment towards. And I think that when we think 286 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 1: about that, we get questions about it all the time, 287 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: But I think that what is healthy into Mike's point 288 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: is the kind of volatility that we've seen this week 289 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 1: is a reminder to everybody that it's not gonna always 290 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: just go up, and nothing's guaranteed here, and it's likely 291 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 1: something you want to be pretty conscious about as you 292 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: tiptoe into it as an investment. I tend to think 293 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 1: of it as a lottery ticket money, you know, stuff, 294 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 1: You're an amount You're not, uh gonna feel a lot 295 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: of pain if if, if you lose on some some 296 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: losing tickets. But I wanted to talk a little bit 297 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: about this perennial debate between growth and value, UH and 298 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 1: in this case the real cyclical parts of the market 299 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: as the reopening of the economies gets stronger and stronger. 300 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 1: I think you've got a pretty interesting approach. You're almost 301 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: sort of, you know, the neutral Switzerland in this debate, UH, 302 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: recommending a kind of a barbell approached where you have 303 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 1: growth on one side of the barbell and more cyclical 304 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 1: stock exposure on on the other side. Unpack that for 305 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: us a little bit. Uh So, what kind of sectors, 306 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: what kind of names are you looking at on both 307 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 1: ends of that barbell. Yeah, so our approach really is 308 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: barbell approach that has growth on one side and cyclicality 309 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 1: on the other, and we want you to have that 310 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: approach because we don't think it's going to be a 311 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 1: binary investment climate ever, right, So we don't think it's 312 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 1: only going to be growth and not value and and 313 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 1: and when we think about value, we think about cyclicality, 314 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 1: especially in a reopening economy. So if you have balance 315 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: where you say, okay, what are the three themes I 316 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: can really get my head wrapped around in growth and 317 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: then we've thrown out cloud computing, cloud security, and five 318 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 1: G is thematics that we like and and and express 319 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 1: those opinions UM that manifest exposure to those themes. And 320 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: then on the other side of that, look at what's 321 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 1: gonna work in cyclicality. So we've we've selected materials, industrials 322 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 1: and financials. A lot of our investors have swapped out 323 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: materials for energy and and happily UM. But what you 324 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: have to do, though, is really important, is every two 325 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: months to keep that barbell balanced, you have to sell 326 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: the winners and buy some of your losers. So in 327 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 1: February was one of the first times in three rotations 328 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: where we actually had to sell some over cyclicality and 329 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 1: put more money into the growth and and and that 330 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:06,680 Speaker 1: level the bar backout so you have equal exposure of exposure. 331 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: And if you had done that for all of you 332 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 1: would have outperformed the SP five foundered by almost five 333 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 1: funder basis points, but four three basis points. And we 334 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: think the same thing is gonna be true this year. 335 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 1: And I think that helps you navigate these rotational markets 336 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: where we have where growth is back, people are buying 337 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 1: the growth names again, or wait a minute, they're back 338 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: to cyclicality where you know, jumping into the financials. The 339 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 1: industrials are doing great, and that gives you some balance. 340 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: And if you set that timer so you know that 341 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: you have to rebalance on a two month basis, you 342 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 1: don't have to make that emotional decision to say I 343 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 1: really don't want to sell my winners and buy some 344 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 1: of my losers, and forces your hand and keeps you 345 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:45,719 Speaker 1: in a diversified portfolio. And of course, the other perennial, 346 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: the new perennial debate is inflation, of course, and I 347 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: know in your recent notes you've written about some of 348 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:57,400 Speaker 1: your thoughts they're saying inflationary pressures will be more temporary. 349 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: So I'm hoping you can sort of bring that into 350 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 1: a conversation and how you're you're thinking about inflationary pressures 351 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 1: and is it your view that even if we do 352 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 1: see some inflation, stocks can still continue to do well. 353 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 1: So one of the concerns that you have is is 354 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,640 Speaker 1: is about inflation? Is margin pressure? Right? Do you get 355 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: margin pressure if your input costs start rising but you're 356 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 1: not able to pass that increased costs of of good 357 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: sold onto the consumer. And through the first quarter earning season, 358 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: we've already heard from some of those companies that have 359 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,359 Speaker 1: said clearly stated we need to raise prices. Some of 360 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: the inflationary pressures we think are going to be temporary, 361 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 1: because there's an old saying that nothing fixes high prices 362 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 1: like high prices and you get a supply response. So 363 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 1: we're starting to see that a bit as capacity utilization 364 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: has gone up and sawmills, so number prices have come 365 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: down about over the course of a week. I think 366 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: that's healthy. I think the same thing will be true 367 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 1: and energy prices as more production comes online, whether that 368 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 1: comes from Iran sanctions coming off or OPEC plus increasing 369 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 1: output quotas, which they're doing in North America going from 370 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: eleven million barrels a day to thirteen million barrels a day. 371 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: I think that'll that supply response helps push down on 372 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,480 Speaker 1: some of those inflationary pressures. So that's why we think 373 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: that some of it's going to be temporary. I think 374 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: the FED feels that way as well, and they're willing 375 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: to be asymmetric on their inflation target. Their target has 376 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: been that their target of two pc hasn't been met 377 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: in ten years. They're willing to let inflation run a 378 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: bit hotter unless an until we get to substantial economic 379 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 1: progress towards full employment. So I think that a combination 380 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:36,919 Speaker 1: of a FED that's going to be patient with a 381 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: little hotter inflation, which we've seen some reports of, and 382 00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,679 Speaker 1: just the economics of supply and demand seeing a supply 383 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: response come back into the marketplace. So right now we're 384 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:49,199 Speaker 1: in a world where aggregate demand is outstripping aggregate supply. 385 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 1: I think the supply response gets us to a place 386 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 1: where a lot of that gets neutralized. And it's not 387 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 1: gonna happen right away. We'll probably have inflation running hot 388 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,440 Speaker 1: throughout the balance of this year, but I don't think 389 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,879 Speaker 1: it gets hot or I think at plateaus, and I 390 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 1: think as we entered the first quarter next year, prices 391 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: started to come in, you know, or I know you 392 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: have a year end target for the SMP of about 393 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken, Um, that's not too far from 394 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: where we are now. You know, I'm looking at my screen. 395 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 1: It's probably about three and change away. UM, So I'm 396 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:24,399 Speaker 1: curious how you're thinking about that. You know, is that 397 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 1: the potential that that maybe you'll even raise that or 398 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,199 Speaker 1: is it a matter of you know a lot of 399 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:34,199 Speaker 1: people are sort of racing for the FED too, starts 400 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 1: thinking about talking about talking about thinking about maybe even 401 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: whispering and rumors about that dirty word tapering, and a 402 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 1: lot of people looking at even possibly as early as 403 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: the Jackson Hole meeting in August. Is that kind of 404 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 1: embedded in that forecast a little bit of uh, you know, 405 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 1: a hint that the punch bowl will be drained next year? 406 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,439 Speaker 1: Uh in that forecast? Or or how are you viewing 407 00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,159 Speaker 1: that at this point? We put the target out at 408 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 1: the beginning of the year. It's about a fifteen percent 409 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 1: upside from that point in time. So to your point, 410 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 1: we've already captured about ten or eleven percent of that. UM. 411 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: It's predicated on a multiple, uh, the current multiple for 412 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 1: the SP five hundred, but based on a hundred and 413 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: eighties six dollar earnings estimate for the SP five hunded, well, 414 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: that number has gone up already, right, So the one 415 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,719 Speaker 1: that we're factoring that against worked its way higher after 416 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: the first quarter earnings reporting season, so we'd have to 417 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 1: make an adjustment on that. On a standstille basis, the 418 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 1: estimates for the second quarter in the second half are 419 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 1: now higher than than they were when we started this. 420 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 1: So I think that when you think about what happens 421 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 1: when the FEDS starts inching towards tapering and getting that 422 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 1: message out there, I think they're going to be deliberately 423 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: cautious about bleeding it into the marketplace, so we don't 424 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: have that surprise taper that we had in two dozen 425 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: and thirteen that caused a much more abrupt sell off. 426 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 1: But it's certainly gonna slow things down, and I certainly 427 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 1: think that as they start talking about it, more and 428 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 1: more people will describe a lower multiple to the earnings 429 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: power of of equities and that will likely temper some 430 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: of the upside. And I think your timing is probably right. 431 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,199 Speaker 1: If you start thinking about Jackson Hole being at the 432 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 1: end of the summer, and that's been a time frame 433 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,359 Speaker 1: when central bankers have have signaled changes in policy and 434 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:14,439 Speaker 1: policy paradigms. That's when quantitative easing was first introduced. So 435 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: this maybe the time that they start talking about talking 436 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 1: about tapering and and likely don't take action on it 437 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: until the fourth quarter of this year. I think that's 438 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 1: going to give the market plenty of notice. And at 439 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 1: the very same time, I think second quarter earnings are 440 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: still conservative and second half earnings they're still conservative because 441 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 1: I just don't think we've come close to realizing the 442 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 1: explosion of economic activity we're going to see as people 443 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 1: get back to their normal lives. So with the FED, 444 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: with the FED minutes coming out this week, and the 445 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 1: FED hinting at the T word talk king about thinking 446 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:05,439 Speaker 1: about talking about tapering, if somebody were to ask you 447 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 1: about this, how would you recommend investors actually start to 448 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 1: prepare for that or position for that. Yeah, that's such 449 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:13,959 Speaker 1: a great question. So some of the things we think 450 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 1: about in terms of investing to to hedge against inflation 451 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: have a lot to do with what our Barbell approach 452 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: looks like. So the Fed's going to be tapering because 453 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,680 Speaker 1: the economy is recovering, so all of the economically sensitive 454 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: cyclic ales that we look at will do better, right, 455 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,399 Speaker 1: and a and a improving economy that is forcing the 456 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 1: FED to start reducing their monthly purchases of fixed income assets, 457 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: so that side of the barbell actually will outperform likely 458 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:46,640 Speaker 1: things like industrial materials, um, financials, energy, and that will 459 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 1: likely heads you a bit. But at the very same time, 460 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 1: if you if you, if you were all in on 461 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,199 Speaker 1: just cyclicality, you're gonna miss what it's going to be 462 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 1: in a pretty explosive growth in things like five G 463 00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,160 Speaker 1: and cloud computing, cloud security, and the themes that will 464 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 1: continue to be evergreen in terms of technology revenue and 465 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,640 Speaker 1: earnings growth. Art We're gonna get to the craziest thing soon, 466 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,159 Speaker 1: and I have high hopes for vill Donni here. She 467 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,640 Speaker 1: is actually uh what I call our chief Crazy Things correspondent. Um, 468 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: so no pressure of Bill Donna, but the hopes are 469 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:21,240 Speaker 1: high for for your crazy thing. Um what are Before 470 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,199 Speaker 1: we get to that, A lot of the guests we 471 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: have on our very macro focused and and very hesitant 472 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 1: to drop the names of some stocks they like, I've 473 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,199 Speaker 1: got to feel and you'll be able to hit us 474 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 1: with a few names on either side of that barbell 475 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,680 Speaker 1: that are looking attractive to right now. Are there any 476 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,639 Speaker 1: stocks that, uh, you can kind of talk about as 477 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 1: as good byes in your mind right now? Yeah, a 478 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,200 Speaker 1: couple of the names that we think about on the 479 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,639 Speaker 1: on the growth side and how do you express an 480 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,680 Speaker 1: opinion and things like five G or cloud security. We've 481 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,720 Speaker 1: got Palo Altode Networks on our on our focus list, 482 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 1: We've got Apple Computer on our focused list once a 483 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,959 Speaker 1: Cloud Security ones clearly a five G play. On our 484 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 1: National Dividend list, we have Verizon, which is clearly a 485 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 1: five G beneficiary. So those are some of the cyclical names. 486 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 1: We have Lamb Research also on that list. So I 487 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: think those are some of the names that when you 488 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,199 Speaker 1: think about the growth side, that actually have earnings. And 489 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: that's the difference about playing some of these themes because 490 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,199 Speaker 1: as interest rates start to go up, that long duration 491 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 1: technology play that really rapid revenue growth, but earnings that 492 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 1: are far out in the future are going to be 493 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,160 Speaker 1: discounted back at a much higher multiple, right, So you're 494 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,919 Speaker 1: gonna instead of being willing to pay thirty times for 495 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: that kind of revenue growth, You're you're likely going to 496 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 1: pay fifteen or twenty times. So we like those companies 497 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,239 Speaker 1: that are measured with a price to earnings ratio, and 498 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 1: we certainly like, you know, the thematics that were locked 499 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: into those some of the concepts around that. Over on 500 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:45,120 Speaker 1: the on the UH, the side that we we sort 501 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 1: of consider the economically sensitive cyclical side. JP Morgan is 502 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,400 Speaker 1: one of the names that certainly feels like as a 503 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: as a financial is going to do very well. I 504 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 1: think that we think that Visa falls into that category 505 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,639 Speaker 1: as well in terms of financials. And then when we 506 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: think about some of the industrial when we when we 507 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 1: look at um industrials and materials, we certainly think that 508 00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: Caterpillar is a great way to think about that, and 509 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,160 Speaker 1: and UH and and and sort of play that. Now, 510 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 1: those are individual names. A lot of our folks that 511 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,159 Speaker 1: are using the Barbell approach, we'll just use the e 512 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,159 Speaker 1: t F. They'll use the cloud Security et F and 513 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 1: pick their favorite one. They use the five G t 514 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 1: F and and that's another way to approach it. So 515 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 1: it's it's it doesn't have to be picking single stocks 516 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 1: as long as you're expressing the opinion that it's giving 517 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 1: you exposure to the right themes and growth and at 518 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 1: the same time the right themes that you want to 519 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 1: be expressing opinions. And on the on the cyclical side, 520 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 1: you know, five G to me, seems like an area 521 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: that's got a kind of a long runway for say 522 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 1: a buying whole type of investor um as opposed on 523 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 1: the other side of the barbel some of these cyclicals, 524 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,680 Speaker 1: I feel like there's an expiration date on their outperformance. 525 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 1: Is that is that tribe with what you're thinking, Yeah, 526 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,680 Speaker 1: that's probably true, right, So when you think about real 527 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,159 Speaker 1: long duration and thematics five she certainly plays into that. 528 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,719 Speaker 1: We're just scratching the surface of what that's gonna look like. 529 00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 1: So it's you know, it's probably out in front of 530 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 1: us for years, as is cloud security. I mean, we 531 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 1: just had another cyber attack and it's the second major 532 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:12,680 Speaker 1: one that we've had this year. So cloud security is 533 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 1: always going to continue to be you know, important to us. 534 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: But we don't know how high interest rates goes. So 535 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: the financials likely you know, in an approving economy, both 536 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,160 Speaker 1: have more demand for the goods and services, but likely 537 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 1: we'll have a lot more natatures margin. So I think 538 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 1: that you know, just rising industrates help the financials just 539 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: by turning the lights on. So I think there's a 540 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,679 Speaker 1: there's there's there's some runway on both sides of that. 541 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,719 Speaker 1: But that's very true. But I haven't forbid if we 542 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: were able to get an infrastructure bill passed, some of 543 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 1: the other industrial materials you know clearly are going to 544 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,680 Speaker 1: be beneficiaries of that. And again that's a six year plan, right, 545 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 1: So to me, I think, you know, there's longevity and 546 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,720 Speaker 1: a lot of this, but you know it's it's I 547 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 1: think one of the ways to protect yourself from any 548 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: of these things getting too frothy is is is just 549 00:27:58,000 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 1: that every two months you have to recalibrate that and 550 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:01,920 Speaker 1: if any of this has gotten ahead of itself, you're 551 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 1: rebouncing into what hasn't been working. That's a great point 552 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,440 Speaker 1: about the infrastructure plan that that would provide a much 553 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,720 Speaker 1: longer runway for those names. Great stuff art um. Let 554 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 1: us now go till Bildonna's favorite segment, The Craziest Things 555 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: We Saw in Markets this Week stand clearer of the 556 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 1: craziest things we saw in markets this week. I'm gonna 557 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 1: save yours for last, Phildanna, because I have a feeling 558 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,400 Speaker 1: you're you're bringing us something good. And also this way, 559 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 1: if we both had the same one, then mine will 560 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: be first and I win. So so I'm actually hoping 561 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 1: to throw you for a loop here. I picked something 562 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:42,320 Speaker 1: that I think is very unexpected and it is not 563 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 1: crypto related. Oh oh boy, Okay, a little teaser there. 564 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 1: I'm I'm excited. All right, let's start with you. I 565 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 1: know there's a lot of crazy things in the world 566 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 1: these days, but what is the craziest thing you saw 567 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 1: in markets this week? Unfortunately, mine is crypto related. Ethan 568 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 1: on furniture et h is. This symbol exploded and was 569 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 1: up some fifty over the course of two days because 570 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 1: it's symbol looks like it might have banned ethereum and 571 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 1: it's not ethan. Allen Furniture makes furniture that kind of 572 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 1: a it's a good, good business with a rising housing market, 573 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 1: but it's certainly not as good as the market described 574 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: it to credit for this week. And I thought that 575 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 1: was one of the craziest things I've seen. I love it. 576 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: I love a good mistake and ticker. Uh. Anytime Hewlett 577 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 1: Packard reports, I check on the price of American pain. 578 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 1: The oil fields company with the ticker HP. I love that. 579 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 1: It's amazing people just in such a hurry. I guess 580 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 1: they hit hit those symbols and and don't even think 581 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 1: about it. That's a good one. Art vill Dona Arts 582 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 1: said a high bar with that one. I like that 583 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 1: one a lot um. I think he beats me. We'll 584 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,640 Speaker 1: see if he beats you, But as of now, I'm 585 00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 1: gonna just concede that he's in the lead. But mine's 586 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,800 Speaker 1: pretty good. I'm curious what you think about it. Art. 587 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 1: It's this story we had out from Bloomberg by Crystal 588 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 1: Kim and Tom Conciliano, and it's about us back that 589 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 1: is being formed to raise money so basically buy another spack. Uh. 590 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 1: This is a drug maker called roy Vent Sciences. And 591 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 1: forgive me if I'm mispronounced that. Uh, they want to 592 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 1: go public with a spack toub merge with another spack 593 00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:20,040 Speaker 1: and then take over the spack acquired by Immu no Vent, 594 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 1: another drug maker that I'm probably mispronouncing. But the point 595 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 1: being a spack being formed to basically buy the assets 596 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 1: of another spack at a huge premium. All right, this 597 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 1: kind of makes my head spin and and it goes 598 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 1: to your point about how hot, those spacks square for 599 00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 1: a hot minute there, and then the world came crashing 600 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,040 Speaker 1: down on him. But how are you looking at the 601 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,160 Speaker 1: whole spack space and what do you think about a 602 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 1: spack being formed to buy another SPAC. Kind of reminds 603 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,880 Speaker 1: me of the line that they're on double secret probation 604 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:54,440 Speaker 1: from Animal House, right. So it feels as though the 605 00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 1: reasons SPACs started to become so popular last year and 606 00:30:58,080 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 1: there was a record number of them, they came out 607 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 1: because there's so many private companies that were staying private 608 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 1: for so long because venture capital money was so cheap. 609 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 1: So we had two SPACs that came out in public 610 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:11,200 Speaker 1: last year versus sixty the year before, and then we 611 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 1: had three in the first quarter of this year. So 612 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,960 Speaker 1: clearly there's not five great ideas for these guys to 613 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:20,560 Speaker 1: go by, and I think that that supply just swamped 614 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,960 Speaker 1: the demand for the investors. And it doesn't take much 615 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 1: of a hint that these things, some of these things 616 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:30,440 Speaker 1: aren't gonna work to sort of change the entire attitude 617 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 1: towards the group. So again, that was just one of 618 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: the sectors that lost some of its excess speculative froth 619 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,760 Speaker 1: in the in the month of May, and it's probably 620 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,080 Speaker 1: a healthy thing for all of us. I think that 621 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 1: that issue of supply of shares in the market is 622 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 1: so important. You know, this reminded me almost sort of 623 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,760 Speaker 1: the dot com I p O Mania on fast forward. 624 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: You know, just overload the market with with I p 625 00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 1: o s and new share supply and and it's just 626 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: you know, it's the market just chokes on it eventually, right, 627 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 1: absolutely correct. And then if you went back and looked 628 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 1: at the numbers, though, even with the numbers that we 629 00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 1: saw both in the first quarter of this year and 630 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 1: all of last year and SPACs, it doesn't even hold 631 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 1: a candle to the number of companies who were coming public. 632 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,280 Speaker 1: I bet um, all right, Phil Donna, if I could 633 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,120 Speaker 1: do a drum roll, I would, But but hit us 634 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 1: with your craziest thing. Well, we've covered crypto so extensively 635 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,520 Speaker 1: this week, and obviously so much was happening. I just 636 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 1: felt like I needed to take a break from it. 637 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 1: But one headline that caught my attention, Uh, it's it's 638 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg headline. It says the hottest property on the 639 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:40,000 Speaker 1: market comes with an active volcano. So I'm talking about 640 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,959 Speaker 1: the real estate market here. Uh, and it's an Icelandic family. 641 00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:47,960 Speaker 1: They own land where a volcano has emerged. Over the 642 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:51,080 Speaker 1: last couple of months, they're getting tons of offers from 643 00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 1: interested buyers. The Bloomberg story actually has this sentence in 644 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 1: it says thousands have flocked to see the eruption. Some 645 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 1: have evened fate and barbecued hot dogs on the lava. 646 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 1: And there's a picture of somebody barbecuing a hot dog 647 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,520 Speaker 1: on top of this volcano. That is fantastic. That is 648 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 1: you did you brought your a game? I I love it. Also, 649 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,320 Speaker 1: I've I've read that Iceland is a big hot spot 650 00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,520 Speaker 1: no pun, intended for crypto mining because of all that 651 00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: geo thermal thermal energy. So, uh, my guess is that 652 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 1: someone's going to buy that property and put a big 653 00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 1: bitcoin mining brig on top of it. That's that's just 654 00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 1: my guess. That's a pretty good guess. Who knows, Maybe 655 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,959 Speaker 1: they'll open a hot dog stand with with freshly grilled 656 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:42,520 Speaker 1: volcano hot dogs. But really good contributions from both you. 657 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,479 Speaker 1: I'm gonna word a two place tie for first place. 658 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,560 Speaker 1: Uh in the Craziest Things Are Yours was great? L 659 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 1: Donna's Yours Yours was good. I clearly need to up 660 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 1: my game when I'm around you too. One thing I 661 00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 1: do want to say is I've been very remiss about 662 00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 1: giving out the Bloomberg Podcast hotline. So if you have 663 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,040 Speaker 1: a crazy thing you want to share with us, give 664 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 1: us a call, leave us a voicemail, and maybe we'll 665 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,560 Speaker 1: play it on the show. That number is six four 666 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:11,840 Speaker 1: six three to four three four nine. Oh, and that 667 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:15,480 Speaker 1: should do it for this week. Bildna hi Art Hogan 668 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:17,879 Speaker 1: so happy to have both you on the show. Really 669 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,600 Speaker 1: enjoyed it and hopefully we can do it again someday. 670 00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:31,480 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. It's been fun. What goes up. 671 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,839 Speaker 1: We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find 672 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,760 Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website and apt where wherever 673 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,279 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took 674 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,520 Speaker 1: the time to rate and review the show on Apple 675 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,719 Speaker 1: Podcasts so more listeners can find us. And you can 676 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:48,640 Speaker 1: find us on Twitter. Follow me at reag Anonymous. Bildonna 677 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,440 Speaker 1: Hirich is at Bildonna hi Rich. You can also follow 678 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:55,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcasts at podcasts and thank you to Charlie Pellett 679 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Radio and the voice of the New York 680 00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,520 Speaker 1: City subway system. What Goes Up is produced by TO 681 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 1: for Foreheads ahead of Bloomberg Podcasts is Francesco Levie. Thanks 682 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:06,439 Speaker 1: for listening, See you next time.