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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Hello and welcome to

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Speaker 1: another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Joe Wisenthal.

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Speaker 1: Joe, can I tell you something. It's slightly embarrassing.

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Speaker 2: This could field many things that but go on.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So I had a self realization the other day.

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Speaker 1: I think I might have prepper tendencies.

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Speaker 3: I didn't know that.

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Speaker 2: But that doesn't totally surprise.

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Speaker 3: Like.

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Speaker 1: You're like, yes, you're a paranoid. This makes total So

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Speaker 1: the reason I had this realization we recorded an episode

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Speaker 1: recently on the big surge in cocoa prices, and a

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Speaker 1: few days after that episode came out, I was like, hmm,

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Speaker 1: I should buy some chocolate just in case. So I

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Speaker 1: went on Amazon and I bought like an industrial size

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Speaker 1: package of milk chocolate. And I was like, I'll just

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Speaker 1: keep it in the pantry. It'll be really convenient. It'll

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Speaker 1: be there for emergencies. I'm sure I won't eat it

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Speaker 1: at like ten PM when I'm craving something sweet. I'll

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Speaker 1: just keep it there for a long time. And so

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Speaker 1: I ordered it, and then you know what happened.

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Speaker 2: Tell me the rest.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So, The first thing that happened was I never

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Speaker 1: got the chocolate, which is kind of weird for Amazon,

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Speaker 1: like they just never fulfilled the order, and the supplier

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Speaker 1: was like, oops, we don't have enough chocolate, I guess.

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Speaker 1: But then secondly, as soon as I did it, prices

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Speaker 1: of cocoa started falling.

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Speaker 2: This was the market saving you from a bad trade basically,

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Speaker 2: And so you put in an order right at the top.

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Speaker 2: You know, sometimes you need a little luck in life,

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Speaker 2: and now you can buy the dip.

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Speaker 1: That's right. I was fully refunded at the top of

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Speaker 1: the market, and now I can buy it when it's

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Speaker 1: slightly more reasonable. But I have to say, I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at the chart of cocoa futures right now. So they

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Speaker 1: searched above eleven thousand, and then they came back down.

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Speaker 1: Let's see, we're about eight thousand, yeah, right now. So

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Speaker 1: it's been something of a roller coaster ride. And the

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Speaker 1: thing that I don't really understand is when I look

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Speaker 1: at coverage of the cocoa market at the moment, there

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Speaker 1: seems to be consensus that supply is going to be

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Speaker 1: an issue. So I know, Bloomberg published a survey of

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Speaker 1: traders where basically everyone was saying that they think prices

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Speaker 1: are going to go higher. Yeah, we could see over

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Speaker 1: fifteen thousand dollars later this year, but in the meantime

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Speaker 1: prices are sliding. So there seems to be a disconnect

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Speaker 1: there totally.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, I mean, even if the fundamentals are say, okay,

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Speaker 2: this market is in deficit or you know, all these

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Speaker 2: growing conditions, like at some point, as they say, you know,

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Speaker 2: trees don't grow to the moon or trees to the sky,

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Speaker 2: to the sky, whatever it is, so at some point

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Speaker 2: like you can have like solid bullish fundamentals in the price.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it really is crazy because last you know, December,

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Speaker 2: we were looking at four thousand, so we're still you know,

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Speaker 2: double so far this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I have to say we do, in fact

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Speaker 1: have the perfect guest. We're going to be speaking to

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Speaker 1: someone who timed the big cocoa trade a lot better

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Speaker 1: than I did personally in my pantry. But we're going

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Speaker 1: to be speaking with Pierre on durand he is of

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Speaker 1: course the founder of on Duran Capital Management. We're going

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Speaker 1: to talk cocoa and a bunch of other commodities. So Pierre,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for coming back. On all thoughts.

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Speaker 3: Hi, thanks very much my pleasure.

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Speaker 1: So maybe to begin with talk to us about how

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Speaker 1: you got interested in Coco, because my understanding is you

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Speaker 1: put a big trade on a long position earlier this year.

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Speaker 1: It paid off massively, But this isn't a sort of

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Speaker 1: normal type of trade for you. This is something that

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Speaker 1: was a little bit different.

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Speaker 3: Yes.

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Speaker 4: Well, generally my background is more in energy trading, but

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Speaker 4: I've traded quite a bit of metals as well a

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Speaker 4: little bit of agricultural products. But I have one and

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Speaker 4: thatst was very good and told me generally, per you

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Speaker 4: should look at Cocoas I'm like, okay, I don't know

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Speaker 4: anything about it, tell me, And it gave me a

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Speaker 4: really good presentation that was really interesting. So then we

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Speaker 4: really digged in really deep together to really understand the

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Speaker 4: fundancials market. And basically we have a massive supply shortage

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Speaker 4: this year. I mean we see production down seventeen percent

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Speaker 4: relative to last year. Most analysts out there have it

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Speaker 4: down eleven percent, but that's because they tend to be

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Speaker 4: very conservative. They have a lot of clients and they

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Speaker 4: don't want to worry the world, so they commu relatively

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Speaker 4: conservative estimates. But really tracking the exports from the main exporters,

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Speaker 4: many ivory coasts and Ghana that we put them together

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Speaker 4: about sixty percent of worlds production. We see basically ivory

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Speaker 4: cost exports down thirty percent here to date I mean

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Speaker 4: seedon to date and down forty one percent. So just

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Speaker 4: those two countries together since the start of the season,

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Speaker 4: which is the first of October, are down eight hundred

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Speaker 4: thousand tons.

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Speaker 3: And now we have the what.

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Speaker 4: You call the mild crop that is starting, but that

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Speaker 4: we present only twenty percent of the balance of the

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Speaker 4: season for West Africa and that's not going to be

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Speaker 4: enough to really change the deficit that we have this year.

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Speaker 3: So we have a deficit of eight.

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Speaker 4: Hundred thousand tons from those two countries, and then looking

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Speaker 4: at all the other countries we have, I think the

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Speaker 4: some are slightly positive, some are slightly negative, but basically

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Speaker 4: we get to a deficit of eight hundred thousand tons

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Speaker 4: this year. And so that's the first time we have such,

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Speaker 4: you know, such a decline in supply, and that's very

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Speaker 4: hard to.

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Speaker 3: Make it fit.

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Speaker 4: So at first you eat into current inventories until you

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Speaker 4: run out of inventories, and then the price can go anywhere.

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Speaker 4: So when we look at okay, what makes the price

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Speaker 4: of coco right? It's always about supply, supply versus demand.

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Speaker 4: But what has been capping the price between two thousand

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Speaker 4: and five hundred dollars a ton and three thousand dollars

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Speaker 4: a ton. It was not demand, because demand it's extremely inelastic.

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Speaker 4: I mean you can study that historically when you have

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Speaker 4: a visession or note, when prices go up a lot

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Speaker 4: or not, I mean demand journally goes up. And that's

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Speaker 4: because the amount of in dollar terms, that people consuming

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Speaker 4: cocoa is very small. I mean I did the back

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Speaker 4: of the enveloped calculation the other day. I meant at

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Speaker 4: basically ten thousand dollars a ton, even though it's four

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Speaker 4: times the more recent historical prices, out of a market

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Speaker 4: of five million tons of demand per year. You know,

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Speaker 4: you have like eight billion people on the planet. So

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Speaker 4: in ave wage, it means that people consume one point

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Speaker 4: seven gramps of coco per day, which at ten thousand

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Speaker 4: dollars a ton, which isn't one point seven cents per day. Okay,

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Speaker 4: at the average person, many people eat nothing and a

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Speaker 4: few eat ten times at a month's.

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Speaker 1: Tracy, I was going to say, I can personally attest

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Speaker 1: that my chocolate demand is very in a last.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, but you know, let's say if you eat

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Speaker 4: even one tablet, right, so one hundred and twenty five

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Speaker 4: grams a day, every single day for the wood yet,

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Speaker 4: which is quite a lot, right of a high high

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Speaker 4: content of real cocoa. Because you know your milk and

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Speaker 4: milk chocolate you have like less than ten percent coco

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Speaker 4: in it, So the price can go up ten times.

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Speaker 4: Your tablet is only a double in price. It's not

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Speaker 4: going to react very much to the cocoa price. But

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Speaker 4: if you take a high content, high chocolate content like

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Speaker 4: a tablet one hundred and twenty five grams, that mean

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Speaker 4: that you probably have maximum of fifty grams of cocoa

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Speaker 4: bin s equipment in it.

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Speaker 3: I means probably a lot less.

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Speaker 4: Then you get to an expense of fourteen dollars per

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Speaker 4: months at current prices, which is an increase of ten

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Speaker 4: dollars per months relative to when we had a more

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Speaker 4: normal price. So it means that demands like four more

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Speaker 4: reasonable chocolate lovers, that increase in price in cocoa just

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Speaker 4: corresponds to two to five dollars per months. So people

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Speaker 4: are not going to eat less chocolate because of So

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Speaker 4: it means that prices really are are capped by the

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Speaker 4: amount of supply you get. So if you can't get

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Speaker 4: enough supply, the price can go up a lot until

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Speaker 4: we get more supply. And when do we get more supply,

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Speaker 4: Well that in part due to the weather. If you

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Speaker 4: have much better weather then you get you might get

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Speaker 4: a more and more supply of coco bin the next year.

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Speaker 4: But we have some issues that are also structural. So

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Speaker 4: when we look at the wisons for this large decline

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Speaker 4: in production this year, I mean a lot of the

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Speaker 4: wisons are actually structural. I mean we can look at

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Speaker 4: four weasons why coco bit production has gone down a

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Speaker 4: lot this year. I mean, first I should give like

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Speaker 4: a little bit of background of why cocoa is so

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Speaker 4: concentrated in West Africa. I mean, it's mainly because it

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Speaker 4: requires very specific temperature, rainfall, and humidity conditions, and that's

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Speaker 4: why most of the production is concentrated around a certain latitude.

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Speaker 4: So seventy percent in West Africa, and then you have

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Speaker 4: a twenty one percent in Many Latin America and five

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Speaker 4: percent in Asia and Oceania. So the main reasons why

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Speaker 4: we lost a lot of productions. This year is number one. Weather,

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Speaker 4: so some of it due to El Nino. We had

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Speaker 4: a bili period of time when it was too hot

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Speaker 4: and period of time when we had way too much rain.

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Speaker 4: Second is climate change, So climate change is every year

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Speaker 4: shifting the weather patterns generally unfavorably for coco productions.

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Speaker 3: Then you have two disease.

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Speaker 4: You have one called the black pot disease that that

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Speaker 4: come from a fungus and it took hers mainy during

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Speaker 4: the rainy season. It's spread by brent splash so big

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Speaker 4: it can't go when it's dry. And then you have

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Speaker 4: a virus called the Swolen shoot disease. It's not a

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Speaker 4: new disease. It was discovered in nineteen thirty six. It's

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Speaker 4: transmitted by millibugs, but it dequisits cocoa yields a lot

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Speaker 4: so bili. A tree that has that Throlen shoot disease

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Speaker 4: loses twenty five percent yield within the first year and

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Speaker 4: fifty percent within two years, and the tree dies within

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Speaker 4: three to four years. And we've had like actually a

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Speaker 4: spread of that disease like over the last year. And

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Speaker 4: then also we had less usage of fertilizers mainly in

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Speaker 4: Ivory Coast due to high fertilizer prices and also shortages

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Speaker 4: due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So you know,

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Speaker 4: everything is linked. So some of it might be solved

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Speaker 4: if we get better weather. I mean for next year,

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Speaker 4: we should have laminar and not Alninius, so that should

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Speaker 4: help at the margin, but we still have issued with

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Speaker 4: climate change. We still have issues with black pot disease

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Speaker 4: and swollen three disease, and there's no indication that we

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Speaker 4: get more usage of fertilizers in Ivory Coast because actually

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Speaker 4: the farmers are still getting relatively low prices and they're

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Speaker 4: still struggling to make ensmit. So a lot of those

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Speaker 4: supply issues are actually structural.

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Speaker 2: This was already a really fascinating answer in particular just

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Speaker 2: all that point about how if a commodity just does

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Speaker 2: not take up more much wallet share, then the then

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Speaker 2: you know, yes it can go up, but you don't

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Speaker 2: get that same sort of demand destruction as if it

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Speaker 2: were really creating a big financial burden on the end consumers.

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Speaker 2: Something I'm curious about with Coco is, you know, when

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Speaker 2: I think of like oil, we are just like we're

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Speaker 2: swimming in data about oil. There are multiple big, well

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Speaker 2: funded international statistical agencies of the track. You can get

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Speaker 2: inventory data easily. There's OPEC, there's et cetera. With Coco,

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Speaker 2: and I'm curious. You know you said your analysts brought

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Speaker 2: it to your attention in January. In my mind, I

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Speaker 2: imagine that there is less robust information and it's more scattered,

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Speaker 2: et cetera. Maybe I'm wrong, but does that present more

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Speaker 2: opportunities to identify moments where there's something going on in

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Speaker 2: the market and traders and analysts aren't seeing it.

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Speaker 4: You know, we managed to get in us a relevant

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Speaker 4: data act. You need to understand what's happening. You have

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Speaker 4: some concertants that are specialized, and if we mount, the

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Speaker 4: have a team doing surveys of the main producing regions

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Speaker 4: to understand and then they work on their forecast on

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Speaker 4: how much the same production will go. So actually you

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Speaker 4: have some specialists, so actually we get enough data to

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Speaker 4: understand how.

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Speaker 2: So what did your analysts? What did your analysts see

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Speaker 2: or how is your analyst able to see something in

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Speaker 2: the supply and demand situation that he felt and you

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Speaker 2: felt was not being identified by the analyst to cover

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Speaker 2: this closely?

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Speaker 4: I think it's mainly an understanding of how much prices

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Speaker 4: have to move to balance the market. You know, people

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Speaker 4: sometimes people can trade that market for like twenty years.

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Speaker 4: They've been used to a range of prices and they believe, okay,

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Speaker 4: the top of the range is a high price for apple,

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Speaker 4: but they don't really ask themselves what makes that price right?

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Speaker 4: And sometimes taking a step back can help. I mean,

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Speaker 4: what makes the price is mainly the fact that in

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Speaker 4: the past you would have a supply repounce if prices

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Speaker 4: were going up. But if now you get you don't

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Speaker 4: get the supply repons or the supply response takes four

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Speaker 4: or five years, then you need to have a demand response.

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Speaker 4: And a lot of people look at prices in nominal terms.

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Speaker 4: So you hear people saying, oh, we're at all time

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Speaker 4: high prices in coco, but that's because they look at

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Speaker 4: prices in nominal terms. Previous high in nineteen seventy seven

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Speaker 4: was five five hundred something dollars a ton of nineteen

255
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Speaker 4: seventy seven dollars, which is equivalent to twenty eight thousand

256
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Speaker 4: dollars a turn of two days dollars. So we're still

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Speaker 4: very far from previous highs, and so you have to

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Speaker 4: look at a bit more history and understand in the past,

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Speaker 4: halgh prices reacted to a shortage, how long it took

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Speaker 4: to recover to product shortage to actually solve itself, and

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Speaker 4: what's different today. So there's there's a ratio that we

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Speaker 4: look at that most people look at. It's actually the

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Speaker 4: inventory to grinding the ratio, So it's a measure of

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Speaker 4: inventory to demand. What we call grinding is basically industrial

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Speaker 4: companies that take the coco bins and they want to

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Speaker 4: make chocolate with it. So it's a process and some

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Speaker 4: of them may the hand product chocolate tabacci. Some of

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Speaker 4: them sell back the product to other chocolate makers, and

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Speaker 4: so basically a typical grinder would take cocoa bins and

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Speaker 4: make cocoa butter and powder with it, and the prices

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Speaker 4: of both those elements also went up even more than

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Speaker 4: cocoa bins, which means that actually we probably had some

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Speaker 4: distalking everywhere on the.

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Speaker 3: In the chain.

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Speaker 4: So it looks like demand when we look at the

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Speaker 4: chocolate makers, the hand demand for chocolate didn't go down

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Speaker 4: at all. It looked to be flat on the year.

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Speaker 4: Grindings look to be down see three and a half

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Speaker 4: percent this year. Despite the fact that the hand demand

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Speaker 4: is the same in volume, which means that they've been

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Speaker 4: distalking cocoa bins actually, and so we had like distalking

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Speaker 4: everywhere at the hand chocolate level, at the cocoa bins,

283
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Speaker 4: at the cocoa butter and cocoa powder level. So we

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Speaker 4: had this talking everywhere on the chain. And now we

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Speaker 4: have the largest deficit ever on top of two previous

286
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Speaker 4: years of deficit, and you look like next year we

287
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Speaker 4: will have a deficit. So we're in a situation where

288
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Speaker 4: we might actually run out of invantries completely. I mean,

289
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Speaker 4: this year, we think we will end up with an

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Speaker 4: inventory to grinding ratio, so inventry at the end of

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Speaker 4: the season of twenty one percent. For the last ten years,

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Speaker 4: we've been between thirty five and forty percent roughly. At

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Speaker 4: the previous peak in nineteen seventy seven, we were at

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Speaker 4: nineteen percent and that's what drove us to twenty eight

295
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Speaker 4: thousand dollars a turn of two day's dollars. If we

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Speaker 4: have another deficit next year, then we might go down

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Speaker 4: to thirteen percent. So I don't think it's actually possible.

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Speaker 4: That's when you will have real shortage of cocobine, you

299
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Speaker 4: can't get it, and that's when the price can really explode.

300
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Speaker 4: And so understanding that you have to slow down demand

301
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Speaker 4: and we know that the demand can't will be slowed,

302
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Speaker 4: so that's when you can.

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Speaker 3: Have an explosion.

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Speaker 4: And remember that these commodity futures you need to have,

305
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,320
Speaker 4: they're actually physically settled, right, so if somebody wants to

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Speaker 4: take delivery, they have to converge with the price of

307
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Speaker 4: the physical. If you have no physical somebody wants to

308
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Speaker 4: take delivery, the price can go anywhere. So it's a

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Speaker 4: dangerous commodity too short, right, if you have no physical

310
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Speaker 4: against it. And actually, you know, sometimes we with knew

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Speaker 4: that the fonts have been pushing coco prices is actually

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Speaker 4: completely untrue because the farms have been selling since February.

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Speaker 4: They actually went from a length of one hundred and

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Speaker 4: seventy five thousand lots, so that's one point seventy five

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Speaker 4: million tons of coco lands. I think it was around

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Speaker 4: like September last year in average or orbitarlier to twenty

317
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Speaker 4: eight thousand lost to eighty thousand tons at the moment,

318
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Speaker 4: so they sold more than eighty percent of their lands actually,

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Speaker 4: and the people who've been buying a future from the

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Speaker 4: fonts its producers because they're producing a lot less than

321
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Speaker 4: they expected. So what has been happening in the cocoa

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Speaker 4: market is that you had a reduction of what we

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Speaker 4: call the open interest, where both the longs we use

324
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,760
Speaker 4: their lands and the shorts we use their shots. And

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Speaker 4: then we get into a market where you have less

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Speaker 4: liquidity because you have less exposure.

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Speaker 3: You have less longs and less less shorts, and then

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Speaker 3: the volatidity increases.

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Speaker 4: So in the past, when when people were comfortable being

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Speaker 4: let's say, having a one hundred loss position, now because

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Speaker 4: it moves more than ten times more than in the past,

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Speaker 4: we're going to have like a ten lots position, right,

333
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Speaker 4: So the market became more due to the fact that

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00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:32,360
Speaker 4: we had a massive move and we have a massive deficit,

335
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Speaker 4: so everybody reducing their positions, and because of the increased volatility,

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Speaker 4: we have less less activity and that's what makes the

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Speaker 4: point more volatile.

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Speaker 1: That way, this is something I find fascinating. So the

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00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 1: way the financial markets sort of interact with the underlying

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Speaker 1: real commodity and how that ends up influencing price. Given

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Speaker 1: the dynamics that you just laid out, where because of

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Speaker 1: you know, structural changes in the market, both in coco

343
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Speaker 1: and then also in the way it's traded, This new

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00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 1: volatility making people maybe less inclined to short and leading

345
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Speaker 1: to decrease trading volumes. Are you still long Coco in

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00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 1: this environment or have you, like a lot of other people,

347
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:34,440
Speaker 1: backed off at this point.

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Speaker 4: Well, you have to be careful about the sizing of

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Speaker 4: your position because it's something that is clearly less liquid

350
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,359
Speaker 4: than the commodities I'm used to, which are you know,

351
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,600
Speaker 4: for apple oil or natural gas. So it's a lot

352
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 4: less liquid and in a market like that, it's a

353
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Speaker 4: lot more volatile.

354
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Speaker 3: Right. It's not always volatile.

355
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Speaker 4: But when you have a large deficit and low inventory,

356
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,679
Speaker 4: it moves a lot. So you have to calibrate your

357
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,880
Speaker 4: position to be able to take a fifty percent move

358
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 4: against you on the way right.

359
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:01,639
Speaker 3: So that's what you have to do.

360
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 4: It doesn't mean that you have to be out completely,

361
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:07,119
Speaker 4: because I still think that there's more upside than downside.

362
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,399
Speaker 4: I think we still have the potential to go above

363
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 4: twenty thousand dollars a turn later this year or next year,

364
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 4: versus on the downside. Maybe we go from if you

365
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 4: look at a December contract. It's at toughly seven thousand

366
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 4: dollars a ton today, maybe we go back down to

367
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 4: five thousand, right, so you have like a two thousand

368
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 4: dollars turn downside versus thirteen to fifteen thousand dollars or

369
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,360
Speaker 4: maybe more upside. So it's still worth having some lands,

370
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,080
Speaker 4: you know, in terms of probability. But now I mean

371
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,360
Speaker 4: it could go down. The probablity that it goes back

372
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 4: down is not zero. But for that you need a

373
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 4: lot of things need to go out. You need like

374
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 4: a bumper crop in West Africa next year, and it

375
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 4: means you need to have the perfect weather in West

376
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,359
Speaker 4: Africa from now to the end of the year in

377
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 4: order to have a really good cop for next year.

378
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 4: And it might happen, but it might not happen, right,

379
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 4: You need to get extremely lucky for that to happen.

380
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 4: So I think the balance of probabilities are still that

381
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 4: we will have a deficit next year on top of

382
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,480
Speaker 4: the very large deficit this year. We believe we have

383
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 4: eight hundred thousand tons deficit out of five million ton

384
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,719
Speaker 4: market size, right, so it's a very large deficit. If

385
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 4: we have the production going back up roughly ten percent

386
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 4: from this year to next year, we still have a

387
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 4: deficit of three hundred thousand turns or so next year.

388
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 4: That brings us to thirteen percent stock to grinding ratio,

389
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 4: which which would be much lower than what we had

390
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 4: in nineteen seventy seven. So we still have I think

391
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 4: a high probability of having much much higher coco prices.

392
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,399
Speaker 4: You know, even if they go there, we might have

393
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 4: big drops like we've seen the last months or so

394
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 4: the last two weeks, but we might make new hide

395
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 4: and then have big drops again and then make new

396
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 4: heihs or if over the next four months we realize

397
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 4: that we're going to have from all the surveys we

398
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,399
Speaker 4: get every months in Ivory Coast and Ghana that the

399
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 4: crop next will be amazing, then the policies we'd probably

400
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 4: come off from here towards you know, I don't know,

401
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,639
Speaker 4: five or six thousand dollars a turn, but they're not

402
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 4: going to go back down right away to two thousand,

403
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:14,920
Speaker 4: five hundred dollars a ton because we need We have

404
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 4: very low inventories, so we need to rebuild stocks everywhere

405
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 4: in the supply chain.

406
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 2: These inventories. So you've been talking about the stock inventory,

407
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 2: the grinding ratio or the stocks to grinding ratio within

408
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,360
Speaker 2: the sort of cocoa or chocolate supply chain. Who are

409
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 2: the holders of the stocks and how do you get there?

410
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:36,200
Speaker 2: Like how is that data collected?

411
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 4: So basically you have the exchange. So first you have

412
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 4: exchange stocks, so we have weekly data in European exchanges

413
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 4: and the US exchanges. So in the US NAPPLE everything's

414
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 4: held on exchange pretty much, so everything in exchange. In

415
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 4: Europe only twenty percent of the the inventories on exchange.

416
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 4: Twenty percent of the European stocks are on exchange. The

417
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 4: others are really with with chocolate makers or that they

418
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 4: need to hold stocks directly to make the chocolate. And

419
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,640
Speaker 4: then you have then you have some also obviously at

420
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 4: the producing regions. So and that's something that we can

421
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 4: see the inventories at the port in Ivory Coast and Ghana,

422
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 4: so the main exporters. You can actually follow the amount

423
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 4: in inventory there and then the West. What we don't

424
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 4: know is inferred statistically, right, so there's a bit of

425
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 4: noise in what that that total amount of inventory would be.

426
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 4: But you have some some firm that has specialized in

427
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 4: it that will come up with an estimate of the number,

428
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 4: So they'll they'll do some surveys, they'll they'll, they'll they'll

429
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 4: do some cost validation to make sure that the numbers

430
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 4: at are at the end.

431
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 1: Out of curiosity and just widening this out to a

432
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 1: few other commodities, have you observed any similar dynamics in

433
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 1: something like coffee, which has been getting a lot of

434
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 1: attention recently, or orange juice. I ran into some guy

435
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: called Mortimer who was telling me that Brazil is supposed

436
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: to have a bad harvest this year.

437
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 3: That's possible.

438
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 4: I haven't followed orange juice. I mean, we looked at

439
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 4: coffee quickly. It looked less. It looked interesting as well,

440
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 4: because you get big losses in production from Vietnam. But

441
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 4: we didn't look We didn't see from far something that

442
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 4: was so exciting, so we didn't try it.

443
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 3: Orange juice, we haven't.

444
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 4: I don't know, but I would say that generally the

445
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 4: shift in weather patterns due to climate change are going

446
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 4: to bring some structural stories into soft commodities, and so we'll.

447
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:37,959
Speaker 3: Have to look.

448
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 4: At more and more of the soft commodities because it's

449
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 4: not only going to be from one year to another.

450
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 4: You're going to have like that everything could change due

451
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 4: to random change in weather.

452
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 3: You have this underlying climate change that.

453
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 4: It's also a trend that really impact production of the time,

454
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 4: and so we have to identify the communities that will

455
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 4: be impacted by that.

456
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: Tell to us a little bit more about Obviously we've

457
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 2: had you on in the past primarily talk about oil

458
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 2: and as you mentioned in the beginning, entering and you're

459
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 2: not you don't trade egg as much. There's sort of

460
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 2: a different space for you other than the size of

461
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 2: the market. And I guess you know, as you mentioned,

462
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:17,880
Speaker 2: it's all physical delivery futures. What are the other dynamics

463
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 2: that are different when you go from trading a commodity

464
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 2: like oil, which is gigantic and liquid, to a commodity

465
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 2: like cocoa.

466
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 4: Well, you have to follow the I mean cocoa I

467
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 4: think is less complicated than the grains because in the grains,

468
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 4: your weather can impact productions so quickly. But sus for cocoa,

469
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 4: it does impact production, but it takes you five years

470
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 4: to you know, when you plant a cocoa tree for

471
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 4: I mean three to five years for that coco tree

472
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 4: to give you cocoa beans. This is for grains, you

473
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 4: get it right away, so you get like a slower

474
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 4: production responsor. It should be when you have a big

475
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 4: supply issue and that you have issues due to climate change,

476
00:24:58,040 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 4: you should have like a.

477
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 3: Large move than four coins.

478
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 4: So it should make it easier in a way to

479
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 4: have a positions that you can hold for longer that

480
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 4: are a bit more structural.

481
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 3: Than four coins. I would say that's my understanding at

482
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 3: least for now. And there's enough data too.

483
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 4: I mean enough data meaning like if we we get

484
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:23,040
Speaker 4: like a bit more more data on how the new

485
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 4: crops are doing many many in iboricos and cana to

486
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 4: have a good understanding of what the crop will be,

487
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,399
Speaker 4: the production will be the following year. So I feel

488
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,479
Speaker 4: like we have enough data to understand in which direction

489
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 4: we're going. Versus the grains, I feel like the grains

490
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 4: can they move up and down a lot?

491
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 3: Then you can't. It's more complicated.

492
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 4: You have to look at a lot of like tiny

493
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 4: details versus coco where you have many one mega major

494
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 4: producer and another very large one.

495
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: Speaking of climate change, can we talk a little bit

496
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: about copper, because this is all so a commodity where

497
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 1: I feel like there was a lot of discussion about

498
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 1: it being in structural short supply as the world moves

499
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: towards electrification. But then over the past couple of years

500
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: prices went down, I guess because of concerns over the

501
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 1: outlook for economic growth, and just relatively recently so starting

502
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 1: sort of February of this year, prices are going up again.

503
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 1: What's your thesis when it comes to copper.

504
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 4: I think coppers should go up a lot Bleakly. We

505
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:34,679
Speaker 4: are going from biky Over the last let's say fifteen

506
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 4: twenty years, we were in a market where demand was

507
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 4: going about half a million turn a year and supply

508
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 4: was going half a million ton a year in average. Right,

509
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 4: if you look at long term averages, it was over

510
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,160
Speaker 4: time a balance market. We had times where it was tight,

511
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 4: times where it was in a bit of a surplus,

512
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 4: many during the pandemic or during financial crisis, but overall

513
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 4: it was a balance market. Now, due to the energy transition,

514
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 4: we're obviously as we have to electrify the world, we

515
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 4: have new demand from electrification of transport, so it means

516
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 4: that not only to make the electric vehicles, but also

517
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 4: to supply more electricity.

518
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 3: Overall in the world.

519
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 4: For that energy transition, so you have to work on

520
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 4: the grid to have more renewable and renewables take a

521
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 4: lot more copper than like nuclear plants or like fossil

522
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:34,479
Speaker 4: fuel generated electricity, so like solar panels and windmills take

523
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 4: a lot more copper. And also all the data centers

524
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 4: take a lot of copper. So we have that third

525
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 4: in power demand that we need a lot of copper.

526
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 4: And we're getting into a market where despite the fact

527
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 4: that the Chinese property market will be much weaker than

528
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 4: the last fifteen years in terms of growth, and we're

529
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 4: seeing decline in the property in the copper demand in

530
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 4: China for the fourthingble future, despite that, we see a

531
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 4: market in which we're have overall one million tons of

532
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 4: demand perier roughly of demand increased per year, and the

533
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 4: supply goes basically by the end of next year will

534
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,360
Speaker 4: be zero to negative. So we think that in terms

535
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 4: of mining supply, we're picking in about a year like

536
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 4: twelve to eighteen.

537
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 3: Months, and then we flatten and then we go down.

538
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 4: So best case scenario, you get like a million tons

539
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 4: increasing demand against no increasing supply, so you get larger

540
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 4: and larger deficit deficit every year and the price hasn't

541
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 4: reacted yet, and that's mainly because I think there's not

542
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 4: enough fonts at the or companies that actually trade the

543
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 4: future's market and all positions for very long. I mean,

544
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 4: if you look at most of the hedgephones out there,

545
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 4: it's a bunch of leg pots that have.

546
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 3: Very many, many.

547
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 4: Teams in those big multi strategy fonts that have very

548
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 4: tight drawdowns, so they tend to try to trade for

549
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 4: the next few days or next week or so. They

550
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 4: count really positions for very long, and there's not a

551
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 4: lot of companies that can hold positions, so because the

552
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 4: market is not really doing its job to actually give

553
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 4: a price signal to solve that deficit, that upcoming deficit,

554
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 4: that's a multi year deficit. Basically, it takes, you know,

555
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 4: to grow supply in copper. I mean, if you bring

556
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 4: a new mind, is like more than ten years to

557
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 4: bring its like ten to fifteen years to bring a

558
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 4: new mind.

559
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 3: And everything has been relatively well explored.

560
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 4: So now the supply growth from copper is coming from

561
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 4: more and more dangerous countries as well, like less and

562
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 4: less stable countries, So you don't get that quick supply

563
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 4: response in copper, but the demand is now and the

564
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 4: demand is growing. I mean, we're going to build that

565
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 4: electric grid, and we're going to build all these EVAs

566
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 4: and also that data center. They're going to be built

567
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,239
Speaker 4: at whatever the cost of copper. And remember that the

568
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 4: price of copper is a very small percentage of the

569
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 4: price of the end product, right, So if copper goes

570
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 4: up ten times, I mean your m product will go

571
00:29:57,720 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 4: up a little bit. It's not good to double in price.

572
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 4: So if you need to have a demand response, mainly

573
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 4: when the world is kind of obligated to go through

574
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 4: that through that energy position, then we should get to

575
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 4: really really large price move.

576
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 3: So I think there's a long long way to go

577
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 3: for copper.

578
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: I'm interested in this because you know, we have seen

579
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 2: this bit of a copper rally, though we're not even

580
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 2: I don't even think we're quite at the twenty twenty

581
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 2: one highs. But it's interesting. I'd love to hear you

582
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 2: explain further about the connection between Okay, any any fool

583
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 2: can look at supply and demand and say, there's this

584
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 2: much demand for copper out there, there's this much supply

585
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 2: coming online, there's going to be a deficit. That seems bullish,

586
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 2: how do you take that analysis and or take that

587
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 2: starting premise and then think about what does a fair

588
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 2: price look like? And so as opposed to just saying yeah,

589
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: this is there's more demand that supply. How do you

590
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 2: get to like a number that in your view or

591
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: in your analyst view, looks like a number that might

592
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 2: bring supply and demand into balance.

593
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 4: I mean it's going to be you know, I don't

594
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 4: think it's just a price. It's like the whole path

595
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 4: is important, I think. So we look at it year

596
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 4: by yea, so we think, okay, at current prices, what

597
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 4: would be the supply and demand balance to current prices

598
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 4: have an impact on demand goes or not? Or what

599
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 4: is the state of the global economy. What kind of

600
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 4: you know, demand goes do we expect for copper and

601
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 4: what is the supply goes?

602
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 3: I mean, supply goes.

603
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 4: Is not going to be too dependent on copper prices

604
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 4: for the first few years. I mean a little bit

605
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 4: to scrap. You get a bit more crap scrap metals

606
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 4: when prices go up, so you can model for that.

607
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 4: When prices go up, you get more crap supply that

608
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 4: that comes as a source of supply for copper.

609
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 3: And then the demand.

610
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 4: We look at, okay, what can be priced and city

611
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 4: what can be pushed too later or not? It's not

612
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 4: that much to be honest, And then we get to

613
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 4: a path for the demand. And then we look at, okay,

614
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 4: what is what do we think the supplant demand balance.

615
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 3: Look looks like every year.

616
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 4: So for Apple this year, at current pri set, we

617
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 4: think we're going to get about like four hundred to

618
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 4: five hundred thousand tons deficit, and we had less than

619
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 4: that in terms of visible stocks at the beginning of

620
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 4: the year, so it means that we could actually run

621
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 4: out of visible inventories by the end.

622
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 3: Of the year.

623
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 4: Now there is some extra inventories, mainly the strategic reserve,

624
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 4: what we call the SRB in China, but if they

625
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 4: know that we're going to we're at the beginning of

626
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 4: a multi year deficit, they're not going to sell their

627
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 4: strategy reserve in the first year. So then we look

628
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 4: at the following year. We think for next year, we

629
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 4: also have half a million ton deficit, and actually we

630
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 4: can't cover that with a level of inventory, so we

631
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 4: need and then assuming we had enough inventory, we go

632
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 4: to in twenty twenty six to invent like deficit that

633
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 4: are more than a million tons and eventually more than

634
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 4: three million tons in twenty thirty, and that obviously those

635
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 4: deficits accumulate and we don't have enough inventries to actually

636
00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 4: you know, go through.

637
00:32:59,000 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 3: The first year.

638
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 4: So it means that we're going to have really large

639
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 4: pricing is sooner than later to slow demand, and I

640
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 4: don't know how much it would have to go by. Yeah,

641
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 4: So basically on copper, what I mean that we're going

642
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 4: to have to have nonel in our move sooner than

643
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,239
Speaker 4: later because of the large deficit we think we're going

644
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 4: to have this year and if not this year, next year,

645
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 4: and we don't have enough inventories to meet that deficit.

646
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 4: So we need to slow down demand relatively fast. And

647
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 4: we think that demand is also very in elastic due

648
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 4: to the fact that the price of copper as a

649
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 4: percentage of the end product is very low, and we

650
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 4: need to go through the energy transition regardless of the

651
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 4: price almost so I think that's why prices can move

652
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 4: a lot for copper. So at the end, like we

653
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 4: don't know exactly how high they can go to we

654
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 4: go to I think they could go up four times

655
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 4: over five year five year horizon. But does it mean

656
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 4: that we go up from ten thousand to fifteen thousand

657
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,040
Speaker 4: this year and then twenty two thousand next year. I

658
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 4: don't know, but I think that the kind of twice

659
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 4: moves that I'm expecting, you know, like this that multiple

660
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,800
Speaker 4: in twice, not to twenty percent increase. The twenty percent

661
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 4: increase doesn't change anything to your suppreme demand balance on

662
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 4: a two to three highs.

663
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: So Joe asked you how you come up with the

664
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,959
Speaker 1: price thesis for something like copper and how you see

665
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 1: it play out. And you know, we're mostly focusing on

666
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 1: time scales there, but there was one commodity that I

667
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 1: wanted to ask you a similar question on which is oil.

668
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 1: And oil it feels to me is facing a very

669
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:55,439
Speaker 1: uncertain year in many respects. We have the upcoming US

670
00:34:55,560 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 1: presidential election, and it feels like things could go in

671
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:05,399
Speaker 1: very different paths depending on whether Trump or Biden get

672
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: the presidency. Not necessarily in terms of US oil production,

673
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 1: which is already quite high and I think has surprised

674
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 1: a number of people, including possibly yourself, but maybe in

675
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 1: terms of things like the response from OPEC or what

676
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 1: happens with Russia Ukraine can you walk us through how

677
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:26,720
Speaker 1: you in such an uncertain moment, how you even begin

678
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 1: to come up with a short term thesis for the

679
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: price of oil over the next year or so.

680
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, So when you look at all the potential supply

681
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,839
Speaker 4: disruption that we could have had at the end of thing,

682
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 4: we didn't get any supply disruption. So if you look

683
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 4: at in twenty twenty to twenty twenty three, we're all

684
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 4: expecting to see at least some decline in the Russian

685
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 4: production due to sanctions, so due to issue within Russia,

686
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 4: and at the end, there was no supply responsor at all.

687
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 3: I mean, there was no subplate disuption.

688
00:35:57,239 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 4: Last year in twenty twenty three, we've got to sell

689
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 4: in Iranian exports due to the fact that the sanctions

690
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 4: on Iran were not really.

691
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 3: Enforced, I would say.

692
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 4: So we had relative to expectations, we ended up having

693
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 4: like a lot more Russian production and Iranian production. And

694
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 4: also last year US supply grew up more than expected

695
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 4: for the beginning of the month of the year. So

696
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 4: for the last four months, for five months four months,

697
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 4: I would say US production has been disappointing. So it's

698
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 4: been a bit lower than people expected. And that the

699
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 4: first time in a long time. Obviously, four months is

700
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 4: not enough to grow a trend, but it's something to

701
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 4: watch out for. I mean, is US shel production about

702
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 4: to peak or not.

703
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 3: We don't know. We'll only know it.

704
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 4: After the fact, But so far it looks like US

705
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 4: production is actually not growing too much, I mean, or

706
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 4: at least over the last four months. With the tensions

707
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 4: in the Middle East. In terms of what scenario we

708
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 4: could have to really lose supply, I would say it's

709
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 4: only if we get an attack on Iranian oil facilities,

710
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 4: but I don't think the US would want that, so

711
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 4: I don't think Israel would do it, because if they

712
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 4: were to do it, then the Uranians would probably try

713
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 4: to blow at the Saudi facilities or close the straight

714
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 4: of Hormoved and then we.

715
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 3: Get into really huge toppled disruption.

716
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 4: But it's a low probability event, right, It's very unlikely,

717
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 4: but it's not impossible. But if the conflict stays between

718
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 4: Israel and Gaza, I mean, there's no oil there, it

719
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 4: has no impact at all all supply. So where we

720
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 4: could have supply disruptions is coming from the Ukrainian attacks

721
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,360
Speaker 4: on Russian oil infrastructure, and when you look at what

722
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 4: they've been doing for the last six months, they have

723
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:44,800
Speaker 4: many attacks Russian behind with and that's really to try

724
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 4: to hurt the war reforts in Russia in the SPS,

725
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 4: not actually with it so much financially, it's more for

726
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 4: them to not have the white amount of fuel to

727
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 4: make enough rockets and all that, and for the Russian

728
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 4: people to feel like they're also there's something going on,

729
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 4: and it's not just in a sub a whyland, But

730
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 4: the Ukrainioans have not attacked pipelines and ports yet. I

731
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 4: think if they really wanted to impact the revenues of Russia,

732
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 4: they should attack the ports and the pipelines, bringing Frudel

733
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 4: to the port and keep on blowing up pipeline and

734
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 4: then that would really have a big impact in the

735
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 4: revenue that Russia would get. But that would also have

736
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 4: an impact on all places. And the US don't want

737
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 4: to have millions in an election year. They don't want

738
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 4: to have the Biden adiministration is very very paranoid about

739
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:35,280
Speaker 4: having high gasoline prices before the election. So they're putting

740
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,919
Speaker 4: pressure on the Ukrainians to not attacks, to not attack ports.

741
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,320
Speaker 4: But if we get into a situation where the Ukrainians

742
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 4: become more desperate I need.

743
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:45,840
Speaker 3: More help than they might attack ports.

744
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 4: So that's where we could potentially have supplied disruptions.

745
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:51,399
Speaker 3: In terms of yes, sorry, I just.

746
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 2: Real quickly, how much do you think that pressure from

747
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 2: the ADMIN not to attack oil infrastructure is hampering the

748
00:38:59,160 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 2: war effort for you?

749
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 3: Right?

750
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 4: Well, at the end of the day, like if that

751
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 4: no help from the US, they would attack the old

752
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 4: facilities in Russia. But the fact that depending on US

753
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 4: weapons obviously they have to, right, you know, to listen

754
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 4: to what the US say. I mean as far as

755
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 4: they're helping. If the US stop helping, then of course

756
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 4: they will they will go. They will go for the

757
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 4: old facilities.

758
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 3: I think.

759
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:22,959
Speaker 4: And in terms of the elections, you're asking, like Trump

760
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 4: versus Biden, does it change anything for oil? I mean,

761
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 4: I think it's quite marginal or nothing, I would say

762
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 4: for US supply because despite all the talks, US productions

763
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 4: searched under Biden, So I don't think that Trump would

764
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 4: make it search more. I mean, it's just a question

765
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:42,439
Speaker 4: of geology and money. Actually, more than anything, I think

766
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 4: we can't be too far from peak in US productions.

767
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 3: So you know, I don't think the.

768
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 4: US supply grows as the potential of many millions of

769
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 4: barrels the extra So I think I think it's quite

770
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,880
Speaker 4: marginal for US production. But where there could be a

771
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 4: bit of an impact for oil would I would expect

772
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:05,240
Speaker 4: Trump to and force the sanctions on Iran more Titi,

773
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 4: so we might lose some oil from Iran, and that's

774
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 4: but again that we probably get a bit more oil

775
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 4: from the Saudist So.

776
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:13,439
Speaker 3: I'm not sure. I don't think.

777
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 4: I don't think Trump versus Biden have a big impact

778
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:17,760
Speaker 4: on oil prices.

779
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 1: All right, Well, Pierre, we're going to leave it there.

780
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for coming back on all lots

781
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,879
Speaker 1: and walking us through all these various soft commodities and

782
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: oil as well. Really appreciate you coming back on pleasure.

783
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 3: Thanks very much, thanksolling you opportunity.

784
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:47,240
Speaker 2: Thank you Joe.

785
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: That was super interesting. I really liked hearing someone's conception

786
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 1: of the cocoa market when they haven't necessarily been in

787
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 1: it that much, and like how they formed that thesis

788
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,840
Speaker 1: and decided to actually put on the trade totally.

789
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 2: I thought that was fascinating. I mean just hearing him

790
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 2: like walk through all of the different factors, whether it's

791
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 2: climate change, whether the two diseases.

792
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 1: Fertilizer was one that I hadn't heard that much about.

793
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 2: Before totally, but makes total sense. Like when you think

794
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 2: about it, and when he brings it up, some of

795
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 2: the metrics he looks at. I'm also interested in just

796
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 2: this point, which is obvious, but I hadn't really thought

797
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: about it, that you could have a quadrupling in the

798
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 2: price of cocoa, and even if that translates into a

799
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 2: quadrupling of the price of a cocoa bar or a

800
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 2: chuckolate bar that you buy that in a commodity that

801
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 2: ultimately is just not that big of a monthly expense

802
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 2: or weekly expense for people, you might not get much

803
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 2: of a demand response. If you had a quadrupling of

804
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 2: the gasoline prices, you might expect carpooling or people to

805
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 2: take less trips or you know whatever, or subway rides.

806
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 2: You're just not going to get that same effect the market.

807
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 3: That's small.

808
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it was kind of interesting to hear a

809
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 1: similar dynamic in copper as well.

810
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 3: Well.

811
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: The one other thing I was thinking about, just to

812
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: push the an inelasticity point a little bit more, I

813
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 1: wonder sometimes if all the headlines about cocoa prices going up,

814
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 1: if everyone rushes out to buy chocolate in the same

815
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: way I do, maybe you get like even a bit

816
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,359
Speaker 1: of a demand boost in those scenarios.

817
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 2: Or a bullwhip, right, because then everyone buys it, and

818
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,760
Speaker 2: then they're pulling demand from the future. And also whatever

819
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 2: you have in your pantry, Tracy, is probably you know,

820
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 2: it's it's hidden inventory, right, Like the statistical agencies can't

821
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 2: see into that, so then there's more cut. Who knows

822
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 2: whether that's an but it is a It is an

823
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 2: interesting question.

824
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, no one knows about my strategic chocolate reserve, Tracy.

825
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 2: And I never tell you about the time that I

826
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 2: was at the top of the Patronas towers in a

827
00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 2: nightclub and I talked to a palm oil magnate.

828
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,720
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, you have in Malaysia, right, yeah.

829
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, Malaysia.

830
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 3: Yeah.

831
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:52,439
Speaker 2: But it was It's interesting too because he was talking

832
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 2: about the fact that, like palm oil is a tree

833
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 2: based commodity, obviously, and he was describing very different market

834
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 2: dynamics versus a field based crop, in which a field

835
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 2: based crop you just have one person on a tractor,

836
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 2: are combine to the whole field, the labor intensivity, the

837
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 2: difficulty of automation when it comes to a tree based

838
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:15,320
Speaker 2: commodity versus field based commodity. There aren't many robots that

839
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 2: can climb trees yet as far as I know. So

840
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 2: it's interesting think about the market structure of some of

841
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 2: these different commodities and how different they are just depending

842
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,799
Speaker 2: on the growing conditions, how labor intensive, how prone they

843
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 2: are to automation scale, et cetera.

844
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 3: Things like that.

845
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 1: We should have asked Pierre about palm oil.

846
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 2: We'll have to have them back for that.

847
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, shall we leave it there.

848
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:34,879
Speaker 2: Let's leave it there.

849
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 1: This has been another episode of the Oudlots podcast. I'm

850
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:41,280
Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

851
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 2: And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

852
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:46,720
Speaker 2: Follow our guest Pierre on Durant. He's at on Duran Pierre.

853
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 2: Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman Ermann dash Ol

854
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 2: Bennett at Dashbot, and Kilbrooks at Kilbrooks. Thank you to

855
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 2: our producer Moses on Them. For more Oddlots content, go

856
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:58,840
Speaker 2: to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where we have

857
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 2: transcripts of lag and a newsletter, and you can chat

858
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 2: about all of these topics twenty four to seven in

859
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:08,400
Speaker 2: the discord with fellow listeners Discord dot gg, slash outlock.

860
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,759
Speaker 1: And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it

861
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 1: when we do deep dives into the price of Coco

862
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 1: and the way the market works, then please leave us

863
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:19,800
Speaker 1: a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember,

864
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:22,480
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865
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,759
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866
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867
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,560
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868
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869
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:36,800
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870
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 3: No