WEBVTT - Surveillance: Money Will Go Back To EM, Dennis Says 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.040 Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:32.199 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg here 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:34.000 in New York. I'm really pleased to say that joining 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:36.839 us now is Jeff Dennis Ubs, head of Global Emerging 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:39.960 Markets equity strategist, and he joins us on the phone. Jeff, 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:42.320 great to catch up with you, sir. Some confidence and 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:45.360 some optimism that you have in em Tell me how 0:00:45.400 --> 0:00:48.680 you convince the investor right now who has shifting investments 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:52.839 towards the United States to shift back international. I think 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:55.360 there's a couple there's a couple of things that really 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:58.720 highlight this. First of all, um our view is that 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:02.960 apart from one or two countries, actually three countries were Turkey, 0:01:03.400 --> 0:01:06.000 South Africa and Brazil, you have not really seen a 0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:10.240 deterioration in a key deterioration e M. Fundamentals during the 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:13.040 course of this year. Those three countries you have seen 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:15.880 that deterioration, and that means once you get to see 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:18.680 global financial markets settled down, and for us that means 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:21.200 the dollar stops going up and starts to go down again. 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:24.440 I think money will come back into the emerging markets. 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:28.000 So it's a mixture of reasonably sound fundamentals and in 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:32.520 most of the emerging market countries combined with our view 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:35.080 the dollars going lower of the course of the rest 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:37.800 of this year and into two thousand and nineteen, and 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:39.760 what that will do is pull money back towards the 0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:43.000 emerging markets. Jeff, is dollar witness a prerequisite for EM 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:46.280 equity to start performing again? That is that is my view. 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:49.240 For sure, we do. I mean, at the very least 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:52.480 you need dollar stability. But you you pose the question 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:54.600 right at the beginning by saying what gets people to 0:01:54.640 --> 0:01:56.800 move out of the US and look for emerging markets? 0:01:57.080 --> 0:01:59.640 I think the weaker dollar is part of that. And 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:01.960 if I was sitting here in the house view was 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:04.400 the dollar was going a lot stronger, it would be 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:07.000 just very hard to be optimistic about a EM. So 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.200 in my view, yes, it is absolutely critical to our 0:02:10.480 --> 0:02:12.560 to the view that you'll get some gains in them 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:13.760 over the rest of you. I think it's going to 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:16.000 be a blowout or anything like that, but we expect 0:02:16.040 --> 0:02:17.720 marks to be hired by the end of the buy 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:21.480 around seven from current levels dollars. Key to that from 0:02:21.480 --> 0:02:24.160 a thirty five thousand feet view, the regional shift has 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:26.480 been quite remarkable over the last six months away from 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.360 international into the United States. If you are thinking about 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.520 shaping things to pivot back, Jeff, there's some countries out 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:35.880 there that have aggressively high interest rates, including countries like 0:02:35.919 --> 0:02:39.359 Turkey and Argentina. Let's break em down a little bit more. 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:43.680 Where are you looking well? As I say, I think 0:02:43.720 --> 0:02:46.560 that for example, if you if we look at Turkey, 0:02:46.880 --> 0:02:49.400 Turkey has done some dramatic things on interest rates recently, 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:52.519 although it was obviously very much delayed, and they've still 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:55.520 got very large fundamental issues, which is a huge current 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:59.120 account deficit, which makes them vulnerable to any any hiccup 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:01.840 in terms of global financial conditions, we think you should 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:04.160 be more looking at the countries that have responded well 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:07.399 in terms of monetary policy to the pressures of recent months, 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:10.160 where we think in a week of dollar environment you 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:12.639 will get some some flows coming back in. A very 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:15.160 good example of that is Indonesia, which has been hit 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:18.160 very badly this year. We think the fundamentals are frankly 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:21.200 perfectly okay, Okay, They've got a modest current account deficit, 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:23.480 but in a week of dollar environment, I think that 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.440 goes away as a concern. So Indonesia is a place 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:28.400 we look. We look at career, which is a very 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:31.079 cheap market. Once again, of course there I guess the 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:34.280 risk and careers people being concerned about what the trade war, 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:35.720 which I guess is what we have to call up 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:37.320 between the U S and China, what that could do 0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:40.560 for Chinese growth, and therefore a follow one for Korean exports. 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:42.800 But the market is very cheap, and I'll give you one. 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:45.160 In Latin America, we like Mexico a lot. We think 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:48.680 the currency is very oversold. Still we think that then 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:51.040 after whatever we're gonna call it in future is going 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:54.200 to get redone and the economy continues to tick along, 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:57.360 you know, not very strong, but some perfectly okay. So 0:03:57.440 --> 0:03:59.600 those are some examples of markets we take a look at. 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:03.560 Markets are their banking and their finance. Is that the 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:09.480 opportunity to buy the established banks. We do have to 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:11.800 be overweight financials, and we do think that is a 0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:14.800 good way to to go back into these markets for 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:18.080 the for the medium to long term um. Your listeners 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:21.240 may not be aware, but basically fifty of the ms 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:25.080 c I Emerging Market Index now is technology and banks. 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:28.960 The text a bit banks are a bit less than 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:32.240 so you've got to go one one to the other. 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:35.800 We're not pushing technology dramatically, although you know we we 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:38.599 wouldn't be underweight text shares at this point in the end, 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:40.880 but we think the better way to play it is 0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:44.119 through financials, and there's reasons for that. You're getting credit 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:48.200 cycles in certain economies, but you are seeing a bit 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:50.520 of margin improvement as interest rates have gone up around 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:53.400 the world. And frankly, our analysts four e M banks 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:55.880 also things. A lot of banks in EM and everything 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:58.560 different plays as well. But Jeff, you've been doing this 0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:01.640 since time began. And where John it used to be 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:03.560 like an act of God. You put ten percent of 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:05.760 your money and e M and never more because it 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:09.800 was too risky. How much do you put in EM 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:12.880 within a blended portfolio? Is U b s saying that 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:16.159 the developed country and particularly the United States market is 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:19.000 so rich that you load the boat on e M. 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:21.880 How do you grade that? Definitely, No, you don't load 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:24.760 the boat on the M because unfortunately, so much of 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:27.480 how EM behaves will be determined not by what e 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.680 M itself is doing, but by what global financial markets 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:33.200 overall are doing. And that of course means fair bond deals, 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:36.320 UM and the dollar itself. So if we could time 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:38.480 this right, we'd all be very much richer than we are. 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:41.880 The problem is timing it is difficult, and so e 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:46.120 M is about now of the of the global benchmark, 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:47.919 and and I don't think it makes a lot of 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:50.279 sense for investors to be putting much more than that 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:53.279 amount of money into EM unless they're smarter than me 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:55.719 in terms of trying to time it. I think we 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:57.440 we still like the U S market. Are u S 0:05:57.440 --> 0:05:59.480 strategies put out of note yesterday. We think that the 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:02.480 high trade war could give you a short term pullback, 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:06.240 but we're still looking at SMP at the end of 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:08.279 the year. So actually, I think the US will be 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:11.440 you know, a competitive place to put money of four 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:13.720 emerging markets over the rest of the year. So I'm 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:15.760 not sure you're going to see huge out performance, but 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:17.839 I certainly think the time when you want to be 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.440 major underway. Tom which of course would have been the 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:22.599 call for the first nine months of this year. I 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:25.120 think that that time is probably beginning to come to 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:26.640 an end now, Jeff, I just want to get to 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:28.120 find a word and what's coming out of China at 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:30.919 the moment. They've promised this morning not to weaponize the currency, 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:32.840 but the data in the last tie y four hours 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:35.360 showing their trimming their treasury holdings, now there's going to 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:37.920 be some big conspiracy theories out there, so please dismiss 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:39.680 them if you can give us the reality check what's 0:06:39.680 --> 0:06:43.760 happening with China. We certainly think they're not going to 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:47.000 use the devaluation of the currency too as a response. 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:48.960 On the trade side, we also don't think they're going 0:06:49.000 --> 0:06:52.960 to shared if you like their um their treasury holdings. 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:55.479 But I think it's a question of stocks versus flows. 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:58.200 We think what is quite lightly as China will not 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:02.000 buy as much you stebt at the margin going forward, 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:05.960 so I buy as much as they've done in the past, um, 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:08.200 but when we don't believe they're going to sell less 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:10.400 stock of debt they've already got, so I think Chinese 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:14.000 demanded the margin may come down, but you know, for 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:16.720 them to actually start selling aggressively what they own will 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.400 just make things worse for themselves because they'll they'll have 0:07:19.440 --> 0:07:22.800 to sell into a falling market. So weaponizing either bonds 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.200 or the dollar is still or the currency, I should say, 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:28.840 is still very unlikely. We think what China is still 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:32.760 trying to do is to be constructive as much as possible, 0:07:33.360 --> 0:07:36.400 um considered responses to what's going on in the US 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:38.400 and see how this plays out. Because at the end 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:42.040 of the day, a major, major breakdown of economic relationships 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:45.520 between China and the US is dangerous for China because 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.960 it puts the economy under more pressures. So I think cautious, 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:52.480 considered responses by the Chinese will continue to be the 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:55.760 most likely thing to expect. Here's Jeff Dners, thank you 0:07:55.800 --> 0:08:10.760 so much with us Life from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.360 I'm really pleased to say the former GE vice chair 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:18.680 has dropped by Beth Comstock, author now of Imagine It Forward, Courage, Creativity, 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:21.720 and the Power of Change. Beth, good morning to you, 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:23.720 Good morning, Thanks for having me. Can we just start 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:26.640 by talking about the time when you you turned down 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:29.160 Steve Jobs. It gets on the phone and gives you 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:31.920 a call out of nowhere and you say no. Eventually, 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:34.080 how does that work. Yeah, well, I was at NBC 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:38.280 at the time, leading did the digital in the Digital Future, 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:40.439 and it was a tough assignment. And I got to 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:42.920 work with Apple and they'd reached out to me about 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:45.000 a job. At first it was in the iTunes area 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:46.440 and I get a call one day and it's like 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:48.720 Steve Jobs sort of lobbying. Hey, I'd like just want 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:50.400 to say, we'd love to have you here, and he 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:54.120 said something uh with the iPhone hadn't been introduced, and 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:56.360 he said things are going to get really big here 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:58.640 and uh. And it just didn't seem like the right 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:01.160 job for me at the time, so I said no. Um. 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.000 And then he came back a couple of months later, 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:05.839 he was looking for something a new sort of innovation role, 0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:08.719 certainly around clean tech, and I said no again. And 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:11.839 I did regret it for for a while for a 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:13.880 couple of reasons. I mean one, I remember sitting at 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:15.800 the kitchen table with my husband. We were going through 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:19.200 the financials, going how big could this stock ever be? Really? 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.120 I mean really, um, So clearly I didn't imagine that 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:26.920 forward um and UM. And I think I partly it 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:28.960 was I didn't want I didn't I saw them as 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:31.960 a technology company. I was in media, wanted to do content, 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:34.839 so I had a clear strategic reason for not wanting 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:36.840 to do it. But sure I regretted it. Apple went 0:09:36.880 --> 0:09:39.319 on to become this amazing jug or not. I think 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:41.560 I could have learned to be better. I think jobs 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:43.160 and that team would have pushed me to be better. 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.240 I regretted that, and maybe there was a bit of 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:47.480 fear and not taking it, and I sort of regretted that. 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:49.720 But in the end, I was very loyal to my company. 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:51.880 I had good reasons for not wanting to move my 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:55.199 family and taking that on a lot of people. David 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:59.079 Brooks has been great about this. The smooth people and 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:03.680 and and Masters of Business Administration NBA. People always have 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:08.200 a zeitgeist of the moment, the present MBA zeitgeist. What 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:12.280 do they get wrong about the realities of managing? Yeah? 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:15.680 I love that question, I I yeah, No, it's around. 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:20.960 You're good. I m I Phara. I recruited at Gee. 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:23.240 I would recruit up too hundred and fifty nbas every 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:25.280 year for about a decade. So I got to work. 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:28.200 I didn't go to business school. You've heard every line 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:31.000 I've and why we recruited them and why I was 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:33.600 attracted to NBA's as they come with an amazing toolkit. 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:36.880 What NBA's are not trained to do is to be 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:40.040 entrepreneurial or encouraged to be entrepreneurial and put in those 0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:43.160 situations of figuring it out. And the argument I'm making 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:44.880 in my book is that we're just in such a 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:47.800 time of such disruptive change that there is no tool 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:50.120 kit for that. And what's great John about her book 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:52.120 as they fight like cats and dogs. I mean she's 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:54.559 you know, like page two, there's four people in the 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:57.000 room screaming at everybody. Here's a big question that would 0:10:57.040 --> 0:10:59.199 never happen on surveillance. Now that that happens in a 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:04.640 commercial breaks like pretty, I'm pretty sure our audience can 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:09.080 work that out for themselves best. This year, two big 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:15.480 corporate stories, perhaps defined by mismanagement, Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, Tesla 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:18.120 Elon Musk with a big question that I know that 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:21.199 you can answer. Can you be an entrepreneur in a 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:25.160 company as big as Facebook, as big as Tesla? I were? 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:27.400 I wonder, I I wonder. I think this is a 0:11:27.480 --> 0:11:30.320 challenge for every company and investors to think about. We 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:33.240 have these few amazing leaders who seemingly do it. But 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:34.959 there is also a time when you need, maybe need 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:37.160 to change out the leadership from a and have them 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:38.959 have a different kind of role. I'm not suggesting Mark 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:42.200 zucker Book should should step aside, but does he have 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:45.680 enough people around him that can help him think through Really? 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:47.720 In this case, to me, Facebook was and imagine it 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:50.760 forward challenge, right? Were they thinking ahead of those unintended 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:54.160 consequences that could have happened? I would say maybe there 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:56.920 would be a need for more strategic thinking there. Elon 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:59.120 Musk seems to me to be a good case of 0:11:59.160 --> 0:12:01.679 needing a great to old culture and a great team. 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.480 And you can't expect the leader to do everything, and 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:06.600 maybe he's signed up to do more than he should. 0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:08.959 How difficult is it, though, to change a culture when 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:11.440 the culture is defined by the entrepreneur who found at 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:14.040 the company. Yeah, well, I think that is the big challenge. 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:17.280 We expect them to be superhuman, these these business gods, 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:20.480 and they are not. Well, then the business gods is 0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:23.400 They've got to delegate at some point, and so much 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:26.160 of it is succession, so much of it is just 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:28.760 the day to day grind of delegating. How do you 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:33.360 delegate constructively and do it with courage, creativity and truly 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:35.680 have power to change. I mean that's the issue, isn't it. Yeah, 0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:37.600 we'll look at look at Musk and Tesla. I mean, 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:39.360 I only know what I read, but a lot of 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:41.440 people have left in the past six months. Obviously it's 0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.480 a stressful situation. But if you put the investment into 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:46.559 the team and delegating and things, I don't know. He 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:48.320 needs to say, I don't have all the answers. I 0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:50.360 need you to figure it out. Here's where we're going. 0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:52.680 You help us. I gotta squeeze in this question because 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:54.839 John's only working like a thirty eight hour week with 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:58.679 his four properties. Are we working too long of weeks? 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.600 Our parent didn't do this, did they? Well, I would say, 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:04.440 I don't know. I think we're working maybe on the 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:07.160 wrong things too long. I'm big on getting out and discovering, 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:08.920 get out and seeing where trends are. And I think 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.959 we're in the Yeah. That are you in the same 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:15.199 leadings too often having the same discussions? You probably shouldn't 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:18.280 do that. No, but just the whole you got twenty 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:22.600 percent of the population working, and do they are they working? Smart? 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:24.960 I think that's the question. Maybe if it's seventy hours 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.040 and ten percent of it's out and discovering trends in 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:29.959 the future, I'd say that's worth it. Beth Conto, thank 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:32.240 you so much. The book has imagined it forward, courage, 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:36.080 creativity and the power of change. And what's glorious about it, 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.280 I'll be direct, is all of you that are fed 0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:40.960 up with thought leaders. This is the anti thought leader 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:47.439 book that sounds like it is. I'm so sick I 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:50.400 thought leadership. What does that even mean? It doesn't mean anything. 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.679 And you know there's a lot of yelling and screaming 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:54.640 and people or you know, they try to come to 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:59.080 decisions that are constructive, like her brilliant decision not to 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:04.240 load the boat on it will stock it fourth not alone. 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:21.720 Thank you. So it's always good to speak to a 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:25.200 gentleman of the legislative branch, but even better to speak 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:30.680 to someone who actually understands executive capabilities more important than anything. 0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:34.160 He's a former mayor of Dayton, Ohio, holding court in 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.280 the tenth district of Ohio South. I'm gonna call it 0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:41.200 Southwest of Columbus. Uh. Michael Turner joins us this morning Congressman, 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.160 thrilled to have you with us. What did you learn, 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:49.280 Congressman about the special election to your northeast, the twelfth 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:53.280 Congressional district. How do you guys get Republican turnout for 0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:57.280 the mid term election? Well, thank you, appreciate you have 0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:01.240 me this morning, and UM for you know, focusing on Ohio. 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:05.120 I think the issue probably for most people is is 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:08.720 getting out to vote coming up this this November. I 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.040 think that if you look across the country, people see 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:14.240 that the economy is proving. They see that UM, the 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:18.480 outlook is bright. You know, Ohio frequently UM leads in 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:22.120 recession and lags in recovery. Right now, OHI always strong. 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:24.880 Do we know that the economy is strong? Um? You know, 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:30.000 special elections always have different turnouts in general elections because 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.960 they're scheduled at irregular times, which is what the Kurd 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:37.040 in Columbus um for the best congressional race. I think 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.320 pretty much everyone knows that the election is coming up 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.520 in November is the one that's important that they need 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:43.960 to turn out for. And I think that's the one 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:47.040 that UM where people are going to voice their opinion 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:50.400 that the economy is strong. UM, we need to continue 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:52.880 the direction we're going to build jobs. It's just one 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:54.840 more question in the politics before we get to a 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:58.280 year important abilities and armed services and intelligence and that 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:00.720 is and I don't mean you and the tenth district, 0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:03.640 but as a general statement, do you want the president 0:16:03.760 --> 0:16:07.720 to show up? I mean is he helping mainstream Republicans 0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:12.800 like you right now? Well? You know, um, I think 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:16.640 the president in in focusing on the economy is probably 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:18.720 the best place that we need him to be UM. 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:22.240 And that's where um he's he's making headway. We can 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.920 see it with the renegotiated NaSTA with Mexico. We can 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:29.520 see it with the job reports. I think he's focused there. 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:33.400 I think it's probably the one that resonates with the people, um, 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:35.360 you know, at their kitchen tables and what's happening in 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:37.880 their household. And that's where his voice is probably most important. 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:40.400 Let's talk about your abilities coming as out of mayor 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.120 of dating of course with Roy Patterson there, you've always 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:45.960 looked at armed services and protecting protection of our air 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:49.880 force assets. Right now, there is a dialogue with Russia. 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:52.120 Do we risk with all the back and forth of 0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:54.920 the Russia probe and all that, do we risk giving 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:59.920 up intelligence secrets, you know, I this is this is 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:03.360 important debate I think with respect to overall our democracy 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:06.639 and is there you know, three real important issues for 0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:10.200 us to address here. One obviously is Russian meddling. Um. 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:12.600 We need to make certainly identify the ways in which 0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:14.359 they're attempting to do that. They've done it in Europe, 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.880 They've done it, you know in the Baltics. Um specifically, 0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:20.600 they're they're trying to interstere there in the politics. We 0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:24.600 saw even a mccrone's election at France. Getting an understanding 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:29.720 of what they have undertaken to try to affect public 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:33.920 opinion and democracies and dabble in our democracies and elections 0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:36.639 is incredibly important. The second, of course, is the the 0:17:36.680 --> 0:17:39.600 issue with respect to the presidents himself and his campaign 0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:41.879 and I think Hillary Clinton's campaign and the and the 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:46.000 and the give a Credit National Committee. That's an important 0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:49.160 dialogue to have, um. And you know what occurred there, 0:17:49.200 --> 0:17:52.320 I mean the fact that Hillary Clinton's campaign, the Democratic 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:57.320 National Committee, funded a former British spy to go to 0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:00.919 the Russians define dirt on their opponents is certainly I 0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:04.080 think equally as important of an issue's review. And then 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:06.879 then thirdly this this issue of what was happening in 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:10.280 the Department of Justice in our intelligence community. It clearly 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:12.639 appears that there were abuses. There are certainly in the 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:17.720 baser courts where um, politically funded opposition materials were used 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:20.600 and as evidence in a court for the purposes of 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:24.800 getting surveillance on a presidential campaign. Um, you know, all 0:18:24.840 --> 0:18:27.199 of those things I think are incredibly important for us 0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:30.720 to get within the day to day grind of you 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:34.719 doing this in the legislative offices? Are we naive about 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.879 the Russians? To me that whatever the Republican or Democrats, 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.639 Secretary Clinton, President Trump, whatever the dirt is of the moment, 0:18:42.040 --> 0:18:46.000 are we just naive about the Russia impulse into our 0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:50.879 domestic affairs? Well? I think, Um, I think perhaps the 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:53.680 whole West is, including United States and our European allies, 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.560 because we we you know, we saw even after the 0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:59.200 Berlin Waltz fell, a sense of you know, there are 0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:02.520 partner NATO declaring that we don't even have Russia as 0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:06.280 an adversary. Um, you know, adversary self select and Russia 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:10.439 certainly has self selected that they see both in meddling 0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:14.440 in our democracies and their aggressive invasion of Georgia Ukraine, 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.680 their military build up, their monorization of the nuclear weapons, 0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:22.400 their self declaration of what their trigger is using nuclear weapons. 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:26.480 They are our adversary, Carson, in the time that we've 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:28.480 got left, I really want to turn back to something 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.760 I think Americans are remarkably naive about, and that we 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.040 look at the Wright Brothers is being down in the 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:37.000 Carolinas in the iconic photo of the plane and the beach, 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:41.119 and yet your district is the heart of our original 0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:46.320 aviation at district, you're no doubt a supporter of Right Patterson, 0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:49.040 which was the Wilbur right Field of the nineteen twenties, 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:52.760 and all that tell us about the need that we 0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:57.800 have to husband our air force assets in a time 0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:01.760 of peace. It always slips away, doesn't it. And what 0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.720 is right Paterson Air Force based doing to keep that 0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:09.960 energy going? And particularly I look at the air base wing. 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:14.240 What's the forward motion in a time of peace? And 0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:16.359 that's a that's a great point. And I appreciate that 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:18.840 the you know, with the Right Brothers and our innovation, 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:21.680 you know where they uh built and did all their 0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:24.920 their research in data Ohio and as you mentioned in 0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:27.800 What's North Carolina achieved the first flight came back to 0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:30.960 the right path from that point through stealth. Our engineers 0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:35.600 and scientists have tried to advance us with ingenuity. What 0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:38.840 happens frequently is we cut our budgets and we stopped 0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:42.679 that that learning, that that advancement of ingenuity until we 0:20:42.760 --> 0:20:45.720 have an adversary who goes past us. And we're staying 0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:47.960 that with China with what they've done and dealing our 0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:51.040 technology for the U thirty five, but we're now looking 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:53.840 to modernize the five instead of us challenging our engineer 0:20:53.840 --> 0:20:56.560 and scientists and saying, let's know, let's reach as far 0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:59.080