1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: Brought you by Bank of America, Mary Lynch. Investing in 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: local communities, economies and a sustainable future. That's a power 3 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce Fenner and Smith Incorporated 4 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: Member s I p C. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 6 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: insight from the best of economics, finance, investment and international relations. 7 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com 8 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:49,560 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg We're joined executive Chairman 9 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 1: of Associates. But actually Richard is much more than that. 10 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 1: He's one of the most famous businessmen PR gurus in France, 11 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: if not in Europe. And the interview that I was 12 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: looking forward to the most today, Richard, what did we 13 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: find out yesterday? Is it that the polls are right? 14 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: Is that that we still don't know how mac coin 15 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 1: is going to have enough support to govern? Or is 16 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 1: it that your France is deeply changing? These are candidates 17 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: that came out of nowhere. First of all, I would 18 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: say that the first lesson that you have forty one 19 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: percent of French people who supported two candidates who are 20 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: ready to exit to make I would say, a big 21 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 1: extreme decisions. And this is quite concerning, and we should 22 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 1: not forget that before the win of Emmanuel mccon as 23 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 1: running the first round, Definitely we should not forget this 24 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 1: nineteen plus percent of men show and the twenty one 25 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: plus percent of Marine Dupin. And this is white concerning 26 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: because this definitely showing that you have so many people 27 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: in France, like in many countries all over the world, 28 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: who are very frustrated, who want a real change. The 29 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: second message is that France are ready for a revolution 30 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: and by the way, it is the name of of 31 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: the program of Immanuel macon, but a positive revolution. And 32 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:15,639 Speaker 1: the third lesson is that which was absolutely unusual and unexpected, 33 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: if that the French people are ready to elect potentially 34 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,639 Speaker 1: a guy who more or less he's coming from nowhere, 35 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: because and this was more an American dream, you know, 36 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: this is more the American dream DNA, and I didn't 37 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: think and many others didn't think that this could happen 38 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: when day in France the orchard is this out of conviction, right? 39 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: And if it is out of conviction, it means that 40 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: he could muster enough support either independently in the legislatives 41 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 1: or through coalition, or is it because none of the 42 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: other candidates were palatable to a majority of people. Here, 43 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: I think the French people are fed up with the 44 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: traditional political elite, and this was said for monthsters, even 45 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 1: for years, and they really wanted a change in the 46 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: political lengths and the French political party. We're not promoting 47 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 1: enough the young generation of politicians. And suddenly you have 48 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: a young man nine years old, coming from a private sector, 49 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: who spent only two years in politics, who was pushed 50 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: by two or three mentors to be recommended to francois 51 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: Land to be a deputy Secretary General of the Eliza, 52 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 1: who took an amazing opportunity to become the Minister of 53 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 1: Finance of the Economy because his predecessor resigned, not because 54 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: he was part of the government. So Emmanuel mccon has 55 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: a fantastic star lighting in the sky who is helping him. 56 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: And he's also an opportunist, which is important to have 57 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: when you want to be in politics. But Richard, what 58 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: does that Guardian angel as he suggests that mccon has 59 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: do for him in the legislatives because he can have 60 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 1: a good plan for reforms if he can't govern, then 61 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: this country may be worse off in five years than 62 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: it is now. So this is the one million lawyer 63 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: or euro question in fact, is what will happen in 64 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: the next two months, because he will have to designate 65 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: and to nominate a government no choice. We have no 66 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 1: clue about who will be the potential next prime minister. 67 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: It could come from I would say the center, he 68 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 1: could come from the private sector. Everything is possible because everything. 69 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: Every day he is making some quite i would say, 70 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: interesting and surprising decisions and he is now surrounded by people. 71 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:34,479 Speaker 1: So diverse diversity is very important for Emmanuel mccron. Gender 72 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: equality is important for Emmanuel mccron. So we we we 73 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: don't really know who could be the next prime minister. 74 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: But what will happen out of June when the I 75 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 1: would say elections at the Congress, that the parliament will happen. 76 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: This is a big question mark because maybe it will 77 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 1: not reflect the results of the presidential election. In France, 78 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: we elect a president, we don't really only support a party. 79 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: And this is what happened yesterday, so and we'd see 80 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: what would happen on May seven, you know, because it's 81 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:11,799 Speaker 1: still a question mark yes, he's definitely Emmanuel Macon probably 82 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: the potential winner. But we don't know what could happen, 83 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: you know, especially the debate the TV gate would be 84 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: very interesting to watch and and and we are in 85 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: a very impredictable situation. To Mr Adias, good morning from 86 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 1: New York City. I look forward to seeing you in 87 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 1: two weeks. But hers help me here with a little 88 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 1: bit of history, which you are experts. And if we 89 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: migrate from Charles de gaul to Mr Alan, did the 90 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 1: Fifth Republic die yesterday? Definitely? I think it's a huge transformation. 91 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: Um I would say that we are definitely writing a 92 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 1: new chapter in the French politics, no question. Um I 93 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: would I would say, maybe, yes, died, But the problem 94 00:05:57,920 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 1: is not just to die. Is now we need to 95 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 1: build a new, a new era, no question. So I 96 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 1: don't know if the next president would be ready to 97 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 1: move to bring everyone in Versailles, where traditionally you put 98 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: everyone together to write a new constitution, et cetera. But 99 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: if we really want a deep needed transformation of the 100 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: political French system, we need to go to maybe a 101 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: new a new big chapter. And I think Emmanuel mccon 102 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 1: at least is ready for that. The very important statement 103 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 1: there about a new constitution. Help me here with what 104 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,919 Speaker 1: Charles Degald did which would make a very strong executive branch. 105 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:41,039 Speaker 1: Would you suggest that France needs a more American like 106 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: or British like power of the legislature. Do we need 107 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 1: to get back to the fourth Republic or back you know, 108 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: just after I don't know if we need to go back. 109 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: Usually we look forward. But definitely we need this change. 110 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 1: We definitely need the change. We need to be ready 111 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,599 Speaker 1: for coalitions. We need to be more inclusive. You know, 112 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: we're always talking about inclusive growth. We should have a 113 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: more inclusive political system. We should more talk to the 114 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: private sector leaders. We should talk to the use. We 115 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: should involve more use. We should not ignore what, as 116 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: I say to France scene, this frustrated people, the three 117 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: plus million job less, unemployed, people who are really making 118 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: a big change, the people who are questioning about the 119 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: future of Europe. All of these people need to have 120 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: a voice. And this is why the system has to change. 121 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 1: The education system in France is not appropriate anymore at all. 122 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: So many transformation, many business models have to change. This 123 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: is my personal conviction at least, and this is why 124 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:54,239 Speaker 1: I'm not surprised by the by having Emmanuel MCom becoming 125 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: what is becoming. But you're absolutely certain that the French 126 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 1: people want this because my concern when you look at 127 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: the economics, so the great ideas that you mentioned, When 128 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 1: you look at the economics, one of the problems is 129 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: that fronts manufactures things as much or as the same 130 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 1: quality as pain, but actually pay for them a lot more. 131 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: So there needs to be a reduction in labor. Are 132 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: we going to see protests and manifestations in the street 133 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: every week if he tries to get that done. You know, 134 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: it's quite a tradition in France to have people having 135 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: strikes and doing strikes. But at the same time we 136 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: need reforms. This is not negotiable and this is what 137 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 1: what we are saying for years. We cannot continue with 138 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 1: the system which is totally i would say obsolete, no question. 139 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:38,959 Speaker 1: And you know we organize that. You know from seeing 140 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: many international global conferences where we put together investment, foreign 141 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: direct investors, political leaders, entrepreneurs and g o s. And 142 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 1: the real message coming all the times is a guys, 143 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: when France will become again business friendly, when France big 144 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: will come attractive, So much talent exist in France, for 145 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: he is becoming a start up nation, but the tax 146 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: system is so heavy it has to be reformed. Notally, 147 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 1: the education system is not ready for our next big 148 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:15,960 Speaker 1: challenges robotiques, artificial intelligence based out of the jobs of 149 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: today and tomorrow. We're not steering ready for that. Mr Adias, 150 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with this, joining us 151 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 1: in our studios in New York. Julia Cornado, wonderful to 152 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 1: have you here. You were the Chief North American Economist 153 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: or b MP PARRYBA the large large bank to the 154 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: financial systems of Europe. Did they breathe a ginormous sigh 155 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: of relief? Excuse me? Ginormous? Is Rosetta Stone level for French? Um, 156 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: it's a huge deal, isn't it? From the MP PERI Bond, 157 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,719 Speaker 1: sock gen and Credit Act, it definitely is. I mean, 158 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 1: eliminating a major tail risk. It doesn't solve all the 159 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: problems or necessarily move forward some of the reforms that 160 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: need to happen still in the financial sector, but just 161 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:12,079 Speaker 1: getting that tail risk off the table is quite important. 162 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: That tail risk off the table. Let's look. Let's look 163 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: domestically now to what is a busy week in Washington, 164 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: a lot of risk. You the president continuing to talk 165 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 1: about continuing to talk about the prospects for healthcare reform 166 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: and tax reform, all the while looking at three legislative 167 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: days here ahead of a potential government shut down at 168 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: the end of the week. Give us, give us your 169 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: sense of the lay of the land and Washington, at 170 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 1: least for this week ahead. It's it's just yet another 171 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 1: remarkable week ahead for us on the policy front in 172 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 1: the US. I mean, I think at the end of 173 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: the day, what one would expect is that they will 174 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 1: pull themselves together and get a continuing resolution signed so 175 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 1: that the government keeps the lights on. But there's plenty 176 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,559 Speaker 1: of saber rattling and brinksmanship potentially over the wall this 177 00:10:54,640 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 1: ambition to revive the repeal of Obamacare. Are the uh 178 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: noises about tax reform. I think the tax reform is 179 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: more smoke and mirrors. We're not really going to learn 180 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 1: anything this week. I doubt that we really see a 181 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: lot on the health care front. Even if they get 182 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 1: something to through the House, they're still the Senate. It 183 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: just seems like such a heavy lift. But so I 184 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: think there's lots of risk at the end of the day, 185 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: I expect we get a continuing resolution signed and we 186 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: move on. And with that is is that the new 187 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: normal now? Is that status quo? To get continuing resolutions? 188 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 1: In other words, how disappointing would that be to markets 189 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:31,839 Speaker 1: to have another one of these stop gaps spending bills? 190 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 1: You know, that's hard to say. I mean, I think 191 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: we we haven't seen a lot of productivity out of Washington. Um. 192 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: I think the prospects for certainly for some of them 193 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: more fundamental tax reform and tax overhauls with the border 194 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: adjustment tax, the probabilities of that kind of reform have 195 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:52,439 Speaker 1: definitely receded. Um. Will we get a tax cut probably 196 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: at some point um. But yeah, it's it's hard to 197 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: say what would be disappointing to markets? Markets certainly have 198 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,079 Speaker 1: been looking at the glass half full. So far? What 199 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: have we heard from the Treasury secretary? He spoke twice 200 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 1: over these last few days, first an event ahead of 201 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: the im from the World Bank Spring meetings, and then 202 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 1: he was on stage with them Madame leguard At at 203 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: the i m F doing a Q and A with her. 204 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 1: What's the projecting about this administration's economic policy at this point? Well, 205 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: of course, you know, the Treasury Secretary is going to 206 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: be taking the again the glass half full. He's he's 207 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: saying that they're committed to tax reform. He's I think 208 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: there is some relief that they're not taking the harder 209 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 1: line on things like trade policy or currency manipulation. And 210 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: he seems to strike a more moderate tone there. And 211 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: that's a that's that's reassuring, um. But you know, it's 212 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: it's it's it's a legislative labyrinth in Washington, and you 213 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 1: really need to trade a lot of horses to get 214 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: things done. There's lots and lots of vested interests. That's 215 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 1: how we designed our political system. And and both the 216 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 1: good news and the bad news is it's really hard 217 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 1: to get things done, which means less disruptive things are 218 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: are less likely to happen. But so some of the 219 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: more exciting, game changing reforms are less likely to happen. 220 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: I just want to get your sense of the headline 221 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: from that conversation with that Christine Legard. He said that 222 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: in America first policy or reprioritizing America's role in the 223 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: global economy is not inherently bad for the global economy. 224 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: That makes sense I mean it's an argument that makes sense. Sorry, 225 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 1: you know, I think that that's more of a headline 226 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 1: and less of a reality. I think this idea that 227 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 1: we're going to deglobalize is is just not pragmatic. I mean, 228 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,839 Speaker 1: it's too good for the global economy as a whole. 229 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 1: It's too good for business. Uh. And I think ultimately 230 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 1: we'll get maybe some adjustments in certain trade agreements. But 231 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 1: but but globalizations here to stay. Globalization is here to stay. 232 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: Will continue with Julia Cornado this on a merger Monday 233 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 1: France election. France election, shall call Fois Cornard or whatever 234 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 1: francies francies having like a two hundred lunch. I think, well, 235 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 1: that's true. We can't we can't order. That's why that's 236 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: why Hal from New Jersey said, you're not going how 237 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 1: about this though? Uh, Beckton Dickinson and see our Bard 238 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: in New Jersey with a merger last yesterday afternoon. I'll 239 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: call it. And now we see an upgrade PPG going 240 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 1: after excell Nobel and to excel Nobel and to say 241 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 1: clearly they will not move European factories to the United States. 242 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. Julia Carnado help us here with some 243 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: American analysis. When you look at the economy right now, 244 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: do you see nominal g D pop which pops revenues, 245 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: which works down the income statement to sustain cash flows, 246 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: which means I can own stocks this morning? Well, so one. So, 247 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 1: I'm a member of the National Association of Business Economics 248 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: and we just released our second quarter survey and um 249 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 1: and what we did see and there was an improvement 250 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 1: in profits. That was probably the biggest headline out of 251 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: the survey, and it came from increased pricing power. Now 252 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: that may not drive well with what we've seen in 253 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: the consumer price index of late, but I think when 254 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: we dig into the details, we can and see it's 255 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 1: really driven by the manufacturing goods producing sector, by the 256 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: rebound and commodities and the the global manufacturing cycle. And 257 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 1: I think that that's filtering into US bottom lines, not 258 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: so much into capex and hiring plans. Those are sort 259 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 1: of chugging along, but it is they are companies are 260 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: seeing the profitability. How should we we regard this data 261 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 1: from the n a B. We've had these debates about 262 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: soft data and hard data exactly what is what do 263 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: these data tell you? Well, so, our survey is designed 264 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: to be very specific and so you know, specific questions 265 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: about sales and hiring and profitability rather than general questions 266 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: about sentiment. And that means we got less of a 267 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: pop in the Q one survey. Uh and we and 268 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 1: we did see some fading in the second quarter. Uh So, 269 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: I think if you, if you kind of look into 270 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: the details, what we see as a pretty solid late 271 00:15:54,120 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 1: cycle economy, hiring, sales, profitability all sort of close to 272 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 1: longer run averages. So not particularly exciting, but I think yeah, 273 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 1: in terms of that tension between soft and hard data, 274 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: the hard data seemed to be saying, uh, no fireworks 275 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: positive or negative. We're just kind of cruising along at 276 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: a decent pace. Tom asked you about GDP. Let me 277 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: ask you about inflation. What are inflation expectations like from 278 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: from those whom you survey? Well, so inflation, so there 279 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 1: is some optimism that there's some better pricing power than 280 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: we've seen in the last couple of years. I think 281 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: that again gets back to the materials and energy sectors 282 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 1: that really got hit. Uh So, I think there is 283 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 1: some optimism around, optimism around that, but it still is 284 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: a struggle. You've still got price sensitive consumers who are 285 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: still pretty cautious. So UM expectations are moderate and spending 286 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: is moderate. There has been fabulous coverage of retail folks. Thanks, 287 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 1: and this is again our team getting on the phone 288 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: to people that manage manner rather matter. I'll get up, manner, 289 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: manage Monday. It's because you go, Colin, you gotta tell 290 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 1: me I can't have a bottle of champagne. While David 291 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:10,879 Speaker 1: Guras waxing philosophical about the French elections, well there was 292 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 1: tens somewhere. I mean, I mean, thank you, David for 293 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 1: allowing me to get that Henriotte champagne down yesterday. Help 294 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 1: me or you get this out, help me here. Julia 295 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: Cornado with the death of retail, I mean you mentioned 296 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: consumers a little sluggage. I don't buy. It's just Amazon. 297 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 1: I just don't buy. I mean, I get it. That 298 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:33,479 Speaker 1: is Amazon. It is. It is a very broad based 299 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: and seismic shift in the way consumers spend money and 300 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:41,439 Speaker 1: what they spend money on, and that's really pressuring the 301 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: traditional retail models. Consumers like experiences more than goods. The 302 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 1: way they buy, the way they search, the way they 303 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 1: connect with each other is is different, and that gives 304 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 1: rise to more opportunity for new models, but it really 305 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,439 Speaker 1: really pressures the old the old school retailer. I just 306 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:01,479 Speaker 1: want you to know that a wise guy like Julia 307 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:07,479 Speaker 1: Cornado David thinks tuition is an experience. I have two 308 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: kids in college. Okay, I'm very sensitive to that. I 309 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: spend a lot of money, of my money on that. 310 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: For sure. Have no idea what we're talking. How big 311 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: a weight is retail right now on the economy overall, 312 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 1: and how do we get past that? So I think, again, 313 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 1: it's not that the consumers aren't spending, it's the way 314 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 1: that they're spending is different. So I think for an 315 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: overall economy perspective, it's okay, but you are going to 316 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: see some store closures. We've seen a lot of announcements 317 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 1: along those lines and a big change. I think from 318 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 1: a macro perspective, things are okay. The consumer is fine, um, 319 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 1: but but you know, there is some structural changes within 320 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 1: the retail industry that need to happen, and that's going 321 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:51,359 Speaker 1: to mean changing employment, changing investment, and changing profitability. Thank 322 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 1: you for coming in today's particularly earlier with Francine in 323 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 1: Paris putting up with you know, the wonderful logistics. We 324 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: have to go. Julia Cornottle, Thank you so much. Micro 325 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 1: Policy Perspectives brought you by Bank of America Mary Lynch, 326 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 1: dedicated to bringing our clients insights and solutions to meet 327 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:21,199 Speaker 1: the challenges of a transforming world. That's the power of 328 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 1: global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce Feeder and Smith Incorporated Member 329 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: s I p C. There's something new from Bloomberg. It's 330 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,199 Speaker 1: called Lens. Starting right now, you can use the Bloomberg 331 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:42,640 Speaker 1: iOS app off your iPhone or iPad, or our new 332 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: Google Chrome extension to read any news story on any website, 333 00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 1: scan it, and then instantly see the news stories relevant 334 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:55,720 Speaker 1: market data from Bloomberg. In addition, see all the bios 335 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: of the key people mentioned in the story. It's called Lens, 336 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 1: and it is just that, a lens into the people 337 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 1: and the data of any story you may be reading. Again, 338 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 1: Lens brings you the power of Bloomberg's news and data. 339 00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 1: Download or io s app or search for the Bloomberg 340 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: extension at the Chrome Store to try lens out. Learn 341 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: more at bloomberg dot com slash lens. Let's get some 342 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 1: broader perspective now on this administration on what's happening in 343 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 1: Washington From David Rothkoff. He's the founder and c of 344 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,640 Speaker 1: Garden Rothcoff, the CEO and editor of the FP Group, 345 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 1: and the author of a new book, The Great Questions 346 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 1: of Tomorrow. He joins us on our phone line, Stave Rothcoff, 347 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 1: there is perhaps no bigger expert on the NSC than 348 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: you on national security issues, So let's go there. To start, 349 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 1: we have the Secretary of Defense, Jim Madis in Afghanistan 350 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 1: on a surprise visit today. What's your sense of of 351 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: who's driving national security policy in this administration right now? Well, 352 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 1: if you can imagine a car with four or five 353 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: steering wheels, I think I'd give you the best idea. 354 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,159 Speaker 1: I mean, the President's gone in one direction, and you know, 355 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 1: Maddis and McMaster sort of going in another more traditional direction. 356 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: We got still big divide between the White House and 357 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:15,200 Speaker 1: the intelligence community and state departments off there, not with 358 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: much support and not with much visibility until Erston trying 359 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 1: to get his legs out under him. And then you've 360 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,880 Speaker 1: got the sort of circle of people around the president 361 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: who are still you know, sort of X factors, whether 362 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 1: it's recently sort of devoted Bannon or some of the 363 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 1: other folks in the White House, and of course you 364 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,000 Speaker 1: got the Hill. So right now, the message we're sending 365 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 1: in the world is we don't know where we're going 366 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 1: and we don't know how we're going to get there. 367 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 1: We talked about Secretary of State Rex taylorson how he 368 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 1: hasn't gotten anything close to a complement of advisories or 369 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 1: deputy secretaries of State at in foggy Bottom. Right now, 370 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: what is it about Secretary Maddis He seems to have 371 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: done a bit better. This is not an agency, the 372 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 1: Defense Department, that's as beset by worry, concern or scandal. Well, 373 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I think part of it as 374 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:07,400 Speaker 1: Mattison bablished relationship President. I think also the President has 375 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 1: seen that he gains from getting strong with regard to 376 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: the Pentagon. And I think there's some division within his 377 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 1: advisors and within the Republican Party about the you know, 378 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 1: merits of a lot of the programs in the State Department. Um, 379 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,159 Speaker 1: but there are a lot of senior level jobs in 380 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 1: the Pentagon that are still unfilled. So I wouldn't you know, 381 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 1: they've they've got their arms around that one yet either, David, 382 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 1: You're wonderful new book, The Great Questions of Tomorrow, folks. 383 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 1: It's short, short, beautiful, hyper focused. It's a great, abrupt 384 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 1: read on the changes. As I mentioned earlier, the rules 385 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 1: of the game and politics are changing. You say democracy 386 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: and government reimagined, and you say it is generally a 387 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: glacial embrace of modernity, the glaciers melting right now. Where 388 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: are we going to be in five years on the 389 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 1: establishment parties, whether it's France, the United Kingdom, or the 390 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,919 Speaker 1: United States, Well, I think there's a lot of changes 391 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: happening in the world, very big changes. Changes that involved 392 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: linking everybody together in a connected system, remaking the models 393 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,439 Speaker 1: of how we create a job, remaking economics, changing the 394 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 1: nature of monetary policy, changing the nature war, and changing 395 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 1: nature of peace. And the people who are most buying 396 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 1: the curves on this are the establishment, political leaders, institutions 397 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,400 Speaker 1: and so forth. And so I think we you've seen 398 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,640 Speaker 1: around the world is a backlash against institutions and the establishment, 399 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:37,199 Speaker 1: and also backlash against the perceived beneficiaries of this in 400 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 1: the elites. One of the most interesting things in the 401 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: past few months is look at all these elections that 402 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 1: have gone the way we didn't expect and if Doun 403 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,119 Speaker 1: Blow and Anchor they voted against air to one, but 404 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: the rest of the country voted for him. In Moscow 405 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 1: they vote against the rest of the country. Forum in 406 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: England they voted against Brexit, Mond and the rest of 407 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 1: the country. Forum in the US, the big cities against Trumps, 408 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,399 Speaker 1: the rest of the country for him. Right. You know, 409 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 1: I did a panel at the World Bank here a 410 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 1: few days ago with the ministers of Colombia, Indonesia, Turkey, 411 00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 1: in Ukraine. How alone are they? I mean, if President 412 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:17,399 Speaker 1: Trump says make America great in isolationism, reigns somewhat supreme, 413 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,119 Speaker 1: how alone are the rest of the countries? Well, I 414 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 1: think that's the really American kind of way of framing 415 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: the question. I know, but there's two there, two d 416 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 1: countries out there, and they don't think they're along with America. 417 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,399 Speaker 1: They think they're going to get along just fine. I 418 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,880 Speaker 1: travel around all the world, the world all the time, 419 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: and the rest of the world just like, well, it's 420 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:38,679 Speaker 1: Trump guy is a clown and he doesn't really know 421 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: what he's doing. We're a little worried on this issue 422 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: or that issue, but you know, we got to get 423 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 1: up to the morning, go to our jobs and build 424 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,680 Speaker 1: our countries. So if America takes a step back, other 425 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,719 Speaker 1: people step up. Whether it's been add guys in Russia, 426 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 1: or whether it's the government in China, or whether it's 427 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:57,399 Speaker 1: local governments, other people are filling the void. That's the 428 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: issue for the United States, not that the world's gonna 429 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: fall a part without us. It's going to keep moving on. 430 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 1: The book begins in some of New Jersey, young David 431 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 1: rothkop worried about nuclear winter, your dad working at Bell Labs. 432 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 1: You look ahead here to where we are now, and 433 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 1: you say, who are we is an even bigger question 434 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,159 Speaker 1: than who am I? You describe the situation we're in 435 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 1: as a cool war, not a cold war, but a 436 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 1: a cool war. Help us with that question? Who we are? 437 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: And do you think enough people are thinking in a 438 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 1: sort of collective way about the future. I don't. I 439 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 1: think we're at sort of the verge of one of 440 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 1: these once in five hundred year changes, because we're within 441 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 1: ten years and effectively everybody in the planet being connected 442 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 1: in the man made system for the first time, which 443 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 1: changes our view of identity and governance and money and 444 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,040 Speaker 1: more and peace and so forth, and we are focused 445 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 1: on momentary issues. We're focused on dysfunction in Washington, or 446 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: we're focused on terrorism, which is not an existential threat 447 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 1: and any means, and we're not taking the long term view. 448 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,720 Speaker 1: That's the problem for us because essentially it's going to 449 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 1: happen is we are going to react to massive changes 450 00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 1: after they happen, and that can be very disruptive. And 451 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 1: history shows that. You know, when the Reformation happened and 452 00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 1: people weren't prepared, the next result was the Thirty Years Ward, 453 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 1: which was the biggest war of the world I've ever seen. 454 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,479 Speaker 1: And I think what we need to do is we 455 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 1: need to say these changes are coming, we need to 456 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,639 Speaker 1: get ahead of them. We need to think about the 457 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 1: big picture issues and try to take a step away 458 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:22,439 Speaker 1: from the headlines every once in a while. David Rothcop 459 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,199 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us, as David Rothkop, the 460 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 1: author of the new book The Great Questions of Tomorrow, 461 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:40,679 Speaker 1: joining us on our phone lines. But this is a 462 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 1: really important conversation, folks, and it's not just about friends. 463 00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 1: George Friedman often writes about it and is associated with 464 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 1: the military and with the analysis of her forces, but 465 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,359 Speaker 1: he has a great political context as well. George Friedman 466 00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,080 Speaker 1: joining us. Now, George, you have a terrific essay, the 467 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:04,119 Speaker 1: collapse of the left, And I really was thinking about 468 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: that overnight. If I look at France, if the dominance 469 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,919 Speaker 1: of the socialists and what we know of Francois mit 470 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,639 Speaker 1: Iran and before that the development of the Fifth Republic, 471 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:17,560 Speaker 1: we'll forget about all that mumble jumble. It's worldwide, and 472 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 1: maybe it's the Democrats in the United States as well. 473 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 1: How does the left regroup? Well, the left regroups by 474 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,959 Speaker 1: going back to its roots. It was the party of 475 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,159 Speaker 1: the poor working class or the poorer working class. It 476 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 1: no longer is. It represents detectocrats who are in favor 477 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:42,119 Speaker 1: of the European Union. It has close ties to the 478 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 1: financial community and the right wing. In fact, it is 479 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 1: taken over that class, not only in France but in 480 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 1: the United States. For better or worse, it's Donald Trump 481 00:27:53,440 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: who speaks for the poorer white industrial class. I mean 482 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 1: it's fast. I mean, you're with geo political futures. What's 483 00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 1: the geo political futures of a last respectfully suspect of capitalism. 484 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,159 Speaker 1: But what we're really seeing here is the consequences of 485 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:20,560 Speaker 1: two thousand eight, two th eight, everybody looked at it 486 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 1: the banking crisis. It was also a crisis of the 487 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:29,160 Speaker 1: legitimacy of the banking elite. Were they criminals? Were they competent? 488 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,160 Speaker 1: Why did this think had happened? And then the spinoffs 489 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 1: of two thousand eight, particularly in Europe, the catastrophic outcome 490 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 1: in Southern Europe or unemploying the what over raise the 491 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 1: question whether the political elite cares at all about the 492 00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,400 Speaker 1: poorer people. So you wound up with uh, the poorer 493 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: class having no representation in people like the pen In 494 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 1: came Brexit. In came the whole question of the EU 495 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 1: legitimacy and amgration and and David, what's so important about this? 496 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 1: And I clearly remember this is nineteen fifty six and 497 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 1: Mr Friedman came from Hungary with his family and it 498 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 1: was the tumult of being And let me tell you 499 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: the suitcase. I remember the suitcases and the kids in 500 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 1: school who didn't speak a word of English. Was that you, George? 501 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 1: Were you one of the kids that didn't speak a 502 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 1: word of school A word of English? In my school? 503 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 1: I didn't speak a word of English till I was seven. Yeah, 504 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: let me just ask you about the importance of party 505 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,440 Speaker 1: going forward. Here. I'll ask you in the context of France. First, 506 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 1: we've seen the creation of these two or creation of 507 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: the growing of these two very new parties. Let's pull 508 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 1: back a little bit talk about it in the US 509 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,120 Speaker 1: as well. Do we have voters less interested and less 510 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 1: devoted to voting by party? Well, I think the real 511 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,200 Speaker 1: question is that the left and the right had become meaningless. 512 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 1: It's very hard to tell what Trump is. It's easier 513 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 1: to tell what the Democrats are. But from a practical 514 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 1: point of view, the old distinction just isn't working. The 515 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 1: parties almost shift. They will survive, but they won't look 516 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 1: anything like they are. The Republican Party doesn't look anything 517 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:12,000 Speaker 1: like the Party of Ronald Reagan today. And that's what's 518 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,960 Speaker 1: really important, which is that we're in a new period. 519 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 1: As I said before, the new period was initiative by 520 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 1: two thousand eight, and this is the new normal. It's 521 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 1: not going back to the way it was. There's been 522 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:24,840 Speaker 1: sort of a wink, wink and a nod, as we've 523 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,320 Speaker 1: heard from other candidates over these last twenty four hours, 524 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: many of them throwing their support behind Mr. McCrone. What 525 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 1: happens to the voteries in France who voted for Marine 526 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 1: Lepan if in fact she doesn't win in the second 527 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,479 Speaker 1: second round, who carries their grievances going forward? Is this 528 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,080 Speaker 1: a candidate. Is Mr mccrown a candidate who can welcome 529 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 1: them into his fold at all? Well? This is this 530 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,400 Speaker 1: is his problem in the same way as in the 531 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 1: United States, the loathing for the Trump supporters are enormous 532 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 1: and the Trump supporters loathing for the Democrat is enormous. 533 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 1: Same in France. You have a huge segment of the 534 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:07,720 Speaker 1: population that is deeply dissatisfied. But Kron could ignore them, 535 00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,800 Speaker 1: but it only makes them grow because they have real problems, 536 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 1: or he can shift his policies away from the position 537 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,960 Speaker 1: is taken elsewhere. We don't know that mccron is gonna win. 538 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 1: We have been wrong on every major election, from Brexit 539 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 1: to Trump as going in there, what is going on 540 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: is a complete upheaval and how the political system works, 541 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,440 Speaker 1: we have to be very careful. I mean, he may 542 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,800 Speaker 1: well win. We have to careful of two things. One 543 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,520 Speaker 1: whether he's going to be strong enough to simply ignore 544 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 1: the pen followers and two is he actually going to win. 545 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 1: We don't know how the voters are going to break 546 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 1: on this. We don't know they're going to follow their leaders. 547 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 1: So it's not out of the question that she's going 548 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:54,239 Speaker 1: to have another surprise upset. On that note, what does 549 00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 1: turnout tell you? Quickly? From from from yesterday's election, we 550 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:01,080 Speaker 1: had turnout seems pretty good. It seems like that portends 551 00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: the fact that he might do well next time around. Well, 552 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 1: what it really tells us is that France is unstable. 553 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 1: When there's a low political turnout, it's not because people 554 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 1: are alienated. Is because people are pretty content and whoever 555 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 1: wins wins, and I don't care. We saw a large 556 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 1: turnout because France has been highly politicized, because there's great 557 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 1: tension on all sides, and that is an explosive event. 558 00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:32,240 Speaker 1: High turnouts usually happen when people really care about George. 559 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 1: Let's wander away from France for a little bit. Maybe 560 00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 1: we'll wander back here in a few minutes, but let 561 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 1: me ask you about what's been going on in East Asia. 562 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:40,720 Speaker 1: The Vice President of the United States finishing up a 563 00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 1: ten day trip. This was like a Commonwealth tour of 564 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:44,840 Speaker 1: days of old. I mean, he's been gone for a 565 00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 1: while now, traveling with his family, visiting a number of 566 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 1: cities in East Asia, down in Australia as well. He's 567 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,960 Speaker 1: in Hawaii today, but he had a message about North 568 00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 1: Korea policy toward North Korea that he delivered in Seoul, 569 00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,600 Speaker 1: carried that on throughout the region. Do you have a 570 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 1: sense at this point of what the up administration's policy 571 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,880 Speaker 1: toward North Korea is? Well, I think it's the problem 572 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 1: with intelligence. No one is quite sure whether or not 573 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:12,240 Speaker 1: the North Koreans already acquired deliverable weapon, are close to 574 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 1: it or a bluffing if they've come close to delivering 575 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 1: having one. If they are close to if they actually 576 00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,600 Speaker 1: do have one, the United States is going to face 577 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:27,280 Speaker 1: a very serious pressure. Allies like Japan are going to 578 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 1: be in range. We assume that the North Koreans aren't crazy, 579 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 1: but we can't bet on it. We may have to 580 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 1: carry out air strikes right now that Trump has made 581 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 1: it very clear in a tweet if the if the 582 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:44,840 Speaker 1: Chinese helped him out, uh, he'll lighten up on trade issues. Now, 583 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 1: this is something that's always been done. This is the 584 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 1: first time we've seen a president actually admit he's doing it. 585 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,240 Speaker 1: So what's going on right now is a lot of 586 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 1: bargaining with the Chinese, and the question is whether the 587 00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 1: Chinese have control, and I think they do. Yeah. I 588 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,480 Speaker 1: mean he gets into this in great to tail and 589 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 1: an interview with that with the AP that was done 590 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 1: on Friday, I believe he really talks about the kind 591 00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,560 Speaker 1: of deal making he's intending to do with with the Chinese. 592 00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,879 Speaker 1: Do we have more economic options at our disposal? When 593 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,360 Speaker 1: you look in that tool kit of sanctions, is anything 594 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,759 Speaker 1: left in there? Well, I'll be very cynical. Uh. I 595 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 1: think every time the Chinese getting the problems with the 596 00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:25,959 Speaker 1: United States on trade, the North Koreans do something outrageous. 597 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: When they do something outrageous, the United States winds up 598 00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,920 Speaker 1: turning to Chinese looking for help. When that happens, the 599 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:35,800 Speaker 1: Chinese come back to the American say, hey, we just 600 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,680 Speaker 1: bailed here out in North Korea. Why are you complaining 601 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 1: about trade right now? So? I think the Chinese been 602 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:45,200 Speaker 1: playing his game with us for a while. Um, what 603 00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,600 Speaker 1: do you make of the relationship here? The President seems 604 00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,800 Speaker 1: to be developing with with the Chinese president. He spoke 605 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 1: with him by phone yesterday the White House, giving a 606 00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 1: short read out of that phone call saying, they continue 607 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 1: to have conversations about about the relationship. Are you optimistic 608 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,200 Speaker 1: that it's going to lead to uh saying continued dialogue 609 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 1: between these two countries. Well, we've always had dialogue. I'm 610 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,239 Speaker 1: not sure what we call saying, which is being very 611 00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: accommodating has always been very effective. I think one of 612 00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 1: Trump's advantages is he scares people, and in negotiating, scaring 613 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 1: people sometimes gets you what you need. So one of 614 00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,319 Speaker 1: the dangers of the Trump administration is he becomes like 615 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,120 Speaker 1: the Obama administration and a lot of these things. He 616 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:32,040 Speaker 1: was was a very reasonable guy. George, help me here 617 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:36,880 Speaker 1: with the Frankfort School, the Frankfort School of which you're associated, 618 00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,480 Speaker 1: and it's a very careful longer lord about now come on, 619 00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:44,279 Speaker 1: help me here with the fitting in of a political 620 00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:48,480 Speaker 1: theory and our new politics. Are any of the people 621 00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,799 Speaker 1: that we're talking about do they have anything to do 622 00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:57,320 Speaker 1: with modern capitalism or the questions of modern capitalism that 623 00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:02,200 Speaker 1: the Frankfort School brought up decades go? Or these guys Trump, 624 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:06,000 Speaker 1: these guys Prime Minister, May, these guys Angler Merkel, maybe 625 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,760 Speaker 1: she's a traditionalist in the group, or maybe the newly 626 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,120 Speaker 1: minted president of France, if we get it, Are any 627 00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,759 Speaker 1: of these people prepared for this linkage of capitalism with 628 00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:20,160 Speaker 1: the doubts about capitalism? Well, I was going way back 629 00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,359 Speaker 1: in my past. I wrote a book on this when 630 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,799 Speaker 1: I was a kid. Look, the new Left critique of 631 00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:31,879 Speaker 1: the capitalism was that it was successful but corrupt, that 632 00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:35,160 Speaker 1: you lived in tik attacking little houses, your soul was 633 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:39,840 Speaker 1: given over to making money and so on. We actually 634 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:44,320 Speaker 1: have a much more traditional problem going on, which is poverty. 635 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:50,279 Speaker 1: So they criticized the industrial working class for selling out 636 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 1: the problem. We have now had a little more to 637 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 1: do with the time before FDR came in, where the 638 00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:01,920 Speaker 1: industrial working class a huge swa industrial society around the 639 00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:06,640 Speaker 1: world have really lost their basis. Uh, if you're in 640 00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,319 Speaker 1: the low middle class where I grew up, you're now 641 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:13,040 Speaker 1: taking home perhaps two thousand, three thousand dollars a month. 642 00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,360 Speaker 1: You're not buying a house, You're not doing the basic 643 00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,120 Speaker 1: things the American dream is supposed to give you. So 644 00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:23,040 Speaker 1: I would argue that the new Left has been superseded 645 00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:28,240 Speaker 1: by an old reality class distinctions. This is a huge deal, David. 646 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,600 Speaker 1: I mean, it's way too deep for Monday morning. This 647 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:35,040 Speaker 1: is something you Mary, George when you come on. But 648 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,200 Speaker 1: I mean, folks, I just put out on Twitter magnet 649 00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:42,000 Speaker 1: desized classic Marxist Revenge, which addresses the Franford School and others. 650 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,400 Speaker 1: But I mean, look at the poet, David, what you 651 00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:49,120 Speaker 1: covered with Francine yesterday. It's almost a world and come on, 652 00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,439 Speaker 1: it is a world turned upside down. There's no way 653 00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,320 Speaker 1: to put an other way to put it. And George, 654 00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:56,279 Speaker 1: what's the what's the legacy of that? How does this 655 00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,799 Speaker 1: continue going forward? We we look ahead to the second 656 00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:00,319 Speaker 1: round in France, But what do you what are you 657 00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,680 Speaker 1: looking to next? What event to tell you about the 658 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,920 Speaker 1: direction we're going in? What we are now in a 659 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,439 Speaker 1: long process. The critical event is I said, was two 660 00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:12,680 Speaker 1: thousand eight. We're playing out the game. The Financial Times 661 00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,080 Speaker 1: continues to think that if the banking system is healthy, 662 00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:20,640 Speaker 1: high unemployment is not a problem. What you have here 663 00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:24,080 Speaker 1: is a large class of people who are now being 664 00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:28,400 Speaker 1: excluded from the political system, and they are coming back 665 00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 1: and pushing back. What we're going to see is more 666 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:36,960 Speaker 1: aggressive activity. If it turns out that McCrone and others, 667 00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,640 Speaker 1: uh ignore them, it's going to be uh. I mean, 668 00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:45,000 Speaker 1: you're gonna wind up with violence. This is a serious situation. 669 00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:48,520 Speaker 1: These people are hurting and the senses that the elite 670 00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,520 Speaker 1: doesn't care. Very quickly here, George Freeman is to circle 671 00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:53,880 Speaker 1: back to David Gurrows. First question, do you can the 672 00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,960 Speaker 1: depend people show up? Is the left does not vote 673 00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:02,360 Speaker 1: for Mr mccron. Well, I think what's going to it 674 00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,080 Speaker 1: happens the left is not going to vote for him 675 00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:09,920 Speaker 1: simply because he's you know, simply come on, he's a 676 00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:13,799 Speaker 1: Rothschild banker. He has nothing to do with a left right, 677 00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:16,640 Speaker 1: He has nothing to do with the left. He is 678 00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,759 Speaker 1: a completely committed to the EU. This is a campaign 679 00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:23,280 Speaker 1: between that group which feels that the EU has failed 680 00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,960 Speaker 1: and the capitalistm his failing, and that group that's saying, hey, 681 00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,560 Speaker 1: it's just fine, there's no problem, and they may still 682 00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:34,240 Speaker 1: have a majority in France. But I'm not certain that 683 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,040 Speaker 1: this election is going to wind up with him a president. 684 00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,000 Speaker 1: Church Freeman, thank you, never enough time. As always, Geopolitical 685 00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,399 Speaker 1: Fires John Tucker, There'll be a pop quiz at ten 686 00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:46,919 Speaker 1: oh five this morning on the Frankfurt School open book, 687 00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:53,480 Speaker 1: Mr Harbard Moss and the highly Ashley recommend desize book. Yeah, 688 00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:55,120 Speaker 1: this is a different book than the one you read. 689 00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:58,600 Speaker 1: Marxist Revenge is a Bible. It's absolutely fabulous. Anyways, George 690 00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:11,520 Speaker 1: Freeman this morning. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 691 00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:17,160 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 692 00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:21,600 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. 693 00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:26,040 Speaker 1: David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you 694 00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:40,520 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio, brought you 695 00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:44,239 Speaker 1: by Bank of America Mary Lynch, dedicated to bringing our 696 00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,840 Speaker 1: clients insights and solutions to meet the challenges of a 697 00:40:47,880 --> 00:40:52,760 Speaker 1: transforming world. That's the power of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce, 698 00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,719 Speaker 1: Feeder and Smith Incorporated Member s I p C.