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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Day BAQ podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 1: wherever you listen. It's Friday, the seventeenth of January here

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Speaker 1: in London.

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Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka.

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Speaker 3: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Israel says it

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Speaker 3: has finalized a ceasefire agreement with her Mass to pause

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Speaker 3: the war in Gaza and three dozens of hostages after

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Speaker 3: last minute doubts.

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Speaker 1: China's economic growth beats expectations to meet Beijing's target of

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Speaker 1: five percent after an eleventh hour stimulus blitz.

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Speaker 3: Plus, we speak to the Reform UK leader Nigel Farage

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Speaker 3: about Elon Musk, Donald Trump and his party's economic policies.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 3: Israel's Prime minister says his government has finalized an agreement

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Speaker 3: with her Mass to pause the war in Gaza in

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Speaker 3: a statement released this morning. Benjaminetta Nia who said his

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Speaker 3: security cabinet would meet later to approve the truth, suggesting

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Speaker 3: it would begin on Sunday. That's despite his office yesterday

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Speaker 3: accusing Hamas of reneging on some commitments. US Secretary of

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Speaker 3: State Anthony Blincoln is optimistic about the prospects for the future.

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Speaker 4: I am confident and I fully expect that implementation will begin.

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Speaker 4: As we said on Sunday, it's not exactly surprising that

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Speaker 4: in a negotiation that has been this challenging, in this fraud,

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Speaker 4: you may get.

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Speaker 5: A loose end.

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Speaker 6: Anthley Blincoln speaking there.

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Speaker 3: The ceasefire is backed by US President Joe Biden and

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Speaker 3: his successor, Donald Trump, and we'll see hamas release about

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Speaker 3: released thirty three of about ninety eight hostages still held

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Speaker 3: in Gaza in the first six week phase of the ceasefire.

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Speaker 3: In exchange, Israel will withdraw troops from populated areas of

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Speaker 3: the Palestinian territory and free around one thousand Palestinian prisoners.

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Speaker 1: Now, China's economy grew by five percent in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: beating estimates and hitting the government's target. The news comes

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Speaker 1: after a stimulus blitz and export boom that boosted activity.

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Speaker 1: Helen Chow, who is chief Greater China Economists that Bank

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Speaker 1: of America, says government intervention spurred the expansion.

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Speaker 7: There was some hope that actually after the policy package

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Speaker 7: was delivered on September twenty four, so there could be

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Speaker 7: some turn around in the data, so I think that's

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Speaker 7: you know, on the on the industrial side, which is

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Speaker 7: very much helped also by the front loaded export orders,

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Speaker 7: so that I think clearly helped.

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Speaker 1: Bank of America's Helen Chow speaking there, China has vowed

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Speaker 1: further monetary easing and stronger public spending this year as

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Speaker 1: the economy braces for Donald Trump's return to the White House.

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Speaker 1: The US President select has threatened tariffs of as high

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Speaker 1: as sixty percent on Chinese goods ahead.

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Speaker 6: Of Donald Trump's inauguration.

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Speaker 3: His closest UK ally says there are deals to be

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Speaker 3: done with the new administration. Reforming UK leader Nigel Farage

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Speaker 3: will be attending the ceremony on Monday. In an interview

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Speaker 3: with Bloomberg's UK Politics podcast, Farage says Elon Musk should

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Speaker 3: be kept away from economic policy.

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Speaker 8: Muscus for good in terms of open democratic argument when

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Speaker 8: it comes to power influence. I think the important thing

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Speaker 8: is he mustn't be seen himself to be dictating what

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Speaker 8: the Treasury Department do, and that is important and.

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Speaker 3: You can listen to that full interview with Nigel Faraj

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Speaker 3: on the Bloomberg UK Politics podcast. His Reform UK Party

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Speaker 3: is vying to replace the Conservatives as the main right

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Speaker 3: wing force in British politics, with a recent poll putting

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Speaker 3: their support just behind that of the governing Labor Party.

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Speaker 1: TikTok looks poised to win a reprieve from a US

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Speaker 1: ban under the law, it faces a shutdown on Monday,

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Speaker 1: but the incoming president has pledged not to close the

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Speaker 1: popular social media app. Bloomberg's James Wilcock hasmore.

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Speaker 9: What does the incoming US administration's China policy look like?

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Speaker 9: Trump has been characteristically hard to pin down, threatening TARIS

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Speaker 9: but also inviting President ge to his inauguration. TikTok is

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Speaker 9: said to be one of the first tests of the

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Speaker 9: government's instincts, and many are watching to see how they

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Speaker 9: hand economic and business ties with China that may include

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Speaker 9: Chinese intelligence, who Bloomberg have learned hacked Treasury Secretary Janet

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Speaker 9: Yellen's computer in their recent cyber attack in London.

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Speaker 6: James Wilcock Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg has learned that Rio Tento and Glencore in the

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Speaker 3: early stages of talks around a merger. If it were

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Speaker 3: to happen, the tie up would be the largest ever

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Speaker 3: mining deal, creating a rival to sector leader BHP. The

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Speaker 3: mining industry has seen a wave of deal making in

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Speaker 3: recent years, driven largely by big producers desire to expand

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Speaker 3: copper production. Representatives for both Rio Tento and Glencore have

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Speaker 3: declined to comment.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's nominee for US Treasury Secretary, Scott Biscent, is

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Speaker 1: set to be confirmed in the role following his hearing yesterday.

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Speaker 1: During the session, the veteran fund manager emphasized the importance

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Speaker 1: of tax cuts. He aligned himself with Donald Trump's economic goals.

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Speaker 10: This is the single most important economic issue of the day.

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Speaker 10: If we do not fix these tax cuts, if we

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Speaker 10: do not renew and extend, then we will be facing

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Speaker 10: an economic calamity.

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Speaker 1: Scott Percent the testifying before the US Senate. It's unclear

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Speaker 1: when the Republican controlled Senate will vote on his nomination,

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Speaker 1: despite suggesting that they will oppose other cabinet picks when

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Speaker 1: present at ELECTROMP, no Democratic member stated specific objections to

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Speaker 1: Percent taking the Treasury job yesterday.

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Speaker 6: Those are your top stories on the markets.

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Speaker 3: We saw equity markets on Wall Street stalling yesterday, the

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Speaker 3: rally SMP five hundred falling by zero point two percent.

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Speaker 3: Losses in Tech had the Nasdaq slipping by point seven percent.

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Speaker 3: Treasuries rose after the Fence Waller said he wouldn't rule

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Speaker 3: out an interest rate cut in March if inflation data

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Speaker 3: continues to be favorable. The ten year Treasury had falling

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Speaker 3: four basis points yesterday, holding steady today at four point

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Speaker 3: six one percent. Guilt yields and trading yesterday continue to decline.

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Speaker 3: The thirty year guiltield is rally anti basis points in

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Speaker 3: the past two days. Today, on the currency markets, the

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is a tenth of one percent stronger.

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Speaker 3: The pound is trading at one twenty two fourteen, down

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Speaker 3: two tenths of one percent. Chinese stock's given a small

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Speaker 3: boost by the better than expected GDP data. The CSI

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Speaker 3: three hundred is six tenths of one percent higher.

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Speaker 1: Now, those are the markets. In a moment, we are

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Speaker 1: going to bring you more on the ceasefire agreement in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, plus what we learned about the Chinese

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Speaker 1: economy from the data that was out this morning.

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Speaker 6: A little bit later on, we've got a big interview

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Speaker 6: coming up for you as well. Carolyn.

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Speaker 3: You've been speaking to the Reform UK leader at Nigel Farage.

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Speaker 1: Yes, we've got to spend some time with him. Came

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Speaker 1: into the Bloomberg studio yesterday. It's taken thirty years for

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Speaker 1: Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform UK Party, to

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Speaker 1: be elected to parliament. The party is riding high in

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Speaker 1: the polls and that I think has been a really

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Speaker 1: big surprise in the UK and a point behind the

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Speaker 1: ruling Labor Party. So we wanted to discuss with Nigel

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Speaker 1: Farage the economic plans reform UK and we've got to

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Speaker 1: spend thirty minutes with him, questioning him about that and

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Speaker 1: obviously his.

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Speaker 2: Ties to the US.

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Speaker 1: I thought it was fascinating that after the row with

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Speaker 1: Elon Musk, Farage is perhaps a bit more cautious. He

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Speaker 1: still calls him a hero, but he says that Elon

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Speaker 1: Musk should not be seen to be dictating what the

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Speaker 1: Treasury Department does in the US.

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Speaker 2: You had the clip of that earlier.

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Speaker 1: Faraj on the UK policy, says that there are sector

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Speaker 1: deals to be had with America. He talks about Trump

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Speaker 1: being the most instinctively pro British president that we've seen

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Speaker 1: for decades. We can negotiate our own trade deals. I

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Speaker 1: think that's really interesting. And then we went on to

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Speaker 1: talk in depth about the manifesto and the proposals here

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Speaker 1: in the UK.

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Speaker 3: These are things that perhaps we haven't heard niger fans

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Speaker 3: talk about in such detail before, particularly what comes to

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Speaker 3: their economic policies and how much they might cost.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and we know lots about his close relationship with

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, and so that's why we wanted how does

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Speaker 1: that translate actually into benefits for the UK On the

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Speaker 1: manifestesto that was published obviously before the election last year,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't call it a manifesto, it's caused it a contract.

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Speaker 1: He promises tax cuts would be paid for by spending cuts.

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Speaker 1: Thomas is an extra one and a half percent in

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Speaker 1: UK growth per Annam. We were looking at the manifesto numbers.

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Speaker 1: They aren't really very detailed and they don't add up particularly.

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Speaker 1: So I questioned him a lot about how his policies

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Speaker 1: would really be different from Liz trus or from the

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Speaker 1: austerity policies that we saw throughout the twenty tens. Really

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Speaker 1: he doesn't have an answer for that, and he did

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Speaker 1: admit that actually would be very painful for voters. I

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Speaker 1: absolutely accept that big initial cost on day one, so

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Speaker 1: I thought that was a key line. He's also I

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Speaker 1: think softening his stance on immigration reform. UK's immigration stance

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Speaker 1: is shifting. In the manifesto talks about freezing immigration. He

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Speaker 1: now says he's actually just pro control. We are not

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Speaker 1: putting up the barriers entirely. We're in favor of high

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Speaker 1: skilled immigration, especially for the city of London. He stresses

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Speaker 1: that reform UK is non sectarian, non racist. You also

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Speaker 1: talked about Ai coming to a place a lot of jobs,

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Speaker 1: so he had lots and lots of things to say

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Speaker 1: to us.

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Speaker 3: And we'll bring you some of that conversation in just

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Speaker 3: a short few minutes. But let's go first to the

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Speaker 3: Middle East for more on our top story this morning,

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Speaker 3: Israel's Prime minister says a ceasefire deal has now been

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Speaker 3: finalized after it appeared at risk of collapsing yesterday. Dana

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Speaker 3: Crazy leads our breaking news team in the Middle East,

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Speaker 3: joins us now for more than a good morning yesterday morning,

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Speaker 3: BENI minutes now who had accused him mass of reneging

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Speaker 3: on parts of the ceasefire, Those issues appear to have

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Speaker 3: been resolved now.

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Speaker 11: What happened morning, so after a day when the ceasefire

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Speaker 11: deal was at risk of collapse, with natania Who saying

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Speaker 11: that Hamas was going back on some of these commitments.

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Speaker 11: Hours ago, we saw Natanielho coming out with a statement

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Speaker 11: to say that the deal has been finalized and suggesting

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Speaker 11: it's still on track to start on Sunday. So some

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Speaker 11: reports said that there was some opposition from Hamas on

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Speaker 11: about Israel's presence along the Egypt border, but Hamask came

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Speaker 11: out to say that it was still committed to that.

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Speaker 11: But let's face it, for Nataniello, this isn't a popular

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Speaker 11: deal and maybe you know that twenty four hour was

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Speaker 11: perhaps to have more talks or negotiations with this coalition party.

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Speaker 11: He's also facing opposition internally. We saw been Gevier saying

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Speaker 11: yesterday he will be quitting the coalition if the cease

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Speaker 11: fire is approved. Another minister, also a far right minister,

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Speaker 11: was saying, you know, he would agree only to the

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Speaker 11: first phase and want to see the resumption of the

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Speaker 11: war after that pause. But even if members withdraw, I

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Speaker 11: think natanie How is still natanie.

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Speaker 2: How's standing is still okay.

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Speaker 11: He would have less of a majority that he had

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Speaker 11: in parliament with his coalition, but you know it's still

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Speaker 11: a majority.

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Speaker 1: Though, so what is expected then to happen on Sunday

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Speaker 1: with the agreement in place.

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Speaker 2: If it does, all you know go through.

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Speaker 11: Right, So the Security Cabinet should be meeting today to

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Speaker 11: approve likely the the c's fire agramment. So on Sunday

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Speaker 11: what we would be seeing is guns, right, guns going silent,

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Speaker 11: and exchange of hostages and prisoners should take place. Thirty

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Speaker 11: three out of the ninety eight hostages Israeli hous are

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Speaker 11: still held in Gaza will be exchanged for the release

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Speaker 11: of some a thousand Palatinine prisoners. This should be a

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Speaker 11: respite for of course some of the families of the

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Speaker 11: hostages and you know, some Palestinians living in Gaza. But

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Speaker 11: there are still Israeli is held in Gaza, and Palestines

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Speaker 11: are pretty much going back to absolute rubble. So it's

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Speaker 11: still a bleak picture even after with this pause, and

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Speaker 11: of course the second phase of that ceasefire is still

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Speaker 11: you know, uncertain. We don't know whether they would that

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Speaker 11: would actually lead to a permanent pass to the fighting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, indeed, that's certainly the ambition of the United States

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Speaker 3: and the administration that negotiated this deal as well. When

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Speaker 3: we get to Sunday down of what are the next

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Speaker 3: steps that we should be watching for as to where

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Speaker 3: progress towards a potential second phase would go.

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Speaker 11: Well, this is this is going to be the difficult part,

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Speaker 11: and that's what everyone is looking at, is that whether

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Speaker 11: this will be a permanent past to the fighting, because

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Speaker 11: the hope is that it will be and we'll see

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Speaker 11: Donald Trump taking office. It comes a day before Donald

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Speaker 11: Trump takes office on Monday, and it seems that his priority,

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Speaker 11: his top priority, is for that cease fire to be permanent,

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Speaker 11: to integrate Israel, Israel better into the region by forging

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Speaker 11: this normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, and this seems to

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Speaker 11: be the top priority for the Trump administration in this

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Speaker 11: region in the Middle East, and of course to pressure

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Speaker 11: or you know, high pressure on around even more so,

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Speaker 11: what we would be looking out for is whether this

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Speaker 11: would pave the way for a permanent cease fire, how

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Speaker 11: Israel will be integrated better in this region with a

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Speaker 11: normalization deal with Saudiarrib if that happens, and of course

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Speaker 11: reconstruction effort in Gaza, and the big question of who

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Speaker 11: would govern Gaza after this, is it going to be

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Speaker 11: Hamas or a joint probably government between the Passien authority

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Speaker 11: under Abbas and Hamas together and that's still something Israel

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Speaker 11: Is against. So there are so many questions and still

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Speaker 11: a lot of uncertainty even after this ceasefire takes effect.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Dona, thank you so much for being with us

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Speaker 1: this morning. Dona Craze leads our breaking news team in

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Speaker 1: the Middle East, just taking us to what's expected to

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Speaker 1: happen with this CEASFA deal potentially in place.

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Speaker 3: China's economy hit the government's growth target last year after

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Speaker 3: an eleventh our stimulus blitz and an export boom turbo

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Speaker 3: charged activity. The outlook though to siddenly more uncertain. Let's

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Speaker 3: bring in our senior China economics reporter, James Mager, who's

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Speaker 3: in Beijing for us.

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Speaker 6: James, good to have you on.

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Speaker 3: How much of this economic performance that we learned about

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Speaker 3: in this latest figures was down two starter steps.

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Speaker 12: I think substantial amount of what we saw in the

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Speaker 12: fourth quarter is due to the stimulus that the government

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Speaker 12: started rolling out, you know, in late September, and the

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Speaker 12: rest is probably due to, you know, the massive export

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Speaker 12: boom we saw all of last year, which picked up

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Speaker 12: even further in the fourth quarter, as well as companies

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Speaker 12: in the US and other places tried to get as

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Speaker 12: much goods out of China as they could before you know,

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Speaker 12: Donald Trump returns to the White House and puts tariffs

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Speaker 12: on them. So but yeah, the rebound we saw in

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Speaker 12: housing prices, for example, and there's flight increase we saw

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Speaker 12: in housing sales in November and December, I think you

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Speaker 12: can you can definitely say that that's the court that's

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Speaker 12: that's due to both of the deregulation of housing purchase

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Speaker 12: controls in many cities across China and also the Central

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Speaker 12: Bank cutting rates and make it cheaper for people to

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Speaker 12: borrow and to buy a house. So yeah, there has

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Speaker 12: definitely been there has been a result or a sort

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Speaker 12: of that stimulus that they did in the fourth quarter

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Speaker 12: has had some success. But as you say, there's still

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Speaker 12: a lot of challenges that the the economy is facing now,

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Speaker 12: and I think especially you know, obviously they reach their

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Speaker 12: growth target for five percent for real growth, but when

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Speaker 12: you look at nominal growth and you strip out or

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Speaker 12: you ignore the effects of inflation, the economy is still

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Speaker 12: in deflation. Prices fell for a second year in a row.

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Speaker 12: You know, we're looking at prices falling again this year

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Speaker 12: to be a third year of deflation, and company profits

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Speaker 12: are falling, household incomes are falling. You know, all of

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Speaker 12: these things are going in the wrong direction. And I

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Speaker 12: think especially if you're add in tariffs on top of

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Speaker 12: that sort of which will damage the export growth driver,

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Speaker 12: that's really not putting China in a good position for

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Speaker 12: twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, So then what about the specific sect is also

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Speaker 1: that we've watched so closely, you know, in recent years

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Speaker 1: the property industry.

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Speaker 2: Is there a sign of revival there?

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Speaker 1: If the overall picture is so difficult as you describe it, James.

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Speaker 12: There is some signs of revival in some places in China.

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Speaker 12: If you look at the housing market in Bejing for example,

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Speaker 12: or the bigger cities, there has definitely been a pickup

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Speaker 12: in sales, and that is due to you know, basically

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Speaker 12: all of the big cities, especially got rid of all

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Speaker 12: their purchase curves. So previously, if you wanted to buy

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Speaker 12: a second home or a third home, you know, it

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Speaker 12: was you had to put much to put a bigger

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Speaker 12: deposit down you the interest rate was higher, and all

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Speaker 12: these kinds of things, and those have all basically been

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Speaker 12: got rid of to encourage more people to buy more homes,

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Speaker 12: and so that is having an effect, especially in those

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Speaker 12: bigger cities. But if you look at the construction side

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Speaker 12: of the economy, which is where the actual economic impact

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Speaker 12: of the housing market is going to be, yeah, we

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Speaker 12: didn't see much of a turnaround. Housing starts fell for

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Speaker 12: a fifth year last year, was down twenty something percent

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Speaker 12: last year. That's on top of a double digit fall

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Speaker 12: in twenty twenty three, which is on top of you

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Speaker 12: know falls, and so it's been I think housing starts

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Speaker 12: about a third of their peak in twenty twenty. It

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Speaker 12: was either twenty nineteen or twenty twenty. And so unless

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Speaker 12: you see a turnaround that kind of construction activity, that's

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Speaker 12: not going to flow through to demand for steel and

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Speaker 12: all the other things that going to building apartment buildings. So, yes,

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Speaker 12: there is some early signs of a bit of a

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Speaker 12: turnaround or sort of a pickup, but that's still really

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Speaker 12: just at the sales side, on the consumption side. You know,

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Speaker 12: where we really need to see a turnaround or a

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Speaker 12: change is on the is on the construction and demand side,

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Speaker 12: and we're not really seeing that yet.

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Speaker 3: How much of a risk do trade tariff's thunder Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump pose to the Chinese economy in twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 3: where told that a president she is not going to

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Speaker 3: attend the inauguration, despite reports that he had been invited.

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Speaker 3: Would have been unusual for him to go anyway, But

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Speaker 3: he's not going. We've been told, yeah, I mean he

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Speaker 3: was never going to go. And Hanjong, the vice president,

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Speaker 3: is going. He intended to say the coronation of the

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Speaker 3: Japanese emperor a few years ago, and so sort of

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Speaker 3: so there was one she Shun his predecessor went to

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Speaker 3: the enthrone of the Japanese Emperor a few years ago.

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Speaker 3: But you know, a vice president going, I think is

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Speaker 3: probably the highest level representation in China would have had

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Speaker 3: at this at this kind of event. But you know,

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Speaker 3: I think tariffs do represent a real threat to China.

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Speaker 3: Direct exports to the US last year are fifteen percent

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Speaker 3: of all Chinese exports.

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Speaker 6: If you count the.

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Speaker 12: Exports that are going to places like Vietnam and being

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Speaker 12: assembled in their goods like AirPods and then being exported

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Speaker 12: to the US, it's probably closer to twenty percent, which

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Speaker 12: is the level it was at before the trade war.

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Speaker 12: You're in twenty seventeen twenty eighteen, and so we have

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Speaker 12: seen a bit of a shift to Chinese trade, but

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Speaker 12: China is very still very dependent on the US as

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Speaker 12: a source of final demand. So if tariffs are raised

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Speaker 12: from they're already reasonably high levels on Chinese goods going

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Speaker 12: to America, and especially if America then tries to stop

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Speaker 12: Chinese companies investing Indonesia, investing in Vietnam to make goods

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Speaker 12: there to then export them to America, I think that's

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Speaker 12: going to be very damaging to that source of final

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Speaker 12: demand for China. And then the other problem is if

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Speaker 12: American import demand goes down and Chinese domestic demand doesn't

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Speaker 12: pick up to fill that hole, then the goods that

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Speaker 12: Chinese company they're producing will be exported elsewhere. And if

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Speaker 12: they're exported elsewhere and prices go down because demand is weak,

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Speaker 12: then other compantries are going to be looking at that

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Speaker 12: and say, hey, we don't want this flood of is

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Speaker 12: even bigger flood of Chinese, cheap Chinese goods coming on shore.

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Speaker 12: We don't want this Chinese steel, We don't want these

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Speaker 12: Chinese products that compete with their own companies, And so

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Speaker 12: they might start to raise tarifts You're already seeing some

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Speaker 12: of that on steel and your EV's famously in the

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Speaker 12: in the EU and Turkey and other places. But if

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Speaker 12: that expands to a lot of other goods, not only

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Speaker 12: is the US market sort of much more difficult for

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Speaker 12: Chinese companies, but then you know Australia or South America

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Speaker 12: or Southeast Asia or Europe, those markets all become much

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Speaker 12: harder to access and China loses that demand as well.

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Speaker 12: So you know, there's a real risk to China both

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Speaker 12: from the tariffs in America directly, but then the spillover

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Speaker 12: effects then that might have around the rest of the world.

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Speaker 12: And so I think, you know, last especially last year

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Speaker 12: at the end of last year, the government stimulus, the

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Speaker 12: extra spend in the extra bond sales we saw from

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Speaker 12: the government.

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Speaker 5: Was the real driver of that pickup.

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Speaker 12: And twenty twenty five, maybe we have to see even

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Speaker 12: more of that to fill in the hole that's going

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Speaker 12: to come from the export demand weakening.

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Speaker 3: Okay, James meger Our, Senior China Economics reporter, thank you very.

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Speaker 1: Much now to our key interview this morning. It's taken

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Speaker 1: thirty years for Nigel Farage to become elected to parliament.

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Speaker 2: Here in the UK.

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Speaker 1: His Reform UK party is riding high in the polls,

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Speaker 1: a point behind the ruling Labor Party. But do Pharage

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Speaker 1: and Reform UK's economic plans add up. The Reform UK

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Speaker 1: leader has been speaking to me alongside Bloomberg's finance reporter.

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Speaker 1: Will Sure also began by asking him about how Britain

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Speaker 1: will be engaging with the new US president and the

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Speaker 1: incoming Trump administration.

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Speaker 8: It isn't just Trump that I've known for a long

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Speaker 8: time and get on very well, which you know, which

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Speaker 8: I do. Half his cabinet, I know, some of them

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Speaker 8: are good friends. You know this whole movement. You know,

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Speaker 8: there are people I work with for a long long time.

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Speaker 8: So if there's anything I can do, for example.

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Speaker 1: Well so, so you must know Lord Mandelsson very well.

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Speaker 1: He's a veteran politician. So what do you think of

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Speaker 1: his appointment?

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Speaker 8: And Manson and I were in Brussels at the same time, yes,

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Speaker 8: you know, when he was a commissioner. That look, Madilson

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Speaker 8: is bright and clever, wily possibly too. Nobody can ever

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Speaker 8: doubt that Mandlsson is not a good operator. I mean

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Speaker 8: he was part of the genius behind you know, new

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Speaker 8: Labor and the rebranding of the party. All I would

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Speaker 8: say is this that if you really want to get

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Speaker 8: on with the Trump administration, you need somebody who is

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Speaker 8: an entrepreneur. You need somebody who's a businessman or businesswoman.

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Speaker 8: You need somebody who thinks outside the box. And kind

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Speaker 8: of what we're doing is we're going down the traditional

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Speaker 8: Foreign Office governmental route of appointing somebody from within our

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Speaker 8: governing circles. And I think we could do better. I mean,

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Speaker 8: you're obviously odds with the Labor government. Yes, are you

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Speaker 8: going to work together with Peter Mandelsson? And will you

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Speaker 8: brief against him and the labor government Donald Trump? If

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Speaker 8: you differ on I will get back to the original question.

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Speaker 8: I've said privately and publicly to senior labor figures that

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Speaker 8: if they need help with the relationship, particularly in terms

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Speaker 8: of negotiating tariffs or maybe sexual free trade agreements, which

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Speaker 8: I do believe are possible with the Trump regime, I

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Speaker 8: of course would help because that is in the national interest.

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Speaker 8: And I have to say, sitting here this morning with you,

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Speaker 8: how relieved I am that the Chagos Island a surrender

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Speaker 8: of sovereignty as I see it isn't going through before

440
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 8: the inauguration. I think if that had happened, we would

441
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 8: be in a very very bad place. So we've got

442
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,280
Speaker 8: a bit of a reprieve. And remember that Trump is

443
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 8: the most instinctively pro British president we've seen for decades,

444
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 8: and we ought to use that to our advantage.

445
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: How does that really translate though, in terms of how

446
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 1: hard Trump is going to be on taris globally and especially.

447
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 2: In the UK.

448
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 8: I can tell you that in twenty sixteen and pass

449
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 8: the inauguration into the early part of twenty seven team,

450
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 8: the team around Trump were really anxious to get a

451
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 8: trade deal with the UK and to do it as

452
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:08,640
Speaker 8: quickly as possible.

453
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 5: Why.

454
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 8: They wanted to show that they're not protectionists. They believe

455
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 8: in fair competition, but not as they see an unfair

456
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 8: competition with China and other countries that undercut them on wages,

457
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 8: on environmental standards and everything else. So of course we

458
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 8: couldn't do it because we were still part of the

459
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 8: European Union. But now we're freed, we're not part of

460
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 8: the EU's Common Commercial Policy. We can negotiate our own

461
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 8: trade deals. These are the prizes that are on offer.

462
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 8: But you know, if the Prime Minister wants to have

463
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 8: a reset with the European Union and get closer to

464
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 8: the failing economically European Union.

465
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 5: It's going to be very difficult.

466
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:52,919
Speaker 13: If we turn to Elon Musk. So I thought you right.

467
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 13: Joe Biden was speaking overnight.

468
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 14: He warns Americans of a dangerous concentration of power in

469
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 14: the hands of a very few ultra wealthy people that

470
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 14: he feared could have an impact on the country's democracy

471
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 14: through your friendship with Elon Musk, Is there a risk

472
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 14: of you introducing a similar threat into the UK in

473
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 14: terms of like the interests of one very very rich

474
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:22,479
Speaker 14: tac billionaire and his concerns taking a priority over the

475
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 14: concerns of regular voters, and you know, the potential of

476
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 14: someone being seen to try and buy an election in

477
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 14: the UK.

478
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:33,640
Speaker 8: Well, first things first, I think Biden's record on defending

479
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 8: the American constitution, on the way that he used the

480
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 8: judicial system that doesn't bear much scrutiny. I think things

481
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 8: went backwards during Biden's time, and we concentrated so much

482
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 8: power in Biden's hands that he gave Afghanistan back to

483
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 8: a Taliban. So you know, we can throw this stuff

484
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 8: back and forth. In America. You know, billionaires have more

485
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 8: influence over society than mid do in Britain as culturally,

486
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 8: there's no question about that. Musk is a very powerful figure,

487
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 8: but that there's no doubt.

488
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 5: But I also think he's a hero.

489
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 8: I mean, if you think back to a last election

490
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 8: in twenty twenty in America where the Hunter Biden laptop

491
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 8: was there, the evidence was clear of criminality.

492
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 5: For which he's now been convicted of one or two things.

493
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 8: The evidence was all sorts of things were there that

494
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 8: deserved to be in the public domain, especially his father's

495
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 8: close relationship and telephone calls.

496
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 13: With various That's a separate issue, isn't. No, it isn't

497
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 13: at all.

498
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 8: And I tell you why all the social media channels

499
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 8: forbade any conversation about that subject. The Americans had an

500
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 8: election with no debate on this issue. Musk has come

501
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 8: along and bought Twitter, albeit for quite a high price,

502
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 8: and free speech is coming back to America and the

503
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 8: Western world. You've even seen Meta in this week. I'm

504
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 8: an extraordinary u turn that has been made. So Musk

505
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 8: is a force for good in terms of open democratic argument.

506
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 8: When it comes to power influence, I think the important thing.

507
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 8: The important thing is he mustn't be seen himself to

508
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 8: be dictating what the Treasury Department do, and that is important.

509
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: We talk, you talk a lot about your closer relationship

510
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 1: with the US and how important that relationship is. Our

511
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 1: closest trading partner is still the EU.

512
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 5: Only in your mind.

513
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 8: I mean, you know, our biggest, our biggest country relationship

514
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 8: is not trading. No, well, Germany is a country still,

515
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 8: isn't it.

516
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 2: There you are as a whole.

517
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 8: Who's the biggest foreign investor in Britain?

518
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 1: I talked, also talked about the rise of parties with

519
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: similar views, of anti migration parties across Europe.

520
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,719
Speaker 5: That does so, who's if I'm an anti migration party?

521
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 2: Well, you did yourself.

522
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 5: I didn't.

523
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 8: I said the opposite. I said, we're pro. You asked

524
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 8: me about high skill, high skilled people, and I said

525
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 8: that if they come into Britain and bring high skills,

526
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 8: pay taxes and integrate, I've got no problem. You know,

527
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 8: our brand of politics, my brand of politics is different

528
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 8: to many of the other European pastes.

529
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:00,040
Speaker 5: All right, that's when we.

530
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 8: Clear about that. There are similarities, there are crossover points,

531
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,239
Speaker 8: but there are differences. But let me just come back

532
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 8: to Europe very quickly, in the economics and the statistic

533
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 8: that I think everybody following this podcast needs to just

534
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 8: get embedded in their minds.

535
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 5: I think it's crucial.

536
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 8: In two thousand and eight, the American economy was exactly

537
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:21,120
Speaker 8: the same size as the Eurozone. Today, it's double the size,

538
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 8: double the size. And that's what you get if you

539
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 8: have economic policy based on idealistic but unrealistic net zero goals,

540
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:37,360
Speaker 8: over regulation, welfare ism as being a really good alternative

541
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 8: to go into work, and that's what you've got a

542
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 8: failing Europe. One of the reasons I wanted Brexit was

543
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 8: to give us an opportunity to get away from that

544
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 8: failing model. I'm not saying we have to be identical

545
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 8: to America, but I think in terms of business culture,

546
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 8: as a heck of a lot we can learn.

547
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

548
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,160
Speaker 3: stories making news from London to Wall Street and br.

549
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,560
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550
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 1: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

551
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 3: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio.

552
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 3: The Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg dot Com.

553
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,000
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554
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

555
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 6: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carol.

556
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 3: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

557
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 3: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak

558
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 3: Europe