1 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you happy? Monday? 2 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of the Deli Jucee Podcast with 3 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 2: me Matt perraulta at Sports Talk. Matt to follow me 4 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 2: across all socials. This podcast always being brought to you 5 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 2: by our good friends at Omaha Steaks dot com slash Juice. 6 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 2: If you guys are going there, get a subscription that 7 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 2: gives you free burgers for life and ten percent off 8 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:37,400 Speaker 2: your first purchase at Omaha Steaks dot Com slash Juice, 9 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 2: and that one percent money back guarantee comes along with it. Okay, 10 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 2: not a good day. Yesterday, losing day, losing week, bumber. 11 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 2: We were up going into the day fifteen and one 12 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 2: straight up. Favorites went fifteen and one. The only loser 13 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 2: Baylor was I on Baylor. Yep, I was on Baylor. 14 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 2: The dogs in the NCAA tournament are getting absolutely destroyed. 15 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 2: I mean it's straight up more than Ats, but ats 16 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,479 Speaker 2: are getting destroyed as well, blowouts all over the place. 17 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 2: I hate it when I make projections and predictions that 18 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 2: are correct, but I don't follow my own advice. Now, 19 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 2: I said this is going to be a very chalky 20 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 2: and to doublea tournament, I said, I thought our futures 21 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 2: were going to be very alive because of that. Ones 22 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 2: in two seeds making deep runs, Arizona, North Carolina one two, 23 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 2: Iowa State two, Creighton A three, Tennessee A two. 24 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: I mean we didn't take long shots. Marquette is a two. 25 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 2: I mean these are all chalky plays, but I bet the. 26 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 1: Future on them. But I didn't. I haven't been betting individually. 27 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 2: Like Yukon should have been a play today, Purdue should 28 00:01:58,040 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 2: have been a play today. 29 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I just I look at the board. 30 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: I'm like, there's no way I'm laying eleven, twelve, thirteen, 31 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 2: fourteen points. But they're covering these numbers. It's remarkable. 32 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 1: I mean, A and M gave us scare to Houston, 33 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 1: but it would have been great if Houston lost that game, 34 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: perfect for Marquette would have set it up beautifully for 35 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: Marquette to make a run. That's stunk. I was pulling hard. 36 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 2: It was like, come on, Marquette, but you know, look, 37 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 2: we've got some decisions to make here coming up. And 38 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 2: on Friday night, the last game of the Sweet sixteen 39 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 2: is Tennessee Creighton. Futures on both I want the Jays 40 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 2: to win. I want that thirty to one to stay alive, obviously, 41 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 2: but you know what do we do with that? Marquette 42 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 2: Arizona in North Carolina appear to be on a collision 43 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 2: course for not playing with it. I think they play Thursday? 44 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 2: Would they both play Thursday and then they play on Saturday? 45 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: Like, what do we do with that? 46 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 2: So I'm just gonna tell you right now, I'm gonna 47 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 2: be betting every day, but I'm not gonna be betting 48 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 2: heavy every day. Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna give you 49 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 2: a couple of plays every day, and we're going to 50 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 2: head towards those futures because I need to hit one 51 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 2: of those to make up for what we've done here 52 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 2: in the tournament. 53 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: It is. I mean, I was great all year, and. 54 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 2: The conference tournament and the NXAA tournament have not been 55 00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 2: my friend. 56 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 1: I'm not alone here. 57 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 2: There are some people who are very sharp and better 58 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 2: gamblers than me, who have made money, who done very well. 59 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 2: But I've been betting in game more than anything, trying 60 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 2: to get myself out of plays and bets because I 61 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 2: was like, oh no, like you know, I bet the 62 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 2: over in that game Infloming, Alabama and Grand Canyon whoops. 63 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 2: I got that real quick, a bit under one sixty. 64 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 2: That game came no clue and I'm close to going 65 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 2: over one sixty. Could tell right in the beginning. I 66 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 2: was like, okay, that's in trouble. So I bet on 67 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,119 Speaker 2: that game came way under, so I was headged. 68 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 1: Out of that. 69 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 2: The hockey play this morning. The Avalanche win. But the 70 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 2: Avalanche win in overtime, came back down four two. I 71 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 2: bet them plus things was looked like plus one ten 72 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 2: or something that I bet them when they were down. 73 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 2: They won the game. So I was able to get 74 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 2: you know, my lot there. But this podcast is not 75 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 2: an in game podcast. This podcast is an overnight podcast. 76 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 2: So you know, not not great, but you know it 77 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 2: didn't wasn't a horrible week. This was a losing week. 78 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 2: So it's been a losing month. It was a losing February. 79 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 2: It was winning January, losing February. It's been a losing March. 80 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: I don't think I have time to make up for it. 81 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 2: But hopefully in April we hit a couple of futures, 82 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 2: or one of the big futures we hit, and we 83 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 2: make up for the college basketball season and we finish 84 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 2: up we can still be profitable in the college basketball season, 85 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,359 Speaker 2: depending on how we play out the next couple of rounds. 86 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 2: I got to do a lot of research about how 87 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 2: to play it. When to hedge, how much to hedge, 88 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 2: you know, Tennessee and create and create kind of a problem. 89 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 2: I'm not going to hedge on Marquette NC State. I 90 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 2: think Marquette wins that game. 91 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 1: NC State. 92 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 2: It's hot, but I think Marquette wins that game. So, 93 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 2: you know, I think we've got to do too much 94 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 2: with that game. North Carolina. 95 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: I think they're going to beat Alabama, So I'm not 96 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:57,919 Speaker 1: sure we need to do much with that game. You know, 97 00:04:58,000 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: you start going through it. 98 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 2: You know, like, okay, Sweet sixteen hedges, I probably won't 99 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 2: hedge much. 100 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: Elite eight hedges different story. 101 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, we're guaranteed a team in the 102 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 2: Elite eight from from Creighton and Tennessee, so we're guaranteed there. 103 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 2: You see how the brackets playing out, you know what 104 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 2: I mean, Like, we have six futures that are all alive. 105 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 2: We have six future tickets, all right, well five official. 106 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 2: I have six five official tickets that are live. I've 107 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 2: never forgetting I did to make Iowa state official. That's 108 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 2: my bat on that. But you know I got five 109 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:33,919 Speaker 2: tickets available, so five teams of the sixteen we have 110 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 2: future tickets on. So how many survive to the next 111 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 2: round it's going to be a big question, right how 112 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 2: many get to the elite eight? Well, we know Yukon, 113 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 2: so we know Tennessee and Creighton will knock off one 114 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 2: of them. So there's one that's gone and so one 115 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 2: of the two. You know, we want the Jays to 116 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 2: stay alive. But we don't have to do much with 117 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 2: that game, like I said, So we'll talk about it 118 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 2: as we go. We'll kind of get through it as 119 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 2: we head into the basketball season, into too the weekend. 120 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 2: I know you guys are anxious and nervous about how 121 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 2: are we going to play this? 122 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:03,479 Speaker 1: What are we going to do? 123 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 2: Matt, how are we going to hedge on this? And 124 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 2: you know we're going to be profitable. Okay, I'm very 125 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 2: confident that we're going to be profitable. We just have 126 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 2: to be smart about it and figure out which sides 127 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 2: to be on plus money, how many units to put down, 128 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 2: that type of stuff. So again, if you don't have 129 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 2: the bankroll to do this, and I'm not saying you 130 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,239 Speaker 2: have to, okay, but if you came along for the ride, 131 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 2: maybe you just let it ride and you don't play 132 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 2: the hedge. Okay, that's my advice, because it's gonna get 133 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 2: ugly until we get to the final and it's two 134 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 2: weeks away from the final. 135 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: Okay, we're two weeks away from the final. Just keep 136 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 1: that in mind. 137 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 2: Okay, So next weekend, sixteen and eight games round to 138 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 2: sixteen run and eight games. The hedges we could be 139 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 2: you know, if a thirty to one hedge, we may 140 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 2: hedge ten units on that, right, I don't know how many. 141 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 2: I mean, just to see and then maybe the Jays 142 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 2: would win. If they win the game, then they're in 143 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 2: the final four. In the final four, how many units 144 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 2: we hedge there? I don't know, five. Then they get 145 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 2: to the championship game. Okay, we're sitting on a fifteen 146 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 2: to one ticket now, so our fourteen to one ticket 147 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 2: we hedged a unit. But like you know what I mean, 148 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 2: Like I got to figure out how we're gonna play 149 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 2: this out, but like we will have opportunities to at 150 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 2: least be flat. Okay, we're not gonna lose money on 151 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 2: these hedges, but We've got too much. We've had too 152 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 2: much value in the market for us to lose. We 153 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 2: bought it too early for us to lose money on it. 154 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 2: So I know a bunch of you in the Discald 155 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 2: channel you have constant questions. We will go through that 156 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 2: each day each week as we head towards and frankly, 157 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 2: the Sweet sixteen games are really hard. Okay, this is 158 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 2: a really hard round to bet. And I had a 159 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 2: bad first weekend, so I don't know how aggressive I'm 160 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 2: gonna be with the tournament in terms of the futures 161 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 2: we have. 162 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 1: It. 163 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 2: May just let them ride and just say, Okay, we're 164 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 2: done betting these individual games. We've got the future tickets. 165 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 2: Let's just see what happens. It's very possible Thursday and 166 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 2: Friday you won't see much action out of me on 167 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 2: the tournament games. Just FYI. Okay, so what are we 168 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 2: gonna play today? Well, you guys have asked for it. 169 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 2: You guys have been asking me for baseball futures. Now, 170 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 2: look at I'm not going to bet anyone to win 171 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 2: the World Series, win divisions, all that stuff until basically 172 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 2: the fourth of July. I wait, however, we must bet 173 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 2: win totals before, and I had two bets in hockey. 174 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 2: We took the Boston Bruins over ninety eight and a 175 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 2: half points and the Tampa Bay Lightning under ninety six 176 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 2: and a half points. Boston's already there. We got that, okay, 177 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 2: So Bruins will cash that ticket for us. The other side, 178 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 2: the under ninety six and a half win total for 179 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. 180 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 1: That's tracking towards. 181 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 2: We're gonna cash that, so hopefully we'll get that in 182 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 2: so that will be another two units, so we'll stack 183 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,199 Speaker 2: there from that. So I'm gonna give you two baseball 184 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 2: bets from a future perspective. 185 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 1: Okay. 186 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 2: The last two years I have bet the over on 187 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 2: the Florida Marlins. Now shop DraftKings has this at seventy 188 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 2: eight and a half FanDuel is seventy seven and half. 189 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 2: Some books are at seventy six. The market high that 190 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 2: I found last night was seventy eight and a half 191 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 2: at DraftKings. We're gonna bet the under I've bet over 192 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 2: the last two years. I've cashed it once last year, 193 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 2: missed it the year prior last year the Florida Marlins. 194 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 2: If you were with us, you remember the number of 195 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 2: one run games that the Marlins won. It was unbelievable. 196 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 2: They had a negative fifty seven run differential, yet they 197 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 2: were in the top half of Major League Baseball for wins. 198 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 2: They just won a ton of games three to two. 199 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 2: They averaged about four runs a game. They're still projected 200 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:47,719 Speaker 2: next year to have about four to four and a 201 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 2: half runs per game. They're projected to have a negative 202 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 2: run differential again according to fangrafts. They're in a division 203 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 2: that is not going to give them any breaks. 204 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 1: All right, they're with the Braves. 205 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 2: We know anytime you're playing the Braves, you're gonna have 206 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 2: a difficult task, a different difficult time. 207 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: I know. 208 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 2: They don't play their divisions as much as in previous years, 209 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 2: so that's led to a lot of people going like, wait, now, 210 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 2: these win totals are different because they play different you know, 211 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 2: schedules and what they're used to. They don't play eighteen 212 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 2: nineteen games against their own division. But the Marlins are 213 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 2: gonna be I mean, the Phillies are gonna be really good, 214 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 2: The Braves are gonna be really good. The Nationals aren't 215 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 2: going to be good, the Mets are gonna be whatever. 216 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,560 Speaker 2: I mean, the Mets are always just whatever. But I 217 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 2: just can't see this Miami Marlins team getting more breaks 218 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 2: given the fact they haven't. 219 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: They didn't do very much. Look, Lozardo was great, but 220 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: they've had so many injuries to their pitching. 221 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 2: Perez, we love Uri Perez. He was awesome for us practicing. 222 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:55,439 Speaker 2: Garrett was great pitching last year. But they won eighty 223 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 2: four games last year. They blew through that seventy eight 224 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 2: and a half projection last year, just over it. I 225 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 2: can't see it doing again. They haven't done a ton. 226 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 2: They're banking on the kids to be good and say, 227 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 2: you know what, we're not gonna spend a lot of money. 228 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 2: We're gonna look at our minor league players. And I 229 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 2: think there's just a lot of regression here. They just 230 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 2: won so many one run games last year that I 231 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 2: think we have to go back and say, you know what, 232 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 2: they're not going to win the same number of one 233 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 2: run games again. If you remember last year, the Miami 234 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 2: Marlins were thirty three in fourteen in one run games 235 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,359 Speaker 2: last year, that's basically the handicap. 236 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: Thirty three and fourteen. 237 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 2: Last year, thirty three wins was the most in Major 238 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 2: League base Sorry second most. The Reds won thirty four 239 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 2: one run games. They're another team you could look to 240 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 2: do it. But the Reds won were thirty four and 241 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 2: twenty nine in one run games, thirty three and fourteen 242 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:56,959 Speaker 2: the Miami Marlins. That doesn't happen again. Sorry, under seventy 243 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 2: eight and a half wins for the Miami Marlins. 244 00:11:59,440 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 1: Official. 245 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 2: I'm going to say bet one unit, one point one units, 246 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 2: but I always bet more on futures. It's kind of 247 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 2: whatever you want, okay. I tend to bet five, like 248 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 2: that's kind of my number to bet on futures. It's 249 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 2: five units, but that's just me. I mean, your money's 250 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 2: set up for a long time, so when it comes 251 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 2: down to cash the ticket, you want to make some 252 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 2: money on it, right. You want to feel like it 253 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 2: was worth your time. But I don't want to know. 254 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 2: I never recommend more than one unit play, Okay, I 255 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 2: just don't do it officially because I want you guys 256 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 2: to be conservative. I want you guys to be you know, 257 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,440 Speaker 2: there is a big controversy going on right now about 258 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,959 Speaker 2: a joke that was said by Rhys Davis on ESPN. 259 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,439 Speaker 2: The tweet I put out on it yesterday at Sports 260 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 2: Talk Matt has been my most viewed tweet ever. I 261 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 2: came on Twitter in two thousand and seven. It's now 262 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. At last check, it had eight hundred 263 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 2: thousand impressions, four hundred retweets, five thousand likes. Like it 264 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 2: was an insane day on my Twitter account for that 265 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 2: one tweet that went mass of viral talking about that 266 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 2: joke as he called it in Rhys Davis, talking about 267 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:08,959 Speaker 2: the fact it was a risk free investment to bet 268 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 2: the plays that were being discussed. Look, I take a 269 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 2: lot of pride in that I try to keep you 270 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 2: guys conservative. I take a lot of pride in telling 271 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 2: you that this is a difficult venture, that losing happens, 272 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 2: that winning is an awesome thing, but most of us 273 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:28,079 Speaker 2: aren't going to win. 274 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 1: Most of us are going to struggle. 275 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 2: Most of us are going to get together in a 276 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 2: community on our discord channel and talk about picks and 277 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 2: plays and enjoy the hell out of it, knowing that 278 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 2: this is entertainment. Okay, I've been pretty clear about what 279 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 2: this podcast is all about. I bet every single day. 280 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,320 Speaker 2: I'm telling you right now, I am not a professional gambler. Okay, 281 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 2: what I tell you I went three and one, three 282 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 2: in one, then oho in three. 283 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: That sucks. 284 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 2: That's gambling. Now if you do the math, that's six 285 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 2: and five over three days. So technically it's profitable if 286 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 2: you bet everything. But that's not how this works, right. 287 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 2: I bet more, way more than that. I have way 288 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 2: more in game plays and different bets and things I make. 289 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 2: It's not the only plays I make because, as we know, 290 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 2: if you're gonna gamble, you're gonna be gambling consistently because 291 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 2: you got to go and get out of those bets 292 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 2: that are bad. You got to take advantage of plays 293 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 2: that are in front of you. You know, overtime, Houston, 294 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 2: Texas A and m right. You know, it's a little juicy, 295 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 2: but jumping on Houston saying I think Houston is gonna 296 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 2: win the game. Bet on Houston, right, So that's the 297 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 2: way that you got to fire on these things. And yes, 298 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,480 Speaker 2: you can lose quick, but you got to be stay 299 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 2: within your means, is what I'm saying. 300 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 1: Okay, so bet whatever you want. In the future. 301 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 2: Officially, it's one point one units mins one ten under 302 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 2: seventy seventy eight and a half wins for the Marlins 303 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 2: second future, just like hockey one over one under. This 304 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 2: is an over. The Chicago Cubs hired Craig Council. Now, 305 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 2: the Cubs won a two games last year, sorry, eighty 306 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 2: three games last year when eighty three and seventy nine. 307 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 2: Fandel has this number at eighty three and a half 308 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 2: for the Chicago Cubs this year, I think the Cubs 309 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 2: have a chance to be pretty decent. 310 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: Let's call them decent. Okay. The Cubs are playing in 311 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: a bad division. Let's be frank. Okay. 312 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 2: The Brewers last year won the division with ninety two wins. 313 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 2: They're not going to win ninety two games this year. 314 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 2: Lost pitching, lost talent, lost their manager. Cubs won eighty 315 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 2: three win eighty three and seventy nine. The Cubs in 316 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 2: one run games were under five hundred twenty one in 317 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 2: twenty four. There were three and six in extra inning 318 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 2: games as well. Now, Craig Council doesn't play. Okay, so 319 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 2: to say, Matt, does it really matter? How much does 320 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 2: a manager matter? I think it manager matters a lot 321 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 2: in baseball. And I also think that if the team 322 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 2: invests heavily in the manager, they're not going to ask 323 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 2: the guy to go into a knife fight or a 324 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 2: gunfight with a knife. Okay, and right now the Cubs 325 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 2: need more offense. I think the Cubs are going to 326 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 2: add more offense. I would expect the Cubs if they 327 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 2: are in striking distance or in first place by the 328 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 2: middle of the summer, that they will be the market. 329 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 2: They will be in the market for a big time deal. 330 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 2: They need a bat, they need some more pop in 331 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 2: this lineup, and I think they're going to do it. 332 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 2: I don't know what the future for the Cubs long 333 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 2: term is going to be. I just know in one 334 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 2: year you can often see a team flip pretty fast 335 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 2: and a new voice, new management, new intensity, and the 336 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 2: team comes up and wins eighty five, eighty six, eighty 337 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 2: seven games. 338 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 1: I'm going to Wrigley Field. 339 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 2: For the Friday night, April the sixth, the game against 340 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 2: the Dodgers. So maybe I'm a little bit selfish on 341 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 2: this because I want to watch this team do well. 342 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 2: But the Cubs and the Red Sox have always been 343 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 2: kind of kindred spirits for obvious reasons. The Red Sox 344 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 2: are going to be just a dumpster fire and a half. 345 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 2: I mean, they're going to be playing kids. But the 346 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 2: Cubs might actually win the division. Someone's going to win 347 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: the division. And I think going in and you know, 348 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 2: keeping Cody Bellinger, putting him on this lineup, you know, 349 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 2: getting him back on the lineup, and I think is 350 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,159 Speaker 2: going to be an opportunity for them to have some 351 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 2: more pop, you know, swamps Damn Dansby, Swampsby Swampson on 352 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 2: this team. Look, pitching wise, we'll see what the Cubs 353 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,679 Speaker 2: look like. Okay, it's going to be some questions obviously 354 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 2: about what they'll do with their starting rotation. How good 355 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 2: are they going to be. There's a lot of questions. Okay, 356 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 2: there's a lot of questions for the whole division. Though 357 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 2: it's not just you know, the Cubs with questions. There's 358 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 2: questions everywhere for this team. You know, who is going 359 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 2: to want to take the ball? Justin Steel last year 360 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 2: was great. We bet him a lot last year. Who 361 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 2: was sixteen and five with a three point zero six 362 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 2: e er, you know, the year like that at of 363 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 2: Justin Steele. Okay, if you get another year of that 364 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 2: Adjustin Steele, I think we could be doing pretty well. 365 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: And whenever you know you're betting. 366 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 2: Futures and win totals, it's always looking at you know 367 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 2: the five gate, you know the five star, and who's 368 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 2: pitching in the second third, you know in that in 369 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,919 Speaker 2: that realm, you know who's your third, fourth, and fifth starter. 370 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 2: Cubs are okay in that spot, not great, but they 371 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 2: do play in a ballpark that can be really friendly, 372 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 2: and they open up on the road against the Texas Rangers. 373 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:21,120 Speaker 2: Then they play Colorado at home home opener on April 374 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 2: the first, which is crazy in Chicago. But then Friday night, 375 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 2: April fifth, sorry, April fifth, the Dodgers have already announced it. 376 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 1: That's Yamamoto pitching, so that's interesting. 377 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,639 Speaker 2: So it could be that would be great if I 378 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,439 Speaker 2: get a chance to watch the Dodgers play on Friday, 379 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 2: April fifth, with Yemamoto on the mound. And let's pray 380 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 2: that showy Atani is not suspended, because I'm going to 381 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 2: watch show. Hey Dodger Day game on Friday afternoon, so 382 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:47,919 Speaker 2: I land at like ten o'clock, I'm going straight to Wrigley, 383 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 2: So it's gonna be fun for Friday. So maybe it's selfish, 384 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 2: maybe not. But Fandel eighty three and a half wins, 385 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 2: I think the Cubs win the division. You can bet 386 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 2: that too, if you want Cubs who win the division 387 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:58,719 Speaker 2: if if you want to, I think they're gonna win 388 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 2: the Central. But I'll bet over eighty three and a 389 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 2: half in case the Brewers have something to say about that, 390 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 2: over eighty three and a half of the Cardinals too. 391 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 2: Mamby two over eighty three and a half wins for Chicago, 392 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:11,640 Speaker 2: all right, two baseball win futures. 393 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: We did two in hockey. 394 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 2: I'm doing two in baseball under seventy eight and a 395 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 2: half for the Miami Marlins over eighty three and a 396 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 2: half for the Chicago Cubs, DraftKings, and Fandol respectively. For 397 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 2: those futures, you want to go and try to find 398 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,199 Speaker 2: those win to you find better numbers, great and go 399 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 2: with Fanatics or Caesars or whatever. You find a better 400 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 2: win total than what I got there, that's awesome. One 401 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 2: bet going for tonight in the NBA. I don't There's 402 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,719 Speaker 2: only two games in hockey, and I don't know what 403 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 2: to make of it. I think the over for the 404 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,159 Speaker 2: Golden Knights game is probably a decent bet, but I 405 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 2: don't really love the hockey schedule for tomorrow, I mean Mondays. 406 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 2: With such a light schedule for the NHL, I never 407 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 2: really understand what. But Vegas at Saint Louis and the 408 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 2: Kings at Vancouver, I think it's. 409 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 1: An over and under. 410 00:19:55,240 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 2: Maybe first game over, second game under, but yeah, we'll see. 411 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 2: Really it's five and a half at six and a half, 412 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 2: so kind of leaning those ways. Connects at home or 413 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 2: an under team, Blues at home can be an overteam. 414 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: So two games in hockey, none none that really jump 415 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:10,840 Speaker 1: out at me. 416 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 2: But if you want a hockey play, I think over 417 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 2: Vegas Saint Louis under Kings Vancouver wouldn't be a horrible play. 418 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 2: Let's talk about Brooklyn at Toronto. However, Look, I'm gonna 419 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,199 Speaker 2: keep on betting these unders. This is just kind of 420 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 2: how I've bet in the NBA. You find these totals, 421 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 2: they're coming down. It's two fifteen and a half. It 422 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 2: opened at two seventeen for Brooklyn and Toronto. And you 423 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 2: might go, well, why, Well, it's pretty obvious why. Brooklyn 424 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,360 Speaker 2: has been just an under machine on the road nineteen 425 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 2: sixteen and one to the under at on the road. 426 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 2: But Toronto is twenty three and twelve to the under. 427 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,359 Speaker 2: Six straight games under for Toronto, seven of their last 428 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 2: ten to the under for Toronto. I mean they are 429 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 2: just an under machine themselves. Two thirty two against Washington 430 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 2: under by eleven, two thirty against Oklahoma City, went under 431 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,959 Speaker 2: by four, two thirty four in Sacramento and under by 432 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 2: twenty two. Two nineteen against Orlando, under by twelve to 433 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 2: eighteen and a half against Orlando under by two and 434 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,880 Speaker 2: a half, two thirty three against Detroit under by sixteen. 435 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 2: The last time a game at home went over was 436 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 2: on the third of March against New Orleans. It was 437 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 2: two thirty and a half and went over by six 438 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,239 Speaker 2: and a half because they gave up one hundred and 439 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 2: thirty nine points in that game. Not because Toronto scored anything. 440 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 2: It's because they couldn't stop at anything that night, and 441 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 2: that's embarrassing. Thirty nine to New Orleans, so under two 442 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 2: fifteen and a half Brooklyn and Toronto for one point 443 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 2: one units. That's the only play going here for today 444 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 2: on a Monday, no college basketball or taking a break 445 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 2: for a couple of days. Lick our wounds a little 446 00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 2: bit and head off into the big weekend for Thursday 447 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,880 Speaker 2: and Friday for the Sweet sixteen. 448 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: And the Elite eight over the weekend 449 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 2: Mais Matt Parolt to follow me across all socials at 450 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt every morning Dale Jus Podcast asked, I 451 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 2: was being brought to you by Omar SIGs dot com