1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,120 Speaker 1: We now go to a special fireside chat with the 2 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Peggy Collins that came out 3 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:10,319 Speaker 1: this morning third quarter GDP showing a robust four point 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: nine percent growth rate a pace in the third quarter. 5 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: When you look at those figures, do you think we've 6 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: likely avoided a recession or do you think it's too 7 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: good to be true because inflation is still so high. 8 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 2: Well, it's a good, strong number, and it shows an 9 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 2: economy that's doing very well. Let's remember it is just 10 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: one quarter's number, and I'm not expecting a growth at 11 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:42,240 Speaker 2: that pace to continue. But we do have good, solid growth. 12 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 2: You know, probably the year will come in close to 13 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 2: two and a half. I wouldn't be surprised if we 14 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 2: see that we have solid job creation, a low unemployment rate, 15 00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 2: increased engagement in the labor force. Labor force participation is strong, 16 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 2: more people want to work, and inflation's coming down, and 17 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 2: you don't really see any sign of recession here. I 18 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 2: have to say I've been saying for a long time 19 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 2: that I believed there was a path to bring inflation 20 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 2: down in the context of a strong labor market. Frankly, 21 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 2: it's only it's about a year ago, since I believe 22 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: a Bloomberg model predicted that by October of twenty twenty three. Now, 23 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 2: namely that you saw at the odds of recession at 24 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: one hundred percent, I don't think we have that. You know, 25 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 2: what we have looks like is soft landing with very 26 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 2: good outcomes for the US economy. So I think there's 27 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 2: a lot to be pleased about. And you see good 28 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 2: strong consumer spending. Consumers still have substantial wealth, it's a 29 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: substantial since the pandemic. 30 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 3: I think it's supporting. 31 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 2: Good strong spending and the economy is doing well, and 32 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 2: I think US growth is making a contribution to stronger 33 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 2: global outcomes as well. 34 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: So you just pointed to a number of things that 35 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: are positive about the US economy. But we've done a 36 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: lot of reporting in recent months that here at Bloomberg, 37 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 1: who sent reporters out all across the country, and what 38 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: we're hearing from people on the ground is that when 39 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 1: you ask them about their personal finances, they feel pretty 40 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 1: good for a lot of the reasons you just mentioned, 41 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 1: the labor market, their ability as consumers to spend. But 42 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 1: when you ask about the direction of the US economy, 43 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 1: the sentiment is much more downbeat. So what can you 44 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: do to close the gap on the positive side in 45 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 1: terms of how people feel about the US economy, especially 46 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: as we head into an election year. 47 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 2: So I think Americans have been through a lot with 48 00:02:55,120 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 2: the pandemic and the lockdown for almost two years, period 49 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 2: of high inflation, and. 50 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 3: As you say, they do seem to. 51 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 2: Feel good about their own personal finances. Surveys of job 52 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 2: satisfaction suggests people feel good about their work too. We've 53 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 2: rarely seen higher numbers on job satisfaction, but they seem 54 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 2: very worried about the economy and that things are not 55 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 2: doing well. You know, the US economy has suffered from 56 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 2: structural problems from a very long time. For a very 57 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 2: long time, a significant share of the population, particularly those 58 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 2: who haven't had a college education, who have really not 59 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 2: seen meaningful growth in their real income and have seen 60 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 2: a decline in job opportunities over really approaching fifty years. 61 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 2: And I think what America need to know is that 62 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 2: the Biden Harris administration is really decisively changing that we 63 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 2: are investing in America. We have passed three a trifecta 64 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 2: of legislation that people will increasingly see who've been suffering 65 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 2: from a shortage of job opportunities. I think they're really 66 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 2: going to see things change. First of all, we're spending 67 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 2: an enormous amount to repair America's infrastructure, and increasingly people 68 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 2: are going to see their roads that they get hung 69 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 2: up on every day. It's hard to commute with potholes everywhere. 70 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 2: It's going to be fixed, Bridges are going to be improved, 71 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 2: airports people are going to Within the next several years, 72 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 2: virtually every American will have access to good, good internet, 73 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 2: so improving digital economy. And we've seen an enormous set 74 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 2: of investments announced in response, largely to the Chips and 75 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:21,840 Speaker 2: Semiconductors Act and to the Inflation Reduction Act in clean energy, 76 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 2: and jobs are being created. What we see in this 77 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: past year is that a disproportionate share of the jobs 78 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 2: that are being created are in communities that have had 79 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 2: less economic opportunity, communities with below average incomes and with 80 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 2: a blow average share of people who have a college education. 81 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 2: So this means that opportunity will increasingly come to people 82 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 2: who really haven't in a sense, gotten a fair shake 83 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 2: over the last fifty years as they've seen jobs disappear. 84 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 2: And you know, President Biden and Vice President Harris, and 85 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 2: I really believe that you ought to have access to 86 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,720 Speaker 2: a good job, even if you don't have a college education. 87 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 3: And increasingly I think. 88 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 2: People will see that good opportunities are being created. Certainly, 89 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 2: the President is trying to go out and explain to 90 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 2: people what this longer term, medium term agenda. He would say, 91 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 2: it's a matter of growing the economy from the bottom up, 92 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 2: in the middle out. What we've had is too much 93 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 2: of trying to grow the economy to trickle down, from 94 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,799 Speaker 2: going with gains, going to the top with a hope 95 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 2: that it will trickle down. 96 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 3: And I think we're beginning to. 97 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 2: See the fruits of these investments begin beginning to pay off. 98 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 2: So I think Americans have a lot to look forward 99 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 2: to and beginning to see this in their daily lives. 100 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: So we were just talking about americans perception of the economy. 101 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: But another thing we follow closely here at Bloomberg globally 102 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: is investors perception of the economy. So I want to 103 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 1: ask you a little bit about the rise in yields 104 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: that we've seen. We've seen yield surging over the last 105 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: few weeks. The ten year treasury rose above five percent 106 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 1: earlier this week. What's your view on what is driving 107 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: that surgeon yields and how much of it is connected 108 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: to investors' concerns about the US deficit. 109 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 2: Well, I don't think much of it is connected to that. 110 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 2: This is a global phenomenon in advanced countries. We're seeing 111 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 2: yields go up in most advanced countries of the world, 112 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 2: and largely I think it's a reflection of the resilience 113 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 2: that people are seeing in the US economy. That we're 114 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 2: not having a recession, that consumer spending and demand continue 115 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 2: to be strong, The economy is con continuing to show 116 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 2: tremendous robustness, and that suggests that interest rates are likely 117 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: to stay higher for longer, and so part of the 118 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 2: increase in yields I think is simply a reflection of 119 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 2: the strength of the economy, the notion that interest rates 120 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 2: will be higher for longer. Now, whether or not that's 121 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 2: really true if we look at five or ten years, 122 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 2: what are interest rates likely to do? Honestly, for a 123 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 2: very long time, we've felt that interest rates over decades 124 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,679 Speaker 2: had been coming down real interest rates, and that there 125 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 2: were deep structural reasons for that, in part relating to 126 00:08:55,760 --> 00:09:00,559 Speaker 2: demographics and those underlying trends. They're still there, they're still 127 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 2: in force. So I think it's perfectly possible that we 128 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 2: will see longer term yields come down, but nobody really 129 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 2: knows for sure. But I see the higher yields as 130 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 2: certainly importantly a reflection of a stronger economy. 131 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: So when you think about the deficit, I think one 132 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: of your preferred metrics for assessing US fiscal stability is 133 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: to look at the net interest outlay as adjusted relation. 134 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: And right now, I think you've said that those levels 135 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: seem good to you, but there are. 136 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 2: In real terms. It's about one percent a little bit 137 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 2: under that. 138 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: So that's helpful in terms of kind of the next 139 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: figure I was going to mention is several economists out 140 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 1: there are forecasting that that figure by twenty thirty could 141 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 1: be well north of two percent. So at that level, 142 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,319 Speaker 1: would you be alarmed In terms of the sustained fiscal sustainability. 143 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:57,719 Speaker 2: Let me just say fiscal sustainability is really critical, and 144 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 2: President Biden is admitted to putting forward a fiscal plan 145 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 2: that shows fiscal sustainability. And uncertainty about interest rates. Interest 146 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 2: rates do influence what the path of that real net 147 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 2: interest is going to be there's a bigger challenge if 148 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 2: the interest rate path stays higher. President Biden has already 149 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 2: supported deficit reduction measures in the Pact, raising the debt 150 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 2: ceiling and other legislation. In the Inflation Reduction Act, there's 151 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 2: a trillion dollars of deficit reduction, and he proposed a 152 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 2: budget that both invests in America, continues to do that, 153 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 2: and also has revenue raising measures that would result in 154 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 2: another two and a half million dollars of deficit reduction 155 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 2: over the next decade. So, yes, we have to put 156 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 2: forward fiscal plans that will keep the deficit manageable and 157 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 2: keep this real net interest cost. You know, I would 158 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 2: say well below two percent. So the higher the interest 159 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,439 Speaker 2: rate path, the more that we need to do. 160 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 1: I want to take a moment, a Secretary and turn 161 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: to the global outlook. With the Israel Hamas war happening 162 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 1: in the Middle East, I think there's a concern by 163 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: some that the war could spread or expand to broader 164 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: in the region. I know that that's not your base case, 165 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 1: but if that was to happen, could you walk us 166 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 1: through your wrist scenario for what that might mean to 167 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 1: the global economy? 168 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 2: So I guess I have to say my focus is 169 00:11:56,080 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 2: I look now at what's happening to the Middle East. 170 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 2: Really is the tragedy, the human tragedy that's taking place 171 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 2: with the Israelis have suffered, and of course we're worried 172 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 2: about casualties in Gaza as Israel, you know, pursues its 173 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 2: war against Tomas, and so it's really the human suffering 174 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 2: that I think should be our focus in countering terrorism. 175 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:37,079 Speaker 2: We're monitoring the economic consequences carefully. I so far, I 176 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 2: would say we've not yet seen much that has global consequences. 177 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 2: Oil prices are largely flat. What could happen if the 178 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 2: war expands? Of course there could be more meaningful consequences, 179 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 2: but I think it's premature to speculate against about those, 180 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 2: and I think our focus should be keeping this contained 181 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 2: and not spreading so on Hamas. 182 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: I know the Treasury Department has taken further moves in 183 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:18,079 Speaker 1: the last few weeks to restrict financing to Hamas, and 184 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 1: your under Secretary, Brian Nelson is actually in the Middle 185 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 1: East right now. Do you think there's room for further 186 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 1: restricting or limiting financing to Hamas, And if so, can 187 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: you tell us what might be some of the next steps. 188 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 2: So I can't comment on any specifics concerning sanctions we 189 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 2: have not yet put in place, but what I can 190 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:46,679 Speaker 2: say is we have taken a large number of steps 191 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:51,679 Speaker 2: just over the last year to put in place sanctions 192 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:58,359 Speaker 2: to try to reduce the avenues for financing of Hamas, 193 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 2: and in the after math of this attack last week, 194 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 2: we put additional sanctions in place. My Undersecretary, as you mentioned, 195 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 2: will be in the Middle East, and Deputy Secretary Ademo 196 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 2: is leaving tonight for a trip to Europe to also 197 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 2: discuss working with our allies on sanctions, and we are 198 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 2: certainly looking at further opportunities we see to try to 199 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 2: reduce this flow of financing to Himas where all over 200 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 2: this and are likely to do more. 201 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 1: So one final question on the Middle East before we 202 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: turn to other topics on Iran, can you help us 203 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: understand are the six billion dollars in Iranian oil proceed 204 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: assets blocked by the US Treasury from access by Iran 205 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 1: right now as they sit in a Katari account. 206 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 2: I guess all I can only tell you is that 207 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 2: not a penny of that money has been touched the 208 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 2: Trump administration agreed to allow Iran to sell oil, and 209 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 2: the sales were largely to Korea, and the proceeds were 210 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 2: held in a Korean bank account and only permitted to 211 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 2: be used for humanitarian purposes, without any direct funding ever 212 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 2: going to Iran, and those proceeds were moved from Koreer to. 213 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 3: Kitar. They still sit there. 214 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 2: They can only be used for humanitarian purposes. 215 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 3: They have not been used. 216 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 2: And I don't feel comfortable saying more about diplomatic conversations 217 00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 2: that are taking place, but Iran has not touched those phones. 218 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 1: We just as mentioned diplomacy, and so much of your 219 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: role as secretary has been actually traveling around the world. 220 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 1: We often think of the Treasury Department as so domestic, 221 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: but so much of what you've done is international, and 222 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: you're seen as a liberal economist. 223 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 3: Supportive of free trade. 224 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: I wondered your thoughts on how concerned are you that 225 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 1: some of the Biden policies may be sealing a mistrust 226 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: of globalization that was ramped up in the Trump administration, 227 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: and whether that's actually good for the US economy. 228 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 3: Well, I think that's a great question. 229 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 2: I've talked about it concept I call friendsuring, So I 230 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 2: think it's a consequence partly of the pandemic and partly 231 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 2: Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We've come to the realization that 232 00:16:54,880 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 2: our supply chains, America's supply chains are not secure, and 233 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 2: in some cases we are overly dependent on countries like China, 234 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 2: and what we need to do is to take steps 235 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 2: as a country to reduce our vulnerability and to diversify 236 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 2: our supply chains. And to some extent that involves reassuring 237 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 2: things to the United States and doing more here, and 238 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 2: certainly in the area of clean energy. The inflation reduction 239 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 2: act as incentives to do more in the United States, 240 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 2: and the desire there in part is to create good 241 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 2: jobs in industries that are likely to be drivers of 242 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 2: future growth, whether it's semiconductors or clean energy. But we 243 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 2: don't want to forego the benefits of globalization and trade, 244 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 2: and so the idea Year of Friendsharing is that we 245 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 2: want to be able to rely on a broader set 246 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 2: of countries to do trade and investment, to deepen our 247 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 2: trade and investment relationships with countries that we feel are trustworthy, 248 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:21,400 Speaker 2: that can be reliable parts of a global supply chain 249 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 2: that we. 250 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 3: Take part in. 251 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 2: And part of what I've been doing is traveling around 252 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 2: the world talking to countries about developing our supply chain relations. 253 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:38,359 Speaker 2: And of course we're very close partners with Europe, with Canada, Mexico, 254 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,199 Speaker 2: other countries with whom we have free trade areas, but 255 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 2: many more countries. We're deepening our relationships with India, with Vietnam, 256 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 2: so we want this to be broad. We understand that 257 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 2: the international division of labor, with countries taking advantage of 258 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 2: the benefits of parative advantage, doing what you're most efficient at, 259 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 2: relatively efficient at that this is a great set of 260 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:12,679 Speaker 2: benefits both for the United States and also countries that 261 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 2: are given the opportunity to trade and that contributes to 262 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 2: their growth. 263 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 3: So we don't want to. 264 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 2: Forego that, and we do want to maintain the benefits 265 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 2: of globalization, but without the vulnerability that comes from a 266 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 2: undue reliance on a few countries that may restrict trade 267 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 2: for political or other reasons. 268 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 1: So you mentioned broadening our network of friends that we 269 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: can have partnerships with, but also China. I know you 270 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: took a trip to China and to Beijing this summer. 271 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 1: You've been talking about how our policy should really be 272 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: around de risking or diversifying rather than decoupling. But what 273 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,719 Speaker 1: do you think is the current state so that do 274 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,959 Speaker 1: you think the Chinese have adopted that and feel like 275 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 1: they can trust us on that front, or do you 276 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 1: think they still really think that we're in a competition 277 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 1: with them first and foremost. 278 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 2: So, I mean, we've articulated a strategy. As you said, 279 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 2: it involves de risking in some areas where we're overly 280 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:26,919 Speaker 2: dependent on China, and clean energy is a good example. 281 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 2: We also intend to focus on national security. That's an 282 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 2: area that we're not willing to compromise on, and so 283 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 2: we do have export controls. 284 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 3: We continue to review them. 285 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 2: We're working on a set of restrictions on outbound investment 286 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 2: to China. We've discussed this with them and put out 287 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 2: a proposal that's in the public domain. 288 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 3: I think comments just closed on it. 289 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,640 Speaker 2: But our objective there is to target what we do 290 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:10,439 Speaker 2: as narrowly as possible so that it really focuses on 291 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 2: national security, that it is not an intention in that 292 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 2: to harm the prospects of Chinese economic development and the 293 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:26,120 Speaker 2: welfare of the Chinese people. So we intend to have 294 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:32,959 Speaker 2: healthy competition and mutually beneficial trade and investment with China 295 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,000 Speaker 2: in many areas. I've tried to make this clear. And 296 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 2: then importantly, the third prong of it is we need 297 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 2: to work together on global problems. Debt relief is one 298 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 2: of those problems. Climate changes another, but there are many examples. 299 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 2: So that's what we're trying to do in terms of 300 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 2: our strategy. You know, President Biden and President she met 301 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 2: in Bali. I guess it's just over a year ago. 302 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 2: At that meeting, In more or less to over two years, 303 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 2: almost no senior level contact had taken place during the 304 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 2: pandemic between China and the United States, and I think 305 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 2: that was a dangerous situation. And especially when there are disagreements, 306 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 2: it's actually important to be able to discuss them, to 307 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 2: talk through to see the other country's point of view, 308 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,639 Speaker 2: and to discuss areas where you're not in sync. 309 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,640 Speaker 3: And it was recognized by. 310 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 2: Both sides that we needed to talk more to deepen 311 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 2: our discussions, exchange of information, and particularly in economic areas 312 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 2: macroeconomic performance, financial markets, where our behavior has spillovers a 313 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,439 Speaker 2: back and forth to one another, and also our decisions 314 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 2: affect the global outlaw as a whole. And that's what 315 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 2: I tried to begin in my meetings that I had 316 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 2: in China, and things have continued very positively from there. 317 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 2: We've formed two working groups. They report to me and 318 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 2: my Chinese counterpart of fun. One concerns economic matters, the 319 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 2: other financial matters. The working groups met earlier this week. 320 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 2: Both of them met, and we now have a set 321 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 2: of very constructive and deepening discussions about areas of mutual concern. 322 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 2: And it's good to have contacts throughout our chain, it 323 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:56,800 Speaker 2: levels below secretary staff level, discussions and channels of communication 324 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 2: where when the problem arises, each side can pay up 325 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,679 Speaker 2: the phone and discuss it before it rises to the 326 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 2: level of a real, really serious disagreement. So I think 327 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 2: this agenda is working. We certainly will continue to deepen 328 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 2: our economic relationship and discussions, and I'm feeling very good 329 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:20,639 Speaker 2: about how things are going there. 330 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,399 Speaker 1: Turning back to the US Secretary Yellen, you've described the 331 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: Biden administration's economic policies as something you referred to as 332 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 1: modern supply side economics, and with those policies, they're aiming 333 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 1: to increase the productive. 334 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,239 Speaker 3: Capacity in the US. That's right, that's a pretty good 335 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 3: big goal. 336 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 1: So can you talk to me a little bit about 337 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 1: how long do you think it's going to take for 338 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:50,400 Speaker 1: some of those policies to become entrenched enough that they 339 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 1: stick and have a real impact on people. And the 340 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: reason I'm asking is because I'm looking ahead to next year. 341 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,679 Speaker 1: The election is coming up. What's at stake if the 342 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 1: Democrats don't retain the White House in terms of the 343 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 1: ability for some of those policies to take hold. 344 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 2: So, yes, modern supply side economics, it's in part of 345 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 2: growth strategy, and this is something Republicans and Democrats I 346 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 2: think share a desire to see real wages and incomes increase, 347 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 2: to see economic welfare for the broad set of Americans 348 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 2: to improve over time, and an economic growth or quote 349 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 2: supply side strategy. This isn't a matter of demand management. 350 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:45,360 Speaker 2: It's a matter of improving our economy's ability to produce 351 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 2: goods and services over the medium to long term. I 352 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 2: think agree on that it's widely accepted. The Republican strategy 353 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 2: has been, as I said, largely a trickle down strategy 354 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 2: of giving tax breaks or deregulation to the rich and 355 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 2: corporations in the expectation or hope that benefits would trickle down. 356 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 2: More broadly, I see that as a failed strategy and 357 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 2: one that has really not been successful. It creating broad 358 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 2: shared prosperity. And I see modern supply side economics as 359 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 2: having the same objective but proceeding in a different way. 360 00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:33,360 Speaker 2: And there are many factors that our inputs into growth 361 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 2: besides private investment. For too long, we ignored infrastructure. So 362 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 2: investing in America's infrastructure as a return produces. 363 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 3: Benefits R and D. 364 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 2: We're now really, after having decades in which US spending 365 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 2: on research and development, certainly at the federal level, had 366 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 2: fallen to very low levels, we're no longer one of 367 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 2: the leading countries in terms of the resources we devote 368 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 2: to R and D. That we've stepped that up substantially 369 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 2: in the legislation that's been passed. And what we want 370 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 2: is also growth that's equitable, so addressing inequality. As saying, 371 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:30,560 Speaker 2: for over fifty years, essentially the median American really saw. 372 00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,680 Speaker 3: Very little growth, little or no growth in their real income. 373 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 3: We want to change that. 374 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 2: We want to make sure that opportunities are created, especially 375 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,440 Speaker 2: for those who don't have a college education and live 376 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 2: in places. You know, we've had so much growth on 377 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:52,399 Speaker 2: the coasts, but many parts of the country geographies that 378 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 2: it seems progress is passed by. And so if you 379 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 2: look at the legislation that's been passed and the investment 380 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 2: plans that have been announced, We've seen over six hundred 381 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 2: billion dollars in new investments that have been announced. Now, 382 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 2: it takes a while to get those in place, but 383 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 2: look at where are those investments occurring. They are occurring 384 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 2: in parts of the country that have not seen that 385 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 2: kind of investment. And you know, we're seeing electric vehicle 386 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 2: production and battery production in many parts of the country 387 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 2: that have been sorely hurting for good jobs. And so 388 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 2: it will take a while for Americans to see the 389 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 2: benefits of this. But even now, I think many Americans 390 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:51,680 Speaker 2: can see that good jobs are being created in manufacturing, 391 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 2: which is not done well over decades in the United States. 392 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 2: So I believe that opportunities will be created and people 393 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 2: will be able to see that over time in their 394 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:04,240 Speaker 2: daily lives. 395 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 1: No matter what secretary, you've been in public service, nearly 396 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 1: five decades now holding the. 397 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 3: It's a long time. 398 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 1: It's a lot of working years. As you show a 399 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,960 Speaker 1: labor economists, I will say that you've held the top 400 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 1: economic posts you know, across the CEA, FED and now Treasury, 401 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,000 Speaker 1: but you're also known as a technocrat and a policy 402 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: maker rather than a political animal. 403 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 3: Per se. 404 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 1: When you look at the divisiveness in Washington, and we've 405 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: just seen the past few weeks even just on Capitol Hill, 406 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 1: are you concerned that there's less and less room for 407 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 1: a person like you to come into government in Washington 408 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 1: and make a notable difference at the highest levels. If 409 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 1: you're not as politically driven as policy driven. 410 00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,320 Speaker 2: You know, I guess I see that we have a 411 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 2: government that is filled with people who are professional, technically proficient, 412 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:18,480 Speaker 2: and dedicated to good policy. And we are trying to 413 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 2: put in place good, sound, technically solid government policy in 414 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 2: almost everything we do. And in spite of the difficult 415 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 2: political environment that we're in, President Biden and Vice President 416 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:39,440 Speaker 2: Harris in the time they have been in office, have 417 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 2: succeeded in a bipartisan way in having a great deal 418 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 2: of meaningful legislation passed. The Treasury Department, I spend a 419 00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 2: good share of my time working with very capable people 420 00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 2: in our Tax policy department. We are charged with writing 421 00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:06,960 Speaker 2: all of the rules that are governing of the tax 422 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 2: incentives in the inflation reduction Act, those that will are 423 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:18,240 Speaker 2: really creating enormous opportunities in connection with clean energy, and 424 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:24,960 Speaker 2: we've gotten an allocation of funds to restore the Internal 425 00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 2: Revenue Service, to restore their ability to both serve American 426 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 2: customers who deserve to have somebody answered the phone when 427 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 2: you when you call and have been missing that for 428 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 2: a long time, and also to actually collect the taxes 429 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 2: that our tax code says people ow. And when you 430 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 2: think about the fact that over over ten years, the 431 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:57,320 Speaker 2: tax gap, namely the quantity of tax revenue that's due 432 00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 2: but not paid, is estimated at seven trillion dollars. We're 433 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 2: in the process of restoring all of that. 434 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 3: And the people who are doing this. 435 00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 2: Are a largely a civil service that is tremendously competent, professional, 436 00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 2: and dedicated to making the United States function well. So 437 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:25,640 Speaker 2: I think there's plenty of scope for good policy, and 438 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 2: I hope we're in the process of doing it in 439 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 2: spite of some of the what seems like political dysfunction 440 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 2: in our country. 441 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 1: Well, Secretary Yllen, thank you so much for joining us 442 00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 1: today and giving us so much of your time and 443 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 1: sharing your insights. 444 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 3: It's a true public pleasure. Thank you so much. Thanks 445 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 3: to happening on