1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:10,040 Speaker 2: This is the. 3 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:13,399 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak Aisia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. You can join 4 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 1: Brian Curtis and myself for the stories, making news and 5 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,439 Speaker 1: moving markets in the APEC region. You can subscribe to 6 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: the show anywhere you get your podcast and always on 7 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. 8 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 3: Joining us now is Paul Jackson, Bloomberg Economy Editor, for 9 00:00:32,920 --> 00:00:37,479 Speaker 3: a closer look here. Interesting yesterday, Paul in that we 10 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,959 Speaker 3: had a pretty major selloff in the stock market and 11 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 3: the Bank of Japan stayed out of the market. I 12 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 3: think this raised the notion for some that the boj 13 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 3: is preparing to reduce stimulus sometime soon, and maybe as 14 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 3: soon as next week. 15 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 2: What are you hearing, hey? 16 00:00:54,840 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 4: You know that reticence to buy stocks yesterday was pretty unusual. 17 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 4: Bank of Japan has regularly bought when the topics falls 18 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 4: by more than two percent in the morning session, so 19 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 4: it refrained from doing that. That seems to set a 20 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 4: very clear signal out there that some policy reshaping is 21 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 4: in the pipeline now, whether that happens in March or April. 22 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 4: That is the key question, and looking at this survey 23 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 4: of around fifty economists that Bloomberg's done, we have fifty 24 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 4: four percent seeing the move coming in April to raise 25 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 4: interest rates for the first time since two thousand and seven. 26 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,959 Speaker 4: But we do have a growing proportion thinking that the 27 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 4: move will come as soon as March, with thirty eight 28 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 4: percent opting for that. Now, in terms of that a 29 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 4: stock buying yesterday that did not happen, you could also 30 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 4: interpret that as well. Hey, Tokyo stocks have hit a 31 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 4: new record recently, they've finally recovered the lost ground since 32 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 4: the end of nineteen eighty nine, So why on earth 33 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 4: should the Bank of Japan be buying ETFs to indirectly 34 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 4: prop up stocks. So it's not clear cut that this 35 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,839 Speaker 4: means it's March, but it certainly is a signal that 36 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 4: change is looming. 37 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: It's possible too, that maybe the boj was net sellers 38 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: of ETFs. I mean, given what you're talking about in 39 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 1: the equity market trading so near record highs, you know, 40 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: this would be a good opportunity for them to kind 41 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: of sell into any weakness and raise a lot of 42 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 1: money for the treasury. But what struck me too is 43 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 1: that we get that news and then you know, less 44 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: than twenty four hours later a heart reading on wholesale inflation. 45 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 1: I'm wondering whether or not the boj was tapped into 46 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,519 Speaker 1: this PPI report, because this also would argue for a 47 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 1: change in policy, would it not. 48 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 4: Hey, look, I think in terms of the optics for 49 00:02:56,600 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 4: a March move, we have a lot of figures suggesting that, hey, 50 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 4: a window is open and now is the chance to go. 51 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 4: And you know, in central banking, you know it's a 52 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 4: moving target all the time. You know, when you have 53 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 4: an opportunity, you want to grab it with both hands. 54 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 4: You know, this week we've seen GDP turn positive, so 55 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 4: Japan managed to escape this technical recession at the end 56 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 4: of last year. So that's looking a bit more positive. 57 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 4: And central bankers generally want to be raising rates when 58 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 4: you know the economy isn't contracting, so that's good news. 59 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 4: And we also have RENGO wage figures coming on Friday. Now, 60 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 4: if you look at our survey, you can see the 61 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 4: economists are expecting a four point one percent average increase 62 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 4: in the annual pay deals. That compares with three point 63 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 4: eight percent last year. That would be another good figure 64 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 4: that would support a March move. 65 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, we had that GG report saying that that was 66 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 3: the key that if the data significantly exceeded the three 67 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 3: point eight percent that we had last year, that that 68 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 3: could be enough that the Bank of Japan then would 69 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 3: move in. As Doug mentioned, we've had a sort of 70 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 3: clutch of data that support a stronger economy. 71 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 2: That's right. 72 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 4: Some of these reports, I'm not sure they're telling us 73 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 4: a great deal that we don't already know. You know, 74 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 4: we know there is support among officials, some officials for 75 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 4: a March move. We know that RENGO data is a 76 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 4: key factoid. I mean, look, you know, if that figure 77 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 4: comes in at like five percent on Friday, I think. 78 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 2: You know we're on for a March move. 79 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 4: But if it's like, you know, lower four percent range, 80 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 4: then maybe it's going to still be too close to 81 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 4: call whether they raise rates on Tuesday. 82 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: Even before we get the RENGO data. I mean, a 83 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: lot of the wage data that we already have for 84 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 1: Japan shows upward pressure, right, And I think I saw 85 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 1: a story on the Bloomberg indicating that that SoftBank and 86 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: hiked wages by what five and a half percent something 87 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 1: like that. 88 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 4: Hey, we're seeing a lot of anecdotal evidence of big 89 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 4: companies raising wages by more than they have done in 90 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 4: the past. And last week the RANGO, which is the 91 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 4: big Japan's biggest union federation, said, you know, its demands 92 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 4: were well above last year's its average demands from the 93 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 4: union side. So that shows that there is greater pressure, 94 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 4: greater upward pressure on the wages this year. So that 95 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 4: all feeds into the idea that this result on Friday 96 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 4: is going to be higher than last year. 97 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 2: Yeah. 98 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 3: I think that quote from RANGO last week was that 99 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 3: they had already seen an average wage increase of five 100 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 3: point eighty five percent this year, which is, you know, 101 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 3: is significantly stronger than some of those numbers we talked about. 102 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 3: If the boj does want to wait, because I understand 103 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 3: that there's more data and information that will be available 104 00:05:58,120 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 3: before the April gathering. 105 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,559 Speaker 2: What is that data and what will matter most? 106 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 4: Hey, Look, you know the union Federation will be tallying 107 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 4: its initial figures from unions, and hey, it's the big 108 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,599 Speaker 4: companies that usually report first. And these are the kind 109 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 4: of companies that have been doing well out of the 110 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 4: economy and the weekeyen and have had a lot of 111 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 4: profits they've got the kind of where with all to 112 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 4: raise wages. The question is is are smaller companies in 113 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:34,159 Speaker 4: Japan SMEs. Are they able to raise wages? Some of 114 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 4: them are not helped by the weekend, some of them 115 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 4: are hit by the weekend because their import costs go 116 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 4: up as a result. So it's whether they can raise wages. 117 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 4: And so the union figures are tallied and collated and 118 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 4: updated several times right through till July. By that time, 119 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 4: all the small companies have reported. But you know, Governor 120 00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 4: Owada has said he does not need to wait until 121 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 4: all the companies have filed, So that suggests that it's 122 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 4: not July. It's either April or March. And by the 123 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 4: April meeting, he will have more talies, including smaller firms. 124 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 4: He'll also have the tank Can Business Sentiment report, and 125 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 4: he will have had another Branch Managers meeting where his 126 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 4: officials around the country will be able to report back 127 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 4: and check that the wage trend in the regions is 128 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 4: as strong as in the capital. 129 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: So right now we're looking at a stronger currency, a 130 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: weaker equity market, higher JGB yields, and when you look 131 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: at what's happening just in JGB yields. The banks have 132 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: got to be applauding this, right, and they're finally getting 133 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 1: inflation and that's going to basically help expand their net 134 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: interest margins. 135 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 4: Hey, yeah, I think overall this is good for the banks, 136 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 4: and they've been asking for the scrapping of negative interest 137 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 4: rates ever since it started. I mean, obviously, you know, 138 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 4: when you get into the details, into the weeds, it 139 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 4: gets a little bit more complicated depending on the kind 140 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 4: of asset breakdown of the balance sheet of each individual 141 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 4: bank and how much they've got abroad and how much 142 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 4: they're relying on the loans as a part of the 143 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 4: business model. You could argue that it's more the regional 144 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 4: banks rather than megabanks that have got gains to be 145 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 4: made from the scrapping of negative interest rates. But yeah, 146 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 4: I think the banking sector will benefit, and we've seen 147 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 4: that the banking sector stocks have been outperforming the market. 148 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 3: Used to work for a guy that always liked to 149 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 3: do management by walking around, and we've heard a lot 150 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 3: of you know, even academics talk about that in terms 151 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 3: of gauging the economy. So here's the question to you, Paul. 152 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,599 Speaker 3: You're out on the streets I would imagine day in 153 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 3: and day out, does it feel like there's a buzz? 154 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 3: Does it feel like there's some animal spirits gathering. 155 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 4: Hey, you may be talking to the wrong person here, 156 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 4: because I'm not totally convinced that Japan is back and 157 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 4: this is like, you know, we're back to the strength 158 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 4: of the nineteen eighties. I don't see that. But are 159 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 4: there are some positives? And are we at a turning 160 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 4: point in which the economy is moving in a better direction? Yeah, 161 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 4: I think we are. We are closing in on that 162 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 4: kind of. 163 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 2: Thanks so much, Paul. 164 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 3: Paul Jackson, Bloomberg Economy Editor. Joining us now in our 165 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 3: studios in Hong Kong is Helen Choo, Chief Greater China 166 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 3: Economist at Bank of America Global Research. 167 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 2: Helen, thanks very much for joining us. Thank you for 168 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 2: having me. This is a very interesting time for it China. 169 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 3: A lot of complicated questions come to mind, but maybe 170 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 3: set the stage for us first and your overall impression 171 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 3: of what we got from policymakers over the past week. 172 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 5: Thank you for the question and thank you for having me. 173 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 5: I would say that the MPC probably delivered a pretty 174 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 5: consistent message. As you know, the policy orientation to begin with. 175 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 5: I would say that my takeaway is that there was 176 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 5: no upside surprise and there was not so much of 177 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 5: a downside surprise either. If you look at the growth 178 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:22,199 Speaker 5: target numbers, I would say that's largely in line, about 179 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 5: five percent flatish from last year. And also, you know, 180 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 5: I think everybody is saying this number, not expecting them 181 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:31,319 Speaker 5: to cut in the meantime fixing, you know, the physical 182 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 5: package and also the monetary policy language. We didn't see 183 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,440 Speaker 5: too much of a deviation between what they said and 184 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 5: what everybody was expecting, you know, anything to write home about, 185 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 5: Probably not much, given that I think people were largely 186 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 5: expecting a little bit a combination of relatively conservative physical 187 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 5: deficit number in terms of the headline, and with a 188 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 5: little of a little bit of goodies of local government, 189 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 5: the special purpose bond issuance and the ultra long term 190 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 5: treasury bond issues. 191 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: Helen, I'd like to get your take on the inflation 192 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 1: data that we had over the weekend. I mean, PPI 193 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,439 Speaker 1: remains in deflation. It's been that way for about a 194 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: year and a half. It seems there was an uptick 195 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: in the CPI print. Now, maybe that was due to 196 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: the Chinese New Year the way the calendar fell this year, 197 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: and I'm wondering whether or not you regard this as 198 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: a pivot point. Is it significant or is it just 199 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 1: a blip and that China is going to be confronted 200 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 1: with a deflationary pressure for some time. 201 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 5: That's a terrific question. In fact, I think we are 202 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 5: scratching our heads as well, because if you look at 203 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 5: the inflation numbers, part of it obviously came from the 204 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 5: lunar New Year effect, and the other part is probably 205 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 5: the colder than usual weather in feb in most part 206 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:48,199 Speaker 5: of China. So those probably contributed quite a lot. Because 207 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 5: if we were to have the same sequential growth from 208 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 5: December to GEN and we transplanted from a GEN to Feb, 209 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 5: then there's no way that this could be a positive 210 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 5: zero point seven percent. It will be one percentage points lower. 211 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 5: And therefore, this is saying quite a lot about the 212 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 5: sequential changes. But how much of that is the temporary factors? 213 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,679 Speaker 5: As we just stated, we're terms of you know, how 214 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,679 Speaker 5: much of that is coming from a growth bombing out story? Well, 215 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 5: I think if you look at trade data that is 216 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 5: suggesting that some part of this economy is doing pretty well, 217 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 5: maybe also subject to the lunar New Year effect, but 218 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 5: I would say overall speaking, there is a higher chance 219 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 5: that when we look at IPE retail sales and FAI 220 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 5: later in a few days, we probably need to watch 221 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,359 Speaker 5: very closely for any sign to the upside. 222 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 3: If you're looking to juice the economy a little bit, 223 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 3: it doesn't seem like it can come that easily. On 224 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:47,839 Speaker 3: the investment side, you're not going to invest more in property, infrastructure, 225 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 3: it doesn't seem to be that productive. And manufacturing Chinnel 226 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 3: already has one third of global manufacturing, So it seems 227 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 3: like what we're hearing from economists is it needs to 228 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 3: be On the consumption side, question is how do you 229 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 3: do it? And you know, China does not want to 230 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 3: follow the policies that we saw in the US and 231 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 3: Europe in providing fiscal stimulus directly to households. 232 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 5: Should they, Well, it's a brand great question. It's a 233 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 5: one question about should they and the other question will they? 234 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 5: But if we look at, you know, what they have 235 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 5: been currently seeing, I think we probably have been seeing 236 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 5: this for a while, so I didn't expect any disagreement, 237 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 5: which is a dichotomous development in gross drivers. As you said, 238 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 5: you know, consumption is doing fine, and especially consumption of 239 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 5: services is doing more than fine. Look at the Lunar 240 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 5: New Year traveling data, right the tourism revenue, the tourism numbers, 241 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 5: tourist numbers, those were actually quite standing and definitely a 242 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 5: beat relative to the market and mediocre expectation. But in 243 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 5: the meantime they're the investment side is still pretty sluggish. 244 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 5: And right now if you look at the post lunarr 245 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 5: data such as rebar orders or cement orders or the 246 00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 5: code that are co consumption used by IPPs, those numbers 247 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 5: are not telling us that we're seeing any heat up 248 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 5: on the on the investment side. So now going back 249 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 5: to your question, it's up to the policy makers to 250 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 5: decide what are they going to do. Investment clearly needs 251 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 5: more help, but are we not. Are we seeing that 252 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 5: from the infrastructure side, not too much yet, but maybe 253 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 5: more is coming. But consumption, are they going to subsidize consumers? 254 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 5: We don't see that coming in the near future either. 255 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: So one of the other things we learned from the 256 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: NPC Helen is a target for urban employment of around 257 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: twelve million jobs very quickly forty seconds or so where 258 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 1: is that going to come from? 259 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 2: Well? Where is that? 260 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 5: Well we think that the the the infrastructure investments impetus 261 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 5: is probably going to come through through the three project 262 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 5: you know advertised, which is social housing, dual use of 263 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 5: infrastructure as well as urban village development. But we need 264 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 5: to see the money and we need to see the actions. 265 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 5: At the moment, we're not seeing the orders and the 266 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 5: money is probably flowing very slowly. 267 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 2: I have to tell a quick anecdote. When I took 268 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 2: my daughter to. 269 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 3: Take the SATs for a college a few years back, 270 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 3: the place was swamped by Mainlanders and it just it 271 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 3: surprised me and it scared me. How are you going 272 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 3: to employ all those people? And it seems to be 273 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 3: coming home to rust at the moment. Helen, thanks so 274 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 3: much for joining us. Helen Choo, Chief Greater China Economists 275 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 3: at Bank of America, a Global Reserve. 276 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 2: Joining us now is David finnerd E. 277 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 3: Bloomberg's FX and rates strategists take a closer look at 278 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 3: at market to appetite here this morning. We've seen a 279 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 3: little bit of strength in the end, although it seems 280 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 3: like gets leveled off a bit now dollar yen David 281 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 3: one for six ninety two. If you were a betting 282 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 3: man in markets, which way will the BOJ go? Actually, 283 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 3: that's a good question. 284 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 6: I think I was heavily being in the April camp, 285 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 6: but given all the rhetoric that's coming out, you know, 286 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 6: you certainly have to give a chance that March is 287 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 6: definitely on the table. I think what's interesting if you 288 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 6: go back, I'd still going to go for April if 289 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 6: you had pushed me to it. And the reason being 290 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 6: is coming away to recently said, you know, he did 291 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 6: say that we're not quite there yet, and obviously this 292 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 6: data coming out fired it could be enough to swing 293 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 6: him at the moment. But just because at the moment, yeah, 294 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 6: he does have the most clouch, we say he'd said 295 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 6: not quite there yet, and at the begainn of that, 296 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 6: there's no rush for BOJ two exit. What's difference between 297 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 6: waiting another six weeks getting a bit more data. So 298 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 6: I would still say my end april's a bit more likely, 299 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 6: But as I said, March definitely can't be ruled off 300 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 6: the table. 301 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: So if we can agree that the BOJ prilly much 302 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: adopts an incremental as type approach, what do they do 303 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: in stages here. Do they they basically stop buying ETFs? 304 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 1: Do they change the yield Kirk control structure, or did 305 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: they do away with a negative policy? 306 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 3: Right? 307 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 1: I mean, is there one preference? Do you think that 308 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 1: they might have, at least initially to insert the thin 309 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 1: end of the wedge? 310 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 2: Yeah? 311 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,120 Speaker 6: No, I think that's such a very good question because 312 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 6: it catches. Okay, you get of negative rates, what then? 313 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 6: And that's really what the market's most interested in. What's next? 314 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 6: And that's the big thing. You know, how many rate 315 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 6: hikes do you have this year? Do you have any more? 316 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 6: Do you get rid of your control? Now? The Bankerchevan 317 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,719 Speaker 6: is continually said, look, we're trying to They hate yields 318 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 6: jumping quickly every time they tweak the policy. They've been 319 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 6: in buying policies, buying bonds coming away, that has to 320 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 6: look much easy and it's going to continue afterwards. So 321 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 6: you think they wouldn't have to do anything radical because 322 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,640 Speaker 6: again we know the market. If you open the door, 323 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 6: the market will sprint through it, particularly in this case 324 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 6: if it means like great hikes for Bankageman. I think 325 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 6: they'll be very careful on this one. So I think 326 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 6: they'll do it stage by stage, because otherwise said the 327 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 6: market will just go, well, we're going to jump three 328 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 6: four stages ahead of you, So they could obviously scrap 329 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,399 Speaker 6: why c see. But again the markets going to the 330 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:15,880 Speaker 6: market just push up rates and that means them buying 331 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 6: even more bonds they already own enough on So I 332 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 6: don't think they want to scrap why you see at 333 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 6: the March meeting. If they do raise rates, I think 334 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 6: we'll do it very incrementally. Having said that the market's 335 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 6: going to go, that we know. 336 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 2: Where you're going. 337 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 6: We're going to go there anyway, before you get there, 338 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 6: try and stop us. But I think the BIJ and 339 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 6: its interest will be said slowly but shortly, one step 340 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 6: at a time. 341 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 3: You know, we focus on this a lot because obviously 342 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 3: it can really move global markets, particularly if the end 343 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 3: were to strengthen a lot, and you know, to those 344 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,199 Speaker 3: people who are hoping for normalization, it might be a 345 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 3: case of be careful what you wish for, And especially 346 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 3: with equity investors, we've seen a little bit of a 347 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:59,199 Speaker 3: pullback now in the Japanese stock market of lead. What 348 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,680 Speaker 3: are some of the kind te quenceas of a much 349 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 3: stronger yen if indeed we see that well. 350 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:06,360 Speaker 6: I think the two thing is, as you rightly said, 351 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 6: is if you see it, because I think you had 352 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 6: to fact of a dollar side of the equation as well. 353 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 6: If us CPI comes out high tonight, but obviously the 354 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 6: chance of the Fed pushing its rate cuts back obviously grows, 355 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 6: which could see a dollar get a bid, which obviously 356 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 6: would help dollar yen rise. But if the yen was 357 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,679 Speaker 6: the streak, and certainly I think the worry is that 358 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 6: the nick could definitely take be sold off due for correction, 359 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 6: shall we say, and that could be the catalyst for 360 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 6: other stock markets to go globally. They're all in elevated 361 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,479 Speaker 6: territory and doesn't mean they can't go further, but they 362 00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 6: are based on this concept of you know, low interest rates, 363 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,920 Speaker 6: steady growth and stable growth, and which we have so far. 364 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 6: But when there are at these levels, it doesn't take 365 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 6: much of them to rock something to rock the boat, 366 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 6: and normally it will come out of the US side 367 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,400 Speaker 6: and then everyone follows the US equities. In this case, 368 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 6: it could actually be the Japanese equities selling off that 369 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 6: could spark equity globally to sell off. 370 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: In the risk sentiment at some point, though maybe we've 371 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 1: already been seeing it with a repatriation of Japanese assets, 372 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 1: selling down markets offshore and bringing that money home to Japan. 373 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 1: I mean, is this going to be a trend or now? 374 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: Given everything that we're talking about with pretty much, I 375 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: don't know that it's a known known that we're going 376 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: to get a shift in BOJ policy. But clearly the 377 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,080 Speaker 1: equity market is down from it's high. Is that an 378 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:30,440 Speaker 1: indication is though that maybe the near term repatriation trade 379 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 1: has hit the pause button. 380 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 6: I don't know if it's necessarily to with the repatriation trade. 381 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 6: I think there's a lot of sentiment and when everyone's 382 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 6: in the one trade, you know, you're worried about I 383 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 6: don't want to be the last one to exit that 384 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 6: trade because I'm you know, by that time market's a 385 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 6: lot lower. So when it's been so one dimensional, I 386 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 6: think the markets just get tritchery anyway, and they're looking 387 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 6: for any what potential catalyst that could trigger a reversal 388 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 6: of that trade, because they know if it's a mass exodus, 389 00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 6: then it's problems if you were last one with the 390 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 6: repatriate trade. Obviously that's something that has to be considered. 391 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 6: But again, look if if BOJ raises rates, they say 392 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 6: to the zero to keep it simple, and let's signal, 393 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 6: they say, they signal rate hikes, small rate hikes. This 394 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 6: year it's a fits still trying to be high, you know, 395 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 6: pushes back, it's right, rate hikes, and so you push 396 00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 6: the years up even about high US seals. Then at 397 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 6: the end of the day you go still got a 398 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 6: nice differential there favoring Donnien. So the question of how 399 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,640 Speaker 6: much do you want to repatriate? 400 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, let's talk a little bit about the US treasury market. 401 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,360 Speaker 3: With a ten year at four point zero nine percent, 402 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 3: it feels like this is a relatively comfortable area for 403 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 3: the ten year, given where growth is. The ten year 404 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 3: is usually not all that far off of I suppose 405 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 3: where general growth is and the US economy has been 406 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 3: pretty strong. Is this, you know, is this where we're 407 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,359 Speaker 3: going to rest for a while, between say four and 408 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 3: four and a quarter percent on the tenure. 409 00:21:55,880 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 6: That range I think certainly a fair value range. I 410 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 6: think certainly near to your biggest risk for the yields. 411 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 6: Going above that four and a quarter range would be 412 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 6: obviously a strong print tonight, and that fed through if 413 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:09,880 Speaker 6: you look at the FED dot plot next week, because 414 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 6: that's really what market's really looking for. This is just 415 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 6: CPI goes into FED into that. All you need at 416 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 6: the moment you look at last dot plot, you had 417 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 6: eight people in the two rate cuts are under and 418 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 6: you had eleven in the three cut over. So I 419 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 6: need is two people from the three cutter overcamp to 420 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 6: switch camps, and my median dot plot goes from three 421 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 6: to two. And the market's not like that at all. 422 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,400 Speaker 6: The market wants rate cuts, not less rate cuts. So 423 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 6: I think the big worry would be a knee jerk 424 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,479 Speaker 6: reaction if that print came is strong and if the 425 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 6: dot plot again this isn't it if I'm not saying, well, 426 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,120 Speaker 6: if it dot plot did suddenly say hey there's only 427 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,159 Speaker 6: two cuts, then I think you'll see that pressure on 428 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 6: the treasuries and I think they would go above four 429 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 6: and a quarter if it's the three dot plots signal 430 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 6: as the media, And then I think agree with you. 431 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 6: I think you're stay in the sort of four four 432 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 6: and a quarter range. 433 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: So the dollar. Then give me your view on the dollar. 434 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: Given everything that you're just but describing with US rates, 435 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: what's your outlook for the dollar. 436 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 6: I think, well, the market is biased towards rate cuts, 437 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 6: there's no question about that, and they get any chance 438 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 6: to price and the rate cut, they'll happily do it. 439 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 6: So if the US inflation data tonight comes in weak, 440 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 6: you know, dollar obviously gets smacked very quickly. But if 441 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 6: a data comes in anywhere near in line of estimates, 442 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 6: then I think you really have to question of certainly 443 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,679 Speaker 6: three dot plots next week, three dots potentially two, and 444 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,920 Speaker 6: with three the markets still go in three to four 445 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 6: three and a half at the moment, So I think 446 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 6: that could be dial back a bit more so then 447 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 6: I think that will help the dollar. You have to 448 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,439 Speaker 6: always remember though, that other sides there's your ECB and 449 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,120 Speaker 6: the BOE and the BOJ, so you've got a factor 450 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 6: those into the equation. But from the Fed perspective, I 451 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,399 Speaker 6: think uscos could go a bit higher. 452 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 3: It just feels like it should go down a little bit, 453 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,879 Speaker 3: because you know, you put rates up to five and 454 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 3: a half percent when inflation was in eight percent. 455 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 2: We're a long way from that now. 456 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 3: Doesn't it seem like a little bit of adjustment to 457 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:54,880 Speaker 3: the downside is warranted. 458 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,679 Speaker 6: Well, you say, the moment the data comes out today, 459 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 6: you could go there's no rate cut needed as all 460 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 6: in the near future. With zero point three percent month 461 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 6: of a month, that's too high to be cutting rates. 462 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 6: So I think certainly, yes, you could cut rates late 463 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 6: this year. The question becomes, how many rate cuts do 464 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 6: you need to do? Particularly the effects wear enough? 465 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 2: Okay, David, excellent session. Thank you very much. 466 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,520 Speaker 3: David Finnerty, Bloomberg FX and Rates Strategist. 467 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,960 Speaker 1: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you 468 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,160 Speaker 1: the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 469 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 470 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,399 Speaker 1: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 471 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,240 Speaker 1: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen 472 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 1: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 473 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App.