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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy lost the gavel, Now he's leaving Congress. Welcome

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Speaker 3: to the fastest show in politics, as the former speaker

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Speaker 3: announces plans to call it quits at the end of

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Speaker 3: this year, as the new Speaker, Mike Johnson faces, of course,

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Speaker 3: enormous challenges, and President Biden adding new pressure today with

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Speaker 3: his call to vote on Israel and Ukraine funding. We'll

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Speaker 3: put all of this together the latest from both ends

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Speaker 3: of Pennsylvania Avenue on another breaking news day in Washington,

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Speaker 3: and we'll discuss with Mick mulvaney, the co founder of

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Speaker 3: the House Freedom Caucus, former acting Chief of Staff in

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Speaker 3: the Trump White House. Israel driving into the south of Gaza.

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Speaker 3: Now we're going to look at the job ahead and

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Speaker 3: how effective Israel can be from the air with an

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Speaker 3: expert on this, retired Air Force General David Deptula, will

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Speaker 3: be with us.

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Speaker 4: In just moments.

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Speaker 3: We'll also have analysis from our panel, of course, as

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Speaker 3: you would expect this hour today. We're joined by Republican

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Speaker 3: strategist Lisa Camuso Miller and Democratic strategist Brad Howard. So

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Speaker 3: let's get started on what we know. It has been

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Speaker 3: one of those days. As soon as you wake up

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Speaker 3: in Washington, d C. The headlines start flying. You heard

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Speaker 3: me mention Kevin McCarthy. Joe Biden just spoke from the

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Speaker 3: White House. And that's where we want to start with

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Speaker 3: what could be could be an important test vote today

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Speaker 3: on Capitol Hill when it comes to funding for Ukraine

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Speaker 3: and the rest of the supplemental that the President put

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Speaker 3: forth Israel Taiwan border.

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Speaker 4: Here's the President moments ago.

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Speaker 5: This cannot wait. Congress needs to pass supplemental funding for

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Speaker 5: Ukraine before they break for the holiday. Resource as simple

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Speaker 5: as that, Frank, I think it's stunning that we've gotten

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Speaker 5: to this point in the first place. Well, Congress, Republics

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Speaker 5: and congress as are willing to give putin the greatest

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Speaker 5: gift he could hope for in our global leadership, not

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Speaker 5: just Ukraine, but beyond that.

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Speaker 3: As I mentioned, the Senate expected to hold a test

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Speaker 3: vote later today on the overall aid package. It is

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Speaker 3: expected to fail the president of course knows that. But

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Speaker 3: planting a flag again on this issue today one that

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Speaker 3: has been rather newsy. As I mentioned, we heard earlier

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Speaker 3: from Kevin McCarthy that he's leaving the building. There were

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Speaker 3: a lot of questions about whether he was going to

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Speaker 3: run for reelection, what his plans might be post speaker.

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Some folks may have even thought he might run again.

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Speaker 3: But he wrote an op ed earlier today, followed by

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Speaker 3: a slick produced video on Twitter, and we'll give you

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Speaker 3: a taste Kevin McCarthy waving goodbye.

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Speaker 6: Now it is time to pursue my passion in a

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Speaker 6: new arena. Well, I'll be departing the house at the

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Speaker 6: end of this year. I will never ever give up

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Speaker 6: fighting for this country that I love so much.

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Speaker 7: To all those who have supported me through the years.

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Speaker 6: Especially our constituents, thank you from the bottom of my heart.

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Speaker 3: And that's it. Almost like a movie trailer. It's well produced.

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Speaker 3: You see him on the floor, he's doing this and that.

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Speaker 3: Then he's sitting alone in a chair wearing the suit.

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Speaker 3: He's got a lave mic on his lapel, and after

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Speaker 3: what you just heard, he takes the mic off and drops.

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Speaker 6: It now it is time to pursue my passion in

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Speaker 6: a new arena.

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Speaker 7: Well, I'll be departing the house at the end of

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Speaker 7: this year.

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Speaker 6: I think here it is this God Bless you and

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Speaker 6: God Bless America.

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Speaker 4: Yep, that's a wrap and literally drops the mic. That's

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Speaker 4: a wrap.

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Speaker 3: Not quite as dramatic when it's a lave. If I

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Speaker 3: dropped this thing, that would make some noise. I'm not

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Speaker 3: gonna know.

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Speaker 4: They're telling me in the studio, Joe, don't do it.

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Speaker 4: They're expensive. Let's bring in Mick maulvaney.

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Speaker 3: I can only imagine what's going through his mind, although

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Speaker 3: he might have been on the phone with Kevin McCarthy

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Speaker 3: just last night. Insider's insider on the Republican side, certainly

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Speaker 3: from the House to the White House.

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Speaker 4: Make it's great to see you.

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Speaker 3: Everyone's asking what it means to have Kevin McCarthy leave

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Speaker 3: the house, and of course, well it's not speaker anymore,

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Speaker 3: but it does speak pretty loudly. The day after Patrick

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Speaker 3: McHenry announced his plans to not run for reelection, what

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Speaker 3: do you make of this?

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Speaker 8: Hey, Joe, where do you start? It is that kind

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Speaker 8: of day where Matt and your office calls me on

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Speaker 8: my cellphone and said, have you seen Twitter? And you're

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Speaker 8: sort of what merit that kind of call? So I

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Speaker 8: had a couple of those phone calls in the White Houses,

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Speaker 8: you can imagine. But anyway, a couple of things not surprising.

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Speaker 8: I didn't talk to Kevin last night, but it doesn't

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Speaker 8: surprise those of us who who who know. The question

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Speaker 8: was that was sort of whether he was gonna do

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Speaker 8: this now or wait until the end of the term.

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Speaker 8: Keeping in mind that my understanding California laws that Gavin

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Speaker 8: Newsome when I'll have the right to set the re

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Speaker 8: election date, and why would a Democrat governor rush to

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Speaker 8: fill us That looks like it's a Republican seat. So

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Speaker 8: this looks like it's going to eat again into the

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Speaker 8: very narrow Republican majority. That's one angle here. The other

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Speaker 8: angle here is with Kevin's departure. One of the reason

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Speaker 8: people were hoping he might stay around was that Kevin

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Speaker 8: is the second most successful fundraiser in the history of

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Speaker 8: the House, after only Nancy Gelosi and Mike Johnson. You know,

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Speaker 8: it seems to be you know, doing a fairly decent

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Speaker 8: job in a couple different areas, but He's no Kevin

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Speaker 8: McCarthy when it comes to raising doe And we're going

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Speaker 8: into a big presidential election year. So where are they

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Speaker 8: going to plug the hole on the money? My guess

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Speaker 8: is that Kevin's you know, new job is not going

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Speaker 8: to involve him raising money for the Republican Party. So

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Speaker 8: there's a bunch of different angles here. We could do

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Speaker 8: this for an hour, but we'll talk about everyone talking

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Speaker 8: about including his videos.

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Speaker 3: Well, he's got a lot of money though, Mick, right,

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Speaker 3: he could still actually play an interesting role in this

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Speaker 3: campaign cycle.

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Speaker 4: How will he use the millions he raised?

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Speaker 7: Oh?

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Speaker 8: I would think that Nancy Mace is going to have

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Speaker 8: a problem. Matt Gates is going to have a problem.

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Speaker 8: Anybody the guy from Tennessee yet have a problem that

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Speaker 8: that's that's where this money is going. Might a little

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Speaker 8: of it go to help build a Republican majority? Yeah?

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Speaker 8: Might still of it go towards subtling some scores? Absolutely?

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Speaker 8: And who could blame him? Who could really blame him?

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Speaker 8: He was listen like Kevin? Don't like Kevin. He happens

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Speaker 8: to be a friend of mine. I like him, but

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Speaker 8: he was treated bad as a human being. And you

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Speaker 8: know these folks. Even though they're they're Congress people. We

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Speaker 8: put them up on a pedal stuff. They're still humans

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Speaker 8: and that's got as smart and revenge is going to

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Speaker 8: be particularly sweet, I think for Kevin if he's able

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Speaker 8: to take any of those folks out.

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Speaker 3: Did you say you spoke with him yesterday and either

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Speaker 3: way MC, last time you guys talked, where was his head?

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Speaker 3: Is this a Washington that's broken or a Washington that

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Speaker 3: that doesn't need me?

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Speaker 4: What was he thinking?

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Speaker 8: No, No, it was, it was It was still angered

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Speaker 8: how I've been treated. It was. It was. It was

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Speaker 8: a it's a personal thing now between him and Matt Gates.

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Speaker 8: And you got a little bit of that when you

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Speaker 8: saw him speak to the press and so forth. You know,

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Speaker 8: we saw it a little bit less filtered, but still

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Speaker 8: the same end result, which is that this had nothing

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Speaker 8: to do with the fact that he cut a deal

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Speaker 8: with the Senate. This has nothing to do with fact

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Speaker 8: that he had a Byparsson deal to keep the government open.

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Speaker 8: This was Matt Gates looking for a way to settle

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Speaker 8: a score. I don't understand how it started. And if

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Speaker 8: Kevin knows, he wasn't sharing it with those of us

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Speaker 8: who are close to him. So this was just a

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Speaker 8: personal animosity and that's not going away anytime soon.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's been a tortured experience for him. I know

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Speaker 4: over the past couple of months.

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Speaker 3: You go back to October and I just want to

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Speaker 3: kind of go through the shades of McCarthy here. You

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Speaker 3: heard that very upbeat message he sent today.

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Speaker 4: That's a rack. We did the right thing.

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Speaker 3: Sounds a lot like some of the things that he

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Speaker 3: actually said over the course of time following the fateful

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Speaker 3: cr that got him fired.

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Speaker 4: Let's work through this. This is the beginning of October

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Speaker 4: the third.

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Speaker 9: I don't regret standing up for choosing governan over grievance.

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Speaker 7: It is my responsibility, it is my job.

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Speaker 10: I do not regret negotiating our government designed to find compromise.

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Speaker 9: I don't regret my efforts to build coalitions and find solutions.

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Speaker 3: And that, by the way, was that was the good day.

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Speaker 3: That was the victory lap. After they got the CR passed,

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Speaker 3: started to get a little dark.

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Speaker 4: This is the thirteenth of what I did was right.

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Speaker 6: Keeping government open.

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Speaker 9: Can you imagine for one moment the wars that are

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Speaker 9: going around the world, and if government was shut down,

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Speaker 9: that if our troops were not being paid right now,

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Speaker 9: we want them in the aircraft carrier strike team to

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Speaker 9: be out there questioning where they're going to be able

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Speaker 9: to pay their rent.

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Speaker 4: You have fast forward to the twentieth of October, started

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Speaker 4: to get a little short in the quarters of the

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Speaker 4: capital strategy for him.

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Speaker 9: Here we are in a very bad place right now.

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Speaker 3: Yet a very bad place right now, Mick. Is the

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Speaker 3: Republican Conference still in a bad place because Joe Biden

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Speaker 3: just called for Ukraine funding to be passed, and there

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Speaker 3: doesn't seem to be a path for anything right now,

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Speaker 3: including funding the government.

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Speaker 8: Those are two different questions. Let's talk about the biding thing. Yep,

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Speaker 8: fair enough finds politics right, I mean, Biden is just

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Speaker 8: politics that the House has already passed a bill to

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Speaker 8: fund Israel. The White House doesn't like it. But the

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Speaker 8: way it's supposed to work is the Senate supposed to

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Speaker 8: pass something, and then the House and the Senate supposed

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Speaker 8: to conference. This is the old schoolhouse Rock. You know,

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Speaker 8: I'm just a bill. I'm only a bill, cetera. So

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Speaker 8: that's just politics. The White House doesn't like what the

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Speaker 8: House has done, but the House has certainly done something.

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Speaker 8: Your first question is a lot more interesting, which is

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Speaker 8: is the Republican conference broken?

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Speaker 7: Oh?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, there's no question about it. I've not talked to

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Speaker 8: Patrick since his Patrick a good friend of mine, since

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Speaker 8: his announcement yesterday. Patrick, technically Joe, as you know, was

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Speaker 8: term limited as the Chairman of House Financial Services, but

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Speaker 8: was in line for an exemption and probably could have

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Speaker 8: stayed if the Republicans were going to keep the majority.

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Speaker 8: His departure might tell you a couple of different things.

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Speaker 8: Number one, that he thinks that maybe they're going to

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Speaker 8: go into minority anyway, and it would be a chairmanship

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Speaker 8: that's opened to him. But secondly, and this is I've

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Speaker 8: talked with a bunch of folks in folks. I'm hearing Tuscus,

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Speaker 8: Alabama for the debate tonight on New Nation. There's a

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Speaker 8: bunch of Republican folks here and they're all talking about

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Speaker 8: how poisonous the atmosphere is right now in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 8: That if there's a Republican who can find the door

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Speaker 8: and find a good exit strategy, they're looking for it

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Speaker 8: right now. You mentioned Mike Johnson at the outset. You

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Speaker 8: didn't mention Bill Johnson, a lesser known member of Congress

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Speaker 8: came in with me in twenty ten. He's already accepted

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Speaker 8: the job as the president of Youngstown State in his

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Speaker 8: home home state of Ohio. It's unclear as to what

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Speaker 8: he would be leaving if he leaves in January. That's

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Speaker 8: yet another Republican speak seat that is gone in that majority.

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Speaker 8: So now, if you're a Republican who has a better

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Speaker 8: offer right now on the table, you are seriously considering

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Speaker 8: it looking for a way to leave.

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Speaker 4: Wow, you must be glad you did that already, Mick.

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Speaker 3: A pretty remarkable situation, by the way, Thanks for taking

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Speaker 3: Matt's call and looking at Sweter this morning. I look

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Speaker 3: forward to your thoughts on the debate tonight. Goodluck down

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Speaker 3: there in Tuscaloosa where you've got four it now four

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Speaker 3: Republican candidates on the stage, And turn our attention to

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Speaker 3: the other major story we're following, and of course that's

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Speaker 3: what's happening overseas in Israel and more specifically in Gaza,

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Speaker 3: of course, where hostages are still being held by Hamas.

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Speaker 3: John Kirby, retired Admiral, speaking for the White House National

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Speaker 3: Security Apparatus earlier today on Good Morning America on ABC News.

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Speaker 11: We think there's about eight hostages that are Americans. We

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Speaker 11: know of at least one woman in that group. We're

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Speaker 11: doing everything we can to try to get them released.

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Speaker 11: We're constantly engaged with our partners in the region try

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Speaker 11: to get this humanitarian pause back in place.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 3: To give you a sense of where we are, Israel

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Speaker 3: is putting numbers on this because we keep asking. IDF

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Speaker 3: says it has killed half of Hamas's mid level commanders,

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Speaker 3: this at the cost of sixteen thousand, two hundred civilian

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Speaker 3: lives since the war began in Gaza. The Wall Street

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Speaker 3: Journal putting some other numbers on this today as well,

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Speaker 3: Remembering the IDF is vowing to destroy Hamas to ends

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Speaker 3: as we know it, and after many weeks of bombing

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Speaker 3: in over sixteen thousand civilian lives, the Wall Street Journal

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Speaker 3: reports that Hamas is still largely intact. At least five

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Speaker 3: thousand militants overall have been killed, leaving the majority of

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Speaker 3: the group's thirty thousand members on the field. Now, remembering

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Speaker 3: that the Biden administration is urging restraint, calling for more precision,

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Speaker 3: you're hearing it from lawmakers now, many of them Democrats,

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Speaker 3: on Capitol Hill. You wonder what's going to happen here

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Speaker 3: in southern Gaza, and that's why we wanted to talk

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Speaker 3: to David Deptula, the retired Lieutenant General, Air Force General

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Speaker 3: now dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, former

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Speaker 3: Air Force Deputy Chief for Intelligence, Surveillance and Resconnaissance. It's

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Speaker 3: good to see you, General, Thanks for coming to talk

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Speaker 3: to us. The calls for more precision have been in

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Speaker 3: many cases been followed by scenes of absolute destruction, dropping

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Speaker 3: bombs on apartment buildings and so forth. And with your

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Speaker 3: experience as an airman, I wonder if you can speak

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Speaker 3: to what ability Israel has to be more precise.

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Speaker 12: Well, Joe, first, a couple of things I think in

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Speaker 12: build up to a very good answer to your question

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Speaker 12: is it's important to recognize that the military operations being

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Speaker 12: conducted by the Israeli Defense Forces are being integrated across

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Speaker 12: all war fighting domains. That's air, sea, land, space and

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Speaker 12: cyber so it's a multi domain effort. Now, with respect

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Speaker 12: to air operations, air operations can be and generally are

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Speaker 12: extraordinarily precise. The issue is knowing what the targets are

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Speaker 12: to be affected and here's where while ground operations have

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Speaker 12: become more prominent, air operations need that information. So one

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Speaker 12: of the prime of the ground operations of the Israeli

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Speaker 12: Defense forces into Gaza is to gather intelligence about Hamas's tunnels, rockets,

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Speaker 12: command and control and so on and so forth that

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Speaker 12: can then be destroyed from the air. So both air

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Speaker 12: and ground operations are completely integrated. All of that said,

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Speaker 12: back to your lead in this is an urban environment,

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Speaker 12: so of course buildings are going to be destroyed as

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Speaker 12: part of the reason why the Israelis have gone to

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Speaker 12: a great length to advise occupants, civilian occupants to move

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Speaker 12: prior to their air strikes and then providing warnings additional

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Speaker 12: warnings prior to releasing the weapons. So it is a

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Speaker 12: very challenging situation. But I think it's also extraordinarily important

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Speaker 12: when one's discussing the subject of civilian cas to understand

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Speaker 12: the laws of armed conflict. And frankly, it is startling

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Speaker 12: to see the lack of understanding of those laws. And

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Speaker 12: on the other hand, perhaps it's not so startling as

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Speaker 12: a moss is engaged in what's called law fair or

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Speaker 12: the misuse of international laws is substitute for traditional military means.

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Speaker 12: So let me pause there, and because I could go

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Speaker 12: on for quite a while here, but we'll help.

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Speaker 3: It does help a lot, because look, you've got a

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Speaker 3: lot of people who have never served their country, who

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Speaker 3: have never flown a fighter jet like you have, and

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Speaker 3: have have never carried a rifle, who are acting like

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Speaker 3: experts here in Washington.

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Speaker 4: When you hear lawmakers say.

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Speaker 3: Hey, you need to cool it with the air attacks,

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Speaker 3: stop with the one hundred and fifty five millimeters shells,

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Speaker 3: send troops in to be more precise, what do you

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Speaker 3: say to them?

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Speaker 12: Yeah, oh, once again, I go back to the fact

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Speaker 12: that malign disinformation in manipulating perceptions is a fundamental element

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Speaker 12: of Hamas's strategy. They're using the fact that disinformation is

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Speaker 12: seventy percent more likely to be shared on social media

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Speaker 12: the news that's true. I think we saw this to

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Speaker 12: remind your audience. A good case in points to damage

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Speaker 12: to the Gaza hospital that was caused by a Palestinian

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Speaker 12: militant rocket that exploded over it. But it was they

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Speaker 12: all blame that as a cast it is in Israeli

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Speaker 12: an attack when it wasn't the other one. And to

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Speaker 12: be candid, I mean, right, up front, you cited the

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Speaker 12: sixteen thousand plus civilian casualties. Those numbers were released by

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Speaker 12: Hamas controlled organizations.

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Speaker 3: The health not do you not trust those numbers? What

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Speaker 3: you do not trust those numbers from the Gaza Health.

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Speaker 12: Ministry absolutely not, absolutely not. Note that those number members

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Speaker 12: do not separate deaths of Hamas or other terrorists in

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Speaker 12: those figures. So the impression given is that they're all innocence,

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Speaker 12: which and look, I don't I don't think anybody knows

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Speaker 12: because there is no independent source on the ground accounting

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Speaker 12: for those numbers. But you know they're treating Hamas deaths

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Speaker 12: as if they were part of that. And now let

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Speaker 12: me let me continue because this is extraordinarily important, but

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Speaker 12: it gets complex. People don't seem to understand that Hamas's

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Speaker 12: use of civilians is human see it shields, and they're

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Speaker 12: misuse of protected sites like mosques and hospitals or war crimes,

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Speaker 12: and that the international Laws of armed conflict put the

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Speaker 12: responsibility for the threat to civilian lives on those who

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Speaker 12: are putting those civilians in harms way in this case,

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Speaker 12: that's Hamas. Hamas intentionally aims to kill civilians.

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Speaker 3: To include policies understand that, and that's honestly general. That's

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Speaker 3: something that we have aired out extensively on this program.

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Speaker 3: But when you hear, I know you don't buy the

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Speaker 3: numbers from the Health Ministry, but that sixteen thousand number

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Speaker 3: includes five thousand children, presumably not Hamas militants. Maybe you've

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Speaker 3: got some folks in their teens. I don't know, but

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Speaker 3: there's obviously what some folks see as a disproportionate response here,

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Speaker 3: and I'm trying to get to the proportionate response in

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Speaker 3: your eyes.

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Speaker 12: Well, once again, you and I get it, and I

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Speaker 12: understand that. And by the way, I'm not taking you

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Speaker 12: or your network on and when I'm speaking about media,

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Speaker 12: I'm talking about media in general. There are some who

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Speaker 12: are better than others, of which you are better than

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Speaker 12: some of the others.

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Speaker 4: But well, there's that, I guess it.

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Speaker 12: The fact is war is a terrible thing, okay, And

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Speaker 12: anyone who thinks there's such a thing as you know,

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Speaker 12: immaculate warfare simply has never studied it. So yes, there

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Speaker 12: will be unfortunately collateral damage, unintentional civilian casualties. But again,

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Speaker 12: what you have to do is look at who's doing

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Speaker 12: what Hamas is intentionally using civilians as cover. That is

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Speaker 12: a war against humanity. At the same time, let me

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Speaker 12: speak to the other point. It's important to note that

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Speaker 12: even if Hamas uses human shields, Israel still bound by

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Speaker 12: this principle of proportionality, and they do have to take

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Speaker 12: all feasible precautions to minimize harm to civilian casualty or

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Speaker 12: to civilians, and they have a history of doing that.

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Speaker 12: But that does not mean that they cannot strike targets

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Speaker 12: because of the presence of those human shields.

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Speaker 3: While they're clearly going forward with that, and I realized

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Speaker 3: that you may not be able to separate them general,

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Speaker 3: I really appreciate the difficulty here. As civilians move, Hamas

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Speaker 3: follows them and embeds itself with them. And I realize

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Speaker 3: that there are no easy answers on this. But that's

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Speaker 3: why we wanted to bring you in. I have to

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Speaker 3: ask you about Ukraine while you're here, sir. The President's

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Speaker 3: talking about it today, and we are told that Ukraine

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Speaker 3: is out of time, not only out of money, but

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Speaker 3: out of time as we head into the winter here

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Speaker 3: without more support from the United States. How dire is

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Speaker 3: this situation as we head for the cold Well.

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Speaker 12: This is another one that's extraordinarily important, not just for

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Speaker 12: the Ukrainians protecting the sovereignty of their nation after having

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Speaker 12: been illegally invaded by the Russians, but it's also extraordinarily

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Speaker 12: important and is in the best interest of the citizenry

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Speaker 12: of the United States of America. Now, I just fortuitously

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Speaker 12: I met with the Ukrainian Defense Minister yesterday in a

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Speaker 12: small setting and had a discussion on this subject. And

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Speaker 12: you know, I won't go into any details except to

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Speaker 12: say that it is extraordinarily important at the United States

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Speaker 12: support the Ukrainians in their defense not only of their

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Speaker 12: own people, but in the peace loving and freedom embracing

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Speaker 12: nations of NATO, which includes the United States. They're spilling

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Speaker 12: the blood of their sons and daughters to defend their country,

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Speaker 12: but they're also defending the principles and the interests of

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Speaker 12: the United States so that we don't have to get

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Speaker 12: involved by sending our sons and daughters to fight against Putin.

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Speaker 12: So aid is extraordinarily important. Essentially, if you were given

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Speaker 12: the opportunity or the the proposition that you could bring

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Speaker 12: Russia to a halt of its aggression not just against Ukraine,

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Speaker 12: but anywhere in NATO for about four percent of the

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Speaker 12: military budget. Would you do it? That's a hell of

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Speaker 12: a good deal without any US men and women being

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Speaker 12: involved on the ground.

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Speaker 3: In pretty remarkable, and you have to think you go

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Speaker 3: back twenty years, every Republican on Capitol Hill would have

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Speaker 3: voted for that General. It's good to have you from

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Speaker 3: the cockpit of an F fifteen to our table here

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Speaker 3: on Bloomberg Sound On, General David Deptula.

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Speaker 4: Many thanks for the insights, sir.

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Speaker 3: It's good to have you back with us here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew and Washington the fastest show in politics.

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Speaker 3: My gosh, we haven't taken a break yet.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 3: We're going to assemble the panel because I'm sure they're

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Speaker 3: going to have strong feelings about everything we just heard

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Speaker 3: from Mick mulvaney to General Deptula.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Business App, or.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcast.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm

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Speaker 3: Joe Matthew, in Washington with a heck of a lot

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Speaker 3: to talk about here from the Capitol where we have

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Speaker 3: news the White House, and of course overseas Israel and

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Speaker 3: Ukraine all popping today with headlines on the terminal, and

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Speaker 3: we want to assemble our panel to get into everything

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Speaker 3: that we've heard over the last twenty five minutes. Lisa

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Speaker 3: Camuso Miller is with US Republican strategist, of course, former

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Speaker 3: spokesperson for the r n C and host of the

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Speaker 3: Friday Reporter podcast.

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Speaker 4: We're big fans of it around here.

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Speaker 3: Brad Howard's back to Democratic strategist, former spokesperson for the

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Speaker 3: Blue Dog Democrats. Great to see both of you, and

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Speaker 3: welcome Lisa. I'll start with you because the Republican Conference

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00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 3: in the House is something we've focused on a lot

442
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 3: with Mick mulvaney, one that Kevin McCarthy is running from,

443
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,919
Speaker 3: one that Patrick McHenry is running from.

444
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 4: Would you be running from it as well?

445
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 13: Hard to be successful there, Joe. It seems to me

446
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 13: like the other thing we have to probably consider too,

447
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 13: is that even though two months ago speak a former Speaker,

448
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 13: McCarthy said that he was staying that there was work

449
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 13: to be done, it's also really difficult to not be

450
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 13: in leadership anymore, step away from that and be just

451
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 13: a regular rank and file member and not have that

452
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 13: power that he had for so long worked for and

453
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 13: then had stripped away from him. So my suspicion is

454
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 13: that there probably is another really great job in the wings,

455
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 13: and there'll be more for him to report. Who knows,

456
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 13: But to me, I think more than anything, what we

457
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 13: all know to be true is being shown out in

458
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 13: the fact that these big, big retirements are happening, and

459
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 13: they're happening almost every day.

460
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 3: There are Democrats, of course leaving as well, but it

461
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 3: does seem to be a bit of a Republican story

462
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 3: at this point. It's an interesting situation that we're in here, Brad,

463
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,160
Speaker 3: and I wonder your thoughts on just what it means

464
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 3: for the Democratic Conference. There are only four seats away

465
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,880
Speaker 3: from taking control of the House. Does more of this

466
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 3: end up in a change in power in the House

467
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 3: of Representatives?

468
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 10: Well, let me say a couple of things. I think.

469
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 14: First, more broadly, you know, typically you can determine which

470
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 14: party thinks they're going to win control of Congress in

471
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 14: the next election judging by how many retire versus the

472
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:27,120
Speaker 14: other side.

473
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 10: It seems to me both sides are fed up.

474
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 14: This is the moment because you're seeing just about the

475
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 14: same a number of retirements on the Democratic side as

476
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 14: you are on the Republican side. And we've had Democrats,

477
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 14: you know, David Cicillini left mid term, Brian Higgins is

478
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:43,880
Speaker 14: leading in February's right as well, so you know, but

479
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 14: this is a big, big problem Speaker Johnson. What I

480
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 14: find kind of funny about Speaker McCarthy's announcement is he

481
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 14: doesn't have a job lined up.

482
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:52,880
Speaker 10: Whe he hasn't announced one yet.

483
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,199
Speaker 14: I suspect like, in a way this is his final

484
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 14: like job at the folks at Alston me because now

485
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 14: they've got to have a majority with two seats, and

486
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 14: then you know, if Bill Johnson leaves and then gets

487
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,439
Speaker 14: down to one seat, you know, at any moment a

488
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 14: procedure emotion, Democrats could win temporary control of the floor

489
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 14: with the right number of Republican absences.

490
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 10: So this is a big problem for Speaker Johnson.

491
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 14: How he's going to navigate probably one of the toughest

492
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 14: approbations battles we've seen in a while. In January and

493
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,959
Speaker 14: February with the new staggered cr and from there, and

494
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 14: so you know, this is a big, big problem with

495
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 14: their public majority. And I think you're just it's only

496
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 14: gonna get worse, and you're going to continue to see

497
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 14: more retirements or resignations as we're seeing.

498
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 4: Boy, that would be remarkable.

499
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 3: Lisa should the president today instead of calling on Congress

500
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 3: to pass Ukraine funding, just sent a message to Mike

501
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 3: Johnson saying.

502
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 4: You need me.

503
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 3: This majority is so thin now. Mike Johnson has to

504
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 3: know he needs Democrats to do anything.

505
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 4: Right.

506
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 13: Yes, I'm sure he does, but also too, I mean,

507
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 13: just based on his background and how he's performed so far,

508
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 13: he's doing everything he can to try to maintain that

509
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 13: power for the Republican majority. But Brad's point is so good, Joe.

510
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 13: This razor thin margin is going to get eaten slimmer

511
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 13: in February. Right, We've got Santos's seat will be hopefully

512
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 13: filed by or filled by mid February, but then that's

513
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 13: just a two seat majority for the Speaker, and then

514
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 13: with Higgins and Johnson, potentially by the end of February.

515
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 13: This is going to be For those of us who

516
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 13: are watching in the cheap seats. It's going to be

517
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 13: a show to watch, a show to.

518
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 3: Watch, and it might be a scary one. Brad, let's

519
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 3: run odds on this for a minute. With everything that

520
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 3: we're talking about here, the lack of a deal on

521
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 3: the border, I know some folks are more optimistic about this,

522
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 3: including Senator Langford who's leading the negotiations, knowing how many

523
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 3: legislative days are left and knowing that we're going into

524
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 3: a campaign cycle. Here, my goodness, you guys are talking

525
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 3: about what could be a one or two WHO seat majority.

526
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 3: We're not getting any of this done. Are we funding

527
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 3: for Ukraine? And to put it a built to avoid

528
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 3: a government shut down? None of that's going to happen.

529
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 10: To put this in full perspective, we were only four

530
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 10: full legislative.

531
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 14: Days between now and the next government shut down deadline four,

532
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 14: So you got flying and fly outs because we know

533
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 14: not much gets done on those.

534
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 10: So you're right.

535
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 14: I mean, this is a big, big concern. Thankfully, I

536
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 14: think everyone should enjoy what should be a relatively peaceful

537
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 14: holiday season legislatively because next year is going to be

538
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 14: probably one of the most tumultuous ever. Then you add

539
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 14: in the presidential election. But what I will say again

540
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 14: about Kevin McCarthy's departure is there's an image floating around.

541
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,479
Speaker 14: I don't know if everybody remembers the term young guns

542
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 14: that entered three young Republican leaders that were going to

543
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 14: lead the Republican majority, which was Eric. They're all gone,

544
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 14: b Ryan and Kevin McCarthy, and now they're all gone.

545
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 14: But this was like the future of the Republican Party.

546
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 14: And I think this is a pivotal moment for the

547
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 14: future of the Republican Party because you're starting to see

548
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 14: this big divide between the grassroots of the party, the

549
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 14: grassroots voters and the people that kind of come in

550
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 14: and out every now and then, they're not in the

551
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 14: everyday moment of politics, a big divide between that and

552
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 14: the establishment that's funded by Sheldon Agelson the super PACs.

553
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 14: So like how the Republicans negotiate, there very tough dynamic

554
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 14: is going to be a big challenge for them.

555
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 3: We've got a great conversation going with our panel Brad

556
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 3: Howard and Lisa Camuso Miller. If you're just joining us,

557
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew and Washington. I want to ask you

558
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 3: both about what we heard from General Deptula, because he

559
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,719
Speaker 3: was strident today and clearly does not think that lawmakers

560
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 3: or progressive critics of what's happening in Israel have any

561
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 3: idea of what they're talking about. He doesn't trust the

562
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 3: numbers from Gaza and Lisa. I wonder how you see

563
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 3: this impacting in Washington here, because the presidents received a

564
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,959
Speaker 3: lot of criticism for supporting this war in Israel.

565
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 4: Progressives are upset with him.

566
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,479
Speaker 3: We know that Arab American voters and Muslim American voters

567
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 3: are both upset with him. But does the General have

568
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 3: a point about this armchair quarterbacking from here in Washington.

569
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 13: Yes, I think he does. I mean, I think, more

570
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 13: than anything that I've said it before, and I'll continue

571
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 13: to say it, a stable Middle East and a stable

572
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 13: Europe is to the benefit of a stable United States.

573
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 13: And so I think, with my limited experience and understanding

574
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 13: of how this all works, is that we need to

575
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 13: follow the generals. We need to follow the leaders, the

576
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 13: folks that know about what needs to happen there. Do

577
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 13: I think that all kinds of stories and false information

578
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 13: is happening. Absolutely, I think we need to listen to

579
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 13: the generals on the ground and do what we can

580
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 13: to support them. And the more that we sit back

581
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 13: and play games and politics with support for our allies,

582
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 13: to me, doesn't make very good sense, not only for

583
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 13: the war effort, but also for our stable United States.

584
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 3: We should take on this, Brad. The President needs to

585
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 3: have a concerted message when it comes to this criticism.

586
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 3: He's certainly sending one to Israel. What should be the

587
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 3: message to his critics on Israel? After what you just

588
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 3: heard from the General? Do you disagree with what he said?

589
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 10: No?

590
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 14: I mean, I honestly, I don't understand why anybody would

591
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 14: believe anything Hamas says when they again lied and used

592
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 14: you know, the Palastini people as you know, human shields

593
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 14: from bombings and attacks, and we're forced like preventing them

594
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 14: from leaving and fleeing you know, war zones. But that aside,

595
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 14: I think the President of the White House had four big

596
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 14: like issues they have to deal with with this war,

597
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 14: which is going to consume probably the remainder of his

598
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 14: first term.

599
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 10: The number one is you've got to win the war.

600
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 14: And you know, I don't think you'll ever fully be

601
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 14: able to get rid of Hamas, but to really, you know,

602
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 14: decimate them. I think that's that party number one. But

603
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 14: beyond that, you've got Israel standing in the world. That's

604
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 14: going to be a big problem for Blincoln and Secretary

605
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 14: of State to fix and the president as you know this,

606
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 14: this has really kind of divided the world about how

607
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 14: to deal with the issue of Israel. And then back home,

608
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 14: the president has two big problems domestically. Number one is

609
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 14: how do you combat the anti Semitism that has exploded

610
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 14: in the open across the US. And Number two, and

611
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 14: that is in both parties, but we're starting to see

612
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 14: it from the very progressive left and in college campuses.

613
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 14: I think number two, how do you fix the political

614
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 14: problem the fact.

615
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 10: That young voters, particularly.

616
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 14: Young progressive voters, are skeptical of the President's commitment to

617
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 14: Israel or questioning that commitment, And so he's got to

618
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 14: win those They're not going to go to Trump necessarily,

619
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 14: but they may just get out of the process altogether

620
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 14: or get behind a third party.

621
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 10: So he's got a lot of problems to fix here

622
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 10: and address. And I feel confident that he's doing.

623
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 14: The right things both militarily and diplomatically, but how do

624
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 14: you address this very complex political problem is going to

625
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 14: be a tough one.

626
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 3: With a lot of noise out there. I've got less

627
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 3: than a minute, Lisa. Is this a Republican problem too,

628
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 3: or one for Joe Biden only?

629
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 13: Well, it certainly seems to be that that's where the

630
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 13: buck will stop with the White House, and so the

631
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,160
Speaker 13: White House I think probably has the burden here. You know,

632
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 13: there's a lot of blame to go around Joe, There's

633
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 13: a lot of game playing in the House in terms

634
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 13: of funding. There's a lot of other voices that are

635
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 13: out there, and let's be fair. I mean, the former

636
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 13: president started a big He opened a chasm in the

637
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 13: unhappiness and the ability for people to criticize other groups

638
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 13: in a way that has I think opened a door

639
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 13: to the anti semitism that we've heard all across the globe.

640
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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646
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Speaker 3: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound on. I'm Joe

647
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 3: Matthew in Washington. Charlie's patented double point kicks us off

648
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 3: for the hour. Find us on YouTube. You would have

649
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 3: seen Brad Howard's yule log burning for that whole last hour.

650
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 3: Search Bloomberg Global News. We'll meet you here in the studio.

651
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 3: You never call, you never write, I was lamenting. Well,

652
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 3: it's largely true. She texted a couple of times. You

653
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 3: deserve credit for that. I hope you had a lovely trip.

654
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 3: Welcome back to the nation's capital.

655
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 7: Thank you.

656
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:17,479
Speaker 3: Of course, I'm referring to the great Kaylee Lions, who's

657
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 3: back with us today. People are getting tired of hearing

658
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 3: me talk. So great to see you. Welcome back. You

659
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 3: came back just in time for a whole bunch of breakers.

660
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 3: Yeah you come back. Kevin McCarthy leaves. I don't know

661
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,320
Speaker 3: if those are connected, but you were up there on

662
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 3: the hill earlier today. It was kind of a weird

663
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 3: feeling in the air, and.

664
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 15: Yeah, it was quiet, it was cold outside. It was

665
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 15: kind of doing a weird rain snow thing.

666
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 3: And is reality setting in that actually nothing's going to

667
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 3: get done this year or next.

668
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 15: It felt a little bit bleak. To be honest, A

669
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 15: number of people just didn't really feel like talking to me,

670
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 15: and perhaps it was because they didn't have much good

671
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 15: or positive to say, as it feels like there is

672
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 15: very much not a lot happening on Capitol Hill, even

673
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 15: if we're going to see a vote in the Senate

674
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 15: later today on something that is very likely going to fail,

675
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 15: or they.

676
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 3: Had abandonment complex or that like I did with Kaylee

677
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 3: gone either way, Joe Biden's losing patience Kaylee. He actually

678
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 3: spoke from the White House earlier today telling everybody to

679
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 3: get with it. This isn't the vote, but there's an

680
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 3: important test vote, if we can call it that in

681
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 3: the Senate on Ukraine. Let's hear from the President a

682
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 3: bit earlier the message let's get moving.

683
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 5: This cannot wait. Congress needs to pass supplemental funding for

684
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 5: Ukraine before they break for the holiday. Resources as simple

685
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 5: as that. Frank, I think it's stunning that we've gotten

686
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 5: to this point in the first place. Well, Congress, Republic

687
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,320
Speaker 5: and congress as are willing to give putin the greatest

688
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 5: gift he could hope for and abandon our global leadership,

689
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 5: not just Ukraine.

690
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 10: But beyond that.

691
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 3: The problem is that vote's going to fail and there

692
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 3: doesn't seem to be a path for this in any form.

693
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,280
Speaker 3: Senate and houseton't agree. President, unlikely they get the combined

694
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 3: money he's asking for. And look, not a lot has

695
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 3: changed since you've left. In reality, we're still talking about

696
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 3: this hinging on a border deal that has yet to emerge.

697
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,800
Speaker 15: Yeah, exactly, And even the Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell,

698
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 15: who very much wants additional Ukraine funding, has made it

699
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 15: tied to the border issue, and it feels like it's

700
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 15: just a lot of pieces of a puzzle and no

701
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 15: one's having much success success and putting it together. Thinking

702
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 15: we might be against a clock here by your end.

703
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 15: Unclear whether or not that happens. But come the end

704
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,320
Speaker 15: of the year and the start of the next one, Joe,

705
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 15: that was just going to look a little different. The

706
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 15: Republicans are actually going to be working with a smaller

707
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 15: majority because Kevin McCarthy will be gone.

708
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,600
Speaker 3: If you do the math, mcmuvaney was talking to us

709
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 3: as well. Watch Bill Johnson. We could be in a

710
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 3: world where there's like a two or three c majority.

711
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 10: Yeah.

712
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 4: By February March. I don't know how this is.

713
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 15: I don't and we already thought things were difficult to pass.

714
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 4: I was feeling optimistic. Yesterday.

715
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 3: We had Rick Davis and Jim Casler. They kept saying, Joe,

716
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 3: it's darkest before dawn. All this crazy talk you're hearing

717
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 3: no one can agree means they're probably on the verge

718
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 3: of a deal. Then I woke up this morning. I

719
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 3: don't feel that way anymore, and I think they're lying

720
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:05,919
Speaker 3: to me. Maybe Terry can help me out here, Terry

721
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 3: will talk me in off the ledge.

722
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 4: Terry Hayes. Of course, Pangaea policy is with us live

723
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 4: from Washington. Now, Terry, what's your thought? Glass? Half full?

724
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 4: Half empty?

725
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 16: Here?

726
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 4: Who do you believe?

727
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:20,359
Speaker 3: Because with everything that I've been hearing since this morning,

728
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 3: I'm feeling like nothing gets past this year. We're going

729
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 3: to shut down Ukraine's not going to get any money.

730
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 3: Nothing can happen in this Congress?

731
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 1: Can it?

732
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 17: On this? Sure? But two things have to happen. First,

733
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 17: this vote this afternoon, and the Senate has to fail.

734
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 17: Because that's necessary for a lot of people, including Democratic

735
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 17: Leader Schumer, to be able to turn to their colleagues

736
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,360
Speaker 17: and say, now, see we can't get this done without

737
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 17: doing something serious on border security, otherwise it doesn't happen.

738
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,479
Speaker 17: And I can tell you from talking to a number

739
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 17: of Republicans, including a couple of Senators, over the past

740
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 17: few days, the way we're Publicans see this is very simple.

741
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 17: You're either going to get You're either going to have

742
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 17: something on border, in which case AID gets done. But

743
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 17: if the Democrats aren't willing to deal on border in

744
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 17: some substantial way to improve the border, then you know,

745
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 17: very likely nothing's going to happen for a while. And

746
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 17: Republicans feel like they have the politics on their side,

747
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 17: of course, and they also feel like they have the

748
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 17: public with them because you know, you can, you know,

749
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 17: you can pull any pull out of your pocket and

750
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 17: say show that three quarters to eight tenths of the

751
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 17: American public agree that the border is a terrible problem

752
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 17: and something needs to be done about it. So this

753
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 17: is a matter of the sooner Democrats figure out they

754
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,399
Speaker 17: need to do something on the border, and a lot

755
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 17: of them are talking about this. Even a progressive like

756
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 17: Peter Welch, a very thoughtful guy, has been talking about

757
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 17: the need to do something substantial on the border. So

758
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 17: the sooner they get to that, the sooner you actually

759
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:56,280
Speaker 17: get a deal.

760
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,040
Speaker 15: Terry, does that actually have to be driven though not

761
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 15: by Democrats in the Senate or in the House, but

762
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 15: the White House. As you say, the border is a

763
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 15: sensitive political issue. We have voters that are going to

764
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:08,919
Speaker 15: be heading to the polls in less than a year

765
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 15: to vote for who they would like to be president

766
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 15: of the United States. Is it Biden that needs to

767
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 15: be more deeply engaged in this.

768
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 17: Well, Biden certainly put this on the table first, Kayleie,

769
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 17: and I'm glad you put it this way. Let's remember

770
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 17: this is the president's construct. It's the president that said,

771
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 17: and the White House continues to repeat, Admiral Kirby particularly

772
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 17: repeat that you know what they want is they want Israel,

773
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 17: a Ukraine, a they want the Indo Pacific Aid as

774
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 17: they call it, and they want and they want something

775
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 17: on the border as well. So this is the president's construct,

776
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 17: whether whether Democrats like it or not. Number one. Number two,

777
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 17: what I'd say about the President very simply is that

778
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 17: he's got little to no political capital to achieve anything.

779
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 17: You know what the White House and the White House

780
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 17: actually shows you this what they like to do is

781
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 17: you know kind of issue the thunderbolts from on high,

782
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 17: as Biden did most recently on the need to get

783
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 17: something done on Ukraine. Well, you know, if you know,

784
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 17: I can hear the Republican response in my head, which is,

785
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 17: you know, if you'd actually sent the weapons on time,

786
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 17: if you'd actually you know, told us with some more

787
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 17: alacrity that we needed aid, you know, as soon as possible,

788
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 17: rather than just asking for it as part of a package,

789
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,720
Speaker 17: maybe we'd be in a little bit of a different place.

790
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,760
Speaker 17: But they're not, and he's not. But he's not really

791
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,759
Speaker 17: able to move the needle on this. This is going

792
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 17: to be much more up to Leader Schumer than anybody else.

793
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 3: Well, so, Terry, what's the lightning bolt that unlocks a

794
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 3: deal on the border. And I know that's an impossible

795
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 3: question really to answer. We've been trying to do this

796
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 3: for twenty or thirty years. But you know, we keep

797
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 3: hearing that Democrats are open to changes in asylum law,

798
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 3: that there actually is more progress and there's more common

799
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 3: ground than we think there is, because they'd all love

800
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 3: to campaign on this next year, is the fact. But

801
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 3: when you have Mike Johnson saying take HR two or nothing,

802
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 3: we can't see to get out of the blocks here.

803
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 17: What do you think, Well, we're in the uh, we're

804
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 17: we're in the ask for too much uh phase of

805
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 17: these negotiations. But then, you know, and in part there's

806
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 17: I think a lack of communication going on here. Republicans

807
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:16,719
Speaker 17: continue to ask for too much in h R two

808
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 17: is you know, from a political perspective, from a deal

809
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 17: making perspective, certainly too much. But the you know, the

810
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 17: Republicans keep asking for that in part because they feel

811
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 17: like they're not getting enough enough signal from the Democratic side.

812
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 17: Democratic side says they're being open, but but then again

813
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 17: aren't really putting specifics on the table.

814
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 11: Uh.

815
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 17: So you know, I point to this as as you

816
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,319
Speaker 17: did in the previous hour. I point to the test

817
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 17: vote this afternoon, this evening in the Senate as the

818
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 17: as a forcing event that allows Democratic leadership to say, look,

819
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 17: we need to get serious on this if we're going

820
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 17: to get something done, and also allows McConnell, because you know,

821
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 17: this is gonna this is a Senate game much more

822
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 17: than a house game. Allows mcconnald to also say to

823
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 17: his people, look, and now the time's come to get serious.

824
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:06,439
Speaker 17: Let's get serious and get the best we can get

825
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 17: by all means. Let's get something, not just money, but

826
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 17: also let's get let's get some substantive improvements.

827
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 11: You know.

828
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 17: But we've got two more weeks after this one and

829
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:19,399
Speaker 17: we're pretty much done. So let's figure this out. And

830
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 17: you know, the parties, whatever else you can say about

831
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,959
Speaker 17: the parties, they've been sitting here for ten years doing

832
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 17: nothing on border and immigration issues, and it's about time,

833
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 17: you know. So they know, they know their limits, they

834
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,960
Speaker 17: know what they can do, and if there's willingness on

835
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:36,360
Speaker 17: the Democratic side, I think I think you'll see some

836
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 17: joining hands in the end. I called this at the

837
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 17: beginning of the week is about a seventy percent likelihood

838
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 17: to get done before Christmas. I'll stick with that today, all.

839
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 15: Right, Terry, fair enough, that's the probability of something happening

840
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 15: before the Christmas New Year holiday. Speaking of the New Year,

841
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 15: as Joe and I were chatting about earlier, come the

842
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 15: new year, there will be one less member of the

843
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,959
Speaker 15: Republican Conference, and it happens to be a former speed

844
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 15: first who has ever ousted Kevin McCarthy. Today he says

845
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 15: I'm done. He actually released a video announcement from that,

846
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 15: let's just take a listen.

847
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 6: Now it is time to pursue my passion in a

848
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 6: new arena. Well, I'll be departing the house at the

849
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 6: end of this year. I will never ever give up

850
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,400
Speaker 6: fighting for this country that I love so much.

851
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 7: To all those who have supported me through the years.

852
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 6: Especially our constituents, thank you from the bottom of my heart.

853
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 15: So thank you.

854
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 4: Good choice of music, you like that, it's quite a campaign.

855
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 3: Just stick and yeah, did you hear the mic drop?

856
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 3: You see the mic drop at the end here, Kerry,

857
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 3: I don't know how you feel about this. You know,

858
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 3: I've got we have these big, beautiful mics that make

859
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 3: a racket if we'd be very dramatic, can you do

860
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 3: that with a lava leer?

861
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:52,879
Speaker 4: And he takes it off the.

862
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 6: Here, thank you, God bless you and God bless America.

863
00:43:58,760 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 4: Here we go.

864
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 10: That's a rap.

865
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:03,320
Speaker 8: Clunk.

866
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 3: He throws the mic on the floor and he almost

867
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 3: couldn't hear it nor a lot of electraumaticacy.

868
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 15: Well, Terry, that's a wrap for Kevin McCarthy. I don't

869
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 15: know if you find that surprising. But of course this

870
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 15: follows Patrick McHenry saying he wasn't gonna run again. There's

871
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 15: been a series of these kinds of announcements. What do

872
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 15: all of them together say to you?

873
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 17: A couple of things. Well, you know, the let me

874
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 17: say briefly about uh mister McCarthy that uh, you know,

875
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 17: his what he'll be remembered for, in addition to the speakership,

876
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 17: is he'll be remembered for, uh for being a major

877
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 17: uh a major fundraiser for the party. Uh, you know,

878
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 17: as uh mc mulvaney pointed out in the last hour.

879
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 17: And secondly, he'll be uh, he'll he'll be remembered as

880
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 17: a as a serious recruiter. I mean, somebody who you know,

881
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 17: really helped Republicans come back, get a majority and maintain

882
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 17: a majority for a lot longer than a lot more

883
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 17: people I thought they would. So, you know, he's had

884
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 17: a successful political career regardless of what he does next.

885
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 17: You know what I think about this is, you know,

886
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 17: let's remember instead of thinking about, you know, what's happening today,

887
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:15,399
Speaker 17: let's remember what we were talking about a month ago.

888
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 17: What we were talking about a month ago was Congress's

889
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 17: inability to deal with, among other things, a a looming

890
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 17: fiscal crisis that you know, regardless of how the bond

891
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 17: market has responded in the past couple of weeks, it's

892
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 17: still it's still a fiscal crisis. Markets are still concerned

893
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 17: about it. Debt's out of control, deficits out of control.

894
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 17: That's very much the perception fiscal is uh, you know,

895
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 17: a fiscal spend is rising and you know, perceived to

896
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 17: be endless. So what you have, what I see in

897
00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 17: all this is, you know, frankly, a bunch of people

898
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 17: who are you know, the good people are tired of

899
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 17: on both sides, who are tired of beating their heads

900
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 17: against the wall. Uh. But I see ah in the

901
00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:01,280
Speaker 17: increasing irrelevance of Congress in the House, and that's that's

902
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 17: not a happy thing for me to say. But but

903
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 17: but it's true. I think you get an awful lot

904
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 17: of people who are concluding that they could do more

905
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 17: and be better off in all senses being outside the

906
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 17: institution of rather than being inside of it. And I

907
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 17: think that's a bad thing. It's also a bad thing

908
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:23,720
Speaker 17: when you get people like Patrick McHenry, who, among other things,

909
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 17: you know, everybody understands this now, you kind of started

910
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,719
Speaker 17: as a firebrand, reinvented himself as a as a substantive

911
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 17: legislator with respect for the other side and a desire

912
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 17: to kind of do deals and move the ball forward.

913
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:40,280
Speaker 17: You know, you get somebody like like mister McHenry leaving.

914
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 17: What you have is, you know, you're abandoning the place

915
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:47,239
Speaker 17: to kind of more of the firebrands, more of the

916
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 17: people who think it's all about Team Red, team Blue exclusively,

917
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 17: and and you know, frankly, there's a It accentuates the

918
00:46:56,480 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 17: divergence between the reletively increasing irrelevant of Washington and you know,

919
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,799
Speaker 17: compared to the kinds of things that the markets are

920
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 17: concerned about politically and geopolitically, which are very, very fundamental.

921
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 17: The inability of Congress to deal with this stuff is

922
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:15,439
Speaker 17: reaching a breaking point, and I think that's a bad thing.

923
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 3: Well, Terry, we're out of time. But you can't blame them, right,

924
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,280
Speaker 3: Do you blame Kevin McCarthy or Patrick McHenry?

925
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 4: Wouldn't you do the same thing?

926
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 17: Heavens no, Heavens no. You know, both have served for

927
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 17: nearly twenty years, and you know, I'm all in favor

928
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 17: of fresh blood, but these were people, in a lot

929
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 17: of ways that were still very much the top of

930
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:37,839
Speaker 17: their games, So I'm sad.

931
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 4: I'm sad from that perspective, Hayley.

932
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 3: Terry Haynes says of benditting the place of the firebrands,

933
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 3: that maybe we can also say the inmates are running

934
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 3: the asylum.

935
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 1: I don't know.

936
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 4: I think that might be the same, Terry. Great to

937
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 4: see you.

938
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

939
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on blue Berg Radio,

940
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 1: the tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg

941
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 1: Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

942
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play

943
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:11,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.

944
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 3: They're still talking about the hearing, not the bank CEOs today,

945
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 3: but the college presidents yesterday. We spent some time on this,

946
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 3: but twenty four hours later, Kaylee, I feel like this

947
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 3: has become actually a bigger story. The presidents of Harvard

948
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:34,280
Speaker 3: mit UPenn grilled on anti Semitism and free speech on campus,

949
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 3: and it really seems to have come down to one

950
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 3: exchange in particular, at least Dephonic, though looming large in

951
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 3: that hearing, A lot of folks learned about her yesterday.

952
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 3: A lot of folks learned that she went to Harvard. Yes,

953
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 3: and I think she just kind of popped up on

954
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 3: a lot of people's radars with some very difficult back

955
00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 3: and forth here with these presidents.

956
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 15: With each one essentially asking them the very same question,

957
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 15: and it has ignited on social media. I think it's

958
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:02,320
Speaker 15: fair to say, Joe.

959
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, this is a somewhat extended but I

960
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 3: feel like we need to play the whole thing.

961
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 4: This is not edited at all.

962
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 3: Representatively Stephonic of course, a Republican member of the leadership

963
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 3: talking with Liz McGill, the president of you Penn.

964
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 18: Here we go at Penn.

965
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 19: Does calling for the genocide of Jews violate Pen's rules

966
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:22,360
Speaker 19: or code of conduct?

967
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 18: Yes?

968
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 19: Or no?

969
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 18: If the speech turns into conduct, it can be harassment.

970
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 19: Yes, I am asking specifically calling for the genocide of Jews?

971
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 19: Does that constitute bullying harassment?

972
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 18: If it is directed and severer pervasive, it is harassment.

973
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 19: So the answer is yes.

974
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 18: It is a context dependent decision. Congresswoman.

975
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:51,720
Speaker 19: It's a context dependent decision. That's your testimony today. Calling

976
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:54,919
Speaker 19: for the genocide of Jews is, depending upon the context,

977
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,920
Speaker 19: that is not bullying or harassment. This is the easiest

978
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:04,200
Speaker 19: question to ans answer yes, miss McGill. So is your

979
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 19: testimony that you will not answer yes.

980
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 18: If it is, or if the speech becomes conduct it

981
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 18: can be harassment.

982
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 19: Yes, conduct meaning committing the act of genocide. The speech

983
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:21,840
Speaker 19: is not harassment. This is unacceptabless MacGill. I'm going to

984
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 19: give you one more opportunity for the world to see

985
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 19: your answer. Does calling for the genocide of Jews violate

986
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 19: pens Code of conduct when it comes to bullying and harassment? Yes?

987
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 19: Or no.

988
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:39,279
Speaker 18: It can be harassment.

989
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:41,040
Speaker 19: The answer is yes.

990
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 4: Just a tortured exchange.

991
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:47,360
Speaker 3: She had a very similar one, in fact, with the

992
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 3: president of Harvard as well, Claudine Gay. Look at Bill

993
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 3: Ackman's tweet. I just got a call from one of

994
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:57,359
Speaker 3: Harvard's most respected and generous alums. His first words were,

995
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:01,080
Speaker 3: Bill promised me it was a deep fake. It was not, Kayley,

996
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:02,120
Speaker 3: it was not.

997
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 15: And Bill Lackman is not the only well known Wall

998
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:09,000
Speaker 15: Street Titan who has come out Major Domo had very

999
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 15: harsh words for the presidents of these universities.

1000
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's pretty amazing, and so we're kind of balancing

1001
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 3: this idea of free speech and hate speech and a

1002
00:51:18,120 --> 00:51:21,440
Speaker 3: conversation that we were looking forward to having with John Pushinsky,

1003
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 3: Adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Pittsburgh, an

1004
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:28,400
Speaker 3: expert in First Amendment and campus lad just the person

1005
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:31,799
Speaker 3: we need here. Professor, I appreciate your joining us. I'm

1006
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:34,759
Speaker 3: sure you have strong feelings about what we heard yesterday here,

1007
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 3: But my goodness, couldn't these college presidents have been better prepared.

1008
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 16: It sounded to me like they were prepared. But I

1009
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 16: was thinking listening to the exchange and the excerpts I

1010
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 16: heard yesterday, is that represented that Stefanic has very little

1011
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 16: understanding of what the First Amendment means and what it protects.

1012
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:02,799
Speaker 15: Okay, So John, help us make that distinction. When we're

1013
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:05,760
Speaker 15: thinking about First Amendment rights, the right to free speech,

1014
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 15: where is the line?

1015
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 16: First of all, it's important emphasized that the advocacy as

1016
00:52:14,760 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 16: an academic proposition or as an individual preference of any

1017
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:28,840
Speaker 16: particular group, no matter how abhorrent that advocacy may be,

1018
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:35,319
Speaker 16: is protected speech under the First Amendment. According to a

1019
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 16: long line of Supreme Court cases, the line drawn between

1020
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:48,400
Speaker 16: protected speech and unprotected speech is when the speech becomes

1021
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 16: a true threat, and that means that there has to

1022
00:52:53,080 --> 00:53:01,799
Speaker 16: be advocacy to in sight or produce imminent lawless action. So,

1023
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 16: in other words, in the nineteen forties, in the nineteen fifties,

1024
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:14,480
Speaker 16: there may have been campus discussions about whether worldwide revolution

1025
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 16: was something that people should work towards, and the discussions

1026
00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 16: of overthrowing governments, even by violent means, was deemed to

1027
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:35,480
Speaker 16: be protected because it's only people exploring and discussing what

1028
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 16: they believe, as opposed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action.

1029
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 16: When I teach my First Amendment class, I invite the

1030
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 16: students to think about President Trump standing in front of

1031
00:53:56,880 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 16: the Capitol or away from the Capitol on the mall,

1032
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:08,000
Speaker 16: telling people, you know, let's go stop the steal, go

1033
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 16: to the Capitol. Whether that is just advocacy or whether

1034
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:19,840
Speaker 16: there was really an incitement to produce imminent lawless action,

1035
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:27,040
Speaker 16: which is the legal line to be drawn. The tough

1036
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 16: problem that a lot of the universities have is that

1037
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:37,240
Speaker 16: there is also a federal statute in this Title six

1038
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:45,399
Speaker 16: that prohibits discrimination on the number of bases, including religion,

1039
00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 16: from programs or activities receiving federal financial assistance. So they

1040
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:58,840
Speaker 16: may have statutory duties feather separate and apart from First

1041
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 16: Amendment responsibilities. Also, we should know that the three schools

1042
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 16: who spoke at Congress yesterday, pen, Harvard, and MIT are

1043
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 16: all private universities, in the First Amendment doesn't apply.

1044
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:19,359
Speaker 3: That's where I want to get to with you here,

1045
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:21,759
Speaker 3: because I appreciate the point that you're making, Professor, and

1046
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:24,600
Speaker 3: I apologize for interrupting. You could probably kick me out

1047
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:27,760
Speaker 3: of your class for that. But look, these are presidents

1048
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:31,160
Speaker 3: of private universities talking about their code of conduct right

1049
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 3: their code of ethics here in a congressional hearing. Why

1050
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 3: seek nuance in that case? Why not give them a

1051
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 3: yes or no? This is what people think is wrong

1052
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 3: with these universities.

1053
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 16: Well, because the terms that were being bandied a belt

1054
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 16: don't have definitions that everybody understands the same way. I've

1055
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 16: had debates with people as to what genocide means, and

1056
00:55:55,760 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 16: there are a lot of people who attach definitions different

1057
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 16: than a un definition of genocide. We heard Representative Stephanic

1058
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:09,240
Speaker 16: or others use the term hate speech, But what does

1059
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:12,799
Speaker 16: that mean? If I say I don't like you and

1060
00:56:12,920 --> 00:56:17,400
Speaker 16: you don't belong in my neighborhood, is that hate speech? Now,

1061
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 16: universities have the right to create codes of conduct, but

1062
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:30,800
Speaker 16: they are also academic institutions that traditionally believe in debate

1063
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:36,680
Speaker 16: exploration of ideas. And the fear that I have is

1064
00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:42,759
Speaker 16: that if you prohibit certain speech and certain ideas, you

1065
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 16: don't stop those ideas. You don't stop that speech, you

1066
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:52,400
Speaker 16: drive it underground where you have much less control over

1067
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:55,759
Speaker 16: it than when it's out in the open. I mean,

1068
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 16: just as Holmes on the Supreme Court taught us that

1069
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 16: the way to fight bad speech is to counter with

1070
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 16: good speech.

1071
00:57:06,640 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 15: So, Professor, if I'm understanding you correctly, when you're actually

1072
00:57:09,680 --> 00:57:12,880
Speaker 15: looking at the legal matters here, the difficulty in assigning

1073
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 15: specific definitions to a lot of this language, you actually

1074
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 15: think that these college presidents are approaching this in the

1075
00:57:21,360 --> 00:57:24,280
Speaker 15: right way, at least from a legal standpoint. You don't

1076
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 15: see much wrong here.

1077
00:57:27,000 --> 00:57:30,720
Speaker 16: Well, I'm not sure how. I'm not very familiar with

1078
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 16: what's happening on each of the three campuses, so I

1079
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:38,880
Speaker 16: believed that I can comment on whether they are approaching

1080
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:46,160
Speaker 16: what's happening on their campuses correctly. If there are actual

1081
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 16: threats against individuals, or if people are being intimidated, then

1082
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:57,600
Speaker 16: the universities may have an affirmative duty to take correct

1083
00:57:57,600 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 16: of action.

1084
00:58:01,720 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 3: Well, Professor, I don't know what's going to come of

1085
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 3: that hearing yesterday, but it seems to me that lawmakers

1086
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 3: can do whatever they want. And it's really money that

1087
00:58:09,880 --> 00:58:13,440
Speaker 3: we're talking about here in donations. Those folks like Bill Ackman,

1088
00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 3: who we mentioned a Mitt Romney, who are protesting now

1089
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:20,080
Speaker 3: giving a dollar instead of thousands or a million dollars

1090
00:58:20,160 --> 00:58:23,680
Speaker 3: to these schools might in fact affect change. You might

1091
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:25,680
Speaker 3: not want to answer this, but do you think all

1092
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Speaker 3: three of these presidents will still have their jobs a

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00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:28,840
Speaker 3: year from now?

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00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 16: I don't. It's not questioned whether I want to answer.

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00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:37,200
Speaker 16: I don't know what the answer is. But I do

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00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:42,400
Speaker 16: believe that those who withhold donations because they're not happy

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00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:47,000
Speaker 16: with what's happening are exercising their First Amendment rights to

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00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:52,040
Speaker 16: express their displeasure with the way the university presidents have

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00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 16: handled the situation, and that might maybe they bring us

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00:58:57,320 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 16: just means of affecting change. One thing that I am

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00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 16: concerned about when I hear calls for expelling students or

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00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:19,480
Speaker 16: from suspending students for exercising an unpopular opinion or view,

1103
00:59:20,200 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 16: is that it doesn't really solve anything. What I believe

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00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 16: the more appropriate way to respond would be for the

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00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:37,000
Speaker 16: universities to create teaching moments, and if someone has violated

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00:59:37,160 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 16: the code of conduct through speech or through participation in

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00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 16: a demonstration where no one is really threatened, or where

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00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:53,439
Speaker 16: there is no incitement to imminent modeless action, it might

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00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 16: be more productive to have a teaching moment with that

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00:59:59,680 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 16: student them to have the students study actual history, to

1111
01:00:05,560 --> 01:00:10,600
Speaker 16: write a paper on the issue of what was to

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01:00:10,640 --> 01:00:14,760
Speaker 16: be done by the world with the Jews after the Holocaust,

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01:00:15,040 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 16: who had no place to go without the thread of

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01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 16: being killed apart from their traditional historic.

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Speaker 4: Come professor, we appreciate your weighing in on this.

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01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:29,880
Speaker 3: There are obviously no easy answers here, and that's why

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01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:33,960
Speaker 3: we appreciate your trying to answer them. John Prashinsky, Adjunct

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01:00:33,960 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 3: Professor of Laya University of Pittsburgh with.

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01:00:36,480 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 4: Us here on Bloomberg sound On. We thank you for joining, sir,

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01:00:40,680 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast.

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01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:45,760
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01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:51,280
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