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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a seconds.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by the Fan

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Speaker 3: Duels sportsbook Brendan Glasheen, joined today by Billy Ward and

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Speaker 3: Dan stupp In for Shanzillo. You know what that means.

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Speaker 3: UFC Betting Preview. We are back in Las Vegas. UFC

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Speaker 3: Vegas seventy five going down this weekend from the eight

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Speaker 3: PEC Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Twelve fights, six on

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Speaker 3: the main card, six prelims. If you are familiar with

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Speaker 3: the podcast, you know the drill. If you're not, we

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Speaker 3: break down the main event. We also preview the fight

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Speaker 3: of the night, sometimes the co Maine underdogs, favorite props,

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Speaker 3: and then the best bet for the guys, and then

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Speaker 3: we get in and get out.

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Speaker 1: So thanks for stopping by.

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Speaker 3: If you are a regular listener to our UFC betting previews.

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Speaker 1: This weekend's Action.

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Speaker 3: Like I said, taking place at the Apex Facility. The

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Speaker 3: prelims are available on ESPN. Two main card airs on

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Speaker 3: ESPN ten Eastern, and of course if you have ESPN

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Speaker 3: Plus you can watch every fight there.

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Speaker 4: So no pay per view for this particular weekend.

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Speaker 3: All right, main event Martin Vittori Jared Cannoneer. That is

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Speaker 3: your main event for this weekend Cannoneer. Billy is at

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Speaker 3: plus one oh four. Billy Ward, by the way, has

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Speaker 3: the UFC LUCK rankings available over at Luck Ratings. Excuse me,

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Speaker 3: kind of the same thing, Luck Ratings available at actionnetwork

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Speaker 3: dot com.

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Speaker 4: He previews the card but also gives.

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Speaker 3: You if he thinks the line that's under fighters, undervalued

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Speaker 3: or fairly valued or overvalued, etc. In the year plus

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Speaker 3: one oh four, Vittori's the favorite minus one twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: What comes to mind when you see these two fighters

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Speaker 3: going head to head and how do you want to

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Speaker 3: bet this fight?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this is an interesting main event, you know, a

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Speaker 5: little bit higher quality than we see at the Apex

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Speaker 5: a lot of the time. In a way, this is

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Speaker 5: almost like the bronze medal match of the middleweight division.

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Speaker 5: Both guys have lost or beaten everyone other than Robert

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Speaker 5: Whittaker in current champion Israel at a Sonya in their

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Speaker 5: last seven or eight fights, depending how far back you

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Speaker 5: look on each of them. So it's a great fight

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Speaker 5: if you know you're interested in the division and seeing

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Speaker 5: who really is the best, probably not, you know, major

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Speaker 5: title implications for either guys, just because we've seen them

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Speaker 5: both in there with Autasnya and Robert Whitaker, who is

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Speaker 5: pretty clearly the second best middleweight, but still a compelling fight.

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Speaker 5: I'm really interested to see how this one plays itself out.

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Speaker 5: You know, I tweeted earlier in the week when Vittori

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Speaker 5: was around even money that just felt like free CLV

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Speaker 5: if you wanted to take that one, and that's what

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Speaker 5: we've seen. You know, I think the sharp action has

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Speaker 5: all came in on Marvin Vittori. Think you could even

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Speaker 5: get them plus money at a certain point, maybe Monday

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Speaker 5: or so.

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Speaker 6: But I like the matchup for him.

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Speaker 5: You know, Vittori's a southbaw He has really really good footwork.

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Speaker 5: When he was fighting Roman Deleds in his last fight,

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Speaker 5: he was almost constantly winning that battle of the lead foot,

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Speaker 5: meaning getting his front foot outside of his orthodox opponents.

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Speaker 5: That's going to be a major factor here against Cannoneer.

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Speaker 5: Both mine have excellent leg kicks, but it's really hard

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Speaker 5: to land that leg kick on the opposite stance person

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Speaker 5: if your foot is to the inside of that Now,

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Speaker 5: Cannon ear does like to switch his stances a little bit,

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Speaker 5: but it's pretty obvious what he's doing, you know, I

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Speaker 5: noticed it just watching a couple fights. Every time he

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Speaker 5: switches dances, he throws a big powerkick from his rear

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Speaker 5: leg if I can pick up on that. Just trying

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Speaker 5: to break down this fight to bet on it, I'm

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Speaker 5: pretty sure Vittori and his camp are going to be

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Speaker 5: hip to that. Outside of that, you know, Vittori's got

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Speaker 5: much more volume, He's more active with his hands in

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Speaker 5: and out a lot, mix his levels pretty well. Cannoneer's

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Speaker 5: a little bit more powerful, you know. He likes to

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Speaker 5: hang on back, uses a super long reach to land

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Speaker 5: big shots. But Victoria's faut guys like that before, and

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Speaker 5: he's looked pretty good in those situations. He's pretty defensively sound.

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Speaker 5: So I think ultimately what it comes down to, other

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Speaker 5: than the leg kicks, is whether Cannoneer is able to

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Speaker 5: land that big shot in Vori has been in there

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Speaker 5: with some dangerous strikers. You know, he went the distance

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Speaker 5: with Atasania, which is very impressive. Another tall, long guy

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Speaker 5: who lands heavy shots. I think he'll be able to

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Speaker 5: do that again given the line movement, though, I don't

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Speaker 5: see victory coming here, just starching Cannon here. That's why

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Speaker 5: I'm going to my favorite, you know, fandual betting option

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Speaker 5: where you can get four or five rounds, four rounds

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Speaker 5: five or by decision if any of those happened, plus

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Speaker 5: one ten on Ventori. Given the way the lines moved,

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Speaker 5: I think that's a little bit better way to play

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Speaker 5: this one. I know Dan's on a similar angle with that.

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Speaker 5: If you really wanted to hedge or worried about it,

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Speaker 5: you know, the inverse of that cannoneer in the early rounds,

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Speaker 5: I could see some value there, but I think the

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Speaker 5: footwork and the movement and the leg kicks of Vittoria

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Speaker 5: are just going to be too much over time, probably

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Speaker 5: not going to be a late finish. I don't really

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Speaker 5: see that happening. But the difference between that and the

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Speaker 5: decision line isn't all that big, so I'm willing to

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Speaker 5: cover my bet there.

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Speaker 1: We do have the receipts.

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Speaker 4: That's what people do, right they go to Twitter.

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Speaker 1: Cape keep the risk seats well.

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Speaker 3: Billy Ward was on Twitter Monday, not sure if I'll

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Speaker 3: end up betting it, since I haven't gotten much too

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Speaker 3: much tape yet, she's now done victory and even money

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Speaker 3: pretty much guaranteed free CLV right now if you're into

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Speaker 3: that kind of thing. And Billy also adds, I was

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Speaker 3: leaning victory before looking at the lines for what it's worth,

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Speaker 3: thought he'd be minus one.

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Speaker 4: Fifty or so.

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Speaker 3: So therefore there is still value inventory sort of minus

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Speaker 3: one twenty eight compared to what Billy thought it would be.

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Speaker 3: There you go, so, Dan, as Billy teased, you might

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Speaker 3: be in a similar boat in terms of how.

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Speaker 4: You want to bet this midweight clash.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, No, I think he really nailed the breakdown. I

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Speaker 7: think it basically a big part of it comes just

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Speaker 7: down to durability. I don't think Candon here is going

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Speaker 7: to be the first one to stop Vittory, you know,

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Speaker 7: with punches, And I think the longer the fight goes on,

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Speaker 7: the more we see Vittori's durability and chin hang in there. Again,

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Speaker 7: that's not going to be around forever. But until we

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Speaker 7: see otherwise, I'm okay banking on it. The guy seems

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Speaker 7: to be resilient to a degree. Don't see a whole

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Speaker 7: lot especially at one eighty five or guys pack.

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Speaker 8: A lot of power.

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Speaker 7: But I was originally leaning vittory just straight up on

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Speaker 7: the money line, even though obviously we missed some of

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Speaker 7: the value earlier in the week. I really liked them

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Speaker 7: at via decision at plus one thirty. But honestly, I

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Speaker 7: think Billy's play, you know, you're losing a little bit

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Speaker 7: of the payoff, but getting two extra rounds and accounting

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Speaker 7: for a late stop, which which is.

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Speaker 8: A very real possibility.

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Speaker 7: I don't know, Like I said, I was initially going

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Speaker 7: victory via decision if you got access to the way

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Speaker 7: Billy did it, you know, with the kind of the

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Speaker 7: same game parlay with or the going to decision or

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Speaker 7: is around four or five at plus one ten, I

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Speaker 7: think either at one of those or good options.

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Speaker 8: I think the Tory is clearly the play.

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Speaker 3: Ye're looking elsewhere on the car. We'll get to the

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Speaker 3: fight of the night in the moment. Favorite underdog, Billy.

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Speaker 3: Is this a good underdog week?

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Speaker 6: I think it is.

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Speaker 5: There's a few that I like, you know, some of them,

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Speaker 5: like we see a lot the values left a little bit,

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Speaker 5: but I'm still on Nicholas Dolby. Really fun fight against

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Speaker 5: Muslim Salakov. This is one I'm interested in both betting

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Speaker 5: and watching. As we talk about on this one Muslim Salakhov.

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Speaker 5: They call him the King of kung Fu. He has

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Speaker 5: a wushu or sonda background, which is a combat sport

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Speaker 5: originating out of China, and it's basically strikes with takedowns,

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Speaker 5: but there's no groundwork once you get to the ground,

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Speaker 5: so I can take you down, I can throw you,

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Speaker 5: but then we just stand right back up and start

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Speaker 5: punching each other again, which carries over to MMA a

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Speaker 5: lot better than some of the traditional martial arts the

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Speaker 5: guys come in with. The issue I have with that

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Speaker 5: is that Salakov doesn't have a great ground game. He'll

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Speaker 5: get some takedowns, but usually doesn't do much with it

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Speaker 5: get stood back up. And Dlby is kind of the opposite.

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Speaker 5: Not a great wrestler, but he's a Brazilian judit to

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Speaker 5: brown belt. Both of his last two fights were pretty

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Speaker 5: high level grapplers and either at worst survived and at

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Speaker 5: best won some of those grappling exchanges. So if I'm Salakov,

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Speaker 5: I probably don't take it to this ground take it

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Speaker 5: to the ground against Alby.

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Speaker 6: If you do, he might wrestle himself into trouble. So

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Speaker 6: that's one angle.

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Speaker 5: But I also really like the stand up matchup Fordlby

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Speaker 5: with the kung fu style of Salakov if he really

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Speaker 5: needs some distance in some time and space to do

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Speaker 5: his stuff, and that's really hard against a guy Likedlby

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Speaker 5: who's constantly in your face, constantly shoving you against the fence,

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Speaker 5: just throws a ton more volume, and honestly, similar to

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Speaker 5: the Victoria canon ear fight, I could see Salakov landing,

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Speaker 5: you know, some big spinning wheel kick or one of

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Speaker 5: his trademark moves like that early in the fight. But

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Speaker 5: if he doesn't get it early, I think it's all

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Speaker 5: Delby from there on out, just based on the volume

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Speaker 5: which helps him win some minutes. So this is one

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Speaker 5: where if you're watching it live, you could hold out

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Speaker 5: and maybe try to beat Nicholas Delby after round one,

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Speaker 5: you know, cover some of that threat of early stoppage

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Speaker 5: and maybe even get a better line if he gets hurt.

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Speaker 5: But at plus one sixty two, I'm more than happy

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Speaker 5: just covering the money or taking the money line.

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Speaker 3: Initially, Dan, I know we'll get to the fight of

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Speaker 3: the night. We can just really transition. Now you've got

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Speaker 3: an underdog play on the Fight of the night. Sabatini

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Speaker 3: and all made up.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I like Almeida here.

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Speaker 7: I think Sabatini's stand up I don't think it's really

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Speaker 7: improving in his durability. I think is going to be

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Speaker 7: a concern. And I think again it's a guy like

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Speaker 7: Almeida who looked great last time out.

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Speaker 8: I think he's going to be the better striking.

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Speaker 7: I think he's more than competent on the ground, and

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Speaker 7: I think I'll probably want to keep this standing. I

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Speaker 7: know he's had a series of canceled bouts and it's

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Speaker 7: been a while since we've seen him, but he was

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Speaker 7: training for killers in those I think he's going to

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Speaker 7: be more than prepared.

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Speaker 8: I feel like this should probably be.

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Speaker 7: Lying a little closer to a fifty to fifty, So

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Speaker 7: getting plus one fifty plus one sixty in that neighborhood.

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Speaker 7: I love that, especially for a fight. I want to

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Speaker 7: watch it because it's one of my favorite bets, but

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Speaker 7: I also want to watch it just.

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Speaker 8: Because it's going to be a fantastic fight.

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Speaker 7: We were talking earlier about sometimes we have bets we

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Speaker 7: like with fights that we have no interest in watching.

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Speaker 8: But this is the opposite. It's a bet I like

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Speaker 8: anithet fight.

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Speaker 3: I like so reading up, Billy on your your Luck ratings,

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Speaker 3: you actually think Sabatini.

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Speaker 4: Is undervalued in this spot.

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Speaker 3: All Meida is at plus one fifty four on the

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Speaker 3: money line, So and Dan likes al Meida.

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Speaker 4: Where are you at with this the fight of the

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Speaker 4: night this particular.

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Speaker 5: Well, I did like Sabatini is an undervalued option earlier

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Speaker 5: in the week, but he was minus one seventy five

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Speaker 5: minus one eighty. I thought he was a little undervalued

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Speaker 5: just because he kind of got a weird fluke ish

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Speaker 5: knockout in his last fight. It's not a fluke when

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Speaker 5: a guy punches you in the face and renders you unconscious,

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Speaker 5: right Like, these guys train really hard to do that,

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Speaker 5: But that's not something that you expect to happen all

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Speaker 5: the time. It was a bit of a weird fight

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Speaker 5: against Damon Jackson, whose brother just died and was super

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Speaker 5: emotionally charged.

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Speaker 6: It was a whole thing. I don't think that.

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Speaker 5: That really tells us a lot about Sabatini as a

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Speaker 5: fighter or his ability. Then, on the other side of that,

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Speaker 5: while Almeida ended up getting a knockout in his UFC debut,

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Speaker 5: he was hurt real bad in the first round. If

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Speaker 5: you go back and watch that fight, there's a lot

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Speaker 5: of refs who probably would have stepped in and stopped

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Speaker 5: that one against Almeida in that fight against Mike Trezano,

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Speaker 5: so he was kind of lucky in the sense of

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Speaker 5: he was given the chance to come back and obviously

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Speaker 5: it was the right call by the referee or not

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Speaker 5: because he ended up winning. But if this fight is

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Speaker 5: against five and oh Patrick sabat Is five and oh

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Speaker 5: Patrick Sabatini against oh and one Lucas Almeida, we'd see

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Speaker 5: a much larger line, and we have because it's moved,

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Speaker 5: you know, Sabotini now minus two fifteen. I'm actually with

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Speaker 5: Dan where if I had to pick a side right now,

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Speaker 5: I'd probably go to Almeta because the line has moved far.

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Speaker 5: But what I said in my luck ratings is given

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Speaker 5: what we've seen from both guys, they've both been hurt

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Speaker 5: in recent fights, it's kind of a binary matchup where

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Speaker 5: Sabotini has a huge edge on the ground, Almada should

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Speaker 5: be much better on the feet. I said in the

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Speaker 5: luck ratings, I think when the lines are released, the

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Speaker 5: best bet is probably on under two and a half.

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Speaker 5: That's minus one thirty Love that. Now, I'm going to

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Speaker 5: trust my gut from earlier in the week. You know,

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Speaker 5: sometimes it's hard to trust the thing you said earlier

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Speaker 5: as you get deeper into things.

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Speaker 6: I'm going to do that this one.

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Speaker 5: But even though I'm on the Sabatini side at his

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Speaker 5: previous line, I actually do agree with Dan, given how

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Speaker 5: much it's moved in his direction.

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Speaker 3: All Right, Sabatini five and zero in the UFC this

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Speaker 3: point in his career.

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Speaker 6: Four and one.

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Speaker 5: I was saying he would be five and oh had

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Speaker 5: he not got that, he got it? God, that was

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Speaker 5: kind of my you know, when I look at the

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Speaker 5: luck ratings, it's kind of like, what would this line

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Speaker 5: be had close events like that played out differently? It's

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Speaker 5: kind of my logic. So obviously he'd be a much

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Speaker 5: different or much heavier favorite if.

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Speaker 6: Those things had happened. They didn't.

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Speaker 5: And I'm not saying it was lucky or unlucky to

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Speaker 5: get knocked out, but it's not something we expect to

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Speaker 5: happen every fight with a guy of his quality.

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Speaker 1: Gotcha. Okay, let's move on to the prop market.

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Speaker 3: And these are always fun because a lot of times

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Speaker 3: you get some good plus money and I like it,

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Speaker 3: take it behind the curtain. Dan had a good line

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Speaker 3: before we got started, like, hey, some of these bets

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Speaker 3: are just if you're interested in winning money. These are

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Speaker 3: bets we like, but we actually want to sweat these out.

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Speaker 3: I mean we want to sweat them out. I understand that.

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Speaker 3: But folks are tuning in for some long, long shot

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Speaker 3: stuff like this, and that's sometimes what the prop market

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Speaker 3: offers because they tend to be long shot ish, Billy,

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Speaker 3: What are you looking this week.

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Speaker 1: For a prop?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at Teresa Bledza. Her nickname is Russian

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Speaker 5: Ronda is then Ronda Rousey and that's not by accident.

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Speaker 5: And her submission line is plus four sixty, which just

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Speaker 5: seemed really long. How heavy of a moneyline favorite she is.

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Speaker 5: She lost her UFC debut. She got knocked out in

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Speaker 5: the third round. She's kind of a first round or first.

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Speaker 6: Half of the fighter bus type fighter.

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Speaker 5: But she hadn't Talia Silva in a couple submissions that

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Speaker 5: were fairly close and just emptied the tank trying to

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Speaker 5: finish them and it didn't work.

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Speaker 6: I think this is a better matchup for it.

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Speaker 5: And Italia Silva, who she fought in her debut, is

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Speaker 5: now three to zero in the UFC and just looks

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Speaker 5: like a monster, So I think she's able to get

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Speaker 5: it done in this one. I also like her inside

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Speaker 5: the distance sign at plus two hundred because, unlike her

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Speaker 5: theoretical namesake, here, she does go for a lot of

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Speaker 5: ground and pounds. She's not just hunting submissions but plus

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Speaker 5: four sixty.

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Speaker 8: You know, it's kind of that.

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Speaker 6: Prop Scott squad style bet that we like to make.

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Speaker 5: It's an easier opponent for she's an excellent, you know,

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Speaker 5: wrestler slash judo player. I love this fight just because

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Speaker 5: we get to further our debates of Brazilian jiu jitsu

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Speaker 5: versus judo, which is, you know, for people in the

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Speaker 5: martial arts scene, is a battle that will never be solved,

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Speaker 5: but will at least get one more data point on

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Speaker 5: one side or the other.

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Speaker 6: This weekend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we are we looking for a prom this weekend.

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Speaker 3: UFC Vegas seventy five.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, going back to a fight we discussed earlier, Billy

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Speaker 7: discussed earlier, the Nicholas Dalby one. I actually he made

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Speaker 7: me kind of a believer earlier this week, and Dolby

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Speaker 7: is a live underdog here. But I really feel like

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Speaker 7: if he's going to win, he's just going to grind

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Speaker 7: kind of grind out a grimy decision and maybe pull

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Speaker 7: away late. So taking Delby by decision, he's already plus

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Speaker 7: money just on the money line. You can bump that

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Speaker 7: from plus one sixty to about plus two to sixty

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Speaker 7: if you take him via decision. I think that's his

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Speaker 7: most likely path to victory.

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Speaker 8: So I don't know.

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Speaker 7: That could be kind of a fun fight for the MMA.

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Speaker 7: I guess the ogs it could be a bit of

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Speaker 7: a grimy one, but I think Dalby's a live dog

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Speaker 7: and I like him to win by decision.

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Speaker 5: And that's another one where if you're betting on our

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Speaker 5: sponsor FanDuel, they have the round three or decision line,

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Speaker 5: which I don't have off the top of my head,

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Speaker 5: but obviously somewhere between the money line and the decision line.

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Speaker 5: You know, just are you worried about a guy getting

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Speaker 5: finished on the stretch. I don't really trust Salakov Cardio,

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Speaker 5: which speaks to Dan's line as well, but also could

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Speaker 5: raise the chance of a third round stoppage, especially with

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Speaker 5: gentlemen of a certain age getting in there.

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Speaker 6: Both guys are coming up on forty.

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Speaker 7: I was gonna say, I forget who was, but I

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Speaker 7: think someone on our prop squad too is targeting round

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Speaker 7: two and round three submissions. Maybe in there or may

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Speaker 7: it might be another one, but yeah, I billion thanks

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Speaker 7: for bringing that up.

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Speaker 5: It's tricky on these when you get the I think

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Speaker 5: we coined the phrase a few weeks ago Brendan cash

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Speaker 5: the idea, where it's always sad when you catch that

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Speaker 5: but not the ticket.

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Speaker 8: You know that.

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Speaker 3: I was thinking about this in the car the other

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Speaker 3: day and like, what was the phrase that Billy and

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Speaker 3: or Shan Zarrillo said? It was the idea you cash

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Speaker 3: the idea but not the bet.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, so you know you're running the risk of

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Speaker 5: some cash in the idea if stoppage at four minutes

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Speaker 5: in the third round, you have that decision prop But obviously,

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Speaker 5: you know we we like to get paid out more

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Speaker 5: money rather than less money. And if that's the likeliest outcome,

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Speaker 5: you know, if that's the way.

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Speaker 4: To do that, cash the idea, that's phenomenal. Well, hopefully

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Speaker 4: that doesn't happen. We want to catch the bets.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 3: With that said, final bets, best bets, Billy, is this

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Speaker 3: one of best bet that we're gonna watch and enjoy

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Speaker 3: or bet and run away.

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Speaker 5: I wouldn't say this is necessarily a best bet. It's

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Speaker 5: more of a final bet this weekend. I really like

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Speaker 5: the doll we play, I think, but you know, obviously

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Speaker 5: fits better underdog or prop. But I'm looking at Armin Petrosian.

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Speaker 5: He's plus one twenty two on FanDuel. I think if

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Speaker 5: you shop around you can get somewhere in the plus

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Speaker 5: one thirties. He's fighting Christian Leroy Duncan, who is kind

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Speaker 5: of like one of the next typed British prospects. Duncan

389
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Speaker 5: has one UFC fight and he won it because his

390
00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,360
Speaker 5: opponent kind of had a freak knee injury up against

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Speaker 5: the fence. So we don't know a ton about Duncan.

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Speaker 5: What we do know is Petrosian, two and one in

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Speaker 5: the UFC, just faced a murderer's row. His first couple

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Speaker 5: of fights. He fought RoboCop and then I'm trying to

395
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Speaker 5: Kyo Bijio, both of whom are combined to be eight

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Speaker 5: and two in the UFC, with one of those losses

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Speaker 5: coming to Prasian. And Patrazian has outstruck every opponent he's fought,

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Speaker 5: right he's a super high level muytai fighter. That's where

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Speaker 5: his background is. In the UFC fed him to you know,

400
00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,639
Speaker 5: grappling phenoms in his first couple fights. Duncan has a

401
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,880
Speaker 5: background as a high level basketball player in England, which

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00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,160
Speaker 5: are you know, just a combination of words that don't

403
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,359
Speaker 5: make me think you can wrestle at all, And we

404
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,960
Speaker 5: haven't really seen him do it much. Even he has

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Speaker 5: one submission in the Cage Warriors for one of his

406
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 5: fights there, but it was more of a club and

407
00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 5: sub situation where you heard a guy and snatched up

408
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:31,520
Speaker 5: and neck and I'm just going to trust the high

409
00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,400
Speaker 5: level kickboxer to be able to win if the fight

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Speaker 5: stays placed in his area, which it should. It's an

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Speaker 5: intriguing fight because Petrossian is not a big power guy,

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Speaker 5: not a knockout artist.

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Speaker 6: Duncan is the exact opposite.

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Speaker 5: Duncan also has a huge rootsch edge, but that's been

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Speaker 5: every fight for Petrozian in the UFC and he's overcame

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00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 5: those factors so far. It's something we talked about earlier

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Speaker 5: with Vittori. We don't know if it's chin or just

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00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 5: you're so defensively sound that you're never getting really hit squarely.

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Speaker 5: But Petrosian has managed to eat what look like some

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Speaker 5: pretty big shots and still put a pace on his opponents.

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00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,119
Speaker 5: Lands a ton of leg and bodykicks, which will pay

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Speaker 5: dividends down the stretch. I think if we can avoid

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Speaker 5: that early power sturge from CLD, and CLD has only

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Speaker 5: had one fight go to decision, He's used to hitting

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Speaker 5: people and they just collapse right there. So I think

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Speaker 5: it's another one where we could wait and get a

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Speaker 5: live line on Petrosium that might be a little bit

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Speaker 5: better after round one, But since we're already getting plus money,

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Speaker 5: I'm just going to play the money line, especially in

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Speaker 5: the plus one thirties that are out there.

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Speaker 3: All right excellent, and just to clarify.

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Speaker 4: Yeh plus one twenty six available at Fandel, so you

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Speaker 4: get a.

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Speaker 3: Little bit of a better price onto dan best bet

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Speaker 3: before we get out of here.

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Speaker 7: I have a feeling this may could fall into the

437
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 7: cash the idea, which kind of scares me a.

438
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:51,240
Speaker 8: Bit, but I like he likes it.

439
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 7: I'm going to take Alessandro Costa to win inside the distance.

440
00:18:56,400 --> 00:19:00,240
Speaker 7: Part of this is I was kind of leaning cost Any.

441
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,119
Speaker 7: I do a lot of my betting kind of seeing

442
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,919
Speaker 7: what smart folks are also on, and I know a

443
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 7: lot of folks that I really respect are on this fight.

444
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 7: I think what it comes down to is his opponent,

445
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 7: Jimmy Flick. I think there's too much value being put

446
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,920
Speaker 7: in his submission ability in this fight, and I think

447
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,000
Speaker 7: it's kind of taining the line a bit. I think

448
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,040
Speaker 7: Flick does have a submission thread. I don't think it's

449
00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,520
Speaker 7: as big as people are making it out to be.

450
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 7: Cost is very competent on on the ground. I think

451
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,439
Speaker 7: actually kind of prior to the UFC did a lot

452
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 7: of his work on the ground. But he's going to

453
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,439
Speaker 7: have a huge striking edge. I worry about Flick's durability.

454
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 7: I worry about his game planning in this if things

455
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,159
Speaker 7: don't go well for him right off the bat. So

456
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 7: Cost inside the distance, I think it's minus one twenty

457
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 7: minus one thirty. May even find a better line. And

458
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 7: I think that's one too where we may someone in

459
00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:52,080
Speaker 7: prop squad I think is targeting round two, round three

460
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,760
Speaker 7: props for plus six hundred plus one thousand around there.

461
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,439
Speaker 8: So Cost inside the distance, I really like that one.

462
00:19:58,280 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 6: I like that one too.

463
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 5: I was just gonna add those guys with the submission

464
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 5: threat like that Jimmy Flick specifically, who goes for you know,

465
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,199
Speaker 5: really wild and off the wall submissions. It's kind of like,

466
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 5: if you don't get it, you're putting yourself in a

467
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:10,479
Speaker 5: really bad spot to get knocked out. You know, when

468
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 5: you go for a flying triangle. Awesome when it works,

469
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 5: but when it misses, all of a sudden, you're on

470
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 5: your back. You just drop from six feet in the air.

471
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 5: You're kind of disoriented. Flick is a guy who'll get

472
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,119
Speaker 5: a good position on the ground but sacrifice it to

473
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 5: go for an armbar or something like that, which I

474
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 5: think raises the odds of the inside the distance, which

475
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 5: makes that a way better way to play this than

476
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 5: the money line, because the money line does factor in

477
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 5: that submission threat.

478
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,240
Speaker 3: I think it's even money plus one hundred even better

479
00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 3: over it over at fandels. There you go, all right, chents,

480
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,360
Speaker 3: that's going to do it for a UFC Vegas seventy

481
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 3: five betting preview Here in the Action Network podcast, we

482
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 3: are presented by FanDuel. Thanks to our friends at FanDuel.

483
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,919
Speaker 3: Find Dan and Billy in the Action Network app. Can

484
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 3: also find Billy's Luck ratings for this particular card over

485
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 3: an Action Network dot Com in the app as well.

486
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 4: Add anything last minute check the app, Billy, do you

487
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 4: know if you get we get Zarolla back next week?

488
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,439
Speaker 4: No disrespected, Dan, I'm just curious.

489
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 6: Please, I believe so last I heard.

490
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,479
Speaker 5: I'm not one hundred percent on that though, So someone

491
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 5: will be here telling you how to about on for

492
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 5: next week's UFC.

493
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 6: I will be one of those people who else it is.

494
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 1: Hey, Dan, thanks for being here.

495
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 8: Appreciate you, No problem, I appreciate it. Okay, all right.

496
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 4: Also, you can find Billy Ward's nurfy baseball picks over

497
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 4: in the Action app and on Actionnetwork dot Com. Billy

498
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 4: also contributes to.

499
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 3: Our baseball content during the summer. Brendy la Jean signing off.

500
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 3: Thanks for tuning in, everybody. You have a great weekend,

501
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 3: enjoy the card.

502
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:39,680
Speaker 4: We'll talk to you next week.

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00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

504
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 7: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

505
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 7: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

506
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Speaker 7: hundred Gambler