WEBVTT - Impossible To Get Labor Post-Stimulus: FAT Brands CEO 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.439 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.840 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's bring in now 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:27.800 Andy Peter Horn. He is the CEO of Fat Brands UM. 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:32.720 They run own and run restaurants including Johnny Rockets, Fat 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:35.519 Burger and Buffalo's Cafe. I say, there used to be 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:39.320 a Johnny Rockets on Third and like fifty six, UM, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:43.200 and I would go there and get double bacon cheeseburger 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:48.400 with that Apple would smoked bacon and a peanut butter milkshake, 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:50.960 which I would I would kill someone for one of 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:56.200 those right now. But uh, what's changed about the business? Um? 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:58.319 And he since since I've been down there. I'm I'm 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:01.240 in Berlin the last five years, so I haven't been 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:03.760 back in the States and I don't even think that, um, 0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:06.959 that restaurant on Third Avenue is open anymore. So what's 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:10.800 what's Johnny Rockets, What's fatburger like now, well, you know, 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:14.240 thanks for having me. The Johnny Rockets brand, we bought 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:17.600 it six months ago and about three five restaurants a 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:19.880 hundred and seventy five of those are international. They're all 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:22.759 over the place, all over Europe, all over Latin and 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:26.000 South America. UM and you know we have like a 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:28.240 hundred of them down there, so they're they're everywhere today, 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:32.959 growing rapidly. Uh. We don't have one in in Manhattan today, 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:36.600 but hopefully we'll have another one there soon. Uh. And 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:41.000 you know, businesses growing alright, So give us a just 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:44.480 give us a we're thirteen fourteen months andy into this pandemic. 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.319 Give us a kind of a big four the pandemic 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:49.360 and kind of where we are now, how has a 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:53.280 pandemic impacted your businesses? You've got we've been we've been 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:57.640 fortunate and that most of our brands have met or 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:02.560 exceeded their their levels. Now they've recovered the burger brand 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:06.040 Stapper Elevation Burger, which is an organic grass fed burger 0:02:06.080 --> 0:02:09.360 chain on the East Coast, and Johnny Rockets recovering nicely 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:12.200 allowed delivery and to go business. So they were really 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:14.920 fortunate to be able to take advantage of that market. Um, 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:17.680 they're probably at normal. There are a lot of special 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:20.240 venues that aren't quite open yet, like amusement park, steam parks, 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:23.240 things like that everywhere where. Johnny Rackett's new movie Theaters 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:26.079 has a lot of locations on the Hurricane Growing Wings, 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:29.000 Buffalo's Cafe. Those are casual dining restaurants with full bars 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:31.519 and outdoor dining rooms and all that. They're like a 0:02:31.600 --> 0:02:35.080 hundred and seventeen percent of normal. So they're just recovering 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:38.280 like crazy. And part of that is because during the pandemic, 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:43.280 when outdoor dining was allowed, delivery and to go raised awareness, 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:46.079 and then when customers allowed to come back to the 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:48.239 dining rooms, you have all this additional delivery business that 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:51.079 customers didn't really know about before, and so now they're 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:53.799 over acent of normal. So doing very well. They're a 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:56.079 little bit of trouble in the Midwest with our steakhouse 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:59.440 unit Ponderosa and Bonanza where a lot of closures for 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:02.440 a long period of time. Probably lost some stores there, 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:05.119 but it's a small percentage of our total seven hundred restaurants. 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:09.400 So we've been very fortunate. When you say organic and 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:12.680 grass fed, my mouth immediately starts to water and I 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:16.120 jumped on the Fat Burger website site. I see you 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:19.359 have an x x x L Triple King burger that's 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:23.720 one and a half pounds. Um, I would attempt it. 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:26.520 I'm not sure if I can. We have a contest 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:29.600 if you eat that burger, the Triple X Challenge, or 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:31.640 it used to be called the Triple King Challenge. If 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:33.160 you can eat that burger, you get a T shirt 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:36.600 and a certificate. But oftentimes we see guys and girls 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:38.640 go into the restaurant, and the girls always win because 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:41.160 they're much smarter and they're not eating French fries and 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:43.240 drinking too much soda while they're trying to get that 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:46.440 thing down, and they're very methodical about it. So it's 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:49.800 definitely a contest burger. Well, as the Grateful Dead said, 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:53.200 the women are smarter. Um. What I noticed is there's 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:56.320 not a lot of fake meat here on Fat Burger. 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:59.320 On the Johnny Rockets menu, I do see, Um, you 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.240 know a garden burger, a black bean burger. What do 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:05.240 you think about the fake meat trend? I don't know. 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:06.960 Fake meat is a pejorative term, but you know what 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:10.480 I mean, right, Um, more and more baste proteins exactly. 0:04:10.480 --> 0:04:13.200 So we we have plant based proteins across all of 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:18.080 our brands today. That's the Impossible Burger UH domestically UM 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:21.480 and it's to beyond Burger in some international markets because 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:24.480 of distribution. But the Possible Borger is a great product. M. 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:27.440 Plant based proteins are here to stay. Brands need to 0:04:27.480 --> 0:04:30.719 adapt them. And basically, you take that that patty that 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:33.839 tastes like beef and bleeds like beef, and you add 0:04:33.880 --> 0:04:36.240 the toppings that come with your burger, whether it's an 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:39.119 Elevation product or a Fat Burger product or Johnny Rockets product, 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:41.560 and it's gonna taste like Johnny Rockets burger, a fatburger, 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:44.520 you know, it's just got a different element of the patty. 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:47.520 But plant based proteins are here, they're not going away. 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:50.039 They make up a segment of the market where it's 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:53.360 much better than the ordinary you know, garden Burger or 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:56.360 Boca Patty Burger, which we have also. But you know, 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:58.760 if you want the flavor of beef, then you're gonna 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:00.880 enough to go to a plant based protein sen And 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:02.640 it's it's really because people don't want to eat the 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.160 red meat. It's not because they're the healthiest product in 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:08.280 the market. Because they're not. It's just a delicious product 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:11.880 on the cost side. And he talked us about employees 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:14.880 and the ability to attract and retain employees. These days, 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:17.400 there's so much talk out there that the stimulus is 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:22.280 impacting that two words for you, total nightmare. The labor 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:25.760 market in the labor market in the restaurant industry right 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:29.560 now has been decimated by the stimulus package and unemployment benefits, 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:31.839 and it's impossible to get people to come back to 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:35.080 work and to get new hires, new general managers, new 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:37.760 employees in the restaurants that are under construction to be built. 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:41.000 And this is not something that we experienced nine months 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:43.240 ago in the first round of PPP loans and stimulus 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:45.480 checks went out. We really didn't see this problem. But 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:48.040 now we have people hanging around the hoop to get 0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:50.360 their check and spend their money instead of coming back 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:52.720 to work, and it's it's just been a problem now. 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:55.640 Obviously it's going to wear off fairly soon when unemployment 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:58.520 benefits drop off in the stimulus checks are spent. Right now, 0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:01.960 it's been very difficult and it's driven up food prices 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:05.800 as well because the same problem exists at the processing 0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:09.280 plants and for the distribution centers. So we have shortages 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:12.000 all over the country because the like Cisco and US 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:14.600 Foods and all the big broadline distributors have run out 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:16.880 of drivers. All right, that's I think we've heard that 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:19.679 around the business and you Weader Horn, CEO Fat Brands, 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:21.680 thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate your 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:26.560 thoughts on the restaurant industry. Let's get the latest, shall we, 0:06:26.680 --> 0:06:29.320 on some of the leading geopolitical issues that are out 0:06:29.320 --> 0:06:31.880 there right now in the news. When we do that, 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:34.840 we always like to turn to Admiral James Trevites. He's 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:38.719 a calumnist for Bloomberg Opinion, retired US Navy admiral and 0:06:38.760 --> 0:06:42.480 a former military commander of NATO, and Admiral Strevitis is 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:44.320 always kind with his time when we want to talk 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:46.880 some of these big geopolitical issues. Admiral, thanks so much 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:50.000 for joining us here. I'd love to start on the 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:53.120 Ukraine because that seems to be the most topical here. 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:57.960 We have Russia massing troops on the border there. What 0:06:58.000 --> 0:06:59.440 do you think is going on and what do you 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:03.560 think the US response should be, if any? We should 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:10.400 first start with recognizing that Russia actually invaded Ukraine and 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:15.000 carved a significant chunk out of their territory, the Peninsula 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:19.520 of Crimea strategically important in the Black Sea. Russia has 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:25.920 continued to service and support rebel groups in southeastern Ukraine, 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:29.080 so there's a lot of bad history there. And now 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:32.520 over the last two to three weeks we've seen reports vary, 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:35.960 but between twenty thousand and I saw numbers. I has 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:40.880 eighty thousand troops. This is a significant force. So the 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:44.880 reason for it, I think is threefold. One is Putin 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:48.360 is rattling a saber at the United States because he 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:52.000 knows that there are going to be some significant sanctions 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:57.640 coming against his regime for the activities on cyber in 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:01.320 our election, and above all the solar windsack Number two, 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.200 Putin is playing to his home crowd, if you will, 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:08.720 all politics are local in the end, He's trying to um, 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:11.600 if you will, show the the strength and the power 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:14.200 of Russia, how they can drive events. And then, third 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:21.400 and finally, he is seeking to uh distract from the 0:08:21.440 --> 0:08:26.840 imprisonment and the poisoning of Alexander Navalny his political opponents. 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:29.400 So he's got a shopping list of things he wants 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:32.360 to do. He's got eighty thousand troops on the border. 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.839 Let's say I think the chances are still low that 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:39.960 he will actually conduct an invasion, but he is certainly 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:43.880 seeking to demonstrate that he can make things very difficult 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:46.200 for the United States in the West if he desires 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:49.960 to well. And Biden's been pretty bold when talking to 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.480 President Putin. I don't think it's unfair to say that, Um. 0:08:53.600 --> 0:08:58.080 Donald Trump seemingly adored the Russian leader, and you know, 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:01.360 Biden comes right out of the gate kicking calling him 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:05.840 a murderer. Um. On the other hand, Admiral, it does 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:09.480 seem as though a lot of these geopolitical hotspots, a 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:14.560 lot of these bad actors are are are showing strength 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:18.600 right when this new administration comes into office. Is am 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.280 I seeing it the wrong way? Or do the Russians 0:09:21.320 --> 0:09:23.760 and the Chinese just feel more comfortable doing these kind 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:27.319 of things with Democrats in office. I don't know if 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:31.360 it's more comfortable, but there's certainly a long history on 0:09:31.440 --> 0:09:36.440 both sides, Republican and Democrat, of having to experience testing 0:09:36.880 --> 0:09:41.600 when you take over. And so when President Trump took over, 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:46.160 we saw Kim Jong unt launch ballistic missiles. UM when 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.960 the President Biden takes over. As you just saw, we 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:52.520 see Ukraine. But the other one, and you're absolutely right, 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:57.599 is Taiwan. We've seen the Chinese fly fighters into the 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:01.800 ear defense zone of Taiwan, highest number UH since Taiwan 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.559 started recording these kind of incidents. China has a carrier 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:08.720 strike group operating just off the coast of Taiwan right now. 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:11.400 So I think it's very true to say that every 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:15.800 administration gets tested early. The question is how do you respond. 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:19.280 And in my most recent Bloomberg opinion piece which came 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:23.680 out this morning, um, my prescription is you've got to stare, 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:27.080 Putin down. He is a killer, and if you give 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:30.400 in to him, if you appease him, there's no future 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:32.600 in that process. So I think we've got to take 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:37.040 a fairly strong stance across that Ukrainian border, not with 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:41.280 armed US military troops parachuting in there, but giving more 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:46.120 weapons to Ukraine, providing them training, allowing them partnership agreements 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:48.760 with NATO. They're not members of NATO, but they've been 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.600 a close ally or a close partner of NATO over 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:53.800 the years. So there's a lot we can do to 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:56.480 demonstrate to Putin that there will be a significant cost 0:10:56.559 --> 0:11:00.439 to add to him. Admiral, this brings up an issue. UM. 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:03.240 You know, I was kind of excited to see a 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:08.040 positive headline ari e NATO cooperation this morning at the 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:10.400 meeting in Brussels. They're gonna put another five the US 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:12.400 gonna put another five hundred troops here in Germany where 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:16.480 I am in Berlin. On the other hand, I have 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:19.560 been uh stationed here for the last five years and 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:24.079 just shocked to see that. Um. The Chancellor, who otherwise 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:26.800 is considered you know, a leader of the G twenty, 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:33.000 is so determined to get a pipeline up to Russia, 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:37.160 essentially a pipeline that funnels cash to Vladimir Putin in 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.800 exchange for his natural gas. And now it looks like 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:45.199 Germans are also looking to get the Russian vaccine. Um 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:48.880 is it important where you buy your commodities? I mean, uh, 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:54.280 aren't we funding a really problematic regime here we are? 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:58.280 And um, as I was saying just today in an 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:02.120 interview with a German newspaper, they were asking the same questions. UM, 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:06.360 let's add another controversy, which is Germany apparently is determined 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:09.880 to use Walkway to build their five gene networks. And 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:12.200 as I said to the German reporter, you know, life 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:16.720 is full of choices for people and for alliances. And yes, 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:19.800 it is important to the long term relationship with the 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:24.480 US and Germany that Germany stands with the United States 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:29.440 against these authoritarian regimes, both Russia and China. All right, 0:12:29.800 --> 0:12:32.760 let's move from hotspots on the planet Earth to space. 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:36.040 You also have another column, Oul. You've been prolific talking 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:39.080 about Russia and China teaming up a new space race. 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:43.040 What's the latest there and what's the ramifications for the US. Well, 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.160 the big news here is not just space. It is 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:49.240 the way Russia and China are drawing closer and closer 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:54.920 and closer together. They're aligning themselves diplomatically, economically, militarily. Largest 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:58.920 exercise military exercise conducted since the end of the Cold 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:02.319 War was up on this buryan border between Russia and China, 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.800 about a year ago. Um. This latest thing is that 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:09.080 Russia and China have come together and announced they will 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:15.920 create an outpost on the move, a lunar outpost. This 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:19.559 is a big deal because, um, it has not only 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:25.920 commercial economic implications, but it also has real military potential 0:13:26.000 --> 0:13:28.840 in both of these nations. As I talked about in 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:32.240 that Bluebird opinion piece, both of them are really using 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:36.320 their space programs in a highly militarized way. So we 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:39.520 had to be quite concerned watching these two nations, both 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:44.000 authoritarian regimes, both of whom we have difficult relationships with, 0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:47.680 drawing closer and closer together in space and in other areas. 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:51.480 Admiral thanks very much for joining us. Always great to 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:56.880 get your take on these issues. Admiral James Traviti's former 0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:02.080 Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. He is uh now, of course, 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.959 retired from the U. S. Navy and a Bloomberg opinion 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:09.439 columnist as well as an executive consultant at the Carlisle 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.600 Group UM, and has a number of other interests. He's 0:14:12.640 --> 0:14:16.040 got a book out four, a novel of the Next 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:18.720 World War. I've read the beginning and I only put 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:20.680 it down because I had to come to work. I 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:24.000 actually thought about calling in sick and just reading reading 0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:26.000 the rest of the book. It's so good, and I'm 0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:27.680 really into that kind of stuff. So great to have 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:33.120 General uh, sorry, Admiral James Travities on um talking about 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:39.080 the geo political hotspots around the world, our listic deference 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:41.960 as Johnson and Johnson and News this morning, we do 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:46.120 that with one of our favorite voices and all things pharmaceutical. 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:49.320 That's Sam Fazelli. He's a senior pharma analyst for Bloomberg 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:53.280 Intelligence based out of London. He also manages Bloomberg Intelligence 0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:55.600 for all of Europe, so we appreciate getting some of 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:58.560 his valuable time. Sam, thanks so much for joining us here. 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:00.600 You know, when I look at the numbers being reported, 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:03.440 six cases out of almost seven million, you know a 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:05.920 lot of observers would say that's a pretty good result. 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:08.960 Why are we pausing this thing? And it's so important 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:12.040 to get shots into arms. I'd love to get your thoughts, yes, 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:15.920 Hyphol Sorry, um. I think it's absolutely the right thing 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:18.960 for the CDC and the FDA to have done because 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:24.160 number one, this this events, this issue takes sometimes up 0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:28.880 to two weeks after the dose to rear its ugly 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.440 head unfortunately, so it's very possible that the numbers will 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:37.080 continue to rise, possibly to ten or fifteen. Who knows. 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:40.280 I can tell you that'd b Astra Zeneca. We're looking 0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:43.560 at something in the region of one in a hundred 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:45.880 thousand depending on the age of the people who have 0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:49.320 been vaccinated. So if that's the case, then we would 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:52.120 expect to see more more here, and that I think 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:54.640 is why the CDC is done and the FDA have 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:58.080 done what they've done. And of course the US does 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:00.960 not need the g NJ vaccine to get the majority 0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:07.520 of its people vaccinated. And that's it. It's still a bummer, uh, Sam, 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:11.440 because I was just just last night made final plans 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:13.080 to fly back to New York to get the J 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:17.240 and J vaccine UM since it's proving very difficult to 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:19.800 get it here in Germany. That won't be the case. Now, 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:23.560 I would still um take it, uh. And it seems 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:26.560 to me correct me if I'm wrong. The problems that 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:28.840 we've seen with blood clots and astras enka and the 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.320 problems that we've seen in UH, the J and J 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:36.360 vaccine with blood clots seemed to affect females under let's 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:38.640 say the age of sixty if you like. Is that 0:16:39.360 --> 0:16:42.480 is that a fair assessment? Well, so let's just be 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:46.320 careful here though about UM, and that is that it's 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:48.360 only six cases in the US, so that's not an 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:51.040 enough number of people to make that decision in the 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:54.760 UK where they've had the most cases, and in Europe, 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.520 when you look at the reported incidents divided by the 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:01.440 number of people of the different sexes that have been 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:06.640 vaccinated UM, it doesn't have a Unfortunately, it doesn't distinguish 0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:09.720 it in men and women based in the UK. Maybe 0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:13.480 something different in the US, but I doubt it. All right, Sam, 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:17.000 you mentioned that, and when you are talking much earlier 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:19.399 this morning, you kind of you made the comment to 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:21.479 me that again, we have plenty of supply here from 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:24.639 five and MODERNA, but I think about Europe, and I 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:26.200 think about other parts of the world that may be 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:29.040 relying more on a single dose shot like the Johnson 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:33.280 and Johnson. This could be a problematic. Now yeah, yeah, 0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:38.240 So both the European Union and the UK I think 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.720 will be fine. It might be a bit slower than 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:45.200 than expected in terms of or anticipated in terms of 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:48.760 Bionte Moderna shots, and then so of course we'll have 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:52.560 novo vax um. But the rest of the world is 0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:56.560 where the problem starts, because they have mostly either the 0:17:56.680 --> 0:18:00.880 J and J statonical vaccine or the vaccine um Russia 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:05.960 or China. Don't forget the Russian vaccine is also ana virus, 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.320 and I would be amazed if that doesn't have the 0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:11.680 same side effects, which of course will be incredible to 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.720 have if it doesn't. But then you have the China 0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:17.320 vaccines that so far, what we've seen published and not 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:20.000 thought has been published, they're not that effective. So you 0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:24.880 have a problem involving there. Yeah. UM, I just want 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:28.880 to cover a couple of headlines, bad headlines we're seeing 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.040 come across the ticker right now. First off, New York 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:34.600 City suspending its home bound senior vaccine drive due to 0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.000 the J and J pause. UM. Even if the J 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:41.200 J pauses the right thing to do, it's unfortunate that 0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:43.879 they have to stop this effort to go around and 0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:47.439 vaccinate the people who need it most. Also, the US 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:49.960 is saying what they see with the J and J 0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:54.119 vaccine is similar to the astro vaccine. I guess as 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:57.280 far as the data that they have, UM, they are 0:18:57.359 --> 0:19:00.639 saying it's unclear if there's any link between blood clots 0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:02.440 and birth control pills. And this goes back to the 0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:05.720 female issue SAM that we were talking about. UM they're 0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:07.639 saying they don't have any evidence to support that, but 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:11.439 clearly there's that speculation out there. Yeah, but the European 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:15.280 Unions already answered that question. Two two cases of this 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:19.760 odd v I T T. It's called vaccine induced thrombosis 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:24.800 with frombocytopenia. That's a mouthful, this v I T T 0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:28.560 two twenty two cases and there is no obvious link. 0:19:29.040 --> 0:19:31.200 So we we have the answer. We don't need to 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:33.440 go and ask any more questions on that one. And 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:37.920 what you get with these things with flights with conceptive pills, 0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:41.359 just the clotting. You don't get that frombocytopenia, that loss 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:46.000 of blood plate lists that normally causes bleeding. It's very 0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:49.320 rare to have a bleeding issue and a clotting issue 0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:53.320 at the same time. Right, that's the problem here, all right, Sam, 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:55.879 thank you so much for joining us once again. We 0:19:56.000 --> 0:19:59.040 turn to you often when there's news on the vaccines 0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:01.520 and this pandemic. Um. We appreciate you taking the time. 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:05.760 Santa Celli, he's a senior pharmaceutical analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, 0:20:05.800 --> 0:20:08.320 one of the absolute best for decades in the city 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:10.920 of London doing that, and he's also the manager of 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:15.000 all of Bloomberg Intelligence for Europe. Getting the latest yere 0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:18.439 on this, Johnson and Johnson vaccine setback here the now, 0:20:18.520 --> 0:20:21.560 the CDC and FDA, we're seeing headlines that they expected 0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:24.480 delay to be quote in a matter of days. Uh 0:20:24.640 --> 0:20:30.199 So hopefully that is the way it turns out. Now, 0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:33.119 I want to get over to David Garanty, chief market 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:37.719 strategist laid Law and Company, to talk to us about, um, 0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:41.879 his expectations on the markets and tech. And David, I 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:44.000 always feel like I'm talking to someone famous when we 0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:46.080 have you on, so I'm really psyched to get uh 0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:49.440 some time with you. Um what do you think about 0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:52.280 the coin base? I p oh, it's gonna be what 0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:55.840 a hundred billion dollar valuation, bigger than the exchange on 0:20:56.000 --> 0:20:59.480 which it's going to be listed. Is this a whole 0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:03.240 lot of yape or is this a growth industry? Well, 0:21:03.320 --> 0:21:06.320 I mean coin Base certainly, and thank you Paul for 0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:08.240 your kind words. But you know, coin Base, if we're 0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:10.520 looking at it, certainly has been serving very much as 0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:15.439 a gatekeeper relative to the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Uh, 0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:17.479 you know, given what they've got in terms of an 0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:20.920 account based at fifty eight million accounts and arguably for 0:21:21.040 --> 0:21:24.960 an asset class, has certainly seen very strong performance over 0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:27.760 the last twelve months. You know, they are probably the 0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:31.119 pre eminent exchange to go to. Certainly there are a 0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:34.639 business in which obviously a lot of other exchanges in 0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:39.000 other types of asset classes would like to be involved. Um, 0:21:39.320 --> 0:21:44.440 we don't necessarily see cryptocurrencies, you know, going away much 0:21:44.480 --> 0:21:46.960 as we saw back in two thousand and seventeen, because 0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:50.320 now we see measures coming into place that the cryptocurrency 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:54.120 market in its own way as being institutionalized. Now. That said, 0:21:54.240 --> 0:21:58.080 we can say cryptos got better traction now, um, but 0:21:58.240 --> 0:22:00.560 we also say, look at the valuation that you're paying 0:22:00.680 --> 0:22:04.120 for coin base, you know, less than two billion dollars 0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:06.639 in revenue last year, a hundred billion dollar likely evaluation. 0:22:07.000 --> 0:22:09.720 You know, it's pretty rich evaluation. Anytime you see something 0:22:09.800 --> 0:22:13.080 going out at more than fifty times revenues, um, you know, 0:22:13.200 --> 0:22:15.760 will they be able to grow into this valuation remains 0:22:15.880 --> 0:22:18.080 to be seen. But yeah, you're you're paying a lot 0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:21.600 to oh this name. Alright. So but if I'm an 0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:26.399 investor here and all I hear is bitcoin this, bitcoin that, 0:22:26.520 --> 0:22:28.120 but I see it going up every day, I feel 0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:30.159 like I've missed it. Is this the way for me 0:22:30.440 --> 0:22:34.040 to maybe get exposure and maybe this is my crypto 0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:37.920 play written large by getting into this coin basis, I 0:22:37.960 --> 0:22:39.480 mean I would agree to it. And it's not just 0:22:39.560 --> 0:22:41.920 a matter of getting Bitcoin exposure, but it's also getting 0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:45.000 exposure to the other cryptocurrencies that are listed, whether we're 0:22:45.000 --> 0:22:47.639 looking at the likes of ethereum, whether we're looking at 0:22:47.680 --> 0:22:51.440