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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast and it is good.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing, we're sitting. It's a cash toto. We see most

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Speaker 2: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate Kabaiana Pa and we are underway

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Speaker 2: and welcome to the Action Network Podcast. It's week four.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, joined as always by my guy,

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Speaker 2: the Prime Minister, Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck, what's going on?

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Speaker 3: What's up? Brother? Crazy crazy? Week three? From a betting perspective,

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Speaker 3: middle middling week for me one Thursday slight slight profits

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Speaker 3: Sunday and then have my worst call maybe all year,

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Speaker 3: with the Eagles plus four, and I also had some

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Speaker 3: under looking to shake off. That call. Couldn't have been

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Speaker 3: more wrong than I really impressed with Dallas. We'll get

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Speaker 3: to those teams later on, but Sunday was so exciting.

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Speaker 3: I mean, for me, as a Ravens fan and as

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Speaker 3: the biggest Justin Tucker fan in the world, a sixty

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Speaker 3: six yard off the bar and in is as exciting

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Speaker 3: of a field goal as you'll ever see in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: We both had our totals. We had our money one

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Speaker 3: underdog parlay again, I went one and two. You went

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Speaker 3: to and one. The funny thing is the one game

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Speaker 3: I won, I didn't like my bet, and that was

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins. Talk about a sweat. I also had the

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Speaker 3: under which got busted on that two point conversion. One

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Speaker 3: other two games of Colts I'd play again. I didn't

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Speaker 3: hate that play. And same with the Jags. I mean

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Speaker 3: the last time I played the Jags, Yes, I was

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Speaker 3: very disappointed with the play, but they had a ninety

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Speaker 3: four percent cover rate the end of the third quarter

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Speaker 3: and they run a flea flicker that gets picked off.

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Speaker 2: Who's their coach?

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Speaker 3: Who? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Who might what coach might lose the ninety four person

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Speaker 2: that cover rate in a quarter?

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Speaker 3: A battle of just coaching an aptitude. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: had Cliff Kingsbury kicking that field goal off the end of.

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Speaker 2: Oh I got you. I literally that was like my

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Speaker 2: only tweet during game time. I think I was just

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Speaker 2: like lmao qliff. I laughed out loud so hard when

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Speaker 2: Jamal Agnu for the second straight week, return to kick

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Speaker 2: for a touchdown.

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Speaker 3: But just like weeks one and two, who cares. We're

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Speaker 3: on the week four. Let's get into it.

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Speaker 2: All right before we kick things off here, three quick reminders. First,

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Speaker 2: if you plan to bet on any sport ever and

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Speaker 2: you still haven't downloaded the award winning Action Network app,

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Speaker 2: what are you doing. It's got betting tools, It lets

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Speaker 2: you shop for the best lines, and it's got analysis

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Speaker 2: for myself, Stucky and the whole Action Network team. And

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Speaker 2: most importantly, it lets you track every bet that you make.

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Speaker 2: Number two, if you need to reference our Sunday six

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Speaker 2: Pack picks anytime, all you have to do is use

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Speaker 2: the Action Network app and follow Sunday six Pack because

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Speaker 2: we use that account to track those picks there they're

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Speaker 2: posted every Friday. And finally, in case you haven't checked

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Speaker 2: out our other episodes here on the Action Network podcast,

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Speaker 2: our Action teammates Brandon Anderson and Raheem Palmer do shorter

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Speaker 2: NFL betting shows every Monday and Friday, which cover betting recaps,

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Speaker 2: Monday night football previews, look at lines, and basically anything

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Speaker 2: that Stucky and I didn't touch on here. Raheem and

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Speaker 2: Brandon crush it, so definitely check them out. Oh and

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Speaker 2: I got a shout out my dude, Brandon a sire.

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Speaker 2: So I actually got to hang out with Sean Kerner

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Speaker 2: for his birthday over the weekend and one of his

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Speaker 2: boys listened to our pod. He's a big fan, so

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Speaker 2: shouts to Brandon. He said something about our pot is,

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Speaker 2: which is I think would be a compliment to both

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Speaker 2: of us. He said, your picks are a lot more

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Speaker 2: disgusting than mine, but you're winning him over, like you're

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Speaker 2: always convincing him to go that way. So like I

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Speaker 2: was like, oh, yeah, I love that because I hate

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Speaker 2: making disgusting picks. But I know Stucky will also love

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Speaker 2: that because he loves making disgusting picks.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I love doing it. Took me a while to

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Speaker 3: get over the hurdle the college. It's still but NFL

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Speaker 3: if I'm getting over seven and I like the spot

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Speaker 3: and the number click click click. Yeah, So we're gonna

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Speaker 3: get We're gonna get to some of those tonight.

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Speaker 2: Yeah you worry, Oh yeah, and yeah. Let's get into

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Speaker 2: it with the Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 2: It's week four. Let's get to Thursday Night Football. It's

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Speaker 2: not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: So we got the Cincinnati Bengals fresh off that. I

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Speaker 2: don't even know if we should call it an upset

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Speaker 2: at this point because Pittsburgh looking kind of shaky, but

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Speaker 2: you know the upset in Hindsfield of the Steelers Jaguars

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Speaker 2: coming off same old, same o getting beat by double digits.

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Speaker 2: Seven and a half is the lineup BETMGM, the official

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Speaker 2: odds provider of the pod. The total forty five and

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Speaker 2: a half stuck. What are your thoughts on this game

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Speaker 2: and why should we bet the Bengals?

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Speaker 3: I just bet over. It's a primetime game. All the

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Speaker 3: primetime games go over. I think broadtime games are eight

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Speaker 3: and one now to the over on the year. I'm

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Speaker 3: sure there will be some regression coming in that department.

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Speaker 3: But Jags are playing fast. I don't know why, because

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Speaker 3: they're at a talent deficiency. They should be playing slower.

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Speaker 3: Bengals are playing slower for what it's worth. But you know,

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Speaker 3: Jacks are doing a couple of things. Well, they're running

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Speaker 3: the ball decently well. The problem is the Bengals run

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Speaker 3: defense has been great this year. They're only allowing three

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Speaker 3: point three yards per carry. That's fourth in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: The Jags run defense actually pretty decent compared to what

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Speaker 3: I thought it would be coming into the year. But

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Speaker 3: they're obviously vulnerable against the pass. They don't generate much pressure.

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Speaker 3: Their secondary is very weak. They just traded CJ. Henderson

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Speaker 3: wasn't anything great anyway, but then he missed last week.

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Speaker 3: But secondary can be spread out and exploited. I'm assuming

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Speaker 3: that's what's gonna happen with Burrow. You know, Trevor Lawrence

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Speaker 3: did some things last week to show me that he's improving.

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Speaker 3: Right He had a Brewer you know, his first start,

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Speaker 3: you can throw it out when he's a rookie, second

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Speaker 3: start out a face of Fangio defense that's just been

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Speaker 3: suffocating everyone. And then last week he gets a little

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Speaker 3: easier defense than if you look at as like adjusted

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Speaker 3: completion percentage, there were some progress there. Looked a little

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Speaker 3: more comfortable. But you know, this is a rookies are

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Speaker 3: still oh to nine against the spread this year where

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Speaker 3: they don't play each other. Mac Jones beat Wilson and

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Speaker 3: that was the only cover. And now this is a

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Speaker 3: short week on the road. You know, for a rookie

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Speaker 3: quarterback and a coach, that's just not impressing. Either of us.

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Speaker 3: You know, Thursday Night Football home favorites have had the

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Speaker 3: edge in the pass like they are about fifty six

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Speaker 3: percent against the spread since two thousand and three.

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Speaker 2: The Bengals do have a.

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Speaker 3: Couple concerning injuries in the secondary. Jesse Bates is out,

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Speaker 3: a Wuzia is out. Are the Jags a team that

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Speaker 3: can exploit that? You know, maybe for a backdoor I

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Speaker 3: make this lie. I actually show a little bit of

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Speaker 3: value in the Jags, Like, but I'm close to seven,

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Speaker 3: not enough to play it, thank god. Plus I'd look

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Speaker 3: for reasons not to play Thursday Night Football. The injuries

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Speaker 3: and the secondary for the Bengals. You know, Bates is

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Speaker 3: a really good player, and the corner depth is questionable.

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Speaker 3: Now with Lawrence looking a little better and me thinking

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Speaker 3: that Barrow is gonna have success throwing the ball kept

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Speaker 3: me off the under here, although I would lean that

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Speaker 3: way a bit. Ultimately, I think this is just a

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Speaker 3: great teaser piece. So tease the Bengals down from seven

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Speaker 3: and a half to one and a half. They should

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Speaker 3: find a way to win this game. Ultimately, it comes

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Speaker 3: down to the Bengals defense is playing really well this

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Speaker 3: year and Barrow is obviously much better right now than

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Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence and the Bengals offense overall is as well.

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Speaker 3: So at home short week as a favorite against a

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Speaker 3: rookie quarterback and a coach that's the Bengals. If this

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Speaker 3: was under seven, I would take I would look at

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Speaker 3: potentially taking them too high for me to take the Bengals.

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Speaker 3: But it's a perfect teaser piece coming down across seven

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Speaker 3: and three.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love the teaser. The Bengals defense, they're right

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Speaker 2: there with Carolina. Is these two defenses that kind of

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Speaker 2: may enter that conversation of Okay, this is actually a

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Speaker 2: good that hasn't been the last few years at least.

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Speaker 2: The key for me in this game and the same

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Speaker 2: thing that kind of kept me off the Jags, well

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Speaker 2: besides Erbert Meyer, but the thing that maybe scared for

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Speaker 2: the Jags last week going against the Cardinals is because

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Speaker 2: the Bengals are kind of like the Cardinals. They both

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Speaker 2: blitzed a lot. The Bengals are seventh and blitz rate.

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Speaker 2: They blitzed thirty eight times already this year, according to

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Speaker 2: Pro Football Reference. Trevor Lawrence against the blitz eight of

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Speaker 2: twenty three, one touchdown, two picks, four point four yards

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Speaker 2: in attempt. He's been abysmal against, which makes.

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Speaker 3: Sense to you know, the rookie quarterback trying to slow

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Speaker 3: everything down and then you're getting blitz. It's hard to

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Speaker 3: process everything early on in your.

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Speaker 2: Career, especially if your coach doesn't know what the fuck he's

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Speaker 2: talking about. But Bengals number one in early down pass

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Speaker 2: success rate. Remember we like to filter out for early

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Speaker 2: downs because third downs a lot of luck involved penalties.

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Speaker 2: You know, you're sometimes you're playing the sticks, you give

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Speaker 2: up a fifty yard touchdown. You know, a lot of

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Speaker 2: things go go crazy on third down, but early downs

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Speaker 2: more repeatable. Bengals number one early down pass success rate,

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Speaker 2: number four early down run success rate on defense. So

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Speaker 2: you look at this Bengals team. They have enough big

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Speaker 2: time players with Burrow and Jamar Chase and Joe Mixon

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Speaker 2: to get the job done. And this Jaguars defense really

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Speaker 2: isn't going to give give them much of a fight.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm with you. Tease the Bengals down. I

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Speaker 2: expect the Bengals to win sizably. So if I had

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Speaker 2: to take a side, even at the seven with the

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Speaker 2: hook seven and a half, I would still take the Bengals.

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Speaker 2: You look historically you mentioned stuck the favorites on Thursday night,

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Speaker 2: and if you actually filter out by favorites by seven

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Speaker 2: or more points, they are forty two and twenty since

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Speaker 2: two thousand and three against the spread sixty eight percent.

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Speaker 2: And we've talked about this. When you have the interior team,

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Speaker 2: it's really tough when you don't have those extra days

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Speaker 2: of preparation to figure out a way to beat expectations.

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Speaker 2: That's that's really what it comes down to.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, scheme, you know, scheme to compensate for some of

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Speaker 3: your deficienc There's.

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Speaker 2: A handful of coaches that are good at that, and

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Speaker 2: you know, in any given week you'll see a couple

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Speaker 2: even surprise teams haveing just a really good scheme that week.

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Speaker 2: You know, big back to the Giants beating the Seahawks

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Speaker 2: last year late in the year.

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Speaker 3: But you also are playing on Sunday and then playing Thursday,

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Speaker 3: and you have to travel in between there, which eats

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Speaker 3: into your preparation time as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, because most of those favorites are home favorites, obviously

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Speaker 2: it's gonna it's more rare to be a minus seven

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Speaker 2: favorite on the road. That's pretty much the analysis Trevor

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Speaker 2: Lawrence sucks against the Blitz that we have seen nothing

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Speaker 2: to suggest that there are thirty to thirty one teams

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Speaker 2: better than the Jacksonville Jaguars right now. So Bengals tease

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Speaker 2: them down. Take the seven and a half if you want.

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Speaker 2: It's not my style, but I wouldn't argue with it.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get into our pep talk. So for

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Speaker 2: today's Coaches pep Talk, our producer Matt Mitchell has actually

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Speaker 2: not chosen something from the film Blue Chips. I'm glad

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Speaker 2: he started watching other things. There's a lot of content

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Speaker 2: out there.

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Speaker 3: You keep playing the way you're playing, we're gonna get an.

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Speaker 2: Ass feed again to night. So this week we got

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Speaker 2: to clip from one of our favorite shows and one

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Speaker 2: of our favorite clips from the show The Wire and

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Speaker 2: Stuck who he dedicated this one too.

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Speaker 3: It's my favorite shove all time. I got my cuddies

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Speaker 3: Jim cause he was the man and that show. Share

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Speaker 3: it on. Yeah, we got to dedicate it again. Turbo

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Speaker 3: Mine until he wins. He's down there in the humidity

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Speaker 3: acting like he knows what he's doing, and I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure that's quite the case. So this clip will fit

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Speaker 3: well to that.

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Speaker 2: Hey, what's up, playboy? How come you wearing that suit?

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Speaker 3: Beat? For real?

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Speaker 2: It's eighty five degrees out here. You're trying to be

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Speaker 2: like pat ridleys Man Luke de pup beat a pup please?

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Speaker 2: You're walking around with a fake clickboy. You can't even

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Speaker 2: read a playbook, be for real. Like, my favorite thing

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Speaker 2: every week is just finding something that the dumb thing

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Speaker 2: that Urban Meyer did this week, Like this week it

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Speaker 2: was the trade. It was it was the trade of

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Speaker 2: of C. J. Henderson for like a you know, like

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Speaker 2: the thirty sixth best tight end in the NFL. But

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Speaker 2: I did promise Matt that we weren't going to have

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Speaker 2: a fifteen minute wire TANGI do. Let's have like a

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Speaker 2: seven minute wire TANGI.

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Speaker 3: That's fine, me say.

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Speaker 2: This one time. They'll do not yet to wear shipper?

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Speaker 2: What do you do? All right? What's your what's your

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Speaker 2: favorite code open from the wire? Yeah? You already know

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Speaker 2: mine because I just posted it in the slack. I

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Speaker 2: think that was one of my favorite parts of the wire,

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Speaker 2: just all those code opens.

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Speaker 3: I think it has to be Omar and brother of Mazone.

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Speaker 2: Oh, that's a good one. I was gonna go with

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Speaker 2: snooping and nail gun like the season four I think

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Speaker 2: if anyone hasn't seen that first YouTube Omar Brother Mazone,

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Speaker 2: but also YouTube Snoop nail Gun or Snoop the Wire

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Speaker 2: nail Gun.

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Speaker 1: Hey guys, this is the show producer Matt Mitchell. I'm

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Speaker 1: so sorry to interrupt Stucky and Raybond did actually go

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Speaker 1: on to talk about the Wire for twenty more minutes,

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Speaker 1: And if you wanted to hear that, I know you

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Speaker 1: may be thinking to yourself, this.

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Speaker 2: Is bullshit, So just you.

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Speaker 1: Know, hit those guys up on Twitter if that's something

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Speaker 1: you wanted to hear. But I'll just leave you with

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Speaker 1: my favorite quote from The Wire.

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Speaker 2: I'll take any money if he giving it away.

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Speaker 1: And then we'll keep this going here at the Action

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Speaker 1: Network Podcast. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 2: That was our coaches pep talk Erban Mayer still needs it.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into our week four to six pack Thursday

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Speaker 2: for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack. For

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Speaker 2: everyone not familiar, what we do here is we give

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Speaker 2: three picks each for sides. We cannot pick the same side,

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Speaker 2: but we can be on opposite sides. Two points for

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Speaker 2: our first two, one point for our third, and then

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Speaker 2: we also get a point for our favorite total, which

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Speaker 2: we do in the next segment. I think for the

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Speaker 2: first time I have a lead on Stuck. I think

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Speaker 2: the one time I won, I came from behind, So

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Speaker 2: I just like my first early season lead. But it's

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Speaker 2: fourteen eleven. Probably would be tied if you hadn't been

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Speaker 2: to Jaguars twice. But deliver, you learn, and I got

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Speaker 2: the first pick this week, right, you have fourteen eleven

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Speaker 2: yep for the first pick of the week four Sunday

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Speaker 2: six pack. I am going with the Baltimore Ravens plus

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Speaker 2: one at the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 3: It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the God will not save you.

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Speaker 2: I love this pick because look at who the Broncos

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Speaker 2: have played thus far. They played the Giants in week one,

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Speaker 2: they played the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week two, and then

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Speaker 2: they played the New York Jets in Week three. So

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Speaker 2: the Broncos have looked great. Teddy Bridgewater is playing great,

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Speaker 2: but we know absolutely nothing about the Denver Broncos. Why

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Speaker 2: because they've played nobody. I love the Bilo spot for Baltimore.

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Speaker 2: We know Baltimore can beat quality teams, even if it's ugly.

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Speaker 2: They beat the Chiefs in a crazy turn of events.

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Speaker 2: But I like Baltimore in this spot. You know they're

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Speaker 2: getting you know, Williams back. That's gonna help their run defense.

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Speaker 2: We know the Broncos are gonna want to run the football.

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Speaker 2: That's what they that's what they kind of do, run

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Speaker 2: the ball. Play defense, well, playing defense is great, and

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Speaker 2: they have a lot of talented pieces, but Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 2: throws that all out of the out of the window.

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Speaker 2: He's just gonna make off schedule plays that can beat

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Speaker 2: you in a way that Daniel Jones and Zaz Wilson

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Speaker 2: and Trevor Lawrence really aren't or they're not gonna make

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Speaker 2: enough mistakes. They're gonna make too many mistakes to overcome,

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Speaker 2: you know, if they do make a good playoff schedule.

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Speaker 2: And then on the other side, I just think that

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Speaker 2: the like the Broncos on offense, going against this Ravens

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Speaker 2: d they're gonna blitz The Broncos really haven't faced the

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Speaker 2: ferocious pass rush yet either, when you talk about the Giants,

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Speaker 2: when you talk about the Jags and the Jets. So

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Speaker 2: this is just a step up in competition. For the Broncos,

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Speaker 2: who I think if they started the year with almost

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Speaker 2: any other combination of teams where you didn't include like

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Speaker 2: three of these teams of these league worst teams, they

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Speaker 2: probably would be, you know, getting points right here. But

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Speaker 2: we got a situation where you're getting the Ravens getting points.

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Speaker 2: And I'm still at a point like I'm not you know,

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Speaker 2: there's some ugly picks that I really like, but I'm

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Speaker 2: at a point where I still see value on some

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Speaker 2: of these teams that I'm getting his underdogs that are

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Speaker 2: quality teams, and the Ravens, I still think they're a

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Speaker 2: quality team. Lamar Jackson in his career roteen and seven

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Speaker 2: against the spread on the road. Harbaugh twenty nine and

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Speaker 2: twenty one against the spread fifty eight percent as a

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Speaker 2: road underdog. So I love the Ravens, glove them down

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Speaker 2: to a pick them. I think they win this game.

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Speaker 2: I just I just don't trust Denver's strength to schedule.

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Speaker 2: Uh And you know, askby coming into the season, who

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Speaker 2: would have won this game. I've said the Ravens. Nothing

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Speaker 2: has dissuaded me from that. I would have loved if

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Speaker 2: they lost. I mean, I know you're a Ravens fan stuck.

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Speaker 2: But I would have loved if they lost to Detroit

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Speaker 2: only because I probably would have gotten even another half

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Speaker 2: point to a point. But Baltimore Ravens plus one at Denver.

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Speaker 3: You're not allowed to use Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh

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Speaker 3: against the spread trends with this game because Teddy Bridgewater

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Speaker 3: is thirty eight and fourteen against the career. Yeah, but

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Speaker 3: on the other road, he just covers every week no

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Speaker 3: matter what.

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Speaker 2: Now, Yeah, seventy three percent.

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Speaker 3: Against the spread in his career, thirty eight and fourteen

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Speaker 3: Teddy covers. Man, I make Baltimore slight favorite here there.

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Speaker 3: I actually prefer the under though. I mean Dever is

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Speaker 3: three note of the under. Their offense hasn't really exploded

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Speaker 3: and they've played you know, the Jags defense, the Jets defense.

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Speaker 3: They haven't played like the three best defenses in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: And you know they're not putting up thirty points it's played.

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Speaker 3: They play slower so to the Ravens. A lot of

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Speaker 3: runs I expect in this game. And here's the thing

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Speaker 3: with Denver. Bridgewaters numbers under pressure look great this year.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look at the defense as the secondariesit He's faced.

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Speaker 3: Jimmy Smith's now back for the Ravens, should get a

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Speaker 3: close to a full workload this year, so that the

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Speaker 3: secondary is now coming together. You mentioned Brandon Williams justin

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Speaker 3: Houston back Derek Wolf. I don't think he's gonna play

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Speaker 3: this year this week, but he'll be back soon too.

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Speaker 3: So the Ravens are gonna bring pressure. They can match

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Speaker 3: up with this defense. And look, if you look at

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Speaker 3: the two of the top three quarterbacks have taken the

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Speaker 3: most shots twenty yards downfield, Bridgewater and Lamar. But if

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Speaker 3: you look at this game, I think that's gonna significantly

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Speaker 3: change because one the whole premise of the Fangio defense

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Speaker 3: is to take away big plays. So I don't think

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Speaker 3: that there's gonna be You know, the Ravens played the Sheefs,

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Speaker 3: which is which statistically has the worst defense NFL run

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Speaker 3: pass whatever. You know, they played the Lions with a

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Speaker 3: bunch of rookies in their secondary that were missed assignments.

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Speaker 3: There were people running all over White Mark He's Brown

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Speaker 3: dropped seventeen touchdowns. They were taking a lot of defense

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Speaker 3: that's different against this Denver defense. And on the other side,

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Speaker 3: and I think Lamar will be under pressure here a

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Speaker 3: little bit on the other side of the ball with Denver.

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Speaker 3: When Handler's not on the field. If you look at

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Speaker 3: Teddy Bridgewater, it's Teddy check down again. So a lot

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Speaker 3: of the shots are him. Not only has he stretched

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Speaker 3: the field out, but they're taking a lot of Now

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Speaker 3: Judy is gone, Judy's out, Handler's out, So the speed

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Speaker 3: element of this offense is missing. So it's gonna be

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Speaker 3: a lot of run, a lot of short passes, rely

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Speaker 3: on the defense. Lamar's probably the wild card here. Maybe

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Speaker 3: Tucker Pit's another who knows an altitude, but he's gonna

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Speaker 3: hit this week.

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Speaker 2: He might break his own record.

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Speaker 3: It's sixty nine maybe, But yeah, So I mean, I

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Speaker 3: make Baltimore a slight favorite, so I don't necessarily disagree

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Speaker 3: with you. And we're gonna learn a lot about Denver

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Speaker 3: this week. But that Denver offense has been doing that much.

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Speaker 3: They lost two of their speediest receivers, and you know,

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Speaker 3: while the the defensive line of Baltimore is getting healthier,

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Speaker 3: Denver's two starting guards might be out this week. They

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Speaker 3: signed a couple guys from the practice squad. It looks like,

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Speaker 3: you know, rise Near and Glasgow are likely out. They

401
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Speaker 3: didn't practice today, so this this offense is pretty banged up,

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Speaker 3: so I like under forty five. Don't hate your pick,

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Speaker 3: all right. For my first pick and the second overall

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Speaker 3: pick of the Sunday six pack, it's time to get ugly, people,

405
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Speaker 3: We're gonna get ugly right off the bat. I'm going

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Speaker 3: with the New York Football Jets plus seven and a

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Speaker 3: half at home against the Tennessee Titans. You're wearing Jets gear,

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Speaker 3: which I think is not a good sign because you

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Speaker 3: were Jags gear yes last week.

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Speaker 2: Kind of do the reverse jinks or is it just

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Speaker 2: the regular jinks? I don't know. Notice is Broadway Joe

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Speaker 2: not Broadway Zach?

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Speaker 3: All Right, Well, look, I wouldn't go below seven on

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Speaker 3: this if it's gonna keep dropping. But I assumed going

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Speaker 3: into this game, I was pretty confident AJ Brown was

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Speaker 3: not gonna play, which he's not. I don't think he's

417
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Speaker 3: officially been ruled out, but he has hamstring injury. And

418
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Speaker 3: then last week Coolio Jones doesn't play in the fourth quarter.

419
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Speaker 3: Rabel comes out and says he's managing his workload. I'm like,

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Speaker 3: that's a bunch of bullshit. He's hurt, so then it

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Speaker 3: came out today, so you might see by the time

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Speaker 3: you listen to this, this line keep coming down. He didn't

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Speaker 3: practice that. I don't think they're gonna, like, why risk

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Speaker 3: hamstring injuries with your two star receivers against the Jets.

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Speaker 3: I don't think either played. It'd be shocked if either plays, so,

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Speaker 3: especially Julio Jones at his age and how fragile he is,

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Speaker 3: so I think both their star receivers are out. When

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Speaker 3: you look at the Jets, their defense is holding up

429
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Speaker 3: pretty well against the run. They got a pretty good

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Speaker 3: defensive line that can hold its own. I think that

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Speaker 3: they can at least not allow Derrick Henry to run

432
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 3: wild on them without too much help. Marcus may is out,

433
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 3: which hurts a little bit on the back end, but

434
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,119
Speaker 3: that loss is neutralized by the fact that I'm pretty

435
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 3: sure that Brown and Jones are going to be out.

436
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 3: So you know, this Titans offense all of a sudden

437
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 3: becomes a lot less potent. It's also on the other

438
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,160
Speaker 3: side of the ball. The Jets offense has been perfect,

439
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 3: just no doubt about it. But they've played statistically three

440
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 3: of the top five pass defenses in the NFL. Zach

441
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,439
Speaker 3: Wilson at his first start on the road at Carolina

442
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 3: defense's playing well. Then you'd face a Belichick and a

443
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,679
Speaker 3: Fangio defense in back to back weeks. That's brutal. I mean,

444
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,360
Speaker 3: he's been under constant pressure. The offensive line is a mess. Well,

445
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 3: now he gets to come home and face a Tennessee

446
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 3: team that has an awful defense. This is a bottom

447
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,360
Speaker 3: five defense. This is a defense that doesn't generate pressure.

448
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 3: He should feel a lot more comfortable. I'm banking on

449
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 3: him looking a lot like you know, Trevor Lawrence looked

450
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,719
Speaker 3: a lot better against at Arizona defense after facing the Broncos.

451
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 3: I think you'll see the same thing here at home.

452
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 3: Hopefully Jamison Crowder plays. He's practiced in a limited fashion today,

453
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:00,640
Speaker 3: but they need him in this lot. I think he'd

454
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 3: be really important. But they should be able to put

455
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 3: some drives together for the first time this year because

456
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 3: the Tennessee defense is that bad. And you know, the

457
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 3: Tennessee is a team that just it kind of plays down.

458
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,120
Speaker 3: We talked about this a lot. They play down to competition.

459
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 3: They're seven and two and they're last nine on the road.

460
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 3: Five of them came by six or less. Two of

461
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,160
Speaker 3: them in overtime. This is a team that's just gonna

462
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 3: play close games. I was not impressed with the Titans

463
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,640
Speaker 3: last week. I mean they beat the Colts by nine

464
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 3: at home, Like I said, plus three and turnovers. The

465
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:35,119
Speaker 3: Colts lose their star guard, three defensive starters, they have

466
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 3: a quarterback playing with two broken ankles, like with no weapons.

467
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 3: I think the Jets could do enough to get this cover. Here.

468
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 3: Another reason why this is a good bylow spot. Teams

469
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,160
Speaker 3: that score under ten points in the NFL the next week,

470
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 3: they're one hundred and fifty two to ninety seven and

471
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 3: four against the spread. The next week that's sixty one

472
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 3: percent against the spread. So I think this is the

473
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 3: time I will tell you look the Jags. I don't

474
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,399
Speaker 3: regret play the Jats last week, ever played them two

475
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 3: weeks ago. I haven't touched any of these other rookie quarterbacks.

476
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 3: This is the time to bet the Jets. I only

477
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 3: bet the Jets once last year. I hate this team

478
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 3: and they covered for us. This might be the only

479
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,239
Speaker 3: time I bet the Jets this year. I think this

480
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 3: is the spot against the defense with an offense that

481
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 3: will likely be missing its top two receivers. And a

482
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 3: run defense that I think can hold up here. Defense

483
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 3: is actually playing really well when compared to the talent

484
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 3: with that, so I think Sala is doing some good

485
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 3: things scheme wise with that defense. And I think Wilson

486
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 3: will actually look competent this week and put some drives together,

487
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 3: which it might say something about him, but I think

488
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 3: it's gonna say mainly with this Tennessee defense is so

489
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 3: give me the Jets over a touchdown at home.

490
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 2: You just convinced me to play the under on this game.

491
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 2: Everything you said, it's like, just like you said, you

492
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 2: rather play the Ravens Broncos under. I think I just

493
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 2: rather played his game under. I do agree. I think

494
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 2: the spot is great. I mean you mentioned teams that

495
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 2: don't score a lot straight up shutouts, an underdog off

496
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 2: a shutout versus a favorite not coming off of buye

497
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 2: so as long as the favorite doesn't have like long

498
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 2: rest thirty nine and twenty sixty six percent since two

499
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 2: thousand and three. So you know, we saw Miami squeak

500
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,719
Speaker 2: out the cover last week. Want to know this season,

501
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 2: but yeah, all my trends are on the Jets. The

502
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 2: one thing that scares me, I have like seven trends

503
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 2: on the Jets that are kind of similar, like sixty

504
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 2: percent by low spots, you know, bet against the public

505
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 2: after a big game sixty one percent, coming off a

506
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 2: shutout sixty six percent, you know, three game losing streak,

507
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 2: you know, sixty four percent. So a lot of things

508
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 2: that suggest you know, the Jets are right player. But

509
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 2: one thing that scares me is that the Titans issues

510
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 2: on pass defense have been explosive plays on third down.

511
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 2: I just don't know if the Jets are in a

512
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 2: spot that they can create those. Remember now, Elijah Moore

513
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 2: looks like he might miss, and like I mean, Corey Davis,

514
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,239
Speaker 2: you know, Christian Fulton's actually playing quite well. So I

515
00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 2: just I don't know where those come from. I mean,

516
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 2: this might make he's sick. But the Titans are actually

517
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 2: number two in the league in early down success rate

518
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 2: against the pass on defense. It's been all third down

519
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 2: like issues for that. Remember Seattle had like the big

520
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 2: playing third down. So that's what scares me. Maybe the

521
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 2: Jets could do that, but I think I'd still rather

522
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 2: take the under because I don't I mean, they played

523
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 2: a twenty five to sixteen game against the Colts last week.

524
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: I don't know if the Jets can beat that, so

525
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 2: I get it. It's the right spot. I probably will

526
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: end up going to under in this one, though, and

527
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 2: continuing to fade these rookie quarterbacks, and so they show

528
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: me something I don't hate to pick at all. All Right,

529
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 2: For the third overall pick and my second pick of

530
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 2: the week four Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

531
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 2: Seattle Seahawks plus three at the San Francisco forty nine ers.

532
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: So I love Seattle here because it's just a bi

533
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 2: lo spot on a team that is better than its

534
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: record at one and two. Throughout his career, you know,

535
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,479
Speaker 2: Pete Carroll always kind of been a little you know,

536
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 2: some of the things you could question his philosophies, but

537
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 2: in these kinds of situations they generally get it right.

538
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson Pete Carroll together multi game losing streak thirteen

539
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 2: to two and one against the spread. It's rarely ever happens,

540
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 2: so you rarely ever get the spot. Russell Wilson's been

541
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,199
Speaker 2: the quarterback for what nine years now, sixteen times this

542
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 2: has happened, where you even get a spot like this

543
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 2: Seahawk coming off multiple losses, they're covering eighty seven percent

544
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 2: of the time. I think they do it again, and

545
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 2: I love fading. Kyle Shanahan is a favorite. He's eight

546
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 2: and nineteen. There's thirty percent against the spread when the

547
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 2: Niners are a favorite. Faded him in the spot last week.

548
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: It worked out doing it again. I think when you

549
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 2: look at Seattle and you look at how they match

550
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 2: up with San Francisco, San Francisco still has cornerback issue.

551
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 2: I think this defense. The difference between this defense and

552
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 2: the twenty nineteen defense is that the twenty nineteen defense,

553
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 2: you still had Richard Sherman playing at a high level.

554
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,640
Speaker 2: You had the cornerback situation good enough to the point

555
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 2: where you didn't really want to you know, with that

556
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 2: four man rush and you were playing seven in coverage.

557
00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 2: You didn't want to attack the outside against this team.

558
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 2: Didn't want to attack the slot corner. No, there's not

559
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 2: really a strong corner to speak of in this defense.

560
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 2: You know, maybe Leonora will be good one day, but

561
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 2: you saw how Aaron Rodgers kind of just picked and

562
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 2: choosed his matchup with Davontae Adams. Seattle has two receivers

563
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 2: that they could do that with. They have a quarterback

564
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 2: that's right up there with Aaron Rodgers when you talk about,

565
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 2: you know, talent level and being able to just drop

566
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 2: a pinpoint deep ball in or pinpoint pass outside. And

567
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 2: then on the other side, I mean Seattle's defense, we

568
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 2: know it's not great, but San Francisco's defense is only

569
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 2: nineteenth in DVOA. They haven't been that great either, So

570
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 2: I just don't like last week the reason I was

571
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:40,119
Speaker 2: betting against San Francisco was I just felt like San

572
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 2: Francisco is no longer dominant enough on defense, and they're

573
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 2: still great on the on the OA, and that that

574
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 2: is when where they are great, but they're just not

575
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 2: great enough on defense to where I don't think it's

576
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 2: gonna come when it it's a matchup like this, it's

577
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 2: gonna come down to the two quarterbacks, and it was

578
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 2: gonna be Aaron Rodgers versus Jim and I feel the

579
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 2: same way in this one. I don't think San Francisco's

580
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 2: dominant enough, especially with this running game in flux where

581
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 2: we saw if Yuschek get more snaps in the backfield

582
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 2: than any half back last week sixty nine percent of

583
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 2: the snaps, Thurman fifty nine percent, No other tailback played.

584
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,199
Speaker 2: They got everyone involved in the run game. And you

585
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 2: know Kyle Shanahan, he's he's working hard to try to

586
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 2: scheme up ways for this offense and for Jimmy, but

587
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: he obviously doesn't trust him in the red zone. Took

588
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 2: him out on fourth and goal to bring in Trey Lance. Like,

589
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 2: I just think that San Francisco's not dominant enough to

590
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: where they're gonna blow out Seattle. Seattle's gonna be there

591
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 2: and it's gonna come down to Jimmy versus Russ, and

592
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 2: that's advantage. Russ loved the spot. Russell Wilson is a

593
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: road dog, twenty and eleven in his career against the

594
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 2: spread sixty five percent. Even Carol, just take out Russ.

595
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 2: Just Carol overall, you know, thirty six and twenty one,

596
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 2: sixty three percent against the spread off the loss, and

597
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: again with Russ thirteen to two off a multi game

598
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,479
Speaker 2: losing street. This is just the spot for Seattle. I

599
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 2: love him in his spot. I don't think they go

600
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 2: to one and three.

601
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 3: I have to disagree here because the game is going

602
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: to be decided by a field goal. If it was

603
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 3: plus three and a half, I would.

604
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 2: Agree the game though that's the thing.

605
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 3: That field goal, that's fine, but I would just look,

606
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 3: russ should have success against this beat up secondary. The

607
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 3: forty nine er should all have success on offense.

608
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 2: But look, Russell.

609
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 3: Wilson is an underdog in his career has been very

610
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: good twenty three to nine and two against the spread.

611
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 3: So that is what thirty four games. In those thirty

612
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 3: four games, any spread, you should only tease dogs generally

613
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 3: between one and a half and three, but any spread,

614
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 3: he has covered the six point t's thirty two out

615
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 3: of thirty four times. That's ninety four percent. And when

616
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 3: the spread is between one and a half and three

617
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: points as it is here, and when you should tease

618
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 3: dogs fifteen to zero. So this is a perfect teaser

619
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 3: piece for me with the Seahawks. Should keep this within

620
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 3: one possession. So yeah, I'm I chased him with Cincy,

621
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 3: so right, I mean you're.

622
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 2: Right about that. I love him as a tease, I

623
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 2: love him on the spread. I love him as a

624
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 2: a moneyline dog. Like I just think this is the

625
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: spot for Seattle. I'm fading Jimmy G Like this is

626
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 2: like these are the kind of picks I'm trying to make.

627
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 2: So I don't have to go like the Jets. It's like,

628
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: I'm trying to take quality teams with quality quarterbacks, you know,

629
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 2: early in the year when we're kind of panicked about them,

630
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:17,479
Speaker 2: and then we're all down and them and they're one

631
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 2: and two. Like if Seattle beats Tennessee or they hold

632
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 2: that week against Minnesota because they've had a double digit

633
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 2: weeed in every game, if they beat Tennessee or Minnesota

634
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 2: or both like this, this line is closer to a

635
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 2: pick them. So give me Seattle. But your point is

636
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: taken about the Teas.

637
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 3: It's a good point, all right. Well, I don't think

638
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 3: I've got a quality quarterback all year, so we're going

639
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 3: to keep that trend going. With my second pick and

640
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 3: the fourth overall, the Sunday six back, I'm going with

641
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh Steelers plus six and a half at bet

642
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 3: MGM at Green Bay in Lambeau and the washed Ben Roethlisberg.

643
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 3: I watched that game last week and he looked horrendous.

644
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 3: But if you didn't know that I was picking the

645
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 3: Steelers this week, you haven't been listening to this podcast.

646
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 3: I knew the classic Tomlin spot.

647
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 2: What a rah Ron Mike Tomlin spot.

648
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: We win the game with this cruel bodies right here today,

649
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 3: ring the only game to day. Tomlin has some deficiencies

650
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 3: in in game management and other things, and his team

651
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 3: can come out flat. But when they need a win

652
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 3: and when they have the US against the world mentality,

653
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 3: there is no better motivator.

654
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 2: Let the greatest of all time look at your word.

655
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 3: And people used to say a narrative, narrative. This just

656
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 3: happens every time, over and over and over and over

657
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 3: again for years. Give you some numbers. Tomlin rode favorite

658
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 3: against the losing team sixteen thirty and one against the

659
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 3: spread thirty four point eight percent, failing to cover by

660
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 3: three and a half points per game negative twenty nine percent.

661
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 3: ROI dead last of every single coach who's ever coached

662
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 3: the NFL in our Actions Lab database since two thousand

663
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 3: and three.

664
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 2: I don't want to hear about the labor pays man.

665
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 2: Deliver the damn baby.

666
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 3: Tomlin is a road dog against the winning team eighteen

667
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 3: and six against the spread seventy five percent, covering by

668
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 3: an average margin of six points forty eight percent. ROI

669
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 3: number one of all one hundred and thirty coaches in

670
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 3: our database since two thousand and three.

671
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 2: Bring you all game to day. You ain't new to

672
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 2: us no more. Now you know what I mean. Dominate

673
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 2: this football game.

674
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 3: Look, they're one and two, they're going to Green Bay.

675
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 3: Everyone has rid them off. Season's over. Ben is washed.

676
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 3: This team sucks. Blow it up. They have no chance here.

677
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 3: This is where Tomlin drives, right, we see it all

678
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: the time. Usually wins these games outright like they'll find

679
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 3: a way to win the like they didn't Buffalo. Somehow,

680
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if they find a way to

681
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 3: win this game. Their defense should be a lot healthier.

682
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 3: That's what people haven't been recognizing. Mick I fitz Patchrick's

683
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 3: played pretty bad. He'll be fine. But you know they

684
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 3: haven't at Hayden and Bush at times they didn't have

685
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 3: Watt and high Smith. Those guys are all practicing, and

686
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 3: I expect them to play. You know, I think this

687
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 3: is gonna be a lower scoring game, which gives more

688
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 3: value to the dog trying to find it. See if

689
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 3: he can get the seven, which is obviously important. I'd

690
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 3: buy that up to you know, minus one twenty. So

691
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be low scoring game, which provides

692
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 3: even more value to the underdog here. But I'm trusting

693
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 3: the spot. I'm trusting the Pittsburgh will be able to

694
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 3: run the ball a little more than they have been

695
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 3: against this green Bay defense, and green Bay won't. I

696
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 3: don't think they're gonna have mvs and people are like, oh,

697
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 3: I'm vs. He stakes No. Number one, he has huge games.

698
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 3: Number two, he's the he's the field stretcher. So he's

699
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 3: the guy that doesn't matter if he's you know, catching

700
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 3: a ball or Rogers misses him or he's dropped. They

701
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 3: don't really have another elite speed guy like him, so

702
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 3: it makes them a little easier to defend. And then

703
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 3: focused on DeVante Adams. I think the Steelers, obviously, if

704
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 3: all their guys that are playing saying who I expect

705
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 3: to play, I think can get some pressure on Rogers

706
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 3: and just this defense. Every what happens is these Tomlin spots.

707
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 3: The defense comes out with their hair on fire, and

708
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 3: you know everyone has said this team is done. And

709
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 3: this is usually when the Steelers win the game, and

710
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 3: then everyone next week will say they're back, and then

711
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 3: they'll lose at home. That's the the Tomlin circle of life.

712
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 3: So give me the Steelers plus six. It's a game

713
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 3: I make like five and change five eight. So like

714
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 3: from a line value perspective, it's not the biggest edge,

715
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 3: but it's the spot. I bet this almost religiously. As

716
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 3: you know, there'll be times when we fade. Tomlin is

717
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 3: a road favorite later in the year, hopefully with big Ben.

718
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me the Steelers.

719
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this is a great pick. These are

720
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 2: the two that, like I was kind of hoping you

721
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 2: would take because they looked so bad. But like Tom

722
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 2: win you mentioned, like he wins these games straight up.

723
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin on the money line as a dog from

724
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 2: October on is twenty six and nineteen fifty eight percent

725
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 2: straight up. I remember, he's a dog. Dog is supposed

726
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,320
Speaker 2: to win, like you know what, forty thirty five to

727
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,400
Speaker 2: forty percent of the time, Like you know, it's just

728
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 2: been absurd with him. I mean him off a loss

729
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 2: fifty seven percent against the spread forty three and thirty

730
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 2: three a dog from week three on thirty five, fourteen

731
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 2: and two seventy one percent against the spread on the

732
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 2: road off a loss twenty two and fourteen sixty one

733
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 2: percent against the spread. I mean everything pretty much is

734
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:30,240
Speaker 2: like Tom wins spot tom Win Spot Tomin spots. Pittsburgh

735
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 2: wasn't my initial money line dog pick, but I may

736
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,359
Speaker 2: switch to them. There's a really good chance they win,

737
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 2: and they have a juicy money line right now, so

738
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 2: I do like this pick. It's the It's definitely the

739
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 2: right pick to put a.

740
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 3: Ball in this Tomlin as an underdog. This is a

741
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 3: wild stat Tomlin is an underdog against an opponent with

742
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 3: an equal or better winning percentage twenty seven six and

743
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:58,799
Speaker 3: one against the spread twenty seven to six. So I'm

744
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 3: trust that Tomlin in the spot out here wouldn't be

745
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 3: surprised if we get like a block punt Rogers gets,

746
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,319
Speaker 3: you know, throws a pick six, the Steelers will come

747
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 3: out with their hair on fire. Hopefully Ben doesn't mess

748
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 3: it all up.

749
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 2: And this is a and this is a big leftdown

750
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 2: spot for the Packers too, because it's another reason why

751
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 2: I liked him. Last week. It was like, okay, San

752
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 2: Francisco to a no, green Bay doesn't want to go

753
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 2: one and two. On primetime, you saw Aaron Rodgers like

754
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 2: he was about as happy as I've seen him in

755
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 2: Green Bay as a Packer in the last decade, you know,

756
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 2: and that post game interview said, oh, it's in football romantic,

757
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 2: like this is a perfect web down spot, like Rogers is.

758
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 3: You know, he wants to won the Super Bowl, and

759
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna be caught coasting a little bit

760
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 3: of times because the sense of urgency across the seventeen

761
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 3: game season when you play in that division, it's hard

762
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:46,839
Speaker 3: to keep up because it's like, all right, we're gonna

763
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 3: win the division and we're going to the playoffs. So

764
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 3: uh yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the package meant

765
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:51,760
Speaker 3: of the flat.

766
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, baby, let's dance.

767
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 3: All right.

768
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 2: For the fifth overall and my third pick of the week,

769
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 2: four Sunday six pack, I am going with the Minnesota

770
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,279
Speaker 2: Vikings plus one and a half at home against the

771
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:13,240
Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns. And this is another spot where I like Minnesota.

772
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: I make this a coin flip game. And so I

773
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 2: like Minnesota because you've got him at home again. You

774
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 2: know they're a home dog. Zimmer. He's got some some

775
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: kind of familiarity with the fans because he coached under him.

776
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 2: Now you know it goes both ways. Obviously the fans.

777
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 2: He's gonna understand some Missourian schemes. But I think Cleveland,

778
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,320
Speaker 2: you know, they got this kind of freebie against the

779
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 2: Bears last week in a game that I just had

780
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 2: all wrong. But Cleveland's defense, I think is still you know,

781
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 2: the jury's out. But I also think Minnesota's playing really

782
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 2: well on offense, so I think this is going to

783
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 2: kind of be a back and forth game. I think,

784
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 2: you know, even in the Vikings, you know, whether they

785
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 2: have Dalvin Cook or not, Like Alexander Maxison was great

786
00:37:52,040 --> 00:37:55,280
Speaker 2: last week. He they didn't change their offense at all

787
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 2: from Cook to Madison. So I don't really think, you know,

788
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 2: Cook is worth like much to the spread. You know,

789
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 2: running backs in the running game in general isn't. But

790
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 2: you know, I know some people may you know Dalvin

791
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 2: Cook because he banged up, that could be an issue.

792
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 2: I don't really think it is. I don't know how

793
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,760
Speaker 2: much disapplies because of the familiarity, but it's worth noting

794
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 2: Mike because it's just one of those crazy stats Mike

795
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 2: Zimmer versus a non divisional opponent on normal rest. So

796
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 2: as long as there's no biys, I always like to

797
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 2: filter out for you know, kind of outlier situations like buyes.

798
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 2: But Mike Zimmer versus a non divisional opponent normal rest

799
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 2: thirty eight and eighteen against the spread sixty eight percent.

800
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 3: Uh.

801
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:35,919
Speaker 2: And we also got Cousins at the time. He loves

802
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 2: to play as a one PM Eastern Dog. Cousins in

803
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,360
Speaker 2: his career is twenty and nine against the spread. Like

804
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 2: these are just the kind of spots where you know

805
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,280
Speaker 2: it's a toss up game. You know, people still probably

806
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 2: thinking of Minnesota is like shaky after that oh and

807
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:50,919
Speaker 2: two start, but they could easily be three and zero.

808
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 2: I think I mentioned after two weeks they were the

809
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 2: only team that was ow and two that had this

810
00:38:55,640 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 2: positive EPA per play Cleveland Chicago's obviously, I thought usin

811
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 2: fields would helped him. He didn't. They are just as

812
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 2: bad with justin field, so I'm not putting much stock

813
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 2: into that. And Cleveland also play Houston. Now. They played

814
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,399
Speaker 2: a great game against Kansas City, but Kansas City might

815
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,520
Speaker 2: not be as dominant as we thought they were. Like, oh,

816
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 2: you lost to them by four points. What that's like

817
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 2: a win? You know, I don't know if that's you

818
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 2: can kind of look at it anymore. So Cleveland's another team.

819
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 2: They haven't really played anyone the Minnesota lost to Cincinnati

820
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 2: looks a little better now that Cincinnati is you know,

821
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 2: they've kind of come together as a defense and they're playmakers.

822
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 2: Burrow Chase, those guys are looking good. Their old line

823
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 2: is holding up for the most part. So if that

824
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 2: lost to Cincinnati isn't looking as bad. And then Arizona,

825
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:43,359
Speaker 2: you know they should have won that game. So I

826
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 2: just think this is more of a coin flip game.

827
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 2: You're still getting a point and a half. I would

828
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 2: take this one down or pick them. You have a

829
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:52,359
Speaker 2: home dog in a spot earlier in the season where

830
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 2: we just don't know enough about these two teams to

831
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,720
Speaker 2: give Cleveland a you know, to give what's a general

832
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 2: corn foot matchup Cleveland and edge on the row. So

833
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 2: Minnesota plus one and a half against Cleveland as a

834
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 2: home dog, take it down to a pick.

835
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind this as I make this a

836
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 3: true coin flip as well. But you know that plus

837
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 3: one and f which we'll get to in a second teaser.

838
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 3: I t's the Vikings up over seven. But Cousins is

839
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 3: playing at a ridiculously high level right now. I mean

840
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 3: you have to give him credit. And we'll see how

841
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 3: Minnesota can hold up against Miles Garrett, that's going to

842
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 3: be something to watch. But yeah, Cousins is just he's

843
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 3: firing on all cylinders right now. And that defense, I

844
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 3: mentioned this earlier in the season. It's a brand new defense,

845
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 3: nine new starters, and it's Mike Zimmer. He always gets

846
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 3: his defense corrected. So it's a defense that I think

847
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 3: it's going to improve with each passing week. And we

848
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,320
Speaker 3: saw a little bit of that in the second half

849
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 3: last week when they shut out the Seahawks for the

850
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 3: entire second half. So I don't mind that play at all.

851
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,439
Speaker 3: But I look the Minnesota You said it, they could

852
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 3: be three enough, and I think that they would be

853
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 3: probably favored. You know, you could have a field goal

854
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 3: swing if they were three, and oh you will probably

855
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 3: see them minus one minus one and a half here,

856
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 3: just because of the perception and obviously it's kind of

857
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 3: a dead range. But they lost to the Arizona on

858
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 3: a chip shot field goal, and they lost to Cincinnati

859
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:20,360
Speaker 3: because of a bogus fumble call upon review, so they

860
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 3: easily could be three. You know, I don't hate to

861
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 3: play at all for my third pick and the sixth

862
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 3: overall pick of the Sunday six pack. You have gone

863
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Lamar Jackson. I have gone

864
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 3: not Russell Wilson. I've gone Zach Wilson, not Ben Roethlisberger

865
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 3: of twenty ten, Ben Roethlisberger of twenty twenty one. And

866
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 3: we're gonna close it out with Danny Dimes. Baby, let's

867
00:41:53,080 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 3: hear it for Danny Dimes.

868
00:41:59,360 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 2: The.

869
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 3: Road Warrior and the New York Football Giants. Man, I

870
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:07,840
Speaker 3: have I have the two New York teams in my

871
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 3: six back and the Steelers. We're going with the Giants

872
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 3: plus seven and a half at the Saints. Look, I

873
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 3: know the offensive line has injuries. I know Martinez, their

874
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 3: middle linebacker is out for the year. Not the best

875
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 3: part of the world, make a lot of tackles, but

876
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 3: he's like their quarterback of their defense. They're gonna need

877
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 3: some young guys to step up. But this is just

878
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 3: an overreaction to what has happened. I mean, New Orleans

879
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 3: went into New England last week and won again. They

880
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 3: shouldn't have won. They were out gained, they got to

881
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 3: pick six on a tipped ball drop, they got another

882
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 3: pick inside the New England red zone and then they

883
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 3: got a touchdown on a ball. Jamis said, I'm just

884
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 3: gonna throw it up into the end zone and it

885
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 3: somehow got caught. But you know, it's if you look

886
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,840
Speaker 3: at and Sean Payton is not good. I'd be shocked

887
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 3: if you see that ever happen again. James Winston now

888
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,839
Speaker 3: is still make some mistake throws. I could see him

889
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 3: making some mistake throws here. But this offense is so

890
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,760
Speaker 3: conservative and they don't really have great receivers right now.

891
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 3: And that's why this total is like forty one and

892
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 3: a half and catching seven and a half in a

893
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 3: total in the NFL. With a total of forty one

894
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 3: and a half against Jameis Winston, one of the worst

895
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 3: quarterbacks you could ever back, is a favorite, yet alone

896
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 3: a favorite of over seven points. I mean, I'm taking

897
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 3: this all day. I understand that you know the Slayton

898
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 3: is probably not gonna play, Shepherd's probably not gonna play.

899
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 2: I don't care.

900
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,840
Speaker 3: You're probably gonna see more design runs for Daniel Jones.

901
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 3: You're gonna see lots of punts in this game. It's

902
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 3: such a low number. I can't play the under, but

903
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 3: I would lean on it. I think it's gonna be

904
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 3: an ugly game. And this is where these are the

905
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 3: games the Giants cover. We talk about this week in

906
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 3: and week out. The Giants are at home, people are like, oh,

907
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 3: they're pretty good, and then they lose out right. Then

908
00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 3: they go on the road and they upset Seattle. They

909
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 3: should have upset Washington. They look really good. It's what

910
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 3: they do. Dimes daty dimes now four and eleven against

911
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:10,800
Speaker 3: the spread at home, ten and four against the spread

912
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:13,800
Speaker 3: at home. And by the way, Winston seven fourteen and

913
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:17,800
Speaker 3: one against the spread as a favorite thirty three percent.

914
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 3: He's eighteen ten to one against the spread as a

915
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 3: dog more than a field goal sixty five percent. Look,

916
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 3: the Saints also have offensive line injuries, so their offensive line,

917
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:29,399
Speaker 3: which is like the strength of that team, potentially might

918
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 3: not be fully healthy. Armstead could be out, you know,

919
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:37,360
Speaker 3: center is still banged up. So look, this is a

920
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 3: lot of points for the Saints and their conservative offense

921
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 3: with a guy who trying to run it, who could

922
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 3: go rogue at any moment and throw a pick six,

923
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 3: throw a bad pick. They were very fortunate last week.

924
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,799
Speaker 3: They also caught the Packers just when everything went wrong. Well, look,

925
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 3: we've seen the Packers are since we saw the Saints

926
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,840
Speaker 3: have a disastrous game of Carolina. There also could be

927
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 3: some fatigue here, right, three straight road games, you haven't

928
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 3: been really at home the hurricane. Now you're coming home.

929
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 3: Not just like physical fatigue, but mental fatigue. You're playing

930
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 3: the Giants like I could see them being flat here.

931
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:17,120
Speaker 3: They'll probably approach a conservative let's just get this win,

932
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 3: and the Giants are essentially playing for their season. You

933
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 3: can't go all in four. You can go one in

934
00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 3: three and have a shot in the NFC East. You

935
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 3: can't go all in four, and then this is just

936
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 3: games that the Giants cover. I think their defense can

937
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 3: keep them in it against a very conservative offense. It

938
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 3: doesn't have great weapons, that has a banged up offensive line,

939
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 3: a quarterback that's been being treated with kids gloves who

940
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 3: sometimes will rip them off and throw a rogue pass

941
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,239
Speaker 3: or two that I think the Giants can capitalize on.

942
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 3: I know the Giants have offensive line issues. I know

943
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 3: they have receiver issues, but I think you'll see a

944
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 3: lot more designed Jones runs, which they didn't do for

945
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 3: some reason last week. They did against Washington very successfully.

946
00:45:57,640 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 3: I trust the Giants on the road in the spot.

947
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 3: I think that they'll keep this within a touchdo in

948
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 3: a very low scoring game. Seven and a half is

949
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 3: a ton of points in this game, So give me

950
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:07,719
Speaker 3: the g man.

951
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:10,680
Speaker 2: Obviously, I want to beat you in there in our contest,

952
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,840
Speaker 2: but I gotta give some some numbers to back you up.

953
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 2: Here's a crazy one Sean Payton when the Saints are

954
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 2: on a one game win streak, so that means like

955
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 2: like they're coming off a win, but they didn't win

956
00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:23,359
Speaker 2: the game before that, so it's not like a two

957
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 2: game win streak. And when he's a favorite by six

958
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 2: or more, he's two and thirteen against the spread, failing

959
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:31,400
Speaker 2: to cover by an average of eleven point four points.

960
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 2: That's a lot of games, like fifteen games to fail

961
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:37,800
Speaker 2: to cover by that's two hundred. That's only two hundred

962
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:40,799
Speaker 2: points that he's given up, like against the spread. Like

963
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 2: that's absurd. So the Giants of the play Danny Dimes.

964
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:47,320
Speaker 2: You mentioned ten and four on the road, nine and

965
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 2: two as a road dog, so they I don't know

966
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 2: how the Giants have been favored a couple of times

967
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:54,640
Speaker 2: at home. I don't know, but that's yeah, that's not

968
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:57,799
Speaker 2: even the situation here. And then Jamis when he's a

969
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 2: home favorite, just five and thirteen against the spread. As

970
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 2: a home favorite, he's failing to cover by three point

971
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 2: nine points, so almost a field goal. So yeah, this

972
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: all points to like a like a Saints like seventeen

973
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:13,720
Speaker 2: thirteen win or something like that. You know, like nothing,

974
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 2: nothing too crazy, same, pretty much the same game as

975
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:18,920
Speaker 2: last week. Giants look like they might do it, but

976
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 2: they do something stupid weight in the game, or they

977
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 2: just kind of you know, fold and the Saints win

978
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:24,919
Speaker 2: the game.

979
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 1: Yeah.

980
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be shocked to the Giants win this game,

981
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 4: Like I wouldn't you. I wouldn't be when they went

982
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 4: to Seattle last year. Like that's ugly enough. Jamis makes

983
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 4: a few mistakes, Jones makes a couple of big runs.

984
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 4: Giants with twenty to seventeen wouldn't shock me at all.

985
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, uh geeesh. That now I'm like torn because I

986
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 2: also like the Giants for my money line dog, but

987
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,720
Speaker 2: we're not at that segment yet. This is a Sunday

988
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 2: six pack for Week four on the Action Network podcast

989
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 2: presented by bet MGM. To recap Stucky is going with

990
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 2: the New York Jets plus seven the Pittsburgh Steelers plus

991
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 2: six and a half, the New York Giants plus seven

992
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 2: and a half. I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens plus one,

993
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 2: the Seattle Seahawks plus three, and the Minnesota Vikings plus

994
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 2: one and a half.

995
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by betmgm, and

996
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:19,000
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1013
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:14,480
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1014
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:19,200
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1015
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:21,600
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1016
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1017
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:27,440
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1018
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:30,200
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1019
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:32,680
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1020
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:35,120
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1021
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:37,640
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1022
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:39,839
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1023
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 1: hundred in Virginia. That's sink, not available in Nevada. Thanks

1024
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 1: so much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

1025
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,439
Speaker 2: Now it's time for our favorite total of the week.

1026
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 2: All right, stuck, not my favorite totals week, and I

1027
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 2: also started the six facts, so uh, go ahead and

1028
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 2: give us your total to start us off.

1029
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, have a.

1030
00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 2: Couple I mentioned the Ravens under which I'd like, but

1031
00:49:59,600 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 2: I'm going.

1032
00:49:59,920 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 3: To with the the Green Bay Pittsburgh first half under

1033
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 3: twenty three. I also like the game under which I'll

1034
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:10,239
Speaker 3: be playing under forty six, but I prefer the first

1035
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:13,880
Speaker 3: half under a little more because Number One, if you

1036
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 3: look at it, these two teams are the slowest in

1037
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 3: the NFL and seconds per play in the first half,

1038
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:21,320
Speaker 3: which is worth noting. Neither team are fast, and I expect,

1039
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 3: like I said, the Steelers defense to come out with

1040
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 3: their hair on fire. I could see the Packers coming

1041
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 3: out a little flat. I expect the Steelers to play

1042
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 3: this very conservatively in the beginning. Let their you know,

1043
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:35,080
Speaker 3: and their offense is kind of broken. They can't do

1044
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 3: anything downfield. There's no explosiveness. It's just then getting rid

1045
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:39,799
Speaker 3: of the ball quickly. But I think they're gonna run

1046
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 3: it a lot in the first half, and their defense

1047
00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 3: is gonna play really well, and I think this is

1048
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 3: just a rock fight. In the first half, Steelers keep

1049
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 3: it close to as ugly this game up. Why I

1050
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 3: prefer the first half a little more than the second

1051
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,800
Speaker 3: half is just I don't want if the Steelers defense

1052
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,240
Speaker 3: makes a couple of plays and their offense is moving

1053
00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:00,479
Speaker 3: the ball and Rogers is playing from behind. Like, that's

1054
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,840
Speaker 3: not the script that I want. And then if the

1055
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 3: Steelers get too far behind the second half, I don't

1056
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 3: want Ben trying to throw them back because that's just

1057
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 3: a recipe for disaster. They're gonna start playing faster number one,

1058
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 3: and then you're gonna have, you know, potential turnovers. And

1059
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 3: so I think the game script in the first half

1060
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 3: is gonna be very conducive to an under. So we'll

1061
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 3: go with the first half under twenty three or better

1062
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 3: in Pittsburgh Green Bay. And by the way, like we

1063
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 3: said before, these Tomlin spots in the road, his unders

1064
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:35,640
Speaker 3: have been very successful.

1065
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 2: Wow, I love the fase enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if

1066
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:41,040
Speaker 2: we can make what do you guys quit today?

1067
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:44,400
Speaker 3: So that speaks to that defense coming out. I think

1068
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 3: that Unders is a road dog. He's like sixty eight

1069
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:47,960
Speaker 3: percent or something.

1070
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:50,359
Speaker 2: I feel like I've had better trends for your picks

1071
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 2: than my picks, but I got you at this point.

1072
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,720
Speaker 2: Tomlin rode unders when it's between when it's over forty

1073
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:58,800
Speaker 2: three up to fifty one, So forty three and a

1074
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 2: half to fifty one, So you take out those like

1075
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 2: Super Bowl total games where it's probably going. You know,

1076
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:06,359
Speaker 2: it's just hard to go under road under for Tom

1077
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,880
Speaker 2: win forty three and a half to fifty one, forty

1078
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 2: three and fifteen, seventy four percent, And that's not even

1079
00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:20,000
Speaker 2: off a loss. That's just road unders that in this range, it's.

1080
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 3: Absurd, it's insane.

1081
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 2: Like you, you might as well just go with the

1082
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 2: full game, like you should be fine, Like you know

1083
00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 2: what I mean, Yeah, I know, I mean, I mean,

1084
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:29,640
Speaker 2: I don't even think you I know, you feel like

1085
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:31,520
Speaker 2: the first half is safer for the show. I'm saying,

1086
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 2: like I almost feel like you're fine on the full game.

1087
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 2: Forty three and fifteen.

1088
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:40,920
Speaker 3: That's absurd, crazy, Where are you going?

1089
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:45,840
Speaker 2: So this is not my favorite totals week. I'll be honest.

1090
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 2: Usually I'm on a bunch of unders. I think the

1091
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:50,400
Speaker 2: market has started to adjust. You know, there's gonna be

1092
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:52,400
Speaker 2: some weather. It's some cause I've seen a bunch of

1093
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:54,759
Speaker 2: totals that I thought about kind of come down. But

1094
00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna actually switch. I was gonna go Detroit Chicago

1095
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 2: under you all, you know, full disclosure, forty two, I

1096
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 2: like that down to forty one. I think but I'm

1097
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:07,680
Speaker 2: actually gonna go with the Jets Titans under forty four,

1098
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 2: you know, kind of talking to you about it and

1099
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,320
Speaker 2: kind of fleshing out some things. I really like this because,

1100
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,960
Speaker 2: number one, you look at the pace, and that's always

1101
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:17,440
Speaker 2: a great starting point for betting unders. You want to

1102
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 2: look at the pace. So situation neutral pace Tennessee twenty first,

1103
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 2: the Jets twentieth. First half pace Tennessee twenty third the

1104
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 2: Jets twenty seven. So okay, we're gonna get an ugly

1105
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 2: first half game. Tennessee's I remember I mentioned they've given

1106
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:38,359
Speaker 2: up a lot of plays on third down, but there's

1107
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 2: number two in the league in early down success rate

1108
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,920
Speaker 2: against the pass. On defense, I still think Zach Wilson

1109
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:46,399
Speaker 2: struggles in this one. And then on the other side,

1110
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 2: it's Tennessee's offense that we're really worried about, Like if

1111
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:52,760
Speaker 2: this game is gonna go over, but as you mentioned,

1112
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:57,319
Speaker 2: they are without aj Brown, it may very well be

1113
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:00,400
Speaker 2: without Julio Jones as well, or if if they're not,

1114
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:02,759
Speaker 2: they're going to manage his revs. Either way, it's an

1115
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 2: opponent that they're favored by a touchdown against. Their plan

1116
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 2: is going to be to run the football. And I

1117
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:09,360
Speaker 2: look at the Jets. They have offense has been so

1118
00:54:09,400 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 2: bad that no one's noticed. They've been decent on defense,

1119
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:15,799
Speaker 2: especially compared to their talent level. There are seventeenth in

1120
00:54:16,120 --> 00:54:18,720
Speaker 2: success rate against the run on early downs and against

1121
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:21,359
Speaker 2: the pass, so very league average, middle of the pack

1122
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 2: defense for a talent level that's probably bottom five Autumn three. Yeah,

1123
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 2: you know Tennessee is gonna kind of we know what

1124
00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 2: they're gonna do. You know, they're gonna come out and

1125
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 2: hand the ball to Derek Henry twenty five thirty times.

1126
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:33,200
Speaker 2: And there might be some weather. You know, there's like

1127
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 2: seven to ten minin now wins, some lowisability, maybe some overcast.

1128
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 2: We could get rain in this game. I had to

1129
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 2: take this down to forty three. I think this is

1130
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:43,840
Speaker 2: one of those games where I wouldn't be surprised if

1131
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:46,680
Speaker 2: the total close at forty three. So like Jets Titans

1132
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:47,359
Speaker 2: under forty four.

1133
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they scored twenty five against the Colts, who

1134
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 3: lost three defensive backsturing the game, and they were plus

1135
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 3: three in turnovers, like in a game that they led

1136
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 3: fourteen to thirteen in the fourth quarter. And by the way,

1137
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:59,640
Speaker 3: you convinced me forty three and fifteen. I'll go under

1138
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 3: forty si full game or forty five and a half.

1139
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter for this Bears lines. I don't hate

1140
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 3: that under now. I also do want to say that

1141
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 3: I think the Bears a value. Now this line has

1142
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 3: gone way the other way. It's under a field goal

1143
00:55:11,600 --> 00:55:15,040
Speaker 3: now at home. That's crazy after what we saw last week.

1144
00:55:15,280 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 3: Look the lines people are like, they fight like wooh,

1145
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:26,160
Speaker 3: they fight like, all right, keep trys. That's good if

1146
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 3: you can try to cover ten. But plus two and

1147
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 3: a half now in Chicago. This reminds me of Week

1148
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:35,359
Speaker 3: two when the Bears played the Bengals after Week one

1149
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:38,000
Speaker 3: and a lot of money came in on the Bengals

1150
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:40,280
Speaker 3: and the Bears won that game. They got a bit fortunate.

1151
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:41,320
Speaker 3: I you look at the box score, but this is

1152
00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 3: a Lions team that was getting blasted by sant fran

1153
00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:46,759
Speaker 3: as someone who had plus ten at the close and

1154
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 3: got a back door on two touchdowns, two two book

1155
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:50,879
Speaker 3: versions of an on side kick, like they were down twenty.

1156
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 3: They should have lost that game by twenty four. And

1157
00:55:52,719 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 3: then you know, you look at the Packers game. They

1158
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 3: played a good first half and then they got blown

1159
00:55:56,640 --> 00:55:59,480
Speaker 3: out the Ravens should have been up by twenty four

1160
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:02,080
Speaker 3: the first half. If Mark they don't have all those drops.

1161
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:04,160
Speaker 3: This is a team without a secondary at all.

1162
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 2: Matt Maggie's coaching for his job. Fields I might might start,

1163
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 2: might not.

1164
00:56:08,880 --> 00:56:11,760
Speaker 3: You might see Foles field anyway, It'll be an upgrade

1165
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:13,480
Speaker 3: if it's not Fields right now from what we've seen

1166
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:15,399
Speaker 3: last week. If you see Fields will be a short

1167
00:56:15,440 --> 00:56:17,439
Speaker 3: hawk like. It won't be a disaster like last week.

1168
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:19,840
Speaker 3: Maggie has to win now. He's gonna get fired. He

1169
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:22,479
Speaker 3: can't lose this game. You could see you know, big

1170
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:24,319
Speaker 3: Dick Nick Foles in there, or you could see any

1171
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:27,040
Speaker 3: Dalton if he's healthy, who at least you know aren't

1172
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:29,319
Speaker 3: or are just not going to be like it looks

1173
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,200
Speaker 3: like a dark room out there, like Justin Field said

1174
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:33,920
Speaker 3: last week. And obviously this is a much easier defense

1175
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 3: to go against Jared Goff outdoors. So I like the

1176
00:56:37,160 --> 00:56:39,240
Speaker 3: Bears now that it's I threw in a moneyline parlay

1177
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 3: with the Bills that it got under three. If you

1178
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:45,160
Speaker 3: grab the lines at like five and a half six,

1179
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 3: that's a great grab. But this crossing the three now

1180
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 3: is I think the Bears a value so.

1181
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 2: Let me ask you a question, and because I kind

1182
00:56:53,080 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 2: of agree with you, so I've been meaning to ask

1183
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 2: you this because this is one thing I've never I

1184
00:56:57,840 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 2: just haven't done it a lot, so like I when

1185
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:01,800
Speaker 2: I do it, it's just kind of off, like live betting.

1186
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:05,840
Speaker 2: But like, at what point does it become profitable to

1187
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:08,280
Speaker 2: start looking for a middle Because I got the lines

1188
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:10,959
Speaker 2: at plus six it must have lasted like an hour.

1189
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:14,880
Speaker 2: It was like Sunday afternoon, but yeah, two and a half. Like, like,

1190
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 2: what point, at what point should I be looking to

1191
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:18,880
Speaker 2: just straight up middle this? Like one hundred percent?

1192
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:22,320
Speaker 3: In general, if you have a position and then the

1193
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:25,240
Speaker 3: line moves, you're gonna make out. I think over the

1194
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:27,960
Speaker 3: long run, you're gonna make more profit by just holding

1195
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 3: your plus ev position now instead of trying to middle

1196
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 3: it now. If you where it does make sense is

1197
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 3: if you don't really love the position and you're like,

1198
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:38,960
Speaker 3: I know this is gonna move, let me go in

1199
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 3: and bet it, and I know it's gonna move here

1200
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 3: for an injury, and all I'm trying to do is

1201
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 3: middle it. But you like the lines at six, you

1202
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:47,919
Speaker 3: might as well keep it butt In this particular circumstance.

1203
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:48,360
Speaker 2: Like I don't like them that much.

1204
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 3: Under three with a total of forty two, the chances

1205
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 3: of this game landing between two and six are not

1206
00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 3: in sign So in this case, if you don't love

1207
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 3: the lines, you know I approached these things subjectively as

1208
00:58:06,480 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 3: well as some more art and science. If you don't

1209
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 3: love the lines, that would be a great you know,

1210
00:58:11,640 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 3: it's more than three and a half points crossing multiple

1211
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:17,440
Speaker 3: key numbers in the NFL with a low total, So

1212
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:19,959
Speaker 3: these numbers become even more important. So if you don't

1213
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:22,480
Speaker 3: love the lines, you don't have to put your full

1214
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:25,800
Speaker 3: bet on what you put on the lines. But if

1215
00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:27,360
Speaker 3: you want to just throw a little bit on the bears,

1216
00:58:27,360 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 3: I think that's a plus EV play both of them.

1217
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:32,040
Speaker 3: But if you made the line like four, taking six

1218
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 3: in a low scoring game plus ev bet and then

1219
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:38,400
Speaker 3: laying two and a half when you met plus ev

1220
00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:41,720
Speaker 3: beat with a higher chance of a middle than most

1221
00:58:41,760 --> 00:58:44,240
Speaker 3: games between two half six, all the key numbers. So

1222
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 3: that's the evaluation tool that I would use.

1223
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:51,160
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, So to recap one more time, stuck going

1224
00:58:51,520 --> 00:58:55,560
Speaker 2: Packers Steelers under forty six, I'm going get Titans under

1225
00:58:55,720 --> 00:59:00,600
Speaker 2: forty four. Let's get into our favorite teaser in a week. Yeah,

1226
00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:10,120
Speaker 2: six point teasers don't don't change, don't tease me, try

1227
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:19,160
Speaker 2: to please all right. For those unfamiliar with teasers, it's

1228
00:59:19,200 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 2: when you get an extra amount of points for each

1229
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 2: bet that you're making. Usually the standard is a six

1230
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:29,440
Speaker 2: point teaser, which means an eight point favorite becomes a

1231
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:32,880
Speaker 2: two point favorite, an eight point underdog becomes a fourteen

1232
00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 2: point underdog. So you can usually add as many teasers

1233
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:39,440
Speaker 2: as you want, but it's usually two teams six points.

1234
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 2: Books usually charge minus one twenty four, but you can

1235
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:45,560
Speaker 2: be profitable. Stucky has a lot of good content out

1236
00:59:45,600 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 2: on it. Just google Stucky and Teasers, or search Stucky

1237
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:52,240
Speaker 2: and Teasers on the Action Network on Action network dot com.

1238
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 2: Stuck where you're going for week four?

1239
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:56,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of questions about teachers. Last week the

1240
00:59:57,080 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 3: teasers teasing across three and seven, one, six and now

1241
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:01,080
Speaker 3: I got a lot of questions about it. So I

1242
01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 3: actually did an updated teaser guide this week. It'll be

1243
01:00:03,280 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 3: out on the app by the time you're listening to this,

1244
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:08,000
Speaker 3: and on Action Network dot Com it'll ranked. I think

1245
01:00:08,040 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 3: there's eight or nine viable teaser options this week, so

1246
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 3: make sure you check that out. It'll be all the

1247
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 3: different rules and then some other things to consider. Some

1248
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:16,760
Speaker 3: things we talk about on here that you know, the

1249
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:20,840
Speaker 3: total and various other factors. But I like to see Awks,

1250
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:23,400
Speaker 3: like I mentioned the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. But

1251
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:27,120
Speaker 3: for this I'll go with the Vikings. Already talked about

1252
01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:30,000
Speaker 3: this earlier game. I'll make a toss up. Cousin's playing

1253
01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:31,640
Speaker 3: at a high level. If I need a backdoor too,

1254
01:00:31,760 --> 01:00:33,600
Speaker 3: I can get it. But I think this is a

1255
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:36,280
Speaker 3: close game. I'll take the home team that should be

1256
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 3: three to zero in the season catching over a touchdown.

1257
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:42,920
Speaker 3: I'll pair them with the Colts. This is just a

1258
01:00:42,960 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 3: no brainer for me. It's an ugly game. I mean,

1259
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 3: Miami was awful as you're gonna have set again. Total

1260
01:00:49,480 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 3: is forty three, and I can get the Colts at

1261
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 3: over a touchdown. It's gonna be hard for either one

1262
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:56,560
Speaker 3: of these teams to pull away from the other. So

1263
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 3: I'll take the Colts and the Vikings over a touchdown.

1264
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:04,000
Speaker 2: You know what's funny, Miami's favored by two points. You

1265
01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 2: know it's also worth two points when you throw the

1266
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:09,720
Speaker 2: ball to Jaywn Wado five yards behind the goal line,

1267
01:01:09,840 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 2: behind your own goal line and get tackled for a safety. Yo,

1268
01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:19,320
Speaker 2: I don't know I've ever seen something quite like I was.

1269
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:21,680
Speaker 2: I like rub my eyes like Urban Meyer is that

1270
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 2: you like? It's like, how like why Brian Forrez? You

1271
01:01:26,040 --> 01:01:28,000
Speaker 2: know you tend to think that Dolphin staff is going

1272
01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:30,240
Speaker 2: to be sharp. Everyone was mad at everyone after that play,

1273
01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 2: So I don't know, have you seen anything about that?

1274
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 2: Like do we know whose fault? That was?

1275
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:34,800
Speaker 3: So bizarre?

1276
01:01:35,080 --> 01:01:37,800
Speaker 2: No, Like Jaywon Wattle mad that he got thrown the ball,

1277
01:01:38,040 --> 01:01:40,960
Speaker 2: Briset look mad that the play was called, The coaches

1278
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 2: look mad that it was a safety. So I'm like

1279
01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:44,720
Speaker 2: wondering who was actually at fault for that? But man,

1280
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 2: you have Yeah, if you haven't got a chance to

1281
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 2: see this, just google Jaymon Wattle safety and you'll just

1282
01:01:49,800 --> 01:01:52,520
Speaker 2: see one of the dumbest football plays of all time.

1283
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:56,960
Speaker 2: For my teaser, I'm going with I'm going with Cincinnati

1284
01:01:57,120 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 2: on Thursday, seven and a halfter, one and a half.

1285
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 2: I think that's a no brain And I like, there's

1286
01:02:01,840 --> 01:02:04,040
Speaker 2: a bunch of other favorites bobab like seven, seven and

1287
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 2: a half, six and a half that I really do

1288
01:02:06,320 --> 01:02:09,280
Speaker 2: not trust me. I don't trust the Packers, don't trust

1289
01:02:09,280 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 2: the Saints. I don't really trust the Titans, but I

1290
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 2: trust them more than these other teams because Zach Wilson

1291
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:19,080
Speaker 2: has shown us nothing, you know, so far. He's facing

1292
01:02:19,080 --> 01:02:21,360
Speaker 2: some tough defenses. But again, Tennessee has been good on

1293
01:02:21,400 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 2: early downs against the past. This is the safest one

1294
01:02:24,400 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 2: I think to kind of go down. I always like

1295
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:29,640
Speaker 2: going with the favorites down more than the underdog's up.

1296
01:02:30,360 --> 01:02:32,560
Speaker 2: I don't know why. It's just kind of a personal style.

1297
01:02:33,040 --> 01:02:35,360
Speaker 2: There's still not many worlds where I see the Jets

1298
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:39,640
Speaker 2: actually winning this game. So Tennessee Cincinnati teasing him down.

1299
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:41,680
Speaker 2: You know, hold your nose when it comes to Tennessee

1300
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:44,400
Speaker 2: because it might be uglier than we think. But yeah,

1301
01:02:44,440 --> 01:02:46,760
Speaker 2: that's gonna do it. For the teaser segment, Stuck has

1302
01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 2: Indianapolis teasing them from two to eight, Minnesota teasing them

1303
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:51,000
Speaker 2: from one and a half to seven and a half.

1304
01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:55,320
Speaker 2: I'm going Tennessee seven to one, Cincinnati seven and a half, two,

1305
01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:57,880
Speaker 2: one and a half. And now it is time for

1306
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:02,440
Speaker 2: our money line underdog parlay.

1307
01:03:04,760 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1308
01:03:08,600 --> 01:03:12,720
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. And when I

1309
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:15,600
Speaker 2: say our money line underdog parlay, I should say, are

1310
01:03:15,640 --> 01:03:18,520
Speaker 2: two and one money line underdog parlay? Last week you

1311
01:03:18,600 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 2: had the Saints, I had the Packers, And somehow we've

1312
01:03:21,760 --> 01:03:24,120
Speaker 2: hit on what like four out of six money line

1313
01:03:24,400 --> 01:03:27,480
Speaker 2: underdogs combined this year. So it's been a pretty good

1314
01:03:27,560 --> 01:03:30,120
Speaker 2: year for us on these money line dog parlays. And

1315
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 2: I'm gonna let you go first because now I feel

1316
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 2: like I have so many options, I might have to

1317
01:03:33,640 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 2: change my pick while you're talking. So start us off

1318
01:03:36,520 --> 01:03:38,040
Speaker 2: and tell us where you're going this week as we

1319
01:03:38,040 --> 01:03:38,960
Speaker 2: try to go to three and one.

1320
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:41,560
Speaker 3: Well, last week it faded the Patriots, but this week

1321
01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 3: we're going to the Patriots in a fascinating game money

1322
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:49,280
Speaker 3: line against the Tampa Bay Box. Tom Brady's returned to Foxborough.

1323
01:03:49,320 --> 01:03:53,080
Speaker 3: I'm sure you've heard about it. Look, the Patriots haven't

1324
01:03:53,120 --> 01:03:54,760
Speaker 3: been great this year, but they should be three. And

1325
01:03:54,840 --> 01:03:58,480
Speaker 3: now they all played Miami. They obviously dominated the Jets,

1326
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:01,360
Speaker 3: and they played in New Orleans and just had a

1327
01:04:01,360 --> 01:04:04,680
Speaker 3: couple of bad bounces go against them. Not the most

1328
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:07,280
Speaker 3: potent offenses in the world. But here's what this comes

1329
01:04:07,320 --> 01:04:08,840
Speaker 3: down to. I mean, number one, there's this value the

1330
01:04:08,920 --> 01:04:11,240
Speaker 3: number to me, I can't get just seven or more.

1331
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 3: I don't know how I accounting for the home field

1332
01:04:15,200 --> 01:04:17,920
Speaker 3: some of the Tampa Bay injuries. Dean might play. It's

1333
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:20,360
Speaker 3: worth keeping an eye out. But their secondary is a mess.

1334
01:04:21,040 --> 01:04:24,320
Speaker 3: It's their best, Yeah, Richard Sherman, I mean, I don't

1335
01:04:24,360 --> 01:04:25,920
Speaker 3: know what you can expect him to do in this

1336
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:29,760
Speaker 3: scheme at his age right now, but yeah, it's the

1337
01:04:29,800 --> 01:04:31,160
Speaker 3: defense hasn't been playing.

1338
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:31,320
Speaker 2: Well at all.

1339
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:33,920
Speaker 3: They haven't been getting to the quarterback. Their secondary has

1340
01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:37,000
Speaker 3: been getting abused. Teams are just coming out and passing

1341
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:39,000
Speaker 3: against them all day, which you should do. You shouldn't

1342
01:04:39,000 --> 01:04:41,439
Speaker 3: try to run at all. New England likes to run,

1343
01:04:41,560 --> 01:04:43,080
Speaker 3: so it's not the best matchup of them and James

1344
01:04:43,120 --> 01:04:45,320
Speaker 3: White is out now, it's kind of the security blanket

1345
01:04:45,320 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 3: for Mac Jones. Be curious to see how they approach this.

1346
01:04:48,600 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 3: What I think they're going to do now, this is

1347
01:04:50,800 --> 01:04:53,080
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have a write up for this game. I'm

1348
01:04:53,120 --> 01:04:57,000
Speaker 3: assuming that Bill Belichick has something drawn up for Brady

1349
01:04:57,240 --> 01:04:59,960
Speaker 3: that he was in the lab cooking up this summer.

1350
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:03,920
Speaker 3: Ex assistance Brady has some success against him. We saw

1351
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:05,640
Speaker 3: Vrabel do it in the playoffs. The last time he

1352
01:05:05,640 --> 01:05:07,280
Speaker 3: played in Fox for he threw that pick six at

1353
01:05:07,320 --> 01:05:10,800
Speaker 3: the end. You know, we saw Flores do it when

1354
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:14,640
Speaker 3: the Dolphins upset the Patriots somehow at the end of

1355
01:05:14,720 --> 01:05:18,080
Speaker 3: the season in twenty nineteen. We even saw Matt Patricia

1356
01:05:18,360 --> 01:05:22,000
Speaker 3: do it in the highlight of his career when they

1357
01:05:22,040 --> 01:05:25,400
Speaker 3: won his seven point underdogs at home in Week three

1358
01:05:25,600 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 3: against the Patriots. This kind of reminds me of the

1359
01:05:28,440 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 3: spot last year when the Patriots were seven point underdogs

1360
01:05:32,400 --> 01:05:35,440
Speaker 3: against the Ravens. They were two and six, the Ravens

1361
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:37,880
Speaker 3: were six and two. No one gave them a shot,

1362
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:39,960
Speaker 3: the Patriots one. They came up the good game plan.

1363
01:05:40,000 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 3: But when I assume the Patriot could do it, They're

1364
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:43,480
Speaker 3: gonna go really slow. They're gonna try to keep the

1365
01:05:43,480 --> 01:05:46,240
Speaker 3: ball to Brady's hands, and then they're gonna dare the

1366
01:05:46,280 --> 01:05:48,000
Speaker 3: Bucks to run it, and they're just gonna say guy

1367
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:49,560
Speaker 3: had to run it. And then they're gonna have some

1368
01:05:49,640 --> 01:05:53,360
Speaker 3: kind of exotic look. They're obviously gonna have some simulated pressure.

1369
01:05:53,600 --> 01:05:56,440
Speaker 3: Just something that Bill Belichick has schemed up here to

1370
01:05:56,520 --> 01:05:59,560
Speaker 3: try and confuse Brady. Should be a fascinating chess match.

1371
01:05:59,560 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 3: So I think there is high variance here in that

1372
01:06:01,840 --> 01:06:04,320
Speaker 3: Who knows what Belichick's gonna come up with I think

1373
01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:06,840
Speaker 3: the I think this game actually plays to an under.

1374
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:09,640
Speaker 3: It's crazy to say that the Bucks game that's forty nine,

1375
01:06:09,960 --> 01:06:11,480
Speaker 3: but I think that they're gonna sold up. They're gonna

1376
01:06:11,520 --> 01:06:15,280
Speaker 3: dare the Bucks to run shorten this game. So I

1377
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:18,320
Speaker 3: think there's value in this number. And it's a fascinating

1378
01:06:18,400 --> 01:06:21,919
Speaker 3: chess match in Bill we trust. I could go through

1379
01:06:21,920 --> 01:06:24,720
Speaker 3: stats for days here, you know, off of the loss,

1380
01:06:24,720 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 3: but they're all kind of correlated because they were together.

1381
01:06:27,120 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 3: Belichick off A lost forty five and twenty against the

1382
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:32,520
Speaker 3: spread sixty nine point two percent. But Brady off I

1383
01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:35,200
Speaker 3: lost forty one and fourteen against the spread seventy four

1384
01:06:35,200 --> 01:06:38,000
Speaker 3: and a half percent. But he's just ten and eleven

1385
01:06:38,280 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 3: against the spread. Win a favor by a touchdown or more. Yeah,

1386
01:06:41,400 --> 01:06:43,400
Speaker 3: give me the Pats this week. We went against last

1387
01:06:43,400 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 3: week one against them. This week, we'll go with them.

1388
01:06:45,240 --> 01:06:45,920
Speaker 3: Pull the stunner.

1389
01:06:46,440 --> 01:06:47,919
Speaker 2: I was pretty sure you're going to take the Jets

1390
01:06:47,960 --> 01:06:49,800
Speaker 2: and the Steers in the six pack. I did not

1391
01:06:49,920 --> 01:06:52,200
Speaker 2: think you were going to take the Pats. I'll be honest,

1392
01:06:52,240 --> 01:06:54,600
Speaker 2: that's one of the more surprising ones. I have no

1393
01:06:54,760 --> 01:06:56,800
Speaker 2: take on this game. I just it's very hard for

1394
01:06:56,840 --> 01:07:00,000
Speaker 2: me to handicap Belichick versus Brady, especially with like you say,

1395
01:07:00,160 --> 01:07:02,840
Speaker 2: all these competing trends and bellich Check and Foxburg and

1396
01:07:02,840 --> 01:07:05,080
Speaker 2: Brady coming off the loss and this and that. So

1397
01:07:05,160 --> 01:07:08,080
Speaker 2: I mean, it's interesting, it's spicy. Let's see, let's see

1398
01:07:08,120 --> 01:07:11,760
Speaker 2: how this goes. It's it's plus two twenty five, so

1399
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:15,240
Speaker 2: you know it's there, and I'm gonna I'm gonna kind

1400
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:18,560
Speaker 2: of go right in line with that and go with

1401
01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 2: another big underdog. I'm gonna take the Giants plus two eighty.

1402
01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:26,600
Speaker 2: I already mentioned Sean Payton in these spots failing to

1403
01:07:26,640 --> 01:07:29,520
Speaker 2: cover by eleven, you know, over eleven points a game. Well,

1404
01:07:29,560 --> 01:07:31,360
Speaker 2: the line is only seven and a half, so if

1405
01:07:31,360 --> 01:07:32,880
Speaker 2: they failed to cover by eleven a half plus, they're

1406
01:07:32,920 --> 01:07:37,120
Speaker 2: losing this game. Jamis Winston twelve and eleven on the

1407
01:07:37,120 --> 01:07:39,360
Speaker 2: money line is a favorite, So there's about a fifty

1408
01:07:39,720 --> 01:07:42,680
Speaker 2: right under a fifty percent chance, almost a coin flip,

1409
01:07:42,880 --> 01:07:46,840
Speaker 2: that Jamis loses outright as a favorite, and you're getting

1410
01:07:46,840 --> 01:07:48,960
Speaker 2: plus two eighty, you're getting implied like a thirty percent

1411
01:07:49,040 --> 01:07:52,440
Speaker 2: chance of winning. So give me the Giants. In this

1412
01:07:52,520 --> 01:07:54,680
Speaker 2: spot you mentioned it. This is the kind of game

1413
01:07:54,720 --> 01:07:57,280
Speaker 2: they kind of muck up they make it look nasty,

1414
01:07:57,560 --> 01:08:01,600
Speaker 2: you know. And you know, I wouldn't be surprised. Everyone thought

1415
01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:05,440
Speaker 2: they were gonna get that win against the Falcons. They didn't.

1416
01:08:05,520 --> 01:08:07,520
Speaker 2: You know, they probably should have got one against Washington

1417
01:08:07,640 --> 01:08:10,000
Speaker 2: they didn't. Who wouldn't be surprised if this is the

1418
01:08:10,080 --> 01:08:12,400
Speaker 2: spot they get, they get that one win and then

1419
01:08:12,520 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 2: and then this is the giant script. Yeah, this is it.

1420
01:08:15,480 --> 01:08:20,360
Speaker 2: So and this is a juicy parlay. So we are

1421
01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:22,680
Speaker 2: we are really kind of feeling ourselves after going two

1422
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:25,360
Speaker 2: and won. So far plus two twenty five and plus

1423
01:08:25,360 --> 01:08:29,120
Speaker 2: two eighty. That's a payout on one hundred dollars bet

1424
01:08:29,400 --> 01:08:32,080
Speaker 2: of one hundred and thirty five hours. So you put

1425
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:34,479
Speaker 2: in one hundred, your payout is twelve thirty five. So

1426
01:08:34,520 --> 01:08:37,120
Speaker 2: you're getting over ten to one odds here. If we

1427
01:08:37,160 --> 01:08:39,240
Speaker 2: go three and one, I mean, we might have to

1428
01:08:39,240 --> 01:08:40,519
Speaker 2: take the rest of the year off or they might

1429
01:08:40,560 --> 01:08:42,680
Speaker 2: just have to give us a raise or something like that,

1430
01:08:42,800 --> 01:08:45,840
Speaker 2: because uh, this would be ridiculous if we hit this one.

1431
01:08:45,840 --> 01:08:47,000
Speaker 2: But giant, we'll be back to it.

1432
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:48,880
Speaker 3: We'll be back to our short dogs next week now,

1433
01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:51,120
Speaker 3: Im kidding. Let's get it done. I can see both women.

1434
01:08:51,200 --> 01:08:53,519
Speaker 2: Let's go and the one time I picked the short dog.

1435
01:08:53,560 --> 01:08:55,160
Speaker 2: I lost. I picked it. Oh well, now I guess

1436
01:08:55,200 --> 01:08:57,000
Speaker 2: I picked the package, but I picked the Cincinnati BEng

1437
01:08:57,040 --> 01:08:59,240
Speaker 2: goes a short dog that didn't work out. So yeah,

1438
01:08:59,479 --> 01:09:03,439
Speaker 2: that's uh, Giants plus two eighty and the Patriots plus

1439
01:09:03,439 --> 01:09:07,400
Speaker 2: two twenty five. Again, it's over a ten to one payout. Hey,

1440
01:09:07,439 --> 01:09:10,479
Speaker 2: can't go back, can't go wrong with that. Let's get

1441
01:09:10,520 --> 01:09:12,880
Speaker 2: into the best of the rest, which are the games

1442
01:09:12,880 --> 01:09:15,960
Speaker 2: that we did not talk about in any other segment.

1443
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:17,840
Speaker 2: All right, Sote. First up, we got the Kansas City

1444
01:09:17,880 --> 01:09:21,679
Speaker 2: Chiefs at the Philadelphia Eagles. The Linus seven in favor

1445
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:24,799
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs. The total this fifty four and a half.

1446
01:09:25,320 --> 01:09:27,320
Speaker 2: I kind of want to take the Eagles. I mean,

1447
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:30,080
Speaker 2: the Chiefs just don't cover big numbers, if covering numbers

1448
01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:33,160
Speaker 2: at all. But I'm I'm also interested in the total

1449
01:09:33,200 --> 01:09:35,360
Speaker 2: on this game. I wanted to hear your opinion for

1450
01:09:35,400 --> 01:09:38,040
Speaker 2: some reason. When teams go to Wink and Financial and

1451
01:09:38,120 --> 01:09:40,120
Speaker 2: this is this spid is not just like Carson Wentz

1452
01:09:40,120 --> 01:09:42,720
Speaker 2: and Peterson. It's just like since twenty fifteen, which is

1453
01:09:42,760 --> 01:09:46,040
Speaker 2: pre Peterson and pre Wentz and post them obviously thirty

1454
01:09:46,080 --> 01:09:49,280
Speaker 2: and twelve when the total opens forty four higher at

1455
01:09:49,280 --> 01:09:52,439
Speaker 2: Lincoln Financial thirty four and twelve seventy one percent to

1456
01:09:52,479 --> 01:09:54,800
Speaker 2: the under. So this seems like it could be an

1457
01:09:54,840 --> 01:09:57,360
Speaker 2: ugly game. They gotta play that gannon defense. They're gonna

1458
01:09:57,400 --> 01:10:00,280
Speaker 2: leave two safeties back in two deeper quarters. And we

1459
01:10:00,320 --> 01:10:02,479
Speaker 2: know the Chiefs, even if they score, they're gonna take.

1460
01:10:02,479 --> 01:10:03,960
Speaker 2: They're gonna it's gonna be a tenth Way to oh

1461
01:10:04,040 --> 01:10:07,160
Speaker 2: Way drive. So, uh, what are your thoughts on this one?

1462
01:10:07,840 --> 01:10:11,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like I like the Eagles even after that

1463
01:10:11,360 --> 01:10:13,400
Speaker 3: disaster last week. I knew I would. The whole world

1464
01:10:13,400 --> 01:10:16,160
Speaker 3: will be on the Chiefs. You know, this line last

1465
01:10:16,160 --> 01:10:18,519
Speaker 3: week was five five and a half. Siriane was a

1466
01:10:18,560 --> 01:10:21,360
Speaker 3: mess last week. I mean wearing the beat Dallas shirt,

1467
01:10:21,560 --> 01:10:23,639
Speaker 3: you know, and then he's not running the ball at all.

1468
01:10:23,800 --> 01:10:27,200
Speaker 3: There's no adjustments, And uh what, I think it's a

1469
01:10:27,200 --> 01:10:29,639
Speaker 3: good thing for this week. I think that they're gonna

1470
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:31,880
Speaker 3: run it a lot and they're gonna use Miles Sanders,

1471
01:10:31,920 --> 01:10:34,479
Speaker 3: who should be fresh. If they're getting two carries U

1472
01:10:34,760 --> 01:10:37,040
Speaker 3: for twenty seven yards last week, that's all you gotta

1473
01:10:37,080 --> 01:10:38,400
Speaker 3: do against the Chiefs. This Chiefs.

1474
01:10:38,560 --> 01:10:39,719
Speaker 2: The reason the Chiefs can't.

1475
01:10:39,560 --> 01:10:42,479
Speaker 3: Cover, by the way, Mahomes went one of for one

1476
01:10:42,520 --> 01:10:45,080
Speaker 3: of fourteen for six yards or two picks under pressure

1477
01:10:45,120 --> 01:10:46,920
Speaker 3: last week. I think the Eagles can get some pressure

1478
01:10:47,240 --> 01:10:49,599
Speaker 3: with that defensive line. But the Chiefs are owing three

1479
01:10:49,600 --> 01:10:51,639
Speaker 3: against the spread. They're all in ten against the spread

1480
01:10:51,680 --> 01:10:53,760
Speaker 3: their last ten games when favored by more than a

1481
01:10:53,760 --> 01:10:56,400
Speaker 3: field goal, and they're one twelve and one against the

1482
01:10:56,439 --> 01:10:59,360
Speaker 3: spread the last fourteen. Why a couple of reasons. Their

1483
01:10:59,360 --> 01:11:03,240
Speaker 3: defense states they're thirty second DBA overall, thirty second against

1484
01:11:03,240 --> 01:11:05,920
Speaker 3: the run, thirty second against the past. They have no

1485
01:11:06,000 --> 01:11:08,519
Speaker 3: one in their front seven who can cover tight ends,

1486
01:11:08,520 --> 01:11:10,639
Speaker 3: who can cover backs. You can defend the run outside

1487
01:11:10,640 --> 01:11:14,160
Speaker 3: of Chris Jones. That's it. Frank Clark stinks, by the way,

1488
01:11:14,200 --> 01:11:16,280
Speaker 3: so please don't say his name. The Eagles should be

1489
01:11:16,280 --> 01:11:17,479
Speaker 3: able to run the ball, They should be able to

1490
01:11:17,560 --> 01:11:20,679
Speaker 3: use their tight ends. They should be able to run hurts.

1491
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:24,120
Speaker 3: Anyone could pretty much keep up with cheese. Go back

1492
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:26,960
Speaker 3: to last year. It's not it's hard for them to

1493
01:11:26,960 --> 01:11:28,920
Speaker 3: cover at number seven and a half. You can get

1494
01:11:28,960 --> 01:11:30,800
Speaker 3: seven and a half, which I got earlier this week.

1495
01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:33,479
Speaker 3: Seven's fine too, you know, I make this closer to

1496
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:36,240
Speaker 3: five and a half. Five. It's just the Chiefs defense

1497
01:11:36,320 --> 01:11:39,080
Speaker 3: is that bad, that's why they're not covering. And then

1498
01:11:39,080 --> 01:11:42,160
Speaker 3: there's also a premium on the Homes and read right,

1499
01:11:42,160 --> 01:11:45,200
Speaker 3: they were always so good against the spread and everyone

1500
01:11:45,240 --> 01:11:48,320
Speaker 3: always wanted to back them, and rightfully so. But then

1501
01:11:48,560 --> 01:11:51,439
Speaker 3: you know there's an extra point or two in the

1502
01:11:51,479 --> 01:11:53,360
Speaker 3: market and it just caught up to them and their

1503
01:11:53,400 --> 01:11:57,960
Speaker 3: defense is just so bad. So yeah, I think Gannon

1504
01:11:58,080 --> 01:11:59,639
Speaker 3: will come up with a good game pin here. Hopefully

1505
01:11:59,680 --> 01:12:03,040
Speaker 3: Seria cleans up the penalties. He's not been impressed in

1506
01:12:03,040 --> 01:12:06,320
Speaker 3: the past two weeks, but Ganna came up helped Iberfluts

1507
01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:08,759
Speaker 3: come up with a great game plan. In twenty nineteen

1508
01:12:08,800 --> 01:12:12,400
Speaker 3: against the Chiefs, they switched up their entire defense. They

1509
01:12:12,439 --> 01:12:16,040
Speaker 3: went more man the heart, pressed man on the outside,

1510
01:12:16,040 --> 01:12:18,360
Speaker 3: and the Colts never do that, and they held Mahomes,

1511
01:12:18,360 --> 01:12:20,360
Speaker 3: who'd scored at least twenty six points every game of

1512
01:12:20,400 --> 01:12:23,639
Speaker 3: his career, to thirteen points. They won nineteen to thirteen.

1513
01:12:23,640 --> 01:12:26,000
Speaker 3: I think that game was in ra shocker of an upset.

1514
01:12:26,479 --> 01:12:29,280
Speaker 3: So I think we'll see a good defensive game plan.

1515
01:12:29,320 --> 01:12:32,800
Speaker 3: They'll they'll take away the explosive plays, and I think

1516
01:12:32,800 --> 01:12:35,439
Speaker 3: they can get pressure on Mahomes. But most importantly, I

1517
01:12:35,439 --> 01:12:38,320
Speaker 3: think the Philadelphia offense can keep up now because I

1518
01:12:38,320 --> 01:12:40,960
Speaker 3: think the Philadelphia offense is any sort of juggernaut. It's

1519
01:12:41,200 --> 01:12:44,280
Speaker 3: they're an NFL team playing the Chiefs and they're catching

1520
01:12:44,320 --> 01:12:46,040
Speaker 3: seven and a half at home. I know it's a

1521
01:12:46,040 --> 01:12:48,679
Speaker 3: bad spot off Monday night football on the road. Teams

1522
01:12:48,680 --> 01:12:51,679
Speaker 3: coming off Monday Night football on the road, then coming

1523
01:12:51,720 --> 01:12:55,200
Speaker 3: home on a short week one twenty four one sixty

1524
01:12:55,280 --> 01:12:57,200
Speaker 3: one and eleven against the Spreadits forty three and a

1525
01:12:57,240 --> 01:13:00,559
Speaker 3: half percent different story than you're catching a touchdown or

1526
01:13:00,560 --> 01:13:03,439
Speaker 3: more at home to count of that team's coming Why

1527
01:13:03,479 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 3: this is a Bilow spot Everyone wants to sell the

1528
01:13:05,080 --> 01:13:08,040
Speaker 3: Eagles after what they saw on National TV. Team's coming

1529
01:13:08,040 --> 01:13:11,639
Speaker 3: off a twenty plus point loss and now they're home

1530
01:13:11,720 --> 01:13:15,519
Speaker 3: dogs the next week of more than five points, so

1531
01:13:15,560 --> 01:13:18,160
Speaker 3: everyone's you know, it got blown out. The next week

1532
01:13:18,160 --> 01:13:20,400
Speaker 3: their home dogs and at least five points. This also

1533
01:13:20,439 --> 01:13:24,639
Speaker 3: applies to the Jets since two thousand and three seventy five,

1534
01:13:24,800 --> 01:13:27,439
Speaker 3: forty seven and two against the spread sixty one and

1535
01:13:27,439 --> 01:13:30,439
Speaker 3: a half percent. So I like the Eagles that anything

1536
01:13:30,520 --> 01:13:34,120
Speaker 3: seven or above. It's hard to see the Chiefs losing

1537
01:13:34,280 --> 01:13:39,479
Speaker 3: another game and dropping to one and three. They're zero

1538
01:13:39,479 --> 01:13:41,720
Speaker 3: and three against the spread. But my prediction is we

1539
01:13:41,760 --> 01:13:44,439
Speaker 3: probably don't see that and reads return. You know a

1540
01:13:44,479 --> 01:13:47,400
Speaker 3: lot of homecomings this week. My prediction is the Chiefs

1541
01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:50,639
Speaker 3: win another game, but I call it four this time.

1542
01:13:51,520 --> 01:13:54,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can see that. I don't see them losing.

1543
01:13:54,240 --> 01:13:56,840
Speaker 2: I do see the ugly game though. I'm probably leaning

1544
01:13:56,920 --> 01:13:59,960
Speaker 2: under on this one. And you like the Eagles, you know,

1545
01:14:00,439 --> 01:14:02,400
Speaker 2: I can't. I can't argue with it. I mean, the

1546
01:14:02,439 --> 01:14:05,040
Speaker 2: Chiefs just haven't covered and Mahomes is now because they

1547
01:14:05,080 --> 01:14:07,160
Speaker 2: were winning those games that they weren't covering. Now they're

1548
01:14:07,200 --> 01:14:11,280
Speaker 2: not because Mahomes is making uncharacteristic mistakes. And let's be honest,

1549
01:14:11,280 --> 01:14:13,559
Speaker 2: he really hasn't looked right against pressure since the Super Bowl.

1550
01:14:13,640 --> 01:14:15,000
Speaker 2: I don't know if there was some type of booprint

1551
01:14:15,000 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 2: out there, whereas that was the last game everyone saw,

1552
01:14:17,000 --> 01:14:19,880
Speaker 2: everyone studied it, you know, but teams, the Chiefs haven't

1553
01:14:19,880 --> 01:14:22,959
Speaker 2: looked quite as invincible. But let's go to Houston at Buffalo.

1554
01:14:23,360 --> 01:14:26,080
Speaker 2: Buffalo seventeen point favorite. The total was forty seven.

1555
01:14:26,960 --> 01:14:29,160
Speaker 3: Nothing near. I mean, favorites are more than two touchdowns.

1556
01:14:29,160 --> 01:14:31,479
Speaker 3: Since twenty three, forty forty and two against the spread.

1557
01:14:31,720 --> 01:14:33,760
Speaker 3: Buffalo has been trying out different things. It's a hard

1558
01:14:33,800 --> 01:14:36,720
Speaker 3: game to project. Like they they're back to now more zone.

1559
01:14:36,840 --> 01:14:38,519
Speaker 3: They went one week where they were playing a lot

1560
01:14:38,560 --> 01:14:40,880
Speaker 3: of men and then they were trying eleven personnel for why.

1561
01:14:41,200 --> 01:14:42,960
Speaker 3: So they're tinkering with things. Of these games they know

1562
01:14:43,000 --> 01:14:45,280
Speaker 3: they can win. I doubt they show much here. They

1563
01:14:45,360 --> 01:14:47,759
Speaker 3: might try some things. They have the Chiefs on deck,

1564
01:14:48,160 --> 01:14:52,400
Speaker 3: big revenge game. They might sit on this. I make

1565
01:14:52,760 --> 01:14:55,120
Speaker 3: the line spot on this is and I just don't

1566
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:55,840
Speaker 3: touch this game.

1567
01:14:56,800 --> 01:14:59,639
Speaker 2: Carolina at Dallas. Dallas four and a half point favorites

1568
01:14:59,680 --> 01:15:02,160
Speaker 2: to total fifty and a half. I've actually liked what

1569
01:15:02,200 --> 01:15:04,639
Speaker 2: I've seen out of Dallas's defense. It might sound crazy,

1570
01:15:04,640 --> 01:15:07,559
Speaker 2: but I think Diggs is playing very well. I think

1571
01:15:07,600 --> 01:15:10,879
Speaker 2: Michael Parsons helps that defense. I'm tempted to take Dallas

1572
01:15:10,880 --> 01:15:13,120
Speaker 2: in the under here, but I might just stay away.

1573
01:15:13,200 --> 01:15:14,920
Speaker 2: I just we've seen We've seen a lot of good

1574
01:15:14,960 --> 01:15:17,040
Speaker 2: things out of Carolina. What do you think of this one?

1575
01:15:17,320 --> 01:15:19,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm leaning towards Dallas here. I was really impressed.

1576
01:15:19,560 --> 01:15:22,200
Speaker 3: Our defense is flying around, obviously benefiting from turnover luck.

1577
01:15:22,640 --> 01:15:25,680
Speaker 3: So there's turnover luck, and then the Carolina has one

1578
01:15:25,680 --> 01:15:27,200
Speaker 3: of the easiest schedules you ever see them, and they

1579
01:15:27,240 --> 01:15:29,960
Speaker 3: played two rookie quarterbacks. They played the Saints in an

1580
01:15:30,000 --> 01:15:33,639
Speaker 3: awful spot with a decimated you know, they had injuries,

1581
01:15:33,640 --> 01:15:36,599
Speaker 3: they had missing eight assistants, so we didn't really learn

1582
01:15:36,720 --> 01:15:39,120
Speaker 3: much about them. They do have a long week. They

1583
01:15:39,160 --> 01:15:42,080
Speaker 3: have long preparation though, so they played Thursday and then

1584
01:15:42,200 --> 01:15:44,559
Speaker 3: the Cowboys played Monday, so there's like three or four

1585
01:15:44,640 --> 01:15:48,400
Speaker 3: extra days. There's no McCaffrey, and Hubbard hasn't impressed me.

1586
01:15:48,479 --> 01:15:50,439
Speaker 3: I think that's ultimately going to be the difference is

1587
01:15:50,439 --> 01:15:53,200
Speaker 3: no McCaffrey in this game, and I'll take Dak the

1588
01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:55,679
Speaker 3: way Dak is playing right now over Sam Darnold every

1589
01:15:55,760 --> 01:15:57,920
Speaker 3: day of the week, and McCaffrey would have been big,

1590
01:15:57,960 --> 01:16:01,480
Speaker 3: because I think that's how you exploit this. This Cowboys

1591
01:16:01,520 --> 01:16:04,040
Speaker 3: defense is with the with your backs, which the Eagles

1592
01:16:04,040 --> 01:16:07,519
Speaker 3: obviously failed to realize. And also Panthers are without three

1593
01:16:07,560 --> 01:16:10,040
Speaker 3: of their five defensive backs that they used in nickel

1594
01:16:10,080 --> 01:16:13,519
Speaker 3: situations in Week one. Burris is hurt, their safety J. C.

1595
01:16:13,760 --> 01:16:16,639
Speaker 3: Horn is out for an extended time, their first round

1596
01:16:16,720 --> 01:16:20,519
Speaker 3: draft pick at corner, and Miles Hartsfield is out as well,

1597
01:16:20,680 --> 01:16:23,200
Speaker 3: so that causing the trade for CJ. Henderson, who is

1598
01:16:23,200 --> 01:16:25,519
Speaker 3: going to play this week like he's learning a whole

1599
01:16:25,520 --> 01:16:28,599
Speaker 3: new defense against Dak. That's gonna be a messy. So

1600
01:16:28,920 --> 01:16:30,800
Speaker 3: I lean Cowboys here, even though it's a bad spot

1601
01:16:30,840 --> 01:16:32,479
Speaker 3: in a short week against a team in a long week.

1602
01:16:33,000 --> 01:16:34,800
Speaker 3: Give me Dak over Darnold any day of the week.

1603
01:16:35,040 --> 01:16:37,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's not usually the type of pick I make,

1604
01:16:37,400 --> 01:16:39,559
Speaker 2: you know, favorite in that dead zone four and a half,

1605
01:16:39,600 --> 01:16:41,800
Speaker 2: But I could see this like thirty four to seven

1606
01:16:41,920 --> 01:16:47,240
Speaker 2: Cowboys Washington ated Wanta. I got Washington at plus one

1607
01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:49,439
Speaker 2: and a half. Now they're minus one and a half.

1608
01:16:49,560 --> 01:16:52,320
Speaker 2: I'd probably stay away here. It's just another coin flip game.

1609
01:16:52,520 --> 01:16:54,240
Speaker 2: The one thing about this game for me is that

1610
01:16:54,439 --> 01:16:56,720
Speaker 2: Atlanta the reason I, you know, I faded them the

1611
01:16:56,760 --> 01:17:00,120
Speaker 2: first two weeks, picked them last week because it was like, Okay,

1612
01:17:00,160 --> 01:17:01,760
Speaker 2: they're not gonna have They're not gonna be outgunn in

1613
01:17:01,760 --> 01:17:04,760
Speaker 2: the trenches. Even though Washington and you called this before

1614
01:17:04,800 --> 01:17:07,080
Speaker 2: the season or defense has them good, they're still third

1615
01:17:07,080 --> 01:17:09,280
Speaker 2: in the league in pressure rate. I still think they

1616
01:17:09,280 --> 01:17:11,799
Speaker 2: are better on both sides the ball in the trenches,

1617
01:17:12,000 --> 01:17:14,360
Speaker 2: and in a coin flip game, I'm gonna side with Washington.

1618
01:17:14,439 --> 01:17:16,200
Speaker 2: But I just wouldn't touch this now that their favorite

1619
01:17:16,400 --> 01:17:16,920
Speaker 2: What do you think?

1620
01:17:17,160 --> 01:17:19,519
Speaker 3: What is wrong with the Falcons? Arthur Spit The Falcons

1621
01:17:19,560 --> 01:17:23,400
Speaker 3: off with thirty second ranked rush offense and twenty eighth

1622
01:17:23,600 --> 01:17:27,439
Speaker 3: ranked passing offense. They did nothing last week. The Giants

1623
01:17:27,479 --> 01:17:31,679
Speaker 3: had some injuries. They got just dominated by the Eagles.

1624
01:17:31,680 --> 01:17:32,200
Speaker 3: In Week one.

1625
01:17:32,479 --> 01:17:33,720
Speaker 2: They actually played with the.

1626
01:17:33,680 --> 01:17:36,080
Speaker 3: Bucks into the fourth quarter, which tells you about how

1627
01:17:36,080 --> 01:17:38,600
Speaker 3: that Bucks defense is playing. Not great right now? That

1628
01:17:38,760 --> 01:17:41,479
Speaker 3: was the Falcon's best game, twenty eight twenty five in

1629
01:17:41,520 --> 01:17:43,920
Speaker 3: the fourth quarter for a couple of pick sixes. But yeah,

1630
01:17:43,920 --> 01:17:46,680
Speaker 3: this Falcons team is a mess right now? Is the

1631
01:17:47,040 --> 01:17:50,479
Speaker 3: well the Washington defense step up and make plays that

1632
01:17:50,640 --> 01:17:52,680
Speaker 3: the Falcons defense is also a mess as well. I

1633
01:17:52,680 --> 01:17:54,080
Speaker 3: don't hate it, but nothing for me there.

1634
01:17:55,160 --> 01:17:59,080
Speaker 2: And finally, the Cardinals at the Rams. This is probably

1635
01:17:59,080 --> 01:18:01,479
Speaker 2: what I'm just gonna enjoy the game. You know, it's

1636
01:18:01,520 --> 01:18:03,599
Speaker 2: in that dead zone. It's minus five for the Rams.

1637
01:18:03,600 --> 01:18:06,280
Speaker 2: Fifty four and a half is a total. It was

1638
01:18:06,320 --> 01:18:08,080
Speaker 2: at six for a while and I thought about the Carters,

1639
01:18:08,120 --> 01:18:09,880
Speaker 2: but it quickly moved down. I didn't get a chance

1640
01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:11,559
Speaker 2: to hop in, so it's a stay away from me.

1641
01:18:11,600 --> 01:18:12,160
Speaker 2: What do you think?

1642
01:18:12,600 --> 01:18:14,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I make it five. I think five

1643
01:18:14,479 --> 01:18:17,360
Speaker 3: fifty four, five fifty three, I mean I make it right.

1644
01:18:17,400 --> 01:18:19,840
Speaker 3: There are the Rams gonna have a little letdown. I

1645
01:18:19,840 --> 01:18:21,920
Speaker 3: mean McVeigh was running all over the field. A little

1646
01:18:21,920 --> 01:18:26,160
Speaker 3: emotional letdown here. I don't know. McVeigh has owned the Cardinals.

1647
01:18:26,160 --> 01:18:28,240
Speaker 3: He's eight to zero against them in his tenure with

1648
01:18:28,280 --> 01:18:32,519
Speaker 3: the Rams. Murray ohero and four against the Rams QB

1649
01:18:32,680 --> 01:18:35,880
Speaker 3: rating seventy five one hundred and eighty seven passing yards

1650
01:18:35,880 --> 01:18:41,400
Speaker 3: per game, five touchdowns, four interceptions, thirteen rushes forty six yards,

1651
01:18:41,560 --> 01:18:45,280
Speaker 3: one touchdown, three lost fumbles. That means he has six

1652
01:18:45,320 --> 01:18:48,880
Speaker 3: total touchdowns and seven turnovers in the four games, all

1653
01:18:48,920 --> 01:18:52,360
Speaker 3: losses against the Rams. He's only rushed for forty six yards.

1654
01:18:52,360 --> 01:18:56,240
Speaker 3: He's taken eleven sacks for ninety one yards. So the

1655
01:18:56,360 --> 01:19:02,320
Speaker 3: Rams seem to have Cardinals number here. We'll see what

1656
01:19:02,400 --> 01:19:05,080
Speaker 3: Arizona can do. The Rams are the fastest offense in

1657
01:19:05,120 --> 01:19:08,960
Speaker 3: the NFL neutral pay situation, so it's tough to back

1658
01:19:09,600 --> 01:19:11,720
Speaker 3: to back it under here with these you know, two

1659
01:19:11,800 --> 01:19:16,200
Speaker 3: high flying offenses, but divisional game two undefeated teams, I

1660
01:19:16,200 --> 01:19:18,759
Speaker 3: can I can see it being, you know, starting slower

1661
01:19:18,800 --> 01:19:21,719
Speaker 3: than some would anticipate, but nothing for me here.

1662
01:19:22,400 --> 01:19:24,120
Speaker 2: Gun In my head, I go with the Rams here.

1663
01:19:24,160 --> 01:19:26,320
Speaker 2: They've just dominated and I don't think the Cardinals have

1664
01:19:26,400 --> 01:19:29,720
Speaker 2: anyone to cover Cooper Cup. But let's get into our

1665
01:19:29,760 --> 01:19:34,160
Speaker 2: last segment, and that's our Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1666
01:19:38,120 --> 01:19:40,599
Speaker 3: The Survivorpool pick of the week.

1667
01:19:42,439 --> 01:19:44,280
Speaker 2: All right, stug, we're both still alive. You went San

1668
01:19:44,400 --> 01:19:47,120
Speaker 2: Fran Cleveland, Denver. I went stan Fran Green Bay, Carolina

1669
01:19:47,280 --> 01:19:49,880
Speaker 2: in the first three. Where are you going before? I mean,

1670
01:19:49,880 --> 01:19:52,200
Speaker 2: the Bills are the obvious pick, but they're the Bills.

1671
01:19:52,000 --> 01:19:53,360
Speaker 3: Are one of the best teams in the NFL. I want

1672
01:19:53,360 --> 01:19:55,880
Speaker 3: to obviously save them. And there's a lot of these

1673
01:19:55,920 --> 01:19:58,559
Speaker 3: seven point favorites that are scary to me that I

1674
01:19:58,560 --> 01:20:00,840
Speaker 3: can see losing, and I hope some of them do that.

1675
01:20:00,840 --> 01:20:03,160
Speaker 3: I bet against theid for Survivor, but I went with

1676
01:20:03,200 --> 01:20:05,000
Speaker 3: the Bengals. When am I going to use the Bengals again?

1677
01:20:05,920 --> 01:20:07,680
Speaker 3: I don't know, Probably not, So this is a good

1678
01:20:07,680 --> 01:20:09,280
Speaker 3: week to use the Bengals in my opinion. I'm using

1679
01:20:09,280 --> 01:20:10,240
Speaker 3: Bengals on Thursday Night.

1680
01:20:10,720 --> 01:20:13,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you here. I'm going Bengals too. I mean,

1681
01:20:13,439 --> 01:20:15,760
Speaker 2: it's only right for me to continue to fade Urban

1682
01:20:15,800 --> 01:20:18,360
Speaker 2: and I agree the Bills you could use them against

1683
01:20:18,560 --> 01:20:20,439
Speaker 2: Still two games against the Jets coming up for the Bills,

1684
01:20:20,439 --> 01:20:23,639
Speaker 2: so I want to save them. That's gonna do it.

1685
01:20:23,680 --> 01:20:27,520
Speaker 2: For the Action Network NFL Podcast for Week four, presented

1686
01:20:27,680 --> 01:20:30,200
Speaker 2: by bet MGM. Remember you can follow all of our

1687
01:20:30,200 --> 01:20:33,120
Speaker 2: picks on the award winning Action Network app. Just search

1688
01:20:33,200 --> 01:20:36,759
Speaker 2: for Sunday six pack in the Action Apps Follow feature.

1689
01:20:36,800 --> 01:20:39,600
Speaker 2: You can find Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two. You

1690
01:20:39,640 --> 01:20:41,880
Speaker 2: can find me on Twitter at Chris Raybond. You can

1691
01:20:41,920 --> 01:20:44,840
Speaker 2: find our content at actionnetwork dot com and in the

1692
01:20:44,960 --> 01:20:47,240
Speaker 2: Action app, and you can find our fantasy content as

1693
01:20:47,240 --> 01:20:50,640
Speaker 2: well at actionnetwork dot com or GFS content at fantasyabs

1694
01:20:50,680 --> 01:20:53,799
Speaker 2: dot com. Until next week, Let's get this money.

1695
01:20:54,240 --> 01:20:57,879
Speaker 3: Let go