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Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 3: Joining us now in our studios in Hong Kong for
Speaker 3: a discussion about inflation and deflation is Way Yao, head
Speaker 3: of Research and Chief Economists for the Asia Pacific Associate
Speaker 3: General cib Well. Y'all, thanks very much for being with us.
Speaker 3: Let's talk a little bit about the data we'll get
Speaker 3: this morning. In about twenty minutes or so seventeen to
Speaker 3: twenty minutes, we'll get the PPI numbers and the CPI
Speaker 3: numbers for the month of March. Still expecting a negative
Speaker 3: number on PPI minus two point eight percent is the
Speaker 3: survey estimate CPI, though I should show an increase of
Speaker 3: zero point four percent, and that would be the second
Speaker 3: consecutive month of being in positive territory. Can we take
Speaker 3: that as a wee bit of good news?
Speaker 4: Well, maybe it's just a wee bit of good news,
Speaker 4: But I think structurally things haven't really changed much. If
Speaker 4: you look at the economic situation in China, it continued
Speaker 4: to be a challenge of not enough do miss the
Speaker 4: demand and a lot of supply so and a policy
Speaker 4: on the policy front, there is not much significant to
Speaker 4: address this issue.
Speaker 1: So when you're dealing with deflation, particularly at the factory
Speaker 1: gate level the wholesale level, what's the remedy here? I mean,
Speaker 1: is there a way to kind of give maybe a
Speaker 1: little bit of guidance to policymakers in China on a
Speaker 1: way that they could arrest this situation.
Speaker 4: Well, there's a lot of focus about China's over capacity issue.
Speaker 4: I agree, you know, China does have so much supply. However,
Speaker 4: I would think the problem liesing more of a lack
Speaker 4: of domestic demand in the sense that you know, China,
Speaker 4: because of the housing crash, is losing a big engine
Speaker 4: of domestic demound and the policy is very much tutored
Speaker 4: towards supply. So I think it's a matter of balancing
Speaker 4: the policy more towards demand rather than supply.
Speaker 3: So we're trying to get Chinese consumers spending again and
Speaker 3: a moment ago you said you kind of referred to
Speaker 3: Chinese policy making as substandard.
Speaker 2: Almost.
Speaker 4: Well, it's unbalanced, I would say, because it's pretty clear
Speaker 4: what they want to achieve for good reason, because you know,
Speaker 4: I think the the idea here of the top leadership
Speaker 4: is to boost the productivity growth by you know, moving
Speaker 4: China up the value chain. However, you know, it's it
Speaker 4: may not be entirely the remedy here, given that we
Speaker 4: are in a deflation or environ and if China continue
Speaker 4: on supporting supply, it's going to cause trade engions, which
Speaker 4: we're already seen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a little confounding. I mean, you talked about
Speaker 1: the overcapacity issue, and then when you listen to what
Speaker 1: the government is saying that industrial policy will be the
Speaker 1: way of reviving economic activity, it doesn't really make sense,
Speaker 1: does it.
Speaker 4: Well, it's just that they have a long term view
Speaker 4: that where this is where China should be, and it
Speaker 4: seems that there's not much willingness to adjust to the
Speaker 4: reality that you know, they have this deflation problem at hand,
Speaker 4: or maybe they don't worry about this as much as
Speaker 4: we do. I think, you know what, it's just going
Speaker 4: to take more convincing to make them at least change calls.
Speaker 4: Right now, the export momentum seem to be picking up,
Speaker 4: so it doesn't seem to be the time yet.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you look long term, okay, you're thinking industrialization,
Speaker 3: building up tech, the chest is stuck out. But then
Speaker 3: short term you're thinking, hey, we got to get this
Speaker 3: economy moving again. How do you stimulate consumers to get
Speaker 3: the spending.
Speaker 4: Well, the one thing they talked about which got us
Speaker 4: a little bit excited is subsidizing you know, the replacement
Speaker 4: or upgrade of home appliances. However, we haven't heard much
Speaker 4: follow up at least. You know, what we really need
Speaker 4: to see is government actually providing tangible amount of fiscal
Speaker 4: support to households, either on the consumption side or income side.
Speaker 4: Another pass to the long term sustainable growth of consumptions,
Speaker 4: obviously to beef of the social security system, but that
Speaker 4: again is a slow moving process.
Speaker 1: When you look at the tension between the US and
Speaker 1: China right now, particularly in areas of high technology, I
Speaker 1: mean the barriers that have been established export controls limiting
Speaker 1: China's access to some of the most sophisticated high tech technology.
Speaker 1: Are you sensing that this is having a meaningful impact
Speaker 1: on the economy or is it something we only talk
Speaker 1: about kind of marginally.
Speaker 4: It is not too obvious yet, but I suppose you know,
Speaker 4: this does indeed the limits put some limits on China's
Speaker 4: development in terms of you know, AI all right, you know?
Speaker 4: And I think one consequence, one clear consequence from all
Speaker 4: these US policy is actually making China, making the Chinese
Speaker 4: policy makers even want to double down on the supply
Speaker 4: strategy more so, you see, this is the response to
Speaker 4: Chinese leadership is coming up towards the US. Maybe we
Speaker 4: could think of if the US were to relax, be
Speaker 4: more relaxed about China, and China would be more willing
Speaker 4: to rebalance. Who knows.
Speaker 3: We're seeing more efforts to try to stimulate the housing market.
Speaker 3: We have a leading newspaper this morning, the Economic Observer
Speaker 3: in China, saying that many Chinese cities now are cutting
Speaker 3: or they're doing some targeted easing. Here fifteen cities have
Speaker 3: removed the lower limit for mortgage rates on first first
Speaker 3: time home purchases, and some four cities have relaxed housing
Speaker 3: provident fund. Can they do more?
Speaker 4: Well, they can do more, certainly, But I guess I
Speaker 4: guess you know, one short term problem for them is
Speaker 4: they really need to address the issue that developers do
Speaker 4: not have the trust of households to finish project uh
Speaker 4: and and if this problem can be addressed, that I
Speaker 4: believe some of the demands could come back. Because you
Speaker 4: look at the sales of finished apartments, they're pretty decent.
Speaker 4: It's the other part, which the unfinished part, you know,
Speaker 4: it's really really distressed. But ultimately you you know it's
Speaker 4: it's it's a market force, right. The price is probably
Speaker 4: may need to forb more for the households to be
Speaker 4: more willing to come back, because if you look at
Speaker 4: the affordability of the housing prices in the big cities
Speaker 4: in China, it's very hard to say they're cheap enough.
Speaker 1: Next week we get the monthly activity data. Is there
Speaker 1: something that you're looking for that could represent a big surprise,
Speaker 1: something maybe that the market is not prepared for, or
Speaker 1: do you think market participants have a pretty good understanding
Speaker 1: of what's happening on the mainland insofar as the economy
Speaker 1: is concerned.
Speaker 4: So data wise, I think the expectation or kind of
Speaker 4: the consensus here is, you know, cyclically, things are not
Speaker 4: getting worse. At least there is a bit of improvement
Speaker 4: on the supply side, industrial side, slow progress on the
Speaker 4: consumption if anything. The positive surprise, if any, will be
Speaker 4: you know, the consumption data, the retail sales. But the
Speaker 4: downside risks is if the supplies I also lose momentum.
Speaker 4: But it doesn't seem to be the case yet.
Speaker 3: So if we look at the Chinese economy way out
Speaker 3: and think about external inputs versus internal you know, domestic consumption,
Speaker 3: which will perform the best over the next six months
Speaker 3: and which really holds the key to getting the economy
Speaker 3: really roaring again.
Speaker 4: So our expectation is that the extern turnal demount will improve.
Speaker 4: As we can see cross Asia, you know, the trade
Speaker 4: momentum is really picking up, so that were help China too.
Speaker 4: Domestic our assumption is you know, consumption income. It continues
Speaker 4: its very gradual pace of recovery. Housing may only find
Speaker 4: a button by the end of this year if the
Speaker 4: policy keeps at it.
Speaker 1: What about the labor market, particularly where the younger people.
Speaker 4: Are concerned, Well, so that's going to be a derivative
Speaker 4: of all these forces. Essentially, you know, we don't have
Speaker 4: big positive force to improve the labor market very fast
Speaker 4: because jobs are not generated by the manufacturing sector, you know,
Speaker 4: in terms of the majority of the jobs, it has
Speaker 4: to be the service sector doing better. But the service
Speaker 4: sector is you know, has challenges. Yeah, and things don't
Speaker 4: change fast.
Speaker 3: We just had the PBOC keep the fix steady to
Speaker 3: support that you want after this big jump in the
Speaker 3: dollar just twenty seconds or so, do you like the
Speaker 3: way the PBOC is managing the currency?
Speaker 4: The PBOC is uh, you know, I would say it
Speaker 4: seems that the thinking here is they don't want too
Speaker 4: weak currency. They sort of throw a little bit test
Speaker 4: to the market once in a while to see, you know,
Speaker 4: if they weaken to fix what happens. And it seems
Speaker 4: that what happened was not what they liked. So it
Speaker 4: doesn't seem there would be willingness to devalue the currency
Speaker 4: to generate inflation.
Speaker 3: All right, way, y'all's with us, head of Research and
Speaker 3: Chief Economists for the Asia Pacific Associated General. Joining us
Speaker 3: now in our studios in Hong Kong is Stephanie holtz Gen,
Speaker 3: the Asia Pacific CIO at Deutsche Bank for further discussion
Speaker 3: about markets. So I think the contrast is very interesting
Speaker 3: very compelling something to talk about. A very hot inflation
Speaker 3: reading Stephanie in the United States, a very cool inflation
Speaker 3: reading in China, yet both countries are very much right
Speaker 3: smack dab in the middle of global supply. How do
Speaker 3: we make sense of that?
Speaker 2: Well, it's been a dynamic that is around with us
Speaker 2: for a while, and I think the explanation goes way
Speaker 2: back to the way the reopening after COVID has been handled.
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure I'm adding much news here, but
Speaker 2: I think the unfortunate part is that the macroeconomic data
Speaker 2: in China keeps on being uneven. So we had a
Speaker 2: set of fairly optimistic data when we saw the pm
Speaker 2: I swing back into expansionary territory just slightly so, and
Speaker 2: then you know, other readings are still coming in below expectations.
Speaker 2: So it's something that needs to be taken into account.
Speaker 2: As one says as the investment opportunity, we look at
Speaker 2: it as a second half of the year opportunity. In China.
Speaker 2: We had a tactical trade on and I think we
Speaker 2: need to be careful and stay on the sidelines for
Speaker 2: the time being because we don't have the whole mix
Speaker 2: of macroeconomics, sentiment and the following flow all showing in
Speaker 2: the right direction.
Speaker 1: So many of the guests that we have on this
Speaker 1: program when they talk about the problem at its core
Speaker 1: is just the absence of positive sentiment, and when you
Speaker 1: don't have consumer engagement in an economy and you don't
Speaker 1: have domestic demand, I mean there are ramifications for that, right.
Speaker 1: Is there a policy prescription that you can think of
Speaker 1: that might improve the behavior of the consumer in China.
Speaker 2: I think there's been a lot of policy efforts to
Speaker 2: support the consumer sentiment. So we have seen a lot
Speaker 2: of physical stimulus quite targeted as well in terms of
Speaker 2: stimulating the consumer to not just save, not just to
Speaker 2: repay loans, but go and invest and purchase in the economy.
Speaker 2: But it's still underwhelming, as we've seen recently in the
Speaker 2: retail sales data as well. But in terms of the
Speaker 2: market opportunity, of course it's twofold. There's an international investor
Speaker 2: sentiment that I think is still needs more to be convinced,
Speaker 2: and I I took that stance, and again I mentioned
Speaker 2: that technical trading opportunity that we saw and then moved
Speaker 2: to the sidelines. About one and a half weeks ago
Speaker 2: when we saw the government weakening the currency with the
Speaker 2: less positive fixing, which I actually interpreted as a sign
Speaker 2: of confidence from a Chinese perspective. But the market, it was,
Speaker 2: the market not at all exactly sold off right away.
Speaker 3: I remember that comment so clearly. It was a couple
Speaker 3: of weeks ago, and you were in Singapore, and the
Speaker 3: reason we have you back now is you're here in
Speaker 3: Hong Kong and it's great to get you into our studios.
Speaker 3: I remember you're not that positive on China, but that
Speaker 3: you were pretty positive on Japan and India. Let's start
Speaker 3: off with Japan significant weakness in the end this morning
Speaker 3: and threats from policymakers. Are you still really confident in
Speaker 3: the upside possibilities in Japan?
Speaker 2: So the Japan investment opportunity, whether that is the structural
Speaker 2: angle to it, because of the government, you know, of
Speaker 2: the reforms around the Tokyo Stock Exchange that will improve governance,
Speaker 2: as well as the cycle girl elements that drive the
Speaker 2: market higher, which is the weekend that you just mentioned.
Speaker 2: These are still remaining intact. Of course, we have to
Speaker 2: be absolutely ary about the Ministry of Finance ability to
Speaker 2: change the course of the currency. But I also remain
Speaker 2: of the opinion that it's a double edged sword for
Speaker 2: the Japanese authorities to really intervene. And I think this
Speaker 2: is also why we are seeing this being on a
Speaker 2: verbal tune, and that is also why the market is
Speaker 2: not really taking its clue and going meaningful of the
Speaker 2: other way. So I think what they are doing is
Speaker 2: they will be verbally intervening to slow down the depreciation,
Speaker 2: but it will be very difficult to change the course
Speaker 2: because it's benefiting in export let economy, it's benefiting the
Speaker 2: investment opportunity in an overall slowing growth environment. So I
Speaker 2: think it's prudent to have this run for a little
Speaker 2: bit more.
Speaker 1: So I think we can agree, yeah, that a weekend
Speaker 1: would be positive for the exporting companies. But Prime Minister
Speaker 1: case as in the US today, and one of the
Speaker 1: things that was unveiled at the White House in a
Speaker 1: joint press conference with President Biden was this investment this
Speaker 1: program for to drive innovation in terms of artificial intelligence.
Speaker 1: And when I think of AI as it relates to Japan,
Speaker 1: that's really not an export story, is it is that
Speaker 1: an opportunity for you to want to put money to
Speaker 1: work in AI related companies in Japan.
Speaker 2: Well, we're looking at this in the context also of
Speaker 2: the alliances that Japan has been forging around the semiconductor space,
Speaker 2: you know, and you know, just enlarged this into more
Speaker 2: the it and now you're talking about AI conversation. I
Speaker 2: think that's as an important, you know, alliance that's been
Speaker 2: fostered and definitely is an investment pocket in a sector
Speaker 2: that needs to be looked at. It is it is
Speaker 2: not benefiting of the weekend necessarily, but you know another
Speaker 2: sector is, for instance, it's tourism. You know, everyone still
Speaker 2: in Hong Kong, everywhere I go in Asia has a
Speaker 2: top destination in Japan because of the weekend as well.
Speaker 2: So there are many different elements to why the yen
Speaker 2: weakness can run.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I know that you're still positive on megacap
Speaker 3: tech in the United States, so we don't have time
Speaker 3: to get into that now. But even with these sort
Speaker 3: of sticky levels of inflation that we're seeing. Stephanie, thanks
Speaker 3: so much for joining us in our studios. We talk
Speaker 3: again soon. Stephanie Holtz, jen apac cio at Deutsche Bank. Well,
Speaker 3: joining us now for some discussion of the same as Lindsay,
Speaker 3: Pigg's chief economist at Stifel. So, Lindsay, it does seem
Speaker 3: sort of a slam dunk. I would imagine that June
Speaker 3: is off the table. However, there will be a considerable
Speaker 3: amount of data that we get between now and then.
Speaker 3: How are you looking at rates here over the next
Speaker 3: month or two, Well, I.
Speaker 5: Think given the baseline for the economy, growth accelerating beyond expectations,
Speaker 5: a still very spendy consumer, a labor market slightly less
Speaker 5: tight than it was, but still very tight, this is
Speaker 5: further justification for the FED to remain on the sidelines
Speaker 5: at the current policy level. And so our base case remains,
Speaker 5: as it has since the turn of the calendar year,
Speaker 5: that the Fed will wait until the second half of
Speaker 5: the year before initiating rate cuts. Now, with inflation reversing
Speaker 5: course as of late, I do think it's going to
Speaker 5: be difficult for the FED to justify anything beyond one
Speaker 5: or two rate reductions, And even so, after initiating that pathway,
Speaker 5: if we failed to see meaningful improvement, we could see
Speaker 5: a second round pause after that. So the FED moving
Speaker 5: back to the sidelines after just twenty five or fifty
Speaker 5: basis points of cuts.
Speaker 1: You have to remember too, last Friday's employment did it
Speaker 1: was very very strong. We were one hundred thousand above
Speaker 1: forecast in terms of non farm payroll growth. I think
Speaker 1: initially we went into the data with a number of
Speaker 1: around two hundred k. We came out three hundred k.
Speaker 1: Is there a risk in your view that we could
Speaker 1: see enough or hike.
Speaker 6: There is, but that scenario has to be very specific.
Speaker 5: I would need to see inflation reverse core in a
Speaker 5: meaningful way and in a persistent manner. So we would
Speaker 5: need to see a continued upward trajectory really forcing the
Speaker 5: Fed into a corner in order to re engage in
Speaker 5: order to continue with hikes. Right now, with the inflation
Speaker 5: level just taking slightly higher, I don't think that's enough
Speaker 5: to scare the Fed into further rate hikes, but again,
Speaker 5: it does justify further position on the sideline.
Speaker 3: You know, slightly higher inflation is not good news to
Speaker 3: low income people, and it's not good news for the
Speaker 3: housing market or for small companies that have floating rate loans,
Speaker 3: but it may not have a huge effect on company earnings.
Speaker 3: And if we don't see that, then we'll probably see
Speaker 3: you know, labor staying relatively strong with companies, and so ultimately,
Speaker 3: I mean, is this a good news story or bad
Speaker 3: news story for the economy.
Speaker 6: Well, it really depends.
Speaker 5: But my biggest concern is right now that the US
Speaker 5: economy appears to be resilient. That being said, momentum is
Speaker 5: clearly waning. Consumers are still spending, businesses are still investing,
Speaker 5: but they're doing so at a noticeably reduced pace. So
Speaker 5: activity has already gone from five percent in the third
Speaker 5: quarter to three percent at year end, likely a two
Speaker 5: is ish percent pace in twenty twenty four. But where
Speaker 5: do we go from here if growth continues to slow
Speaker 5: to a non accelerating pace or at least fall below
Speaker 5: the bare minimum that we should expect for a developed economy.
Speaker 5: But the Fed is still sitting on the sidelines, twiddling
Speaker 5: their thumbs, allowing inflation to remain above target. Well, now
Speaker 5: they've backed this, you know areas I don't think you
Speaker 5: can say.
Speaker 3: You can't really say twiddling their thumbs, because you know,
Speaker 3: we have to say they were very aggressive in getting
Speaker 3: the FED funds rate up to five and a half percent.
Speaker 3: That's well above where inflation is now, and it's well
Speaker 3: above the noise. So it's not like they're sitting on
Speaker 3: their hands, really, it's just that they're holding at very
Speaker 3: high levels.
Speaker 5: Well, I would argue that they had a hyper focus
Speaker 5: on achieving a soft landing, and with that focus, I
Speaker 5: think they fail to raise rates to a sufficiently restrictive level. Well,
Speaker 5: look at cycles. Historically, the FED typically has to raise
Speaker 5: rates above the peak level of inflation. This time they
Speaker 5: arguably stop short at five percent, and so I am
Speaker 5: concerned that the FED has not done enough to tame inflation.
Speaker 1: One of the things that we've been talking about is
Speaker 1: possible risk in the financial system is the result of
Speaker 1: rates remaining elevated for the foreseeable future. One of the
Speaker 1: reasons maybe that some of the regional banks were a
Speaker 1: hard hit today given the spike and yield. Are you
Speaker 1: confident that we have really seen the worst of the stress.
Speaker 1: Maybe that's related to some areas of the commercial real
Speaker 1: estate market.
Speaker 5: No, I'm certainly not, and I would say that's one
Speaker 5: of the biggest risks for the economy over the next
Speaker 5: twelve to twenty five or months, with trillions and commercial
Speaker 5: loans coming due that are going to reset at significantly
Speaker 5: higher rates, and so that's going to require a significant
Speaker 5: amount of capital to write size those loans. Now, that's
Speaker 5: not to say that can't happen or that commercial real
Speaker 5: estate is essentially the next shoe to drop, But there
Speaker 5: is a contagion effect when we talk about this paper,
Speaker 5: the majority of which is being held on the balance
Speaker 5: sheet of financial institutions that have less than two hundred
Speaker 5: and fifty billion in assets, so that there is still
Speaker 5: concern about further weakness in the banking sector, although the
Speaker 5: latest commentary from the FED does suggest that we're still
Speaker 5: at very stable conditions as of late.
Speaker 3: You know, one of the things that Jamie Diamond mentioned
Speaker 3: in is islong letter to shareholders was that we may
Speaker 3: see a structurally higher level of inflation for a considerable
Speaker 3: period because of some new factors. One might be the
Speaker 3: geopolitical concerns the wars that are underway, but also the
Speaker 3: reindustrialization of the American economy and some other factors as well.
Speaker 3: You know, are you thinking that longer term? You know,
Speaker 3: we're going to be facing this problem, you know, for
Speaker 3: a while.
Speaker 6: I do think it's going to be a long standing problem.
Speaker 5: That's not to say that the FED is going to
Speaker 5: give up on achieving that two percent goal. Share Poal
Speaker 5: was very clear at last month's press conference that two
Speaker 5: percent is the Fed's target. It's always been the target,
Speaker 5: and it does remain the target. That being said, longer term,
Speaker 5: the Fed may be willing to reevaluate that two percent target,
Speaker 5: and if it does prove to be a very onerous achievement,
Speaker 5: they may be willing to adjust that upwards. But right
Speaker 5: now they cannot adjust that mid cycle without potentially losing
Speaker 5: control over inflation expectations, which of course feed back into
Speaker 5: the direct inflation calculation.
Speaker 1: So we talk a lot about the fiscal story as
Speaker 1: well on this program, and with yields being elevated to
Speaker 1: the extent they are today, how much will that hinder
Speaker 1: the government's effort when we're talking about debt service that's
Speaker 1: going to be increased, I mean, and that's really maybe
Speaker 1: going to tie the hands of the government and trying
Speaker 1: to do more in certain areas of the economy.
Speaker 5: Well, as we know, debt but gets more debt, and
Speaker 5: with thirty four trillion at current levels, we would expect
Speaker 5: the treasury to have to massively increase issuance up and
Speaker 5: down the curve at presumably higher rates to entice investors
Speaker 5: into the market to buy said debt.
Speaker 6: But I'm not necessarily.
Speaker 5: Convinced that that's a negative in terms of controlling further
Speaker 5: expansion of the government's balance sheet, because if we do
Speaker 5: see further expenditures politics aside, social benefit, aside from the
Speaker 5: Fed's perspective, that could further potential inflationary implications.
Speaker 3: Well, given that fiscal largess that was deemed as pretty
Speaker 3: necessary because of the pandemic and other factors like the
Speaker 3: Ukraine War, also the reindustrialization of the American economy to
Speaker 3: create more jobs for people at home, could you see
Speaker 3: accepting slightly higher levels of inflation for a period of time,
Speaker 3: not forever, but for a few years.
Speaker 6: Well, we've already been in a few years of above
Speaker 6: target inflation, so I think at this point the American
Speaker 6: public is going to have a difficult time digesting further inflation.
Speaker 3: Yeah, could be enough is enough anyway, Lindsay, thank you
Speaker 3: very much for being with us. Lindsay pigs of their
Speaker 3: chief economist, dis Stiefel with us live here on the program,
Speaker 3: taking questions one after the other.
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Speaker 5: Two